iran – Radio Free https://www.radiofree.org Independent Media for People, Not Profits. Thu, 31 Jul 2025 17:15:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.radiofree.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/cropped-Radio-Free-Social-Icon-2-32x32.png iran – Radio Free https://www.radiofree.org 32 32 141331581 Iran arrests 98 ‘citizen-journalists’ for contact with UK-based outlet https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/31/iran-arrests-98-citizen-journalists-for-contact-with-uk-based-outlet/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/31/iran-arrests-98-citizen-journalists-for-contact-with-uk-based-outlet/#respond Thu, 31 Jul 2025 17:15:48 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=501850 Paris, July 31, 2025—The Committee to Protect Journalists calls on Iranian authorities to explain the grounds on which they have summoned and arrested 98 “so-called citizen-journalists” for having contact with a London-based Persian-language television channel.

“Iranian authorities must immediately clarify the legal basis for this mass detention of its citizens and cease treating those who communicate with the media as criminals,” said CPJ Chief Programs Officer Carlos Martinez de la Serna. “Labeling ordinary Iranians as ‘operational agents’ simply for their association with a news outlet is a dangerous tactic of intimidation and a blatant escalation in Iran’s violations of press freedom.

Iran’s intelligence ministry had been monitoring “the so-called citizen-journalists of the Zionist-Terrorist International Network” – a term the government uses to describe London-based Iran International – during the June 13 to 24 Iran-Israel war, state-owned Mehr News Agency reported. The ministry then “arrested and summoned 98 affiliated operational agents,” the agency said on July 28.

The ministry provided no evidence to support its allegations and did not disclose the names, locations, or legal status of those detained or summoned.

The Islamic Republic has previously arrested Iranians working with international media on vague charges, such as for “collaborating with hostile states” or “propaganda against the state.”

Iran’s reformist Ham Mihan newspaper reported that more than 100 journalists had been fired in the aftermath of the 12-day war, as authorities have cracked down on critical voices, with hundreds of arrests and several executions. 

CPJ emailed Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York for comment but received no response.


This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Staff.

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Iran’s plan to abandon GPS is more about a looming new ‘tech cold war’ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/28/irans-plan-to-abandon-gps-is-more-about-a-looming-new-tech-cold-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/28/irans-plan-to-abandon-gps-is-more-about-a-looming-new-tech-cold-war/#respond Mon, 28 Jul 2025 11:36:31 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=117924 COMMENTARY: By Jasim Al-Azzawi

For the past few years, governments across the world have paid close attention to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. There, it is said, we see the first glimpses of what warfare of the future will look like, not just in terms of weaponry, but also in terms of new technologies and tactics.

Most recently, the United States-Israeli attacks on Iran demonstrated not just new strategies of drone deployment and infiltration but also new vulnerabilities. During the 12-day conflict, Iran and vessels in the waters of the Gulf experienced repeated disruptions of GPS signal.

This clearly worried the Iranian authorities who, after the end of the war, began to look for alternatives.

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“At times, disruptions are created on this [GPS] system by internal systems, and this very issue has pushed us toward alternative options like BeiDou,” Ehsan Chitsaz, deputy communications minister, told Iranian media in mid-July. He added that the government was developing a plan to switch transportation, agriculture and the internet from GPS to BeiDou.

Iran’s decision to explore adopting China’s navigation satellite system may appear at first glance to be merely a tactical manoeuvre. Yet, its implications are far more profound. This move is yet another indication of a major global realignment.

For decades, the West, and the US in particular, have dominated the world’s technological infrastructure from computer operating systems and the internet to telecommunications and satellite networks.

This has left much of the world dependent on an infrastructure it cannot match or challenge. This dependency can easily become vulnerability. Since 2013, whistleblowers and media investigations have revealed how various Western technologies and schemes have enabled illicit surveillance and data gathering on a global scale — something that has worried governments around the world.

Clear message
Iran’s possible shift to BeiDou sends a clear message to other nations grappling with the delicate balance between technological convenience and strategic self-defence: The era of blind, naive dependence on US-controlled infrastructure is rapidly coming to an end. Nations can no longer afford to have their military capabilities and vital digital sovereignty tied to the satellite grid of a superpower they cannot trust.

This sentiment is one of the driving forces behind the creation of national or regional satellite navigation systems, from Europe’s Galileo to Russia’s GLONASS, each vying for a share of the global positioning market and offering a perceived guarantee of sovereign control.

GPS was not the only vulnerability Iran encountered during the US-Israeli attacks. The Israeli army was able to assassinate a number of nuclear scientists and senior commanders in the Iranian security and military forces. The fact that Israel was able to obtain their exact locations raised fears that it was able to infiltrate telecommunications and trace people via their phones.

On June 17 as the conflict was still raging, the Iranian authorities urged the Iranian people to stop using the messaging app WhatsApp and delete it from their phones, saying it was gathering user information to send to Israel.

Whether this appeal was linked to the assassinations of the senior officials is unclear, but Iranian mistrust of the app run by US-based corporation Meta is not without merit.

Cybersecurity experts have long been sceptical about the security of the app. Recently, media reports have revealed that the artificial intelligence software Israel uses to target Palestinians in Gaza is reportedly fed data from social media.

Furthermore, shortly after the end of the attacks on Iran, the US House of Representatives moved to ban WhatsApp from official devices.

Western platforms not trusted
For Iran and other countries around the world, the implications are clear: Western platforms can no longer be trusted as mere conduits for communication; they are now seen as tools in a broader digital intelligence war.

Tehran has already been developing its own intranet system, the National Information Network, which gives more control over internet use to state authorities. Moving forward, Iran will likely expand this process and possibly try to emulate China’s Great Firewall.

By seeking to break with Western-dominated infrastructure, Tehran is definitively aligning itself with a growing sphere of influence that fundamentally challenges Western dominance. This partnership transcends simple transactional exchanges as China offers Iran tools essential for genuine digital and strategic independence.

The broader context for this is China’s colossal Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While often framed as an infrastructure and trade project, BRI has always been about much more than roads and ports. It is an ambitious blueprint for building an alternative global order.

Iran — strategically positioned and a key energy supplier — is becoming an increasingly important partner in this expansive vision.

What we are witnessing is the emergence of a new powerful tech bloc — one that inextricably unites digital infrastructure with a shared sense of political defiance. Countries weary of the West’s double standards, unilateral sanctions and overwhelming digital hegemony will increasingly find both comfort and significant leverage in Beijing’s expanding clout.

This accelerating shift heralds the dawn of a new “tech cold war”, a low-temperature confrontation in which nations will increasingly choose their critical infrastructure, from navigation and communications to data flows and financial payment systems, not primarily based on technological superiority or comprehensive global coverage but increasingly on political allegiance and perceived security.

As more and more countries follow suit, the Western technological advantage will begin to shrink in real time, resulting in redesigned international power dynamics.

Jasim Al-Azzawi is an analyst, news anchor, programme presenter and media instructor. He has presented a weekly show called Inside Iraq.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Debunking Israeli Propaganda in Times of Genocide https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/26/debunking-israeli-propaganda-in-times-of-genocide/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/26/debunking-israeli-propaganda-in-times-of-genocide/#respond Sat, 26 Jul 2025 15:02:39 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=160215 We live in interesting but brutal times. It is evident that myths are biting the dust with long held narratives dissolving when exposed to the harsh and bloody reality. Nowhere is this more evident than with all the myths that propped up Israel for many decades. Israel was portrayed as a fragile yet resilient little […]

The post Debunking Israeli Propaganda in Times of Genocide first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
We live in interesting but brutal times. It is evident that myths are biting the dust with long held narratives dissolving when exposed to the harsh and bloody reality. Nowhere is this more evident than with all the myths that propped up Israel for many decades. Israel was portrayed as a fragile yet resilient little country living in a “bad neighbourhood.” But now, given Israel’s incessant wars, much of this mythology is being jettisoned; it is no longer needed when arrogance, hubris and sadism drive the Israeli ethos. The image of the little David is giving way to a vengeful genocidal creature infused with a dash of the Old Testament….

Below is a discussion of some of the collapsing myths. Myths are built on narratives which in turn are built on descriptive words. Much of the discussion centres around clarifying the deceptive nature of words, which in turn will expose the false narratives.

Rabble really

The army is venerated in Israel, and a lot of effort is put into glorifying the military; there are festivals with singers, balloons, and blue and white pom-poms galore.1 American Jewish girls go giddy when meeting the tanned and smiling soldiers. Of course, if one glorifies the military, then all the units can only be “élite”; even the lowliest soldier is given a sergeant rank; and of course they must be “the most moral ” in the world. It is also known by its incongruous acronym: IDF.

Contrast the glamorous image of the Israeli military with its actions in Gaza, West Bank and beyond. Israeli snipers are targeting children – extra-points for pregnant women (you can even purchase a T-shirt with “one shot, two kills ” logo on it). Soldiers are cheering when blowing up hospitals, universities, mosques, schools,…. it is no secret, it is all visible in Telegram videos or on Al_Jazeera’s newscasts. To make matters worse, GHF, the so-called Israeli “humanitarian ” group, dispenses food and water in Gaza today in such a way as to concentrate refugees, and then target them.2 Soldiers are looting everywhere, and even one unit has been set up with the express intention of looting areas they’ve conquered. Looting is tolerated throughout, and even made part of its tactics on the ground.3

The Israeli military is engaged in genocide and doesn’t hide the fact. Groups of soldiers engaged in ecstatic dancing chanting “death to the Amalek ” – a biblical term for the one to be killed en masse; including women and children.4 Early in October 2023, the Israeli military put a 95-year-old veteran of the infamous 1948 massacres on tour to lecture the soldiers. Dressed in a military uniform, he engaged in some motivational speeches: “Be triumphant and finish them off and don’t leave anyone behind. Erase the memory of them. Erase them, their families, mothers and children. These animals can no longer live.”5 The pronouncements made by the military official rabbis are even worse. And one cannot forget (former Minister of Defence) Yoav Gallant’s statement: “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly.”6

The Israeli airforce regularly drops huge bombs in the middle of densely populated refugee camps. According to Euromed, the total number of bombs dropped on Gaza are equivalent to all the bombs dropped on several of the major cities during WWII. And in order not to waste bombs, Israeli warplanes which couldn’t drop their ordnance in Iran during the June 2025 attack were instructed to bomb Gaza. Israelis also never miss an opportunity to profit from such events; Israelis flock to the border area to sit on sofas to witness the bombing spectacle. These war tourists have to pay extra for a cappuccino.

Israeli sadism only escalates; everyday there must be a new turn of the screw – it is not satisfied with merely bombing or shooting civilians. The latest Israeli military order is that from now on Palestinians will not be allowed to bathe in the sea.7 Israeli snipers, warships… will target civilians entering the sea. One Telegram video shows a gleeful Israeli soldier using mortar bombs to target civilians sitting on a beach.

The Israeli military used to be well organised and soldiers operated on the basis of strict orders. Today, the ethical rot has set in at all levels. Officers and lower soldiers alike murder, steal, torture everywhere. Soldiers perpetrate heinous crimes in full camera view, yet the perpetrators expect full impunity.

Simply put: the Israeli military can no longer be referred to as an army, but it must be described for what it actually is: a criminal rabble.

Israeli way of war

Israelis like to say that they “live in a bad neighbourhood.” In fact, it is so bad that Israel has bombed most of its neighbouring countries numerous times and attempted to murder most of the leadership in those countries.8 “Decapitation strikes” are deemed a great success and yet another proof of the Israeli cunning and prowess. Another target are the potential or actual negotiators. The Israeli military has murdered several negotiators in Lebanon, Gaza, Tehran (Ismael Haniyeh), and during the June 2025 attack against Iran the lead negotiator with the Americans was also murdered. And then Israel declares “ceasefires ” that impose conditions on the victims, but Israel continues to murder and bomb – there have been over 1,000 violations of the so-called ceasefire in Lebanon. Drones and warplanes fly overhead without regard to any declared ceasefire. Maybe all this is not surprising given the official Israeli (especially Netanyahu’s) disdain for “peace” which is considered to be a dirty word; they prefer “conflict management.” Ceasefires are merely meant to provide time for the Israeli military to reorganise and then bomb and murder in their “business as usual” fashion.

The Israeli military’s brutality even gets pompous sounding names like the Dahiya Doctrine. This refers to the levelling of the Dahiya neighbourhood in Beirut 2006 – it is a disproportionate level of violence “in response” to Hezbollah daring to resist the Israeli attack. And of course, Israelis justify this by seeking to reestablish “deterrence” which is yet another fraudulent military concept.9 But then the Israeli military applies other fraudulent and morally reprehensible doctrines, e.g., the Hannibal directive. This directive orders the Israeli military to kill Israeli Jews who may have been captured by Palestinians or other enemies. Officials prefer to kill Israelis rather than to have them taken as hostages. In fact, about half of the Israeli civilians killed on 7 October 2023 were killed by the Israeli military.10

The Israeli military justifies its actions because it is “at war.” The resistance in Gaza has no tanks, airplanes, etc. Thus the best equipped army in the world is attacking a mostly defenceless population; maybe it is a bit of a stretch to call this a “war.” Norman Finkelstein, the great historian, once made the same point and suggested that the Israeli “mowing the lawn ” attacks should be referred to as “massacres.” That is a rather more accurate and succinct descriptor; in the current historical context “genocidal actions” is perhaps more accurate.

Squatters really

A mythology surrounding the early Israeli colonists became pervasive early on. The brave sun tanned pioneers were “making the desert bloom”11 conveying the notion that they were just taking over empty and unproductive land. The word that went along with this myth was that the Jewish interlopers were “settlers ” – another rather neutral word that has no association with the native population they came to displace. For some time while communal living had romantic appeal, settlers lived in kibbutzim. Young Europeans would flock to experience this only to find out a less glamorous picture often involving corruption and sexual abuse.12

After the 1940s, the program of ethnic cleansing saw hundreds of Palestinian towns and villages razed to the ground or simply taken over. Many Israelis took over houses and even helped themselves to furniture, carpets, etc. The takeover of houses is an on-going project with zealot usurpers using advanced mapping technology to target houses, especially in East Jerusalem. While a Palestinian family is out of a house doing normal daily chores, they find upon their return that their house has been taken over, and it is impossible to eject the squatters because the police sides with the latter.

During the late 1960s and early 1970s saw a wave of land confiscation in the West Bank, and the building of “settlements ” on top of hills. The real zealots went to Al Khalil/Hebron to take over houses, hotels, and other buildings.13 They even set about closing off streets so they could go undisturbed to the Ibrahimi mosque which also had been usurped by the zealots. The zealots’ aim is to constantly steal houses, and to make the life of ordinary Palestinians intolerable.

Other settlements were built as suburbs of Jerusalem or as cities with all the amenities provided at subsidised rates. Purpose-built “apartheid” roads connected these developments to the main Israeli cities, but also were meant to sever the links between Palestinian communities. And although the residents of such places are portrayed as mere suburbanites, they often clash with Palestinians when they seek to annex more land. Although annexation is such a neutral word, it hides the violence dispensed by the suburbanites to achieve their aims. The Jews recently arrived from Venezuela sought to expand the borders of their development and requested the zealots to do the dirty violent work.14 The condition for this assistance was that new arrivals would also participate in the violent eviction and usurpation of the neighbouring Palestinian land. Even the “suburbanites ” participate in violence; the soldiers are on standby to protect the usurpers.

It is important to avoid propaganda-tainted language, and to use words that clearly describe a reality and associated power relationships. For this reason many words cry out for an alternative description. The word “settler” demands a more accurate substitution, and the word “squatter” would certainly be a more suitable and accurate descriptor. It is time to stop calling the armed violent young men who harass and brutalise Palestinians in the West Bank “settlers”!

Where has “proper” gone?

Israel always has been a country with flexible and expanding borders. Yet, when it suited them, they would make a distinction between “Israel proper” and the occupied areas. The implication was that there could be negotiations regarding the occupied areas, there couldn’t possibly be negotiations about anything in Israel proper – this was conceded land, and there was nothing to talk about. And the “proper” areas expanded! After the wars of 1948, 1967, 2006… the borders of Israel “proper” expanded to incorporate newly stolen land.15 What the current batch of wars have revealed is that there is no more talk about “Israel proper”, and the reason for that is that Israel is expanding at present – stealing land in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank. While the borders keep expanding, the “proper” hasn’t incorporated the newly usurped land.

A feature of the “Israel proper” concept is that Israel desires to have buffer zones or no-man’s land between its “recognised” borders and its neighbours. But the buffer zones have to be on Lebanese or Syrian soil; the buffer is never on the Israeli side. The Israeli military has created a no-man’s land on the border with Gaza, but all the bulldozed land and acreage sprayed with herbicide is on the Palestinian side of the military-imposed border. And if the UN feels that it needs to conduct some face-saving military patrols, then the UN can defend Israel by sitting in the Lebanese “buffer zone”; UNIFIL shouldn’t even dream of sitting right on the border or having its soldiers cross into Israel for some R&R.

Never again?

All western societies have been indoctrinated with holocaust mythology; one constant refrain has been “never again”. Fair enough. But if any lessons were learnt then this slogan should apply to all; it should read Never again for Everybody. The Gazan population certainly should not be the victim of genocide today – yet there is no doubt that that is exactly what is going on. A brief perusal of the so-called “holocaust studies centres” around the world reveal that they have been silent during this period – they are immersed in studying the 1940s; there seem to be no lessons for the current situation. One such centre features a large “Find memory; Find humanity” slogan on its website, yet (July 2025) has absolutely nothing to say about the genocide in Gaza. It is all about selective memory and humanity.

Pogroms were violent attacks against a religious or ethnic group in the Russian Empire and usually depicted as criminal in nature. Yet today young armed Israeli Jews regularly invade Palestinian villages and towns and brutalise or murder the native population. If violence was deemed intolerable in the past, then why the silence about the ongoing pogroms in the West Bank today?

Careful what you wish for

Several so-called influencers, the contemptible creatures appearing on TikTok/Instagram, etc., called for genocide in Gaza. One of the influencers went so far as to state that if there were a button to get rid of all the Palestinians, he would press the button.16The calls for genocide are also commonly found at the podium of the Knesset. The wife of an Israeli soldier, hysterically shouted from podium not to let the sacrifice of her husband’s effort (having to work overtime) be wasted, and thus “don’t stop before…” the Israeli army exterminates all Palestinians.17

Israeli society is rather warped, and it is constantly polled about all sorts of unusual issues. One of the recent questions was “are Palestinian children in Gaza innocent?” 75% of the respondents said “no.” In one motivational speech given to the soldiers about to invade Gaza, a high ranking officer also stated “the children are not innocent” – this follows Deuteronomy’s edict to kill the women and the children.

After the first hearing about Gaza was held at the ICJ (26 January 2024) at a demonstration in London, dozens of counter-demonstrators wearing Israeli flag capes were chanting “no ceasefire.” By this time several hospitals and universities had already been destroyed. Is this what the counter-demonstrators wished to continue?

Maybe a thought experiment will demonstrate the extreme hypocrisy of these influencers and counter-demonstrators. Imagine that a Palestinian influencer were to ask for a button get rid of all Israeli Jews, or that a Palestinian politician were to utter a similar statement. What do you think the reaction would be? The ultimate hypocrisy is for Jews who bow to the mere mention of the holocaust to call for genocide against Palestinians.

While the London police did nothing to suppress the counter-demonstrators yelling support for the genocide, they do actively suppress pro-Palestinian statements against the genocide! In a recent video, the police in Scotland are even tearing down Palestinian flags.18 And in the US, Trump is actually suppressing all protests and commentary against Israeli brutality by labelling it as antisemitism.

My holy vs. your holy

About one thousand mosques and several churches have been obliterated since 2023.19 Some of the mosques/churches were centuries old and could be deemed cultural heritage sites – of course, they didn’t receive a UNESCO label because Israel blocked such designations.20 The media tends to ignore the destruction of mosques or refers to Israeli justifications for their destruction. The few christian churches bombed in Gaza did elicit mention, and after the bombing of a Catholic church even Pope Leo XIV stated that “he was deeply saddened…” by the loss of life.21 What makes the Pope’s comment memorable is the fact that he didn’t mention that it was Israel that bombed the church. Anonymous bombs just seem to fall out of the sky.

While the intentional destruction of Palestinian holy sites or mosques doesn’t seem to merit any mention, when a synagogue is damaged this elicits a major outcry. But to highlight the double standard, the establishment of a synagogue, or purportedly finding a reference to a Tomb or mere place of sojourn by a well known rabbi, then Israeli Jews consider this to be a claim to the land. Thus an enterprising religious scholar found a reference to a Tomb of Rabbi Ashi in Lebanon, then this became a land claim.22 Israelis grab any justification to steal yet more land however flimsy the claim to the land may be.

Mind their comfort please

The many wars that Israel has waged recently have outraged many around the world giving rise to demonstrations and the like. Yet, the frequent media concern is with the “comfort ” of Jews witnessing the demonstrations! Although Israel is conducting a genocide, Jews should feel comfortable and not reminded of sordid events. Even a bake sale meant to raise funds for Gaza was deemed to interfere with Jewish comfort.23 Did white South Africans living in Europe object to anti-apartheid demonstrations on the basis that it made them feel uncomfortable? Fat chance! However, in the current context several governments have appointed “anti-semitism ambassadors ” who will work to ban demonstrations or manifestations of support for the Palestinians. Maybe a case can be made that supporters of the Israeli genocide in Gaza or the unprovoked attack against Iran should be made to feel uncomfortable.

Western values and Israel

Much is made of “western values” purportedly freedom of speech, association, respect for the rule of law, and respecting immigrants. These values are what makes Europe a “garden” and everywhere else a “jungle.”24 These values have also been used to justify the continued EU assistance to Ukraine, and thus war. Russia has invariably been castigated for not observing “western norms.” But, when it comes to genocidal Israel and its violent tendencies, the same insufferable politicians are silent or connive to send weapons and assistance to Israel.

Europe is meant to absorb huge migrant flows, yet Israel imposes a discriminatory migrant policy – only Jews need to apply. Israel’s incessant wars are creating migrant flows that inevitably end in Europe, and no European official seems willing to point this out. What we witness instead is that European officials travel to Egypt to offer enticements for Egypt to absorb Palestinian refugees; a few years ago the same gang offered several billion Euros to Erdogan to reduce the Syrian and Iraqi migrant flows.

Myopic history

Reading the mainstream media one would get the impression that Palestinian history started on 7 October 2023. Everything before that doesn’t seem to merit mentioning. All the “mowing the lawn” military operations aren’t a thing of the past, they are in a memory hole. The Goldstone report documenting the mass crimes committed in 2009 is also in the memory hole. Of course, it is too much to expect the mainstream media to even mention relevant history that goes back a few more years. The media don’t report on the caged nature of Gaza, surrounded by razor wire and watchtowers. And as Dov Weissglas, the advisor to Ariel Sharon, stated the residents of Gaza would be kept “on a diet” – that is, Israeli bureaucrats would calculate the minimum caloric intake needed to survive, and they would allow just this amount of aid to trickle into Gaza.

Watch our words!

While it is important to use accurate words to describe Israeli state policy, it is also important for pro-Palestinian activists to change the words they use to refer to the current reality. One finds that the word “occupation” is used often to describe the Israeli military, and even to the extent that it is used as a synonym. Similarly, the “apartheid” descriptor is used without much reflection, e.g., apartheid wall, apartheid roads, etc. Both occupation and apartheid indicate a co-existence with the native population. Apartheid meant coexisting economically, but living separately – there was an interaction between blacks and whites. The word occupation suggests that it is temporary, and that interaction is possible. But the genocide in Gaza indicates that Israel prefers erasing the Palestinians, and that way ending the occupation. The three strategists drawing up the path of the wall built in the West Bank were explicit about the temporary nature of the structure. It would remain in place to control the Palestinian population, but they foresaw that the wall will be removed once the Palestinian population has been expelled.

There is another problem with the word “apartheid.” While much effort was placed to declare that Israel was guilty of the “crime of apartheid,” it only referred to the “occupied territories.” The third class status of Palestinians living in Israel was unmentionable to those drawing up the legal case. Apartheid was deemed a crime on one side of the line, but just fine on the other side (in “Israel proper”).

Worse than 1960s apartheid in South Africa

The so-called West slowly adopted some sanctions and divestment of South Africa beginning in the 1970s; the public had engaged in some form of boycott of South African products before that. Ronnie Kasrils, the great anti-apartheid fighter and member of the African National Congress, stated that the situation now for the Palestinians is worse than that experienced by the black population at the height of the oppressive apartheid years. While Western countries grudgingly sanctioned and divested from South Africa, one wonders when will there be some official opposition to Israel’s genocidal actions.

Tough times for the propagandists

The Israelis and their supporters spent much effort painting Israel as a valiant little country trying to become a success story surrounded by hostile neighbours. Israelis were portrayed as pioneers thriving despite the odds. The propagandists working for Israel had appropriated victimhood, and justified Israel’s actions as “self defence.” Alas, all this mythology has been ruined because Israeli officialdom chose to wage wars, expel the native population, commit genocide in Gaza, attack Iran, attack Yemen, and steal yet more land from its neighbours. It requires more than lipstick to doll up this pig. Today Israeli propaganda relies on threats, and strong armed techniques to censor and muzzle dissent. Much of this is done by control over the media which seems to work in tandem with Israeli propagandists. Student protestors are threatened and even imprisoned; conscientious journalists are fired….

For all moral world citizens, the task is to oppose all the ghastly things Israel does every day, to reject their sorry justifications ( “self defence”); reject the portrayal of Israel’s proclaimed enemies (demonising Hamas, and the Palestinians in general); reject the portrayal of the Israeli military (why should anyone want to be an “ally” of this country?), reject Israel as a ethnocracy where rights and status are determined by whether or not one is Jewish (reject “Jewish democracy” if it excludes or discriminates against segment of the population; it is not much different from “white democracy” during South Africa’s apartheid years). In many ways, if one appeals to “western values”, the mantra often repeated by western officialdom, then one must also be willing to judge Israeli’s actions and institutions by the same standard. Just because Israel holds a gay pride parade doesn’t make them a beacon of shared values. Our opposition can start with acts as simple as challenging the manager of our local supermarket why they stock Israeli avocados and oranges; indeed, the boycott against apartheid in South Africa started by boycotting their oranges. But these are small steps when bolder action is needed – it is long overdue.

Notes:

The post Debunking Israeli Propaganda in Times of Genocide first appeared on Dissident Voice.
1    Erin Axelman and Sam Eilertsen’s Israelism shows this cultural phenomenon.
2    Nir Hasson, Yaniv Kubovich and Bar Peleg, “’It’s a Killing Field’: IDF Soldiers Ordered to Shoot Deliberately at Unarmed Gazans Waiting for Humanitarian Aid,” Haaretz, 27 June 2025.
3    MEE Staff, “Report reveals vast loot Israeli soldiers took from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria,” Middle East Eye, 28 February 2025. And Oren Ziv, “Rugs, cosmetics, motorbikes: Israeli soldiers are looting Gaza homes en masse,” +972 Magazine, 20 February 2024.
4    Evidence presented in January 2024 at the ICJ.
5    Rayhan Uddin, “Israel-Palestine war: Israeli veteran, 95, rallies troops to ‘erase’ Palestinian children”, Middle East Eye, 14 October 2023.
6    For a collection of genocidal statements made by Israeli officials or members of the Knesset see: “Specific Intent of Genocide: Statements made by Israeli officials indicating their clear intent to exterminate Palestinians in the Gaza Strip,” Euromed, 21 Oct 2024. A much longer list could be obtained by quoting influential rabbis in Israel.
7    Nagham Zbeedat, “’Are They Going to Ban the Air Next?’ | IDF Reiterates Ban on Gazans Entering the Sea, Last Remaining Source of Relief for Many Palestinians”, Haaretz, 13 July 2025.
8    At last count ten countries in the area had been bombed; the most recent ones are Iran and Yemen. Imagine if, say, Belgium, didn’t get along with its neighbours, and set about bombing them to the same extent – this would require bombing all of Europe.
9    The great scientist and organiser of Peace Studies programs, Anatol Rapoport, stated that the notion of deterrence is a sham because it fails due to a fallacy of composition (post hoc, propter ergo hoc). Deterrence is like the talisman effect. That is, a man was wearing a large talisman, and had this exchange with his friend:
“why are you wearing that talisman?”
“it is to keep the elephants at bay!”
“But I see no elephants.”
“You see, the talisman works!”
10    Yaniv Kubovich, “IDF Ordered Hannibal Directive on October 7 to Prevent Hamas Taking Soldiers Captive”, Haaretz, 7 July 2024. Subtitle: “there was crazy hysteria, and decisions started being made without verified information: Documents and testimonies obtained by Haaretz reveal the Hannibal operational order, which directs the use of force to prevent soldiers being taken into captivity, was employed at three army facilities infiltrated by Hamas, potentially endangering civilians as well.”
11    The “making the desert bloom” sham is wonderfully exposed in Michel Khleifi and Eyal Sivan’s “Route 181: Fragments of a Journey in Palestine-Israel”, 2003.
12     The late Israel Shahak exposed the kibbutz sham. He revealed in one of his lectures the exploitative nature of the kibbutz, the fact Palestinian labourers wouldn’t be hired, and the sexual harassment of the volunteers. Often the kibbutzim were built on stolen Palestinian land.
13    One should read about rabbi Moshe Levinger and his zealot followers to appreciate the level of brutality involved in stealing Palestinian land.
14    Article in Haaretz, but unfortunately the link to the article has expired.
15    When the Israel-Hezbollah 2006 war ended, Israeli engineering units moved the razor wire fences several hundred meters into Lebanese territory. A few days later a United Nations surveyor entered the coordinates of the fence to demarcate the newly UN approved border – it is called the Blue Line.
16    Here is one example, “Two Nice Jewish Boys” advocating for genocide in Gaza.
17    t.me/mintpress_news/7228
18    Craig Murray, “The Big Chill,” Craig Murray’s website, 17 July 2025. View the video at the bottom of the article.
19    Indlieb Farazi Saber, “A ‘cultural genocide’: Which of Gaza’s heritage sites have been destroyed?”, Al Jazeera, 14 January 2024.
20    UNESCO members who vote for the heritage site designations must be UN-states, and since the Palestinians aren’t a state, they have no standing at the UNESCO deliberations. There have been appeals to include the Church of the Nativity, Al Aqsa mosque, and a few others, but they all were blocked by the Israelis. Source: UNESCO official talking at SOAS, a university in London.
21    Ayah El-Khaldi, “Pope Leo under fire for ‘vague’ statement on Israel’s bombing of Gaza Catholic church”, Middle East Eye, 18 July 2025.
22    “Israeli settlers storm purported rabbi’s shrine in Lebanon”, Middle East Eye, 7 March 2025.
23    James Crisp, Bake sales for Gaza could stoke Jew hatred, EU warns
Fundraisers for Gaza make ‘Jews feel uncomfortable’, says Europe’s anti-Semitism tsar, 14 July 2025.
24    Just to borrow from a statement made by Josep Borrell, the former Foreign Minister of the EU.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Paul de Rooij.

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America’s Opinion Pages Overwhelmingly Supported Trump’s Attack on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/25/americas-opinion-pages-overwhelmingly-supported-trumps-attack-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/25/americas-opinion-pages-overwhelmingly-supported-trumps-attack-on-iran/#respond Fri, 25 Jul 2025 21:47:57 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9046704 In the four days of coverage after President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iran (6/21–24/25), the New York Times, USA Today, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post responded with 36 opinion pieces and editorials. Almost half of these, 17, explicitly supported the illegal bombing, while only 7 (19%) took an overall critical view of the strikes—none of them in the Journal or the Post.

Of the critical pieces, only three (one in the Times and two in USA Today) opposed the idea on legal or moral grounds, challenging the idea that the United States has a right to attack a country that had not attacked it.

This opposition rate of less than a fifth is in stark contrast to US public opinion on the matter, which showed that 56% of Americans opposed Trump’s bombing. Why wasn’t this reflected in the range of opinions presented by America’s top press outlets? These numbers highlight just how poorly represented the views of the public are in elite media.

‘Trump’s courageous and correct decision’

NYT: Trump’s Courageous and Correct Decision

Bret Stephens (New York Times, 6/22/25) argued that bombing Iran without any evidence the country intended to build a nuclear weapon was “the essence of statesmanship.”

FAIR looked at all opinion pieces in the four papers that addressed Trump’s strikes on Iran, from June 21 through June 24. Forty-seven percent (17) explicitly praised Trump’s unauthorized act of war.

Many of these cheered the aggressive assertion of US power. The New York Times’ Bret Stephens (6/22/25) lauded “Trump’s Courageous and Correct Decision,” which “deserves respect, no matter how one feels about this president and the rest of his policies.” At the Washington Post, David Ignatius (6/22/25) offered similar praise under the headline, “Trump’s Iran Strike Was Clear and Bold,” and the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board (6/22/25) declared, “Trump Meets the Moment on Iran.”

USA Today (6/22/25) published columnist Nicole Russell’s “Trump Warned Iran. Then He Acted Boldly to Protect America.” The headline was later changed to an even more laudatory: “Trump Was Right to Bomb Iran. Even Democrats Will Be Safer Because of It.”  In a Wall Street Journal guest column (6/24/25), Karen Elliott House celebrated the “restor[ation] of US deterrence and credibility.”

Some directly attempted to defend the strikes’ legality. In a Post guest column (6/23/25), Geoffrey Corn, Claire Finkelstein and Orde Kittrie claimed to explain “Why Trump Didn’t Have to Ask Congress Before Striking Iran.” The piece relied extensively on the playground rhetorical tool of if they did it, why can’t I?, confidently listing earlier US presidents’ attacks that defied constitutional law, as if past violations justify the current one.

They asserted that “the operation also derives support from international law as an exercise of collective self-defense in defense of Israel,” ignoring the fact that international law does not allow you to “defend” yourself against a country that hasn’t attacked you—let alone the illogical formulation of the US engaging in “self-defense” on behalf of another country.

WSJ: U.S. Credibility Returns to the Middle East

For the Wall Street Journal‘s art department (6/24/25), war is peace.

USA Today columnist Dace Potas (6/22/25), who called the attacks “strategically the right move and a just action,” also defended the constitutionality of Trump’s strikes, attacking Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s call to impeach Trump over the strikes:

If the president is not able to respond to a hostile regime building weapons that could destroy entire American cities, then I’m not sure what else, short of an actual invasion of the homeland, would allow for him to act.

That’s the thing about self-defense, though—it’s supposed to involve an attack.

Journal columnist Gerard Baker (6/23/25), who called the attack “judicious and pragmatic,” likewise pointed to Iran’s nuclear program, claiming that “no one seriously doubts the Iran nuclear threat”—despite both US intelligence and the International Agency for Atomic Energy concluding otherwise.

Yet another angle came from Times columnist Thomas Friedman (6/22/25), who argued that the “Attacks on Iran Are Part of a Much Bigger Global Struggle”—between the forces of “inclusion,” who believe in “more decent, if not democratic, governance,” and the forces of “resistance,” who “thrive on resisting those trends because conflict enables them to keep their people down.” Friedman called Trump’s strikes “necessary” for the right side to “triumph” in this good-vs-evil struggle.

Questions without criticism

NYT: We Have No Idea Where This War Will Go

The New York Times (6/22/25) figures you can’t go wrong by asserting total ignorance.

Of the remaining opinion pieces, ten accepted the strikes as a fait accompli and offered analysis that mostly speculated about the future and offered no anti-bombing pushback.

For instance, the Wall Street Journal published a commentary (6/23/25) asking “Can Iran Strike Back Effectively?” A New York Times op-ed (6/22/25) by security consultant Colin P. Clarke speculated about “How Iran Might Strike Back.”

The Times also published columnist W.J. Hennigan’s piece (6/22/25) that warned that “We Have No Idea Where This War Will Go.” Hennigan speculated: “It’s almost certain we haven’t seen the end of US military action in this war,” but he did not indicate whether this might be a good or bad thing.

Others were slightly more wary, such as a Times op-ed (6/23/25) headlined “What Bombs Can’t Do In Iran.” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Karim Sadjadpour asked, “Will this extraordinary act of war strengthen Tehran’s authoritarians or hasten their demise?” Sadjadpour tells readers that “while military strikes may expose an authoritarian regime’s weaknesses, they rarely create the conditions necessary for lasting democratic change”—yet he offers support for both possible outcomes.

Similarly, the Washington Post (6/22/25) published a triple-bylined opinion piece debating the question: “Will the US/Iran Conflict Spin Out of Control?” Participant Jason Rezaian did not criticize the bombing itself, only the lack of strategy around it, judging that Trump’s idea of “decimating Iran’s defenses and then letting them stay in power to terrorize their citizens, dissidents and opponents around the world would be a massive failure” and concluding, “my concern is that there is no plan to speak of.”

Attacking Trump, supporting war

USA Today: Why did US bomb Iran? In Trump's vibes war, it's impossible to trust anyone.

Criticizing Donald Trump’s decision-making process, USA Today‘s Rex Huppke (6/22/25) assures readers that “of course” he hopes the bombing of Iran is “successful.”

Of the seven articles that criticized Trump’s actions, more were critical of Trump and his personality or disregard of procedure than were opposed to the illegal and aggressive actions of an empire. Three of these came from USA Today’s Rex Huppke. His first column (6/21/25) argued that “Trump may have just hurled America into war because he was mad nobody liked his recent military parade.”

His second piece (6/22/25) accused Trump of starting the war based on “vibes,” and rightly attacked the credibility of the administration, citing the numerous contradictory or false statements from US and Israeli officials. However, that column made it clear that Huppke hoped for a successful strike on Iran, even as he acknowledged it could end in “disaster”:

If Trump’s bombing of Iran proves successful—and I, of course, hope it does—it’ll be dumb luck. But if it leads to disaster, it’ll be exactly what anyone paying attention to these reckless hucksters predicted.

At the New York Times, former Biden Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrote a guest column (6/24/25) under the headline: “Trump’s Iran Strike Was a Mistake. I Hope It Succeeds.” Blinken’s primary issue with Trump’s attack was that Blinken deemed it ineffective; his secondary concern was that his own State Department achievements were being overlooked: “Mr. Trump’s actions were possible only because of the work of the Obama and Biden administrations.”

‘International authoritarianism’

NYT: Trump’s Strikes on Iran Were Unlawful. Here’s Why That Matters.

It’s telling that a piece (New York Times, 6/23/25) arguing that Trump’s airstrikes were illegal has to go on to explain why that’s bad.

Of the 36 editorials and opinion pieces published by the top papers on the Iran bombing, only three (8%) explicitly opposed the bombing on legal or moral grounds. The New York Times and USA Today ran opinions grounded in legal arguments. USA Today also published human rights attorney Yasmin Z. Vafa on the human toll of this war on the citizens of Iran.

In her Times op-ed (6/23/25), Yale Law School professor Oona A. Hathaway points out that the attacks were not only unconstitutional, but in violation of international law, as Trump did not seek approval from either Congress or the UN Security Council. Hathaway was the sole opinion writer to describe Trump’s illegal actions with the same diction usually reserved for America’s enemies:

The seeming rise of authoritarianism at home is precipitating a kind of international authoritarianism, in which the American president can unleash the most powerful military the world has ever known on a whim.

USA Today‘s Chris Brennan (6/24/25) also emphasized Trump’s lack of congressional approval under the headline: “There’s a Legal Way to Go to War. Trump Flouting the Constitution Isn’t It.”

The same day in USA Today (6/24/25), Vafa—an Iranian refugee herself—brought a human angle to this conflict that is unfortunately hard to come by in the top papers’ pages. She wrote: “This kind of violence doesn’t happen in theory. It happens in living rooms. In kitchens. In schoolyards and in hospitals.”

Vafa not only raised the US’s history of destabilization in the Middle East, she also contextualized these kinds of attacks’ role in creating the refugee crises that right-wingers then use to create moral panics. “We are here because you were there,” she wrote.

The people speak 

NYT: The Consequences of U.S. Strikes in Iran

The New York Times letters page (6/22/25) once again demonstrated that the paper is well to the right of its readership.

The New York Times (6/22/25) did publish a series of letters to the editor from their readers on “The Consequences of US Strikes in Iran.” Unlike the professional columnists, many of these readers were explicitly against the bombing. One letter began: “Once again our government has launched a war against a nation that has not attacked the United States.”

Another writer wrote:

Whether President Trump’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities has postponed one danger or not, it has surely destroyed the effort to limit nuclear proliferation. The damage is incalculable.

Another wrote: “By crossing the line and attacking Iran, the United States should not be under the misconception that it has made a step toward peace.”

In fact, the only pro-bombing letter the Times published in the package was not written by an average citizen, but by Aviva Klompas, identified by the Times as “a former speechwriter for Israel.”

The Big Lie this time

Every big US aggression is sold by a Big Lie, told over and over again by policy makers and repeated ad nauseam in the press. US interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Ukraine have all been sold to the public based on Big Lies.

This time for US newspaper columnists, the Big Lie is twofold: firstly, that Iran was rejecting negotiations in favor of building a bomb; secondly, that Iran wants to build a bomb to destroy Israel. These lies rely not only on ignorance, but also on a media apparatus that repeats them until they’re accepted as an uncontested premise for all discussion.

As FAIR (10/17/17, 6/23/25) has described in the past, these claims have no basis in fact. Iran, which has long been in favor of a nuclear weapons–free Middle East, has  attempted to negotiate a stable deal with the West for over a decade. Hindering this are Israel’s insistence on its undeclared nuclear arsenal, as well as both Trump and Biden’s rejection of the deal negotiated under Obama. Even if that weren’t the case, there’s no indication whatsoever that Iran, should it produce a nuclear bomb, would commit national suicide by attacking Israel with it.

These misrepresentations are made all the more egregious by the fact that there is a Mideastern country that has rejected the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which occupies neighboring lands under military dictatorship, regularly attacks and violates treaties with its neighbors, has proven repeatedly to be a bad-faith negotiator, is currently committing an internationally recognized genocide, and does all this in the name of rights given to them by God. That country is Israel. If the columnists at leading US newspapers had any consistency, they would be calling for Trump to launch a surprise attack on Israel’s nuclear facilities and stockpiles.

But they don’t do this, because they either don’t know or don’t care about the relevant history. They’re all willing to uncritically manufacture consent for the US empire.


This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Bryce Greene.

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Can Iran Use Sectarian Violence In Syria To Mount A Comeback? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/23/can-iran-use-sectarian-violence-in-syria-to-mount-a-comeback/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/23/can-iran-use-sectarian-violence-in-syria-to-mount-a-comeback/#respond Wed, 23 Jul 2025 14:43:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=75d981f509c01e5dcc635f059780016d
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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Trump’s Latin American Policies Go South https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/23/trumps-latin-american-policies-go-south/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/23/trumps-latin-american-policies-go-south/#respond Wed, 23 Jul 2025 14:00:03 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=160123 With the Trump imperium passing the half-year mark, the posture of the US empire is ever clearer. Whether animated by “America First” or globalism, the objective remains “full spectrum dominance.” And now with the neocon capture of the Democrats, there are no guardrails from the so-called opposition party. Call it the “new cold war,” the […]

The post Trump’s Latin American Policies Go South first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
With the Trump imperium passing the half-year mark, the posture of the US empire is ever clearer. Whether animated by “America First” or globalism, the objective remains “full spectrum dominance.” And now with the neocon capture of the Democrats, there are no guardrails from the so-called opposition party.

Call it the “new cold war,” the “beginning of World War III,” or – in Trump’s words – “endless war,” this is the era that the world has entered. The US/Zionist war against Iran has paused, but no one has any illusions that it is over. And it won’t likely be resolved until one side decisively and totally prevails. Ditto for the proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Likely the same with Palestine, where the barbarity of war worsened to genocide. Meanwhile, since Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” the empire is building up for war with China.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the empire’s war on the world assumes a hybrid form. The carnage is less apparent because the weapons take the form of “soft power” – sanctions, tariffs, and deportations. These can have the same lethal consequences as bombs, only less overt.

Making the world unsafe for socialism

Some Western leftists vilify the defensive measures that Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua must take to protect themselves from the empire’s regime-change schemes. In contrast, Washington clearly understands that these countries pose “threats of a good example” to the empire. Each subsequent US president, from Obama on, has certified them as “extraordinary threats to US national security.” Accordingly, they are targeted with the harshest coercive measures.

In this war of attrition, historian Isaac Saney uses the example of Cuba to show how any misstep by the revolutionary government or societal deficiency is exaggerated and weaponized. The empire’s siege, he explains, is not merely an attempt to destabilize the economy but is a deliberate strategy of suffocation. The empire aims to instigate internal discontent, distort people’s perception of the government, and ultimately erode social gains.

While Cuba is affected the worst by the hybrid war, both Venezuela and Nicaragua have also been damaged. All three countries have seen the “humanitarian parole” for their migrants in the US come to an end. Temporary Protected Status (TPS) was also withdrawn for Venezuelans and Nicaraguans. The strain of returning migrants, along with cuts in the remittances they had sent (amounting to a quarter of Nicaragua’s GDP), further impacts their respective economies.

Higher-than-average tariffs are threatened on Venezuelan and Nicaraguan exports to the US, together with severe restrictions on Caracas’s oil exports. Meanwhile, the screws have been tightened on the six-decade US blockade of Cuba with disastrous humanitarian consequences.

However, all three countries are fighting back. They are forming new trade alliances with China and elsewhere. Providing relief to Cuba, Mexico has supplied oil, and China is installing solar panel farms to address the now-daily power outages. High levels of food security in Venezuela and Nicaragua have strengthened their ability to resist US sanctions, while Caracas successfully defeated one of Washington’s harshest migration measures by securing the release of 252 of its citizens who had been incarcerated in El Salvador’s torturous CECOT prison.

Venezuela’s US-backed far-right opposition is in disarray. The first Trump administration had recognized the “interim presidency” of Juan Guaidó, followed by the Biden administration declaring Edmundo González the winner of Venezuela’s last presidential election. But the current Trump administration has yet to back González, de facto recognizing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Nicaragua’s right-wing opposition is also reeling from a side-effect of Trump’s harsh treatment of migrants – many are returning voluntarily to a country claimed by the opposition to be “unsafe,” while US Homeland Security has even extolled their home country’s recent achievements. And some of Trump’s prominent Cuban-American supporters are now questioning his “maximum pressure” campaign for going too far.

Troubled waters for the Pink Tide

The current progressive wave, the so-called Pink Tide, was initiated by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s landslide victory in 2018. His MORENA Party successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, won by an even greater margin in 2024. Mexico’s first woman president has proven to be perhaps the world’s most dignified and capable sparring partner with the buffoon in the White House, who has threatened tariffs, deportations, military interdictions, and more on his southern neighbor.

Left-leaning presidents Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia are limited to a single term. Both have faced opposition-aligned legislatures and deep-rooted reactionary power blocs. Chilean Communist Party candidate Jeanette Jara is favored to advance to the second-round presidential election in November 2025, but will face a challenging final round if the right unifies, as is likely, around an extremist candidate.

As the first non-rightist in Colombia’s history, Petro has had a tumultuous presidential tenure. He credibly accuses his former foreign minister of colluding with the US to overthrow him. However, the presidency could well revert to the right in the May 2026 elections.

Boric, Petro, Uruguay’s Yamandú Orsi, and Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva met in July as the region’s center-left presidents, with an agenda of dealing with Trump, promoting multilateralism, and (we can assume) keeping their distance from the region’s more left-wing governments.

With shaky popularity ratings, Lula will likely run for reelection in October 2026. As head of the region’s largest economy, Lula plays a world leadership role, chairing three global summits in a year. Yet, with less than a majority legislative backing, Lula has triangulated between Washington and the Global South, often capitulating to US interests (as in his veto of BRICS membership for Nicaragua and Venezuela). Regardless, Trump is threatening Brazil with a crippling 50% export tariff and is blatantly interfering in the trial of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, accused of insurrection. So far, Trump’s actions have backfired, arousing anger among Brazilians. Lula commented that Trump was “not elected to be emperor of the world.”

In 2021, Honduran President Xiomara Castro took over a narcostate subservient to Washington and has tried to push the envelope to the left. Being constitutionally restricted to one term, Castro hands the Libre party candidacy in November’s election to former defense minister Rixi Moncada, who faces a tough contest with persistent US interference.

Bolivia’s ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) Party is embroiled in a self-destructive internal conflict between former President Evo Morales and his former protégé and current President, Luis Arce. The energized Bolivian right wing is spoiling for the August 17th presidential election.

Israeli infiltration accompanies US military penetration

Analyst Joe Emersberger notes: “Today, all geopolitics relates back to Gaza where the imperial order has been unmasked like never before.” Defying Washington, the Hague Group met in Colombia for an emergency summit on Gaza to “take collective action grounded in international law.” On July 16, regional states – Bolivia, Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines – endorsed the pledge to take measures in support of Palestine, with others likely to follow. Brazil will join South Africa’s ICJ complaint against Israel.

At the other end of the political spectrum are self-described “world’s coolest dictator” Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and confederates Javier Milei of Argentina and Daniel Noboa of Ecuador. As well as cozying up to Trump, they devotedly support Israel, which has been instrumental in enabling the most brutal reactionaries in the region. Noboa duly tells Israel’s Netanyahu that they “share the same enemies.”

In February, the US Southern Command warned: “Time is not on our side.” The perceived danger is “methodical incursion” into our “neighborhood” by both Russia and China. Indeed, China has become the region’s second-largest trading partner after the US, and even right-wing governments are reluctant to jeopardize their relations with Beijing. The empire’s solution is to “redouble our efforts to nest military engagement,” using humanitarian assistance as “an essential soft power tool.”

Picking up where Biden left off, Trump has furthered US military penetration, notably in Ecuador, Guyana, Brazil, Panama, and Argentina. The pandemic of narcotics trafficking, itself a product of US-induced demand, has been a Trojan Horse for militarist US intervention in Haiti, Ecuador, Peru, and threatened in Mexico.

In Panama, President José Mulino’s obeisance to Trump’s ambitions to control the Panama Canal and reduce China’s influence provoked massive protests. Trump’s collaboration in the genocide of Palestinians motivated Petro to declare that Colombia must leave the NATO alliance and keep its distance from “militaries that drop bombs on children.” Colombia had been collaborating with NATO since 2013 and became the only Latin American global partner in 2017.

Despite Trump’s bluster – what the Financial Times calls “imperial incontinence” – his administration has produced mixed results. While rightist political movements have basked in Trump’s fitful praise, his escalating coercion provokes resentment against Yankee influence. Resistance is growing, with new alliances bypassing Washington. As the empire’s grip tightens, so too does the resolve of those determined to break free from it.

The post Trump’s Latin American Policies Go South first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by John Perry and Roger D. Harris.

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Keep fighting for a nuclear-free Pacific, Helen Clark warns Greenpeace over global storm clouds https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/21/keep-fighting-for-a-nuclear-free-pacific-helen-clark-warns-greenpeace-over-global-storm-clouds/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/21/keep-fighting-for-a-nuclear-free-pacific-helen-clark-warns-greenpeace-over-global-storm-clouds/#respond Mon, 21 Jul 2025 11:00:11 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=117768 Asia Pacific Report

Former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark warned activists and campaigners in a speech on the deck of the Greenpeace environmental flagship Rainbow Warrior III last night to be wary of global “storm clouds” and the renewed existential threat of nuclear weapons.

Speaking on her reflections on four decades after the bombing of the original Rainbow Warrior on 10 July 1985, she said that New Zealand had a lot to be proud of but the world was now in a “precarious” state.

Clark praised Greenpeace over its long struggle, challenging the global campaigners to keep up the fight for a nuclear-free Pacific.

  • READ MORE: ‘Storm clouds are gathering’: 40 years on from the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior
  • Operation Exodus: The Rainbow Warrior’s last Pacific mission
  • Other Rainbow Warrior reports

“For New Zealand, having been proudly nuclear-free since the mid-1980s, life has got a lot more complicated for us as well, and I have done a lot of campaigning against New Zealand signing up to any aspect of the AUKUS arrangement because it seems to me that being associated with any agreement that supplies nuclear ship technology to Australia is more or less encouraging the development of nuclear threats in the South Pacific,” she said.

“While I am not suggesting that Australians are about to put nuclear weapons on them, we know that others do. This is not the Pacific that we want.

“It is not the Pacific that we fought for going back all those years.

“So we need to be very concerned about these storm clouds gathering.”

Lessons for humanity
Clark was prime minister 1999-2008 and served as a minister in David Lange’s Labour government that passed New Zealand’s nuclear-free legislation in 1987 – two years after the Rainbow Warrior bombing by French secret agents.

She was also head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 2009-2017.

“When you think 40 years on, humanity might have learned some lessons. But it seems we have to repeat the lessons over and over again, or we will be dragged on the path of re-engagement with those who use nuclear weapons as their ultimate defence,” Clark told the Greenpeace activists, crew and guests.

“Forty years on, we look back with a lot of pride, actually, at how New Zealand responded to the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior. We stood up with the passage of the nuclear-free legislation in 1987, we stood up with a lot of things.

“All of this is under threat; the international scene now is quite precarious with respect to nuclear weapons. This is an existential threat.”


Nuclear-free Pacific reflections with Helen Clark         Video: Greenpeace

In response to Tahitian researcher and advocate Ena Manuireva who spoke earlier about the legacy of a health crisis as a result of 30 years of French nuclear tests at Moruroa and Fangataufa, she recalled her own thoughts.

“It reminds us of why we were so motivated to fight for a nuclear-free Pacific because we remember the history of what happened in French Polynesia, in the Marshall Islands, in the South Australian desert, at Maralinga, to the New Zealand servicemen who were sent up in the navy ships, the Rotoiti and the Pukaki, in the late 1950s, to stand on deck while the British exploded their bombs [at Christmas Island in what is today Kiribati].

“These poor guys were still seeking compensation when I was PM with the illnesses you [Ena] described in French Polynesia.

Former NZ prime minister Helen Clark .
Former NZ prime minister Helen Clark . . . “I remember one of the slogans in the 1970s and 1980s was ‘if it is so safe, test them in France’.” Image: Asia Pacific Report

Testing ground for ‘others’
“So the Pacific was a testing ground for ‘others’ far away and I remember one of the slogans in the 1970s and 1980s was ‘if it is so safe, test them in France’. Right? It wasn’t so safe.

“Mind you, they regarded French Polynesia as France.

“David Robie asked me to write the foreword to the new edition of his book, Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, and it brought back so many memories of those times because those of you who are my age will remember that the 1980s were the peak of the Cold War.

“We had the Reagan administration [in the US] that was actively preparing for war. It was a terrifying time. It was before the demise of the Soviet Union. And nuclear testing was just part of that big picture where people were preparing for war.

“I think that the wonderful development in New Zealand was that people knew enough to know that we didn’t want to be defended by nuclear weapons because that was not mutually assured survival — it was mutually assured destruction.”

New Zealand took a stand, Clark said, but taking that stand led to the attack on the Rainbow Warrior in Auckland harbour by French state-backed terrorism where tragically Greenpeace photographer Fernando Pereira lost his life.

“I remember I was on my way to Nairobi for a conference for women, and I was in Zimbabwe, when the news came through about the bombing of a boat in Auckland harbour.

‘Absolutely shocking’
“It was absolutely shocking, we had never experienced such a thing. I recall when I returned to New Zealand, [Prime Minister] David Lange one morning striding down to the party caucus room and telling us before it went public that it was without question that French spies had planted the bombs and the rest was history.

“It was a very tense time. Full marks to Greenpeace for keeping up the struggle for so long — long before it was a mainstream issue Greenpeace was out there in the Pacific taking on nuclear testing.

“Different times from today, but when I wrote the foreword for David’s book I noted that storm clouds were gathering again around nuclear weapons and issues. I suppose that there is so much else going on in a tragic 24 news cycle — catastrophe day in and day out in Gaza, severe technology and lethal weapons in Ukraine killing people, wherever you look there are so many conflicts.

“The international agreements that we have relied are falling into disrepair. For example, if I were in Europe I would be extremely worried about the demise of the intermediate range missile weapons pact which has now been abandoned by the Americans and the Russians.

“And that governs the deployment of medium range missiles in Europe.

“The New Start Treaty, which was a nuclear arms control treaty between what was the Soviet Union and the US expires next year. Will it be renegotiated in the current circumstances? Who knows?”

With the Non-proliferation Treaty, there are acknowledged nuclear powers who had not signed the treaty — “and those that do make very little effort to live up to the aspiration, which is to negotiate an end to nuclear weapons”.

Developments with Iran
“We have seen recently the latest developments with Iran, and for all of Iran’s many sins let us acknowledge that it is a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty,” she said.

“It did subject itself, for the most part, to the inspections regime. Israel, which bombed it, is not a party to the treaty, and doesn’t accept inspections.

“There are so many double standards that people have long complained about the Non-Proliferation Treaty where the original five nuclear powers are deemed okay to have them, somehow, whereas there are others who don’t join at all.

“And then over the Ukraine conflict we have seen worrying threats of the use of nuclear weapons.”

Clark warned that we the use of artificial intelligence it would not be long before asking it: “How do I make a nuclear weapon?”

“It’s not so difficult to make a dirty bomb. So we should be extremely worried about all these developments.”

Then Clark spoke about the “complications” facing New Zealand.

Mangareva researcher and advocate Ena Manuireva
Mangareva researcher and advocate Ena Manuireva . . . “My mum died of lung cancer and the doctors said that she was a ‘passive smoker’. My mum had not smoked for the last 65 years.” Image: Asia Pacific Report

Teariki’s message to De Gaulle
In his address, Ena Manuireva started off by quoting the late Tahitian parliamentarian John Teariki who had courageously appealed to General Charles De Gaulle in 1966 after France had already tested three nuclear devices:

“No government has ever had the honesty or the cynical frankness to admit that its nuclear tests might be dangerous. No government has ever hesitated to make other peoples — preferably small, defenceless ones — bear the burden.”

“May you, Mr President, take back your troops, your bombs, and your planes.

“Then, later, our leukemia and cancer patients would not be able to accuse you of being the cause of their illness.

“Then, our future generations would not be able to blame you for the birth of monsters and deformed children.

“Then, you would give the world an example worthy of France . . .

“Then, Polynesia, united, would be proud and happy to be French, and, as in the early days of Free France, we would all once again become your best and most loyal friends.”

‘Emotional moment’
Manuireva said that 10 days earlier, he had been on board Rainbow Warrior III for the ceremony to mark the bombing in 1985 that cost the life of Fernando Pereira – “and the lives of a lot of Mā’ohi people”.

“It was a very emotional moment for me. It reminded me of my mother and father as I am a descendant of those on Mangareva atoll who were contaminated by those nuclear tests.

“My mum died of lung cancer and the doctors said that she was a ‘passive smoker’. My mum had not smoked for the last 65 years.

“French nuclear testing started on 2 July 1966 with Aldebaran and lasted 30 years.”

He spoke about how the military “top brass fled the island” when winds start blowing towards Mangareva. “Food was ready but they didn’t stay”.

“By the time I was born in December 1967 in Mangareva, France had already exploded 9 atmospheric nuclear tests on Moruroa and Fangataufa atolls, about 400km from Mangareva.”

France’s most powerful explosion was Canopus with 2.6 megatonnes in August 1968. It was a thermonuclear hydrogen bomb — 150 times more powerful than Hiroshima.

Greenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman
Greenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman . . . a positive of the campaign future. Image: Asia Pacific Report

‘Poisoned gift’
Manuireva said that by France “gifting us the bomb”, Tahitians had been left “with all the ongoing consequences on the people’s health costs that the Ma’ohi Nui government is paying for”.

He described how the compensation programme was inadequate, lengthy and complicated.

Manuireva also spoke about the consequences for the environment. Both Moruroa and Fangataufa were condemned as “no go” zones and islanders had lost their lands forever.

He also noted that while France had gifted the former headquarters of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEP) as a “form of reconciliation” plans to turn it into a museum were thwarted because the building was “rife with asbestos”.

“It is a poisonous gift that will cost millions for the local government to fix.”

Greenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman spoke of the impact on the Greenpeace organisation of the French secret service bombing of their ship and also introduced the guest speakers and responded to their statements.

A Q and A session was also held to round off the stimulating evening.

A question during the open mike session on board the Rainbow Warrior.
A question during the open mike session on board the Rainbow Warrior. Image: Asia Pacific Report


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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[Stephen Kinzer] Iran: The 1953 American Coup https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/17/stephen-kinzer-iran-the-1953-american-coup/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/17/stephen-kinzer-iran-the-1953-american-coup/#respond Thu, 17 Jul 2025 21:00:37 +0000 https://www.alternativeradio.org/products/kins001/
This content originally appeared on AlternativeRadio and was authored by info@alternativeradio.org.

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Israel uses Iran war to escalate assaults on press https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/09/israel-uses-iran-war-to-escalate-assaults-on-press/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/09/israel-uses-iran-war-to-escalate-assaults-on-press/#respond Wed, 09 Jul 2025 18:37:12 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=496009 Nazareth, Israel, July 9, 2025—Israel’s 12-day war with Iran provided Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government with an opportunity to step up its assault on the press — a trend that has since continued apace.

“Media freedom is often a casualty of war, and Israel’s recent war with Iran is no exception. We have seen Israeli authorities use security fears to increase censorship, while extremist right-wing politicians have demonized the media, legitimizing attacks on journalists,” said CPJ Regional Director Sara Qudah. “Despite hopes that we will see a ceasefire in Gaza this week, Israel’s government appears relentless in its determination to silence those who report critically on its military actions.”

After Haaretz newspaper published an interview with Israeli soldiers who said they were ordered to shoot at unarmed Gazans waiting for food aid, a mayor in southern Israel threatened to shut shops selling the popular liberal paper. This follows the government’s decision last year to stop advertising with Haaretz, accusing it of “incitement.”

Authorities are also pushing ahead with a bill to dismantle the public broadcaster, Kan, and shutter its news division, the country’s third-largest news channel. Meanwhile, government support has seen the right-wing Channel 14 grow in popularity.

Aluf Benn, editor-in-chief of Haaretz. (Photo: Courtesy of Benn)
Aluf Benn, editor-in-chief of Haaretz. (Photo: Courtesy of Benn)

The hostile climate fueled by Israel’s right-wing government has emboldened settler violence against journalists. On July 5, two Deutsche Welle (DW) reporters wearing press vests were attacked by Israeli settlers in Sinjil, West Bank — an incident condemned by Germany’s ambassador and the German Journalists’ Association, which called it “unacceptable that radical settlers are hunting down media professionals with impunity.” Reporters from AFP, The New York Times, and The Washington Post were also present. Palestinian journalists had to flee.

“War is a dangerous time for civil rights – rights that Netanyahu’s government is actively undermining as it moves toward dismantling democracy,” Haaretz Editor-in-Chief Aluf Benn told CPJ.

‘Broadcasts that serve the enemy’

During the Israel-Iran war of June 13 to 24, anti-press government actions included:

  • A June 18 military order requiring army approval before broadcasting the aftermath of Iranian attacks on Israeli military sites. Haaretz reported that this order was illegal as it was not made public in the official government gazette or authorized by a parliamentary committee.
  • On June 19, security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called on Israelis who see people watching “Al Jazeera broadcasts or reporters” to report their sightings to authorities. Israel shut down the Qatari-based outlet in May 2024, and six of its journalists have been killed while reporting on Israel’s war in Gaza. Many Arabs in Israel still watch Al Jazeera broadcasts, and former Israeli officials have appeared on the network since the shutdown. 

“These are broadcasts that serve the enemy,” Ben-Gvir said. 

  • On June 20, Ben-Gvir and communications minister Shlomo Karhi issued a directive that broadcasting from impact sites without written permission would be a criminal offense.

When Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara demanded that the ministers explain the legal basis for their announcement, the ministers said she was “trying to thwart” their efforts to ensure that foreign media “don’t help the enemy target us.”

  • On June 23, Haaretz reported that the police’s legal adviser issued an order giving officers sweeping powers to censor journalists reporting from the impact sites.

“This directive, which primarily targets foreign media and joins a wave of police and ministerial efforts to obstruct news coverage, is unlawful and infringes on basic rights,” Tal Hassin, an attorney with Israel’s biggest human rights group, the Association for Civil Rights in Israel (ACRI), told CPJ.

ACRI petitioned the Attorney General, arguing that the police adviser did not have the legal authority to issue such an order. It has not received a response.

Journalists censored, detained, and abused

CPJ subsequently documented at least four incidents involving journalists who were abused and blocked from reporting.

  • On June 20, police stopped a live broadcast from Tel Aviv by Turkish state-owned broadcaster TRT’s correspondent Mücahit Aydemir, although he told the officers he had the required permits, including authorization from the military censor. For several days afterwards, Aydemir received “unsettling phone calls” from unknown Hebrew-speakers, he told CPJ.
Civilian volunteer squad leader and rapper Yoav Eliasi (foreground, left), known as “The Shadow,” and other squad members select photographers at the scene of an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025. (Photo: Oren Ziv)
  • On June 21, privately owned Channel 13’s journalist Ali Mughrabi and a camera operator, who declined to be named, citing fear of reprisals, were expelled from a drone crash site in Beit She’an, northern Israel, despite showing their press accreditation. During a live broadcast, Deputy Mayor Oshrat Barel questioned their credentials, shoved the cameraperson, and ordered them to leave. She later apologized.

“What we’re experiencing isn’t just about the media — it’s about citizenship,” Mughrab, an Israeli citizen of Palestinian origin, told CPJ.

  • On June 22, a civilian police volunteer squad, led by far-right activist and rapper Yoav Eliasi, known as “The Shadow,” detained three Jerusalem-based, Arab Israeli journalists and one international journalist, after separating them from their non-Arab colleagues outside a building in Tel Aviv that had been damaged by an Iranian strike.

Mustafa Kharouf and Amir Abed Rabbo from the Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency, Ahmad Gharabli, with Agence France-Presse news agency, and another journalist who declined to be named, citing fear of reprisal, were held for three hours.  

Kharouf told CPJ, the unit asked them who was “Israeli” and allowed the non-Arab journalists to leave. 

“One officer accused us of working for Al Jazeera, even though we showed official press credentials,” said Kharouf.

“When I showed my ID, they told me I wasn’t allowed to film because I’m not Israeli – even though they treat us like Israelis when it comes to taxes,” Gharabli told CPJ.

Armed volunteer squads have rapidly grown from four before the October 2023 Hamas attack to around 900 new units, an expansion that “had negative effects on Arab-Jewish relations,” Dr. Ark Rudnitzky of Tel Aviv University told CPJ in an email. Squad members “tend to suspect an Arab solely because they are Arab,” he said.

“It was clear they targeted the journalists because they were Arab,” said Israeli journalist and witness Oren Ziv, who wrote about the incident.

The Central District Police told CPJ via email that the journalists were “evacuated from the building for security reasons related to their safety and were directed to alternative reporting locations.”

  • On June 24,  Channel 13 correspondent Paz Robinson and a camera operator who declined to be named were reporting on a missile strike in southern Israel’s Be’er Sheva when a woman shouted that he was a “Nazi” and “Al Jazeera” and blocked him from filming, screaming, “You came to celebrate over dead bodies.”

“After I saw the woman wasn’t backing down, I decided to leave. I’m not here to fight with my own people. I’m not a politician. I came to cover events,” Robinson told CPJ.

Earlier in the war with Iran, CPJ documented eight incidents in which 14 journalists faced harassment, obstruction, equipment confiscation, incitement, or forced removal by the police.

The Israel Police Spokesperson’s Unit told CPJ via email that police “made significant efforts to facilitate safe, meaningful access for journalists” during the war with Iran.  “While isolated misunderstandings may occur…case was addressed promptly and professionally.”

CPJ’s emails to the Attorney General, Israel Defense Forces’ North America Media Desk, Ben-Gvir, and Shlomo requesting comment did not receive any replies. 

Kholod Massalha is a CPJ consultant on Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory and a researcher with years of experience in press freedom and freedom of expression issues.


This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Mohamed Mandour.

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Iranian-linked hacker group targets Iran International journalists in cyberattack  https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/09/iranian-linked-hacker-group-targets-iran-international-journalists-in-cyberattack/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/09/iranian-linked-hacker-group-targets-iran-international-journalists-in-cyberattack/#respond Wed, 09 Jul 2025 17:37:50 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=496166 Paris, July 9, 2025—Hackers linked with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) infiltrated the Telegram accounts of current and former staff of the outlet Iran International in a targeted campaign to intimidate and silence journalists, the London-based broadcaster reported Tuesday.

The breaches were linked to two coordinated attacks – one in the summer of 2024 and another in January 2025 – that used malware-laced Telegram messages to infect staff devices, DW Persian reported.

“The use of spyware to harass journalists represents a chilling escalation in Iran’s campaign to intimidate and silence independent media,” said CPJ Regional Director Sara Qudah. “No journalist should be subjected to digital surveillance or coercion. Iran must immediately cease its transnational repression of the press.”

The operation was attributed to Banished Kitten, also known as Storm-0842, Dune, or Hanzaleh, a cyber unit within Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence led by Yahya Hosseini Panjkhi, whose identity was first revealed by the outlet’s reporting. 

Outlets reported that the hacker group Hanzaleh claimed responsibility for the attack. The group has not confirmed the claim on any of its affiliated platforms.

The outlet said it has strengthened digital security and alerted authorities following both attacks.

“We remain resolute in our mission to deliver accurate, uncensored news to our audience, and we will not allow these threats — online or offline — to disrupt our work. These attempts to intimidate us will not succeed,” the channel added.

Separately, Iranian lawmakers are considering a bill that press freedom advocates warn could criminalize independent journalism tied to foreign outlets as it imposes harsh penalties, including death, for alleged collaboration with “hostile” states or media. It would also allow courts to jail journalists and bar them from public service if their reporting is deemed to cause “fear and panic” or harm “national security.”

CPJ’s email to the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment on the cyberattacks and the proposed law did not receive a response.


This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Staff.

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‘The Goal Is to Put the Words “Iran” and “Nuclear” in the Same Sentence’: CounterSpin interview with Adam Johnson on media in war mode https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/08/the-goal-is-to-put-the-words-iran-and-nuclear-in-the-same-sentence-counterspin-interview-with-adam-johnson-on-media-in-war-mode/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/08/the-goal-is-to-put-the-words-iran-and-nuclear-in-the-same-sentence-counterspin-interview-with-adam-johnson-on-media-in-war-mode/#respond Tue, 08 Jul 2025 20:15:54 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9046377  

Janine Jackson interviewed Citations Needed‘s Adam Johnson about media in war mode for the June 27, 2025, episode of CounterSpin. This is a lightly edited transcript.

https://media.blubrry.com/counterspin/content.blubrry.com/counterspin/CounterSpin250627Johnson.mp3

 

PBS: Pentagon lays out details about military tactics used in U.S. strikes on Iran

AP (via PBS, 6/26/25)

Janine Jackson: We are recording June 26 in medias res, but AP’s latest gives us enough to start:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine doubled down Thursday on how destructive the US attacks had been on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and described in detail the study and planning behind the bombing mission, but they stopped short of detailing how much the attack set back the nation’s nuclear program.

We hear also Trump saying, “I’m not happy with Israel because they have broken the ceasefire” that he, we hear, created, adding that Iran and Israel have been fighting “so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” I can’t say that word on the radio, says the FCC, but Trump can say it because—well, you and I don’t know.

The US went to war with Iran last week without congressional, much less public, approval. But most of us only know what we know through corporate news media, and that’s a problem.

Joining us now is Adam Johnson, media analyst and co-host of the podcast Citations Needed. He’s coauthor, with In These Times contributing editor Sarah Lazare, of a couple of recent relevant pieces in In These Times. And he joins us now by phone from Illinois. Welcome back to CounterSpin, Adam Johnson.

Adam Johnson: Thank you for having me.

JJ: So we don’t know what’s going to happen with Iran. Maybe we’re not at war, that would be great, but sadly, we do know what corporate news media will do, because they’ll do what they do. We saw them pull out the playbook, scratch out Iraq, Afghanistan, Eastasia, and write in Iran; or maybe scratch down deeper to get to Iran 1953, and here we go again. It’s many things, but one thing for sure that it is is predictable.

Column: Lawmakers and Pundits Speed Run Iraq WMDs-Level Lies About Iran

Column (6/22/25)

AJ: So the primary thing that the news media keep doing, pundits and reporters alike, specifically Jake Tapper at CNN, which we wrote about, is they keep saying “nuclear weapons program.” And the goal, generally, is just to put the words “Iran” and “nuclear” in the same sentence, over and over and over again.

The public will largely fill in the blanks, and the media make no effort to even really point out that they, in fact, don’t have a nuclear weapon, or a nuclear weapons program, which is a really important piece of context to know, but it’s almost never mentioned. And this is according to the US intelligence’s own assessment, DNI, CIA, 19 other different intelligence agencies, all came to the same conclusion, and have since 2007.

However, pundits repeatedly say “nuclear weapons program,” but it’s not a nuclear weapons program. And there’s several instances, like I said, of Jake Tapper saying it, several people in Congress have said it. You could say maybe it’s a slip of the tongue by accident, but when basically no one else on CNN but Jake Tapper does it, it doesn’t really seem like an accident; it seems like he’s very clearly making an assertion. Now, if Jake Tapper has access to secret, proprietary intelligence that the CIA doesn’t have, maybe he should tell them?

And what we saw in the buildup to Trump’s bombing of Iran, which we now know was largely theatrical, thank God, was that the sort of ticking time bomb scenario, that he and JD Vance and others were going to the media with, was obviously, by their own admission, and by the New York Times’ own reporting, not based on any new intelligence. It was “a reassessment of old intelligence,” I believe is how the New York Times put it. There’s another name for that: It’s called ideologically motivated bullshit.

But repeatedly, the CIA, which weirdly was pushing back on this, I guess to their credit, in the Wall Street Journal and CNN, was saying, No, no, no, no. Iran’s increased enriched uranium, but it’s just a bargaining chip. It’s a way of getting the US to come to the table so they can relieve these sanctions which have crippled their economy, the only mechanism they plausibly have to do that. But they made no decision. And even if they did make a decision to build a bomb, it would take upwards of three years.

So this is the context that is completely missing or overshadowed, and there’s going to be a poll coming out. I asked one of these progressive polling groups to add it, and I don’t know when it’s going to come out, but what I’d be curious to know is, what percentage of the American public thinks that Iran currently has a nuclear weapon? I suspect it’s probably 70-some odd, 80%.

Because, again, if you say the word “nuclear” and “Iran” over and over again, people are going to have that impression. They don’t believe—why would they have a civilian program? Even though, of course, over 30 countries have a civilian nuclear program but don’t have nuclear weapons; it’s pretty common. And that is just not part of how the public interprets it.

So the public is widely misled on this issue, which, again, gives the impression of some radical cartoon “terrorist” who’s going to blow up Tel Aviv or Manhattan.

NYT: More Powerful Than Bombs

New York Times (6/28/25)

Second to that, you have a lot of the New York Times opinion section, for example, rushing to delegitimize the government, citing a very dubious poll saying 80% of Iranians want regime change, when all other polls show the number is probably closer to 40 or 50.

And, of course, how that regime change happens is very contestable; a lot of people hate Trump, but they don’t want China to come bomb us. That’s a totally different claim, right?

You had laundering of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which is a pro-Israel think tank, you had laundering of their claims that Iran is now housing the head of Al Qaeda. This is all a rehash, word for word, of Iraq War stuff.

So the New York Times was doing its part, as were some other outlets. But for the most part, the White House seems to have wanted a “cool bombing” PR thing. And then what some suspect, and I don’t know, this is just idle speculation, is that Israel was suffering more damage than people knew. And unlike bombing South Lebanon or Gaza,  Iran can actually fight back, and Israel couldn’t sustain or couldn’t maintain its defense posture.

And so they basically used this as a way of getting a ceasefire that they needed anyway. But not by lack of trying on the part of the Washington Post, which actually called for Trump to keep bombing Iran in their editorial board.

NYT: NYT Gave Green Light to Trump’s Iran Attack by Treating It as a Question of When

FAIR.org (6/23/25)

JJ: There are so many questions that are under the table in this conversation, which is what makes me so upset with media. Media pretend they’re posing questions, and so we’re supposed to imagine that they’ve considered them deeply, but to just draw us back to basics: If the question is, “Should the US bomb Iran?” well, the answer is no, because that’s an overt violation of domestic and international law. The Constitution forbids it, the War Powers Resolution forbids it. But for corporate media, it’s like Bryce Greene just wrote for FAIR.org, the New York Times editorial board says, “America Must Not Rush Into a War Against Iran.” Of course we can do it, but let’s keep it cute, right? These are illegal actions.

AJ: They did the exact same thing in Iraq on March 2003. They published “No War With Iraq,” But if you read it, it says no war until you let the weapons inspectors do their job.

And then in the month prior, they published an editorial in February 2003, saying if Saddam Hussein doesn’t hand over his biological and chemical weapons, that the US has to use military force. Now that’s an argument for war, because of course Saddam Hussein didn’t have biological and chemical weapons.

JJ: So he can’t show them.

NYT: Iran Is Breaking Rules on Nuclear Activity, U.N. Watchdog Says

New York Times (6/12/25)

AJ: So, yeah, this is the scope of debate. The scope of debate is not, “Is it justified or moral? Why is Israel not a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty? Why do they not have IAEA inspectors?” There’s this kind of faux-liberal world order narrative.

And that’s why the IAEA report was so powerful. It was a 19 to 16 vote, it was almost along party lines, kind of pro-US/Israel, pro-Russia/pro-China.

And then, quickly, the head of the IAEA says, “Oh, no, no, don’t interpret this as us saying that in any way Iran has made a decision or is somehow accelerating an actual nuclear program.” But that’s not how it was interpreted. Like the New York Times, which had it as a head story the day Israel started bombing Iran, to give it this veneer of liberal rules enforcement, which is obviously absurd, because Israel is not subject to any of these rules. It has an estimated 100 to 300 nukes.

So the scope of debate in these editorials and these opinion sections is not “Do we have any legitimacy to be bombing Iran?” but, “Is bombing Iran the best way to stop them from enriching uranium?” which, again, is entirely within their rights under international law. They have a right to a civilian nuclear program, like any other country does.

JJ: And this is the implicit undergirding of corporate media’s debate, that some countries are “good,” and they can have world-destroying weapons—declared, undeclared, whatever. And some countries are, as Van Jones put it on CNN, “not normal.” Because, if we are looking for “normal,” we got Donald Trump! We got masked agents abducting people off the street…

Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson: “The scope of debate…is not ‘Do we have any legitimacy to be bombing Iran?’ but ‘Is bombing Iran the best way to stop them from enriching uranium?’”

AJ: And we have the US and Israel openly operating a mass starvation campaign through human genocide, not even euphemism. So I guess this is what normal countries do. They have a daily ritual killing of scores, sometimes hundreds of Palestinians that are desperately lining up for grains of rice and wheat. That’s what normal countries do.

And, again, it’s very weird. There’s this zombie liberal “rules-based order” framing that is still going on, despite the fact that there’s an unfolding genocide that’s lost all pretense of international law. And so there’s this “Oh, the US has to be a policeman and police the world” faux-liberal framework that Trump doesn’t take seriously, Netanyahu doesn’t take seriously, but the media, especially the kind of prestige editorial pages and opinion pages, the New York Times and Washington Post, have to maintain that this is still a thing.

And, of course, people like Van Jones and Jake Tapper at CNN, this idea that there’s normal countries, there’s the goodies and then there’s the baddies. And so even though the goody countries are carrying out this almost cartoon evil, completely removing a people in whole or in part from Earth, and an actual explicit starvation campaign, not even hiding it—that’s what they’re calling it; it’s very weird.

In 2003, when they did this, there was a little more kind of post–Cold War credibility, and now there’s zero. And it’s very strange to watch the vestiges of that framework still go on, regardless of the new facts, and the fact that the majority of Americans think that there’s a genocide going on. No one outside of the Washington Post editorial board and the New York Times editorial board buys any of this shit.

JJ: Exactly. And just, finally, when you try to intervene, you find yourself making arguments at a level that you don’t accept. Like, “Well, they shouldn’t attack Iran’s nuclear capacities, nuclear facilities.” They said “nuclear weapons,” but then they can suck weapons out of it, and they know that it’s still going to be read the same way.

AJ: Yeah, it’s implied.

JJ: And then you also want to say, “Well wait, there’s no evidence of Iran having weaponry.” And then you want to say, “Well, Iran’s allowed to have nuclear weaponry.” And then you have to say, “If we acknowledged Israel’s nuclear weaponry, we wouldn’t legally be allowed to arm them.” So there’s all of these unspoken things, and yet, to silence them is the price of admission to get into “serious people conversation.” And that’s obviously why a lot of people clock out of elite media, because the price of admission is too high.

AJ: It is just not credible, to sit there and talk about international law; you have to have some kind of ostensibly high-minded liberal reason why you’re bombing a country. It’s just not credible, with what we’ve seen over the last two years. It’s very strange. And there’s a kind of think tank/media nexus that has to maintain this fiction, and watching them talk about Iran in such a way that was, again, every kind of terrorist cartoon, every “war on terror” framing, ticking time bomb…. Again, it doesn’t have to make any sense. It’s supposed to just be vaguely racist and vaguely feels true.

But the question in a lot of these panels was like, “What’s the best way to overthrow the regime?” You’d have a liberal on being like, “Well, we need to do the kind of meddling NED stuff and promote groups and this and that, and maybe even arm some ethnic minority groups, and maybe some Kurdish rebels.” And they’re openly just discussing how you overthrow a government.

It’s like, well, OK, so you see them as being illegitimate, can you just provide a list of the legitimate and illegitimate governments for us, and then we can figure out how the US is supposed to take out all the illegitimate ones? The whole thing is so casually chauvinist and casually imperial, they don’t even think about what they’re doing.

JJ: Exactly. Well, where do you see hope, as you are still contributing to media? You believe in journalism; where do you see daylight?

AJ: You know, I don’t. I think social media helps in some ways. Obviously I think it democratized how people receive news coming out of Gaza, but even that’s been manipulated. They see social media CEOs get dragged in front of Congress, and they get disciplined under the auspices of fighting polarization or hate speech or fake news, but it’s all to prevent media that doesn’t fall within that national security directive, quite explicitly.

So I don’t know. I think those algorithms are easily manipulated. I think that the ways in which, even though very few people actually read the New York Times editorial board or watch the Sunday shows, but the ways in which those ideological, agenda-setting institutions still manage to trickle down, and promote seriousness and the concept of seriousness and what is serious and what isn’t, is still very effective. And I don’t really see that changing anytime soon.

JJ: Corporate news media are so many steps removed from human understanding, but they convey so powerfully the air that this is how smart people think. And you can think differently, but that will make you marginal. And even critics are stuck at, like, “don’t drop bombs.” And it becomes this very stale, rehearsed conversation, and we already know where it leads.

And what corporate media won’t do is show the vigor and the work and the intelligence of diplomacy. Media could make peacemaking a heroic effort. Kristi Noem could cosplay as a negotiator. They could sell a different story if they wanted to, is my feeling. So I don’t feel like journalism per se is broken. I feel like it’s being mal-used.

Joy Reid (with Jamie Metzl) on CNN

Joy Reid (with Jamie Metzl) on CNN (6/25/25)

AJ: Yeah, I think to the extent to which they have done that, there’s been people saying, “Oh, the Obama deal was working.” And that’s true to an extent, but the Obama deal was still predicated on a totally arbitrary and unfair sanctions regime that is not applied to other countries. But it is correct that it was working, I mean, if one assumes that “working” is Iran not having enriched uranium. So there were some people saying that.

And Joy-Ann Reid I would like to highlight as someone who did a good job pushing back on a lot of the stuff on CNN. She was fired because of her reporting on Gaza at MSNBC. But she’s reappeared as a pundit on CNN to, I guess, play devil’s advocate, as it were. And she’s done a tremendous job, actually, going on CNN and punching down these idiots. That was kind of nice to see. It’s very rare, though. Who knows if they’ll ask her back after that.

But the debate is like, “how much should we sanction Iran?” on the far left end of the spectrum. The other end of the spectrum is “should we go for regime change and kill hundreds of thousands of people?” Instead of saying, well, OK, if we do believe in these high-minded liberal concepts of an international rules-based order, then why don’t we go back to the drawing table and come up with rules, and actually apply them equally? Come up with a system where the US allies and US client states and to a great extent the US—which of course doesn’t sign a bunch of different treaties, cluster munitions, the ICC, the International Criminal Court—why don’t we come up with an actual rules-based order, instead of just whatever the US State Department and its buddies in Tel Aviv and Riyadh think?

That would be something that would maybe be worth pursuing, but it’s not. It’s this kind of weird, zombie, fake-consistent order, where if you’re deemed as being hostile to US and Israeli and Saudi security architecture in the Middle East, you are seen as per se ontologically evil, and in urgent need of disciplining, and in urgent need of either regime change or bombing or crippling sanctions that ruin your economy.

And that’s just taken for granted. And this is not particularly liberal or very thoughtful or very worldly. It’s knee jerk. It’s chauvinist. It’s obviously oftentimes racist, and that’s what narrows the debate. There’s no sense that we should apply any of these standards to any other country.

JJ: All right then. Well, we’ll end there for now. We’ve been speaking with media analyst Adam Johnson. He’s co-host, with Nima Shirazi, of the podcast Citations Needed. His substack is called the Column, and his work on Iran and other issues, co-authored with Sarah Lazare, can be found at InTheseTimes.com. Thank you so much, Adam Johnson, for joining us this week on CounterSpin.

AJ: Thank you.


This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Janine Jackson.

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Academic slams NZ government over ‘compromised’ foreign policy https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/08/academic-slams-nz-government-over-compromised-foreign-policy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/08/academic-slams-nz-government-over-compromised-foreign-policy/#respond Tue, 08 Jul 2025 10:43:27 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=117142 Asia Pacific Report

A prominent academic has criticised the New Zealand coalition government for compromising the country’s traditional commitment to upholding an international rules-based order due to a “desire not to offend” the Trump administration.

Professor Robert Patman, an inaugural sesquicentennial distinguished chair and a specialist in international relations at the University of Otago, has argued in a contributed article to The Spinoff that while distant in geographic terms, “brutal violence in Gaza, the West Bank and Iran marks the latest stage in the unravelling of an international rules-based order on which New Zealand depends for its prosperity and security”.

Dr Patman wrote that New Zealand’s founding document, the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi, emphasised partnership and cooperation at home, and, after 1945, helped inspire a New Zealand worldview enshrined in institutions such as the United Nations and norms such as multilateralism.

  • READ MORE: New Zealand and Gaza: Confronting and not confronting the unspeakable
  • Other Israel’s war on Gaza reports
Professor Robert Patman
Professor Robert Patman . . . “Even more striking was the government’s silence on President Trump’s proposal to own Gaza with a view to evicting two million Palestinian residents.” Image: University of Otago

“In the wake of Hamas’ terrorist attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023, the National-led coalition government has in principle emphasised its support for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and the need for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the occupied territories of East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank,” he wrote.

However, Dr Patman said, in practice this New Zealand stance had not translated into firm diplomatic opposition to the Netanyahu government’s quest to control Gaza and annex the West Bank.

“Nor has it been a condemnation of the Trump administration for prioritising its support for Israel’s security goals over international law,” he said.

Foreign minister Winston Peters had described the situation in Gaza as “simply intolerable” but the National-led coalition had little specific to say as the Netanyahu government “resumed its cruel blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza in March and restarted military operations there”.

Silence on Trump’s ‘Gaza ownership’
“Even more striking was the government’s silence on President Trump’s proposal to own Gaza with a view to evicting two million Palestinian residents from the territory and the US-Israeli venture to start the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) in late May in a move which sidelined the UN in aid distribution and has led to the killing of more than 600 Palestinians while seeking food aid,” Dr Patman said.

While New Zealand, along with the UK, Australia, Canada and Norway, had imposed sanctions on two far-right Israeli government ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar ben Gvir, in June for “inciting extremist violence” against Palestinians — a move that was criticised by the Trump administration — it was arguably a case of very little very late.

“The Hamas terror attacks on October 7 killed around 1200 Israelis, but the Netanyahu government’s retaliation by the Israel Defence Force (IDF) against Hamas has resulted in the deaths of more than 56,000 Palestinians — nearly 70 percent of whom were women or children — in Gaza.

Over the same period, more than 1000 Palestinians had been killed in the West Bank as Israel accelerated its programme of illegal settlements there.

‘Strangely ambivalent’
In addition, the responses of the New Zealand government to “pre-emptive attacks” by Israel (13-25 June) and Trump’s United States (June 22) against Iran to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities were strangely ambivalent.

Despite indications from US intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran had not produced nuclear weapons, Foreign Minister Peters had said New Zealand was not prepared to take a position on that issue.

Confronted with Trump’s “might is right” approach, the National-led coalition faced stark choices, Dr Patman said.

The New Zealand government could continue to fudge fundamental moral and legal issues in the Middle East and risk complicity in the further weakening of an international rules-based order it purportedly supports, “or it can get off the fence, stand up for the country’s values, and insist that respect for international law must be observed in the region and elsewhere without exception”.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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I Remember It, Well…. https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/05/i-remember-it-well/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/05/i-remember-it-well/#respond Sat, 05 Jul 2025 13:32:07 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159668 Fame is fleeting. We may be a Facebook celebrity today with ‘likes’ in the six digits, only to find as time goes by that the balance is shifting daily as we fade into the oblivion from which we emerged. Pretty much the same phenomenon is discernible in regard to the attention paid historical events. Images […]

The post I Remember It, Well…. first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
Fame is fleeting. We may be a Facebook celebrity today with ‘likes’ in the six digits, only to find as time goes by that the balance is shifting daily as we fade into the oblivion from which we emerged. Pretty much the same phenomenon is discernible in regard to the attention paid historical events. Images blur, and then most slip out of consciousness. It seems especially pronounced these days. Forgetfulness, whether due to a studied attempt to suppress the past or the kicking-in of self-defense instincts on a mass scale, reminds us of George Orwell’s “memory hole’ in 1984. As Orwell understood when he created the “memory hole” concept, the erasure or sublimation of memory makes it easier to shape the present by controlling or editing history. Doing so also serves to preserve a mythic version of a country’s identity. Most broadly, a memory hole is any psychological mechanism for the alteration or disappearance of inconvenient or embarrassing past events. Orwell’s Ministry of Truth made sure that its manipulations were complete and irreversible. What we experience today is something less draconian and directed. Memories do survive, but they usually are vague and distorted. They are prone to be blended into benign fable.

These thoughts about the transitory nature of things arose while perusing a collection of old clippings. Let’s consider some of them.

Image: ASCF News

1. Quemoy & Matsu. For those youthful readers, they are two tiny islands lying just off the coast of China but occupied by the Nationalists ensconced on Taiwan under our protection. In the late 1950s, they were a hot topic. The issue of whether and how to defend them figured prominently in the Kennedy-Nixon debates – right up there with the ‘missile gap’ (paranoid fiction) and Nixon’s 5 o’clock shadow. Pundits concluded that the debates, along with Richard Daley’s creative arithmetic in tabulating the Cook County vote, put JFK in the White House. At the time, there was widespread fear that the dispute could be the flashpoint for war with Beijing issuing 1,500 or so ‘final warnings’ that we had better turn them over to the PRC – or else. Mention the words Quemoy and Matsu these days, and the only response would be a request for the newly opened restaurant’s address.

Quemoy & Matsu yesterday; the Spratleys today.

In 1958, the PRC was an enemy. Nowadays, it is a competitor – at worst. However, too many in Washington’s corridors of power ‘need’ an enemy – for strategic, material or emotional reasons. Russia and/or Iran do not suffice. For China’s uniqueness lies in its potential – based on its very success – to challenge Americans’ atavistic article of faith that the United States is destined to serve as the world’s paramount power and leading light. America must beat the Chinese in order to confirm that foundational truth.

2. Crucial breakthroughs in anti-submarine technology – by the Soviets. As the “balance-of-terror” became institutionalized with the appurtenances of MAD, mental space opened for a fresh source of worry. Since the Pentagon & friends cannot tolerate a threat vacuum, anonymous reports started to appear which noted with alarm that the critical pillar of the deterrent triad composed of nuclear submarines carrying MIRVED missiles was in danger of being menaced by the Russkis’ development of diabolically capable attack submarines. The Cassandras claimed that their deployments gave Moscow an incentive to launch a first strike at a time of crisis.

Outcome? Nothing consequential. Sober analysis showed that the risk was inflated, our 20,000+ warhead arsenal was kept intact, and then the USSR disappeared from the strategic map. Now, of course, Putin is taken to be the avatar of Khrushchev, Russia’s hypersonic missiles are reason/excuse to accelerate our own $1 trillion upgrade, and nobody talks about submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) – much less their fanciful vulnerability. Yet, they are the ultimate factor ensuring the credibility of Mutual Assured Destruction.

There is no such thing as “nuclear superiority” between the great powers. The present ‘race’ to develop more refined missile delivery systems (which the Russian are ‘winning’) will not change that basic truth. For 75 years, military planners and analysts have bandied about a variety of ideas for ‘operationalizing’ nuclear weapons.

Fortunately, they never have been activated (TNWs a partial exception). No leader of a nuclear state has placed a hovering finger over the ‘button.’ Sanity ruled their thinking/emotions. That may now have changed given that sanity is no longer a requisite for being commander-in-chief of a nuclear power.

The one state that conceivably could use a nuclear explosive as a weapon of war is rabidly, fanatical Israel.

Fulda Gap

3. Fulda Gap. For decades, anyone with the slightest claim to expertise about national security and NATO was on intimate terms with the ‘Fulda gap.’ It refers to that portion of the North German plain that represented the shortest route for the Red Army to take on its way to the Channel. The term can have a strategic as well as a territorial definition. For the ‘gap’ also was the dividing line between the bulk of the American forces in Germany who were deployed south of it and the allied forces deployed mainly to the north of it. Hence, double vulnerability. Nightmare visions of 40 Soviet armored divisions pouring through the Fulda gap spawned several innovative ‘solutions.’ They included the deployment of thousands of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Western European available to staunch an otherwise irresistible Soviet advance overwhelming outnumbered, conventionally armed NATO troops. That was a Kennedy/McNamara initiative. The TNWs were deployed; some are still in place. Fortunately, the notion that this first-use resort to n-weapons could be operationalized without setting off massive strategic exchanges was never tested. Of course, we now know that the Kremlin never contemplated such a suicidal assault – as did a few sane heads back then.

Little has been learned, though. These days, the Pentagon and NATO routinely sound the alarm that Putin’s truncated Russia poses a similar threat – despite the loss of all its Warsaw Pact allies and its Eastern European bases, despite NATO’s advance deployments to the Russian borders with Poland, the Baltics, and Finland — despite the inconvenient geographical fact that Russia’s army is 1,000 kilometers farther away from the Fulda gap. That army took three years to gain a decisive advantage over NATO’s Ukrainian auxiliaries. Moreover, there is no conceivable motive for such a crackpot move. For Russians to reach the Fulda Gap these days, they depend on tour coaches. Nobody uses the term ‘Fulda Gap’ in Washington. It’s too awkward for our war planners, but the mentality survives and thrives. History can repeat itself: first as drama, then as farce.

4. Fantasy Provocations. In 1846, many American eyed enviously the Mexican territories North and West of the Rio Grande and Baja. Texans, who were still digesting the large morsel of real estate they had torn from Santa Ana, where among them – out of pure greed, and to gain ‘strategic depth’ I suppose. President James Polk, egged on by other hawkish empire-builders among the country’s political elite, was gung-ho for conquest. He was just looking for an excuse. There being none: he fabricated one. After Texas’ accession to the Union, a crisis was created by the Texans’ demand that the border be moved south from the Nueces River to the Rio Grande (lebensraum). When Mexican President Herrera balked, Polk ordered General (later President) Zachary Taylor to invade the disputed zone. Months later, the Mexicans dared to defend their territory. Polk raged that Mexico had “invaded our territory and shed American blood on American soil” – and sent to Congress an already drafted declaration of war.

Public opinion was divided (among the vocal opponents was Congressman Abraham Lincoln), but the motto Manifest Destiny and the willful Washington government triumphed. We invaded Mexico, defeated them, occupied Mexico City and forced them to hand over the vast territory that ran to the Pacific. Probably the biggest land grab in history. Hence, Hollywood, Santa Fe, and Los Vegas.

Greenland’s Destiny is now Manifest — in the eyes of the American Presidency. So, too, Canada.

Stolen Birthright: The U.S. Conquest and Exploitation of the Mexican People

In 1898, a vigorous America feeling its oats began flexing its muscles – in Central America, in the Caribbean, in the Pacific Basin. McKinley was President. Expansionists fixed a covetous eye on the residual Spanish possessions of Cuba, Puerto Rico and – farther afield – the Philippine Islands. Spain was a decaying state whose tattered bits of empire scattered around the globe it could not defend. All that the United States needed to take them over was an excuse. As in 1848, they manufactured one. Many of us still “remember the Maine” – the U.S. flagged ship that blew up in Havana Harbor. The U.S. accused the colonial authorities there of deliberately destroying the ship. There was no plausible reason for them to do so – but it wasn’t reason that prevailed. Historians have established beyond a doubt that the Maine was sunk by an explosion that was caused by a spontaneous combustion of grain stored in its hull. No more than there was reason to believe that Saddam Hussein was behind 9/11 or the aluminum tubes were the crucial ingredients of his non-existence nuclear weapons program. The outcome of the Spanish-American War: we got the dubious places we prized. We suppressed a 6-year Philippino resistance to our occupation that left about 400,000 ‘natives’ dead and devastated the country, and 40 years later, we were gone. Teddy Roosevelt rode his fame as leader of the ‘Rough Riders’ into the White House.

In Panama, too, they speak Spanish.

In 1958, we embarked on an uncannily similar performance in Indochina. That gruesome story has many chapters, punctuated in the end by humiliation and failure. The most notable repeat element was the artful fabrication of an incident that was exploited as an excuse for war: the infamous Tonkin Gulf encounter. The short version is simple. Senior Washington officials, led by Robert McNamara and McGeorge Bundy, were pressing very hard for a massive escalation of the American military intervention. JFK resisted the pressure and documentary evidence now suggests that he indeed reached the tentative conclusion to begin a withdrawal after the 1964 election. LBJ was also hesitant, but more ambivalent and in a weaker political position. McNamara and Bundy in fact sent Johnson a written ultimatum: either take the measures we are advocating, or we will denounce you as a weakling on national security during the upcoming campaign. It was a proposal that he could not refuse. So, the hunt for an excuse that would sway public opinion and justify a major war in Asia was on. It was found in a naval incident off the coast of North Vietnam. The official story was that an American vessel had been fired on by a Vietnamese gunboat. That was beefed-up as the casus belli for the disproportionate American retaliation which produced millions of casualties (mostly civilian) in all of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and among American forces (58,000 killed). The rest is a matter of record.

So, keep a gimlet eye on the Persian Gulf. Then again, recent events tell us that these days we don’t need a contrived excuse to attack a sovereign country on the other side of the world that poses no threat to the United States.

6. 50 METRICS
In November-December 2009, President Obama found himself in a dilemma. It was the failure of the American project to foster a friendly, democratic Afghanistan. The enormous investment of military forces, cash and political advice had not paid the expected dividends. The Kabul government was incompetent, corrupt and riddled by warlord rivalry. The Taliban insurgency, spurred back to life by the ham-handed occupation, was thriving. The counter-insurgency was stymied in a stalemate. Obama’s instincts pointed him towards a lowering of the United States’ profile in acceptance that our goals were unreachable. However, no one in the administration’s national security team shared this sentiment – except for Vice-President Biden.

Under the guidance of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, the resisters formed a cabal to prevent Obama from acting on his instincts. It included Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mike Mullin, CIA Director David Petraeus, our newly appointed commander in Afghanistan Stanley McCrystal and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She was selected to act as the ‘frontman’ for political reasons that included her personal standing with the President. They pressed hard for a different strategy that entailed an expansion of the residual reduced force in country by some 35,000 and a doubling down on our commitment to pre-existing objectives. Obama set aside his misgivings and yielded to the pressure. To cover himself, he took three exceptional steps. One, he lowered the size of the escalation. Two, he composed an elaborate, quasi-legal document that spelled out the terms and conditions of the strategy. It stipulated the sequence of actions and set deadlines. All of the main protagonists were obliged to sign what was a strange sort of pre-nuptial contract. Finally, Obama included 50 metrics by which to measure progress/success in the strategy’s implementation. That was done in order to avoid the fudging of future assessments and serve as benchmarks for later decisions. The punditry and the media made much of the 50 metrics which were broadly viewed as a sign of the President’s diligence and rigorous, lawyerly mind. That lasted for about 10 days. The metrics never again were to be mentioned in any public setting – or, as far as we know – in any private setting either.

11 years and 3 administrations later, the war went on. Trump talked about a withdrawal – sort of. We didn’t leave. Desultory ‘peace’ talks between the Taliban and the debile Kabul government (complicated by the intrusion of ISIS fighters) meandered. So, were back to Richard Holbrooke’s definition of success: “We’ll know it when we see it.” For the Pentagon, ‘success’ was primarily a matter of ensuring that history doesn’t place an ‘L’ in the U.S. military’s record book. In the last weeks of his first administration, Trump conceded defeat. The chaotic withdrawal, totally mismanaged by the Pentagon, took pace under Biden. He was blamed.

Digits and statistics and equations and algorithms are the last (or first) refuge of somebody either trying to pull the wool over your eyes – or really not knowing the subject he is talking about.

The ignominious flight from the 19-year Afghan debacle put paid to the COIN/Nation Building/Democracy Promotion phase of the post-Cold War strategy for maximizing American global influence. It had been a three-pronged project now reduced to what always had been the two main elements: coercive force, and covert operations. The ‘best-of-intentions’ cover that the former provided continued to serve as propaganda tool for cudgeling hostile states on human rights grounds. However, the ranks of the true believers were reduced to a few naïve idealists.

Outright coercion has been employed with growing audacity: Syria, Libya, Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon (where it succeeded) as well as Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen (where it failed). Covert operations are employed with the same audacity spanning the globe – producing similar mixed results: Ukraine, Honduras, Bolivia, Peru, Pakistan (successful); Venezuela, Georgia, Belarus, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Mali (where it failed). This propensity for trying to dictate the political leadership of other countries now has reached its logical extremity in the outright voiding of election results that displease Washington: Romania being the outstanding example. This last is not as incongruent as it might seem; after all, this is what 50% of Americans, a majority of the ruling party, and a slice of the federal judiciary approve of/countenance when it comes to the violent insurrection of January 6.

7. The JCPOA Deal With Iran. Within hours of signing the historic, laboriously constructed agreement, President Obama said:

With respect to Iran, it is a great civilization, but it also has an authoritarian theocracy in charge that is anti-American, anti-Israeli, anti-Semitic, sponsors terrorism, and there are a whole host of real profound differences that we [have with them].

Later:

Questions have been raised about whether we have sufficient options for dealing with Iranian violations of the deal. In fact, we have a wide range of unilateral and multilateral responses that we can employ should Iran fail to meet its commitments. First and foremost, as you are aware, the snap back provision we secured in the UN Security Council is unprecedented. If at any time the United States believes Iran has failed to meet its commitments, no other state can block our ability to snap back those multilateral sanctions. Second, we and our European partners can snap our own sanctions back into place at any time should Iran fail to meet its commitments. This gives us, as well as our European partners, enormous leverage in holding Iran to its commitments under the JCPOA. Third, we also enjoy a range of other, more incremental options. These include re-imposing certain US. sanctions, and working with our European partners to do the same, as we have done in the past. Fourth, we can employ our leverage in the mechanisms agreed to with our negotiating partners, such as through the Joint Commission’s role in the procurement channel established in the JCPOA this is a mechanism Iran must use under the deal for the procurement of any materials designed for a peaceful nuclear program and in which we have the ability to block approval. Ultimately, it is essential that we retain the flexibility to decide what responsive measures we and our allies deem appropriate for any non-compliance. Telegraphing in advance to Iran the expected any potential infractions would be counterproductive, potentially lessening the deterrent effect.

— Letter to Representative Nadler

Obama was echoed by Secretary of State John Kerry:

Through these steps and others, we will maintain international pressure on Iran. United States sanctions imposed because of Tehran’s support for terrorism and its human rights record – those will remain in place, as will our sanctions aimed at preventing the proliferation of ballistic missiles and transfer of conventional arms. The UN Security Council prohibitions on shipping weapons to Hizballah, the Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthi rebels in Yemen – all of those will remain as well….

Have no doubt. The United States will oppose Iran’s destabilizing policies with every national security tool available. And disregard the myth. The Iran agreement is based on proof, not trust. And in a letter that I am sending to all the members of Congress today, I make clear the Administration’s willingness to work with them on legislation to address shared concerns about regional security consistent with the agreement that we have worked out with our international partners.

Reply: “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, [said] Washington sought Iran’s “surrender”. “The [arrogant] Americans say they stopped Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” Khamenei said. “They know it’s not true. We had a fatwa (religious ruling), declaring nuclear weapons to be religiously forbidden under Islamic law. It had nothing to do with the nuclear talks.”

Neither Obama nor Trump complied with the JCPOA’s provisions calling for the lifting of economic sanctions including release of Iranian financial assets frozen in American banks. Iran did comply with its treaty commitments vis the IAEA (which predictably passed on the information to American Intelligence and military planners — a practice that continued to last week). This pattern is reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s reneging on the deal with North Korea in the 1990s.

This depiction of Iran has had two profound effects. First, it closed off the possibility of pursuing a wider détente with Iran that could permit diplomatic resolution of outstanding regional conflicts. Second, this characterization was grist for the mill for all those opposed to any normalization of relations between Washington and Tehran. Thereby, it created political circumstances that encouraged Trump’s withdrawal from the treaty and then led President Biden to take a hardline approach to a restoration of our participation. By insisting on the same, unacceptable preconditions that his predecessor demanded, Biden in effect followed the course laid down by Trump – as enabled by Obama.

Now we suffer the inevitable denouement.

Why Memory?

Each of these episodes in collective forgetfulness has its singular features, as do the lessons to be drawn from them. If we were to indulge ourselves in generalization, they could be summarized this way:

1. The erasure or blurring of past events is common and easily accomplished.
2. Doing so often is a matter of political convenience.
3. The lessons we draw from them are normally self-serving, selective and partial.
4. Retrieving with accuracy memories of those past events is technically quite simple; psychologically, it takes great willpower
The failure of collective memory can exact a very heavy penalty.

The post I Remember It, Well…. first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Michael Brenner.

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Media Celebrate International Aggression Against Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/03/media-celebrate-international-aggression-against-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/03/media-celebrate-international-aggression-against-iran/#respond Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:34:09 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9046334  

Aggression is widely understood as the most serious form of the illegal use of force under international law. At the post–World War II Nuremberg Trials, British Judge Norman Birkett said:

To initiate a war of aggression…is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime, differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.

UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 lists seven acts that constitute aggression, including:

  • The invasion or attack by the armed forces of a state of the territory of another State….
  • Bombardment by the armed forces of a state against the territory of another state, or the use of any weapons by a state against the territory of another state.

In a clear instance of such aggression, 125 US military aircraft (along with a submarine) unleashed 75 weapons against Iran on June 21, including 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), each of which weighs 30,000 pounds (BBC, 6/23/25). The MOPs are the most powerful non-nuclear weapons in the US arsenal (Democracy Now!, 6/23/25).

‘Brilliant military operation’

NYT: Trump’s Courageous and Correct Decision

The New York Times‘ Bret Stephens (6/22/25) acknowledged that US intelligence maintained that “Iran’s leaders had not yet decided to build a bomb”—but he argued that to act “amid uncertainty…is the essence of statesmanship.”

Rather than condemning this blatant violation of international law, US corporate media commentators gushed over what the Boston Globe (6/24/25) called a “brilliant military operation.” The Wall Street Journal (6/22/25) gave President Donald Trump “credit…for meeting the moment.”

To the New York Times’ Bret Stephens (6/22/25), Trump made “a courageous and correct decision that deserves respect.” “The president acted before it was too late,” he wrote. “It is the essence of statesmanship.”

For the Washington Post’s Max Boot (6/25/25), it’s “good news…that both Israel and the United States showed they can bombard Iranian nuclear facilities and other targets at will.”

Rather than toasting aggression, these observers could have used their platforms to try to help foster a political climate that prioritizes peace and the international legal principles that could help create a less violent world.

Meanwhile, some opinion mongers thought the US was at risk of insufficiently violating international law. The Post’s editorial board (6/22/25) said Trump

should ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is demolished, as he appeared to claim it was on Saturday. This would mean the destruction of the targeted sites plus any residual weapons-building capacity.

In other words, the authors are glad that the US bombed Iran in violation of international law, and think it might be best to do more of the same.

A Journal editorial (6/23/25) put forth a similar view, warning that Trump will “squander” any “gains” that the US and Israel may have made against Iran if he “lets Iran take a breather, retain any enriched uranium it has secretly stored, and then rearm. But the last fortnight creates a rare opportunity for a more peaceful Middle East.” I’m not a big Orwell fan, but there’s something to his vision of the propaganda slogan “war is peace.”

Upside-down world

WSJ: Trump Meets the Moment on Iran

Iran “now knows Mr. Trump isn’t bluffing,” the Wall Street Journal (6/22/25) wrote. Does the paper imagine that Iran thought Trump was “bluffing” when he assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the nation’s top military leader, in 2020?

These celebrations of bomb-dropping occur in an upside-down world, where Iran is an aggressor against the United States. One form of this lie is accusing Iran of wantonly killing Americans or seeking to do so. The Journal (6/22/25) cited “1,000 Americans killed by Iran-supplied roadside bombs and other means”—referring to the dubious claim that Iran is responsible for US soldiers killed during the illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq (Progressive, 1/7/20). Thus, to the editors, “Mr. Trump had to act to stop the threat in front of him to protect America.”

For Boot (6/22/25), Iran is a “predator” that the United States and Israel “will still have to deal with…for years to come.”

It would be nice to be able to assess the evidence for these allegations, but the authors don’t so much as hint at any. What is well documented, though, is that the US has been the aggressor in its longrunning war with Iran.

The US ruling class initiated the conflict by overthrowing Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953 (NPR, 2/7/19), propping up the Shah’s torture regime for 26 years (BBC, 6/3/16; AP, 2/6/19), sponsoring the Iraqi invasion of Iran and helping Iraq use chemical weapons against Iran (Foreign Policy, 8/26/13), supporting Israel’s years-long campaign of murdering Iranian scientists (Responsible Statecraft, 12/21/20), and asphyxiating Iran’s civilian population through economic sanctions (Human Rights Watch, 10/29/19).

In other words, the US has been prosecuting a war against the Iranian people for more than 70 years, and Iran hasn’t done anything remotely comparable to the US, but the corporate media pretends that the inverse is true.

The consent manufacturers went even further, characterizing Iran as a threat to the world more generally. The Journal (6/22/25) said “Iran has been waging regional and terrorist war for decades,” and that “the world is safer” because the US bombed the country. Stephens proclaimed the Iranian government “the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism,” a claim Boot (6/25/25) echoed, writing that the nation has a “decades-long track record as the No. 1 state sponsor of terrorism.” Sickeningly, Antony Blinken (New York Times, 6/24/25), a leading architect of the genocide of Gaza’s civilian population, called Iran “a leading state sponsor of terrorism; a destructive and destabilizing force via its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq.”

As usual, none of these writers bothered to say which acts of “terrorism” Iran has backed, never mind provide proof. Of course, if one wanted to make a serious argument that Iran has won the planet’s “state sponsor of terrorism” gold medal, then it would be necessary to show how they trumped, say, US support for Al Qaeda in Syria. For such a case to be convincing, it would furthermore be necessary to assess where bankrolling a genocide ranks in the terror-sponsoring Olympics.

‘A grave nuclear threat’

WaPo: Iran’s nuclear program is damaged — not ‘obliterated’

Max Boot (Washington Post, 6/25/25): “The good news is that both Israel and the United States showed they can bombard Iranian nuclear facilities and other targets at will.”

In the fantasy world where Iran is a grave danger to the US and indeed the world, then wrongly implying that it has or is about to have nuclear weapons packs a heavier punch. The Journal (6/22/25) said, “President Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s three most significant nuclear sites on Saturday helped rid the world of a grave nuclear threat.” The editorial would later add, “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wanted a bomb more than peace.”

Boot (6/25/25) wrote that “preliminary Israeli intelligence assessments [of the US bombing of Iran] conclude that the damage to the Iranian nuclear weapons program was more extensive—enough to set back the program by several years.” Stephens began his piece:

For decades, a succession of American presidents pledged that they were willing to use force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But it was President Trump who, by bombing three of Iran’s key nuclear sites on Sunday morning, was willing to demonstrate that those pledges were not hollow and that Tehran could not simply tunnel its way to a bomb because no country other than Israel dared confront it.

As FAIR contributor Bryce Greene (6/23/25) recently demonstrated, there is no proof that Iran has nuclear weapons or is close to having any. Yet the op-ed pages are peppered with insinuations that Iran’s imaginary nukes legitimize the US’s aggression against the country.

A Boston Globe editorial (6/24/25) read:

After years of insisting it would not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, Israel followed through by launching a wide-ranging attack earlier this month, assassinating nuclear scientists and military leaders and destroying many sites associated with Iran’s decades-long nuclear program. Trump initially stayed on the sidelines, until Saturday when US bombers delivered the coup de grâce, destroying—or at least heavily damaging—a key underground site that only American bunker-buster bombs could reach….

Stopping Iran, whose unofficial national motto is “Death to America,’’ from gaining a nuclear weapon has rightly been a US priority for decades.

Iran’s nuclear program is now damaged but not destroyed.

What’s missing from this chatter is that, even if we lived in an alternate reality where Iran had nuclear weapons or was hours away from having them, attacking them on these grounds would not be legitimate. After all, international law does not grant states a right to attack each other on a preventive (Conversation, 6/18/25) or pre-emptive basis (Conversation, 6/23/25). This crucial point was entirely absent in the coverage I’ve discussed.

Also overlooked are the 90 nuclear warheads that Israel is believed to have, as well as the more than 5,200 that the US reportedly possesses, none of which apparently constitute “a grave nuclear threat,” even as it’s not Iran but the US and Israel that routinely carry out full-scale invasions and occupations of nations in West Asia.

Whether it’s Iran’s supposed support for terrorism or Iran’s nonexistent and non-imminent nuclear weapons, the propaganda follows the same formula: make an unsubstantiated claim about Iranian malfeasance, and use that as a premise on which to defend Washington openly carrying out acts of aggression, perhaps the gravest violation of international law.

If you want the US and Israel to stop killing and immiserating people in Iran, remember this pattern and get used to debunking it. Because, last week’s ceasefire notwithstanding, the US/Israeli war on Iran isn’t over.


This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Gregory Shupak.

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Faramarz Farbod in Conversation with Yves Engler on Canada, the US, and Imperialism https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/faramarz-farbod-in-conversation-with-yves-engler-on-canada-the-us-and-imperialism/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/faramarz-farbod-in-conversation-with-yves-engler-on-canada-the-us-and-imperialism/#respond Wed, 02 Jul 2025 23:21:38 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159612 Faramarz Farbod speaks with Yves Engler, a Canadian activist and author of 13 books, including most recently Canada’s Long Fight Against Democracy and Stand on Guard for Whom? (A People’s History of Canadian Military). The conversation explores Canada’s role in the world, its relationship with US capitalism and imperialism, Canada’s policies toward Iran and Cuba, misperceptions of Canada in the US, […]

The post Faramarz Farbod in Conversation with Yves Engler on Canada, the US, and Imperialism first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
Faramarz Farbod speaks with Yves Engler, a Canadian activist and author of 13 books, including most recently Canada’s Long Fight Against Democracy and Stand on Guard for Whom? (A People’s History of Canadian Military). The conversation explores Canada’s role in the world, its relationship with US capitalism and imperialism, Canada’s policies toward Iran and Cuba, misperceptions of Canada in the US, and the concept of Canadianism.

The post Faramarz Farbod in Conversation with Yves Engler on Canada, the US, and Imperialism first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Faramarz Farbod.

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The Plot Against Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/the-plot-against-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/the-plot-against-iran/#respond Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:01:06 +0000 https://progressive.org/latest/the-plot-against-iran-benjamin-davies-20250702/
This content originally appeared on The Progressive — A voice for peace, social justice, and the common good and was authored by Medea Benjamin.

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‘The missiles represented hope’: Palestinians in Gaza react to Iran bombing Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/the-missiles-represented-hope-palestinians-in-gaza-react-to-iran-bombing-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/the-missiles-represented-hope-palestinians-in-gaza-react-to-iran-bombing-israel/#respond Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:45:41 +0000 https://therealnews.com/?p=335183 Still image of Iranian missiles in the night sky descending on Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 13, 2025. Still image from TRNN documentary report "Gaza watches Iran bomb Israel" (2025).“Honestly, I felt, ‘Please God, just push Israel back a bit [so] they might leave us alone, a little.”]]> Still image of Iranian missiles in the night sky descending on Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 13, 2025. Still image from TRNN documentary report "Gaza watches Iran bomb Israel" (2025).

On Friday, June 13, after Israeli airstrikes struck Iran, Iran launched a retaliatory barrage of missiles at Israel, hitting targets in Tel Aviv. Palestinians watched Iran’s bombs fall on Israel from across the militarized border separating the Gaza Strip from Israel. The Real News Network spoke with Palestinians on the ground in Gaza, who continue to endure genocidal violence and forced starvation at the hands of Israel, about their reactions to Iran’s airstrikes.

Credits:
Producers: Belal Awad, Leo Erhardt
Videographers: Ruwaida Amer, Mahmoud Al Mashharawi
Video Editor: Leo Erhardt

Transcript

TEXT SLIDE:

On Friday, June 13, after Israeli airstrikes struck Iran, Iran launched a retaliatory barrage of missiles at Israel, hitting targets in Tel Aviv.

Palestinians watched Iran’s bombs fall on Israel from across the militarized border separating the Gaza Strip from Israel. The Real News spoke with Gazans, who continue to endure genocidal violence and forced starvation at the hands of Israel, about their reactions to Iran’s airstrikes. 

RADIO REPORT:

It has been en route for one hour and will land in a few moments, and emotions are high, not just in support but because of Israel’s actions. 

RAJA NADA ABU HAJAR: 

May God bless them. First and foremost. Iran. Because they have stood with the Palestinians. May God stand with all of us and end the war on us both. I saw them. What did you see? I saw the missiles going across, here. What did you feel? I saw them! What did you feel? We felt joy! May God give them victory over all who fight them! Everyone felt happy. People were shouting with joy, that someone is defending Palestine. That there’s someone who stands with us. 

IMAD HARB DAWAS: 

The war between Israel and Iran is a private war between Israel and Iran. Nuclear reactors, uranium enrichment… Whoever thinks that Iran is going to war for the people of Palestine is confused. This war has other military dimensions, a war between Israel and Iran. Of course, we saw the missiles, and we and all the people were hopeful, that the military pressure— of course, our poor people are confused, they hope for an end to the war. The missiles represented hope: that maybe the war on Gaza might finally end. 

JALIL MUSTAFA REZG FIRDAWS: 

Honestly I felt, please God, just push Israel back a bit. That they might leave us alone, a little. My one and only hope is to go and sit on top of the ruins of my house, nothing more. I want nothing. Just to sit on the ruins of my house. That’s it. Killing, death, hunger and displacement. Evacuated from here to there. They’ve gone to war with Iran and forgotten about us. We don’t know our fate, what’s going to happen to us? 

RAJA NADA ABU HAJAR: 

You leave your home not knowing if you will find the rest of your family alive or dead. You leave thinking maybe there will be a strike on the street and you’ll die. This war is not normal: It’s total destruction, not war. War is not like this. We experienced many wars, but we never saw anything like this. 

IMAD HARB DAWAS: 

The Israelis are deliberately starving us. They cut off the internet, so we couldn’t communicate to the rest of the world about the starvation, it’s a war on journalists and on journalism everywhere. Air traffic over Iran and Israel in the wake of escalation is now almost non-existent. 

JALIL MUSTAFA REZG FIRDAWS: 

Honestly the lack of internet has had a big impact on us. We want the world to hear our voices, to see us. We want the world to see us in reality, not just on the news. No: We want

those outside to see how we’re living. We don’t want them to see fabricated news reports. We need the internet to also hear the news from outside. Just like the world should hear us, we want to hear what’s happening in the world: Who is standing with us, who isn’t? Who’s defending us, who isn’t? Where is the Arab world?


This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by Belal Awad, Leo Erhadt, Ruwaida Amer and Mahmoud Al Mashharawi.

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Gaza watches Iran bomb Israel: ‘The missiles represented hope’ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/gaza-watches-iran-bomb-israel-the-missiles-represented-hope/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/gaza-watches-iran-bomb-israel-the-missiles-represented-hope/#respond Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:30:17 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=cbd54847ed4de329db5fe9bf80eabdd3
This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by The Real News Network.

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The Bradbury Group features Palestinian journalist Dr Yousef Aljamal, Middle East report and political panel https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/the-bradbury-group-features-palestinian-journalist-dr-yousef-aljamal-middle-east-report-and-political-panel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/02/the-bradbury-group-features-palestinian-journalist-dr-yousef-aljamal-middle-east-report-and-political-panel/#respond Wed, 02 Jul 2025 00:33:29 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116890 Asia Pacific Report

In the new weekly political podcast, The Bradbury Group, last night presenter Martyn Bradbury talked with visiting Palestinian journalist Dr Yousef Aljamal.

They assess the current situation in Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and what New Zealand should be doing.

As Bradbury, publisher of The Daily Blog, notes, “Fourth Estate public broadcasting is dying — The Bradbury Group will fight back.”


Gaza crisis and Iran tensions.     Video: The Bradbury Group/Radio Waatea

Also in last night’s programme was featured a View From A Far Podcast Special Middle East Report with former intelligence analyst Dr Paul Buchanan and international affairs commentator Selwyn Manning on what will happen next in Iran.

Martyn Bradbury talks to Dr Paul Buchanan (left) and Selwyn Manning on Iran
Martyn Bradbury talks to Dr Paul Buchanan (left) and Selwyn Manning on the Iran crisis and the future. Image: Asia Pacific Report

Political Panel:
Māori Party president John Tamihere,
NZ Herald columnist Simon Wilson
NZCTU economist Craig Renney

Topics:
– The Legacy of Tarsh Kemp
– New coward punch and first responder assault laws — virtue signalling or meaningful policy?
– Cost of living crisis and the failing economy

  • The Bradbury Group is sponsored by Waatea News live at 8pm Tuesdays on ROVA, Youtube, SkyTV and Waatea’s main Facebook page.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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Iran, Zionism, and the Limits of US Control: An Interview with Faramarz Farbod https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/01/iran-zionism-and-the-limits-of-us-control-an-interview-with-faramarz-farbod/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/01/iran-zionism-and-the-limits-of-us-control-an-interview-with-faramarz-farbod/#respond Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:28:57 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159586

The post Iran, Zionism, and the Limits of US Control: An Interview with Faramarz Farbod first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Faramarz Farbod.

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Chris Hedges: Gaza’s Hunger Games – how Israel is weaponising starvation https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/01/chris-hedges-gazas-hunger-games-how-israel-is-weaponising-starvation/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/01/chris-hedges-gazas-hunger-games-how-israel-is-weaponising-starvation/#respond Tue, 01 Jul 2025 12:17:42 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116878 ANALYSIS: By Chris Hedges

Israel’s weaponisation of starvation is how genocides always end.

I covered the insidious effects of orchestrated starvation in the Guatemalan Highlands during the genocidal campaign of General Efraín Ríos Montt, the famine in southern Sudan that left a quarter of a million dead — I walked past the frail and skeletal corpses of families lining roadsides — and later during the war in Bosnia when Serbs cut off food supplies to enclaves such as Srebrencia and Goražde.

Starvation was weaponised by the Ottoman Empire to decimate the Armenians. It was used to kill millions of Ukrainians in the Holodomor in 1932 and 1933.

  • READ MORE: Gaza babies face starvation as Israel blocks entry of baby formula
  • Other Chris Hedges Report articles

It was employed by the Nazis against the Jews in the ghettos in the Second World War. German soldiers used food, as Israel does, like bait. They offered three kilograms of bread and one kilogram of marmalade to lure desperate families in the Warsaw Ghetto onto transports to the death camps.

“There were times when hundreds of people had to wait in line for several days to be ‘deported,’” Marek Edelman writes in The Ghetto Fights. “The number of people anxious to obtain the three kilograms of bread was such that the transports, now leaving twice daily with 12,000 people, could not accommodate them all.”

And when crowds became unruly, as in Gaza, the German troops fired deadly volleys that ripped through emaciated husks of women, children and the elderly.

This tactic is as old as warfare itself.

Ordered to shoot
The report in the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz that Israeli soldiers are ordered to shoot into crowds of Palestinians at aid hubs, with 580 killed and 4,216 wounded, is not a surprise. It is the predictable denouement of the genocide, the inevitable conclusion to a campaign of mass extermination.

Israel, with its targeted assassinations of at least 1400 health care workers, hundreds of United Nations (UN) workers, journalists, police and even poets and academics, its obliteration of multi-story apartment blocks wiping out dozens of families, its shelling of designated “humanitarian zones” where Palestinians huddle under tents, tarps or in the open air, its systematic targeting of UN food distribution centers, bakeries and aid convoys or its sadistic sniper fire that guns down children, long ago illustrated that Palestinians are regarded as vermin worthy only of annihilation.

The blockade of food and humanitarian aid, imposed on Gaza since March 2, is reducing Palestinians to abject dependence. To eat, they must crawl towards their killers and beg. Humiliated, terrified, desperate for a few scraps of food, they are stripped of dignity, autonomy and agency. This is by intent.

Yousef al-Ajouri, 40, explained to Middle East Eye his nightmarish journey to one of four aid hubs set up by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). The hubs are not designed to meet the needs of the Palestinians, who once relied on 400 aid distribution sites, but to lure them from northern Gaza to the south.

Israel, which on Sunday again ordered Palestinians to leave northern Gaza, is steadily expanding its annexation of the coastal strip. Palestinians are corralled like livestock into narrow metal chutes at distribution points which are overseen by heavily armed mercenaries. They receive, if they are one of the fortunate few, a small box of food.

Al-Ajouri, who before the genocide was a taxi driver, lives with his wife, seven children and his mother and father in a tent in al-Saraya, near the middle of Gaza City. He set out to an aid hub at Salah al-Din Road near the Netzarim corridor, to find some food for his children, who he said cry constantly “because of how hungry they are.”

On the advice of his neighbour in the tent next to him, he dressed in loose clothing “so that I could run and be agile.” He carried a bag for canned and packaged goods because the crush of the crowds meant “no one was able to carry the boxes the aid came in.”

Massive crowds
He left at about 9 pm with five other men “including an engineer and a teacher,” and “children aged 10 and 12.” They did not take the official route designated by the Israeli army. The massive crowds converging on the aid point along the official route ensure that most never get close enough to receive food.

Instead, they walked in the darkness in areas exposed to Israeli gunfire, often having to crawl to avoid being seen.

“As I crawled, I looked over, and to my surprise, saw several women and elderly people taking the same treacherous route as us,” he explained. “At one point, there was a barrage of live gunfire all around me. We hid behind a destroyed building. Anyone who moved or made a noticeable motion was immediately shot by snipers.

“Next to me was a tall, light-haired young man using the flashlight on his phone to guide him. The others yelled at him to turn it off. Seconds later, he was shot. He collapsed to the ground and lay there bleeding, but no one could help or move him. He died within minutes.”

He passed six bodies along the route who had been shot dead by Israeli soldiers.

Al-Ajouri reached the hub at 2 am, the designated time for aid distribution. He saw a green light turned on ahead of him which signaled that aid was about to be distributed. Thousands began to run towards the light, pushing, shoving and trampling each other. He fought his way through the crowd until he reached the aid.

“I started feeling around for the aid boxes and grabbed a bag that felt like rice,” he said. “But just as I did, someone else snatched it from my hands. I tried to hold on, but he threatened to stab me with his knife. Most people there were carrying knives, either to defend themselves or to steal from others.

Boxes were emptied
“Eventually, I managed to grab four cans of beans, a kilogram of bulgur, and half a kilogram of pasta. Within moments, the boxes were empty. Most of the people there, including women, children and the elderly, got nothing. Some begged others to share. But no one could afford to give up what they managed to get.”

The US contractors and Israeli soldiers overseeing the mayhem laughed and pointed their weapons at the crowd. Some filmed with their phones.

“Minutes later, red smoke grenades were thrown into the air,” he remembered. “Someone told me that it was the signal to evacuate the area. After that, heavy gunfire began. Me, Khalil and a few others headed to al-Awda Hospital in Nuseirat because our friend Wael had injured his hand during the journey.

“I was shocked by what I saw at the hospital. There were at least 35 martyrs lying dead on the ground in one of the rooms. A doctor told me they had all been brought in that same day. They were each shot in the head or chest while queuing near the aid center. Their families were waiting for them to come home with food and ingredients. Now, they were corpses.”

GHF is a Mossad-funded creation of Israel’s Defense Ministry that contracts with UG Solutions and Safe Reach Solutions, run by former members of the CIA and US Special Forces. GHF is headed by Reverend Johnnie Moore, a far-right Christian Zionist with close ties to Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

The organisation has also contracted anti-Hamas drug-smuggling gangs to provide security at aid sites.

As Chris Gunness, a former spokesperson for the United Nations Relief and Work Agency (UNRWA) told Al Jazeera, GHF is “aid washing,” a way to mask the reality that “people are being starved into submission.”

Disregarded ICC ruling
Israel, along with the US and European countries that provide weapons to sustain the genocide, have chosen to disregard the January 2024 ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) which demanded immediate protection for civilians in Gaza and widespread provision of humanitarian assistance.

"It's a killing field" claim headline in Ha'aretz newspaper
“It’s a killing field” says a headline in the Ha’aretz newspaper. Image: Ha’aretz screenshot APR

Ha’aretz, in its article headlined “‘It’s a Killing Field’: IDF Soldiers Ordered to Shoot Deliberately at Unarmed Gazans Waiting for Humanitarian Aid” reported that Israeli commanders order soldiers to open fire on crowds to keep them away from aid sites or disperse them.

“The distribution centers typically open for just one hour each morning,” Haaretz writes. “According to officers and soldiers who served in their areas, the IDF fires at people who arrive before opening hours to prevent them from approaching, or again after the centers close, to disperse them. Since some of the shooting incidents occurred at night — ahead of the opening — it’s possible that some civilians couldn’t see the boundaries of the designated area.”

“It’s a killing field,” one soldier told Ha’aretz. “Where I was stationed, between one and five people were killed every day. They’re treated like a hostile force — no crowd-control measures, no tear gas — just live fire with everything imaginable: heavy machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars. Then, once the center opens, the shooting stops, and they know they can approach. Our form of communication is gunfire.”

“We open fire early in the morning if someone tries to get in line from a few hundred meters away, and sometimes we just charge at them from close range. But there’s no danger to the forces,” the soldier explained, “I’m not aware of a single instance of return fire. There’s no enemy, no weapons.”

He said the deployment at the aid sites is known as “Operation Salted Fish,” a reference to the Israeli name for the children’s game “Red light, green light.” The game was featured in the first episode of the South Korean dystopian thriller Squid Game, in which financially desperate people are killed as they battle each other for money.

Civilian infrastructure obliterated
Israel has obliterated the civilian and humanitarian infrastructure in Gaza. It has reduced Palestinians, half a million of whom face starvation, into desperate herds. The goal is to break Palestinians, to make them malleable and entice them to leave Gaza, never to return.

There is talk from the Trump White House about a ceasefire. But don’t be fooled. Israel has nothing left to destroy. Its saturation bombing over 20 months has reduced Gaza to a moonscape. Gaza is uninhabitable, a toxic wilderness where Palestinians, living amid broken slabs of concrete and pools of raw sewage, lack food and clean water, fuel, shelter, electricity, medicine and an infrastructure to survive.

The final impediment to the annexation of Gaza are the Palestinians themselves. They are the primary target. Starvation is the weapon of choice.

Chris Hedges is a Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist who was a foreign correspondent for 15 years for The New York Times, where he served as the Middle East bureau chief and Balkan bureau chief for the paper. He is the host of show “The Chris Hedges Report”. This article is republished from his X account.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Operation Midnight Hammer: Were Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Damaged? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/01/operation-midnight-hammer-were-irans-nuclear-facilities-damaged/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/01/operation-midnight-hammer-were-irans-nuclear-facilities-damaged/#respond Tue, 01 Jul 2025 12:00:38 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159560 The aftermath of Operation Midnight Hammer, a strike by the US Air Force on three nuclear facilities in Iran authorized by President Donald Trump on June 22, was raucous and triumphant. But that depended on what company you were keeping. The mission involved the bombing of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, the uranium-enrichment facility at […]

The post Operation Midnight Hammer: Were Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Damaged? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
The aftermath of Operation Midnight Hammer, a strike by the US Air Force on three nuclear facilities in Iran authorized by President Donald Trump on June 22, was raucous and triumphant. But that depended on what company you were keeping. The mission involved the bombing of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, the uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz, and the uranium-conversion facility in Isfahan.  The Israeli Air Force had already attacked the last two facilities, sparing Fordow for the singular weaponry available for the USAF.

The Fordow site was of particular interest, located some eighty to a hundred metres underground and cocooned by protective concrete. For its purported destruction, B-2 Spirit stealth bombers were used to drop GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator “bunker buster” bombs. All in all, approximately 75 precision-guided weapons were used in the operation, along with 125 aircraft and a guided missile submarine.

Trump was never going to be anything other than optimistic about the result. “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images,” he blustered. “Obliteration is an accurate term!”

At the Pentagon press conference following the attack, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth bubbled with enthusiasm. “The order we received from our commander in chief was focused, it was powerful, and it was clear. We devastated the Iranian nuclear program.” The US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, was confident that the facilities had been subjected to severe punishment. “Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.” Adding to Caine’s remarks, Hegseth stated that, “The battle damage assessment is ongoing, but our initial assessment, as the Chairman said, is that all of our precision munitions struck where we wanted them to strike and had the desired effect.”

Resort to satellite imagery was always going to take place, and Maxar Technologies willingly supplied the material. “A layer of grey-blue ash caused by the airstrikes [on Fordow] is seen across a large swathe of the area,” the company noted in a statement. “Additionally, several of the tunnel entrances that lead into the underground facility are blocked with dirt following the airstrikes.”

The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, John Ratcliffe, also added his voice to the merry chorus that the damage had been significant. “CIA can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran’s Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted airstrikes.” The assessment included “new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.”

Israeli sources were also quick to stroke Trump’s already outsized ego. The Israel Atomic Energy Commission opined that the strikes, combined with Israel’s own efforts, had “set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.” IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir’s view was that the damage to the nuclear program was sufficient to have “set it back by years, I repeat, years.”

The chief of the increasingly discredited International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, flirted with some initial speculation, but was mindful of necessary caveats. In a statement to an emergency meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors, he warned that, “At this time, no one, including the IAEA, is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow.” Cue the speculation: “Given the explosive payload utilised and extreme(ly) vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred.”

This was a parade begging to be rained on. CNN and The New York Times supplied it. Referring to preliminary classified findings in a Defense Intelligence Agency assessment running for five pages, the paper reported that the bombing of the three sites had “set back the country’s nuclear program by only a few months”. The strikes had sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities, but they were not successful in precipitating a collapse of the underground buildings. Sceptical expertise murmured through the report: to destroy the facility at Fordow would require “waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.”

Then came the issue of the nuclear material in question, which Iran still retained control over. The fate of over 400 kg of uranium, which had been enriched to 60% purity, is unclear, as is the number of surviving or hidden centrifuges. Iran had already informed the IAEA on June 13 that “special measures” would be taken to protect nuclear materials and equipment under IAEA safeguards, a feature provided under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Any transfer of nuclear material from a safeguarded facility to another location, however, would have to be declared to the agency, something bound to be increasingly unlikely given the proposed suspension of cooperation with the IAEA by Iran’s parliament.

After mulling over the attacks for a week, Grossi revisited the matter. The attacks on the facilities had caused severe, though “not total” damage. “Frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there.” Tehran could, “in a matter of months,” have “a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium.” Iran still had the “industrial and technological” means to recommence the process.

Efforts to question the thoroughness of Operation Midnight Hammer did not sit well with the Trump administration. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt worked herself into a state on any cautionary reporting, treating it as a libellous blemish. “The leaking of this alleged report is a clear attempt to demean President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program,” she fumed in a statement. “Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets.”

Hegseth similarly raged against the importance placed on the DIA report. In a press conference on June 26, he bemoaned the tendency of the press corps to “cheer against Trump so hard, it’s like in your DNA and in your blood”. The scribblers had to “cheer against the efficacy of these strikes” with “half-truths, spun information, leaked information”. Trump, for his part, returned to familiar ground, attacking any questioning narrative as “Fake News”. CNN, he seethed, had some of the dumbest anchors in the business. With malicious glee, he claimed knowledge of rumours that reporters from both CNN and The New York Times were going to be sacked for making up those “FAKE stories on the Iran Nuclear sites because they got it so wrong.”

A postmodern nonsense has descended on the damage assessments regarding Iran’s nuclear program, leaving the way clear for overremunerated soothsayers. But there was nothing postmodern in the incalculable damage done to the law of nations, a body of acknowledged rules rendered brittle and breakable before the rapacious legislators of the jungle.

The post Operation Midnight Hammer: Were Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Damaged? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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Australia Backs US Strike on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/30/australia-backs-us-strike-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/30/australia-backs-us-strike-on-iran/#respond Mon, 30 Jun 2025 07:34:27 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159551 The initial statement from Australian government sources was one of constipated caution and clenching wariness. Senator Penny Wong’s time as head of the Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs has always been about how things come out, a process unsatisfyingly uncertain and unyielding in detail. Stick to the safe middle ground and sod the rest. […]

The post Australia Backs US Strike on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
The initial statement from Australian government sources was one of constipated caution and clenching wariness. Senator Penny Wong’s time as head of the Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs has always been about how things come out, a process unsatisfyingly uncertain and unyielding in detail. Stick to the safe middle ground and sod the rest. These were the cautionary words of an Australian government spokesperson on June 22: “We have been clear that Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program has been a threat to international peace and security.”

That insipid statement was in response to Operation Midnight Hammer, a strike on three nuclear facilities in Iran by the US Air Force, authorised by US President Donald Trump on June 22. With such spectacular violence came the hollow call for diplomatic prudence and restraint. There was an important difference: Tehran, not Israel or Washington, would be the subject of scolding. Iran would not be permitted nuclear weapons but jaw jaw was better than war war. “We note the US president’s statement that now is the time for peace,” stated the spokesperson. “The security situation in the region is highly volatile. We continue to call for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy.”

Within twenty-four hours, that anodyne position had morphed into one of unconditional approval for what was a breach of the United Nations Charter, notably its injunction against the threatened or actual use of force against sovereign states in the absence of authorisation by the UN Security Council or the necessity of self-defence. “The world has long agreed Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon, and we support action to prevent this. That is what this is,” accepted Wong.

This assessment was not only silly but colossally misguided. It would have been an absurd proposition for the US to make the claim that they were under imminent threat of attack, a condition seen as necessary for a pre-emptive strike. This was a naked submission to the wishes of a small, destabilising and sole (undeclared) nuclear power in the Middle East, a modern territorial plunderer celebratory of ethnonational supremacy.

The Australian position, along a number of European states, also failed to acknowledge the General Conference Resolutions of the International Atomic Energy Agency (in particular GC(XIXI)/RES/444 and GC(XXIV)/RES/533) declaring that “any armed attack on and threat against nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the United Nations Charter, international law and the Statute of the Agency.”

Wong also misrepresented the circumstances under which Iran was told they could negotiate over their nuclear program, erroneously accepting the line from the Trump administration that Tehran had “an opportunity to comply”. Neither the US diplomatic channel, which only permitted a narrow, fleeting corridor for actual negotiations, nor Israel’s wilful distortion of the IAEA’s assessment of Iran’s uranium enrichment plans and prevarication, ever gave chance for a credible resolution. Much like the calamitous, unlawful invasion of Iraq in 2003 by a crew of brigand nations – the merry trio of US, UK and Australia stood out – the autopilot to war was set, scornful of international law.

Wong’s shift from constipated caution to free flow approval for the US attack, with its absent merits and weighty illegalities, was also a craven capitulation to the warmonger class permanently mesmerised by the villain school of foreign relations. This cerebrally challenged view sees few problems with attacking nuclear facilities, the radioactive dangers of doing so, and the merits of a state having them in the first place.

The US attack on Iran found hearty approval among the remnants of the conservative opposition, who tend to specialise in the view that pursuing a pro-Israeli line, right, wrong, or murderous, is the way to go. Liberal Senator and former Australian ambassador to Israel, David Sharma, thought the Albanese government’s initial response “underwhelming and perplexing”, claiming that support for this shredding of international law “a straightforward position for Australia to adopt”. Sharma is clearly getting rusty on his law of nations.

His side of politics is also of the view that the attacked party here – Iran – must forgo any silly notion of self-defence and retaliation and repair to the table of diplomacy in head bowed humiliation. “We want to see Iran come to the negotiating table to verify where that 400 kilos of enriched uranium is,” stated a very stern opposition home affairs minister, Andrew Hastie. “I’m very glad to see that Penny Wong has essentially endorsed our position and I’m glad we have bipartisanship on this.”

Australia’s response has been that of the weary poltroon. Little has been asked about Canberra’s standout complicity in assisting the US imperium fulfil its global reach when it comes to striking targets. The role of the intelligence signals facility in Pine Gap, cutely and inaccurately called a joint venture, always lends its critical role to directing the US war machine through its heavy reliance on satellite technology. Wong, when asked about the role played by the facility in facilitating the attacks on Iran, had little to say. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was also cold towards disclosing any details. “We are upfront, but we don’t talk about intelligence, obviously. But we’ve made very clear this was unilateral action taken by the United States.”

At least on this occasion, Australia did not add its forces to an illegal adventure, as it all too wilfully did in 2003. Then, Iraq was invaded on the spurious grounds that weapons of mass destruction not only existed but would somehow be used either by the regime of Saddam Hussein or fictional proxies he might eventually supply. History forever shows that no such weapons were found, nor proxies equipped. But the Albanese government has shown not only historical illiteracy but an amnesia on the matter. Unfortunately, it’s the sort of amnesia that has become contagious, afflicting a goodly number of Washington’s satellites, vassals and friendly states.

The post Australia Backs US Strike on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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Clark warns in new Pacific book renewed nuclear tensions pose ‘existential threat to humanity’ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/29/clark-warns-in-new-pacific-book-renewed-nuclear-tensions-pose-existential-threat-to-humanity/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/29/clark-warns-in-new-pacific-book-renewed-nuclear-tensions-pose-existential-threat-to-humanity/#respond Sun, 29 Jun 2025 12:01:29 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116808 Asia Pacific Report

Former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark has warned the country needs to maintain its nuclear-free policy as a “fundamental tenet” of its independent foreign policy in the face of gathering global storm clouds.

Writing in a new book being published next week, she says “nuclear war is an existential threat to humanity. Far from receding, the threat of use of nuclear weapons is ever present.

“The Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists now sits at 89 seconds to midnight,” she says in the prologue to journalist and media academic David Robie’s book Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior.

  • READ MORE: 40 years on: Reflecting on Rainbow Warrior’s legacy, fight against nuclear colonialism
  • Other Eyes of Fire reports

Writing before the US surprise attack with B-2 stealth bombers and “bunker-buster” bombs on three Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, Clark says “the Middle East is a tinder box with the failure of the Iran nuclear deal and with Israel widely believed to possess nuclear weapons”.

The Doomsday Clock references the Ukraine war theatre where “use of nuclear weapons has been floated by Russia”.

Also, the arms control architecture for Europe is unravelling, leaving the continent much less secure. India and Pakistan both have nuclear arsenals, she says.

“North Korea continues to develop its nuclear weapons capacity.”

‘Serious ramifications’
Clark, who was also United Nations Development Programme administrator from 2009 to 2017, a member of The Elders group of global leaders founded by Nelson Mandela in 2007, and is an advocate for multilateralism and nuclear disarmament, says an outright military conflict between China and the United States “would be one between two nuclear powers with serious ramifications for East Asia, Southeast Asia, the Pacific, and far beyond.”

She advises New Zealand to be wary of Australia’s decision to enter a nuclear submarine purchase programme with the United States.

“There has been much speculation about a potential Pillar Two of the AUKUS agreement which would see others in the region become partners in the development of advanced weaponry,” Clark says.

“This is occurring in the context of rising tensions between the United States and China.

“Many of us share the view that New Zealand should be a voice for de-escalation, not for enthusiastic expansion of nuclear submarine fleets in the Pacific and the development
of more lethal weaponry.”

Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior . . . publication July 2025. Image: Little Island Press

In the face of the “current global turbulence, New Zealand needs to reemphasise the principles and values which drove its nuclear-free legislation and its advocacy for a nuclear-free South Pacific and global nuclear disarmament.

Clark says that the years 1985 – the Rainbow Warrior was bombed by French secret agents on 10 July 1985 — and 1986 were critical years in the lead up to New Zealand’s nuclear-free legislation in 1987.

“New Zealanders were clear – we did not want to be defended by nuclear weapons. We wanted our country to be a force for diplomacy and for dialogue, not for warmongering.”

Chronicles humanitarian voyage
The book Eyes of Fire chronicles the humanitarian voyage by the Greenpeace flagship to the Marshall Islands to relocate 320 Rongelap Islanders who were suffering serious community health consequences from the US nuclear tests in the 1950s.

The author, Dr David Robie, founder of the Pacific Media Centre at Auckland University of Technology, was the only journalist on board the Rainbow Warrior in the weeks leading up to the bombing.

His book recounts the voyage and nuclear colonialism, and the transition to climate justice as the major challenge facing the Pacific, although the “Indo-Pacific” rivalries between the US, France and China mean that geopolitical tensions are recalling the Cold War era in the Pacific.

Dr Robie is also critical of Indonesian colonialism in the Melanesian region of the Pacific, arguing that a just-outcome for Jakarta-ruled West Papua and also the French territories of Kanaky New Caledonia and “French” Polynesia are vital for peace and stability in the region.

Eyes of Fire is being published by Little Island Press, which also produced one of his earlier books, Don’t Spoil My Beautiful Face: Media, Mayhem and Human Rights in the Pacific.

  • Greenpeace executive director Dr Russel Norman is launching Eyes of Fire at the Ellen Melville Centre Pioneer Women’s Hall at 6pm on the bombing anniversary day, July 10, following a memorial vigil in the morning on board the current flagship Rainbow Warrior III.
  • Eyes of Fire microsite (Little island Press)


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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How they got Trump to bomb Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/29/how-they-got-trump-to-bomb-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/29/how-they-got-trump-to-bomb-iran/#respond Sun, 29 Jun 2025 03:40:33 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=b9a3604bf0b83322f5b5f8c8f5c85694
This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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‘Bridge for peace – not more bombs,’ say CNMI Gaza protesters https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/29/bridge-for-peace-not-more-bombs-say-cnmi-gaza-protesters/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/29/bridge-for-peace-not-more-bombs-say-cnmi-gaza-protesters/#respond Sun, 29 Jun 2025 03:23:01 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116790 By Bryan Manabat in Saipan

Advocacy groups in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) disrupted the US Department of Defense’s public meeting this week, which tackled proposed military training plans on Tinian, voicing strong opposition to further militarisation in the Marianas.

Members of the Marianas for Palestine, Prutehi Guahan and Commonwealth670 burst into the public hearing at the Crowne Plaza hotel in Garapan, chanting, “No build-up! No war!” and “Free, free, Palestine!”

As the chanting echoed throughout the venue on Wednesday, the DOD continued the proceedings to gather public input on its CNMI Joint Military Training proposal.

  • READ MORE: Other protests for Palestine reports

The US plan includes live-fire ranges, a base camp, communications infrastructure, and a biosecurity facility. Officials said feedback from Tinian, Saipan and Rota communities would help shape the final environmental impact statement.

Salam Castro Younis, of Chamorro-Palestinian descent, linked the military expansion to global conflicts in Gaza and Iran.

“More militarisation isn’t the answer,” Younis said. “We don’t need to lose more land. Diplomacy and peace are the way forward – not more bombs.”

Saipan-born Chamorro activist Anufat Pangelinan echoed Younis’s sentiment, citing research connecting climate change and environmental degradation to global militarisation.

‘No part of a war’
“We don’t want to be part of a war we don’t support,” he said. “The Marianas shouldn’t be a tip of the spear – we should be a bridge for peace.”

The groups argue that CJMT could make Tinian a target, increasing regional hostility.

“We want to sustain ourselves without the looming threat of war,” Pangelinan added.

In response to public concerns from the 2015 draft EIS, the DOD scaled back its plans, reducing live-fire ranges from 14 to 2 and eliminating artillery, rocket and mortar exercises.

Mark Hashimoto, executive director of the US Marine Corps Forces Pacific, emphasised the importance of community input.

“The proposal includes live-fire ranges, a base camp, communications infrastructure and a biosecurity facility,” he said.

Hashimoto noted that military lease lands on Tinian could support quarterly exercises involving up to 1000 personnel.

Economic impact concerns
Tinian residents expressed concerns about economic impacts, job opportunities, noise, environmental effects and further strain on local infrastructure.

The DOD is expected to issue a Record of Decision by spring 2026, balancing public feedback with national security and environmental considerations.

In a joint statement earlier this week, the activist groups said the people of Guam and the CNMI were “burdened by processes not meant to serve their home’s interests”.

The groups were referring to public input requirements for military plans involving the use of Guam and CNMI lands and waters for war training and testing.

“As colonies of the United States, the Mariana Islands continue to be forced into conflicts not of our people’s making,” the statement read.

“ After decades of displacement and political disenfranchisement, our communities are now in subservient positions that force an obligation to extend our lands, airspace, and waters for use in America’s never-ending cycle of war.”

They also lamented the “intense environmental degradation” and “growing housing and food insecurity” resulting from military expansion.

“Like other Pacific Islanders, we are also overrepresented disproportionately in the military and in combat,” they said.

“Meanwhile, prices on imported food, fuel, and essential goods will continue to rise with inflation and war.”

Republished from Pacific Island Times.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Why manufacturing consent for war with Iran failed this time https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/why-manufacturing-consent-for-war-with-iran-failed-this-time/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/why-manufacturing-consent-for-war-with-iran-failed-this-time/#respond Sat, 28 Jun 2025 19:02:21 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116801 COMMENTARY: By Ahmad Ibsais

On June 22, American warplanes crossed into Iranian airspace and dropped 14 massive bombs.

The attack was not in response to a provocation; it came on the heels of illegal Israeli aggression that took the lives of more than 600 Iranians.

This was a return to something familiar and well-practised: an empire bombing innocents across the orientalist abstraction called “the Middle East”.

  • READ MORE: Eugene Doyle: Why Asia-Pacific should be cheering for Iran and not US bomb-based statecraft
  • Other Israeli war on Middle East reports

That night, US President Donald Trump, flanked by his vice-president and two state secretaries, told the world: “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace”.

There is something chilling about how bombs are baptised with the language of diplomacy and how destruction is dressed in the garments of stability. To call that peace is not merely a misnomer; it is a criminal distortion.

But what is peace in this world, if not submission to the West? And what is diplomacy, if not the insistence that the attacked plead with their attackers?

In the 12 days that Israel’s illegal assault on Iran lasted, images of Iranian children pulled from the wreckage remained absent from the front pages of Western media. In their place were lengthy features about Israelis hiding in fortified bunkers.

Victimhood serving narrative
Western media, fluent in the language of erasure, broadcasts only the victimhood that serves the war narrative.

And that is not just in its coverage of Iran. For 20 months now, the people of Gaza have been starved and incinerated. By the official count, more than 55,000 lives have been taken; realistic estimates put the number at hundreds of thousands.

Every hospital in Gaza has been bombed. Most schools have been attacked and destroyed.

Leading human rights groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have already declared that Israel is committing genocide, and yet, most Western media would not utter that word and would add elaborate caveats when someone does dare say it live on TV.

Presenters and editors would do anything but recognise Israel’s unending violence in an active voice.

Despite detailed evidence of war crimes, the Israeli military has faced no media censure, no criticism or scrutiny. Its generals hold war meetings near civilian buildings, and yet, there are no media cries of Israelis being used as “human shields”.

Israeli army and government officials are regularly caught lying or making genocidal statements, and yet, their words are still reported as “the truth”.

Bias over Palestinian deaths
A recent study found that on the BBC, Israeli deaths received 33 times more coverage per fatality than Palestinian deaths, despite Palestinians dying at a rate of 34 to 1 compared with Israelis. Such bias is no exception, it is the rule for Western media.

Like Palestine, Iran is described in carefully chosen language. Iran is never framed as a nation, only as a regime. Iran is not a government, but a threat — not a people, but a problem.

The word “Islamic” is affixed to it like a slur in every report. This is instrumental in quietly signalling that Muslim resistance to Western domination must be extinguished.

Iran does not possess nuclear weapons; Israel and the United States do. And yet only Iran is cast as an existential threat to world order.

Because the problem is not what Iran holds, but what it refuses to surrender. It has survived coups, sanctions, assassinations, and sabotage. It has outlived every attempt to starve, coerce, or isolate it into submission.

It is a state that, despite the violence hurled at it, has not yet been broken.

And so the myth of the threat of weapons of mass destruction becomes indispensable. It is the same myth that was used to justify the illegal invasion of Iraq. For three decades, American headlines have whispered that Iran is just “weeks away” from the bomb, three decades of deadlines that never arrive, of predictions that never materialise.

Fear over false ‘nuclear threat’
But fear, even when unfounded, is useful. If you can keep people afraid, you can keep them quiet. Say “nuclear threat” often enough, and no one will think to ask about the children killed in the name of “keeping the world safe”.

This is the modus operandi of Western media: a media architecture not built to illuminate truth, but to manufacture permission for violence, to dress state aggression in technical language and animated graphics, to anaesthetise the public with euphemisms.

Time Magazine does not write about the crushed bones of innocents under the rubble in Tehran or Rafah, it writes about “The New Middle East” with a cover strikingly similar to the one it used to propagandise regime change in Iraq 22 years ago.

But this is not 2003. After decades of war, and livestreamed genocide, most Americans no longer buy into the old slogans and distortions. When Israel attacked Iran, a poll showed that only 16 percent of US respondents supported the US joining the war.

After Trump ordered the air strikes, another poll confirmed this resistance to manufactured consent: only 36 percent of respondents supported the move, and only 32 percent supported continuing the bombardment

The failure to manufacture consent for war with Iran reveals a profound shift in the American consciousness. Americans remember the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq that left hundreds of thousands of Afghans and Iraqis dead and an entire region in flames. They remember the lies about weapons of mass destruction and democracy and the result: the thousands of American soldiers dead and the tens of thousands maimed.

They remember the humiliating retreat from Afghanistan after 20 years of war and the never-ending bloody entanglement in Iraq.

Low social justice spending
At home, Americans are told there is no money for housing, healthcare, or education, but there is always money for bombs, for foreign occupations, for further militarisation. More than 700,000 Americans are homeless, more than 40 million live under the official poverty line and more than 27 million have no health insurance.

And yet, the US government maintains by far the highest defence budget in the world.

Americans know the precarity they face at home, but they are also increasingly aware of the impact US imperial adventurism has abroad. For 20 months now, they have watched a US-sponsored genocide broadcast live.

They have seen countless times on their phones bloodied Palestinian children pulled from rubble while mainstream media insists, this is Israeli “self-defence”.

The old alchemy of dehumanising victims to excuse their murder has lost its power. The digital age has shattered the monopoly on narrative that once made distant wars feel abstract and necessary. Americans are now increasingly refusing to be moved by the familiar war drumbeat.

The growing fractures in public consent have not gone unnoticed in Washington. Trump, ever the opportunist, understands that the American public has no appetite for another war.

‘Don’t drop bombs’
And so, on June 24, he took to social media to announce, “the ceasefire is in effect”, telling Israel to “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS,” after the Israeli army continued to attack Iran.

Trump, like so many in the US and Israeli political elites, wants to call himself a peacemaker while waging war. To leaders like him, peace has come to mean something altogether different: the unimpeded freedom to commit genocide and other atrocities while the world watches on.

But they have failed to manufacture our consent. We know what peace is, and it does not come dressed in war. It is not dropped from the sky.

Peace can only be achieved where there is freedom. And no matter how many times they strike, the people remain, from Palestine to Iran — unbroken, unbought, and unwilling to kneel to terror.

Ahmad Ibsais is a first-generation Palestinian American and law student who writes the newsletter State of Siege.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Eugene Doyle: Why Asia-Pacific should be cheering for Iran and not US bomb-based statecraft https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/eugene-doyle-why-asia-pacific-should-be-cheering-for-iran-and-not-us-bomb-based-statecraft/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/eugene-doyle-why-asia-pacific-should-be-cheering-for-iran-and-not-us-bomb-based-statecraft/#respond Sat, 28 Jun 2025 06:36:33 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116766 ANALYSIS: By Eugene Doyle

Setting aside any thoughts I may have about theocratic rulers (whether they be in Tel Aviv or Tehran), I am personally glad that Iran was able to hold out against the US-Israeli attacks this month.

The ceasefire, however, will only be a pause in the long-running campaign to destabilise, weaken and isolate Iran. Regime change or pariah status are both acceptable outcomes for the US-Israeli dyad.

The good news for my region is that Iran’s resilience pushes back what could be a looming calamity: the US pivot to Asia and a heightened risk of a war on China.

  • READ MORE: Ramzy Baroud: The fallout — winners and losers from the Israeli war on Iran
  • Caitlin Johnstone: The fictional mental illness that only affects enemies of the Western empire
  • Other Israeli war on Gaza reports

There are three major pillars to the Eurasian order that is going through a slow, painful and violent birth.  Iran is the weakest.  If Iran falls, war in our region — intended or unintended – becomes vastly more likely.

Mainstream New Zealanders and Australians suffer from an understandable complacency: war is what happens to other, mainly darker people or Slavs.

“Tomorrow”, people in this part of the world naively think, “will always be like yesterday”.

That could change, particularly for the Australians, in the kind of unfamiliar flash-boom Israelis experienced this month following their attack on Iran. And here’s why.

US chooses war to re-shape Middle East
Back in 2001, as many will recall, retired General Wesley Clark, former Supreme Commander of NATO forces in Europe, was visiting buddies in the Pentagon. He learnt something he wasn’t supposed to: the Bush administration had made plans in the febrile post 9/11 environment to attack seven Muslim countries.

In the firing line were: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon, Gaddafi’s Libya, Somalia, Sudan and the biggest prize of all — the Islamic Republic of Iran.

One would have to say that the project, pursued by successive presidents, both Democrat and Republican, has been a great success — if you discount the fact that a couple of million human beings, most of them civilians, many of them women and children, nearly all of them innocents, were slaughtered, starved to death or otherwise disposed of.

With the exception of Iran, those countries have endured chaos and civil strife for long painful years.  A triumph of American bomb-based statecraft.

Now — with Muammar Gaddafi raped and murdered (“We came, we saw, he died”, Hillary Clinton chuckled on camera the same day), Saddam Hussein hanged, Hezbollah decapitated, Assad in Moscow, the genocide in full swing in Palestine — the US and Israel were finally able to turn their guns — or, rather, bombs — on the great prize: Iran.

Iran’s missiles have checked US-Israel for time being
Things did not go to plan. Former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman pointed out this week that for the first time Israel got a taste of the medicine it likes to dispense to its neighbours.

Iran’s missiles successfully turned the much-vaunted Iron Dome into an Iron Sieve and, perhaps momentarily, has achieved deterrence. If Iran falls, the US will be able to do what Barack Obama and Joe Biden only salivated over — a serious pivot to Asia.

Could great power rivalry turn Asia-Pacific into powderkeg?
For us in Asia-Pacific a major US pivot to Asia will mean soaring defence budgets to support militarisation, aggressive containment of China, provocative naval deployments, more sanctions, muscling smaller states, increased numbers of bases, new missile systems, info wars, threats and the ratcheting up rhetoric — all of which will bring us ever-closer to the powderkeg.

Sounds utterly mad? Sounds devoid of rationality? Lacking commonsense? Welcome to our world — bellum Americanum — as we gormlessly march flame in hand towards the tinderbox. War is not written in the stars, we can change tack and rediscover diplomacy, restraint, and peaceful coexistence. Or is that too much to ask?

Back in the days of George W Bush, radical American thinkers like Robert Kagan, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld created the Project for a New American Century and developed the policy, adopted by succeeding presidents, that promotes “the belief that America should seek to preserve and extend its position of global leadership by maintaining the preeminence of US military forces”.

It reconfirmed the neoconservative American dogma that no power should be allowed to rise in any region to become a regional hegemon; anything and everything necessary should be done to ensure continued American primacy, including the resort to war.

What has changed since those days are two crucial, epoch-making events: the re-emergence of Russia as a great power, albeit the weakest of the three, and the emergence of China as a genuine peer competitor to the USA. Professor  John Mearsheimer’s insights are well worth studying on this topic.

The three pillars of multipolarity
A new world order really is being born. As geopolitical thinkers like Professor Glenn Diesen point out, it will, if it is not killed in the cradle, replace the US unipolar world order that has existed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Many countries are involved in its birthing, including major players like India and Brazil and all the countries that are part of BRICS.  Three countries, however, are central to the project: Iran, Russia and, most importantly, China.  All three are in the crosshairs of the Western empire.

If Iran, Russia and China survive as independent entities, they will partially fulfill Halford MacKinder’s early 20th century heartland theory that whoever dominates Eurasia will rule the world. I don’t think MacKinder, however, foresaw cooperative multipolarity on the Eurasian landmass — which is one of the goals of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) – as an option.

That, increasingly, appears to be the most likely trajectory with multiple powerful states that will not accept domination, be that from China or the US.  That alone should give us cause for hope.

Drunk on power since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has launched war after war and brought us to the current abandonment of economic sanity (the sanctions-and-tariff global pandemic) and diplomatic normalcy (kill any peace negotiators you see) — and an anything-goes foreign policy (including massive crimes against humanity).

We have also reached — thanks in large part to these same policies — what a former US national security advisor warned must be avoided at all costs. Back in the 1990s, Zbigniew Brzezinski said, “The most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran.”

Belligerent and devoid of sound strategy, the Biden and Trump administrations have achieved just that.

Can Asia-Pacific avoid being dragged into an American war on China?
Turning to our region, New Zealand and Australia’s governments cleave to yesterday: a white-dominated world led by the USA.  We have shown ourselves indifferent to massacres, ethnic cleansing and wars of aggression launched by our team.

To avoid war — or a permanent fear of looming war — in our own backyards, we need to encourage sanity and diplomacy; we need to stay close to the US but step away from the military alliances they are forming, such as AUKUS which is aimed squarely at China.

Above all, our defence and foreign affairs elites need to grow new neural pathways and start to think with vision and not place ourselves on the losing side of history. Independent foreign policy settings based around peace, defence not aggression, diplomacy not militarisation, would take us in the right direction.

Personally I look forward to the day the US and its increasingly belligerent vassals are pushed back into the ranks of ordinary humanity. I fear the US far more than I do China.

Despite the reflexive adherence to the US that our leaders are stuck on, we should not, if we value our lives and our cultures, allow ourselves to be part of this mad, doomed project.

The US empire is heading into a blood-drenched sunset; their project will fail and the 500-year empire of the White West will end — starting and finishing with genocide.

Every day I atheistically pray that leaders or a movement will emerge to guide our antipodean countries out of the clutches of a violent and increasingly incoherent USA.

America is not our friend. China is not our enemy. Tomorrow gives birth to a world that we should look forward to and do the little we can to help shape.

Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Eugene Doyle: Why Asia-Pacific should be cheering for Iran and not US bomb-based statecraft https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/eugene-doyle-why-asia-pacific-should-be-cheering-for-iran-and-not-us-bomb-based-statecraft-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/eugene-doyle-why-asia-pacific-should-be-cheering-for-iran-and-not-us-bomb-based-statecraft-2/#respond Sat, 28 Jun 2025 06:36:33 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116766 ANALYSIS: By Eugene Doyle

Setting aside any thoughts I may have about theocratic rulers (whether they be in Tel Aviv or Tehran), I am personally glad that Iran was able to hold out against the US-Israeli attacks this month.

The ceasefire, however, will only be a pause in the long-running campaign to destabilise, weaken and isolate Iran. Regime change or pariah status are both acceptable outcomes for the US-Israeli dyad.

The good news for my region is that Iran’s resilience pushes back what could be a looming calamity: the US pivot to Asia and a heightened risk of a war on China.

  • READ MORE: Ramzy Baroud: The fallout — winners and losers from the Israeli war on Iran
  • Caitlin Johnstone: The fictional mental illness that only affects enemies of the Western empire
  • Other Israeli war on Gaza reports

There are three major pillars to the Eurasian order that is going through a slow, painful and violent birth.  Iran is the weakest.  If Iran falls, war in our region — intended or unintended – becomes vastly more likely.

Mainstream New Zealanders and Australians suffer from an understandable complacency: war is what happens to other, mainly darker people or Slavs.

“Tomorrow”, people in this part of the world naively think, “will always be like yesterday”.

That could change, particularly for the Australians, in the kind of unfamiliar flash-boom Israelis experienced this month following their attack on Iran. And here’s why.

US chooses war to re-shape Middle East
Back in 2001, as many will recall, retired General Wesley Clark, former Supreme Commander of NATO forces in Europe, was visiting buddies in the Pentagon. He learnt something he wasn’t supposed to: the Bush administration had made plans in the febrile post 9/11 environment to attack seven Muslim countries.

In the firing line were: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon, Gaddafi’s Libya, Somalia, Sudan and the biggest prize of all — the Islamic Republic of Iran.

One would have to say that the project, pursued by successive presidents, both Democrat and Republican, has been a great success — if you discount the fact that a couple of million human beings, most of them civilians, many of them women and children, nearly all of them innocents, were slaughtered, starved to death or otherwise disposed of.

With the exception of Iran, those countries have endured chaos and civil strife for long painful years.  A triumph of American bomb-based statecraft.

Now — with Muammar Gaddafi raped and murdered (“We came, we saw, he died”, Hillary Clinton chuckled on camera the same day), Saddam Hussein hanged, Hezbollah decapitated, Assad in Moscow, the genocide in full swing in Palestine — the US and Israel were finally able to turn their guns — or, rather, bombs — on the great prize: Iran.

Iran’s missiles have checked US-Israel for time being
Things did not go to plan. Former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman pointed out this week that for the first time Israel got a taste of the medicine it likes to dispense to its neighbours.

Iran’s missiles successfully turned the much-vaunted Iron Dome into an Iron Sieve and, perhaps momentarily, has achieved deterrence. If Iran falls, the US will be able to do what Barack Obama and Joe Biden only salivated over — a serious pivot to Asia.

Could great power rivalry turn Asia-Pacific into powderkeg?
For us in Asia-Pacific a major US pivot to Asia will mean soaring defence budgets to support militarisation, aggressive containment of China, provocative naval deployments, more sanctions, muscling smaller states, increased numbers of bases, new missile systems, info wars, threats and the ratcheting up rhetoric — all of which will bring us ever-closer to the powderkeg.

Sounds utterly mad? Sounds devoid of rationality? Lacking commonsense? Welcome to our world — bellum Americanum — as we gormlessly march flame in hand towards the tinderbox. War is not written in the stars, we can change tack and rediscover diplomacy, restraint, and peaceful coexistence. Or is that too much to ask?

Back in the days of George W Bush, radical American thinkers like Robert Kagan, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld created the Project for a New American Century and developed the policy, adopted by succeeding presidents, that promotes “the belief that America should seek to preserve and extend its position of global leadership by maintaining the preeminence of US military forces”.

It reconfirmed the neoconservative American dogma that no power should be allowed to rise in any region to become a regional hegemon; anything and everything necessary should be done to ensure continued American primacy, including the resort to war.

What has changed since those days are two crucial, epoch-making events: the re-emergence of Russia as a great power, albeit the weakest of the three, and the emergence of China as a genuine peer competitor to the USA. Professor  John Mearsheimer’s insights are well worth studying on this topic.

The three pillars of multipolarity
A new world order really is being born. As geopolitical thinkers like Professor Glenn Diesen point out, it will, if it is not killed in the cradle, replace the US unipolar world order that has existed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Many countries are involved in its birthing, including major players like India and Brazil and all the countries that are part of BRICS.  Three countries, however, are central to the project: Iran, Russia and, most importantly, China.  All three are in the crosshairs of the Western empire.

If Iran, Russia and China survive as independent entities, they will partially fulfill Halford MacKinder’s early 20th century heartland theory that whoever dominates Eurasia will rule the world. I don’t think MacKinder, however, foresaw cooperative multipolarity on the Eurasian landmass — which is one of the goals of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) – as an option.

That, increasingly, appears to be the most likely trajectory with multiple powerful states that will not accept domination, be that from China or the US.  That alone should give us cause for hope.

Drunk on power since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has launched war after war and brought us to the current abandonment of economic sanity (the sanctions-and-tariff global pandemic) and diplomatic normalcy (kill any peace negotiators you see) — and an anything-goes foreign policy (including massive crimes against humanity).

We have also reached — thanks in large part to these same policies — what a former US national security advisor warned must be avoided at all costs. Back in the 1990s, Zbigniew Brzezinski said, “The most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran.”

Belligerent and devoid of sound strategy, the Biden and Trump administrations have achieved just that.

Can Asia-Pacific avoid being dragged into an American war on China?
Turning to our region, New Zealand and Australia’s governments cleave to yesterday: a white-dominated world led by the USA.  We have shown ourselves indifferent to massacres, ethnic cleansing and wars of aggression launched by our team.

To avoid war — or a permanent fear of looming war — in our own backyards, we need to encourage sanity and diplomacy; we need to stay close to the US but step away from the military alliances they are forming, such as AUKUS which is aimed squarely at China.

Above all, our defence and foreign affairs elites need to grow new neural pathways and start to think with vision and not place ourselves on the losing side of history. Independent foreign policy settings based around peace, defence not aggression, diplomacy not militarisation, would take us in the right direction.

Personally I look forward to the day the US and its increasingly belligerent vassals are pushed back into the ranks of ordinary humanity. I fear the US far more than I do China.

Despite the reflexive adherence to the US that our leaders are stuck on, we should not, if we value our lives and our cultures, allow ourselves to be part of this mad, doomed project.

The US empire is heading into a blood-drenched sunset; their project will fail and the 500-year empire of the White West will end — starting and finishing with genocide.

Every day I atheistically pray that leaders or a movement will emerge to guide our antipodean countries out of the clutches of a violent and increasingly incoherent USA.

America is not our friend. China is not our enemy. Tomorrow gives birth to a world that we should look forward to and do the little we can to help shape.

Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Bomb Bomb Iran: Idiot Mob Boss Declares Wack Victory https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/bomb-bomb-iran-idiot-mob-boss-declares-wack-victory/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/28/bomb-bomb-iran-idiot-mob-boss-declares-wack-victory/#respond Sat, 28 Jun 2025 02:25:03 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/further/bomb-bomb-iran-idiot-mob-boss-declares-wack-victory

As evidence mounts America's reckless, illegal, peace-through-stupidity attacks on Iran's nuclear sites did not in fact "OBLITERATE" them and could instead prove perilous, the moronic man-child lurches, rages, yammers on with deranged declarations - THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT! CNN is scum! Prosecute Dems! Unpatriotic! - duly parroted by his rabid flunkies: "Wave American Flags!" Still they go lower and crasser: Who had a juvenile White House resurrecting Vince Vance & The Valiants' Bomb Iran on their Clown Show Bingo Card?

After Israel finally got a U.S. president dumb enough to bomb Iran if they did - and to take his Very Serious strategic geo-political leads from what Fox News was saying - the TV-game-show-host-in chief who'd always wanted to be in a war as long as he didn't have to, you know, be in it violated U.S. and international law by launching strikes on Iran's three largest nuclear sites without legally mandated Congressional approval to do so, probably after both Israel and Iran went to him with tears in their eyes and said, "Please sir, you're the only one who can save us." Then, with only early, flimsy reports coming in, he swiftly proclaimed it "ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY" and a "PERFECT FLIGHT" and "total Obliteration for years and years" by "genius people in the military" and "it was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and STOP THE WAR!” Uh huh

After declaring a yuge fake victory, he declared a yuge fake ceasefire - which he evidently thought was like pressing the button on the Resolute Desk for Diet Coke, or like Michael Scott in The Office yelling, "I declare bankruptcy!" - by announcing that both Iran and Israel, now that they'd "gotten it all out of their 'system,'" had agreed to “a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” that would lead to “an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR." He excitedly added, "CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, ITS TIME FOR PEACE!" (No, really, he did.) "THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT! DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.”

The announcement, "friendly plane wave" and all, took not just Israel and Iran but his own advisers by surprise, probably because the so-called leader of the free world is a batshit crazy, power-mad, 12-year-old living in a fever dream reality show who thinks saying something, no matter how delusional, makes it so. It didn't. Iran promptly said, "As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any cessation of military operations." Israel, despite all those impressive CAPS, promptly dropped a load of bombs that the ignored, enraged ringmaster for the 7,846th time called "the likes of which I've never seen before." "Israel has to calm down," he testily told reporters. "These are two countries fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing" - a blaring pot/kettle allusion that most of the sentient world savagely noted and mocked, but he somehow missed.

Still, reality came calling. Emerging assessments - from U.S. intelligence, European leaders, media like The Financial Times, New York Times, CNN - found the attacks did less-than-obliterating damage, likely only setting back the nuclear program a few months and leaving the stockpile "largely intact.” Evidence, including photos of trucks lined up the day before removing uranium enriched material to unknown sites, suggest Iran knew the attacks were coming. Other questions linger: Maybe Fordow wasn't a major site, maybe the bombs didn't go deep enough to inflict serious damage, etc. Meanwhile, Iran charged the U.S. had "crossed a very big red line," suspended cooperation with nuclear watchdog agencies, and, experts say, may have decided to move ahead with a nuclear weapon having learned that diplomacy is "reversible, fragile and vulnerable to changes in leadership in Washington."

With the rest of us now facing what Gestapo Barbie calls "a heightened threat environment" thanks to a clusterfuck regime of clowns who make Dr. Strangelove look like a statesman, the inept juvenile who failed at casinos, steak, water, wine and now war just keeps blustering: "The sites (were) totally destroyed and everyone knows it," "It's called obliteration. No other military on Earth could have done it," "an unbelievable hit by genius pilots," "It’s gone for years, years. Inside, it’s all collapsed. Nobody can get in. It's a room that has ten million tons of rock in it." Also, he gloated, it was just like Hiroshima: "That hit ended the war. And this was essentially the same thing.” Finally, for any lingering doubts or discomfiting facts, blame "Fake News," with ZERO CREDIBILITY!” who are "scum....They're bad people. They're sick," including a CNN reporter who should be "thrown out 'like a dog."

Puffed up, he also urged the trial of fellow felon Netanyahu be "CANCELLED, IMMEDIATELY" to save a "Great Hero," because America "saved" Israel and "now it is going to be the United States of America that saves" Bibi." At NATO, he told a head-swiveling, wildly under-reported story about Iran asking if it was OK they shoot 14 retaliatory missiles at the U.S. military base in Qatar at 1 o'clock. "They were very nice," Trump burbled. "They gave us warning...I said it's fine," despite America's alleged commander-in-chief agreeing to be bombed sure sounds like treason to us. "I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done...There will, hopefully, be no further HATE." He also sagely explained that everyone was taken off the base "except the gunners - they call them the gunners." At his side, Marco Rubio looks like Homer Simpson trying to melt into bushes.

Still, lacking alternatives, the minions have gamely climbed on board. Press Barbie screeched the attack was an "overwhelming success - everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets," but spent more time trashing a CNN reporter who suggested it wasn't. Drunken Pete, even angrier and more unhinged, proclaimed the strikes "the most complex and secretive military operation in history" - except how Iran knew about them and D-Day's Allied invasion of France took a year's planning, 156,000 soldiers, 195,700 navy personnel, and the cooperation of 13 nations - and launched a furious diatribe for an audience of one against mean media for seeking accurate information, aka "hunting for scandals," insulting Dear Leader and "brave pilots," and trying to "manipulate the public mind" rather than "talk about how special America is" and "Wave an American flag." What a belligerent asshole.

Trump loved it, praising "one of the greatest, most professional, and - running out of adjectives besides "beautiful" and "strong" - most 'confirming' News Conferences I have ever seen!" Less entertainingly, he simply ignored diverging assessments of the U.S. intelligence community - a move former CIA Director Leon Panetta called "a very scary prospect" - dismissed the whistleblower who leaked them as a “low-level loser” while "declaring a war on leakers," announced he will (illegally, irrationally) limit classified information he shares with Congress despite no evidence the leaks came from Congress, the next day charged Dems leaked the information and "they should be prosecuted!" - this from the idiots who leaked actual war plans on Signal - and jabbered that the photos of trucks lined up at nuclear sites were those of "concrete workers trying to cover up the tops of the shafts." Say what?

Improbably, even without SCOTUS evil, it keeps getting weirder and worse. After NATO Sec. General Mark Rutte made a cringe joke about Trump as "Daddy," MAGA picked up and ran with the grotesque "Daddy" shtick: The White House posted a "Daddy's home" video, Fox giddily smirked that, thanks to those cool, pointless big-boy bombs being dropped, Republicans are "back to being the Daddy party - he gets things done," hideous orange Daddy merch instantly materialized. The final, puerile, demented abomination (for this week), like something from The Whitest Kids U' Know: He posted a 1995 parody video of the Beach Boys' Barbara Ann by Vince Vance & The Valiants called Bomb Iran: "Went to a mosque/ Gonna throw some rocks." Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States. His country's stunned response: "Bro, how the fuck is this real?" Honestly, we have no idea.

— (@)


This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Abby Zimet.

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Adam Johnson on Media in War Mode https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/27/adam-johnson-on-media-in-war-mode/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/27/adam-johnson-on-media-in-war-mode/#respond Fri, 27 Jun 2025 15:28:39 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9046241 Column: Lawmakers and Pundits Speed Run Iraq WMDs-Level Lies About Iran

Column (6/22/25)

This week on CounterSpin: Prosecutors at the 1946 International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg declared:

War is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are not confined to the belligerent states alone, but affect the whole world. To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.

After the Trump administration dropped bombs on Iran last weekend, without congressional approval, the media debate wasn’t about legality, much less humanity. The Wall Street Journal offered a video series on The Massive Ordnance Penetrator, “The 30,000-Pound US Bomb That Could Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Bunkers.” But it’s not just boys excited by toys; the very important Wall Street Journal is “examining military innovation and tactics emerging around the world, breaking down the tech behind the weaponry and its potential impact.”

Most big media are consumed right now with whether those bunker busters did their bunker busting or maybe the US needs to buy bigger, better bombs to…do what, exactly? Well, now you’re asking too many questions.

Things you should not question? Statements like that of Sen. John Fetterman that Iran is the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror.

US corporate media in war mode are a force to reckon with. We do some reckoning with media analyst Adam Johnson, co-host of the podcast Citations Needed, Substack author at the Column, and co-author, with In These Times contributing editor Sarah Lazare, of some relevant pieces at InTheseTimes.com.


This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by CounterSpin.

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Antoinette Lattouf win against ABC a victory for all truth-tellers https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/27/antoinette-lattouf-win-against-abc-a-victory-for-all-truth-tellers/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/27/antoinette-lattouf-win-against-abc-a-victory-for-all-truth-tellers/#respond Fri, 27 Jun 2025 05:49:36 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116725 By Isaac Nellist of Green Left Magazine

Australian-Lebanese journalist and commentator Antoinette Lattouf’s unfair dismissal case win against the public broadcaster ABC in the Federal Court on Wednesday is a victory for all those who seek to tell the truth.

It is a breath of fresh air, after almost two years of lies and uncritical reporting about Israel’s genocide from the ABC and commercial media companies.

Lattouf was unfairly sacked in December 2023 for posting on her social media a Human Rights Watch report that detailed Israel’s deliberate starvation of Palestinians in Gaza.

  • READ MORE: Other Antoinette Lattouf media freedom reports

Justice Darryl Rangiah found that Lattouf had been sacked for her political opinions, given no opportunity to respond to misconduct allegations and that the ABC breached its Enterprise Agreement and section 772 of the Fair Work Act.

The Federal Court also found that ABC executives — then-chief content officer Chris Oliver-Taylor, editor-in-chief David Anderson and board chair Ita Buttrose — had sacked Lattouf in response to a pro-Israel lobby pressure campaign.

The coordinated email campaign from Zionist groups accused Lattouf of being “antisemitic” for condemning Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing of Gaza.

The judge awarded Lattouf A$70,000 in damages, based on findings that her sacking caused “great distress”, and more than $1 million in legal fees.

‘No Lebanese’ claim
Lattouf had alleged that her race or ethnicity had played a part in her sacking, which the ABC had initially responded to by claiming there was no such thing as a “Lebanese, Arab or Middle Eastern Race”, before backtracking.

The court found that this did not play a part in the decision to sack Lattouf.

The ABC’s own reporting of the ruling said “the ABC has damaged its reputation, and public perceptions around its ideals, integrity and independence”.

Outside the court, Lattouf said: “It is now June 2025 and Palestinian children are still being starved. We see their images every day, emaciated, skeletal, scavenging through the rubble for scraps.

“This unspeakable suffering is not accidental, it is engineered. Deliberately starving and killing children is a war crime.

“Today, the court has found that punishing someone for sharing facts about these war crimes is also illegal. I was punished for my political opinion.”

Palestine solidarity groups and democratic rights supporters have celebrated Lattouf’s victory.

An ‘eternal shame’
Palestine Action Group Sydney said: “It is to the eternal shame of our national broadcaster that it sacked a journalist because she opposed the genocide in Gaza.

“There should be a full inquiry into the systematic pro-Israel bias at the ABC, which for 21 months has acted as a propaganda wing of the Israeli military.”

Racial justice organisation Democracy in Colour said the ruling “exposes the systematic silencing taking place in Australian media institutions in regards to Palestine”.

Democracy in Colour chairperson Jamal Hakim said Lattouf was punished for “speaking truth to power”.

“When the ABC capitulated to pressure from the pro-Israel lobby . . .  they didn’t just betray Antoinette — they betrayed their own editorial standards and the Australian public who deserve to know the truth about Israel’s human rights abuses.”

Noura Mansour, national director for Democracy in Colour, said the ABC had been “consistently shutting down valid criticism of the state of Israel” and suppressing the voices of people of colour and Palestinians. She said the national broadcaster had “worked to manufacture consent for the Israeli-US backed genocide”.

Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance chief executive Erin Madeley said: “Instead of defending its journalists, ABC management chose to appease powerful voices . . . they failed in their duty to push back against outside interference, racism and bullying.”

Win for ‘journalistic integrity’
Australian Greens leader Larissa Waters said the ruling was a win for “journalistic integrity and freedom of speech” and that “no one should be punished for speaking out about Gaza”.

Green Left editor Pip Hinman said the ruling was an “important victory for those who stand on the side of truth and justice”.

“It is more important than ever in an increasingly polarised world that journalists speak up and report the truth without fear of reprisal from the rich and powerful.

“Traditional and new media have the reach to shape public opinion. They have had a clear pro-Israel bias, despite international human rights agencies providing horrific data on Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

“Meanwhile, tens of thousands of people around Australia continue to call for an end to the genocide in Gaza in protests every week. But the ABC and corporate media have largely ignored this movement of people from all walks of life. Disturbingly, the corporate media has gone along with some political leaders who claim this anti-war movement is antisemitic.

“As thousands continue to march every week for an end to the genocide in Gaza, the ABC and corporate media organisations have continued to push the lie that the Palestine solidarity movement, and indeed any criticism of Israel, is antisemitic.

“Green Left also hails those courageous mostly young journalists in Gaza, some 200 of whom have been killed by Israel since October 2023.

“Their livestreaming of Israel’s genocide cut through corporate media and political leaders’ lies and today makes it even harder for them to whitewash Israel’s crimes and Western complicity.

“Green Left congratulates Lattouf on her victory. We are proud to stand with the movement for justice and peace in Palestine, which played a part in her victory against the ABC management’s bias.”

Republished from Green Left Magazine with permission.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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Why most Pacific governments stand with Israel in spite of UN votes https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/26/why-most-pacific-governments-stand-with-israel-in-spite-of-un-votes/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/26/why-most-pacific-governments-stand-with-israel-in-spite-of-un-votes/#respond Thu, 26 Jun 2025 06:24:35 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116692 By Kaya Selby, RNZ Pacific journalist

Amid uncertainty in the Middle East, one thing remains clear — most Pacific governments continue to align themselves with Israel.

Dr Steven Ratuva, distinguished professor of Pacific Studies at Canterbury University, told RNZ that island leaders are likely to try and keep their distance, but only officially speaking.

“They’d probably feel safer that way, rather than publicly taking sides. But I think quite a few of them would probably be siding with Israel.”

  • READ MORE: Iran accuses US over ‘torpedoed diplomacy’ – passes bill to halt UN nuclear watchdog cooperation
  • Israel kills more than 80 in Gaza; 3 killed in attack by Israeli settlers
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

With Iran and Israel waging a 12-day war earlier this month, Dr Ratuva said that was translating into deeper divisions along religious and political lines in Pacific nations.

“People may not want to admit it, but it’s manifesting itself in different ways.”

Pacific support for Israel runs deep

The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on 13 June calling for “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza”, passing with 142 votes, or a 73 percent majority.

Among the 12 nations that voted against the resolution, alongside Israel and the United States, were Fiji, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea and Tuvalu.

Israel and Iran two folded flags together 3D rendering
The flags of Iran – a strong supporter of Palestine, along with a 73 percent support for a ceasefire at the United Nations – and Israel, backed by the United States. Image: 123rf/RNZ Pacific

Pacific support for Israel runs deep
The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on June 13 calling for “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza”, passing with 142 votes, or a 73 percent majority.

Among the 12 nations that voted against the resolution, alongside Israel and the United States, were Fiji, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea and Tuvalu.

Among the regional community, only Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands voted for the resolution, while others abstained or were absent.

Last week, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, in an interview with The Australian, defended Israel’s actions in Iran as an “act of survival”.

“They cannot survive if there is a big threat capability within range of Israel. Whatever [Israel] are doing now can be seen as preemptive, knocking it out before it’s fired on you.”

In February, Fiji also committed to an embassy in Jerusalem — a recognition of Israel’s claimed right to call the city their capital — mirroring Papua New Guinea in 2023.

Dr Ratuva said that deep, longstanding, religious and political ties with the West are what formed the region’s ties with Israel.

“Most of the Pacific Island states have been aligned with the US since the Cold War and beyond, so the Western sphere of influence is seen as, for many of them, the place to be.”

He noted the rise in Christian evangelism, which is aligned with Zionism and the global push for a Jewish homeland, in pockets throughout the Pacific, particularly in Fiji.

“Small religious organisations which have links with or model selves along the lines of the United States evangelical movement, which has been supportive of Trump, tend to militate towards supporting Israel for religious reasons,” Dr Ratuva said.

“And of course, religion and politics, when you mix them together, become very powerful in terms of one’s positioning [in the world].”

Anti-war protest at Parliament on Israel-Iran conflict.
An anti-war protest at Parliament over Israel-Iran conflict. Image: RNZ/Mark Papalii

Politics or religion?
In Fijian society, Dr Ratuva said that the war in Gaza has stoked tensions between the Christian majority and the Muslim minority.

According to the CIA World Factbook, roughly 64.5 percent of Fijians are Christian, compared to a Muslim population of 6.3 percent.

“It’s coming out very clearly, in terms of the way in which those belonging to the fundamentalist political orientation tend to make statements which are against non-Christians” Dr Ratuva said.

“People begin to take sides . . . that in some ways deepens the religious divide, particularly in Fiji which is multiethnic and multireligious, and where the Islamic community is relatively significant.”

A statement from the Melanesian Spearhead Group Secretariat, released on Wednesday, said that the Pacific wished to be an “ocean of peace”.

“Leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to the “Friends to All, Enemy to None” foreign policy to guide the MSG members’ relationship with countries and development partners.”

It bookends a summit that brought together leaders from Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and other Melanesian nations, where the Middle East was discussed, according to local media.

But the Pacific region had been used in a deceptive strategy as the US prepared for the strikes on Iran. On this issue, Melanesian leaders did not respond to requests for comment.

The BBC reported on Monday that B-2 planes flew to Guam from Missouri as a decoy to distract from top-secret flights headed over the Atlantic to Iran.

This sparked outrage from civil society leaders throughout the region, including the head of the Pacific Conference of Churches, Reverend James Bhagwan.

“This use of Pacific airspace and territory for military strikes violates the spirit of the Treaty of Rarotonga, our region’s declaration for being a nuclear, free peace committed zone,” he said.

“Our region has a memory of nuclear testing, occupation and trauma . . .  we don’t forget that when we talk about these issues.”

Reverend Bhagwan told RNZ that there was no popular support in the Pacific for Israel’s most recent actions.

“This is because we have international law . . .  this includes, of course, the US strikes on Iran and perhaps, also, Israel’s actions in Gaza.”

“It is not about religion, it is about people.”

Reverend Bhagwan, whose organisation represents 27 member churches across 17 Pacific nations, refused to say whether he believed there was a link between Christian fundamentalism and Pacific support for Israel.

“We can say that there is a religious contingency within the Pacific that does support Israel . . .  it does not necessarily mean it’s the majority view, but it is one that is seriously considered by those in power.

“It depends on how those [politicians] consider that support they get from those particular aspects of the community.”

Pacific Islanders in the region
For some, the religious commitment runs so deep that they venture to Israel in a kind of pilgrimage.

Dr Ratuva told RNZ that there was a significant population of islanders in the region, many of whom may now be trapped before a ceasefire is finalised.

“There was a time when the Gaza situation began to unfold, when a number of people from Fiji, Tonga and Samoa were there for pilgrimage purposes.”

“At that time there were significant numbers, and Fiji was able to fly over there to evauate them. So this time, I’m not sure whether that might happen.”

Reverend Bhagwan said that the religious ties ran deep.

“They go to Jerusalem, to Bethlehem, to the Mount of Olives, to the Golan Heights, where the transfiguration took place. Fiji also is stationed in the Golan Heights as peacekeepers,” he said.

“So there is a correlation, particularly for Pacific or for Fijian communities, on that relationship as peacekeepers in that region.”


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

]]>
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Why most Pacific governments stand with Israel in spite of UN votes https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/26/why-most-pacific-governments-stand-with-israel-in-spite-of-un-votes-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/26/why-most-pacific-governments-stand-with-israel-in-spite-of-un-votes-2/#respond Thu, 26 Jun 2025 06:24:35 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116692 By Kaya Selby, RNZ Pacific journalist

Amid uncertainty in the Middle East, one thing remains clear — most Pacific governments continue to align themselves with Israel.

Dr Steven Ratuva, distinguished professor of Pacific Studies at Canterbury University, told RNZ that island leaders are likely to try and keep their distance, but only officially speaking.

“They’d probably feel safer that way, rather than publicly taking sides. But I think quite a few of them would probably be siding with Israel.”

  • READ MORE: Iran accuses US over ‘torpedoed diplomacy’ – passes bill to halt UN nuclear watchdog cooperation
  • Israel kills more than 80 in Gaza; 3 killed in attack by Israeli settlers
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

With Iran and Israel waging a 12-day war earlier this month, Dr Ratuva said that was translating into deeper divisions along religious and political lines in Pacific nations.

“People may not want to admit it, but it’s manifesting itself in different ways.”

Pacific support for Israel runs deep

The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on 13 June calling for “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza”, passing with 142 votes, or a 73 percent majority.

Among the 12 nations that voted against the resolution, alongside Israel and the United States, were Fiji, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea and Tuvalu.

Israel and Iran two folded flags together 3D rendering
The flags of Iran – a strong supporter of Palestine, along with a 73 percent support for a ceasefire at the United Nations – and Israel, backed by the United States. Image: 123rf/RNZ Pacific

Pacific support for Israel runs deep
The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on June 13 calling for “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza”, passing with 142 votes, or a 73 percent majority.

Among the 12 nations that voted against the resolution, alongside Israel and the United States, were Fiji, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea and Tuvalu.

Among the regional community, only Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands voted for the resolution, while others abstained or were absent.

Last week, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, in an interview with The Australian, defended Israel’s actions in Iran as an “act of survival”.

“They cannot survive if there is a big threat capability within range of Israel. Whatever [Israel] are doing now can be seen as preemptive, knocking it out before it’s fired on you.”

In February, Fiji also committed to an embassy in Jerusalem — a recognition of Israel’s claimed right to call the city their capital — mirroring Papua New Guinea in 2023.

Dr Ratuva said that deep, longstanding, religious and political ties with the West are what formed the region’s ties with Israel.

“Most of the Pacific Island states have been aligned with the US since the Cold War and beyond, so the Western sphere of influence is seen as, for many of them, the place to be.”

He noted the rise in Christian evangelism, which is aligned with Zionism and the global push for a Jewish homeland, in pockets throughout the Pacific, particularly in Fiji.

“Small religious organisations which have links with or model selves along the lines of the United States evangelical movement, which has been supportive of Trump, tend to militate towards supporting Israel for religious reasons,” Dr Ratuva said.

“And of course, religion and politics, when you mix them together, become very powerful in terms of one’s positioning [in the world].”

Anti-war protest at Parliament on Israel-Iran conflict.
An anti-war protest at Parliament over Israel-Iran conflict. Image: RNZ/Mark Papalii

Politics or religion?
In Fijian society, Dr Ratuva said that the war in Gaza has stoked tensions between the Christian majority and the Muslim minority.

According to the CIA World Factbook, roughly 64.5 percent of Fijians are Christian, compared to a Muslim population of 6.3 percent.

“It’s coming out very clearly, in terms of the way in which those belonging to the fundamentalist political orientation tend to make statements which are against non-Christians” Dr Ratuva said.

“People begin to take sides . . . that in some ways deepens the religious divide, particularly in Fiji which is multiethnic and multireligious, and where the Islamic community is relatively significant.”

A statement from the Melanesian Spearhead Group Secretariat, released on Wednesday, said that the Pacific wished to be an “ocean of peace”.

“Leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to the “Friends to All, Enemy to None” foreign policy to guide the MSG members’ relationship with countries and development partners.”

It bookends a summit that brought together leaders from Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and other Melanesian nations, where the Middle East was discussed, according to local media.

But the Pacific region had been used in a deceptive strategy as the US prepared for the strikes on Iran. On this issue, Melanesian leaders did not respond to requests for comment.

The BBC reported on Monday that B-2 planes flew to Guam from Missouri as a decoy to distract from top-secret flights headed over the Atlantic to Iran.

This sparked outrage from civil society leaders throughout the region, including the head of the Pacific Conference of Churches, Reverend James Bhagwan.

“This use of Pacific airspace and territory for military strikes violates the spirit of the Treaty of Rarotonga, our region’s declaration for being a nuclear, free peace committed zone,” he said.

“Our region has a memory of nuclear testing, occupation and trauma . . .  we don’t forget that when we talk about these issues.”

Reverend Bhagwan told RNZ that there was no popular support in the Pacific for Israel’s most recent actions.

“This is because we have international law . . .  this includes, of course, the US strikes on Iran and perhaps, also, Israel’s actions in Gaza.”

“It is not about religion, it is about people.”

Reverend Bhagwan, whose organisation represents 27 member churches across 17 Pacific nations, refused to say whether he believed there was a link between Christian fundamentalism and Pacific support for Israel.

“We can say that there is a religious contingency within the Pacific that does support Israel . . .  it does not necessarily mean it’s the majority view, but it is one that is seriously considered by those in power.

“It depends on how those [politicians] consider that support they get from those particular aspects of the community.”

Pacific Islanders in the region
For some, the religious commitment runs so deep that they venture to Israel in a kind of pilgrimage.

Dr Ratuva told RNZ that there was a significant population of islanders in the region, many of whom may now be trapped before a ceasefire is finalised.

“There was a time when the Gaza situation began to unfold, when a number of people from Fiji, Tonga and Samoa were there for pilgrimage purposes.”

“At that time there were significant numbers, and Fiji was able to fly over there to evauate them. So this time, I’m not sure whether that might happen.”

Reverend Bhagwan said that the religious ties ran deep.

“They go to Jerusalem, to Bethlehem, to the Mount of Olives, to the Golan Heights, where the transfiguration took place. Fiji also is stationed in the Golan Heights as peacekeepers,” he said.

“So there is a correlation, particularly for Pacific or for Fijian communities, on that relationship as peacekeepers in that region.”


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

]]>
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"Imperial Decline": NATO Nations Boost War Spending at Trump’s Urging as He Defends Iran Bombing https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/imperial-decline-nato-nations-boost-war-spending-at-trumps-urging-as-he-defends-iran-bombing-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/imperial-decline-nato-nations-boost-war-spending-at-trumps-urging-as-he-defends-iran-bombing-2/#respond Wed, 25 Jun 2025 14:43:50 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=5ea1a7dc2a55264d5508901ab841aa98
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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“Imperial Decline”: NATO Nations Boost War Spending at Trump’s Urging as He Defends Iran Bombing https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/imperial-decline-nato-nations-boost-war-spending-at-trumps-urging-as-he-defends-iran-bombing/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/imperial-decline-nato-nations-boost-war-spending-at-trumps-urging-as-he-defends-iran-bombing/#respond Wed, 25 Jun 2025 12:38:34 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=f36310bec25e4a951d6281eda84802aa Seg3 nato3

At the NATO summit in the Hague, almost all European nations reached an agreement to raise military spending to 5% of each county’s GDP. This comes as President Trump said the U.S. would not come to the defense of other NATO nations unless they hit 5% in military spending. “Trump wants to move towards a much, much more instrumental and crudely material, transactional politics,” says Richard Seymour, writer, broadcaster and activist. “I think this is a version of imperial decline that Trump is trying to manage.”


This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Iran accuses US over ‘torpedoed diplomacy’ – passes bill to halt UN nuclear watchdog cooperation https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/iran-accuses-us-over-torpedoed-diplomacy-passes-bill-to-halt-un-nuclear-watchdog-cooperation/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/iran-accuses-us-over-torpedoed-diplomacy-passes-bill-to-halt-un-nuclear-watchdog-cooperation/#respond Wed, 25 Jun 2025 11:50:29 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116681 BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

Kia ora koutou,

I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

At least 79 killed and 391 injured by Israeli forces in Gaza over the last 24 hours, including 33 killed and 267 injured while seeking aid at the US-Israel “humanitarian” centres.

*

Three killed and 7 injured by settler pogrom on the town of Kafr Malik, northeast of Ramallah; setting fire to houses and cars, and protected by soldiers. Israeli forces shot and killed 15-year-old Rayan Houshia west of Jenin as they retreated from resistance fighters, after using a civilian home as military barracks; also invading several towns across the West Bank, firing teargas into al-Fawar refugee camp south of Hebron, sound-bombs near the Jenin Grand Mosque in the north, and arresting several Palestinians.

  • READ MORE: Israel kills more than 80 in Gaza; 3 killed in attack by Israeli settlers
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

Al Quds/Jerusalem’s old city faced low visitor numbers even after restrictions were lifted by the Israeli occupation. Jerusalem Governate reported 623 homes and facilities demolished by Israel since October 2023.

*

Palestinian political prisoner Amar Yasser Al-Amour was released after 2.5 years without charge or trial in Israeli prisons. Thousands remain detained illegally in this way. Another freed prisoner Fares Bassam Hanani mourned his mother who passed away while he was imprisoned. Mohammad al-Ghushi, also freed, was taken to hospital to have his kidney removed due to torture and medical neglect he faced in Israeli prisons.

*

The unexpected ceasefire between Israel, America, and Iran appears to be holding for now. Iranian officials say the US “torpedoed diplomacy” and have passed a bill to halt cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA.

Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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America’s Most Lawless Agency: ICE Is the Prototype for Tyranny https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/americas-most-lawless-agency-ice-is-the-prototype-for-tyranny/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/25/americas-most-lawless-agency-ice-is-the-prototype-for-tyranny/#respond Wed, 25 Jun 2025 07:38:12 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159424 Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government’s purposes are beneficent. Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding. — Justice Louis […]

The post America’s Most Lawless Agency: ICE Is the Prototype for Tyranny first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the government’s purposes are beneficent. Men born to freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.

— Justice Louis D. Brandeis

While the U.S. wages war abroad—bombing Iran, escalating conflict, and staging a spectacle of power for political gain—a different kind of war is being waged here at home.

This war at home is quieter but no less destructive. The casualties are not in distant deserts or foreign cities. They are our freedoms, our communities, and the Constitution itself.

And the agents of this domestic war? Masked thugs. Unmarked vans. Raids. Roundups.

Detentions without due process. Retaliation against those who dare to question or challenge government authority. People made to disappear into bureaucratic black holes. Fear campaigns targeting immigrant communities and political dissenters alike. Surveillance weaponized to monitor and suppress lawful activity.

Packaged under the guise of national security—as all power grabs tend to be—this government-sanctioned thuggery masquerading as law-and-order is the face of the Trump Administration’s so-called war on illegal immigration.

Don’t fall for the propaganda that claims we’re being overrun by criminals or driven into the poorhouse by undocumented immigrants living off welfare.

The real threat to our way of life comes not from outside invaders, but from within: an unelected, unaccountable enforcement agency operating above the law.

President Trump insists that ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is focused on violent criminals, but the facts tell a different story (non-criminal ICE arrests have surged 800% in six months)—and that myth is precisely what enables the erosion of rights for everyone.

By painting enforcement as narrowly targeted, the administration obscures a far broader dragnet that sweeps up legal residents, naturalized citizens, and native-born Americans alike.

What begins with immigrants rarely ends there.

According to the Cato Institute, 65 percent of people taken by ICE had no convictions, and 93 percent had no violent convictions at all.

This isn’t targeted enforcement—it’s indiscriminate purging.

What ICE—an agency that increasingly resembles a modern-day Gestapo—is doing to immigrants today, it can and will do to citizens tomorrow: these are the early warning signs of a system already in motion.

The machinery is in place. The abuses are ongoing. And the constitutional safeguards we rely on are being ignored, dismantled, or bypassed entirely.

When legal residents, naturalized citizens, and native-born Americans are swept up in ICE’s raids, detained without cause, and subjected to treatment that defies every constitutional protection against government overreach, this isn’t about immigration.

It’s not about danger. It’s about power—unchecked and absolute.

This is authoritarianism by design.

Here are just a few examples of how ICE’s reach now extends far beyond a criminal class of undocumented immigrants:

  • In Los Angeles, ICE agents detained U.S. citizens Jason Gavidia and Javier Ramirez during mass raids at flea markets—actions condemned by local officials as racial profiling.
  • In New York City, ICE arrested mayoral candidate Brad Lander at a courthouse after he questioned the legitimacy of an enforcement action.
  • In Arizona, a 19-year-old U.S. citizen with developmental disabilities was held for 10 days without charges.
  • In Virginia, naturalized citizen Jensy Machado was handcuffed at gunpoint until officers reviewed his REAL ID.
  • In Oregon, ICE agents arrested Moises Sotelo Casas—beloved vineyard manager and community member—outside a church.
  • In Tennessee, teen soccer player Emerson Colindres was deported without warning, despite having no criminal background. His community was left reeling.
  • ICE has even conducted raids at churches—sanctuaries meant to offer refuge—violating not just constitutional rights but community trust and religious protections.

This pattern of abuse is not accidental.

It reflects a deliberate strategy of fear and domination by ICE agents acting like an occupying army, intent on intimidating the population into submission while the Trump Administration redraws the boundaries of the Constitution for all within America’s borders, citizen and immigrant alike.

This is how you dismantle a constitutional republic: not in one dramatic moment, but through the steady erosion of rights, accountability, and rule of law—first for the marginalized, then for everyone.

When constitutional guarantees become conditional and oversight is systematically evaded, all Americans—regardless of status—stand vulnerable to a regime that governs by fear rather than freedom.

We’ve seen this playbook before.

It’s the same strategy used by fascist regimes to consolidate power—using fear, force, and propaganda to turn public institutions into instruments of oppression.

ICE raids often occur without warrants. Agents frequently detain individuals not charged with any crime. Homes, schools, hospitals, workplaces, and courthouses have all become targets. Agents in plain clothes swarm unsuspecting individuals, arrest them without explanation, and separate families under the pretense of national security. In many cases, masked agents refuse to identify themselves at all—creating a climate of terror where the public cannot distinguish lawful enforcement from lawless abduction.

This is not justice. It is intimidation. And it has become business as usual.

ICE has even begun deputizing local police departments to carry out these raids.

Through an expanded network of partnerships, ICE has turned routine traffic stops into pipelines for deportation. According to the Washington Post, immigrants stopped on the way to volleyball practice, picking up baby formula, or heading to job sites have been detained and, in some cases, sent to a notorious mega-prison in El Salvador.

This is what politicizing and weaponizing local police looks like.

Even members of Congress attempting to exercise constitutional oversight have been turned away from ICE facilities. As the New York Times reported, ICE now claims the authority to “deny a request or otherwise cancel” congressional visits based on vague “operational concerns”—effectively placing its operations beyond democratic scrutiny.

Beyond the high-profile arrests, the abuse runs deeper.

Julio Noriega, a 54-year-old American citizen, was snatched up off the street and detained in Chicago for 10 hours without explanation. Leonardo Garcia Venegas, a U.S.-born citizen, was detained because ICE dismissed his REAL ID as fake. Cary López Alvarado, a pregnant U.S. citizen, was handcuffed and arrested for challenging ICE agents who had followed her fiancé to work. Children, veterans, and immunocompromised individuals have all suffered under ICE’s dragnet.

These are not outliers. They are the product of a system that operates without meaningful checks.

ICE agents are rarely held accountable. Internal investigations are ineffective. Congress has abdicated oversight. Directives from the Trump administration—including those authored by Stephen Miller—have turbocharged deportations and loosened any remaining restraints.

From boots on the ground to bytes in the cloud, ICE’s unchecked power reflects a broader shift toward authoritarianism, fueled by high-tech surveillance, public indifference and minimal judicial oversight. The agency operates a sprawling digital dragnet: facial recognition, license plate readers, cellphone tracking, and partnerships with tech giants like Amazon and Palantir feed massive databases—often without warrants or oversight.

These same tools—hallmarks of a growing surveillance state—are now being quietly repurposed across other federal agencies, setting the stage for an integrated surveillance-policing regime that threatens the constitutional rights of every American.

This isn’t about safety. It’s about control.

These tools aren’t just targeting undocumented immigrants—they’re laying the digital scaffolding for a future in which everyone is watched, scored, and subject to state suspicion.

Quotas over justice. Algorithms over rights.

ICE’s operations have little to do with individualized threat assessments. What drives these raids is not public safety but bureaucratic performance. Field offices are under pressure to meet arrest quotas, creating a system that incentivizes indiscriminate sweeps over focused investigations.

As Jennie Taer writes for the NY Post:

“The Trump administration’s mandate to arrest 3,000 illegal migrants per day is forcing ICE agents to deprioritize going after dangerous criminals and targets with deportation orders, insiders warn. Instead, federal immigration officers are spending more time rounding up people off the streets… Agents are desperate to meet the White House’s high expectations, leading them to leave some dangerous criminal illegal migrants on the streets, and instead look for anyone they can get their hands on at the local Home Depot or bus stop.”

Predictive algorithms and flawed databases replace constitutional suspicion with digital hunches, turning enforcement into a numbers game and transforming communities into statistical targets.

Constitutional safeguards are being replaced by digital suspicion.

We now live in a nation where lawful dissent—especially from immigrants or those perceived as outsiders—can place someone under state suspicion. The line between investigation and persecution has been erased.

Fear needs fuel.

And ICE finds it in propaganda: just as the Gestapo used propaganda to justify its cruelty, ICE relies on the language of fear and division. When the government labels people “invaders,” “animals,” or “thugs,” it strips them of humanity—and strips us of our conscience.

This rhetoric serves to distract and divide. It normalizes abuse. And it ensures that, once targeted, no one is safe.

The construction of a new ICE mega-prison in Florida—nicknamed “Alligator Alcatraz” for its proposed moat and remote location—serves as a grotesque symbol of the Trump Administration’s mass deportation agenda: out of sight, beyond accountability, and surrounded by literal and bureaucratic barriers to due process.

And Trump’s shifting stance on industries that rely on migrant labor—one moment threatening crackdowns, the next signaling exemptions for hotels, farms, and construction—reveals what this campaign is really about: not security, but political theater.

It’s not about danger; it’s about dominance.

But the crisis isn’t just rhetorical. It’s systemic. Agents are trained to obey, not to question. Immunity shields misconduct. Whistleblowers are punished. Watchdogs are ignored. Courts too often defer to executive power.

This is not law enforcement—it is authoritarian enforcement.

And it’s not limited to immigrants. It’s creeping into every corner of American life.

When a government can detain its own citizens without due process, punish political dissent, and target individuals for what they believe or how they look, it is no longer governed by law. It is governed by fear.

The Constitution was designed to prevent this. But rights are meaningless when no one is held accountable for violating them.

That is why the solution must go beyond the ballot box.

We must dismantle the machinery of oppression that enables ICE to act as judge, jury, and jailer.

Congress must ban warrantless raids, end predictive profiling, and prohibit mass surveillance. It must enforce real oversight and revoke the legal shields that insulate abusive agents from consequences.

We must reassert the rule of law, not just through legislation, but through a cultural recommitment to constitutional values. That includes transparency, demilitarization, and equal protection for all—citizens and non-citizens alike.

This is not just a fight over immigration policy. It’s a battle for the soul of our nation.

ICE is not the exception. It is the prototype.

As I make clear in my books Battlefield America: The War on the American People and A Government of Wolves: The Emerging American Police State, the same blueprint is being applied across the federal landscape: to protest monitoring, dissent suppression, and data-mined predictive policing.

If we fail to dismantle the ICE model, we normalize it—and risk reproducing it everywhere else.

ICE has become the beta test—perfecting the merger of technology, policing, and executive power that could soon define American governance as a whole.

Make no mistake: when fear becomes law, freedom is the casualty.

If we don’t act soon, we may find that the Constitution is the next to be detained.

James Madison warned that “the accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands… may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.”

When ICE acts as enforcer, jailer, and judge for the president, those fears are no longer theoretical—they are the daily reality for countless people within U.S. borders.

The post America’s Most Lawless Agency: ICE Is the Prototype for Tyranny first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by John W. Whitehead and Nisha Whitehead.

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Melanesian Spearhead Group leaders discuss Middle East conflict before ceasefire https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/melanesian-spearhead-group-leaders-discuss-middle-east-conflict-before-ceasefire/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/melanesian-spearhead-group-leaders-discuss-middle-east-conflict-before-ceasefire/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 23:38:49 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116636 RNZ Pacific

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape says the Middle East conflict was one of the discussions of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) in Suva this week — and Pacific leaders “took note of what is happening”.

The Post-Courier reports Marape saying the “12 Day War” between Israel and Iran was based on high technology and using missiles sent from great distances.

“In the context of MSG, the leaders want peace always. And the Pacific remains friends to all, enemies to none,” he said.

  • READ MORE: Fiji advocacy group slams Indonesian role in MSG as a ‘disgrace’
  • New era for MSG as Fiji assumes leadership role
  • Pro-independence advocates urge MSG to elevate West Papua membership
  • Other West Papua reports

He said an effect on PNG would be the inflation in prices of oil and gas.

Yesterday morning, US President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire had been agreed  between Israel and Iran, and so far it has been holding in spite of tensions.

Australia had stepped in to help Papua New Guinea diplomats and citizens caught in the Middle East.

Foreign Affairs Minister Justin Tkatchenko confirmed last week that a group was to be evacuated through Jordan.

There had been six diplomats in lockdown at the PNG embassy in Jerusalem awaiting extraction.

Meanwhile, a repatriation flight for Australians stuck in Israel had been cancelled.

ABC News reported that it was the second day repatriation plans were scrapped at the last minute because of rocket fire. A bus meant to take people across the border into Jordan was cancelled the previous day.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Does Israel really want peace with Iran? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/does-israel-really-want-peace-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/does-israel-really-want-peace-with-iran/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 18:45:35 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9a90f498ba2d62f01830ac73241f91b6
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Tulsi Gabbard: Another Lesser Evilist Offering https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/tulsi-gabbard-another-lesser-evilist-offering/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/tulsi-gabbard-another-lesser-evilist-offering/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 18:04:12 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159337 On 20 June 2025, Galloway spoke about his dream team for the next presidential race: "Tulsi Gabbard, Tucker Carlson, president and vice president of the United States of America."

He advised Gabbard to "resign if Trump joins the war and should make plain that she intends to run for president." She hasn't.

Given the public rebukes of her by Donald Trump, speculation had emerged of her doing just that: resigning. However, Gabbard has instead attempted to win her way back into Trump's good book.

The post Tulsi Gabbard: Another Lesser Evilist Offering first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
On 20 June 2025, Galloway spoke about his dream team for the next presidential race: “Tulsi Gabbard, Tucker Carlson, president and vice president of the United States of America.”

He advised Gabbard to “resign if Trump joins the war and should make plain that she intends to run for president.” She hasn’t.

Given the public rebukes of her by Donald Trump, speculation had emerged of her doing just that: resigning. However, Gabbard has instead attempted to win her way back into Trump’s good book.

Two years ago, George Galloway, who served five-terms as a UK MP, and now hosts the popular Mother of all Talk Shows came across as a Gabbard fanboy,

I have come to the view that the best possible president for the United States in 2024 is Tulsi Gabbard. I think she’s got the looks. I think she’s got style. I think she’s got the eloquence. And most of her politics, but by no means all, are as good as you’re going to get from anyone with a chance of winning the presidency of the United states. So there’s quite a few hedges and qualifications in there, but I have come to the view that Tulsi Gabbard for president is our best bet.

Horrors that looks, sartorial, and eloquence should be enounced as foremost considerations — or even being considerations at all — for a political leader. A consideration not mentioned by Galloway was intelligence.

When one scrutinizes Gabbard on her record, support for her would again be an appeal to lesser evilism. She may, however, be one of the best among so many regressivist politicians.

Gabbard, in particular, comes to the fore on militarism and foreign affairs. What is part of her record here?

Gabbard is regressivist on Palestine and Israel

Gabbard seems not to realize that Palestine is state, unrecognized as such by the United States, that is under siege, occupation, theft of resources, and an ongoing genocide (sped up greatly since 7 October 2023). Moreover, Gabbard does not call what Israel has been carrying out since 7 October as a genocide.

She focuses her ire on Hamas’s “evil” actions. In a 10 October 2023 interview on Fox News Tonight (hosted by Brian Kilmeade filling in for Tucker Carlson), Gabbard stated: “Israel has not only the right but the responsibility to defend itself against these terrorists who slaughtered innocent civilians.”

On 10 October 2023, Gabbard posted on X: “Hamas is responsible for this war. They could end it now by surrendering, releasing hostages, and laying down their arms.” In other words, Gabbard denies Palestinians the inalienable right to resist occupation, an occupation that is rooted in killing, racism, humiliation, and brutality.

Gabbard also rejected calls for a ceasefire, implying that she backs the continued Israeli military operations in Gaza. (The Tulsi Gabbard Show, Ep. 45)

While Gabbard has never referred to Israel’s genocidal actions, she does make this accusation of Hamas. In an X post on 10 October 2023, she stated: “Hamas is a genocidal terrorist group. They must be defeated.”

Gabbard took aim at those Democrats who are

accusing Israel of committing a genocide. It it is the height of hypocrisy because they’re apologists and supporters of these Islamist Hamas terrorists who are calling for a genocide the extermination of all Jews not just in Israel but around the world and we’re seeing this being carried out by these violent mobs and threats and other things that are happening against Jewish people literally uh around the world.

By Gabbard’s logic, she could be criticized as an apologist and supporter of these Israeli Zionist terrorists.

Gabbard also opines, “This is not a ‘resistance’ movement. Hamas is a jihadist terrorist group funded by Iran, whose goal is the destruction of Israel.” (The Tulsi Gabbard Show, Ep. 45)

She accuses Hamas of using human shields, but she does not criticize Israel using Palestinian children as human shields. Even the Zionist friendly BBC reports this.(“Hamas uses Palestinian civilians as human shields, knowing Israel will retaliate. They provoke war, then exploit the suffering for propaganda.” Cited by Deepseek as “Tulsi Gabbard on Israel-Palestine Conflict,” CNN, 7 May 2019.)

Gabbard criticizes the ICERD Genocide Case (2024): “South Africa’s case at the ICJ is a propaganda stunt. Hamas is the real war criminal here.” (Twitter/X)

Gabbard is regressivist on Iran

Gabbard has called for regime change in Iran: “The Iranian people deserve freedom from this oppressive, theocratic dictatorship.” (Fox News, 2023)

She was also against Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal: “The JCPOA gave Iran billions while allowing them to keep terror networks intact.” (CNN, 2019)

Of course, all the talk about Iran and its purported nuclear weapons program has now had a wrench thrown into the works as the US launched an illegal and unannounced war on Iran. Gabbard fell into line behind Trump on this illegal attack (contrary to the UN Charter and without Congressional approval). The repercussions from that US attack will become clearer as time passes.

Galloway’s Lesser Evilism

Back to Galloway. Is this really, as Galloway claims about a future Tulsi Gabbard presidential candidacy: “As good as it is going to get”? Have pity on the world, if that is true.

Can Gabbard represent the conscience of a nation? Surely there are better progressivist choices.

Right away a courageous woman of integrity such as Medea Benjamin comes to mind.

  • Read Part 1.
The post Tulsi Gabbard: Another Lesser Evilist Offering first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Kim Petersen.

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"Blatantly Unconstitutional": Rep. Ro Khanna Decries U.S. Strikes on Iran Without Congressional OK https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/blatantly-unconstitutional-rep-ro-khanna-decries-u-s-strikes-on-iran-without-congressional-ok/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/blatantly-unconstitutional-rep-ro-khanna-decries-u-s-strikes-on-iran-without-congressional-ok/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:57:01 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=ddc068bc92b81e1df9ba5379dcaf7c6c
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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F-Bombs and Real Bombs: Trita Parsi on Shaky Iran Ceasefire & Trump’s Anger at Netanyahu https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/f-bombs-and-real-bombs-trita-parsi-on-shaky-iran-ceasefire-trumps-anger-at-netanyahu-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/f-bombs-and-real-bombs-trita-parsi-on-shaky-iran-ceasefire-trumps-anger-at-netanyahu-2/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:51:16 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=d3866b9d8bb93209a3d071b0eb73fe32
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Bombs Away https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/bombs-away/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/bombs-away/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:50:35 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159407 “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier,” said President Trump as he addressed the American people shortly after announcing he was bombing Iran. I was too young to watch my political leaders spiral themselves into the war […]

The post Bombs Away first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
“Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier,” said President Trump as he addressed the American people shortly after announcing he was bombing Iran. I was too young to watch my political leaders spiral themselves into the war in Iraq – I was only old enough to be able to comprehend the final toll: one million Iraqis died because my country couldn’t help itself from another power grab in the Middle East. I can’t help but feel that the same thing is happening all over again.

Myself, and countless other Americans, are ashamed at how many people have been killed in our name or with our tax dollars. The comfy politicians in Washington condescend to us — that our concern for human life actually goes against our own interests — as if Palestinians and Iranians do more to hurt Americans than the politicians and billionaires who gutted out industry, automated our jobs, privatized education, and cut social services. In our daily life, the people who actually hate us only become more obvious.

Last week before it was absolutely clear that the US would formally enter the war, public opinion polls came out that a vast majority of Americans did not want the US to go to war. This was not the case in the lead up to the war in Iraq. Times and opinions have changed amongst the masses, but that didn’t seem to matter to anyone in the White House yesterday.

In the aftermath of 9/11, our leaders were awfully good at convincing Americans that they needed revenge for what happened. Even if it wasn’t logical, even if it didn’t make sense — we invaded two countries that had nothing to do with 9/11. Revenge is often carried out in a blind rage, and I would say that characterized US actions in Iraq, given the barbaric nature of how the war was carried out, how many civilians died, and with a fallout that’s done very little for “strategic security interests”. I would say that it was a “blind rage” if its violence wasn’t so calculated — specifically to enrich a handful of Americans. It did succeed in that endeavor, and American families had their sons and daughters sent home in body bags so Haliburton’s stock could skyrocket. The Iraqi people, with unsolicited promises to be “liberated” from Saddam, got nothing but grief and trauma that continues twenty years later. It was perhaps hard to justify all of that to the public; American public opinion has changed a lot, and so has US-led warfare as a result of that shift.

So, Donald Trump has made it obvious (in case it wasn’t before) that the consent of the governed doesn’t hold any weight in the United States of America. However, it’s still an interesting thing to examine in our current context. Despite a barrage of lies about nuclear weapons (like Saddam’s WMDs) and images of scary, oppressive mullahs (like the ‘dictator Saddam’) Americans still opposed a US war on Iran. If Americans were to leverage this public opinion against war in a meaningful way, by taking some sort of step past having a stance in their heads, what would it challenge? What would it look like? Will Americans oppose – at a large enough scale, US warfare that looks slightly different than it did in 2003?

US warmaking is more subtle to the American public, but not less deadly to the countries we impose it on. Trump insisted in his address to the nation that he has no plans to keep attacking Iran as long as they “negotiate”. This is after Israel killed Iranian negotiators with US approval, and after Iran had made clear their terms of negotiating that the US just couldn’t accept. There’s no definition about what Iranian compliance would look like, setting the stage for further bombing campaigns whenever Trump decides. There might not be troops on the ground or a US military occupation, but a war they refuse to call one is still functionally a war. It still kills people. It still destabilizes countries.

The US fights wars with money, private contractors, and “offensive support”. Only pouring into the streets to oppose sending troops to fight on behalf of Israel against Iran might not be the demand that becomes most pressing in the coming days and weeks. For example, will Americans oppose a war with Iran if it’s primarily conducted from the air?

There’s also a large sector of the American public that still morally supports Israel’s military in one way or another, whether it be overtly or with silence on the subject. Some of them might also make up the large portion of society that opposes the US going to war. For the last two years, as Israel has carried out its genocide campaign against Palestinians in Gaza, the US has been building up Israel’s military, sending off billions of our tax dollars to make sure Israel was perfectly poised for the moment it decided to kill Iranians. Whether the public who opposes war with Iran likes it or not, their support for Israel as a military ally will directly contradict their opinion opposing war with Iran. You can’t have your cake and eat it too, if we want to put it simply.

On the other side, Israel’s war crimes in Gaza also might have something to do with why opposition to the war on Iran is so prevalent. Because the back-up justification for attacking Iran, made by the ruling class, in case the nuke lies didn’t work, was portraying Iran’s leaders as scary, irrational, and evil boogeymen. The ruling class, decrying an evil Hitler-esque foreign leader in Iran, is now the boy crying wolf. We were told the same things about the leaders in Libya and Iraq to justify our country bombing of theirs. The result was Libyan, Iraqi, and to a lesser extent, American blood pooling in the streets. On top of that collective memory, we’ve seen our government entrench itself with Netanyahu — a commander of a military that’s killed countless Palestinians and a handful of Americans without any condemnation from our government. If there are murderous and unjust dictators in the Middle East, one of them is named Benjamin Netanyahu, and we are told he’s our greatest ally, and acting on behalf of Israel is acting in the best interest of Americans. Now, even if the US wanted the war on Iran all along, it appears to the world that Israel pulled us into the war – people do not like that, rightfully so.

If Americans who are against the war can reject these new forms of hybrid warfare as much as they reject the traditional forms of warfare, and the sectors of the public still sympathetic to Israel see the blatant contradictions in front of their eyes — then perhaps this public opinion could mean something real. Furthermore, it’s been made clear that the American ruling class will not change course solely because the people they “serve” oppose what they are doing. They’ve also demonstrated that they are willing to jail and deport people who disagree with them and their foreign policy escapades. The genocide in Gaza has made it clear that Americans standing against the actions of their government do so at great personal risk. Do Americans disagree with US involvement in the war enough? Do they disagree to the point where they are willing to experience threats, jail time, repression, physical harm, or other forms of violence? In the case of a war that could turn nuclear with an untethered Israel and Trump Administration at the helm, I sincerely hope so. 

The post Bombs Away first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Danaka Katovich.

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“Blatantly Unconstitutional”: Rep. Ro Khanna Decries U.S. Strikes on Iran Without Congressional Approval https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/blatantly-unconstitutional-rep-ro-khanna-decries-u-s-strikes-on-iran-without-congressional-approval/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/blatantly-unconstitutional-rep-ro-khanna-decries-u-s-strikes-on-iran-without-congressional-approval/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 12:46:32 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1e753c6c553dba78c65007ad1e9585d4 Seg ro trump hegseth

“You can’t, as the president, engage in strikes on a foreign country when there’s no imminent threat, without coming to Congress for authorization,” says Ro Khanna, Democratic congressmember and member of the House Armed Services Committee, criticizing President Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites as “blatantly unconstitutional” and a clear instance of executive overreach. Khanna and Republican congressmember Thomas Massie recently introduced a bipartisan Iran War Powers resolution in a bid to prevent further U.S. involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. Khanna shares how anti-war voices in U.S. politics are too often silenced by powerful and wealthy interest groups and urges the Democratic Party to harness widespread anti-war sentiment in opposition to Trump’s increasingly authoritarian foreign policy.


This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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F-Bombs and Real Bombs: Trita Parsi on Shaky Iran Ceasefire & Trump’s Anger at Netanyahu https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/f-bombs-and-real-bombs-trita-parsi-on-shaky-iran-ceasefire-trumps-anger-at-netanyahu/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/f-bombs-and-real-bombs-trita-parsi-on-shaky-iran-ceasefire-trumps-anger-at-netanyahu/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 12:15:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=c31a02b75e6c28cb6feba00bdab4c500 Seg trita iran

U.S. President Donald Trump is touting a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran, despite what he said were violations of the deal by both sides shortly after he announced it. Trump said he was especially angry with Israel and urged the country to stand down as he faces mounting criticism over the prospect of another U.S. war in the Middle East. “Part of the reason why Trump also was quite eager to get to a ceasefire, why he’s so frustrated with what the Israelis are doing right now, is precisely because he’s very much aware of the strain that all of this has caused within his own support base,” says political analyst Trita Parsi. Parsi says the breakdown of the global Non-Proliferation Treaty on nuclear weapons could lead to dangerous consequences, as countries like Iran see incentive to build their own nuclear deterrence.


This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Iran Hits Israel Minutes Before Ceasefire https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/iran-hits-israel-minutes-before-ceasefire/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/iran-hits-israel-minutes-before-ceasefire/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 09:34:10 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=a07ee020dac921e56c5eb0332dfc52e8
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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Ramzy Baroud: The fallout – winners and losers from the Israeli war on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/ramzy-baroud-the-fallout-winners-and-losers-from-the-israeli-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/24/ramzy-baroud-the-fallout-winners-and-losers-from-the-israeli-war-on-iran/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 08:44:59 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116602 COMMENTARY: By Ramzy Baroud, editor of The Palestinian Chronicle

The conflict between Israel and Iran over the past 12 days has redefined the regional chessboard. Here is a look at their key takeaways:

Israel:
Pulled in the US: Israel successfully drew the United States into a direct military confrontation with Iran, setting a significant precedent for future direct (not just indirect) intervention.

Boosted political capital: This move generated substantial political leverage, allowing Israel to frame US intervention as a major strategic success.

  • READ MORE: Israel orders attack on Iran after claiming Tehran violated ceasefire
  • Israel’s attack on Iran — the violent new world being born is going to horrify you — Jonathan Cook
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

Iran:
Forged a new deterrence: Iran has firmly established a new equation of deterrence, emerging as a powerful regional force capable of directly challenging Israel, the US, and their Western allies.

Demonstrated independence: Crucially, Iran achieved this without relying on its traditional regional allies, showcasing its self-reliance and strategic depth.

Defeated regime change efforts: This confrontation effectively thwarted any perceived Israeli strategy aimed at regime change, solidifying the current Iranian government’s position.

Achieved national unity: In the face of external pressure, Iran saw a notable surge in domestic unity, bridging the gap between reformers and conservatives in a new social and political contract.

Asserted direct regional role: Iran has definitively cemented its status as a direct and undeniable player in the ongoing regional struggle against Israeli hegemony.

Sent a global message: It delivered a strong message to non-Western global powers like China and Russia, proving itself a reliable regional force capable of challenging and reshaping the existing balance of power.

Exposed regional dynamics: The events sharply exposed Arab and Muslim countries that openly or tacitly support the US-Israeli regional project of dominance, highlighting underlying regional alignments.

Dr Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story (Pluto Press, London). He has a PhD in Palestine Studies from the University of Exeter (2015) and was a Non-Resident Scholar at Orfalea Center for Global and International Studies, University of California Santa Barbara. This commentary is republished from his Facebook page.

In the final strike before the ceasefire, Iranian missiles caused extensive destruction, killing and injuring several Israelis in the city of Beersheba. pic.twitter.com/b25fHPw2yD

— The Palestine Chronicle (@PalestineChron) June 24, 2025


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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NYT Gave Green Light to Trump’s Iran Attack by Treating It as a Question of When https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/nyt-gave-green-light-to-trumps-iran-attack-by-treating-it-as-a-question-of-when/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/nyt-gave-green-light-to-trumps-iran-attack-by-treating-it-as-a-question-of-when/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 21:16:24 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9046157  

NYT: America Must Not Rush Into a War Against Iran

The New York Times (6/18/25) made clear that it wouldn’t mind an unprovoked attack on Iran—so long as it wasn’t done hastily.

In the wake of the US-supported Israeli attack on Iran, and days before the direct US bombing that followed, the New York Times editorial board (6/18/25) argued that “America Must Not Rush Into a War Against Iran.”

This language was as shifty as it was deliberate. Rather than oppose a policy of unprovoked aggression and mass murder, the Times editorialists suggested such a campaign was happening too hastily, and it should be preceded by more debate.

The opinion writers at the most important paper in the world were fully in favor of attacking Iran; they only worried that Trump would go about it the wrong way. In fact, the Times’ justification for war was identical to that of the Trump administration’s explanation after the fact.  It laid it out in the first paragraph:

A nuclear-armed Iran would make the world less safe. It would destabilize the already volatile Middle East. It could imperil Israel’s existence. It would encourage other nations to acquire their own nuclear weapons, with far-reaching geopolitical consequences.

The New York Times‘ echo of the standard Israeli and US propaganda line offers an opportunity to critically examine this most recent justification for aggressive war.

‘Iran is not building a nuclear weapon’

Responsible Statecraft: Tulsi said Iran not building nukes. One senator after another ignored her.

The Trump administration’s top intelligence official saying that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” (Responsible Statecraft, 6/8/25) did not prevent the New York Times from asserting that Iran “has made substantial progress toward acquiring a nuclear weapon.”

The premise here was that Iran is working to build a nuclear weapon, something that forms the backbone of the Israeli propaganda campaign justifying their actions. The only problem is that there is no evidence whatsoever for this position. Not only is there no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon, there is no reason to think that if they did, they would be anything other than defensive weapons.

Nowhere in the Times analysis was there any reference to the fact that neither US intelligence agencies nor international monitoring organizations have found evidence of any Iranian intention to build a nuclear weapon. As recently as March 25, 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the Trump administration’s director of national intelligence, told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that the US intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”

While the International Atomic Energy Agency has been critical of steps Iran has taken to make its nuclear power program less transparent in the context of continual threats from Israel and the US to bomb that program, IAEA director Rafael Grossi emphasized in an interview with CNN (6/17/25; cited in Al Jazeera, 6/18/25), after those threats had become reality, “We did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon.”

Unilaterally scrapped

NYT: Trump Abandons Iran Nuclear Deal He Long Scorned

“The Trump administration might well be able to achieve a stricter deal” than the one Obama negotiated in 2015, the Times advised—without mentioning that Trump’s unilateral repudiated the Obama deal (New York Times, 5/8/18).

While the Times editorial did make brief mention of the US’s Obama-era anti-nuclear treaty with Iran, it offered no analysis as to why the Trump administration unilaterally scrapped the deal, despite no violation on Iran’s part. Nor did the paper mention the Biden administration refusal to negotiate a return to the deal. There was no mention of the fact that as Israel launched its first strike against Iran, the Iranians had made it clear that they wished to make a deal with the Trump administration on its nuclear energy program, and were actively negotiating toward that end.

But the fact is that every country in the Middle East, including Iran, has been in favor of a nuclear weapons–free Middle East. Every country, that is, with the exception of Israel, whose illegal, undeclared and often unacknowledged stockpile of nuclear weapons are currently in the hands of a genocidal and messianic regime, hell-bent on attacking its neighbors and thwarting any opportunities for peace.

Despite all of the fearmongering about Iran’s alleged aggressive intent and destabilizing potential, the Times ignored ample analysis and evidence to the contrary. As eminent political scientist John Mearsheimer (PBS, 7/9/12) has argued, a nuclear armed Iran could make the region more stable, because of the deterrent power of nuclear weapons.

A 2009 US military–funded study from the RAND corporation (4/14/09) examined Iranian ”press statements, writings in military journals, and other glimpses into Iranian thinking,” and found that it was extremely unlikely that Iran would use nuclear weapons offensively against Israel. Contrary to the Times’ image of Iran as fanatical theocrats bent on Israel’s destruction at all costs, military planners in Iran are well aware of the danger of being wiped off the map by retaliatory US strikes, and plan accordingly. If the Islamic Republic was to get nuclear weapons, predicts RAND, they would be used to deter exactly the kind of unprovoked attack that the US and Israel have launched over the past several days. They would be defensive, not offensive, weapons.

‘A malevolent force in the world’ 

Common Dreams: How the US and Israel Used Rafael Grossi to Hijack the IAEA and Start a War on Iran

The IAEA statement cited by the New York Times was the product of intense lobbying by the US (Common Dreams, 6/23/25).

The editorial board explicitly avoided the question of what Congress should do on the question of war with Iran: “The separate question of whether the United States should join the conflict is not one that we are addressing here.” But they had no problem presenting their pros list:

We know the arguments in favor of doing so—namely, that Iran’s government is a malevolent force in the world, and that it has made substantial progress toward acquiring a nuclear weapon. Last week the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is part of the United Nations, declared that Iran was violating its nonproliferation obligations and apparently hiding evidence of its efforts.

And their cons list:

Given how much weaker Iran is today than it was then, thanks partly to Israel’s humbling of Iranian proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, the Trump administration might well be able to achieve a stricter [Iran nuclear deal] today.

While the Times correctly pointed out that the IAEA found Iran to be in “noncompliance” with the nonproliferation treaty (NPT), the Times failed to point out that this came after an intense lobbying effort from Western officials just hours before Israeli strikes. They also ignore Iran’s detailed criticism of the IAEA finding, including its allegations that the findings were based in part on forged documents—a credible allegation, given Israel’s history of fabricating and forging evidence to justify aggression. Iran also noted that some of the “nonproliferation obligations” it had allegedly violated were not codified in the NPT, but instead were part of the agreement that the US unilaterally withdrew from. Nor did the Times make reference to the IAEA chief’s explicit insistence that the agency did not have proof Iran was trying to build a nuclear weapon.

‘Let this vital debate begin’ 

BBC: Trump speculates about regime change in Iran after US strikes

Shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the bombing of Iran “was not and has not been about regime change” (BBC, 6/23/25), Trump posted, “Why wouldn’t there be a regime change???”

Instead of explaining this, the Times went straight to name-calling. One does not have to scrape the annals of the New York Times to predict that the phrase “malevolent force” has never been used to describe any of Washington’s ultra-violent allies, even the ones who have actually built and maintained an illegal stockpile of nuclear weapons. Certainly not Israel, the nation that has put an entire population under military apartheid for decades, and has slaughtered tens of thousands as part of what international rights organizations have labeled a genocide.

The US and Israel have made Iran the target of propaganda campaigns, terrorism, cyber attacks, assassinations, regime change operations and unprovoked attacks on its personnel and home soil. If the Times had included these facts, it would have inhibited the ultimate goal of the editorial: to promote the idea that war with Iran could potentially be desirable—and certainly justifiable. The Times seemed keen to act as a loyal opposition to Trump, while distancing themselves from the manner in which he might enact such a war.

Including the facts of America’s aggressive and provocative behavior against Iran would force them to conclude that the primary force destabilizing the region is not Iran, but the US and Israel. It isn’t Iran whose top papers are weighing the benefits of whether or not to launch a war of aggression against yet another nation. That honor goes to the New York Times, which said of this national discussion of mass murder policy: “Let this vital debate begin.”

After the strikes on Iran, the Trump administration and Israel have not announced full scale regime change war just yet, though there is every indication that such plans are in the works. As with Iraq in 2003, we have seen how easily false claims of weapons of mass destruction, and propaganda about a need to act, can morph into a years-long quagmire of senseless killing in the name of rebuilding a nation according to Washington’s designs. If such a war should be launched against Iran, the Times will have been one of its key supporters.


Research assistance: Emma Llano

ACTION ALERT: You can send a message to the New York Times at letters@nytimes.com or via Bluesky: @NYTimes.com. Please remember that respectful communication is the most effective. Feel free to leave a copy of your message in the comments thread here.

 


This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Bryce Greene.

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From Gaza to Iran—Israel is fighting to maintain Western empire https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/from-gaza-to-iran-israel-is-fighting-to-maintain-western-empire/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/from-gaza-to-iran-israel-is-fighting-to-maintain-western-empire/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 20:30:42 +0000 https://therealnews.com/?p=334991 Smoke rises from a location allegedly IRGC's Sarallah Headquarters in north of Tehran, Iran after being targeted by Israel on June 23, 2025. Israel claims targeting IRGC site, while the conflict in the region has escalated as the US targeted Iran's three nuclear sites a day earlier.The war across the Middle East is part of a desperate effort to preserve Western superiority. All the fighting — whether in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, or Iran — is due to Zionism, and its role of enforcing the crushing force of the West.]]> Smoke rises from a location allegedly IRGC's Sarallah Headquarters in north of Tehran, Iran after being targeted by Israel on June 23, 2025. Israel claims targeting IRGC site, while the conflict in the region has escalated as the US targeted Iran's three nuclear sites a day earlier.

This story originally appeared in Mondoweiss on June 21, 2025. It is shared here with permission.

Violence has a paralyzing power. What is the power of the word in the face of the planes that sow destruction and death, and the flying ballistic missiles? When I see people around me paralyzed or going crazy with fear in the face of the destruction that the Iranian missiles have sown, I cannot help but think of the resilience of the residents of Gaza, who go through seven circles of hell every day with no relief in sight.

But the missiles and planes are the continuation of politics by other means. Many words have been spoken, and many agreements have been concluded to create and set in motion the instruments of destruction and death. As far removed from reality as it may seem now, it is important to speak out today in order to understand the roots of the war and how we can resist and stop the looming disasters.

In Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran—it’s the same war

During the first year of the “war,” the Israeli public overwhelmingly supported the genocide in Gaza, with no significant reservations. But in recent months, we have seen doubts and disillusionment on the part of large sections. Now, when we stand in protest vigils demanding an end to the killing, the feeling is that most of the public on the streets of Haifa supports us. More and more Israelis, including established media outlets, former senior politicians, and generals, have begun to speak out about the war crimes that Israel is committing. An Israeli and international consensus has begun to form that the Israeli government deliberately avoids striving to end the war, and is working to expand and perpetuate it, for reasons of narrow political and personal interests or out of messianic extremism.

But suddenly, when Israel initiated the expansion of the war into an all-out attack on Iran, which will inevitably bring further death and destruction in both Iran and Israel, we began to see again the power of violence to take over the human psyche and paralyze thought. Suddenly, the automatic Israeli consensus stiffened again, with the media and the public celebrating the spilled Iranian blood. Even a sinking Europe, which had begun to show remorse in its support of the genocide in Gaza, became enthusiastic again, with Germany, France, and Britain literally begging for their share of the pound of flesh and blood.

The root of the evil here, and the source of all the current wars, is the role that Zionism has assumed as the crushing force of imperialist control in the Middle East. This is the declared strategy of the United States: to ensure Israel’s military superiority over any regional coalition. To secure Israel’s place as a military power that can strike at anyone who threatens American hegemony, the United States must keep Israel in a state of constant conflict and constant danger. 

This strategy paid off on a colossal scale for the United States in the wake of the Six-Day War in 1967, when the crushing Israeli victory over three Arab states led, within a few years, to the collapse of the dreams of independence and Arab socialism of the Nasserists and the left wing of the Ba’ath Party, and the establishment of reactionary and submissive dictatorships.

Since then, much water has flowed through the region’s rivers, hundreds of millions of residents have been added, there has been progress in education and the economy, and the equation that relies on the fortress of Jewish Sparta to maintain imperialist supremacy in the region is becoming less and less sustainable. The United States itself paid a heavy price for its military adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq and emerged from them without any real achievement. Israel failed twice in its wars over Lebanon, in the Eighteen Years’ War (1982-2000) and in its brief adventure in the summer of 2006.

Meanwhile, the wider regional picture has also changed. Instead of pro-Western dictatorships in Turkey and Iran, populist Islamist governments have risen in the two regional powers, which are more responsive to public opinion in their countries and tend to identify with Palestinian suffering and resistance and to denounce Israel’s aggression.

For a long time, imperialist politics in the region were based on the principle of “divide and rule.” The main axis of nurtured conflict among the Muslim population was between Sunnis and Shiites. The grand idea was, within the framework of the “Abraham Accords,” to establish a defense alliance under Israeli-American auspices that would protect the oil kings and emirs of the Arabian Peninsula from the “Iranian threat” (and from their own people), in exchange for continued effective American control over the region’s natural resources and economy.

Even as the Palestinians did not receive massive support that would allow them to exercise their human and national rights, the Palestinian struggle was and remains a central axis that challenges the system of imperialist control in the region. The identification with the Palestinians by both Sunnis and Shiites, and, more recently, the shock of the unbridled violence perpetrated by Israel since October 7, and the exposure of the racist Pavlovian instinct of all Western powers in supporting the genocide in Gaza, all of which have changed and are still changing the map of the region for the long term.

Meanwhile, Israel has become embroiled in war on many fronts, struggling to achieve a decisive victory and reap the fruits of its military superiority. In Six Days in 1967, Israel militarily defeated three Arab countries and occupied vast areas. Now, for more than 600 days, it has been unable to defeat Palestinian resistance to the occupation of the Gaza Strip, which had been under a suffocating siege for many years before the current genocidal war. 

The only arena in which Israel has achieved a military and political victory is its struggle against Hezbollah in Lebanon, due to a combination of tactical failures on the part of Hezbollah and the fact that, as a representative of the oppressed Shiite minority, it had no full Lebanese legitimacy to intervene in the war. However, in Lebanon too, Israel’s insistence on continuing to hold occupied territory within Lebanon, with constant offensive military activity all over the country, keeps this front in the context of a violent conflict that has not ended and with no end in sight.

In Yemen, the government that came to power in Sanaa on the waves of the Arab Spring, and survived an all-out war by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Emirates, continues to try and pressure an end to the attack on Gaza through a naval blockade and repeated attacks. Even before the conflict with Israel, Yemen was the poorest country in the region and is still torn by civil war. Despite its limited capabilities, repeated attacks by a coalition of Western countries led by the United States and Israeli attacks on economic infrastructure have failed to change Yemen’s position.

The expansion of the war into Syria after the fall of the Assad regime adds another layer to the logic of the conflict. The new Syrian regime, which emerged after 14 years of revolution and civil war at the cost of about a million lives and immense destruction, declared from the moment it was established that it was committed to the 1974 armistice agreements and that it did not want conflicts with any neighboring country. Despite this, and despite the military erosion of the multi-front war, Israel decided to open another front against Syria, conquering additional territories (in addition to the Syrian Golan Heights captured in 1967), bombing all over Syria, and threatening the new regime. This completely exposed the logic of the “villa in the jungle”: in order for the villa to remain a villa, it must ensure that the jungle remains a jungle, and any attempt to build a normal society and state in the region is an existential threat to it. 

The attack on Iran took this logic a step further. Israeli strategic superiority must be guaranteed not only against four hundred million Arabs but also against all other countries of the region. The Israeli method of killing Iranian scientists, which did not begin with the latest attack, brutally presents the concept of how the colonialist “local branch of Western culture” will be able to maintain its technological superiority.

On the nuclear question

As a university student, I took a course on “International Relations After World War II,” that is, the Cold War between the Western powers and the Soviet Union. The lecturer always talked about how Western leaders planned to confront “The Soviet Threat.” In “Operation Unthinkable,” which was to begin as early as July 1945, Churchill planned to mobilize the surrendered Wehrmacht troops to attack the Soviet Union and drop (American) atomic bombs on Moscow, Stalingrad, and Kiev. In 1949, the US planned a larger operation (“Operation Dropshot“) that involved the use of 300 atomic bombs and the destruction of 100 cities and towns in the Soviet Union.

In 1949, the Soviet Union conducted its first nuclear weapons test, which cooled America’s enthusiasm for a direct confrontation with it. Following the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, after the Soviet Union had proven that it could create a real nuclear threat to the U.S., talks began between the parties, and the Cold War gradually moved into the “détente” phase.

In my naivete, I asked the lecturer: According to what you taught us, as long as nuclear weapons were only in the hands of the West, we were on the verge of a nuclear war. Only when a “balance of terror” was created did the tension subside. How does this fit in with saying that the problem was “The Soviet Threat”? It seems the opposite is true…

He replied that from the perspective of the sequence of events, what I said made sense, but “no one in political science would agree” with my conclusion…

As far as is known (“according to foreign sources”), Israel possesses a large number of nuclear weapons, which the Western powers helped it develop. To this day, they defend Israel’s “right” to violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in all international forums. Israeli politicians and various experts have said that Israel has already considered using nuclear weapons against Arab countries several times, in moments of crisis. The climax came during the latest attack on Gaza, when lunatic extremist politicians fantasized about using an atomic bomb to annihilate Gaza as “revenge.” And, please, don’t tell me that the lunatic extremist right is far from the center of decision-making in Israel. As long as nuclear weapons are in the hands of one side in the region, there is a temptation to use them, thus creating an existential threat to the residents of the entire region. Clearly, the best situation is to have the entire region free of nuclear weapons. But history has proven that a nuclear balance of terror can also guarantee that nobody uses these weapons.

The West’s position on the Iranian nuclear issue is, on a regional scale, a repetition of its position on the denial of legitimacy of the Palestinian resistance. No matter how much Israel occupies and oppresses Palestinians, robs their land, destroys their homes, and kills them. Israel always “has the right to self-defense” and the Palestinian who defends his rights is always the “terrorist”. The ultimate way to ensure Israel’s “strategic superiority” in the region is to allow it, in a “time of need,” to wipe out millions of the inhabitants of the region using atomic weapons. This is the essence of the “Western Values” that they claim to stand for. 

The Gulf states, which grovel to the rulers of the United States and Europe, thought they were buying their favor, so that they would stop the massacre in Gaza. They also hoped to prevent the war with Iran, which endangers the security of all the countries in the region. Instead, surprise, surprise, it turns out that the money they gave to the U.S. continues to fund the genocide against Palestinians and the bombings of Lebanon and Syria. Furthermore, they are effectively paying the United States for the privilege of being on the receiving end of a future nuclear annihilation.

Where are we going from here?

As the saying goes: It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

It is difficult to know what will happen, but there are many things that are unlikely not to happen. At the beginning of the current “war” in Gaza, the American administration’s emissaries used to ask Netanyahu what were his plans for “the day after.” What is your end game?

To this day, they have not received an answer, and this is not by chance. Israel lives from war to war and is unable to imagine a different reality, let alone take action to create it. The historical logic was that Israel attacks in order to impose the American “day after” on the Arabs. For this equation to hold, there should be an American administration that is capable and willing to stop Israel’s aggression and force concessions on it. In the meantime, the Americans have fallen in love with Israel’s aggression. Even more importantly, the United States really has nothing to offer the region these days.

We are living at the end of “the American era.” Today, China is the main economic partner for trade and development for the countries of the region, as well as elsewhere. The United States still retains its military superiority, at the price of huge military investment. To benefit from this superiority, it is inclined to militarize international politics, as is evident in Ukraine and East Asia, just like in our region. Israel’s military and political power is a reflection of American superiority. 

The U.S. military advantage is eroding as it loses its economic and technological leadership. When it uses military force to try to preserve or restore its world hegemony, it is not advancing itself but trying to push others backward. Humanity is paying an awful cost, but the U.S. decline is also accelerating.

The current war in the Middle East is part of a desperate effort to preserve the remnants of colonialism and Western superiority over the peoples of the Third World. The Palestinian people are paying a terrible, unbearable price for this. But the future will not be determined by the politicians of the West or the corrupt rulers of the region who grovel to them, but by the peoples who will stand up for their right to determine their own destiny.


This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by Yoav Haifawi.

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US strikes on Iran may strengthen North Korea’s nuclear resolve, experts warn https://rfa.org/english/korea/2025/06/23/north-korea-iran-nuclear-strikes-impact/ https://rfa.org/english/korea/2025/06/23/north-korea-iran-nuclear-strikes-impact/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 20:12:16 +0000 https://rfa.org/english/korea/2025/06/23/north-korea-iran-nuclear-strikes-impact/ The U.S. air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities will have reinforced North Korea’s perception that possessing nuclear weapons is essential for its survival and may even prompt Pyongyang to accelerate the development of its nuclear capabilities, warned South Korean experts.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday announced that the U.S. had conducted “massive precision strikes” on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – that has “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities.

The attack on Iran’s nuclear sites marks the first offensive U.S. military action in Israel’s war with Iran – a major escalation in tensions in the Middle East – which South Korean analysts warn will make North Korea increasingly resistant to any diplomatic efforts or talks aimed at convincing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program.

“North Korea must have thought it was a good idea to have nuclear weapons after seeing the U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities,” Jeong Seong-jang, deputy director of the Sejong Institute, told Radio Free Asia on Monday.

In a statement Monday, a spokesperson for the North Korean Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying it “violated the U.N. Charter and international law, which have as their basic principles respect for sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs,” North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reported.

This image distributed by the North Korean government on March 24, 2022, and not independently verifiable shows leader Kim Jong Un walking away from what state media reports as a
This image distributed by the North Korean government on March 24, 2022, and not independently verifiable shows leader Kim Jong Un walking away from what state media reports as a "new type" of intercontinental ballistic missile.
(KCNA via Reuters)

Despite calls by the U.S. and its allies for denuclearization, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has pushed for his country to bolster its nuclear capabilities to defend itself, warning earlier this year that “confrontation with the most vicious hostile countries is inevitable.” While the “hostile countries” were not named, North Korea regards the U.S. and its ally, South Korea, as its main enemies.

In 2003, North Korea withdrew after acceding to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), shortly after the U.S. invaded Iraq. It cited concerns, at the time, that the U.S. was planning a preemptive strike against Pyongyang.

“North Korea is (likely to be) concerned that if it gives up its nuclear weapons, it will end up in a situation similar to Iran, and will not accept future proposals for denuclearization discussions.”

He warned the strikes may even prompt North Korea – which conducted its first underground nuclear test in 2006 – to accelerate the development of nuclear submarines in an effort to secure so-called ‘second-strike’ capabilities – or the ability to launch retaliatory nuclear strikes after a preemptive one.

Other South Korean experts echoed similar concerns.

“Kim Jong Un will probably order the relocation, hiding, and concealment of nuclear facilities, as well as the expansion of air defense systems,” Professor Nam Seong-wook of Sookmyung Women’s University told RFA.

This image distributed by the North Korean government on March 24, 2022, and not independently verifiable shows leader Kim Jong Un walking away from what state media reports as a
This image distributed by the North Korean government on March 24, 2022, and not independently verifiable shows leader Kim Jong Un walking away from what state media reports as a "new type" of intercontinental ballistic missile.
(KCNA via Reuters)

In a social media post, Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, argued that the U.S. strikes would cause North Korea to further solidify its perception that “only possession of nuclear weapons can lead to survival” and provide much-needed validation for Pyongyang to hold on to its nuclear arsenal.

Since 2006, North Korea has tested nuclear devices six times and has developed missiles believed to be capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.

During his first term, Trump held historic summits with Kim Jong Un, hoping to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief, but his high-level diplomacy ultimately failed to achieve a breakthrough. The North has continued to build its nuclear and missile programs.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that North Korea has assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more warheads and is accelerating the production of further fissile material.

Earlier this year, Pyongyang reiterated that it has no intention of giving up its nuclear program.

North Korea would now view diplomatic engagement with the United States as “foolish” and any future negotiations of denuclearization as futile, Kim Dong-yeop wrote in a social media post on Sunday.

“North Korea will use the Iran situation as an excuse to strengthen its criticism of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation,” he added.

Written by Tenzin Pema. Edited by Mat Pennington.


This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by Han Do-hyung for RFA Korean.

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Calls for New Zealand to denounce United States attack on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/calls-for-new-zealand-to-denounce-united-states-attack-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/calls-for-new-zealand-to-denounce-united-states-attack-on-iran/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 19:51:19 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116590 By Lillian Hanly, RNZ News political reporter

Prominent lawyers are joining opposition parties as they call for the New Zealand government to denounce the United States attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iranian New Zealander and lawyer Arman Askarany said the New Zealand government was showing “indifference”.

It comes as acting Prime Minister David Seymour told reporters on Monday there was “no benefit” in rushing to a judgment regarding the US attack.

  • READ MORE: Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to ceasefire
  • RNZ Pacific live updates about the Middle East conflict
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

US President Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to end the “12-day war,” with the truce taking effect in stages over 24 hours, following Iran’s missile attack on a US base in Qatar.

🔴 Follow our LIVE coverage: https://t.co/f0V5nlsAMR pic.twitter.com/XC4Xld0Q7U

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) June 24, 2025

“We’re far better to keep our counsel, because it costs nothing to get more information, but going off half-cocked can be very costly for a small nation.”

Iran and Israel continued to exchange strikes over the weekend after Israel’s initial attack nearly two weeks ago.

Israeli authorities say at least 25 people have been killed, and Iran said on Sunday Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people since June 13.

The Human Rights Activists news agency puts the death toll in Iran above 650 people.

US attacked Iran nuclear sites
The US entered the war at the weekend by attacking what it said was key nuclear sites in Iran — including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — on Sunday.

On Monday, the Australian government signalled its support for the strike, and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy.

Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the strike was a unilateral action by its security ally the United States, and Australia was joining calls from Britain and other countries for Iran to return to the negotiating table

Not long after, Foreign Minister Winston Peters issued a statement on X, giving tacit endorsement to the decision to bomb nuclear facilities.

The statement was also released just ahead of the NATO meeting in Brussels, which Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was attending.

Peters said Iran could not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, and noted the United States’ targeted attacks aimed at “degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities”.

He went on to acknowledge the US statement to the UN Security Council saying the attack was “acting in collective self-defence consistent with the UN Charter”.

Self-defence ‘complete joke’
Askarany told RNZ it was a “complete joke” that New Zealand had acknowledged the US statement saying it was self-defence.

“It would be funny if it wasn’t so horrific.”

He said it was a clear escalation by the US and Israel, and believed New Zealand was undermining the rules-based order it purported to support, given it refused to say Israel and the US had attacked Iran.

Askarany acknolwedged the calls for deescalation and for peace in the region, but said they were “abstract platitudes” if the aggressor was not named.

He called on people who might not know about Iran to learn more about it.

“There’s so much history and culture and beautiful things about Iran that represent my people far more than the words of Trump and Netanyahu.”

Peters told RNZ Morning Report on Monday the government wanted to know all the facts before taking a position on the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Politicians at a crossroads
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour held his first post-cabinet media conference on Monday, in which he said nobody was calling on New Zealand to rush to a judgment on the rights and wrongs of the situation.

He echoed the Foreign Minister’s statement, saying “of course” New Zealand noted the US assertion of the legality of their actions.

He also indicated, “like just about every country in the world, that we cannot have a nuclear-armed Iran.”

“That does not mean that we are rushing to form our own judgment on the rights or wrongs or legality of any action.”

He insisted New Zealand was not sitting on the fence, but said “nor are we rushing to judgement.”

“I believe the world is not sitting there waiting for New Zealand to give its position on the legality of the situation.

“What people do want to see is de escalation and dialogue, and most critically for us, the safety of New Zealanders in the region.”

When asked about the Australian government’s position, Seymour said New Zealand did not have the intelligence that other countries may have.

Hikpins says attack ‘disappointing’
Labour leader Chris Hipkins called the attack by the US on Iran “very disappointing”, “not justified” and “almost certainly” against international law.

He wanted New Zealand to take a stronger stance on the issue.

“New Zealand should take a stronger position in condemning the attacks and saying that we do not believe they are justified, and we do not believe that they are consistent with international law.”

Hipkins said the US had not made a case for the action taken, and they should step back and get back around the table with Iran.

The Green Party and Te Pāti Māori both called on the government to condemn the attack by the US.

“The actions of the United States pose a fundamental threat to world peace.

‘Dangerous escalation’
“The rest of the world, including New Zealand, must take a stand and make it clear that this dangerous escalation is unacceptable,” said Green Party coleader Marama Davidson.

“We saw this with the US war on Iraq, and we are seeing it again with this recent attack on Iran. We are at risk of a violent history repeating itself.”

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi said the government was remaining silent on Israel.

“When the US bombs Iran, Luxon calls it an ‘opportunity’. But when Cook Islanders assert their sovereignty or Chinese vessels travel through international waters, he leaps to condemnation,” said Waititi.

“Israel continues to maintain an undeclared nuclear arsenal. Yet this government won’t say a word.

“It condemns non-Western powers at every turn but remains silent when its allies act with impunity.”

International law experts weigh in
University of Waikato Professor Alexander Gillespie said it was “an illegal war” and the option of diplomacy should have been exhausted before the first strike.

As Luxon headed to NATO, Gillespie acknowledged it would be difficult for him to take a “hard line” on the issue, “because he’s going to be caught up with the members and the partners of NATO.”

He said the question would be whether NATO members accept there was a right of self-defence and whether the actions of the US and Israel were justified.

Gillespie said former prime minister Helen Clark spoke very clearly in 2003 against the invasion of Iraq, but he could not see New Zealand’s current Prime Minister saying that.

“That’s not because they don’t believe it, but because there would be a risk of a backhand from the United States.

“And we’re spending a lot of time right now trying not to offend this Trump administration.”

‘Might is right’ precedent
University of Otago Professor Robert Patman said the US strike on Iran would likely “make things worse” and set a precedent for “might is right.”

He said he had “no brief” for the repressive Iranian regime, but under international law it had been subject of “two illegal attacks in the last 10 days”, from Israel and now from the US.

Patman said New Zealand had been guarded in its comments about the attacks on Iran, and believed the country should speak out.

“We have championed non nuclear security since the mid 80s. We were a key player, a leader, of the treaty to abolish nuclear weapons, and that now has 94 signatories.”

He said New Zealand does have a voice and an expectation to contribute to an international debate that’s beginning to unfold.

“We seem to be at a fork in the road moment internationally, we can seek to reinstate the idea that international relations should be based on rules, principles and procedures, or we can simply passively accept the erosion of that architecture, which is to the detriment of the majority of countries in the world.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Progressive Democrats of America Condemns Trump’s Bombing of Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/progressive-democrats-of-america-condemns-trumps-bombing-of-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/progressive-democrats-of-america-condemns-trumps-bombing-of-iran/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 19:41:01 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/progressive-democrats-of-america-condemns-trumps-bombing-of-iran Progressive Democrats of America (PDA) today issued the following statement:

Progressive Democrats of America condemns Trump’s unconstitutional bombing of Iran. We’re outraged by these reckless, lawless, aggressive actions. We support the Khanna/Massie War Powers Resolution to curtail the abuse of war powers.

Donald Trump ordered a surprise bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including sites under international monitoring, without a vote from Congress. Without any public debate. The airstrikes on Iran’s Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites shocked the Congress and the rest of the world including, U.S. allies.

Carried out without congressional authorization or clear evidence of an imminent threat, Trump’s actions blatantly violated the U.S. Constitution as well as U.S. and international law.

As Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) stated: “Trump said he would end wars; now he has dragged America into one. His actions are a clear violation of our Constitution.”

The U.S. intelligence community confirmed in March that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons. There was no emergency, no justification whatsoever. Only Trump’s irrational warmongering.

International leaders responded with horror. As expected, Iran called the attack “a grave violation of the UN Charter.” They’re far from alone in this, however. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned it could spiral into catastrophe. The EU and other nations have also condemned this unprovoked aggression.

Trump’s own political allies expressed dismay. Trump loyalists including Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene called these attacks a betrayal of the “America First” mandate to avoid endless wars.

This is not foreign policy. This is militarized authoritarianism. We must act to stop it now, before it spreads to enflame the entire Middle East, if not the entire globe in dangerous, unnecessary conflict.

We are outraged, but this moment demands more than outrage. It demands organized, coordinated resistance. Progressive Democrats of America (PDA) is helping lead the charge, organizing with our allies inside and outside of Congress to push back.

We’re mobilizing support for the War Powers Resolution and coordinating protests demanding an immediate ceasefire and all party negotiations to achieve a just and durable peace treaty as soon as practicable.

Progressive Democrats of America (PDA) was founded in 2004 to transform the Democratic Party and U.S. politics by working inside and outside of the party. This, by electing empowered progressives and by building the progressive movement in solidarity with with peace, justice, civil rights, environmental, and other reform efforts. For more information about the organization, please see https://PDAmerica.org


This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Newswire Editor.

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How the US and Israel Used Rafael Grossi to Hijack the IAEA and Start a War on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/how-the-us-and-israel-used-rafael-grossi-to-hijack-the-iaea-and-start-a-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/how-the-us-and-israel-used-rafael-grossi-to-hijack-the-iaea-and-start-a-war-on-iran/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 16:04:13 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159390 IAEA Director General Grossi discusses Iran with former Israeli PM Bennett, June 3, 2022  (GPO) Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), allowed the IAEA to be used by the United States and Israel—an undeclared nuclear weapons state in long-term violation of IAEA rules—to manufacture a pretext for war on Iran, […]

The post How the US and Israel Used Rafael Grossi to Hijack the IAEA and Start a War on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
IAEA Director General Grossi discusses Iran with former Israeli PM Bennett, June 3, 2022  (GPO)

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), allowed the IAEA to be used by the United States and Israel—an undeclared nuclear weapons state in long-term violation of IAEA rules—to manufacture a pretext for war on Iran, despite his agency’s own conclusion that Iran had no nuclear weapons program.

On June 12, based on a damning report by Grossi, a slim majority of the IAEA Board of Governors voted to find Iran in non-compliance with its obligations as an IAEA member. Of the 35 countries represented on the Board, only 19 voted for the resolution, while 3 voted against it, 11 abstained and 2 did not vote.

The United States contacted eight board member governments on June 10 to persuade them to either vote for the resolution or not to vote. Israeli officials said they saw the U.S. arm-twisting for the IAEA resolution as a significant signal of U.S. support for Israel’s war plans, revealing how much Israel valued the IAEA resolution as diplomatic cover for the war.

The IAEA board meeting was timed for the final day of President Trump’s 60-day ultimatum to Iran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement. Even as the IAEA board voted, Israel was loading weapons, fuel and drop-tanks on its warplanes for the long flight to Iran and briefing its aircrews on their targets. The first Israeli air strikes hit Iran at 3 a.m. that night.

On June 20, Iran filed a formal complaint against Director General Grossi with the UN Secretary General and the UN Security Council for undermining his agency’s impartiality, both by his failure to mention the illegality of Israel’s threats and uses of force against Iran in his public statements and by his singular focus on Iran’s alleged violations.

The source of the IAEA investigation that led to this resolution was a 2018 Israeli intelligence report that its agents had identified three previously undisclosed sites in Iran where Iran had conducted uranium enrichment prior to 2003. In 2019, Grossi opened an investigation, and the IAEA eventually gained access to the sites and detected traces of enriched uranium.

Despite the fateful consequences of his actions, Grossi has never explained publicly how the IAEA can be sure that Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency or its Iranian collaborators, such as the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (or MEK), did not put the enriched uranium in those sites themselves, as Iranian officials have suggested.

While the IAEA resolution that triggered this war dealt only with Iran’s enrichment activities prior to 2003, U.S. and Israeli politicians quickly pivoted to unsubstantiated claims that Iran was on the verge of making a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence agencies had previously reported that such a complex process would take up to three years, even before Israel and the United States began bombing and degrading Iran’s existing civilian nuclear facilities.

The IAEA’s previous investigations into unreported nuclear activities in Iran were officially completed in December 2015, when IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano published its “Final Assessment on Past and Present Outstanding Issues regarding Iran’s Nuclear Program.”

The IAEA assessed that, while some of Iran’s past activities might have been relevant to nuclear weapons, they “did not advance beyond feasibility and scientific studies, and the acquisition of certain relevant technical competences and capabilities.” The IAEA “found no credible indications of the diversion of nuclear material in connection with the possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program.”

When Yukiya Amano died before the end of his term in 2019, Argentinian diplomat Rafael Grossi was appointed IAEA Director General. Grossi had served as Deputy Director General under Amano and, before that, as Chief of Staff under Director General Mohamed ElBaradei.

The Israelis have a long record of fabricating false evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities, like the notorious “laptop documents” given to the CIA by the MEK in 2004 and believed to have been created by the Mossad. Douglas Frantz, who wrote a report on Iran’s nuclear program for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 2009, revealed that the Mossad created a special unit in 2003 to provide secret briefings on Iran’s nuclear program, using “documents from inside Iran and elsewhere.”

And yet Grossi collaborated with Israel to pursue its latest allegations. After several years of meetings in Israel and negotiations and inspections in Iran, he wrote his report to the IAEA Board of Governors and scheduled a board meeting to coincide with the planned start date for Israel’s war.

Israel made its final war preparations in full view of the satellites and intelligence agencies of the western countries that drafted and voted for the resolution. It is no wonder that 13 countries abstained or did not vote, but it is tragic that more neutral countries could not find the wisdom and courage to vote against this insidious resolution.

The official purpose of the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, is “to promote the safe, secure and peaceful use of nuclear technologies.” Since 1965, all of its 180 member countries have been subject to IAEA safeguards to ensure that their nuclear programs are “not used in such a way as to further any military purpose.”

The IAEA’s work is obviously compromised in dealing with countries that already have nuclear weapons. North Korea withdrew from the IAEA in 1994, and from all safeguards in 2009. The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China have IAEA safeguard agreements that are based only on “voluntary offers” for “selected” non-military sites. India has a 2009 safeguard agreement that requires it to keep its military and civilian nuclear programs separate, and Pakistan has 10 separate safeguard agreements, but only for civilian nuclear projects, the latest being from 2017 to cover two Chinese-built power stations.

Israel, however, has only a limited 1975 safeguards agreement for a 1955 civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States. An addendum in 1977 extended the IAEA safeguards agreement indefinitely, even though the cooperation agreement with the U.S. that it covered expired four days later. So, by a parody of compliance that the United States and the IAEA have played along with for half a century, Israel has escaped the scrutiny of IAEA safeguards just as effectively as North Korea.

Israel began working on a nuclear weapon in the 1950s, with substantial help from Western countries, including France, Britain and Argentina, and made its first weapons in 1966 or 1967. By 2015, when Iran signed the JCPOA nuclear agreement, former Secretary of State Colin Powell wrote in a leaked email that a nuclear weapon would be useless to Iran because “Israel has 200, all targeted on Tehran.” Powell quoted former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad asking, “What would we do with a nuclear weapon? Polish it?”

In 2003, while Powell tried but failed to make a case for war on Iraq to the UN Security Council, President Bush smeared Iran, Iraq and North Korea as an “axis of evil,” based on their alleged pursuit of “weapons of mass destruction.” The Egyptian IAEA Director, Mohamed ElBaradei, repeatedly assured the Security Council that the IAEA could find no evidence that Iraq was developing a nuclear weapon.

When the CIA produced a document that showed Iraq importing yellowcake uranium from Niger, just as Israel had secretly imported it from Argentina in the 1960s, the IAEA only took a few hours to recognize the document as a forgery, which ElBaradei immediately reported to the Security Council.

Bush kept repeating the lie about yellowcake from Niger, and other flagrant lies about Iraq, and the United States invaded and destroyed Iraq based on his lies, a war crime of historic proportions. Most of the world knew that ElBaradei and the IAEA were right all along, and, in 2005, they were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, for exposing Bush’s lies, speaking truth to power and strengthening nuclear non-proliferation.

In 2007, a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) by all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies agreed with the IAEA’s finding that Iran, like Iraq, had no nuclear weapons program. As Bush wrote in his memoirs, “…after the NIE, how could I possibly explain using the military to destroy the nuclear facilities of a country the intelligence community said had no active nuclear weapons program?” Even Bush couldn’t believe he would get away with recycling the same lies to destroy Iran as well as Iraq, and Trump is playing with fire by doing so now.

ElBaradei wrote in his own memoir, The Age of Deception: Nuclear Diplomacy in Treacherous Times, that if Iran did do some preliminary research on nuclear weapons, it probably began during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, after the US and its allies helped Iraq to manufacture chemical weapons that killed up to 100,000 Iranians.

The neocons who dominate U.S. post-Cold War foreign policy viewed the Nobel Prize winner ElBaradei as an obstacle to their regime change ambitions around the world, and conducted a covert campaign to find a more compliant new IAEA Director General when his term expired in 2009.

After Japanese diplomat Yukiya Amano was appointed as the new Director General, U.S. diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks revealed details of his extensive vetting by U.S. diplomats, who reported back to Washington that Amano “was solidly in the U.S. court on every key strategic decision, from high-level personnel appointments to the handling of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program.”

After becoming IAEA Director General in 2019, Rafael Grossi not only continued the IAEA’s subservience to U.S. and Western interests and its practice of turning a blind eye to Israel’s nuclear weapons, but also ensured that the IAEA played a critical role in Israel’s march to war on Iran.

Even as he publicly acknowledged that Iran had no nuclear weapons program and that diplomacy was the only way to resolve the West’s concerns about Iran, Grossi helped Israel to set the stage for war by reopening the IAEA’s investigation into Iran’s past activities. Then, on the very day that Israeli warplanes were being loaded with weapons to bomb Iran, he made sure that the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution to give Israel and the U.S. the pretext for war that they wanted.

In his last year as IAEA Director, Mohamed ElBaradei faced a similar dilemma to the one that Grossi has faced since 2019. In 2008, U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies gave the IAEA copies of documents that appeared to show Iran conducting four distinct types of nuclear weapons research.

Whereas, in 2003, Bush’s yellowcake document from Niger was clearly a forgery, the IAEA could not establish whether the Israeli documents were authentic or not. So ElBaradei refused to act on them or to make them public, despite considerable political pressure, because, as he wrote in The Age of Deception, he knew the U.S. and Israel “wanted to create the impression that Iran presented an imminent threat, perhaps preparing the grounds for the use of force.” ElBaradei retired in 2009, and those allegations were among the “outstanding issues” that he left to be resolved by Yukiya Amano in 2015.

If Rafael Grossi had exercised the same caution, impartiality and wisdom as Mohamed ElBaradei did in 2009, it is very possible that the United States and Israel would not be at war with Iran today.

Mohamed ElBaradei wrote in a tweet on June 17, 2025, “To rely on force and not negotiations is a sure way to destroy the NPT and the nuclear non-proliferation regime (imperfect as it is), and sends a clear message to many countries that their “ultimate security” is to develop nuclear weapons!!!”

Despite Grossi’s role in U.S.-Israeli war plans as IAEA Director General, or maybe because of it, he has been touted as a Western-backed candidate to succeed Antonio Guterres as UN Secretary General in 2026. That would be a disaster for the world. Fortunately, there are many more qualified candidates to lead the world out of the crisis that Rafael Grossi has helped the U.S. and Israel to plunge it into.

Rafael Grossi should resign as IAEA Director before he further undermines nuclear non-proliferation and drags the world any closer to nuclear war. And he should also withdraw his name from consideration as a candidate for UN Secretary General.

The post How the US and Israel Used Rafael Grossi to Hijack the IAEA and Start a War on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies.

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Israeli Strikes Continue Hitting Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/israeli-strikes-continue-hitting-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/israeli-strikes-continue-hitting-iran/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 16:01:00 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=4763d74d19068fff9e711ef9f8228557
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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How Will Iran Retaliate? It Could Close The Strait Of Hormuz. https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/could-iran-block-the-worlds-most-important-oil-route/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/could-iran-block-the-worlds-most-important-oil-route/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 15:22:41 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=99507ff974d4f54a8f8d5bfa9d11f651
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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Ex-Israeli Peace Negotiator Slams U.S. Bombing of Iran, Says Israel Seeks Chaos in Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/ex-israeli-peace-negotiator-slams-u-s-bombing-of-iran-says-israel-seeks-chaos-in-middle-east-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/ex-israeli-peace-negotiator-slams-u-s-bombing-of-iran-says-israel-seeks-chaos-in-middle-east-2/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 15:15:50 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=be1560a2f6a1f9156169ea6613e10f0c
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Does War on Iran Deflect Attention from Genocide in Gaza? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/does-war-on-iran-deflect-attention-from-genocide-in-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/does-war-on-iran-deflect-attention-from-genocide-in-gaza/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 15:05:18 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=318199ac68fd08a58fad7bf5685c5fc4
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Ex-Israeli Peace Negotiator Slams U.S. Bombing of Iran, Says Israel Seeks Chaos in Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/ex-israeli-peace-negotiator-slams-u-s-bombing-of-iran-says-israel-seeks-chaos-in-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/ex-israeli-peace-negotiator-slams-u-s-bombing-of-iran-says-israel-seeks-chaos-in-middle-east/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 12:36:56 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2609dfc38b9988ec2bf6176811d713d7 Seg daniel netanyahu

“Netanyahu’s purpose was to drag Trump in,” Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator, says of the U.S. attack on Iran. Over the weekend, the U.S. directly joined the war between Israel and Iran when it bombed three nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, though it’s unclear how far the strikes have set back the Iranian nuclear program. Israel and the United States accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons, while Iran says its program is for civilian use. United Nations inspectors and U.S. intelligence assessments have said Iran is not building weapons. “The danger now is that, having brought the U.S. into this, Israel will seek to go further up the escalatory ladder,” says Levy. “It wants the chaos.”


This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Stop the War on Iran: 1,000+ Sign Petition Saying Iran War Deflects Attention from Gaza Genocide https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/stop-the-war-on-iran-1000-sign-petition-saying-iran-war-deflects-attention-from-gaza-genocide/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/stop-the-war-on-iran-1000-sign-petition-saying-iran-war-deflects-attention-from-gaza-genocide/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 12:30:25 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=d960b06f9d7df089baab108aa6bfba76 Seg kaveh iran protest

After President Trump’s attack on Iran over the weekend, civil society leaders are organizing to demand an end to the violence. We speak with Iranian American scholar Kaveh Ehsani, associate professor of international studies at DePaul University in Chicago, who helped organize a petition against the war signed by more than 1,000 academics in the United States, Europe and Iran. “What this is doing is immiserating further the lives of ordinary people,” says Ehsani.


This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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NZ Greens call on state to condemn US over ‘dangerous’ attack on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/nz-greens-call-on-state-to-condemn-us-over-dangerous-attack-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/nz-greens-call-on-state-to-condemn-us-over-dangerous-attack-on-iran/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 10:25:55 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116575 Asia Pacific Report

New Zealand’s opposition Green Party has called on the government to condemn the United States for its illegal bombing of Iran and inflaming tensions across the Middle East.

“The actions of the United States pose a fundamental threat to world peace,” said Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson in a statement.

“The rest of the world — including New Zealand– must take a stand and make it clear that this dangerous escalation is unacceptable.

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“We are calling on the New Zealand government to condemn the United States for its attack on Iran. This attack is a blatant breach of international law and yet another unjustified assault on the Middle East from the US.”

Davidson said the country had seen this with the US war on Iraq in 2003, and it was happening again with Sunday’s attack on Iran.

“We are at risk of a violent history repeating itself,” she said.

“[Prime Minister] Christopher Luxon needs to condemn this escalation from the US and rule out any participation in this conflict, or any of the elements of the AUKUS pact.

Independent foreign policy
“New Zealand must maintain its independent foreign policy position and keep its distance from countries that are actively fanning the flames of war.”

Davidson said New Zealand had a long and proud history of standing up for human rights on the world stage.

“When we stand strong and with other countries in calling for peace, we can make a difference. We cannot afford to be a bystander to the atrocities unfolding in front of our eyes.”

It was time for the New Zealand government to step up.

“It has failed to sanction Israel for its illegal and violent occupation of Palestine, and we risk burning all international credibility by failing to speak out against what the United States has just done.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Luxon said New Zealand wanted to see a peaceful stable and secure Middle East, but more military action was not the answer, reports RNZ News.

The UN Security Council met in emergency session today to discuss the US attack on the three key nuclear facilities.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the US bombing marked a “perilous turn” in a region already reeling.

Iran called on the 15-member body to condemn what it called a “blatant and unlawful act of aggression”.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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US Bombs Have Impacted Foundation of Global Security Order https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/us-bombs-have-impacted-foundation-of-global-security-order/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/us-bombs-have-impacted-foundation-of-global-security-order/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 08:10:39 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159361 Destroying peace. Illustration: Liu Rui/GT On Saturday local time, the US announced that it had launched airstrikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran. This marks the first time the US has officially intervened militarily in this round of the Iran-Israel conflict, drawing widespread shock from the international community. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on social […]

The post US Bombs Have Impacted Foundation of Global Security Order first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
Destroying peace. Illustration: Liu Rui/GTDestroying peace. Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

On Saturday local time, the US announced that it had launched airstrikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran. This marks the first time the US has officially intervened militarily in this round of the Iran-Israel conflict, drawing widespread shock from the international community. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on social media that the move was “a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security.” China’s Foreign Ministry also strongly condemned the US attacks on Iran. US action, which seriously violates the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, not only heightens tensions in the Middle East but also risks triggering a wider crisis.

Attacking nuclear facilities is extremely dangerous. Due to their unique nature, damage to such sites could lead to severe nuclear leaks, potentially resulting in humanitarian disasters and posing grave risks to regional safety. The tragic past lessons of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents already showed that the consequences of nuclear leaks don’t pose a threat to a single country – they impact neighboring nations and the global security environment.

By using “bunker-buster” bombs to “accomplish what Israel could not,” the US has deliberately escalated the level of weaponry used, pouring fuel on the flames of war and pushing the Iran-Israel conflict closer toward an uncontrollable state.

What the US bombs have impacted is the foundation of the international security order. By attacking nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Washington has set a dangerous precedent. This action, in essence, bypasses both the UN Security Council and the IAEA framework, attempting to unilaterally “resolve” the Iranian nuclear issue through force. This is a serious violation of the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, as well as a rejection of the principled position of the international community, including China and the European Union, which has dealt with the Iranian nuclear issue through multilateral negotiations for many years. Washington’s boast of close cooperation with Israel “as a team” confirms its nature of dragging its ally against international morality and multilateralism.

For Iran, the strike is a blatant provocation. After responding that it “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests and people,” Tehran on Sunday launched the powerful Kheibar Shekan missile targeting Israel for the first time. According to media reports, Ismail Kowsari, a member of the National Security Commission of the Parliament in Iran, said the country’s parliament voted to approve the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council is expected to weigh in and make a final decision on the matter. Iran is located in the choke point of the Strait of Hormuz, which around one-fifth of the world’s total oil and gas consumption transits through. Once this channel is blocked by the war, international oil prices are bound to fluctuate dramatically, while global shipping security and economic stability will face serious challenges.

The US military’s “direct involvement” has further complicated and destabilized the Middle East situation, drawing more countries and innocent civilians into the conflict and forcing them to face a loss. Even the Associated Press called the airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities a “perilous decision,” while the New York Times warned that US military action against Iran would “bring risks at every turn.” What is also receiving a lot of attention is that due to US strike on Iran, Yemen’s Houthis announced it would resume attacks on US ships in the Red Sea. The region is already entangled in a complex web of sectarian divisions, proxy wars and external interventions. The facts show that US involvement is causing the Iran-Israel conflict to spill over. Within just one day, international investors rushed to sell off risk assets, and discussions of a “sixth Middle East war” surged across media platforms, reflecting the global community’s growing anxiety over the region’s spiraling instability.

China has consistently opposed the threat and abuse of using force. It advocates resolving crises through political and diplomatic means. In a recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward a “four-point proposal” regarding the Middle East situation: promoting a cease-fire and ending the hostilities is an urgent priority; ensuring the safety of civilians is of paramount importance; opening dialogue and negotiation is the fundamental way forward; and efforts by the international community to promote peace are indispensable. This proposal reflects China’s long-standing and farsighted security vision. History in the Middle East has repeatedly shown that external military intervention never brings peace – it only deepens regional hatred and trauma. The false logic behind US coercion by force runs counter to peace. Hopefully, the parties involved, especially Israel, will implement an immediate cease-fire, ensure the safety of civilians and open dialogue and negotiation to restore peace and stability in the region.

The post US Bombs Have Impacted Foundation of Global Security Order first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Global Times.

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Directive to Iran: Retaliation Bad; De-Escalation Good https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/directive-to-iran-retaliation-bad-de-escalation-good/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/directive-to-iran-retaliation-bad-de-escalation-good/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 07:52:29 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159386 De-escalation has become one of those coarse words in severe need of banishment, best kept in an index used by unredeemable hypocrites. It is used by the living dead in human resources, management worthies and war criminals. It’s almost always used to target the person or entity that exerts retribution or seeks to avenge (dramatic) […]

The post Directive to Iran: Retaliation Bad; De-Escalation Good first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
De-escalation has become one of those coarse words in severe need of banishment, best kept in an index used by unredeemable hypocrites. It is used by the living dead in human resources, management worthies and war criminals. It’s almost always used to target the person or entity that exerts retribution or seeks to avenge (dramatic) or merely overcome (mildly) a state of affairs imposed upon them.

You might be bullied in the workplace for being fastidious and conscientious, showing up your daft colleagues, or reputationally attacked by a member of the establishment keen to conceal his corrupt practices. When contemplating retaliation, the self-appointed middle ground types will call upon you to “de-escalate” the situation, insisting that you appeal to the better side of your bruised nature. After all, you know it was your fault.

The joining of the United States in the war against Iran made Washington a co-conspirator to soiling international law and profaning its salient provisions. The US was in no immediate danger, nor was there any imminent threat, existential or otherwise, to its interests vis-à-vis Tehran. Yet President Donald Trump, having had the poison of persuasion poured into his ear by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had succumbed. His will annexed to that of the Israeli premier, Trump ordered the US Air Force on June 22 to conduct bombing raids on three Iranian nuclear facilities: Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow. They were recipients of that hefty example of phallocratic lethality known as the bunker buster, the GBU-57A Massive Ordnance Penetrator. With his usual unwavering confidence, Trump declared in an address to the nation that all the country’s “nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”

In violating international law and desecrating that important canon injuncting states from committing crimes against peace, Israel and the United States are not the ones being told to restrain their violence and acknowledge breaching the United Nations Charter, risking yet another conflagration in the Middle East. It is their targeted state, the Republic of Iran, whose officials must “de-escalate” and play nice before the diplomatic table, abandoning a nuclear program, civil or military. “Iran, the bully of the Middle East,” Trump directs, “must now make peace.”

With suddenness, the advocates and publicists for international law vanished across the broadly described West. In Europe, Canada, the US and Australia, the mores and customs observed by states could be conveniently forgotten and retired. In its place reigned the logic of brute force and unquestioned violence. Provided such violence is exercised by that rogue combine of Amerisrael, deference and dispensation will be afforded. The same could never be said for such countries as China and Russia, abominated for not accepting the “rules-based order” imposed by Western weaponry and force.

The lamentable, plaintiff responses from Brussels to Canberra tell a sorry tale: pre-emptive war waged against a country’s nuclear and oil facilities is just the sort of thing that one is allowed to do, since the rotter in question is a theocratic state of haughty disposition and regional ambition. You can get away with murdering scientists in their sleep, along with their families, liquidating the upper echelons of their military leadership and killing journalists along the way.

The approved formula behind these responses is as follows. From the outset, mention that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon. If possible, underline any relevant qualities that render it ineligible to any other state that has nuclear weapons. Instruct Tehran that diplomacy is imperative, and retaliation terrible. Behave and exercise restraint.

Here is Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer of the UK, speaking from his Chequers country retreat: it was “clear Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon”, which was “why our focus has been on de-escalating, getting people back around to negotiate what is a very real threat in relation to the nuclear program.” If one was left in any doubt who the guilty party was, UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds helped dispel it, calling Iran “a threat to this country, not in an abstract way, not in a speculative way”.

The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, after convening his security cabinet on the morning of June 22, conveyed his views through German government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius: “Friedrich Merz reiterated his call for Iran to immediately begin negotiations with the US and Israel and to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict.”

French President Emmanuel Macron similarly got on the de-escalation bandwagon with gusto, giving a teacherly warning to Iran to “exercise the greatest restraint” and dedicate itself to renouncing nuclear weapons. It was the only credible path to peace and security for all. The president conveniently skipped past the huge elephant in the room: Israel’s illicit possession of nuclear weapons, undeclared, unmonitored and extra-legal, as a factor that severely compromises the issue of stability in the Middle East.

From the European Union, the attackers and the attacked were given equal billing. “I urge all sides to step back, return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation,” urged Kaja Kallas, Vice-President of the European Commission. The obligatory “Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, as it would be a threat to international security” followed. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also thought it perfectly sensible to matronly instruct the Iranians on the next step: “Now is the moment for Iran to engage in a credible diplomatic solution. The negotiating table is the only way to end this crisis.”

All these comments are deliciously rich given that Israel has never entertained negotiations on any level with Iran, dismissive of its nuclear energy needs, while the first Trump administration sabotaged the diplomatically brokered Joint Plan of Comprehensive Action that successfully diverted Tehran away from a military nuclear program in favour of a lifting of sanctions. Talk from Amerisrael and their allies would seem to be heavily discounted, if not counterfeit. The glaring, coruscating message to Iran: retaliation bad; de-escalation good.

The post Directive to Iran: Retaliation Bad; De-Escalation Good first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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Israeli propagandists nervous about Iran war https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/israeli-propagandists-nervous-about-iran-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/israeli-propagandists-nervous-about-iran-war/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 03:01:18 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9f129ce256874772b02bf6ee5bc72545
This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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‘Mossad stenographers’: Grayzone exclusive on Trump admin’s Iran war fiasco https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/mossad-stenographers-grayzone-exclusive-on-trump-admins-iran-war-fiasco/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/mossad-stenographers-grayzone-exclusive-on-trump-admins-iran-war-fiasco/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 02:57:35 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=98971a260c629700925b496d69a9c596
This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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‘Stop bombing Iran now!’: Baltimoreans protest #trump war on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/stop-bombing-iran-now-baltimoreans-protest-trump-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/stop-bombing-iran-now-baltimoreans-protest-trump-war-on-iran/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 02:34:53 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=fe94bb0fe91846bf3089f737feb3379c
This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by The Real News Network.

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Defence Force to send plane to assist New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/defence-force-to-send-plane-to-assist-new-zealanders-stranded-in-iran-and-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/23/defence-force-to-send-plane-to-assist-new-zealanders-stranded-in-iran-and-israel/#respond Mon, 23 Jun 2025 00:20:41 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116552 By Giles Dexter, RNZ News political reporter

The Defence Force is sending a plane to the Middle East to assist any New Zealanders stranded in Iran or Israel.

The C-130J Hercules, along with government personnel, will leave Auckland on Monday.

Airspace is still closed in the region, but Defence Minister Judith Collins said the deployment was part of New Zealand’s contingency plans.

  • READ MORE:  Leaders in US-affiliated Pacific react to surprise strikes on Iran
  • NZ group slams Israeli ‘hoodwinking’ of US over nuclear strikes — Peters calls for talks
  • US bombs Iranian nuclear sites – Iran fires missiles at Israel
  • US strikes: Ignore the propaganda, 10 forces will shape the Iran-Israel war
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

“Airspace in Israel and Iran remains heavily restricted, which means getting people out by aircraft is not yet possible, but by positioning an aircraft, and defence and foreign affairs personnel in the region, we may be able to do more when airspace reopens,” she said.

The government was also in discussions with commercial airlines to see what they could do to assist, although it was uncertain when airspace would reopen.

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said New Zealanders should do everything they could to leave now, if they could find a safe route.

“We know it will not be safe for everyone to leave Iran or Israel, and many people may not have access to transport or fuel supplies,” he said.

‘Stay in touch’
“If you are in this situation, you should shelter in place, follow appropriate advice from local authorities and stay in touch with family and friends where possible.”

Peters reiterated New Zealand’s call for diplomacy and dialogue.

“Ongoing military action in the Middle East is extremely worrying and it is critical further escalation is avoided,” he said. “New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy.

“We urge all parties to return to talks. Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

Winston Peters & Judith Collins at the announcement that the Defence Force was sending a plane to the Middle East
NZ’s Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters address the media . . . “Look, this is a danger zone . . . Get out if you possibly can.” Image: RNZ/Calvin Samuel

It will take a few days for the Hercules to reach the region.

New Zealanders in Iran and Israel needing urgent consular assistance should call the Ministry’s Emergency Consular Call Centre on +64 99 20 20 20.

New Zealand hoped the aircraft and personnel would not be needed, and diplomatic efforts would prevail, Collins re-iterated.

The ministers would not say where exactly the plane and personnel would be based, for security reasons.

Registered number in Iran jumps
Peters told reporters the number of New Zealanders registered in Iran had jumped since the escalation of the crisis.

How the New Zealand Herald, the country's largest newspaper, reported the US strike on Iran
How the New Zealand Herald, the country’s largest newspaper, reported the US strike on Iran today. Image: APR

“We thought, at a certain time, we had them all counted out at 46,” he said. “It’s far more closer to 80 now, because they’re coming out of the woodwork, despite the fact that, for months, we said, ‘Look, this is a danger zone’, and for a number of days we’ve said, ‘Get out if you possibly can’.”

There were 101 New Zealanders registered in Israel. Again, Peters said the figure had risen recently.

He indicated people from other nations could be assisted, similar to when the NZDF assisted in repatriations from New Caledonia last year.

Labour defence spokesperson Peeni Henare supported the move.

“I acknowledge the news that the New Zealand Defence Force will soon begin a repatriation mission to the Middle East, and thank the crew and officials on this mission for their ongoing work to bring New Zealanders home safely,” he said.

While he agreed with the government that the attacks were a dangerous escalation of the conflict and supported the government’s calls for dialogue, he said the US bombing of Iran was a breach of international law and the government should be saying it.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Leaders in US-affiliated Pacific react to surprise strikes on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/leaders-in-us-affiliated-pacific-react-to-surprise-strikes-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/leaders-in-us-affiliated-pacific-react-to-surprise-strikes-on-iran/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 23:33:11 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116541 By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent

Leaders in the US-affliliated Pacific Islands have reacted to the US strikes on Iran.

US president Donald Trump said Iran must now make peace or “we will go after” other targets in Iran, after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US had begun a “dangerous war against Iran”, according to a statement shared by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.

  • READ MORE: NZ group slams Israeli ‘hoodwinking’ of US over nuclear strikes — Peters calls for talks
  • US bombs Iranian nuclear sites – Iran fires missiles at Israel
  • US strikes: Ignore the propaganda, 10 forces will shape the Iran-Israel war
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

Governor Arnold Palacios of the Northern Marianas said he WAs “monitoring the situation in our region with our US military partners”.

“The Northern Marianas remains alert and we remain positively hopeful and confident that peace and diplomacy reign for the benefit of our fellow brethren here at home and around the world.”

Governor Arnold Palacios of the Northern Marianas
Governor Arnold Palacios of the Northern Marianas . . . “monitoring the situation.” Image: Mark Rabago/RNZ Pacific

Delegate Kimberlyn King-Hinds said the Marianas had long understood “the delicate balance between strategic presence and peace”.

“As tensions rise in the Middle East, I’m hopeful that diplomacy remains the guiding force,” she said.

“My prayers are with the service members and their families throughout the region, most especially those from our islands who quietly serve in defense of global stability.”

No credible threats
Guam’s Governor Lou Leon Guerrero said that there were no credible threats to their island, and “we will do everything in our power to keep Guam safe”.

“Our people have always been resilient in the face of uncertainty, and today, as we watch our nation take action overseas, that strength matters more than ever,” she said.

“Guam is proud to support the men and women who serve our country — and we feel the weight of that commitment every day as home to vital military installations.”

She said she and her team have been in close touch with local military leaders.

“I encourage everyone to stay calm and informed by official sources, to look out for one another, and to hold in our thoughts the troops, their loved ones, and all innocent people caught in this conflict.”

Lieutenant-Governor Josh Tenorio said: “What is unfolding in the Middle East is serious, and it reminds us that our prayers and our preparedness must go hand in hand.

“While we stand by our troops and support our national security, we also remain committed to the values of peace and resilience. Our teams are working closely with our Homeland Security advisor, Joint Region Marianas, Joint Task Force-Micronesia, and the Guam National Guard to stay ahead of any changes.”

Long-time warnings
Meanwhile, Mark Anufat Terlaje-Pangelinan, one of the protesters during the recent 32nd Pacific Islands Environmental Training Symposium on Saipan, said he was not surprised by the US attack on Iran.

“This is exactly what we concerned citizens have been warning against for the longest time,” he said.

Terlaje-Pangelinan said the potential of CNMI troops and the Marianas itself being dragged into a wider and more protracted conflict was disheartening.

“Perpetuating the concept of the CNMI being a tip of the spear more than being a bridge for peace between the Pacific landscapes does more harm than good.

“The CNMI will never be fully prepped for war. With our only safe havens being the limited number of caves we have on island, we are at more risk to be under attack than any other part of America.”

Iran requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, it said in a letter issued Sunday, urging the council to condemn the US strikes on its nuclear facilities.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described the US military action in Iran as a direct threat to world peace and security.

Officials in Iran are downplaying the impact of US strikes on its nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow site buried deep in the mountains, in sharp contrast with Trump’s claims that the attack “obliterated” them.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Iran Hits Israel After US Bombs Its Nuclear Sites https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/iran-hits-israel-after-us-bombs-its-nuclear-sites/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/iran-hits-israel-after-us-bombs-its-nuclear-sites/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 15:19:42 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=29b357ab4fbbdd9ce962a85ff3382970
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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Illegal US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities came in spite of no evidence https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/illegal-us-attack-on-irans-nuclear-facilities-came-in-spite-of-no-evidence/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/illegal-us-attack-on-irans-nuclear-facilities-came-in-spite-of-no-evidence/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 11:56:37 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116566 BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

Kia ora koutou,

I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

The US struck three of Iran’s nuclear facilities overnight, entering the illegal aggression on Iran with heavy airstrikes despite no evidence that nuclear weapons are being developed. Israel continued its strikes attacking dozens of locations across Iran throughout the day. Three were killed in an Israeli drone attack on an ambulance in central Iran. At least 400 have been killed and 2000 injured, according to the latest Health Ministry figures.

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Heavy Iranian retaliation strikes on Israeli territories saw about 27 injured.

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At least 47 killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza today, 18 while seeking aid. Two killed and 15 wounded in an Israeli airstrike on a house west of Gaza city. The murder of firefighter Muhammad Ghurab brings the total Gaza civil defence casualties to 121, representing 14.3 percent of its employees.

Today I met a 10-year-old kid called Hassan on the streets of Bethlehem. He was looking for work. His dad had recently stopped working, unemployed like many in Bethlehem; around 80 percent of jobs here depend on tourism. He lives in al-Khader village, an hour’s walk away, but without opportunities there he had walked all this way in an attempt to help support his family.

Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank has suffocated the economy here for decades. Now, as the genocidal war on Gaza continues and Israeli aggression expands to Iran, drawing in the USA and threatening regional collapse, a 10-year-old boy takes to the streets of Bethlehem to find work.

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Israel’s illegal siege across the West Bank continues. Large numbers of Israeli soldiers conducted extensive raids on Bethlehem’s Dheisheh camp including demolitions, arrests, and interrogations last night. Mass demolitions continue across Nour Shams camp in the north, and further arrests, demolitions, and incursions took place across the West Bank. Bethlehem’s gasoline shortages continue due to Israel’s ongoing siege.

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Twenty five killed in a terror attack targeting Mar Elias Church in Damascus, Syria.

Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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NZ group slams Israeli ‘hoodwinking’ of US over nuclear strikes – Peters calls for talks https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/nz-group-slams-israeli-hoodwinking-of-us-over-nuclear-strikes-peters-calls-for-talks/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/nz-group-slams-israeli-hoodwinking-of-us-over-nuclear-strikes-peters-calls-for-talks/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 07:59:45 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116505 Asia Pacific Report

The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa has called on New Zealanders to condemn the US bombing of Iran.

PSNA co-chair Maher Nazzal said in a statement that he hoped the New Zealand government would be critical of the US for its war escalation.

“Israel has once again hoodwinked the United States into fighting Israel’s wars,” he said.

  • READ MORE: US bombs Iranian nuclear sites – Iran fires missiles at Israel
  • US strikes: Ignore the propaganda, 10 forces will shape the Iran-Israel war
  • Other Middle East crisis reports

“Israel’s Prime Minister has [been declaring] Iran to be on the point of producing nuclear weapons since the 1990s.

“It’s all part of his big plan for expulsion of Palestinians from Palestine to create a Greater Israel, and regime change for the entire region.”

Israel knew that Arab and European countries would “fall in behind these plans” and in many cases actually help implement them.

“It is a dreadful day for the Palestinians. Netanyahu’s forces will be turned back onto them in Gaza and the West Bank.”

‘Dreadful day’ for Middle East
“It is just as dreadful day for the whole Middle East.

“Trump has tried to add Iran to the disasters of US foreign policy in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The US simply doesn’t care how many people will die.”

New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters “acknowledged the development in the past 24 hours”, including President Trump’s announcement of the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

He described it as “extremely worrying” military action in the Middle East, and it was critical further escalation was avoided.

“New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy. We urge all parties to return to talks,” he said.

“Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

The Australian government said in a statement that Canberra had been clear that Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme had been a “threat to international peace and security”.

It also noted that the US President had declared that “now is the time for peace”.

“The security situation in the region is highly volatile,” said the statement. “We continue to call for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy.”

Iran calls attack ‘outrageous’
However, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the “outrageous” US attacks on Iran’s “peaceful nuclear installations” would have “everlasting consequences”.

His comments come as an Iranian missile attack on central and northern Israel wounded at least 23 people.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Dr Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said the people of Iran feared that Israel’s goals stretched far beyond its stated goal of destroying the country’s nuclear and missile programmes.

“Many in Iran believe that Israel’s end game, really, is to turn Iran into Libya, into Iraq, what it was after the US invasion in 2003, and/or Afghanistan.

“And so the dismemberment of Iran is what Netanyahu has in mind, at least as far as Tehran is concerned,” he said.

US attack ‘more or less guarantees’ Iran will be nuclear-armed within decade

‘No evidence’ of Iran ‘threat’
Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said there had been “absolutely no evidence” that Iran posed a threat.

“Neither was it existential, nor imminent,” he told Al Jazeera.

“We have to keep in mind the reality of the situation, which is that two nuclear-equipped countries attacked a non-nuclear weapons state without having gotten attacked first.

“Israel was not attacked by Iran — it started that war; the United States was not attacked by Iran — it started this confrontation at this point.”

Dr Parsi added that the attacks on Iran would “send shockwaves” throughout the world.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Skewed Diplomacy: Europe, Iran and Unhelpful Nuclear Nonsense https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/skewed-diplomacy-europe-iran-and-unhelpful-nuclear-nonsense/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/skewed-diplomacy-europe-iran-and-unhelpful-nuclear-nonsense/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 06:45:45 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159352 Farce is a regular feature of international relations. It can be gaudy and lurid, dressed up in all manner of outfits. It can adopt an absurd visage that renders the subject comical and lacking in credibility. That subject is the European Union, that curious collective of cobbled, sometimes erratic nation states that has pretensions of […]

The post Skewed Diplomacy: Europe, Iran and Unhelpful Nuclear Nonsense first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
Farce is a regular feature of international relations. It can be gaudy and lurid, dressed up in all manner of outfits. It can adopt an absurd visage that renders the subject comical and lacking in credibility. That subject is the European Union, that curious collective of cobbled, sometimes erratic nation states that has pretensions of having a foreign policy, hints at having a security policy and yearns for a cohering enemy.

With its pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and much civilian infrastructure besides, Israel is being treated as a delicate matter. Condemnation of its attacks as a violation of Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter, which prohibits the threat or use of force against independent, sovereign states, should have been a formality. Likewise, the violation of the various protocols dealing with the protection of civilian infrastructure and nuclear facilities.

Rather than chastise Israel for committing a crime against peace, Iran was chided for exercising a retaliatory right that arose the moment Israeli weaponry started striking targets across the country on June 12. A villain had been identified, but it was not Israel.

With this skewed and absurd assessment of self-defence, notably by the Europeans and the US, French President Emmanuel Macron could only weakly declare that it was “essential to urgently bring these military operations to an end, as they pose serious threats to regional security.” On June 18, he gave his foreign minister Jean-Nöel Barrott the task of launching an “initiative, with close European partners, to propose a […] negotiated settlement, designed to end the conflict.” The initiative, to commence as talks on June 20 in Geneva, would involve the foreign ministers of France and Germany, along with Iran’s own Abbas Araghchi and relevant officials from the European Union.

Not much in terms of detail has emerged from that gathering, though Macron was confident, after holding phone talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, of a “path” that would “end war and avoid even greater dangers”. To attain that goal, “we will accelerate the negotiations led by France and its European partners with Iran.”

It has been reported that the E3 countries (France, Germany and the UK) felt that Israel would refuse to accept a ceasefire as things stood, while the resumption of negotiations between Tehran and Washington seemed unlikely. With these factors in mind, the proposal entailed conducting a parallel process of negotiations that would – again, a force of parochial habit – focus on Iranian conduct rather than Israeli aggression. Iran would have to submit to more intrusive inspections, not merely regarding its nuclear program but its ballistic missile arsenal, albeit permitting Tehran a certain uranium enrichment capacity.

It was clear, in short, who was to wear the dunce’s hat. As Macron reiterated, Tehran could never acquire nuclear weapons. “It is up to Iran to provide full guarantees that its intentions are peaceful.”

A senior Iranian official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, saw little to impress him. “The discussions and proposals made by the Europeans in Geneva were unrealistic. Insisting on these positions will not bring Iran and Europe closer to an agreement.” Having given the proposals a cold shower, the official nonetheless conceded that “Iran will review the European proposals in Tehran and present its responses in the next meeting.”

The European proposals were more than unrealistic. They did nothing to compel Israel to stop its campaign, effectively making the Iranians concede surrender and return to negotiations even as their state is being destabilised. While their command structure and nuclear scientific establishment face liquidation, their civilian infrastructure malicious destruction, they are to be the stoic ones of the show, turning the other cheek. With this, Israel can operate outside the regulatory frameworks of nuclear non-proliferation, being an undeclared nuclear weapons state that also refuses to submit to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The European proposition would also do nothing to stop what are effectively war crimes happening, and being planned, in real time. The EU states have made little of the dangers associated with Israel’s striking of nuclear facilities, something they were most willing to do when Russia seized the Zaporizhzhia plant from Ukraine in March 2022. During capture, the plant was shelled, while the ongoing conflict continues to risk the safety of the facility.

The International Committee for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) has also drawn attention to the critical risks associated with attacking nuclear facilities. “The use of force against nuclear facilities,” it stated in a media release, “violates international law and risks radioactive contamination with long-term consequences for human health and environment.” That same point has been made by the director general of the IAEA, Rafael Marino Grossi. “Military escalation,” stated Grossi on June 16, “threatens lives, increases the chance of radiological release with serious consequences for people and the environment and delays indispensable work towards a diplomatic solution for the long-term assurance that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon.”

US President Donald Trump’s own assessment of the EU’s feeble intervention was self-serving but apposite. “Nah, they didn’t help.” The Iranians did not care much for the Europeans. “They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help on this one.” In fact, the European effort, led unconvincingly by Macron, is looking most unhelpful.

The post Skewed Diplomacy: Europe, Iran and Unhelpful Nuclear Nonsense first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/skewed-diplomacy-europe-iran-and-unhelpful-nuclear-nonsense/feed/ 0 540452
US strikes: Ignore the propaganda, 10 forces will shape the Iran-Israel war https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/us-strikes-ignore-the-propaganda-10-forces-will-shape-the-iran-israel-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/us-strikes-ignore-the-propaganda-10-forces-will-shape-the-iran-israel-war/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 03:45:41 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116493

The US-Israeli attack against Iran will intensify the forces that are already destroying international law legacies and the UN system in the Middle East and most of the world, writes Rami Khouri.

ANALYSIS: By Rami G. Khouri

Israel’s attacks on military, civilian, and infrastructural sites throughout Iran and the repeated Iranian retaliatory attacks against targets across Israel have rattled the existing power balance across the Middle East — but the grave consequences of this new war for the region and the world’s energy supplies and economies will only be clarified in the weeks ahead.

It is already clear that Israel’s surprise attack did not achieve a knock-out blow to Iran’s nuclear sector, its military assets, or its ruling regime, while Iran’s consecutive days of rocket and drone attacks suggest that this war could go on for weeks or longer.

The media and public political sphere are overloaded now with propaganda and wishful thinking from both sides, which makes it difficult to discern the war’s outcomes and impacts.

  • READ MORE: Trump says US has bombed Iran’s Fordow, Isfahan, Natanz nuclear sites – and warns against retaliation
  • Other Middle East reports

For now, we can only expect the fighting to persist for weeks or more, and for key installations in both countries to be attacked, like Israel’s Defence Ministry and Weitzman Institute were a few days ago, along with nuclear facilities, airports, military assets, and oil production facilities in Iran.

So, interested observers should remain humble and patient, as unfolding events factually clarify critical dimensions of this conflict that have long been dominated by propaganda, wishful thinking, muscle-flexing, strategic deception, and supra-nationalist ideological fantasies.

This is especially relevant because of the nature of the war that has already been revealed by the attacks of the past week, alongside military and political actions for and against the US-Israeli genocide and ethnic cleansing aims in Palestine.

This round of US-Israel and Iran fighting has triggered global reactions that show this to be yet another battle between Western imperial/colonial powers and those in the Middle East and the Global South that resist this centuries-old onslaught of control, subjugation, and mayhem.

Identifying critical dimensions
We cannot know today what this war will lead to, but we can identify some critical dimensions that we should closely monitor as the battles unfold. Here are the ones that strike me as the most significant.

First off, the ongoing attacks by Iran and Israel will clarify their respective offensive and defensive capabilities, especially in terms of missiles, drones, and the available defences against them.

Iran has anticipated such an Israeli attack for at least a decade, so we should assume it has also planned many counterattacks, while fortifying its key military and nuclear research facilities and duplicating the most important ones that might be destroyed or damaged.

Second, we will quickly discover the real US role in this war, though it is fair already to see Israel’s attack as a joint US-Israeli effort.

This is because of Washington’s almost total responsibility to fund, equip, maintain, resupply, and protect the Israeli armed forces; how it protects Israel at the UN, ICC, and other fora; and both countries’ shared political goals to bring down the Islamic Republic and replace it with a puppet regime that is subservient to Israeli-US priorities.

Trump claims this is not his war, but Israel’s attacks against Iran, Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon can only happen because of the US commitment by law to Israeli military superiority in the Middle East. The entire Middle East and much of the world see this as a war between the US, Israel, and Iran.

And then today the US strikes on the three Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Al Jazeera's web report of the US attacks on Iran today
Al Jazeera’s web report of the US attacks on Iran today. Image: AJ screenshot APR

Unconventional warfare attacks
We will also soon learn what non-military weapons each side can use to weaken the other. Missiles and drones are a start, but we should expect unconventional warfare attacks against civilian, infrastructural, digital, and financial sector targets that make life difficult for all.

An important factor that will only become clear with time is how this conflict impacts domestic politics in both countries; Iran and Israel each suffer deep internal fissures and some discontent with their regimes. How the war evolves could fragment and weaken either country, or unite their home citizenries.

Also important will be how Arab leaders react to events, especially those who chose to develop much closer financial, commercial, and defence ties with the US, as we saw during Trump’s Gulf visit last month. Some Arab leaders have also sought closer, good neighbourly relations with Iran in the last three years, while a few moved closer to Israel at the same time.

Arab leaders and governments that choose the US and Israel as their primary allies, especially in the security realm, while the attacks on Gaza and Iran go on, will generate anger and opposition by many of their people; this will require the governments to become more autocratic, which will only worsen the legacy of modern Arab autocrats who ignore their people’s rights and wellbeing.

Arab governments mostly rolled over and played dead during the US-Israeli Gaza genocide, but in this case, they might not have the same opportunity to remain fickle in the face of another aggressive moral depravity and emerge unscathed when it is over.

If Washington gets more directly involved in defending Israel, we are likely to see a response from voters in the US, especially among Trump supporters who don’t want the US to get into more forever wars.

Support for Israel is already steadily declining in the US, and might drop even faster with Washington now engaging directly in fighting Iran, because the Israeli-US attack is already based on a lie about Iran’s nuclear weapons, and American popular opinion is increasingly critical of Israel’s Gaza genocide.

Iran’s allies tested
The extent and capabilities of Iran’s allies across the Middle East will, too, be tested in the coming weeks, especially Hezbollah, Hamas, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq. They have all been weakened recently by Israeli-American attacks, and both their will and ability to support Iran are unclear.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees this attack as the last step in his strategy to reorganise and re-engineer the Middle East, to make all states dependent on Israeli approval of their strategic policies. A few already are.

Netanyahu has been planning this regional project for over a decade, including removing Saddam Hussein, weakening Hezbollah and Hamas, hitting Yemen, and controlling trends inside Syria now that Bashar al-Assad is gone.

We will find out in due course if this strategy will rearrange Arab-Middle East dynamics, or internal Israeli-American ones.

The cost of this war to Israeli citizens is a big unknown, but a critical one. Israelis now know what it feels like in Southern Lebanon or Gaza. Millions of Israelis have been displaced, emigrated, or are sheltering in bunkers and safe rooms.

This is not why the State of Israel was created, according to Zionist views, which sought a place where Jews could escape the racism and pogroms they suffered in Europe and North America from the 19th Century onwards.

Most dangerous place
Instead, Israel is the most dangerous place for Jews in the world today.

This follows two decades in which all the Arabs, including Palestinians and Hamas, have expressed their willingness to coexist in peace with Israel, if Israel accepts the Palestinians’ right to national self-determination and pertinent UN resolutions that seek to guarantee the security and legitimacy of both Israeli and Palestinian states.

The US-Israeli attack against Iran will intensify the forces that are already destroying international law legacies and the UN system in the Middle East and most of the world. The US-Israel pursue this centuries-old Western colonial-imperial action to deny indigenous people their national rights at a time when they have already ignored the global anti-genocide convention by destroying life and systems that allow life to exist in Gaza.

Rami G Khouri is a distinguished fellow at the American University of Beirut and a nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington. He is a journalist and book author with 50 years of experience covering the Middle East. Dr Khouri can be followed on Twitter @ramikhouri This article was first published by The New Arab before the US strikes on Iran.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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US strikes: Ignore the propaganda, 10 forces will shape the Iran-Israel war https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/us-strikes-ignore-the-propaganda-10-forces-will-shape-the-iran-israel-war-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/us-strikes-ignore-the-propaganda-10-forces-will-shape-the-iran-israel-war-2/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 03:45:41 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116493

The US-Israeli attack against Iran will intensify the forces that are already destroying international law legacies and the UN system in the Middle East and most of the world, writes Rami Khouri.

ANALYSIS: By Rami G. Khouri

Israel’s attacks on military, civilian, and infrastructural sites throughout Iran and the repeated Iranian retaliatory attacks against targets across Israel have rattled the existing power balance across the Middle East — but the grave consequences of this new war for the region and the world’s energy supplies and economies will only be clarified in the weeks ahead.

It is already clear that Israel’s surprise attack did not achieve a knock-out blow to Iran’s nuclear sector, its military assets, or its ruling regime, while Iran’s consecutive days of rocket and drone attacks suggest that this war could go on for weeks or longer.

The media and public political sphere are overloaded now with propaganda and wishful thinking from both sides, which makes it difficult to discern the war’s outcomes and impacts.

  • READ MORE: Trump says US has bombed Iran’s Fordow, Isfahan, Natanz nuclear sites – and warns against retaliation
  • Other Middle East reports

For now, we can only expect the fighting to persist for weeks or more, and for key installations in both countries to be attacked, like Israel’s Defence Ministry and Weitzman Institute were a few days ago, along with nuclear facilities, airports, military assets, and oil production facilities in Iran.

So, interested observers should remain humble and patient, as unfolding events factually clarify critical dimensions of this conflict that have long been dominated by propaganda, wishful thinking, muscle-flexing, strategic deception, and supra-nationalist ideological fantasies.

This is especially relevant because of the nature of the war that has already been revealed by the attacks of the past week, alongside military and political actions for and against the US-Israeli genocide and ethnic cleansing aims in Palestine.

This round of US-Israel and Iran fighting has triggered global reactions that show this to be yet another battle between Western imperial/colonial powers and those in the Middle East and the Global South that resist this centuries-old onslaught of control, subjugation, and mayhem.

Identifying critical dimensions
We cannot know today what this war will lead to, but we can identify some critical dimensions that we should closely monitor as the battles unfold. Here are the ones that strike me as the most significant.

First off, the ongoing attacks by Iran and Israel will clarify their respective offensive and defensive capabilities, especially in terms of missiles, drones, and the available defences against them.

Iran has anticipated such an Israeli attack for at least a decade, so we should assume it has also planned many counterattacks, while fortifying its key military and nuclear research facilities and duplicating the most important ones that might be destroyed or damaged.

Second, we will quickly discover the real US role in this war, though it is fair already to see Israel’s attack as a joint US-Israeli effort.

This is because of Washington’s almost total responsibility to fund, equip, maintain, resupply, and protect the Israeli armed forces; how it protects Israel at the UN, ICC, and other fora; and both countries’ shared political goals to bring down the Islamic Republic and replace it with a puppet regime that is subservient to Israeli-US priorities.

Trump claims this is not his war, but Israel’s attacks against Iran, Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon can only happen because of the US commitment by law to Israeli military superiority in the Middle East. The entire Middle East and much of the world see this as a war between the US, Israel, and Iran.

And then today the US strikes on the three Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Al Jazeera's web report of the US attacks on Iran today
Al Jazeera’s web report of the US attacks on Iran today. Image: AJ screenshot APR

Unconventional warfare attacks
We will also soon learn what non-military weapons each side can use to weaken the other. Missiles and drones are a start, but we should expect unconventional warfare attacks against civilian, infrastructural, digital, and financial sector targets that make life difficult for all.

An important factor that will only become clear with time is how this conflict impacts domestic politics in both countries; Iran and Israel each suffer deep internal fissures and some discontent with their regimes. How the war evolves could fragment and weaken either country, or unite their home citizenries.

Also important will be how Arab leaders react to events, especially those who chose to develop much closer financial, commercial, and defence ties with the US, as we saw during Trump’s Gulf visit last month. Some Arab leaders have also sought closer, good neighbourly relations with Iran in the last three years, while a few moved closer to Israel at the same time.

Arab leaders and governments that choose the US and Israel as their primary allies, especially in the security realm, while the attacks on Gaza and Iran go on, will generate anger and opposition by many of their people; this will require the governments to become more autocratic, which will only worsen the legacy of modern Arab autocrats who ignore their people’s rights and wellbeing.

Arab governments mostly rolled over and played dead during the US-Israeli Gaza genocide, but in this case, they might not have the same opportunity to remain fickle in the face of another aggressive moral depravity and emerge unscathed when it is over.

If Washington gets more directly involved in defending Israel, we are likely to see a response from voters in the US, especially among Trump supporters who don’t want the US to get into more forever wars.

Support for Israel is already steadily declining in the US, and might drop even faster with Washington now engaging directly in fighting Iran, because the Israeli-US attack is already based on a lie about Iran’s nuclear weapons, and American popular opinion is increasingly critical of Israel’s Gaza genocide.

Iran’s allies tested
The extent and capabilities of Iran’s allies across the Middle East will, too, be tested in the coming weeks, especially Hezbollah, Hamas, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq. They have all been weakened recently by Israeli-American attacks, and both their will and ability to support Iran are unclear.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees this attack as the last step in his strategy to reorganise and re-engineer the Middle East, to make all states dependent on Israeli approval of their strategic policies. A few already are.

Netanyahu has been planning this regional project for over a decade, including removing Saddam Hussein, weakening Hezbollah and Hamas, hitting Yemen, and controlling trends inside Syria now that Bashar al-Assad is gone.

We will find out in due course if this strategy will rearrange Arab-Middle East dynamics, or internal Israeli-American ones.

The cost of this war to Israeli citizens is a big unknown, but a critical one. Israelis now know what it feels like in Southern Lebanon or Gaza. Millions of Israelis have been displaced, emigrated, or are sheltering in bunkers and safe rooms.

This is not why the State of Israel was created, according to Zionist views, which sought a place where Jews could escape the racism and pogroms they suffered in Europe and North America from the 19th Century onwards.

Most dangerous place
Instead, Israel is the most dangerous place for Jews in the world today.

This follows two decades in which all the Arabs, including Palestinians and Hamas, have expressed their willingness to coexist in peace with Israel, if Israel accepts the Palestinians’ right to national self-determination and pertinent UN resolutions that seek to guarantee the security and legitimacy of both Israeli and Palestinian states.

The US-Israeli attack against Iran will intensify the forces that are already destroying international law legacies and the UN system in the Middle East and most of the world. The US-Israel pursue this centuries-old Western colonial-imperial action to deny indigenous people their national rights at a time when they have already ignored the global anti-genocide convention by destroying life and systems that allow life to exist in Gaza.

Rami G Khouri is a distinguished fellow at the American University of Beirut and a nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington. He is a journalist and book author with 50 years of experience covering the Middle East. Dr Khouri can be followed on Twitter @ramikhouri This article was first published by The New Arab before the US strikes on Iran.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Trump Calls US Strikes On Iran Nuclear Facilities ‘Spectacular Military Success’ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/trump-calls-us-strikes-on-iran-nuclear-facilities-spectacular-military-success/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/22/trump-calls-us-strikes-on-iran-nuclear-facilities-spectacular-military-success/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 03:13:43 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=7425d348c45c2887bcf541b8f2eb3c2d
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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Starving Gaza civilians toll climbs at Israeli humanitarian ‘death traps’ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/starving-gaza-civilians-toll-climbs-at-israeli-humanitarian-death-traps/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/starving-gaza-civilians-toll-climbs-at-israeli-humanitarian-death-traps/#respond Sat, 21 Jun 2025 20:27:03 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116523 Pacific Media Watch

BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

Kia ora koutou,

I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

Israeli forces killed over 200 Palestinians in Gaza over the last 48 hours, injuring over 1037. Countless more remain under the rubble and in unreachable zones. 450 killed seeking aid, 39 missing, and around 3500 injured at the joint US-Israeli humanitarian foundation “death traps”.

Forty one  killed by Israeli forces since dawn today, including three children in an attack east of Gaza City. Gaza’s Al-Quds brigades destroyed a military bulldozer in southern Gaza.

*

Settlers, protected by soldiers, violently attacked Palestinian residents near the southern village of Susiya last night, including children. The West Bank siege continues with Israeli occupation forces severely restricting movement between Palestinian towns and cities. Continued military/settler assaults across the occupied territories.

*

Iranian strikes targeted Ben Gurion airport and several military sites in the Israeli territories. Israeli regime discuss a 3.6 billion shekel defence budget increase.

*

400 killed and 3000 injured by Israel’s attacks on Iran, in the nine days since Israel’s aggression began. Iranian authorities have arrested dozens more linked to Israeli intelligence, and cut internet for the last three days to prevent internal drone attacks from agents within their territories.

Israeli strikes have targeted a wide range of sites; missile depots, nuclear facilities, residential areas, and reportedly six ambulances today.

Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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Why Do We Hate Iran? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/why-do-we-hate-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/why-do-we-hate-iran/#respond Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:05:37 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159290 Because they deserve it? Because we’re told to? Or because, in truth, we play dirty given the slightest excuse. Britain and America would like everyone to believe that hostilities with Iran began with the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But you have to go back over 70 years to find the root cause in America’s case, while […]

The post Why Do We Hate Iran? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
Because they deserve it? Because we’re told to? Or because, in truth, we play dirty given the slightest excuse.

Britain and America would like everyone to believe that hostilities with Iran began with the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But you have to go back over 70 years to find the root cause in America’s case, while Iranians have endured more than a century of British exploitation and bullying. The US-UK Axis don’t want this important slice of history resurrected to become part of public discourse. Here’s why.

William Knox D’Arcy, having obtained a 60-year oil concession to three-quarters of Persia and with financial support from Glasgow-based Burmah Oil, eventually found oil in commercial quantities in 1908.  The Anglo-Persian Oil Company was formed and in 1911 and completed a pipeline from the oilfield to its new refinery at Abadan.

Just before the outbreak of World War 1 Winston Churchill, then First Lord of the Admiralty, wanted to convert the British fleet from coal. To secure a reliable oil source the British Government took a major shareholding in Anglo-Persian.

In the 1920s and 1930s, the company profited hugely from paying the Persians a miserly 16% and refusing to renegotiate terms. An angry Persia eventually cancelled the D’Arcy agreement and took the matter to the Court of International Justice in The Hague. A new agreement in 1933 provided Anglo-Persian with a fresh 60-year concession but on a smaller area. The terms were slightly improved but still didn’t amount to a square deal.

In 1935 Persia became known internationally by its other name, Iran, and the company was re-named Anglo-Iranian Oil. By 1950 Abadan was the biggest oil refinery in the world and the British government, with its 51% holding, had affectively colonized part of southern Iran.

Iran’s tiny share of the profits had long soured relations and so did the company’s treatment of its oil workers. 6,000 went on strike in 1946 and the dispute was brutally put down with 200 dead or injured. In 1951 while Aramco shared profits with the Saudis on a 50/50 basis Anglo-Iranian handed Iran a miserable 17.5%.

Hardly surprising, then, that Iran wanted economic and political independence. Calls to nationalise its oil could no longer be ignored. In March of that year the Majlis and Senate voted to nationalize Anglo-Iranian, which had controlled Iran’s oil industry since 1913 under terms frankly unfavourable to the host country.

Social reformer Dr Mohammad Mossadeq was named prime minister by a 79 to 12 majority and promptly carried out his government’s wishes, cancelling Anglo-Iranian’s oil concession and expropriating its assets. His explanation was perfectly reasonable:

Our long years of negotiations with foreign countries… have yielded no results thus far. With the oil revenues, we could meet our entire budget and combat poverty, disease, and backwardness among our people.

Another important consideration is that by the elimination of the power of the British company, we would also eliminate corruption and intrigue, by means of which the internal affairs of our country have been influenced…. Iran will have achieved its economic and political independence. (M. Fateh, Panjah Sal-e Naft-e Iran, p. 525)

Britain, determined to bring about regime change, orchestrated a worldwide boycott of Iranian oil, froze Iran’s sterling assets and threatened legal action against anyone purchasing oil produced in the formerly British-controlled refineries. The Iranian economy was soon in ruins… All sounds very familiar, doesn’t it?

Churchill (prime minister at the time) let it be known that Mossadeq was turning communist and pushing Iran into the arms of Russia just when Cold War anxiety was high. That was enough to bring America’s new president, Eisenhower, onboard and plotting with Britain to bring Mossadeq down.

So began a nasty game of provocation, mayhem and deception. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in exile, signed two decrees, one dismissing Mossadeq and the other nominating the CIA’s choice, General Fazlollah Zahedi, as prime minister. These decrees were written as dictated by the CIA. The coup by MI6 and the CIA was successful and in August 1953, when it was judged safe for him to do so, the Shah returned to take over.

For his impudence Mossadeq was arrested, tried, and convicted of treason by the Shah’s military court. He was imprisoned for 3 years then put under house arrest until his death. He remarked: “My greatest sin is that I nationalized Iran’s oil industry and discarded the system of political and economic exploitation by the world’s greatest empire… I am well aware that my fate must serve as an example in the future throughout the Middle East in breaking the chains of slavery and servitude to colonial interests.”

His supporters were rounded up, imprisoned, tortured or executed. Zahedi’s new government reached an agreement with foreign oil companies to form a consortium to restore the flow of Iranian oil, awarding the US and Great Britain the lion’s share, with 40% going to Anglo-Iranian.

The consortium agreed to split profits on a 50-50 basis with Iran but refused to open its books to Iranian auditors or allow Iranians to sit on the board.

The US massively funded the Shah’s government, including his army and his hated secret police force, SAVAK. Anglo-Iranian changed its name to British Petroleum in 1954. Mossadeq died in 1967.

Smouldering resentment for more than 70 years

The British-American conspiracy that toppled Mossadeq, reinstated the Shah and let the American oil companies in, was the final straw for the Iranians. It all backfired 25 years later with the Islamic Revolution of 1978-9, the humiliating 444-day hostage crisis in the American embassy and a tragically botched rescue mission.

If Britain and America had played fair and allowed the Iranians to determine their own future instead of using economic terrorism to bring the country to its knees Iran might today be “the only democracy in the Middle East”, a title falsely claimed by Israel which is actually a repulsive ethnocracy. So never mention the M-word MOSSADEQ – the Iranian who dared to break the chains of slavery and servitude to Western colonial interests.

Is Britain incapable of playing fair? During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) the US, and eventually Britain, leaned strongly towards Saddam and the alliance enabled Saddam to more easily acquire or develop forbidden chemical and biological weapons. At least 100,000 Iranians fell victim to them.

This is how John King, writing in 2003, summed it up. “The United States used methods both legal and illegal to help build Saddam’s army into the most powerful army in the Mideast outside of Israel. The US supplied chemical and biological agents and technology to Iraq when it knew Iraq was using chemical weapons against the Iranians. The US supplied the materials and technology for these weapons of mass destruction to Iraq at a time when it was known that Saddam was using this technology to kill his Kurdish citizens.

“The United States supplied intelligence and battle planning information to Iraq when those battle plans included the use of cyanide, mustard gas and nerve agents. The United States blocked the UN censure of Iraq’s use of chemical weapons. The United States did not act alone in this effort. The Soviet Union was the largest weapons supplier, but England, France, and Germany were also involved in the shipment of arms and technology.”

The company I worked for at that time supplied the Iranian government with electronic components for military equipment and we were mulling an invitation to set up a factory in Tehran when the UK Government announced it was revoking all export licences to Iran. They had decided to back Saddam. Hundreds of British companies were forced to abandon the Iranians at a critical moment.

Betraying Iran and throwing our weight behind Saddam went well, didn’t it?

Saddam was overthrown in April 2003 following the US/UK-led invasion of Iraq, and hanged in messy circumstances after a dodgy trial in 2006. The dirty work was left to the Provisional Iraqi Government. At the end of the day, we couldn’t even ensure that Saddam was dealt with fairly. “The trial and execution of Saddam Hussein were tragically missed opportunities to demonstrate that justice can be done, even in the case of one of the greatest crooks of our time”, said the UN Human Rights Council’s expert on extrajudicial executions.

Philip Alston, a law professor at New York University, pointed to three major flaws leading to Saddam’s execution. “The first was that his trial was marred by serious irregularities denying him a fair hearing and these have been documented very clearly. Second, the Iraqi Government engaged in an unseemly and evidently politically motivated effort to expedite the execution by denying time for a meaningful appeal and by closing off every avenue to review the punishment. Finally, the humiliating manner in which the execution was carried out clearly violated human rights law.”

In 2022 when Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian, was freed after five years in a Tehran prison it transpired that the UK had owed around £400m to the Iranian government arising from the non-delivery of Chieftain battle tanks ordered by the Shah of Iran before his overthrow in 1979. Iran had been pursuing the debt for over four decades. In 2009 an international court in the Netherlands ordered Britain to repay the money. Iranian authorities said Nazanin would be released when the UK did so, but she suffered those years of incarceration, missing her children and husband in the UK, while the British government took its own sweet time before finally paying up.

Now we’re playing dirty yet again, supporting an undemocratic state, Israel, which is run by genocidal maniacs and has for 77 years defied international law and waged a war of massacre, terror and dispossession against the native Palestinians. And we’re even protecting it in its lethal quarrel with Iran.

It took President Truman only 11 minutes to accept and extend full diplomatic relations to Israel when the Zionist entity declared statehood in 1948 despite the fact that it was still committing massacres and other terrorist atrocities. Israel’s evil ambitions and horrendous tactics were well known and documented right from the start but eagerly backed and facilitated by the US and UK. In the UK’s case betrayal of the Palestinians began in 1915 thanks to Zionist influence. Even Edwin Montagu, the only Jew in the British Cabinet at that time, described Zionism as “a mischievous political creed, untenable by any patriotic citizen of the United Kingdom”.

Sadly, the Zionist regime’s unspeakable cruelty and inhumanity against unarmed women and children in Gaza and the West Bank — bad enough in the decades before October 2023 but now showing the Israelis as the repulsive criminals they’ve always been — still isn’t enough to end US-UK adoration and support. UK prime minister Starmer much prefers to talk about “the malign influence of Iran”

The excuse this time is that Iran’s nuclear programme might be about to produce weapons-grade material which is bad news for Israel. There’s a blanket ‘hush’ over Israel’s 200 (or is it 400?) nukes. The US and UK and allies think it’s OK for mad-dog Israel to have nuclear weapons but not Iran which has to live under this horrific Israeli threat. Then there’s America’s QME doctrine which guarantees Israel a ‘Qualitative Military Edge’ over its Middle East neighbours.

Then consider that Israel is the only state in the region not to have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It hasn’t signed the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention either. It has signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, similarly the Chemical Weapons Convention. Yes, it’s quite evident that the Zionist entity, not Iran, is the ultimate “malign influence” in the Middle East.

The post Why Do We Hate Iran? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Stuart Littlewood.

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FAQ: Israel’s Illegal War on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/faq-israels-illegal-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/faq-israels-illegal-war-on-iran/#respond Sat, 21 Jun 2025 14:00:43 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159306 It has been one week since Israel launched a dangerous war against Iran. With so much misinformation and pro-war propaganda being repeated by politicians and news media, CJPME has just issued a new factsheet that addresses critical questions, including: Was Israel’s attack pre-emptive or illegal? Is there evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon? Does […]

The post FAQ: Israel’s Illegal War on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
It has been one week since Israel launched a dangerous war against Iran. With so much misinformation and pro-war propaganda being repeated by politicians and news media, CJPME has just issued a new factsheet that addresses critical questions, including:

  • Was Israel’s attack pre-emptive or illegal?
  • Is there evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon?
  • Does Israel have nuclear weapons?

Factsheet: Israel’s Illegal War With Iran

Was Israel’s attack pre-emptive or illegal?

Israel and the U.S. have characterized the June 13 attacks on Iran as a pre-emptive act of self-defence, and Canada and the G7 echoed this framing, stating that Israel has “a right to defend itself.”

However, legal experts widely dispute this justification. Given the lack of evidence of an imminent attack by Iran, experts argue that Israel’s use of force violated Article 2(4) of the Charter of the United Nations and, therefore, was unlawful and amounts to the crime of aggression.

Israel’s targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities — which, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), resulted in damage or destruction of centrifuges — also violates international law. IAEA resolutions affirm that any armed attack on nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes is a violation of the principles of the UN Charter, international law and the Statute of the Agency.

Is there evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon?

No, there is no evidence that Iran is actively building a nuclear weapon. Neither the UN nor the IAEA have accused Iran of attempting to build a nuclear weapon. Nor has Israel provided any evidence to support its claim that Iran is close to acquiring a nuclear bomb.

Will Israel’s attack address nuclear proliferation?

No, and some experts argue that Israel’s attacks on Iran could paradoxically fuel both the Iranian government and public to seek a nuclear deterrent.

Israel itself is believed to have more than 90 nuclear weapons, and the capacity to produce many more, according to the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. However, Israel does not acknowledge the existence of a nuclear arsenal. Israel is also not a party to the NPT (unlike Iran), and therefore does not allow international inspections and is not subject to any safeguards (unlike Iran).

The post FAQ: Israel’s Illegal War on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East.

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Another Iraq? Military expert warns US has no real plan if it joins Israel’s war on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/another-iraq-military-expert-warns-us-has-no-real-plan-if-it-joins-israels-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/another-iraq-military-expert-warns-us-has-no-real-plan-if-it-joins-israels-war-on-iran/#respond Sat, 21 Jun 2025 13:35:11 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116485 Democracy Now!

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, held talks with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom yesterday in Geneva as Israel’s attacks on Iran entered a second week.

A US-based Iranian human rights group reports the Israeli attacks have killed at least 639 people. Israeli war planes have repeatedly pummeled Tehran and other parts of Iran. Iran is responded by continuing to launch missile strikes into Israel.

Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have protested in Iran against Israel. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to give mixed messages on whether the US will join Israel’s attack on Iran.

On Wednesday, Trump told reporters, “I may do it, I may not do it”. On Thursday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt delivered a new statement from the President.

KAROLINE LEAVITT: “Regarding the ongoing situation in Iran, I know there has been a lot of speculation among all of you in the media regarding the president’s decision-making and whether or not the United States will be directly involved.

“In light of that news, I have a message directly from the president. And I quote, ‘Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.’”

AMY GOODMAN, The War and Peace Report: President Trump has repeatedly used that term, “two weeks,” when being questioned about decisions in this term and his first term as president. Leavitt delivered the message shortly after President Trump met with his former adviser, Steve Bannon, who has publicly warned against war with Iran.

Bannon recently said, “We can’t do this again. We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq,” Bannon said.

This comes as Trump’s reportedly sidelined National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard from key discussions on Iran. In March, Gabbard told lawmakers the intelligence community, “Continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.”

But on Tuesday, Trump dismissed her statement, saying, “I don’t care what she said.”

Earlier Thursday, an Iranian missile hit the main hospital in Southern Israel in Beersheba. After the strike, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, saying Iran’s supreme leader, “Cannot continue to exist.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the hospital and likened Iran’s attack to the London Blitz. Netanyahu stunned many in Israel by saying, “Each of us bears a personal cost. My family has not been exempt. This is the second time my son Avner has cancelled a wedding due to missile threats.”

We’re joined now by William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. His new article for The National Interest is headlined, “Don’t Get Dragged Into a War with Iran.”

Can you talk about what’s going on right now, Bill, the whole question of whether the U.S. is going to use a bunker-buster bomb that has to be delivered by a B-2 bomber, which only the US has?


Another Iraq: Military expert warns US has no real plan    Video: Democracy Now!

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yeah. This is a case of undue trust in technology. The US is always getting in trouble when they think there’s this miracle solution. A lot of experts aren’t sure this would even work, or if it did, it would take multiple bombings.

And of course, Iran’s not going to sit on its hands. They’ll respond possibly by killing US troops in the region, then we’ll have escalation from there. It’s reminiscent of the beginning of the Iraq War, when they said, “It’s going to be a cakewalk. It’s not going to cost anything.”

Couple of trillion dollars, hundreds of thousands of casualties, many US veterans coming home with PTSD, a regime that was sectarian that paved the way for ISIS, it couldn’t have gone worse.

And so, this is a different beginning, but the end is uncertain, and I don’t think we want to go there.

AMY GOODMAN: So, can you talk about the GBU-57, the bunker-buster bomb, and how is it that this discussion going on within the White House about the use of the bomb — and of course, the US has gone back and forth — I should say President Trump has gone back and forth whether he’s fully involved with this war.

At first he was saying they knew about it, but Israel was doing it, then saying, “We have total control of the skies over Tehran,” saying we, not Israel, and what exactly it would mean if the US dropped this bomb and the fleet that the US is moving in?

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yes, well, the notion is, it’s heavy steel, it’s more explosive power than any conventional bomb. But it only goes so deep, and they don’t actually know how deep this facility is buried. And if it’s going in a straight line, and it’s to one side, it’s just not clear that it’s going to work.

And of course, if it does, Iran is going to rebuild, they’re going to go straight for a nuclear weapon. They’re not going to trust negotiations anymore.

So, apparently, the two weeks is partly because Trump’s getting conflicting reports from his own people about this. Now, if he had actual independent military folks, like Mark Milley in the first term, I think we’d be less likely to go in.

But they made sure to have loyalists. Pete Hegseth is not a profile in courage. He’s not going to stand up to Trump on this. He might not even know the consequences. So, a lot of the press coverage is about this bomb, not about the consequences of an active war.

AMY GOODMAN: Right, about using it. In your recent piece, you wrote, “Israeli officials suggested their attacks may result in regime change in Iran, despite the devastating destabilising impact such efforts in the region would have.”

Can you talk about the significance of Israel putting forward and then Trump going back and forth on whether or not Ali Khamenei will be targeted?

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yeah, I think my colleague Trita Parsi put it well. There’s been no example of regime change in the region that has come out with a better result. They don’t know what kind of regime would come in.

Could be to the right of the current one. Could just be chaos that would fuel terrorism, who knows what else.

So, they’re just talking — they’re winging it. They have no idea what they’re getting into. And I think Trump, he doesn’t want to seem like Netanyahu’s pulling him by the nose, so when he gets out in front of Trump, Trump says, “Oh, that was my idea.”

But it’s almost as if Benjamin Netanyahu is running US foreign policy, and Trump is kind of following along.

AMY GOODMAN: You have Netanyahu back in 2002 saying, “Iran is imminently going to have a nuclear bomb.” That was more than two decades ago.

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Exactly. That’s just a cover for wanting to take out the regime. And he spoke to the US Congress, he’s made presentations all over the world, and his intelligence has been proven wrong over, and over, and over.

And when we had the Iran deal, he had European allies, he had China, he had Russia. There hadn’t been a deal like that where all these countries were on the same page in living memory, and it was working.

And Trump trashed it and now has to start over.

AMY GOODMAN: So, talk about the War Powers Act. The Virginia Senator Kaine has said that — has just put forward a bill around saying it must be — Congress that must vote on this. Where is [Senator] Chuck Schumer [Senate minority leader]? Where is [Hakeem] Jeffries [Congress minoroity leader] on this, the Democratic House and Senate leaders?

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Well, a lot of the so-called leaders are not leading. When is the moment that you should step forward if we’re possibly going to get into another disastrous war? But I think they’re concerned about being viewed as critical of Israel.

They don’t want to go out on a limb. So, you’ve got a progressive group that’s saying, “This has to be authorised by Congress.” You’ve got Republicans who are doubtful, but they don’t want to stand up to Trump because they don’t want to lose their jobs.

“Risk your job. This is a huge thing. Don’t just sort of be a time-server.

AMY GOODMAN: So, according to a report from IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, released in May, Iran has accumulated roughly 120 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which is 30 percent away from weapons-grade level of 90 percent. You have Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, saying this week that they do not have evidence that Iran has the system for a nuclear bomb.

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yes, well, a lot of the discussion points out — they don’t talk about, when you’ve got the uranium, you have to build the weapon, you have to make it work on a missile.

It’s not you get the uranium, you have a weapon overnight, so there’s time to deal with that should they go forward through negotiations. And we had a deal that was working, which Trump threw aside in his first term.

AMY GOODMAN: Talk about the foreign minister of Iran, Araghchi, in Geneva now speaking with his counterparts from Britain, France, the EU.

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Well, I don’t think US allies in Europe want to go along with this, and I think he’s looking for some leverage over Trump. And of course, Trump is very hard to read, but even his own base, the majority of Trump supporters, don’t want to go to war.

You’ve got people like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon saying it would be a disaster. But ultimately, it comes down to Trump. He’s unpredictable, he’s transactional, he’ll calculate what he thinks it’ll mean for him.

AMY GOODMAN: And what impact does protests have around the country, as we wrap up?

WILLIAM HARTUNG: Well, I think taking the stand is infectious. So many institutions were caving in to Trump. And the more people stand up, 2000 demonstrations around the country, the more the folks sitting on the fence, the millions of people who, they’re against Trump, but they don’t know what to do, the more of us that get involved, the better chance we have of turning this thing around.

So, we should not let them discourage us. We need to build power to push back against all these horrible things.

AMY GOODMAN: Finally, if the US were to bomb the nuclear site that it would require the bunker-buster bomb to hit below ground, underground. Are we talking about nuclear fallout here?

WILLIAM HARTUNG: I think there would certainly be radiation that would of course affect the Iranian people. They’ve already had many civilian deaths. It’s not this kind of precise thing that’s only hitting military targets.

And that, too, has to affect Iran’s view of this. They were shortly away from another negotiation, and now their country’s being devastated, so can they trust us?

AMY GOODMAN: Bill Hartung is senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. His new piece for The National Interest is headlined, “Don’t Get Dragged Into a War with Iran.”

Republished from Democracy Now! under Creative Commons.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Analyst dismisses ‘lie by rogue’ Netanyahu over Iran’s nuclear programme https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/analyst-dismisses-lie-by-rogue-netanyahu-over-irans-nuclear-programme/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/analyst-dismisses-lie-by-rogue-netanyahu-over-irans-nuclear-programme/#respond Sat, 21 Jun 2025 03:56:18 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116457 Asia Pacific Report

A leading Middle East analyst has pushed back against US President Donald Trump’s dismissal of the conclusion of his own national intelligence chief, who said in April that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.

Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, said in an interview that Tulsi Gabbard, the US Director of National Intelligence, who issued the determination on Iran, “does not speak for herself” or her team alone.

“She speaks for all the intelligence agencies combined,” Bishara said.

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  • Other Middle East reports

“This intelligence is supposed to be sound. This is not just one person or one team saying something. It’s the entire intelligence community in the United States. He [Trump] would dismiss them? For what?

“For a lie by a rogue element called Benjamin Netanyahu, who has lied all his life, a con artist who is indicted for his crimes in Gaza? It’s just astounding.”

US senators slam Netanyahu
Two US senators have also condemned Netanyahu while Israel continues to bomb and starve Gaza

Chris Van Hollen and Elizabeth Warren, two Democrats in the US Senate, have urged the world to pay attention to what Israel continues to do in Gaza amid its conflict with Iran.

“Don’t look away,” Van Hollen wrote on X. “Since the start of the Israel-Iran war 7 days ago, over 400 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, many shot while seeking food.

“It’s unconscionable that Netanyahu has not allowed international orgs to resume food delivery.”

Warren said the Israeli prime minister “may think no one will notice what he’s doing in Gaza while he bombs Iran”.

“People face starvation. 55,000 killed. Aid workers and doctors turned away at the border. Shooting at innocent people desperate for food. The world sees you, Benjamin Netanyahu,” she wrote.

Israel’s Prime Minister may think no one will notice what he’s doing in Gaza while he bombs Iran.

People face starvation. 55,000 killed. Aid workers and doctors turned away at the border. Shooting at innocent people desperate for food.

The world sees you, Benjamin Netanyahu.

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) June 20, 2025

‘A trust gap’
The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, appealed for an end to the fighting between Israel and Iran, saying that Teheran had repeatedly stated that it was not seeking nuclear weapons.

“Let’s recognise there is a trust gap,” he said.

“The only way to bridge that gap is through diplomacy to establish a credible, comprehensive and verifiable solution — including full access to inspectors of the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency], as the United Nations technical agency in this field.

“For all of that to be possible, I appeal for an end to the fighting and the return to serious negotiations.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres
UN Secretary-General António Guterres . . . “I appeal for an end to the fighting and the return to serious negotiations.” Image: UNweb screenshot APR

Meanwhile, in New Zealand hope for freedom for Palestinians remained high among a group of trauma-struck activists in Cairo.

In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo to Gaza to lend support.

Asia Pacific Report special correspondents report on the saga.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Israel blocks Gaza aid organisations’ access to fuel, hospitals running out https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/israel-blocks-gaza-aid-organisations-access-to-fuel-hospitals-running-out/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/21/israel-blocks-gaza-aid-organisations-access-to-fuel-hospitals-running-out/#respond Sat, 21 Jun 2025 03:00:16 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116475 BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

Kia ora koutou, 

I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

Sixty nine people killed in Gaza, 12 while seeking aid, and 221 injured (172 seeking aid). 11 killed by Israeli airstrike on a house in central Gaza. Qassam Brigades carried out a “complex” ambush against Israeli forces in southern Gaza. Israel are preventing humanitarian organisations from accessing fuel storage sites in the enclave, hospital supplies last for just three days.

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Iranian authorities report five hospitals damaged in targeted Israeli strikes, have arrested 16 agents allegedly linked to Israel, and offered Israeli “collaborators” a pardon if they surrender their drones by July 1.

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Two US destroyers have arrived in the eastern Mediterranean, bringing the total to five in the region and two in the Red Sea.

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An Israeli drone targeted a car in southern Lebanon, violating the existing ceasefire and Lebanese sovereignty yet again.

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Israeli leaders double down on their accusations that Iran is developing nuclear bombs, despite the international watchdog, IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency], saying there is no sufficient evidence. 18 injured by Iranian missile in the southern Israeli territories, 17 in Haifa. Strikes targeted Israel’s Channel 14 news stations as threatened, after Israeli forces struck Iran’s state broadcaster two days ago. 100 million shekel pledged by Israeli regime to build 1000 new bomb shelters in some areas; the regime is known for under-investment in Palestinian neighbourhoods.

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More checkpoints and barriers installed across the West Bank. Ambulance movement continues to be disrupted by gas shortages in Bethlehem. Despite the war, Israeli occupation forces continue extensive home demolitions in Nour Shams refugee camp in the northern West Bank. Settlers crush and uproot Palestinian olive trees near Sinjil, north of Ramallah. Occupation bulldozers dug up roads south of Jenin. Palestinian residents were shot at by settlers while trying to extinguish fires west of Bethlehem.

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Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza continues, with minimal political intervention to prevent it.

Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Military expert warns against U.S. involvement in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/military-expert-warns-against-u-s-involvement-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/military-expert-warns-against-u-s-involvement-in-iran/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 16:07:39 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=cc6d0666076f328984246d911ffaa6a8
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Why Washington Targets Iran and Venezuela https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/why-washington-targets-iran-and-venezuela/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/why-washington-targets-iran-and-venezuela/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 15:00:14 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159239 Venezuela and Iran hold the largest and third-largest petroleum reserves in the world, respectively. Both have also been targeted for regime change by Washington. The two commonalities are not unrelated. Of course, the world’s hegemon would like to get its hands on all their oil. But it would be simplistic to think that would be […]

The post Why Washington Targets Iran and Venezuela first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
Venezuela and Iran hold the largest and third-largest petroleum reserves in the world, respectively. Both have also been targeted for regime change by Washington. The two commonalities are not unrelated.

Of course, the world’s hegemon would like to get its hands on all their oil. But it would be simplistic to think that would be only for narrow economic reasons. Control over energy flows – especially from countries with large reserves – is central to maintaining global influence. Washington requires control of strategic resources to maintain its position as the global hegemon, guided by its official policy of “full spectrum dominance.”

For Venezuela and Iran, sovereign control of vast hydrocarbon assets is a precondition for exercising a modest level of independence and even some regional and global influence in a geopolitical landscape dominated by the US and its allies.  But their drive for self-determination is animated by a third and essential shared characteristic. That is, the political one; both are led by revolutionary administrations.

The Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela and the Islamic Revolution in Iran were both of necessity anti-imperialist. And it for this political reason, even more than the economic, both have earned Washington’s hostility. Conversely, the Iran-Venezuela political relationship is rooted in mutual support against US aggression and a commitment to sovereignty and non-interference.

Venezuela-Iran relations

 Venezuela has been at the forefront of Iran’s engagement in Latin America. The two nations were founding members of the OPEC alliance of oil-producing countries in 1960.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez made his first visit to Iran in 2001. Since then the two countries have forged close relations, especially regarding energy production, industrial cooperation, and economic development. Chávez awarded visiting Iranian President Mohammad Khatami with the Order of the Liberator, praising him as an anti-imperialist. Venezuela and Iran “are firm in the face of any aggression,” said Chávez.

With Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s election as Iran’s president in 2005, he and Chavez visited each other multiple times forming a self-described “axis of unity” against US imperialism. Hundreds of bilateral agreements were executed between the two oil-producing states. Chavez supported Iran’s nuclear program, pledging in 2006 to “stay by Iran at any time and under any condition,”

In a prescient address at Tehran University, Chávez admonished: “If the US empire succeeds in consolidating its dominance, then humankind has no future. Therefore, we have to save humankind and put an end to the US empire.” With the passing of Chávez and the election of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela-Iran relations continued to consolidate.

In 2015, US President Barack Obama declared Venezuela an “extraordinary threat” to US national security as an excuse to impose unilateral coercive measures on Caracas. By 2017, US President Donald Trump intensified the hybrid war against Venezuela with a “maximum pressure” campaign.

Amid crippling US sanctions, Iran dispatched multiple tanker shipments in 2020 to help stabilize Venezuela’s fuel supply. Iran, along with China, also sent technicians to help repair refineries. It is no exaggeration to say that Iran’s assistance was been a lifeline for Venezuela.

Joint projects have included ammunition plants, auto assembly (Venirauto), a cement factory, the Venirán Tractor Factory, and refinery upgrades. An Iranian supermarket chain even opened stores in Venezuela.

Then Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi signed a 20-year cooperative agreement with Venezuela in 2020. Besides tourism, food production, and opening airplane routes, the agreement addressed mutual defense, including the continued transfer of drone-making technology. Raisi complemented Caracas for “exemplary resistance against sanctions and threats from enemies and imperialists.”

In 2022, agreements were signed to restore Venezuela’s El Palito refinery and explore nanotech collaboration. This year, the two countries established a fiber optic factory. Plus, there have been extensive cultural and educational exchanges.

In Washington’s crosshairs

 The refusal of Venezuela and Iran to align with the US geopolitical agenda is a key factor in Washington’s coercive strategy. It reflects the hegemon’s broader pattern of targeting resource-rich, independent states that resist integration into its “world order.”

 Both countries have rejected Western dominance and have nationalized their considerable oil sectors. Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh established NIOC in Iran in 1951, precipitating the CIA/M16 coup that disposed him. Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez established PDVSA in 1976, later expanded and reoriented by President Chávez after 2002.

Current US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela reduce their ability of to sell oil freely. This limits alternative energy markets that could compete with US-aligned suppliers such as the Gulf states. It also reduces petrodollar diversification. Both countries have tried to trade oil outside the dollar system, including via a system of barter with allies.

Moreover, Venezuela and Iran have been targeted for their non-aligned foreign policy. Central has been Iran’s pivotal position in the resistance to Zionism. Iran supports Hezbollah, the former government in Syria, Ansar Allah (Houthis), and above all the Palestinian struggle. Likewise, Venezuela has been among the foremost supporters in Latin America of the Palestinian’s right to self-determination, having severed relations with Israel in 2009. Caracas has also opposed US-backed regional blocs and supports socialist and anti-neoliberal movements (e.g., ALBA, ties with Cuba and Nicaragua).

Confronted by aggressive hostility by the US and its allies, both Iran and Venezuela have pivoted toward China, Russia, and the BRICS+ coalition as alternatives. Sanctions from the US and its partners have accelerated the creation of alternative financial, logistical, and diplomatic systems that bypass Washington’s control (e.g., INSTEX, barter, crypto, regional banks).

In a recent interview, Iranian diplomat Ali Faramarzi affirmed that Venezuela and Iran are bound by profound affinities. They have significantly deepened what TeleSUR calls their “symbiotic” relationship, forging an alliance that spans political solidarity, economic cooperation, military collaboration, and shared ideological stances. Both nations, facing intense pressure and sanctions from the US, have found common cause in resisting Western hegemony and promoting a multipolar world order.

Regime change in Iran could have major negative consequences for Venezuela. Reestablishment of a US client-state, as it was under the Shah of Iran, would mean the loss of diplomatic support for Caracas, the probable end to energy cooperation, greater defense vulnerabilities, and cascading adverse economic and trade repercussions.

The post Why Washington Targets Iran and Venezuela first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Roger D. Harris.

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Another Iraq? Military Expert Warns U.S. Has No Real Plan If It joins Israel’s War on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/another-iraq-military-expert-warns-u-s-has-no-real-plan-if-it-joins-israels-war-on-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/another-iraq-military-expert-warns-u-s-has-no-real-plan-if-it-joins-israels-war-on-iran-2/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 14:57:12 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2840380fb765aaa5d92da8c1a4f98a3b
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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NY Times and Roger Cohen Promote War Again https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/ny-times-and-roger-cohen-promote-war-again/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/ny-times-and-roger-cohen-promote-war-again/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 14:30:07 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159245 The NY Times has been a major promoter of US “regime change” operations for decades. Today, while President Trump considers directly involving a US attack on Iran, the NYT is again performing this role despite many readers being skeptical or opposed. A June 19 NYT news/analysis is titled “An Islamic Republic With Its Back Against […]

The post NY Times and Roger Cohen Promote War Again first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
The NY Times has been a major promoter of US “regime change” operations for decades. Today, while President Trump considers directly involving a US attack on Iran, the NYT is again performing this role despite many readers being skeptical or opposed.

A June 19 NYT news/analysis is titled “An Islamic Republic With Its Back Against the Wall” by Roger Cohen. It seems written to pave the way for yet another US backed or directed “regime change”. The first sentence asserts without providing evidence that the Tehran government is “an umpopular and repressive regime”. An “Iran expert” is quoted saying, “The Islamic Republic is a rotten tooth waiting to be plucked, like the Soviet Union in its latter years.”

When Israel bombed the Iranian TV broadcast station as a female news anchor was reading the news, Cohen writes that “Some Iranians were overjoyed”. Cohen uses Netanyahu’s description that Israel’s attacks on Iran are “pre-emptive” and designed to “stop Iran usings its enriched uranium to race for a bomb.” He does not mention that even the US intelligence agencies agree that Iran does NOT have a nuclear weapon program.

Cohen goes on to quote former Blackrock executive and now German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz: “This mullah regime has brought death and destruction to the world.” Iran has invaded no countries while the US has invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria while Israel has attacked Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and now Iran.

After suggesting some causes for caution, Cohen closes with his core message: the Tehran government may fall like the Berlin Wall. He quotes the “Iran expert” again: “The Islamic Republic is a zombie regime.”

A Persistent War Promoter

Roger Cohen has been an influential participant in NYT distortions and lies. In 2002, he became NYT foreign editor during the crucial run up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. As stated at his Wikipedia page, “He supported the invasion.” The deceit about the non-existent “weapons of mass destruction” was under Cohen’s direction.

In early March, 2011, Roger Cohen he was against Western intervention in Libya. Two weeks later, he urged the West to be “ruthless” and to kill the Libyan leader. This has turned out to be yet another disaster. The Libyan people are still paying the price while Roger Cohen has forgotten about it.

Roger Cohen, representative of the Times, consistently finds a few voices of opposition, claims without evidence they represent a large group or the civilian majority, then promotes intervention, violence and “regime change”. He did this with Iraq, then Libya, now Iran.

Many NY Times Readers are Critical

Judging from the most popular reader comments, many NYT readers are critical of this “news analysis”. The most popular comment has 1600 endorsements. Dr. Finn Majlergaard from France says, “What right do you (Americans) think you have to decide who should be in power in sovereign countries when you can’t even deal with your own domestic dictator and the US regime’s gestapo methods against foreigners?”

The second most popular comment is from Florence Massachusetts. The reader asks, “Will it be okay if a truly democratic nation bombs the United States in order to encourage regime change away from our current authoritarian rulers?”

The vast majority of reader comments are critical of the drive to attack and possibly overthrow yet another government. Apparently they have learned from past foreign policy failures while the NY Times and foreign policy establishment have not. Another disaster based on false assumptions and arrogance lays ahead.

The post
NY Times and Roger Cohen Promote War Again first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Rick Sterling.

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Another Iraq? Military Expert Warns U.S. Has No Real Plan If It joins Israel’s War on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/another-iraq-military-expert-warns-u-s-has-no-real-plan-if-it-joins-israels-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/another-iraq-military-expert-warns-u-s-has-no-real-plan-if-it-joins-israels-war-on-iran/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 12:13:43 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=72187861064d029cfa4a86361bd59aa9 Seg1 iran

As Israeli warplanes continue to pummel Tehran and other parts of the country, President Trump has given mixed messages on whether the U.S. will join Israel’s war on Iran. Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt delivered a message on Thursday that Trump will decide on direct U.S. involvement in the next two weeks. Leavitt delivered the message shortly after Trump met with his former advisor Steve Bannon who has publicly warned against war with Iran. The U.S. is reportedly considering dropping “bunker buster” bombs on underground Iranian nuclear facilities. “It’s reminiscent of the beginning of the Iraq War, when they said it’s going to be a cakewalk,” says William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

A U.S.-based Iranian human rights group reports that the Israeli attacks have killed at least 639 people in Iran, while Iran’s retaliatory strikes in Israel have killed an estimated two dozen.


This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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What’s Israel’s Endgame In Iran? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/whats-israels-endgame-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/whats-israels-endgame-in-iran/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 09:10:11 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=3b50482448d21729b0a1ae568b4fb33c
This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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Israel’s Attack on Iran: The Violent New World is Going to Horrify You https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/israels-attack-on-iran-the-violent-new-world-is-going-to-horrify-you/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/israels-attack-on-iran-the-violent-new-world-is-going-to-horrify-you/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 08:46:13 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159233 Western politicians and media are tying themselves up in knots trying to spin the impossible: presenting Israel’s unmistakable war of aggression against Iran as some kind of “defensive” move. This time there was no rationalising pretext, as there was for Israel to inflict a genocide in Gaza following Hamas’ one-day attack on 7 October 2023. […]

The post Israel’s Attack on Iran: The Violent New World is Going to Horrify You first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

Western politicians and media are tying themselves up in knots trying to spin the impossible: presenting Israel’s unmistakable war of aggression against Iran as some kind of “defensive” move.

This time there was no rationalising pretext, as there was for Israel to inflict a genocide in Gaza following Hamas’ one-day attack on 7 October 2023.

There was not a serious attempt beforehand to concoct a bogus doomsday scenario – as there was in the months leading up to the US and UK’s illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003. Then we were lied to about Baghdad having “weapons of mass destruction” that could be launched at Europe in 45 minutes.

Rather, Iran was deep in negotiations with the United States on its nuclear enrichment programme when Israel launched its unprovoked attack last Friday.

The West has happily regurgitated claims by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel was forced to act because Iran was on the cusp of producing a nuclear bomb – an entirely evidence-free claim he has been making since 1992.

None of his dire warnings has ever been borne out by events.

In fact, Israel struck Iran shortly after President Donald Trump had expressed hope of reaching a nuclear agreement with Tehran, and two days before the two countries’ negotiators were due to meet again.

In late March Trump’s head of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, had expressly statedas part of the US intelligence community’s annual assessment: “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ali] Khameini has not authorised a nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003.”

This week four sources said to be familiar with that assessment told CNN that Iran was not trying to build a bomb but, if it changed tack, it would be “up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one [a nuclear warhead] to a target of its choosing”.

Nonetheless, by Tuesday this week Trump appeared to be readying to join Israel’s attack. He publicly rebuked his own intelligence chief’s verdict, sent US warplanes to the Middle East via the UK and Spain, demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, and made barely veiled threats to kill Khameini.

‘Samson option’

Israel’s engineering of a pretext to attack Iran – defined by the Nuremberg tribunal in 1945 as the “supreme international crime” – has been many years in the making.

The current talks between the US and Iran were only needed because, under intense Israeli pressure during his first term as president, Trump tore up an existing agreement with Tehran.

That deal, negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, had been intended to quieten Israel’s relentless calls for a strike on Iran. It tightly limited Tehran’s enrichment of uranium to far below the level where it could “break out” from its civilian energy programme to build a bomb.

Israel, by contrast, has been allowed to maintain a nuclear arsenal of at least 100 warheads, while refusing – unlike Iran – to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and – again unlike Iran – denying access to monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The West’s collusion in the pretence that Israel’s nuclear weapons are secret – a policy formally known in Israel as “ambiguity” – has been necessary only because the US is not allowed to provide military aid to a state with undeclared nuclear weapons.

Israel is by far the largest recipient of such aid.

No one – apart from incorrigible racists – believes Iran would take the suicidal step of firing a nuclear missile at Israel, even if it had one. That is not the real grounds for Israeli or US concern.

Rather, the double standards are enforced to keep Israel as the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East so that it can project unrestrained military power across an oil-rich region the West is determined to control.

Israel’s bomb has left it untouchable and unaccountable, and ready to intimidate its neighbours with the “Samson option” – the threat that Israel will use its nuclear arsenal rather than risk an existential threat.

Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, appeared to imply just such a scenario against Iran this week in a reported comment: “There will be other difficult days ahead, but always remember Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

Bear in mind that Israeli governments count as “existential” any threat to Israel’s current status as a settler-colonial state, one occupying and forcibly uprooting the Palestinian people from their homeland.

Israel’s nuclear weapons ensure it can do as it pleases in the region – including commit genocide in Gaza – without significant fear of reprisals.

War propaganda

The claim that Israel is “defending itself” in attacking Iran – promoted by France, Germany, Britain, the European Union, the G7 and the US – should be understood as a further assault on the foundational principles of international law.

The assertion is premised on the idea that Israel’s attack was “pre-emptive” – potentially justified if Israel could show there was an imminent, credible and severe threat of an attack or invasion by Iran that could not be averted by other means.

And yet, even assuming there is evidence to support Israel’s claim it was in imminent danger – there isn’t – the very fact that Iran was in the midst of talks with the US about its nuclear programme voided that justification.

Rather, Israel’s contention that Iran posed a threat at some point in the future that needed to be neutralised counts as a “preventive” war – and is indisputably illegal under international law.

Note the striking contrast with the West’s reaction to Russia’s so-called “unprovoked” attack on Ukraine just three years ago.

Western capitals and their media were only too clear then that Moscow’s actions were unconscionable – and that severe economic sanctions on Russia, and military support for Ukraine, were the only possible responses.

So much so that early efforts to negotiate a ceasefire deal between Moscow and Kyiv, premised on a Russian withdrawal, were stymied by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, presumably on Washington’s orders. Ukraine was instructed to fight on.

Israel’s attack on Iran is even more flagrantly in violation of international law.

Netanyahu, who is already a fugitive from the International Criminal Court, which wants to try him for committing crimes against humanity in Gaza by starving the population there, is now guilty of the “supreme international crime” too.

Not that one would not know any of this from listening to western politicians or the billionaire-owned media.

There, the narrative is once again of a plucky Israel, forced to act unilaterally; of Israel facing down an existential threat; of Israel being menaced by barbaric terrorists; of the unique suffering – and humanity – of Israel’s population; of Netanyahu as a strong leader rather than an out-and-out war criminal.

It is the same, well-worn script, trotted out on every occasion, whatever the facts or circumstances. Which is clue enough that western audiences are not being informed; they are being subjected to yet more war propaganda.

Regime change

But Israel’s pretexts for its war of aggression are a moving target – hard to grapple with because they keep changing.

If Netanyahu started by touting an implausible claim that Iran’s nuclear programme was an imminent threat, he soon shifted to arguing that Israel’s war of aggression was also justified to remove a supposed threat from Iran’s ballistic missile programme.

In the ultimate example of chutzpah, Israel cited as its evidence the fact that it was being hit by Iranian missiles – missiles fired by Tehran in direct response to Israel’s rain of missiles on Iran.

Israel’s protestations at the rising death toll among Israeli civilians overlooked two inconvenient facts that should have underscored Israel’s hypocrisy, were the western media not working so hard to obscure it.

First, Israel has turned its own civilian population into human shields by placing key military installations – such as its spy agency and its defence ministry – in the centre of densely populated Tel Aviv, as well as firing its interception rockets from inside the city.

Recall that Israel has blamed Hamas for the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza over the past 20 months based on the largely unevidenced claim that its fighters have been hiding among the population. Now that same argument can, and should, be turned against Israel.

And second, Israel is all too obviously itself hitting residential areas in Iran – just as, of course, it did earlier by destroying almost all of Gaza’s buildings, including homes, hospitals, schools, universities and bakeries.

Both Netanyahu and Trump have called on Iranians to “evacuate immediately” the city of Tehran – something impossible for most of its 10 million inhabitants to do in the time allowed.

But their demand raises too the question of why, if Israel is trying to stop the development of an Iranian nuclear warhead, it is focusing so many of its attacks on residential areas of Iran’s capital.

More generally, Israel’s argument that Tehran must be stripped of its ballistic missiles assumes that only Israel – and those allied with it – are allowed any kind of military deterrence capability.

It seems not only is Iran not allowed a nuclear arsenal as a counter-weight to Israel’s nukes, but it is not even allowed to strike back when Israel decides to launch its US-supplied missiles at Tehran.

What Israel is effectively demanding is that Iran be turned into a larger equivalent of the Palestinian Authority – a compliant, lightly armed regime completely under Israel’s thumb.

Which gets to the heart of what Israel’s current attack on Iran is really designed to achieve.

It is about instituting regime change in Tehran.

Trained in torture

Again, the western media are assisting with this new narrative.

Extraordinarily, TV politics shows such as the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg invited on as a guest Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Iranian shah ousted by the ayatollahs in 1979 to create an Islamic republic. He used the slot to call on Iranians to “rise up” against their leaders.

The framing – an entirely Israeli confected one – is that Iranian society is desperate to throw off the yoke of Islamic dictatorship and return to the halcyon days of monarchical rule under the Pahlavis.

It is a beyond-absurd analysis of modern Iran.

Asking Pahlavi to discuss how Iran might be freed from clerical rule is the equivalent of inviting Josef Stalin’s grandson into the studio to discuss how he plans to lead a pro-democracy movement in Russia.

In fact, the much-feared Pahlavis were only in power in 1979 – and in a position to be overthrown – because Israel, Britain and the US meddled deeply in Iran to keep them in place for so long.

When Iranians elected the secular reformist Mohammed Mossadegh, a lawyer and intellectual, as prime minister in 1951, Britain and the US worked tirelessly to topple him. His chief crime was that he took back control of Iran’s oil industry – and its profits – from the UK.

Within two years, Mossadegh was overthrown in US-led Operation Ajax, and the Shah re-installed as dictator. Israel was drafted in to train Iran’s Savak secret police in torture techniques to use on Iranian dissidents, learnt from torturing Palestinians.

Predictably, the West’s crushing of all efforts to democratically reform Iran opened up a space for resistance to the Shah that was quickly occupied by Islamist parties instead.

In 1979, these revolutionary forces overthrew the western-backed dictator Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile in Paris to found the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Crescent of resistance

Notably Khomeini’s successor as supreme leader, Ali Khameini, issued a religious edict in 2003 banning Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. He considered it a violation of Islamic law.

Which is why Iran has been so reluctant to develop a bomb, despite Israel’s endless provocations and claims to the contrary.

What Iran has done instead is two things that are the real trigger for Israel’s war of aggression.

First, it developed the best alternative military strategy it could muster to protect itself from Israeli and western belligerence – a belligerence related to Iran’s refusal to serve as a client of the West, as the Shah once had, rather than the issue of human rights under clerical rule.

Iran’s leaders understood they were a target. Iran has huge reserves of oil and gas, but unlike the neighbouring Gulf regimes it is not a puppet of the West. It can also shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the main gateway for the flow of oil and gas to the West and Asia.

And as a Shia-led state (in contrast to the Sunni Islam that dominates much of the rest of the Middle East), Iran has a series of co-religionist communities across the region – in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere – with which it has developed strong ties.

For example, with Iran’s help, Hezbollah in Lebanon built up a large stockpile of rockets and missiles close to Israel’s border. That was supposed to deter Israel from trying to attack and occupy Lebanon again, as it did for two decades from the early 1980s through to 2000.

But it also meant that any longer-range attack by Israel on Iran would prove risky, exposing it to a barrage of missiles on its northern border.

Ideologues in Washington, known as the neoconservatives, who are keenly supportive of Israeli hegemony in the Middle East, deeply opposed what came to be seen as “the axis of resistance”.

The neocons, seeking a way to crush Iran, quickly exploited the 9-11 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York in 2001 as an opportunity to erode Iranian power.

General Wesley Clark was told at the Pentagon in the days after the attack that the US had come up with a plan to “take out seven countries in five years”.

Notably, even though most of the hijackers who crashed planes into the Twin Towers were from Saudi Arabia, the Pentagon’s list of targets centrally featured members of the so-called “Shia crescent”.

All have been attacked since. As Clark noted, the seventh and final state on that list – the hardest to take on – is Iran.

Show of strength

Israel’s other concern was that Iran and its allies, unlike the Arab regimes, had proved steadfast in their support for the Palestinian people against decades of Israeli occupation and oppression.

Iran’s defiance on the Palestinian cause was underscored during Trump’s first presidency, when Arab states began actively normalising with Israel through the US-brokered Abraham accords, even as the plight of the Palestinians worsened under Israeli rule.

Infuriatingly for Israel, Iran and the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasarallah became the main flagbearers of popular support for the Palestinians – among Muslims across the board.

With the Palestinian Authority largely quiescent by the mid-2000s, Iran channelled its assistance to Hamas in besieged Gaza, the main Palestinian group still ready to struggle against Israeli apartheid rule and ethnic cleansing.

The result was a tense stability of sorts, with each side restraining itself in a Middle Eastern version of “mutually assured destruction”. Neither side had an incentive to risk an all-out attack for fear of the severe consequences.

That model came to an abrupt end on 7 October 2023, when Hamas decided its previous calculations needed reassessing.

With the Palestinians feeling increasingly isolated, choked by Israel’s siege and abandoned by the Arab regimes, Hamas staged a show of force, breaking out for one day from the concentration camp of Gaza.

Israel seized the opportunity to complete two related tasks: destroying the Palestinians as a people once and for all, and with it their ambitions for a state in their homeland; and rolling back the Shia crescent, just as the Pentagon had planned more than 20 years earlier.

Israel started by levelling Gaza – slaughtering and starving its people. Then it moved to destroy Hezbollah’s southern heartlands in Lebanon. And with the collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, Israel was able to occupy parts of Syria, smash what remained of its military infastructure, and clear a flight path to Iran.

These were the preconditions for launching the current war of aggression on Iran.

‘Birth pangs’

Back in 2006, as Israel was bombing swaths of Lebanon in an earlier attempt to realise the Pentagon’s plan, Condoleezza Rice, the then US secretary of state, prematurely labelled Israel’s violence as the “birth pangs of a new Middle East”.What we have been witnessing over the past 20 months of Israel’s slow rampage towards Iran is precisely a revival of those birth pangs. Israel and the US are jointly remaking the Middle East through extreme violence and the eradication of international law.

Success for Israel can come in one of two ways.

Either it installs a new authoritarian ruler in Tehran, like the Shah’s son, who will do the bidding of Israel and the US. Or Israel leaves the country so wrecked that it devolves into violent factionalism, too taken up with civil war to expend its limited energies on developing a nuclear bomb or organising a “Shia crescent” of resistance.

But ultimately this is about more than redrawing the map of the Middle East. And it is about more than toppling the rulers in Tehran.

Just as Israel needed to take out Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria before it could consider clearing a path to Iran’s destruction, the US and its western allies needs the axis of resistance eradicated, as well as Russia bogged down in an interminable war in Ukraine, before it can consider taking on China.

Or as the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted this week, in one of those quiet-part-out-loud moments: “This [the attack on Iran] is the dirty work Israel is doing for all of us.”

This is a key moment in the Pentagon’s 20-year plan for “global full-spectrum dominance”: a unipolar world in which the US is unconstrained by military rivals or the imposition of international law. A world in which a tiny, unaccountable elite, enriched by wars, dictate terms to the rest of us.

If all this sounds like a sociopath’s approach to foreign relations, that is because it is. Years of impunity for Israel and the US have brought us to this point. Both feel entitled to destroy what remains of an international order that does not let them get precisely what they want.

The current birth pangs will grow. If you believe in human rights, in limits on the power of government, in the use of diplomacy before military aggression, in the freedoms you grew up with, the new world being born is going to horrify you.

  • First published at Middle East Eye.
The post Israel’s Attack on Iran: The Violent New World is Going to Horrify You first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Jonathan Cook.

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Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/eugene-doyle-how-centrifugal-forces-have-been-unleashed-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/eugene-doyle-how-centrifugal-forces-have-been-unleashed-in-iran/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:20:39 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116411 COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic.

Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling mid-air refuelling, bombs and an array of intelligence.

If successful they will destroy or, more likely, destabilise the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz and possibly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, causing them to vibrate and spin uncontrollably, generating centrifugal forces that could rupture containment systems.

  • READ MORE: Israel, Iran trade missile fire as Iran’s FM to meet European counterparts
  • More Middle East conflict reports

Spinning at more than 50,000 rpm it wouldn’t take much of a shockwave from a blast or some other act of sabotage to do this.

There may be about half a tonne of enriched uranium and several tonnes of lower-grade material underground.

If a cascade of bunker-busting bombs like the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators got through, the heat generated would be in the hundreds, even thousands, of degrees Celsius. This would destroy the centrifuges, converting the uranium hexafluoride gas into a toxic aerosol, leading to serious radiological contamination over a wide area.

The head of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, warned repeatedly of the dangers over the past few days. How many people would be killed, contaminated or forced to evacuate should not have to be calculated — it should be avoided at all cost.

Divided opinions
Some people think this attack is a very good idea; some think this is an act of madness by two rogue states.

On June 18, Israeli media were reporting that the US had rushed an aerial armada loaded with bunker busters to Israel while the US continued its sham denials of involvement in the war.

Analysts Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares warned this week of “Israel bringing the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon in pursuit of its illegal and extremist aims”.  They point out that for some decades now Netanyahu has warned that Iran is weeks or even days away from having the bomb, begging successive presidents for permission to wage Judeo-Christian jihad.

In Donald Trump — the MAGA Peace Candidate — he finally got his green light.

The centrifugal forces destabilising the Iranian state
The other — and possibly more significant — centrifugal force that has been unleashed is a hybrid attack on the Iranian state itself.  The Americans, Israelis and their European allies hope to trigger regime change.

There are many Iranians inside and outside the country who would welcome such a development.  Other Iranians suggest they should be careful of what they wish for, pointing to the human misery that follows, as night follows day, wherever post 9/11 America’s project to bring “democracy, goodness and niceness” leads.  If you can’t quickly think of half a dozen examples, this must be your first visit to Planet Earth.

. . . ABut after a brief interruption on screen as debris fell from a bomb strike, Sahar Emami was back presenting the news
Iranian news presenter Sahar Emami during the Israeli attack on state television which killed three media workers . . . Killing journalists is both an Israeli speciality and a war crime. Image: AJ screenshot APR

Is regime change in Iran possible?
So, are the Americans and Israelis on to something or not? This week prominent anti-regime writer Sohrab Ahmari added a caveat to his long-standing call for an end to the regime.  Ahmari, an Iranian, who is the US editor of the geopolitical analysis platform UnHerd said:  “The potential nightmare scenarios are as numerous as they are appalling: regime collapse that leads not to the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty and the ascent to the Peacock Throne of its chubby dauphin, Reza, but warlordism and ethno-sectarian warfare that drives millions of refugees into Europe.

“Or a Chinese intervention in favour of a crucial energy partner and anchor of the new Eurasian bloc led by Beijing . . .  A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Persian Gulf monarchies.”

Despite these risks, there are indeed Iranians who are cheering for Uncle Bibi (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu).  Some have little sympathy for the Palestinians because their government poured millions into supporting Hamas and Hezbollah — money that could have eased hardship inside Iran, caused, it must be added, by both the US-imposed sanctions and the regime’s own mismanagement, some say corruption.

As I pointed out in an article The West’s War on Iran shortly after the Israelis launched the war: the regime appears to have a core support base of around 20 percent.  This was true in 2018 when I last visited Iran and was still the case in the most recent polling I could find.

I quoted an Iranian contact who shortly after the attack told me they had scanned reactions inside Iran and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government at this critical moment.  Like many, I suggested Iranians would — as typically happens when countries are attacked — rally round the flag.  Shortly after the article was published this statement was challenged by other Iranians who dispute that there will be any “rallying to the flag” — as that is the flag of the Islamic Republic and a great many Iranians are sick to the back teeth of it.

Some others demur:

“The killing of at least 224 Iranians has once again significantly damaged Israel’s claim that it avoids targeting civilians,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, author of Women and the Islamic Republic, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, told The New Arab on June 16.  “Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic.”

To be honest, I can’t discern who is correct. In the last few of days I have also had contact with people inside Iran (all these contacts must, for obvious reasons, be anonymous).  One of them welcomed the attack on the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps).  I also got this message relayed to me from someone else in Iran as a response to my article:

“Some Iranians are pro-regime and have condemned Israeli attacks and want the government to respond strongly. Some Iranians are pro-Israel and happy that Israel has attacked and killed some of their murderers and want regime change, [but the] majority of Iranians dislike both sides.

They dislike the regime in Iran, and they are patriotic so they don’t want a foreign country like Israel invading them and killing people. They feel hopeless and defenceless as they know both sides have failed or will fail them.”

Calculating the incalculable: regime survival or collapse?
Only a little over half of Iran is Persian. Minorities include Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, Turkmen, Armenians and one of the region’s few post-Nakba Jewish congregations outside of Israel today.

Mossad, MI6 and various branches of the US state have poured billions into opposition groups, including various monarchist factions, but from a distance they appear fragmented. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) armed opposition group has been an irritant but so far not a major disruptor.

The most effective terrorist attacks inside Iran have been launched by Israel, the US and the British — including the assassination of a string of Iranian peace negotiators, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, nuclear scientists and their families, and various regime figures.

How numerous the active strands of anti-regime elements are is hard to estimate. Equally hard to calculate is how many will move into open confrontation with the regime. Conversely, how unified, durable — or brittle — is the regime? How cohesive is the leadership of the IRGC and the Basij militias? Will they work effectively together in the trying times ahead? In particular, how successful has the CIA, MI6 and Mossad been at penetrating their structures and buying generals?

Both Iran’s nuclear programme and its government — in fact, the whole edifice and foundation of the Islamic Republic — is at the beginning of the greatest stress test of its existence.  If the centrifugal forces prove too great, I can’t help but think of the words of William Butler Yeats:

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

Are full of passionate intensity.

Peace and prosperity to all the people of Iran.  And let’s never forget the people of Palestine as they endure genocide.

Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/eugene-doyle-how-centrifugal-forces-have-been-unleashed-in-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/eugene-doyle-how-centrifugal-forces-have-been-unleashed-in-iran-2/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:20:39 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116411 COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic.

Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling mid-air refuelling, bombs and an array of intelligence.

If successful they will destroy or, more likely, destabilise the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz and possibly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, causing them to vibrate and spin uncontrollably, generating centrifugal forces that could rupture containment systems.

  • READ MORE: Israel, Iran trade missile fire as Iran’s FM to meet European counterparts
  • More Middle East conflict reports

Spinning at more than 50,000 rpm it wouldn’t take much of a shockwave from a blast or some other act of sabotage to do this.

There may be about half a tonne of enriched uranium and several tonnes of lower-grade material underground.

If a cascade of bunker-busting bombs like the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators got through, the heat generated would be in the hundreds, even thousands, of degrees Celsius. This would destroy the centrifuges, converting the uranium hexafluoride gas into a toxic aerosol, leading to serious radiological contamination over a wide area.

The head of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, warned repeatedly of the dangers over the past few days. How many people would be killed, contaminated or forced to evacuate should not have to be calculated — it should be avoided at all cost.

Divided opinions
Some people think this attack is a very good idea; some think this is an act of madness by two rogue states.

On June 18, Israeli media were reporting that the US had rushed an aerial armada loaded with bunker busters to Israel while the US continued its sham denials of involvement in the war.

Analysts Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares warned this week of “Israel bringing the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon in pursuit of its illegal and extremist aims”.  They point out that for some decades now Netanyahu has warned that Iran is weeks or even days away from having the bomb, begging successive presidents for permission to wage Judeo-Christian jihad.

In Donald Trump — the MAGA Peace Candidate — he finally got his green light.

The centrifugal forces destabilising the Iranian state
The other — and possibly more significant — centrifugal force that has been unleashed is a hybrid attack on the Iranian state itself.  The Americans, Israelis and their European allies hope to trigger regime change.

There are many Iranians inside and outside the country who would welcome such a development.  Other Iranians suggest they should be careful of what they wish for, pointing to the human misery that follows, as night follows day, wherever post 9/11 America’s project to bring “democracy, goodness and niceness” leads.  If you can’t quickly think of half a dozen examples, this must be your first visit to Planet Earth.

. . . ABut after a brief interruption on screen as debris fell from a bomb strike, Sahar Emami was back presenting the news
Iranian news presenter Sahar Emami during the Israeli attack on state television which killed three media workers . . . Killing journalists is both an Israeli speciality and a war crime. Image: AJ screenshot APR

Is regime change in Iran possible?
So, are the Americans and Israelis on to something or not? This week prominent anti-regime writer Sohrab Ahmari added a caveat to his long-standing call for an end to the regime.  Ahmari, an Iranian, who is the US editor of the geopolitical analysis platform UnHerd said:  “The potential nightmare scenarios are as numerous as they are appalling: regime collapse that leads not to the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty and the ascent to the Peacock Throne of its chubby dauphin, Reza, but warlordism and ethno-sectarian warfare that drives millions of refugees into Europe.

“Or a Chinese intervention in favour of a crucial energy partner and anchor of the new Eurasian bloc led by Beijing . . .  A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Persian Gulf monarchies.”

Despite these risks, there are indeed Iranians who are cheering for Uncle Bibi (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu).  Some have little sympathy for the Palestinians because their government poured millions into supporting Hamas and Hezbollah — money that could have eased hardship inside Iran, caused, it must be added, by both the US-imposed sanctions and the regime’s own mismanagement, some say corruption.

As I pointed out in an article The West’s War on Iran shortly after the Israelis launched the war: the regime appears to have a core support base of around 20 percent.  This was true in 2018 when I last visited Iran and was still the case in the most recent polling I could find.

I quoted an Iranian contact who shortly after the attack told me they had scanned reactions inside Iran and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government at this critical moment.  Like many, I suggested Iranians would — as typically happens when countries are attacked — rally round the flag.  Shortly after the article was published this statement was challenged by other Iranians who dispute that there will be any “rallying to the flag” — as that is the flag of the Islamic Republic and a great many Iranians are sick to the back teeth of it.

Some others demur:

“The killing of at least 224 Iranians has once again significantly damaged Israel’s claim that it avoids targeting civilians,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, author of Women and the Islamic Republic, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, told The New Arab on June 16.  “Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic.”

To be honest, I can’t discern who is correct. In the last few of days I have also had contact with people inside Iran (all these contacts must, for obvious reasons, be anonymous).  One of them welcomed the attack on the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps).  I also got this message relayed to me from someone else in Iran as a response to my article:

“Some Iranians are pro-regime and have condemned Israeli attacks and want the government to respond strongly. Some Iranians are pro-Israel and happy that Israel has attacked and killed some of their murderers and want regime change, [but the] majority of Iranians dislike both sides.

They dislike the regime in Iran, and they are patriotic so they don’t want a foreign country like Israel invading them and killing people. They feel hopeless and defenceless as they know both sides have failed or will fail them.”

Calculating the incalculable: regime survival or collapse?
Only a little over half of Iran is Persian. Minorities include Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, Turkmen, Armenians and one of the region’s few post-Nakba Jewish congregations outside of Israel today.

Mossad, MI6 and various branches of the US state have poured billions into opposition groups, including various monarchist factions, but from a distance they appear fragmented. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) armed opposition group has been an irritant but so far not a major disruptor.

The most effective terrorist attacks inside Iran have been launched by Israel, the US and the British — including the assassination of a string of Iranian peace negotiators, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, nuclear scientists and their families, and various regime figures.

How numerous the active strands of anti-regime elements are is hard to estimate. Equally hard to calculate is how many will move into open confrontation with the regime. Conversely, how unified, durable — or brittle — is the regime? How cohesive is the leadership of the IRGC and the Basij militias? Will they work effectively together in the trying times ahead? In particular, how successful has the CIA, MI6 and Mossad been at penetrating their structures and buying generals?

Both Iran’s nuclear programme and its government — in fact, the whole edifice and foundation of the Islamic Republic — is at the beginning of the greatest stress test of its existence.  If the centrifugal forces prove too great, I can’t help but think of the words of William Butler Yeats:

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

Are full of passionate intensity.

Peace and prosperity to all the people of Iran.  And let’s never forget the people of Palestine as they endure genocide.

Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

]]>
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Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/eugene-doyle-how-centrifugal-forces-have-been-unleashed-in-iran-3/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/20/eugene-doyle-how-centrifugal-forces-have-been-unleashed-in-iran-3/#respond Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:20:39 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116411 COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic.

Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling mid-air refuelling, bombs and an array of intelligence.

If successful they will destroy or, more likely, destabilise the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz and possibly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, causing them to vibrate and spin uncontrollably, generating centrifugal forces that could rupture containment systems.

  • READ MORE: Israel, Iran trade missile fire as Iran’s FM to meet European counterparts
  • More Middle East conflict reports

Spinning at more than 50,000 rpm it wouldn’t take much of a shockwave from a blast or some other act of sabotage to do this.

There may be about half a tonne of enriched uranium and several tonnes of lower-grade material underground.

If a cascade of bunker-busting bombs like the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators got through, the heat generated would be in the hundreds, even thousands, of degrees Celsius. This would destroy the centrifuges, converting the uranium hexafluoride gas into a toxic aerosol, leading to serious radiological contamination over a wide area.

The head of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, warned repeatedly of the dangers over the past few days. How many people would be killed, contaminated or forced to evacuate should not have to be calculated — it should be avoided at all cost.

Divided opinions
Some people think this attack is a very good idea; some think this is an act of madness by two rogue states.

On June 18, Israeli media were reporting that the US had rushed an aerial armada loaded with bunker busters to Israel while the US continued its sham denials of involvement in the war.

Analysts Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares warned this week of “Israel bringing the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon in pursuit of its illegal and extremist aims”.  They point out that for some decades now Netanyahu has warned that Iran is weeks or even days away from having the bomb, begging successive presidents for permission to wage Judeo-Christian jihad.

In Donald Trump — the MAGA Peace Candidate — he finally got his green light.

The centrifugal forces destabilising the Iranian state
The other — and possibly more significant — centrifugal force that has been unleashed is a hybrid attack on the Iranian state itself.  The Americans, Israelis and their European allies hope to trigger regime change.

There are many Iranians inside and outside the country who would welcome such a development.  Other Iranians suggest they should be careful of what they wish for, pointing to the human misery that follows, as night follows day, wherever post 9/11 America’s project to bring “democracy, goodness and niceness” leads.  If you can’t quickly think of half a dozen examples, this must be your first visit to Planet Earth.

. . . ABut after a brief interruption on screen as debris fell from a bomb strike, Sahar Emami was back presenting the news
Iranian news presenter Sahar Emami during the Israeli attack on state television which killed three media workers . . . Killing journalists is both an Israeli speciality and a war crime. Image: AJ screenshot APR

Is regime change in Iran possible?
So, are the Americans and Israelis on to something or not? This week prominent anti-regime writer Sohrab Ahmari added a caveat to his long-standing call for an end to the regime.  Ahmari, an Iranian, who is the US editor of the geopolitical analysis platform UnHerd said:  “The potential nightmare scenarios are as numerous as they are appalling: regime collapse that leads not to the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty and the ascent to the Peacock Throne of its chubby dauphin, Reza, but warlordism and ethno-sectarian warfare that drives millions of refugees into Europe.

“Or a Chinese intervention in favour of a crucial energy partner and anchor of the new Eurasian bloc led by Beijing . . .  A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Persian Gulf monarchies.”

Despite these risks, there are indeed Iranians who are cheering for Uncle Bibi (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu).  Some have little sympathy for the Palestinians because their government poured millions into supporting Hamas and Hezbollah — money that could have eased hardship inside Iran, caused, it must be added, by both the US-imposed sanctions and the regime’s own mismanagement, some say corruption.

As I pointed out in an article The West’s War on Iran shortly after the Israelis launched the war: the regime appears to have a core support base of around 20 percent.  This was true in 2018 when I last visited Iran and was still the case in the most recent polling I could find.

I quoted an Iranian contact who shortly after the attack told me they had scanned reactions inside Iran and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government at this critical moment.  Like many, I suggested Iranians would — as typically happens when countries are attacked — rally round the flag.  Shortly after the article was published this statement was challenged by other Iranians who dispute that there will be any “rallying to the flag” — as that is the flag of the Islamic Republic and a great many Iranians are sick to the back teeth of it.

Some others demur:

“The killing of at least 224 Iranians has once again significantly damaged Israel’s claim that it avoids targeting civilians,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, author of Women and the Islamic Republic, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, told The New Arab on June 16.  “Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic.”

To be honest, I can’t discern who is correct. In the last few of days I have also had contact with people inside Iran (all these contacts must, for obvious reasons, be anonymous).  One of them welcomed the attack on the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps).  I also got this message relayed to me from someone else in Iran as a response to my article:

“Some Iranians are pro-regime and have condemned Israeli attacks and want the government to respond strongly. Some Iranians are pro-Israel and happy that Israel has attacked and killed some of their murderers and want regime change, [but the] majority of Iranians dislike both sides.

They dislike the regime in Iran, and they are patriotic so they don’t want a foreign country like Israel invading them and killing people. They feel hopeless and defenceless as they know both sides have failed or will fail them.”

Calculating the incalculable: regime survival or collapse?
Only a little over half of Iran is Persian. Minorities include Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, Turkmen, Armenians and one of the region’s few post-Nakba Jewish congregations outside of Israel today.

Mossad, MI6 and various branches of the US state have poured billions into opposition groups, including various monarchist factions, but from a distance they appear fragmented. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) armed opposition group has been an irritant but so far not a major disruptor.

The most effective terrorist attacks inside Iran have been launched by Israel, the US and the British — including the assassination of a string of Iranian peace negotiators, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, nuclear scientists and their families, and various regime figures.

How numerous the active strands of anti-regime elements are is hard to estimate. Equally hard to calculate is how many will move into open confrontation with the regime. Conversely, how unified, durable — or brittle — is the regime? How cohesive is the leadership of the IRGC and the Basij militias? Will they work effectively together in the trying times ahead? In particular, how successful has the CIA, MI6 and Mossad been at penetrating their structures and buying generals?

Both Iran’s nuclear programme and its government — in fact, the whole edifice and foundation of the Islamic Republic — is at the beginning of the greatest stress test of its existence.  If the centrifugal forces prove too great, I can’t help but think of the words of William Butler Yeats:

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

Are full of passionate intensity.

Peace and prosperity to all the people of Iran.  And let’s never forget the people of Palestine as they endure genocide.

Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

]]>
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15 months after ‘flour massacre’ shock, Israel commits daily Gaza food aid killings https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/15-months-after-flour-massacre-shock-israel-commits-daily-gaza-food-aid-killings/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/15-months-after-flour-massacre-shock-israel-commits-daily-gaza-food-aid-killings/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 22:00:38 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116436 BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

Kia ora koutou, 

I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

At least 16 killed by Israeli airstrike on al-Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza. 92 killed across Gaza in total, a significant number while seeking aid. 15 months after the shocking “flour massacre”, Israeli forces are now committing daily massacres against Gazan residents desperately seeking food due to Israel’s policy of forced starvation. These ongoing war crimes have been met with indifference, justification, and ongoing impunity from global leaders.

*

Jerusalem’s Old City markets remain closed for the seventh consecutive day after restrictions were imposed under the pretext of “wartime emergency”. Meanwhile, across the besieged West Bank the occupation forces continue demolishing homes in Tulkarm and Jenin refugee camps, where more than 40,000 residents have been displaced by Israel’s months-long “military operation”.

Israeli soldiers occupying houses south of Jenin as military barracks, embedding themselves among Palestinian civilians as they have for several days in Al Khalil/Hebron.

Around two-dozen young men detained in Asakra village south-east of Bethlehem, and several more in Laban village, south of Nablus. A young man, Moataz, 22, was executed by Israeli forces in his home village of Wolja west of Bethlehem. Movement of ambulances has been affected by gasoline shortages in Bethlehem. Forces invaded Plata camp in East Nablus for the second day in a row.

*

Israel bombed the outskirts of Shabaa town, in southern Lebanon, yet another violation of ceasefire agreements.

*

An Iranian missile hit Beersheba’s Soroka hospital in southern Israel last night, with no resulting casualties — Iran claiming it targeted a nearby military site. Outrage at the war crime has highlighted widespread double-standards across Israeli society and globally. Israeli forces have destroyed, bombed, or damaged 38 hospitals in Gaza over their 20-month genocidal war on the enclave, with the World Health Organisation recording around 700 attacks on Gazan healthcare facilities in that same period. Israeli residents have erected tents, transforming an underground parking lot into a bomb shelter.

*

Several more retaliatory volleys of Iranian missiles targeted the Israeli territories throughout the day, as heavy Israeli assaults continued on Iranian territories. Israel’s reported death toll has risen to 24, with Iran’s rising to 639.

Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Does China have an Internationalist Foreign Policy? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/does-china-have-an-internationalist-foreign-policy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/does-china-have-an-internationalist-foreign-policy/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:10:05 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159201 A number of observant commentators have raised questions about Peoples’ China’s Belt and Road Initiative and more broadly, the foreign policy of the PRC. Reliable left observers like Ann Garrison, writing in Black Agenda Report, have voiced concerns about Chinese investments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, based on Siddharth Kara’s book, Cobalt Red, […]

The post Does China have an Internationalist Foreign Policy? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
A number of observant commentators have raised questions about Peoples’ China’s Belt and Road Initiative and more broadly, the foreign policy of the PRC.

Reliable left observers like Ann Garrison, writing in Black Agenda Report, have voiced concerns about Chinese investments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, based on Siddharth Kara’s book, Cobalt Red, How the Blood of the Congo Powers Our Lives. Kara contends that Chinese are engaged in a brutal competition to acquire a raw material essential to battery manufacturing, participating in the highly exploitative practice of artisanal cobalt mining.

More recently, Razan Shawamreh has challenged the PRC’s economic engagement with Israel. Writing in Middle East Eye. Shawamreh cites three different Chinese state-owned companies heavily invested in Israeli firms servicing or operating in illegal settlements — ChemChina, Bright Foods, Fosum Group — that own or have a majority stake in an Israeli corporation. She charges Peoples’ China of hypocritically publicly denouncing Israeli policies while quietly aiding the cause of Israeli settlers.

On May 22, Kim Petersen posted a thoughtful, well reasoned piece on Dissident Voice, entitled “Palestine and the Conscience of China.” Petersen persuasively lauds the many achievements of Peoples’ China. It is easy to forget the century of humiliation that this once proud, advanced society suffered at the hands of European imperialism. After 12 years of fighting Japanese invaders and enduring a bloody civil war costing tens of millions of casualties, China’s advance since — under the leadership of the Communist Party of China — has been truly remarkable.

As Peoples’ China celebrates meeting its goal of becoming a “moderately prosperous” society, it is important to see how far it has come from 1949. When Western apologists for the market economy brag of the aggregate economic gains that global markets have brought to the developing world, they are largely talking about China (and, more recently, Vietnam and India).

By any measure of citizen satisfaction with their government by international surveys, the PRC consistently ranks at or near the top.

At the same time, Petersen raises questions about the seeming inconsistency of the Chinese government’s vocal criticism of Israel’s genocidal policies in Gaza and Peoples’ China’s continuing economic engagement with Israel. The PRC accounts for over 20% of Israeli imports.

Petersen quotes Professor T.P. Wilkinson: “Non-interference is China’s top principle — business comes first. If there is any morality it only applies in China.” And it is precisely China’s moral conscience that Petersen finds wanting.

Nick Corbishley, writing on June 6 in Naked Capitalism adds:

However, not everyone is trying — or even pretending — to distance themselves from Tel Aviv right now. The People’s Republic of China, for example, is actually seeking to strengthen its ties with Israel.

After initially siding with Palestine (and Hamas) following October 7, Beijing is now looking to rebuild ties with Israel. Just four days ago, as Israel’s Defence Forces were unleashing coordinated attacks on aid depots, China’s ambassador to Israel Xiao Junzheng discussed “deepening China-Israel economic and trade cooperation” with Israel’s Minister of Economy and Industry, Nir Barkat.

Still others ask why Peoples’ China, a self-described socialist country, has failed to replace the Soviet Union in guaranteeing the economic vitality of tiny socialist Cuba– a country starved by a US blockade and harsh sanctions upon anyone defying that blockade. It is difficult to reconcile the PRC’s modest economic aid to Cuba with China’s $19 billion dollars of annual exports to proscribed Israel.

China’s Foreign Policy in Retrospect

China’s foreign policy is a direct reflection of the political line of the Communist Party of China, a line changing often in the Party’s history. At the 10th National Congress (August, 1973) — the last before Mao’s death — Zhou Enlai delivered the main report. He affirmed that:

In the last fifty years our Party has gone through ten major struggles between the two lines… In the future, even after classes have disappeared… there will still be two-line struggles between the advanced and the backward and between the correct and the erroneous… there is the struggle between the socialist road and the capitalist road, there is the danger of capitalist restoration… The Tenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China (Documents), p. 16 [my emphasis]

Zhou explains that the opposition in the last two Congresses — led by Liu Shaoqi and Lin Biao — advocated that the main contradiction facing the party was “not the contradiction between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie, but that ‘between the advanced socialist system and the backward productive forces of society’”. In short, the two lines continually challenging the Party, as explained at the tenth congress, were that of the “productionists” — those giving priority to the development of the productive forces — and that of the class warriors — those giving priority to political struggle.

The CPC’s failure to simultaneously advance the productive forces and, at the same time, carry out a consistent, comprehensive class line accounts for its often inconsistent foreign policy.

Since the “opening” — the Deng reforms, beginning in 1978 — the productionist line has held sway in the Communist Party of China.

From the time of the rebuilding of the Party based on the rural peasantry after the destruction of its urban working-class base in 1927, Mao had sided with the class warriors.

Even in the era of the united front against Japanese aggression, Mao wrote in On New Democracy (1940) of the necessity of a cultural revolution, a focus on political and cultural struggle over other forms:

A cultural revolution is the ideological reflection of the political and economic revolution and is in their service. In China there is a united front in the cultural as in the political revolution… and the cultural campaign resulted in the outbreak of the December 8th Movement of the revolutionary youth in 1935. And the common result of both was the awakening of the people of the whole country… The most amazing thing of all was that the Kuomintang’s cultural “encirclement and suppression” campaign failed completely in the Kuomintang areas as well, although the Communist Party was in an utterly defenceless position in all the cultural and educational institutions there. Why did this happen? Does it not give food for prolonged and deep thought? It was in the very midst of such campaigns of “encirclement and suppression” that Lu Hsun, who believed in communism, became the giant of China’s cultural revolution… New-democratic culture is national. It opposes imperialist oppression and upholds the dignity and independence of the Chinese nation. It belongs to our own nation and bears our own national characteristics… [my emphasis]

The centrality of cultural revolution likely comes from the class base shaping the trajectory of Chinese Communism. Because the Kuomintang wiped out the CPC’s urban working-class centers in 1927, the Party became based in the rural peasantry, as Mao freely concedes in On New Democracy:

This means that the Chinese revolution is essentially a peasant revolution…. Essentially, mass culture means raising the cultural level of the peasants… And essentially it is the peasants who provide everything that sustains the resistance to Japan and keeps us going. By “essentially” we mean basically, not ignoring the other sections of the people, as Stalin himself has explained. As every schoolboy knows, 80 per cent of China’s population are peasants. So the peasant problem becomes the basic problem of the Chinese revolution and the strength of the peasants is the main strength of the Chinese revolution. In the Chinese population the workers rank second to the peasants in number…

On New Democracy suggests that Mao places primacy of place in the struggle for the support of the peasantry, a struggle that is cultural in form and national in scope. While Mao locates the Party’s battles within the world revolutionary process, he doesn’t see it as an immediate fight for socialism, but apart from it, for China’s national liberation:

This is a time … when the proletariat of the capitalist countries is preparing to overthrow capitalism and establish socialism, and when the proletariat, the peasantry, the intelligentsia and other sections of the petty bourgeoisie in China have become a mighty independent political force under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. Situated as we are in this day and age, should we not make the appraisal that the Chinese revolution has taken on still greater world significance? I think we should. The Chinese revolution has become a very important part of the world revolution… [my emphasis]

The separation between the proletariat’s role in the capitalist countries and the Party’s “independent” role in shaping a multi-class force could not be clearer.

Absent from the 1940 statement of Mao’s vision is any endorsement of the Communist International’s broad principles of solidarity. Instead, the Party operated under the Three Principles of the People, the CPC’s revision of Sun-Yat Sen’s original Three Principles. On New Democracy defines them as:

Three Great Policies of alliance with Russia, co-operation with the Communist Party and assistance to the peasants and workers. Without each and every one of these Three Great Policies, the Three People’s Principles become either false or incomplete in the new period…

Thus, “alliance with Russia” (USSR) became central to China’s foreign policy and expanded to alliance with other socialist countries. After liberation in 1949, the PRC practiced that line by aiding the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea, especially in repelling the US and its allies as they invaded DPRK territory. The PRC military fought in the DPRK until the armistice of 1953. Over 183,000 Chinese died resisting the invasion of the North.

The CPC established ties with various liberation movements after the Korean War, with Peoples’ China offering military aid and training to many movements in Asia and Africa. At the same time, the PRC adopted Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence to lead foreign relations: respect for territory and sovereignty, non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, equality and cooperation for common benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

The Five Principles were strikingly similar to the natural-law doctrines adopted by the early mercantilist theorists of bourgeois international relations; they constituted an even less robust version of the eight points of the 1941 Atlantic Charter crafted by Roosevelt and Churchill. Nonetheless, they were enshrined in the constitution of Peoples’ China:

China pursues an independent foreign policy, observes the five principles of mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual nonaggression, mutual noninterference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence, keeps to a path of peaceful development, follows a mutually beneficial strategy of opening up, works to develop diplomatic relations and economic and cultural exchanges with other countries, and promotes the building of a human community with a shared future. [my emphasis]

By the end of the 1950s, The CPC had rejected the first of the “three great policies”: the “alliance with Russia”. The PRC had embarked on a period of bitter conflict with the USSR, culminating with a split in the unity of the World Communist Movement. It is source of great irony that many of the charges the CPC made against the Soviets in the Mao era were and are features of China today that have drawn the same charges from some on the left: The Chinese attacked the Soviet policy of peaceful coexistence with the US, taunting the US as a paper tiger; they accused the Soviets of being “social-imperialist” intent on global hegemony; they claimed a restoration of capitalism in the Soviet Union; they accused the Soviet Party of revising Marxism-Leninism. All charges that resonate for some in current policies of Peoples’ China.

It is difficult to reconcile the Five Principles with the PRC support for the US proxies in the former Portuguese African colonies. For over a decade, the PRC sided with South Africa, Israel, the US, and bogus liberation movements in Angola, Mozambique, and Guinea-Bissau, delivering weapons, training, and material support to surrogates fighting the internationally recognized freedom fighters. It was left for thousands of Cuban internationalists to give their lives to finally close the door on this ugly chapter and open the door to the fall of Apartheid.

It is difficult to reconcile the Five Principles with the PRC 1979 invasion of Vietnam, ostensibly in response to Democratic Vietnam’s overthrow of the Khmer Rouge — an intervention, if principally motivated, that cannot be squared with the PRC’s vocal denunciation of the Warsaw alliance’s engagement in Czechoslovakia in 1968.

It is difficult to reconcile the twists and turns of Peoples’ China’s foreign policies with its once radical denouncement of Soviet foreign policy as “social-imperialist.” The late, estimable Al Szymanski– a scrupulous researcher– met those charges in great detail (“Soviet Socialism and Proletarian Internationalism” in The Soviet Union: Socialist or Social-Imperialist?, 1983), showing that Soviet “export of capital” outside of the socialist community was minimal, largely limited to establishing enterprises that expedited trade. Soviet assistance was limited almost entirely to countries outside of or escaping the tyranny of global markets. Soviet trade was minimal — Szymanski argued that it was the world’s most self-sufficient system (no doubt often through forced isolation). Its importing of raw material was minimal: “In short the Soviet economy, unlike those of all Western imperialist countries… has no… need to subordinate less developed countries to obtain raw materials.”

Also, the Soviet Union frequently paid higher prices for imported goods than market prices. Citing Asha Datar, “[O]f the 12 leading export commodities studied…, six were consistently purchased by the USSR at higher than their world prices, three usually purchased at prices higher than those paid by the capitalist countries, and two purchased on a year to year basis sometimes above and sometimes below the world market price.”

Suffice it to say, the Soviet Union substantially subsidized trade with fraternal countries, especially within the socialist community (CMEA), Cuba receiving especially generous terms of exchange.

It would be interesting to compare the PRC’s current foreign policy with the internationalist standards set by the former Soviet Union.

Nonetheless, Peoples’ China — since the victory of the productionist line under Deng’s leadership — has largely been a force for stability in international relations. Over the last thirty or so years, the PRC has sought to maintain a peaceful stage for its trade-based economic expansion while the US and its capitalist allies have engaged in one bloody, imperialist adventure after another. Entry into the global market and acceptance into its market-based institutions has been well served by its Five Principles foreign policy.

But it has been naive to expect capitalist great powers to respect the high-minded, Enlightenment values of the Five Principles and simply stand by while the PRC rises to challenge their dominance of the world economy. Since Engels’ early writings, Marxists have understood that competition is the motor of the commodity-based economy. And since Lenin, Marxists have understood that competition between monopoly capitals and their hosts have spawned aggression and war.

It is equally naive — or disingenuous — to equate the Five Principles with the proletarian internationalism, class solidarity that has been embraced by the international Communist movement throughout the twentieth century. From Comintern activity, to the internationalist sacrifices made for democratic Spain, to the generous support for liberation movements, and the aid to the people of Vietnam, militant, principled internationalism differs fundamentally from the neutrality embodied in the Five Principles. The Five Principles serve a world with no injustice, a world without class struggle, a world without aggression and war.

Indeed, the solidarity advocated in the PRC constitution — “China consistently opposes imperialism, hegemonism and colonialism, works to strengthen its solidarity with the people of all other countries, supports oppressed peoples and other developing countries in their just struggles to win and safeguard their independence and develop their economies, and strives to safeguard world peace and promote the cause of human progress” — is inconsistent with the neutrality and non-intervention of the Five Principles, in any realistic sense.

Where neutrality may have borne few negative consequences during the PRC’s isolation from global markets, China’s profound economic relations with virtually every country in the twenty-first century, do have consequences, consequences of enormous moral impact.

Like other countries that engage economically or refrain from engaging economically (sanctions, tariffs, boycotts, blockades, etc.), the PRC must be judged by that engagement.

With the daily slaughter of Gazan civilians, the brutal actions of Israel cannot be separated from its trading partners: China, the US, Germany, Italy, Turkiye, Russia, France, South Korea, India, and Spain, in descending order of dollar volume of exports to Israel.

And now with the brazen, unprovoked Israeli attack on its putative “friend” Iran, the neutrality of the Five Principles is even less defensible. The “win-win” strategy of many CPC leaders and their allies is a utopian dream that social justice cannot afford.

The post Does China have an Internationalist Foreign Policy? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Greg Godels.

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Playing and Being Played on the Road to Nuclear War https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/playing-and-being-played-on-the-road-to-nuclear-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/playing-and-being-played-on-the-road-to-nuclear-war/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:05:10 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159196 To hell with the truth! As the history of the world proves, the truth has no bearing on anything. It’s irrelevant and immaterial, as the lawyers say. The lie of a pipe dream is what gives life to the whole misbegotten mad lot of us, drunk or sober. — Eugene O’Neill, The Iceman Cometh There […]

The post Playing and Being Played on the Road to Nuclear War first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

To hell with the truth! As the history of the world proves, the truth has no bearing on anything. It’s irrelevant and immaterial, as the lawyers say. The lie of a pipe dream is what gives life to the whole misbegotten mad lot of us, drunk or sober.

— Eugene O’Neill, The Iceman Cometh

There is a good chance that very shortly the United States will overtly join its proxy Israel in attacking Iran. Only a fool would be surprised. Plausible deniability only goes so far. Pipe dreams perdure as the nuclear war that could never happen gets closer to happening.

That Donald Trump is a diabolic liar and his administration is composed of depraved war criminals is a fact.

That those who bought his no foreign wars bullshit were deluded is a fact.

That Trump fully supports the genocidal lunatic Netanyahu is a fact.

That the U.S.A. is already supporting Israel’s unprovoked war on Iran is a fact.

That the American electorate is always fooled by the linguistic mind control of its presidents is a fact.

“Facing clear evidence of peril, we cannot wait for the final proof, the smoking gun, that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud,” George W. Bush said at a staged pseudo-event on October 7, 2002 as he set Americans up for the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.  It was all predictable, blatant deception.  And the media played along with such an absurdity.  Iraq obviously had no nuclear weapons or the slightest capability to deliver even a firecracker on the U.S. The same is true for Iran today.

Trump is, after all, a United States President. The job’s requirements insist that he be a war criminal at the head of a terrorist state, and that he support the apartheid state of Israel’s killing regime, as the United States has done since its founding – actually long before.

The CIA and its ilk provide the shifting propaganda narratives that take many forms: smooth, blustery, halting, etc., but they are all aimed at creating two minds in the American population by sending mixed messages (a Trump specialty), creating mental double-binds, and using various techniques to mystify people’s experience of reality and truth. The CIA always liked to attract literary types to its propaganda efforts. Their objective is to create through verbal contradictory word usage a sense of schizoid confusion in the population. To provide pipe dreams for those who feel that their politician will set things right next time around. Or to provide ex post facto justifications for the last president’s innocence.

Think of the bullshit media headlines such as “Trump is weighing his options” or “Trump weighing Involvement” about attacking Iran.  As I wrote about Trump and Iran in June 2019 – “The War Hoax Redux – in a repeat of what I wrote about Bush and Iraq in February 2003 by simply substituting names:

As in 1991 and 2003 concerning Iraq, the MSM play along with Trump, who repeatedly says, or has his spokespeople say, that the decision hasn’t been made [to attack Iran] and that the U.S. wants peace. Within a few hours this is contradicted and confusion and uncertainty reign, as planned. Chaos is the name of the game. But everyone in the know knows the decision to attack has been made at some level, especially once the propaganda dummies are all in place. But they pretend, while the media wait with baited breath as they anticipate their countdown to the dramatic moment when they report the incident that will “compel” the U.S. to attack.

Now that Biden has made sure a terrorist runs Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon is rendered weak, allowing Israel full control over their air spaces, and Gaza pulverized and genocide well underway, the pieces are in place for Trump to bomb Iran.

Commentators often blame the actions – like Trump’s vis-à-vis Iran – on pressure from the so-called “deep state.” Excuses abound. But there is no deep state. The official American government is the “deep state.” The use of the term is a prime example of the efficacy of linguistic mind control. The use of words that have contradictory meanings – contronyms – to create untenable double-binds that result in mental checkmate. Create false opposites to frame the mind control.

Innocence – give a sardonic laugh! These are the men who have waged endless wars, overt and covert, for decade upon decade, have dispatched special forces and CIA death squads throughout the world, and support genocide in Gaza and the destruction of Russia as their bosses require. Those who seek the office know this. Only those who are known to pledge allegiance to American imperialism and the love of war are allowed anywhere near the U.S. presidency. The present war on Iran has been long in the making, as has the destruction of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Russia, China, etc.

These bloodthirsty hyenas with polished faces come in all varieties, from Slick Willy to Dumb Georgie to Smiling Barack to Gross Don to Malarkey Joe and around and around we go again and again. Each is cast to perform the script – to speak the lingo – appropriate to his actor’s ability and his looks (let’s not forget this), but to serve the same ends. If it were not so, the U.S. would have stopped waging non-stop wars long ago. It’s simple to understand if one retains a smidgeon of logic.

If you think otherwise, you are deluded. I will not waste much time explaining why. The historical facts confirm it.

The U.S.A. is a warfare state; it’s as simple as that.  Without waging wars, the U.S. economy, as presently constituted, would collapse.  It is an economy based on fantasy and fake money with a national debt over 36 trillion dollars that will never be repaid.  That’s another illusion.  But I am speaking of pipe dreams, am I not?

And whether they choose to be aware of it or not, the vast majority of Americans support this killing machine by their indifference and ignorance of its ramifications throughout the society and more importantly, its effects in death and destruction on the rest of the world.  But that’s how it goes as their focus is on the masked faces that face each other on the electoral stage of the masquerade ball every four years. Liars all.

But they all speak the double-speak that creates pipe-dreams on the road to nuclear war.

Will we ever stop believing them before it is too late?

The post Playing and Being Played on the Road to Nuclear War first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Edward Curtin.

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Missed Opportunity on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/missed-opportunity-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/missed-opportunity-on-iran/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 13:00:00 +0000 https://progressive.org/latest/missed-opportunity-on-iran-zunes-20250618/
This content originally appeared on The Progressive — A voice for peace, social justice, and the common good and was authored by Stephen Zunes.

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A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/a-war-on-diplomacy-itself-israels-unprovoked-attack-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/a-war-on-diplomacy-itself-israels-unprovoked-attack-on-iran/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 11:01:34 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116399 ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren

Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu claimed he acted to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb, saying Iran had the capacity to build nine nuclear weapons. Israel provided no evidence to back up its claims.

On 25 March 2025, Trump’s own National Director of Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said: 

“The IC [Intelligence Community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003. The IC is monitoring if Tehran decides to reauthorise its nuclear weapons programme”

Even if Iran had the capability to build a bomb, it is quite another thing to have the will to do so.

Any such bomb would need to be tested first, and any such test would be quickly detected by a series of satellites on the lookout for nuclear detonations anywhere on the planet.

It is more likely that Israel launched its attack to stop US and Iranian negotiators from meeting on Sunday.

Only a month ago, Iran’s lead negotiator in the nuclear talks, Ali Shamkhani, told US television that Iran was ready to do a deal. NBC journalist Richard Engel reports:

“Shamkhani said Iran is willing to commit to never having a nuclear weapon, to get rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, to only enrich to a level needed for civilian use and to allow inspectors in to oversee it all, in exchange for lifting all sanctions immediately. He said Iran would accept that deal tonight.”


Inside Iran as Trump presses for nuclear deal.   Video: NBC News

Shamkhani died on Saturday, following injuries he suffered during Israel’s attack on Friday night. It appears that Israel not only opposed a diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear impasse: Israel killed it directly.

A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, told a news conference in Tehran the talks would be suspended until Israel halts its attacks:

“It is obvious that in such circumstances and until the Zionist regime’s aggression against the Iranian nation stops, it would be meaningless to participate with the party that is the biggest supporter and accomplice of the aggressor.”

On 1 April 2024, Israel launched an airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Syria, killing 16 people, including a woman and her son. The attack violated international norms regarding the protection of diplomatic premises under the Vienna Convention.

Yet the UK, USA and France blocked a United Nations Security Council statement condemning Israel’s actions.

It is worth noting how the The New York Times described the occupation of the US Embassy in November 1979:

“But it is the Ayatollah himself who is doing the devil’s work by inciting and condoning the student invasion of the American and British Embassies in Tehran. This is not just a diplomatic affront; it is a declaration of war on diplomacy itself, on usages and traditions honoured by all nations, however old and new, whatever belief.

“The immunities given a ruler’s emissaries were respected by the kings of Persia during wars with Greece and by the Ayatollah’s spiritual ancestors during the Crusades.”

Now it is Israel conducting a “war on diplomacy itself”, first with the attack on the embassy, followed by Friday’s surprise attack on Iran. Scuppering a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear issue appears to be the aim. To make matters worse, Israel’s recklessness could yet cause a major war.

Trump: Inconsistent and ineffective
In an interview with Time magazine on 22 April 2025, Trump denied he had stopped Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear sites.

“No, it’s not right. I didn’t stop them. But I didn’t make it comfortable for them, because I think we can make a deal without the attack. I hope we can. It’s possible we’ll have to attack because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.

“But I didn’t make it comfortable for them, but I didn’t say no. Ultimately I was going to leave that choice to them, but I said I would much prefer a deal than bombs being dropped.”

— US President Donald Trump

In the same interview Trump boasted “I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran. Nobody else could do that.” Except, someone else had already done that — only for Trump to abandon the deal in his first term as president.

In July 2015 Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alongside the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the European Union. Iran pledged to curb its nuclear programme for 10-15 years in exchange for the removal of some economic sanctions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also gained access and verification powers.

Iran also agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent U-235, allowing it to maintain its nuclear power reactors.

Despite clear signs the nuclear deal was working, Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and reinstated sanctions on Iran in November 2018. Despite the unilateral American action, Iran kept to the deal for a time, but in January 2020 Iran declared it would no longer abide by the limitations included in JCPOA but would continue to work with the IAEA.

By pulling out of the deal and reinstating sanctions, the US and Israel effectively created a strong incentive for Iran to resume enriching uranium to higher levels, not for the sake of making a bomb, but as the most obvious means of creating leverage to remove the sanctions.

As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Iran is allowed to enrich uranium for civilian fuel programmes.

Iran’s nuclear programme began in the 1960s with US assistance. Prior to the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran was ruled by the brutal dictatorship of the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahavi.

American corporations saw Iran as a potential market for expansion. During the 1970s the US suggested to the Shah he needed not one but several nuclear reactors to meet Iran’s future electricity needs. In June 1974, the Shah declared that Iran would have nuclear weapons, “without a doubt and sooner than one would think”.

In 2007, I wrote an article for Peace Researcher where I examined US claims that Iran does not need nuclear power because it is sitting on one of the largest gas supplies in the world. One of the most interesting things I discovered while researching the article was the relevance of air pollution, a critical public health concern in Iran.

In 2024, health officials estimated that air pollution is responsible for 40,000 deaths a year in Iran. Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisi said the “majority of these deaths were due to cardiovascular diseases, strokes, respiratory issues, and cancers”.

Sahimi describes levels of air pollution in Tehran and other major Iranian cities as “catastrophic”, with elementary schools having to close on some days as a result. There was little media coverage of the air pollution issue in relation to Iran’s energy mix then, and I have seen hardly any since.

An energy research project, Advanced Energy Technologies provides a useful summary of electricity production in Iran as it stood in 2023.

Iranian electricity production in 2023. Source: Advanced Energy Technologies

With around 94.6 percent of electricity generation dependent on fossil fuels, there are serious environmental reasons why Iran should not be encouraged to depend on oil and gas for its electricity needs — not to mention the prospect of climate change.

One could also question the safety of nuclear power in one of the most seismically active countries in the world, however it would be fair to ask the same question of countries like Japan, which aims to increase its use of nuclear power to about 20 percent of the country’s total electricity generation by 2040, despite the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran’s uranium enrichment programme “must continue”, but the “scope and level may change”. Prior to the talks in Oman, Araghchi highlighted the “constant change” in US positions as a problem.

Trump’s rhetoric on uranium enrichment has shifted repeatedly.

He told Meet the Press on May 4 that “total dismantlement” of the nuclear program is “all I would accept.” He suggested that Iran does not need nuclear energy because of its oil reserves. But on May 7, when asked specifically about allowing Iran to retain a limited enrichment program, Trump said “we haven’t made that decision yet.”

Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in a May 14 interview with NBC that Iran is ready to sign a deal with the United States and reiterated that Iran is willing to limit uranium enrichment to low levels. He previously suggested in a May 7 post on X that any deal should include a “recognition of Iran’s right to industrial enrichment.”

That recognition, plus the removal of U.S. and international sanctions, “can guarantee a deal,” Shamkhani said.

So with Iran seemingly willing to accept reasonable conditions, why was a deal not reached last month? It appears the US changed its position, and demanded Iran cease all enrichment of uranium, including what Iran needs for its power stations.

One wonders if Zionist lobby groups like AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) influenced this decision. One could recall what happened during Benjamin Netanyahu’s first stint as Israel’s Prime Minister (1996-1999) to illustrate the point.

In April 1995 AIPAC published a report titled ‘Comprehensive US Sanctions Against Iran: A Plan for Action’. In 1997 Mohammad Khatami was elected as President of Iran. The following year Khatami expressed regret for the takeover of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979 and denounced terrorism against Israelis, while noting that “supporting peoples who fight for their liberation of their land is not, in my opinion, supporting terrorism”.

The threat of improved relations between Iran and the US sent the Israeli government led by Netanyahu into a panic. The Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz reported that “Israel has expressed concern to Washington of an impending change of policy by the United States towards Iran” adding that Netanyahu “asked AIPAC . . . to act vigorously in Congress to prevent such a policy shift.”

Twenty years ago the Israeli lobby were claiming an Iranian nuclear bomb was imminent. It didn’t happen.


Netanyahu’s Iran nuclear warnings.   Video: Al Jazeera

The misguided efforts of Israel and the United States to contain Iran’s use of nuclear technology are not only counterproductive — they risk being a catastrophic failure. If one was going to design a policy to convince Iran nuclear weapons may be needed for its own defence, it is hard to imagine a policy more effective than the one Israel has pursued for the past 30 years.My 2007 Peace Researcher article asked a simple question: ‘Why does Iran want nuclear weapons?’ My introduction could have been written yesterday.

“With all the talk about Iran and the intentions of its nuclear programme it is a shame the West continues to undermine its own position with selective morality and obvious hypocrisy. It seems amazing there can be so much written about this issue, yet so little addresses the obvious question – ‘for what reasons could Iran want nuclear weapons?’.

“As Simon Jenkins (2006) points out, the answer is as simple as looking at a map. ‘I would sleep happier if there were no Iranian bomb but a swamp of hypocrisy separates me from overly protesting it. Iran is a proud country that sits between nuclear Pakistan and India to its east, a nuclear Russia to its north and a nuclear Israel to its west. Adjacent Afghanistan and Iraq are occupied at will by a nuclear America, which backed Saddam Hussein in his 1980 invasion of Iran. How can we say such a country has no right’ to nuclear defence?'”

This week the German Foreign Office reached new heights in hypocrisy with this absurd tweet.

Image

Iran has no nuclear weapons. Israel does. Iran is a signatory to the NPT. Israel is not. Iran allows IAEA inspections. Israel does not.

Starting another war will not make us forget, nor forgive what Israel is doing in Gaza.

From the river to the sea, credibility requires consistency.

I write about New Zealand and international politics, with particular interests in political economy, history, philosophy, transport, and workers’ rights. I don’t like war very much.

Joe Hendren writes about New Zealand and international politics, with particular interests in political economy, history, philosophy, transport, and workers’ rights. Republished with his permission. Read this original article on his Substack account with full references.


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/egyptian-crackdown-on-gaza-blockade-busters-but-kiwi-activists-vow-to-defeat-genocide/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/egyptian-crackdown-on-gaza-blockade-busters-but-kiwi-activists-vow-to-defeat-genocide/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 07:30:27 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116364 SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo

Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo.

In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo to Gaza to lend support.

The land of oranges and pyramids became the land of autocracy last week as peace aid volunteers — young, middle-aged, and elderly — were herded like cattle and cordoned behind fences.

  • READ MORE: Egypt arrests, deports and attacks Global March for Gaza Convoy
  • Egypt stops pro-Palestine activists in their March to Gaza — video
  • More Middle East conflict reports

Their passports were initially seized — and later returned. Several New Zealanders were among those dragged and beaten.

While ordinary Egyptians showed “huge support” for the GMTG, the militant Egyptian regime showed its hand in supporting Israel rather than Palestine.

A member of the delegation, Natasha*, said she and other members pursued every available diplomatic channel to ensure that the peaceful, humanitarian, march would reach Gaza.

Moved by love, they were met with hate.

Violently attacked
“When I stepped toward the crowd’s edge and began instinctually with heart break to chant, ‘Free Palestine,’ I was violently attacked by five plainclothes men.

“They screamed, grabbed, shoved, and even spat on me,” she said.

Tackled, she was dragged to an unmarked van. She did not resist, posed no threat, yet the violence escalated instantly.

“I saw hatred in their eyes.”

Egyptian state security forces and embedded provocateurs were intent on dismantling and discrediting the Global March
Egyptian state security forces and embedded provocateurs were intent on dismantling and discrediting the Global March activists. Image: GMTG

Another GMTG member, a woman who tried to intervene was also “viciously assaulted”. She witnessed at least three other women and two men being attacked.

The peacemakers escaped from the unmarked van the aggressors were distracted, seemingly confused about their destination, she said.

It is now clear that from the beginning Egyptian State forces and embedded provocateurs were intent on dismantling and discrediting the GMTG.

Authorities as provocateurs
The peace participants witnessed plainclothed authorities act as provacateurs, “shoving people, stepping on them, throwing objects” to create a false image for media.

New Zealand actor Will Alexander
New Zealand actor Will Alexander . . . “This is only a fraction of what Palestinians experience every day.” GMTG

New Zealand actor Will Alexander said the experience had inflated rather than deflated his passion for human rights, and compassion for Palestinians.

“This is only a fraction of what Palestinians experience everyday. Palestinians pushed into smaller and smaller areas are murdered for wanting to stand on their own land,” he said.

“The reason that ordinary New Zealanders like us need to put our bodies on the line is because our government has failed to uphold its obligations under the Genocide Convention.

“Israel has blatantly breached international law for decades with total impunity.”

While the New Zealanders are all safe, a small number of people in the wider movement had been forcibly ‘disappeared’,” said GMTG New Zealand member Sam Leason.

Their whereabouts was still unknown, he said.

Arab members targeted
“It must be emphasised that it is primarily — and possibly strictly — Arab members of the March who are the targets of the most dramatic and violent excesses committed by the Egyptian authorities, including all forced disappearances.”

The Global March to Gaza activists
Global March to Gaza activists being attacked . . . the genocide cannot be sustained when people from around the world push against the Israeli regime and support the people on the ground with food and healthcare. Image: GMTG screenshot APR

This did, however, continuously add to the mounting sense of stress, tension, anxiety and fear, felt by the contingent, he said.

“Especially given the Egyptian authorities’ disregard to their own legal system, which leaves us blindsided and in a thick fog of uncertainty.”

Moving swiftly through the streets of Cairo in the pitch of night, from hotel to hotel and safehouse to safehouse, was a “surreal and dystopian” experience for the New Zealanders and other GMTG members.

The group says that the genocide cannot be sustained when people from around the world push against the Israeli regime and support the people on the ground with food and healthcare.

“For 20 months our hearts have raced and our eyes have filled in unison with the elderly, men, women, and children, and the babies in Palestine,” said Billie*, a participant who preferred, for safety reasons, not to reveal their surname.

“If we do not react to the carnage, suffering and complete injustice and recognise our shared need for sane governance and a liveable planet what is the point?”

Experienced despair
Aqua*, another New Zealand GMTG member, had experienced despair seeing the suffering of Palestinians, but she said it was important to nurture hope, as that was the only way to stop the genocide.

“We cling to every glimmer of hope that presents itself. Like an oasis in a desert devoid of human emotion we chase any potential igniter of the flame of change.”

Activist Eva Mulla
Activist Eva Mulla . . . inspired by the courage of the Palestinians. Image: GMTG screenshot APR

Ava Mulla, said from Cairo, that the group was inspired by the courage of the Palestinians.

“They’ve been fighting for freedom and justice for decades against the world’s strongest powers. They are courageous and steadfast.”

Mulla referred to the “We Were Seeds” saying inspired by Greek poet Dinos Christianopoulos.

“We are millions of seeds. Every act of injustice fuels our growth,” she said.

Helplessness an illusion
The GMTG members agreed that “impotence and helplessness was an illusion” that led to inaction but such inaction allowed “unspeakable atrocities” to take place.

“This is the holocaust of our age,” said Sam Leason.

“We need the world to leave the rhetorical and symbolic field of discourse and move promptly towards the camp of concrete action to protect the people of Palestine from a clear campaign of extermination.”

Saige England is an Aotearoa New Zealand journalist, author, and poet, member of the Palestinian Solidarity Network of Aotearoa (PSNA), and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

*Several protesters quoted in this article requested that their family names not be reported for security reasons. Ava Mulla was born in Germany and lives in Aotearoa with her partner, actor Will Alexander. She studied industrial engineering and is passionate about innovative housing solutions for developing countries. She is a member of the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA).

New Zealand and other activists taking part in the Global March to Gaza
New Zealand and other activists with Tino Rangatiratanga and Palestine flags taking part in the Global March To Gaza. Will Alexander (far left) is in the back row and Ava Mulla (pink tee shirt) is in the front row. Image: GMTG screenshot APR


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/egyptian-crackdown-on-gaza-blockade-busters-but-kiwi-activists-vow-to-defeat-genocide-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/egyptian-crackdown-on-gaza-blockade-busters-but-kiwi-activists-vow-to-defeat-genocide-2/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 07:30:27 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116364 SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo

Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo.

In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo to Gaza to lend support.

The land of oranges and pyramids became the land of autocracy last week as peace aid volunteers — young, middle-aged, and elderly — were herded like cattle and cordoned behind fences.

  • READ MORE: Egypt arrests, deports and attacks Global March for Gaza Convoy
  • Egypt stops pro-Palestine activists in their March to Gaza — video
  • More Middle East conflict reports

Their passports were initially seized — and later returned. Several New Zealanders were among those dragged and beaten.

While ordinary Egyptians showed “huge support” for the GMTG, the militant Egyptian regime showed its hand in supporting Israel rather than Palestine.

A member of the delegation, Natasha*, said she and other members pursued every available diplomatic channel to ensure that the peaceful, humanitarian, march would reach Gaza.

Moved by love, they were met with hate.

Violently attacked
“When I stepped toward the crowd’s edge and began instinctually with heart break to chant, ‘Free Palestine,’ I was violently attacked by five plainclothes men.

“They screamed, grabbed, shoved, and even spat on me,” she said.

Tackled, she was dragged to an unmarked van. She did not resist, posed no threat, yet the violence escalated instantly.

“I saw hatred in their eyes.”

Egyptian state security forces and embedded provocateurs were intent on dismantling and discrediting the Global March
Egyptian state security forces and embedded provocateurs were intent on dismantling and discrediting the Global March activists. Image: GMTG

Another GMTG member, a woman who tried to intervene was also “viciously assaulted”. She witnessed at least three other women and two men being attacked.

The peacemakers escaped from the unmarked van the aggressors were distracted, seemingly confused about their destination, she said.

It is now clear that from the beginning Egyptian State forces and embedded provocateurs were intent on dismantling and discrediting the GMTG.

Authorities as provocateurs
The peace participants witnessed plainclothed authorities act as provacateurs, “shoving people, stepping on them, throwing objects” to create a false image for media.

New Zealand actor Will Alexander
New Zealand actor Will Alexander . . . “This is only a fraction of what Palestinians experience every day.” GMTG

New Zealand actor Will Alexander said the experience had inflated rather than deflated his passion for human rights, and compassion for Palestinians.

“This is only a fraction of what Palestinians experience everyday. Palestinians pushed into smaller and smaller areas are murdered for wanting to stand on their own land,” he said.

“The reason that ordinary New Zealanders like us need to put our bodies on the line is because our government has failed to uphold its obligations under the Genocide Convention.

“Israel has blatantly breached international law for decades with total impunity.”

While the New Zealanders are all safe, a small number of people in the wider movement had been forcibly ‘disappeared’,” said GMTG New Zealand member Sam Leason.

Their whereabouts was still unknown, he said.

Arab members targeted
“It must be emphasised that it is primarily — and possibly strictly — Arab members of the March who are the targets of the most dramatic and violent excesses committed by the Egyptian authorities, including all forced disappearances.”

The Global March to Gaza activists
Global March to Gaza activists being attacked . . . the genocide cannot be sustained when people from around the world push against the Israeli regime and support the people on the ground with food and healthcare. Image: GMTG screenshot APR

This did, however, continuously add to the mounting sense of stress, tension, anxiety and fear, felt by the contingent, he said.

“Especially given the Egyptian authorities’ disregard to their own legal system, which leaves us blindsided and in a thick fog of uncertainty.”

Moving swiftly through the streets of Cairo in the pitch of night, from hotel to hotel and safehouse to safehouse, was a “surreal and dystopian” experience for the New Zealanders and other GMTG members.

The group says that the genocide cannot be sustained when people from around the world push against the Israeli regime and support the people on the ground with food and healthcare.

“For 20 months our hearts have raced and our eyes have filled in unison with the elderly, men, women, and children, and the babies in Palestine,” said Billie*, a participant who preferred, for safety reasons, not to reveal their surname.

“If we do not react to the carnage, suffering and complete injustice and recognise our shared need for sane governance and a liveable planet what is the point?”

Experienced despair
Aqua*, another New Zealand GMTG member, had experienced despair seeing the suffering of Palestinians, but she said it was important to nurture hope, as that was the only way to stop the genocide.

“We cling to every glimmer of hope that presents itself. Like an oasis in a desert devoid of human emotion we chase any potential igniter of the flame of change.”

Activist Eva Mulla
Activist Eva Mulla . . . inspired by the courage of the Palestinians. Image: GMTG screenshot APR

Ava Mulla, said from Cairo, that the group was inspired by the courage of the Palestinians.

“They’ve been fighting for freedom and justice for decades against the world’s strongest powers. They are courageous and steadfast.”

Mulla referred to the “We Were Seeds” saying inspired by Greek poet Dinos Christianopoulos.

“We are millions of seeds. Every act of injustice fuels our growth,” she said.

Helplessness an illusion
The GMTG members agreed that “impotence and helplessness was an illusion” that led to inaction but such inaction allowed “unspeakable atrocities” to take place.

“This is the holocaust of our age,” said Sam Leason.

“We need the world to leave the rhetorical and symbolic field of discourse and move promptly towards the camp of concrete action to protect the people of Palestine from a clear campaign of extermination.”

Saige England is an Aotearoa New Zealand journalist, author, and poet, member of the Palestinian Solidarity Network of Aotearoa (PSNA), and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

*Several protesters quoted in this article requested that their family names not be reported for security reasons. Ava Mulla was born in Germany and lives in Aotearoa with her partner, actor Will Alexander. She studied industrial engineering and is passionate about innovative housing solutions for developing countries. She is a member of the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA).

New Zealand and other activists taking part in the Global March to Gaza
New Zealand and other activists with Tino Rangatiratanga and Palestine flags taking part in the Global March To Gaza. Will Alexander (far left) is in the back row and Ava Mulla (pink tee shirt) is in the front row. Image: GMTG screenshot APR


This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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Viral video of Israeli soldier pleading Iran for mercy is AI-generated https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/viral-video-of-israeli-soldier-pleading-iran-for-mercy-is-ai-generated/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/19/viral-video-of-israeli-soldier-pleading-iran-for-mercy-is-ai-generated/#respond Thu, 19 Jun 2025 05:40:13 +0000 https://www.altnews.in/?p=300750 With tensions escalating in the Iran-Israel conflict, which has claimed many civilian lives since it began on June 13, a video of an Israeli soldier in tears, begging for mercy,...

The post Viral video of Israeli soldier pleading Iran for mercy is AI-generated appeared first on Alt News.

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With tensions escalating in the Iran-Israel conflict, which has claimed many civilian lives since it began on June 13, a video of an Israeli soldier in tears, begging for mercy, has gone viral. In the video, the soldier looks at the camera and urges the Iranian army to stop the destruction, while injured soldiers are seen lying in the rubble of destroyed buildings in the background. “Iran, we beg you. Please stop the attacks. Half of Israel is gone. We surrender. Just stop this destruction,” he says.

The conflict between the two, which is threatening to turn into an all-out war, started with Israel attacking nuclear and military sites in Iran on June 13. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the attack ‘Operation Rising Lion‘ – supposedly launched to disconcert Iran’s nuclear program. However, the strikes resulted in the deaths of many ordinary citizens, after which Iran, too, resorted to retaliatory missile strikes.

X user (@Skylar_Soul_) posted the viral video on June 16. When this article was written, the post had accumulated more than 100,000 views and was reshared over 1,000 times. (Archive) 

इज़राइल के सैनिक ईरान से रो रो कर रहम की भीख मांग रहे हैं…!😂 pic.twitter.com/CoGwu8Fv3d

— Minal Sultan (@Skylar_Soul_) June 16, 2025

Another X user, @dpsingh1313, posted the same video, which was viewed over 160,000 times at the time this article was written. (Archive)

अंड भक्तों, 😷 pic.twitter.com/HHEcHPuSUw

— Davinder Pal Singh 幸王 دیویندر سنگھ ਦਵਿੰਦਰ ਪਾਲ ਸਿੰ (@dpsingh1313) June 16, 2025

The viral video was also shared by several other X users, including @Deb_livnletliv, @SanjeevCrime, @Ayesha786Majid, @armanofficial00 and @hammehaiindia62. (Archived links: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

Click to view slideshow.

The same video was viral on Facebook with similar claims.

Click to view slideshow.

Fact Check

A reverse image search on one of the key frames from the clip led us to the same video on YouTube posted around the same time, but with better resolution.

 

We noticed that the YouTube version had a clear watermark ‘Veo’ on the bottom right corner. The same watermark can be seen in the viral video as well, but owing to lower resolution, it is faint and not very apparent.

Veo is an artificial intelligence-based video generation tool, launched by Google this year. It allows users to create 8-second-long realistic videos without anatomical abnormalities.

Note that the viral video is precisely 8 seconds long. Moreover, what makes Veo stand out from other video generation models is its ability to integrate audio and dialogue without distortions, which is evident in the viral video.

To be sure, we also ran the video through HIVE’s AI detection tool. According to this, there is an 88% likelihood that the viral video was AI-generated.

Based on these findings, we were able to conclude that the viral video showing an Israeli soldier crying and pleading with Iran to stop the retaliatory strikes against Israel is artificially generated through Google Veo, and not real.

The post Viral video of Israeli soldier pleading Iran for mercy is AI-generated appeared first on Alt News.


This content originally appeared on Alt News and was authored by Prantik Ali.

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U of Tehran’s Dr. Setareh Sadeghi: Netanyahu has underestimated Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/u-of-tehrans-dr-setareh-sadeghi-netanyahu-has-underestimated-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/u-of-tehrans-dr-setareh-sadeghi-netanyahu-has-underestimated-iran/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 23:48:39 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1f26dc2d907c85d073d0669e6e309bb1
This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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Working Hard to Justify Israel’s Unprovoked Attack on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/working-hard-to-justify-israels-unprovoked-attack-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/working-hard-to-justify-israels-unprovoked-attack-on-iran/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 20:02:38 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9046071  

Imagine for a moment that Country A launched an illegal and unprovoked attack on Country B. In any sort of objective world, you might expect media coverage of the episode to go something along the lines of: “Country A Launches Illegal and Unprovoked Attack on Country B.”

Not so in the case of Israel, whose special relationship with the United States means it gets special coverage in the US corporate media. When Israel attacked Iran early last Friday, killing numerous civilians along with military officials and scientists, the press was standing by to present the assault as fundamentally justified—no surprise coming from the outlets that have for more than 20 months refused to describe Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as genocide.

‘Preemptive strike’

AP: Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear sites and kills top generals. Iran retaliates with missile barrages

AP‘s headline (6/18/25) highlights that Israel struck “Iran’s nuclear sites and kills top generals”; the article doesn’t note that Iran says the “overwhelming majority” of the 78 people killed at that point by Israel were civilians (Times of Israel, 6/14/25).

From the get-go, the corporate media narrative was that Israel had targeted Iranian military and nuclear facilities in a “preemptive strike” (ABC, 6/13/25), with civilian casualties presented either as an afterthought or not at all (e.g., AP, 6/18/25). (As the Israeli attack on Iran has continued unabated for the past week in tandem with retaliatory Iranian strikes on Israel, the Iranian civilian death toll has become harder to ignore—as, for example, in the Washington Post’s recent profile of 23-year-old poet Parnia Abbasi, killed along with her family as they slept in their Tehran apartment building.)

On Monday, June 16, the fourth day of the assault, the Associated Press reported that Israeli strikes had “killed at least 224 people since Friday.” This figure appeared in the eighth paragraph of the 34-paragraph article; the first reference to Iranian civilians appeared in paragraph 33, which informed readers that “rights groups” had suggested that the number was a “significant undercount,” and that 197 civilians were thus far among the upwards of 400 dead.

Back in paragraph 8, meanwhile, came the typical implicit validation of Israeli actions:

Israel says its sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, uranium enrichment sites and nuclear scientists, is necessary to prevent its longtime adversary from getting any closer to building an atomic weapon.

That Israel’s “preventive” efforts happened to occur smack in the middle of a US push for a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue has not proved to be a detail that is overly of interest to the US media; nor have corporate outlets found it necessary to dwell too deeply on the matter of the personal convenience of war on Iran for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu—both as a distraction from the genocide in Gaza, and from his domestic embroilment in assorted corruption charges.

In its own coverage, NBC News (6/14/25) highlighted that Netanyahu had “said the operation targeted Iran’s nuclear program and ‘will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.’” Somehow, it is never deemed worth mentioning in such reports that it is not in fact up to Israel—the only state in the region with an (undeclared) nuclear arsenal, and a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—to be policing any perceived nuclear “threat.” Instead, Israeli officials are given ample space, time and again, to present their supposed cause as entirely legitimate, while getting away with murder—not to mention genocide.

‘Potential salvation’

WaPo: Iranian officials project strength but their people decry silence on safety

A Washington Post article (6/16/25) manages to blame the Iranian officials for not keeping their people safe from Israeli missiles.

Its profile of the young poet Abbasi notwithstanding, the Washington Post has been particularly aggressive in toeing the Israeli line. Following Netanyahu’s English-language appeal to Iranians to “stand up” against the “common enemy: the murderous regime that both oppresses you and impoverishes you”—a pretty rich accusation, coming from the man currently presiding over mass murder and all manner of other oppression—Post reporter Yeganeh Torbati (6/14/25) undertook to detail how some Iranians “see potential salvation in Israel’s attack despite risk of a wider war.”

In her dispatch, Torbati explained that in spite of reports of civilian deaths, “ordinary Iranians” had “expressed satisfaction” at Israel’s attacks on Iran’s “oppressive government.” As usual, there was no room for any potentially relevant historical details regarding “oppressive” governance in Iran—like, say, the 1953 CIA-orchestrated coup d’état against the democratically elected Mohammad Mossadegh, which paved the way for the extended rule-by-terror of the torture-happy Iranian shah, whose oppression was aided by manic acquisition of US weaponry.

On Monday, Torbati was back with another report on how, amid Israel’s attacks on Iran, the Iranian population had “lamented the lack of adequate safety instructions and evacuation orders” from its government, “turning to social media for answers.” The article quotes a Tehran resident named Alireza as complaining that “we have nothing, not even a government that would bother giving safety suggestions to people”—although it’s anyone’s guess as to what sort of suggestions the government is supposed to offer given the circumstances. Try not to be sleeping in your apartment when Israel decides to bomb it?

We thus end up with an entire article in a top US newspaper suggesting that the issue at hand is not that Israel is conducting illegal and unprovoked attacks on Iran, but rather that the Iranian government has not publicized proper safety recommendations for dealing with said attacks. At one point, Torbati concedes that “the government did provide some broad safety instructions,” and that “a government spokeswoman, Fatemeh Mohajerani, recommended that Iranians take shelter in metros, mosques and schools.”

Refusing to leave it at that, Torbati goes on to object that “it was unclear why mosques and schools would be safer than other buildings, given that Israel had already targeted residential and other civilian structures”—which again magically transforms the issue into a critique of the Iranian government for lack of clarity, as opposed to a critique of Israel for, you know, committing war crimes.

‘It’s all targeted’

NYT: Israel’s Attack in Iran Echoes Its Strategy Against Hezbollah

To the New York Times (6/15/25), mass assassination of Iranian leaders is a “playbook” and “following the script.”

Which brings us to the New York Times, never one to miss a chance to cheerlead on behalf of Israeli atrocities—like that time in 2009 that the paper’s resident foreign affairs columnist literally advocated for targeting civilians in Gaza (FAIR.org, 1/30/25), invoking Israel’s targeting of civilians in Lebanon in 2006 as a positive precedent. Now, a Times article (6/15/25) headlined “Israel’s Attack in Iran Echoes Its Strategy Against Hezbollah” wonders if another Lebanese precedent might prove successful: “Israel decimated the group’s leadership last fall and degraded its military capabilities. Can the same strategy work against a far more powerful foe?”

After reminiscing about “repeated Israeli attacks on apartment buildings, bunkers and speeding vehicles” in Lebanon in 2024—which produced “more than 15 senior Hezbollah military commanders eliminated in total”—the piece speculates that Israel’s ongoing attacks on Iran and assassinations of top Iranian officers seem “to be following the script from last fall” in Lebanon. Swift confirmation comes from Randa Slim at the Middle East Institute in Washington: “It’s all targeted, the assassination of their senior officials in their homes.”

Never mind that Israel’s activity in Lebanon last fall amounted to straight-up terrorism—or that somehow these “targeted assassinations” managed to kill some 4,000 people in Lebanon between October 2023 and November 2024 alone. In unceasingly providing a platform to justify Israeli aggression and mass civilian slaughter throughout the region, the US corporate media at least appears to be following its own script to a T.


This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Belén Fernández.

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Trump inches toward U.S. war with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/trump-inches-toward-u-s-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/trump-inches-toward-u-s-war-with-iran/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 18:02:08 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=8268fb65b8fdd105d70f242d1b22b2b2
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Prediction with the Main Reasons: The US Will Bomb Iran to Bring about a Regime Change https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/prediction-with-the-main-reasons-the-us-will-bomb-iran-to-bring-about-a-regime-change/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/prediction-with-the-main-reasons-the-us-will-bomb-iran-to-bring-about-a-regime-change/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:10:07 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159176 We’ve seen it repeatedly: You invent a pretext based on deliberate lies, fake news, exaggerations or a false flag operation which serves to construct a story that country or leader X is a threat to “us” which legitimates that we do a ‘preemptive’ strike against that against – obviously invented – threat to eliminate it. […]

The post Prediction with the Main Reasons: The US Will Bomb Iran to Bring about a Regime Change first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

We’ve seen it repeatedly: You invent a pretext based on deliberate lies, fake news, exaggerations or a false flag operation which serves to construct a story that country or leader X is a threat to “us” which legitimates that we do a ‘preemptive’ strike against that against – obviously invented – threat to eliminate it.

Mainstream media’s task is to propagate the ploy, not to ask questions or reveal the lie.

Take Serbia’s ‘genocide’ in Kosovo, Afghanistan’s responsibility for 9/11, Saddam’s possession of nukes in Iraq, Assad’s use of chemical weapons against the Syrians, Russia’s planning to occupy and administer not only Ukraine but also a series of European countries thereafter, Hamas’ attack on Israel – that Israel knew everything about before it happened – and now you have the blatant lie about Iran’s being just about to become a nuclear power.

Basic facts about Iran that we are not hearing

Just a few facts you almost never hear but which are extremely important no matter what you think of the Iranian theocracy: It was the US/CIA and UK that made a regime-change in 1953 that deposed the democratically elected Dr. Mossadegh. The US installed the Shah – at the time the most ruthless and militarist leader in the world, and gave him nuclear technology.

Since 1979, when the Iranian revolution sent him running and occupied the US Embassy in Tehran, the US has done nothing – nothing – but harass Iran and its 90 million innocent Iranian citizens with the hardest sanctions thinkable (that have destroyed the middle class that could, if any, have changed the country’s leadership). The US and other NATO countries have systematically been building up Israel militarily – knowing full well that Netanyahu’s 30-year-old pathological dream is to eliminate Iran.

The leading actors in this drama are therefore “USrael” and not Iran.

Furthermore, Iran does not have nuclear weapons; Israel has – estimates state up to 400. Iran is a member of the NPT, the Non-Proliferation Treaty; Israel is not. Iran has been under constant inspection by the IAEA, but Israel has never accepted that. Around 2003, the present Supreme Leader, Khamenei, issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons, which is considered by some to be consistent with Islamic tradition.

More recently, in 2015, the JCPOA Agreement was concluded, which was rightly considered a major diplomatic victory for all involved parties. It led Iran to significantly decrease its uranium enrichment. Iran kept itself within the limits of that agreement, but the boastful, grumpy Donald Trump cancelled the US’ participation in 2018, and Iran has since used its enrichment as a bargaining chip while never getting near the level that would permit it to produce a nuclear weapon. In March, Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence, confirmed that there was no indication that Iran was nearing the threshold. On June 17, Trump said that he did not care about what she said; he knew that Iran was ‘very close.’ More information on these matters can be found in my article from yesterday, available here.

This will do as a broader background to the prediction in the headline. The West’s stockpile of lies, misinformation and media deception seems to me to be way more fateful than any Iranian military fact or activity.

Specific reasons for the prediction and the laws of war

Now to the more specific reasons, which point in one direction, only: A larger war on Iran with aim of changing the Iranian regime.

According to media reports, Netanyahu had told Trump that Israel could kill the Supreme Leader, and Trump said he would not accept that. Israel has bombed civilian areas and the Iranian IRIB broadcasting complex in Iran, and Israeli agents have blown up cars inside Iran. None of that would be necessary to destroy nuclear research facilities. Trump left the G7 meeting early and stated that he was not working on a ceasefire between Iran and Israel but working on an “end, a real end,” and he has called for Iranian “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and demanded that Tehran’s population leave the city.

He also talked about something bigger to come and that Iran better accept his demands before there would be nothing left of it. In the afternoon, US time today, he had a meeting in the White House Situation Room with his national security team. He talks about knowing exactly where the Supreme Leader is hiding, but that he has no plans to kill him – “at least not now.” (I leave aside at this point what to think about these international law-violating, fascist statements. Trump would have no qualms about killing Iranian top leaders, remember the 2020 liquidation of Qassem Soleimani).

There are, while I write this, movements of huge US and British naval vessels to the region and talk about B52’s delivering bunker busters.

There is no doubt that the Trump Regime gave the green light to the Netanyahu Regime’s unprovoked and fake-preemptive attack on Iran. Trump said that he knew “everything” about it well in advance. This, in my view, means that he has also faced the possibility that the US will be drawn in if the Iranian response over time would be too hard for Israel – already in war with several neighbouring states – to handle alone.

This time, Iran has responded more forcefully than before, and it probably sees the USraeli threat as existential. If Iran continues to respond to Israeli attacks, this would drag in the US – and sooner rather than later. Trump would simply have no choice. He also knows that NATO allies in Europe will remain supportive of both him and Netanyahu if he goes down that slippery slope: A repetition of the Iraq war.

Some may object here that Trump is just bluffing. First, bluffing whom? If Iran perceives this as a threat to its very existence, it is, of course, not going to unconditionally surrender. It will fight to the last Iranian, and the idea that the Iranians would stand along the roads when the US and Israeli forces roll into Tehran is as delusional as it was in the case of Iraq. (After one day in Baghdad in 2002, I understood that there would be no one, no matter what they thought of Saddam).

No, there is another dynamic that is both much more powerful and relevant: the escalation of conflicts and violence, up to the outbreak of wars, pretty much follows its own dynamics and laws. If you’ve said “A” you have to move on and say “B” and do tit-for-tat – “C”… to the end of the alphabet, or the world.

De-escalation is extremely difficult, but phoney/pious statesmen love to advocate de-escalation because they have nothing else to suggest and because they themselves caused the escalation in the first place by pumping in weapons, supporting one side and demonise the other in a conflict and have no clue about conflict-resolution, mediation, peace-making, reconciliation and that sort of – to them totally irrelevant – professional knowledge. Simply put, they are conflict and peace illiterates.

Given what has already happened, I do not have the imagination to see how Trump and Netanyahu can now back down from their words and deeds without losing face, and that is not exactly what they are known for. They will soon be guided less by their own decisions than by the laws of militarism, escalation and eventually full warfare: warfare for regime-change in Iran.

De-nuclearise Israel and have both under NPT and IAEA

To some extent, the nuclear issue is a pretext. To some extent, it is a real issue too. The tragedy is that it is impossible for anyone to destroy nuclear technology facilities and equipment, perhaps 100 meters down in massive mountains. Secondly, if they could succeed, Iran is capable of re-establishing its capacity and will likely have become convinced by the USrael policies that it has, against its will, to acquire nuclear weapons.

Since Israel has nuclear weapons and thereby violates all the non-binding UN resolutions about the Middle East as a zone free of weapons of mass destruction, the simple, effective solution would be for the international community to deprive Israel of its nuclear weapons and place both countries in the NPT and under IAEA surveillance. The West’s stupid insistence that Israel shall have nuclear weapons while Iran shall not is simply illogical, conflict- and war-promoting as well as morally unsustainable and discriminatory.

The dissolution of the messianic West: Evil, exceptionalism, escalation and eschatology

None of these decision-makers is burdened with ethics, long-term thinking or analyses of the consequences of their actions. They are driven by emotions, groupthink, lack of basic security knowledge, hubris, hate (of an Iran they do not know as anything but ‘mullahs’), of self-aggrandisement and a belief that they are exceptionalist. After all, the US and Israel are the two exceptionalist states par excellence. They see themselves as standing above the laws, ethics, and norms that the rest of the world feels obliged to respect at least to some extent.

In their delusional omnipotence, they seem to accept a kind of modern-day eschatological paradigm supplemented with the catharsis that the use of nuclear weapons may seem to promise: The birth of a new world in which Evil – that of the ‘others’ has been eradicated. That that evil is merely a psycho-political projection of their own evil system, such as militarism, and personalities, is of course, an unthinkable thought. However, it is an end-time view that is deeply embedded in Western Christian and Jewish social cosmology, which probably steers more in situations such as this than any rational thought, analysis, or prudent statesmanship.

Macro-historically, it belongs to a civilisation, an Empire, in rapid decline, decay and dissolution. And at the micro-level, it would be foolish to underestimate Trump’s and Netanyahu’s messianic zeal in times of their systems’ decay. I fear weapons, yes. But I fear these types of people more.

The post Prediction with the Main Reasons: The US Will Bomb Iran to Bring about a Regime Change first appeared on Dissident Voice.


This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Jan Oberg.

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Mosab Abu Toha: As Attention Shifts to Iran, Israel Ramps Up Killings & Annexation in Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/mosab-abu-toha-as-attention-shifts-to-iran-israel-ramps-up-killings-annexation-in-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/mosab-abu-toha-as-attention-shifts-to-iran-israel-ramps-up-killings-annexation-in-gaza/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:45:51 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=7328fa94ef2ecb11d5ed11a1554b7a83
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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"A Moment of Immense Danger": U.S. Inches Toward Direct Involvement in Israel’s War with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/a-moment-of-immense-danger-u-s-inches-toward-direct-involvement-in-israels-war-with-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/a-moment-of-immense-danger-u-s-inches-toward-direct-involvement-in-israels-war-with-iran-2/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:44:02 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=99fc1a0ad6a18c81de35dba19ccb9aa1
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Tehran Professor Reports from Iran State TV Building Bombed by Israel as Trump Threatens Khamenei https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/tehran-professor-reports-from-iran-state-tv-building-bombed-by-israel-as-trump-threatens-khamenei-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/tehran-professor-reports-from-iran-state-tv-building-bombed-by-israel-as-trump-threatens-khamenei-2/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:42:10 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=920489b8640880ae87fd4db7f69724fd
This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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Israel Attacks Iran: The Turning of the Tables https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/israel-attacks-iran-the-turning-of-the-tables/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/israel-attacks-iran-the-turning-of-the-tables/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:40:57 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159178 It all started in the early morning hours of 13 June 2025, with what Israel calls “Operation Rising Lion”. Israel’s Air Force launched dozens of air strikes against Iran, targeting its nuclear [energy] program. According to BBC, in Iran’s own words, this is the biggest assault on Iran’s territory since the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988. […]

The post Israel Attacks Iran: The Turning of the Tables first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

It all started in the early morning hours of 13 June 2025, with what Israel calls “Operation Rising Lion”. Israel’s Air Force launched dozens of air strikes against Iran, targeting its nuclear [energy] program. According to BBC, in Iran’s own words, this is the biggest assault on Iran’s territory since the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988.

Iran has no nuclear weapons program, as confirmed multiple times by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), belonging to the UN system. However, after a 2024 inspection, the IAEA apparently reported enrichment to about 60%. This is not enough to make an atomic bomb, requiring at least 90%.

But for Israel which has a nuclear warheads arsenal of several hundred, this justified an unprecedented attack on Iran – a clear declaration of war. Israel’s nuclear bomb stockpile is outside of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement, all quietly tolerated by the west led by the United States.

Only with the explicit backing of the White House, Israel would dare such an assault on a country with a military power that could by far exceed that of Israel.

As these lines are written, the situation on the Israel-Iran war is constantly changing.

The latest state of affairs is that within the last 48 hours the tables have turned by 180 degrees.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ – 13 June 2025), on Monday, 9 June 2025, Prime Minister Netanyahu raised the possibility of strikes against Iran in a phone conversation with President Trump, confirmed by two U.S. officials. Trump responded that he would like to see diplomacy run its course before turning to military options. In an alert to the world, and short-circuiting diplomacy, on Wednesday 11 June, the U.S. pulled some non-essential personnel out of the region in case of an attack.

On Thursday, before the Israeli strike, Trump said he would not describe an attack as imminent, “but it is something that could very well happen.” Clearly, Trump has given Israel green light for an assault, before diplomacy could run its course. Thereby he was betraying not only Iran, but the entire Middle East, or better called Western Asia, but also the entire world, since by doing so he gave Israel carte blanche to potentially start WWIII.

Since Israel’s “surprise” air raid in the darkest early morning hours of Thursday, 13 June, the situation has changed dramatically. Iran has launched hundreds of high-speed warheads most of which penetrated unharmed Israel’s Anti-Ballistic Missile systems. The Iranian missiles could not be stopped by the US THAAD missile defense. See this.

Watch on X.

See also this from Fox News – 14 June 2025:

Watch on X.

Other dramatic headlines point to “All of Israel is under fire!” Blasts and smoke as Iran launches hundreds of missiles | ITV NEWS, as “Iran launched hundreds of missiles towards Israel; only few were intercepted.” Question: Does Iran have enough missiles and rockets to overwhelm and outlast Israel? The next 72 hours will be crucial.

Iranian missiles have hit key locations in Tel Aviv and other major cities in Israel, also targeting Israeli nuclear arsenal and military sites, leaving untold casualties and massive destruction of infrastructure. To what extent Israel’s nuclear stockpiles were affected, may never be known.

President Putin, while supporting Iran’s defense, has called on both parties to instantly stop aggressions.

He offered Russia’s good services for mediation. Once upon a time, when Switzerland was still neutral, Bern could have offered Switzerland’s diplomacy to mediate for Peace. No longer, as Switzerland drifts towards NATO, an enemy of Iran – and everything not considered the west.

Mr. Putin most likely warned President Trump to make sure Israel does not retaliate Iran’s response with nuclear weapons. If not Trump, then his Pentagon advisors, must know and understand what this means.

At the behest of Israel, Trump had started negotiations with Iran to reduce their enrichment program to zero, i.e. destroy their enriched uranium which Iran planned to use for civilian purposes. He warned or blackmailed Iran – you agree, or else – which meant you will be assaulted. He gave Iran five days to respond, but Israel launched her attack after day three, certainly not without Trump’s agreement, which meant a flagrant betrayal by the US on Iran and the world.

President Trump entered his second term on 20 January 2025 as a so-called “Peace President,” but resulted instead as a war-President; as one of the biggest deceptions not only for US citizens, but for the world at large.

Instead of making good on his promise, stopping the horrendous bloodshed and genocide caused by Israel in Gaza and now also in the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, Trump supports Netanyahu with more weapons to continue his ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza and in all of Palestine.

In the proxy war Ukraine-Russia, Trump is far from reaching an agreement. After this unprecedented US-supported assault by Israel on Iran – a Peace Agreement with Russia has slipped away farther than ever.

Israel also targeted military facilities in Teheran, as well as throughout Iran, killing what is reported dozens high-ranking military officers, including Iran’s top two commanders.

Iran confirmed that the attacks killed Major General Hossein Salami, commander of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Major General Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, along with several nuclear scientists. Iran’s envoy to the UN, Amir-Saeid Iravani, stated that 78 people were killed and 320 others injured.

This totally illegal, devastating large-scale attack pushed the Middle East into a new war, if not into a deep abyss. Images on Iranian state television said the Natanz site in central Iran, one of the country’s two main nuclear [energy] plants, was struck around 4.15 AM on Thursday, 13 June.

Trump hails Israel’s airstrike (RT 13 June 2025), as “excellent” and warned that there is “more to come.” He warns Iran, “either make the nuclear deal (zero uranium enrichment) or face slaughter” – see this US President Donald Trump has called Israel’s strike on Iran “excellent” and warned that there is “more to come”.

On the other hand, President Putin (RT – 13 June 25) holds phone conversations with Israeli’s PM and the Iranian President. Mr. Putin condemned the Israeli attack and extended his condolences to Iran, according to the Kremlin press service.

Some of Iran’s nuclear facilities are 800-plus meters below the ground and cannot be reached by Israel’s missiles. It is not clear how much of Iran’s nuclear energy program has been destroyed. It may never be known.

Trump’s green-lighting Israel’s attack, makes him complicit in this new Israel-initiated Middle East conflict, that might possibly degenerate into a WWIII scenario.

The Financial Times (FT – 13 June 2025) reports that President Trump warned Teheran on his Truth Social Platform, that the next “already planned attacks” on Iran would be “even more brutal,” adding that “Iran must make a deal [on its nuclear program], before there is nothing left.” “No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he wrote. Yes, the deal-maker has spoken again.

Trump added that the US “makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come — and they know how to use it.” The usual megalo-ego-centric rhetoric which is typically not substantiated, and ever less believable, but ever more provoking a sad smile.

Mr. Trump’s notion of negotiations refers to the recent US-imposed reduction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program to zero, when in earlier accords – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated in 2013 to 2015 with the US Obama Administration and their western allies plus China and Russia, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium to no more than 5%. For 15 years, Iran agreed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67% and not to build heavy water facilities. They complied with the 15-year condition.

Nevertheless, the Israeli Air Force barrage on Iran follows a months-long stand-off over Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran insists and has always done so, its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian purposes, mostly nuclear energy. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is closely following Iran’s nuclear program and has never found any evidence that Iran was attempting to build an atomic bomb.

Please NOTE and be reminded that Israel has hundreds of nuclear warheads, outside of the Non-Proliferation Agreement, tolerated by the west, led by the US of A.

The IAEA, like most UN agencies, is following politically the “mandate” of the west. So, it does perhaps not come as a surprise that on Thursday, 12 June, the day before the Israeli attack on Iran, the agency declared that Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, the first such censure in two decades. It may have been the ultimate justification for Israel’s devastating air raid.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said,

Israel “Should expect a severe punishment. The Zionist regime, through this crime, has created a bitter and painful fate for itself — one it will certainly face,” he said. “With God’s permission, the powerful hands of the Islamic republic’s armed forces will not leave it unpunished.”

For more details see FT 13 June 2025

This new Middle Eastern war is in a constant state of change, possibly escalating and putting the world in danger, once more the works of the Zionist elite, attempting to control the globe, and achieving Greater Israel which would ideally expand their current map to also include Iran.

Peace in the Middle East or better Western Asia would be a great step towards world Peace – an engine for socioeconomic prosperity.

  • First published on Global Research. You may read it here.
  • The post Israel Attacks Iran: The Turning of the Tables first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Peter Koenig.

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    Mosab Abu Toha: As Attention Shifts to Iran, Israel Ramps Up Killings, Starvation & Annexation in Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/mosab-abu-toha-as-attention-shifts-to-iran-israel-ramps-up-killings-starvation-annexation-in-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/mosab-abu-toha-as-attention-shifts-to-iran-israel-ramps-up-killings-starvation-annexation-in-gaza/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 12:35:53 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=a7958d3630378689bd1560d7f34b1d38 Seg mosab gaza

    As Israel’s attack on Iran overshadows Israel’s ongoing assault on the region, we speak with Pulitzer Prize-winning Palestinian poet Mosab Abu Toha on the deepening crisis in his home of the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of starving, desperate civilians have been killed and wounded while attempting to access critical aid. Witnesses have described massacres committed by Israeli soldiers and U.S. security contractors at U.S.- and Israeli-backed aid sites that are the only officially sanctioned sources of food, water and medicine entering the Gaza Strip. “People have to go to these so-called distribution sites, and they know they will be killed,” says Abu Toha. “Israel is not letting anyone survive, not in Gaza, not in Iran, not in Syria, not in Lebanon.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/mosab-abu-toha-as-attention-shifts-to-iran-israel-ramps-up-killings-starvation-annexation-in-gaza/feed/ 0 539656
    “A Moment of Immense Danger”: U.S. Inches Toward Direct Involvement in Israel’s War with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/a-moment-of-immense-danger-u-s-inches-toward-direct-involvement-in-israels-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/a-moment-of-immense-danger-u-s-inches-toward-direct-involvement-in-israels-war-with-iran/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 12:25:06 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=407b268868b89c1a4ffdc9ab686ed302 Guest akbar

    “We’re at a moment of immense danger,” warns HuffPost correspondent Akbar Shahid Ahmed, as the Trump administration appears increasingly amenable to escalating conflict with Iran. Ahmed shares what we know about the U.S. military buildup and the “magical thinking” of regime change rhetoric among Washington, D.C., policymakers that could turn into a “hugely devastating” war with Iran. Above all, says Ahmed, Trump’s boasts about being an antiwar leader have not come true: “We haven’t seen him solve any of the wars that he said he would address.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Tehran Professor Reports from Iran State TV Building Bombed by Israel as Trump Threatens Khamenei https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/tehran-professor-reports-from-iran-state-tv-building-bombed-by-israel-as-trump-threatens-khamenei/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/tehran-professor-reports-from-iran-state-tv-building-bombed-by-israel-as-trump-threatens-khamenei/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 12:14:00 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=c452fcb78519be54eae9425ef11dbb1f Trumpkhamenei

    Donald Trump has threatened to directly target Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and may be moving closer to ordering U.S. airstrikes on Iran. Meanwhile, Khamenei has rejected Trump’s calls for “unconditional surrender,” warning that Iran will meet any U.S. military action in Iran with “irreparable harm.” In Tehran, many civilians have already evacuated after multiple Israeli strikes killed hundreds. “There’s nothing sophisticated about slaughtering everyone in an apartment building to murder one or two people,” says Mohammad Marandi about the strikes. Marandi, who has remained in Tehran, was part of the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in 2015. He calls Trump’s threat “an act of terror” but emphasizes that U.S. and Israeli vilification of Iran has “united the country more than ever before.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/tehran-professor-reports-from-iran-state-tv-building-bombed-by-israel-as-trump-threatens-khamenei/feed/ 0 539660
    Israel-Iran war ‘more dangerous than we imagine’, says Middle East Eye editor https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/israel-iran-war-more-dangerous-than-we-imagine-says-middle-east-eye-editor/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/israel-iran-war-more-dangerous-than-we-imagine-says-middle-east-eye-editor/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 05:53:34 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116320 Pacific Media Watch

    The Big Picture Podcast host, New Zealand-Egyptian journalist and author Mohamed Hassan, interviews Middle East Eye editor-in-chief David Hearst about the rapidly unfolding war between Israel and Iran, why the West supports it, and what it threatens to unleash on the global order.

    What does Israel really want to achieve, what options does Iran have to deescalate, and will the United States stop the war, or join it as is being hinted?

    Hearst says the war is “more dangerous than we imagine” and notes that while most Western leadership still backs Israel, there has been a strong shift in world public opinion against Tel Aviv.

    • READ MORE: Israel-Iran attacks continue; Trump demands unconditional surrender
    • Iran war: from the Middle East to America, history shows you cannot assassinate your way to peace
    • Attack on Iran’s state media – Israel bombs IRIB building in new war crime
    • Why Israel’s ‘humane’ propaganda is such a sinister facade
    • Other Israeli war on Iran reports

    He says Israel has lost most of the world’s support, most of the Global South, most African states, Brazil, South Africa, China and Russia.

    Hearst says the world is witnessing the “cynical tailend of the colonial era” among Western states.


    The era of peace is over.             Video: Middle East Eye

    Iran ‘unlikely to surrender’
    Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says Iran is unlikely to “surrender to American terms” and that there is a risk the war on Iran could “bring the entire region down”.

    Vaez told Al Jazeera in an interview that US President Donald Trump “provided the green light for Israel to attack Iran” just two days before the president’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, was due to meet with the Iranians in the Oman capital of Muscat.

    Imagine viewing, from the Iranian perspective, Trump giving the go-ahead for the attack while at the same time saying that diplomacy with Tehran was still ongoing, Vaez said.

    Now Trump “is asking for Iranian surrender” on his Truth Social platform, he said.

    “I think the only thing that is more dangerous than suffering from Israeli and American bombs is actually surrendering to American terms,” Vaez said.

    “Because if Iran surrenders on the nuclear issue and on the demands of President Trump, there is no end to the slippery slope, which would eventually result in regime collapse and capitulation anyway.”

    pic.twitter.com/QcySkOWWGN

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 17, 2025

    Most Americans oppose US involvement
    Meanwhile, a new survey has reported that most Americans oppose US military involvement in the conflict.

    The survey by YouGov showed that some 60 percent of Americans surveyed thought the US military should not get involved in the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran.

    Only 16 percent favoured US involvement, while 24 percent said they were not sure.

    Among the Democrats, those who opposed US intervention were at 65 percent, and among the Republicans, it was 53 percent. Some 61 percent of independents opposed the move.

    The survey also showed that half of Americans viewed Iran as an enemy of the US, while 25 percent said it was “unfriendly”.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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    Trump (Like Biden) is Simply Evil https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/trump-like-biden-is-simply-evil/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/trump-like-biden-is-simply-evil/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 01:48:56 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159164 On June 17, Trump demanded the unconditional surrender of Ayatollah Khamenei, and said “Our patience is wearing thin.” On June 16, Trump posted to his Truth Social and to Facebook, this warning for everyone in Tehran to evacuate the City: He has said there that America is in this war not to invade Iran but […]

    The post Trump (Like Biden) is Simply Evil first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    On June 17, Trump demanded the unconditional surrender of Ayatollah Khamenei, and said “Our patience is wearing thin.”

    On June 16, Trump posted to his Truth Social and to Facebook, this warning for everyone in Tehran to evacuate the City:

    He has said there that America is in this war not to invade Iran but to protect Israel. However if Iran will have any success, then Americans, and not ONLY Israelis, will be bombing Iran. (And, of course, virtually all of Israel’s weapons do already come from America.)

    The U.S. Government, and not ONLY Israel’s, actually invaded Iran on June 13 and had co-planned that aggression together.

    So, this invasion of Iran IS the policy of the U.S. Government, and not (as the propaganda describes it) ONLY the policy of Israel’s Government.

    And here was Trump’s Truth Social post on that day:

    In that post, he unintentionally made clear that he never actually “negotiated” with Iran; he ORDERED Iran to do Netanyahu’s bidding. And, NOW, he and Netanyahu intend to forcibly (militarily) regime-change Iran, simply because Iran refused to comply with Netanyahu’s (and Trump’s, and Biden’s) DEMAND (that Iran be subordinated to Israel).

    This is now heading into WW3. On June 16, the excellent news-site, which analyzes international-policy issues of protecting Russia from the U.S. empire’s constant aggressions to weaken or replace Russia’s Government, en.topcor.ru/news/, headlined “CRINK Air Force Could Help Iran Stand Up to Israel,” and here was its grim but entirely realistic analysis:

    The military defeat of Iran, if it also leads to the beginning of the process of disintegration of the Islamic Republic into a number of quasi-states, will become the gravest geopolitical defeat [that the] informal anti-Western alliance CRINK led by Russia and China [have faced]. The ally [member, actually: Iran is the “I” in “CRINK”] must be saved, but how, exactly?

    At the moment, the war between Israel and Iran is characterized by a remote exchange of air strikes using aircraft, ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones, as well as sabotage and terrorist attacks by Israeli special services in the Iranian rear.

    Given that they have no common border and the US’s stated non-interference, large-scale ground operations are out of the question, so sending international brigades of Russian, North Korean or Chinese volunteers to help the Persians makes no sense. However, Tehran would certainly not refuse help in the fight against Israeli aviation, so it is worth remembering that something similar has already happened in modern history.

    “Flying Tigers”

    Let us recall that even before the start of World War II, a war between the Chinese Republic and the Japanese Empire that had attacked it had already begun in the European theater of operations in Southeast Asia on July 7, 1937. At the same time, the Japanese were taking out the poorly prepared Chinese aviation with one hand. However, in that historical period, China enjoyed support not only from the USSR, but also from the USA.

    Retired US Air Force Major Claire Lee Chennault, sent there as a military adviser, proposed creating a special air unit in which the pilots would be American volunteers flying American planes. And that was done. President Roosevelt officially allowed US Air Force pilots to take leave and fight on a purely volunteer basis on the side of China against Japan.

    A special aviation unit called the Flying Tigers was then created, consisting of three fighter squadrons flying American aircraft purchased under Lend-Lease. Its pilots signed a contract with the Chinese private firm CAMCO (Central Aircraft Manufacturing Company), under the terms of which they received $500 for each enemy aircraft destroyed.

    American volunteers successfully fought on the side of the Chinese Republic until 1942, after which the Flying Tigers were withdrawn from the Chinese Air Force and included in the 23rd Fighter Group of the 10th Air Force of the US Army, and in 1943 it was transformed into the 14th Air Force of the US Army, consisting of 60 bombers and more than 100 fighters. Their commander, Claire Lee Chennault, became a general.

    Legion “Condor”

    Around the same time, the Condor Legion, created in Nazi Germany to help the future Franco regime in Spain, was operating in the European theatre of military operations. The number of this “volunteer” unit was relatively small, reaching 5,5 thousand people.

    However, in the Third Reich, Condor was seen as a training ground for personnel, a testing ground for modern weapons, and a source of up-to-date combat experience. In addition to four bomber squadrons and four fighter squadrons, the legion included anti-aircraft and anti-tank defense units, an armored group of four battalions, transport sections, anti-tank artillery, and flamethrower units.

    During the Spanish Civil War, the German army trained its best future aces and tested the latest aircraft that later fought in World War II. The Europeans intend to do something similar today, sending a so-called fighter coalition to Ukraine to help the Zelensky regime, which will protect Kyiv and the right bank from Russian missile and air strikes.

    CRINK Air Army?

    Returning to the topic of Iran, one must ask why, in fact, Russia, the DPRK and China should be interested in Tehran not losing and not following the path of Syria, which lost its sovereignty and turned into a terrorist enclave?

    Our country needs Iran as a friendly partner, covering the southern flank and providing access to the Indian Ocean through the Caspian Sea. The oil fields that Israel threatens to bomb already belong to Beijing, which has invested huge amounts of money in the Iranian oil and gas sector. And for Pyongyang, Tehran has long been a technological partner in the development and production of various weapons.

    What could the CRINK alliance actually do to help its ally, who has been dealt a vile blow and is being prepared to be destroyed by “Western partners” at the hands of Israel? Based on the above, there are two possible paths.

    The first is the creation of an international volunteer unit of Russian, North Korean and Chinese “vacationers” who would receive modern fighters and air defense systems purchased by Iran under Lend-Lease and would go to gain real combat experience in air battles against the ultra-modern Israeli aviation.

    Bearing in mind that the Russian Federation is facing a direct conflict with NATO, which has placed its bets on aviation, the DPRK has South Korea right next door, and the AUKUS alliance has already been created against China and a military operation against Taiwan is looming, such relevant experience in air combat would be, to put it mildly, not superfluous. Taking it into account, the Russian and Chinese defense industries could appropriately modify their aircraft and create a center for joint training of pilots from Iran, the DPRK, the Russian Federation and China.

    The second path is a little less demonstrative and involves the creation of a hypothetical aviation PMC, for the needs of which Tehran could buy modern aircraft from Russia and China and hire vacationing pilots from the Russian Federation, China and, possibly, North Korea, who would be ready to cover Iran from Israeli air strikes.

    There are options, if there is a desire.

    All of the propaganda in The West PRESUMES that The West has decency and international law on its side and that all OTHER countries are inferior to it — less good, less decent, than are the U.S.-and-allied nations. The reality is the exact opposite.

    For example, the CIA-edited and written Wikipedia (which blacklists — blocks from linking to — sites that aren’t CIA-approved) article on “CRINK” redirects the reader to their article “Axis of Upheaval”, which opens:

    “Axis of Upheaval” is a term coined in 2024 by Center for a New American Security foreign policy analysts Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor and used by many foreign policy analysts,[1][2][3] military officials,[4][5] and international groups[6] to describe the growing anti-Western collaboration between Russia under Vladimir Putin, Iran, China, and North Korea beginning in the early 2020s. It has also been called the “axis of autocracies“,[7][8][9] “quartet of chaos“,[10][11][12] the “deadly quartet“[4] or “CRINK“.[13][a]

    The loose alliance generally represented itself in diplomatic addresses and public statements as an “anti-hegemony” and “anti-imperialist” coalition with intentions to challenge what it deemed to be a Western-dominated global order to reshape international relations into a multipolar order according to their shared interests. While not a formal bloc, these nations have increasingly coordinated their economic, military, and diplomatic efforts, making strong efforts to aid each other to undermine Western influence.[1]

    Central to its opening paragraph is the Center for a New American Security (CNAS); and, as is made clear at one of the CIA’s NON-approved sites, the “Militarist Monitor”, their article “Center for a New American Security” (which thus is not used as a source by Wikipedia) makes clear that CNAS is totally neoconservative (a marketing-arm of the U.S. weapons-manufacturing industry), but even that site (MM) says nothing about who funds it. Another CIA-banned site, “WSWS”, has a far more comprehensive article about CNAS, titled “Democratic think tank plots war against Russia and China: What is the Center for a New American Security?”, and it makes explicit that CNAS’s main donors are “Defense contractors” (which sell ONLY to the U.S. Government and its allies) and secondarily “High tech” (which sell both to those Governments and to the public). In other words: the CIA represents the billionaires who are heavily invested in those two industries — as well as in the ‘news’-media (such as Wikipedia) that propagandize for America’s armaments companies in their ‘news’, editorials, and ads. (For example: even if a pharmaceutical company is simply advertising in these billionaires’ ‘news’-media, it is thereby funding the necon operation.) In 1922, Walter Lippmann invented the phrase “manufacture of consent” to refer to this then-new type of ‘democracy’; but it became big-time only after Truman started the Cold War and the U.S. global-hegemonic empire, on 25 July 1945.

    The hegemonic (or “hegemoniacal”) global empire that U.S. President Truman started on 25 July 1945, needs now, finally, to be defeated decisively. This means without reaching the stage of a nuclear war against Russia, because that could end ONLY in the defeat of both sides and the end of all human civilization. However, I am personally inclined to think that The West have become SO desperate to rule the entire world, so that Russia — and perhaps all of the CRINK — need now to announce publicly that they will NOT allow Iran to be defeated, and that this means that they ARE willing to go nuclear against America and Israel, in order to PREVENT Iran’s defeat — if that’s what would be needed in order to PREVENT the U.S. from providing such backup to Israel’s invasion of Iran.

    Trump (like Biden) never planned for that possibility. If there is to be a WW3, then the most evil empire in all of history, America’s empire, must be prevented from starting it (e.g., by extending Israel’s war against Iran into becoming fully a U.S.-Israel invasion of Iran). It must instead be started by their main targets — CRINK — if it MUST start, at all. The initiator of a war (such as Israel and the U.S. are, in regard to their joint war against Iran) always has the advantage of surprise (such as on June 13th), and thus the higher likelihood of eliminating the other side’s central command (as Israel has largely done). That way (by CRINK’s joining with Iran on this war), if there will be any future afterwards, it WON’T be dominated by the world’s most evil nations — the U.S.-empire nations. Planning for a post-WW3 world has now become important, because of Trump’s commitment now of greatly increased U.S. backup of Israel’s war to conquer Iran. Post-WW3 would be hell in any case, but simply allowing the U.S.-Israel-UK empire to take the entire world would LIKEWISE be hell. And that’s what we all are now heading toward.

    The post Trump (Like Biden) is Simply Evil first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Eric Zuesse.

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    Iran war: from the Middle East to America, history shows you cannot assassinate your way to peace https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/iran-war-from-the-middle-east-to-america-history-shows-you-cannot-assassinate-your-way-to-peace/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/18/iran-war-from-the-middle-east-to-america-history-shows-you-cannot-assassinate-your-way-to-peace/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 00:10:48 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116311 ANALYSIS: By Matt Fitzpatrick, Flinders University

    In the late 1960s, the prevailing opinion among Israeli Shin Bet intelligence officers was that the key to defeating the Palestinian Liberation Organisation was to assassinate its then-leader Yasser Arafat.

    The elimination of Arafat, the Shin Bet commander Yehuda Arbel wrote in his diary, was “a precondition to finding a solution to the Palestinian problem.”

    For other, even more radical Israelis — such as the ultra-nationalist assassin Yigal Amir — the answer lay elsewhere. They sought the assassination of Israeli leaders such as Yitzak Rabin who wanted peace with the Palestinians.

    • READ MORE: Iran fires missiles at Israel; Trump claims ‘total control of Iran skies’
    • Attack on Iran’s state media – Israel bombs IRIB building in new war crime
    • Why Israel’s ‘humane’ propaganda is such a sinister facade
    • Other Israeli war on Iran reports

    Despite Rabin’s long personal history as a famed and often ruthless military commander in the 1948 and 1967 Arab-Israeli Wars, Amir stalked and shot Rabin dead in 1995. He believed Rabin had betrayed Israel by signing the Oslo Accords peace deal with Arafat.

    Nothing has changed. Listen to how Yasser Arafat described the media and how they refused to comdemn Israeli war crimes. pic.twitter.com/BNbjp6ZEww

    — Unfiltered Muslim (@muslimbants) November 9, 2023

    It has been 20 years since Arafat died as possibly the victim of polonium poisoning, and 30 years after the shooting of Rabin. Peace between Israelis and the Palestinians has never been further away.

    What Amnesty International and a United Nations Special Committee have called genocidal attacks on Palestinians in Gaza have spilled over into Israeli attacks on the prominent leaders of its enemies in Lebanon and, most recently, Iran.

    Since its attacks on Iran began on Friday, Israel has killed numerous military and intelligence leaders, including Iran’s intelligence chief, Mohammad Kazemi; the chief of the armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri; and the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami. At least nine Iranian nuclear scientists have also been killed.

    Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly said:

    We got their chief intelligence officer and his deputy in Tehran.

    Iran, predictably, has responded with deadly missile attacks on Israel.

    Far from having solved the issue of Middle East peace, assassinations continue to pour oil on the flames.

    A long history of extrajudicial killings
    Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman’s book Rise and Kill First argues assassinations have long sat at the heart of Israeli politics.

    In the past 75 years, there have been more than 2700 assassination operations undertaken by Israel. These have, in Bergman’s words, attempted to “stop history” and bypass “statesmanship and political discourse”.

    This normalisation of assassinations has been codified in the Israeli expression of “mowing the grass”. This is, as historian Nadim Rouhana has shown, a metaphor for a politics of constant assassination.

    Enemy “leadership and military facilities must regularly be hit in order to keep them weak”.

    The point is not to solve the underlying political questions at issue. Instead, this approach aims to sow fear, dissent and confusion among enemies.

    Thousands of assassination operations have not, however, proved sufficient to resolve the long-running conflict between Israel, its neighbours and the Palestinians. The tactic itself is surely overdue for retirement.

    Targeted assassinations elsewhere
    Israel has been far from alone in this strategy of assassination and killing.

    Former US President Barack Obama oversaw the extrajudicial killing of Osama Bin Laden, for instance.

    After what Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch denounced as a flawed trial, former US President George W. Bush welcomed the hanging of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein as “an important milestone on Iraq’s course to becoming a democracy”.

    Current US President Donald Trump oversaw the assassination of Iran’s leader of clandestine military operations, Qassem Soleimani, in 2020.

    Martyr General Qassem Soleimani : No scholar or authority in Shiite history has been able to do what Imam Khomeini did#Baghdad0120#Soleimani pic.twitter.com/FgieLy1Rsu

    — Soleimani TV (@Soleimani_TV) February 10, 2021

    More recently, however, Trump appears to have baulked at granting Netanyahu permission to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

    And it’s worth noting the US Department of Justice last year brought charges against an Iranian man who said he had been tasked with killing Trump.

    Elsewhere, in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, it’s common for senior political and media opponents to be shot in the streets. Frequently they also “fall” out of high windows, are killed in plane crashes or succumb to mystery “illnesses”.

    A poor record
    Extrajudicial killings, however, have a poor record as a mechanism for solving political problems.

    Cutting off the hydra’s head has generally led to its often immediate replacement by another equally or more ideologically committed person, as has already happened in Iran. Perhaps they too await the next round of “mowing the grass”.

    But as the latest Israeli strikes in Iran and elsewhere show, solving the underlying issue is rarely the point.

    In situations where finding a lasting negotiated settlement would mean painful concessions or strategic risks, assassinations prove simply too tempting. They circumvent the difficulties and complexities of diplomacy while avoiding the need to concede power or territory.

    As many have concluded, however, assassinations have never killed resistance. They have never killed the ideas and experiences that give birth to resistance in the first place.

    Nor have they offered lasting security to those who have ordered the lethal strike.

    Enduring security requires that, at some point, someone grasp the nettle and look to the underlying issues.

    The alternative is the continuation of the brutal pattern of strike and counter-strike for generations to come.The Conversation

    Dr Matt Fitzpatrick is professor in international history, Flinders University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Solomon Islanders safe but unable to leave Israel amid war on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/solomon-islanders-safe-but-unable-to-leave-israel-amid-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/solomon-islanders-safe-but-unable-to-leave-israel-amid-war-on-iran/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 23:37:09 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116297 RNZ Pacific

    The Solomon Islands Foreign Ministry says five people who completed agriculture training in Israel are safe but unable to come home amid the ongoing war between Israel and Iran.

    The ministry said in a statement that the Solomon Islands Embassy in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, was closely monitoring the situation and maintaining regular contact with the students.

    Ambassador Cornelius Walegerea said that given the volatile nature of the current situation, the safety of their citizens in Israel — particularly the students — remained their top priority.

    • READ MORE: Iran fires missiles at Israel; Trump claims ‘total control of Iran skies’
    • RNZ Pacific updates on the conflict

    “Once the airport reopens and it is deemed safe for them to travel, the students will be able to return home.”

    The five Solomon Islands students have undertaken agricultural training at the Arava International Centre for Agriculture in Israel since September 2024.

    The students completed their training on June 5 and were scheduled to return home on June 17.

    The students have been advised to strictly follow instructions issued by local authorities and to continue observing all precautionary safety measures.

    Ministry updates
    The ministry will continue to provide updates as the situation develops.

    Its travel advisory, issued the day Israel attacked Iran last Friday, said the ministry “wishes to advise all citizens not to travel to Israel and the region”.

    Citizens studying in Israel were told they “should now make every effort to leave Israel”.

    Meanwhile, a friend of a New Zealander stuck in Iran said the NZ government needed to help provide safe passage, and that the advice so far had been “vague and lacking any substance whatsover”.

    The woman told RNZ the advice from MFAT until yesterday had been to “stay put”, before an evacuation notice was issued.

    MFAT declined interview
    MFAT declined an interview, but told RNZ it had heard from a small number of New Zealanders seeking advice about how to depart from Iran and Israel.

    It would not provide any further detail regarding those individuals.

    MFAT said the airspace was currently closed over both countries, which would likely continue.

    The agency understood departure via land border crossings had been taking place, but that carried risks and New Zealanders “should only do so if they feel it is safe”.

    Meanwhile, the NZ government said visitors from war zones in the Middle East could stay in New Zealand until it was safe for them to return home.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Can Israel’s war on Iran distract the world from Gaza? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/can-israels-war-on-iran-distract-the-world-from-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/can-israels-war-on-iran-distract-the-world-from-gaza/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 20:00:45 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=96b5d86c2b42a86be2c79ed68dc79125
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/can-israels-war-on-iran-distract-the-world-from-gaza/feed/ 0 539469
    Israel cracks down on Palestinian journalists during conflict with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/israel-cracks-down-on-palestinian-journalists-during-conflict-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/israel-cracks-down-on-palestinian-journalists-during-conflict-with-iran/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 18:07:23 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=490127 Nazerath, June 17, 2025—Palestinian journalists in Israel covering the conflict with Iran that began June 12 have been accused of “working for the enemy,” barred from reporting sites, physically assaulted, and subjected to racial slurs.

    The attacks and restrictions against the Palestinian journalists are part of a broader pattern of obstruction and hostility toward the press in Israel. For more than 20 months, Israeli authorities have barred foreign journalists from entering the Gaza Strip and, as of June 17, have killed 185 Palestinian journalists in Gaza, including at least 17 who were targeted for their work.

    CPJ has documented at least eight separate incidents on June 14 and 15 involving the harassment, obstruction, equipment confiscation, incitement, and, in some cases, forced removal by Israeli police, of at least 14 journalists. Most of the journalists work for Arabic-language outlets and were reporting from sites impacted by Iranian or Israeli strikes. Despite their press credentials and lawful access, journalists were repeatedly blocked from entering sites, assaulted by civilians, and in several cases expelled from reporting sites by police or border guard forces.

    “We are deeply concerned by the troubling pattern of targeting Palestinian journalists working inside Israel. On June 14 and June 15, at least 14 journalists were obstructed, incited against, or physically assaulted for simply doing their jobs,” said CPJ Regional Director Sara Qudah. “Israeli authorities must immediately investigate these violations, hold perpetrators accountable, and stop treating Palestinian journalists covering the war as threats.”

    Physical attacks:

    On June 14, police in Rishon LeZion prevented Sameer Abdel Hadi, a correspondent for Turkish news agency Anadolu, and Arej Hakroush, a correspondent for privately owned, London-based online news channel Al-Ghad TV, from returning to reporting sites they had legally entered and confiscated their equipment. Before police forcibly expelled them from the street where they were broadcasting, unidentified individuals called Hakroush and her camera operator, Alaa Al-Heeh, racial slurs and physically attacked them while police refused to intervene, according to Abdel Hadi and Hakroush, who spoke with CPJ. The individuals beat the journalists with their equipment and pulled Hakroush by the hair.

    On June 15, in Bat Yam, Al-Ghad TV correspondent Razi Tattour and camera operator Eyad Abu Shalbak were pushed and harassed by border police officers after speaking Arabic at the site of a rocket strike. The officers forcibly cut their live transmission, confiscated their camera, and accused them of being “terrorists,” Tattour told CPJ. The camera was later returned, and Tattour filed a police complaint.

    Separately that day in Bat Yam, journalists Marwan Othmanah and Mohamed Al-Sharif of Saudi broadcaster Al-Arabiya were targeted by a group of unidentified individuals, who shouted, “Get out Arabs!” and threw objects at them, injuring Othmanah in the thigh. Police did not make any arrests or protect the journalists, Othmanah told CPJ.

    Incitement and threats on social media:

    On June 15, in Haifa, several journalists — including Abdel Hadi of Turkish-based Anadolu; freelancers Ward Qarara and Kareen Al-Bash; reporters Saeed Khair El-Din, Israa Al-Zeer, and Abd Khader of Al-Arabiya; and Ahmed Jaradat, a reporter for independent regional broadcaster Al-Araby TV — were filming a segment on the aftermath of rocket strikes when unidentified individuals began filming them and circulating their images in posts in Israeli social media groups, accusing all them of working for “the enemy,” according to Qarara and CPJ’s review of those posts. Police were present at the scene but did not intervene or offer protection to the journalists, he told CPJ.

    Censorship:

    On June 14, the Israeli military censor instructed local and international media not to publish details about rocket strikes or internal security. A Fox News reporter, who spoke to CPJ on the condition of anonymity, citing fear of reprisal, said they were banned from entering a reporting site after they were accused of violating the instructions.

    Additionally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir announced that he had asked Israel’s General Security Services, also known as Shin Bet, to investigate foreign media broadcasters over claims they were “giving information to the enemy.”

    CPJ emailed the Israeli Defense Forces’ North America Media Deskto ask about these actions against journalists but did not immediately receive a response.

    Editor’s note: The fifth paragraph was updated to include the equipment confiscation.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Middle East and North Africa Program.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/israel-cracks-down-on-palestinian-journalists-during-conflict-with-iran/feed/ 0 539448
    Israel cracks down on Palestinian journalists during conflict with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/israel-cracks-down-on-palestinian-journalists-during-conflict-with-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/israel-cracks-down-on-palestinian-journalists-during-conflict-with-iran-2/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 18:07:23 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=490127 Nazerath, June 17, 2025—Palestinian journalists in Israel covering the conflict with Iran that began June 12 have been accused of “working for the enemy,” barred from reporting sites, physically assaulted, and subjected to racial slurs.

    The attacks and restrictions against the Palestinian journalists are part of a broader pattern of obstruction and hostility toward the press in Israel. For more than 20 months, Israeli authorities have barred foreign journalists from entering the Gaza Strip and, as of June 17, have killed 185 Palestinian journalists in Gaza, including at least 17 who were targeted for their work.

    CPJ has documented at least eight separate incidents on June 14 and 15 involving the harassment, obstruction, equipment confiscation, incitement, and, in some cases, forced removal by Israeli police, of at least 14 journalists. Most of the journalists work for Arabic-language outlets and were reporting from sites impacted by Iranian or Israeli strikes. Despite their press credentials and lawful access, journalists were repeatedly blocked from entering sites, assaulted by civilians, and in several cases expelled from reporting sites by police or border guard forces.

    “We are deeply concerned by the troubling pattern of targeting Palestinian journalists working inside Israel. On June 14 and June 15, at least 14 journalists were obstructed, incited against, or physically assaulted for simply doing their jobs,” said CPJ Regional Director Sara Qudah. “Israeli authorities must immediately investigate these violations, hold perpetrators accountable, and stop treating Palestinian journalists covering the war as threats.”

    Physical attacks:

    On June 14, police in Rishon LeZion prevented Sameer Abdel Hadi, a correspondent for Turkish news agency Anadolu, and Arej Hakroush, a correspondent for privately owned, London-based online news channel Al-Ghad TV, from returning to reporting sites they had legally entered and confiscated their equipment. Before police forcibly expelled them from the street where they were broadcasting, unidentified individuals called Hakroush and her camera operator, Alaa Al-Heeh, racial slurs and physically attacked them while police refused to intervene, according to Abdel Hadi and Hakroush, who spoke with CPJ. The individuals beat the journalists with their equipment and pulled Hakroush by the hair.

    On June 15, in Bat Yam, Al-Ghad TV correspondent Razi Tattour and camera operator Eyad Abu Shalbak were pushed and harassed by border police officers after speaking Arabic at the site of a rocket strike. The officers forcibly cut their live transmission, confiscated their camera, and accused them of being “terrorists,” Tattour told CPJ. The camera was later returned, and Tattour filed a police complaint.

    Separately that day in Bat Yam, journalists Marwan Othmanah and Mohamed Al-Sharif of Saudi broadcaster Al-Arabiya were targeted by a group of unidentified individuals, who shouted, “Get out Arabs!” and threw objects at them, injuring Othmanah in the thigh. Police did not make any arrests or protect the journalists, Othmanah told CPJ.

    Incitement and threats on social media:

    On June 15, in Haifa, several journalists — including Abdel Hadi of Turkish-based Anadolu; freelancers Ward Qarara and Kareen Al-Bash; reporters Saeed Khair El-Din, Israa Al-Zeer, and Abd Khader of Al-Arabiya; and Ahmed Jaradat, a reporter for independent regional broadcaster Al-Araby TV — were filming a segment on the aftermath of rocket strikes when unidentified individuals began filming them and circulating their images in posts in Israeli social media groups, accusing all them of working for “the enemy,” according to Qarara and CPJ’s review of those posts. Police were present at the scene but did not intervene or offer protection to the journalists, he told CPJ.

    Censorship:

    On June 14, the Israeli military censor instructed local and international media not to publish details about rocket strikes or internal security. A Fox News reporter, who spoke to CPJ on the condition of anonymity, citing fear of reprisal, said they were banned from entering a reporting site after they were accused of violating the instructions.

    Additionally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir announced that he had asked Israel’s General Security Services, also known as Shin Bet, to investigate foreign media broadcasters over claims they were “giving information to the enemy.”

    CPJ emailed the Israeli Defense Forces’ North America Media Deskto ask about these actions against journalists but did not immediately receive a response.

    Editor’s note: The fifth paragraph was updated to include the equipment confiscation.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Middle East and North Africa Program.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/israel-cracks-down-on-palestinian-journalists-during-conflict-with-iran-2/feed/ 0 539449
    After Israel’s unprovoked attack, Iran may seek nuclear weapons https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/after-israels-unprovoked-attack-iran-may-seek-nuclear-weapons/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/after-israels-unprovoked-attack-iran-may-seek-nuclear-weapons/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 17:48:20 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=39a99f91c45a7db5f80fdd349fba3419
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/after-israels-unprovoked-attack-iran-may-seek-nuclear-weapons/feed/ 0 539440
    Iran Under Fire As Locals Describe Fear And Chaos After Israel Attacks https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/iran-under-fire-as-locals-describe-fear-and-chaos-after-israel-attacks/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/iran-under-fire-as-locals-describe-fear-and-chaos-after-israel-attacks/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 16:57:14 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=d3c49824ea0990914ab3f38f673f5a86
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/iran-under-fire-as-locals-describe-fear-and-chaos-after-israel-attacks/feed/ 0 539425
    Apply the NPT to All Nations Equally https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/apply-the-npt-to-all-nations-equally/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/apply-the-npt-to-all-nations-equally/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 15:14:06 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159105 This is a case of awakening Iran to really the full deceit and the full evil that is represented by Israel and the United States and Europe in my view this uh you know the history of the last 60 years for my country I’m ashamed of it. You know my country was supposed to […]

    The post Apply the NPT to All Nations Equally first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    This is a case of awakening Iran to really the full deceit and the full evil that is represented by Israel and the United States and Europe in my view this uh you know the history of the last 60 years for my country I’m ashamed of it. You know my country was supposed to be a place of freedom and liberty and promoting freedom, instead we become agents of murder and mayhem, and we kill foreigners with no regard whatsoever and then wonder why people don’t like us.

    — Larry Johnson, “IRAN STRIKES ISRAEL: Rockets Rain Down on Tel Aviv, Haifa, Eilat & More!” Dialogue Works, 16 June 2025

    Because of nuclear weapons, and because a lot of countries have a lot of them, we [the United States] can’t defeat those countries. So the world is intrinsically multipolar in the sense: don’t mess with another nuclear superpower [it] can really wreck your day.

    — Jeffrey Sachs, “Washington has the delusion it still runs the show,” Al Jazeera.

    Columbia University economics professor Jeffrey Sachs restates an often heard and obvious maxim that speaks to nuclear deterrence. Military analyst Scott Ritter seems to dissent from the maxim of nuclear deterrence. In a video dated 15 July 2025, Ritter says, “Developing A Nuclear Weapon Will Be THE END Of Iran!”

    “I’ll tell you, the quickest way to get America to drop nuclear bombs on Iran is for Iran to develop a nuclear weapons program. Iran will not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. That will not happen. No matter how much people think it’s justified, and all this. it won’t happen uh the United States has made it clear that, it’s uh, it’s red line for it using nuclear weapons against Iran is an Iranian nuclear weapon.”

    “I turn to the Iranians and say: why then do you want to posture as a nuclear threshold state knowing that if you ever cross that line you bring about your inevitable destruction as a nation [by the US] …”

    Yet, in a subsequent video, on 16 July 2025, Ritter seems to contradict himself, saying: “The Iranians are ready for what the United States can bring to bear.”

    Ritter also admits, “The Israelis know that the Iranians don’t have a nuclear weapons program. They know it.”

    Ritter complains, “Iran is being grossly irresponsible for going beyond that which is necessary for um doing its legitimate peaceful [nuclear] program.”

    Providing one’s nation, a nation which is constantly threatened, with an effective military deterrence is irresponsible? Ritter ignores that Israel has been biting at the bit for several decades to attack Iran on the pretense that it is acquiring nuclear weapon capability… a similar trajectory that Israel undertook to acquire its nuclear weapons capability.

    Ritter is flummoxed as to why Iran would pursue enrichment beyond 20% calling it “waving the red flag in front of the Israeli bull.” Well, that Israeli bull did not need a red flag to launch an illegal war, a cowardly war, and that is what a war is when you just sneak up to attack without the courage to first declare war.

    Ritter’s argument is regressivist unless he applies the nuclear standard to all countries.

    A US nuclear attack on a nuclear armed Iran would also threaten the end of the US as a self-preening beacon on the hill — if it isn’t already in the eyes of people around the world.

    Why doesn’t an intelligent analyst like Ritter argue for every nuclear-armed nation to accede to Article 6 of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty instead of focusing his ire solely on a perpetually targeted Iran. If not, it comes across as prejudiced and discriminatory.

    The post Apply the NPT to All Nations Equally first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Kim Petersen.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/apply-the-npt-to-all-nations-equally/feed/ 0 539482
    Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister on U.S. Embargo, Trump’s Deportations, Israel’s War on Iran & Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/cuban-deputy-foreign-minister-on-u-s-embargo-trumps-deportations-israels-war-on-iran-gaza-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/cuban-deputy-foreign-minister-on-u-s-embargo-trumps-deportations-israels-war-on-iran-gaza-2/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 15:01:44 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=e02537e8b3199e552f0e6726401317fa
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/cuban-deputy-foreign-minister-on-u-s-embargo-trumps-deportations-israels-war-on-iran-gaza-2/feed/ 0 539400
    Preemptive Strike or Act of War? Israel Attacks Iran Amid Sinking Global Support for Assault on Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/preemptive-strike-or-act-of-war-israel-attacks-iran-amid-sinking-global-support-for-assault-on-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/preemptive-strike-or-act-of-war-israel-attacks-iran-amid-sinking-global-support-for-assault-on-gaza/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 14:30:10 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=fcaca7141fee826ac305469429a88692
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/preemptive-strike-or-act-of-war-israel-attacks-iran-amid-sinking-global-support-for-assault-on-gaza/feed/ 0 539404
    Escalation of Israeli attacks on Iran risks causing serious radioactive contamination https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/escalation-of-israeli-attacks-on-iran-risks-causing-serious-radioactive-contamination/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/escalation-of-israeli-attacks-on-iran-risks-causing-serious-radioactive-contamination/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 12:57:10 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/escalation-of-israeli-attacks-on-iran-risks-causing-serious-radioactive-contamination The Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, ICAN, has responded to the escalation in Israel's air strikes on Iran, including on its nuclear programme, by calling for an immediate end to attacks on nuclear facilities.

    ICAN's Executive Director, Melissa Parke, said: “The escalation in the conflict following nuclear-armed Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has to stop before it is too late. Attacking nuclear facilities is illegal and threatens to release radiation, causing a long term threat to people’s health and the environment. The conflict is also a threat to international peace and security.

    ICAN calls on the international community, including Israel’s allies, to clearly condemn Israel’s action and to put pressure on both parties to end hostilities. International treaties such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons are essential tools to bring peace and security to the region and globally. The two countries should take immediate action - Israel should join both treaties and Iran should join the TPNW and reiterate its commitment to the NPT. ”


    This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Newswire Editor.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/escalation-of-israeli-attacks-on-iran-risks-causing-serious-radioactive-contamination/feed/ 0 539362
    Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister on U.S. Embargo, Trump’s Deportations, Israel’s War on Iran & Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/cuban-deputy-foreign-minister-on-u-s-embargo-trumps-deportations-israels-war-on-iran-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/cuban-deputy-foreign-minister-on-u-s-embargo-trumps-deportations-israels-war-on-iran-gaza/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 12:47:25 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=e5d275004c61e9f242f72f3c5f02628e Guest seg carlos alt

    We speak with Carlos Fernández de Cossío, Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, about the Trump administration’s tightening restrictions on the country. Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has reinstated Cuba’s designation as a so-called state sponsor of terrorism, recommitted to upholding the decadeslong economic embargo and targeted Cuban immigrants for deportation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now going after Cuba’s medical program that sends Cuban doctors and healthcare workers to assist other countries. The island nation was also among the countries on Trump’s travel ban that went into effect last week, severely limiting Cuban nationals from entering the U.S. This all comes as the Trump administration is reportedly planning to transfer thousands of immigrants to be detained at Guantánamo Bay. Fernández de Cossío says the influence of anti-Cuban politicians in the U.S. is “greater than any previous moment,” which allows them to push “this narrow approach, which is not relevant to the interests of most Americans.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/cuban-deputy-foreign-minister-on-u-s-embargo-trumps-deportations-israels-war-on-iran-gaza/feed/ 0 539390
    Preemptive Strike or Act of War? Israel Attacked Iran Amid Sinking Global Support for Assault on Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/preemptive-strike-or-act-of-war-israel-attacked-iran-amid-sinking-global-support-for-assault-on-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/preemptive-strike-or-act-of-war-israel-attacked-iran-amid-sinking-global-support-for-assault-on-gaza/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 12:14:42 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1c92428e51b6c4230b38b0f9815cb3e4 Seg iran anchor

    Israel is intensifying its war on Iran, bombing the headquarters of the country’s national TV network on Monday and assassinating another top military leader. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also suggested killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has responded with barrages of long-range missiles targeting Israel. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has shown little interest in containing Israel’s assault, posting on social media that “everyone should immediately evacuate” the capital Tehran.

    “How can a city, a metropolis of 10 million people, suddenly evacuate? And to where?” says Iranian American journalist Negar Mortazavi. She notes that while Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is civilian in nature, these attacks could push the leadership into militarizing it and pursuing nuclear weapons.

    We also speak with Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg, who says the war on Iran has allowed Israel’s establishment to “draw the world’s attention away from Gaza,” countering rising domestic and international criticism. “Netanyahu felt the global sentiment shifting … and because of that, he attacked Iran.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/preemptive-strike-or-act-of-war-israel-attacked-iran-amid-sinking-global-support-for-assault-on-gaza/feed/ 0 539394
    As Israeli attacks draw tit-for-tat missile responses from Iran and shuts Haifa refinery, Gaza genocide continues https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/as-israeli-attacks-draw-tit-for-tat-missile-responses-from-iran-and-shuts-haifa-refinery-gaza-genocide-continues/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/as-israeli-attacks-draw-tit-for-tat-missile-responses-from-iran-and-shuts-haifa-refinery-gaza-genocide-continues/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 08:21:49 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116278 A New Zealand journalist on the ground in the Middle East summarises events from the occupied West Bank.

    UPDATES: By Cole Martin in Occupied Bethlehem

    Fifty six Palestinians were killed by Israel in Gaza today, 38 of them while seeking aid, while five were killed and 20 wounded in an Israeli attack on aid workers northwest of Gaza City.

    Al-Qassam Brigades reportedly blew up a house in southern Gaza where a number of Israeli soldiers were operating from.

    Israel’s forced starvation and indiscriminate targeting of civilians continues.

    • READ MORE: Attack on Iran’s state media – Israel bombs IRIB building in new war crime
    • Why Israel’s ‘humane’ propaganda is such a sinister facade
    • Other Israeli war on Iran reports

    Israeli media report that Iranian missile strikes on Haifa oil refinery yesterday killed 3 people and closed down the installation.

    The Israeli death toll has risen to 24, with 400 injured and more than 2700 people displaced.

    Israeli authorities report 370 missiles fired by Iran in total, 30 reaching their targets. Iranian military report they have carried out 550 drone operations.

    224 killed in Iran
    Two hundred and twenty four people have been killed by Israeli attacks on Iran, with 1277 hospitalised.

    The state radio and television building was targeted by Israeli strikes twice — while broadcasting live — with the broadcast back online within 5 minutes despite the attack.

    In response, Iran has issued a warning to evacuate the central offices of Israeli television channels 12 and 14.

    An Israeli attack on a Red Crescent ambulance in Tehran resulted in the deaths of two relief workers.

    Israel’s Finance Minister Belazel Smotrich, who is accused of being a war criminal and the target of sanctions by five countries including New Zealand, claims they have hit 800 targets in Iran, with aircraft flying freely in the nation’s airspace.

    In the West Bank, the tension continues, with business continuing at a subdued level, everyone waiting to see how the situation will unfold.

    Israel’s illegal siege continues, cutting off cities and villages from one another, while blocking ambulances and urgent medical access in several locations today.

    Israeli and Iranian strikes are expected to continue, and potentially escalate, over the coming days.

    Israel’s genocide in Gaza continues.

    Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

    Iranian missiles raining down on Tel Aviv as seen from the occupied West Bank
    Iranian missiles raining down on Tel Aviv as seen from the occupied West Bank. Image: CM screenshot APR


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/as-israeli-attacks-draw-tit-for-tat-missile-responses-from-iran-and-shuts-haifa-refinery-gaza-genocide-continues/feed/ 0 539326
    Attack on Iran’s state media – Israel bombs IRIB building in new war crime https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/attack-on-irans-state-media-israel-bombs-irib-building-in-new-war-crime/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/attack-on-irans-state-media-israel-bombs-irib-building-in-new-war-crime/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 01:24:52 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116235 Pacific Media Watch

    Israel targeted one of the buildings of the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) in Tehran on the fourth day of attacks on Iran, interrupting a live news broadcast, reports Press TV.

    The attack, involving at least four bombs, struck the central building housing IRIB’s news department, while a live news broadcast was underway.

    The transmission was briefly interrupted before Hassan Abedini, IRIB’s news director and deputy for political affairs, appeared on air to condemn the “terrorist crime”.

    • READ MORE: Blasts rock Tehran, Tel Aviv; Iran warns Israel of ‘devastating’ attacks
    • Other Israeli war on Iran reports

    At the time of the attack, news anchor Sahar Emami was presenting the news. Despite the building trembling under the first strike, she stood her ground and continued the broadcast.

    “Allah o Akbar” (God is Great), she proclaimed, drawing global attention to the war crime committed by Israel against Iran’s national broadcaster.

    Moments later, another blast filled the studio with smoke and dust, forcing her to evacuate. She returned shortly after to join Abedini and share her harrowing experience.

    “If I die, others will take my place and expose your crimes to the world,” she declared, looking straight into the camera with courage and composure.

    Casualties unconfirmed
    While the number of casualties remains unconfirmed, insiders reported that several journalists inside the building had been injured in the bombing.

    Israel’s war ministry promptly claimed responsibility for the attack.

    Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the aggression on the state broadcaster as a “war crime” and called on the United Nations to take immediate action against the regime.

    . . . ABut after a brief interruption on screen as debris fell from a bomb strike, Sahar Emami was back presenting the news
    . . . But after a brief interruption on screen as debris fell from a bomb strike, Sahar Emami was back courageously presenting the news and denouncing the attack. Image: AJ screenshot APR

    Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei denounced the attack and urged the international community to hold the regime accountable for its assault on the media.

    “The world is watching: targeting Iran’s news agency #IRIB’s office during a live broadcast is a wicked act of war crime,” Baghaei wrote on X.

    The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) also condemned the bombing of the IRIB news building, labeling it an “inhuman, criminal, and a terrorist act.”

    CPJ ‘appalled’ by Israeli attack
    The Committee to Protect Journalists said it was “appalled by Israel’s bombing of Iran’s state TV channel while live on air.”

    “Israel’s killing, with impunity, of almost 200 journalists in Gaza has emboldened it to target media elsewhere in the region,” Sara Qudah, the West Asia representative for CPJ, said in a statement after the attack on an IRIB building.

    The Israeli regime has a documented history of targeting journalists globally. Since October 2023, it has killed more than 250 Palestinian journalists in the besieged Gaza Strip.

    The regime launched its aggression against the Islamic Republic, including Tehran, early on Friday, leading to the assassination of several high-ranking military officials, nuclear scientists, and civilians, including women and children.

    In response, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones late Friday night, followed by more retaliatory operations on Saturday and Sunday as part of Operation True Promise III.

    In Israel, 24 people have been killed and hundreds wounded since hostilities began. In Iran, 224 people have been killed.

    Plumes of black smoke billowing after an Israeli attack against Iran's state broadcaster
    Plumes of black smoke billowing after an Israeli attack against Iran’s state broadcaster yesterday. Image: PressTV


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/17/attack-on-irans-state-media-israel-bombs-irib-building-in-new-war-crime/feed/ 0 539259
    Israel strikes Iran state TV complex during live broadcast https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-strikes-iran-state-tv-complex-during-live-broadcast/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-strikes-iran-state-tv-complex-during-live-broadcast/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 20:22:54 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=489839 Paris, June 16, 2025—The Israeli military struck the headquarters of the state-owned outlet Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) in the capital, Tehran, on Monday, interrupting a live broadcast. The strike occurred on the fourth day of fire exchanged between Israel and Iran. 

    Footage showed an explosion in the studio and Sahar Emami, a presenter for the outlet, ducking for cover as debris and smoke filled the frame. CPJ was unable to immediately verify reports of journalists killed and injured at the scene.

    “CPJ is appalled by Israel’s bombing of Iran’s state television channel while reporters were live on air,” said CPJ Middle East and North Africa Regional Director Sara Qudah. “Israel’s killing, with impunity, of at least 185 journalists in Gaza has emboldened it to target media elsewhere in the region. This bloodshed must end now.”

    “Listen, what you hear is the sound of the aggressor,” Emami said on air before the strike. “You hear the sound of the aggressor attacking the truth.” Minutes after the strike, Emami continued reporting from another studio and said reporters were killed.

    This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows anchor Sahar Emami reporting live before an explosion from an Israeli attack on the outlet on June 16, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. (Photo: Iran state TV, IRINN via AP)
    This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows anchor Sahar Emami reporting live before an explosion from an Israeli attack on the outlet on June 16, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. (Photo: Iran state TV, IRINN via AP)

    Another anchor for the outlet said reporters were injured. 

    “I don’t know how many of my colleagues were martyred or injured,” said Younes Shadlou, a senior correspondent for IRIB,  in an Instagram video. Shadlou is seen with blood on his hands in front of the building with fire and smoke. 

    The Israel Defense Forces had issued an evacuation warning for the area in which the headquarters was located. The IDF later confirmed the precision strike in a statement saying it had targeted a communication center that was being used by the Iranian military “under the guise of civilian activity.” CPJ was unable to independently confirm these allegations.

    “The Iranian regime’s propaganda and incitement broadcasting authority was attacked by the IDF after a widespread evacuation of the area’s residents,” said Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz. “We will strike the Iranian dictator everywhere.”

    CPJ’s email to IDF’s North America Media Desk to ask about the targeting of journalists did not immediately receive a response.

    This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows the network building on fire after an Israeli strike on June 16, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. (Photo: Iran state TV, IRINN)
    This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows the network building on fire after an Israeli strike on June 16, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. (Photo: Iran state TV, IRINN)

    CPJ’s multiple attempts to contact officials from the broadcaster were unanswered, as Iran imposed severe internet restrictions since the outbreak of the conflict on Friday. Despite broadcasting, the outlet’s website is inaccessible.

    “There is absolutely no logical reason for Israel to target a media outlet or facility in Iran that holds no weapons and poses no threat to anyone,” said Peyman Jebelli, head of IRIB. “In any war or conflict around the world, attacking a media outlet is unjustifiable…But when we look at the history of the Zionist state and its wars against the people of this region, we see that journalists and media organizations have consistently been among its targets.”

    As of June 16, 2025, CPJ’s preliminary investigations showed at least 185 journalists and media workers were among the more than tens of thousands killed in Gaza, the West Bank, Israel, and Lebanon since the Israel-Gaza War began, making it the deadliest period for journalists since CPJ began gathering data in 1992.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Staff.

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    Condemning the Right to Self Defence: Iran’s Retaliation and Israel’s Privilege https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/condemning-the-right-to-self-defence-irans-retaliation-and-israels-privilege/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/condemning-the-right-to-self-defence-irans-retaliation-and-israels-privilege/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 18:58:58 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159133 There is a throbbing complaint among Western powers, including those in the European Union and the United States.  Iran is not playing by the rules. Instead of accepting with dutiful meekness the slaughter of its military leadership and scientific personnel, Tehran decided, promptly, to respond to Israel’s pre-emptive strikes launched on June 13.  Instead of […]

    The post Condemning the Right to Self Defence: Iran’s Retaliation and Israel’s Privilege first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    There is a throbbing complaint among Western powers, including those in the European Union and the United States.  Iran is not playing by the rules. Instead of accepting with dutiful meekness the slaughter of its military leadership and scientific personnel, Tehran decided, promptly, to respond to Israel’s pre-emptive strikes launched on June 13.  Instead of considering the dubious legal implications of such strikes, an act of undeclared war, the focus in the European Union and various other backers of Israel has been to focus on the retaliation itself.

    To the Israeli attacks conducted as part of Operation Rising Lion, there was studied silence.  It was not a silence observed when it came to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.  Then, the law books were swiftly procured, and obligations of the United Nations Charter cited under Article 2(4): “All members shall refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity of any state.”  Russia was condemned for adopting a preventive stance on Ukraine as a threat to its security: that, in Kyiv joining NATO, a formidable threat would manifest at the border.

    In his statement on the unfolding conflict between Israel and Iran, France’s President Emmanuel Macron made sure to condemn “Iran’s ongoing nuclear program”, having taken “all appropriate diplomatic measures in response.”  Israel also had the “right to defend itself and ensure its security”, leaving open the suggestion that it might have been justified resorting to Article 51 of the UN Charter.  All he could offer was a call on “all parties to exercise maximum restraint and to de-escalate.”

    In a most piquant response, Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories stated that, “On the day Israel, unprovoked, has attacked Iran, killing 80 people, the president of a major European power, finally admits that in the Middle East, Israel, and only Israel, has the right to defend itself.”

    The German Foreign Office was even bolder in accusing Iran of having engaged in its own selfish measures of self-defence (such unwarranted bravado!), something it has always been happy to afford Israel.  “We strongly condemn the indiscriminate Iranian attack on Israeli territory.”  In contrast, the foreign office also felt it appropriate to reference the illegal attack on Iran as involving “targeted strikes” against its nuclear facilities. Despite Israel having an undeclared nuclear weapons stockpile that permanently endangers security in the region, the office went on to chastise Iran for having a nuclear program that violated “the Non-Proliferation Treaty”, threatening in its nature “to the entire region – especially Israel.”  Those at fault had been found out.

    The President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, could hardly improve on that apologia.  She revealed that she had been conversing with Israeli President Isaac Herzog about the “escalating situation in the Middle East.”  She also knew her priorities: reiterating Israel’s right to self- defence and refusing to mention Iran’s, while tagging on the statement a broader concern for preserving regional stability.  The rest involved a reference to diplomacy and de-escalation, toward which Israel has shown a resolute contempt with regards Iran and its nuclear program.

    The assessment offered by Mohamed ElBaradei, former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was forensically impressive, as well as being icily dismissive.  Not only did he reproach the German response for ignoring the importance of Article 2(4) of the Charter prohibiting the use of force subject to the right to self-defence, he brought up a reminder: targeted strikes against the nuclear facilities of any party “are prohibited under Article 56 of the additional protocol of the Geneva Conventions to which Germany is a party”.

    ElBaradei also referred anyone exercised by such matters to the United Nations Security Council 487 (1981), which did not have a single demur in its adoption.  It unreservedly condemned the attack by Israel on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear research reactor in June that year as a violation of the UN Charter, recognised that Iraq was a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and had permitted the IAEA inspections of the facility, stated that Iraq had a right to establish and develop civilian nuclear programs and called on Israel to place its own nuclear facilities under the jurisdictional safeguards of the IAEA.

    The calculus regarding the use of force by Israel vis-à-vis its adversaries has long been a sneaky one.  It is jigged and rigged in favour of the Jewish state. As Trita Parsi put it with unblemished accuracy, Western pundits had, for a year and a half, stated that Hamas, having started the Gaza War on October 7, 2023 bore responsibility for civilian carnage. “Western pundits for the past 1.5 days: Israel started the war with Iran, and if Iran retaliates, they bear responsibility for civilian deaths.” The perceived barbarian, when attacked by a force seen as superior and civilised, will always be condemned for having reacted most naturally, and most violently of all.

    The post Condemning the Right to Self Defence: Iran’s Retaliation and Israel’s Privilege first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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    Israel started a war with Iran, but it doesn’t know how it ends https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-started-a-war-with-iran-but-it-doesnt-know-how-it-ends/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-started-a-war-with-iran-but-it-doesnt-know-how-it-ends/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 17:32:36 +0000 https://therealnews.com/?p=334840 U.S. President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the White House on April 07, 2025 in Washington, DC. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty ImagesIsrael's attack on Iran began as a campaign against its nuclear program but has already begun to morph into something far riskier: regime change. It is staking its strategy on deep US involvement, but fault lines between the two are already visible.]]> U.S. President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the White House on April 07, 2025 in Washington, DC. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

    This story originally appeared in Mondoweiss on June 14, 2025. It is shared here with permission.

    The war between Israel and Iran marks the culmination of decades of shadow-boxing between Tehran and Tel Aviv. This is a war that has long worn the mask of deniability, played out in assassinations, cyber operations, and various forms of entanglements from Damascus to the Red Sea. Its rules were unwritten but widely understood: escalation without full rupture. But now it’s unfolding in a surprise Israeli intelligence and military attack, which was met with a subsequent Iranian retaliation against Israeli military installations and strategic infrastructure.

    While Israel’s capacity for precise targeting — its assassinations of nuclear scientists, the killing of Iranian commanders, and its strikes on enrichment sites — has rarely been in doubt, its broader strategic horizon remains conspicuously blurred. 

    Official Israeli communiqués gesture, with ritual ambiguity, toward the language of victory and denying Iran nuclear capability, but the underlying ambition seems at once more elusive and more grandiose: the execution of a blow so decisive it would not only cripple Iran’s nuclear program, but fracture the Islamic Republic’s political resolve altogether. 

    This, however, remains far from realized. Iran’s underground facilities remain intact, and its enrichment program, far from being stalled, appears now to be ideologically and politically emboldened. Hesitations around the acquisition of nuclear weapons will probably undergo a review. Iran, while suffering from a direct blow that crippled its chain of command and placed it on the defensive, was able to recuperate and launch several barrages of ballistic misslies into Israel.

    And yet, behind this Israeli choreography of operational tenacity lies a quieter, more subterranean logic. It is not only Iran that Israel seeks to provoke, but the United States. If Israel cannot destroy Natanz or Fordow on its own, it may still succeed in creating the conditions under which Washington feels compelled to act in its stead. This, perhaps, is the real gambit: not a direct confrontation with Iran, but the orchestration of an environment of urgency and provocation that makes American intervention — at a minimum — on the table. In other words, Israel’s military theatrics are a trap for the U.S.

    Israel isn’t simply assembling a reactive sequence of military gestures; it’s a calibrated strategy of provocations that create the conditions for American leverage. Israel acts; the United States, while nominally uninvolved, capitalizes on the fallout, and even invokes the specter of its own military involvement as both a deterrent and a bargaining chip. 

    The strikes are less about immediate tactical gains than they are about constructing a field of pressure. Their strategic ambiguity is weaponized to test red lines and gauge responses.

    In this scheme, Washington appears to maintain a distance, but its fingerprints are never entirely absent. The more Israel escalates, the more the U.S. can posture as the moderating force — while simultaneously tightening the screws on Iran through sanctions, backchannel warnings, or displays of force in the Gulf. 

    The result is a strategic double-bind: Iran is meant to feel besieged from multiple directions, but never entirely certain where the next blow might come from. 

    Will Trump chicken out?

    This, at least, is where the United States and Israel seem momentarily aligned. Yet the fault lines in this coordination are already visible. 

    On the one hand, the war hawks in Washington will view this as a strategic opening and an opportunity to decisively weaken Iran and redraw the balance of power in the region. They will pressure Trump to act in this direction. 

    On the other hand, a full-scale war with Iran, especially one that spills across borders, would ripple through global markets, disrupting trade, oil production, and critical infrastructure. The allure of military advantage is shadowed by the specter of economic upheaval, which is a gamble that even the most hardened strategists can’t ignore. Yemen’s Ansar Allah has already proven the viability of closing trade routes, and Iran is able to do far more.

    But the story of “America First” is also approaching an inflection point. Donald Trump’s rhetoric — premised on the prioritization of domestic problems, national interest, and a transactional nationalism hostile to foreign entanglements — now finds itself strained by the prospect, or reality, of a regional war that bears the unmistakable fingerprints of American complicity. The transition (discursively, at least) from a president who vowed to extricate the U.S. from Middle Eastern quagmires to one under whose watch a potentially epochal confrontation is unfolding exposes the fragile coherence of Trump’s strategic identity.

    The language of MAGA — no more “blood for sand,” no more American boys dying in foreign deserts, no more open-ended subsidies for unreliable allies — continues to resonate well beyond Trump’s electoral base. It taps into a deeper exhaustion with imperial overreach and a growing conviction that the dividends of global policing no longer justify its mounting costs. 

    And yet, even as this fatigue becomes conventional wisdom, the machinery of militarism persists — outsourced to regional proxies, framed in euphemisms, and increasingly waged out of sight. Nowhere is this more evident than in America’s unwavering support for Israel’s campaign in Gaza — a policy that, despite its genocidal overtones, encounters little serious resistance from the political mainstream.

    This is the duality that marks the contemporary American strategic imagination, particularly in its Trumpian register. On one hand, there is a professed realism about the limits of military force and the unsustainable burdens of global responsibility; on the other, there is a persistent ambition to reshape the geopolitical architecture of the Middle East by less direct means.

    In this schema, force may be held in reserve, but influence is not. The aspiration is to cultivate a calibrated rivalry among regional powers — Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. The U.S. seeks to tether them, however uneasily, to the gravitational logic of American centrality. If Pax Americana can no longer be imposed, then a managed dissonance among client states may suffice.

    In addition, another kind of dissonance marks Trump’s worldview: not merely strategic, but psychological. For all his rhetoric about restraint and national interest, Trump retains a sovereign fantasy of dominance. He does not merely seek balance but craves submission. The belief that an American president can issue diktats to Putin, Zelensky, or Khamenei — and that they will obey — is less a policy than a symptom of an imperial reflex. It continues to linger even as the structure it depends on has been eroding. In these moments, Trump sets aside the logic of multipolar accommodation.

    The current war initiated by Israel against Iran is an exemplar of this dissonance. It reflects not only Israel’s increasingly unilateral strategic posture but also the ambivalence that marks American leadership in the Trump era. Despite his anti-interventionist slogans, Trump was never immune to the gravitational pull of escalation, especially when framed as a test of strength or loyalty. 

    Indeed, the term coined by his critics — TACO, “Trump Always Chickens Out” — was circulated among financiers and neoconservatives not simply as mockery, but as diagnosis. It captured the oscillation between bluster and retreat, between the rhetoric of dominance and the impulse to recoil when the cost became tangible. 

    Such moments expose the uneasy alloy at the heart of Trump’s foreign policy: a mix of instinctual nationalism, imperial nostalgia, and tactical indecision. The result is a posture that often courts confrontation without preparation, and retreats from entanglement without resolution. If Israel’s strike on Iran was meant to provoke, it also tested the elasticity of Trump’s foreign policy instincts — and the contradictions that arise when strategic ambiguity meets theatrical resolve.

    Operational success and possible strategic failure

    It is undeniable that Israel, with both tacit and overt backing from its allies, succeeded in delivering a serious blow to Iran. The strikes reached deep into the Islamic Republic’s military and security apparatus, targeting logistical infrastructure and key nodes in the command hierarchy. Reports suggest that segments of Iran’s nuclear programme, alongside broader military installations, were damaged or set back. Civilian casualties, though predictable, were duly reported and then quietly folded into the wider logic of strategic necessity.

    The initial reaction in Israel to the perceived operational success followed a familiar ritual — an almost theatrical display of militaristic pride and nationalist euphoria. It was less about strategic calculation and more about reaffirming a hardened, jingoistic identity: Look at us—striking deep in Iran, and assassinating leaders and scientists. Each moment of escalation was repackaged as proof of autonomy and power, even when the reality was far more complex. Beneath the exultation lay a quieter unease: that every act of defiance also illuminated vulnerabilities — strategic, diplomatic, and existential. But this euphoria did not last long as Iran regained its military command and initiated its own military operation, striking deep within Israel with ballistic missiles that targeted Israeli infrastructure within cities, with Israelis waking up to scenes of destruction. 

    There is a cruel irony at play. A state that has institutionalized the destruction of homes, memories, and lives in Gaza now cries foul. It flagrantly violates every norm — legal, moral, humanitarian — only to invoke those same norms when violence reaches its own doorstep. Overnight, the architecture of impunity that it has constructed becomes the basis for grievance. 

    But much of the world sees through this cynical hypocrisy. The exceptionalism, the selective outrage, the performative grief—all ring hollow to those who have watched a society cheer on genocide in real time. The tears fall flat, resonating only with the hardcore Zionist base, the political and media operatives who have long served as enablers, and the Christian Zionists like America’s ambassador in Israel, Mike Huckabee, who have fused theology with militarism.

    Israel awoke to a moment of potential reckoning — but history teaches that its military establishment, and the social and affective structures that uphold it, are largely impervious to reflection. In fact, they are actively hostile to the very notion of reckoning. The idea of limits — whether of force, legitimacy, or consequence — sits uncomfortably within a system built on the presumption of impunity and supremacy. 

    For years, Israeli propaganda depicted Iran as an irrational, theocratic menace. But what, then, is Israel, if not a society governed by theological messianism armed with cutting-edge surveillance and military technology? The difference is that it is backed uncritically by both liberal and conservative elites across the West, with extensive institutional support in munitions and diplomatic cover.

    And of course, it is a nuclear-armed state engaged in genocidal warfare, yet continues to claim moral clarity. The irony is as bitter as it is revealing: the caricature it projected onto Iran has become a mirror to its own reality.

    An old adage warns: You can start a war, but you cannot know how it will end. Israel seems determined to test that truth. 

    Israel stakes its strategy on American leverage and the possibility of eventual U.S. involvement. What began as a targeted campaign against Iran’s nuclear program has already begun to morph, in both rhetoric and ambition, into something far riskier: regime change. The goalposts are shifting, the stakes escalating — not only for the region, but for Israeli society itself, which simultaneously craves dominance, fears accountability, and deeply distrusts Netanyahu’s judgment. 

    Despite that, the war is still ongoing; other Israeli operations against Iran that could induce further shock and awe are in play, while Iran is now using its various military capabilities to damage the sense of confidence in Israel’s missile shield and air defenses.

    While the regional war commands headlines, in Gaza, Israel continues its campaign of annihilation — cutting internet lines, bombarding neighborhoods, and flattening what remains of the Strip. The war may be framed as an open-ended contest of force, will, and strategic calculation, but its consequences are brutally inscribed on Palestinian bodies. The horizon of this broader war — however abstract it may appear in policy circles — is being carved, violently and unforgettably, into the lives of Palestinians in Gaza, and increasingly, in the West Bank as well. This is Israel’s current addiction to possibilities opened by war: eliminating the Palestinians, dragging the U.S. into regional war, and waiting for the messiah to redeem it.


    This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by Abdaljawad Omar.

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    A Broad Paint Brush STILL is not Enough to Express the HEINOUS Nature of America https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/a-broad-paint-brush-still-is-not-enough-to-express-the-heinous-nature-of-america/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/a-broad-paint-brush-still-is-not-enough-to-express-the-heinous-nature-of-america/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 15:15:59 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159099 “What does it mean to want to belong to an empire?” In answering, he interlaced the concept of belonging during our terrifying political moment — full-fledged war on DEI, First Amendment violations of protesters, and weaponization of American border security against students. His work is a call to action for the literature of dissent at […]

    The post A Broad Paint Brush STILL is not Enough to Express the HEINOUS Nature of America first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    “What does it mean to want to belong to an empire?” In answering, he interlaced the concept of belonging during our terrifying political moment — full-fledged war on DEI, First Amendment violations of protesters, and weaponization of American border security against students. His work is a call to action for the literature of dissent at a time when the right to dissent is under attack.

    “I came into political consciousness around Asian American causes of rights, identities, and recognitions, which were framed as an issue of anti-racism, access to the United States, and belonging to this country. Over the last couple of decades, I’ve [begun seeing] all those things as subsidiary to a greater cause of decolonization. If we recognize that the political struggles that we’re engaging in should be around decolonization, then we can recognize how these seemingly disparate identities and histories are actually really connected. To connect the causes of civil rights and minority empowerment in the United States to the cause of anti-genocide and pro-Palestinian advocacy reveals how colonization deploys all these things in order to exploit and separate us.” – Viet Thanh Nguyen

    I thought it would be an innocuous day, but one where at least some folk I might run into (300 miles I put on the old van) or just to hear on the sly people be talking about the recent genocidal “news”. On beaches, in recycling centers, in coffee shops, on sidewalks, playing pool in pubs, at a book signing and gallery opening and even a benefit concert for a supposedly enlightened community (alternative) radio station, one for which I have a show, Finding Fringe: Voices from the Edge. Here, Kim Stafford, Poet Laureate of Oregon, and it was April 9, and I PUSHED the genocide question with the 75-year-old poet.

    Here, this guy, the benefit concert guy.

    Going from last back, the concert. Yachats Community Presbyterian Church: “Keith Greeninger paints masterful portraits of humanity using powerful images that come alive with his engaging guitar rhythms and husky vocals. $20 in advance or $25 at the door. 7 pm, 360 W 7th Street. FMI, go to kyaq.org.”

    *****

    So, these liberals, and the gray hair and droopy eyes, man, and the tie-dye and hippy hats and just that weird old person disheveled look of the sort of Obama- loving “liberal,” well, I was the only keffiyeh-wearing fuck of the day.

    I was with a client, one of my other jobs, people with developmental or intellectual disabilities. High functioning, but alas, many of my clients of past always have a simple belief in prayer, a higher male god, America the Beautiful, respect of all laws, and so on.

    But these people! No talking about genocide, no talking about more Jewish American/American Jewish-Directed War. Nope. I did hear a few goofy comments about how “cool it was” participating in No Kings Day, and it brought tears to their eyes to be part of that beautiful event.

    May be an image of 2 people, guitar and text that says 'KYAQ Community Radio presents singer, songwriter KEITH GREENINGER នេករសេទមងភាយៈ "One the finest writers on the scene today. His songs always find a way to touch, inspire, celebrate. and when necessary, enrage." Mike Meyer, KRVM Radio, Eugene OR LIVE in concert, Saturday 14 June 2025 at pm As singer-songwriter, ΠAε Ke paint cate portraits OF the human an 0OI ncondition ditior WIT wilpoweT DoWE melocic mages, ngag guita rhwhmsanchu quiarthydrmsancfusky. usky ne wench vocals Yachats Community Presbyterian Church 360 W 7h Street Yachats OR TICKETS $20 in advance at KYAQ.org $25 at the Door, or Scan this QR Code'

    The revolution will not be in a free speech zone.

    Ain’t going to do a fucking thing.

    Oh, the Ukraine Nazis:

    Costco? That dirty stain is now infecting China:

    “We’d like to apologise for the inconvenience caused to our members on our warehouse opening day in Shanghai,” Costco said in a statement posted on WeChat, the Chinese social media platform.

    Do you feel that we are doomed? Yep, Israel and their tactical (sick) nuclear weapons have been reportedly used in Middle East**, and they have hundreds more and hundreds more missiles, and here we are, the Chinese so messed up by AmeriKKKa’s run on gigantic quantities of stuff, Costco, well, they are now getting close to the Story of Stuff just like the AmeriKKKans?

    *****

    In 2021, a scientific report in the prestigious journal Nature confirmed what I had been saying since 2006. “Israel” has, since its attacks on Lebanon in 2006 and those on Gaza in 2008 and 2014, used a new nuclear weapon, one which kills with a high-temperature radiation flash and with neutrons. This weapon, which leaves an identification footprint, but no fission products like Caesium-137, we now know was also employed by the USA in Fallujah, Iraq in 2003, and previously in Kosovo also.

    The residues, inhalable Uranium aerosol dust, together with the neutron damage to tissues, cause a range of serious and often fatal health effects that puzzle doctors and defy treatment. Without knowing what caused such effects, which often mimic other illnesses or result in fungal infections that kill, doctors are powerless to help and just watch the exposed individuals die. (Source)

    So, this guitar player, Keith, man, it was the same “white guy folk music,” but again, white guy with Christian allusions, you know, all that spirituality, and his song about a woman, yeah.

    But … BUT. He fucking yammered on and on and on with Crocodile Tears (just like a Scott Ritter or Joe Biden or George Bush gushes about America the Beautiful) about”this great nation, this day when, yes, we have a great country with two opposing sides today, and whichever person you voted for, well, just shows how great America is and how we all can still agree that there are many great things about this nation, and today, we celebrate our uniformed military, our brave men and women, who have sacrificed in Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan to protect our freedoms.”

    D-O-N-E. Here is the song somewhere else, and he said almost the same spiel here in Yachats, except he had to deal with the No Kings Day, and he actually thanked the country for the parade, Trump’s orgasmic clown show, thanked our country for celebrating 250 years of our military, though, that is the US Army, man, this is sickness of Chlamydia Capitalism under the glare of the former hippies and their clapping and swaying to the music of the muscle man.

    Yeah, I had a choice, man, and here I am with a client next to me, and again, here I am with fellow programmers and the president of the community radio station, and, well, in any other circumstance without the client, hmm, I would have stood up and turned my back on him, at least.

    And I have been in that situation before, not standing for the pledge of murder and the national war anthem, and well, I have spoken out at events, and asked the tough questions, and, yep, younger versions of yesterday, berating me.

    We left, as it was easy to prompt my client to leave since it had been a long day, 6 am to 8 pm, and he was tired.

    The Congress of the Confederation created the current United States Army on 3 June 1784. The United States Congress created the current United States Navy on 27 March 1794 and the current United States Marine Corps on 11 July 1798. All three services trace their origins to their respective Continental predecessors.

    Nothing to be proud of, Sicarios!

    Grenade launchers using this technology include the XM29, XM307, PAPOP, Mk 47 Striker, XM25, Barrett XM109, K11, QTS-11, Norinco LG5 / QLU-11, and Multi Caliber Individual Weapon System. Orbital ATK developed air burst rounds for autocannons.

    You all like those colors?

    Northrup Grumman received a contract from the U.S. Army’s Project Manager for Maneuver Ammunition Systems (PM-MAS) to develop the next generation airburst cartridge for the 30mm XM813 Bushmaster® Chain Gun®. The gun and ammunition function as a system and will provide greater capability for the Army’s up-gunned Stryker Brigade Combat Team fleets.

    The 30 mm x 173 mm airburst cartridge will feature a contact set fuze design with three operational fuze modes: Programmable Airburst; Point Detonation; and Point Detonation with Delay. The initial contract will fund the completion of the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) phase and final qualification by the Army.

    Northrop Grumman will also begin deliveries this year of the first airburst type cartridge to support the U.S. Army’s Germany-based, 2nd Cavalry Regiment’s Stryker Infantry Carrier Vehicle (ICV) fleet that were recently ‘up-gunned’ with the company’s 30mm Bushmaster® Chain Gun®. The new airburst cartridge in development also will support additional U.S. Army platforms to include, but not limited to, the future Stryker Brigade Combat Teams.

    The newly fielded gun system nearly doubles the range of the platform’s current .50-caliber machine gun. The addition of an airburst cartridge provides a complete family of ammunition that arms the crew to meet the challenges posed by peer and near-peer adversarial threat systems.

    Jewish baptismal: Rights group accuses Israel of hitting residential buildings with white phosphorous in Lebanon

    You like that, you dirty dirty rat(s)?

    U.S. Air Force aircraft drops a white phosphorus bomb on a Viet Cong position in 1966.

    The GBU-39, which is manufactured by Boeing, is a high-precision munition “designed to attack strategically important point targets,” and result in low collateral damage, explosive weapons expert Chris Cobb-Smith told CNN Tuesday. However, “using any munition, even of this size, will always incur risks in a densely populated area,” said Cobb-Smith, who is also a former British Army artillery officer.

    Trevor Ball, a former US Army senior explosive ordnance disposal team member who also identified the fragment as being from a GBU-39, explained to CNN how he drew his conclusion.

    “The warhead portion [of the munition] is distinct, and the guidance and wing section is extremely unique compared to other munitions. Guidance and wing sections of munitions are often the remnants left over even after a munition detonates. I saw the tail actuation section and instantly knew it was one of the SDB/GBU-39 variants.”

    Ball also concluded that while there is a variant of the GBU-39 known as the Focused Lethality Munition (FLM) which has a larger explosive payload but is designed to cause even less collateral damage, this was not the variant used in this case.

    “The FLM has a carbon fiber composite warhead body and is filled with tungsten ground into a powder. Photos of FLM testing have shown objects in the test coated in tungsten dust, which is not present [in video from the scene],” he told CNN.

    Every war has an iconic and powerful image. The Marines raising the American flag on Mount Suribachi on Iwo Jima boosted U.S. morale in World War II. A nine-year old girl burned by napalm during the Vietnam War became a potent anti-war image.

    In the Hamas-Gaza War the image has become premature Palestinian babies struggling to live without incubators.

    Some of this rant is precipitated by one of my Substack Subscribers, Bob Enough, his handle, and he’s from the UK:

    “Just wanted to comment on the quote by Lawrence – “America is neither free nor brave, but a land of tight, iron-clanking little wills, everybody trying to put it over everybody else, and a land of men absolutely devoid of the real courage of trust, trust in life’s sacred spontaneity. They can’t trust life until they can control it.” – the rest is spot on.

    Fortunately or unfortunately, I have been to the US many times on business and pleasure… and whilst there are beautiful places etc. to visit; the whole “culture !!??” and the brainwashed people are absolutely baffling to me. Just a few examples:

    1. Met a UK mate over there with his girlfriend. Anyway, whilst talking away, she stated that she was Mexican. Intrigued I asked her “where from” ?, she told me and went on how wonderful it was.

    I asked her, “how often she went “home” or back to visit relatives or friends etc….” …. her reply was “I have never been to Mexico” . !!!??????? WTF. She was born and bred by her parents in Houston, Tx.

    2. Same bar as 1. above, looked around, US flags EVERYWHERE. Went for a smoke, close to a main road and every shop had a US flag on, even the cars and vans driving past had US flags or US flag bumper stickers on.

    Same as Biden, gobbing off he is Irish.

    3. Most have no idea of the World outside the US. Stated I was from England to 1 barmaid – she was lost, tried UK, Great Britain, Manchester everything… NO recognition at all … ended up shamefully saying “London” … where her brain popped open and she stated ” OH !!, on the other side of the Hudson river” … I mean.. what can you say to that ?.

    4. You can see how they have been divided by their designations like – African Americans, Latino-Americans, Irish Americans etc etc.

    Brainwashed, uneducated creatures – the most of them. Continuous wars = “The US has been at war 225 out of 243 years since 1776” … based on 2022 and the relatives and friends are proud when their loved ones are killed in battle for the great US of A…. Mad !

    *****

    You can read the Substack here: They Just Don’t Get It — Americans are Violent Trash and Jews (most of them here) and ALL of them in Israel and Abroad as Firster’s are Natural Born Murderers

    One of my responses to Bob Enough:

    Ahh, the Ph.D’s, Bob, and even the diplomats and ambassadors, Bob, have been dumb-downed and lobotomized.

    You have a fat happy (sic) un-Culture in the USA, and the place is huge compared to InBred UnUnited QueeDom. The land of great tribes was illegally and unethically and criminally invaded by the rubble of UK and EuroTrash, mostly, and so that is what is spinning in their DNA, that group of fucking freaky group.

    Jonathan Kozol studied this, the functional illiteracy of Americans — and I have taught college since 1983 and been a newspaperman since 1976, and so my thumb has been on the pulse of that disaster of 40 percent up to 50 percent of folk not able to read a Time magazine article and discuss it, talk about main points, look at the rhetorical steps in the writing, so, then, here we are in 2025.

    Few read books, and while there is traveling, cruise ships and eating and drinking tours, Americans have been McDonaldsified, Walmartified, Disneyfied, NASCARified.

    Homo Consumopethicus.

    Take a map of the world, and leave in the demarcations, and ask Americanos to at least put down 20 countries, and you will get some bad results. Same with the US map, really bad results. They can’t even put down a dot for their own towns, with that same blank map.

    Not sure why you are looking at African Americans and Mexican-Americans as the target here. There are many Latinos who know their national origin, and same with Blacks, but again, dumb-downing is across all ethnic and racial lines.

    As Lawrence says — We Americans need to follow the red man’s path, understand the depth of the red man’s cultures.

    *****

    While the scum buckets of the Trump’s Minyan watched the belching machines of death on the ground and in the air, the belching monsters of Jewish Israel were utilizing those aspirational machines of death:

    Two months ago, on April 16, the New York Times provided detailed coverage of Israel’s close collaboration with the U.S. military in developing elaborate plans and scenarios to attack Iran. The plans required U.S. help “not just to defend Israel from Iranian retaliation but also to ensure that an Israeli attack was successful. The United States was a central part of the attack itself.” (tinyurl.com/47p3jyn3)

    The Times reported that Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, with the blessing of the White House, began moving military equipment to West Asia. A second aircraft carrier, Carl Vinson, was moved to the Arabian Sea, joining the carrier Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea. Two Patriot missile batteries and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) were repositioned to West Asia. B-2 bombers, capable of carrying 30,000-pound bombs, essential to destroying Iran’s underground nuclear program, were dispatched to Diego Garcia, an island base in the Indian Ocean.

    The U.S. quietly delivered around 300 Hellfire missiles to Israel just days before Tel Aviv’s unprecedented attack on Iran, Middle East Eye has revealed. The transfer took place on June 10 while Washington was publicly signaling readiness to re-engage Tehran in nuclear talks, suggesting prior knowledge and coordination. Two U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, confirmed the shipment and said it marked a significant weapons resupply effort in anticipation of the strike.

    The Hellfire delivery had not been previously reported. Meanwhile, U.S. forces were directly involved in intercepting Iranian retaliatory missiles aimed at Israel on June 13, according to Reuters. The scale and timing of the arms transfer now raise serious questions about Washington’s covert support for Israeli escalation, despite diplomatic posturing to the contrary.

    In summary, the U.S. military would supply bombs, jet aircraft, intelligence and political cover, as they have for the past 20 months of Israel’s genocidal campaign against the people of Gaza. This is the same essential support the U.S. has provided to Israel for 75-plus years to carry out continuing attacks on surrounding Arab countries.

    Workers World Party affirms our full solidarity with the Iranian people, who are facing a targeted, unprovoked and unprecedented surprise attack. U.S. imperialism and its proxy in the region, the Israeli military, carried out this aggression.

    See the celebration for US Army’s 250th anniversary on President Trump’s birthday

    Bob Enough — Look at the USA Today propaganda crap above, and there are dozens of photos of those in the deplorable blob loving that dirty dirty rat Trump and Company.

    Costco, Machine Guns, and LAWS anti-tank weapons:

    Ahh, not as real as the Jews in Israel?

    Then, and now:

    Army veteran dubbed Queen of Guns reveals firearms are the ‘love of her life’ and feels ‘huge excitements’ every time she pulls the trigger

    Ahh, this is fucking absurd. Vietnam?

    You don’t hold a military parade to intimidate other countries. You hold a military parade to impress the people who are supporters and intimidate the people who are the opposition.You also hold a military parade to overcompensate for the fact that a lot of your own people hate you. — Viet Thanh Nyugen

    Iran’s security establishment still does not understand where they are.

    This is an existential regime change war, not a bit of light evening sparring to be conducted in rounds of orderly missile salvos on select military targets.

    If they do not switch to a more dynamic and expansive approach which has the possibility of rendering the Zionist entity inoperable, in concert with a wide-ranging assassination programme, the Republic will simply cease to exist in what is to come.

    They seem, as has been the case since 2007, fundamentally incapable of even recognising Zionist military strategy, let alone beginning to match it. — David Miller, June 14

    Jewish State (Occupied Palestine) even goes after the rappers.

    In today’s show, we’ll be exposing the lengths to which Israel and its Western-based assets have gone to cancel critics of the genocidal Zionist colony.

    In our first report, Latifa Abouchakra highlights how Kneecap, the Irish hip-hop band, has found itself in the crosshairs of these underhand tactics for speaking out against genocide.

    Our next report reveals the duplicitous actions of the long-time music business executive, Paul Samuels, who in 2002 was a co-founder of Love Music Hate Racism.

    Iran’s security establishment still does not understand where they are.

    This is an existential regime change war, not a bit of light evening sparring to be conducted in rounds of orderly missile salvos on select military targets.

    If they do not switch to a more dynamic and expansive approach which has the possibility of rendering the Zionist entity inoperable, in concert with a wide-ranging assassination programme, the Republic will simply cease to exist in what is to come.

    They seem, as has been the case since 2007, fundamentally incapable of even recognising Zionist military strategy, let alone beginning to match it.

    *****

    No nations? It’s an all-too-easy event to mock. It’s hard to keep a straight face when the world’s rich arrive annually in their private jets to the luxury ski-resort of Davos to express their deep concern about growing poverty, inequality and climate change

    U2's Bono is a regular at the World Economic Forum

    [This year will be no different. 2500 corporate executives, politicians and a few Hollywood stars are expected to descend this week on Davos to discuss both the growing jitters about the faltering global economy as well as pontificate on the the official theme of the conference, namely the “fourth industrial revolution(external link)” (Think robots, AI and self-driving cars).

    The real concern about the WEF, however, is not the personal hypocrisy of its privileged delegates. It is rather that this unaccountable invitation-only gathering is increasingly where global decisions are being taken and moreover is becoming the default form of global governance. There is considerable evidence that past WEFs have stimulated free trade agreements such as NAFTA as well helped rein in regulation of Wall Street in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

    Less well known is the fact that WEF since 2009 has been working on an ambitious project called the Global Redesign Initiative(external link), (GRI), which effectively proposes a transition away from intergovernmental decision-making towards a system of multi-stakeholder governance. In other words, by stealth, they are marginalising a recognised model where we vote in governments who then negotiate treaties which are then ratified by our elected representatives with a model where a self-selected group of ‘stakeholders’ make decisions on our behalf.

    Advocates of multi-stakeholder governance argue that governments and intergovernmental forums, such as the UN, are no longer efficient places for tackling increasingly complex global crises. The founder of WEF Klaus Schwab says “the sovereign state has become obsolete(external link)”. WEF has created 40 Global Agenda Councils(external link) and industry-sector bodies, with the belief these are the best groups of people to develop proposals and ultimately decisions related to a whole gamut of global issues from climate change to cybersecurity — Davos and its danger to Democracy]

    *****

    In the famously public-school-suppressed fifth verse of Woody Guthrie’s “This Land is Your Land,” he fired a shot across the bow of the very concept of private property:

    “As I went walking I saw a sign there/And on the sign it said ‘No Trespassing’/But on the other side it didn’t say nothing/That side was made for you and me.”

    John Lennon asked the world to “Imagine there’s no countries,” because “it isn’t hard to do.”

    And in the Dead Kennedys song “Stars and Stripes of Corruption,”

    Jello Biafra sang, “Look around, we’re all people/Who needs countries anyway?”

    The post A Broad Paint Brush STILL is not Enough to Express the HEINOUS Nature of America first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Paul Haeder.

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    Israel’s Strikes on Iran Spark Growing Dissent in Congress https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israels-strikes-on-iran-spark-growing-dissent-in-congress/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israels-strikes-on-iran-spark-growing-dissent-in-congress/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 14:45:14 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159129 Photo credit: CODEPINK On Monday, June 16, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) introduced legislation, a War Powers Resolution, to prevent President Trump from using military force against Iran without Congressional authorization. This will force all Senators to go on record supporting or opposing the following: “Congress hereby directs the President to terminate the use of United […]

    The post Israel’s Strikes on Iran Spark Growing Dissent in Congress first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Photo credit: CODEPINK

    On Monday, June 16, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) introduced legislation, a War Powers Resolution, to prevent President Trump from using military force against Iran without Congressional authorization. This will force all Senators to go on record supporting or opposing the following: “Congress hereby directs the President to terminate the use of United States Armed Forces for hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran or any part of its government or military, unless explicitly authorized by a declaration of war or specific authorization for use of military force against Iran.”

    Sen. Kaine, a longtime advocate for exerting congressional authority over war, blasted Israel for jeopardizing planned U.S.-Iran diplomacy. “The American people have no interest in another forever war,” he wrote.

    When Israel launched a surprise military strike on Iran last week, it did more than risk igniting a catastrophic regional war. It also exposed long-simmering tensions in Washington—between entrenched bipartisan, pro-Israel hawks and a growing current of lawmakers (and voters) unwilling to be dragged into another Middle East disaster.

    “This is not our war,” declared Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), a Republican and one of the House’s most consistent antiwar voices. “Israel doesn’t need U.S. taxpayers’ money for defense if it already has enough to start offensive wars. I vote not to fund this war of aggression.” On social media, he polled followers on whether the U.S. should give Israel weapons to attack Iran. After 126,000 votes (and 2.5 million views), the answer was unequivocal: 85% said no.

    For decades, questioning U.S. support for Israel has been a third rail in Congress. But Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran—coming just as the sixth round of sensitive U.S.-Iran nuclear talks were set to take place in Oman—sparked rare and unusually direct criticism from across the political spectrum. Progressive members, already furious over Israel’s war on Gaza, were quick to condemn the new offensive. But they weren’t alone.

    Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) called Israel’s strike “reckless” and “escalatory,” and warned that Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. into a broader war. Rep. Chuy García (D-IL) called Israel’s actions “diplomatic sabotage” and said, “the U.S. must stop supplying offensive weapons to Israel, which also continue to be used against Gaza, & urgently recommit to negotiations.”

    Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA) was even more blunt. “The war criminal Netanyahu wants to ignite an endless regional war & drag the U.S. into it. Any politician who tries to help him betrays us all.”

    More striking, however, were the critiques from moderate Democrats and some Republicans.

    Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, warned that strikes “threaten not only the lives of innocent civilians but the stability of the entire Middle East and the safety of American citizens and forces.”

    Some pro-Israel Democrats are feeling comfortable speaking out on this conflict because it fits their anti-Trump critique. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) said: “We are at this crisis today because President Trump foolishly walked away from President Obama’s Iran nuclear agreement under which Iran had agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and to open its facilities to international inspections, putting more eyes on the ground. The United States should now lead the international community towards a diplomatic solution to avoid a wider war.”

    Adding to this diverse chorus of opposition are some Republicans from the party’s non-interventionist wing. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) declared, “War with Iran is not in America’s interest. It would destabilize the region, cost countless lives, and drain our resources for generations.” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) lamented that “some members of Congress and U.S. Senators seem giddy about the prospects of a bigger war.”

    And in a rare show of agreement with progressive critics, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) blasted the hawks in both parties. “We’ve been told for the past 20 years that Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb any day now. The same story. Everyone I know is tired of U.S. intervention and regime change in foreign countries. Everyone I know wants us to fix our own problems here at home, not bomb other countries.”

    Of course, many in Congress rushed to support Israel. Senate Republican leader John Thune said, “Israel has determined that it must take decisive action to defend the Israeli people.” Democratic Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) voiced full support for the strike and urged the U.S. to provide Israel “whatever is necessary—military, intelligence, weaponry.” The most crass was Senator Lindsey Graham, who posted: “Game on. Pray for Israel.”

    But these crude pro-war responses, once guaranteed to go unchallenged, are now being met with resistance–and not just from activists. With public opinion shifting sharply–especially among younger voters, progressives, and “America First-ers” – the political calculus on unconditional support for Israel is changing. In the wake of Israel’s disastrous war in Gaza and its widening regional provocations, members of Congress are being forced to choose: follow the AIPAC money and the old playbook–or listen to their constituents.

    If the American people continue to raise their voices, the tide in Washington could turn away from support for a war with Iran that could plunge the region into deeper chaos while offering no relief for the suffering people of Gaza. We could finally see an end to decades of disastrous unconditional support for Israel and knee-jerk support for catastrophic wars.

    The post Israel’s Strikes on Iran Spark Growing Dissent in Congress first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin.

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    Israel & Iran at War: Trump Is "Only World Leader Who Can Stop the Cycle of Escalation" https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-iran-at-war-trump-is-only-world-leader-who-can-stop-the-cycle-of-escalation-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-iran-at-war-trump-is-only-world-leader-who-can-stop-the-cycle-of-escalation-2/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 14:27:38 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=aedf73d008c74d7f486bb641fe46ba83
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

    ]]>
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    The Middle East as a Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/the-middle-east-as-a-zone-free-of-nuclear-weapons/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/the-middle-east-as-a-zone-free-of-nuclear-weapons/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 13:50:34 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159112 Why the focus ought to be on Israel, not Iran. Israel has 90-400 nuclear weapons. Here is what a simple AI dialogue yields. Any journalist could do it. No one does. The UN General Assembly Resolution that declares the Middle East a zone free of nuclear weapons is UN General Assembly Resolution A/RES/76/30. Title: Establishment […]

    The post The Middle East as a Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Why the focus ought to be on Israel, not Iran. Israel has 90-400 nuclear weapons. Here is what a simple AI dialogue yields. Any journalist could do it. No one does.

    The UN General Assembly Resolution that declares the Middle East a zone free of nuclear weapons is UN General Assembly Resolution A/RES/76/30.

    Title: Establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region of the Middle East.
    Date: Most recently adopted on 6 December 2021 (and reaffirmed annually with updates)
    Original Adoption: First introduced in 1974 (Resolution A/RES/3263 (XXIX))

    This resolution:

    • Calls for the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East.
    • Urges all states in the region to place all their nuclear activities under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
    • Reaffirms that the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region contributes to international peace and security.

    While it is not legally binding, it reflects strong international consensus and is reaffirmed annually by the UN General Assembly, usually with overwhelming support.

    *****

    Connection to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (that Iran has signed but not Israel):

    The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), particularly Article VII, encourages the establishment of regional nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs). The idea of a Middle East NWFZ was first proposed in the 1974 General Assembly Resolution A/RES/3263 by Egypt and Iran.

    Here’s how they relate:

    • NPT Commitments:
      • Non-nuclear-weapon states under the NPT agree not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.
      • Nuclear-weapon states (U.S., Russia, China, UK, France) agree to pursue disarmament and to help non-nuclear states use nuclear energy peacefully.
    • Middle East NWFZ Goal:
      • The NWFZ resolution builds on this by aiming for a region-wide ban on nuclear weapons, addressing concerns that Israel, which is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons but is not a party to the NPT, remains outside the regime.
    • 1995 NPT Review Conference Resolution:
      • A key decision during the 1995 NPT Review Conference extended the NPT indefinitely conditioned on progress toward a Middle East NWFZ.
      • This made it a political obligation, especially for the nuclear-weapon states, to facilitate such a zone.

    UNGA Voting on Resolution A/RES/76/30 (Example from 2021)

    This resolution is adopted annually with wide support. Here’s how the 2021 vote (Resolution 76/30) went:

    • Votes in Favor: 178
    • Votes Against: Israel
    • Abstentions: United States

    💬 Notable Positions:

     

    • Israel: Votes against the resolution every year. It has not signed the NPT and maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity.
    • United States: Typically abstains, citing that such initiatives should include all regional states in negotiations, and often expressing concern that the resolution singles out Israel.
    • Arab States, Iran, and many others: Strongly support the resolution, viewing it as essential for regional and global security.
    • Despite the repeated UNGA resolutions and support from nearly all states, the Middle East remains the only region without a NWFZ, largely due to:
    • Lack of regional consensus.
    • Israel’s position on nuclear weapons and refusal to join the NPT.
    • Security concerns among Gulf states.

    Here is Wikipedia’s very comprehensive account of Israel’s nuclear weapons and how it acquired them. It seems to have between 90 and 400 nuclear weapons.

    The post The Middle East as a Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Jan Oberg.

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    Israel & Iran at War: Trump Is “Only World Leader Who Can Stop the Cycle of Escalation” https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-iran-at-war-trump-is-only-world-leader-who-can-stop-the-cycle-of-escalation/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-iran-at-war-trump-is-only-world-leader-who-can-stop-the-cycle-of-escalation/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 12:14:14 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=4cc56e76ea58b74947310c4d41de8adb Seg1 iran

    Fighting between Israel and Iran has entered a fourth day, after Israel launched a sweeping, unprovoked attack. Iran’s Health Ministry reports a total of 224 people have been killed, with 1,277 people hospitalized, by Israeli attacks. Iran has responded by launching a wave of missile attacks on Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities, killing at least 24 people and injuring more than 500.

    We speak with Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “basically bombed away President Trump’s only possibility for a diplomatic win early on in his second term.” Vaez also argues President Trump is the only world leader with the ability to “stop this cycle of escalation from expanding into a much more disastrous regional conflagration.”

    Iranian-born Israeli political activist Orly Noy says Netanyau launched strikes on Iran to salvage his dwindling political popularity. The Israeli people are very susceptible to believing “the imaginary threats that Netanyahu uses,” says Noy.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israel-iran-at-war-trump-is-only-world-leader-who-can-stop-the-cycle-of-escalation/feed/ 0 539112
    Israelis ‘now realise’ what Palestinians and Lebanese have been suffering, says analyst https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israelis-now-realise-what-palestinians-and-lebanese-have-been-suffering-says-analyst/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/16/israelis-now-realise-what-palestinians-and-lebanese-have-been-suffering-says-analyst/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 08:10:59 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116199 Asia Pacific Report

    A Paris-based military and political analyst, Elijah Magnier, says he believes the hostilities between Israel and Iran will only get worse, but that Israeli support for the war may wane if the destruction continues.

    “I think it’s going to continue escalating because we are just in the first days of the war that Israel declared on Iran,” he told Al Jazeera in an interview.

    “And also the Israeli officials, the prime minister and the army, have all warned Israeli society that this war is going to be heavy and . . .  the price is going to be extremely high.

    • READ MORE: Eight killed, dozens wounded in Israel after Iran fires new missile barrage

    “But the society that stands behind [Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu and supports the war on Iran did not expect this level of destruction because, since 1973, Israel has not waged a war on a country and never been attacked on this scale, right in the heart of Tel Aviv,” Magnier said.

    “So now they are realising what the Palestinians have been suffering, what the Lebanese have been suffering, and they see the destruction in front of them — buildings in Tel Aviv, in Haifa destroyed, fire everywhere.

    “The properties no longer exist. Eight people killed, 250 wounded in one day.

    “That’s unheard of since a very long time in Israel. So, all that is not something that the Israeli society has been ready for,” added Magnier, veteran war correspondent and political analyst with more than 35 years of experience covering decades of war in the Middle East and North Africa.

    Peters criticised over ‘craven’ statement
    Meanwhile, in Auckland, the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) criticised New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters for “refusing to condemn Israel for its egregious war crimes of industrial-scale killing and mass starvation of civilians in Gaza”.

    It also said that Peters had “outdone himself with the most craven of tweets on Israel’s massive attack on Iran”.


    Iran missiles strikes on Israel for third day in retaliation to the surprise attack. Video: Al Jazeera

    Co-chair Maher Nazzal said in a statement that minister Peters had said he was “gravely concerned by the escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran” and that “all actors” must “prioritise de-escalation”.

    But there was no mention of Israel as the aggressor and no condemnation of Israel’s attack launched in the middle of negotiations between Iran and the US on Iran’s nuclear programme, said Maher.

    “It’s Mr Peters’ most obsequious tweet yet which leaves a cloud of shame hanging over the country.

    “Appeasement of this rogue state, as our government and other Western countries have done over 20 months, have led Israel to believe it can attack any country it likes with absolute impunity.”

    New Zealand is gravely concerned by the escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran. Any further retaliatory action significantly increases the risk of a regional war. This would have catastrophic consequences in the Middle East.

    It is critical that all actors prioritise…

    — Winston Peters (@NewZealandMFA) June 13, 2025


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    The Ignorance That Pervades Us https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/the-ignorance-that-pervades-us/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/the-ignorance-that-pervades-us/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 15:29:49 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159096 The uncalled for attack on Iran by the most insane group of people who ever inhabited this planet is expected; what do the insane do, they do the insane. Not expected is that recognized people do not recognize the insanity of the action. Put in simple. Iranians are not eager to have a nuclear bomb. […]

    The post The Ignorance That Pervades Us first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    The uncalled for attack on Iran by the most insane group of people who ever inhabited this planet is expected; what do the insane do, they do the insane. Not expected is that recognized people do not recognize the insanity of the action. Put in simple. Iranians are not eager to have a nuclear bomb. Why would they when knowing Israel cannot be attacked with a weapon that will release radioactivity in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria, and they will be labelled as international killers. An attempt to nuke anyone will be retaliated by a devastation that will erase their ancestral Persian land and its inhabitants from the Earth. It is obvious to their educated minds. Why isn’t it obvious to the rest of the world?

    The only reason that the Islamic Republic might pursue a nuclear weapon is for the same reason the U.S. and the Soviet Union rattled against one another, for deterrence. Only Iran stands in the way of genocidal Israel’s constant attacks on humanity. If Iran stalls Israel’s belligerent efforts, assuredly, Israel, who has shown contempt for the entire human race, and would even use the atomic bomb against the United States, will drop “Big Boy” on the Islamic Republic, but only if the Mullahs do not have a reprisal weapon.

    Unlike media portrayals, history shows that Iran has never been and is not now a threat to any nation. Iran has not attacked another nation and has built only defensive positions. Compared to the United States and Israel, who have started several wars and slaughtered millions of innocents throughout the globe, Iran is a cherub.

    Israel did not attack Iran to prevent Iran from developing a bomb it could never use and whose progress in attainment was at a time when Iran was years away from having something workable, tested, and mated to a workable and tested delivery system. Israel attacked Iran because it knew it had the military power to subdue Iran and could get away with the nefarious deed by reciting the usual, “we were ready to be attacked by anti-Semites and had to defend ourselves.” Now, Israel can carry on with the genocide of the Palestinians, seize the oilfields of the Gaza coast, take over the Haram al-Sharif, push the Palestinians out of the West Bank and all the way to Amman while it takes the East Bank of the Jordan River, move its checkerboard boundaries to the Litany River in Lebanon, and close to Damascus in Syria, and seize all the remaining aquifers in the Levant.

    Summarizing the previous paragraphs — Iran cannot use atomic weapons for an offensive purpose and might need them as a defensive measure to deter a nuclear attack by Israel. Israel has no defensive need for atomic weapons and has developed them for offensive tactics.

    Not realizing that Israel has attacked a sovereign nation that has not posed a threat to its people and has continued on its merciless onslaught against the civilized world emphasizes the ignorance that pervades us. No call for a Security Council meeting to defend a nation’s sovereignty. Instead we have an American president gloating over his deception, telling ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl, “I think it’s been excellent.” We gave them a chance and they didn’t take it. They got hit hard, very hard. They got hit about as hard as you’re going to get hit. And there’s more to come, a lot more.”

    What chance did Trump give Iran; the same chance he took away from the Islamic Republic when he terminated United States participation in the JCPOA, a treaty that already prevented Iran from enriching Uranium and would be renegotiated, but could not after Trump had unilaterally terminated it. Trump’s termination of the JCPOA initiated the havoc, another mindless scheme from an unstable derelict.

    Added to the distress is media interpretation of the attack, with nobody, from what I have read, attributing the purpose to Israel knowing it had the military power to subdue Iran, could get away with the nefarious deed, and then accelerate its war against civilization.

    As an example, New York Times columnist, Bret Stephens, headlines an article with “Israel Had the Courage to Do What Needed to Be Done,” and continues with “All the other options have run their course.” His closing paragraph,

    But for those who worry about a future in which one of the world’s most awful regimes takes advantage of international irresolution to gain possession of the most dangerous weapons, Israel’s strike is a display of clarity and courage for which we may all one day be grateful.

    Reworded for clarity and reality,

    Now we must worry about a future in which the world’s most awful regime, Israel, takes advantage of international ignorance to maintain unique possession of the most dangerous weapons. Israel’s strike is a display of scheming madness for which we should all be fearful and will one day regret.

    Not knowing where this madness will lead, except to know the madness will not be calmed and will lead into more madness, I will calm myself by closing Word and playing a game of online scrabble.

    The post The Ignorance That Pervades Us first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Israel And Iran Trade Deadly Strikes For Third Day https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/israel-and-iran-trade-deadly-strikes-for-third-day/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/israel-and-iran-trade-deadly-strikes-for-third-day/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 13:05:07 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=f7936c975af91381fc33e1a939e7f703
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/israel-and-iran-trade-deadly-strikes-for-third-day/feed/ 0 539018
    How Close Is Iran To A Nuclear Bomb? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-bomb/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-bomb/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:49:00 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=08722202988b9b474c7c249c36e05560
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-bomb/feed/ 0 539009
    Is genocide the new normal? Could Israel and the US destroy Iran? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/is-genocide-the-new-normal-could-israel-and-the-us-destroy-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/is-genocide-the-new-normal-could-israel-and-the-us-destroy-iran/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 04:09:19 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116126 COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    “Just do it, before it is too late,” US President Donald Trump said.

    The Western media described Trump’s and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats after the first wave of attacks on Iran as “warnings”. They were, in fact, expressions of genocidal intent.

    “The United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come.

    “And they know how to use it. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire … JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”

    • READ MORE: Eugene Doyle: Team Genocide and the West’s war on Iran
    • Iran fires missiles at Israel, kills 8, after attacks on oil sites
    • Other Israeli war on Iran reports

    FROM PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP:

    “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal…” pic.twitter.com/lsCQHkyT2f

    — The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 13, 2025

    As Pascal Lottaz and a number of other analysts pointed out on Friday, preemptive war or just war theory requires imminent threats not conceptual ones. As I also pointed out on Friday, the United States’ own intelligence agencies have consistently determined that Iran does not have an active nuclear weapons programme and there has been no change to the regime’s position since the Grand Ayatollah issued a fatwa against such weapons in 2003.

    Israel and the US may now have forced a change in that theology or calculus.

    What we are witnessing is a war of aggression designed to trigger regime change and destroy Iran — to reduce it to the kind of chaos that Israel and the US have inflicted on Iraq, Libya, Lebanon and many other countries.

    This is only possible because of the collusion of the Collective West. At the core of this project of endless violence towards non-white people is racism: contempt for people who are not like us.

    Nearly half of Israelis support army killing all Palestinians in Gaza, poll finds.
    Today an overwhelming majority of Israelis want to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians — one of the very definitions of genocide — not just from Gaza but from Israel itself. Nearly half of Israelis support the army killing all Palestinians in Gaza, a recent US Penn State University poll finds.

    Genocide has been normalised in Israel. Yet our political leaders and much of our media tell us we share values with these people.

    One of the sickest, most profoundly tragic ironies of history is that the long suffering of the Jewish people at the hands of Western racism has culminated in a triumphalist Jewish State doing to the Palestinians what the Plantagenets and the Popes, the Medicis and the Russian boyars, the Italian Fascists and the Nazis did to the Jews.

    Europeans perpetrated the Holocaust not the Palestinians or the Iranians. Israel, dominated as it is by Ashkenazi Jews, has now been incorporated into the Western project to maintain global hegemony.

    They are today’s uber Aryans lording it over the untermenschen. It is the grim fulfillment of what the Israeli scholar Yeshayahu Leibowitz warned back in the 1980s was Israel’s incipient slide into what he termed “Judeo Nazism”.

    ‘We, the Israelis, are the victims’
    Isn’t it time we woke from our deep slumber? Generations of people in Western countries were lied to for generations about the Zionist project. We were bombarded with propaganda that the Israelis were the victims, the plucky battlers; the Palestinians were somehow a nation of terrorists in their own land.

    So too, the propaganda goes, are pretty much all of Israel’s neighbours, particularly Iran.

    The propaganda shredded our minds, particularly people of my generation. It made most of our populations and all of our governments totally indifferent to the constant killing, repression and land thieving by generations of Israelis.

    “We, the Israelis, are the victims.” They weep for themselves as they rape Palestinian prisoners — and call themselves heroes for doing so. In researching stories like this I had the unpleasant experience of watching videos of both the rape of Palestinians prisoners at Sde Temein (gloatingly shared by the perpetrators) and the repellent sight of Benjamin Netanyahu’s rabbi blessing one of these rapists and praising him for his work.

    We are repeatedly told we share values with these people. I believe our governments really do share those values. I do not.

    ‘Hath not a Palestinian eyes? If you prick an Iranian do they not bleed?’
    I’m a student of Shakespeare and have spent hours every month reading, watching and studying his plays. The Merchant of Venice, a complex play with highly contested interpretations, can be viewed as a masterful exploration of a dominant society enforcing its own double standards on a Hated Other.

    The last time I watched it was a Royal Shakespeare Company performance with Palestinian actor Makram Khoury in the role of Shylock (the Jew).

    Over the centuries Shylock had morphed from a pantomime villain, to an arch-villain to, in the 19th Century, a figure of pathos, dignity and loss, through to 20th Century interpretations of him as a powerful, albeit highly flawed, figure of resistance in the face of a supremacist society.

    Palestinian Makram Khoury’s performance capped this transition and was an eloquent plea to see our common humanity whether we be Jewish, Muslim, Christian or any other slice of humanity.

    “Hath not a Jew eyes? Hath not a Jew hands, organs, dimensions, senses, affections, passions; fed with the same food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases, healed by the same means, warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer as a Christian is? If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?”

    How would our reading of this passage change if we changed “Jew” to “Palestinian” or “Iranian”?

    Only an utterly incoherent and damaged mind can continue to believe the propaganda coming out of the White House, the Pentagon, and out of the mouths of psychotic madmen like Netanyahu, Smotrich and the rest of Team Genocide.

    It’s time to wake up. If not, we ourselves become victims. Only a hollowed-out heart and mind could content themselves with turning a blind eye to genocide, to turn a blind eye to the war of aggression just launched against Iran.

    How will this end?

    Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    NZ’s Islamic Council calls on Luxon to condemn Israel over ‘unprovoked’ military strikes https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/nzs-islamic-council-calls-on-luxon-to-condemn-israel-over-unprovoked-military-strikes/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/nzs-islamic-council-calls-on-luxon-to-condemn-israel-over-unprovoked-military-strikes/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 00:41:29 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116113 Asia Pacific Report

    The Islamic Council of New Zealand (ICONZ) has protested over Israel’s “unprovoked military strikes” against Iran, killing at least 80 people — 20 of them children, and called on the NZ government to publicly condemn Israeli’s actions.

    An open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, read out to a Palestine rally in Henderson yesterday by advocate Dr Adnan Ali, said the attacks — targeting residential areas as well as military and nuclear facilities — represented a “grave escalation in regional tensions and pose a serious threat to global peace and stability”.

    “This act of aggression undermines international diplomatic efforts and risks igniting a broader conflict that could engulf the Middle East and beyond,” the letter said.

    • READ MORE: Iran, Israel trade missiles; blasts, air raid sirens rock Tehran, Tel Aviv
    • Twyford condemns weak action by NZ over Israel’s ‘ruthless’ apartheid
    • Other Israeli war on Iran reports

    The council’s letter, signed by ICONZ president Dr Muhammad Sajjad Haider Naqvi, said it was “particularly alarmed by the timing of the strikes, which come amid ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme”.

    The ICONZ letter sent to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon
    The ICONZ letter sent to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon on Friday protesting over the Israeli attacks on Iran. Image: APR

    It said the Israeli attack set a “dangerous precedent” and violated international law and sovereignty.

    The council urged the NZ government to:

    • Publicly condemn the Israeli government’s actions and call for an immediate cessation of hostilities;
    • Engage diplomatically with international partners to de-escalate tensions and promote peaceful resolution;
    • Support humanitarian efforts to assist affected civilians in Iran; and
    • Reaffirm NZ’s commitment to international law, peace and justice.

    The council said New Zealand had “long been a voice of reason and compassion on the global stage” and it hoped that this would guide Luxon’s leadership.

    In retaliatory missile attacks by Iran, at least four people have been killed and 200 wounded in Israel.

    Meanwhile, Al Jazeera’s Bernard Smith, reporting from Amman, Jordan, because Israel has banned Al Jazeera from reporting on its territory, said attacking Iran allowed Israel to deflect attention away from Gaza.

    “Israel says the focus of its military activities is now on Iran and not on Gaza. But it also conveniently allows . . . the focus of attention on what’s happening in Israel to move from Gaza to Iran,” he said.

    “Until Israel hit those targets in Iran, it was coming under increasing international scrutiny over the conduct of the war in Gaza.”


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/nzs-islamic-council-calls-on-luxon-to-condemn-israel-over-unprovoked-military-strikes/feed/ 0 538961
    NZ’s Islamic Council calls on Luxon to condemn Israel over ‘unprovoked’ military strikes https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/nzs-islamic-council-calls-on-luxon-to-condemn-israel-over-unprovoked-military-strikes-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/nzs-islamic-council-calls-on-luxon-to-condemn-israel-over-unprovoked-military-strikes-2/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 00:41:29 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116113 Asia Pacific Report

    The Islamic Council of New Zealand (ICONZ) has protested over Israel’s “unprovoked military strikes” against Iran, killing at least 80 people — 20 of them children, and called on the NZ government to publicly condemn Israeli’s actions.

    An open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, read out to a Palestine rally in Henderson yesterday by advocate Dr Adnan Ali, said the attacks — targeting residential areas as well as military and nuclear facilities — represented a “grave escalation in regional tensions and pose a serious threat to global peace and stability”.

    “This act of aggression undermines international diplomatic efforts and risks igniting a broader conflict that could engulf the Middle East and beyond,” the letter said.

    • READ MORE: Iran, Israel trade missiles; blasts, air raid sirens rock Tehran, Tel Aviv
    • Twyford condemns weak action by NZ over Israel’s ‘ruthless’ apartheid
    • Other Israeli war on Iran reports

    The council’s letter, signed by ICONZ president Dr Muhammad Sajjad Haider Naqvi, said it was “particularly alarmed by the timing of the strikes, which come amid ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme”.

    The ICONZ letter sent to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon
    The ICONZ letter sent to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon on Friday protesting over the Israeli attacks on Iran. Image: APR

    It said the Israeli attack set a “dangerous precedent” and violated international law and sovereignty.

    The council urged the NZ government to:

    • Publicly condemn the Israeli government’s actions and call for an immediate cessation of hostilities;
    • Engage diplomatically with international partners to de-escalate tensions and promote peaceful resolution;
    • Support humanitarian efforts to assist affected civilians in Iran; and
    • Reaffirm NZ’s commitment to international law, peace and justice.

    The council said New Zealand had “long been a voice of reason and compassion on the global stage” and it hoped that this would guide Luxon’s leadership.

    In retaliatory missile attacks by Iran, at least four people have been killed and 200 wounded in Israel.

    Meanwhile, Al Jazeera’s Bernard Smith, reporting from Amman, Jordan, because Israel has banned Al Jazeera from reporting on its territory, said attacking Iran allowed Israel to deflect attention away from Gaza.

    “Israel says the focus of its military activities is now on Iran and not on Gaza. But it also conveniently allows . . . the focus of attention on what’s happening in Israel to move from Gaza to Iran,” he said.

    “Until Israel hit those targets in Iran, it was coming under increasing international scrutiny over the conduct of the war in Gaza.”


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/15/nzs-islamic-council-calls-on-luxon-to-condemn-israel-over-unprovoked-military-strikes-2/feed/ 0 538962
    The Middle East is on Fire because Israeli and U.S. Imperialism Lit the Match https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/the-middle-east-is-on-fire-because-israeli-and-u-s-imperialism-lit-the-match/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/the-middle-east-is-on-fire-because-israeli-and-u-s-imperialism-lit-the-match/#respond Sat, 14 Jun 2025 15:36:58 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159064 Overnight, the Zionist entity of Israel escalated its war of aggression against Iran by launching unprovoked attacks on the Islamic Republic. The notion that a rogue ethnostate that is currently carrying out a genocide believes that it possesses the right to determine which countries can and cannot develop a nuclear weapon is both bizarre and […]

    The post The Middle East is on Fire because Israeli and U.S. Imperialism Lit the Match first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Overnight, the Zionist entity of Israel escalated its war of aggression against Iran by launching unprovoked attacks on the Islamic Republic. The notion that a rogue ethnostate that is currently carrying out a genocide believes that it possesses the right to determine which countries can and cannot develop a nuclear weapon is both bizarre and egregious as well as brazenly hypocritical, and further demonstrates that the State of Israel operates firmly within the structures of white “supremacy” ideology, colonialism, and imperialism. Iran, like all sovereign nations, has the right to defend itself from aggression and uphold its security in the face of repeated threats and acts of war. This stands in stark contrast to Israel, which operates a settler colonial occupation of Palestine, as well as portions of Lebanon and Syria.

    The idea of Israel, the Zionist occupation, claiming a moral position is absurd. And the fact that the international community continues to give Israel any credibility is a dereliction of duty and forms a vacuum of morality for all of those who do not stand resolutely against its genocide in Palestine and its attacks on Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iran. Israel’s immunity granted by Western colonial nations is a further reflection of the moral gulf between these states and the vast majority of humankind that subscribes  to values that uphold People(s)-Centered Human Rights, self-determination, and dignity.

    Israel’s unprovoked attack is another example of the lawlessness that is fully supported by the U.S. The Black Alliance for Peace (BAP) rejects the notion that the U.S. was unaware of this attack. The U.S. had the ability to stop this attack if it was serious about containing Israel’s perpetual war crimes and disregard for international law, which is a  major threat to any form of true peace. The combination of Israel’s continued genocidal assaults and ethnic cleansing against the Palestinian people, and its bombings and occupations of portions of the sovereign nations of Syria and Lebanon prove that Israel and the U.S. are the most dangerous nations in the world. Their power must be dismantled.

    To conflate Israel’s actions with Jewish values is the height of antisemitism. Zionism, an ideology of white “supremacy,” must be wholly separated from Judaism’s teachings of justice, human rights, and inclusivity. Israel is no more a “Jewish state” than the U.S. is a “Christian state.” Both are violent constructs of ethnonationalism. BAP firmly rejects the conflation of Judaism with the barbarism of Zionism, just as we denounce the antisemitic trope that equates Zionism with Judaism itself.

    Israel’s militarism further threatens global stability by spiking the price of oil by 8 percent in one night. This economic shockwave further demonstrates why we must continue linking the devastation of war with the devastation associated with the climate catastrophe that is fueled by capitalist war profiteering interests of fossil fuel cartels and the military industrial complex who both benefit from the Israeli war machine at the expense of human life and the ecosystems necessary to sustain it. Israel’s aggression is capitalism’s credit card with an unlimited spending limit.

    History will remember this moment and Israel’s barbaric acts as an indelible and ignominious stain on international “law” and cooperation, people(s)-centered human rights and the basic tenets of human dignity.

    In Response, BAP Demands that : 

    • The UN Security Council and European Union impose immediate sanctions and consequences for Israel’s illegal acts, and institute an arms embargo.
    • The international community must expel Israel from the United Nations. It has no place among fraternal nations.
    • The international community categorically reject Israel’s fraudulent claims to jurisdiction over Iran’s lawful nuclear energy program.
    • The IAEA investigate Israel’s unregulated nuclear program with the same rigor applied to others.
    • U.S. lawmakers enforce laws prohibiting military aid to human rights violators by cutting off all arms transfers to Israel or face prosecution at the ICC and ICJ for complicity in war crimes.
    • The ICC indict and prosecute Israeli and U.S. officials for continued war crimes throughout West Asia and the lawlessness of genocide perpetuated against the Palestinian people.
    • All anti-imperialist, anti-war, pro-peace movements and organizations support Iran’s right to sovereignty, self-defense, and self-determination against Israel’s murderous aggression.
    The post The Middle East is on Fire because Israeli and U.S. Imperialism Lit the Match first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Black Alliance for Peace.

    ]]>
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    Scott Ritter: “We are at war with Iran.” https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/scott-ritter-we-are-at-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/scott-ritter-we-are-at-war-with-iran/#respond Sat, 14 Jun 2025 14:13:44 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159039 On Russia’s Sputnik News, Scott Ritter, who has honestly reported on this matter for over 25 years, said on June 13, that the Trump Administration worked with the Netanyahu Administration to plan this strike against Iran and is therefore already at war against Iran, and that almost certainly America will also become militarily engaged in […]

    The post Scott Ritter: “We are at war with Iran.” first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    On Russia’s Sputnik News, Scott Ritter, who has honestly reported on this matter for over 25 years, said on June 13, that the Trump Administration worked with the Netanyahu Administration to plan this strike against Iran and is therefore already at war against Iran, and that almost certainly America will also become militarily engaged in it. He also says that the strike was devastatingly effective and was directed at and achieved three objectives: 1. decapitation; 2. eliminating air-defense; 3. greatly weakening Iran’s retaliatory capability.

    The decapitation was like what Israel had earlier achieved also against Hezbollah. Elimination of air-defense knocked out Iran’s Russian S-300 and S-400 air-defense systems, which perhaps had not been placed on high alert. Retaliatory capability was thus enormously weakened by the surprise attack taking-out much of Iran’s above-ground air force.

    Trump had participated by feigning to be negotiating with Iran and saying that Iran might experience a devastating Israeli invasion if Iran fails to accept Trump’s terms at the final talks that had been scheduled with Iran on Sunday June 15. Iran had carefully planned for that scheduled meeting. They trusted that Iran didn’t need to go undergound  yet (place all critical people and assets underground) until then. All of Iran’s leaders were to go to their bunkers, if needed, only on or after June 15 (if the alleged negotiations were to fail). The Trump-Netanyahu plan was for Iran’s top assets to be sitting ducks for this surprise attack. Iran fell for their con.

    Here are the sources:

    “Scott Ritter: US Lulled Iran to Sleep Using Nuclear Talks Deception, Allowing Israel to Strike”

    13 June 2025

    Israel has carried out an unprecedented attack on Iran, targeting its nuclear program, scientists, and senior military leaders. Sputnik asked veteran ex-Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter what just happened, and what comes next.

    The months of Iran-US nuclear talks essentially gave “Israel the opportunity for maximum surprise to achieve maximum damage,” with the strikes effectively amounting to “a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran,” Scott Ritter said. … “This, by any definition of the word, was a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran.” … “We are at war with Iran,.” … “If the Iranians have the capabilities that they claim to have and the resilience they claim to have, we will see an escalation. We will see Iran retaliating in a way that is not sustainable for Israel. But this is part of the Israeli trap to create the perception of existential struggle so that the United States will be confronted with a choice, let the Israeli ally suffer and perhaps be defeated, or to intervene and administer the coup de grâce against Iran. So, you know, we are looking at a long, drawn-out process that ultimately, I believe, will result in the United States entering this conflict on the side of Israel directly.” …

    “Scott Ritter: US Used Nuclear Talks to Set Up Israeli Strike on Iran | APT”

    13 June 2025

    “I believe that Israel and the United States coordinated very closely on this attack. This attack was a surprise attack. The Iranians were lulled into a false sense of complacency by the American insistence on focusing on a 6th round of negotiations that was scheduled to take place on Sunday. Israel was working with the United States on that narrative, saying that if there wasn’t a deal reached Sunday, then Israel would be considering an attack. This was very closely coordinated in order to give Israel the maximum opportunity for surprise to achieve maximum damage. … This was … a joint Israeli-American attack on Iran. … This attack was initiated with a decapitation strike that found many of the Iranian leaders in their homes. Had Iran been on high alert, these leaders would have been in a bunker. …”

    *****

    Anyone who continues to think that Trump is ‘the peace candidate’ is just as misinformed or stupid as Iran’s Supreme Leader was to think that the U.S. Government is serious about achieving peace instead of using ‘negotiations’ ONLY as a ploy to fool and thus defeat the countries it has already decided to “regime-change.” The U.S. regime is bipartisanly neoconservative. The only path to peace would be to replace it. Replacing one Party by another can’t even possibly free the American people from this dictatorship (which America became on 25 July 1945).

    The post Scott Ritter: “We are at war with Iran.” first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Eric Zuesse.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/scott-ritter-we-are-at-war-with-iran/feed/ 0 538864
    Israel Strikes Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/israel-strikes-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/israel-strikes-iran/#respond Sat, 14 Jun 2025 08:06:16 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=159024 Pre-emptive attacks in international law are rarely justified. The threat must evince itself through an obvious intent to inflict injury, evidence preparations that show the threat to be what Michael Walzer calls a “supreme emergency”, and arise in a situation where risk of defeat would be dramatically increased if force is not used. Reaching an […]

    The post Israel Strikes Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Pre-emptive attacks in international law are rarely justified. The threat must evince itself through an obvious intent to inflict injury, evidence preparations that show the threat to be what Michael Walzer calls a “supreme emergency”, and arise in a situation where risk of defeat would be dramatically increased if force is not used.

    Reaching an assessment on that matter is almost impossible. Evidence of such a threat by the aggressor state is bound to be speculative, concealing other strategic objectives that make that action amount to illegal, preventive war. Israel’s ongoing attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure are taking place in the absence of nuclear weapons, motivated by the hypothetical scenario that such weapons would be irretrievably developed and used against the Jewish state. Iran, in other words, was being punished for a thought crime.

    The Israeli Defense Forces released a statement expressing the rationale: “Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the Iranian regime are a threat to the State of Israel and a significant threat to the entire world. The State of Israel will not allow a regime whose goal is the destruction of the State of Israel to possess weapons of mass destruction.”

    There is even a concession on the part of IDF officials that triumphant success in the operation is not assured; Israelis needed to brace themselves before the inevitable reaction. “I can’t promise absolute success,” declared Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir. Tehran “will attempt to attack us in response, the expected toll will be different to what we are used to.”

    The Defence Minister Israel Katz offers some wishful thinking in justifying the attack. “We are now at a critical juncture. If we miss it, we will have no way to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons that will endanger our very own existence.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu preferred lashings of hyperbole. “If we don’t attack, then it’s 100% that we will die,” he declared in a video statement to the nation.

    This is the language of self-denial, both on the issue of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear option indefinitely – an unsustainable policy in the absence of peaceful dissuasion – and the belief that such operations will result in some form of contained, well-behaved retaliation. With typical perversity, these attacks are taking place in step with demands by US President Donald Trump that Tehran resort to meek diplomacy, an effort that is bound to have been extinguished by these attacks.

    And what of the threat posed by Iran? In March this year, the US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee that the assessment was “that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” But Netanyahu had already given a directive in November 2024 to thwart alleged efforts by Tehran to build a nuclear device. “The directive,” he confirms, “came shortly after the assassination of [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah”.

    The broader Israeli logic here is less the coherence of the nuclear threat than one of settling scores and crippling a rival it has long accused of directing operations against its interests, if not directly than through its proxy militias.

    As for the logic of non-acquisition, not much can be made of it. The advent of the Colt 45 revolver in the late 1800s arguably calmed the American West by granting those with less power and influence a means of asserting their will against the powerful and landed. It became “the Peacemaker”, sometimes described as “the Great Equalizer.” As part of that same logic, the late international relations theorist Kenneth N. Waltz proposed that nuclear weapons made war less likely, believing that “the gradual spread of nuclear weapons is to be more welcomed than feared.” He even went so far as to argue in 2012 that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would “most likely […] restore stability to the Middle East.” It was Israel’s durable nuclear monopoly in the Middle East that “long fueled instability” in the region.

    The invention of nuclear weaponry was a statement of intent that possessing such a weapon would be akin to acquiring the shielding protection of a patron deity. This is a lesson the Israelis should know better than most, having themselves stealthily acquired an undeclared nuclear inventory. To not have it would weaken you, diminish international standing, making the non-possessor vulnerable to attack.

    North Korea learned this salutary lesson, motivated by two supreme examples: the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003 by the US-led “Coalition of the Willing”, and the collective attack on Libya in 2011, ostensibly under the doctrine of responsibility to protect. The disarmament efforts made by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya rendered them vulnerable to attack. Lacking a terrifying deterrent, they were contemptuously rolled.

    Attempts to control proliferation have been imperfect, largely because the nuclear option has never been entirely demystified. Despite the admirable strides made in international law to stigmatise nuclear weapons, best reflected in the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, not to mention the tireless labours of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the nuclear weapons club remains a permanent provocation and incitement to non-nuclear weapons states. It is the red rag to the bull.

    These attacks will do little to weaken the resolve of the mullahs in Tehran. They are roguish undertakings, murderous in their scope (the killing of scientists and their families stands out), and sneering of international law. Netanyahu’s absurd lecturing to the Iranian populace – we are bombing you to free you – will fall flat. Most consequential will be confirmation on the part of the Islamic State that acquiring a nuclear weapon is more imperative than ever.

    The post Israel Strikes Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

    ]]>
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    Twyford condemns weak action by NZ over Israel’s ‘ruthless’ apartheid https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/twyford-condemns-weak-action-by-nz-over-israels-ruthless-apartheid/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/twyford-condemns-weak-action-by-nz-over-israels-ruthless-apartheid/#respond Sat, 14 Jun 2025 07:59:51 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116062 Asia Pacific Report

    Labour MP for Te Atatu Phil Twyford criticsed the New Zealand government today for failing to take stronger action against Israel over its genocide and starvation strategy in Gaza, saying that at the very least the ambassador should be expelled.

    Speaking at a rally in Henderson organised by the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa in West Auckland suburbs for the first time in the 88th week of protest, Twyford said: “The Israeli government is operating in an apartheid state.

    “They subject the Palestinian people under their military.

    • READ MORE: Tehran strikes back at Israel after wave of attacks across Iran
    • Other Israeli aggression in the Middle East reports

    “People who are under international law they are obliged to protect,” he told about 500 protesters.

    “They are subjecting them to the most ruthless, most brutal system of apartheid.”

    It was a story of “ethnic cleansing, dispossesion, terror routinely visited upon Palestinian people on a daily basis in their land”, said Twyford, who is Labour Party spokesperson on immigration, disarmament and foreign affairs.

    “And it is being done, not only by the forces of Zionism, but by the Western world complicit, knowing, understanding and actively conniving in that dispossession and repression.”

    Widely condemned move
    Twyford referred to the government’s move this week alongside four other countries to impose sanctions on two far-right ministers in the the Israeli cabinet, illegal settlers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, which has been widely condemned as too little and too late.

    Labour MP Phil Twyford speaking at the Henderson pro-Palestinian humanitarian rally today
    Labour MP Phil Twyford speaking at the Henderson pro-Palestinian humanitarian rally today . . . Palestinians are subjected by Israel to “the most ruthless, most brutal, system of apartheid.” Image: Asia Pacific Report

    Leading British journalist Jonathan Cook this week criticised Britain, Australia, Canada and Norway along with New Zealand, saying they may have been “seeking strength in numbers” to withstand retaliation from Israel and the United States.

    “But in truth, they have selected the most limited and symbolic of all the possible sanctions they could have imposed on the Israeli government.”

    Israel was also condemned by speakers at the rally for its “unprovoked attack” on Iran and its strategy of forced starvation on the Palestinian people in Gaza and the repression in occupied West Bank.

    The death toll in Gaza was almost 62,000 Palestinians — more than 17,000 of them children — and Israel had also killed at least 78 people in the first waves of attacks on Iran.

    Meanwhile, in a statement today, the PSNA said it was appalled at the deportation of a Palestinian New Zealander from Egypt.

    PSNA said it had conveyed to the Egyptian government its “shock and anger” at the deportation of Rana Hamida who had travelled to Egypt to take part in the Global March to Gaza.

    "This Jew stands for Palestine" and "Sanction Israel now"
    “This Jew stands for Palestine” and “Sanction Israel now” placards at today’s Henderson rally. Image: APR

    Egyptian deportations over ‘global march’
    Egyptian authorities have deported dozens of people, including Spanish, Swedish, Finnish, Moroccan, Greek and US citizens.

    The Global March to Gaza is due to start this weekend in Egypt with thousands of people from throughout the world taking part.

    PSNA co-chair John Minto said the march was to “express humanity’s outrage” at the ongoing Gaza-wide bombing and starving of the Palestinian population by Israel.

    “Egypt’s action in deporting activists can only be seen as assisting Israel’s attacks against the Palestinian population,” he said.

    “Unfortunately, Egypt has a long history of collaboration with the US and Israel to stifle the Palestine liberation struggle. This is in sharp contrast to the Egyptian people who are as appalled and angry as the rest of humanity at Israel’s horrendous war crimes.”

    Minto said the following message from Rana as she returned to New Zealand — she was due at Auckland International Airport this afternoon:

    ‘The more we will roar’
    “The Egyptian authorities, along with other governments, think that blocking humanity from this act of solidarity will stop because of them blocking people from being there and doing the job that they continue failing to do.

    “They are so mistaken — the more complicit and enabling they get in their inaction and in this case their active participation, the more we will rise, and roar.

    “We are escalating as you awaken the dragons within us.

    “We will sing louder and we will walk longer — with our hiking shoes in the Sinai desert, or barefoot towards your embassies.

    “We will disrupt your meetings, we will crowd your phone with calls and emails, and we will be the light that blinds your robotic heart and melts it alongside the lies you stand for.

    “This is not about us, it is about HUMANITY within us that is dying and being oppressed in various forms, it is about the humans enduring hell in Gaza, West Bank and Falastine as a whole.

    “Muslims, Jews and Christians together.

    “It is about NEVER AGAIN.

    “Boycott, divest — we will not stop we will not rest.”

    Pro-Palestinian and anti-genocide protesters at the Henderson rally
    Pro-Palestinian and anti-genocide protesters at the Henderson rally today with Te Atatu MP Phil Twyford speaking. Image: APR

    Expel Israeli ambassador call
    In an earlier statement in the wake of Israel’s attack on Iran, PSNA called on the government to immediately expel the Israeli ambassador from New Zealand.

    Minto said Israel’s strikes on Iran were “unprovoked, unilateral and a massive threat to humanity everywhere”.

    “This is such a dangerous action, that diplomatic weasel words about Israel are not acceptable. Israel is an out-of-control rogue state playing with the future of humanity. We must send it the strongest possible message.”

    “Israel’s using its often repeated lies and misinformation to attempt to justify it’s unconscionable violence and aggression.”

    Minto pointed to Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.

    “Even US intelligence officials have made is clear very recently that Iran is NOT on the way to produce a nuclear weapon.”

    “And neither is Iran committed to the ‘annihilation’ of Israel.

    ‘Liberation for Palestine’
    “Iran does not support Israel as a racist, apartheid state and wants to see liberation for Palestine.

    “In this, Iran has, along with the overwhelming majority of countries in the world, called for an end to Israel’s military occupation of Palestine, the end of its apartheid policies directed against Palestinians and the return of Palestinian refugees.”

    New Zealand had the same policies, Minto said.

    However, he condemned NZ’s “appeasement of this apartheid state, as our government and other Western countries have done over 20 months”.

    A "Save the world from evil Zionism" placard
    A “Save the world from evil Zionism” placard at the Henderson rally today. Image: APR


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/twyford-condemns-weak-action-by-nz-over-israels-ruthless-apartheid/feed/ 0 538804
    Twyford condemns weak action by NZ over Israel’s ‘ruthless’ apartheid https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/twyford-condemns-weak-action-by-nz-over-israels-ruthless-apartheid-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/twyford-condemns-weak-action-by-nz-over-israels-ruthless-apartheid-2/#respond Sat, 14 Jun 2025 07:30:14 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116108 Asia Pacific Report

    Labour MP for Te Atatu Phil Twyford criticised the New Zealand government today for failing to take stronger action against Israel over its genocide and starvation strategy in Gaza, saying that NZ should implement comprehensive sanctions and recognise Palestine.

    Speaking at a rally in Henderson organised by the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa in West Auckland suburbs for the first time in the 88th week of protest, Twyford said: “The Israeli government is operating in an apartheid state.

    “They subject the Palestinian people under their military.

    • READ MORE: Tehran strikes back at Israel after wave of attacks across Iran
    • Other Israeli aggression in the Middle East reports
    • Other photos and videos

    “People who are under international law they are obliged to protect,” he told about 500 protesters.

    “They are subjecting them to the most ruthless, most brutal system of apartheid.”

    It was a story of “ethnic cleansing, dispossesion, terror routinely visited upon Palestinian people on a daily basis in their land”, said Twyford, who is Labour Party spokesperson on immigration, disarmament and foreign affairs.

    “And it is being done, not only by the forces of Zionism, but by the Western world complicit, knowing, understanding and actively conniving in that dispossession and repression.”

    Widely condemned move
    Twyford referred to the government’s move this week alongside four other countries to impose sanctions on two far-right ministers in the the Israeli cabinet, illegal settlers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, which has been widely condemned as too little and too late.

    Labour MP Phil Twyford speaking at the Henderson pro-Palestinian humanitarian rally today
    Labour MP Phil Twyford speaking at the Henderson pro-Palestinian humanitarian rally today . . . Palestinians are subjected by Israel to “the most ruthless, most brutal, system of apartheid.” Image: Asia Pacific Report

    Leading British journalist Jonathan Cook this week criticised Britain, Australia, Canada and Norway along with New Zealand, saying they may have been “seeking strength in numbers” to withstand retaliation from Israel and the United States.

    “But in truth, they have selected the most limited and symbolic of all the possible sanctions they could have imposed on the Israeli government.”

    Israel was also condemned by speakers at the rally for its “unprovoked attack” on Iran and its strategy of forced starvation on the Palestinian people in Gaza and the repression in occupied West Bank.

    The death toll in Gaza was almost 62,000 Palestinians — more than 17,000 of them children — and Israel had also killed at least 78 people in the first waves of attacks on Iran.

    Meanwhile, in a statement today, the PSNA said it was appalled at the deportation of a Palestinian New Zealander from Egypt.

    PSNA said it had conveyed to the Egyptian government its “shock and anger” at the deportation of Rana Hamida who had travelled to Egypt to take part in the Global March to Gaza.

    "This Jew stands for Palestine" and "Sanction Israel now"
    “This Jew stands for Palestine” and “Sanction Israel now” placards at today’s Henderson rally. Image: APR

    Egyptian deportations over ‘global march’
    Egyptian authorities have deported dozens of people, including Spanish, Swedish, Finnish, Moroccan, Greek and US citizens.

    The Global March to Gaza is due to start this weekend in Egypt with thousands of people from throughout the world taking part.

    PSNA co-chair John Minto said the march was to “express humanity’s outrage” at the ongoing Gaza-wide bombing and starving of the Palestinian population by Israel.

    “Egypt’s action in deporting activists can only be seen as assisting Israel’s attacks against the Palestinian population,” he said.

    “Unfortunately, Egypt has a long history of collaboration with the US and Israel to stifle the Palestine liberation struggle. This is in sharp contrast to the Egyptian people who are as appalled and angry as the rest of humanity at Israel’s horrendous war crimes.”

    Minto said the following message from Hamida was sent as she returned to New Zealand — she was welcomed by Kia Ora Gaza freedom flotilla supporters at Auckland International Airport this afternoon:

    ‘The more we will roar’
    “The Egyptian authorities, along with other governments, think that blocking humanity from this act of solidarity will stop because of them blocking people from being there and doing the job that they continue failing to do.

    “They are so mistaken — the more complicit and enabling they get in their inaction and in this case their active participation, the more we will rise, and roar.

    “We are escalating as you awaken the dragons within us.

    “We will sing louder and we will walk longer — with our hiking shoes in the Sinai desert, or barefoot towards your embassies.

    “We will disrupt your meetings, we will crowd your phone with calls and emails, and we will be the light that blinds your robotic heart and melts it alongside the lies you stand for.

    “This is not about us, it is about HUMANITY within us that is dying and being oppressed in various forms, it is about the humans enduring hell in Gaza, West Bank and Falastine as a whole.

    “Muslims, Jews and Christians together.

    “It is about NEVER AGAIN.

    “Boycott, divest — we will not stop we will not rest.”

    Pro-Palestinian and anti-genocide protesters at the Henderson rally
    Pro-Palestinian and anti-genocide protesters at the Henderson rally today with Te Atatu MP Phil Twyford speaking. Image: APR

    Expel Israeli ambassador call
    In an earlier statement in the wake of Israel’s attack on Iran, PSNA called on the government to immediately expel the Israeli ambassador from New Zealand.

    Minto said Israel’s strikes on Iran were “unprovoked, unilateral and a massive threat to humanity everywhere”.

    “This is such a dangerous action, that diplomatic weasel words about Israel are not acceptable. Israel is an out-of-control rogue state playing with the future of humanity. We must send it the strongest possible message.”

    “Israel’s using its often repeated lies and misinformation to attempt to justify it’s unconscionable violence and aggression.”

    Minto pointed to Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.

    “Even US intelligence officials have made is clear very recently that Iran is NOT on the way to produce a nuclear weapon.”

    “And neither is Iran committed to the ‘annihilation’ of Israel.

    ‘Liberation for Palestine’
    “Iran does not support Israel as a racist, apartheid state and wants to see liberation for Palestine.

    “In this, Iran has, along with the overwhelming majority of countries in the world, called for an end to Israel’s military occupation of Palestine, the end of its apartheid policies directed against Palestinians and the return of Palestinian refugees.”

    New Zealand had the same policies, Minto said.

    However, he condemned NZ’s “appeasement of this apartheid state, as our government and other Western countries have done over 20 months”.

    A "Save the world from evil Zionism" placard
    A “Save the world from evil Zionism” placard at the Henderson rally today. Image: APR


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/14/twyford-condemns-weak-action-by-nz-over-israels-ruthless-apartheid-2/feed/ 0 538947
    Fijian in Abu Dhabi worried about Pacific communities in Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/fijian-in-abu-dhabi-worried-about-pacific-communities-in-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/fijian-in-abu-dhabi-worried-about-pacific-communities-in-middle-east/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 22:54:17 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116054 By Susana Suisuiki, Presenter/producer of RNZ Pacific Waves

    Fiji’s Embassy in Abu Dhabi says it is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and Israel as tensions remain high.

    Israel carried out a dozen strikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites on Friday, claiming it acted out of “self-defence”, saying Iran is close to building a nuclear weapon.

    Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel that “severe punishment” would follow and two waves of missiles were fired at Israel.

    • READ MORE: Iran hits Israel with retaliatory missiles after nuclear site attacks

    Fiji’s Embassy in Abu Dhabi is urging the Fijian community there to remain calm, stay informed, and reach out to the Embassy should they have any concerns or require assistance during this period of heightened regional tensions.

    A Fiji national in Abu Dhabi said he had yet to hear how other Pacific communities in the Middle East were coping amid the Israel-Iran conflict.

    Speaking to RNZ Pacific Waves from Abu Dhabi, Fiji media specialist Kelepi Abariga said the situation was “freaky and risky”.

    Abariga has lived in Abu Dhabi for more than a decade and while he was far from the danger zones, he was concerned for his “fellow Pacific people”.

    ‘I hope they are safe’
    “I just hope they are safe as of now, this is probably the first time Israel has attacked Iran directly,” he said.

    “Everybody thinks that Iran has a huge nuclear deposit with them, that they could use it against any country in the world.

    “But you know, that is yet to be seen.

    “So right now, you know we from the Pacific, we’re right in the middle of everything and I think you know, our safety is paramount.”

    Abariga was not aware of any Pacific people in Tehran but said if they were, they were most likely to be working for an NGO or the United Nations.

    However, Abariga said there were Fiji nationals working at the International Christian embassy in Jerusalem and Solomon Island students in the south of Israel.

    He also said that Fijian troops were stationed at Golan Heights occupied by Israel.

    While Abariga described Abu Dhabi as the safest country in the Middle East, he said the politics in the region were volatile.

    “It’s been intense like that for all this time, and I think when you mention Iran in this country [UAE], they have all the differences so it’s probably something that has started a long way before.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Did the U.S. coordinate with Israel to attack Iran? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/did-the-u-s-coordinate-with-israel-to-attack-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/did-the-u-s-coordinate-with-israel-to-attack-iran/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 18:30:16 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2e3629846e574593912a6de305cf9f8b
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/did-the-u-s-coordinate-with-israel-to-attack-iran/feed/ 0 538682
    Israel launches unprecedented attack on Iran days before U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/israel-launches-unprecedented-attack-on-iran-days-before-u-s-iran-nuclear-negotiations/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/israel-launches-unprecedented-attack-on-iran-days-before-u-s-iran-nuclear-negotiations/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:55:43 +0000 https://therealnews.com/?p=334807 An Israeli Air Force F-15 Eagle fighter plane performs at an air show during the graduation of new cadet pilots at Hatzerim base in the Negev desert, near the southern Israeli city of Beer Sheva, on June 29, 2017. Photo credit should read JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty ImagesThe Israeli army launched a series of wide-ranging overnight strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, top military leaders, and nuclear scientists. Israel says these attacks are just the beginning.]]> An Israeli Air Force F-15 Eagle fighter plane performs at an air show during the graduation of new cadet pilots at Hatzerim base in the Negev desert, near the southern Israeli city of Beer Sheva, on June 29, 2017. Photo credit should read JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images

    This story originally appeared in Mondoweiss on June 13, 2025. It is shared here with permission.

    After days of mutual threats, Israel launched an unprecedented series of strikes on Iranian soil early on Friday, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, airports, top military leaders, and nuclear scientists in several locations, including the Iranian capital, Tehran.

    At around 3:00 a.m. local time, Iranian news agencies reported several explosions in Tehran, while the Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, declared that Israel had “conducted a preemptive strike against Iran.” Later, Iranian news agency Irna reported that the Israeli strikes had targeted and killed the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Hussein Salami, as well as the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, the head of the revolutionary guard’s Khatem al-Anbiya military complex, and six Iranian nuclear scientists.

    The attack also targeted the Iranian Natanz nuclear facility in the center of the country, as well as other nuclear and military facilities in the west. Later in the morning, new Israeli strikes targeted the Tibriz Airport in the north.

    Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, stated on Friday, following the Israeli attack, that Israel will receive a “hard punishment.” Khamenei also announced the appointment of replacements for the slain military leaders. 

    Meanwhile, the Jamqaran mosque in the Islamic holy city of Qom raised the red flag, a Shiite tradition symbolizing coming vengeance. The red flag has been previously raised at Jamqaran before the Iranian response to the assassinations of Quds force general Qasem Suleimani in 2020 and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in 2024. 

    Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi urged the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to condemn the Israeli attack.

    Israeli military sources later reported that Iran had launched around 100 attack drones toward Israel and that its air defense systems intercepted them above neighboring countries. However, the spokesperson of the Israeli army said in a press statement that Israel was expecting a larger Iranian retaliation, and that the escalation would last for several days, urging Israelis to remain indoors pending further instructions.

    The lead-up: U.S.-Iran nuclear talks

    The Israeli attack came after five rounds of Iranian negotiations with the U.S. over Iran’s nuclear program in Oman, and two days away from a sixth round scheduled for Sunday. In recent days, the rhetoric between Iran, the U.S., and Israel has escalated as U.S. President Trump repeated that his confidence in reaching a deal with Iran was diminishing. 

    The crucial point of difference in the nuclear talks has been U.S. insistence that Iran should not enrich uranium on its soil for its civil nuclear purposes, which Iran considers a non-starter, insisting on maintaining its enrichment capacity.

    Earlier in May, CNN announced that the U.S. had gathered intelligence about Israeli preparations for a strike against Iran, while nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. were ongoing. This came several days after Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, announced that the U.S. “will not allow Iran to enrich uranium.” 

    Last Monday, Iran announced that its intelligence services had obtained thousands of secret Israeli nuclear documents and threatened to reveal their contents.

    The lead-up to the attack also saw the repatriation of several U.S. diplomats from the Middle East last Wednesday, including the U.S. embassy in Iraq. The following day, the IAEA announced that Iran was in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. 

    Internally, Israel’s decision to attack Iran came in a delicate political moment, following the voting by the Israeli Knesset on a bill to dissolve itself, supported by the Israeli opposition and Orthodox Haredi parties. The motion passed in its first reading and had two more readings to go before taking effect. Had it been passed, the adopted bill would have forced early elections and put an end to the current government coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    Although internal pressure on Netanyahu is unprecedented, it comes at a time when the Knesset is due to go into summer recess in the coming weeks, and will be back in session only in autumn. The state of emergency created by attacking Iran will therefore delay the legal process to dissolve the Knesset, possibly saving Netanyahu’s coalition. 

    Already on Friday, several Knesset members who voted in favor of the motion to dissolve the Knesset voiced their support for Netanyahu’s decision to attack Iran.

    The Knesset vote came after voices have multiplied in calling for the cessation of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, with some ministers within Netanyahu’s government joining the calls.

    Internationally, pressure also continues to mount on Israel to end its onslaught on Gaza, especially after its interception of the Madleen aid boat in international waters last week and its ongoing detainment of several of its passengers, including French European parliament member Rima Hassan. 

    Pressure also mounted last week after five European countries, including the UK, imposed sanctions on Israeli far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

    What the attack on Iran means for Palestinians

    In Gaza, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated even further after two weeks of food rations being distributed through the Israeli-backed and U.S.-controlled Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the controversial organization tasked with distributing aid to Palestinians instead of the UN. Israeli forces have committed several aid massacres against starving Gazans at the GHF’s distribution points in southern and central Gaza. The massacres have seen the killing of dozens of civilians at GHF sites on a near-daily basis, often after the Israeli army has opened fire on desperate crowds of civilians.

    On Thursday, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution to end the war in Gaza by an overwhelming majority. The vote came almost ten days after the U.S. vetoed a similar resolution at the UN Security Council, sparking widespread criticism.

    The international sense of alarm created by the Israeli-made humanitarian crisis in Gaza could only be topped by the new alarming situation created by the Israeli attack on Iran. The expectations of an Iranian response and the risk of an all-out regional war in the Middle East have raised global alarm among world leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for “de-escalation” on Friday.

    Meanwhile, Israel’s ongoing offensive on Palestinians in the West Bank, which has already been shaded by regional developments, continues to move further away from the spotlight. Immediately following its attack on Iran, Israel imposed a total closure on the West Bank, closing a number of checkpoints and restricting the circulation of Palestinians. Israel also closed the Allenby Bridge crossing to Jordan, the only way out of the country for West Bank Palestinians.

    In recent weeks, Israel ramped up its offensive on the West Bank, adopting new decisions that allowed it to confiscate more Palestinian land and announcing the building of 22 new settlements. This has come amid a widening military crackdown on West Bank towns and cities, most recently when Israeli forces killed two Palestinian brothers and wounded thirty Palestinians in Nablus during a 28-hour raid last Tuesday. Meanwhile, its forces continue to occupy the Jenin and Tulkarem refugee camps, demolishing more homes in the camps and preventing the return of its over 40,000 expelled residents.


    This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by Qassam Muaddi.

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    Israel Attacks Iran, Killing Top Military Leaders, Scientists; Hits Nuke Sites in Expanding Conflict https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/israel-attacks-iran-killing-top-military-leaders-scientists-hits-nuke-sites-in-expanding-conflict-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/israel-attacks-iran-killing-top-military-leaders-scientists-hits-nuke-sites-in-expanding-conflict-2/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:53:33 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2ebd2d46e01fb4dc5a93f0f56eae1785
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Why Did Israel Attack Iran? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/why-did-israel-attack-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/why-did-israel-attack-iran/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:18:11 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9cc78800fba22d199315cf6a0bbc4fbb
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
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    Israel Attacks Iran, Killing Top Military Leaders, Scientists; Hits Nuke Sites in Expanding Conflict https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/israel-attacks-iran-killing-top-military-leaders-scientists-hits-nuke-sites-in-expanding-conflict/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/israel-attacks-iran-killing-top-military-leaders-scientists-hits-nuke-sites-in-expanding-conflict/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 12:13:39 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=7290c7215c29f1e1251c711beddeac6e Seg1 iran4

    Israel has launched a large-scale military attack on Iran, killing top military officials, nuclear scientists and civilians in the deadliest attack on the country in decades. Iran has launched drones at Israel in response. The unprovoked attack, which Israel described as a “preemptive strike,” comes just days before scheduled nuclear talks between Iran and the United States. Iranian-born analyst Trita Parsi says the Trump administration appears to have been coordinating with Israel for “negotiating leverage” in an attempt to force Iran to “capitulate” on nuclear disarmament. Whether this gambit will succeed remains to be seen, though Parsi and Israeli journalist Gideon Levy say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting it does not. Netanyahu has long indicated a willingness to wage war with Iran and likely hopes to draw the United States into a major regional conflict. “This was the project of his life,” says Levy.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Eugene Doyle: Team Genocide and the West’s war on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/eugene-doyle-team-genocide-and-the-wests-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/eugene-doyle-team-genocide-and-the-wests-war-on-iran/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 11:16:31 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116039 COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    I have visited Iran twice. Once in June 1980 to witness an unprecedented event: the world’s first Islamic Revolution. It was the very start of my writing career.

    The second time was in 2018 and part of my interest was to get a sense of how disenchanted the population was — or was not — with life under the Ayatollahs decades after the creation of the Islamic Republic.

    I loved my time in Iran and found ordinary Iranians to be such wonderful, cultured and kind people.

    • READ MORE: Iran vows ‘powerful response’ to Israeli strikes, Trump urges deal
    • Editor calls for NZ to immediately expel Israeli envoy for unprovoked attack on Iran
    • Greta Thunberg tried to shame Western leaders – and found they have no shame
    • Other Israeli attacks on Iran reports

    When I heard the news today of Israel’s attack on Iran I had the kind of emotional response that should never be seen in public. I was apoplectic with rage and disgust, I vented bitterly and emotively.

    Then I calmed down. And here is what I would like to say:

    Just last week former CIA officer Ray McGovern, who wrote daily intelligence briefings for the US President during his 27-year career, reminded me when I interviewed him that the assessment of the US intelligence community has been for years that Iran ceased its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and had not recommenced since.

    The departing CIA director William Burns confirmed this assessment recently.  Propaganda aside, there is nothing new other than a US-Israeli campaign that has shredded any concept of international laws or norms.

    I won’t mince words: what we are witnessing is the racist, genocidal Israeli regime, armed and encouraged by the US, Germany, UK and other Western regimes, launching a war that has no justification other than the expansion of Israeli power and the advancement of its Greater Israel project.

    This year, using American, German and British armaments, supported by underlings like Australia and New Zealand, the Israelis have pursued their genocide against the Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza, and attacked various neighbours, including Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Iran.

    They represent a clear and present danger to peace and stability in the region.

    Iran has operated with considerable restraint but has also shown its willingness to use its military to keep the US-Israeli menace at bay. What most people forget is that the project to secure Iran’s borders and keep the likes of the British, Israelis and Americans out is a multi-generational project that long predates the Islamic Revolution.

    I would recommend Iran: A modern history by the US-based scholar Abbas Amanat that provides a long-view of the evolution of the Iranian state and how it has survived centuries of pressure and multiple occupations from imperial powers, including Russia, Britain, the US and others.

    Hard-fought independence
    The country was raped by the Brits and the Americans and has won a hard-fought independence that is being seriously challenged, not from within, but by the Israelis and the Western warlords who have wrecked so many countries and killed millions of men, women and children in the region over recent decades.

    I spoke and messaged with Iranian friends today both in Iran and in New Zealand and the response was consistent. They felt, one of them said, 10 times more hurt and emotional than I did.

    Understandable.

    A New Zealand-based Iranian friend had to leave work as soon as he heard the news.  He scanned Iranian social media and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government.

    “They destroyed entire apartment buildings! Why?”, “People will be very supportive of the regime now because they have attacked civilians.”

    “My parents are in the capital. I was so scared for them.”

    Just a couple of years ago scholars like Professor Amanat estimated that core support for the regime was probably only around 20 percent.  That was my impression too when I visited in 2018.

    Nationalism, existential menace
    Israel and the US have changed that. Nationalism and an existential menace will see Iranians rally around the flag.

    Something I learnt in Iran, in between visiting the magnificent ruins of the capital of the Achaemenid Empire at Persepolis, exploring a Zoroastrian Tower of Silence, chowing down on insanely good food in Yazd, talking with a scholar and then a dissident in Isfahan, and exploring an ancient Sassanian fort and a caravanserai in the eastern desert, was that the Iranians are the most politically astute people in the region.

    Many I spoke to were quite open about their disdain for the regime but none of them sought a counter-revolution.

    They knew what that would bring: the wolves (the Americans, the Israelis, the Saudis, and other bad actors) would slip in and tear the country apart. Slow change is the smarter option when you live in this neighbourhood.

    Iranians are overwhelmingly well-educated, profoundly courteous and kind, and have a deep sense of history. They know more than enough about what happened to them and to so many other countries once a great power sees an opening.

    War is a truly horrific thing that always brings terrible suffering to ordinary people. It is very rarely justified.

    Iran was actively negotiating with the Americans who, we now know, were briefed on the attack in advance and will possibly join the attack in the near future.

    US senators are baying for Judeo-Christian jihad. Democrat Senator John Fetterman was typical: “Keep wiping out Iranian leadership and the nuclear personnel. We must provide whatever is necessary — military, intelligence, weaponry — to fully back Israel in striking Iran.”

    We should have the moral and intellectual honesty to see the truth:  Our team, Team Genocide, are the enemies of peace and justice.  I wish the Iranian people peace and prosperity.

    Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/eugene-doyle-team-genocide-and-the-wests-war-on-iran/feed/ 0 538557
    Eugene Doyle: Team Genocide and the West’s war on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/eugene-doyle-team-genocide-and-the-wests-war-on-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/eugene-doyle-team-genocide-and-the-wests-war-on-iran-2/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 11:16:31 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116039 COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    I have visited Iran twice. Once in June 1980 to witness an unprecedented event: the world’s first Islamic Revolution. It was the very start of my writing career.

    The second time was in 2018 and part of my interest was to get a sense of how disenchanted the population was — or was not — with life under the Ayatollahs decades after the creation of the Islamic Republic.

    I loved my time in Iran and found ordinary Iranians to be such wonderful, cultured and kind people.

    • READ MORE: Iran vows ‘powerful response’ to Israeli strikes, Trump urges deal
    • Editor calls for NZ to immediately expel Israeli envoy for unprovoked attack on Iran
    • Greta Thunberg tried to shame Western leaders – and found they have no shame
    • Other Israeli attacks on Iran reports

    When I heard the news today of Israel’s attack on Iran I had the kind of emotional response that should never be seen in public. I was apoplectic with rage and disgust, I vented bitterly and emotively.

    Then I calmed down. And here is what I would like to say:

    Just last week former CIA officer Ray McGovern, who wrote daily intelligence briefings for the US President during his 27-year career, reminded me when I interviewed him that the assessment of the US intelligence community has been for years that Iran ceased its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and had not recommenced since.

    The departing CIA director William Burns confirmed this assessment recently.  Propaganda aside, there is nothing new other than a US-Israeli campaign that has shredded any concept of international laws or norms.

    I won’t mince words: what we are witnessing is the racist, genocidal Israeli regime, armed and encouraged by the US, Germany, UK and other Western regimes, launching a war that has no justification other than the expansion of Israeli power and the advancement of its Greater Israel project.

    This year, using American, German and British armaments, supported by underlings like Australia and New Zealand, the Israelis have pursued their genocide against the Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza, and attacked various neighbours, including Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Iran.

    They represent a clear and present danger to peace and stability in the region.

    Iran has operated with considerable restraint but has also shown its willingness to use its military to keep the US-Israeli menace at bay. What most people forget is that the project to secure Iran’s borders and keep the likes of the British, Israelis and Americans out is a multi-generational project that long predates the Islamic Revolution.

    I would recommend Iran: A modern history by the US-based scholar Abbas Amanat that provides a long-view of the evolution of the Iranian state and how it has survived centuries of pressure and multiple occupations from imperial powers, including Russia, Britain, the US and others.

    Hard-fought independence
    The country was raped by the Brits and the Americans and has won a hard-fought independence that is being seriously challenged, not from within, but by the Israelis and the Western warlords who have wrecked so many countries and killed millions of men, women and children in the region over recent decades.

    I spoke and messaged with Iranian friends today both in Iran and in New Zealand and the response was consistent. They felt, one of them said, 10 times more hurt and emotional than I did.

    Understandable.

    A New Zealand-based Iranian friend had to leave work as soon as he heard the news.  He scanned Iranian social media and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government.

    “They destroyed entire apartment buildings! Why?”, “People will be very supportive of the regime now because they have attacked civilians.”

    “My parents are in the capital. I was so scared for them.”

    Just a couple of years ago scholars like Professor Amanat estimated that core support for the regime was probably only around 20 percent.  That was my impression too when I visited in 2018.

    Nationalism, existential menace
    Israel and the US have changed that. Nationalism and an existential menace will see Iranians rally around the flag.

    Something I learnt in Iran, in between visiting the magnificent ruins of the capital of the Achaemenid Empire at Persepolis, exploring a Zoroastrian Tower of Silence, chowing down on insanely good food in Yazd, talking with a scholar and then a dissident in Isfahan, and exploring an ancient Sassanian fort and a caravanserai in the eastern desert, was that the Iranians are the most politically astute people in the region.

    Many I spoke to were quite open about their disdain for the regime but none of them sought a counter-revolution.

    They knew what that would bring: the wolves (the Americans, the Israelis, the Saudis, and other bad actors) would slip in and tear the country apart. Slow change is the smarter option when you live in this neighbourhood.

    Iranians are overwhelmingly well-educated, profoundly courteous and kind, and have a deep sense of history. They know more than enough about what happened to them and to so many other countries once a great power sees an opening.

    War is a truly horrific thing that always brings terrible suffering to ordinary people. It is very rarely justified.

    Iran was actively negotiating with the Americans who, we now know, were briefed on the attack in advance and will possibly join the attack in the near future.

    US senators are baying for Judeo-Christian jihad. Democrat Senator John Fetterman was typical: “Keep wiping out Iranian leadership and the nuclear personnel. We must provide whatever is necessary — military, intelligence, weaponry — to fully back Israel in striking Iran.”

    We should have the moral and intellectual honesty to see the truth:  Our team, Team Genocide, are the enemies of peace and justice.  I wish the Iranian people peace and prosperity.

    Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

    ]]>
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    Editor calls for NZ to immediately expel Israeli envoy for unprovoked attack on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/editor-calls-for-nz-to-immediately-expel-israeli-envoy-for-unprovoked-attack-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/13/editor-calls-for-nz-to-immediately-expel-israeli-envoy-for-unprovoked-attack-on-iran/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 02:51:17 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=116015 EDITORIAL: By Martyn Bradbury, editor of The Daily Blog

    The madness has begun.

    We should have suspected something when the cloud strike shut down occurred.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs to continue war so that he is never held to account.

    • READ MORE: Israel media reports of multiple assassinations in Iran strike
    • What happened to the Madleen Gaza boat activists detained by Israel?
    • Other Israeli attacks on Iran reports

    This madness is the last straw.

    NZ must immediately expel the Israeli Ambassador for this unprovoked attack on Iran.

    As moral and ethical people, we must turn away from Israel’s new war crime, they have started a war, we must as righteous people condemn Israel and their enabler America.

    This is the beginning of madness.

    We cannot be party to it.

    Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Amman, Jordan, said the Israeli army radio was reporting that in addition to the air strikes, Israel’s external intelligence service Mossad had carried out some sabotage activities and attacks inside Iran.

    “There are also several reports and leaks in the Israeli media talking not only about the assassination of the top chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard but rather a very large number of senior military commanders in addition to prominent academics and nuclear scientists,” she said.

    “This is a very large-scale attack, not just on military installations, but also on the people who could potentially be making decisions about what Iran can do next, how Iran can respond to this attack that continues as we speak.”


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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    Iranian-American journalist Reza Valizadeh on hunger strike in Evin Prison  https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/09/iranian-american-journalist-reza-valizadeh-on-hunger-strike-in-evin-prison/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/09/iranian-american-journalist-reza-valizadeh-on-hunger-strike-in-evin-prison/#respond Mon, 09 Jun 2025 18:55:38 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=486863 Paris, June 9, 2025—Iranian-American journalist Reza Valizadeh, who is serving a 10-year sentence in Tehran’s Evin Prison, launched a hunger strike on June 7 to protest the seizure of his essential documents, including his birth certificate, which he needs to manage his legal affairs and protect his assets abroad.

    Valizadeh, a former Radio Farda reporter, returned to Iran on March 6, 2024, after 14 years in exile. He was immediately detained by agents of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ministry of Intelligence, and later sentenced in two expedited court sessions for “collaboration with a hostile government,” without specifying which government in the charges or conviction. His appeal was denied.

    “The Committee to Protect Journalists condemns the Iranian authorities’ confiscation of Iranian-American journalist Reza Valizadeh’s identity documents, which is part of a broader pattern of using asset confiscation to punish and silence dissenting voices,” said CPJ Regional Director Sara Qudah. “Targeting imprisoned journalists in this way is meant to further isolate them and intimidate others. Iranian authorities must return Valizadeh’s documents without delay and end the use of asset confiscation as a tool of repression against independent journalism.” 

    The authorities have also moved to seize assets belonging to Valizadeh and his family, according to London-based news outlet Iran International. Without access to his identification documents, Valizadeh is no longer able to manage his property-related affairs for local and foreign assets. Iran International noted a growing pattern of such punitive measures targeting imprisoned dual nationals.

    This is Valizadeh’s second hunger strike; he previously protested in March 2024 over what he called his “sham trial,” ending it after six days due to concern for his mother, who went on the strike with him.

    In a separate case, Tehran prosecutors opened proceedings against financial journalist Marziye Mahmoodi over a tweet about a national cooking oil shortage. She was accused of “spreading falsehoods,” according to her social media post. The press freedom group Defending Free Flow of Information in Iran said the case reflects growing pressure on journalists who cover economic issues.

    CPJ emailed the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York for comment on Valizadeh but did not receive a response.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Committee to Protect Journalists.

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    Trump sabotaging his own Iran diplomacy https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/09/trump-sabotaging-his-own-iran-diplomacy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/09/trump-sabotaging-his-own-iran-diplomacy/#respond Mon, 09 Jun 2025 05:54:06 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=81659fa8be026b775e7cdbb91cdca124
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Max Blumenthal reports back from Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/06/max-blumenthal-reports-back-from-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/06/max-blumenthal-reports-back-from-iran/#respond Fri, 06 Jun 2025 01:12:58 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1e5afa5653ed5c892d79d34fb3ed55f9
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Iran escalates harassment of BBC Persian journalists’ families  https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/05/iran-escalates-harassment-of-bbc-persian-journalists-families/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/06/05/iran-escalates-harassment-of-bbc-persian-journalists-families/#respond Thu, 05 Jun 2025 17:43:05 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=486001 Paris, June 5, 2025—The Committee to Protect Journalists is alarmed by a new wave of harassment by Iranian authorities targeting the Iranian families of BBC journalists as part of a broader campaign of repression beyond the Islamic Republic’s borders. 

    BBC Persian journalists in London told The Guardian and CPJ that their families back in Iran have faced threats in recent months, including interrogations, travel bans, asset seizure warnings, and passport confiscations. BBC Director-General Tim Davie said in a statement that the Iranian government’s campaign represented a “significant and increasingly alarming escalation” against the news outlet.

    “The Iranian government’s escalating harassment of BBC Persian journalists’ families is a deliberate attempt to silence the press,” said CPJ Regional Director Sara Qudah. “Interrogations, passport seizures, and other threats are tools of transnational repression, and a direct assault on press freedom and human dignity.”

    Rozita Lotfi, the news editor of BBC Persian, told CPJ that the intimidation began with the 2009 launch of BBC Persian’s TV channel, calling it “a testament to the impact and reach of our independent and impartial journalism.” 

    “No journalist should have to pay the personal price we are paying, and no family member should ever be punished because of our work,” Behrang Tajdin, a BBC Persian correspondent, told CPJ.

    The developments come weeks after British police charged three Iranian nationals in a counterterrorism investigation involving alleged plots against Iran-linked targets in the U.K., including journalists. 

    CPJ emailed the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment but did not receive a response.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Staff.

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    Seven European nations jointly call for urgent action over Israel’s starvation blockade on Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/18/seven-european-nations-jointly-call-for-urgent-action-over-israels-starvation-blockade-on-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/18/seven-european-nations-jointly-call-for-urgent-action-over-israels-starvation-blockade-on-gaza/#respond Sun, 18 May 2025 11:08:04 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=114856 Asia Pacific Report

    Seven European nations have called on Israel to “immediately reverse” its military operations against Gaza and lift the food and water blockade on the besieged enclave.

    They have also called on all parties to immediately engage with “renewed urgency and good faith” for a ceasefire and release of all hostages.

    The seven countries are Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Slovenia, and Spain.

    • READ MORE: ‘Cracks are opening up’ in Western complicity over Gaza genocide, says Minto
    • Why the wall of silence on the Gaza genocide is finally starting to crack
    • Other Israeli war on Gaza reports

    They declared that they would be silent in the face of the man-made humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza that has so far killed more than 50,000 men, women and children.

    Israeli forces continue bombarding Gaza yesterday, killing at least 125 Palestinians, including 36 in the so-called “safe zone” of al-Mawasi.

    The intensified Israeli attacks have rendered all the public hospitals in northern Gaza out of service, said the Health Ministry.

    The joint statement
    The joint statement signed by the leaders of all seven countries said:

    “We will not be silent in front of the man-made humanitarian catastrophe that is taking place before our eyes in Gaza. More than 50.000 men, women, and children have lost their lives. Many more could starve to death in the coming days and weeks unless immediate action is taken.

    “We call upon the government of Israel to immediately reverse its current policy, refrain from further military operations and fully lift the blockade, ensuring safe, rapid and unimpeded humanitarian aid to be distributed throughout the Gaza strip by international humanitarian actors and according to humanitarian principles. United Nations and humanitarian organisations, including UNRWA, must be supported and granted safe and unimpeded access.

    “We call upon all parties to immediately engage with renewed urgency and good faith in negotiations on a ceasefire and the release of all hostages, and acknowledge the important role played by the United States, Egypt and Qatar in this regard.

    “This is the basis upon which we can build a sustainable, just and comprehensive peace, based on the implementation of the two-State solution. We will continue to support the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination, and work in the framework of the United Nations and with other actors, like the Arab League and Arab and Islamic States, to move forward to achieve a peaceful and sustainable solution. Only peace can bring security for Palestinians, Israelis and the region, and only respect for international law can secure lasting peace.

    “We also condemn the further escalation in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, with increased settler violence, the expansion of illegal settlements and intensified Israel military operations. Forced displacement or the expulsion of the Palestinian people, by any means, is unacceptable and would constitute a breach of international law. We reject any such plans or attempts at demographic change.

    “We must assume the responsibility to stop this devastation.”

    The letter was signed by Kristrún Frostadóttir, Prime Minister of Iceland; Micheál Martin, Taoiseach of Ireland; Luc Frieden, Prime Minister of Luxembourg; Robert Abela, Prime Minister of Malta; Jonas Gahr Støre, Prime Minister of Norway; Robert Golob, Prime Minister of Slovenia; and Pedro Sánchez, President of Spain.

    Gaza proves global system ‘incapable of solving issues’
    Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, says the crisis in Gaza has once again demonstrated that “the pillars of the international system are incapable of resolving such issues”, reports Al Jazeera.

    It also showed “that the fate of the [Middle East] region cannot and should not remain at the mercy of extra-regional powers”, he said during a speech at the Tehran Dialogue Forum.

    “What is currently presented by these powers as the ‘regional reality’ is, in fact, a reflection of deeply constructed narratives and interpretations, shaped solely based on their own interests,” Iran’s top diplomat said.

    He said these narratives must be redefined and corrected from within the region itself.

    “West Asia is in dire need of a fundamental reassessment of how it views itself,” Araghchi said.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    While Israel Wanted to Bomb Iran, Trump Pushes Talks; But in Gaza, Israel’s Mass Killings Continue https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/14/while-israel-wanted-to-bomb-iran-trump-pushes-talks-but-in-gaza-israels-mass-killings-continue/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/14/while-israel-wanted-to-bomb-iran-trump-pushes-talks-but-in-gaza-israels-mass-killings-continue/#respond Wed, 14 May 2025 12:30:52 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=626f0708648ac646e353f761926e1eed Trumpnetanyahu

    Amid President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East, we continue our interview with DAWN’s Sarah Leah Whitson and HuffPost's Akbar Shahid Ahmed about Trump's acceptance of a luxury plane gifted to him by the Qatari government, nuclear negotiations with Iran and Saudi Arabia, a less cooperative relationship with Israel and more.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/14/while-israel-wanted-to-bomb-iran-trump-pushes-talks-but-in-gaza-israels-mass-killings-continue/feed/ 0 532936
    ‘Cutting off communications’ – did Trump really just turn his back on Israel? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/11/cutting-off-communications-did-trump-really-just-turn-his-back-on-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/11/cutting-off-communications-did-trump-really-just-turn-his-back-on-israel/#respond Sun, 11 May 2025 12:27:10 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=114516 ANALYSIS: By Robert Inlakesh

    Israel is in a weak position and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremism knows no bounds. The only other way around an eventual regional war is the ousting of the Israeli prime minister.

    US President Donald Trump has closed his line of communication with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to various reports citing officials.

    This comes amid alleged growing pressure on Israel regarding Gaza and the abrupt halt to American operations against Ansarallah in Yemen. So, is this all an act or is the US finally pressuring Israel?

    • READ MORE: Israeli protesters in Tel Aviv demand an end to war on Gaza
    • Other Israeli war on Gaza reports

    On May 1, news broke that President Donald Trump had suddenly ousted his national security advisor Mike Waltz. According to a Washington Post article on the issue, the ouster was in part a response to Waltz’s undermining of the President, for having engaged in intense coordination with Israeli PM Netanyahu regarding the issue of attacking Iran prior to the Israeli Premier’s visit to the Oval Office.

    Some analysts, considering that Waltz has been pushing for a war on Iran, argued that his ouster was a signal that the Trump administration’s pro-diplomacy voices were pushing back against the hawks.

    This shift also came at a time when Iran-US talks had stalled, largely thanks to a pressure campaign from the Israel Lobby, leading US think tanks and Israeli officials like Ron Dermer.

    Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Trump publicly announced the end to a campaign designed to destroy/degrade Yemen’s Ansarallah-led government in Sana’a on May 6.

    Israeli leadership shocked
    According to Israeli media, citing government sources, the leadership in Tel Aviv was shocked by the move to end operations against Yemen, essentially leaving the Israelis to deal with Ansarallah alone.

    After this, more information began to leak, originating from the Israeli Hebrew-language media, claiming that the Trump administration was demanding Israel reach an agreement for aid to be delivered to Gaza, in addition to signing a ceasefire agreement.

    The other major claim is that President Trump has grown so frustrated with Netanyahu that he has cut communication with him directly.

    Although neither side has officially clarified details on the reported rift between the two sides, a few days ago the Israeli prime minister released a social media video claiming that he would act alone to defend Israel.

    On Friday morning, another update came in that American Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth would be cancelling his planned visit to Tel Aviv.


    Can Trump and Netanyahu remake the Middle East?       Video: Palestine Chronicle

    Is the US finally standing up to Israel?
    In order to assess this issue correctly, we have to place all of the above-mentioned developments into their proper context.

    The issue must also be prefaced on the fact that every member of the Trump government is pro-Israeli to the hilt and has received significant backing from the Israel Lobby.

    Mike Waltz was indeed fired and according to leaked AIPAC audio revealed by The Grayzone, he was somewhat groomed for a role in government by the pro-Israel Lobby for a long time.

    Another revelation regarding Waltz, aside from him allegedly coordinating with Netanyahu behind Trump’s back and adding journalist Jeffrey Goldberg to a private Signal group chat, was that he was storing his chats on an Israeli-owned app.

    Yet, Waltz was not booted out of the government like John Bolton was during Trump’s first term in office, he has instead been designated as UN ambassador to the United Nations.

    The UN ambassador position was supposed to be handed to Elise Stefanik, a radically vocal supporter of Israel who helped lead the charge in cracking down on pro-Palestine free speech on university campuses. Stefanik’s nomination was withdrawn in order to maintain the Republican majority in the Congress.

    If Trump was truly seeking to push back against the Israel Lobby’s push to collapse negotiations with Iran, then why did Trump signal around a week ago that new sanctions packages were on the way?

    He announced on Friday that a third independent Chinese refiner would be hit with secondary sanctions for receiving Iranian oil.

    Israeli demands in Trump’s rhetoric
    The sanctions, on top of the fact that his negotiating team have continuously attempted to add conditions the the talks, viewed in Tehran as non-starters, indicates that precisely what pro-Israel think tanks like WINEP and FDD have been demanding is working its way into not only the negotiating team, but coming out in Trump’s own rhetoric.

    There is certainly an argument to make here, that there is a significant split within the pro-Israel Lobby in the US, which is now working its way into the Trump administration, yet it is important to note that the Trump campaign itself was bankrolled by Zionist billionaires and tech moguls.

    Miriam Adelson, Israel’s richest billionaire, was his largest donor. Adelson also happens to own Israel Hayom, the most widely distributed newspaper in Israel that has historically been pro-Netanyahu, it is now also reporting on the Trump-Netanyahu split and feeding into the speculations.

    As for the US operations against Yemen, the US has used the attack on Ansarallah as the perfect excuse to move a large number of military assets to the region.

    This has included air defence systems to the Gulf States and most importantly to Israel.

    After claiming back in March to have already “decimated” Ansarallah, the Trump administration spent way in excess of US$1 billion dollars (more accurately over US$2 billion) and understood that the only way forward was a ground operation.

    Meanwhile, the US has also moved military assets to the Mediterranean and is directly involved in intensive reconnaissance over Lebanese airspace, attempting to collect information on Hezbollah.

    An Iran attack imminent?
    While it is almost impossible to know whether the media theatrics regarding the reported Trump-Netanyahu split are entirely true, or if it is simply a good-cop bad-cop strategy, it appears that some kind of assault on Iran could be imminent.

    Whether Benjamin Netanyahu is going to order an attack on Iran out of desperation or as part of a carefully choreographed plan, the US will certainly involve itself in any such assault on one level or another.

    The Israeli prime minister has painted himself into a corner. In order to save his political coalition, he collapsed the Gaza ceasefire during March and managed to bring back his Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir to his coalition.

    This enabled him to successfully take on his own Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, in an ongoing purge of his opposition.

    However, due to a lack of manpower and inability to launch any major ground operation against Gaza, without severely undermining Israeli security on other fronts, Netanyahu decided to adopt a strategy of starving the people of Gaza instead.

    He now threatens a major ground offensive, yet it is hard to see what impact it would have beyond an accelerated mass murder of civilians.

    The Israeli prime minister’s mistake was choosing the blocking of all aid into Gaza as the rightwing hill to die on, which has been deeply internalised by his extreme Religious Zionism coalition partners, who now threaten his government’s stability if any aid enters the besieged territory.

    Netanyahu in a difficult position
    This has put Netanyahu in a very difficult position, as the European Union, UK and US are all fearing the backlash that mass famine will bring and are now pushing Tel Aviv to allow in some aid.

    Amidst this, Netanyahu made another commitment to the Druze community that he would intervene on their behalf in Syria.

    While Syria’s leadership are signaling their intent to normalise ties and according to a recent report by Yedioth Ahronoth, participated in “direct” negotiations with Israel regarding “security issues”, there is no current threat from Damascus.

    However, if tensions escalate in Syria with the Druze minority in the south, failure to fulfill pledges could cause major issues with Israeli Druze, who perform crucial roles in the Israeli military.

    Internally, Israel is deeply divided, economically under great pressure and the overall instability could quickly translate to a larger range of issues.

    Then we have the Lebanon front, where Hezbollah sits poised to pounce on an opportunity to land a blow in order to expel Israel from their country and avenge the killing of its Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah.

    Trigger a ‘doomsday option’?
    Meanwhile in Gaza, if Israel is going to try and starve everyone to death, this could easily trigger what can only be called the “doomsday option” from Hamas and other groups there. Nobody is about to sit around and watch their people starve to death.

    As for Yemen’s Ansarallah, it is clear that there was no way without a massive ground offensive that the movement was going to stop firing missiles and drones at Israel.

    What we have here is a situation in which Israel finds itself incapable of defeating any of its enemies, as all of them have now been radicalised due to the mass murder inflicted upon their populations.

    In other words, Israel is not capable of victory on any front and needs a way out.

    The leader of the opposition to Israel in the region is perceived to be Iran, as it is the most powerful, which is why a conflict with it is so desired. Yet, Tehran is incredibly powerful and the US is incapable of defeating it with conventional weapons, therefore, a full-scale war is the equivalent to committing regional suicide.

    Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specialising in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle and it is republished with permission.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    6 media executives convicted in Iran amid crackdown on journalists https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/06/6-media-executives-convicted-in-iran-amid-crackdown-on-journalists/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/06/6-media-executives-convicted-in-iran-amid-crackdown-on-journalists/#respond Tue, 06 May 2025 13:29:59 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=475291 Paris, May 6, 2025—The Committee to Protect Journalists condemns the intensifying crackdown on press freedom in Iran, including the recent conviction of six media directors and founders, and urges the Iranian authorities to immediately cease their systematic persecution of journalists and media organizations.

    “These systematic attacks are clear examples of censorship, media repression, and obstruction of the free flow of information,” said Sara Qudah, CPJ’s regional director. “We condemn the Iranian authorities’ ongoing persecution of journalists and media outlets, which creates an environment of fear and intimidation.”

    Between April 14 and April 21, six media directors and founders were convicted by political-press courts in Iran, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The convictions involved both private and state-affiliated outlets, including:

    • Mehdi Rahmanian, director of the private reformist Shargh Daily on unknown charges
    • A director of the state-run Fars News Agency, on charges of disclosing confidential information
    • The director of the reformist newspaper Ebtekar, on charges of spreading rumors
    • The director of the official state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), on charges of insult, slander, and dissemination of falsehoods
    • The director of the independent Eslahat News platform, on charges of publishing false content
    • The director of the economic news website Nabze Bazaar, on charges of disseminating fabricated material

    The campaign of intimidation by Iranian authorities has continued to escalate. On April 22, security forces in Tehran threatened Kerman-based photojournalist Hassan Abbasi with arrest. Abbasi, the director of the banned news website Ashkan News, was summoned on charges of spreading false information.

    On April 27, Karaj-based freelancejournalist and media activist Omid Faraghat, who focuses on political affairs, was also summoned.

    That same day, security forces raided the home of journalist Mohammad Parsi, editor-in-chief of Kandoo magazine and director of two other media outlets, and seized his electronic devices. He was charged with offenses that include “propaganda against the state” and “spreading false information.”

    In the wake of the April 26 explosion at a port near Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran, authorities have aggressively sought to suppress independent reporting, with an aim to control public discourse through the intimidation and censorship of media professionals.

    Meanwhile, Nasrin Hassani, a journalist being held at Bojnourd Prison in Iran’s eastern Khorasan province, is enduring inhumane and degrading conditions, according to the recent report by press freedom group Defending Free Flow of Information in Iran (DeFFI). Hassani, a reporter for the state-run local newspaper Etefaghyeh and editor-in-chief of the social media-based outlet East Adventure Press, is serving the 15th month of her 19-month sentence in the general crimes ward, with inadequate access to medical care, poor sanitation, and denial of regular visits with her teenage son.

    CPJ emailed the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment on the suppression and detention of journalists but did not receive a response.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Staff.

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    Iran Unveils Missile Designed To Evade US Defenses https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/05/iran-unveils-missile-designed-to-evade-us-defenses/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/05/iran-unveils-missile-designed-to-evade-us-defenses/#respond Mon, 05 May 2025 15:55:55 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=a515e435dcb1d14a388fa3787aada8cc
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    The Non-explosive Iranian Bomb https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/05/the-non-explosive-iranian-bomb/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/05/05/the-non-explosive-iranian-bomb/#respond Mon, 05 May 2025 15:00:22 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=157964 The non-existent Iranian bomb has lesser importance to the existing bombs that threaten the world. United States (US) demands that Iran promise to halt pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile developments distract from the real intent of US actions — deter other nations from establishing more friendly relations with Iran and prevent them from […]

    The post The Non-explosive Iranian Bomb first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    The non-existent Iranian bomb has lesser importance to the existing bombs that threaten the world. United States (US) demands that Iran promise to halt pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile developments distract from the real intent of US actions — deter other nations from establishing more friendly relations with Iran and prevent them from gaining a correct perspective on the causes of the Middle East crises.

    The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) created a potential for extensive political, economic, and social engagements of the international community with Iran. The investments would lead to attachments, friendships, and alliances and initiate a revitalized, prosperous, and stronger Iran. A new perspective of Iran could yield a revised perspective of a violent, unstable, and disturbed Middle East. Israel and Saudi Arabia would finally receive attention as participants in bringing chaos to the Arab region. Economies committed to Iran’s progress and allied with its interests could bring pressure on Israel and Saudi Arabia to change their destructive behaviors.

    Because arguments with Iran could have been approached in a less provocative and insinuating manner, the previous demands were meant to provoke and insinuate. Assuredly, the US wants Iran to eschew nuclear and ballistic weapons, but the provocative approach indicated other purposes — alienate Iran, destroy its military capability, and bring Tehran to collapse and submission. For what reasons? Accomplishing the far-reaching goals will not affect the average American, lessen US defense needs, or diminish the continuous battering of the helpless faces of the Middle East. The strategy mostly pleased Israel and Saudi Arabia, who engineered it, share major responsibility for the Middle East turmoil, and consistently try to use mighty America to subdue the principal antagonist to their malicious activities. During the 2016 presidential campaign, contender Donald Trump said, “Many nations, including allies, ripped off the US.” President Donald Trump has verified that statement.

    Noting the history of US promises to leaders of other nations – give up your aggressive attitudes and you will benefit – the US promises make the Ayatollahs skeptical. The US reneged on the JCPOA, sent Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic to the World Court and eventual death (although his personal compromises were the key to the Dayton Accords that ended the Yugoslavian conflict), directly assisted NATO in the overthrow of subdued Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, pulverized Iraq after sanctions could not drive that nation to total ruin, rejected the Iranian pledge of $560 million worth of assistance to Afghanistan at the Tokyo donors’ conference in January 2002, and, according to the U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Dobbins, disregarded Iran’s “decisive role in persuading the Northern Alliance delegation to compromise its demands of wanting 60 percent of the portfolios in an interim government.” Tehran has always sensed it is in a no-win situation. Regardless of its decisions and directions, the U.S. intends to pulverize the centuries old Persian lands.

    If the US honestly wants to have Iran promise never to pursue nuclear and ballistic missile weapons, it will approach the issues with a simple question, “What will it take for you (Iran) never to pursue these weapons?” Assuredly, the response will include provisions for the US to withdraw support from a despotic Saudi Kingdom in its oppression of minorities and opposition and propose that the US eliminate financial, military and cooperative support to Israel’s theft of Palestinian lands, oppressive conditions imposed on Palestinians, daily killings of Palestinian people, and expansionist plans. The correct question soliciting a formative response and leading to decisive US actions resolves two situations and benefits the US — fear of Iran developing weapons of mass destruction is relieved and the Middle East is pointed in a direction that achieves justice, peace, and stability for its peoples.

    Despite the August 2018 report from Trump’s U.S. Department of State’s Iran Action group, which “chronicle Iran’s destructive activities,” and consists of everything from most minor to most major, from unsubstantiated to retaliatory, from the present time to before the discovery of dirt, Iranians will not rebel in sufficient numbers against their own repressive state until they note the end of hypocritical support by western powers of other repressive states. Halting international terrorism, ameliorating the Middle East violence, and preventing any nation from establishing hegemony in the Arab world starts with Trump confronting Israel and Saudi Arabia, two nations whose records of injustice, aggression, oppression, and violation of human rights exceed that of the oppressive Iran regime.

    Otherwise, it will occur on a Sunday morning; always occurs in the early hours on the day of rest. It will come with a roar greater than the sum of all shrieks and screams ever uttered by humankind, rip across fields and cities, and burn through the flesh of a part of the world’s population.

    The post The Non-explosive Iranian Bomb first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Iran Can Save the Tumbling Trump https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/30/iran-can-save-the-tumbling-trump/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/30/iran-can-save-the-tumbling-trump/#respond Wed, 30 Apr 2025 14:55:15 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=157837 The man who behaves as if he is saving the world cannot save himself. He is tumbling fast, but, if he seizes the moment, he can recreate himself and gain an exalted place in history — Trump triumphant, if Iran permits. In his first term, Trump left the White House with the country in a […]

    The post Iran Can Save the Tumbling Trump first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    The man who behaves as if he is saving the world cannot save himself. He is tumbling fast, but, if he seizes the moment, he can recreate himself and gain an exalted place in history — Trump triumphant, if Iran permits.

    In his first term, Trump left the White House with the country in a state of physical, mental, social, political, and economic shock — a COVID-19 epidemic, economy in shambles, nation divided, an insurrection impeded, and two congressional attempts at having him removed from office. With this enviable record, maybe not all his fault, he asserted he had made the destroyed America “Great again.” Historians disagree.

    The 2024 Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey surveyed 525 historians and political science scholars. Abraham Lincoln topped the list, with Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt, George Washington, Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt, and Thomas Jefferson rounding out the top five.

    The results of a poll released on Presidents Day weekend rank Biden as the 14th greatest president in American history, coming in ahead of the likes of Presidents Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, and Ulysses S. Grant. His predecessor and likely Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, found himself in dead last at 45th on the list.

    Donald Trump rates lowest (10.92), behind James Buchanan (16.71), Andrew Johnson (21.56), Franklin Pierce (24.6), William Henry Harrison (26.01), and Warren Harding (27.76). Barack Obama has risen nine places (from #16 to #7), as has Ulysses S. Grant (from #26 to #17), while Andrew Jackson has fallen 12 places (from #9 to #21) and Calvin Coolidge has dropped 7 spots (from #27 to #34).

    After successor and predecessor Joe Biden managed to end the COVID-19 epidemic and revive the economy, while keeping the country divided, the dead last Trump entered his second term by announcing he is going to make the United States greater. Tariffs, which many prominent economists and Wall Street analysts say will cause a RECESSION, will revive the industrial base. Peace and stability will return to the Slavic nations and to the peoples of the Middle East. The dead last man is quoted as having said, “But it (Ukraine/Russian conflict) is a very easy negotiation to take place. I will have it solved within one day, a peace between them.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio now suggests “the U.S. might soon back away from negotiations altogether without more progress.”

    The most grievous faux pas in Trump’s jumbled policies is his repudiation of The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement promoted by the Obama administration, which limited the Iranian nuclear program in return for sanctions relief and other provisions. The agreement was finalized on 14 July 2015, between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council together with the European Union.

    For 13 years, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges.

    For 15 years, Iran agreed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67% and not to build heavy-water facilities.

    For 10 years, uranium enrichment would be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges. Other facilities would be converted to avoid proliferation risks. IAEA would have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities to monitor compliance. In return for verifiably abiding by those provisions, Iran would receive relief from U.S., European Union, and United Nations S.C. nuclear-related sanctions.

    To President Donald J. Trump “the Iran Deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States ever entered.” He inaugurated the PROTECTING AMERICA FROM A BAD DEAL, terminating the United States’ participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and re-imposing sanctions lifted under the deal. Misinformation, exaggerations, and wild predictions steered America from A GREAT DEAL into a BAD FUTURE.

    • President Trump is terminating United States participation in the JCPOA, as it failed to protect America’s national security interests.
    • The JCPOA enriched the Iranian regime and enabled its malign behavior, while at best delaying its ability to pursue nuclear weapons and allowing it to preserve nuclear research and development.
    • The re-imposed sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy, such as its energy, petrochemical, and financial sectors.
    • United States withdrawal from the JCPOA will pressure the Iranian regime to alter its course of malign activities and ensure that Iranian bad acts are no longer rewarded. As a result, both Iran and its regional proxies will be put on notice. As importantly, this step will help ensure global funds stop flowing towards illicit terrorist and nuclear activities.
    • Intelligence recently released by Israel provides compelling details about Iran’s past secret efforts to develop nuclear weapons, which it lied about for years.
    • The intelligence further demonstrates that the Iranian regime did not come clean about its nuclear weapons activity, and that it entered the JCPOA in bad faith.
    • The JCPOA failed to deal with the threat of Iran’s missile program and did not include a strong enough mechanism for inspections and verification.
    • The JCPOA foolishly gave the Iranian regime a windfall of cash and access to the international financial system for trade and investment.
    • *Instead of using the money from the JCPOA to support the Iranian people at home, the regime has instead funded a military buildup and continues to fund its terrorist proxies, such as Hizballah and Hamas.

    Because of Trump’s decision to leave the JCPOA, everything the JCPOA managed to prevent has been encouraged. The Islamic State has ballistic missiles, drones, anti-ballistic missiles, and uranium stock at 60 percent enrichment, close to having material for a nuclear bomb.

    WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) – Iran could make enough fissile for one nuclear bomb in “about 12 days,” a top U.S. Defense Department official said on Tuesday, down from the estimated one year it would have taken while the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was in effect.

    Trump’s efforts have been counterproductive and his fast fall into oblivion might be hastened in the renewed nuclear discussions, except, wait, he can be resurrected. By playing his cards right, not the way he told Ukraine President Zelensky is playing the cards, he can rise faster than a SpaceX starship and vault himself into a page of glorious history ─ Trump can rid the world of the nuclear menace ─ Iran can help Trump to achieve nuclear disarmament. Unlikely, but doable.

    The only reason for Iran having a nuclear weapons program is to neutralize Israel’s nuclear armaments. The Ayatollahs will definitely halt their program if assured Israel surrenders its weapons, that is, if Israel has deliverable weapons to surrender. This is a fair trade and one that Trump, who covets a Nobel Prize, might entertain. Think of it, and he will ─ Donald J. Trump, 45th and 47th presidents of the United States was responsible for halting nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and for eventually reducing the nuclear threat throughout the world. Much to deliberate, much to cajole, much to administrate, and much to admire. What is the alternative — much to bomb, much to kill, much to destroy, and much for history to scorn.

    Israel will not approve, and will kick, squirm, and threaten. Without the United States support and an entire world from Tierra del Fuego to Siberia allied with the proposition, Israel will receive an offer it cannot refuse. The bitter man will smile again. His hateful disposition hid the real Trump, the man who wants to be loved by all.

    The post Iran Can Save the Tumbling Trump first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/30/iran-can-save-the-tumbling-trump/feed/ 0 530339
    Iran and the United States: Nuclear Argy Bargy https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/28/iran-and-the-united-states-nuclear-argy-bargy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/28/iran-and-the-united-states-nuclear-argy-bargy/#respond Mon, 28 Apr 2025 05:59:15 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=362017 Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the United States and Israel have been zealous in their efforts to disempower it. Israel has used its powerful hasbara (propaganda) machine to peddle absurdities about Tehran as a nuclear threat to the region and the world. More

    The post Iran and the United States: Nuclear Argy Bargy appeared first on CounterPunch.org.

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    Image by Mostafa Meraji.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.”

    Voltaire, Enlightenment author and philosopher (1694-1778)

    Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the United States and Israel have been zealous in their efforts to disempower it. Israel has used its powerful hasbara (propaganda) machine to peddle absurdities about Tehran as a nuclear threat to the region and the world.

    For refusing to bend to U.S.-Israeli demands to abandon the Palestinian cause and for standing against their hegemonic plans for the region, Iran has been the target of the most restrictive economic sanctions in history and under perpetual threat of military intervention.

    Like any sovereign nation, Iran has a right to defend itself. Nuclear weapons are a security guarantee that Iran has not sought. Unlike Israel and the United States, it has not threatened nor bombed, invaded or occupied its neighbors. However, after Israeli air strikes in April and October 2024 and continued U.S. threats, Iran has had no choice but to debate and reevaluate its long-held nuclear doctrine which regards weapons of mass destruction against Islam.

    In a civilized conflict-free world, there would be no need for weapons, nuclear or otherwise. Unfortunately for some countries, like Iran, possessing nuclear weapons may become a necessary tool for survival. For others, like the United States and Israel, the ghastly weapons are used as cudgels to bully countries into submission.

    It is important to establish that the U.S. intelligence community—the collective work of America’s 18 spy organizations—has determined that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons. It stated as much in its “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community” 2024 report: “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” Previous reports have also stated that Iran’s military doctrine is defensive and its nuclear program is meant to build negotiating leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure.

    The question then becomes why is it that the nuclear issue is front and center when the United States does engage with Iran and why has its program, in existence for more than four decades and intended for civilian energy/scientific purposes, been so falsely represented.

    Demonizing Iran has served the imperial interests of the United States and its military outpost Israel in the Middle East. Through the well financed aggressive propaganda efforts of Israeli lobby groups like the tactically benign sounding American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Tel Aviv has been successful in selling Washington, the corporate media and the American public on the provocative idea that Iran is a threat to it, the region and the United States.

    The narrative about Iran and its nuclear objectives is replete with myths and distortions. U.S. foreign policy decisions have been largely framed to protect and secure Israeli interests, often to the detriment of America’s own.

    A fettered Iran allows Israel unchallenged regional supremacy. Like former U.S. administrations, the Trump White House, in collaboration with Israel and their Arab allies, are determined to strip Iran of its revolutionary identity and undermine its regional clout.

    Iran has legitimate security interests and concerns, fully aware that it is the primary target of Israel’s military and nuclear arsenal. A 2025 Arms Control Association report reveals that Israel—the only nuclear weapons power in the Middle East—has an estimated 90 nuclear warheads with sophisticated delivery systems in its inventory, as well as the fissile material stockpiles for at least 200 nuclear weapons.

    Iran, on the other hand, is a threshold state. To achieve the weaponization stage, it would need to enrich uranium to 90 percent purity, weaponize the fissile material and develop the delivery systems. None have been done.

    Unlike Israel, Iran is a signatory to the 1968 U.N. Non-Proliferation Treaty. As such, it is prohibited from developing, acquiring or using nuclear weapons, although it does have the right to manufacture and enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. In addition, Iran’s leaders have vigorously pursued the establishment of a nuclear weapons-free zone for the region.

    There are a number of rational reasons for the Islamic Republic to go down the road toward acquiring nuclear weapons; principally, self-defense.

    Former Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak (2007-2013), in his memoirs, for example, reveals that the regime of then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came close to attacking Iran at least three times between 2010 and 2012. Barak stated that he and Netanyahu had pushed for military operations against Iranian facilities, but they backed down after opposition from their top security officials.

    Barak also discloses that he disagreed with Netanyahu that Iran’s nuclear program posed an existential threat to Israel. He was instead more concerned about the regional balance of power.

    Some in Iran’s political class, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,

    suspect that the United States, Israel and their Arab allies are intent on

    overthrowing the Islamic Republic. Recent history confirms their suspicions.

    They point to crippling economic sanctions, covert operations, cyber attacks, assassination of nuclear scientists and military personnel, missile attacks and sabotage of gas pipelines and military sites.

    In July 2022, for example, during a visit to Israel, President Joe Biden signed a pledge to never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon and to “…use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome.”

    It is with that pledge and President Trump’s ultimatums that the United States has entered a new round of nuclear talks with Iran, currently underway. Strangely enough, it was Trump, encouraged by Netanyahu, who pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement in 2018 and imposed heavier “maximum pressure” sanctions; believing that economic hardships would drive Iranians to topple the government.

    Before the recent nuclear meetings began in early April, Trump threatened: “If they [Iran] don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” In a show of force, in addition to two aircraft carriers in the Red Sea, the White House has deployed a squadron of fighter jets, stealth bombers, air defenses and large quantities of weapons to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.

    Also, Netanyahu, incapable of remaining silent, sounded off saying that the only nuclear deal Israel would accept would have Iran agreeing to eliminate its entire program. He further elaborated: “We go in, blow up the facilities and dismantle all the equipment, under American supervision and execution.”

    The Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, reported (17 April 2025) that Netanyahu recently sought the U.S. administration’s support to conduct joint commando and air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Trump, however, vetoed the plan while discussions with Tehran are ongoing. Netanyahu is clearly intent on derailing the negotiations to insure that there will never be rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran.

    Except for a short interval during the Obama administration, when Iran and the P5+1 countries (China, France, Russia, U.K., U.S.) plus Germany finalized the JCPOA in 2015, the United States has leaned on a muscular military policy and has never been serious about engaging cooperatively with Iran. It has, however, been serious about insuring Israel’s hegemony in the region.

    President Obama’s “new dawn for the Middle East” included moving away from years of failed policies, particularly “Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm,” a 1996 initiative pushed by pro-Israel stalwarts and advanced during the George W. Bush administration.

    Following the attacks of 11 September 2001, Bush and Netanyahu set in motion the aggressive goals documented in “Clean Break” to contain, destabilize and overthrow governments that challenged U.S.-Israeli hegemony. Plans were drafted for military action against seven countries, starting with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran. All but Iran have been destabilized and/or balkanized.

    Even though the relationship between Obama and Netanyahu was often strained, Obama’s actual record in office makes him one of the most pro-Israel presidents since Harry S. Truman.

    The scale of Israel’s barbarity in Gaza and the Occupied Palestinian Territories and its insatiable addiction to expansion and power forewarns Iran and other actors in the Middle East that they must be vigilant in their defense to survive.

    Netanyahu’s jingoistic vision of Zionist Israeli supremacy has never changed. Ten years ago, he bluntly told an Israeli parliamentary committee that there could never be peace with the Palestinians: “I’m asked if we will forever live by the sword,” and I say “yes.”

    Israel may not be visibly present at the nuclear negotiating table, its influence over the outcome is, however, palpable and discernible.

    What Washington and Tel Aviv fail to understand is that they are dealing with a politically astute country, that deserves the respect it demands as a nation that has

    resisted colonizers and colonization throughout its 5,000-year history in West Asia.

    No amount of absurdities—American or Israeli—can change that reality.

    The post Iran and the United States: Nuclear Argy Bargy appeared first on CounterPunch.org.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by M. Reza Behnam.

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    Report that Trump waved off Israeli strike on Iran inflames the lobby https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/26/report-that-trump-waved-off-israeli-strike-on-iran-inflames-the-lobby/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/26/report-that-trump-waved-off-israeli-strike-on-iran-inflames-the-lobby/#respond Sat, 26 Apr 2025 05:44:07 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2eed048b4c701fb297d4b2b5ff067bbf
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/26/report-that-trump-waved-off-israeli-strike-on-iran-inflames-the-lobby/feed/ 0 529609
    Trump Massacres Yemenis so Israel can Massacre Palestinians https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/21/trump-massacres-yemenis-so-israel-can-massacre-palestinians/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/21/trump-massacres-yemenis-so-israel-can-massacre-palestinians/#respond Mon, 21 Apr 2025 15:00:59 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=157614 On April 17, US airstrikes on Yemen killed 74 people and injured 171 in a dangerous escalation of US President Donald Trump’s war against the poorest country in the Middle East. A resident of the area around Yemen’s Ras Issa fuel port told Chinese media that “among the victims were employees, truck drivers, contracted workers, […]

    The post Trump Massacres Yemenis so Israel can Massacre Palestinians first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    On April 17, US airstrikes on Yemen killed 74 people and injured 171 in a dangerous escalation of US President Donald Trump’s war against the poorest country in the Middle East. A resident of the area around Yemen’s Ras Issa fuel port told Chinese media that “among the victims were employees, truck drivers, contracted workers, and civilian trainees of the port,” and “rescue teams recovering bodies and extinguishing fires were also targeted in [US] subsequent strikes.”

    Trump’s attack targeted Ras Issa a vital lifeline connecting the isolated, bombarded country to outside supply shipments. For its part, the US administration claimed that the bombing intended to prevent Iranian fuel from reaching “the Iran-backed Houthi terrorists” in order to “deprive them of illegal revenue that has funded Houthi efforts to terrorize the entire region for over 10 years.”

    While it is US policy to delegitimize Ansar Allah (also known as “the Houthis”) as “Iran-backed terrorists,” in fact, 80 percent of Yemenis live under the Sanaa-based Supreme Political Council led by Ansar Allah, making them Yemen’s de facto government. They have a huge degree of public support, as evidenced by the regular protests of tens of even hundreds of thousands of Yemenis opposing US aggression and supporting Ansar Allah’s armed support for Palestinian liberation.

    Ansar Allah survived eight years of Saudi-led attacks on Yemen, a war of aggression (backed militarily and diplomatically by governments of the US, Canada, and Europe) that levelled civilian infrastructure and killed almost 400,000 Yemenis. Trump’s bombings will not destroy the vilified “Houthi rebels,” but that is not their goal. What Washington wants is to force Yemen to withdraw its armed support for Palestinians resisting Israel’s genocide.

    After Israel launched its onslaught against Gaza in October 2023, Yemen imposed a blockade on Red Sea shipping to Israel. As Israel’s assault on Palestinians in Gaza reached genocidal proportions, Yemen launched drone and missile attacks against Israeli targets. From the beginning, Ansar Allah was very forthright: they stated that the attacks on Red Sea ships and Israeli targets would stop once Israel ceased its genocidal assault on Gaza. During the Gaza ceasefire of January 19 to March 18, 2025, Ansar Allah did cease its military actions in the Red Sea (even as Israel violated the ceasefire 962 times), clearly demonstrating the connection between Israel’s genocide and Yemeni military activity.

    US efforts to paint the Yemenis as puppets of Iran, mindless terrorists, and maritime pirates are part of a concerted effort by Washington to obfuscate the just, defensive, and humanitarian motivations behind Ansar Allah’s actions. The recent phase of US attacks on Yemen began in January 2024 under former president Joe Biden, and these bombings received logistical support from, among other countries, Canada and the United Kingdom. After coming to office, Trump intensified the US war on Yemen. Since March, his attacks have killed more than 50 Yemenis, not counting the recent bombardment of civilians at the Ras Issa port. Reportedly, his administration is mulling a ground invasion of Yemen.

    One must always keep in mind why America is upping its attacks on the Yemeni people. It is because Yemen is trying to prevent Israel, an outpost of US power in the Middle East, from carrying out a genocide. That’s it. International and humanitarian law mean nothing to Washington. US efforts to paint Ansar Allah as illegitimate, criminal, or aggressors are transparent attempts to rhetorically discredit a regional resistance movement in order to make the massacre of Yemenis palatable to Western audiences.

    In the US empire’s eyes, the reason Yemenis need to be massacred is obvious: they are opponents of Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Trump is massacring Yemenis so that Israel can continue massacring Palestinians. It really is that simple.

    The post Trump Massacres Yemenis so Israel can Massacre Palestinians first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Owen Schalk.

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    Three men in Iran are facing the risk of authorities amputating their fingers as punishment. https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/17/three-men-in-iran-are-facing-the-risk-of-authorities-amputating-their-fingers-as-punishment/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/17/three-men-in-iran-are-facing-the-risk-of-authorities-amputating-their-fingers-as-punishment/#respond Thu, 17 Apr 2025 07:59:09 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1feb415f35adb74dd6475012c4db48b9
    This content originally appeared on Human Rights Watch and was authored by Human Rights Watch.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/17/three-men-in-iran-are-facing-the-risk-of-authorities-amputating-their-fingers-as-punishment/feed/ 0 526411
    Israel pushes Trump to bomb Iran in tight timeframe https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/15/israel-pushes-trump-to-bomb-iran-in-tight-timeframe/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/15/israel-pushes-trump-to-bomb-iran-in-tight-timeframe/#respond Tue, 15 Apr 2025 16:59:52 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=7f2d454f8761c9e9bc9ba525fd97d751
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/15/israel-pushes-trump-to-bomb-iran-in-tight-timeframe/feed/ 0 525872
    Should Iran Bend Knee to Donald Trump? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/13/should-iran-bend-knee-to-donald-trump/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/13/should-iran-bend-knee-to-donald-trump/#respond Sun, 13 Apr 2025 15:32:48 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=157344 Former UNSCOM weapons inspector Scott Ritter usually provides excellent analysis of geopolitical events and places them in a morally centered framework. However, in a recent X post, Ritter defends a controversial stance blaming Iran for US and Israeli machinations against Iran.

    The post Should Iran Bend Knee to Donald Trump? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Former UNSCOM weapons inspector Scott Ritter usually provides excellent analysis of geopolitical events and places them in a morally centered framework. However, in a recent X post, Ritter defends a controversial stance blaming Iran for US and Israeli machinations against Iran.

    Ritter opened, “I have assiduously detailed the nature of the threat perceived by the US that, if unresolved, would necessitate military action, as exclusively revolving around Iran’s nuclear program and, more specifically, that capacity that is excess to its declared peaceful program and, as such, conducive to a nuclear weapons program Iran has admitted is on the threshold of being actualized.”

    Threats perceived by the US. These threats range from North Korea, Viet Nam, Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iran, China, and Russia. Question: Which of the aforementioned countries is about to — or ever was about to — attack the US? None. (Al Qaeda is not a country) So why does Ritter imply that military action would be necessitated? Is it a vestige of military indoctrination left over from his time as a marine? In this case, why is Ritter not focused on his own backyard and telling the US to butt out of the Middle East? The US, since it is situated on a continent far removed from Iran, should no more dictate to Iran what its defense posture should be in the region than Iran should dictate what the US’s defense posture should be in the northwestern hemisphere.

    Ritter: “In short, I have argued, the most realistic path forward regarding conflict avoidance would be for Iran to negotiate in good faith regarding the verifiable disposition of its excess nuclear enrichment capability.”

    Ritter places the onus for conflict avoidance on Iran. Why? Is Iran seeking conflict with the US? Is Iran making demands of the US? Is Iran sanctioning the US? Moreover, who gets to decide what is realistic or not? Is what is realistic for the US also realistic for Iran? When determining the path forward, one should be aware of who and what is stirring up conflict. Ritter addresses this when he writes, “Even when Trump alienated Iran with his ‘maximum pressure’ tactics, including an insulting letter to the Supreme Leader that all but eliminated the possibility of direct negotiations between the US and Iran…” But this did not alter Ritter’s stance. Iran must negotiate — again. According to Ritter negotiations are how to solve the crisis, a crisis of the US’s (and Israel’s) making.

    Iran had agreed to a deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany — collectively known as the P5+1 — with the participation of the European Union. The JCPOA came into effect in 2016. During the course of the JCPOA, Iran was in compliance with the deal. Nonetheless, Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018.

    Backing out of agreements/deals is nothing new for Trump (or for that matter, the US). For example, Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement on climate, the Trans-Pacific Partnership on trade, the United Nations cultural organization UNESCO, and the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was subsequently renegotiated under Trump to morph into the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, which is now imperilled by the Trump administration’s tariff threats, as is the World Trade Organization that regulates international trade.

    Should Iran, therefore, expect adherence to any future agreement signed with the US?

    Ritter insists that he is promoting a reality-based process providing the only viable path toward peace. Many of those who disagree with Ritter’s assertion are lampooned by him as “the digital mob, comprised of new age philosophers, self-styled ‘peace activists’, and a troll class that opposes anything and everything it doesn’t understand (which is most factually-grounded argument), as well as people I had viewed as fellow travelers on a larger journey of conflict avoidance—podcasters, experts and pundits who did more than simply disagree with me (which is, of course, their right and duty as independent thinkers), traversing into the realm of insults and attacks against my intelligence, integrity and character.”

    Ritter continued, “The US-Iran crisis is grounded in the complexities, niceties and formalities of international law as set forth in the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT), which Iran signed in 1970 as a non-nuclear weapons state. The NPT will be at the center of any negotiated settlement.”

    Is it accurate to characterize the crisis as a “US-Iran crisis”? It elides the fact that it is the US imposing a crisis on Iran. More accurately it should be stated as a “US crisis foisted on Iran.”

    Ritter argues, “… the fact remains that this crisis has been triggered by the very capabilities Iran admits to having—stocks of 60% enriched uranium with no link to Iran’s declared peaceful program, and excessive advanced centrifuge-based enrichment capability which leaves Iran days away from possessing sufficient weapons grade high enriched uranium to produce 3-5 nuclear weapons.”

    So, Ritter blames Iran for the crisis. This plays off Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has long accused Iran of seeking nukes. But it ignores the situation in India and Pakistan. Although the relations between the two countries are tense, logic dictates that open warring must be avoided lest it lead to mutual nuclear conflagration. And if Iran dismantles its nuclear program? What happened when Libya dismantled its nuclear program? Destruction by the US-led NATO. As A.B. Abrams wrote, Libya paid the price for

    … having ignored direct warnings from both Tehran and Pyongyang not to pursue such a course [of unilaterally disarming], Libya’s leadership would later admit that disarmament, neglected military modernisation, and trust in Western good will proved to be their greatest mistake–leaving their country near defenceless when Western powers launched their offensive in 2011. (Immovable Object: North Korea’s 70 Years at War with American Power, Clarity Press, 2020: p 296)

    And North Korea has existed with a credible deterrence against any attack on it since it acquired nuclear weapons.

    Relevant background to the current crisis imposed on Iran

    1. The year 1953 is a suitable starting point. It was in this year that the US-UK (CIA and MI6) combined to engineer a coup against the democratically elected Iranian government under prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh. Mossadegh had committed the unpardonable sin of nationalizing the British-owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.
    1. What to replace the Iranian democracy with? A monarchy. In other words, a dictatorship because monarchs are not elected, they are usually born into power. Thus, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi would rule as the shah of Iran for 26 years protected by his secret police, the SAVAK. Eventually, the shah would be overthrown in the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
    1. In an attempt to force Iran to bend knee to US dictate, the US has imposed sanctions, issued threats, and fomented violence.
    1. Starting sometime after 2010, it is generally agreed among cybersecurity experts and intelligence leaks that the Iranian nuclear program was a target of cyberwarfare by the US and Israel — this in contravention of the United Nations Charter Article 2 (1-4):

    1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.

    2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.

    3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.

    4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

    1. The Stuxnet virus caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program, particularly at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility.
    1. Israel and the United States are also accused of being behind the assassinations of several Iranian nuclear scientists over the past decade.
    1. On 3 January 2020, Trump ordered a US drone strike at Baghdad International Airport in Iraq that assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani as well as Soleimani ally Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a top Iraqi militia leader.
    1. On 7 October 7 2023, Hamas launched a resistance attack against Israel’s occupation. Since then, Israel has reportedly conducted several covert and overt strikes targeting Iran and its proxies across the region.
    1. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Iran of seeking nukes for nearly 30 years, long before Iran reached 60% enrichment in 2021. In Netanyahu’s book Fighting Terrorism (1995) he described Iran as a “rogue state” pursuing nukes to destroy Israel. Given that a fanatical, expansionist Zionist map for Israel, the Oded-Yinon plan, draws a Jewish territory that touches on the Iranian frontier, a debilitated Iran is sought by Israel.

     

    Oded Yinon Plan

    Says Ritter, “This crisis isn’t about Israel or Israel’s own undeclared nuclear weapons capability. It is about Iran’s self-declared status as a threshold nuclear weapons state, something prohibited by the NPT. This is what the negotiations will focus on. And hopefully these negotiations will permit the verifiable dismantling of those aspects of its nuclear program the US (and Israel) find to present an existential threat.”

    Why isn’t it about Israel’s nuclear weapons capability? Why does the US and Ritter get to decide which crisis is preeminent?

    It is important to note that US intelligence has long said that no active Iranian nuclear weapon project exists.

    It is also important to note that Arab states have long supported a Middle East Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDFZ), particularly nuclear weapons, but Israel and the US oppose it.

    It is also important to note that, in 2021, the U.S. opposed a resolution demanding Israel join the NPT and that the US, in 2018, blocked an Arab-backed IAEA resolution on Israeli nukes. (UN Digital Library. Search: “Middle East WMDFZ”)

    As far as the NPT goes, it must be applied equally to all signatory states. The US as a nuclear-armed nation is bound by Article VI which demands:

    Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.

    Thus, hopefully negotiations will permit the verifiable dismantling of those aspects of the Iranian, US, and Israeli nuclear programs (as well as the nuclear programs of other nuclear-armed nations) that are found to present an existential threat.

    Ritter warns, “Peace is not guaranteed. But war is unless common sense and fact-based logic wins out over the self-important ignorance of the digital mob and their facilitators.”

    A peaceful solution is not achieved by assertions (i.e., not fact-based logic) or by ad hominem. That critics of Ritter’s stance resort to name-calling demeans them, but to respond likewise to one’s critics also taints the respondent.

    Logic dictates that peace is more-or-less guaranteed if UN member states adhere to the United Nations Charter. The US, Iran, and Israel are UN member states. A balanced and peaceful solution is found in the Purposes and Principles as stipulated in Article 1 (1-4) of the UN Charter:

    The Purposes of the United Nations are:

    1. To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;

    2. To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace;

    3. To achieve international co-operation in solving international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character, and in promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language, or religion; and

    4. To be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations in the attainment of these common ends.

    It seems that only by refusing to abide by one’s obligations laid out the UN Charter and NPT that war looms larger.

    In Ritter’s reality, the US rules the roost against smaller countries. Is such a reality acceptable?

    It stirs up patriotism, but acquiescence is an affront to national dignity. Ritter will likely respond by asking what god is dignity when you are dead. Fair enough. But in the present crisis, if the US were to attack Iran, then whatever last shred of dignity (is there any last shred of dignity left when a country is supporting the genocide of human beings in Palestine?) that American patriots can cling to will have vanished.

    By placing the blame on Iran for a crisis triggered by destabilizing actions of the US and Israel, Ritter asks for Iran to pay for the violent events set in motion by US Israel. If Iran were to cave to Trump’s threats, they would be sacrificing sovereignty, dignity, and self-defense.

    North Korea continues on. Libya is still reeling from the NATO offensive against it. Iran is faced with a choice.

    The Mexican revolutionary Emiliano Zapata knew his choice well: “I’d rather die on my feet, than live on my knees.”

    The post Should Iran Bend Knee to Donald Trump? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Kim Petersen.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/13/should-iran-bend-knee-to-donald-trump/feed/ 0 525463
    Danger in Trump’s Mind https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/danger-in-trumps-mind/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/danger-in-trumps-mind/#respond Thu, 10 Apr 2025 16:25:03 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=157324 On 7 April, a Mondoweiss headline ran as “Trump announces surprise Iran talks during Netanyahu meeting.” United States president Donald Trump had met with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss “Gaza, tariffs, and the alleged nuclear threat of Iran.” As for the latter, Trump said that the US is having direct talks with Iran […]

    The post Danger in Trump’s Mind first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    On 7 April, a Mondoweiss headline ran as “Trump announces surprise Iran talks during Netanyahu meeting.”

    United States president Donald Trump had met with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss “Gaza, tariffs, and the alleged nuclear threat of Iran.” As for the latter, Trump said that the US is having direct talks with Iran on nuclear weapons and announced that there would be a “very big meeting” with important officials on April 12.

    Said Trump: “I think everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious.”

    What is the obvious? If one abhors war and wants to avoid it, then it seems the obvious thing to do is to stop bullying Iran, stop provoking it, and stop issuing threats and engaging in belligerent rhetoric.

    Trump continued: “And the obvious is not something that … we’re going to see if we can avoid it. But it’s getting to be very dangerous territory.”

    Dangerous? How so? Just on Trump’s say-so? One would presume that Iran having nuclear arms is what Trump considers dangerous. If so, then what is the nuclear-armed Israel that Trump openly courts, funds, and fetes compared to Iran whose supreme leader Ali Khamenei issued a never-rescinded fatwa against acquiring nuclear weapons decades ago? How dangerous is Iran, which has avoided war for several decades, in comparison to Israel which is perennially provoking and at war with its neighbors, and is in the midst of a scaled-up genocide? Professor Gideon Polya writes of the “the US-backed, Zionist Israeli mass murder of about 0.6 million Indigenous Palestinian[s]” — a number elided by legacy media. Why has Trump not described Israel as “dangerous”? And why isn’t the US dangerous since it has been constantly at war since its inception, and it is the only country that has used nukes against another nation?

    Trump: “If the talks aren’t successful with Iran …”

    But US nuclear talks with Iran already were successful. The Obama administration already achieved what constitutes a successful nuclear deal with Iran — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — since the deal was agreed to by both sides. It was the Trump administration which scuttled the deal, i.e., reversed a success. So the current situation exists because Trump undermined a previous deal, and the very fact that a deal was reached should be considered a success.

    “… I think Iran is going to be in great danger,” Trump continued. “And I hate to say it, great danger, because they can’t have a nuclear weapon. You know, it’s not a complicated formula. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. That’s all there is.”

    That is hardly a compelling argument. Because Trump says so. He may point to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), but the US is also non-compliant with article 6 of the NPT.

    Which nation is dangerous?

    It is Israel and the US that are committing genocide in Gaza; Iran is not committing a genocide. Moreover, if you try to stop the genocide, then Trump will bomb you, civilian housing or not, as is the case in Yemen.

    It is Israel murdering paramedics, covering up its crime, and lying about it.

    It is Trump and Netanyahu’s aggressive moves toward Iran that are dangerous.

    Indeed, an Israeli official said that Netanyahu wants “the Libya model” in Iran, which would require a complete tearing down of Iran’s nuclear program.

    What was the outcome of the Libya model? Libya was disarmed, and the US and its Nato followers destroyed Africa’s wealthiest country, turning it into a dysfunctional state. That is likeliest the result that Israel wants for Iran.

    Is the world to be based on inequality among its nations? If not, then a progressivist principle holds that each nation has an inalienable right to self-defense. One way to avert war is to balance the power. North Korea knows what happened to Libya. It is now nuclear armed and this serves as a deterrent to aggressive nations who might otherwise attack it. Iran knows this as well. Ask yourself: if Iran was nuclear armed would Israel and the US be foolish enough to attack Iran?

    The post Danger in Trump’s Mind first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Kim Petersen.

    ]]>
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    Trump Threatens Joint U.S.-Israeli Attack on Iran If Talks on Iran’s Nuclear Program Fail https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/trump-threatens-joint-u-s-israeli-attack-on-iran-if-talks-on-irans-nuclear-program-fail-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/trump-threatens-joint-u-s-israeli-attack-on-iran-if-talks-on-irans-nuclear-program-fail-2/#respond Thu, 10 Apr 2025 15:50:50 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=881154eb2d1fec0cc61db9e0c11727f6
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/trump-threatens-joint-u-s-israeli-attack-on-iran-if-talks-on-irans-nuclear-program-fail-2/feed/ 0 524919
    Trump Threatens Joint U.S.-Israeli Attack on Iran If Talks on Iran’s Nuclear Program Fail https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/trump-threatens-joint-u-s-israeli-attack-on-iran-if-talks-on-irans-nuclear-program-fail/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/trump-threatens-joint-u-s-israeli-attack-on-iran-if-talks-on-irans-nuclear-program-fail/#respond Thu, 10 Apr 2025 12:40:08 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=cc84d972cf0b4614289f6cfb551842d2 Seg2 negar trump

    As the U.S. and Iran prepare for talks this weekend in Oman to discuss Iran’s nuclear weapons program, we speak to journalist ​​Negar Mortazavi about the Trump administration’s negotiation strategy of “threats and pressure” and his diplomatic doctrine of “peace through strength.” Mortazavi is skeptical that the talks will result in Iran giving up its nuclear weapons program, as Trump’s team is demanding, and comments on the impacts of severe sanctions on Iran, which have devastated the country’s fragile economy.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/10/trump-threatens-joint-u-s-israeli-attack-on-iran-if-talks-on-irans-nuclear-program-fail/feed/ 0 524897
    How will Iran respond to Trump’s threats? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/01/how-will-iran-respond-to-trumps-threats/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/01/how-will-iran-respond-to-trumps-threats/#respond Tue, 01 Apr 2025 02:38:19 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=75723ba6536d92332afa44a2b6d1cfca
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/04/01/how-will-iran-respond-to-trumps-threats/feed/ 0 522838
    NYT Advises Trump to Kill More Venezuelans  https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/12/nyt-advises-trump-to-kill-more-venezuelans/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/12/nyt-advises-trump-to-kill-more-venezuelans/#respond Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:51:25 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9044190  

    Donald Trump is back in the White House, and faux opposition is once again the order of the day for the Western media and the Democratic Party. Whether it comes to criminalizing migrants (FAIR.org, 1/25/25), maintaining US “soft power” via USAID, downplaying anti-democratic power grabs (FAIR.org, 2/4/25) or whitewashing Nazi salutes (FAIR.org, 1/23/25), the centrist establishment seems quite content to normalize Trump or even outflank him from the right.

    There is, of course, no area of greater consensus than US imperial grand strategy, from waging genocidal war in Palestine (FAIR.org, 1/30/25) to recolonizing Washington’s “backyard” south of the Rio Grande. Accumulation by laying waste to the societies of the global South via carpet bombing and/or economic siege warfare is, according to anti-imperialist political economist Ali Kadri, the name of the game.

    Venezuela is no exception to this multi-pronged onslaught. And the US empire’s “paper of record,” the New York Times, proudly leads the charge, most recently advocating the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro “through coercive diplomacy if possible or force if necessary.”

    High on his own (imperial) supply

    New York Times: Depose Maduro

    Bret Stephens (New York Times, 1/14/25): “Ending Maduro’s long reign of terror is a good way to start [the Trump] administration—and send a signal to tyrants elsewhere that American patience with disorder and danger eventually runs out.”

    In a column belligerently titled “Depose Maduro,” New York Times columnist Bret Stephens (1/14/25) made an overt case for US military intervention to topple Venezuela’s government. He hailed this textbook crime of aggression as “overdue, morally right and in our national security interest.”

    For the Times’ self-described “warmongering neocon,” that last point is characteristically paramount. Specifically, he asserted that US “national security” requires “putting an end to a criminal regime that is a source of drugs, mass migration and Iranian influence in the Americas.”

    The irony that during the 1980s, the Central Intelligence Agency actually facilitated the trafficking of cocaine to working-class Black communities in the context of the Iran/Contra scandal (FAIR.org, 12/29/24) was evidently lost on the Times columnist.

    Then as today, the principal drug routes to the United States cut across the Pacific rather than the Gulf of Mexico (FAIR.org, 9/24/19). A 2017 DEA report found that less than 10% of US-bound cocaine flowed through Venezuela’s eastern Caribbean corridor, with WOLA reaching a similar conclusion in a 2020 study.

    Not only does the bulk of drug trafficking flow through US-allied countries, but the US government itself is broadly complicit in the perpetuation of the multi-billion dollar contraband, as evidenced in its support for narco puppet regimes in Afghanistan (New York Times, 7/27/08) and Honduras (FAIR.org, 3/20/24; Covert Action, 3/14/24).

    In marked contrast, the US has levied “narco-terrorism” charges against top Caracas officials, going as far as to place a bounty on Maduro’s head, without providing a shred of evidence, since Western outlets are happy to take US officials’ word, no questions asked (BBC, 1/10/25; New York Times, 1/10/25; Washington Post, 1/10/25; AP, 1/10/25).

    Stephens lamented that Washington’s murderous economic sanctions “didn’t work” and that its bounty “also won’t work.” The columnist conveniently ignored that the unilateral coercive measures, described aptly by US officials as “maximum pressure,” were quite effective in deliberately gutting Venezuela’s economy, in the process killing at least tens of thousands, and spurring the migrant exodus he pointed to as justification for his proposed military adventure.

    Such omission regarding US responsibility for Venezuelan migration is by now a staple of corporate media coverage (New York Times, 1/31/25; PBS, 1/31/25; CBS, 2/2/25). Indeed, support for Washington’s economic terrorism against Venezuela has been fairly uniform across the US political spectrum for years (FAIR.org, 6/4/20, 6/4/21, 5/2/22, 6/13/22).

    Common tactics include describing sanctions as merely affecting Maduro and allies (New York Times, 1/6/25; NPR, 1/10/25; Al Jazeera, 1/6/25; Financial Times, 1/31/25) or portraying their consequences as merely the demonized leader’s opinion (New York Times, 1/31/25; BBC, 1/10/25; Reuters, 1/27/25).

    The Iranian bogeyman

    Infobae: Irán refuerza su presencia militar en Venezuela con drones y cooperación estratégica

    Stephens cites a story (Infobae, 1/10/25) about an Iranian “drone development base” in Venezuela that offers as its only source for the claim that “there is information” about such a base.

    It is no surprise, either, that in Stephens’ casus belli, Iran appears alongside the familiar conservative tropes of Latin American migrant hordes and narcotics threatening the US (white settler) body politic.

    Stephens’ Orientalist fixation with the Iranian bogeyman is notable, if hardly novel. Western media have in recent years circulated baseless rumors of Iran covertly shipping military equipment to Venezuela (FAIR.org, 6/10/20), and the Times in particular has promoted equally evidence-free claims of drug trafficking by Iranian ally Hezbollah (FAIR.org, 5/24/19, 2/4/21).

    In the latest whopper, Stephens cited Iran having “reportedly established a ‘drone development base’” at a Venezuelan air base. However, this story comes from rabidly anti-Venezuelan government outlet Infobae (1/10/25), which did not even bother describing its anonymous source. The report only vaguely stated that “there is information” about this purported base.

    Regardless of whether there is any truth to the alleged defense cooperation between the two sovereign nations, the perceived threat is, following the late Edward Said, symptomatic of Western imperialism’s enduring obsession with the “loss of Iran” in the wake of the 1979 overthrow of the Shah. Like the Chinese Revolution before it, Iran’s Islamic Revolution is still decades later portrayed as a global civilizational menace.

    But the effort to update the “axis of evil” with a revised cast of rogue states from Venezuela to Iran also crucially serves to manufacture consent for military aggression against Tehran, which has long been the ultimate dream of significant segments of the US political class and intelligentsia, including Stephens (FAIR.org, 10/25/24).

    On elections and ‘tropical despotisms’ 

    In Stephens’ tropical gunboat diplomacy redux, there was something for everyone, even bleeding-heart “liberals” horrified that Venezuelan President Maduro supposedly “stole the election, terrorizes his opponents and brutalizes his people.”

    As always, US imperialist intervention ideologically hinges on denying the Bolivarian government’s democratic credentials, most recently regarding the outcome of the July 28, 2024, presidential vote (Venezuelanalysis, 8/22/24, 7/29/24). However, Washington’s blockade ensured that the elections would never be free and fair. As the main factor driving economic hardship and migration, US sanctions meant Venezuelans headed to the polls with a gun to their heads, not unlike Nicaraguans in 1990.

    It is the height of hypocrisy for US officials and their corporate media stenographers to claim the right to arbitrate other sovereign nations’ democratic legitimacy, even as they advance fascism at home and genocidal war across the globe. That sectors of the Western “compatible left” echo Stephens and his ilk, caricaturing the Maduro government as a “corrupt” and “repressive” regime, is unfortunate but not surprising (Ebb, 10/3/24).

    The core racial assumption, going back to the 19th century, is that Global South states that refuse to bow to Western imperialist diktat constitute “tropical despotisms” to be toppled in a never-ending “civilizing mission,” with its anti-Communist, “war on terror” and neo-Orientalist mutations.

    Demolishing the Death Star

    Extra!: How Television Sold the Panama Invasion

    Extra! (1–2/90): “In covering the invasion of Panama, many TV journalists abandoned even the pretense of operating in a neutral, independent mode.”

    It is noteworthy that the script for Stephens’ Rambo sequel is over 35 years old: Stephens argued for “US military intervention of the sort that in 1990 swiftly ended the regime of the Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega.” Formerly US-backed narco dictator Noriega was, not incidentally, an ex-CIA agent involved in Iran/Contra (Extra!, 1–2/90; FAIR.org, 12/29/24).

    The New York Times warmonger-in-chief’s rendering of the intervention is fantastically selective, forgetting that the Central American nation was already “pre-invaded” by US military bases, and that the savage bombing of the Afro-Panamanian neighborhood of El Chorrillo transformed it into “Little Hiroshima.”

    But the sober reality is that Venezuela is not Panama. Venezuela’s Bolivarian Armed Forces, alongside other corps, like the Bolivarian Militia, have spent a quarter of a century preparing for a “prolonged people’s war of resistance” against the US empire at the level of doctrine, organization, equipment and training.

    If the US and its Zionist colonial outpost failed to defeat the heroic Palestinian resistance in Gaza after nearly 500 days of genocidal war, an asymmetric conflict with a significantly larger and stronger force, across a territory more than 2,000 times as large, is not likely a serious proposition.

    Nonetheless, it is the duty of all those residing in the imperialist core to grind Washington’s industrial-scale death machine to a definitive halt. This paramount strategic objective demands systematically deposing the New York Times’ Goebbelsian propaganda.


    This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/12/nyt-advises-trump-to-kill-more-venezuelans/feed/ 0 513518
    NYT Advises Trump to Kill More Venezuelans  https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/12/nyt-advises-trump-to-kill-more-venezuelans-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/12/nyt-advises-trump-to-kill-more-venezuelans-2/#respond Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:51:25 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9044190  

    Donald Trump is back in the White House, and faux opposition is once again the order of the day for the Western media and the Democratic Party. Whether it comes to criminalizing migrants (FAIR.org, 1/25/25), maintaining US “soft power” via USAID, downplaying anti-democratic power grabs (FAIR.org, 2/4/25) or whitewashing Nazi salutes (FAIR.org, 1/23/25), the centrist establishment seems quite content to normalize Trump or even outflank him from the right.

    There is, of course, no area of greater consensus than US imperial grand strategy, from waging genocidal war in Palestine (FAIR.org, 1/30/25) to recolonizing Washington’s “backyard” south of the Rio Grande. Accumulation by laying waste to the societies of the global South via carpet bombing and/or economic siege warfare is, according to anti-imperialist political economist Ali Kadri, the name of the game.

    Venezuela is no exception to this multi-pronged onslaught. And the US empire’s “paper of record,” the New York Times, proudly leads the charge, most recently advocating the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro “through coercive diplomacy if possible or force if necessary.”

    High on his own (imperial) supply

    New York Times: Depose Maduro

    Bret Stephens (New York Times, 1/14/25): “Ending Maduro’s long reign of terror is a good way to start [the Trump] administration—and send a signal to tyrants elsewhere that American patience with disorder and danger eventually runs out.”

    In a column belligerently titled “Depose Maduro,” New York Times columnist Bret Stephens (1/14/25) made an overt case for US military intervention to topple Venezuela’s government. He hailed this textbook crime of aggression as “overdue, morally right and in our national security interest.”

    For the Times’ self-described “warmongering neocon,” that last point is characteristically paramount. Specifically, he asserted that US “national security” requires “putting an end to a criminal regime that is a source of drugs, mass migration and Iranian influence in the Americas.”

    The irony that during the 1980s, the Central Intelligence Agency actually facilitated the trafficking of cocaine to working-class Black communities in the context of the Iran/Contra scandal (FAIR.org, 12/29/24) was evidently lost on the Times columnist.

    Then as today, the principal drug routes to the United States cut across the Pacific rather than the Gulf of Mexico (FAIR.org, 9/24/19). A 2017 DEA report found that less than 10% of US-bound cocaine flowed through Venezuela’s eastern Caribbean corridor, with WOLA reaching a similar conclusion in a 2020 study.

    Not only does the bulk of drug trafficking flow through US-allied countries, but the US government itself is broadly complicit in the perpetuation of the multi-billion dollar contraband, as evidenced in its support for narco puppet regimes in Afghanistan (New York Times, 7/27/08) and Honduras (FAIR.org, 3/20/24; Covert Action, 3/14/24).

    In marked contrast, the US has levied “narco-terrorism” charges against top Caracas officials, going as far as to place a bounty on Maduro’s head, without providing a shred of evidence, since Western outlets are happy to take US officials’ word, no questions asked (BBC, 1/10/25; New York Times, 1/10/25; Washington Post, 1/10/25; AP, 1/10/25).

    Stephens lamented that Washington’s murderous economic sanctions “didn’t work” and that its bounty “also won’t work.” The columnist conveniently ignored that the unilateral coercive measures, described aptly by US officials as “maximum pressure,” were quite effective in deliberately gutting Venezuela’s economy, in the process killing at least tens of thousands, and spurring the migrant exodus he pointed to as justification for his proposed military adventure.

    Such omission regarding US responsibility for Venezuelan migration is by now a staple of corporate media coverage (New York Times, 1/31/25; PBS, 1/31/25; CBS, 2/2/25). Indeed, support for Washington’s economic terrorism against Venezuela has been fairly uniform across the US political spectrum for years (FAIR.org, 6/4/20, 6/4/21, 5/2/22, 6/13/22).

    Common tactics include describing sanctions as merely affecting Maduro and allies (New York Times, 1/6/25; NPR, 1/10/25; Al Jazeera, 1/6/25; Financial Times, 1/31/25) or portraying their consequences as merely the demonized leader’s opinion (New York Times, 1/31/25; BBC, 1/10/25; Reuters, 1/27/25).

    The Iranian bogeyman

    Infobae: Irán refuerza su presencia militar en Venezuela con drones y cooperación estratégica

    Stephens cites a story (Infobae, 1/10/25) about an Iranian “drone development base” in Venezuela that offers as its only source for the claim that “there is information” about such a base.

    It is no surprise, either, that in Stephens’ casus belli, Iran appears alongside the familiar conservative tropes of Latin American migrant hordes and narcotics threatening the US (white settler) body politic.

    Stephens’ Orientalist fixation with the Iranian bogeyman is notable, if hardly novel. Western media have in recent years circulated baseless rumors of Iran covertly shipping military equipment to Venezuela (FAIR.org, 6/10/20), and the Times in particular has promoted equally evidence-free claims of drug trafficking by Iranian ally Hezbollah (FAIR.org, 5/24/19, 2/4/21).

    In the latest whopper, Stephens cited Iran having “reportedly established a ‘drone development base’” at a Venezuelan air base. However, this story comes from rabidly anti-Venezuelan government outlet Infobae (1/10/25), which did not even bother describing its anonymous source. The report only vaguely stated that “there is information” about this purported base.

    Regardless of whether there is any truth to the alleged defense cooperation between the two sovereign nations, the perceived threat is, following the late Edward Said, symptomatic of Western imperialism’s enduring obsession with the “loss of Iran” in the wake of the 1979 overthrow of the Shah. Like the Chinese Revolution before it, Iran’s Islamic Revolution is still decades later portrayed as a global civilizational menace.

    But the effort to update the “axis of evil” with a revised cast of rogue states from Venezuela to Iran also crucially serves to manufacture consent for military aggression against Tehran, which has long been the ultimate dream of significant segments of the US political class and intelligentsia, including Stephens (FAIR.org, 10/25/24).

    On elections and ‘tropical despotisms’ 

    In Stephens’ tropical gunboat diplomacy redux, there was something for everyone, even bleeding-heart “liberals” horrified that Venezuelan President Maduro supposedly “stole the election, terrorizes his opponents and brutalizes his people.”

    As always, US imperialist intervention ideologically hinges on denying the Bolivarian government’s democratic credentials, most recently regarding the outcome of the July 28, 2024, presidential vote (Venezuelanalysis, 8/22/24, 7/29/24). However, Washington’s blockade ensured that the elections would never be free and fair. As the main factor driving economic hardship and migration, US sanctions meant Venezuelans headed to the polls with a gun to their heads, not unlike Nicaraguans in 1990.

    It is the height of hypocrisy for US officials and their corporate media stenographers to claim the right to arbitrate other sovereign nations’ democratic legitimacy, even as they advance fascism at home and genocidal war across the globe. That sectors of the Western “compatible left” echo Stephens and his ilk, caricaturing the Maduro government as a “corrupt” and “repressive” regime, is unfortunate but not surprising (Ebb, 10/3/24).

    The core racial assumption, going back to the 19th century, is that Global South states that refuse to bow to Western imperialist diktat constitute “tropical despotisms” to be toppled in a never-ending “civilizing mission,” with its anti-Communist, “war on terror” and neo-Orientalist mutations.

    Demolishing the Death Star

    Extra!: How Television Sold the Panama Invasion

    Extra! (1–2/90): “In covering the invasion of Panama, many TV journalists abandoned even the pretense of operating in a neutral, independent mode.”

    It is noteworthy that the script for Stephens’ Rambo sequel is over 35 years old: Stephens argued for “US military intervention of the sort that in 1990 swiftly ended the regime of the Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega.” Formerly US-backed narco dictator Noriega was, not incidentally, an ex-CIA agent involved in Iran/Contra (Extra!, 1–2/90; FAIR.org, 12/29/24).

    The New York Times warmonger-in-chief’s rendering of the intervention is fantastically selective, forgetting that the Central American nation was already “pre-invaded” by US military bases, and that the savage bombing of the Afro-Panamanian neighborhood of El Chorrillo transformed it into “Little Hiroshima.”

    But the sober reality is that Venezuela is not Panama. Venezuela’s Bolivarian Armed Forces, alongside other corps, like the Bolivarian Militia, have spent a quarter of a century preparing for a “prolonged people’s war of resistance” against the US empire at the level of doctrine, organization, equipment and training.

    If the US and its Zionist colonial outpost failed to defeat the heroic Palestinian resistance in Gaza after nearly 500 days of genocidal war, an asymmetric conflict with a significantly larger and stronger force, across a territory more than 2,000 times as large, is not likely a serious proposition.

    Nonetheless, it is the duty of all those residing in the imperialist core to grind Washington’s industrial-scale death machine to a definitive halt. This paramount strategic objective demands systematically deposing the New York Times’ Goebbelsian propaganda.


    This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Lucas Koerner.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/12/nyt-advises-trump-to-kill-more-venezuelans-2/feed/ 0 513519
    Trump’s foreign aid freeze throws independent journalism into chaos https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/08/trumps-foreign-aid-freeze-throws-independent-journalism-into-chaos/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/02/08/trumps-foreign-aid-freeze-throws-independent-journalism-into-chaos/#respond Sat, 08 Feb 2025 08:05:43 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=110543 Pacific Media Watch

    President Donald Trump has frozen billions of dollars around the world in aid projects, including more than $268 million allocated by Congress to support independent media and the free flow of information.

    Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has denounced this decision, which has plunged NGOs, media outlets, and journalists doing vital work into chaotic uncertainty — including in the Pacific.

    In a statement published on its website, RSF has called for international public and private support to commit to the “sustainability of independent media”.

    • READ MORE: What will US aid cuts mean for the Pacific?
    • Donald Trump’s foreign aid freeze leaves organisations in the Asia-Pacific region scrambling
    • Other Pacific media freedom reports

    Since the new American president announced the freeze of US foreign aid on January 20, USAID (United States Agency for International Development) has been in turmoil — its website is inaccessible, its X account has been suspended, the agency’s headquarters was closed and employees told to stay home.

    South African-born American billionaire Elon Musk, an unelected official, whom Trump chose to lead the quasi-official Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has called USAID a “criminal organisation” and declared: “We’re shutting [it] down.”

    Later that day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he was named acting director of the agency, suggesting its operations were being moved to the State Department.

    Almost immediately after the freeze went into effect, journalistic organisations around the world — including media groups in the Pacific — that receive American aid funding started reaching out to RSF expressing confusion, chaos, and uncertainty.

    Large and smaller media NGOs affected
    The affected organisations include large international NGOs that support independent media like the International Fund for Public Interest Media and smaller, individual media outlets serving audiences living under repressive conditions in countries like Iran and Russia.

    “The American aid funding freeze is sowing chaos around the world, including in journalism. The programmes that have been frozen provide vital support to projects that strengthen media, transparency, and democracy,” said Clayton Weimers, executive director of RSF USA.

    President Donald Trump
    President Donald Trump . . . “The American aid funding freeze is sowing chaos around the world, including in journalism,” says RSF. Image: RSF

    “President Trump justified this order by charging — without evidence — that a so-called ‘foreign aid industry’ is not aligned with US interests.

    “The tragic irony is that this measure will create a vacuum that plays into the hands of propagandists and authoritarian states. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) is appealing to the international public and private funders to commit to the sustainability of independent media.”

    USAID programmes support independent media in more than 30 countries, but it is difficult to assess the full extent of the harm done to the global media.

    Many organisations are hesitant to draw attention for fear of risking long-term funding or coming under political attacks.

    According to a USAID fact sheet which has since been taken offline, in 2023 the agency funded training and support for 6200 journalists, assisted 707 non-state news outlets, and supported 279 media-sector civil society organisations dedicated to strengthening independent media.

    The USAID website today
    The USAID website today . . . All USAID “direct hire” staff were reportedly put “on leave” on 7 February 2025. Image: USAID website screenshot APR

    Activities halted overnight
    The 2025 foreign aid budget included $268,376,000 allocated by Congress to support “independent media and the free flow of information”.

    All over the world, media outlets and organisations have had to halt some of their activities overnight.

    “We have articles scheduled until the end of January, but after that, if we haven’t found solutions, we won’t be able to publish anymore,” explains a journalist from a Belarusian exiled media outlet who wished to remain anonymous.

    In Cameroon, the funding freeze forced DataCameroon, a public interest media outlet based in the economic capital Douala, to put several projects on hold, including one focused on journalist safety and another covering the upcoming presidential election.

    An exiled Iranian media outlet that preferred to remain anonymous was forced to suspend collaboration with its staff for three months and slash salaries to a bare minimum to survive.

    An exiled Iranian journalist interviewed by RSF warns that the impact of the funding freeze could silence some of the last remaining free voices, creating a vacuum that Iranian state propaganda would inevitably fill.

    “Shutting us off will mean that they’ll have more power,” she says.

    USAID: the main donor for Ukrainian media
    In Ukraine, where 9 out of 10 outlets rely on subsidies and USAID is the primary donor, several local media have already announced the suspension of their activities and are searching for alternative solutions.

    “At Slidstvo.Info, 80 percent of our budget is affected,” said Anna Babinets, CEO and co-founder of this independent investigative media outlet based in Kyiv.

    The risk of this suspension is that it could open the door to other sources of funding that may seek to alter the editorial line and independence of these media.

    “Some media might be shut down or bought by businessmen or oligarchs. I think Russian money will enter the market. And government propaganda will, of course, intensify,” Babinets said.

    RSF has already witnessed the direct effects of such propaganda — a fabricated video, falsely branded with the organisation’s logo, claimed that RSF welcomed the suspension of USAID funding for Ukrainian media — a stance RSF has never endorsed.

    This is not the first instance of such disinformation.

    Finding alternatives quickly
    This situation highlights the financial fragility of the sector.

    According to Oleh Dereniuha, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian local media outlet NikVesti, based in Mykolaiv, a city in southeast Ukraine, “The suspension of US funding is just the tip of the iceberg — a key case that illustrates the severity of the situation.”

    Since 2024, independent Ukrainian media outlets have found securing financial sustainability nearly impossible due to the decline in donors.

    As a result, even minor budget cuts could put these media outlets in a precarious position.

    A recent RSF report stressed the need to focus on the economic recovery of the independent Ukrainian media landscape, weakened by the large-scale Russian invasion of February 24, 2022, which RSF’s study estimated to be at least $96 million over three years.

    Moreover, beyond the decline in donor support in Ukraine, media outlets are also facing growing threats to their funding and economic models in other countries.

    Georgia’s Transparency of Foreign Influence Law — modelled after Russia’s legislation — has put numerous media organisations at risk. The Georgian Prime Minister welcomed the US president’s decision with approval.

    This suspension is officially expected to last only 90 days, according to the US government.

    However, some, like Katerina Abramova, communications director for leading exiled Russian media outlet Meduza, fear that the reviews of funding contracts could take much longer.

    Abramova is anticipating the risk that these funds may be permanently cut off.

    “Exiled media are even in a more fragile position than others, as we can’t monetise our audience and the crowdfunding has its limits — especially when donating to Meduza is a crime in Russia,” Abramova stressed.

    By abruptly suspending American aid, the United States has made many media outlets and journalists vulnerable, dealing a significant blow to press freedom.

    For all the media outlets interviewed by RSF, the priority is to recover and urgently find alternative funding.

    How Fijivillage News reported the USAID crackdown
    How Fijivillage News reported the USAID crackdown by the Trump administration. Image: Fijivillage News screenshot APR

    Fiji, Pacific media, aid groups reel shocked by cuts
    In Suva, Fiji, as Pacific media groups have been reeling from the shock of the aid cuts, Fijivillage News reports that hundreds of local jobs and assistance to marginalised communities are being impacted because Fiji is an AUSAID hub.

    According to an USAID staff member speaking on the condition of anonymity, Trump’s decision has affected hundreds of Fijian jobs due to USAID believing in building local capacity.

    The staff member said millions of dollars in grants for strengthening climate resilience, the healthcare system, economic growth, and digital connectivity in rural communities were now on hold.

    The staff member also said civil society organisations, especially grantees in rural areas that rely on their aid, were at risk.

    Pacific Media Watch and Asia Pacific Report collaborate with Reporters Without Borders.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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    As Donald Trump plays God in Gaza, Israel acts like spoiled brat https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/31/as-donald-trump-plays-god-in-gaza-israel-acts-like-spoiled-brat/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/31/as-donald-trump-plays-god-in-gaza-israel-acts-like-spoiled-brat/#respond Fri, 31 Jan 2025 06:00:58 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=110364 The Gaza ceasefire deal proves that Israeli politics can only survive if it’s engaged in perpetual war.

    COMMENTARY: By Abdelhalim Abdelrahman

    US President Donald Trump has unsettled Arab leaders with his obscene suggestion that Egypt and Jordan absorb Palestinians from Gaza.

    Both Egypt and Jordan have stated that this is a non-starter and will not happen.

    Israeli extremists have welcomed Trump’s comments with the hope that the forced expulsion of Palestinians would pave the way for Jewish settlements in Gaza.

    • READ MORE: Israel to release 90 Palestinian prisoners, 3 captives to be freed in Gaza
    • Other Gaza reports

    But the truth is that Israeli leaders likely feel deceived by Trump more than anything else. Benjamin Netanyahu and most of Israeli society were once clamouring for Donald Trump.

    All that has changed since President Trump sent his top Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to Israel in which Witkoff reportedly lambasted Benjamin Netanyahu and forced him to accept a ceasefire agreement.

    Since then, Israeli leaders and Israeli society, are seemingly taken aback by Trump’s more restrained approach toward the Middle East and desire for a ceasefire.

    While the current ceasefire in place is a precarious endeavour at best, Israeli reactions to the cessation of hostilities highlight a profound point: not only did Netanyahu misread Trump’s intentions, but the entire Israeli political system itself seemingly only thrives during conflict in which the US provides it with unfettered military and diplomatic support.

    Geostrategic calculus
    Firstly, Israel believed that Trump’s second term would likely be a continuation of his first — where the US based its geostrategic calculus in the Middle East around Israel’s interests. This gave Israeli leaders the impression that Trump would give them the green light to attack Iran, resettle and starve Gaza, and formally annex the West Bank.

    However, Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist ilk failed to take into consideration that Trump likely views blanket Israeli interests as liabilities to both the United States and Trump’s vision for the Middle East.

    Trump blessing an Israel-Iran showdown seems to be off the table. Trump himself stated this and is backing up his words by appointing Washington-based analyst Mike DiMino as a top Department of Defence advisor.

    DiMino, a former fellow at the non-interventionist think tank Defense Priorities, is against war with Iran and has been highly critical of US involvement in the Middle East. Steve Witkoff will also be leading negotiations with Iran.

    The appointment of DiMino and Witkoff has enraged the Washington neoconservative establishment and is a signal to Tel Aviv that Trump will not capitulate to Israel’s hawkish ambitions.

    The Trump effect
    As it pertains to his vision for the Middle East, Trump has been adamant about expanding the Abraham Accords, deepening US military ties with Saudi Arabia, and possibly pioneering Saudi-Israeli “normalisation”.

    The Saudi government has condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, calling it a genocide and also made it clear that they will not normalise relations with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state.

    While there is an explicit pro-Israel angle to all these components, none of Trump’s objectives for the Middle East would be feasible if the genocide in Gaza continued or if the US allowed Israel to formally annex the occupied West Bank, something Trump stopped during his first term.

    It is unlikely that a Palestinian state will arise under Trump’s administration; however, Trump has been in contact with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas.

    Trump’s Middle East Adviser Massad Boulos has also facilitated talks between Abbas and Trump. Steve Witkoff has also met with PA official Hussein al-Sheikh in Saudi Arabia to discuss where the PA fits into a post-October 7 Gaza and a possible pathway to a Palestinian state.

    Witkoff’s willingness to meet with PA, along with the quiet yet growing relationship between Trump and Abbas, was likely something Netanyahu did not anticipate and may have also factored into Netanyahu’s acquiescence in Gaza.

    Of equal importance, the Gaza ceasefire deal proves that Israeli politics can only survive if it’s engaged in perpetual war.

    Brutal occupation
    This is evidenced by its brutal occupation of the Palestinians, destroying Gaza, and attacking its neighbours in Syria and Lebanon. Now that Israel is forced to stop its genocide in Gaza, at least for the time being, fissures within the Israeli government are already growing.

    Jewish extremist Itamar Ben Gvir resigned from Netanyahu’s coalition due to the ceasefire after serving as Israel’s national security minister. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also threatened to leave if a ceasefire was enacted.

    Such dynamics within the Israeli government and its necessity for conflict are only possible because the US allows it to happen.

    In providing Israel with unfettered military and diplomatic support, the US allows Israel to torment the Palestinian people. Now that Israel cannot punish Gaza, it has shifted their focus to the West Bank.

    Since the ceasefire’s implementation, the Israeli army has engaged in deadly raids in the Jenin refugee camp which had displaced over 2000 Palestinians. The Israeli army has also imposed a complete siege on the West Bank, shutting down checkpoints to severely restrict the movement of Palestinians.

    All of Israel’s genocidal practices are a direct result of the impunity granted to them by the Biden administration; who willingly refused to impose any consequences for Israel’s blatant violation of US law.

    Joe Biden could have enforced either the Leahy Law or Section 620 I of the Foreign Assistance Act at any time, which would ban weapons from flowing to Israel due to their impediment of humanitarian aid into Gaza and use of US weapons to facilitate grave human rights abuses in Gaza.

    Instead, he chose to undermine US laws to ensure that Israel had everything it facilitate their mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

    The United States has always held all the cards when it comes to Israel’s hawkish political composition. Israel was simply the executioner of the US’s devastating policies towards Gaza and the broader Palestinian national movement.

    Abdelhalim Abdelrahman is a freelance Palestinian journalist. His work has appeared in The New Arab, The Hill, MSN, and La Razon. Tis article was first published by The New Arab and is republished under Creative Commons.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Did Iran Lose Its Power? https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/24/did-iran-lose-its-power/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/24/did-iran-lose-its-power/#respond Fri, 24 Jan 2025 16:29:57 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=97305a8a804febc317a955b6292cf5fc
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Why the draft ‘foreign interference’ bill is so dangerous for Aotearoa https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/15/why-the-draft-foreign-interference-bill-is-so-dangerous-for-aotearoa/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/15/why-the-draft-foreign-interference-bill-is-so-dangerous-for-aotearoa/#respond Wed, 15 Jan 2025 00:01:36 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=109374 COMMENTARY: By Maire Leadbeater

    Aotearoa New Zealand’s coalition government has introduced a bill to criminalise “improper conduct for or on behalf of a foreign power” or foreign interference that echoes earlier Cold War times, and could capture critics of New Zealand’s foreign and defence policy, especially if they liaise with a “foreign country”.

    It is a threat to our democracy and here is why.

    Two new offences are:

    Offence 78AAA — a person thus charged must include all three of the following key elements — they:

    • know, or ought to know, they are acting for a foreign state, and
    • act in a covert, deceptive, coercive, or corruptive manner, and
    • intend to, or are aware that they are likely to, harm New Zealand interests specified in the offence through their actions OR are reckless as to whether their conduct harms New Zealand’s interests.

    Offence 78AAB – a person thus charged must commit:

    • any imprisonable offence intending to OR being reckless as to whether doing so is likely to provide a relevant benefit to a foreign power.

    New Zealand’s  “interests” include its democratic processes, its economy, rights provisions, as well as its defence and security. A “Foreign Power” ranges from a foreign government to an association supporting a political party; “relevant benefit to a foreign power” includes advancing “the coercive influence of a foreign power over persons in or outside New Zealand”.

    • READ MORE: An indictment of NZ’s settler colonial and ‘Five Eyes’ spy paranoia over political critics
    • Behind settler colonial NZ’s paranoia about dissident ‘persons of interest’

    New Zealand’s  “interests” include its democratic processes, its economy, rights provisions, as well as its defence and security. A “Foreign Power” ranges from a foreign government to an association supporting a political party; “relevant benefit to a foreign power” includes advancing “the coercive influence of a foreign power over persons in or outside New Zealand”.

    The bill also extends laws on publication of classified information, changes “official” information to “relevant” information, increases powers of unwarranted searches by authorities, and allows charging of people outside of New Zealand who “owe allegiance to the Sovereign in right of New Zealand” and aid and abet a non-New Zealander to carry out a “relevant act” of espionage, treason and inciting to mutiny even if the act is not in fact carried out.

    Why this legislation is dangerous
    1. Much of the language is vague and the terms subjective. How should we establish what an individual ‘ought to have known’ or whether he or she is being “reckless”?  It is entirely possible to be a loyal New Zealand and hold a different view to that of the government of the day about “New Zealand’s interests” and “security”.

    1. This proposed legislation is potentially highly undemocratic and a threat to free speech and freedom of association.  Ironically the legislation is a close copy of similar legislation passed in Australia in 2018 and it reflects the messaging about “foreign interference” promoted by our Five Eyes partners.

    How should we distinguish “foreign interference” from the multitude of ways in which other states seek to influence our trade, aid, foreign affairs and defence policies?  It is not plausible that the motivation behind this legislation is to limit Western pressure on New Zealand to water down its nuclear free policy.

    Or to ensure that its defence forces are interoperable with those of its allies and to be part of military exercises in the South China Sea. Or to host spyware tools on behalf of the United States. Or to sign trade agreements that favour US based corporates.

    The government openly supports these activities, so it seems that the legislation is aimed at foreign interference from current geostrategic “enemies”.   Which ones? China, Russia, Iran?

    The introduction of a bill to criminalise foreign interference has echoes of earlier Cold War times as it has the potential to criminalise members of friendship organisations that seek to improve understanding and cooperation with people in countries such as China, Russia or North Korea.

    It is entirely possible that their efforts could be seen as engaging in conduct “for or on behalf of” a  foreign power.

    There is also real concern is that this legislation could capture critics of New Zealand’s foreign and defence policy, especially if they liaise with a “foreign country”.   There is a global movement of resistance to economic sanctions on Cuba and other countries including Venezuela, and North Korea.

    Supporters are likely to liaise with representatives of those countries, and perhaps circulate their material. Could that be considered harming New Zealand’s interests?  The inclusion of such vague wording (Clause 78AAB) as “enhancing the influence” of a foreign power is chilling in its potential to silence open debate, and especially dissent or protest.

    The legislation is unnecessary
    Existing law already criminalises espionage which intentionally prejudices the security or defence of New Zealand. There are also laws to cover pressurising others by blackmail, corruption, and threats of violence or threats of harm to people and property.

    It is true that diaspora critics of authoritarian regimes come under pressure from their home governments.  Such governments seek to silence their critics who are outside their jurisdiction by threatening harm to their families still living in the home country.

    But it is not clear how New Zealand law could prevent this as it cannot protect people who are not within its jurisdiction. This is something which diaspora citizens and overseas students studying here must be acutely conscious of. This issue is one for diplomacy and negotiation rather than law.

    A threat to democracy
    The terms sedition and subversion have gone into disuse and are no longer part of our law.

    They were used in the past to criminalise some and ensure that others were subject to intrusive surveillance.

    In essence both terms justified State actions against dissidents or those who held an alternative vision of how society should be ordered.  In Cold War times the State was particularly exercised with those who championed communist ideas, took an interest in the Soviet Union or China or associated with Communists.

    Those who associated with Soviet diplomats or attended functions at the Soviet Embassy would often be subject to SIS surveillance.

    Maire Leadbeater is a leading activist and author of the recently published book The Enemy Within: The Human Cost of State Surveillance in Aotearoa/New Zealand. This article is based on a submission against the bill and was first published in The Daily Blog.

    • Crimes (Countering Foreign Interference) Amendment Bill submissions due 16 January 2025


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Canada’s next leader endorses Israeli war on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/10/canadas-next-leader-endorses-israeli-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/10/canadas-next-leader-endorses-israeli-war-on-iran/#respond Fri, 10 Jan 2025 17:27:58 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9cdde6f1f69e198d40b00fdb2d234a93
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/10/canadas-next-leader-endorses-israeli-war-on-iran/feed/ 0 509138
    Reunited with loved ones after weeks in prison in Iran 💛 https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/09/reunited-with-loved-ones-after-weeks-in-prison-in-iran-%f0%9f%92%9b/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/09/reunited-with-loved-ones-after-weeks-in-prison-in-iran-%f0%9f%92%9b/#respond Thu, 09 Jan 2025 16:47:29 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=634c47628cb8b46502d06333b4996b4b
    This content originally appeared on Amnesty International and was authored by Amnesty International.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/09/reunited-with-loved-ones-after-weeks-in-prison-in-iran-%f0%9f%92%9b/feed/ 0 508997
    Iranian journalist and documentary filmmaker detained in Evin prison https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/08/iranian-journalist-and-documentary-filmmaker-detained-in-evin-prison/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/01/08/iranian-journalist-and-documentary-filmmaker-detained-in-evin-prison/#respond Wed, 08 Jan 2025 21:38:31 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=443694 Washington D.C., January 8, 2025—The Committee to Protect Journalists is alarmed by reports that Islamic Republic of Iran authorities arrested Iranian journalist Mohammad-Hossein (Mehrdad) Aladin in the capital, Tehran, and have since detained him in Evin prison, according to news reports. 

    “Iranian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release journalist Mehrdad Aladin and cease the practice of arbitrarily jailing members of the press,” said Yeganeh Rezaian, CPJ’s interim Middle East and North Africa program coordinator. “Journalists must be able to work without fear of retaliation.”

    Aladin, a reporter, photojournalist, and a documentary filmmaker for the Didban Iran news website, was immediately arrested Janurary 7 after appearing at the preliminary court known as Shahi Moghadas, which is based inside Evin prison. Aladin was summoned earlier in the week to be interviewed before the court, according to reports. 

    Authorities have yet to publicly announce any charges against Aladin. 

    CPJ was also unable to confirm whether the journalist had been charged. 

    Aladin covers social and environmental issues. Aladin’s brother Koroush Aladin is a U.S. based journalist who reports for Voice of America Persian service. 

    CPJ emailed the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment on the arrest of Aladin but did not receive a response.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Staff.

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    Iran arrests, detains Italian journalist Cecilia Sala https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/28/iran-arrests-detains-italian-journalist-cecilia-sala/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/28/iran-arrests-detains-italian-journalist-cecilia-sala/#respond Sat, 28 Dec 2024 16:39:43 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=441624 New York, December 28 2024—CPJ is deeply concerned by the arrest of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala in Iran.

    Italy’s foreign ministry said Sala was arrested on December 19 and was being held in Iran’s notorious Evin prison, although news of her arrest was only made public on December 27.

    “Iran has a long and ignominious history of detaining journalists — both local and foreign — for reporting the realities of life in the country. We urge authorities to release Cecilia Sala immediately,” said CPJ CEO Jodie Ginsberg.

    Iran — the world’s sixth-worst jailer of journalists in CPJ’s last annual prison census, with 17 imprisoned journalists as of December 1, 2023 — has not yet commented publicly on the arrest. 


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by CPJ Staff.

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    Why Iran And The U.A.E. Fight Over Three Tiny Islands In The Persian Gulf https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/28/why-iran-and-the-u-a-e-fight-over-three-tiny-islands-in-the-persian-gulf/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/28/why-iran-and-the-u-a-e-fight-over-three-tiny-islands-in-the-persian-gulf/#respond Sat, 28 Dec 2024 13:37:39 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=3b9468cff102b4cf752434e24ffd14de
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/28/why-iran-and-the-u-a-e-fight-over-three-tiny-islands-in-the-persian-gulf/feed/ 0 507760
    Damascus and Gaza prisoners: Syrians and Palestinians search for ‘disappeared’ loved ones https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/13/damascus-and-gaza-prisoners-syrians-and-palestinians-search-for-disappeared-loved-ones/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/13/damascus-and-gaza-prisoners-syrians-and-palestinians-search-for-disappeared-loved-ones/#respond Fri, 13 Dec 2024 23:35:10 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=108208 Democracy Now!

    AMY GOODMAN: We begin today’s show in Syria, where tens of thousands of people gathered at the Great Mosque of Damascus for the first Friday prayers since longtime authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by opposition fighters.

    DAMASCUS RESIDENT: [translated] Hopefully this Friday is the Friday of the greatest joy, a Friday of victory for our Muslim brothers. This is a blessed Friday.

    AMY GOODMAN: Syria’s new caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir was among those at the mosque. He’ll act as prime minister until March.

    This comes as the World Food Programme is appealing to donors to help it scale up relief operations for the approximately 2.8 million displaced and food-insecure Syrians across the country. That includes more than 1.1 million people who were forcibly displaced by fighting since late November.

    Israel’s Defence Minister has told his troops to prepare to spend the winter holding the demilitarized zone that separates Syria from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Earlier today, Prime Minister Netanyahu toured the summit of Mount Haramun in the UN-designated buffer zone. Netanyahu said this week the Golan Heights would “forever be an inseparable part of the State of Israel”.

    On Thursday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an urgent deescalation of airstrikes on Syria by Israeli forces, and their withdrawal from the UN buffer zone.

    In Ankara, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Turkey’s Foreign Minister and the President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Blinken said the US and Turkey would [work] to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State group in Syria. Meanwhile, Erdoğan told Blinken that Turkey reserves the right to strike the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers “terrorist”.

    For more, we go to Damascus for the first time since the fall of longtime authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad, where we’re joined by the Associated Press investigative reporter Sarah El Deeb, who is based in the Middle East, a region she has covered for two decades.

    Sarah, welcome to Democracy Now! You are overlooking —

    SARAH EL DEEB: Thank you.

    AMY GOODMAN: — the square where tens of thousands of Syrians have gathered for the first Friday prayers since the fall of Assad. Describe the scene for us.


    Report from Damascus: Searching for loved ones in prisons and morgues.  Video: Democracy Now!

    SARAH EL DEEB: There is a lot of firsts here. It’s the first time they gather on Friday after Bashar al-Assad fled the country. It’s the first time everyone seems to be very happy. I think that’s the dominant sentiment, especially people who are in the square. There is ecstasy, tens of thousands of people. They are still chanting, “Down with Bashar al-Assad.”

    But what’s new is that it’s also visible that the sentiment is they’ve been, so far, happy with the new rulers, not outpour — there is no criticism, out — loud criticism of the new rulers yet. So, I’d say the dominant thing is that everyone is happy down there.

    AMY GOODMAN: Sarah El Deeb, you recently wrote an AP article headlined “Thousands scour Syria’s most horrific prison but find no sign of their loved ones.” On Tuesday, families of disappeared prisoners continued searching Sednaya prison for signs of their long-lost loved ones who were locked up under Assad’s brutal regime.

    HAYAT AL-TURKI: [translated] I will show you the photo of my missing brother. It’s been 14 years. This is his photo. I don’t know what he looks like, if I find him. I don’t know what he looks like, because I am seeing the photos of prisoners getting out. They are like skeletons.

    But this is his photo, if anyone has seen him, can know anything about him or can help us. He is one of thousands of prisoners who are missing. I am asking for everyone, not only my brother, uncle, cousin and relatives.”

    AMY GOODMAN: Talk about this mad search by Syrians across the country.

    SARAH EL DEEB: This is the other thing that’s been dominating our coverage and our reporting since we arrived here, the contrast between the relief, the sense of relief over the departure of Bashar al-Assad but then the sadness and the concern and the no answers for where the loved ones have gone.

    Thousands — also, tens of thousands of people have marched on Sednaya [prison]. It’s the counter to this scene, where people were looking for any sign of where their relatives have been. As you know really well, so many people have reported their relatives missing, tens of thousands, since the beginning of the revolt, but also before.

    I mean, I think this is a part of the feature of this government, is that there has been a lot of security crackdown. People were scared to speak, but they were — because there was a good reason for it. They were picked up at any expression of discontent or expression of opinion.

    So, where we were in Sednaya two, three days ago, it feels like one big day, I have to say. When we were in Sednaya, people were also describing what — anything, from the smallest expression of opinion, a violation of a traffic light. No answers.

    And they still don’t know where their loved ones are. I mean, I think we know quite a lot from research before arriving here about the notorious prison system in Syria. There’s secret prisons. There are security branches where people were being held. I think this is the first time we have an opportunity to go look at those facilities.

    What was surprising and shocking to the people, and also to a lot of us journalists, was that we couldn’t find any sign of these people. And the answers are — we’re still looking for them. But what was clear is that only a handful — I mean, not a handful — hundreds of people were found.

    Many of them were also found in morgues. There were apparent killings in the last hours before the regime departed. One of them was the prominent activist Mazen al-Hamada. We were at his funeral yesterday. He was found, and his family believes that — he was found killed, and his family believes his body was fresh, that he was killed only a few days earlier. So, I think the killing continued up until the last hour.

    AMY GOODMAN: I was wondering if you can tell us more about —

    SARAH EL DEEB: What was also — what was also —

    AMY GOODMAN: — more about Mazen. I mean, I wanted to play a clip of Mazen’s nephew, Yahya al-Hussein.

    YAHYA AL-HUSSEIN: [translated] In 2020, he was taken from the Netherlands to Germany through the Syrian Embassy there. And from there, they brought him to Syria with a fake passport.

    He arrived at the airport at around 2:30 a.m. and called my aunt to tell her that he arrived at the airport, and asked for money. When they reached out to him the next day, they were told that air intelligence had arrested him.

    AMY GOODMAN: That’s Mazen’s nephew, Yahya al-Hussein. Sarah, if you can explain? This was an activist who left Syria after he had been imprisoned and tortured — right? — more than a decade ago, but ultimately came back, apparently according to assurances that he would not be retaken. And now his body is found.

    SARAH EL DEEB: I think it’s — like you were saying, it’s very hard to explain. This is someone who was very outspoken and was working on documenting the torture and the killing in the secret prisons in Syria. So he was very well aware of his role and his position vis-à-vis the government. Yet he felt — it was hard to explain what Mazen’s decision was based on, but his family believes he was lured into Syria by some false promises of security and safety.

    His heart was in Syria. He left Syria, but he never — it never left him. He was working from wherever he was — he was in the Netherlands, he was in the US — I think, to expose these crimes. And I think this is — these are the words of his family: He was a witness on the crimes of the Assad government, and he was a martyr of the Assad government.

    One of the people that were at the funeral yesterday was telling us Mazen was a lesson. The Assad government was teaching all detainees a lesson through Mazen to keep them silent. I think it was just a testimony to how cruel this ruling regime, ruling system has been for the past 50 years.

    People would go back to his father’s rule also. But I think with the revolution, with the protests in 2011, all these crimes and all these detentions were just en masse. I think the estimates are anywhere between 150,000 and 80,000 detainees that no one can account for. That is on top of all the people that were killed in airstrikes and in opposition areas in crackdown on protest.

    So, it was surprising that at the last minute — it was surprising and yet not very surprising. When I asked the family, “Why did they do that?” they would look at me and, like, “Why are you asking this question? They do that. That’s what they did.” It was just difficult to understand how even at the last minute, and even for someone that they promised security, this was — this would be the end, emaciated and tortured and killed, unfortunately.

    AMY GOODMAN: Sarah, you spoke in Damascus to a US citizen, Travis Timmerman, who says he was imprisoned in Syria. This is a clip from an interview with Al Arabiya on Thursday in which he says he spent the last seven months in a prison cell in Damascus.

    TRAVIS TIMMERMAN: My name is Travis.

    REPORTER: Travis.

    TRAVIS TIMMERMAN: Yes.

    REPORTER: So, [speaking in Arabic]. Travis, Travis Timmerman.

    TRAVIS TIMMERMAN: That’s right.

    REPORTER: That’s right.

    TRAVIS TIMMERMAN: But just Travis. Just call me Travis.

    REPORTER: Call you Travis, OK. And where were you all this time?

    TRAVIS TIMMERMAN: I was imprisoned in Damascus for the last seven months. … I was imprisoned in a cell by myself. And in the early morning of this Monday, or the Monday of this week, they took a hammer, and they broke my door down. … Well, the armed men just wanted to get me out of my cell. And then, really, the man who I stuck with was a Syrian man named Ely. He was also a prisoner that was just freed. And he took me by the side, by the arm, really. And he and a young woman that lives in Damascus, us three, exited the prison together.

    AMY GOODMAN: Sarah El Deeb, your AP report on Timmerman is headlined “American pilgrim imprisoned in Assad’s Syria calls his release from prison a ‘blessing.’” What can you share about him after interviewing him?

    SARAH EL DEEB: I spent quite a bit of time with Travis last night. And I think his experience was very different from what I was just describing. He was taken, he was detained for crossing illegally into Syria. And I think his description of his experience was it was OK. He was not mistreated.

    He was fed well, I mean, especially when I compare it to what I heard from the Syrian prisoners in the secret prisons or in detention facilities. He would receive rice, potatoes, tomatoes. None of this was available to the Syrian detainees. He would go to the bathroom three times a day, although this was uncomfortable for him, because, of course, it was not whenever he wanted. But it was not something that other Syrian detainees would experience.

    His experience also was that he heard a lot of beating. I think that’s what he described it as: beating from nearby cells. They were mostly Syrian detainees. For him, that was an implicit threat of the use of violence against him, but he did not get any — he was not beaten or tortured.

    AMY GOODMAN: And, Sarah, if you could also —

    SARAH EL DEEB: He also said his release was a “blessing.” Yeah.

    AMY GOODMAN: If you could also talk about Austin Tice, the American freelance journalist? His family, his mother and father and brothers and sisters, seem to be repeatedly saying now that they believe he’s alive, held by the Syrian government, and they’re desperately looking for him or reaching out to people in Syria. What do you know?

    SARAH EL DEEB: What we know is that people thought Travis was Tice when they first saw him. They found him in a house in a village outside of Damascus. And I think that’s what triggered — we didn’t know that Travis was in a Syrian prison, so I think that’s what everyone was going to check. They thought that this was Tice.

    I think the search, the US administration, the family, they are looking and determined to look for Tice. The family believes that he was in Syrian government prison. He entered Syria in 2012. He is a journalist. But I think we have — his family seems to think that there were — he’s still in a Syrian government prison.

    But I think, so far, we have not had any sign of Tice from all those released. But, mind you, the scenes of release from prisons were chaotic, from multiple prisons at the same time. And we’re still, day by day, finding out about new releases and people who were set free on that Sunday morning.

    U.N. Calls on Israel to Stop Bombing Syria and Occupying Demilitarized Zone https://t.co/iHNIkKKOrs

    — Democracy Now! (@democracynow) December 13, 2024

    AMY GOODMAN: Finally, Sarah El Deeb, you’ve reported on the Middle East for decades. You just wrote a piece for AP titled “These Palestinians disappeared after encounters with Israeli troops in Gaza.” So, we’re pivoting here. So much attention is being paid to the families of Syrian prisoners who they are finally freeing.

    I want to turn to Gaza. Tell us about the Palestinians searching for their family members who went missing during raids and arrests by Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip. And talk about the lack of accountability for these appearances. You begin your piece with Reem Ajour’s quest to find her missing husband and daughter.

    SARAH EL DEEB: I talked to Reem Ajour for a long time. I mean, I think, like you said, this was a pivot, but the themes have been common across the Middle East, sadly. Reem Ajour last saw her family in March of 2024. Both her husband and her 5-year-old daughter were injured after an Israeli raid on their house during the chaotic scenes of the Israeli raids on the Shifa Hospital.

    They lived in the neighborhood. So, it was chaotic. They [Israeli military] entered their home, and they were shooting in the air, or they were shooting — they were shooting, and the family ended up wounded.

    But what was striking was that the Israeli soldiers made the mother leave the kid wounded in her house and forced her to leave to the south. I think this is not only Reem Ajour’s case. I think this is something we’ve seen quite a bit in Gaza. But the fact that this was a 5-year-old and the mom couldn’t take her with her was quite moving.

    And I think what her case kind of symbolises is that during these raids and during these detentions at checkpoints, families are separated, and we don’t have any way of knowing how the Israeli military is actually documenting these detentions, these raids.

    Where do they — how do they account for people who they detain and then they release briefly? The homes that they enter, can we find out what happened in these homes? We have no idea of holding — I think the Israeli court has also tried to get some information from the military, but so far very few cases have been resolved.

    And we’re talking about not only 500 or 600 people; we’re talking about tens of thousands who have been separated, their homes raided, during what is now 15 months of war in Gaza.

    AMY GOODMAN: Sarah El Deeb, we want to thank you for being with us, Associated Press investigative reporter based in the Middle East for two decades, now reporting from Damascus.

    Next up, today is the 75th day of a hunger strike by Laila Soueif. She’s the mother of prominent British Egyptian political prisoner Alaa Abd El-Fattah. She’s calling on British officials to pressure Egypt for the release of her son. We’ll speak to the Cairo University mathematics professor in London, where she’s been standing outside the Foreign Office. Back in 20 seconds.

    This article is republished from the Democracy Now! programme under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States Licence.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Where was Iran when Syria fell? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/12/where-was-iran-when-syria-fell/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/12/12/where-was-iran-when-syria-fell/#respond Thu, 12 Dec 2024 15:38:59 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=5072539cf546246181ebd3c8a4a0896c
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Is Trump “the only hope we have”? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/25/is-trump-the-only-hope-we-have/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/25/is-trump-the-only-hope-we-have/#respond Mon, 25 Nov 2024 17:05:21 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=155156 RT ran a headline: “Putin must be ‘adult in the room’ on Ukraine conflict.” This is according to left-leaning comedian and political commentator Jimmy Dore. “Joe Biden and the neo-cons in his administration have been constantly escalating war… What they’re trying to do is start a war that Donald Trump can’t stop,” warns Dore about […]

    The post Is Trump “the only hope we have”? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    RT ran a headline: “Putin must be ‘adult in the room’ on Ukraine conflict.” This is according to left-leaning comedian and political commentator Jimmy Dore.

    “Joe Biden and the neo-cons in his administration have been constantly escalating war… What they’re trying to do is start a war that Donald Trump can’t stop,” warns Dore about a potential WWIII.

    “The only hope we have is that Putin shows restraint, that he is the only adult in the room and that he can hold off somehow until Donald Trump becomes president,” Dore opined in an interview with Going Underground host Afshin Rattansi.

    Is that the only hope? One can certainly come up with many other hopes. For example, a mass mobilization by US citizenry in Washington, DC. A general strike carried out by Americans, Canadians, and Europeans repulsed by their neocon-affiliated politicians. Or that Pentagon generals speak out vociferously and publicly against such dangerous provocations against Russia. Or that people charged with inputting the coordinates for missiles targeting Russia refuse to do so.

    Far-fetched? Maybe so, but isn’t that what a hope is — something far outside of the realm of a certainty?

    Or is Trump the only feasible hope? And can Trump be trusted? How many promises did he fail to come through on during his first term as president?

    Dore asserts that “Trump is not a warmonger” and that he “got elected on ending our foreign regime-change interventionist wars.”

    Trump may very well have been elected on the basis of ending foreign interventions by the US. However, that does not excuse him from being a warmonger.

    Early in the first Trump presidency, he sent in US fighters who killed dozens of Yemeni civilians, including children. Trump was now a war criminal.

    Did Trump end the US war on Afghanistan? No, he sent more American troops to Afghanistan.

    Did Trump end the US war on Syria? No. In fact, Trump said the troops would remain because “We’re keeping the [Syrian] oil.”

    Did Trump seek peaceful relations with Iran? No. In fact, Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA which was designed to halt Iran’s potential for becoming a nuclear-armed state. Trump’s strategy has set the stage for further nuclear proliferation. And if that was not enough, Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.

    However woeful the Biden presidency has been, one ought not to forget the first Trump presidency. Trump has a track record. It seems prudent to remove the rose-colored glasses and take into consideration that track record.

    But Trump was pressured by those around him. Trump had mistakenly saddled himself with warmongering neocons in his previous administration like Nikki Haley, John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, etc. But is he different now?

    Trump’s new for Director of national security policy in the White House, Sebastian Gorka, exhibited his diplomatic decorum by referring to Russian president Vladimir Putin as a “murderous former KGB colonel, that thug.” According to Gorka, Trump is going to threaten Putin by telling him: “You will negotiate now or the aid that we have given to Ukraine thus far will look like peanuts.” Which serious-minded observers believe that Putin is now shaking in his pants?

    Does this inspire hope in Trump?

    Finally, does anyone have an iota of hope that Trump will do right in the Middle East when it comes to Israel?

    The post Is Trump “the only hope we have”? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Kim Petersen.

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    Will Trump End or Escalate Biden’s Wars? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/13/will-trump-end-or-escalate-bidens-wars/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/13/will-trump-end-or-escalate-bidens-wars/#respond Wed, 13 Nov 2024 14:49:01 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=154896 A boy sits in rubble in Gaza. Photo Credit: UNICEF When Donald Trump takes office on January 20, all his campaign promises to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and almost as quickly end Israel’s war on its neighbors will be put to the test. The choices he has made for his incoming […]

    The post Will Trump End or Escalate Biden’s Wars? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    A boy sits in rubble in Gaza. Photo Credit: UNICEF

    When Donald Trump takes office on January 20, all his campaign promises to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and almost as quickly end Israel’s war on its neighbors will be put to the test. The choices he has made for his incoming administration so far, from Marco Rubio as Secretary of State to Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense and Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador make for a rogues gallery of saber-rattlers.

    The only conflict where peace negotiations seem to be on the agenda is Ukraine. In April, both Vice President-elect JD Vance and Senator Marco Rubio voted against a $95 billion military aid bill that included $61 billion for Ukraine.

    Rubio recently appeared on NBC’s Today Show saying, “I think the Ukrainians have been incredibly brave and strong when standing up to Russia. But at the end of the day, what we’re funding here is a stalemate war, and it needs to be brought to a conclusion… I think there has to be some common sense here.”

    On the campaign trail, Vance made a controversial suggestion that the best way to end the war was for Ukraine to cede the land Russia has seized, for a demilitarized zone to be established, and for Ukraine to become neutral, i.e. not enter NATO. He was roundly criticized by both Republicans and Democrats who argue that backing Ukraine is vitally important to U.S. security since it weakens Russia, which is closely allied with China.

    Any attempt by Trump to stop U.S. military support for Ukraine will undoubtedly face fierce opposition from the pro-war forces in his own party, particularly in Congress, as well as perhaps the entirety of the Democratic party. Two years ago, 30 progressive Democrats in Congress wrote a letter to President Biden asking him to consider promoting negotiations. The party higher ups were so incensed by their lack of party discipline that they came down on the progressives like a ton of bricks. Within 24 hours, the group had cried uncle and rescinded the letter. They have since all voted for money for Ukraine and have not uttered another word about negotiations.

    So a Trump effort to cut funds to Ukraine could run up against a bipartisan congressional effort to keep the war going. And let’s not forget the efforts by European countries, and NATO, to keep the U.S. in the fight. Still, Trump could stand up to all these forces and push for a rational policy that would restart the talking and stop the killing.

    The Middle East, however, is a more difficult situation. In his first term, Trump showed his pro-Israel cards when he brokered the Abraham accords between several Arab countries and Israel; moved the U.S. embassy to a location in Jerusalem that is partly on occupied land outside Israel’s internationally recognized borders; and recognized the occupied Golan Heights in Syria as part of Israel. Such unprecedented signals of unconditional U.S. support for Israel’s illegal occupation and settlements helped set the stage for the current crisis.

    Trump seems as unlikely as Biden to cut U.S. weapons to Israel, despite public opinion polls favoring such a halt and a recent UN human rights report showing that 70% of the people killed by those U.S. weapons are women and children.

    Meanwhile, the wily Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is already busy getting ready for a second Trump presidency. On the very day of the U.S. election, Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who opposed a lasting Israeli military occupation of Gaza and had at times argued for prioritizing the lives of the Israeli hostages over killing more Palestinians.

    Israel Katz, the new defense minister and former foreign minister, is more hawkish than Gallant, and has led a campaign to falsely blame Iran for the smuggling of weapons from Jordan into the West Bank.

    Other powerful voices, national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, who is also a “minister in the Defense Ministry,” represent extreme Zionist parties that are publicly committed to territorial expansion, annexation and ethnic cleansing. They both live in illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.

    So Netanyahu has deliberately surrounded himself with allies who back his ever-escalating war. They are surely developing a war plan to exploit Trump’s support for Israel, but will first use the unique opportunity of the U.S. transition of power to create facts on the ground that will limit Trump’s options when he takes office.

    The Israelis will doubtless redouble their efforts to drive Palestinians out of as much of Gaza as possible, confronting President Trump with a catastrophic humanitarian crisis in which Gaza’s surviving population is crammed into an impossibly small area, with next to no food, no shelter for many, disease running rampant, and no access to needed medical care for tens of thousands of horribly wounded and dying people.

    The Israelis will count on Trump to accept whatever final solution they propose, most likely to drive Palestinians out of Gaza, into the West Bank, Jordan, Egypt and farther afield.

    Israel threatened all along to do to Lebanon the same as they have done to Gaza. Israeli forces have met fierce resistance, taken heavy casualties, and have not advanced far into Lebanon. But, as in Gaza, they are using bombing and artillery to destroy villages and towns, kill or drive people north and hope to effectively annex the part of Lebanon south of the Litani river as a so-called “buffer zone.” When Trump takes office, they may ask for greater U.S. involvement to help them “finish the job.”

    The big wild card is Iran. Trump’s first term in office was marked by a policy of “maximum pressure” against Tehran. He unilaterally withdrew America from the Iran nuclear deal, imposed severe sanctions that devastated the economy, and ordered the killing of the country’s top general. Trump did not support a war on Iran in his first term, but had to be talked out of attacking Iran in his final days in office by General Mark Milley and the Pentagon.

    Colin Powell’s former chief of staff, retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, recently described to Chris Hedges just how catastrophic a war with Iran would be, based on U.S.military wargames he was involved in.

    Wilkerson predicts that a U.S. war on Iran could last for ten years, cost $10 trillion and still fail to conquer Iran. Airstrikes alone would not destroy all of Iran’s civilian nuclear program and ballistic missile stockpiles. So, once unleashed, the war would very likely escalate into a regime change war involving U.S. ground forces, in a country with three or four times the territory and population of Iraq, more mountainous terrain and a thousand mile long coastline bristling with missiles that can sink U.S. warships.

    But Netanyahu and his extreme Zionist allies believe that they must sooner or later fight an existential war with Iran if they are to realize their vision of a dominant Greater Israel. And they believe that the destruction they have wreaked on the Palestinians in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the assassination of their senior leaders, has given them a military advantage and a favorable opportunity for a showdown with Iran.

    By November 10, Trump and Netanyahu had reportedly spoken on the phone three times since the election, and Netanyahu said that they see “eye to eye on the Iranian threat.” Trump has already hired Iran hawk Brian Hook, who helped him sabotage the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran in 2018, to coordinate the formation of his foreign policy team.

    So far, the team that Trump and Hook have assembled seems to offer hope for peace in Ukraine, but little to none for peace in the Middle East and a rising danger of a U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

    Trump’s expected National Security Advisor Mike Waltz is best known as a China hawk. He has voted against military aid to Ukraine in Congress, but he recently tweeted that Israel should bomb Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, the most certain path to a full-scale war.

    Trump’s new UN ambassador, Elise Stefanik, has led moves in Congress to equate criticism of Israel with anti-semitism, and she led the aggressive questioning of American university presidents at an anti-semitism hearing in Congress, after which the presidents of Harvard and Penn resigned.

    So, while Trump will have some advisors who support his desire to end the war in Ukraine, there will be few voices in his inner circle urging caution over Netanyahu’s genocidal ambitions in Palestine and his determination to cripple Iran.

    If he wanted to, President Biden could use his final two months in office to de-escalate the conflicts in the Middle East. He could impose an embargo on offensive weapons for Israel, push for serious ceasefire negotiations in both Gaza and Lebanon, and work through U.S. partners in the Gulf to de-escalate tensions with Iran.

    But Biden is unlikely to do any of that. When his own administration sent a letter to Israel last month, threatening a cut in military aid if Israel did not allow a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza in the next 30 days, Israel responded by doing just the opposite–actually cutting the number of trucks allowed in. The State Department claimed Israel was taking “steps in the right direction” and Biden refused to take any action.

    We will soon see if Trump is able to make progress in moving the Ukraine war towards negotiations, potentially saving the lives of many thousands of Ukrainians and Russians. But between the catastrophe that Trump will inherit and the warhawks he is picking for his cabinet, peace in the Middle East seems more distant than ever.

    The post Will Trump End or Escalate Biden’s Wars? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies.

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    Eugene Doyle: Axis of Genocide vs Axis of Resistance. Whose side are you on? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/08/eugene-doyle-axis-of-genocide-vs-axis-of-resistance-whose-side-are-you-on/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/08/eugene-doyle-axis-of-genocide-vs-axis-of-resistance-whose-side-are-you-on/#respond Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:17:24 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=106607 COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    Despite being appalled at my government, I winced as a New Zealander to hear my country described as part of the “Axis of Genocide”. With increasing frequency I hear commentators on West Asia/Middle East news sites hold the collective West responsible for the genocide.

    It’s a big come-down from the Global Labrador Puppy status New Zealand enjoyed recently.

    Australia too has a record of being viewed as a country with soft-power influence, albeit while a stalwart deputy to the US in this part of the world. That is over.

    • READ MORE: Israeli air strikes kill more than 100 across Gaza, Lebanon
    • All in all, Trump’s election is a calamity in he making – Paul Buchanan
    • Other Israeli war on Gaza reports


    Professor Mohammad Seyed Marandi talks to Piers Morgan Uncensored. Video: Middle East Eye

    Regrettably, Australia and New Zealand have sent troops to support US-Israel in the Red Sea (killing Yemeni people), failed to join the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel, shared intelligence with the Israelis, trained with their forces, provided R&R to soldiers fresh from the killing fields of Gaza while blocking Palestinian refugees, and extended valuable diplomatic support to Israel at the UN.

    British planes overfly Gaza to provide data, a German freighter arrived in Alexandria this week laden with hundreds of thousands of kilograms of explosives to kill yet more Palestinian civilians.

    Genocide is a collective effort of the Collective West.

    Australia and New Zealand, along with the rest of the West, “will stand by the Israeli regime until they exterminate the last Palestinian”, says Professor Mohammad Seyed Marandi, an American-Iranian academic. What our governments do is at best “light condemnation” he says, but when it counts they will be silent.

    ‘They will allow extermination’
    “They will allow the extermination of the people of Gaza. And then if the Israelis go after the West Bank, they will allow for that to happen as well. Under no circumstances do I see the West blocking extermination,” Marandi says.

    Looking at our performance over the past seven decades and what is happening today, it is an assessment I would not argue against.

    But why should we listen to someone from the Islamic Republic of Iran, you might ask. Who are they to preach at us?

    I see things differently. In our dystopian, tightly-curated mainstream mediascape it is rare to hear an Iranian voice. We need to listen to more people, not fewer.

    I’m definitely not a cheerleader for Iran or any state and I most certainly don’t agree with everything Professor Marandi says but he gives me richer insights than me just drowning in the endless propaganda of Tier One war criminals like Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Antony Blinken and their spokespeople.

    Dr Marandi, professor of English literature and orientalism at the University of Tehran, is a former member of Iran’s negotiating team that brokered the break-through JCPOA nuclear agreement (later reneged on by the Trump and Biden administrations).

    He is no shrinking violet. He has that fierceness of someone who has been shot at multiple times. A veteran of the Iran-Iraq War, Marandi was wounded four times, including twice with chemical weapons, key components of which were likely supplied by the US to their erstwhile ally Saddam Hussein.

    Killed people he knew
    Dr Marandi was in South Beirut a few weeks ago when the US-Israelis dropped dozens of bombs on residential buildings killing hundreds of civilians to get at the leader of Hezbollah (a textbook war crime that will never be prosecuted). It killed people he knew. To a BBC reporter who said, yes, but they were targeting Hezbollah, he replied:

    “That’s like saying of 7/7 [the terror bombings in London]: ‘They bombed a British regime stronghold.’ How would that sound to people in the UK?”

    Part of what people find discomforting about Dr Marandi is that he tears down the thin curtain that separates the centres of power from the major news outlets that repeat their talking points (“Israel has a legitimate right to self-defence” etc).

    The more our leaders and media prattle on about Israel’s right to defend itself, the more we sound like the Germany that terrorised Europe in the 1930s and 40s. And the rest of the world has noticed.

    As TS Eliot said: “Nothing dies harder than the desire to think well of oneself.”

    Not a man to mince words when it comes to war crimes.

    To his credit, Piers Morgan is one of the few who have invited Dr Marandi to do an extended interview. They had a verbal cage fight that went viral.

    Masterful over pointing out racism
    Dr Marandi has been masterful at pointing out the racism inherent in the Western worldview, the chauvinism that allows Western minds to treasure white lives but discount as worthless hundreds of thousands of Muslim lives taken in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen and elsewhere.

    “There is no reason to expect that a declining and desperate empire will conduct itself in a civilised manner. Iran is prepared for the worst,” he says.

    “In this great moral struggle, in the world that we live in today — meaning the holocaust in Gaza — who is defending the people of Gaza and who is supporting the holocaust? Iran with its small group of allies is alone against the West,” he told Nima Alkhorshid from Dialogue Works recently.

    The Collective West shares collective responsibility.

    Dr Marandi draws a sharp distinction between our governments and our populations. He is entirely right in pointing out that the younger people are, in countries like Australia and New Zealand, the more likely they are to oppose the genocide — as do growing numbers of young Jewish Americans who have rejected the Zionist project.

    “All people within the whole of Palestine must be equal — Jews, Muslims and Christians. The Islamic Republic of Iran will not allow the US, EU, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the Zionist regime to exterminate the Palestinians of Gaza.”

    I heard Mohammad Seyed Marandi extend an interesting invitation to us all in a recent interview. He said the “Axis of Resistance” should be thought of as open to all people who oppose the genocide in Gaza and who are opposed to continued Western militarism in West Asia.

    I would never sign up to the policies of Iran, especially on issues like women’s rights, but I do find the invitation to a broad coalition clarifying: the Axis of Genocide versus The Axis of Resistance. Whose side are you on?

    Eugene Doyle is a community organiser and activist in Wellington, New Zealand. He received an Absolutely Positively Wellingtonian award in 2023 for community service. His first demonstration was at the age of 12 against the Vietnam War. This article was first published at his public policy website Solidarity and is republished here with permission.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Iran and the Axis of Resistance https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/01/iran-and-the-axis-of-resistance/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/11/01/iran-and-the-axis-of-resistance/#respond Fri, 01 Nov 2024 08:23:01 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=154595 Two years ago, Western media and academics reported that Iran was about to begin a new revolution in order to abolish the current political system, a legacy of the 1979 revolution. They dubbed this ‘new revolution, Woman, Life, Freedom,’ and described it as a feminist and democratic revolution. But as the Iranian public saw that […]

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    Two years ago, Western media and academics reported that Iran was about to begin a new revolution in order to abolish the current political system, a legacy of the 1979 revolution. They dubbed this ‘new revolution, Woman, Life, Freedom,’ and described it as a feminist and democratic revolution. But as the Iranian public saw that the so-called leaders of this “new revolution” couldn’t organize a few thousand Iranians in a street demonstration and realized that the so-called leaders were not sovereign individuals who were dedicated to Iran, but Western-Israeli puppets, this “revolution” disappeared. The Iranian public soon found out that this “new revolution” was nothing more than riots whose main participants were thuggish elements who killed members of the police force and burned public assets, encouraged, instigated, and sponsored by western governments. Even though the so-called new revolution in Iran died a few months after its inception, Western governments and especially the Norwegian government were still hoping until October 6, 2023, for the revival of this fascist revolution to topple the government. In order to revive this alleged revolution, the Norwegian government awarded the Nobel Prize to Narges Mohammadi, a female political prisoner in Iran, whose invitation to any street protest in Iran, if she ever did, was unable to summon ten demonstrations.

    However, this seemingly great opportunity to restart the ‘new revolution’ in Iran did not last long. On the morning of 7 October 2024, the American aspiration of a feminist and democratic revolution or regime change in Iran, which was also shared by its Western allies and West Asian client regimes, was transformed into a nightmare when a few hundred Palestinians carried out the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation in the occupied Palestine. The political landscape of West Asia has been altered by this military operation in such a way that American political projects, such as the Iranian regime change and the Abraham Accords, have faded away. To the surprise of the United States and its Western allies, such as Norway, and thanks to the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, 8 October 2023 became the day of the revival of the ideals of the 1979 revolution, such as freedom and independence from Western Imperialism. The liberation of Palestine from occupation was one of the particular ideals of the Iranian revolution and the political system it generated. As the Iranian revolutionaries of 1979 comprehended Palestine until its liberation in a state of revolution, they coined the slogan “Wake up people, Iran has become Palestine” which became one of the most popular slogans of the revolution. Several days before the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation,  Western media outlet were reporting on the latest developments of the Abraham Accord and the excitement of the leaders of the slave-states of the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirate, for signing the Accord. However, the leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, cautioned the leaders of these Arab regimes about the futility of their efforts to normalize relations with the apartheid regime of Israel. He described their efforts as “betting on a losing horse” because, in his opinion, the Palestinians were more capable than ever in their struggle for liberation from occupation.

    In preparation for the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision to give the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize to Narges Mohammadi, a political activist with zero political influence in Iran, Norway organized a large gathering of Norwegian academics/imperialist agents and Iranian academics in diaspora who functioned as native informers. The Norwegian hosts were evidently interested in evaluating the degree to which the American regime change project coincided with the ‘new revolution’ in Iran. The conference persuaded the Norwegian Nobel Committee that Narges Mohammadi would be an ideal candidate for the Nobel Prize, as it would position her as a potential leader of the “new feminist and democratic” revolution in Iran. Because she is prone to repeating statements from Western masters about almost everything and remaining silent when they want her to be silent. The fact that she did not speak out regarding the Israeli genocide in Palestine explains, to a certain extent, why she was selected by the Nobel Committee as the winner of the 2023 Nobel Prize. Norway’s desire to play a role in the American regime change project in Iran was not a thoughtless decision, but a continuation of its effort in enhancing its own position in the American foreign policy strategy in the West Asia formulated in its foreign policy strategy document published in 2008. The document reveals that Norway’s foreign policy is merely an adjunct to the American foreign policy in West Asia and elsewhere. In accordance with the Norwegian foreign policy document and in the name of humanitarian intervention, Norway took an active role in the bombing of Libya in 2011. Many years later, as late as 2018, the Head of the Middle East Studies at the University of Oslo, who has been so dedicated to this foreign policy document, signs an open letter to the UN asking for humanitarian intervention in Syria. The letter to the United Nations states that Syrian sovereignty should not be viewed as a hindrance to protecting the Syrian people, as Kofi Anan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations, stated in one of his reports. According to Kofi Anan, “no legal principles — even sovereignty — can ever shield crimes against humanity.”

    The Norwegian political elite was under the impression that by giving the Nobel Prize to a nobody of Iranian politics, they could either contribute to a regime change in accordance with the American plan or transform Iran into a new Syria and a target for humanitarian intervention. However, I doubt that any European academic would have the courage to ask the United Nations for humanitarian intervention in Palestine after the Israeli genocidal response to the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation. The unconditional support of the United States and other Western governments for the Israeli genocide against the defenseless Palestinian civilians for a year and now against Lebanese civilians has led people in the Global South to realize that the real meaning of democracy, human rights, and women’s rights that Westerners have been trying to bring them was genocide. After the 7th of October 2023, people from the Global South became aware that Israel, the state that Westerners have attempted to portray as the sole democracy in West Asia, is in fact a genocidal, racist and apartheid regime. They have discovered that the sole democracy in West Asia is a remnant of the colonial settler regimes of the past. This is the reason why its conduct cannot be distinguished from the avaricious and ruthless colonial powers of the past, and its survival and future depend on the persistence of American global dominance. The al-Aqsa Flood Operation not only succeeded in bringing to the attention of global public opinion the appeal of the oppressed and ethnically cleansed Palestinians, but also in defeating the American regime change project in Iran. Furthermore, the al-Aqsa Flood Operation revealed that Iran and the Axis of Resistance were the only forces that supported the Palestinian struggle for liberation from the Israeli occupation, as part of their own struggle against Western imperialism and in defense of their national sovereignty and independence in the region. The question is: How have Iran and its allies, in the Axis of Resistance, been able to liberate or protect themselves from the ideological deceptions and political traps, introduced and created by Western imperialism and their native informers, which would divide them and put them against each other?

    Divide to Conquer and Rule

    The methods Western governments use to promote their political and economic interests in the West Asia region are rarely examined by scholars and journalists who are specialized in the region. The scholars and journalists who work in the region are interested in the ethnic, religious, social and political dividing lines, cleavages or fault lines within the states and societies to enable Western governments led by the United States to exploit these dividing lines, cleavages and fault lines to their advantage. Recently, the Middle East Eye published a critical article on the preoccupation of Western governments, media, and academia with such dividing lines, whereas this publication has been preoccupied with such fault lines since its inception. While Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with the United States and Britain, was bombing noncombatant population and civilian infrastructure in Yemen for many years, the Middle East Eye was saying that the Iranian-backed Shia Houthi positions were the targets of the bombings. This publication would happily report that the Palestinian Hamas movement issued a statement supporting the ‘constitutional legitimacy’ of the Saudi collaborator, Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. According to the Middle East Eye: “This statement is considered Hamas’s first tacit message of support for an ongoing Saudi-led military campaign against the Shiite Houthi group in Yemen, even as the Palestinian group did not clearly mention the campaign in its statement.” The Middle East Eye and outlets similar to it are the culmination of the American-Western declared plans for promoting democracy, human rights, stability and peace in West Asia. They are specialized in causing internal divisions and conflicts in the region. These media outlets typically exhibit empathy for the suffering of Palestinians and advocate for justice in the face of Israeli brutality. However, they hold Iran and the Axis of Resistance as the primary causes of instability in the region. This is why its editors, correspondents, and contributors hold an anti-Iranian position, while Iran has demonstrated that it is the only state in the entire world that sincerely supports the Palestinian struggle for liberation from the Israeli occupation. They downplay, dismiss, or criticize the Iranian position on the Palestinian issue. To create division within the Axis of Resistance, Middle East Eye spread lies about the Iranian Commander of the Qods Force’s role in the assassination of Seyed Hassan Nasrollah, the leader of Hezbollah. Qods Force is, in fact, the principal architect of the Axis of Resistance against Western imperialism and Israel in West Asia.

    There are thousands of educated individuals from the West Asia region who have been working as native informers or imperialist propagandists for the United States and its Western allies since the early 1990s. These native informers and imperialist propagandists have been recruited as academics, NGOs, or political activists. While native informers have been elaborating on social, religious, ethnic, political, and cultural divisions within the region, imperialist propagandists have been attempting to turn these divisions into actual conflicts. However, the fact that a highly respected scholar of the West Asia region told the world that the 2023 fascist riots in Iran were a revolution against internal colonization demonstrated that native informers can easily turn into imperialist propagandists when the imperialist employer says so. “Woman, Life, Freedom is a movement of liberation from this internal colonization. It is a movement to reclaim life. Its language is secular, wholly devoid of religion. Its peculiarity lies in its feminist facet.”  A decade ago, this scholar argued that the security and economic interests of Western imperialism in West Asia were compatible with the political democratization of the region and considered the so-called Arab Spring to be the expression of the union between Western governments and Arab, Iranian and Turkish democrats under the leadership of Turkey. But since he has not learned anything from the failure of the Arab Spring, he has turned from being a native informer into an imperialist propagandist who refuses to learn from his logical inconsistencies and experiences. This is the reason why, years after the failure of the “Arab Spring” and months after the morally and politically justifiable suppression of the fascist riots in Iran, this native informer-imperialist propagandist cautions those he believes to be the genuine agents of the revolutionary movement that if they are unwilling or unable to assume power, others will. In his view, it was the unwillingness of the revolutionaries or those who had initiated and carried the uprisings forward in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen to assume power that allowed the free-riders, counterrevolutionaries, and others to assume power in the “Arab Spring”.

    Before addressing the question of who are the protagonists and free riders of the “Arab Spring” in these countries, it is worth noting that the Bahraini Uprising, which was by far the most genuine uprising among the so-called “Arab Spring” uprisings, has been omitted from the narratives about the uprisings. Almost simultaneously with the brutal suppression of the Bahraini uprising by the Saudi Arabian and Emirati military, the terrorist campaigns against the Syrian government commenced. While Saudi Arabia and Qatar provided funding for the terrorist campaigns in Syria, Turkey provided logistical support for the terrorist campaign, and Western governments provided political cover by tying it to the Arab Spring. Western governments, their academia, and media, which were totally uncaring about the bloody suppression and murdering of Bahraini political activists, stood firm behind the terrorist organizations active in Syria as the only advocates of democracy and human rights. Contrary to the claims of this native informer and imperialist propagandist, almost nothing happened in Iraq and Lebanon during the ‘Arab Spring.’ After the anti-corruption demonstrations in these countries in 2019-2020 were hijacked by pro-Western and anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah forces with the active support of American embassies, these two countries were added to the ‘Arab Spring.’

    The Arab Spring 2 was an attempt to weaken and marginalize the Axis of Resistance, which included Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization forces, and the Yemeni Ansarullah. In fact, the same political forces and states that supported the Israeli war against Hezbollah in 2006, the ISIS and the Saudi-Emirati war against Yemen lauded the Arab Spring 2. Arab Spring failed because the United States and its Western allies did not recognize the sovereignty of the very nations whose democratic aspiration they claimed to support. By the term “democracy,” the United States and its allies refer to political regimes in the region that adhere to their directives and follow their advice irrespective of their national interests or deliberations. The political regimes that follow the American order in the region share one thing in common: their opposition to and animosity toward the Axis of Resistance. This has paralyzed them to express their opinion of their people and condemn the Israeli genocide in the region. Since the stability of these regimes depends on how useful they are for the Axis of Western Domination led by the United States in the region, they cannot do otherwise. Nevertheless, a significant fracture has emerged among the educated Arabs, Iranians, and Turks who have come to the realization that the true essence of the entire Western discourse on democracy, human rights, and women’s rights is genocide. The fact that Israel has been committing genocide against the Palestinian people with the direct assistance of Western governments and their media, in violation of the Genocide Convention, makes the latter an accomplice in the Israeli genocide. As per article III of the Genocide Convention, both the act of committing and complicity in genocide are punishable offenses. According to article IV: “Persons committing genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in article III shall be punished, whether they are constitutionally responsible rulers, public officials or private individuals.”

    With Israeli genocide and the unconditional support of all the members of the Axis of Western Domination led by the United States in West Asia, this Axis has been turned into an Axis of Genocide. It is noteworthy that all members of this supported the ‘new revolution’ in Iran. Israel was the most prominent sponsor of the fascist riots, with which Norway had the illusion of competing through the 2023 Nobel Prize. From 2001 to 2011, the Axis of Western Domination bombed any state or nation that hesitated to accept their submission peacefully, provided they were defenseless. They bombed and invaded Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya because they realized that these states and nations were defenseless. Due to the failure of the Axis of Western Domination in the region to subjugate Hezbollah, Syria, and Ansarullah through the Israeli war against Lebanon in 2006, the terrorist campaigns against Syria since 2011, and the Saudi-Emirati war against Yemen since 2015, the Axis of the Resistance has been formed. The Iraqi Popular Mobilization, whose main components emerged as a response to the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, joined the Axis of Resistance to fight the Western-Israeli phenomenon known as ISIS in Iraq and Syria. ISIS succeeded in controlling large parts of these two countries in 2014 through acts of genocide against all those they deemed to be unbelievers, especially Shia Muslims. Western governments and Israel hoped that an ISIS Khalifat in Syria and Iraq would end Iranian political influence in these two countries, which they viewed as a bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is the same story with Ansarullah, who were ruling the 80% of the Yemeni population. Saudi Arabia and its Western and regional backers accused Ansarullah of being an Iranian proxy but failed to defeat it after a decade. The Western backed Saudi-Emirati war against the Ansarullah movement made the movement stronger and its ties with Iran friendlier because Iran was the only state that supported them against foreign powers politically, economically and militarily. Hamas and Islamic Jihad joined the Axis of Resistance because they realized that the Axis was the only political and military force they could rely on to free Palestine from Israeli occupation. What is common between the Lebanese, Syrian, Iraqi and Syrian and Yemeni and Palestinian experience is that they had to defend their sovereignty against states and terrorist organizations that were supported by the United States, other Western governments and Israel. The Axis of Resistance is not a result of the decisions made by governments, but rather a result of the convergence of states and movements that have been fighting for their sovereignty and independence from the former Axis of Western Domination and the current Axis of Genocide in the region for several decades. Iran learned from its experience fighting alone against an enemy who had the support of Western powers in the 1980s that it was important to form an alliance against Western intervention in the West Asia region. This is why, while trapped in a devastating war, Iran helped the formation of Hezbollah, which has become the most effective resistance organization against the Israeli occupation of Lebanon since the 1980s. Iran went on to support Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which started their Armed Struggle in the 1980s and 1990s, and at the same time supported Islamic and anti-imperialist forces in Iraq and Yemen, which are now known as the Yemeni Ansarullah and Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.

    Each member of the Axis of Resistance has experienced the impacts of the Axis of Western Domination in their own country and in the region, and their actual resistance against such impacts has qualified them as constituting components of the Axis of Resistance. This is why each member of the Resistance raises the universalizing character of the Axis. If the slogan “one for all and all for one” has any meaning, it can be found in the practice and experiences of solidarity of the Axis of Resistance. While the Axis of Resistance was forming against the forces of Western Domination in the region, including Israel, not only Arab autocracies and Turkey, but also an army of native informers posing as academics and journalists argued that the people of the region could escape from the suffering of imperialist injustice if they are accustomed to it and contributed to its continuity. The terms of acceptance of imperialist injustice in the region and of contributing to its continuity were democracy, human rights, and women’s rights or moderation.

    While Turkey represented democracy, human rights, and women’s rights for a while, especially during the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia represented moderation. Therefore, the entire discourse regarding the politics of West Asia oscillated between moderation and democracy.

    Although numerous scholars promoted Turkey while advocating for the objective of ‘Making Islam Democratic,’ the responsibility of promoting Saudi Arabia was delegated to Thomas Friedman and his like-minded people. The result was a fierce competition between the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey for the consolidation of American hegemony in the region and for the normalization of Israeli apartheid in occupied Palestine. These leaders believed that their contribution to the imperialist injustice in the region and their collaboration with the Axis of Western Domination would safeguard them from harsh treatment in the ongoing injustice.

    The efforts to make themselves a darling of the imperialist dominance in the region might explain the animosity of the imperialist clients against Iran and the Axis of Resistance expressed in their countless English and Arabic media outlets. A glance at the seemingly progressive and reliable outlets such as Aljazeera and Jadaliyya, Middle East Eye, and TRT will reveal the extent of their anti-resistance and anti-Iranian posture, not to mention the media owned by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The majority of regional analysts appearing in these media outlets appear to be pro-Palestinian. Convinced of the enduring nature of the dominance of Western imperialism, led by the United States in the region, they refer to the members of the Axis of Resistance as the “proxies of the Iranian regime” to remind their audience of the temporary nature of the Iranian state. It appears that these analysts are unaware of the fact that all small and large Western governments constitute the primary obstacle to Palestinian liberation in any meaningful manner. These outlets do not mention that Iran has been subject to murderous economic sanctions for several decades because of its loyalty to its allies in the Axis of Resistance. While the Saudi-Emirati war against Ansarullah was supported by all Western governments, Iran was the only state to support the Ansarullah movement. Iran has provided support to the Yemeni Ansarullah, the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force, the Palestinian freedom fighters such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as well as the Syrian government, as they all represent forces of sovereignty who defend their independence and freedom from Western dominance.

    The United States and its Western allies have imposed economic sanctions on Iran due to their assertion that it has committed three unforgivable sins. They claim that Iran interferes with the affairs of other countries in the region, which implies that Iran does not accept the rulers imposed by the United States on the region. Thus, it supports forces that resist American interference in the region. According to American rules in the region, Palestinians must be prevented from fighting for their rights and for their liberation from Israeli bondage, and that Israel must preserve its military and technological supremacy regardless of the costs for other states and nations in the region. Iran not only regards Israel as an illegal state in the region that needs to be dismantled, but it also seeks to end American omnipotence and tyrannical power in the region, since it is the United States and its allies that allow Israel to commit genocide against the Palestinian and Lebanese people with impunity. According to American rule, Saudi Arabia on behalf of the United States should determine who should govern in Yemen, something Iran rejects and says that every state and nation must be the master of its own destiny. The second reason Iran is the target of American and Western sanctions is its advancing military technology, especially its advanced missile program, which the United States and other Western powers want to be dismantled. The real meaning of this Western demand is that Iran ceases its missile program and disarms itself so that it would not be able to reach enemy targets beyond its borders. This makes it easier for the United States and its allies to wage war against it. Iran not only succeeded in developing its military technology and accomplishing advanced missile and drone programs to secure its territorial integrity and national sovereignty against American threats, but it also succeeded in boosting the military technology of its allies in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Palestinians to be more effective against the Axis of Western Domination and Genocide in the region. Ultimately, Iran has been subjected to demonization and economic sanctions and has become a target of Israeli terrorism due to its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. The United States wants Iran to prove that it is not seeking nuclear weapons in return for easing economic sanctions against it. According to this American logic, it is not the accuser who must demonstrate through the presentation of evidence that the accused has committed a wrong, but rather the accused who must demonstrate against evidence that is not present that he or she has not committed the wrong. To satisfy the American demand and demonstrate that Iran has no intention of making nuclear weapons, Iran must dismantle its entire nuclear program and refrain from developing nuclear technology. Iran does not accept this because it is a violation of its national sovereignty. Furthermore, Iran does not wish to be deprived of all options whenever it encounters an existential threat from either Israel or the United States. Therefore, it possesses all the necessary technology to produce nuclear weapons; however, it refrains from producing such weapons as it is not currently confronting an existential threat. Recently, Iranians are reminding Western powers that if they create a threatening condition for Iran, Iranians may reconsider their nuclear policy in a matter of days.

    The rationale behind the economic sanctions, media war and regime change projects against Iran was that such measures would either install a Western friendly regime or convince Iran to change its behavior and give up its sovereignty. The United States and its allies were hoping that, even if all regime-change attempts and attempts to change Iran’s behavior fail, it would become so fragile that it could not hold the Axis of Resistance together and assist its allies in the region when they needed it most. Despite economic sanctions and technological embargo imposed by the Axis of Domination and Genocide in the region on Iran, Iran has proved to be more economically prosperous, technologically advanced, ideologically and politically influential, and militarily stronger than anticipated. Iran not only helped the Axis of Resistance economically and militarily, but also helped them achieve a high degree of technological sophistication and military self-sufficiency that no power could take from them, despite its own economic difficulties. Every member of the Axis was convinced by this that Iran believes in their talent and strength and wants them to be strong, self-sufficient, dignified, sovereign and equal members of the Axis. It suffices to compare the reverence of the Iranian leaders to that of Seyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, with the contemptuous treatment of Saad Hariri, the former Prime-Minister of Lebanon, by the leaders of Saudi Arabia. Iran and Saudi Arabia have treated these two Lebanese political leaders differently, demonstrating who is considered a sovereign ally and who is a dependent proxy.

    Iran comprehends that in the event that the Axis of Domination and Genocide defeats the apparent weaker links within the Axis, it will not be content with anything less than Iran’s complete surrender. Imperial agents and their native informers interpreted almost every Western aggression or any Western political project as a means of regime change in Iran. This included the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, the Israeli War on Lebanon, the Arab Spring, and finally the fascist riots in Iran. The fascist riots in Iran, entitled Woman, Life, Freedom, were the last misinformation and disinformation attempt by the imperialist agents and their native informers. They created the illusion for Western governments, as their employers, that Iran was on the brink of collapse and would be forced to submit to American conditions in the region. These imperialist agents and their native informers, who have been functioning as academics, journalists, political activists, and NGO activists, have failed miserably in their last attempt. All the efforts carried out by these imperialist agents and native informers who have constructed religious, political, ethnic, and gender divisions in West Asia have been guided by the principle of divide and rule. They explained that political and economic underdevelopment, conflicts, and wars in the region were related to these divisions. These epistemological assumptions serve as a guideline for Western media and pro-Western media in the West and the region, but they also serve as a point of departure for social scientists and historians in the region. What follows from the knowledge produced based on these epistemological assumptions requires the active intervention of Western governments in the region. Western governments thus finance, initiate, and establish organizations which call themselves non-governmental organizations as instruments of interference in the social and political affairs of various societies in the region. Without the financial support of their government, Western NGOs in the region will disappear. This indicates that non-governmental organizations serve to divert the local populace from the fact that Western imperialism and Western elite are the main responsible for the social, religious, and political divisions and conflicts in the region.

    Since unity, solidarity, and fraternity in the region challenge American imperialism regionally and globally, movements that promise unity, solidarity, and fraternity in the region are designed as Iranian proxies that conspire against peace and stability in the region. The imperialist agents and native informers who accuse Iran of interfering in Iraqi affairs never mention the fact that the United States has taken Iraq’s entire oil revenue hostage to impose its will on the Iraqi state. The United States and its Western allies use every political means, terrorism, mass murder and even genocide to reshape the region according to their insatiable interests. Naturally, the imperialist agents and their native informers become preoccupied with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, expansion, and influence, as well as its proxies, as the main causes of political disputes and social conflicts in the region. The anti-government and anti-corruption demonstrations in Iraq and Lebanon during the period of 2019-2020 were referred to as the Arab Spring 2 by the imperialist agents and their native informers, as they turned anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah.

    The Struggle for Sovereignty

    Iran managed to build and strengthen a regional front known as the Axis of Resistance against the alliance of the Axis of Domination and Genocide, while every regional analyst believed that the collective West and Israel were going to shape the West Asia region according to their own security and economic interests. In his last speech, Iran’s leader said that the only reason the U.S. and other Western powers support the Israeli apartheid regime is because it lets them control the natural resources of the region. He explained that by controlling the region’s resources, the West, led by the United States, would be more confident in their future conflicts with other world powers such as China and Russia. Western powers have become the accomplices of the Israeli genocide because not only their security and economic interests, but their supremacist attitude toward non-Westerners is indistinguishable from those of the Israeli regime, according to Iran’s leader. This is the reason why, rather than focusing on the racist and genocidal nature of the Israeli regime, the Western media places emphasis on its military might and portrays it as the most powerful entity in the region. According to the leader of Iran, the combination of Israel’s fictitious military might with the American aspiration of transforming this regime of apartheid and genocide into a hub for both energy export from the region to the West and for importing Western products and technology to the region prompted several regimes in the region to normalize their relations with this regime. But the Palestinians and other members of the Axis of Resistance are fighting for their freedom and independence from Israeli and American dominance in the region, which has turned this Western dream into a nightmare.

    Iran was, in fact, the first member of this resistance and was able to anticipate its formation since the 1979 revolution. The Iranian revolution transformed the country from a client of American imperialism into a sovereign and self-governing state. According to the section on foreign policy of the constitution of this sovereign state specified in articles 152, 153, and 154, Iranian governments have a duty to reject any forms of imperialist domination or interference in Iranian internal politics. Moreover, it obligates the Iranian governments to demonstrate active solidarity with all nations that oppose imperialist dominance and interference in their internal affairs. Here, the key concept is the sovereign right of nations and states to shape their societies according to their own will, aspirations, ideas, deliberations, and decisions. According to Article 152 of the Iranian constitution, The Islamic Republic of Iran is mandated to reject any form of foreign dominance within its territory, to preserve its independence and territorial integrity, and to defend the rights of all Muslims and the oppressed peoples of the world against superpowers. Article 153 prohibits any agreements that give any form of foreign control over the Iranian natural resources, economy, army, or culture. Finally, according to the Article 154, “The ideal of the Islamic Republic of Iran is independence, justice, truth, and felicity among all people of the world. Accordingly, it[the Islamic Republic] supports the just struggles of the Mustad’afun (oppressed) against the Mustakbirun (oppressors) in every corner of the globe.” During the first year of the revolution in Iran, there was a universal consensus among all revolutionary tendencies on these ideals declared by the Iranian Constitution. These articles of the Iranian constitutions are the guiding lines of the Iranian struggle to defend its state sovereignty and to support other nations in their struggles for sovereignty and independence from imperialist powers. Iran has supported the Palestinian struggle for liberation from Israeli apartheid for the same reason it supported South African struggles against apartheid. Iran stands in solidarity with Hezbollah, the Syrian government, Yemeni Ansarullah, and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces as they fight for the same independence and sovereignty that it enjoys itself. Iranian independence and sovereignty prevent it from joining the Axis of Western Domination and Genocide in the region. Iran is aware that without aiding and defending the sovereignty of others, it is unable to safeguard its own sovereignty. For a long time, the imperialist agents and their native informers have argued that the Iranian nation does not endorse Iran’s interventions in Western imperialist affairs in the region. However, recent opinion polls conducted by imperialist agents and their native informers indicate that, the majority of Iranians “are invested in the idea of providing military support to Iran’s proxy groups in the Middle East, the so-called “Axis of Resistance” (Jebhe Moqavemat). Sixty percent are in favor of this policy and 31 percent are against it.”  Western governments’ academic and media mouthpieces accuse Iran for two contradictory reasons. They blame Iran for using its financial resources to assist and empower its proxies who cause instability in the region instead of using those resources to elevate the prosperity of its own people or accuse it of using other members of the Axis of Resistance for its own interests. While the first claim assumes Iran to be a nefarious but a rational and pragmatic player in the region, the latter claim assumes Iran to be an ideological, fanatic and dogmatic actor. Iran must be contained, moderated, or subject to constant demonization, economic sanctions, terrorism, and regime change since it is the cause of instability in both cases. However, despite the numerous criminal plots against the Iranian state and nation since the revolution, Iran has steadfastly upheld the revolutionary principles of sovereignty and independence against Western imperialism and demonstrated genuine solidarity with the oppressed people who fight for their own sovereignty and independence.

    Even though the Soviet Union collapsed, which made the United States the global sovereign or consolidated its global hegemony, supported and facilitated by its various Western allies and regional clients, and to which Russia and other members of the former socialist block in Europe and Central Asia surrendered, Iran did not relinquish its sovereignty and independence. Iran faced two choices: either surrender to American global hegemony and its “new world order” or face American wrath in the form of regime change or land invasion, as it happened in Afghanistan and Iraq, Libya and Syria. Iran realized that it was impossible to protect its own sovereignty without promoting the principle of sovereignty and practicing a genuine practice of solidarity with all forces that resisted American domination and Israeli aggression in West Asia.

    This is how the Axis of Resistance as we know it today came into being.  Iranians had to resist not only the military, economic, and political consequences of American global dominance in the region, but also the circulation of its ideology by contemporary political philosophers, historians, political scientists, sociologists, and anthropologists, who theorize, justify, and normalize the American order. The Aristotelian theory of rulership and governance is at the heart of the new world order. According to this theory, the soul, composed of the rational and expedient components of the world, is destined to reign over the physical, passionate, and natural components of the world. The American world order ideology assumes that the West, led by the U.S., represents the former and the rest of the world represents the latter in the contemporary world. This theory argues that the United States and its allies represent the human elements that must rule the animal elements of the world because both men and animals are better off when animals are tamed and ruled by men. This theory assumes that, since it is always the superior who discovers this principle of ruling, he must make sure that the inferiors understand this principle. This theory makes the inferior believe that he is a slave who must obey the superior as his master and execute his orders unquestionably. According to this principle of rulership, while the task of the slave is the administration of things and production of the necessities of life, the task of the master is the administration of the slaves. Russia, which consented to being administered by the West, led by the United States, attempted to fulfill the duties of a slave and fulfill the master’s demands, however, it was unsuccessful. However, China, which has achieved great success in the administration of things and production of necessities of life, has come to the realization that as a nation, they have high expectations and desire to safeguard their sovereignty and independence. At the same time, Russia realized that their success in the administration of things and the production of the necessities of life depended on them protecting their sovereignty and independence from Western interventions in the affairs of their nation. Aristotle advised superior men to do philosophy and politics because they were the kind of science that enable the superior to command the slave who produces the necessities of life. Modern imperialism, from an Aristotelian perspective, would not be possible without modern philosophy, social sciences and humanities that have persuaded the rest of the world of their inferiority. As Aristotle argued that plants exist for the sake of animals, and animals exist for the sake of men, and the slave exist for the sake of the master, modern human and social sciences argue that non-Westerners exist for the sake of Westerners. Imperial agents and their native informers are practitioners of the social and human sciences, whose failure to convince the inferior people of their inferiority could result in the inferior people refusing to be governed by their superiors. When this occurs, the Americans and their Western allies attempt to coerce the inferior populace into submission by means of economic sanctions, intimidation, and threats. Whenever these measures fail, and the superior Westerners find the inferior people defenseless, they turn into wild beasts by indiscriminate killing of civilians, murdering babies, women, and elderly people, and destroying their homes. The Israeli Genocide of Palestinian and Lebanese people is the last example of such crimes.  While the United States, with the help of its Western allies, attempts to dominate the world by demonstrating Western superiority and the inferiority of the rest of the world, Israel fails to dominate West Asia despite all the political, economic and military help it receives from America and Europe. In 2006, Israel attempted to replicate what the United States and its Western allies accomplished in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003, but it fell short. Since the so-called Arab Spring, the United States and Israel have worked together to kill as many Libyan, Syrian, Yemeni people as they can and destroy as much of their infrastructure as they can because according to the imperialist principle, the superiors can either subjugate the inferiors or destroy them. However, Iranian revolutionary foreign policy has rejected this Western superiority complex and has tried to minimize its political consequences in the region. Iran has been trying to convince the people of the region that their struggle for sovereignty and independence from imperialist domination is impossible without the formation of a united front to resist American and Western intervention in the region. From an Iranian perspective, the resistance against the imperialist dominance in the region is intrinsically linked to the Palestinian struggle for liberation from the Israeli occupation. Iran supports the Palestinian struggle for sovereignty and independence, as an unfree Palestine would make the future of its own sovereignty and independence uncertain. Because an unfree Palestine means supremacy of the Western Axis of Domination and Genocide in the region. This may explain the moral high ground held by Iran when it comes to the Israeli genocide and its Western and regional accomplices.

    According to Aristotle in the Nicomachean Ethics, book VIII, it is with friends that men are more able to think and to act because the impacts of friendship are so significant that it can hold states together. Whereas men with friends do not have a need for justice, just men need friendship because justice has a friendly quality. But true friendship is about reciprocal goodwill, since friends wish what is good for one another for their own sake. It is the mutual recognition of goodwill between people that makes them friends. According to Aristotle, there are people who love each other for their utility and in virtue of some good which they get from each other. There are also those who love for the sake of pleasure because they find each other pleasant. Hence, those who love others for the purpose of their utility, do so for the sake of their own well-being, whereas those who love for the sake of pleasure do so for the sake of their own pleasure. If the parties don’t stay what they are to each other, their friendship will be easily broken up. For instance, when an individual ceases to be pleasant or useful to the other, the latter ceases to love them. Friendship is perfect when men are good and equal because they wish well for their friends for their own sake. Such friendships last as long as the parties remain good, and goodness is a lasting thing. Friendships such as these are not instrumental because they are not based on how useful friends are to each other. Since true friendship is rare and infrequent, it requires time and familiarity. The imperialist agents and their native informers fail to understand that Iran and the Axis of Resistance are the only true friends in Asia because they founded their friendship on mutual recognition of their sovereignty, equality, and struggle for justice. The familiarity with such virtues in each other took time, but the time was not wasted. The time was used to discover what is good in each other.

    The post Iran and the Axis of Resistance first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Yadullah Shahibzadeh.

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    "We Are in an Escalatory Cycle": Trita Parsi on Latest Israeli Attack on Iran, Risk of Wider War https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/28/we-are-in-an-escalatory-cycle-trita-parsi-on-latest-israeli-attack-on-iran-risk-of-wider-war-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/28/we-are-in-an-escalatory-cycle-trita-parsi-on-latest-israeli-attack-on-iran-risk-of-wider-war-2/#respond Mon, 28 Oct 2024 14:27:32 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=d5c2a4ee11a28b28efacd645e4d8bc91
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/28/we-are-in-an-escalatory-cycle-trita-parsi-on-latest-israeli-attack-on-iran-risk-of-wider-war-2/feed/ 0 499403
    “We Are in an Escalatory Cycle”: Trita Parsi on Latest Israeli Attack on Iran, Risk of Wider War https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/28/we-are-in-an-escalatory-cycle-trita-parsi-on-latest-israeli-attack-on-iran-risk-of-wider-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/28/we-are-in-an-escalatory-cycle-trita-parsi-on-latest-israeli-attack-on-iran-risk-of-wider-war/#respond Mon, 28 Oct 2024 12:39:18 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=35339d5e1e5069c107bd88cddf63209f Seg3 trita israel strikes

    We speak with Iranian American policy analyst Trita Parsi about Israel’s latest attack on Iran on Saturday, when it bombed military facilities and air defense systems in the country. Iran said four soldiers were killed in the attack. Israel also struck air defense batteries and radars in Syria and Iraq. Israel’s assault this weekend came about four weeks after Iran launched a missile attack on Israeli military sites in response to Israel’s war on Lebanon and Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, part of a series of actions between the two countries since the outbreak of the war on Gaza last year. “The Israelis are just continuously escalating the situation,” says Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He warns that Iran’s relatively restrained responses to Israeli actions could encourage decision-makers in both Israel and the United States to “go all the way” and strike Iranian nuclear sites and other major targets. “This, unfortunately, is leading — much thanks to the approach of the Biden administration — towards a much larger escalation.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/28/we-are-in-an-escalatory-cycle-trita-parsi-on-latest-israeli-attack-on-iran-risk-of-wider-war/feed/ 0 499395
    The Escalator Grinds to a Halt https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/26/the-escalator-grinds-to-a-halt/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/26/the-escalator-grinds-to-a-halt/#respond Sat, 26 Oct 2024 22:49:56 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=154508 It is apparently not much of an exaggeration to say that Israel’s attack on Iran fizzled. Some targets were hit and at least two Iranian soldiers were killed, but the ineffectiveness of the operation was probably due to several factors: Israel just doesn’t have the weaponry. Most of its missiles don’t have the distance, and […]

    The post The Escalator Grinds to a Halt first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    It is apparently not much of an exaggeration to say that Israel’s attack on Iran fizzled. Some targets were hit and at least two Iranian soldiers were killed, but the ineffectiveness of the operation was probably due to several factors:

    1. Israel just doesn’t have the weaponry. Most of its missiles don’t have the distance, and those that do, just barely so. That’s true for a lot of its drones, too, and they are too easily detected and don’t have the carrying power.
    2. The US didn’t aid, in particular with refueling manned aircraft. It’s just as well. It would have been a good way to lose both pilots and aircraft.
    3. Most of the nations geographically in between Israel and Iran would not permit overflights from either Israel or the US. Iran told these nations that they prefer to remain on good terms with them, and that they would consider it an act of war to lend their airspace to Israeli operations.
    4. Iranian antiaircraft systems were apparently quite effective.

    Other factors may have been involved. It is possible that cooler heads prevailed in the Israeli and US militaries, for example, but we may never know, or at least not soon. Nevertheless, the main reason that Israel did not cause more damage appears not to be a question of intention, but of capability. There’s no question that Israel was hoping for an escalation that would widen the war and force the US to enter on Israel’s side. That appears to have been avoided. Iran will have to respond, but unlike Israel, neither Iran nor the US wants escalation. Iran’s response will therefore be measured, and they will declare the matter settled.

    The Netanyahu government now finds itself squarely in check, though not yet checkmated. Nevertheless, the best it can do now is probably a stalemate. This is not good in the short run for Gaza and the Palestinians, nor for Lebanon, but it’s also not good for Israel, whose population is emigrating, whose economy is tanking, and which is generally a pariah throughout the world. Its decades of building its image as glamorous, progressive and a technological powerhouse is gone. It is now the redoubt of religious fanatics and criminals that even much of the international Jewish community is loathe to support. Its current mainstay is the international network of influence peddlers such as AIPAC, whose power has not dwindled in the US and other western governments, due to its ability to enrich the military industrial complex and to control the elective processes in these governments. With the loss of a wider base in the Jewish community, however, that power is likely to decline.

    The post The Escalator Grinds to a Halt first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Paul Larudee.

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    Media Hawks Make Case for War Against Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/25/media-hawks-make-case-for-war-against-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/25/media-hawks-make-case-for-war-against-iran/#respond Fri, 25 Oct 2024 20:48:45 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9042660  

    WSJ: Iran Opens the Door to Retaliation

    The Wall Street Journal (10/1/24) describes an Iranian missile barrage as a response to “Israel’s restraint”—rather than as a response to an Israeli terrorist bombing in Tehran, which went unmentioned in the editorial.

    The media hawks are flying high, pushing out bellicose rhetoric on the op-ed pages that seems calculated to whip the public into a war-ready frenzy.

    Just as they have done with Hezbollah (FAIR.org, 10/10/24), prominent conservative media opinionators misrepresent Iran as the aggressor against an Israel that practices admirable restraint.

    Under the headline, “Iran Opens the Door to Retaliation,” the Wall Street Journal editorial board (10/1/24) wrote that Iran’s October 1 operation against Israel “warrants a response targeting Iran’s military and nuclear assets. This is Iran’s second missile barrage since April, and no country can let this become a new normal.”

    The editors wrote:

    After April’s attack, the Biden administration pressured Israel for a token response, and President Biden said Israel should “take the win” since there was no great harm to Israel. Israel’s restraint has now yielded this escalation, and it is under no obligation to restrain its retaliation this time.

    ‘We need to escalate’

    NYT: We Absolutely Need to Escalate in Iran

    “Bully regimes respond to the stick,” Bret Stephens (New York Times, 10/1/24) declared—citing the fact that Iran was reluctant to make a nuclear deal with the United States after the United States unilaterally abrogated the last deal.

    The New York Times‘ self-described “warmongering neocon” columnist Bret Stephens (10/1/24), in a piece headlined “We Absolutely Need to Escalate in Iran,” similarly filed Iran’s April and October strikes on Israel under “aggression” that requires a US/Israeli military “response.” And a Boston Globe editorial (10/3/24) wrote that Iran “launched a brazen attack,” arguing that the incident illustrated why US students are wrong to oppose American firms making or investing in Israeli weapons.

    All of these pieces conveniently neglected to mention that Iran announced that its October 1 missile barrage was “a response to Israel’s recent assassinations of leaders of [Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], Hezbollah and Hamas” (Responsible Statecraft, 10/1/24). One of these assassinations was carried out by a bombing in Tehran, the Iranian capital. But we can only guess as to whether the Globe thinks those killings are “brazen,” Stephens thinks they qualify as “aggression,” or if the Journal believes any country can let such assassinations “become a new normal.”

    Likewise, Iran’s April strikes came after Israel’s attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers (CBS, 4/14/24). At the time, Iran reportedly said that it would refrain from striking back against Israel if the latter agreed to end its mass murder campaign in Gaza (Responsible Statecraft, 4/8/24).

    ‘Axis of Aggression’

    NYT: We Should Want Israel to Win

    Bret Stephens (New York Times, 10/8/24) thinks we’d be safer if “cunning and aggressive dictatorships…finally learned the taste of defeat.”

    A second Stephens piece (New York Times, 10/8/24) claimed that “the American people had better hope Israel wins” in its war against “the Axis of Aggression led from Tehran.” The latter is his term for the coalition of forces resisting the US and Israel from Palestine, Yemen, Lebanon and Iran, which refers to itself as the “axis of resistance.” Stephens’ reasoning is that, since Iran’s 1979 revolution, the country

    has meant suffering for thousands of Americans: the hostages at the US embassy in Tehran; the diplomats and Marines in Beirut; the troops around Baghdad and Basra, killed by munitions built in Iran and supplied to proxies in Iraq; the American citizens routinely taken as prisoners in Iran; the Navy SEALs who perished in January trying to stop Iran from supplying Houthis with weapons used against commercial shipping.

    The war Israelis are fighting now—the one the news media often mislabels the “Gaza war,” but is really between Israel and Iran—is fundamentally America’s war, too: a war against a shared enemy; an enemy that makes common cause with our totalitarian adversaries in Moscow and Beijing; an enemy that has been attacking us for 45 years. Americans should consider ourselves fortunate that Israel is bearing the brunt of the fighting; the least we can do is root for it.

    This depiction of Iran as an aggressor that has victimized the United States for 45 years, causing “suffering for thousands of Americans,” is a parody of history. The fact is that the US has imposed suffering on millions of Iranians for 71 years, starting with the overthrow of the country’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. It propped up the brutal Pahlavi dictatorship until 1979, then backed Iraq’s invasion of Iran, helping Saddam Hussein use chemical weapons against Iranians (Foreign Policy, 8/26/13). It imposes murderous sanctions on Iran to this day (Canadian Dimension, 4/3/23).

    Given this background, suggesting—as the Journal, the Globe and Stephens do—that Iran is the aggressor against the US is not only untenable but laughable. Furthermore, as I’ve previously shown (FAIR.org, 1/21/20), it’s hardly a settled fact that Iran is responsible for Iraqi attacks on US occupation forces in the country. Stephens’ description of the Navy SEALs who died in the Red Sea is vague enough that one might be left with the impression that Iran or Ansar Allah killed them, but the SEALs died when one of them fell overboard and the other jumped into the water to try to save him (BBC, 1/22/24).

    Stephens went on:

    Those who care about the future of freedom had better hope Israel wins.

    We are living in a world that increasingly resembles the 1930s, when cunning and aggressive dictatorships united against debilitated, inward-looking, risk-averse democracies. Today’s dictatorships also know how to smell weakness. We would all be safer if, in the Middle East, they finally learned the taste of defeat.

    What Stephens is deploying here is the tired and baseless propaganda strategy of hinting that World War II redux is impending if America doesn’t crush the Third World bad guy of the moment. More realistically, the “future of freedom” is jeopardized by the US/Israeli alliance’s invading the lands of Palestinian and Lebanese people and massacring them. These crimes suggest that, in the Journal’s parlance, it’s the US/Israeli partnership that is the “regional and global menace.” Or, to borrow another phrase from the Journal’s editorial, it’s Israel and the US who are the “dangerous regime[s]” from which “the civilized world” must be defended.

    ‘A global menace’

    Boston Globe: A strong Israeli defense against Iran benefits US interests

    “Iran launched a brazen attack,” the Boston Globe (10/3/24) editorialized—brazenly ignoring Israeli violence toward Iran.

    Corporate media commentators didn’t stop at Iran’s direct strikes on Israel, casting Iran as, in the Journal‘s words (10/1/24), “a regional and global menace”:

    It started this war via Hamas, which it funds, arms and trains to carry out massacres like the one on October 7, and it escalated via Hezbollah, spreading war to Lebanon. Other proxies destabilize Iraq and Yemen, fire on Israeli and US troops and block global shipping. It sends drones and missiles to Russia and rains ballistic missiles on Israel. All while seeking nukes.

    Stephens’ column (10/1/24) similarly argued that “Iran presents an utterly intolerable threat not only to Israel but also to the United States and whatever remains of the liberal international order we’re supposed to lead.” The Globe editorial (10/3/24) wrote that “the threat posed by Iran extends beyond Israel’s borders.” Both cited the Houthis in Yemen, among other alleged Iranian “proxies.”

    Painting Iran as the mastermind behind unprovoked worldwide aggression helps prop up the hawks’ demands for escalation. But the US State Department said there was “no direct evidence” that Iran was involved in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel, “either in planning it or carrying it out” (NBC, 10/12/23).

    As FAIR has shown repeatedly (e.g., FAIR.org, 4/21/21, 8/26/20), it isn’t true that Hezbollah is an Iranian puppet. The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, likewise aren’t mere proxies (Democracy Now!, 2/1/24)—and don’t expect the media hawks to tell you that the Houthis began attacking ships they understand to be Israel-linked in response to the US/Israeli assault on Gaza, and say that they will stop if the US/Israeli war crimes in Gaza end.

    Moreover, it’s clear that the Journal has no problem with US arms exports, including when they are used to carry out atrocities against civilians, so its posturing about the harm done by Iranian arms sales to Russia cannot be taken seriously (FAIR.org, 1/27/23).

    Propaganda goes nuclear

    LAT: Focus modeBreaking News Civil suit against Roman Polanski alleging 1973 child rape won’t go to trial; settlement reached Advertisement Opinion Opinion: What more do the U.S. and its allies need? It’s time to take out Iran’s nuclear sites

    Uriel Hellman (LA Times, 10/17/24) writes that “the responsible nations of the world have tried myriad methods to thwart this doomsday scenario” of Iran making a nuclear weapon, including “negotiated agreements.” The US has tried making deals with Iran, it’s tried violating those deals—nothing seems to work!

    As usual, those who are itching for a war on Iran invoke the specter of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Stephens (New York Times, 10/1/24) wrote:

    This year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Iran was within a week or two of being able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb. Even with the requisite fissile material, it takes time and expertise to fashion a nuclear weapon, particularly one small enough to be delivered by a missile. But a prime goal for Iran’s nuclear ambitions is plainly in sight, especially if it receives technical help from its new best friends in Russia, China and North Korea.

    Now’s the time for someone to do something about it.

    That someone will probably be Israel.

    By “something,” Stephens said he also meant that “Biden should order” military strikes to destroy the “Isfahan missile complex.” “There is a uranium enrichment site near Isfahan, too,” Stephens wrote suggestively.

    The LA Times published two guest op-eds in less than two weeks urging attacks on Iran based on its alleged nuclear threat. Yossi Klein Halevi (10/7/24) wrote:

    Today, Iran sits at the nuclear threshold…. The culminating moment of this war to restore Israeli deterrence against existential threat will be preventing Iran’s nuclear breakout.

    Ten days later, Uriel Heilman (LA Times, 10/17/24) argued: “With Iran’s belligerence in overdrive, the US and its allies should seriously consider a military option to take out Iran’s nuclear sites.”

    The first question posed by CBS‘s Margaret Brennan in the vice presidential debate (10/1/24)—”would you support or oppose a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran?”—was premised on the claim that Iran “has drastically reduced the time it would take to develop a nuclear weapon. It is down now to one or two weeks time.”

    ‘Threshold’ is a ways away

    NYT: To Build a Nuclear Bomb, Iran Would Need Much More Than Weeks

    If this New York Times piece (10/2/24) seems to have a different, less alarmist tone than other corporate media reports, perhaps that’s because its author, William Broad, is a science reporter and not someone whose beat is foreign policy.

    Readers who aren’t versed in the technical terms used to discuss nuclear proliferation can be forgiven for thinking that a country at “the nuclear threshold” is mere days away from being able to use nuclear weapons against their enemies, as these media warnings seem to suggest. But in reality, as the blog War on the Rocks (5/3/24) explained:

    Three distinct elements distinguish a state that has achieved a threshold status. First, the conscious pursuit of this combined technical, military and organizational capability to rapidly (probably within three to six months) obtain a rudimentary nuclear explosive capability after a decision to proceed. Second, implementation of a strategy for achieving and utilizing this status. And third, the application of this status for gain vis-à-vis adversaries, allies and/or domestic audiences. Nevertheless, a threshold state remains sufficiently short of weapons possession and even from the capacity to assemble disparate components into a nuclear weapon within days.

    According to a Congressional Research Service document (3/20/24) published in March, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports “suggest that Iran does not yet have a viable nuclear weapon design or a suitable explosive detonation system.”

    Estimates of how long it would take for Iran to develop nuclear weapons vary. US intelligence said that Iran could enrich enough uranium for three nuclear devices within weeks if it chose to do so (Congressional Research Service, 9/6/24). Yet as noted by Houston G. Wood, an emeritus professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering who specializes in atomic centrifuges and other nuclear issues, it “would take Iran up to a year to devise a weapon once it had enough nuclear fuel” (New York Times, 10/2/24).

    Siegfried S. Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos weapons laboratory, likewise told the New York Times that “it would likely take many months” for Iran to develop nukes, “not weeks.” As the Times noted, CBS‘s question in the vice presidential debate “conflated the time it would most likely take Iran to manufacture a bomb’s worth of highly enriched uranium with the overall process of turning it into a weapon. ”

    What’s more, US intelligence continues to say that Iran “is not currently undertaking nuclear weapons-related activities” (Congressional Research Service, 9/6/24). In 2003, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa against building nuclear weapons that has not yet been rescinded (FAIR.org, 10/17/17).

    ‘Iran won’t stop itself’

    IAEA: Iran is Implementing Nuclear-related JCPOA Commitments, Director General Amano Tells IAEA Board

    “Iran is implementing its nuclear-related commitments,” the IAEA (3/5/18) said in March 2018. Two months later, the same could not be said to the United States.

    Even if Iran were pursuing nuclear weapons, nothing under international law supports the idea that Israel and the US therefore have the right to attack Iran. India would not have been within its rights to attack Pakistan to prevent its rival from building a nuclear weapon.

    But media assume different rules apply to Iran. The editors of the Wall Street Journal (10/1/24) contended:

    If there were ever cause to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, [Iran’s October attack on Israel] is it…. Iran is closer than ever to a nuclear weapon and won’t stop itself. The question for American and Israeli leaders is: If not now, when?

    Recent history shows that Iran has been willing to “stop itself” from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran abided by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal, under which Iran limited its nuclear development in exchange for a partial easing of US sanctions. It stuck to the deal for some time even after the United States unilaterally abandoned it.

    Just before President Donald Trump ripped up the agreement in 2018, the IAEA reported that Iran was “implementing its nuclear-related commitments” under the accord. The year after the US abrogated the agreement, Iran was still keeping up its end of the bargain.

    ‘Provocative actions’ from US/Israel

    Responsible Statecraft: Killing the Iran nuclear deal was one of Trump's biggest failures

    Responsible Statecraft (5/7/24): “Relations between the United States and Iran have been so damaged by Trump’s withdrawal that it does not appear as though the deal can be resurrected.”

    Iran subsequently stopped adhering to the by then nonexistent deal—often advancing its nuclear program, as Responsible Statecraft (5/7/24) noted, “in response to provocative actions from the US and Israel”:

    In early 2020, the Trump administration killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and soon after Tehran announced that it would no longer abide by its enrichment commitments under the deal. But, even so, Tehran said it would return to compliance if the other parties did so and met their commitments on sanctions relief.

    In late 2020, Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated near Tehran, reportedly by Israel. Soon after, Iran’s Guardian Council approved a law to speed up the nuclear program by enriching uranium to 20%, increasing the rate of production, installing new centrifuges, suspending implementation of expanded safeguards agreements, and reducing monitoring and verification cooperation with the IAEA. The Agency has been unable to adequately monitor Iran’s nuclear activities under the deal since early 2021.

    However, situating Iranian policies in relation to US/Israeli actions like these would get in the way of the Journal’s campaign, which it articulated in another editorial (10/2/24), to convince the public that “If Mr. Biden won’t take this opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, the least he can do is not stop Israel from doing the job for its own self-preservation.”

    Of course, the crucial, unstated assumption in the articles by Stephens, Halevi, Heilman and the Journal’s editors is that Iran’s hypothetical nuclear weapons are emergencies that need to be immediately addressed by bombing the country—while Washington and Tel Aviv’s vast, actually existing nuclear arsenals warrant no concern.

     


    This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Gregory Shupak.

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    Will Netanyahu Incite a War with Iran? Leaked U.S. Docs Detail Israel’s Attack Plans https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/21/will-netanyahu-incite-a-war-with-iran-leaked-u-s-docs-detail-israels-attack-plans-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/21/will-netanyahu-incite-a-war-with-iran-leaked-u-s-docs-detail-israels-attack-plans-2/#respond Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:33:53 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=39d6950ec1e9867ba3d9c87d51f086da
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/21/will-netanyahu-incite-a-war-with-iran-leaked-u-s-docs-detail-israels-attack-plans-2/feed/ 0 498440
    Will Netanyahu Incite a War with Iran? Leaked U.S. Docs Detail Israel’s Attack Plans https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/21/will-netanyahu-incite-a-war-with-iran-leaked-u-s-docs-detail-israels-attack-plans/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/21/will-netanyahu-incite-a-war-with-iran-leaked-u-s-docs-detail-israels-attack-plans/#respond Mon, 21 Oct 2024 12:36:16 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=8270d60b59890eb0665a3b151b22cf69 Netanyahu

    The Biden administration has launched a probe after highly classified U.S. intelligence documents were posted online showing that Israel is taking steps to launch a retaliatory attack against Iran. Meanwhile, a drone hit Benjamin Netanyahu’s seaside home Saturday in what the Israeli prime minister has called an assassination attempt by “Iran’s proxy Hezbollah.” As tensions between Iran and Israel heat up, we go to Tehran to speak with Hassan Ahmadian, a professor at the University of Tehran, who says Netanyahu and Israel have continually instigated violence in the region while “trying to tell the world that it’s Iran that is the problem.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    "Itching for a War": Biden Deploys U.S. Troops to Israel as Netanyahu Threatens Escalation with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/17/itching-for-a-war-biden-deploys-u-s-troops-to-israel-as-netanyahu-threatens-escalation-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/17/itching-for-a-war-biden-deploys-u-s-troops-to-israel-as-netanyahu-threatens-escalation-with-iran/#respond Thu, 17 Oct 2024 14:27:38 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=fd9e601f96fddc20047348083c542fb9
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    “Itching for a War”: Biden Deploys U.S. Troops to Israel as Netanyahu Threatens Escalation with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/17/itching-for-a-war-biden-deploys-u-s-troops-to-israel-as-netanyahu-threatens-escalation-with-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/17/itching-for-a-war-biden-deploys-u-s-troops-to-israel-as-netanyahu-threatens-escalation-with-iran-2/#respond Thu, 17 Oct 2024 12:46:46 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=76d062db0f8844d2ea46e452073eb986 Seg3 thaad

    We look at Israel’s threats to launch retaliatory strikes against Iran as fears grow of a broader regional war. We speak to analyst Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about the Biden administration sending U.S. troops and the top-of-the-line THAAD missile defense system to Israel. “There are no direct and clear U.S. interests at stake here,” says Parsi. “Every time Israel escalates the war, Biden rushes in to protect Israel from the consequences of its own escalation,” incentivizing Israel’s escalation of tensions in the region and risking drawing the U.S. into war with Iran, he adds.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Israel Attacks U.N. Peacekeeping Forces as U.S. Sends 100 Troops Anticipating Conflict with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/14/israel-attacks-u-n-peacekeeping-forces-as-u-s-sends-100-troops-anticipating-conflict-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/14/israel-attacks-u-n-peacekeeping-forces-as-u-s-sends-100-troops-anticipating-conflict-with-iran/#respond Mon, 14 Oct 2024 14:26:50 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=5dc7577f0489d096ec6a503bcad6664b
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Israel Attacks U.N. Peacekeeping Forces as U.S. Sends 100 Troops Anticipating Conflict with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/14/israel-attacks-u-n-peacekeeping-forces-as-u-s-sends-100-troops-anticipating-conflict-with-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/14/israel-attacks-u-n-peacekeeping-forces-as-u-s-sends-100-troops-anticipating-conflict-with-iran-2/#respond Mon, 14 Oct 2024 12:51:56 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=5bd517d2e496d3d0006ecd7f24675aa8 Unifil

    Israel is facing international condemnation after repeatedly attacking U.N. peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon. At least five members of the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, have been injured in recent days. The U.N. also accused Israel of forcibly entering and destroying part of a UNIFIL base near the Israeli border after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called to remove the peacekeeping forces from the region. “The message of Israel is we don’t care about anything except Israel, and we will destroy the whole region if we need to,” says Rami Khouri, a Palestinian American journalist and senior public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut. This comes as the U.S. sends troops to Israel in anticipation of a conflict with Iran. “This is a terrible trajectory, and people will fight back against it.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Who are We to Accuse Iran of “Malign Influence”? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/12/who-are-we-to-accuse-iran-of-malign-influence/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/12/who-are-we-to-accuse-iran-of-malign-influence/#respond Sat, 12 Oct 2024 17:46:33 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=154172 “I said it loud and clear — and meant it — that I support Zionism without qualification,” Keir Starmer told Jewish News. So our brand-new prime minister has refused to rule out UK military involvement in any Israeli response to Iran’s recent missile attack, condemning what he calls Iran’s “malign role” in the Middle East. […]

    The post Who are We to Accuse Iran of “Malign Influence”? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    “I said it loud and clear — and meant it — that I support Zionism without qualification,” Keir Starmer told Jewish News.

    So our brand-new prime minister has refused to rule out UK military involvement in any Israeli response to Iran’s recent missile attack, condemning what he calls Iran’s “malign role” in the Middle East.

    And he refused to say whether MPs would get a vote beforehand on any military action. “We support Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression, in line with international law, because let’s be very clear, this was not a defensive action by Iran, it was an act of aggression and a major escalation in response to the death of a terrorist leader.

    “It exposes, once again, Iran’s malign role in the region: they helped equip Hamas for the seventh of October attacks, they armed Hezbollah, who launched a year-long barrage of rockets on northern Israel, forcing 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes, and they support the Houthis, who mount direct attacks on Israel and continue to attack international shipping.”

    Of course, Starmer didn’t mention the many attacks Israel had made on Lebanon and Iran over the years or explain why Hamas and Hezbollah came into being.

    Be honest: who exactly are the “malign” influences in the Middle East?

    Just as Britain and America would like everyone to believe that the Israel-Palestine conflict began on October 7 last year, when it had been going on since 1948 (and before), they’d like us to believe that hostilities with Iran began with the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But you have to go back over 70 years to find the root cause in America’s case, while Iranians have endured a whole century of British exploitation and bullying. The US-UK-Israel Axis don’t want this important slice of history to become part of public discourse. Here’s why.

    In 1901 William Knox D’Arcy, a Devon man, obtained from the Mozaffar al-Din Shah Qajar a 60-year oil concession to three-quarters of Persia. The Persian government would receive 16% of the oil company’s annual profits, a rotten deal as they would soon realize.

    D’Arcy, with financial support from Glasgow-based Burmah Oil, eventually found oil in commercial quantities in 1908.  The Anglo-Persian Oil Company was formed and in 1911 completed a pipeline from the oilfield to its new refinery at Abadan.

    Just before the outbreak of World War 1 Winston Churchill, then First Lord of the Admiralty, wanted to convert the British fleet from coal. To secure a reliable oil source the British Government took a major shareholding in Anglo-Persian.

    In the 1920s and 1930s, the company profited hugely from paying the Persians a miserly 16% and refusing to renegotiate terms. An angry Persia eventually canceled the D’Arcy agreement and the matter went to the Court of International Justice in The Hague. A new agreement in 1933 provided Anglo-Persian with a fresh 60-year concession but on a smaller area. The terms were an improvement but still didn’t amount to a square deal.

    In 1935 Persia became known internationally by its other name, Iran, and the company changed to Anglo-Iranian Oil. By 1950 Abadan was the biggest oil refinery in the world and the British government, with its 51% holding, had affectively colonized part of southern Iran.

    Iran’s tiny share of the profits had long soured relations and so did the company’s treatment of its oil workers. 6,000 went on strike in 1946 and the dispute was brutally put down with 200 dead or injured. In 1951, while Aramco was sharing profits with the Saudis on a 50/50 basis, Anglo-Iranian handed Iran a miserable 17.5%.

    Hardly surprising, then, that Iran wanted economic and political independence. Calls for nationalizing its oil could no longer be ignored. In March 1951 the Majlis and Senate voted to nationalize Anglo-Iranian, which had controlled Iran’s oil industry since 1913 under terms frankly unfavorable to the host country.

    Social reformer Dr. Mohammad Mossadeq was named prime minister by a 79 to 12 majority and promptly carried out his government’s wishes, canceling Anglo-Iranian’s oil concession and expropriating its assets. His explanation was perfectly reasonable: “Our long years of negotiations with foreign countries… have yielded no results thus far. With the oil revenues, we could meet our entire budget and combat poverty, disease, and backwardness among our people.

    “Another important consideration is that by the elimination of the power of the British company, we would also eliminate corruption and intrigue, by means of which the internal affairs of our country have been influenced…. Iran will have achieved its economic and political independence.” (M. Fateh, Panjah Sal-e Naft-e Iran, p. 525)

    For his impudence he would be removed in a coup by MI5 and the CIA, imprisoned for 3 years then put under house arrest until his death. Britain, determined to bring about regime change, orchestrated a worldwide boycott of Iranian oil, froze Iran’s sterling assets and threatened legal action against anyone purchasing oil produced in the formerly British-controlled refineries. The Iranian economy was soon in ruins… All sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

    America was reluctant at first to join Britain’s destructive game but Churchill (prime minister at the time) let it be known that Mossadeq was turning communist and pushing Iran into the arms of Russia just when Cold War anxiety was high. That was enough to bring America’s new president, Eisenhower, onboard and plotting with Britain to bring Mossadeq down.

    So began a nasty game of provocation, mayhem and deception. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in exile, signed two decrees, one dismissing Mossadeq and the other nominating the CIA’s choice, General Fazlollah Zahedi, as prime minister. These decrees were written as dictated by the CIA. In August 1953, when it was judged safe for him to do so, the Shah returned to take over.

    Mossadeq was arrested, tried, and convicted of treason by the Shah’s military court. He remarked: “My greatest sin is that I nationalized Iran’s oil industry and discarded the system of political and economic exploitation by the world’s greatest empire… I am well aware that my fate must serve as an example in the future throughout the Middle East in breaking the chains of slavery and servitude to colonial interests.”

    His supporters were rounded up, imprisoned, tortured or executed. Zahedi’s new government reached an agreement with foreign oil companies to form a consortium to restore the flow of Iranian oil, awarding the US and Great Britain the lion’s share, with 40% going to Anglo-Iranian.

    The consortium agreed to split profits on a 50-50 basis with Iran but refused to open its books to Iranian auditors or allow Iranians to sit on the board.

    The US massively funded the Shah’s government, including his army and his hated secret police force, SAVAK. Anglo-Iranian changed its name to British Petroleum in 1954. Mossadeq died in 1967.

    The CIA-engineered coup that toppled Mossadeq, reinstated the Shah and let the American oil companies in, was the final straw for the Iranians. The British-American conspiracy inevitably backfired 25 years later with the Islamic Revolution of 1978-9, the humiliating 444-day hostage crisis in the American embassy and a tragically botched rescue mission.

    If Britain and America had played fair and allowed the Iranians to determine their own future instead of using economic terrorism to bring the country to its knees Iran might today be “the only democracy in the Middle East”, a title falsely claimed by Israel which is actually a repulsive ethnocracy. So never mention the M-word: MOSSADEQ.

    But Britain seems incapable of playing fair. In 2022, when Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian, was freed after five years in a Tehran prison it transpired that the UK had owed around £400m to the Iranian government arising from the non-delivery of Chieftain battle tanks ordered by the Shah of Iran before his overthrow in 1979. Iran had been pursuing the debt for over four decades. In 2009 an international court in the Netherlands ordered Britain to repay the money. Iranian authorities said Nazanin would be released when the UK did so, but she suffered those years of incarceration, missing her children and husband back in the UK, while the British government took its own sweet time before finally paying up.

    Smoldering resentment for more than 70 years

    During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) the US, and eventually Britain, leaned strongly towards Saddam and the alliance enabled Saddam to more easily acquire or develop forbidden chemical and biological weapons. At least 100,000 Iranians fell victim to them.

    This is how John King, writing in 2003, summed it up. “The United States used methods both legal and illegal to help build Saddam’s army into the most powerful army in the Mideast outside of Israel. The US supplied chemical and biological agents and technology to Iraq when it knew Iraq was using chemical weapons against the Iranians. The US supplied the materials and technology for these weapons of mass destruction to Iraq at a time when it was known that Saddam was using this technology to kill his Kurdish citizens.

    “The United States supplied intelligence and battle planning information to Iraq when those battle plans included the use of cyanide, mustard gas and nerve agents. The United States blocked the UN censure of Iraq’s use of chemical weapons. The United States did not act alone in this effort. The Soviet Union was the largest weapons supplier, but England, France, and Germany were also involved in the shipment of arms and technology.”

    As it happens the company I worked for at that time supplied the Iranian government with electronic components for military equipment. We were just mulling an invitation to set up a factory in Tehran when the UK Government announced it was revoking all export licences to Iran. Britain had decided to back Saddam. Hundreds of British companies were forced to abandon the Iranians at a critical moment.

    Betraying Iran and throwing our weight behind Saddam went well, didn’t it? Saddam was overthrown in April 2003 following the US/UK-led invasion of Iraq, and hanged in messy circumstances after a dodgy trial in 2006. The dirty work was left to the Provisional Iraqi Government. At the end of the day, we couldn’t even ensure that Saddam was dealt with fairly. “The trial and execution of Saddam Hussein were tragically missed opportunities to demonstrate that justice can be done, even in the case of one of the greatest crooks of our time”, said the UN Human Rights Council’s expert on extrajudicial executions.

    Philip Alston, a law professor at New York University, pointed to three major flaws leading to Saddam’s execution. “The first was that his trial was marred by serious irregularities denying him a fair hearing and these have been documented very clearly. Second, the Iraqi Government engaged in an unseemly and evidently politically motivated effort to expedite the execution by denying time for a meaningful appeal and by closing off every avenue to review the punishment. Finally, the humiliating manner in which the execution was carried out clearly violated human rights law.”

    Alston acknowledged that “there is an understandable inclination to exact revenge in such cases” but warned that “to permit such instincts to prevail only sends the message that the rule of law continues to be mocked in Iraq, as it was in Saddam’s own time”.

    So now we’re playing dirty again, supporting an undemocratic state, Israel, which is run by genocidal maniacs and has for 76 years defied international law and waged a war of massacre, terror and dispossession against the native Palestinians. And we’re even protecting it in its lethal quarrel with Iran.

    It took President Truman only 11 minutes to accept and extend full diplomatic relations to Israel when Zionist entity declared statehood in 1948 despite the fact that it was still committing massacres and other terrorist atrocities. Israel’s evil ambitions and horrendous tactics were well known and documented right from the start but eagerly backed and facilitated by the US and UK. In the UK’s case betrayal of the Palestinians began in 1915 thanks to Zionist influence. Even Edwin Montagu, the only Jew in the British Cabinet at that time, described Zionism as “a mischievous political creed, untenable by any patriotic citizen of the United Kingdom”. A century later it is quite evident that Zionism has been the ultimate “malign influence” in the Middle East.

    Sadly, the Zionist regime’s unspeakable cruelty and inhumanity against unarmed women and children in Gaza and the West Bank — bad enough in the decades before October 2023 but now showing the Israelis as the repulsive criminals they’ve always been — still isn’t enough to end US-UK adoration for it.

    The post Who are We to Accuse Iran of “Malign Influence”? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Stuart Littlewood.

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    Biden says he’s ‘discussing’ attacking Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/06/biden-says-hes-discussing-attacking-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/06/biden-says-hes-discussing-attacking-iran/#respond Sun, 06 Oct 2024 17:08:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=e49356ace611198de85edacb32959106
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Part II: The World Confront its Malaise https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/04/part-ii-the-world-confront-its-malaise/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/04/part-ii-the-world-confront-its-malaise/#respond Fri, 04 Oct 2024 15:15:38 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=153996 Read Part 1. The events described in previous articles ─ pro-Israel influence that enabled rapid recognition by the U.S. government of the Israel regime in 1948 and an American murder of 29 Palestinians at the Cave of Patriarchs in Hebron in 1994 are not isolated relics of the past. They link to events that occur […]

    The post Part II: The World Confront its Malaise first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Read Part 1.

    The events described in previous articles ─ pro-Israel influence that enabled rapid recognition by the U.S. government of the Israel regime in 1948 and an American murder of 29 Palestinians at the Cave of Patriarchs in Hebron in 1994 are not isolated relics of the past. They link to events that occur in contemporary times and remain alive as if happening today ─ salient features in the historical narrative that a world ignored and served to claim more victims.

    Pro-Israel influence that enabled rapid recognition by the U.S. government of the Israel regime initiated the trend that guaranteed almost continuous support by the U.S. government for Israel’s mounting crimes. Made in America Baruch Goldstein, in his murderous rampage, set the stage for continuous murders of Palestinians and for the made in America bombs that extinguished the life of Hezbollah Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah.

    The constant drumming of arranged epithets and twists of reality, where an Israel committed atrocity becomes an Israel sacrifice, continues to manipulate minds. Hezbollah and its deceased leader, Hassan Nasrallah, are not portrayed as fighting to prevent the genocide of the Palestinian people by the terrorist Israeli government; they are labelled as terrorist Hezbollah and terrorist Nasrallah urging genocide of nuclear-armed Israel and as individuals who deserve the ultimate fate.

    In his speech to the United Nations (UN), Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, displayed the deranged and manipulative mind that governs Israel’s actions. He said “more resolutions have been passed by the General Assembly against Israel in the last decade than against the rest of the world’s countries,” and accused the UN of being a “house of darkness” and a “swamp of antisemitic bile.” The avalanche of UN resolutions condemning Israel’s genocidal actions prove that Israel is a “house of darkness,” a nation that has no regard for international law, and has leaders who feed upon hating other peoples. In his purposeful upside-down world, Netanyahu attempted to use valid condemnation of Israel’s actions by those who have been trusted to safeguard the world against criminal actions to prove Israel is a “shining light on the hill.”

    From Netanyahu,

    Hezbollah is the quintessential terror organization in the world today. It has tentacles that span all continents. It has murdered more Americans and more Frenchmen than any group except Bin Laden. It’s murdered the citizens of many countries represented in this room.

    Netanyahu alludes to one incident, the 40 year-old 1983 bombings of French and American barracks in Beirut. On October 23, 1983, a suicide bomber drove a truck filled with explosives into the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut and killed 241 U.S. military personnel. That same morning, another suicide attack killed 58 French soldiers in their barracks. The barracks were components of contingents of U.S. Marines and French forces that arrived in Lebanon as part of a peacekeeping mission. After the Sabra and Shatila massacres, which killed between “1,300 and 3,500 civilians, mostly Palestinians and Lebanese Shias,” and French and U.S. naval bombardments of the Shouf hills, Lebanese militants perceived the French and U.S. presences in their land as intruding forces that protected Israel’s invasion. The militants wanted these forces to leave, and, not too long after the bombings, they left. No confirmed information is available of who authorized and carried out the bombings. A formal Hezbollah did not exist at that time.

    There is definite information that Israeli air force jet fighter aircraft and navy motor torpedo boats attacked the USS Liberty on 8 June 1967, during the Six-Day War, killed 34 and wounded 171 crew members. Many Americans have been arbitrarily murdered by Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank and Gaza, about ½ dozen this year.

    Heart breaking to learn that Turkish-American woman, Aysenur Eygi, who radiates beauty, was shot and killed while protesting near Nablus. Disturbing to know the U.S. government does not hold Israeli officials responsible. Pulverizing to understand that Israel uses slaughter to send a message ─ come to Israel to help the Palestinians and you will be killed — young, old, man, woman, or child. Her life should not be forgotten, and her image should appear on every protest mechanism.

    Apply Netanyahu’s statement to situations that caused U.S. casualties, and we have, “Israel is the quintessential terror organization in the world today. It has tentacles that span all continents. It has murdered more Americans than any group except Bin Laden. It’s murdered the citizens of many countries represented at the UN.”

    Reality, truth, and facts are rarely considered by Israel’s puppets. Reading a paper placed before him, US President Joe Biden says the same as his leader.

    Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror. His death from an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians.”

    “Hundreds of Americans,” and “thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians?” Some Israeli civilians have been killed in the tit-for-tat hostilities, a minute number compared to Lebanese civilians and UN workers killed by Israel. Ex-president Joseph Biden, please name one American proven to be killed by Hezbollah since it became an official organization in 1985.

    The Israeli Prime Minister, who believes that the function of the peoples of the world is to make certain Israeli Jews live and survive well, regardless of the murders of others, recites,

    After generations in which our people were slaughtered, remorselessly butchered, and no one raised a finger in our defense, we now have a state. We now have a brave army, an army of incomparable courage, and we are defending ourselves.

    An insolent and degrading insult to all those who fought and died in World War II. The United States, Soviet Union, and their allies fought bravely to defeat the Nazi state in World War II. They raised more than their fingers; they sacrificed themselves in defense of all the European peoples. If there was a strategy to liberate anyone from the camps and secure their lives — Poles, Soviet prisoners of war, gypsies, political opponents of the Nazi regime, and Jews — they would have implemented the strategy.

    In war and immediate post-war years, communication and access to news, including firsthand knowledge was limited — no Internet, no 100 channels of television, no electronic mail, no You Tube, no digital cameras, no smart phones, no Facetime, no WhatsApp, and no social media. The ubiquitous, daily, and on site images of the violence we see today were not available to stir the mind to action. Unbelievable, that despite the enormous information that describes the genocide in Gaza, the world remains relatively passive and little effort is being applied to prevent the genocide. Just the opposite is occurring; societies are helping and encouraging it. Mr. Netanyahu, nobody encouraged the Holocaust; Mr. Netanyahu stand up and tell us why you are encouraging the genocide, requesting the Western world to contribute to your gruesome cause, and are ready to extend it to Lebanon?

    The unwary world, still unable to confront its malaise, has allowed the Israeli Jews to judge who lives and who dies, slaughtering others with impunity and without redress. Netanyahu has said it with bravado, vowing to destroy anyone in the world who harms an Israeli citizen. Recent events indicate nobody is safe from the Zionist Jews who murder with ease, without remorse, and without facing justice. Give it perspective by citing a few examples.

    The goat and sheepherders in the South Hebron Hills live a simple and basic life on semi-desert land, which is barely sufficient to feed their small herds. They don’t ask anything from anybody, don’t harm anybody, and just want to do their daily chores. Settlers from Brooklyn, New York, who never saw a goat or sheep in their life, have suddenly become herders who need room and land for their pet goats. Simple way to get it ─ forcibly evict these simple people and ruin their lives by telling them the land is now a closed “firing zone.” If they protest, well, just shoot them. A video (scroll down) shows a settler arguing with a Palestinian herder on the herder’s land in the village of al-Tawani and arbitrarily shooting him. Israeli soldiers nonchalantly regard the incident and nobody detains the assailant.

    Gaza has its daily atrocities. Israeli snipers and soldiers wantonly murder men, women, and especially children. In one episode, Israeli soldiers search a building, going from apartment to apartment. They enter an apartment and order several men to strip and then execute them. No reason and no concern for the killings. Go to “The Night Won’t End,” a film that investigates civilian killings in Gaza. View from 1:00.01 to 1:04.50 and be prepared to witness a horror.

    In the West Bank town of Qabatiya, soldiers murder several Palestinians and then commit a gruesome act — treat the lifeless bodies as rubbish and throw them off the roof into the street below.  

    The New York Times reports,

    According to Wafa (Palestine News Agency), seven Palestinians were killed by the Israeli military during a 10-hour raid into Qabatiya, south of the city of Jenin, on Thursday. Among them, Wafa said, were the three people — believed to be men — captured in the video.

    Wafa reported that, after being thrown from the building, the bodies were mutilated on the ground by the claw of an Israeli excavator before being taken away by the military.

    In describing the exploding pagers that killed about 10 people and injured several thousand in Lebanon, media, as usual, inserts a description of Hezbollah as the “terror group.” Here we have one of the most horrific terror attacks in recorded history, with innocent civilians suddenly blinded while doing their daily activities and the victims are called the terrorists.

    Biggest atrocity

    The greatest atrocity has been done to Jewish people. Since its inception, Israel Jews have been used as pawns to oppress and subjugate others and been subjected to constant attacks. Thanks to Netanyahu and his compatriots, the Jews have become the most hated people in the world. Not just animosity or mild disapproval; venomous hatred of not wanting to associate and wishing disappearance. World Jewry may not realize it but this animosity comes from democratic, freedom loving, and liberal persons, people fighting for human rights who now express belief that Zionist Jews are inhuman. Many decent and well-meaning people are following the suggestion by Palestinian poet Remi Kanazi.

    Do not cower to Zionists. Shame them. Do not welcome them in your spaces. Why should these genocide loving fascists be treated any different than any other flat out racist.

    Can the world confront its malaise? Activists should keep doing what they are doing and try to overcome the Zionists and their worldwide conspirators who find antidotes by converting protests against their malevolent actions into malevolent protests by the protestors. The latest trickery has the New York Times, Sept. 4, 2024, publish, “Across the United States this spring, Iran also used social media to stoke student-organized protests against Israel’s war in Gaza, with operatives providing financial assistance and posing as students, according to American intelligence assessments.” What nonsense.

    Well known that Israeli operatives flood social media with derogatory information on campus protestors and flattering information on their counter protestors, and hundreds of millions of dollars of donations are used to shape college presidents’ and government officials’ decisions. The Iranian agents, if they existed, probably could not buy a government or college official a cup of coffee.

    Mentioning the atrocities committed by Israel leads to the question, “What can be done to stop Israel?” Arguments to the eventual demise of the Zionist nightmare are more wish fulfillment than reality.

    The Times of Israel (TOI) features an article, “Derelict economy could sink ‘Titanic’ Israel, experts warn,” which relates, “New research paints worrying picture of decades of neglected national priorities leaving the country without the resources to face existential threats.” TOI is perspicacious, Intel has halted expansion of its facilities in Israel, delaying construction of a $25 billion factory for chip production. This pessimism gives optimism to those who believe that a disastrous economy will not be able to support a strong military. After Israel’s military decimates Hezbollah as a fighting force, Israel will no longer need a world class military to protect it from fulfilling its self-guided mission. This mission does not have a high-flying economy as its prominent feature; the Israel economy will always receive assistance from its benefactors — United States, Germany, and Jewish billionaires around the world. The salient feature of the Zionist mission is Irredentism ─ uniting of Jews around the world, physically or morally, in a supposedly united Biblical kingdom of Judah and Israel. That mission is almost completed and only enforcers composed of a small military and a large settler population will be needed to contain the Palestinians on the plantation. The shrinking labor force, due to emigrating Israelis, will be filled by the slave labor of compliant Palestinians.

    Another argument for defeating Israel treats collapse of its principal supporter, the United States of America. Accomplishing that internally does not seem plausible. A possible solution to Israel’s maddening of the civilized world lays with leaders of several nations. A world realignment of blocs, those contending American hegemony and those blindly supporting it, is occurring. The U.S. faces economic decline from Chinese competition. If a substantial number of nations are convinced that moving away from the United States and aligning with China is less dangerous than allowing the modern Israelites and their Joshua leader to continue the revival of the Biblical Conquest, slay the inhabitants of the “promised Land,” and lead the world to continuous conflagrations, they could take action and give the U.S. an offer it cannot refuse ─ stop aiding Israel or we start aiding China. Successful rearrangement of the contending blocs requires a three-way endeavor.

    • Gravitation to use of the Yuan as international currency will sink the dollar, substantially raise the price of U.S. imports, and cause a national inflation. This will be offset by lowering the cost of U.S. labor for exports and foreign investment.
    • Tariffs will have to be imposed by foreign nations to offset the reduced prices and increased competitiveness of U.S. exports
    • Nations will have to be assured they are not threatened by loss of U.S. security.

    We have a complex subject that needs discussion beyond this article. Wait, there may be a solution on the way. I don’t recommend it but ex-President and future felon, Donald Trump, proposes weakening the dollar, increasing tariffs, and providing less security to other nations.

    Will a Trump victory bring about the international realignment that forces the United States to compromise its protection of Israel to guarantee protection of its economy? What a dilemma!

    The post Part II: The World Confront its Malaise first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Inconvenient Truths: The Shia Salah al-Din and 10/7 https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/03/inconvenient-truths-the-shia-salah-al-din-and-10-7/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/03/inconvenient-truths-the-shia-salah-al-din-and-10-7/#respond Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:45:42 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=153848 Jerusalem’s hard-fought liberation, now in process, is a recapitulation of the Christian Crusades of the 11th-13th centuries, this time, not by the knight on a white horse of legend, but through the long march of guerilla warfare by the much maligned Shia. This follows on the liberation of Iran from its Judeo-Christian yoke in 1979 […]

    The post Inconvenient Truths: The Shia Salah al-Din and 10/7 first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Salah El Din – Salah El Din El Ayoubi – Saladin and Richard the Lionheart

    Jerusalem’s hard-fought liberation, now in process, is a recapitulation of the Christian Crusades of the 11th-13th centuries, this time, not by the knight on a white horse of legend, but through the long march of guerilla warfare by the much maligned Shia. This follows on the liberation of Iran from its Judeo-Christian yoke in 1979 and Iraq 25 years later, ironically by the US, forming the second Shia majority state. But it is the Shia minority of Lebanon that holds the keys to Jerusalem. Their 40% of the Lebanese population punches well above their weight in a fractious country split among Christians, and Sunni and Shia Muslims.

    Hezbollah was forged in the heat of Israeli occupation of Lebanon in the 1980s. The then-rag-tag militia killed over 600 Israeli soldiers, forcing Israel to retreat in humiliation, its first such defeat ever, and by a nonstate actor, a very bad omen, which Israel’s almost daily murder of Palestinians every since cannot erase, and which culminated in 10/7, Israel’s own private 9/11, bringing us to Israel’s carpeting bombing of Lebanon.

    It is the Shia of Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen we have to thank for preventing Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians from proceeding smoothly. Sunnis will have to wake up if they don’t want to be left behind by their Shia brothers, their self-satisfied Sunni hegemony cracked open, exposed as the ‘sick man’ of the Middle East, i.e., undermined by imperialism, the same compromised role that destroyed the Ottomans, created post-Ottoman puppet Sunni states, and planted in Palestine a cursed tree, the Quran’s poisonous zaqqum, rooted in the center of Hell, aka the Jewish state.

    The Saudis long ago were compromised through a voluntary pact with first British then US imperialism but, until the rise of Muhammed Bin Salman (MBS), were at least keeping up the trappings of Islamic ritual, jealously guarding the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. The quietist Saudis effectively blackmailed the Palestinians into accepting an interminable Israeli murderous occupation and creeping (now galloping) theft of their lands, financing Palestinian refugees, but with no promise of liberation, effectively working with not against the enemy.

    Now MBS has let the westernizers loose in his kingdom, discarding the hijab, promoting concerts of trashy western rock music, buying British football teams (Newcastle United in 2021). Trump’s Abraham Accords were supposed to lead to a new Middle East with Israel and Saudi Arabia as the kingpins. With October 7 (10/7), the bottom fell out of MBS’s fantasy of a Saudi-Isreali hegemony over the Middle East, leaving the Palestinians in permanent limbo or exile. It didn’t seem to matter to the Saudis and Gulf sheikhs, who long ago lost interest in Palestine. In thie face of this complete betrayal of the Palestinians, of Islam itself, the Shia are the only Muslims to resist the sacrilege of permanent Jewish rule over Palestine and the destruction Islam’s holy sites to build a Third Temple.

    Orthodox Sunni Muslims have always feared the moral purity which Shiism was founded on, in opposition to the more worldly, pragmatic Sunni majority. This very productive, though at times deadly, stand-off between the two strands of Islam began with Muhammad’s young cousin Ali being the first convert to Islam after the Prophet’s wife Hadija, Ali’s heroic military career defending the religion during the early, perilous battles immortalized in the Quran, through to the murder of him and his family by power-hungry rivals. The draw of idealism and justice has kept Shiism alive, and from what we see today, it is the saving grace of Islam, pushing back today against deadly secularism. Ultimately, the Sunni will have to admit that the Shia are not just an inconvenient footnote (like MBS et al would have liked to make of the Palestinians).

    20th century ummah challenges

    All Muslims will agree that the unity of the ummah is the first, most urgent, priority. The Shia, though outliers, strive for this even more, as they face hardline Sunnis who consider them apostates and would be happy to cut them loose or wipe them out. The official Sunni position has wavered over the centuries, but generally grudgingly accepts them. The imperialists of course were happy to use ‘divide and rule’, and they quickly turned a peaceful ummah into quarreling sectarians in India, Pakistan, Iraq, wherever they had the chance.1 This only really worked for post-Ottoman Iraq and Lebanon, both with large Shia communities mixed (peacefully) with Sunni. But the 20th century was one of increasing division, chaos, everywhere in the ummah. It is still on life support, held together now by the Shia thread, the ‘Shia crescent’, the only link the ummah has to Jerusalem and the Palestinians as they face annihilation, their Sunni brothers helpless or unwilling to save them.

    The British official who fashioned the new Iraq in the 1920s, Gertrude Bell, had no time for Shia, who were the majority then as now, but Gertrude had no time for democracy for the dark-skinned. I don’t for a moment doubt that the final authority must be in the hands of the Sunnis, in spite of their numerical inferiority; otherwise you will have a mujtahid-run, theocratic state, which is the very devil. She knew how the ulama in Iran had defeated the Shah on his westernizing mission, the famous tobacco fatwa of 1890 that forced the shah to cancel the British concession, and supported the constitution movement for democracy in 1905. The British had no interest in creating a radical Shia majority state and put in place a Sunni puppet king.

    Iraq’s long and violent history since then finally undid Gertrude’s machiavellian scheming in 2003, bringing to an end a truly disgusting Sunni dictatorship, and the advent of the first Shia-majority state, the positive effects of which are still being discovered. We can thank the US imperialists (even a broken clock is right twice a day) for stumbling on a winning formula for Islam (and for themselves, for the world). By genuinely promoting electoral democracy (along with opening Iraq to foreign exploitation of Iraq’s oil), it started the ball rolling on Sunni-Shia relations everywhere, including US client number one, the Saudi dictator-king, with his truly downtrodden Shia, who sit on Saudi oil and get only repression, disenfranchisement and lots of beheadings as thanks.

    The 20th century path that brought us to our present apocalyptic scenario was long and tragic. The Ottoman ‘sick man of Europe’ collapse at the end of WWI, invaded by the British and French (their Russian allies had already collapsed leaving more spoils for the victors). The end of the caliphate? For atheist Turkish dictator Mustafa Kemal that would have been fine. The Muslim ummah, both Sunni and Shia, anticipated this and had already rallied in its defense with the Khilafa Movement in 1919-1920, supported by other anti-imperialists, including Gandhi and India’s Hindus, who saw the British divide-and-rule as the poison that kept Indians subjugated.

    Kemal got his way in 1924, accusing Indian Muslim leaders, who came all the way to Ankara to beg the Turkish strongman to maintain the caliphate, of foreign election interference. As if the caliphate was a Turkish plaything The shock wave reverberated around the world culminating in the World Islamic Congress in Jerusalem in 1931 at the behest of Mohammad Amin al-Husayni, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, bringing together Muslim leaders from around the world. A truly historic moment in the history of the ummah. But the caliphate was already a pipe dream, with growing Jewish immigration to British Palestine, the intent being to create a Jewish state, an imperial outpost to control the Middle East.

    Everywhere, the Muslim world was occupied now by nominally Christian world empires, British, American, French, Dutch, the House of War (vs the ummah, the House of Peace), the the financial strings predominantly in Jewish hands, accounting for the plum Palestine being selected as a future Jewish state, purchased by the elite Jews who financed the British empire. Except for Shia Iran, which was never fully occupied and given an imperial make-over. But Iran also had its atheist modernizer, Reza Shah, who, having tricked the ulama into giving him their blessing initially, left them alone though marginalized. Though he weakened the religious establishment, outlawed the veil, and built industry and infrastructure, he was not so fanatically anti-Muslim He was anti-imperialist, and when WWII broke out, he was deposed by the British to prevent the shah from sending oil to the Germans. That occupation wrankled, and all the foreign devils, British, Russia, American were given the boot when the war ended.

    It was the Shia ulama of Iran who were the only ulama to resist imperialism,2 supporting the first genuinely independent prime minister, Mossadeq, in 1951 in his effort to kick the British out and take control of the economy. The normally quietist, conservative religious elite had been radicalized despite themselves. When the US moved in to foment a coup in 1953, the invaders were able to get a few religious leaders to bless their scheming, but this blatant imperialist act galvanized all Iranians, and eventually led to the overthrow of the second and last Pahlavi shah in 1979. Newly religious Iran was joined by newly religious Turkey with the coming to power of Recep Erdogan in 2000, who refers to his followers as ‘grandchildren of the Ottomans’. Traditional Sunni-Shia rivals, Turkey and Iran are far from bosom buddies, but the current crisis of the ummah means that differences are put aside.

    The second stumbling block for Muslims was the secular reaction to imperialism, Arab nationalism, now competing with Turkish and Persian nationalisms, fashioned as secular identities, undermining a united Islamic identity, central to the ummah. Egypt’s Nasser and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein are the two most notorious nationalist leaders, who led their countries in a death spiral of violent repression of Islam, corruption and failed military ventures.

    Nationalism was foreign to Muslims, never the defining ideology, and these nationalist movements failed, with chauvinistic Sunni radicals morphing into violent pseudo-Islamic movements – al-Qaeda, ISIS and Islamic State–Khorasan Province.

    With the current US-Israeli genocide of Palestinians, the ummah is coming together again, realizing this is the make-or-break moment for Islam, and that these nationalisms are evaporating in the heat of crisis. Even the perfidious MBS casually announced that there would be no Israeli-Saudi new order until the Palestinians have a real state. The ice is cracking, moving, as Palestine’s spring takes shape out of the Israelis’ ashes and rubble.

    Turkey and Iran had secular capitalism imposed from the top to keep the imperialists at bay. Egypt had a brutal British occupation until the 1950s, creating the same secular capitalism as Turkey and Iran, but then came socialistic dictator Nasser in 1951, injecting a new political element. Sadly, he too refused to acknowledge Islam as the bedrock of society, a more genuinely socialistic way of life, his secular vision collapsing with Israeli invasion, leaving Egypt, the largest Middle East country, far weaker now than either of its two Middle East rivals. The Arab states have all remained puppets of imperialism and remain cool to, even resentful of the new Shia vitality and presence. But the Arab masses support the Shia defiance of US-Israel, despising their Quisling leaders.

    Puppets and fledging actors

    Iran’s revolution in 1979 was bad news for the Saudis, leading to even greater repression of its Shia. Saudi suspicions and fear of Shia have been a terrible ordeal for the 10% of Saudis who are Shia, and a powerful Shia state would naturally push for justice. So instead of making peace with their Shia (and thus, with the new Iran), in the 1980s, Saudi Arabia (and Kuwait) spent $25b (i.e., gave US weapons producers $25b) in support of the brutal, mad thug, Saddam Hussein in the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988). When Saddam invaded Kuwait, cashing his US-Saudi IOU for sacrificing half million Iraqi Sunnis-Shia to kill a half million Shia Iranians, Saudi Arabia was unhappy. Not only had Saddam failed to crush Shia Iran, his defeat would mean an angry Shia state next door, which could easily invade and overthrow him.

    So King Fahd invited the US forces into the kingdom to invade Iraq and keep the Saudi kingdom as head honcho of the Muslim world. I repeat: King Fahd allowed American and coalition troops to be stationed in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian forces were involved both in bombing raids on Iraq and in the land invasion that helped to ‘liberate’ Kuwait, the so-called Gulf War (1990-1991). The ummah, the House of Peace, invaded and occupied by the House of War. MBS’s current free and easy secularism makes sense after all, but not for the ummah.

    Why would the US have gone to all the trouble to invade Iraq as part of ‘liberating’ Kuwait, and then leave the (truly odious) dictator Saddam in power? Ask weakling King Fahd, whose fear of a Shia-majority Iraq next door was even greater than his fear of a cowed, murderous Saddam. Pan-Arab nationalism – RIP.

    This enduring Sunni-Shia stand-off is the imperialists’ trump card. All the Arab countries are in varying degrees still US puppets, and persecute their Shia because they, the so-called rulers, are weak and fear the implicit critique of their weakness that the morally uncompromised Shia represent. Nigeria, Bahrain, Indonesia, Malaysia have all driven wedges between Sunnis and Shias when it was politically useful. The Sunni masses, looking for a way out of the imperialist straitjacket but educated to despise Shia, looked not to solidarity with all Muslims to fight the looming imperial enemy, but inward to past Sunni experience, the early four Rightly Guided Caliphs, for their inspiration. They downplay the fact that the finally one was Ali, the inspiration of the Shia as sole legitimate caliph of the whole lot. In the 1980s-1990s, frustrated Sunnis coalesced around radical Saudi Bin Laden and his al-Qaeda, various ISIS caliphate dreamers in central Asia, the Caucasus, Africa, internationally, with an unIslamic jihad condoning mass civilian deaths as a key tactic.

    This element continues to plague the Sunni world, the whole world. It has undermined the efforts to rebuild Iraq after the 2003 invasion. The Ba’thists were outlawed, leaving the minority Sunni with nothing, so they preferred chaos and road bombs, but Shia long-suffering patience grudgingly brought together ‘good’ Sunni and all the Shia to fight the latest (Sunni) terrorists, ISIS et al.

    10/7 was an earthquake, not just for Israel but for Islam, the Sunni-Shia tremors finally syncing on that explosive day, pushing the Sunni establishment into Shia arms. All people of goodwill now rout for the Shia Hezbollah in their battle with Israel to protect the heart and soul of Islam. Paradoxically, this challenge was anticipated by the renewal of relations between the Saudis and Iran in March 2023, anticipating 10/7, an admission that Shia power could not be ignored in the new world order taking shape under China and Russia, quite apart from the central role Iran was now playing in protecting the Palestinians from total annihilation, with the Saudis watching with alarm from the sidelines as their position at the head of the Muslim world was being usurped by events on the ground, including from its own despised 10% Shia, now demanding the same rights as citizens that the Sunnis have.

    Democracy really is the answer

    It’s finally clear: Arab nationalism has been a flop, as has been Pakistan nationalism, where the 20% Shia must constantly fight Sunni chauvinists. Indian nationalism is worse, following the path of Israel, a racist Zionized Hindutva ideology that exclused all Muslims, Sunni or Shia. Sunni chauvinism under imperialism, taking refuge in nationalism, always undermines the ummah, unless the Shia are a sizable minority or majority, and the government is sufficiently representative. I.e., democratic.

    In hindsight, I would argue the road to the liberation of Jerusalem began with Iran’s revoluton in 1979, which put Palestine liberation at the top of its international agenda. The war launched by Iraq was supposed to steamroll through a weakened Iran, as ordered by Saddam’s backers Saudi Arabia, the Soviet Union, the US and Europe. (What a cynical, bizarre coalition!) Ayatollah Khomeini was brilliant and charismatic, but a poor politician, refusing to end the war when Saddam offered, hoping to liberate Iraq, leading to 100,000s more deaths and seriously weakening and tarnishing the revolution. His hubris was immortalized in telling anecdotes. My favorite: Pakistani dictator Zia had urged the shah in 1977 to crack down even harder on the rebels. When Zia met Khomeini as the shah’s successor a few years later, Khomeini merely asked politely for Zulfikar Bhutto’s life (Zia was Bhutto’s successor) to be spared. No dice. On the contrary, Zia advised Khomeini not to tangle with a superpower. Khomeini retorted he would never do such a thing and in fact always relied in the superpower. Ouch! That only made Zia persecute his Shia even more.

    Arab secular states can’t unite when they are headed by dictators like Assad, Nasser, the Jordanian and Saudi king-dictators. Corrupt dictatorships don’t make good allies. The need for democracy is obvious. Iraq hopefully can be the model for Sunni and Shia learning to work together again under a robust electoral democracy. Sunni and Shia lived more or less till Saddam and sons really began their madness.3

    The end of Saddam moved the Shia-Sunni ‘battle lines’ 200 miles west, now running through Baghdad, which was precisely what Gertrude Bell, Saddam and the imperialists had all tried to prevent. History takes its revenge. The chauvinistic Sunni hegemony of the Muslim world is finished. The Sunni hegemons tried to overthrow Khomeini and failed. The same battle took place 12 years later in Iraq and failed again due to Shia patience in the face of Sunni-inspired terror. Thousands of Saudi and Jordanian youth went to Iraq after 2003 to fight the occupation (and looming Shia hegemony) and die, just like they did in their misguided jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Their violent self-sacrifice only digging the Sunni world deeper into a state of humiliation. 85% of ISIS in Syria working alongside the US imperialists are Saudi. They are there solely to fight the ‘sons of al-Alqami’, referring to the Shia vizier when the Mongols razed Baghdad in 1258.

    Now the Sunni are exposed as helpless in the face of Israeli genocide of the Palestinians, are actually helping ‘protect’ US-Israel from Iranian bombs intended for Israel. The Sunni world is humiliated, betraying Islam, kowtowing to not just the US but US-Israel. To defeat (Sunni-inspired) ISIS, the ‘good’ Iraqi Sunnis even had to welcome help from not just Iraq Shias (the army) but also Iran. It is high time to bury the hatchet of envy and suspicion, and join the Shia, if only because they hold the fate of the ummah in their hands.

    The ‘bad’ Sunnis (regime elites) are still supporting the US-led war on terror. Their goal is still to wreck the new, Shia-led Iraqi state and keeping the lid on their own pressure-cookers, looking over their shoulders at the (failed) Arab Spring of 2011. The Sunni elites do US-Israel’s work for it. At the same time, they are angry with the US for complicity in Shia revival, undermining House of Saud, contributing to the decline in its religious legitimacy. MBS’s secular turn is more a parody of soft power, which only undermines (Sunni) Islam. The Saudi treatment of its own Shia mirrors Israeli treatment of Palestinians.4 Sadly, it is only because Palestinians have some shred of legal independence as part of the post-WWII internationally agreed policy of decolonization that this instance of apartheid is being fought openly. Anti-Muslim apartheid is actually alive and well but hidden behind national borders (China, Myanmar).

    What remains of the insurgency in Iraq today is an alliance of Jordanians, Saudis and Iraqi Ba’thists. Syria and Saudi are both ripe for change, with Iraq and Iran as their models, but especially Iraq, with its more open, competitive elections and its large Shia population. The main legacy of the Iraq invasion was to make the Shia case, which means fighting Sunni extremism and terrorism, exposing the US Global War on Terror (GWOT) as a fraud (produced more (Sunni) terror), cementing Shiism as the adult in the room, holding the Islamic faith secure by a string, open to democracy.

    21st century the Shia century?

    This is already happening. Islamic Iran from the start allied with all anti-imperialist countries. Its revolution echoes the idealism of the Russia revolution of 1917, both of which were met by invasions by western powers and/or proxies, and both succeeding against all odds, based very much on ideological zeal for the good of mankind. Both also became authoritarian states, with elections but with limited choice. Iran’s elections are much more credible, and the election of reformers like Khatami and now Pezeshkian show there is room for real public debate. As with all countries victim to US ire, survival trumps all finer nuances, which are put on hold. Show me who your friends are, and I’ll tell you who you are. Iran’s allies are the anti-imperialist good guys.

    In contrast to the Arab states, with their muddled Islamo-nationalisms, which have failed to fashion a Sunni identity independent of imperialism, and which still exclude Shia. A shame that Shia find better allies on the secular left, with largely common political, economic and cultural goals, above all peace. Like the Jews at the heart of Bolshevism, Iraq’s Communist Party was full of Shia intellectuals (e.g., poet Muzaffar al-Nawwab). The Iraqi town Shatra in the Shia south was nicknamed Little Moscow. The Shia have a natural affinity for the secular left, supporting the underdog. The Iraqi Communist Party was reorganized after the Iraq war and its leader Hamid Majid Musa was part of the governing body the US set up. The communists wanted peace as do all communists, Islamic Iran and Iraq want peace (salam) more than anything. Neither the communists nor the ummah were/are aggressive, expansionist. Both offer(ed) a way of life that doesn’t have war built in as its engine. The communist alternative was social/state ownership and planning. The Islamic alternative is a mix of state direction/ownership and limited capitalism. There are no billionaires who aren’t emigres already. That kind of money lust is alien to a devout society or a communist one.

    Iran and Hezbollah are suffering Israel’s truly Satanic war crimes alongside their Palestinian brothers. Meanwhile the Gulf and Saudi sheikh-dictators, the Egyptian no-pretense-dictator, the Jordanian British-installed-king sit on the sidelines cursing the Palestinians for disturbing their sleep. They actually come to Israel’s aid – Egypt and Jordan are official allies of Israel – when Iran tries to hurt poor little Israel, as they already did in April 2024. The US is well aware that the Jordanian and Egyptian masses are very unhappy, but it relies on its local puppet dictators to keep the lid on the pressure-cooker, and is very cautious about exporting one-man-one-vote after its painful and expensive experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, the former once again Taliban, the latter in league with Iran against the Great Satan, which just happens to include itself, US-Israel. So don’t hold your breath for US pressure to make its dictators relinquish power. 2011 was a close call, not to be repeated.

    As for the Palestinians, they were completely left out of the negotiations about their future following the 1973 Egypt-Israel war. Sold out by (atheist, Sunni) Sadat with an empty promise. The past half century has been unremitting hell for the Palestinians, who were kicked out of Jordan in the 1970s, many ending up in southern Lebanon, living with the Shia there. This is the origins of Musa al-Sadr’s Amal and after his assassination, Hezbollah. This happened during Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, forging of a new force to confront Israel, which was given a huge boost with the Islamic revolution in Iran. Suddenly there was a ‘Shia crescent’, a genuine quasi-state opposition to Israel that functioned outside the imperial constraints.

    Musa al-Sadr represented the best of the Shia tradition, an activist cleric engaged in the life of his community, unafraid to speak truth to power. He earned a law degree from (shah-era) Tehran university. His Amal militia ran social services and acted as a political organization, a challenge to the fiction of pan-Arab unity and the unyielding reality of Sunni hegemony. Iran’s IRGC was organized by veterans of Amal training camps. Amal represented a political threat to the Arab and Palestinian establishment, and his assassination by Gaddafi was clearly a Sunni move to quash a Shia upstart.5 But he (and Israel’s brutal occupation of Lebanon in the 1980s) inspired the formation Hezbollah, which killed 654 Israeli soldiers in a few years and pushed a humiliated Israel out of Lebanon in 1985.

    ‘Good’ Sunnism is reviving but more in the emigre communities, largely in the US/Canada, Europe, Australia/ New Zealand, where there are now communities of mainstream Sunni and Shia as well as sects (Ismaili, Yazidi, Ahmadiya, Bahai’s). This young, well educated, assertive diaspora radically challenges the Sunnia world, as a new generation of Muslims takes electoral democracy for granted, and were able to gain equal rights as citizens in the ‘House of War’, which meant fight for Palestine against Israel. Effectively the need for young, educated workers to fuel its capitalist machine ended up importing the ‘enemy’ to the heart of imperialism. As these mostly Sunni Muslims spread their message of ‘goodwill to all men’, colonized, persecuted Palestine has gradually gained the edge over colonizer, persecutor Israel. They are joined by a growing community of converts, as people find out about Islam from friendly, law-abiding neighbors. Islam is the fastest growing religion everywhere.

    The Shia are Islam’s ‘wandering Jews’ but without the usury, so they have a presence on all continents, mostly persecuted (or just ignored) by Sunni majorities (but not everywhere). The Sunni too are like the Jews with their world network, a persecuted minority (but not everywhere). In fact, Sunni emigres are free to criticize Israel and their own native Muslim-majority countries in the West, where, say, in Egypt or Pakistan that could land them in jail or worse. As with the Jews, the spread of both Sunni and Shia presence virtually everywhere creates a powerful network for mutual support, to ensure both Shia and Sunni, emigre and domestic, are vital parts of the ummah, all devoted to defending Palestine and liberating Jerusalem. A kind of benign Judaism.6 Democracy brings power to Shia majorities and give voice to minorities, resisting Sunni terrorists. The goal remains the liberation of Jerusalem, but the center of gravity has shifted from Saudi Arabia, Egypt to Iran and Iraq, now stretching from Lebanon and Syria along the Shia axis of resistance.

    The US allies with the pragmatic Sunni dictators, hates, targets Shia, but they are the best defense against real terrorists (Saudi/ Jordanian ‘jihadists’, ISIS, US-Israel). Standing up to tyranny is never popular with tyrants. By overthrowing Saddam, the US unwittingly paved the way for the Shia revival. Ayatollah Sistani brilliantly used the opening to guarantee democratic Shia hegemony in Iraq as a model for a renewed Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, in short, the Muslim ummah. The Iraqi Shia proved that it is possible to work with the US and not compromise. Sistani refused to meet with US officials: Mr Bremer, you are American I am Iranian. Leave it up to the Iraqis to devise their constitution. He challenged US plans to hand power to Allawi, Chalabi. Insisted on one-person, one-vote. When the US refused, he called for large demos over five consecutive days until the US relented.7

    Iraqi Shia abandoned the Iraqi nationalism of Saddam. The renewed nationalism is firmly nonsectarian, uniting the ummah. This is a powerful message to the other Arab states. It is fitting that Palestine has brought the Sunni to the Shia-led defense of Jerusalem. Israel can be defeated only by a united ummah which acts wisely, with restraint, indefatigable. It is also a message to Israel and the Palestinians about inventing a new nationalism based on peace and reconciliation.

    ENDNOTES:

    The post Inconvenient Truths: The Shia Salah al-Din and 10/7 first appeared on Dissident Voice.
    1    To give the US occupiers of Afghanistan 2001–2022, they made sure Afghan Shia, the Hazars, were given full rights in the new constitution, where the state was carefully dubbed Islamic, reflecting the new identity-politics imperialism.
    2    Sunni Sufis resisted imperialism (Algeria, Caucasus) but never the Sunni establishment. Grand Mufti of Egypt Muhammad Abduh (d. 1905) was a westernizing reformer. His legendary friend (Shia) Jamal al-Afghani was anti-imperialist but didn’t manage to do much.
    3    Democracies are not immune from this as Biden’s pathetic defense of his son shows how family concerns can seriously undermine any legacy of good the leader accomplishes.
    4    They have no public voice, all 300 Shia girls’ schools have Sunni headmistresses, they sit on the oil wealth and get only low paid jobs, scholars get their heads chopped off, etc.
    5    Probably out of jealousy, as he saw himself as the savior of Palestine. See Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival, 2006, p 113.
    6    This could be why Israel so detests Iran. Initially, Israel was admired by Iranian intellectuals. Jalāl Āl-e-Ahmad visited Israel in 1962 and recorded his experiences in The Israeli republic (1962). But when he observed the treatment of Palestinians, he soured and Iranians broadly criticized ‘westoxification’, anticipating the revolution’s clear anti-imperialism. Only Iran really ‘gets’ imperialism.
    7    Vali Nasr, op.cit., p175.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Eric Walberg.

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    Israel Strikes Downtown Beirut As Iran Warns Of Larger Strikes | Iran Attacks Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/03/israel-strikes-downtown-beirut-as-iran-warns-of-larger-strikes-iran-attacks-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/03/israel-strikes-downtown-beirut-as-iran-warns-of-larger-strikes-iran-attacks-israel/#respond Thu, 03 Oct 2024 10:01:30 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=3b4ec61721ec4eb8086d46c0e8f0a647
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    Biden’s Israel Policy Has Led Us to the Brink of War on Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/02/bidens-israel-policy-has-led-us-to-the-brink-of-war-on-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/02/bidens-israel-policy-has-led-us-to-the-brink-of-war-on-iran/#respond Wed, 02 Oct 2024 23:59:17 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=153970 Photo credit: CODEPINK On October 1, Iran fired about 180 missiles at Israel in response to Israel’s recent assassinations of leaders of its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), Hezbollah, and Hamas. There are conflicting reports about how many of the missiles struck their targets and if there were any deaths. But Israel is now considering a counterattack that could propel it […]

    The post Biden’s Israel Policy Has Led Us to the Brink of War on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Photo credit: CODEPINK

    On October 1, Iran fired about 180 missiles at Israel in response to Israel’s recent assassinations of leaders of its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), Hezbollah, and Hamas. There are conflicting reports about how many of the missiles struck their targets and if there were any deaths. But Israel is now considering a counterattack that could propel it into an all-out war with Iran, with the U.S. in tow.

    For years, Iran has been trying to avoid such a war. That is why it signed the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement with the United States, the U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China and the European Union. Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA in 2018, and despite Joe Biden’s much-touted differences with Trump, he failed to restore U.S. compliance. Instead, he tried to use Trump’s violation of the treaty as leverage to demand further concessions from Iran. This only served to further aggravate the schism between the United States and Iran, which have had no diplomatic relations since 1980.

    Now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees his long-awaited chance to draw the United States into war with Iran. By killing Iranian military leaders and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, as well as attacking Iran’s allies in Lebanon and Yemen, Netanyahu provoked a military response from Iran that has given him an excuse to widen the conflict even further. Tragically, there are warmongering U.S. officials who would welcome a war on Iran, and many more who would blindly go along with it.

    Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, campaigned on a platform of reconciling with the West. When he came to New York to speak at the UN General Assembly on September 25, he was accompanied by three members of Iran’s JCPOA negotiating team: former foreign minister Javad Zarif; current foreign minister Abbas Araghchi; and deputy foreign minister Majid Ravanchi.

    President Pezeshkian’s message in New York was conciliatory. With Zarif and Araghchi at his side at a press conference on September 23, he talked of peace, and of reviving the dormant nuclear agreement. “Vis-a-vis the JCPOA, we said 100 times we are willing to live up to our agreements,” he said. “We do hope we can sit at the table and hold discussions.”

    On the crisis in the Middle East, Pezeshkian said that Iran wanted peace and had exercised restraint in the face of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, its assassinations of resistance leaders and Iranian officials, and its war on its neighbors.

    “Let’s create a situation where we can co-exist,” said Pezeshkian. “Let’s try to resolve tensions through dialogue…We are willing to put all of our weapons aside so long as Israel will do the same.” He added that Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while Israel is not, and that Israel’s nuclear arsenal is a serious threat to Iran.

    Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s desire for peace in his speech at the UN General Assembly.

    “I am the president of a country that has endured threats, war, occupation, and sanctions throughout its modern history,” he said. “Others have neither come to our assistance nor respected our declared neutrality. Global powers have even sided with aggressors. We have learned that we can only rely on our own people and our own indigenous capabilities. The Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to safeguard its own security, not to create insecurity for others. We want peace for all and seek no war or quarrel with anyone.”

    The U.S. response to Iran’s restraint throughout this crisis has been to keep sending destructive weapons to Israel, with which it has devastated Gaza, killed tens of thousands of women and children, bombed neighboring capitals, and beefed up the forces it would need to attack Iran.

    That includes a new order for 50 F-15EX long-range bombers, with 750 gallon fuel tanks for the long journey to Iran. That arms deal still has to pass the Senate, where Senator Bernie Sanders is leading the opposition.

    On the diplomatic front, the U.S. vetoed successive cease-fire resolutions in the UN Security Council and hijacked Qatar and Egypt’s cease-fire negotiations to provide diplomatic cover for unrestricted genocide.

    Military leaders in the United States and Israel appear to be arguing against war on Iran, as they have in the past. Even George W. Bush and Dick Cheney balked at launching another catastrophic war based on lies against Iran, after the CIA publicly admitted in its 2006 National Intelligence Estimate that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons.

    When Trump threatened to attack Iran, Tulsi Gabbard warned him that a U.S. war on Iran would be so catastrophic that it would finally, retroactively, make the war on Iraq look like the “cakewalk” the neocons had promised it would be.

    But neither U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin nor Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant can control their countries’ war policies, which are in the hands of political leaders with political agendas. Netanyahu has spent many years trying to draw the United States into a war with Iran, and has kept escalating the Gaza crisis for a year, at the cost of tens of thousands of innocent lives, with that goal clearly in mind.

    Biden has been out of his depth throughout this crisis, relying on political instincts from an era when acting tough and blindly supporting Israel were politically safe positions for American politicians. Secretary of State Antony Blinken rose to power through the National Security Council and as a Senate staffer, not as a diplomat, riding Biden’s coat-tails into a senior position where he is as out of his depth as his boss.

    Meanwhile, pro-Iran militia groups in Iraq warn that, if the U.S. joins in strikes on Iran, they will target U.S. bases in Iraq and the region.

    So we are careening toward a catastrophic war with Iran, with no U.S. diplomatic leadership and only Trump and Harris waiting in the wings. As Trita Parsi wrote in Responsible Statecraft, “If U.S. service members find themselves in the line of fire in an expanding Iran-Israel conflict, it will be a direct result of this administration’s failure to use U.S. leverage to pursue America’s most core security interest here — avoiding war.”

    The post Biden’s Israel Policy Has Led Us to the Brink of War on Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies.

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    Moment Iran Strike Interrupts Live Interview | Iran Attacks Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/02/moment-iran-strike-interrupts-live-interview-iran-attacks-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/02/moment-iran-strike-interrupts-live-interview-iran-attacks-israel/#respond Wed, 02 Oct 2024 10:15:28 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2402d93fed8e32ffc4b8bcb07131ed05
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    Israel Vows To Retaliate As Iran Launches Missile Attack | Iran Attacks Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/01/israel-vows-to-retaliate-as-iran-launches-missile-attack/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/01/israel-vows-to-retaliate-as-iran-launches-missile-attack/#respond Tue, 01 Oct 2024 22:12:19 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=e6a2730d3a5cd6476833a98b715b241c
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    Iranian Missiles Trigger Israeli Air Defenses | Iran Attacks Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/01/iranian-missiles-trigger-israeli-air-defenses-iran-attacks-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/10/01/iranian-missiles-trigger-israeli-air-defenses-iran-attacks-israel/#respond Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:37:06 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=f581eb506c2aa4fd168d91d3b49751d9
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    Vance Dossier Shows Not All Hacks Are Created Equal https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/vance-dossier-shows-not-all-hacks-are-created-equal/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/vance-dossier-shows-not-all-hacks-are-created-equal/#respond Mon, 30 Sep 2024 20:04:18 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9042305  

    Election Focus 2024Ken Klippenstein, an independent reporter operating on Substack and an investigative alum of the Intercept, announced (Substack, 9/26/24) that he had been kicked off Twitter (now rebranded as X). His crime, he explained, stemmed from posting the 271-page official dossier of Republican vice presidential candidate’s J.D. Vance’s campaign vulnerabilities; the US government alleges that the information was leaked through Iranian hacking. In other words, the dossier is a part of the “foreign meddling campaign” of “enemy states.”

    Klippenstein is not the first reporter to gain access to these papers (Popular Information, 9/9/24), but most of the reporting about this dossier has been on the intrigue revolving around Iranian hacking rather than the content itself (Daily Beast, 8/10/24; Politico, 8/10/24; Forbes, 8/11/24). Klippenstein decided it was time for the whole enchilada to see the light of day:

    As far as I can tell, it hasn’t been altered, but even if it was, its contents are publicly verifiable. I’ll let it speak for itself.

    “The terror regime in Iran loves the weakness and stupidity of Kamala Harris, and is terrified of the strength and resolve of President Donald J. Trump,” Steven Cheung, communications director for the Trump campaign, responded when I asked him about the hack.

    If the document had been hacked by some “anonymous”-like hacker group, the news media would be all over it. I’m just not a believer of the news media as an arm of the government, doing its work combating foreign influence. Nor should it be a gatekeeper of what the public should know.

    The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in a statement that alleged Iranian hacking (9/18/24) was “malicious cyber activity” and “the latest example of Iran’s multi-pronged approach…to stoke discord and undermine confidence in our electoral process.”

    Where’s the beef?

    Substack: Read the JD Vance Dossier

    Ken Klippenstein (Substack, 9/26/24) argued that the Vance dossier ” is clearly newsworthy, providing Republican Party and conservative doctrine insight into what the Trump campaign perceives to be Vance’s liabilities and weaknesses.”

    The Vance report isn’t as salacious as Vance’s false and bizarre comments about Haitians eating pets (NPR, 9/15/24), but it does show that he has taken positions that have fractured the right, such as aid for Ukraine; the report calls him one of the “chief obstructionists” to providing assistance to the country against Russia. It dedicates several pages to Vance’s history of criticizing Trump and the MAGA movement, suggesting that his place on the ticket could divide Trump’s voting base.

    On the other hand, it outlines many of his extreme right-wing stances that could alienate him with putative moderates. It says Vance “appears to have once called for slashing Social Security and Medicare,” and “is opposed to providing childcare assistance to low-income Americans.” He “supports placing restrictions on abortion access,” and states that “he does not support abortion exceptions in the case of rape.”

    And for any voter who values 7-day-a-week service, Vance “appears to support laws requiring businesses to close on Sundays.” It quotes him saying: “Close the Damn Businesses on Sunday. Commercial Freedom Will Suffer. Moral Behavior Will Not, and Our Society Will Be Much the Better for It.” That might not go over well with small business owners, and any worker who depends on their Sunday shifts.

    ‘Took a deep breath’

    WaPo: Why newsrooms haven’t published leaked Trump campaign documents

    The Washington Post (8/13/24) suggested that Vance dossier was different from Hillary Clinton’s hacked emails in 2016 because of “foreign state actors increasingly getting involved” in US elections.

    Are the findings in the Vance dossier the story of the century? Probably not, but it’s not nothing that the Trump campaign is aware its vice presidential candidate is loaded with liabilities. There are at least a few people who find that useful information.

    And the Washington Post (9/27/24) happily reported on private messages Vance sent to an anonymous individual who shared them with the newspaper that explained Vance’s flip-flopping from a Trump critic to a Trump lover. Are the private messages really more newsworthy than the dossier—or is the issue that the messages aren’t tainted by allegedly foreign fingerprints? Had that intercept of material involved an Iranian, would it have seen the light of day?

    In fact, the paper (8/13/24) explained that news organizations, including the Post, were reflecting on the foreign nature of the leak when deciding how deep they should report on the content they received:

    “This episode probably reflects that news organizations aren’t going to snap at any hack that comes in and is marked as ‘exclusive’ or ‘inside dope’ and publish it for the sake of publishing,” said Matt Murray, executive editor of the Post. Instead, “all of the news organizations in this case took a deep breath and paused, and thought about who was likely to be leaking the documents, what the motives of the hacker might have been, and whether this was truly newsworthy or not.”

    Double standards for leaks

    Politico: The most revealing Clinton campaign emails in WikiLeaks release

    Politico (10/7/16) quoted a Clinton spokesperson: “Striking how quickly concern about Russia’s masterminding of illegal hacks gave way to digging through fruits of hack.” This was immediately followed by: “Indeed, here are eight more e-mail exchanges that shed light on the methods and mindset of Clinton’s allies in Brooklyn and Washington.”

    There seems to be a disconnect, however, between ill-gotten information that impacts a Republican ticket and information that tarnishes a Democrat.

    Think back to 2016. When “WikiLeaks released a trove of emails apparently hacked from Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman email account, unleashing thousands of messages,” as Politico (10/7/16) reported, the outlet didn’t just merely report on the hack, it reported on the embarrassing substance of the documents. In 2024, by contrast, when Politico was given the Vance dossier, it wrote nothing about its contents, declaring that “questions surrounding the origins of the documents and how they came to our attention were more newsworthy than the material that was in those documents” (CNN, 8/13/24).

    The New York Times and Washington Post similarly found the Clinton leaks—which were believed at the time to have been given to WikiLeaks by Russia—far more newsworthy than the Vance dossier. The Times “published at least 199 articles about the stolen DNC and Clinton campaign emails between the first leak in June 2016 and Election Day,” Popular Information (9/9/24) noted.

    FAIR editor Jim Naureckas (11/24/09) has written about double standards in media, noting that information that comes to light through unethical or illegal means is played up if that information helps powerful politicians and corporations. Meanwhile, if such information obtained questionably is damaging, the media focus tends to be less on the substance, and more on whether the public should be hearing about such matters.

    For example, when a private citizen accidentally overheard a cell phone conversation between House Speaker John Boehner, former Speaker Newt Gingrich and other Republican congressmembers, and made a tape that showed Gingrich violating the terms of a ethics sanction against him, news coverage focused on the illegality of taping the conversation, not on the ethics violation the tape revealed (Washington Post, 1/14/97; New York Times, 1/15/97).

    But when climate change deniers hacked climate scientists’ email, that produced a front-page story in the New York Times (11/20/09) scrutinizing the correspondence for any inconsistencies that could be used to bolster the deniers’ arguments.

    When Cincinnati Enquirer reporter Michael Gallagher wrote a series of stories about the Chiquita fruit corporation, based in part on listening without authorization to company voicemails, the rest of the media were far more interested in Gallagher’s ethical and legal dilemmas (he was eventually sentenced to five years’ probation) rather than the bribery, fraud and worker abuse his reporting exposed.

    Meet the new boss

    Indpendent: Free speech ‘absolutist’ Elon Musk personally ordered the Twitter suspension of left-wing activist, report claims

    Musk personally ordered the suspension of the account of antifascist activist Curt Loder, the Independent (1/29/23) revealed, noting that “numerous other accounts of left-leaning activists and commentators have been suspended without warning.”

    There’s a certain degree of comedy in the hypocrisy of Klippenstein’s suspension. Since right-wing billionaire Elon Musk bought Twitter, he has claimed that his administration would end corporate censorship, but instead he’s implemented his own censorship agenda (Guardian, 1/15/24; Al Jazeera, 8/14/24).

    The Independent (1/29/23) reported that Musk “oversaw a campaign of suppression that targeted his critics upon his assumption of power at Twitter.” He

    personally directed the suspension of a left-leaning activist, Chad Loder, who became known across the platform for his work helping to identify participants in the January 6 attack.

    Al Jazeera (2/28/23) noted that “digital rights groups say social media giants,” including X, “have restricted [and] suspended the accounts of Palestinian journalists and activists.” Musk has likewise fulfilled censorship requests by the governments of Turkey (Ars Technica, 5/15/23) and India (Intercept, 1/24/23, 3/28/23) officials, and is generally more open to official requests to suppress speech than Twitter‘s previous owners (El Pais, 5/24/23; Washington Post, 9/25/24).

    Meanwhile, Musk’s critics contend, he’s allowed the social network to be a force multiplier for the right. “Elon Musk has increasingly used the social media platform as a megaphone to amplify his political views and, lately, those of right-wing figures he’s aligned with,” AP (8/13/24) reported. (Musk is vocal about his support for former President Donald Trump’s candidacy—New York Times, 7/18/24.)

    “Twitter Antisemitism ‘Skyrocketed’ Since Elon Musk Takeover—Jewish Groups,” blasted a Newsweek headline (4/25/23). Earlier this year, Mother Jones (3/13/24) reported that Musk “has been retweeting prominent race scientist adherents…spreading misinformation about racial minorities’ intelligence and physiology to his audience of 176.3 million followers.”

    ‘Chilling effect on speech’

    Suspension notice from X for Ken Klippenstein

    The message Ken Klippenstein got from X announcing he had been kicked off the platform.

    Now Musk’s Twitter is keeping certain information out of the public view—information that just happens to damage the presidential ticket he supports. With Klippenstein having been silenced on the network, anyone claiming X is a bastion of free speech at this point is either mendacious or simply deluded.

    Klippenstein (Substack, 9/26/24) explained that “X says that I’ve been suspended for ‘violating our rules against posting private information,’ citing a tweet linking to my story about the JD Vance dossier.” He added, though, that “I never published any private information on X.” Rather, “I linked to an article I wrote here, linking to a document of controversial provenance, one that I didn’t want to alter for that very reason.”

    The journalist (Substack, 9/27/24) claims that his account suspension, which he reports to be permanent, is political because he did not violate the network’s code about disclosing personal information, and even if he did, he should have been given the opportunity to correct his post to become unsuspended. “So it’s not about a violation of X’s policies,” he said. “What else would you call this but politically motivated?”

    Klippenstein is understandably concerned that he is now without a major social media promotional tool. “I no longer have access to the primary channel by which I disseminate primarily news (and shitposts of course) to the general public,” he said. “This chilling effect on speech is exactly why we published the Vance Dossier in its entirety.”


    This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting.

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    Arrogant US, Israel careening to war with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/arrogant-us-israel-careening-to-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/arrogant-us-israel-careening-to-war-with-iran/#respond Mon, 30 Sep 2024 19:57:17 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=0fb2210ce41892043e71c974bb0d9292
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Trita Parsi on Israel’s Nasrallah Assassination and Why Netanyahu Still Wants War with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/trita-parsi-on-israels-nasrallah-assassination-and-why-netanyahu-still-wants-war-with-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/trita-parsi-on-israels-nasrallah-assassination-and-why-netanyahu-still-wants-war-with-iran-2/#respond Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:33:22 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=afe19bf399c3f6b8ee3cc2a0dc0df374
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Trita Parsi on Israel’s Nasrallah Assassination and Why Netanyahu Still Wants War with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/trita-parsi-on-israels-nasrallah-assassination-and-why-netanyahu-still-wants-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/30/trita-parsi-on-israels-nasrallah-assassination-and-why-netanyahu-still-wants-war-with-iran/#respond Mon, 30 Sep 2024 12:38:42 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=199ef4034f64ce833487972cfdc1dfb7 Seg3 tritaandprotest

    As the Middle East gets ever closer to an all-out war, we speak with Iranian American analyst and author Trita Parsi about Iran’s response in the aftermath of Israel’s assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The powerful Lebanese militia is closely aligned with Iran and is part of the “Axis of Resistance” of forces in the Middle East opposed to Israel that also includes Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. “Israel has quite successfully cornered Iran,” says Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “At this point, if Iran does almost anything, it will risk triggering the larger regional war that Netanyahu wants and that the Iranians have tried to avoid.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Why is Trump blaming Iran for attempts on his life? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/29/why-is-trump-blaming-iran-for-attempts-on-his-life/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/29/why-is-trump-blaming-iran-for-attempts-on-his-life/#respond Sun, 29 Sep 2024 21:24:18 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=21e1ac8ca5fe9a91ce9fcd64eb525d83
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Bypassing Sanctions: Russia, Trade Routes and Outfoxing the West https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/10/bypassing-sanctions-russia-trade-routes-and-outfoxing-the-west/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/09/10/bypassing-sanctions-russia-trade-routes-and-outfoxing-the-west/#respond Tue, 10 Sep 2024 09:19:39 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=153448 Invention is the mother of necessity, and Russia’s response to largely Western-imposed economic and trade sanctions has shown the extent of that inventiveness.  While enduring attritive punishment in its Ukraine campaign, the war remains sustainable for the Kremlin.  The domestic economy has not collapsed, despite apocalyptic predictions to the contrary.  In terms of exports, Russia […]

    The post Bypassing Sanctions: Russia, Trade Routes and Outfoxing the West first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Invention is the mother of necessity, and Russia’s response to largely Western-imposed economic and trade sanctions has shown the extent of that inventiveness.  While enduring attritive punishment in its Ukraine campaign, the war remains sustainable for the Kremlin.  The domestic economy has not collapsed, despite apocalyptic predictions to the contrary.  In terms of exports, Russia is carving out new trade routes, a move that has been welcomed by notable powers in the Global South.

    One of the chief prosecutors of sanctions against Moscow was initially confident about the damage that would be caused by economic bludgeoning.  US President Joe Biden, in February 2022, insisted on the imposition of measures that would “impair [Russia’s] ability to compete in a high-tech 21st century economy.”  The Council of the European Union also explained that the move was intended to weaken Moscow’s “ability to finance the war and specifically target the political, military and economic elite responsible for the invasion [of Ukraine].”

    In all this, the European Union, the United States and other governments have ignored a salient historical lesson when resorting to supposedly punitive formulae intended to either deter Russia from pursuing a course of action or depriving it of necessary resources.  States subject to supposedly crushing economic measures can adapt, showing streaks of impressive resilience.  The response from Japan, Germany and Italy during the 1930s in the face of sanctions imposed by the League of Nations provide irrefutable proof of that proposition.  All, to a certain extent, pursued what came to be known as Blockadefestigkeit, or blockade resilience.  With bitter irony, the targeted powers also felt emboldened to pursue even more aggressive measures to subvert the restraints placed upon them.

    By the end of 2022, Russia had become China’s second biggest supplier of Russian crude oil.  India has also been particularly hungry for Russian oil.  Producing only 10% of domestic supply, Russia contributed 34% of the rest of Indian oil consumption in 2023.

    Trade routes are also being pursued with greater vigour than ever.  This year, progress was made between Russia and China on a North Sea Route, which straddles the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, running from Murmansk on the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait and the Far East.  The agreement between Russia’s state nuclear agency Rosatom and China’s Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co Ltd envisages the joint design and creation of Arctic-class container vessels to cope with the punishing conditions throughout the year.  Rosatom’s special representative for Arctic development, Vladimir Panov, confidently declared that up to 3 million tonnes of transit cargo would flow along the NSR in 2024.

    While that agreement will operate to Russia’s frozen north, another transport route has also received a boosting tonic.  Of late, Moscow and New Delhi have been making progress on the 7,200-kilometre International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which will run from St. Petersburg in northwestern Russia to ports in southern Iran for onward movement to Mumbai.  While the agreement between Russia, Iran and India for such a multimodal corridor dates back to September 2000, the advent of sanctions imposed in the aftermath of the Ukraine War propelled Moscow to seek succour in the export markets of the Middle East and Asia.

    As staff writers at Nikkei point out, the shipping route will not only bypass Europe but be “less than half as long as the current standard path through the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal.”  One calculation suggests that the time needed to transport cargo to Moscow from Mumbai prior to the initiation of the corridor was between 40 and 60 days.  As things stand, the transit time has been shaved to 25-30 days, with transportation costs falling by 30%.

    Much progress has been made on the western route, which involves the use of Azerbaijan’s rail and road facilities.  In March, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Digital Development and Transport revealed that rail freight grew by approximately 30% in 2023.  Road freight rose to 1.3 million tonnes, an increase of 35%.  The ministry anticipates the amount of tonnage in terms of freight traffic to rise to 30 million per year.  In June this year, the Rasht-Caspian Sea link connecting the Persian Gulf with the Caspian Sea via rail was opened in the presence of Russian, Iranian and Azerbaijani dignitaries.

    A further factor that adds worth to the corridor is the increasingly fraught nature of freight traffic from Europe to Asia via the Suez Canal.  Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have been harrying vessels in the Red Sea, a response to Israel’s ferocious campaign in Gaza.  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk suggested back in January that the “North-South [corridor] will gain global significance” given the crisis in the Red Sea.

    Despite the frightful losses being endured in the Russia-Ukraine war, it is clear, at least when it comes to using economic and financial weapons, that Moscow has prevailed.  It has outfoxed its opponents, and, along the way, sought to redraw global trade routes that will furnish it with even greater armour from future economic shocks.  Other countries less keen to seek a moral stake in the Ukraine conflict than pursue their own trade interests, have been most enthusiastic.

    The post Bypassing Sanctions: Russia, Trade Routes and Outfoxing the West first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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    The DNC Fiddles While the World Burns https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/21/the-dnc-fiddles-while-the-world-burns/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/21/the-dnc-fiddles-while-the-world-burns/#respond Wed, 21 Aug 2024 18:38:07 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=153039 DNC delegates unfurl banner during Biden’s speech at the DNC. Photo credit: Esam Boraey An Orwellian disconnect haunts the 2024 Democratic National Convention. In the isolation of the convention hall, shielded from the outside world behind thousands of armed police, few of the delegates seem to realize that their country is on the brink of direct […]

    The post The DNC Fiddles While the World Burns first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    DNC delegates unfurl banner during Biden’s speech at the DNC. Photo credit: Esam Boraey

    An Orwellian disconnect haunts the 2024 Democratic National Convention. In the isolation of the convention hall, shielded from the outside world behind thousands of armed police, few of the delegates seem to realize that their country is on the brink of direct involvement in major wars with Russia and Iran, either of which could escalate into World War III.

    Inside the hall, the mass slaughter in the Middle East and Ukraine are treated only as troublesome “issues,” which “the greatest military in the history of the world” can surely deal with. Delegates who unfurled a banner that read “Stop Arming Israel” during Biden’s speech on Monday night were quickly accosted by DNC officials, who instructed other delegates to use “We ❤ Joe” signs to hide the banner from view.

    In the real world, the most explosive flashpoint right now is the Middle East, where U.S. weapons and Israeli troops are slaughtering tens of thousands of Palestinians, mostly children and families, at the bidding of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. And yet, in July, Democrats and Republicans leapt to their feet in 23 standing ovations to applaud Netanyahu’s warmongering speech to a joint session of Congress.

    In the week before the DNC started, the Biden administration announced its approval for the sale of $20 billion in weapons to Israel, which would lock the US into a relationship with the Israeli military for years to come.

    Netanyahu’s determination to keep killing without restraint in Gaza, and Biden and Congress’s willingness to keep supplying him with weapons to do so, always risked exploding into a wider war, but the crisis has reached a new climax. Since Israel has failed to kill or expel the Palestinians from Gaza, it is now trying to draw the United States into a war with Iran, a war to degrade Israel’s enemies and restore the illusion of military superiority that it has squandered in Gaza.

    To achieve its goal of triggering a wider war, Israel assassinated Fuad Shukr, a Hezbollah commander, in Beirut, and Hamas’s political leader and chief ceasefire negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Iran has vowed to respond militarily to the assassinations, but Iran’s leaders are in a difficult position. They do not want a war with Israel and the United States, and they have acted with restraint throughout the massacre in Gaza. But failing to respond strongly to these assassinations would encourage Israel to conduct further attacks on Iran and its allies.
    ‘
    The assassinations in Beirut and Tehran were clearly designed to elicit a response from Iran and Hezbollah that would draw the U.S. into the war. Could Iran find a way to strike Israel that would not provoke a U.S. response? Or, if Iran’s leaders believe that is impossible, will they decide that this is the moment to actually fight a seemingly unavoidable war with the U.S. and Israel?

    This is an incredibly dangerous moment, but a ceasefire in Gaza would resolve the crisis. The U.S. has dispatched CIA Director William Burns, the only professional diplomat in Biden’s cabinet, to the Middle East for renewed ceasefire talks, and Iran is waiting to see the result of the talks before responding to the assassinations.

    Burns is working with Qatari and Egyptian officials to come up with a revised ceasefire proposal that Israel and Hamas can both agree to. But Israel has always rejected any proposal for more than a temporary pause in its assault on Gaza, while Hamas will only agree to a real, permanent ceasefire. Could Biden have sent Burns just to stall, so that a new war wouldn’t spoil the Dems’ party in Chicago?

    The United States has always had the option of halting weapons shipments to Israel to force it to agree to a permanent ceasefire. But it has refused to use that leverage, except for the suspension of a single shipment of 2,000 lb bombs in May, after it had already sent Israel 14,000 of those horrific weapons, which it uses to systematically smash living children and families into unidentifiable pieces of flesh and bone.

    Meanwhile the war with Russia has also taken a new and dangerous turn, with Ukraine invading Russia’s Kursk region. Some analysts believe this is only a diversion before an even riskier Ukrainian assault on the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukraine’s leaders see the writing on the wall, and are increasingly ready to take any risk to improve their negotiating position before they are forced to sue for peace.

    But Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia, while applauded by much of the west, has actually made negotiations less likely. In fact, talks between Russia and Ukraine on energy issues were supposed to start in the coming weeks. The idea was that each side would agree not to target the other’s energy infrastructure, with the hope that this could lead to more comprehensive talks. But after Ukraine’s invasion toward Kursk, the Russians pulled out of what would have been the first direct talks since the early weeks of the Russian invasion.

    President Zelenskyy remains in power three months after his term of office expired, and he is a great admirer of Israel. Will he take a page from Netanyahu’s playbook and do something so provocative that it will draw U.S. and NATO forces into the potentially nuclear war with Russia that Biden has promised to avoid?

    A 2023 U.S. Army War College study found that even a non-nuclear war with Russia could result in as many U.S. casualties every two weeks as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq did in two decades, and it concluded that such a war would require a return to conscription in the United States.

    While Gaza and Eastern Ukraine burn in firestorms of American and Russian bombs and missiles, and the war in Sudan rages on unchecked, the whole planet is rocketing toward catastrophic temperature increases, ecosystem breakdown and mass extinctions. But the delegates in Chicago are in la-la land about U.S. responsibility for that crisis too.

    Under the slick climate plan Obama sold to the world in Copenhagen and Paris, Americans’ per capita CO2 emissions are still double those of our Chinese, British and European neighbors, while U.S. oil and gas production have soared to all-time record highs.

    The combined dangers of nuclear war and climate catastrophe have pushed the hands of the Doomsday Clock all the way to 90 seconds to midnight. But the leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties are in the pockets of the fossil fuel industry and the military-industrial complex. Behind the election-year focus on what the two parties disagree about, the corrupt policies they both agree on are the most dangerous of all.

    President Biden recently claimed that he is “running the world.” No oligarchic American politician will confess to “running the world” to the brink of nuclear war and mass extinction, but tens of thousands of Americans marching in the streets of Chicago and millions more Americans who support them understand that that is what Biden, Trump and their cronies are doing.

    The people inside the convention hall should shake themselves out of their complacency and start listening to the people in the streets. Therein lies the real hope, maybe the only hope, for America’s future.

    The post The DNC Fiddles While the World Burns first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies.

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    Iran: Key to World Peace https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/20/iran-key-to-world-peace/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/20/iran-key-to-world-peace/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 15:42:16 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=153018 From what is read and what is said, Iran is the major sponsor of international terrorism — creating turmoil, preventing peace, and wanting to dominate the Middle East. One problem with the accepted scenario is that the facts do not coincide with the assumptions. Except for revenging terrorist attacks by Iranian dissidents and Israeli intelligence […]

    The post Iran: Key to World Peace first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    From what is read and what is said, Iran is the major sponsor of international terrorism — creating turmoil, preventing peace, and wanting to dominate the Middle East. One problem with the accepted scenario is that the facts do not coincide with the assumptions.

    Except for revenging terrorist attacks by Iranian dissidents and Israeli intelligence and military services, the Islamic Republic has not harmed anybody in the Western nations. In the last 200 years, Iran has fought only one war ─ a defensive battle against aggressor Iraq. It has assisted friendly nations in their conflicts with other nations, similar to United States actions, but on a smaller scale. The demise of Ayatollah Khomeini established a refreshed Islamic Republic that promoted cordial relations with nations who were willing to return the cordiality. Iran has not sought hegemony, economic advantage, or extension of its influence to others than those who desire the influence.

    Do a somersault and find the real Iran. The real Iran has tried to cooperate with the United States and other nations and bring peace and stability to the Middle East.

    This does not excuse Iran’s semi-autocratic regime and human rights violations, no more than they can be excused in nations with whom the United States has friendly relations — Israel, Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Mexico, Tajikistan, and others. For American diplomats, the concept of “cannot excuse” is an excuse for not engaging in diplomacy and resolving problems with Iran. The results have been disasters — harm to American society, harm to the American people, and an unending voyage to calamities.

    Designating Iran as the greatest menace to peace assumes there is peace in the Middle East. Is there peace and has there been peace since the words Middle East entered the lexicon? The conflagrations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria would have existed without the presence of the Islamic Republic; the former two wars occurred due to United States’ invasions in those nations. Is the Islamic Republic responsible for Israel’s continuous wars with its neighbors and for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the Emirates battles with their own citizens and quarrels they had with Yemen and Gaddafi’s Libya. The Islamic Republic and its well-educated and alert citizens have not initiated a war against another nation and their restraint holds the key to Middle East peace. The United States refusal to allow the key to unlock the cages that maintain the doves of peace is one of the great tragedies of the century. This was shown in the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

    Unlike America, Iran had special connections and interests in Afghanistan. After the Sept. 11 attacks, U.S. officials responsible for preparing the war in Afghanistan, solicited help to unseat the Taliban and establish a stable government in Kabul. Iran had organized the resistance by the Northern Alliance and provided the Alliance arms and funding, which helped topple the Taliban regime.  In an interview with Iranian Press Service (IPS), Flynt Leverett, senior director for Middle East affairs in the National Security Council (NSC), said, “The Iranians had real contacts with important players in Afghanistan and were prepared to use their influence in constructive ways in coordination with the United States.”

    Because the Northern Alliance played a significant role in driving the Taliban out of Kabul in November 2001, they demanded 60 percent of the portfolios in an interim government and blocked agreement with other opposition groups. According to the U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Dobbins, Iran played a “decisive role” in persuading the Northern Alliance delegation to compromise its demands.

    Dobbins, J. (2009). “Negotiating with Iran: Reflections from Personal Experience,” The Washington Quarterly, 33(1), 149–162.

    The Northern Alliance delegate, Younis Qanooni, on instructions from Kabul, was insisting that his faction not only retain the three most important ministries—defense, foreign affairs, and interior—but also hold three-fourths of the total. These demands were unacceptable to the other three Afghan factions represented in Bonn. Unless the Northern Alliance demand could be significantly reduced, there was no way the resultant government could be portrayed as broadly based and representative.

    Finally Iranian representative, Javad Zarif, stood up, and signaled Qanooni to join him in the corner of the room. They spoke in whispers for no more than a minute. Qanooni then returned to the table and offered to give up two ministries. He also agreed to create three new ones that could be awarded to other factions. We had a deal. For the following six months, Afghanistan would be governed by an interim administration composed of 29 department heads plus a chairman. Sixteen of these posts would go to the Northern Alliance, just slightly more than half.

    Dobbins worked with Iranian negotiators in Bonn and related that at a donors conference in Tokyo, in January, 2002, Iran pledged $540 million in assistance to Afghanistan.

    Dobbins writes:

    Emerging from a larger gathering in Tokyo, one of the Iranian representatives took me aside to reaffirm his government’s desire to continue to cooperate on Afghanistan. I agreed that this would be desirable, but warned that Iranian behavior in other areas represented an obstacle to cooperation. Furthermore, I cautioned him by saying that my brief only extends to Afghanistan. He replied by saying, “We know that. We would like to work on these other issues with the appropriate people in your government.”

    On returning to Washington, O’Neill and I reported these conversations, to then-National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice and cabinet level colleagues, and to the Middle Eastern Bureau at the Department of State (DOS). No one evinced any interest. The Iranians received no private reply. Instead, they received a very public answer. One week later, in his State of the Union address, President George W. Bush named Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, an “axis of evil.” How arch-enemies Iran and Iraq could form any axis, evil or otherwise, was never explained.

    How would the Afghanistan fiasco have played out if the American governments cooperated with the Iranian governments? No analysis can supply a definite and credible answer; clues are available.

    The result of 20 years of U.S. occupation and battle in Afghanistan resulted in nearly 111,000 civilians killed or injured, more than 64,100 national military and police killed, about 2500 American soldiers killed and 20,660 injured in action, and $1 trillion spent by the U.S. in all phases of a conflict that ended with the Taliban return to power. The only accomplishment of the twenty years of strife had Osama bin Laden leave the isolated, uncomfortable, and rugged mountain caves in Tora Bora for a comfortable and well-equipped walled compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a gift from Pakistan intelligence. Note that the al-Qaeda leader did not flee to U.S. adversary, Iran; he joined his family in U.S. friendly, Pakistan. The 20-year U.S. occupation of Afghanistan was a catastrophe and anything is better than a catastrophe.

    More than any other nation Iran had justifiable reasons for wanting a stable, friendly, and economically secure government in Afghanistan.

    • Iran had previous problems with the Taliban and did not want to repeat them.
    • Terrorists enter Iran from Afghanistan and cause havoc to the Islamic Republic.
    • Iran and the Afghan government created a free trading zone on their border and Iran wanted to continue to continue to exploit the arrangement.
    • In 2017, Iran surpassed Pakistan as Afghanistan’s top trade partner and, in 2019, Iranian exports reached $1.24 billion.
    • Iran had funded construction of the 90-mile (140 kilometer) line from Khaf in northeastern Iran to Ghoryan in western Afghanistan.
    • Iran and Afghanistan had several mutual problems that needed, and still need, close contact to resolve. Among them are water distribution, poppy production in Afghanistan, export of opium to Iran, and refugee flow to Iran. “Between 1979 and 2014, Iran claims to have lost some 4,000 security forces fighting heavily armed drug traffickers along its eastern border. In 2019, Iran seized more heroin and illicit morphine than any other country, according to U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime.”
    • Iran shared ethnic, linguistic and religious links with millions of Afghan Shi’a and was interested in their protection.

    More than any other nation, Iran had assets to assist in achieving a stable, friendly, peaceful, and economically secure government in Afghanistan.

    • Iran was a large source of foreign direct investment, and provided millions of dollars for Afghanistan’s western provinces to build roads, electrical grids, schools, and health clinics.
    • Afghanistan found Iran could assist Afghanistan in trade. “On April 2016, Iran, Afghanistan and India signed an agreement to develop the Chabahar port in southeastern Iran as a trading hub for all three nations.  Afghan goods would be transported to the Iranian port by rail, and then be shipped to India by sea. The first phase of the port was inaugurated in 2017.”
    • Iran had knowledge of Taliban personnel, arrangements, and activities. It had contacts and informants who could provide intelligence.
    • Not sure if they would acquiesce, but the Iranians could accommodate bases from which to attack the Taliban and to which fighters could retreat.

    The U.S. State Department learned nothing from its disjointed and catastrophic actions in Afghanistan. It repeated the same worthless and aggressive policy in its invasion of Iraq.

    After supporting Iraq against Iran in the 1980s Iraq-Iran war, the U.S. declared war in 1991 against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and performed a first in the history of foreign policy ─ helping a nation that wars against a nation that is not doing any harm to you, and then attacking the nation that it helped do the harm to the nation that was not harming you. The U.S. continued with sanctions against the nation it previously supported, Iraq, and then, in 2003, engaged it in another war, finally ending up with the nation it initially wanted to contain, Iran, essentially winning the war without firing another shot, and gaining influence in Iraq; another example of a U.S. policy toward Iran that backfired. Foreign policy at its finest.

    While stumbling and fumbling its way into destroying Iraq, the U.S. managed to have al-Qaeda (remember them, the guys that America invaded Afghanistan to defeat) reconstitute itself in Iraq. This renewed al-Qaeda, “organized a wave of attacks, often suicide bombings, that targeted security forces, government institutions, and Iraqi civilians.” The American military was forced to use Iraq’s notorious militias, known as “Awakening Councils,” to expel the al-Qaeda organization; a short-lived victory that led to the formation of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS).

    A statement by the ever-unaware President Trump, in a January 8, 2020 speech, argued the US had been responsible for defeating ISIS and the Islamic Republic should realize that it is in their benefit to work with the United States in making sure ISIS remained defeated. The US spent years and billions of dollars in training an Iraqi army that fled Mosul and left it to a small contingent of ISIS forces. Showing no will and expertise to fight, Iraq’s debilitated military permitted ISIS to rapidly expand and conquer Tikrit and other cities. Events energized Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, which, with cooperation from Iran and personal assistance from Major General Qasem Soleimani, was able to retake Tikrit and Ramadi, push ISIS out of Fallujah, and eventually play a leading role in ISIS’ defeat in Mosul. The U.S. honored Soleimani’s efforts by assassinating him ─ one of the most vicious crimes in history ─ and commended Iran by continually sanctioning it. No good deed goes unpunished.

    As in Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic assisted in the re-building of Iraq. As far back as 2012, The Guardian reported that “Iran is one of Iraq’s most important regional economic partners, with an annual trade volume between the two sides standing at $8bn to $10b.” The U.S. confused competitive advantage with diabolical meddling and regarded Iran as a troubling factor in the Fertile Crescent, even though the inhabitants of Mesopotamia considered the United States as the troublemaker in the region. Iran had leverage in Iraq that could not be ignored nor easily combated.

    Why is the Islamic Republic, sanctioned, vilified, and isolated? One clue is that almost all references to Iran in the U.S. media succeed with the phrase, “leading state sponsor of terrorism.” The phrase is stuck onto the word Iran as if by Velcro and all the words are one word. How does this coincidental commonality occur?

    It occurs because the Zionist press distributes most reports on Iran to the American media. Israel has used U.S. support to subdue Israel’s adversaries — Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and Iraq —and  has turned its national army to coerce Iran, the last man standing, into battle. It has turned its worldwide army of thought controllers to vilify Iran and entice Western powers to remove the Islamic member of the “axis of evil” from the map. Blind the world to reality.

    Substitute the nation Israel for the nation Iran in each of the salient accusations made against Iran and the accusations become correct. Nowhere do the facts and historical narrative demonstrate that Iran has disrupted peace and stability by any of the combining factors. Israel is present in all the factors. During the 2016 presidential campaign, contender Donald Trump said, “Many nations, including allies, ripped off the US.” Doesn’t Donald Trump, in his support for apartheid Israel, know that he verified his statement? Bet on the wrong horse and you are sure to lose.

    The following table summarizes the factors and clarifies the issues.

    Iran ─ Key to World Peace

    Resolving Iran’s oppression of its people and Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians are separate topics and cannot be resolved together. Permitting Israel to subdue Iran might dispatch the Ayatollahs, but enables the genocide of the Palestinian people, and allows Israel additional opportunities of expansion and continuous threats to other nations. The Zionist influence on Western governments and media will be enhanced.

    Separating Iran’s internal oppression from its external policies allows using a challenging force to overcome an unchallenged destructive power. Which is more important and expedient — continually scolding and sanctioning Iran for its oppressive behavior or energizing an Iran that might repel the Israel juggernaut and push Israelis to realize they can no longer survive as a criminal enterprise and can become a “shining light on the Mediterranean,” a part of a truly democratic and bi-national state?

    Analysis shows Iran has not displayed characteristics of a “major sponsor of international terrorism — creating turmoil, preventing peace, and wanting to dominate the Middle East.” The only international directives against Iran are sanctions and human rights violations. Israel displays all the characteristics falsely attributed to Iran plus recipient of tens of Resolutions and decisions by International agencies that accuse Israel and its leaders of aspects of genocide, war crimes, apartheid, illegal occupation, and crimes against humanity. The U.S. fought World War II to defeat Nazism, then allows its traits to arise again and gives support to its features ─ an enormous betrayal to the American public.

    The defeated Nazi German state evolved into the German Democratic Republic. The defeated Israeli state will evolve into the Middle East Democratic Republic. The world will breathe easier and less concerned that events can spiral out of control and can usher in Armageddon. The multitude of arrogant Jewish organizations that served a foreign state will disappear. Jews will not display divided loyalty and will not arouse suspicion. They will no longer pose as victims who demand special attention but will express themselves as support for those who need attention. Washington DC will no longer be referenced as “occupied Zionist territory.”

    Preventing Iran’s defeat does not strengthen Iran’s image or its government’s oppressive tactics. Just the opposite. With the threat of Israel removed, Hezbollah, Palestinians, and Assad’s Syria will have less need to be reliant on Tehran and will turn move favorably to the United States.

    Counterfeit U.S. policies have led to continuous warfare in the Middle East, unnecessary sacrifice of U.S. lives, economic disturbances, and waste of taxpayer money. In the cauldron of corruption and autocracies, which pits Sunni against Shi’a, Gulf States and Saudi Arabia against Iran, religious extremists against moderates, and Israel against all, the United States makes its choice of allies. Whom does Washington support — those who are the most repressive, most corrupt, most militaristic, most prone to cause Middle East instability — Israel, cited by Osama bin Laden as a principal reason for Al Qaeda terrorism and Saudi Arabia, a principal supplier of al-Qaeda terrorists. A less resentful outlook on Iran yields a revised perspective of a violent, unstable, and disturbed Middle East. Israel would finally be recognized as the major cause of chaos to the region.

    If Israel claims God permits it to ignore international law, murder whomever at will, and threaten all civilization, then even the devil should be approached to replace Israel with a law-abiding nation. Iran, similar to a multitude of nations, might be a problem; Israel is THE PROBLEM.

    The post Iran: Key to World Peace first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Something’s Coming, We Don’t Know What It Is But It Is Going To Be Bad https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/16/somethings-coming-we-dont-know-what-it-is-but-it-is-going-to-be-bad/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/16/somethings-coming-we-dont-know-what-it-is-but-it-is-going-to-be-bad/#respond Fri, 16 Aug 2024 01:04:27 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=152816 With a click, with a shock Phone’ll jingle, door’ll knock, open the latch Something’s coming, don’t know when but it’s soon . . . — “Something’s Coming,” West Side Story, lyrics by S. Sondheim, music by L. Bernstein. Shock should not be the word, but when World War III breaks fully loose many who are […]

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    With a click, with a shock
    Phone’ll jingle, door’ll knock, open the latch
    Something’s coming, don’t know when but it’s soon . . .

    — “Something’s Coming,” West Side Story, lyrics by S. Sondheim, music by L. Bernstein.

    Shock should not be the word, but when World War III breaks fully loose many who are now sleeping will be shocked.  The war has already started, but its full fury and devastation are just around the corner.  When it does, Tony’s singular fate in West Side Story will be the fate of untold millions.

    It is a Greek tragedy brought on by the terrible hubris of the United States, its NATO accomplices, and the genocidal state of Israel and the Zionist terrorists who run it.

    Tony felt a miracle was due, but it didn’t come true for him except to briefly love Maria and then get killed as result of a false report, and only a miracle will now save the world from the cataclysm that is on the way, whether it is initiated by intent, a false report, an accident, or the game of nuclear chicken played once too often.

    Let us hope but not be naïve.  The signs all point in one direction.  The gun on the wall in the first act of this tragic play is primed to go off in the final one.  Every effort to avoid this terrible fate by seeking peace and not war has been rejected by the U.S. and its equally insane allies.  Every so-called red line laid down by Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinians, and their allies has been violated with impunity and blatant arrogance.  But impunity has its limits and the dark Furies of vengeance will have their day.

    “It is the dead, not the living,” said Antigone, “who make the longest demands.”  Their ghostly voices cry out to be avenged.

    I wish I were not compelled by conscience to write this, but it seems clearly evident to me that we stand on the edge of an abyss.  The fate of the world rests in the hands of leaders who are clearly psychotic and who harbor death wishes.  It’s not terribly complex.  Netanyahu and Biden are two of them.  Yes, like other mass killers, I think they love their children and give their dog biscuits to eat.  But yes, they also are so corrupted in their souls that they relish war and the sense of false power and prestige it brings them.  They gladly kill other people’s children.  They can defend themselves many times over, offer all kinds of excuses, but the facts speak otherwise.  This is hard for regular people to accept.

    The great American writer who lived in exile in France for so many years and who was born 100 years ago this month, James Baldwin, wrote an essay – “The Creative Process” – in which he addressed the issue of how becoming a normal member of society dulls one to the shadow side of personal and social truths.  He wrote:

    And, in the same way that to become a social human being one modifies and suppresses and, ultimately, without great courage, lies to oneself about all one’s interior, uncharted chaos, so have we, as a nation, modified or suppressed and lied about all the darker forces in our history.

    And lie and suppress we still do today.

    Imagine, if you will, that Mexico has invaded Texas with the full support of the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian governments.  Their weapons are supplied by these countries and their drone and missile attacks on the U.S. are coordinated by Russian technology.  The Seven Mile Bridge in Florida has been attacked.  The U.S. Mexican border is dotted with Russian troops on bases with nuclear missiles aimed at U.S. cities.

    It’s not hard to do.  That is a small analogy to what the U.S./NATO is doing to Russia.

    Do you think the United States would not respond with great force?

    Do you think it would not feel threatened with nuclear annihilation?

    How do you think it would respond?

    The U.S/NATO war against Russia via Ukraine is accelerating by the day.  The current Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk region has upped the ante dramatically.  After denying it knew in advance of this Ukrainian invasion of Russia, the demented U.S. President Joseph Biden said the other day when asked about the fighting in Kursk, “I’ve spoken with my staff on a regular basis probably every four or five hours for the last six or eight days. And it’s — it’s creating a real dilemma for Putin.  And we’ve been in direct contact — constant contact with — with the Ukrainians.”  Do you think Kamala Harris was kept in the dark?

    Now how do you think the Russians are going to respond?  How many red lines will they allow the U.S. to cross without massive retaliation?  And what kind of retaliation?

    Switch then to the Middle East where the Iranians and their allies are preparing to retaliate to Israel’s attacks on their soil. No one knows when but it seems soon.  Something is coming and it won’t be pretty.  Will it then ignite a massive war in the region with the U.S. and Israel pitted against the region?  Will nuclear weapons be used?  Will the wars in Ukraine/Russia and the Middle East join into what will be called WW III?

    While the U.S. continues to massively arm Israel, Russian is arming its ally Iran and likely training them in the use of those weapons as the U.S. is doing in Ukraine. The stage is set.  We enter the final act.

    Natanyahu wants and needs war to survive.  So he thinks.  Psychotic killers always do.

    The signs all point in one direction.  No one should be shocked if the worst comes to pass.

    “Phone’ll jingle, door’ll knock, open the latch.”

    If you have time.

    The post Something’s Coming, We Don’t Know What It Is But It Is Going To Be Bad first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Edward Curtin.

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    Middle East Braces as Iran & Hezbollah Vow Retaliation for Israeli Assassinations https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/13/middle-east-braces-as-iran-hezbollah-vow-retaliation-for-israeli-assassinations-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/13/middle-east-braces-as-iran-hezbollah-vow-retaliation-for-israeli-assassinations-2/#respond Tue, 13 Aug 2024 14:20:39 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=25bad8a3c06ba059952a419a673851e2
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Middle East Braces as Iran & Hezbollah Vow Retaliation for Israeli Assassinations https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/13/middle-east-braces-as-iran-hezbollah-vow-retaliation-for-israeli-assassinations/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/13/middle-east-braces-as-iran-hezbollah-vow-retaliation-for-israeli-assassinations/#respond Tue, 13 Aug 2024 12:14:54 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=00f34fac90cf7d6c442e274d27466347 Seg1 middle east

    Iran has rejected a call by France, Germany and the United Kingdom demanding it refrain from any retaliatory attacks over the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Tensions also remain high on Israel’s northern border as Lebanon-based Hezbollah vows to respond to the Israeli assassination of its senior military commander Fuad Shukr. On Friday, Israel continued its assassination campaign by killing a Hamas commander in the Lebanese city of Sidon. “It’s a very, very tense time here in Beirut, and in Lebanon more generally,” says Karim Makdisi, a professor of international politics at the American University of Beirut. He says the cycle of escalation across the region has a clear cause, which is Israel’s war on Gaza backed by the United States, and that ending the violence there will bring calm elsewhere. “Get a ceasefire, everything stops.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Israel Crosses All Red Lines for War with Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/israel-crosses-all-red-lines-for-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/israel-crosses-all-red-lines-for-war-with-iran/#respond Mon, 12 Aug 2024 21:48:40 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=90851de3acee48c696095d289abe3ae7
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    More than a Killing of Hamas Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/more-than-a-killing-of-hamas-political-leader-ismail-haniyeh/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/more-than-a-killing-of-hamas-political-leader-ismail-haniyeh/#respond Mon, 12 Aug 2024 14:51:08 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=152711 69% of Israelis support assassinations even if cease-fire in Gaza delayed: Poll, Anadolu Agency In post-World War II, except for assassins from Israel, have military and intelligence agencies assassinated political leaders of another nation? Have any of these assassinations occurred in a nation that is not the native nation of the assassinated? Two come to […]

    The post More than a Killing of Hamas Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    69% of Israelis support assassinations even if cease-fire in Gaza delayed: Poll, Anadolu Agency

    In post-World War II, except for assassins from Israel, have military and intelligence agencies assassinated political leaders of another nation? Have any of these assassinations occurred in a nation that is not the native nation of the assassinated? Two come to mind.

    On March 1, 2020, the Trump government assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, and, on November 28, 1971, four Black September gunmen killed Wasfi Tal, Prime Minister of Jordan, in the lobby of the Sheraton Cairo Hotel in Egypt? U.S. special forces dispatched Osama bin-Laden in Pakistan, but bin-Laden was not a leader of a country. Established nations have a silent agreement of not assassinating another nation’s leaders and consider it an ugly behavior.

    There have been assassinations during military coups, in which the United States participated in the takeovers, several attempts to kill Fidel Castro by U.S. agencies, assassinations of dissidents on foreign soil by Russian, Turkish, and Iranian intelligence, and unproven charges of American complicity in assassinations of foreign leaders. Israel’s widespread physical and character assassinations of foreign leaders and civilians are unique; the numbers are staggering, and the world’s inattention to the numbers is chilling.

    Foreign civilians murdered by Israel in foreign nations

    Israel’s murders of innocents, who are doing daily tasks to earn bread and assist their countries, are mafia style “hits,” criminal activities to protect criminal activities. They are performed as routine matters, with no regard to the lives of others, as if those who are not Israelis are insignificant human beings.

    September 11, 1962, Heinz Krug, a West German rocket scientist working for Egypt’s missile program, was abducted and his body never found. From Operation Damocles:

    The Mossad set up a sting involving a former SS officer and war hero named Otto Skorzeny who Krug was led to believe would help keep him and the other scientists safe. Instead, Skorzeny killed Krug and a team of Israeli agents poured acid on his body and buried his remains in the forest outside Munich. The leader of the Mossad team was Yitzhak Shamir, the head of the special operations unit and later prime minister.

    In November, 1962, two parcel bombs arrived at the office of the missile project’s director, Wolfgang Pilz, maiming his secretary and killing five Egyptian workers.

    In February 1963, another scientist, Hans Kleinwachter, escaped an ambush in Switzerland. That April, two Mossad agents in Basel threatened to kill the project manager Paul Goerke and his daughter. A pistol was fired at a West German professor who was researching electronics for Egypt in the town of Lörrach.

    Note the use of a famous Nazi, Otto Skorzeny, in one of the escapades.

    June 13, 1980, Yehia El-Mashad, Egyptian nuclear scientist was murdered in his room at the Méridien Hotel in Paris.

    September 1981, José Alberto Albano do Amarante, a Brazilian Air Force lieutenant colonel, was  assassinated by the Israeli intelligence service to prevent Brazil from becoming a nuclear nation.

    July 14, 1989,  Said S. Bedair, Egyptian scientist in microwave engineering and a colonel in the Egyptian army fell to his death from the balcony of his brother’s apartment in Alexandria, Egypt. His veins were found cut and a gas leak was detected in the apartment. Egyptians claim that the Mossad assassinated him in a way that appeared a suicide.

    March 20, 1990,  Gerald Bull, Canadian engineer and designer of the Project Babylon “supergun” for Saddam Hussein’s government, was shot at the door to his apartment in Brussels, Belgium. Attributed to Mossad by several sources.

    Murdered Iranian Scientists and family members

    Mossad has been accused of assassinating Masoud Alimohammadi, Ardeshir Hosseinpour, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad, and Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan; scientists involved in the Iranian nuclear and missile programs. In some of the attacks other innocent civilians were killed. Israel is also suspected of being behind the attempted assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Fereydoon Abbasi. Meir Dagan, who served as Director of Mossad from 2002 until 2009, while not taking credit for the assassinations, praised them in an interview with a journalist, saying “the removal of important brains” from the Iranian nuclear project had achieved so-called “white defections”, frightening other Iranian nuclear scientists into requesting that they be transferred to civilian projects.

    November 12, 2011,  General Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, the main architect of the Iranian missile system and the founder of Iran’s deterrent power ballistic missile, was assassinated in Tehran.

    April 21, 2018, Fadi Mohammad al-Batsh, a Palestinian engineer, was shot dead by two men on a motorcycle in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

    August 5, 2018, Aziz Asbar, Syrian scientist responsible for long-range rockets and chemical weapons programs, was killed by a car bomb in Masyaf, Syria.

    November 27, 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, senior official in the nuclear program of Iran, was killed by a remotely operated gun in a truck smuggled into Iran.

    March 19, 2023,  Ali Ramzi Al-Aswad, Palestinian Islamic Jihad engineer, was killed in the Damascus outskirts. Islamic Jihad accused Israel of the murder.

    Killing innocent civilians because they perform activities that assist Israel’s adversaries is not confined to weapons manufacture. Anyone in Gaza who helps Gazans to survive the Israeli onslaught is also in the crosshairs.

    Data from the U.N.’s Crisis Coordination Centre In Gaza, released by Dropsite News, shows that, by the end of June, 2024 , Israel’s assault on Gaza killed 195 United Nations staff members and at least 172 dependents of the staff.

    The killing of seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen alarmed the world. It was not an “isolated mistake.” NBC News reports,

    But while the Israel Defense Forces investigation suggests this was an isolated “grave mistake,” the mounting toll faced by aid agencies throughout the war points instead to what they say are systemic failings in the IDF’s approach to protecting humanitarian workers in the Gaza Strip. According to the United Nations, a total of 224 humanitarian aid workers have been killed since the start of the war.

    Murder of Palestinian and Hezbollah leaders

    Israel seems to delight in killing leaders and family members of those opposing Israel, while knowing the deceased leader will be replaced by another leader. Violating the sovereignty of other nations by blooding their soils does not bother the Israelis. They always excuse the killings by claiming the leader had given orders for a violent action against Israelis, without noting that the violent action succeeded several Israeli violent actions against the Palestinians and Israel could terminate the extrajudicial killings by granting the Palestinians their deserved freedom. The Israelis are special people; they are allowed to murder whomever, wherever, and whenever.

    April 16, 1988, Abu Jihad, second-in-command to Yassir Arafat, was shot dead in front of his family by Israeli commandos in Tunis.

    February 16, 1992, Abbas al-Musawi , Secretary-General of Hezbollah, was killed by Israeli Apache helicopters that fired missiles at the 3 vehicle motorcade of al-Musawi in southern Lebanon, killing him, his wife, his five-year-old son, and four others.

    March 22, 2004,  Ahmed Yassin, the frail and nearly blind paraplegic co-founder of Hamas, two bodyguards, and seven bystanders were killed by Israeli Air Force AH-64 Apache-fired Hellfire missiles. Seventeen bystanders were wounded.

    April 17, 2004, Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi, successor to Ahmed Yassin. was killed by helicopter-fired missiles, along with his son and bodyguard. Several bystanders were injured.

    July 31, 2024, Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas, was killed by a bomb in Tehran. Eighty innocent members of Haniyeh’s close and extended family had already been systematically killed by Israel.

    Haniyeh’s murder reminded me of the failed attempt to kill Khaled Mashaal, Hamas’ previous political leader. I met Khaled Mashaal in Damascus, Syria, where he went after his recovery. My notes on that meeting.

    Not kosher was a clandestine trip to meet a “minor” Hamas official, who turned out to be Khalid Meshaal, official political leader of Hamas, exiled in Damascus. The world became more aware of Meshaal when Israel’s Mossad tried to assassinate him in Amman. Jordan’s King Abdullah forced Israel to immediately supply an antidote to the poison given to Meshaal by threatening to publicly hang the Mossad agents who tried to kill the Hamas leader.

    Meshaal does not fill the western media description of a wild eyed fanatic. On the contrary, he is a friendly, deliberate, and well-spoken person who makes sense to the many who subscribe to similar positions. He said that Israel does not want peace and both negotiating parties aren’t strong enough to market their results to their peoples. Meshaal doesn’t delineate Hamas’ positions, but defers to a Palestinian position that accepts 1967 borders and an Arab position that has accepted the two-state solution. Since 2002, Bush has repeatedly spoken of support for a two-state solution, but where is it? The Hamas leader expects the region to be more explosive. Nevertheless, if the PA feels the Palestinian rights have been fulfilled, Hamas will welcome that. He has proposed a Hudna (truce), and if Israel responds positively, Hamas will not be an obstacle to peace. If the Right of Return is the only remaining problem, Hamas will compromise, and accept the will of the people. He claims Hamas does not encourage militancy, does not desire a theocratic state, is a national liberation movement, and will let the Palestinian people decide its own government.

    The February 1986 assassination of Sven Olof Palme, Prime Minister of Sweden from 1969 to 1976 and 1982 to 1986, has never been solved. Swedish prosecutor Krister Petersson claimed “there was ‘reasonable evidence’ that the assailant was Stig Engstrom, a graphic designer at an insurance company, who killed himself in 2000, at the age of 66, and could not rule out the possibility that Mr. Engstrom had acted as part of a larger conspiracy.” Olof Palme, who had credibility and many admirers, was a severe critic of Israel, at a time when no Western leader voiced arguments against Israel. Could Mossad have been involved in his killing?

    Systematic Murder of Journalists

    Journalists are well identified and, in battles that have no battleground and are person to person, there is little possibility of a journalist becoming a casualty unless deliberately targeted. The only reason to deliberately target a journalist is to prevent the presentation of the truth.

    As of August 6, 2024, the Committee to protect Journalists (CPJ) “preliminary investigations showed at least 113 journalists and media workers were among the more than 40,000 killed since the war began, making it the deadliest period for journalists since CPJ began gathering data in 1992.” A previous report, in May 2024, “found that Israeli soldiers had killed at least 20 journalists in the last 22 years and none had ever been charged or held accountable.”

    The most well-known murder of a journalist was the May 11, 2022 deliberate targeting of Shireen Abu Akleh, “a prominent Palestinian-American journalist who worked as a reporter for 25 years for Al Jazeera while wearing a blue press vest and covering a raid on the Jenin refugee camp in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.” The Biden administration insisted “on ‘full and transparent accounting’ of death of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh.” Despite not receiving any accounting, Biden has done nothing to punish Israel.

    Write “bad” stories about the Mafia and the Mafia retaliates, and apparently without concern ─ proof that Mafia Israel controls the American government.

    Revenge attacks on Adversaries

    Anyone who harmed an Israeli can expect to be hunted down and receive retribution. Hundreds of Palestinians and Lebanese Hezbollah have been found guilty without trial, and they and innocent others of mistaken identity have been blasted from the Earth. Three things wrong with the bold strikes.

    (1)    They do not prevent the deaths of Israel’s citizens and soldiers; they only retaliate for the deaths. Why were the Israelis killed; their murders revenged the killings and extreme harm done to individual Palestinians and the Palestinian community.

    (2)    Since day one of the Zionist invasion, the Israel population has been guilty of theft of Palestinian lands, wanton killings of Palestinians, destruction of their communities, oppression, ethnic cleansing, and interferences in their daily life. The Palestinians have a valid reason for their attacks. No Israeli is innocent. Israel’s retaliations are not revenge; they are a way of telling the Palestinians, “If you counter our thefts and oppression of your community we will strike you harder.

    (3)    Hamas and Hezbollah have warned Israel to halt all attacks on the Palestinian community. Israel ignores the threats and willingly provokes Hamas and Hezbollah into counterattacks.

    Character Assassinations

    No officials in the world’s governments speak in the vicious and demeaning manner of other officials as do Israeli officials; dehumanizing Palestinians and defaming antagonists.

    Every decision by United Nations (UN) agencies and Human Rights organizations that contradicts Israel’s polices is met with derision by Israeli officials. As an example, when the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly called for an immediate humanitarian truce between Israel and Hamas, Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan said the UN no longer held “even one ounce of legitimacy or relevance.”

    Speaking at a conference in Israel, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said, “Nobody will let us cause two million civilians to die of hunger, even though it might be justified and moral, until our hostages are returned.”

    Israel’s former justice minister, Ayelet Shaked, posted on Facebook:

    Behind every terrorist stand dozens of men and women, without whom he could not engage in terrorism. They are all enemy combatants, and their blood shall be on all their heads. Now this also includes the mothers of the martyrs, who send them to hell with flowers and kisses. They should follow their sons, nothing would be more just. They should go, as should the physical homes in which they raised the snakes. Otherwise, more little snakes will be raised there.

    Stereotypes and prejudice in conflict: Representations of Arabs in Israeli Jewish society, Bar-Tal, D., & Teichman, Y. (2005), Cambridge University Press, P.359 reports that “10% of the drawings in a sample of children asked to sketch a typical Arab depicted them as animals. Extensive evidence that Israeli children, when asked about Arabs, spoke of them in terms of pigs and other animals (as well as “barbarians,” “Nazis,” and murderers).”

    A worldwide contingent of Israel supporters defame Israel’s critics with false charges of anti-Semitism and media attacks that ruin reputations, cause employment difficulties, and isolate individuals.

    The Canary Mission, documents people and groups that it falsely accuses of promoting hatred of the USA, Israel, and Jews on North American college campuses. This bigoted organization also posts its Jewish Friends of Anti-Semites
    ADL, an organization concerned with false stereotypes, publishes its Top Ten Anti-Israel Groups in America.
    AMCHA, joins the forces of Israel supporters that make a mockery of the word anti-Semite, with its list of more than 200 anti-Israel Middle East Studies professors, many of whom are Jews.

    Israel is a Criminal Enterprise

    Middle East commentators ponder the reasons for Israel’s policy of targeted assassinations. Do they halt aggressive activities that counter Israel? Are they meant to intimidate people so they become fearful of engaging in actions that upset Israel or led to the belief that death is an act of mercy? Do they serve “as a mechanism to galvanize its own society rather than genuinely altering the political or military stance of its adversaries,” mentioned by Abdaljawad Omar in an article, “The real reason Israel is assassinating Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, and why it won’t stop the resistance?” It’s all part of a pattern, the pattern of a criminal enterprise and not the pattern of an established nation.

    Nations are formed from a community of people who share a common land, language, culture, ethnicity, descent, and history for centuries. If it were otherwise, why has Israel’s thrust been to give its Jews the scaffolding of a new nation by giving them a common language, culture, descent, and history, which reject how they previously lived? No established state has governments, leaders, and people who express themselves in the despicable manner and commit extrajudicial crimes in the violent manner as does Israel. The gathering of violent people, their engagement in continuous battle to gain territory and resources, and strong arm those who interfere with their thievery and dictatorial control are the efforts of a criminal enterprise.

    Misinterpretation of the governing nature and violent behavior of Israel has led to a faulty approach to resolving the Middle East crisis. There are no two-state, no one-state, no confederation, and no federal solutions to the crisis. There is only a “no state,” a criminal enterprise that pleads for an international police force to defeat the criminals and prevent additional murderous catastrophes.

    This is not a sarcastic and fanciful gaze at world politics. Engage Israelis in negotiations and find you are negotiating how much you are willing to be robbed. Those who honestly sought and still seek a reasonable compromise and solution of the crisis by negotiations have not factored into their arguments the true nature of the Zionist criminal mission and its criminal constituents;  a criminality that is international, extending to money laundering, ecstasy trade, prostitution, arms trade, and harboring criminals, including sex criminals fleeing the law. Israel does what it wants, when it wants, and where it wants, not functioning as a normal state but as a criminal enterprise.

    All of Israel’s worldwide supporters are criminals by association. The rewards of these aiders and abettors are neither beneficial nor tangible; they are willing to receive nothing, while knowing they share in the horrors done to others, earn contempt from the world community, and, hopefully, will, one day, receive eventual justice of years in prisons.

    The post More than a Killing of Hamas Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Guessing game over when Iran is about to strike Israel over assassination https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/guessing-game-over-when-iran-is-about-to-strike-israel-over-assassination/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/guessing-game-over-when-iran-is-about-to-strike-israel-over-assassination/#respond Mon, 12 Aug 2024 13:39:51 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=104910
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle
     

    Iran may be about to launch a “proper” missile strike on Israel for the first time ever — in retaliation for the attack on Tehran last month which killed Ismail Haniyeh.  Israeli intelligence says an attack is likely to come within days.

    The Jerusalem Post on August 11 quoted Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, as saying: “Iran’s aerial operations against Israel could last three to four days.”

    Lebanon’s Hezbollah has also vowed a major revenge strike for the recent attack on Beirut.

    • READ MORE: Other Israel’s war on Gaza reports

    Once the first Iranian missiles hit — and it won’t be a polite warning like the drone and missile attack on Israel in April in response to the deadly Israeli strike on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus — we could very quickly see missile traffic jams in the sky as both sides work their way up the escalation ladder.

    Lebanese Hezbollah apparently have more than 100,000 missiles, many capable of hitting anywhere in Israel. Iran’s potential is far greater still.

    If Iran hits back it is going to involve advanced missiles with no warning and almost certainly casualties.  Israel’s much-vaunted Iron Dome is likely to fail. Iran’s historic first-ever strike on Israel in April was in fact carefully sign-posted and choreographed in concert with the USA and other players; with the deliberate intention of minimising casualties.

    The apparent quid pro quo was that the US would restrain Israel and ensure Iran was not attacked again.

    ‘That deterrence not enough’
    “With hindsight, that deterrence was not enough,” says Professor Mohammad Marandi, a member of the Iranian nuclear negotiations team, “and so this time around, the Iranians are going to have to hit harder. The Europeans and Americans refused to stop the Israelis from carrying out attacks, so Iran cannot depend on sane European leaders or sane American leaders.”

    Marandi has a point. Iran went to the UN Security Council in April after Israel struck its embassy in Damascus. The US, UK and other Western allies ensured Israel faced no censure for this flagrant breach of international law.  Most recently they also failed to condemn Israel for the Beirut and Tehran attacks that killed two leaders.

    “It wasn’t just a decapitation strike of a leader; it was a decapitation strike on the peace process,” says Palestinian analyst Rula Jebreal.

    Professor Nasr Vali of Johns Hopkins University, a former senior adviser at the US State Department, says Israel is goading Iran into a war and we are witnessing a watershed moment in the world: “The international liberal order is truly dead if the upholder of its core values since World War II no longer really believes in those values or applies them extremely selectively.”

    Palestinian analyst Rula Jebreal: “It wasn’t just a decapitation strike of a leader; it was a decapitation strike on the peace process.”

    Palestinian analyst Rula Jebreal
    Palestinian analyst Rula Jebreal (left) . . . “It wasn’t just a decapitation strike of a leader.” Image: Zeteo screenshot/Solidarity

    A complacent West is going to get a tremendous fright when this kicks off.  Should Israel hit back hard (its default setting) and the US join an attack (likely, given Israeli control of the US Congress), the knock-on effects could include the closing of the Persian Gulf which will mean the ceasing of oil and gas shipments from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the other Gulf states for months or longer.

    Professor Marandi says Iran does not want to see the worst case come to pass, not least because of its effect on friends and allies.

    ‘Global economic meltdown’
    “Countries across the Global South don’t want to see a global economic meltdown – because if there is a regional war, that’s what’s going to happen,” he says.

    “If the Americans get involved, let’s say, and strike Iran, all those countries that host American bases in the Persian Gulf region, they will be [viewed as] hostile.

    “All those oil and gas installations, they’ll be gone. In Iraq, the Americans will be overrun. The global economy will collapse.”

    If a militia like the Houthis can impose control over the Red Sea for the last several months (driving Israel’s primary Red Sea port of Eilat to declare bankruptcy recently) imagine what a major power like Iran could do to the Persian Gulf in response to a US attack?

    What are the odds of all this happening?  The first part is a near-certainty: the Iranians and Hezbollah know that if they do not respond forcefully to the attacks on Tehran and Beirut the US and Israel will continue similar attacks on capitals and territories across the region.

    Iran will be calculating how hard to strike to achieve deterrence — to bring an end to the sense of impunity — but not so hard that a major war ensues by necessity.  Will Israel get the message? Will the US choose sanity over madness?

    The unknown is how targeted the attack will be, what the death toll will be, what assets will be hit and most importantly of all will the Israelis counter-strike?  Most people in the West assume the devastating combined power of the US and Israel will prevail.  Maybe.

    Hypersonic missiles
    Some defence experts, however, say that Iran now has the missile technology, including hypersonic missiles, in sufficient quantities to take out every US ship and military base in the region. That is the last thing the Iranians want because they know full well what the other side is also capable of.

    Trump says, if he were President and Iran attacked Israel he would wipe the country of 80 million people off the map.

    If the US foolishly joins in the fighting, however, the Iranians will, out of necessity, have to strike — and that in turn will imperil all the Gulf States and the ruling elites/monarchies in the region, none of whom enjoy wide support among their populations who are seething at what is being done to Gaza.

    On the Lebanese front the very real danger, as UN Secretary-General António Gutteres warned in June, is that Israel and America try to do to Lebanon what they are doing to Gaza.

    Enter Türkiye:  An attack on Lebanon could necessitate Türkiye’s entry into the war.

    “Türkiye stands with the brotherly people and state of Lebanon. I call on other countries in the region to stand in solidarity with Lebanon,” President Erdogan said recently.
    Netanyahu’s plans to spread the war to the region will lead to a big catastrophe,” he said, adding that the Western support for Israel was “pitiful”.

    Some think Erdogan is blustering, a risky assumption. The threat alone should set heads spinning.  Türkiye not only has the largest army in the region; it is a member of NATO.

    Witness the unthinkable
    If the US attacks Lebanon in concert with the Israelis, we could witness the unthinkable: two NATO countries on opposite sides of a major war!  Decades of American foreign policy would lie in tatters.

    Chas Freeman, a former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, shakes his head in horror.

    “Mr Netanyahu doesn’t have any path out of the abyss he has led his country into. Israel can’t do much without our support yet we have given them a blank check.

    “Israel resolutely resists any attention to American interests as opposed to its own. Israel is basically an albatross around our neck.”

    Professor John Mearsheimer raises another risk to a key pillar of US foreign policy.

    “You want to remember that if you really slam Iran, that’s going to give Iran a very powerful incentive to acquire nuclear weapons,” Mearsheimer says.  He also points to more blowback from US bungling important relationships.

    “Russian military planes and experts have been streaming into Iran delivering support in forms we can only speculate on. Russia will perceive any US attack on Iran as a strategic threat to itself.

    A global ‘Axis of Resistance’
    “We’re driving the Chinese, Russians, Iranians and North Koreans closer and closer together. It’s the Axis of Resistance on a global scale, and there’s no evidence that this is going to change anytime soon. This is certainly not in our interest.”

    Nobody, absolutely nobody, is going to win if war breaks out.  The US will bear tremendous responsibility for a coming calamity because they have allowed Israel to become a genocidal state, an apartheid state, a brutal occupier, a land thief of Olympic proportions and a gangster terrorising the entire region.

    Israel’s triumph — seizing the rudder of US foreign policy via the Israel lobby — could ultimately prove fatal to its own interests.

    Governments in the West, like those of Australia and New Zealand, should abandon their current servile posture towards a feckless, militaristic USA and insist on diplomacy, an immediate end to the genocide in Gaza and the illegal occupation of Palestine by the Israeli state, and, at long last, genuine respect for international law.

    Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Look away from Israel’s crimes, they say, blame Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/look-away-from-israels-crimes-they-say-blame-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/12/look-away-from-israels-crimes-they-say-blame-iran/#respond Mon, 12 Aug 2024 03:26:50 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=152708 They say Iran “masterminded” a Canadian student encampment and is “destabilizing” West Asia. But these crude ‘blame Iran’ claims are nothing more than pathetic attempts to legitimate genocidal Zionism. Recently, various commentators, politicians and Zionist groups promoted a deranged report Iran “masterminded” the student divestment encampment at McGill. Seeking to frame student opposition to their […]

    The post Look away from Israel’s crimes, they say, blame Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    They say Iran “masterminded” a Canadian student encampment and is “destabilizing” West Asia. But these crude ‘blame Iran’ claims are nothing more than pathetic attempts to legitimate genocidal Zionism.

    Recently, various commentators, politicians and Zionist groups promoted a deranged report Iran “masterminded” the student divestment encampment at McGill. Seeking to frame student opposition to their university’s complicity with Israel’s holocaust as Iranian interference, the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, Canada Proud, MP Kevin Vuong, senator Leo Housakos, conservative candidate Neil Oberman, influencer Yasmine Mohammed, journalist Sam Cooper, Hampstead mayor Jeremy Levi and others shared an Iran International report headlined “Iran masterminded anti-Israel protest in Canadian university”. Drawing from an analysis by an unnamed official at US cyber company XPOZ, the article claims large numbers of social media posts about the McGill encampment were in Farsi and may have come from Iranian government aligned accounts. A National Post article “Disinformation experts warn Iran, Russia and others encouraging anti-Israel protests in Canada” used the same data though it was slightly more circumspect in concluding Iran “masterminded” the encampment. It was shared by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

    As someone who went to the encampment regularly and has followed activism at McGill for a quarter century it’s hard to not laugh at the absurdity. In the lead up to the encampment several students went on a two-month hunger strike to pressure the university to divest and there were a number of large anti-genocide protests on campus during the last academic year. For a decade there have been referendums on Palestine and in November 78.7% of undergraduates called on the administration to sever ties with “any corporations, institutions or individuals complicit in genocide, settler-colonialism, apartheid, or ethnic cleansing against Palestinians.” It was the largest referendum turnout in the Students’ Society of McGill University (SSMU) history.

    The broader context in which the encampment grew out of also demonstrates the silliness of the ‘blame Iran’ claim. The students who set up the McGill encampment were quite obviously mimicking the tactics of their US counterparts. And the tactic had little to do with social media. I doubt the reliability of the data quoted by Iran International and the National Post but even if lots of Farsi language Iranian government bots promoted the encampment what impact did this have on a physical occupation of a campus in Montreal?

    At a higher level of ‘blame Iran’ idiocy, foreign affairs minister Melanie Joly is claiming Iran is “destabilizing” the region. A statement she released on Sunday regarding rising tensions in the region concluded, “I reiterated our call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, for the immediate release of all hostages, and demand that Iran and its proxies refrain from destabilizing actions in the region.” On July 26 Canada, Australia and New Zealand released a joint statement with a similar formulation. It noted, “We condemn Iran’s attack against Israel of April 13-14, call on Iran to refrain from further destabilizing actions in the Middle East, and demand that Iran and its affiliated groups, including Hizballah, cease their attacks.”

    Canadian officials never refer to Israel as “destabilizing” the region even though that country has killed hundreds of thousands in Gaza and stolen ever more Palestinian land in the West Bank all the while repeatedly attacking Lebanon and Syria and assassinating the Palestinians’ main ceasefire negotiator in Iran.

    As part of its blame Iran nonsense, Ottawa has ignored Israel’s recent assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran and top Hezbolah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. But they will no doubt denounce Iran or Hezbollah when they respond.

    Four months ago, Ottawa remained silent when Israel damaged Canada’s embassy in Damascus while murdering eight Iranian officials at the country’s diplomatic compound. Then the Canadian government condemned Iran when it responded to Israel’s flagrant war crime.

    As part of this blame Iran mantra Ottawa recently joined the US in designating the 100,000-member Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization. Listing the IRGC bolsters Israeli violence in the region.

    Canada continues to strengthen Israel as it commits horrific crime after horrific crime across the region. As death from illness and malnutrition grows due to 10 months of IOF barbarism in Gaza, Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently said it may be “justified and moral” to starve 2 million Palestinians but the world won’t let Israel do it. At the same time, Knesset members are openly debating the legitimacy of raping the 10,000 Palestinian hostages Israel holds in what a recent B’tselem report refers to as “torture camps”.

    But instead of focusing on Israel’s crimes we’re told to look away. At first, we were told Israel’s genocide was all Hamas’ fault. Now it’s Iran that is to blame.

    Israel and its supporters are like 4-year-olds caught with their hands in the cookie jar. It’s always someone else’s fault. Except this is not about a stolen sweet. This is about the world watching a genocide in real time and doing nothing about it.

    The post Look away from Israel’s crimes, they say, blame Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Yves Engler.

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    How Iran Is Preparing The Public For Attack Against Israel After Hamas Leader Killing https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/08/how-iran-is-preparing-the-public-for-attack-against-israel-after-hamas-leader-killing/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/08/how-iran-is-preparing-the-public-for-attack-against-israel-after-hamas-leader-killing/#respond Thu, 08 Aug 2024 16:59:55 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=aa4fbfa8a662ba95a74c507dfebba2e3
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Pundits Push for Regional Escalation in the Wake of Israeli Assassinations https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/07/pundits-push-for-regional-escalation-in-the-wake-of-israeli-assassinations/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/07/pundits-push-for-regional-escalation-in-the-wake-of-israeli-assassinations/#respond Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:39:08 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9041137  

    Following Israel’s assassinations of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut—along with a woman and two children (Al Jazeera, 7/30/24)—and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, corporate media pundits have called for the US and Israel to escalate the region-wide war.

    Wall Street Journal: Weakness Won’t Deter Hezbollah After Its Soccer-Field Attack

    According to the Wall Street Journal (7/28/24), the “way to make war less likely is to announce that American munitions transfers to Israel will be expedited immediately.”

    A Wall Street Journal editorial (7/28/24), using galaxy-brain logic, said the

    way to make war less likely is to announce that American munitions transfers to Israel will be expedited immediately, as they were earlier in the war and as Congress has approved, and that all oil sanctions on [Hezbollah ally] Iran will be enforced again.

    US-supplied weapons have already been a major part of Israel’s post–October 7 attacks on Lebanon, inflicting a terrible cost. The Washington Post (12/13/23) reported that, in October, Israel fired US-made white phosphorus—incendiary material that can cause ghastly injuries and death—into the Lebanese village Dheira; the attack incinerated at least four homes, according to residents, and injured nine. In March, Israel used a US-provided weapon in an airstrike on the Lebanese town of al-Habariyeh, killing seven volunteer paramedics, aged 18–25, in violation of international law (Guardian, 5/6/24).

    Prior to last week’s Israeli attack on Lebanon, Israel had killed at least 543 people in Lebanon since October 7 (Al Jazeera, 6/27/24), including roughly 100 civilians (BBC, 7/22/24); US fighter jets have played a key role in Israel’s Lebanon campaign (Deutsche Welle, 7/19/24). Far from “mak[ing] war less likely,” US armaments enable Israel to kill and maim Lebanese people. (According to Israeli officials, Hezbollah attacks have killed 33 Israelis, mostly soldiers, since October 7—BBC, 7/17/24.)

    The editorial invoked a tissue-thin casus belli on Israel’s behalf, saying that Hezbollah carried out a “rocket attack on Saturday [that] killed 12 children and wounded more on a soccer field in Israel’s Golan Heights.” One problem: There is no such thing as “Israel’s Golan Heights”; there is only Syria’s Golan Heights, which Israel has illegally occupied, illegally annexed and illegally settled (Foreign Policy, 2/5/19). Casting the deaths in Majdal Shams, the predominately Druze village in the Golan where the killings occurred, as an attack on Israel makes it sound as if Israeli violence against Lebanon (such as its Beirut bombing) is what the editorial calls Israel “defend[ing] itself.”

    ‘Israel returns fire’

    WSJ: Israel Returns Fire on Iran and Its Proxies

    The Wall Street Journal (8/1/24) maintains that the assassination of a Hamas negotiator could help peace negotiations, as “Hamas politicians remaining in Qatar now know their lives are also on the line if they continue to resist Israel’s reasonable terms.”

    A second Wall Street Journal editorial (8/1/24) pushed a similar line, deploying the headline, “Israel Returns Fire on Iran and Its Proxies.” Strangely, Iranian actions are not described as “return[ing] fire” for Israel’s years of attacks on Iranian territory, which have taken the form of sabotaging the Iranian electrical grid, cyberattacks (New York Times, 4/11/21) and murdering Iranian scientists (Politico, 3/5/18). Doubling down on its demands for belligerence, the editorial’s authors argued:

    The US can help Israel prevent a larger war by putting pressure on Hezbollah and Iran. Expediting weapons to Israel, including deep-penetrating bombs that would put Iran’s nuclear facilities at risk, would send a message, as would enforcing oil sanctions again. Sending US warships to the eastern Mediterranean, as after October 7, would also make Iran think twice about Hezbollah’s next move.

    The Journal seems to think that doing the same thing over and over again—namely, sending more weapons to Israel, choking Iranian civilians through sanctions (Canadian Dimension, 4/3/23) and upping the US military presence in the region—will produce different results. Maybe this time, the authors seem to suggest, Iran and Hezbollah will decide to just let the US and Israel dictate what happens across West Asia.

    Nor does the editorial explore the possibility that Iran might be less inclined to strike Israel if Israel were to cease carrying out assassinations on Iranian soil, bombing its embassies (Reuters, 4/4/24) or carrying out genocide against Iran’s Palestinian allies.

    ‘Response to Hezbollah’

    NYT: Israel’s Five Wars

    For the New York Times‘ Bret Stephens (7/30/24), Israel is at war not only with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but with “Israel’s most strident critics” on campuses, with the “‘yes but’ thinking” that supports Israel while condemning civilian deaths, and with “Jews who provide moral cover and comfort to Israel’s enemies.”

    In the New York Times, columnist Bret Stephens (7/30/24) put forth a similar view, writing that

    the world will soon know the full shape and scale of Israel’s response to Hezbollah for [the] rocket attack on a Druze town in the Golan Heights, which killed 12 children.

    Another problem with this line of argument is that there is some doubt as to whether it was a Hezbollah projectile that hit the Golan, and a great deal of doubt as to whether, if it was Hezbollah’s rocket, it was deliberately fired at Majdal Shams (LA Times, 7/30/24).

    Despite Stephens’ suggestion that an Israeli assault on Lebanon would be a “response” to a Hezbollah “attack,” only 20% of Majdal Shams residents have accepted Israeli citizenship, while the bulk of the town’s inhabitants continue to be citizens of Syria (LA Times, 7/30/24).

    Not content with last week’s attack on Beirut, Stephens wrote that

    whatever Israel does next, it should be calculated to advance the national interests on all [fronts of its multifaceted wars]. If that means postponing a fuller response to explain its rationale, necessity and goal, so much the better.

    The “fuller response” he has in mind seems to be more Israeli violence, since what it would be “fuller” than is the bombing of Beirut, and the premise of the article is that the Israeli government is fighting a five-fronted war. Worry not, Stephens assures his readers, any further Israeli bombings and assassinations will by definition be a “response,” and thus defensible.

    ‘Iranian imperialism’

    NYT: America May Soon Face a Fateful Choice About Iran

    Thomas Friedman (New York Times, 8/1/24) recasts the Gaza crisis as “part of a broader Iranian campaign to drive America out of the Middle East.”

    Meanwhile, Stephens’ colleague Thomas Friedman (8/1/24) painted Iran as the primary aggressor in West Asia. He called Iran an “imperial power,” condemning “Iranian imperialism” and “Tehran’s regional imperialist adventure.” Iran’s goal, he asserted,  is “to control the whole Arab world.”

    Since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, the state has carried out zero full-scale invasions of Arab majority countries (and zero such attacks on non-Arab nations). In the same period, the US, which is evidently not imperialist, and not trying to “control the whole Arab world,” has carried out full-fledged invasions of Libya and (more than once) of Iraq. In addition to annexing and colonizing part of Syria, Israel has repeatedly invaded Lebanon. Colonizing, occupying and annexing Palestinian land, and now committing genocide against Palestinians, presumably also constitute the US and Israel seeking to “control” an important slice of the “Arab world.”

    Yet in Friedman’s topsy-turvy universe, Iran is the main source of violence in the region. That misleading framing wrongly suggests that past and future acts of war against Iran are legitimate and necessary.

    Nobody knows what the political and military outcome of a broader conflagration in the Middle East would be, but the human and environmental toll on the region would be colossal. High-profile pundits in America are doing their part to help such an outcome materialize.

     


    This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Gregory Shupak.

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    Jeremy Scahill on New Head of Hamas, Questions About Haniyeh Assassination & Iran Retaliation https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/07/jeremy-scahill-on-new-head-of-hamas-questions-about-haniyeh-assassination-iran-retaliation-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/07/jeremy-scahill-on-new-head-of-hamas-questions-about-haniyeh-assassination-iran-retaliation-2/#respond Wed, 07 Aug 2024 16:28:21 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=8f9bd40fb7e5054c6d3dab52747269c0
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Jeremy Scahill on New Head of Hamas, Questions About Haniyeh Assassination & Iran Retaliation https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/07/jeremy-scahill-on-new-head-of-hamas-questions-about-haniyeh-assassination-iran-retaliation/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/07/jeremy-scahill-on-new-head-of-hamas-questions-about-haniyeh-assassination-iran-retaliation/#respond Wed, 07 Aug 2024 12:41:42 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=55e4dc4ab2c60b1b47e3f7f51b5dbdc7 Seg3 jeremy

    Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar as successor to former senior political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week, shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warmly received visit to the United States. Sinwar helped to found the precursor to Hamas’s current militant wing and is believed to have orchestrated the organization’s October 7 attack on Israel. As the region braces for a retaliatory attack on Israel from Iran, we speak to Jeremy Scahill, whose latest piece for Drop Site News details Hamas’s account of the assassination, and look at how Haniyeh’s death and Sinwar’s ascension may affect Hamas’s next moves and the course of the nearly yearlong conflict in Gaza.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    NZ tells citizens to leave Iran and Lebanon now ‘while options remain’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/04/nz-tells-citizens-to-leave-iran-and-lebanon-now-while-options-remain/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/04/nz-tells-citizens-to-leave-iran-and-lebanon-now-while-options-remain/#respond Sun, 04 Aug 2024 11:11:21 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=104575 RNZ News

    The coalition government is telling New Zealanders in Iran and Lebanon to leave immediately as tensions rise in the Middle East.

    “The New Zealand government urges New Zealanders in Lebanon and Iran to leave now while options remain available,” Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said in a social media post today.

    “We also recommend New Zealanders in Israel consider whether they need to remain in the country.”

    • READ MORE: US, UK and France ask their citizens to leave Lebanon as war fears loom
    • Other Israel’s War on Gaza reports

    The New Zealand Government urges New Zealanders in Lebanon and Iran to leave now while options remain available.

    We also recommend New Zealanders in Israel consider whether they need to remain in the country.

    -WP

    — Winston Peters (@NewZealandMFA) August 4, 2024


    It comes after the government updated its Safetravel advisory, warning people not to travel to Lebanon due to what it called the volatile security situation.

    The advisory elevated Lebanon to the highest level, meaning “extreme risk”.

    The United States has urged citizens to leave Lebanon on “any available ticket”, while the British Foreign Secretary warned British citizens in Lebanon to leave immediately or risk “becoming trapped in a warzone”.

    Iran vowed retaliation
    Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel, which it blames for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau, earlier this week.

    Just hours before his assassination, Israel killed Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an air strike.

    There are fears that Hezbollah — which is based in Lebanon and backed by Iran — could play a big part in any retaliation.

    That, in turn, could result in a huge Israeli response.

    Israel has been at war with Hamas since the resistance group’s attack on 7 October 2023 which saw nearly 1200 people killed.

    Israel’s ground and air campaigns have killed more than 40,000 people in Gaza in the months since, according to Palestinian health authorities.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Israel accused of being a ‘rogue state’ trying to destabilise Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/03/israel-accused-of-being-a-rogue-state-trying-to-destabilise-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/03/israel-accused-of-being-a-rogue-state-trying-to-destabilise-middle-east/#respond Sat, 03 Aug 2024 02:49:05 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=104483 Asia Pacific Report

    Hanan Ashrawi, a Palestinian political leader and a former member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Executive Committee, says Israel’s “gangster style assassination and extrajudicial executions” are designed to “inflame the whole region”, reports Al Jazeera.

    The killings of the Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, Lebanon, were carried out to “sabotage any chances” of a ceasefire deal in Gaza and regional de-escalation, Ashrawi said.

    Haniyeh was a chief Hamas negotiator for a ceasefire in Israel’s genocidal war and had built up formidable diplomatic credentials across the region.

    • READ MORE: US sends warplanes, battleships to region amid Iran-Israel tension
    • Promoting peace and stability in the Middle East by unconditionally backing its worst aggressor
    • Other Israel’s war on Gaza reports

    While Israel and the United States regarded him as a “terrorist”, thousands mourned him across the Middle East yesterday, demonstrated huge and widespread support and respect.

    “These are attacks not just on the capitals of sovereign states but also on significant leaders to ensure total provocation [and] destabilisation,” Ashrawi wrote on social media.

    “Israel is a rogue state that represents a real [and] present danger globally,” she said.

    ‘Maddening and shameful’
    Marking the 300th day of Israel’s war on Gaza yesterday, Palestinian-American scholar Noura Erakat said it was “maddening and shameful” that the world had not been able to stop one of the “grossest, most blatant colonial genocides”.

    In a post on social media, Erakat said Israel’s genocide in Gaza had featured the use of advanced weapons as well as the spread of disease, “poisoning of the earth” as well as sexual assault and torture, reports Al Jazeera.

    Israel’s genocide must be remembered for what it is, Erakat said, adding “we cannot afford to lose the next battle over narrative”.

    “A blight on all humanity, to ascribe shame to all who let it happen [and] glory to those who fought so that the future indeed ensures: never again,” she said.

    Day 300. Its maddening and shameful we have not been able to end one of the grossest, most blatant colonial #genocides feat disease, poisoning of the earth, sexual assualt, torture, & advanced weapons. This will end & we cannot afford to lose the next battle over narrative (1/2)

    — Noura Erakat (@4noura) August 1, 2024

    According to an analysis of data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), Israel is responsible for 17,081 incidents of air/drone raids, shelling/missile attacks, remote explosives and property destruction in eight countries since October 7, including the occupied Palestinian territory, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Iran and Iraq.

    A majority of these attacks were on the Palestinian territory, specifically the Gaza Strip, with 10,389 incidents accounting for more than 60 percent of the total offensives.

    There were at least 6,544 incidents of Israeli attacks on Lebanon (38 percent), followed by Syria with 144 such incidents recorded.


    Haniyeh funeral final ceremonies in Qatar.           Video: Al Jazeera

    Released 15 Palestinian prisoners tortured
    Israeli forces have released 15 Palestinian prisoners into Gaza. They were dropped off at a military checkpoint near Deir el-Balah in central Gaza. Many spoke of abuse and torture while detained.

    Israel has detained thousands of Palestinians during the war in Gaza and stands accused of numerous cases of torture, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights says in a new report.

    The 23-page report, released on Wednesday, noted allegations of widespread abuse of prisoners being held incommunicado in arbitrary, prolonged detention.

    It was published during a tense standoff in Israel as far-right politicians and demonstrators opposed an investigation into alleged sexual abuse of Palestinian detainees by Israeli soldiers.

    The death toll in the genocidal war at the 300 day mark has topped 40,000 Palestinians, including more than 16,000 children.

    Day 300 . . . and the death toll in Israel's genocidal war on Gaza has topped 40,000
    Day 300 . . . and the death toll in Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza has topped 40,000, including more than 16,000 children. Graphic: Al Jazeera/Creative Coommons


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Promoting peace and stability in the Middle East by unconditionally backing its worst aggressor https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/02/promoting-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-by-unconditionally-backing-its-worst-aggressor/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/02/promoting-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-by-unconditionally-backing-its-worst-aggressor/#respond Fri, 02 Aug 2024 09:10:03 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=104450 COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone

    President Biden — if you feel like pretending Biden is still serving as President and still making the decisions in the White House — has pledged to support Israel against any retaliations for its recent assassination spree in Iran and Lebanon which killed high-profile officials from Hamas and Hezbollah.

    A White House statement asserts that Biden spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday and “reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis,” and “discussed efforts to support Israel’s defence against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments.”

    Hilariously, the statement also claims that “the President stressed the importance of ongoing efforts to de-escalate broader tensions in the region.”

    • READ MORE: ‘Shattered hope’ in Gaza as crowds gather for Haniyeh’s Doha funeral
    • LISTEN: A reading of this article by Tim Foley

    Yep, nothing emphasises the importance of de-escalating broader tensions in the region like pledging unconditional military support for the region’s single most belligerent actor no matter how reckless and insane its aggressions become.

    This statement from the White House echoes comments from Secretary of “Defence” Lloyd Austin a day earlier, who said “We certainly will help defend Israel” should a wider war break out as a result of Israel’s assassination strikes.

    Biden promises Netanyahu the U.S. will defend Israel from any reprisal attacks pic.twitter.com/9meq2hTBmq

    — Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) August 1, 2024

    All this babbling about “defending” the state of Israel is intended to convey the false impression that Israel has just been sitting there minding its own business, and is about to suffer unprovoked attacks from hostile aggressors for some unfathomable reason.

    As though detonating military explosives in the capital cities of two nations to conduct political assassinations would not be seen as an extreme act of war in need of a violent response by literally all governments on this planet.

    Helping Israeli attacks
    In reality, the US isn’t vowing to defend the state of Israel, the US is vowing to help Israel attack other countries.

    If you’re pledging unconditional support to an extremely belligerent aggressor while it commits the most demented acts of aggression imaginable, all you’re doing is condoning those acts of aggression and making sure it will suffer no consequences when it conducts more of them.

    The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has reiterated its calls for Israeli forces “to minimize the impact of military operations on civilians in Gaza and to end the killing of journalists.”

    🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/zy5TRLrI15 pic.twitter.com/U3wHa464IQ

    — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) August 1, 2024

    Washington’s position is made even more absurd after all the hysterical shrieking and garment-rending from the Washington establishment following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump.

    Israel murdered the leader of the Hamas political bureau, not a military commander, and he was the primary negotiator in the mediated ceasefire talks with Israel.

    This was a political assassination just like a successful attempt on Trump’s life would have been, but probably a lot more consequential. And yet the only response from Washington has been to announce that it will help Israel continue its incendiary brinkmanship throughout the Middle East.

    Washington swamp monsters talk all the time about their desire to promote “peace and stability in the Middle East”, while simultaneously pledging loyalty and support for a Middle Eastern nation whose actions pose a greater obstacle to peace and stability in the region than any other.

    These contradictions are becoming more and more glaring and apparent before the entire world.

    Caitlin Johnstone is an Australian independent journalist and poet. Her articles include The UN Torture Report On Assange Is An Indictment Of Our Entire Society. She publishes a website and Caitlin’s Newsletter. This article is republished with permission.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Money War: How the U.S. Unleashed Economic Warfare Across the Globe, from Venezuela to Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/money-war-how-the-u-s-unleashed-economic-warfare-across-the-globe-from-venezuela-to-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/money-war-how-the-u-s-unleashed-economic-warfare-across-the-globe-from-venezuela-to-iran-2/#respond Thu, 01 Aug 2024 16:00:14 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=301f640f269f596c1538d7576a61a145
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    "Perilous Moment": Iran Vows Revenge as Israel Expands Assassination Operations https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/perilous-moment-iran-vows-revenge-as-israel-expands-assassination-operations/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/perilous-moment-iran-vows-revenge-as-israel-expands-assassination-operations/#respond Thu, 01 Aug 2024 15:59:40 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=eb627880deb2ae8f64142ee6c2ec8f7c
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Money War: How the U.S. Unleashed Economic Warfare Across the Globe, from Venezuela to Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/money-war-how-the-u-s-unleashed-economic-warfare-across-the-globe-from-venezuela-to-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/money-war-how-the-u-s-unleashed-economic-warfare-across-the-globe-from-venezuela-to-iran/#respond Thu, 01 Aug 2024 12:49:55 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=a6ed51a1f7c20a40dd0ffa53d590c4a8 Sanctionsstein

    We look at a new Washington Post investigation titled “Money War” that traces the effects of U.S. sanctions under the last four presidents: Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden. According to the report, the U.S government has instituted, in some form or another, sanctions against a third of all other countries around the world, despite no clear evidence that they are effective in influencing target nations’ politics, and in fact may often entrench the power of ruling parties. We speak to Jeff Stein, one of the authors of the Post investigation, about its findings, including on the effects of sanctions in Venezuela and Iran.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/money-war-how-the-u-s-unleashed-economic-warfare-across-the-globe-from-venezuela-to-iran/feed/ 0 486756
    “A Perilous Moment” in Middle East: Iran Vows Revenge as Israel Expands Assassination Operations https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/a-perilous-moment-in-middle-east-iran-vows-revenge-as-israel-expands-assassination-operations/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/a-perilous-moment-in-middle-east-iran-vows-revenge-as-israel-expands-assassination-operations/#respond Thu, 01 Aug 2024 12:11:31 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=ced5959711c41601f202f9658c937159 Seg1 iran haniyeh protest 2

    “This is one of the most perilous moments in the [Middle East] region in years,” says Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group Iran Project, after Israel’s assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in Tehran. Iranian retaliation against Israel appears imminent. “All bets are off,” warns Vaez, adding that Israel’s latest maneuver will put Americans “in harm’s way,” as Iran will no longer hold back fellow Axis of Resistance members, especially Islamic militias in Iraq and Syria, from launching attacks on U.S. military bases in the region. “It is disastrous for a superpower who cannot control, basically, a client state that is destabilizing the region,” Vaez explains. We also hear from Palestinian human rights attorney Diana Buttu, who responds to Israel’s announcement that its July strike on al-Mawasi, an alleged safe zone in Gaza, killed Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif along with nearly a hundred civilians. Buttu argues it is Israel’s international impunity over the course of its campaign against Palestine that has led to this dangerous moment of escalation. “This is a monster that’s been unleashed,” she says. “This is going to spread, and this is exactly what Netanyahu wants.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/a-perilous-moment-in-middle-east-iran-vows-revenge-as-israel-expands-assassination-operations/feed/ 0 486853
    Why Israel assassinated Haniyeh – desperation over Gaza failure https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/why-israel-assassinated-haniyeh-desperation-over-gaza-failure/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/08/01/why-israel-assassinated-haniyeh-desperation-over-gaza-failure/#respond Thu, 01 Aug 2024 09:26:09 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=104399 ANALYSIS: By Ramzy Baroud

    Israel’s assassination of the head of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, on yesterday is part of Tel Aviv’s overall desperate search for a wider conflict. It is a criminal act that reeks of desperation.

    Almost immediately after the start of the Gaza war on October 7, Israel hoped to use the genocide in the Strip as an opportunity to achieve its long-term goal of a regional war — one that would rope in Washington as well as Iran and other Middle Eastern countries.

    Despite unconditional support for its genocide in Gaza, and various conflicts throughout the region, the United States refrained from entering a direct war against Iran and others.

    • READ MORE: Israeli military claims killing Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif
    • Other Israel’s war on Gaza reports

    Although defeating Iran is an American strategic objective, the US lacks the will and tools to pursue it now.

    After 10 months of a failed war on Gaza and a military stalemate against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel is, once more, accelerating its push for a wider conflict. This time around, however, Israel is engaging in a high-stakes game — the most dangerous of its previous gambles.

    The current gamble involved the targeting of a top Hezbollah leader by bombing a residential building in Beirut on Tuesday — and, of course, the assassination of Palestine’s most visible, let alone popular political leader.

    Successful Haniyeh diplomacy
    Haniyeh, has succeeded in forging and strengthening ties with Russia, China, and other countries beyond the US-Western political domain.

    Israel chose the place and timing of killing Haniyeh carefully. The Palestinian leader was killed in the Iranian capital, shortly after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian.

    The Israeli message was a compound one, to Iran’s new administration — that of Israel’s readiness to escalate further — and to Hamas, that Israel has no intentions to end the war or to reach a negotiated ceasefire.

    The latter point is perhaps the most urgent. For months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done everything in his power to impede all diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war.

    By killing the top Palestinian negotiator, Israel delivered a final and decisive message that Israel remains invested in violence, and in nothing else.

    The scale of the Israeli provocations, however, poses a great challenge to the pro-Palestinian camp in the Middle East, namely, how to respond with equally strong messages without granting Israel its wish of embroiling the whole region in a destructive war.

    Considering the military capabilities of what is known as the “Axis of Resistance”, Iran, Hezbollah and others are certainly capable of managing this challenge despite the risk factors involved.

    Equally important regarding timing: the Israeli dramatic escalation in the region, followed a visit by Netanyahu to Washington, which, aside from many standing ovations at the US Congress, didn’t fundamentally alter the US position, predicated on the unconditional support for Israel without direct US involvement in a regional war.

    Coup a real possibility
    Additionally, Israel’s recent clashes involving the army, military police, and the supporters of the far right suggest that an actual coup in Israel might be a real possibility. In the words of Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid: Israel is not nearing the abyss, Israel is already in the abyss.

    It is, therefore, clear to Netanyahu and his far-right circle that they are operating within an increasingly limited time and margins.

    By killing Haniyeh, a political leader who has essentially served the role of a diplomat, Israel demonstrated the extent of its desperation and the limits of its military failure.

    Considering the criminal extent to which Israel is willing to go, such desperation could eventually lead to the regional war that Israel has been trying to instigate, even before the Gaza war.

    Keeping in mind Washington’s weakness and indecision in the face of Israel’s intransigence, Tel Aviv might achieve its wish of a regional war after all.

    Republished from The Palestine Chronicle with permission. The Chronicle is edited by Palestinian journalist and media consultant Ramzy Baroud, author of The Last Earth: A Palestine Story, who visited New Zealand in 2019.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Iran Vows Revenge For Israel As Fears Of Regional War Arise | Hamas Leader Killed https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/hamas-leader-killed-will-regional-war-follow-iran-vows-revenge/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/hamas-leader-killed-will-regional-war-follow-iran-vows-revenge/#respond Wed, 31 Jul 2024 22:07:36 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=4a36d6f449fe6a3174bca154835afcd4
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Tehran after Israel bombs Beirut https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-after-israel-bombs-beirut/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-after-israel-bombs-beirut/#respond Wed, 31 Jul 2024 21:36:51 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=152391 Ismail Haniyeh during a video statement marking the 34th anniversary of the founding of the Hamas movement, December 2021. (Hamas Chief Office) Hamas announced early Wednesday that Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Palestinian faction’s political wing, was assassinated in Tehran, where he was present for the inauguration of the new Iranian president. The assassination, […]

    The post Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Tehran after Israel bombs Beirut first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Ismail Haniyeh during a video statement marking the 34th anniversary of the founding of the Hamas movement, December 2021. (Hamas Chief Office)

    Hamas announced early Wednesday that Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Palestinian faction’s political wing, was assassinated in Tehran, where he was present for the inauguration of the new Iranian president.

    The assassination, in Iran no less, marks a major escalation that will likely have regional ramifications and came hours after Israel bombed Lebanon on Tuesday evening, killing three civilians, according to Lebanese state media. Israel claimed that it killed a senior Hizballah figure in the strike, but the Lebanese resistance group had not issued a statement on the matter at the time of publication.

    Israel killed multiple members representing multiple generations of Haniyeh’s family in Gaza since October. Several leaders of Hamas have been assassinated by Israel before Haniyeh, only to be replaced and for the organization’s capabilities to grow.

    In January, Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’ politburo, was killed in a strike in Beirut along with several other cadres and commanders with the group.

    Two weeks ago, Israel claimed to have killed Muhammad Deif, the secretive head of Hamas’ armed wing, in a strike in Gaza that killed at least 90 Palestinians in an area it had unilaterally declared as a humanitarian zone.

    Israel continued to wage attacks across Gaza by air, land and sea amid heavy fighting and ground incursions on Tuesday.

    The Palestinian health ministry in Gaza said on Tuesday that 37 people had been killed in Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours, bringing the death toll to 39,400 since early October.

    The actual number of fatalities is likely much higher, with thousands of people missing under the rubble or their bodies not yet recovered from Gaza’s streets.

    The Israeli military withdrew from eastern Khan Younis, the largest city in southern Gaza, on Tuesday following an incursion lasting eight days and forcing another wave of mass displacement from the area.

    Palestinians returned to Khan Younis to find evidence of what the government media office in Gaza described as “horrific massacres” for which it demanded international accountability.

    “Palestinian rescue workers and civilians collected dead bodies from the streets of the abandoned battle zone, bringing corpses wrapped in rugs to morgues in cars and donkey carts,” Reuters reported.

    The government media office said that the bodies of 255 people had been recovered and more than 30 others were missing.

    During the incursion, the Israeli military fired on 31 homes with their residents inside, as well as more than 300 other homes and residential buildings.

    The military also razed the cemetery in Bani Suheila and its surroundings on the eastern outskirts of Khan Younis:

    #????? | ??? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ??????*????.

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    ??? ??? ????? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ?? ??????? ???? ????… pic.twitter.com/8uqmdsbu1V

    — EekadFacts | ????? (@EekadFacts) July 30, 2024

    Nearly all of Gaza under evacuation orders

    Israel meanwhile issued new forced displacement orders in al-Bureij, central Gaza, “launching strikes there in apparent preparation for a new raid,” according to Reuters.

    “Medics said an Israeli air strike in nearby al-Nuseirat killed 10 Palestinians as they fled from Bureij on Tuesday, and another strike killed four other Palestinians inside Bureij,” the news agency added.

    More than 85 percent of the territory of Gaza is under an Israeli so-called evacuation order, the UN agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA) said on Monday.

    But there is no safe place for people to go, and no assurance of protection for civilians who choose to stay or are unable to evacuate from designated areas.

    Repeated displacement is also making it increasingly difficult for organizations, already contending with Israel’s near-total blockade, to provide aid and services to those who were forced to leave their homes with next to nothing.

    Palestinians return to eastern Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, after Israeli forces pulled out on 30 July (Omar Ashtawy APA images)

    The Palestinian health ministry in Gaza said that it was no longer able to restore the functionality of the Gaza European Hospital in Khan Younis after an Israeli evacuation order was issued on 27 July.

    The Palestinian Civil Defense warned that overcrowding among displaced people in Gaza, who have insufficient access to water and sanitation, was leading to the proliferation of diseases, including conditions affecting children’s skin.

    By early July, the World Health Organization had recorded nearly a million cases of acute respiratory infection, while other illnesses such as diarrhea, acute jaundice and cases of suspected mumps and meningitis, as well as scabies and lice, skin rashes and chicken pox are spreading among the population.

    The UN health agency said on Tuesday that it was very likely that polio has infected Palestinians in Gaza after the health ministry in the territory declared a polio epidemic across the coastal enclave on Monday.

    Detection of the virus in sewage samples collected in Gaza represents “a setback” against efforts to completely eradicate the disease worldwide, Christian Lindmeier, a World Health Organization official, said on Tuesday.

    Al Mezan, a Palestinian human rights group based in Gaza, warned that more than one million children in the territory “are at risk of dying if not vaccinated” for the highly infectious virus.

    “To prevent thousands of deaths, the international community must ensure Israel immediately ends its genocide, including the weaponization of water and sanitation facilities,” the rights group added.

    According to WHO, the disease mainly affects children under the age of 5 and one in 200 infections “leads to irreversible paralysis.” Five to 10 percent of those paralyzed die “when their breathing muscles become immobilized.”

    Collapse of essential systems

    With the collapse of Gaza’s solid waste management system, conditions are ripe for the disastrous spread of diseases transmitted through contamination such as polio and hepatitis A – there have been 40,000 diagnosed cases of the latter since October.

    Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has seen a drop in polio vaccination rates in Gaza from 99 percent to 89 percent, according to a UNICEF spokesperson. The director of the World Health Organization announced that it was sending more than a million polio vaccines to Gaza to be administered to children “in the coming weeks,” UN News reported.

    The virus, “transmitted by person-to-person spread mainly through the fecal-oral route,” according to WHO, is less frequently transmitted through contaminated water or food.

    The “can emerge in areas where poor vaccination coverage allows the weakened form of the orally taken vaccine virus strain to mutate into a stronger version,” UN News added.

    The vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 “had been identified at six locations in sewage samples collected last month from Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah – two Gaza cities left in ruins by nearly 10 months of intense Israeli bombardment.”

    The spread of disease and epidemics is a predictable result of Israel’s genocidal military campaign, if not the intention.

    In yet another case of Israeli soldiers destroying civilian infrastructure for no military purpose, soldiers recently recorded themselves detonating Canada well, the main water facility in Rafah, southern Gaza.

    The Tel Aviv daily Haaretz reported on Monday that the facility “was destroyed last week with the approval of the commander of the soldiers … but without the approval of senior officers.”

    But blaming lower-ranking soldiers may be an attempt to deter international courts scrutiny of more senior military personnel, while the pattern of behavior on the ground indicates that troops are ordered to destroy essential civilian infrastructure for no military purpose – a war crime.

    Destroying water treatment plants is a war crime in its own right. Doing so in full knowledge that it will contribute to the spread of polio is evidence of genocidal intent. https://t.co/38PkBD4043

    — Heidi Matthews (@Heidi__Matthews) July 27, 2024

    Younis Tirawi, writing for Dropsite News, recounted that Giora Eiland, an adviser to Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant, described in October a strategy to destroy the ability of Palestinians in Gaza to pump and purify water within Gaza.

    Monther Shoblak, the head of the water utility in Gaza, told Tirawi that the Canada well facility had remained functional until Israel’s ground invasion of Rafah in early May, as solar panels allowed it to operate despite Israel cutting off the supply of electricity to the territory in October.

    Israel destroyed 30 water wells in the south this month alone, and displaced people have been forced to shelter in overcrowded conditions without suitable hygiene infrastructure or access to sufficient clean water, fuel, food and medicine.

    The international charity Oxfam said earlier this month that “Israel damaged or destroyed five water and sanitation sites every three days since the start of this war,” reducing the amount of water available in Gaza by 94 percent to a mere 4.74 liters per person – “less than a single toilet flush.”

    Israel attacks Beirut

    Israel bombed southern Beirut on Tuesday, with its military claiming that it targeted Fuad Shukr, a senior Hizballah commander. Israel said that Shukr was killed but Arabic-language media said his fate remained unknown late Tuesday.

    The area around Hizballah’s Shura Council in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of the Lebanese capital was also hit, that country’s state news agency reported.

    Lebanon’s health ministry said that a woman and two children were killed, though “the search for more missing persons under the rubble continues.”

    The apartment building in south Beirut has been decimated by what is said to be 3 missiles from an IDF drone. The strike that killed Hamas' deputy chairman Saleh al-Arouri in January left the building standing. This was meant to destroy it and take everybody with it. pic.twitter.com/OzSSD2ER3n

    — Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) July 30, 2024

    The Beirut strike took down a whole residential building, and the scale of destruction may have been intended to reinforce the threats made by Israeli leaders to inflict the same genocidal violence in Lebanon that it has in Gaza.

    +The strike in Beirut on Tuesday was an anticipated “retaliation” from Tel Aviv after a projectile killed 12 children at a sports field in Majdal Shams, a city in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights on Saturday. Israel blamed Hizballah but the Lebanese resistance group denied having any connection to the deadly blast.

    Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, accused Hizballah of crossing a red line, though it is highly unlikely that the Lebanese resistance group would have deliberately targeted Majdal Shams.

    A building targeted in an Israeli strike in the southern suburb of Beirut, 30 July (Bilal Jawich Xinhua News Agency)

    Amal Saad, an expert on Hizballah, said that since 8 October, the group “has refrained from targeting Israeli civilians, much less Syrian Druze.”

    “The strong support for the resistance movement among this community, which lives under Israeli occupation, makes it illogical for Hizballah to risk striking in this vicinity,” she added.

    Targeting civilians, whether Syrian or Israeli, “wouldn’t be strategically beneficial for Hizballah when it would inevitably lead to all out war – a war which Hizballah has been very keen to avoid as demonstrated by its sub-threshold responses to Israeli strikes on Beirut and on civilians” in Lebanon, according to Saad.

    She added the group has been careful to “avoid giving Israel any pretext for waging war” but “it’s entirely expected” that Israel would exploit the tragedy “in order to deflect attention away from its daily massacres of Palestinian children” in Gaza.

    Not “a single drop of blood”

    Majdal Shams residents chanted “murderer, murderer” at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he attempted to visit the site of the deadly strike on Monday.

    After Netanyahu left Majdal Shams, local residents verbally attacked the head of the municipality, who invited Netanyahu to the town. People yelled at him "traitor, dog" and more. https://t.co/RIbUrWnZ7A

    — B.M. (@ireallyhateyou) July 29, 2024

    Syrians reeling from the unprecedented mass casualty event in Majdal Shams issued a statement rejecting “that a single drop of blood be shed under the name of revenge for our children.”

    After the deaths in Majdal Shams, Israeli media reported that Netanyahu canceled the exit of around 150 children from Gaza for medical treatment in the United Arab Emirates “for fear of public backlash,” the human rights group Gisha said.

    In response to a petition from human rights groups, Israel’s high court on Sunday ordered the government “to inform it of its progress toward implementing a permanent mechanism for the medical evacuation of sick and injured Gazans,” The Times of Israel [reported]((https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-court-gives-government-7-days-to-come…).

    Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization, announced that “85 sick and severely injured people,” including 35 children, were evacuated from Gaza to Abu Dhabi for specialized care on Tuesday.

    “It is the largest medical evacuation since October 2023,” he said, adding that “63 family members and caregivers accompanied the patients.”

    The Palestinian Center for Human Rights said on Sunday that the ongoing closure of Gaza’s crossings, preventing “the travel of urgent and lifesaving cases,” makes clear “Israel’s commission of genocide against the people of the Gaza Strip.”

    “Those who have not been killed by Israel’s war machine are not spared by the complete Israeli siege and closure on Gaza,” the rights group added, “leaving thousands of wounded and sick doomed to certain death.”

    Death is all but guaranteed due to Israel’s “deliberate destruction and collapse of the healthcare system and the weakening of its remaining lifesaving resources,” according to PCHR.

    Around 14,000 sick and injured patients, most of them children and older people, require care that is not available in Gaza.

    PCHR estimates that hundreds of ill people have already died due to lack of access to medical treatment but there are “no statistics available in this regard due to disruptions in official medical monitoring and documentation systems.”

    • Article first published in The Electronic Intifada

    The post Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Tehran after Israel bombs Beirut first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Maureen Clare Murphy.

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    Will Israel Start a Regional War? Hamas Leader Killed in Iran, Hezbollah Commander Killed in Beirut https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/will-israel-start-a-regional-war-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-hezbollah-commander-killed-in-beirut/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/will-israel-start-a-regional-war-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-hezbollah-commander-killed-in-beirut/#respond Wed, 31 Jul 2024 17:13:03 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=26b6c9361d0b31e7f7d090b133cbfedf
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Will Israel Start a Regional War? Hamas Leader Killed in Iran, Hezbollah Commander Targeted in Beirut https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/will-israel-start-a-regional-war-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-hezbollah-commander-targeted-in-beirut/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/will-israel-start-a-regional-war-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-hezbollah-commander-targeted-in-beirut/#respond Wed, 31 Jul 2024 12:14:12 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=3431ef1e149e944617815d89795a956a Seg1 haniyeportrait

    Fears of all-out war in the Middle East are growing after top Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on Wednesday. Haniyeh was in Iran for the inauguration of the country’s new president. Iran and Hamas both blamed Israel, which has not officially claimed responsibility but had previously vowed to kill Haniyeh and other top Hamas leaders over the October 7 attack. The assassination came less than 24 hours after Israel took credit for killing Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an airstrike on Beirut. For more on the significance of the assassination, we host a roundtable discussion with Haaretz columnist Gideon Levy in Tel Aviv; international politics professor Karim Makdisi, who teaches at American University of Beirut; and Palestinian American journalist Rami Khouri in Boston. “Killing Haniyeh really is a sign from the Israelis that they are not interested in negotiating the ceasefire, the hostage release, prisoner exchanges. They just want to assert Zionist Jewish supremacy in all of Palestine and control the powers around the region,” says Khouri.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/will-israel-start-a-regional-war-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-hezbollah-commander-targeted-in-beirut/feed/ 0 486574
    Assassinated – Ismail Haniyeh, the Palestinian refugee who became the political leader of Hamas https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/assassinated-ismail-haniyeh-the-palestinian-refugee-who-became-the-political-leader-of-hamas/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/31/assassinated-ismail-haniyeh-the-palestinian-refugee-who-became-the-political-leader-of-hamas/#respond Wed, 31 Jul 2024 08:34:36 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=104341 The Palestine Chronicle

    Ismail Haniyeh,  a prominent Palestinian political leader and the head of Hamas’ political bureau, has been assassinated today in an Israeli airstrike on Tehran.

    Haniyeh was in the Iranian capital for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

    Both Hamas and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirmed his death and announced ongoing investigations into the incident.

    • READ MORE: Israel war on Gaza live: Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran
    • Other Israeli War on Gaza reports

    Commentators have said this assassination and the “reckless Israeli behaviour” of continuously targeting civilians in Gaza would lead to the region slipping into chaos and undermine the chances of peace.

    A Palestinian refugee
    Ismail Abdel Salam Ahmed Haniyeh was born on 23 January 1962 in the Shati refugee camp in the Gaza Strip.

    His family originated from the village of Al-Jura, near the city of Asqalan, which was mostly destroyed and completely ethnically cleansed during the Nakba in 1948.

    Haniyeh completed his early education in United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) schools and graduated from Al-Azhar Institute before earning a BA in Arabic literature from the Islamic University of Gaza in 1987.

    During his university years, he was active in the Student Union Council and later held various positions at the Islamic University, eventually becoming its dean in 1992.

    Following his release from an Israeli prison in 1997, Haniyeh became the head of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin’s office.

    Political life
    Haniyeh’s political experience included multiple arrests by Israeli authorities during the First Intifada, with charges related to his involvement with the Palestinian Resistance movement Hamas.

    He was exiled to southern Lebanon in 1992 but returned to Gaza after the Oslo Accords.

    Haniyeh led the “Change and Reform List”, which won the majority in the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council elections, leading to his appointment as the head of the Palestinian government in February 2006.

    Despite being dismissed by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in June 2007 after the Hamas military wing took control of Gaza, Haniyeh continued to lead the government in Gaza.

    He later played a role in national reconciliation efforts, which led to the formation of a unity government in June 2014.

    Haniyeh was elected head of the Hamas political bureau in May 2017.

    A warning from Iran over the assassination of Hamas politIcal leader Ismael Haniyeh
    A warning from Iran over the assassination of Hamas politIcal leader Ismael Haniyeh while staying in Tehran as a “guest” of the newly inaugurated Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Image: AJ screenshot APR

    Al-Aqsa flood
    On 7 October 2023, the Al-Qassam Brigades, led by Mohammed Deif, launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation against Israel.

    In the genocidal Israel war that has followed in the past nine months, Haniyeh suffered personal losses, including the killings of several family members due to Israeli airstrikes.

    Republished from The Palestine Chronicle with permission. The Chronicle is edited by Palestinian journalist and media consultant Ramzy Baroud, author of The Last Earth: A Palestine Story, who visited New Zealand in 2019.

     


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    J.D. Vance Criticizes Biden’s Support for Iraq War in 2003 But Pushes Hawkish Policy on China & Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/18/j-d-vance-criticizes-bidens-support-for-iraq-war-in-2003-but-pushes-hawkish-policy-on-china-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/18/j-d-vance-criticizes-bidens-support-for-iraq-war-in-2003-but-pushes-hawkish-policy-on-china-iran-2/#respond Thu, 18 Jul 2024 16:08:08 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=d4ac6f85dae2068068bef277f0a444f9
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/18/j-d-vance-criticizes-bidens-support-for-iraq-war-in-2003-but-pushes-hawkish-policy-on-china-iran-2/feed/ 0 484609
    J.D. Vance Criticizes Biden’s Support for Iraq War in 2003 But Pushes Hawkish Policy on China & Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/18/j-d-vance-criticizes-bidens-support-for-iraq-war-in-2003-but-pushes-hawkish-policy-on-china-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/18/j-d-vance-criticizes-bidens-support-for-iraq-war-in-2003-but-pushes-hawkish-policy-on-china-iran/#respond Thu, 18 Jul 2024 12:49:14 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=c1fb717e3f82c5a7893024529aaaf37b Seg2 guest trump jd split

    We continue to look at the record of Donald Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, with a focus on his foreign policy actions, with Matt Duss of the Center for International Policy, former adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders. Vance is “very aligned with Trump,” says Duss, such as in his support of the Abraham Accords, the Arab-Israeli normalization deal signed under the Trump administration that sought to increase Israel’s power in the region at the expense of Palestinian rights.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/18/j-d-vance-criticizes-bidens-support-for-iraq-war-in-2003-but-pushes-hawkish-policy-on-china-iran/feed/ 0 484597
    U.S. divide and rule no more… Washington’s Gulf allies embrace Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/13/u-s-divide-and-rule-no-more-washingtons-gulf-allies-embrace-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/13/u-s-divide-and-rule-no-more-washingtons-gulf-allies-embrace-iran/#respond Sat, 13 Jul 2024 05:57:00 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=151918 In a sign of major geopolitical realignment, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states sent warm congratulations to Iran on its newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. Saudi King Salman welcomed the news of Iran’s election winner last weekend and said he hoped that the two Persian Gulf nations would continue developing their relations “between our […]

    The post U.S. divide and rule no more… Washington’s Gulf allies embrace Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    In a sign of major geopolitical realignment, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states sent warm congratulations to Iran on its newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian.

    Saudi King Salman welcomed the news of Iran’s election winner last weekend and said he hoped that the two Persian Gulf nations would continue developing their relations “between our brotherly people”.

    That olive branch from Saudi Arabia to Iran is an unprecedented diplomatic development – one that will trigger alarm in Washington whose primary goal in the Middle East has been to isolate Iran from its neighbors.

    There were similar cordial official messages from Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain. Together with Saudi Arabia, these oil-rich states comprise the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). There is much talk now of the Gulf Arab bloc normalizing relations with its Persian neighbor.

    For his part, President Pezeshkian – a heart surgeon by profession – says he wants to prioritize peaceful regional relations.

    For decades, since the Iranian revolution in 1979, the Gulf Arab states have viewed the Islamic Republic with deep suspicion and hostility. For one thing, there is the sectarian tension between Shia Islam as professed mainly by Iran and the Sunni Islam that dominates the Gulf Arab states.

    There is also the visceral fear among the Arab monarchies that the revolutionary politics espoused by Iran might infect their masses thereby threatening the rigid autocracies and their system of hereditary rule. The fact that Iran holds elections stands in stark contrast to the Gulf kingdoms ruled by royal families. So much for President Joe Biden’s mantra about the U.S. supposedly supporting democracy over autocracy.

    The United States and its Western allies, in particular, the former colonial power Britain, have exploited the tensions in the Persian Gulf to exercise a divide-and-rule policy. The British are past masters at playing the sectarian game in all their former colonies from Ireland to Myanmar and everywhere in between, including the Middle East.

    Taking a leaf out of that imperialist playbook, Washington has historically fuelled fears of Iranian expansionism. This has ensured Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors remain under U.S. “protection” which is vital for maintaining the petrodollar system that underpins the American dollar as the international reserve currency. Without the petrodollar privileges, the U.S. economy would implode.

    Secondly, the Gulf is an eye-watering huge market for American weapons exports, from overrated Patriot air defense systems to overpriced fighter jets.

    In short, the policy of the U.S. and its Western allies was and is to promote a Cold War in the Gulf between the Arab states and Iran.

    The schismatic animosity cannot be overstated. The Arab monarchies were habitually paranoid about Iran infiltrating their societies. Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni rulers conducted severe repressive policies towards their Shia populations.

    In 2010, an explosive exposé by Julian Assange’s Wikileaks organization showed the then Saudi ruler King Abdullah pleading with the United States to launch military attacks on Iran. The Saudi monarch described Iran as “the head of the snake” and he implored the U.S. to decapitate the Islamic Republic.

    Fast forward to the present Saudi ruler, King Salman, a half-brother of the deceased Abdullah, who is now calling for fraternal relations with Iran – as are other Gulf Arab states.

    Saudi heir to the throne, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also extended his congratulations to Iran’s new president and went further to propose regional security cooperation. The Saudi heir reportedly told President Pezeshkian: “I affirm my keenness on developing and deepening the relations that unite our countries and peoples and serve our mutual interests.”

    This is an astounding turnaround for positive relations. Crown Prince MbS was the main instigator of Saudi’s disastrous war on Yemen in 2015 which was prompted by his fear of Iran’s alliance with the Houthis in Saudi’s southern neighbor following the landmark international nuclear deal with Tehran.

    Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Sunni states were also instrumental in pursuing the U.S.-led covert war for regime change in Syria against Iranian ally Bashar al Assad. That proxy war effort was a defeat for the U.S. side after Russia and Iran stepped in to defend Syria.

    What’s happening here is a major geopolitical realignment. Russia, Iran, China and others have put a decisive marker down spelling the end of U.S. and Western hegemony.

    It is clear that the U.S.-led so-called “rules-based global order” is nothing more than a dead-end scam imposed on the rest of the world. All empirical evidence shows that the primary enemy of international peace and security is the U.S. hegemon and its Western vassals.

    The U.S.-instigated proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is recklessly pushing the world to the abyss of a nuclear catastrophe. Elsewhere, in the Middle East with the Western-backed Israeli genocide in Gaza and the relentless belligerence of NATO in the Asia-Pacific toward China, it is increasingly evident what is the source of international conflict and chaos – U.S.-led Western imperialism.

    The Gulf Arab leaders may not be reacting out of democratic sensibilities. But they must surely know that the writing is on the wall for American hegemony and its destructive death wish to survive at all costs.

    The world is changing dramatically to a new multipolar order where the majority of nations are trying to come to a peaceful coexistence.

    Last year, China brokered a historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. All of these parties know that the U.S. disorder of hegemonic Cold War division is unsustainable and ultimately self-defeating for those who adhere to it.

    The Saudis know that the Eurasian economic engine is driving the world economy and the embrace of the Global South of a multipolar order is hammering nails into the coffin of Western hegemony.

    Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states are signing up as new members of the Shanghai Cooperation Council which also includes Russia, China, Iran, India and Pakistan, among others.

    King Salman and other Arab leaders are finally realizing that Uncle Sam’s patronage is like putting a loaded gun to your head. As that old American war criminal Henry Kissinger once reputedly remarked with his trademark cynicism: being an enemy of the U.S. can be dangerous but to be an ally of Uncle Sam is absolutely fatal.

    The days of Washington and its Western minions playing divide and rule are over because they have discredited themselves irreparably.

    • First published in Strategic Culture Foundation

    The post U.S. divide and rule no more… Washington’s Gulf allies embrace Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Finian Cunningham.

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    All Roads Lead to War https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/11/all-roads-lead-to-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/11/all-roads-lead-to-war/#respond Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:57:57 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=151854 Yogi Berra, famous as a baseball catcher and a wandering philosopher, is credited with the statement, “If you come to a fork in the road, take it.” Uncle Sam, famous for initiating endless wars and philosophizing about democracy and human rights follows Yogi’s pronouncement in only one direction ─ the road to war. The endless […]

    The post All Roads Lead to War first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Yogi Berra, famous as a baseball catcher and a wandering philosopher, is credited with the statement, “If you come to a fork in the road, take it.” Uncle Sam, famous for initiating endless wars and philosophizing about democracy and human rights follows Yogi’s pronouncement in only one direction ─ the road to war.

    The endless wars, one in almost every year of the American Republic, are shadowed by words of peace, democracy, and human rights. Happening far from U.S. soil, their effects are more visual than visceral, appearing as images on a television screen. The larger post-World War II conflagrations, those that followed the “war to end all wars,” in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan have not permanently resolved the issues that promoted the wars. From their littered battlefields remain the old contestants and from an embittered landscape new contestants emerge to oppose the U.S. “world order.” The U.S. intelligence community said, “it views four countries as posing the main national security challenges in the coming year: China, followed by Russia, Iran and North Korea.” Each challenge has a fork in the road. Each fork taken is leading to war.

    China
    “China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas — especially economically, militarily, and technologically — and is pushing to change global norms,” says a report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Interpretation ─ China has disrupted the United States’ world hegemony and military superiority. Only the U.S. is allowed to have hegemony and the military superiority that assures the hegemony.

    Foreign Policy (FP) magazine’s article, “How Primed for War Is China,” goes further: “The likelihood of war with China may be the single-most important question in international affairs today.”

    If China uses military force against Taiwan or another target in the Western Pacific, the result could be war with the United States—a fight between two nuclear-armed giants brawling for hegemony in that region and the wider world. If China attacked amid ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world would be consumed by interlocking conflicts across Eurasia’s key regions, a global conflagration unlike anything since World War II. How worried should we be?

    No worry about that. Beijing will not pursue war. Why would it? It is winning and winners have no need to go to war. The concern is that the continuous trashing will lead the PRC to trash its treasury holdings that finance U.S. trade debt (already started), use reserves to purchase huge chunks of United States assets, diminish its hefty agricultural imports from Yankee farms, and enforce its ban of exports of rare earth extraction and separation technologies  (China produces 60 percent of the world’s rare earth materials and processes nearly 90 percent). The U.S. should worry that, by not cooperating, the Red Dragon may decide it is better not to bother with Washington and use its overwhelming industrial power, with which the U.S. cannot compete, to sink the U.S. economy.

    China does not chide the U.S. about its urban blight, mass shootings, drug problem, riots in Black neighborhoods, enforcing the Caribbean as an American lake, campus revolution, and media control by special interests. However, U.S. administrations insist on being involved in China’s internal affairs — Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, South China Sea, Belt and Road, Uyghurs — and never shows how this involvement benefits the U.S. people.

    U.S. interference in China’s internal affairs has not changed anything! The United States is determined to halt China’s progress to economic dominance and to no avail. China will continue to do what China wants to do. With an industrious, capable, and educated population, which is four times the size of the U.S. population, arable land 75 percent of that of the U.S. (295,220,748 arable acres compared to 389,767,633 arable acres), and a multiple of resources that the world needs, China, by default will eventually emerge, if it has not already, as the world’s economic superpower.

    What does the U.S. expect from its STOP the unstoppable China policy? Where can its rhetoric and aggressive actions lead but to confrontation? The only worthwhile confrontation is America confronting itself. The party is over and it’s time to call it a day, a new day and a new America ─ not going to war to protect its interests but resting comfortably by sharing its interests.

    Russia
    Western politicos responded to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comment, “The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century,” with boisterous laughter. Go to Ukraine and observe the tragedy and learn that Putin’s remark has been too lightly regarded. It’s not a matter of right and wrong. It’s a matter of life and death. The nation, which made the greatest contribution in defeating Nazi Germany and endured the most physical and mental losses, suffered the most territorial, social, and economic forfeitures in post-World War II.

    From a Russian perspective, Crimea had been a vital part of Russia since the time of Catherine the Great ─ a warm water port and outlet to the Black Sea. Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev’s attachment of Crimea to The Ukraine Republic was an administrative move, and as long as Ukraine allowed Russia free entry to Crimea, Moscow did not seek annexation. To the Russia government of year 2014, the Euromaidan Revolution changed the arrangement. Putin easily rationalized annexing a Ukraine region whose population was 2/3 Russian, considered a part of Russia, and was under attack by Ukrainian nationalists.

    Maintaining Ukraine in the Russian orbit, or at least, preventing it from becoming a NATO ally, was a natural position for any Russian government, a mini Monroe Doctrine that neutralizes bordering nations and impedes foreign intrusions. Change in Ukraine’s status forecast a change in Russia’s position, a certain prediction of war. Ukraine and Russia were soul mates; their parting was a trauma that could only be erased by seizure of the Maiden after the Euromaidan.

    Ukraine has lost the war; at least they cannot win, but don’t tell anybody. Its forces are defeated and depleted and cannot mount an offensive against the capably defended Russian captured territory. Its people and economy will continue to suffer and soldiers will die in the small battles that will continue and continue. Ukraine’s hope is having Putin leave by a coup, voluntarily, or involuntarily and having a new Russian administration that is compliant with Zelensky’s expectations. The former is possible; the latter is not possible. Russian military will not allow its sacrifices to be reversed.

    For Ukrainians, it is a “zero sum” battle; they can only lose and cannot dictate how much they lose. A truce is impeded by Putin’s ambition to incorporate Odessa into Russia and link Russia through captured Ukraine territory to Moldova’s breakaway Republic of Transnistria, which the Russian president expects will become a Russian satellite, similar to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This leaves Ukraine with two choices: (1) Forget the European Union, forget NATO, and remain a nation loosely allied with Russia, or (2) Solicit support from the United States and Europe and eventually start a World War that destroys everybody.

    As of July 8, 2024, Ukraine and United States are headed for the latter fork in the road. After entering into war, the contestants find no way, except to end it with a more punishing war. That cannot happen. Russians crossing the Dnieper River and capturing Odessa is also unlikely. The visions of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine clash with reality. Their visions and their presence are the impediments to resolving the conflict. Both must retire to their palatial homes and write their memoirs. A world tour featuring the two in a debate is a promising You Tube event.

    Commentators characterized the Soviet Union as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. After it became scrambled eggs, Russia’s characterization became simplified; no matter what Putin’s Russia does, it is viewed as a cold, icy, and heartless land that preys on its neighbors and causes misery to the world. Apply a little warmth, defrost the ice, and Russia has another appearance.

    Iran
    Ponder and ponder, why is the U.S. eager to assist Israel and act aggressively toward Iran? What has Iran done to the U.S. or anybody? The US wants Iran to eschew nuclear and ballistic weapons, but the provocative approach indicates other purposes — completely alienate Iran, destroy its military capability, and bring Tehran to collapse and submission. Accomplishing the far-reaching goals will not affect the average American, increase US defense posture, or diminish the continuous battering of the helpless faces of the Middle East. The strategy mostly pleases Israel and Saudi Arabia, who have engineered it, share major responsibility for the Middle East turmoil, and are using mighty America to subdue the principal antagonist to their malicious activities.

    Although Iran has not sent a single soldier cross its borders to invade another nation and has insufficient military power to contest a United States’ reprisal, the Islamic republic is accused of trying to conquer the entire Middle East. Because rebellions from oppressed Shi’a factions occur in Bahrain and Yemen, Iran is accused of using surrogates to extend their power ─ guilt by association. Because Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah have extended friendship (who does not want to have friends), Iran, who cannot even sell its pistachio nuts to these nations, is accused of controlling them.

    Iran is an independent nation with its own concepts for governing. The Islamic Republic might not be a huggable nation, but compared to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, it is a model democracy and a theocratic lightweight. Except for isolate incidents, Iran has never attacked anyone, doesn’t indicate it intends to attack anyone, and doesn’t have the capability to wage war against a major nation.

    Defined as Iran, the world’s greatest sponsor of terrorism, the Iranian government has not been involved in terrorist acts against the United States, or proven to have engaged in international terrorism. There have been some accusations concerning one incident in Argentina, one in the U.S. and a few in Europe against dissidents who cause havoc in Iran, but these have been isolated incidents. Two accusations go back thirty to forty years, and none are associated with a particular organization.

    If the US honestly wants to have Iran promise never to be a warring nation, it would approach the issues with a question, “What will it take for you (Iran) never to pursue weapons of mass destruction?” Assuredly, the response would include provisions that require the U.S. to no longer assist the despotic Saudi Kingdom in its oppression of minorities and opposition, in its export of terrorists, and interference in Yemen. The response would propose that the U.S. eliminate financial, military and cooperative support to Israel’s theft of Palestinian lands, oppressive conditions imposed on Palestinians, and daily killings of Palestinian people, and combat Israel’s expansionist plans.

    The correct question soliciting a formative response and leading to decisive US actions resolves two situations and benefits the U.S. — fear of Iran developing weapons of mass destruction is relieved and the Middle East is pointed in a direction that achieves justice, peace, and stability for its peoples. The road to war is a tool for Israel’s objectives. The U.S. continues on that road, willingly sacrificing Americans for the benefit of the Zionist state. Tyranny and treason in the American government and the American people either are not observant or just don’t care.

    Democratic Republic of North Korea (DPRK)
    Nowhere and seemingly everywhere, North Korea stands at a fork in the road. The small and unimportant state that wants to be left alone and remain uncontaminated by global germs, is constantly pushed into responding to military maneuvers at its border, threats of annihilation, and insults to its leaders and nation. From United States’ actions and press coverage, North Korea assumes the world stage as a dynamic and mighty nation and exerts a power that forces respect and response. How can a nation, constantly described as an insular and “hermit kingdom,” cast a shadow that reaches 5000 miles to the United States mainland and speak with a voice that generates a worldwide listening audience?

    The world faces a contemporary DPRK, a DPRK that enters the third decade of the 21st century with a changed perspective from the DPRK that entered the century. Rehashing of old grievances, reciting past DPRK policies that caused horrific happenings to its people, and purposeful misunderstanding of contemporary North Korea lead to misdirected policies and unwarranted problems. Purposeful misunderstanding comes from exaggerations of negative actions, from not proving these negative actions, from evaluating actions from agendas and opinions and not from facts, from selecting and guessing the facts, and from approaching matters from different perspectives and consciences.

    Instead of heading away from North Korea, the U.S. speeds toward a confrontation and North Korea makes preparations — developing nuclear weapons and delivery systems and signing a mutual defense pact with Russia. The U.S. State department paves the road to war and, as a favor to its antagonist, induces it to develop the offensive and defensive capabilities to wage the war. Apparently, the U.S. defense department has orders not to attack the DPRK before it has ICBMs and warheads that can demolish the U.S. Unlike Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, let’s make this a fair fight.

    North and South Vietnam have only one problem ─ U.S. interference in their internal affairs. Stop the joint maneuvers and remove the U.S. troops and the North and South will learn how to get along and realize they must get along. If they do not find friendship and engage in hostilities, they will resolve the issue in a way that badly affects both and does not affect the U.S. Why internationalize an issue that is national and can be contained? Why make the U.S. land subjected to possible attack because two miscreants cannot behave?

    North Korea might go down in history as the nation that awakened the world to the consequences of global saber rattling. It has shown that the nuclear world can become one big poker game, in which a challenge to a bluff can be an ‘all win’ and ‘all lose’ proposition. Which gambler is willing to play that game when an ‘all win’ doesn’t add much more to what the gambler already has, and an ‘all lose’ means leaving the person with nothing? The odds greatly favor America, but the wager return is not worth taking the bet, despite the odds. Keep it sweet and simple, let the Koreans settle their problems, and we will see doves flying over the Korean peninsula.

    The Road to War
    The U.S. does not develop foreign policies from facts and reality; they are developed from made-up stories that fit agendas. Those who guide the agendas solicit support from the population by providing  narratives that rile the American public and define its enemies. This diversion from facts and truth is responsible for the counterproductive wars fought by the U.S., for Middle East turmoil, for a world confronted with terrorism, and for the contemporary horrors in Ukraine and Gaza. U.S. foreign policy is not the cause of all the problems, but it intensifies them and rarely solves any of them.

    Because violence and military challenges are being used to resolve the escalating conflicts throughout the globe, should not more simplified and less aggressive approaches be surveyed and determined if they can serve to resolve the world conflagrations. Features of that determination modify current U.S. thinking:

    (1) Rather than concluding nations want to confront U.S. military power, realize nations fear military power and desire peaceful relations with the powerful United States.

    (2) Rather than attempting to steer adversaries to a lose position, steer them to a beneficial position.

    (3) Rather than denying nations the basic requirements for survival, assist their populations in times of need.

    (4) Rather than provoking nations to military buildup and action, assuage them into feeling comfortable and not threatened.

    (5) Rather than challenging by military threat, show willingness to negotiate to a mutually agreed solution.

    (6) Rather than interfering in domestic disputes, recognize the sovereign rights of all nations to solve their own problems.

    (7) Rather than relying on incomplete information, purposeful myths, and misinterpretations, learn to understand the vagaries and seemingly irrational attitudes of sovereign nations whose cultures produce different mindsets.

    Recent elections in the United Kingdom indicate a shift from adventurism to attention with domestic problems. The Labor Party win over a Conservative government that perceived Ukraine as fighting its war and the election advances of the far right National Rally and the far-left Unbowed Parties in France show a trend away from war. A win by Donald Trump, whose principal attraction is his supra-nationalist antiwar policy, will emphasize that trend and indicate that the most disliked of two disliked is due to the abhorrence to war.

    From ever war to war no more.
    A pleasant thought
    that U.S. administrations thwart.
    All roads still lead to war.

    The post All Roads Lead to War first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    How Mossad Plotted to Assassinate Iranian President? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/06/how-mossad-plotted-to-assassinate-iranian-president/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/07/06/how-mossad-plotted-to-assassinate-iranian-president/#respond Sat, 06 Jul 2024 13:56:59 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=151709 Despite losing the presidential debate to Republican candidate Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s electoral campaign appears to be in full swing now. The founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, has been set free after a plea deal in order to woo progressive voters. In Gaza, Biden is simultaneously playing the role of arsonist and the firefighter. […]

    The post How Mossad Plotted to Assassinate Iranian President? first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Despite losing the presidential debate to Republican candidate Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s electoral campaign appears to be in full swing now. The founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, has been set free after a plea deal in order to woo progressive voters. In Gaza, Biden is simultaneously playing the role of arsonist and the firefighter.

    Last October, he sent aircraft-carriers and nuclear submarines in support of Israel and provided military assistance to the tune of billions of dollars, including bombs, missiles and aircraft, to slaughter hapless Palestinians. But at the same time, he built a shoddy pier to let humanitarian aid flow, and persuaded Netanyahu to let him at least create optics of being a neutral arbiter while he is the main enabler of Zionists’ genocide of Palestinians.

    The only theater where the purported peacenik [Biden a peacenik? — DV ed] can’t do much is the Ukraine War because the Pentagon’s military brass won’t let him squander the opportunity to destabilize arch-rival Russia. Therefore he would have to convince gullible neoliberals by deploying Orwellian jargon that war is peace, bombs are rose petals, America’s adversaries are recalcitrant villains, while the United States is the only bastion of democracy and civil liberties under the thumb of corporate interests and the deep state.

    As far as the Zionist regime’s genocidal war in Gaza is concerned, this isn’t even a war but downright genocide of unarmed Palestinians, as war is between two comparable armies, whereas in the Gaza Holocaust, a regional power backed by the world’s most powerful military force is committing merciless ethnic cleansing of hapless Palestinians.

    Incidentally, the death toll of the savage slaughter is grossly understated by monopoly media for ulterior motives. 38,000 is just the number of dead bodies counted by aid workers, whereas the exact death toll is well above 100,000, as most dead bodies are still buried beneath the rubble of Gaza City, Khan Younis and Rafah and would take months, if not years, to recover after the rubble is cleared.

    Besides the Biden admin’s reluctance to start another devastating Middle East war in the election year and eliminating Biden’s chances of winning a second term, another reason the American deep state is also hesitant to greenlight Israel’s ground invasion of Hezbollah’s bastion in southern Lebanon is that all the military resources of the Pentagon are currently being consumed by the protracted proxy war in east Ukraine.

    Moreover, the Biden admin is also concerned that mounting a military offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon might provoke Iran to mount retaliatory missile and drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, such as the Abqaiq oil installation attack in September 2019, [This attack on the Abqaiq facility is usually ascribed to the Houthis in Yemen — DV ed] thus disrupting global energy supply in the election year and eliminating Biden’s chances of winning the elections.

    However, Israel’s opportunistic policymakers are yearning to draw Iran into Gaza War, thus creating a pretext for the expansion of the war in southern Lebanon in order to cash the opportunity to dismantle the Iran-Hezbollah nexus once and for all, posing a security threat to Israel’s northern borders.

    Even though by the mainstream media’s own accounts the Shiite leadership of Iran and Hezbollah wasn’t even aware of Sunni Palestinian liberation movement Hamas’ October 7 assault. It’s worth pointing out that Hamas’ main patrons are oil-rich Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt, not Iran, as frequently alleged by the mainstream disinformation campaign. In fact, Hamas as a political movement is the Palestinian offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.

    Notwithstanding, while craven Arab petro-sheikhs, under the thumb of duplicitous American masters enabling the Zionist regime’s atrocious genocide of unarmed Palestinians, were squabbling over when would be the opportune moment to recognize Israel and establish diplomatic and trade ties, the Iran-led resistance axis, comprising Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ansarallah in Yemen, has claimed stellar victories in the battlefield against Israel.

    As far as Israel’s airstrike at Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1 is concerned, killing two top commanders of the IRGC, it is the declared state policy of the Zionist regime of medieval assassins to use deception and subterfuge in order to eliminate formidable adversaries if it lacks the courage to cross swords with them in the battlefield.

    It’s worth noting that a tip-off from the Mossad led to the cowardly assassination of Iran’s celebrated warrior Haj Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, after Haj Soleimani gave the Zionist regime and its American patrons a bloody nose in Syria’s proxy war.

    Nonetheless, after the consulate airstrike, Iran retaliated by mounting the first direct airstrike on Israel with over 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles on April 13. The airstrike was codenamed Operation True Promise, or Vada-e-Sadiq in Persian.

    In response, Israel vowed to avenge the direct Iranian airstrike on its territory. Immediately afterwards, on April 19, Israeli F-15s reportedly launched Blue Sparrow ballistic target missiles at Isfahan’s military sites from Iraq’s airspace that destroyed the radar system of an S-300 air defense battery at a military airport in Isfahan.

    But the retaliatory strike failed to assuage the murderous frenzy of Israel’s military hawks who vowed to teach Iran a memorable lesson for punching above its weight. Then Mossad Director David Barnea presented a detailed plan to the war cabinet to execute Iran’s president, which was immediately approved by PM Netanyahu and Israeli military’s top brass because the covert assassination plot left sufficient room for claiming plausible deniability. The Biden admin and CIA Director William Burns also gave green light to the Mossad, according to Turkish and Azerbaijani security officials who were briefed on the matter by CIA officials.

    Thus, on the fateful day of May 19, Iran’s charismatic and eloquent President Ebrahim Raisi was due to inaugurate a hydroelectric dam in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, alongside Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. It’s pertinent to mention that Azerbaijan is one of the closest allies of Israel in the region that has longstanding trade and defense ties with Israel. It received generous Israeli military assistance during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia, and hosts several listening posts of Mossad in order to spy on Iran.

    After the inauguration of the dam, the Azerbaijani delegation presented a souvenir to the Iranian delegation to be conveyed to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. It was a voluminous, handwritten book on Islamic jurisprudence dating back to the Safavid era, according to Iranian security officials who refused to be identified. The book was placed in a box and handed over to representative of the Supreme Leader in East Azerbaijan Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem.

    Ale-Hashem boarded the same helicopter as President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and placed the box with a hidden enclosure containing remotely controlled explosive device in the luggage compartment. The helicopter was part of a convoy of three helicopters that departed for Tabriz after the inauguration of the dam. But the Iranian delegation didn’t know that an Israeli stealth drone operated by Mossad was chasing the convoy.

    Forty-five minutes into the flight, the pilot of Raisi’s helicopter, who was in charge of the convoy, ordered other helicopters to increase altitude to avoid a nearby cloud. Thus, under the cover of the clouds the drone sent a signal and the explosive device in the briefcase detonated, causing the helicopter to crash on the rocks below, killing all eight people onboard.

    I’m not sure if that’s a coincidence but the crash site is identified as the village of Uzi in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. Because Uzi is a globally renowned Israeli sub-machine gun, often brandished by gangsters and assassins in the Hollywood flicks. In any case, Mossad’s operatives do have a sense of irony.

    Although Iran’s competent investigators are quite capable to figure out the Mossad’s assassination plot, they were forced by Iran’s political leadership to declare the assassination an accident. Because hardliners in Iran have been clamoring for a full-scale war with Israel after witnessing the merciless genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.

    Had Iran’s political leadership admitted the fact that Ebrahim Raisi’s death was in fact an assassination by Mossad, then it would have become impossible to hold back the war hawks. Therefore, the leadership decided to bury the hatchet and immediately called elections in which moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian has been elected the new president of Iran.

    The post How Mossad Plotted to Assassinate Iranian President? first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Nauman Sadiq.

    ]]>
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    How Venezuela Is Overcoming the US Blockade https://www.radiofree.org/2024/06/27/how-venezuela-is-overcoming-the-us-blockade/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/06/27/how-venezuela-is-overcoming-the-us-blockade/#respond Thu, 27 Jun 2024 06:17:53 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=151489 The future of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution, a target of US imperial power since its inception in 1998, may be decided on July 28, the date of their presidential election. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and seven other presidential candidates pledged to abide by the choice of the electorate. Edmundo González, promoted by the US, and another […]

    The post How Venezuela Is Overcoming the US Blockade first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    The future of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution, a target of US imperial power since its inception in 1998, may be decided on July 28, the date of their presidential election.

    Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and seven other presidential candidates pledged to abide by the choice of the electorate. Edmundo González, promoted by the US, and another candidate have not signed the pledge, consistent with the far right only accepting contest results where they win. Likewise, a bipartisan and bicameral resolution was introduced on June 18 to the US Congress not to recognize a “fraudulent” Maduro victory.

    This election is taking place in the context of US unilateral coercive measures. These so-called sanctions have amounted to an actual economic and financial blockade designed to cripple the economy and cause the people to renounce their government. Such outside interference by Washington is tantamount to electoral blackmail.

    Yet Carlos Ron, Venezuela’s deputy minister of foreign affairs for North America, is confident that the government party will win. He spoke on June 25 at a webinar organized by the Venezuela Solidarity Network.

    Ron explained that the Venezuelan people and government have achieved remarkable progress, resisting Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign. A tanking economy has now been reversed. By the end of 2023, Venezuela had recorded 11 quarters of consecutive growth after years of economic contraction.

    Instead of irrevocably crashing the economy, according to Ron, the US hybrid warfare against Venezuela exposed the US-backed opposition, who have called for sanctions against their own people and have even treasonously endorsed a US-backed military coup option.

    Economist Yosmer Arellán, who is associated with the Central Bank of Venezuela and has collaborated with the UN Special Rapporteur on the impact of unilateral coercive measures, also addressed the webinar. Arellán spoke of the pain visited upon the Venezuelan people by the US sanctions.

    The economist explained that the economy was further impacted by the crash in oil prices, beginning in 2014, as well as by overcompliance with the economic coercive measures by third-parties fearful of US reprisals. Then Covid hit. During the height of the pandemic, even though Venezuela had the hard currency, US sanctions blocked the financial transactions necessary to buy vaccines. He likened such measures to “bombs dropped on our society.”

    In contrast, Venezuela’s economic situation is now looking comparatively bullish. On the same day as the webinar, President Maduro announced oil production had recovered to one million barrels a day. Earlier this month, the five millionth home was delivered as part of the Great Housing Mission social program.

    Arellán described what he called the three-step “virtuous formula” for recovering the economy. This is a model, he added, for the some one third of humanity being punished by US unilateral coercive measures.

    First came resistance in the face of the “extortion” of the unilateral coercive measures. Venezuela learned through trial and error how to do more with less. Out of necessity, the country began to wean itself from dependence on oil revenues which had fallen over 90%. Small and medium businesses were promoted. The private sector, despite being prone to oppose the socialist project, was also punished by the US measures. Today, big business is investing more in domestic productive capacity, according to Arellán.

    Second was halting the economic freefall and achieving economic stability. Two areas in particular were key: rationalizing the exchange rate of the Venezuelan bolivar in relation to the US dollar and taming runaway inflation. Monthly inflation got down to 1.2%, a previously unheard of low rate.

    Third has been the recovery stage, transforming the economy from one dependent on oil revenues to buy foreign goods to one that is now over 90% food sovereign. The economy is being diversified with the sober understanding that relief from the US imperialist hybrid war is unlikely in the near future.

    Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Ron further explained the political dimensions of the US sanctions, which were designed to reverse the sizable achievements of the Chávez years. The aim, he said, was to kill hope and blame socialism for the attacks of “predatory capitalism.” The Venezuelan state was robbed by the US and its allies: seizure of overseas assets; dispossession of  CITGO, the state-owned oil subsidiary in the US; and confiscation of gold reserves held abroad.

    The “perversity of sanctions,” according to Ron, is that they undermine the social functions of the state to support the welfare of the people. That is, they try to cripple the government in order to make socialism look bad.

    Ron gave the example of the 16% malnutrition rate when Hugo Chávez was elected president in 1998. By 2011, the rate was reduced to only 3%. But with the US maximum pressure campaign, the rate shot up to 13% (still better than before the revolution but punishing nonetheless).

    Venezuela experienced record out migration. This emigration was not due, as claimed by the US, to political persecution but was precipitated by worsening economic prospects caused primarily by the US politically-motivated sanctions. But now, Ron explained, citizens are returning to Venezuela and a new vice-ministry to assist their return has been created.

    Washington tried to isolate Venezuela both financially and diplomatically. Four years ago the US and some 50 of its allies recognized the parallel government of “interim president” Juan Guaidó, who had never even run for national office in Venezuela. Today only the US, Israel, and a few others still fail to recognize the elected government.

    Meanwhile, Venezuela has forged significant new economic and political ties with Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran among others. Regional alliances with Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and some Caribbean states, such as ALBA, have been strengthened. Close cooperative relations have been reinforced with friendly governments in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, three of the four leading economies in Latin America.  And Venezuela is orienting toward the Global South, with the possibility of joining the expanded BRICS+ alliance of emerging economies looking increasingly likely.

    Indeed, far from being isolated, Ron noted, Venezuela has further integrated into an emerging multipolar world. Venezuela was just elected to a vice-presidency of the UN General Assembly.

    Ron credited current successes to the political will of a strong and unwavering leadership under President Maduro, which he characterized as a “collective leadership” encompassing many actors. This was coupled with organized “people power.” Both, he emphasized, were needed. Venezuela, he concluded, demonstrated the people’s willingness to face challenges and a government that did not give up on the battle for socialism.

    The post How Venezuela Is Overcoming the US Blockade first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Roger D. Harris.

    ]]>
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    How Venezuela Is Overcoming the US Blockade https://www.radiofree.org/2024/06/27/how-venezuela-is-overcoming-the-us-blockade-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/06/27/how-venezuela-is-overcoming-the-us-blockade-2/#respond Thu, 27 Jun 2024 06:17:53 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=151489 The future of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution, a target of US imperial power since its inception in 1998, may be decided on July 28, the date of their presidential election. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and seven other presidential candidates pledged to abide by the choice of the electorate. Edmundo González, promoted by the US, and another […]

    The post How Venezuela Is Overcoming the US Blockade first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    The future of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution, a target of US imperial power since its inception in 1998, may be decided on July 28, the date of their presidential election.

    Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and seven other presidential candidates pledged to abide by the choice of the electorate. Edmundo González, promoted by the US, and another candidate have not signed the pledge, consistent with the far right only accepting contest results where they win. Likewise, a bipartisan and bicameral resolution was introduced on June 18 to the US Congress not to recognize a “fraudulent” Maduro victory.

    This election is taking place in the context of US unilateral coercive measures. These so-called sanctions have amounted to an actual economic and financial blockade designed to cripple the economy and cause the people to renounce their government. Such outside interference by Washington is tantamount to electoral blackmail.

    Yet Carlos Ron, Venezuela’s deputy minister of foreign affairs for North America, is confident that the government party will win. He spoke on June 25 at a webinar organized by the Venezuela Solidarity Network.

    Ron explained that the Venezuelan people and government have achieved remarkable progress, resisting Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign. A tanking economy has now been reversed. By the end of 2023, Venezuela had recorded 11 quarters of consecutive growth after years of economic contraction.

    Instead of irrevocably crashing the economy, according to Ron, the US hybrid warfare against Venezuela exposed the US-backed opposition, who have called for sanctions against their own people and have even treasonously endorsed a US-backed military coup option.

    Economist Yosmer Arellán, who is associated with the Central Bank of Venezuela and has collaborated with the UN Special Rapporteur on the impact of unilateral coercive measures, also addressed the webinar. Arellán spoke of the pain visited upon the Venezuelan people by the US sanctions.

    The economist explained that the economy was further impacted by the crash in oil prices, beginning in 2014, as well as by overcompliance with the economic coercive measures by third-parties fearful of US reprisals. Then Covid hit. During the height of the pandemic, even though Venezuela had the hard currency, US sanctions blocked the financial transactions necessary to buy vaccines. He likened such measures to “bombs dropped on our society.”

    In contrast, Venezuela’s economic situation is now looking comparatively bullish. On the same day as the webinar, President Maduro announced oil production had recovered to one million barrels a day. Earlier this month, the five millionth home was delivered as part of the Great Housing Mission social program.

    Arellán described what he called the three-step “virtuous formula” for recovering the economy. This is a model, he added, for the some one third of humanity being punished by US unilateral coercive measures.

    First came resistance in the face of the “extortion” of the unilateral coercive measures. Venezuela learned through trial and error how to do more with less. Out of necessity, the country began to wean itself from dependence on oil revenues which had fallen over 90%. Small and medium businesses were promoted. The private sector, despite being prone to oppose the socialist project, was also punished by the US measures. Today, big business is investing more in domestic productive capacity, according to Arellán.

    Second was halting the economic freefall and achieving economic stability. Two areas in particular were key: rationalizing the exchange rate of the Venezuelan bolivar in relation to the US dollar and taming runaway inflation. Monthly inflation got down to 1.2%, a previously unheard of low rate.

    Third has been the recovery stage, transforming the economy from one dependent on oil revenues to buy foreign goods to one that is now over 90% food sovereign. The economy is being diversified with the sober understanding that relief from the US imperialist hybrid war is unlikely in the near future.

    Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Ron further explained the political dimensions of the US sanctions, which were designed to reverse the sizable achievements of the Chávez years. The aim, he said, was to kill hope and blame socialism for the attacks of “predatory capitalism.” The Venezuelan state was robbed by the US and its allies: seizure of overseas assets; dispossession of  CITGO, the state-owned oil subsidiary in the US; and confiscation of gold reserves held abroad.

    The “perversity of sanctions,” according to Ron, is that they undermine the social functions of the state to support the welfare of the people. That is, they try to cripple the government in order to make socialism look bad.

    Ron gave the example of the 16% malnutrition rate when Hugo Chávez was elected president in 1998. By 2011, the rate was reduced to only 3%. But with the US maximum pressure campaign, the rate shot up to 13% (still better than before the revolution but punishing nonetheless).

    Venezuela experienced record out migration. This emigration was not due, as claimed by the US, to political persecution but was precipitated by worsening economic prospects caused primarily by the US politically-motivated sanctions. But now, Ron explained, citizens are returning to Venezuela and a new vice-ministry to assist their return has been created.

    Washington tried to isolate Venezuela both financially and diplomatically. Four years ago the US and some 50 of its allies recognized the parallel government of “interim president” Juan Guaidó, who had never even run for national office in Venezuela. Today only the US, Israel, and a few others still fail to recognize the elected government.

    Meanwhile, Venezuela has forged significant new economic and political ties with Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran among others. Regional alliances with Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and some Caribbean states, such as ALBA, have been strengthened. Close cooperative relations have been reinforced with friendly governments in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, three of the four leading economies in Latin America.  And Venezuela is orienting toward the Global South, with the possibility of joining the expanded BRICS+ alliance of emerging economies looking increasingly likely.

    Indeed, far from being isolated, Ron noted, Venezuela has further integrated into an emerging multipolar world. Venezuela was just elected to a vice-presidency of the UN General Assembly.

    Ron credited current successes to the political will of a strong and unwavering leadership under President Maduro, which he characterized as a “collective leadership” encompassing many actors. This was coupled with organized “people power.” Both, he emphasized, were needed. Venezuela, he concluded, demonstrated the people’s willingness to face challenges and a government that did not give up on the battle for socialism.

    The post How Venezuela Is Overcoming the US Blockade first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Roger D. Harris.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/06/27/how-venezuela-is-overcoming-the-us-blockade-2/feed/ 0 481378
    Richard Falk on the Vietnam War, Revolution in Iran, and Genocide in Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2024/06/24/richard-falk-on-the-vietnam-war-revolution-in-iran-and-genocide-in-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/06/24/richard-falk-on-the-vietnam-war-revolution-in-iran-and-genocide-in-gaza/#respond Mon, 24 Jun 2024 16:04:09 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=151408 Faramarz Farbod: You have taught at Princeton University for four decades; you were the UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territories in Israel (2008-2014); and you are the author of numerous books about global issues and international law. In preparation for this conversation, I have been reading your autobiography, Public Intellectual: […]

    The post Richard Falk on the Vietnam War, Revolution in Iran, and Genocide in Gaza first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Faramarz Farbod: You have taught at Princeton University for four decades; you were the UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territories in Israel (2008-2014); and you are the author of numerous books about global issues and international law. In preparation for this conversation, I have been reading your autobiography, Public Intellectual: The Life of a Citizen Pilgrim (2019). Tell us about yourself and how you became politically engaged in your own words.

    Richard Falk: I grew up in New York City in a kind of typical middle-class, post-religious, Jewish family that had a lot of domestic stress because I had an older sister with mental issues who was hospitalized for most of her life. This caused my parents to divorce because they saw the issues in a very different way. I was brought up by my father. He was a lawyer and quite right-wing, a Cold War advocate, and a friend of some of the prominent people who were anticommunists at that time, including Kerensky, the interim Prime Minister of Russia after the revolution between the Czar and Lenin. My father had a kind of entourage of anti-communist people who were frequent guests. So, I grew up in this kind of conservative, secular environment, post-religious, post any kind of significant cultural relationship to my ethnically Jewish identity.

    I attended a fairly progressive private school that I didn’t like too much because I was more interested in sports than academics at that stage of my life. I managed to go to the university and gradually became more academically oriented. I was jolted into a fit of realism by being on academic probation after my first year at the University of Pennsylvania. That scared me enough that I became a better student. I went to law school after graduating from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, majoring in economics. But I knew I didn’t want to be a lawyer in the way my father was. So, it was a very puzzling time. I studied Indian law and language to make myself irrelevant to the law scene in the US. I never thought of myself as an academic because of the mediocre academic record I had managed to compile. When I graduated from law school, I was supposed to go to India on a Fulbright, but it was canceled at the last minute because India hadn’t paid for some grain under the Public Law-480 program [commonly known as Food for Peace signed into law by President Eisenhower in 1954 to liquidate US surplus agricultural products and increasingly used as a policy tool to advance US strategic and diplomatic interests with “friendly” nations]. It turned out Ohio State University was so desperate to fill a vacancy created by the sickness of one of its faculty that they hired me as a visiting professor. I realized immediately that it was a good way out for me. I managed to stay there for six years until I went to Princeton for 40 years.

    I became gradually liberated from my father’s conservatism and achieved a certain kind of political identity while opposing the Vietnam War. That took a very personal turn when I was invited to go to Vietnam in 1968. There I encountered the full force of what it meant to be a Third World country seeking national independence and yet be opposed by colonial and post-colonial intervention. I was very impressed by the Vietnamese leadership, which I had the opportunity to meet. It was very different from the East European and Soviet leadership that I had earlier summoned some contact with. They were very humanistic and intelligent and oriented toward a kind of post-war peace with the US. They were more worried about China than they were about the US because China was their traditional enemy. But it made me see the world from a different perspective. I felt personally transformed and identified with their struggle for independence and the courage and friendship they exhibited towards me.

    FF: What did you teach at Princeton University?

    RF: My academic background was in international law. Princeton had no law school, so in a way, I was a disciplinary refugee. I began teaching international relations as well as international law. The reason they hired me was that they had an endowed chair in international law instead of a law school and they hadn’t been able to find anyone who was trained in law but not so interested in it. They tracked me down in Ohio State and offered me this very good academic opportunity. They invited me as a visiting professor first and then some years later offered me this chair which had accumulated a lot of resources because they had been unable to fill this position and I was able to have a secretary and research assistants and other kinds of perks that are not normal even at a rich university like Princeton. I felt more kind of an outsider there in terms of both social background and political orientation, but it was a very privileged place to be in many ways that had very good facilities, and I was still enough of an athlete to use the tennis and squash courts as a mode of daily therapy.

    FF: Why would the Vietnamese leadership invite you to come to Vietnam to meet them? Was it because you were a professor at a prestigious university, which gave you an elite status, or was it something else?

    RF: I think it was partly because of my background. I had written some law journal articles that had gotten a bit of attention, and somebody must have recommended me. I don’t know. I was somewhat surprised. I was supposed to go with a well-known West Coast author considered a left person, but she got sick, and I was accompanied by a very young lawyer. So, I was basically on my own, inexperienced, and didn’t know what to expect. It seemed a risky thing to do from a professional point of view because I was going as an opponent of an ongoing war. There was a 19th-century law that said if you engage in private diplomacy, you’re subject to some kind of criminal prosecution. I didn’t know what to anticipate. But it turned out this was at a time when the US was at least pretending to seek a peaceful negotiation to end its involvement. So, when I came back, because I had these meetings with the Prime Minister and others who had given me a peace proposal that was better than what Kissinger negotiated many deaths later during the Nixon presidency, the US government rather than prosecuting me, came to debrief me and invited me to the State Department and so on, which was something of a surprise.

    FF: Did the State Department take this peace proposal seriously?

    RF: I don’t know what happened internally in the government. I made them aware of it. It was given a front-page New York Times coverage for a couple of days. There was this atmosphere at that time, in the spring of 1968, that was disposed toward finding some way out of this impasse that had been reached in the war itself. The war couldn’t be won, and the phrase of that time was “peace with honor” though it was hard to have much honor after all the devastation that had been carried out.

    FF: What were the elements of that peace proposal given to you that were striking to you?

    RF: The thing that surprised me was that they agreed to allow a quite large number of American troops to stay in Vietnam and to be present while a pre-election was internationally monitored in the southern part of Vietnam. They envisioned some kind of coalition government emerging from those elections. It was quite forthcoming given the long struggle and the heavy casualties they had endured. It was a war in which the future in a way was anticipated; the US completely dominated the military dimensions of the war, land, sea, and air, but managed to lose the war. That puzzle between having military superiority and yet failing to control the political outcome is a pattern that was repeated in several places, including later in Afghanistan and Iraq.

    It is a lesson the US elites can not learn. They are unable to learn because of the strength of the military-industrial-congressional complex. They can’t accept the limited agency of military power in the post-colonial world. Therefore, they keep repeating this Vietnam pattern in different forms. They learned some political lessons like not having as much TV coverage of the US casualties. One of the things that was often said by those who supported the war was that it wasn’t lost in Vietnam; it was lost in the US living rooms. Years later, we heard the same concerns with “embedded” journalists with combat forces, for instance, in the first Gulf War. It was a time when they abolished the draft and relied on a voluntary, professional armed forces. They did their best to pacify American political engagement through more control of the media and other techniques. But it didn’t change this pattern of heavy military involvement and political disappointment.

    FF: This pattern maybe repeating itself in Gaza as we speak. But I would like to ask you a follow up question. You said that the reason essentially for the persistence of that pattern is the existence of a powerful military-industrial-congressional complex. Are you assuming that the US political leadership is wishes to learn the hard lessons but gets blocked by the influence of this complex? Could it be that the US ruling class is in fact so immersed in imperial consciousness that it cannot learn the right lessons after all? When the US leaders look at debacles in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam, don’t they seek to learn lessons to pursue their imperial policies more effectively the next time? Which of these perspectives is closer to reality in your thinking?

    RF: The essential point is that the political gatekeepers only select potential leaders who either endorse or consider it a necessity to go along with this consensus as to putting the military budget above partisan politics and making it a matter of bipartisan consensus with small agreements at the margins about whether this or that weapon system should be given priority and greater resource. Occasionally one or two people in Congress will challenge that kind of idea but nothing politically significant in terms of friction. There’s no friction in terms of this way of seeing the projection of US influence in the post-colonial world.

    FF: Let’s assume that’s correct, and I think you’re right about that. But why is that the case? Is it because the US political class knows that a modern capitalist political economy and state needs this military industrial complex as a kind of floor to the economy, that this floor needs to exist, otherwise, if you remove it, stagnationist tendencies will prevail? Is this military industrial floor a requirement of modern US capitalism? Is that why they’re thinking in this way?

    RF: It is a good question. I’m not sure. I think that the core belief is one that’s deep in the political culture. That somehow strength is measured by military capabilities and the underrating of other dimensions of influence and leadership. This is sustained by Wall Street kind of perspectives that see the arms industry as very important component of the economy and by the government bureaucracy that became militarized as a consequence first of World War Two and then along the Cold War. It overbalanced support for the military as a kind of essential element of government credibility. You couldn’t break into those Washington elites unless you were seen as a supporter of this level of consensus. It’s similar in a way to the unquestioning bipartisan support for Israel, which was, until this Gaza crisis, beyond political questioning, and still is beyond political questioning in Washington, despite it being subjected for the first time to serious political doubts among the citizens.

    FF: I think you’re right. There is a cultural element here as well in addition to the uses of military Keynesianism for domestic economic reasons and for imperial reasons to project power. I want to ask you one final question about your reflections on Vietnam. What was the quarrel about from the US perspective? Why was the US so keen on having decades of engagement after the French were defeated in early 1950s all the way to mid 1970s? Why did the US engage in such destructive behavior?

    RF: I think there are two main reasons. Look at the Pentagon Papers that were released by Daniel Ellsberg; they were a study of the US involvement in Vietnam.

    FF: In 1971.

    RF: Yes in 1971, but they go back to the beginning of the engagement. The US didn’t even distinguish between Vietnam and China. They called the Vietnamese Chicoms in those documents. Part of the whole motivation was this obsession with containing China after its revolution in 1949. The second idea was this falling dominoes image that if Vietnam went in a communist direction, other countries in the region would follow and that would have a significant bearing on the global balance and on the whole geopolitics of containment. The third reason was the US trying to exhibit solidarity with the French, who had been defeated in the Indochina war, and to at least limit the scope of that defeat and assert a kind of Western ideological hegemony in the rest of Vietnam.

    FF: I think Indonesia was probably more important from the US perspective. Once there was a successful US-backed coup d’etat in 1965, some in the US argued that perhaps it’s over. The US has won and achieved its strategic objectives by securing Indonesia from falling in the image of the falling dominoes. The US could have gotten out of Vietnam then. But it didn’t. Maybe this was because of concerns about losing credibility. Do you have any thoughts on this matter?

    RF: Yes, that’s a very important observation and it’s hard to document because people don’t acknowledge it fully. The support that the US and particularly CIA gave to the Indonesian effort at genocidal assault on the Sukarno elements of pro-Marxist, anti-Western constituents there resulted in a very deadly killing fields. Indonesia was from a resource and a geopolitical point of view far more important than Vietnam. But Vietnam had built-up a constituency within the armed forces and the counterinsurgency specialists that created a strong push to demonstrate that the US could succeed in this kind of war. The defeat which eventually was acknowledged in effect was thought correctly to inhibit support within the United States for future regime changing interventions and other kinds of foreign policy.

    FF: Let’s move on to another politically engaged episode in your life. You were engaged with the revolutionary processes in Iran in late 1970s. You even met Ayatollah Khomeini in 1978 in a three-hour-long meeting prior to his departure from Paris to Iran in early 1979 when he founded the Islamic Republic and assumed its Supreme Leadership until his death in 1989. What were your thoughts about the Iranian revolution? And what are your reflections today given the vantage point of 45 years of post-revolutionary history? Also tell us what were your impressions of Ayatollah Khomeini in that long meeting you had with him?

    RF: My initial involvement with Iran was a consequence of several Iranian students of mine who were active at Princeton. Princeton had several prominent meetings in 1978 during the year of the Revolution. As a person who had been involved with Vietnam, I was approached by these students to speak and to be involved with their activities. They were all at least claiming to be victims of SAVAK, the Iranian intelligence service under the Shah that was accused of torturing people in prison. I was convinced that after Vietnam, the next place the US would be involved in a regressive manner would be in Iran in support the Shah. Recall that Henry Kissinger in his book on diplomacy says that the Shah was the rarest of things and an unconditional US ally. By that he meant that he did things for Israel that were awkward even for the US to do and he supplied energy to South Africa during the apartheid period. This sense that there would be a confrontation of some sort in Iran guided my early thinking. Then I also had this friendship with Mansour Farhang, who was an intellectual opponent of the Shah’s regime [and later the revolutionary Iran’s first ambassador to the UN] and represented the Iranian bazaari [pertaining to the traditional merchant class] view of Iranian politics that objected to the Shah’s efforts at neoliberal economic globalization. All that background accounted for my invitation to visit Iran and learn first-hand what the revolution was about.

    I went with the former US Attorney General Ramsey Clark and a young religious leader. Three of us spent two quite fascinating weeks in Iran in the moment of maximum ferment because the Shah left the country while we were there. It was a very interesting psychological moment. The people we were with in the city of Qazvin on the day the Shah left couldn’t believe it. They thought it was a trick to get people to show their real political identity as a prelude to a new round of repression. During the Carter presidency, the US was very supportive of the Shah’s use of force in suppressing internal revolt. They had an interval at [the September 1978] Camp David talks, seeking peace between Egypt and Israel, to congratulate the Shah on the shooting of demonstrators [on 8 September in Jaleh Square] in Tehran. That was seen as the epitome of interference in Iran’s internal politics.

    After our visit, we met many religious leaders and secular opponents of the Shah’s government. It was a time when Carter sent the NATO General Huyser to Iran to try to help the armed forces. Because our visit went well, we were given the impression that as a reward for our visit we would have this meeting with Khomeini in Paris, which we did. My impression was of a very severe individual, but very intelligent, with very strong eyes that captured your attention. He was impressive in the sense that he started the meeting by asking us questions – quite important ones as things turned out. His main question was: Did we think the US would intervene as it had in the past in 1953 against Mossadeq? Would the US repeat that kind of intervention in the present context? He went on to add that if the US did not intervene, he saw no obstacle to the normalization of relations. That view was echoed by the US ambassador in Iran, William Sullivan, during our meeting with him. Khomeini objected to speaking of the Iranian revolution and insisted on calling it the Islamic revolution. He extended his condemnation of the Shah’s dynasty to Saudi Arabia and the gulf monarchies arguing that they were as decadent and exploitative as was the Shah. He used a very colorful phrase that I remember to this day, which was the Shah had created “a river of blood” between the state and society. His own private ambition was to return to Iran and resume his religious life. He did not want to be a political leader at that point at least or he may not have understood the degree of support that he enjoyed in Iran at that time. He did go back to the religious city of Qom and resumed a religious life but was led to believe that Bazargan, the Prime Minister of Iran’s interim government, was putting people in charge of running the country who were sacrificing revolutionary goals.

    FF: When you met Ayatollah Khomeini, were you aware of the series of lectures he had given in the early 1970s in Najaf while in exile in Iraq that were smuggled via audio cassettes into mosque networks inside Iran and later published as a book titled Islamic Government: Governance of the Jurist? Some people knew that he had those ideas about an Islamic state, but he did not talk about it in Paris. Did he talk about it when you met him?

    RF: He didn’t talk about it. I was superficially familiar with it. Among the people we met in Tehran was a mathematician who was very familiar with that part of Khomeini’s writing and was scared by what it portended. Of course, Khomeini, as I said, did not anticipate or at least said he did not anticipate his own political leadership, and may have regarded that vision in his writing as something he hoped to achieve but did not necessarily think of himself as the agent of its implementation. I have no idea about that.

    FF: In retrospect, what are your general reflections looking back on Iran’s revolution?

    RF: One set of reflections is the revolution’s durability. Whatever failures it has had, it has successfully resisted its internal, regional, and global adversaries. If it had not been tough on its opponents, it probably would not have survived very long. The comparison, for instance, with the Arab Spring’s failures to sustain their upheavals is quite striking, particularly with Egypt when comparing the failure of the Egyptian movement to sustain itself with the Iranian experience and resistance.

    The second thing is disappointment at the failure to develop in more humane directions and the extreme harshness of the treatment of people perceived as their opponent. In that sense, there is no doubt that it has become a repressive theocratic autocracy. But countries like Israel and the US are not completely without some responsibility for that development. There was a kind of induced paranoia in a way because they had real opponents who tried to destabilize it in a variety of ways. The West encouraged Iraq to attack Iran and gave it a kind of green light. The attack involved the idea that they could at least easily control the oil producing parts of Iran, if not bring about the fall of the Khomeini-style regime itself. As often is the case in the US-induced use of force overseas, there are a lot of miscalculations, probably on both sides.

    FF: The US has viewed Iran ever since its revolution as a threat to its geostrategic interests. I think that the “threat” is more the deterrence power of Iran, in other words, Iran’s ability to impose a cost on US operations in the region, oftentimes targeting Iran itself. And of course, Israel, too, is in alliance with the US. Do you agree with this assessment that there is basically no threat to the United States from Iran aside from Iran’s ability to impose costs on US operations in the region, oftentimes against Iran itself?

    RF: I completely agree with that. Iran had initially especially at most an anti-imperial outlook that did not want interference with the national movement. Of course, it wanted to encourage Islamic movements throughout the region and had a certain success. That was viewed in Washington as a geopolitical threat. It was certainly not a national security threat in the conventional sense. But it could be viewed as a threat to the degree to which US hegemony could be maintained in the strategic energy policies that were very important to the US at that time.

    FF: Let’s shift to Palestine-Israel. What is the appropriate historical context for understanding what happened on Oct. 7 and what has been taking place since then in Gaza and the West Bank? We know that the conventional US view distorts reality by talking about this issue as if history began on 7 October with the Hamas attack on southern Israel.

    RF: This is a complicated set of issues to unravel in a brief conversation. But there is no question that the context of the Hamas attack is crucial to understanding its occurrence, even though the attack itself needs to be problematized in terms of whether Israel wanted it to happen or let it happen. They had adequate advance warning; they had all that surveillance technology along the borders with Gaza. The IDF did not respond as it usually does in a short period. It took them five hours, apparently, to arrive at the scene of these events. On the one side, we really don’t know how to perceive that October 7 event. We do know that some worse aspects of it, the beheading of babies, mass rapes, and those kinds of horrifying details, were being manipulated by Israel and its supporters. So, we need an authoritative reconstruction of October 7 itself.

    But even without that reconstruction, we know that Hamas and the Palestinians were being provoked by a series of events. There is a kind of immediate context where Netanyahu goes to the UN General Assembly and waves a map with Palestine essentially erased from it. To Netanyahu, this is the new Middle East without Palestine in it. He has made it clear recently that he is opposed to any kind of Palestinian statehood. So, one probable motivation was for the Palestinians to reassert their presence or existence and resolve to remain.

    The other very important contextual element is the recollection of the Nakba or catastrophe that occurred in 1948 where 750,000 Palestinians were forced to flee from their homes and villages and not permitted to return. The Israeli response since October 7 gives rise to a strong impression that the real motivation on its part is not security as it is ordinarily understood but rather a second Nakba to ethnically cleanse and to implement this by the forced evacuation and unlivability of Gaza carried out by what many people, including myself, have regarded as a genocide.

    The Israeli argument that they are entitled to act in self-defense seems very strained in this context. Gaza and the West Bank are from an international law point of view occupied territories; they are not foreign entities. How do you exercise self-defense against yourself? The Geneva Accords are very clear that the primary duty of the occupying power is to protect the civilian population. It is an unconditional duty of the occupying power, and it is spelled out in terms of an unconditional obligation, to make sure that the population has sufficient food and medical supplies, which the Israeli leadership from day one excluded. They tried to block the entry of food, fuel, and electricity and have caused a severe health-starvation scenario that will probably cost many more lives than have already been lost.

    FF: Not to speak of another violation by Israel: As an occupying power it is prohibited from transferring its own population to the territories that it has been occupying.

    RF: Yes.

    FF: Of course, Israeli expansionism in terms of its settlements, practically does away with the viability of the idea of a two-state solution, unless somehow, they can be forced to remove all the settlers and dismantle the major settlement blocks in the West Bank.

    Let me get your thoughts on the following. It seems Israel used October 7 as an excuse to carry out a speedier mass expulsion campaign rather than to continue with the slower ethnic cleansing that oftentimes characterize its actions in various decades in the period of Israeli control over these territories. We can point to 1948 and 1967 as two other occasions when Israel took advantage of historical moments and expelled many Palestinians. Post-Oct. 7 may be the third historical moment in which Israel is behaving in this manner. Do you agree with this assessment?

    RF: Absolutely. The only thing I would add is that the Netanyahu coalition with religious Zionism as it took over in Israel in January of 2023 was widely viewed, even in Washington, as the most extreme government that had ever come to power in Israel. What made it extreme was the green lighting of settler violence in the West Bank, which was clearly aimed at dispossessing the Palestinian presence there. They often at these settler demonstrations would leave on Palestinian cars these messages: “leave or we will kill you.” It is horrifying that this dimension of Israeli provocation has not been taken into some account.

    FF: Yes, we see that in the West Bank since October 7. By now some 16 villages have been depopulated, several hundred Palestinians killed, and close to 6000 arrested by the Israeli Offensive (not Defensive) Forces who often act alongside armed settlers who enjoy impunity in terrorizing the Palestinians.

    Well, thank you, Richard, for joining me in this conversation. I found it to be very interesting.

    RF: Thank you and I also found your questions very suggestive and a challenge.

    The post Richard Falk on the Vietnam War, Revolution in Iran, and Genocide in Gaza first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Faramarz Farbod.

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    What was the late Iranian president Ebrahim Raeesi’s legacy of repression? #iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/05/23/what-was-the-late-iranian-president-ebrahim-raeesis-legacy-of-repression-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/05/23/what-was-the-late-iranian-president-ebrahim-raeesis-legacy-of-repression-iran/#respond Thu, 23 May 2024 10:07:57 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=281c8aad92368b46c34f3ed294dec538
    This content originally appeared on Human Rights Watch and was authored by Human Rights Watch.

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    Iran At Crossroads After President Ebrahim Raisi Killed In Helicopter Crash https://www.radiofree.org/2024/05/20/iran-at-crossroads-after-president-ebrahim-raisi-killed-in-helicopter-crash/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/05/20/iran-at-crossroads-after-president-ebrahim-raisi-killed-in-helicopter-crash/#respond Mon, 20 May 2024 18:34:32 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=326457db1d8985e28c32c30e7406060c
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Trita Parsi on Future of Iran After President & Foreign Minister Die in Helicopter Crash https://www.radiofree.org/2024/05/20/trita-parsi-on-future-of-iran-after-president-foreign-minister-die-in-helicopter-crash/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/05/20/trita-parsi-on-future-of-iran-after-president-foreign-minister-die-in-helicopter-crash/#respond Mon, 20 May 2024 12:10:52 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=e9cfdcb6c2e455568c20214b716cda5c Seg1 tritaandcrash

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were killed on Sunday in a helicopter crash along with several other officials and crew. Wreckage of the helicopter was found early Monday in a mountainous region of the country’s northwest following an overnight search in blizzard conditions. Raisi was returning from inaugurating a new dam built jointly with Azerbaijan along the two countries’ border. Raisi, 63, was elected in 2021 in a vote that saw the lowest-percentage turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history after major opposition candidates were disqualified from taking part. Analyst Trita Parsi says the president’s death will have little impact on the Islamic Republic’s policies, including barring dissident candidates from running for office. “Now the regime is going to have to try to whip up and mobilize voters and excitement for an election within 50 days,” he says. “And it has to make a decision: Is it actually going to allow other candidates to stand, or is it going to continue on the path that it has set out for itself in which these elections increasingly become rather meaningless in terms of actual democratic value?”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Iranian economics reporter begins 5-month sentence in Karaj prison https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/30/iranian-economics-reporter-begins-5-month-sentence-in-karaj-prison/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/30/iranian-economics-reporter-begins-5-month-sentence-in-karaj-prison/#respond Tue, 30 Apr 2024 21:16:56 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=383677 Washington, D.C., April 30, 2024—Iranian authorities must immediately release journalist Parisa Salehi from prison and cease jailing members of the press for doing their jobs by reporting on events of public interest, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Tuesday. 

    On January 24, Judge Asef Al-Hosseini, in Branch one of Karaj Revolutionary Court, sentenced Parisa Salehi, an economics reporter for the state-run financial newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad, to one year in prison, a two-year ban on leaving the country, two years of internal exile, and a two-year ban on social media use, after convicting her on charges of “spreading propaganda against the system” in connection with her reporting, though no specific report was mentioned at the time, according to her post on X, formerly Twitter, and a report by Iran International.

    Salehi’s prison sentence was later reduced by an appeals court to five months, but the other sentences were upheld, according to news reports. 

    On April 21, Salehi received a summons requiring her to surrender  to prison authorities within five days, the exiled-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported.

    “Iranian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release journalist Parisa Salehi and cease the practice of arbitrarily locking up members of the press without revealing any credible information about their alleged charges,” said Carlos Martinez de la Serna, CPJ’s program director, in New York. “The lack of transparency about Salehi’s case risks a chilling effect on newsgathering in the country and questions the judiciary’s due process.” 

    Salehi was arrested on April 28 and was immediately transferred to Karaj’s Kaju’i prison to serve her five-month prison sentence according to a post by her sister Parinaz Salehi on X, formerly Twitter. 

    CPJ’s email to Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment on Salehi’s arrest and imprisonment did not receive any reply.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Committee to Protect Journalists.

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    Chamber of Propaganda Horrors https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/27/chamber-of-propaganda-horrors/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/27/chamber-of-propaganda-horrors/#respond Sat, 27 Apr 2024 22:06:17 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=150014 Tourists visiting Spanish cities like Córdoba, Toledo and Sevilla have the option of whiling away an hour or so at a ‘Museum of the Inquisition’, sometimes known as a ‘Gallery of Torture’. For around three euros, visitors can view an exotic range of devices used to impale, immolate, strangle and dismember human beings in the […]

    The post Chamber of Propaganda Horrors first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Tourists visiting Spanish cities like Córdoba, Toledo and Sevilla have the option of whiling away an hour or so at a ‘Museum of the Inquisition’, sometimes known as a ‘Gallery of Torture’. For around three euros, visitors can view an exotic range of devices used to impale, immolate, strangle and dismember human beings in the name of God.

    It’s tempting to reassure ourselves that these are relics of a far-distant past, horrors that could never happen now. But did the Dark Ages ever really end? Noam Chomsky commented:

    ‘Part of the tragedy of the Palestinians is that they have essentially no international support. For a good reason – they don’t have wealth, they don’t have power. So they don’t have rights. It’s the way the world works – your rights correspond to your power and your wealth.’

    It is indeed the way the world works. It is also the way the medieval world worked. UK Foreign Secretary, Lord David Cameron (Baron Cameron of Chipping Norton), recently passed judgment on the war in Ukraine at a Washington press conference:

    ‘It is extremely good value for money… Almost half of Russia’s pre-war military equipment has been destroyed without the loss of a single American life. This is an investment in the United States’ security.’

    According even to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, 31,000 Ukrainians have been killed in the conflict. US officials estimate 70,000 dead, while Russia claims to have killed 444,000. Are these deaths ‘good value for money’?

    And what about the 50,000 Russians estimated by the BBC to have died? Do they matter? After all, European civilisation is supposed to be founded on Christ’s teaching that we should love, not just our ‘neighbour’ but our ‘enemy’. On Britain’s Channel 5, BBC stalwart Jeremy Vine offered a different view to Bill, a caller from Manchester:

    ‘Bill, Bill, the brutal reality is, if you put on a uniform for Putin and you go and fight his war, you probably deserve to die, don’t you?’

    Elsewhere, the Most Reverend and Right Honourable Justin Welby, the Archbishop of Canterbury, commented after Iran retaliated to Israel’s bombing of an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 16 people, including two senior Iranian generals:

    ‘The attacks on Israel by Iran this weekend were wrong. They risked civilian lives and they escalated the already dangerous tensions in the region. I pray for the peace and security of Israel’s people at this time and I appeal to all parties both for restraint and to act for peace and mutual security.’ (Our emphasis)

    If Christ had done political commentary, he would have declared both the Iranian and Israeli attacks wrong, and he would have prayed ‘for the peace and security’ of the peoples of Israel and Iran, and also Palestine.

    Cameron responded on the same issue:

    ‘[It was] a reckless and dangerous thing for Iran to have done, and I think the whole world can see. All these countries that have somehow wondered, well, you know, what is the true nature of Iran? It’s there in black and white.”

    He was immediately asked: ‘What would Britain do if a hostile nation flattened one of our consulates?’

    Cameron’s tragicomic response:

    ‘Well, we would take, you know, we would take very strong action.’

    Naturally, ‘we’ would do the same or worse, but it’s a grim sign of Iran’s ‘true nature’ when ‘they’ do it. The ‘Evil’ have no right even to defend themselves when attacked by the ‘Good’. Standard medieval thinking.

    ‘Murderous’ And ‘Brutal’ – Tilting The Language

    In idle moments, we sometimes fantasise about opening our own Media Lens Chamber of Propaganda Horrors, a Hall of Media Infamy. It would be a cavernous space packed with examples of devices used to strangle and dismember Truth.

    A special section would be reserved for the sage effusions of BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner, who wrote recently of Israel:

    ‘It responded to the murderous Hamas-led attacks of 7 October… and then spent the next six months battering the Gaza Strip.’

    The Hamas attack was ‘murderous’, then, with Israel administering a mere ‘battering’ with its attack that has caused at least 30 times the loss of life. A ‘battering’ is generally bruising but not necessarily fatal. The term is certainly not synonymous with genocide. Is this biased use of language accidental, or systemic?

    Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting (FAIR) commented on their careful study of the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal:

    ‘Looking at all attributions, 77% of the time when the word “brutal” was used to describe an actor in the conflict, it referred to Palestinians and their actions. This was 73% of the time at the Times, 78% at the Post and 87% at the Journal. Only 23% of the time was “brutal” used to describe Israel’s actions…’

    The Intercept reported on a leaked memo which revealed that the New York Times had ‘instructed journalists covering Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip to restrict the use of the terms “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing” and to “avoid” using the phrase “occupied territory” when describing Palestinian land’. The Intercept added:

    ‘The memo also instructs reporters not to use the word Palestine “except in very rare cases” and to steer clear of the term “refugee camps” to describe areas of Gaza historically settled by displaced Palestinians expelled from other parts of Palestine during previous Israeli–Arab wars. The areas are recognized by the United Nations as refugee camps and house hundreds of thousands of registered refugees.’

    The memo was written by Times standards editor Susan Wessling, international editor Philip Pan, and their deputies. A Times newsroom source, who requested anonymity ‘for fear of reprisal’, said:

    ‘I think it’s the kind of thing that looks professional and logical if you have no knowledge of the historical context of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But if you do know, it will be clear how apologetic it is to Israel.’

    Our Chamber of Propaganda Horrors might feature this barely believable sentence from a BBC report by Lucy Williamson, which reads like something from the film ‘Dr. Strangelove’:

    ‘If you wanted to map the path to a healthy, functioning Palestinian government, you probably wouldn’t start from here.’

    Probably wouldn’t start from where? From the middle of a six-months genocide, with two million civilians starving, with children literally starving to death, with tens of thousands of children murdered, with Gaza in ruins? It is hard to imagine a more ethically or intellectually tone-deaf observation. The BBC’s Jeremy Bowen added to the sense of surreality:

    ‘The decision not to veto the Ramadan ceasefire resolution is also an attempt by the Americans to push back at accusations that they have enabled Israel’s actions.’

    Is it an ‘accusation’ that the US has supplied billions of dollars of missiles and bombs without which Israel could not conduct its genocide? Is there any conceivable way the US could ever ‘push back at’ that unarguable fact? The Guardian described how the US has worked hard to avoid Congressional oversight:

    ‘The US is reported to have made more than 100 weapons sales to Israel, including thousands of bombs, since the start of the war in Gaza, but the deliveries escaped congressional oversight because each transaction was under the dollar amount requiring approval.

    ‘The Biden administration… has kept up a quiet but substantial flow of munitions to help replace the tens of thousands of bombs Israel has dropped on the tiny coastal strip, making it one of the most intense bombing campaigns in military history.’

    These hidden sales are in addition to the $320m in precision bomb kits sold in November and 14,000 tank shells costing $106m and $147.5m of fuses and other components needed to make 155mm artillery shells in December.

    In response to the latest news of a massive additional supply of arms to Israel, Edward Snowden posted on X:

    ‘ok but you’re definitely gonna hold off on sending like fifteen billion dollars’ worth of weapons to the guys that keep getting caught filling mass graves with kids until an independent international investigation is completed, right?

    ‘…right?’

    Because we no longer live in the Dark Ages, right?

    Waiting For The Hiroshima Bombing Scene

    People are generally not tortured on the rack in Western societies, but are we really any less callous?

    Christopher Nolan’s film ‘Oppenheimer’ has been lauded to the skies. It earned 13 nominations at the Academy Awards, winning seven Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. It also won five Golden Globe Awards.

    And yet the film is a moral disgrace. It focuses on the life of physicist Robert J. Oppenheimer, and particularly, of course, on his key role in developing the first atomic weapons. The direct results of his efforts were the dropping of nuclear fireballs on the civilian populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan that killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people.

    These were the first acts of nuclear terrorism, by far the greatest single acts of terrorism the world has ever seen. Although the moral doubts haunting the ‘Manhattan Project’ then and since feature strongly in the film, a portrayal of the hideous impact of Oppenheimer’s invention on civilians is almost completely absent. This single, dignified comment from an elderly Japanese viewer reported by the Guardian says it all:

    ‘“I was waiting for the Hiroshima bombing scene to appear, but it never did,” said Mimaki, 82.’

    Although the BBC sought out the opinion of cinemagoers in Hiroshima, ‘only meters away’ from where the bomb exploded, the film’s shocking moral failure was not mentioned.

    On reflection, our museum might be better called, The Museum Of Media Madness. Thus, the BBC reported on the refusal of event organisers, The European Broadcasting Union (EBU), to ban Israel from the Eurovision Song Contest. The EBU opined:

    ‘We firmly believe that the Eurovision Song Contest is a platform that should always transcend politics, promote togetherness and bring audiences together across the world.’

    The BBC claims to be obsessed with reporting ‘both sides of the story’, but it conveniently forgot to mention that Russia has been banned from the song contest since 2022 for a reason that did not ‘transcend politics’ – its invasion of Ukraine.

    Martin Österdahl, EBU’s executive supervisor for Eurovision, was asked to explain the contradiction. He responded that the two situations were ‘completely different’. True enough – Israel’s crimes in Gaza are much worse even than Russia’s crimes in Ukraine. Österdahl’s casual brush off:

    ‘We are not the arena to solve a Middle East conflict.’

    Media and political voices seeking to challenge the reigning brutality are not burned alive, but they are buried alive in high security prisons like Julian Assange, beaten up on the street like George Galloway, and forced into exile like Edward Snowden. Dissidents may not be pelted with rotten fruit and vegetables in the stocks, but they are pelted with relentless media attacks intended to discredit them.

    In the Guardian, John Crace greeted the news that Galloway had returned to parliament, with a piece titled:

    ‘The Ego has landed: George Galloway basks in his swearing in as MP’

    Crace wrote:

    ‘Wherever he goes, his giant ego is there before him. Like most narcissists, the only fool for whom he makes allowances – for whom he has a total blindspot – is himself.’

    He added:

    ‘… there is a lot about Galloway to dislike. His self-importance is breathtaking. Most MPs suffer from an excess of self-regard, but George is off the scale. It has never crossed his mind that he is not right about everything.’

    Before Galloway’s victory, a Guardian news piece commented:

    ‘“A total, total disaster”: Galloway and Danczuk line up for Rochdale push – Two former Labour MPs are back to haunt the party in what has been called “the most radioactive byelection in living memory”’

    As we have discussed many times, this is the required view, not just of Galloway, but of all dissidents challenging the status quo – they (and we) are all toxic ‘narcissists’. Thus, the BBC observed of Galloway, a ‘political maverick’:

    ‘To his critics and opponents, he is a dangerous egotist, someone who arouses division.’

    What percentage of Tory and Labour MPs under (and including) Sunak and Starmer are not dangerous egotists? Are the thousands of MPs who, decade after decade, line up to vote for US-UK resource wars of aggression of first resort, for action to exacerbate climate collapse, not dangerous egotists?  Of course they are, but they are not labelled that way. The only egotism perceived as ‘dangerous’ by our state-corporate media system is one that threatens biocidal, genocidal and suicidal state-corporate narcissism.

    We have to travel far from the ‘mainstream’ to read a more balanced view of Galloway. Former British ambassador Craig Murray commented:

    ‘I have known George Galloway my entire adult life, although we largely lost touch in the middle bit while I was off diplomating. I know George too well to mistake him for Jesus Christ, but he has been on the right side against appalling wars which the entire political class has cheer-led. His natural gifts of mellifluence and loquacity are unsurpassed, with an added talent for punchy phrase making.

    ‘… But outwith the public gaze George is humorous, kind and self-aware. He has been deeply involved in politics his entire life, and is a great believer in the democratic process as the ultimate way by which the working classes will ultimately take control of the means of production. He is a very old-fashioned and courteous form of socialist.’

    We strongly disagree with Galloway’s views on fossil fuel production and climate change – in fact, he blocked us on X for robustly but politely challenging him on these issues. Nevertheless, it is clear to us that Murray’s view of Galloway is far more reasonable.

    Neon-Lit Dark Age

    In ‘Brave New World Revisited’, Aldous Huxley wrote:

    ‘The victim of mind-manipulation does not know that he is a victim. To him, the walls of his prison are invisible, and he believes himself to be free.’ (Huxley, ‘Brave New World Revisited’, archive.org, 1958, p.109)

    This is certainly true of corporate journalists. Borrowing illiberally from authentically dissident media, a recurring Guardian appeal asks readers to support its heroic defence of Truth. The declared enemy:

    ‘Teams of lawyers from the rich and powerful trying to stop us publishing stories they don’t want you to see.

    ‘Lobby groups with opaque funding who are determined to undermine facts about the climate emergency and other established science.

    ‘Authoritarian states with no regard for the freedom of the press.

    ‘Bad actors spreading disinformation online to undermine democracy.

    ‘But we have something powerful on our side.

    ‘We’ve got you.

    ‘The Guardian is funded by its readers and the only person who decides what we publish is our editor.’

    They have indeed ‘got you’, many of you, and not in a good way. The real threat to truth in our time, quite obviously, is the fact that profit-maximising, ad-dependent corporate media like the Guardian cannot and will not report the truth of a world dominated by giant corporations. The declared aspiration is a sham, a form of niche marketing exploiting the gullible.

    The truth is that ‘mainstream’ media and politics are now captured in a way that is beyond anything we have previously seen. All around the world, political choices have been carefully fixed and filtered to ensure ordinary people are unable to challenge the endless wars, the determination to prioritise profits over climate action at any cost. The job of the corporate media system is to pretend the choices are real, to ensure the walls of the prison remain invisible.

    The only hope in this neon-lit Dark Age is genuinely independent media – the blogs and websites that are now being filtered, shadow-banned, buried and marginalised like never before.

    The post Chamber of Propaganda Horrors first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Media Lens.

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    Chamber of Propaganda Horrors https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/27/chamber-of-propaganda-horrors/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/27/chamber-of-propaganda-horrors/#respond Sat, 27 Apr 2024 22:06:17 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=150014 Tourists visiting Spanish cities like Córdoba, Toledo and Sevilla have the option of whiling away an hour or so at a ‘Museum of the Inquisition’, sometimes known as a ‘Gallery of Torture’. For around three euros, visitors can view an exotic range of devices used to impale, immolate, strangle and dismember human beings in the […]

    The post Chamber of Propaganda Horrors first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Tourists visiting Spanish cities like Córdoba, Toledo and Sevilla have the option of whiling away an hour or so at a ‘Museum of the Inquisition’, sometimes known as a ‘Gallery of Torture’. For around three euros, visitors can view an exotic range of devices used to impale, immolate, strangle and dismember human beings in the name of God.

    It’s tempting to reassure ourselves that these are relics of a far-distant past, horrors that could never happen now. But did the Dark Ages ever really end? Noam Chomsky commented:

    ‘Part of the tragedy of the Palestinians is that they have essentially no international support. For a good reason – they don’t have wealth, they don’t have power. So they don’t have rights. It’s the way the world works – your rights correspond to your power and your wealth.’

    It is indeed the way the world works. It is also the way the medieval world worked. UK Foreign Secretary, Lord David Cameron (Baron Cameron of Chipping Norton), recently passed judgment on the war in Ukraine at a Washington press conference:

    ‘It is extremely good value for money… Almost half of Russia’s pre-war military equipment has been destroyed without the loss of a single American life. This is an investment in the United States’ security.’

    According even to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, 31,000 Ukrainians have been killed in the conflict. US officials estimate 70,000 dead, while Russia claims to have killed 444,000. Are these deaths ‘good value for money’?

    And what about the 50,000 Russians estimated by the BBC to have died? Do they matter? After all, European civilisation is supposed to be founded on Christ’s teaching that we should love, not just our ‘neighbour’ but our ‘enemy’. On Britain’s Channel 5, BBC stalwart Jeremy Vine offered a different view to Bill, a caller from Manchester:

    ‘Bill, Bill, the brutal reality is, if you put on a uniform for Putin and you go and fight his war, you probably deserve to die, don’t you?’

    Elsewhere, the Most Reverend and Right Honourable Justin Welby, the Archbishop of Canterbury, commented after Iran retaliated to Israel’s bombing of an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 16 people, including two senior Iranian generals:

    ‘The attacks on Israel by Iran this weekend were wrong. They risked civilian lives and they escalated the already dangerous tensions in the region. I pray for the peace and security of Israel’s people at this time and I appeal to all parties both for restraint and to act for peace and mutual security.’ (Our emphasis)

    If Christ had done political commentary, he would have declared both the Iranian and Israeli attacks wrong, and he would have prayed ‘for the peace and security’ of the peoples of Israel and Iran, and also Palestine.

    Cameron responded on the same issue:

    ‘[It was] a reckless and dangerous thing for Iran to have done, and I think the whole world can see. All these countries that have somehow wondered, well, you know, what is the true nature of Iran? It’s there in black and white.”

    He was immediately asked: ‘What would Britain do if a hostile nation flattened one of our consulates?’

    Cameron’s tragicomic response:

    ‘Well, we would take, you know, we would take very strong action.’

    Naturally, ‘we’ would do the same or worse, but it’s a grim sign of Iran’s ‘true nature’ when ‘they’ do it. The ‘Evil’ have no right even to defend themselves when attacked by the ‘Good’. Standard medieval thinking.

    ‘Murderous’ And ‘Brutal’ – Tilting The Language

    In idle moments, we sometimes fantasise about opening our own Media Lens Chamber of Propaganda Horrors, a Hall of Media Infamy. It would be a cavernous space packed with examples of devices used to strangle and dismember Truth.

    A special section would be reserved for the sage effusions of BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner, who wrote recently of Israel:

    ‘It responded to the murderous Hamas-led attacks of 7 October… and then spent the next six months battering the Gaza Strip.’

    The Hamas attack was ‘murderous’, then, with Israel administering a mere ‘battering’ with its attack that has caused at least 30 times the loss of life. A ‘battering’ is generally bruising but not necessarily fatal. The term is certainly not synonymous with genocide. Is this biased use of language accidental, or systemic?

    Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting (FAIR) commented on their careful study of the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal:

    ‘Looking at all attributions, 77% of the time when the word “brutal” was used to describe an actor in the conflict, it referred to Palestinians and their actions. This was 73% of the time at the Times, 78% at the Post and 87% at the Journal. Only 23% of the time was “brutal” used to describe Israel’s actions…’

    The Intercept reported on a leaked memo which revealed that the New York Times had ‘instructed journalists covering Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip to restrict the use of the terms “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing” and to “avoid” using the phrase “occupied territory” when describing Palestinian land’. The Intercept added:

    ‘The memo also instructs reporters not to use the word Palestine “except in very rare cases” and to steer clear of the term “refugee camps” to describe areas of Gaza historically settled by displaced Palestinians expelled from other parts of Palestine during previous Israeli–Arab wars. The areas are recognized by the United Nations as refugee camps and house hundreds of thousands of registered refugees.’

    The memo was written by Times standards editor Susan Wessling, international editor Philip Pan, and their deputies. A Times newsroom source, who requested anonymity ‘for fear of reprisal’, said:

    ‘I think it’s the kind of thing that looks professional and logical if you have no knowledge of the historical context of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But if you do know, it will be clear how apologetic it is to Israel.’

    Our Chamber of Propaganda Horrors might feature this barely believable sentence from a BBC report by Lucy Williamson, which reads like something from the film ‘Dr. Strangelove’:

    ‘If you wanted to map the path to a healthy, functioning Palestinian government, you probably wouldn’t start from here.’

    Probably wouldn’t start from where? From the middle of a six-months genocide, with two million civilians starving, with children literally starving to death, with tens of thousands of children murdered, with Gaza in ruins? It is hard to imagine a more ethically or intellectually tone-deaf observation. The BBC’s Jeremy Bowen added to the sense of surreality:

    ‘The decision not to veto the Ramadan ceasefire resolution is also an attempt by the Americans to push back at accusations that they have enabled Israel’s actions.’

    Is it an ‘accusation’ that the US has supplied billions of dollars of missiles and bombs without which Israel could not conduct its genocide? Is there any conceivable way the US could ever ‘push back at’ that unarguable fact? The Guardian described how the US has worked hard to avoid Congressional oversight:

    ‘The US is reported to have made more than 100 weapons sales to Israel, including thousands of bombs, since the start of the war in Gaza, but the deliveries escaped congressional oversight because each transaction was under the dollar amount requiring approval.

    ‘The Biden administration… has kept up a quiet but substantial flow of munitions to help replace the tens of thousands of bombs Israel has dropped on the tiny coastal strip, making it one of the most intense bombing campaigns in military history.’

    These hidden sales are in addition to the $320m in precision bomb kits sold in November and 14,000 tank shells costing $106m and $147.5m of fuses and other components needed to make 155mm artillery shells in December.

    In response to the latest news of a massive additional supply of arms to Israel, Edward Snowden posted on X:

    ‘ok but you’re definitely gonna hold off on sending like fifteen billion dollars’ worth of weapons to the guys that keep getting caught filling mass graves with kids until an independent international investigation is completed, right?

    ‘…right?’

    Because we no longer live in the Dark Ages, right?

    Waiting For The Hiroshima Bombing Scene

    People are generally not tortured on the rack in Western societies, but are we really any less callous?

    Christopher Nolan’s film ‘Oppenheimer’ has been lauded to the skies. It earned 13 nominations at the Academy Awards, winning seven Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. It also won five Golden Globe Awards.

    And yet the film is a moral disgrace. It focuses on the life of physicist Robert J. Oppenheimer, and particularly, of course, on his key role in developing the first atomic weapons. The direct results of his efforts were the dropping of nuclear fireballs on the civilian populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan that killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people.

    These were the first acts of nuclear terrorism, by far the greatest single acts of terrorism the world has ever seen. Although the moral doubts haunting the ‘Manhattan Project’ then and since feature strongly in the film, a portrayal of the hideous impact of Oppenheimer’s invention on civilians is almost completely absent. This single, dignified comment from an elderly Japanese viewer reported by the Guardian says it all:

    ‘“I was waiting for the Hiroshima bombing scene to appear, but it never did,” said Mimaki, 82.’

    Although the BBC sought out the opinion of cinemagoers in Hiroshima, ‘only meters away’ from where the bomb exploded, the film’s shocking moral failure was not mentioned.

    On reflection, our museum might be better called, The Museum Of Media Madness. Thus, the BBC reported on the refusal of event organisers, The European Broadcasting Union (EBU), to ban Israel from the Eurovision Song Contest. The EBU opined:

    ‘We firmly believe that the Eurovision Song Contest is a platform that should always transcend politics, promote togetherness and bring audiences together across the world.’

    The BBC claims to be obsessed with reporting ‘both sides of the story’, but it conveniently forgot to mention that Russia has been banned from the song contest since 2022 for a reason that did not ‘transcend politics’ – its invasion of Ukraine.

    Martin Österdahl, EBU’s executive supervisor for Eurovision, was asked to explain the contradiction. He responded that the two situations were ‘completely different’. True enough – Israel’s crimes in Gaza are much worse even than Russia’s crimes in Ukraine. Österdahl’s casual brush off:

    ‘We are not the arena to solve a Middle East conflict.’

    Media and political voices seeking to challenge the reigning brutality are not burned alive, but they are buried alive in high security prisons like Julian Assange, beaten up on the street like George Galloway, and forced into exile like Edward Snowden. Dissidents may not be pelted with rotten fruit and vegetables in the stocks, but they are pelted with relentless media attacks intended to discredit them.

    In the Guardian, John Crace greeted the news that Galloway had returned to parliament, with a piece titled:

    ‘The Ego has landed: George Galloway basks in his swearing in as MP’

    Crace wrote:

    ‘Wherever he goes, his giant ego is there before him. Like most narcissists, the only fool for whom he makes allowances – for whom he has a total blindspot – is himself.’

    He added:

    ‘… there is a lot about Galloway to dislike. His self-importance is breathtaking. Most MPs suffer from an excess of self-regard, but George is off the scale. It has never crossed his mind that he is not right about everything.’

    Before Galloway’s victory, a Guardian news piece commented:

    ‘“A total, total disaster”: Galloway and Danczuk line up for Rochdale push – Two former Labour MPs are back to haunt the party in what has been called “the most radioactive byelection in living memory”’

    As we have discussed many times, this is the required view, not just of Galloway, but of all dissidents challenging the status quo – they (and we) are all toxic ‘narcissists’. Thus, the BBC observed of Galloway, a ‘political maverick’:

    ‘To his critics and opponents, he is a dangerous egotist, someone who arouses division.’

    What percentage of Tory and Labour MPs under (and including) Sunak and Starmer are not dangerous egotists? Are the thousands of MPs who, decade after decade, line up to vote for US-UK resource wars of aggression of first resort, for action to exacerbate climate collapse, not dangerous egotists?  Of course they are, but they are not labelled that way. The only egotism perceived as ‘dangerous’ by our state-corporate media system is one that threatens biocidal, genocidal and suicidal state-corporate narcissism.

    We have to travel far from the ‘mainstream’ to read a more balanced view of Galloway. Former British ambassador Craig Murray commented:

    ‘I have known George Galloway my entire adult life, although we largely lost touch in the middle bit while I was off diplomating. I know George too well to mistake him for Jesus Christ, but he has been on the right side against appalling wars which the entire political class has cheer-led. His natural gifts of mellifluence and loquacity are unsurpassed, with an added talent for punchy phrase making.

    ‘… But outwith the public gaze George is humorous, kind and self-aware. He has been deeply involved in politics his entire life, and is a great believer in the democratic process as the ultimate way by which the working classes will ultimately take control of the means of production. He is a very old-fashioned and courteous form of socialist.’

    We strongly disagree with Galloway’s views on fossil fuel production and climate change – in fact, he blocked us on X for robustly but politely challenging him on these issues. Nevertheless, it is clear to us that Murray’s view of Galloway is far more reasonable.

    Neon-Lit Dark Age

    In ‘Brave New World Revisited’, Aldous Huxley wrote:

    ‘The victim of mind-manipulation does not know that he is a victim. To him, the walls of his prison are invisible, and he believes himself to be free.’ (Huxley, ‘Brave New World Revisited’, archive.org, 1958, p.109)

    This is certainly true of corporate journalists. Borrowing illiberally from authentically dissident media, a recurring Guardian appeal asks readers to support its heroic defence of Truth. The declared enemy:

    ‘Teams of lawyers from the rich and powerful trying to stop us publishing stories they don’t want you to see.

    ‘Lobby groups with opaque funding who are determined to undermine facts about the climate emergency and other established science.

    ‘Authoritarian states with no regard for the freedom of the press.

    ‘Bad actors spreading disinformation online to undermine democracy.

    ‘But we have something powerful on our side.

    ‘We’ve got you.

    ‘The Guardian is funded by its readers and the only person who decides what we publish is our editor.’

    They have indeed ‘got you’, many of you, and not in a good way. The real threat to truth in our time, quite obviously, is the fact that profit-maximising, ad-dependent corporate media like the Guardian cannot and will not report the truth of a world dominated by giant corporations. The declared aspiration is a sham, a form of niche marketing exploiting the gullible.

    The truth is that ‘mainstream’ media and politics are now captured in a way that is beyond anything we have previously seen. All around the world, political choices have been carefully fixed and filtered to ensure ordinary people are unable to challenge the endless wars, the determination to prioritise profits over climate action at any cost. The job of the corporate media system is to pretend the choices are real, to ensure the walls of the prison remain invisible.

    The only hope in this neon-lit Dark Age is genuinely independent media – the blogs and websites that are now being filtered, shadow-banned, buried and marginalised like never before.

    The post Chamber of Propaganda Horrors first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Media Lens.

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    North Korea sends officials to Iran amid suspected military cooperation https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/nkorea-iran-visit-04232024234802.html https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/nkorea-iran-visit-04232024234802.html#respond Wed, 24 Apr 2024 03:51:00 +0000 https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/nkorea-iran-visit-04232024234802.html A North Korean delegation led by the cabinet minister for international trade is visiting Iran, the North’s state-run media reported on Wednesday, amid suspicion Tehran used North Korean weapons technology for its attack on Israel.

    The minister for external economic relations, Yun Jong Ho, left Pyongyang on Tuesday by air leading a ministry delegation to Iran, the Korean Central News Agency said, without providing further details. 

    Yun, who previously worked on ties with Syria, has been active in North Korea’s increasing exchanges with Russia, this month leading a delegation on a visit to Moscow, KCNA added. 

    The North’s announcement comes after some experts raised the possibility that North Korean parts or military technology could have been used by Iran against Israel, following the launch of more than 300 drones and missiles on April 13. The experts cited close military cooperation between Pyongyang and Tehran.

    South Korea’s spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, said last Wednesday it was looking into whether the North’s weapons technology was used in the ballistic missiles that Iran launched against Israel. 

    “We are keeping tabs on whether the North Korean technology was included in Iran’s ballistic missiles launched against Israel, given the North and Iran’s missile cooperation in the past,” the NIS said.

    Separately, Matthew Miller, a U.S. State Department spokesperson, said last Tuesday that the United States was “incredibly concerned” about long-suspected military cooperation between North Korea and Iran.

    Having established diplomatic ties in 1973, North Korea and Iran have long been suspected of cooperating on ballistic missile programs, possibly exchanging technical expertise and components for their manufacture.

    A 2019 report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency showed Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missiles were developed based on North Korea’s midrange Rodong missiles. 

    The Khorramshahr missile that Iran has developed is also believed to be technically linked to North Korea’s Musudan missiles.

    North Korea has also been suspected of involvement in arms trade with Russia, although the two countries have denied that transfers have taken place.

    The NIS has said that since August, North Korea has made 10 weapons transfers of an estimated one million shells to Russia, according to the NIS, which is widely seen as an attempt by North Korea to boost its sagging economy amid aftermath of COVID-19 and international sanctions. 

    Other reports have suggested North Korea has delivered ballistic missiles to Russia’s military, citing U.S. satellite images.

    Edited by Mike Firn.


    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By RFA Staff.

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    Last Nation Standing ─ Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/23/last-nation-standing-%e2%94%80-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/23/last-nation-standing-%e2%94%80-iran/#respond Tue, 23 Apr 2024 22:05:04 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149954 By not responding to decades of Israel’s provocations with an attack on Israeli soil, Iran displayed patience. The Islamic Republic rulers realized the provocations were becoming harsher, more damaging, and without stopping; it was time to respond. Their response was notable; a mild rebuke that showed power and unwillingness to harm civilians, unlike the offensive […]

    The post Last Nation Standing ─ Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    By not responding to decades of Israel’s provocations with an attack on Israeli soil, Iran displayed patience. The Islamic Republic rulers realized the provocations were becoming harsher, more damaging, and without stopping; it was time to respond. Their response was notable; a mild rebuke that showed power and unwillingness to harm civilians, unlike the offensive attacks by Israel’s military and intelligence that have killed Iranian civilians and military personnel.

    Israel’s worldwide propaganda mechanism omits the tens of previous illegal and damaging attacks inflicted upon Iran and charges Iran with cruel and threatening behavior that requires a strong reply. Already, members of England’s parliament (MP) obeyed the Zionist call for action with outrageous pleas to assist Israel against “Iran’s genocidal actions,” and “attempt to interrupt the peace.”

    One person is injured and that is genocide. Tens of thousands of Gazans killed and no reference to genocide. Mayhem in the Middle East since the first Zionist set foot in Palestine and one relatively harmless attack disturbed the peace. Are these MPs real people or artificial intelligence? How can they run for office and be elected?

    A common thread exists in US actions of aggressive behavior toward nations that have not threatened the security of the United States, such as 21st-century Iraq and Iran. The common thread weaves nations that were or are antagonists of apartheid Israel. All, except Iran, have been subdued by the U.S. What Israel wants, Israel gets, and Israel convinced the United States to eliminate the foes of the Zionist Republic. Americans died and Americans paid for efforts that had scarce benefits to U.S. citizens. Iran is now the last nation standing and Israel is coercing the U.S. to perform its usual duty — get rid of Iran. Look at the record.

    Sudan

    Deposed Sudan leader, Omar al-Bashir, made it clear. “Israel is our enemy, our number one enemy, and we will continue calling Israel our enemy.” Israel also made its relationship with Bahir clear by destroying a Sudanese arms factory suspected of producing chemical weapons for Hamas. Times of Israel reports that “Over the years, there have been reports of the Israelis continuing to aid South Sudanese rebels during Sudan’s second civil war, which lasted from 1983 to 2005.” Israel’s assistance to the rebels enabled South Sudan to secede and weaken Bashir. The Times of Israel also reports that “Miniature Israeli flags hang from car windshields and flutter at roadside stalls, and at the Juba souk in the city’s downtown, you can buy lapel pins with the Israeli flag alongside its black, red and green South Sudanese counterpart.”

    Link of a car bomb at the World Trade Center in New York to Osama bin Laden, who resided in Sudan, prompted the US State Department to add Sudan to its list of state sponsors of terrorism. In October 1997, the U.S. imposed economic, trade, and financial sanctions on Sudan. These sanctions occurred despite none of the extremists engaging in terrorist activities while in Sudan. Bashir offered extradition or interviews of arrested al-Qaeda operatives and allowed access to the extensive files of Sudanese intelligence. According to a CIA source, reported in the Guardian, Sept 30, 2001, “This represents the worst single intelligence failure in this whole terrible business. It is the key to the whole thing right now. It is reasonable to say that had we had this data we may have had a better chance of preventing the attacks.”

    The U.S. Congress heightened the insurrection in Sudan’s Darfur province by passing amendment H.Con.Res.467 — 108th Congress (2003-2004), amended 07/22/2004, which “States that Congress declares that the atrocities unfolding in Darfur, Sudan, are genocide, and urges the Administration to refer to such atrocities as genocide.” The amendment gathered world opinion against the Sudanese government. Although the public accepted the figure of 400,000 killings of people in Darfur, this genocide had no verification of the number of killings, no displayed mass graves, and no images of a great number of bodies.

    Before he left the U.S. State Department, former US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick stated on ABC News online, November 9, 2005, “It’s a tribal war. And frankly I don’t think foreign forces want to get in the middle of a tribal war of Sudanese.”

    A peace agreement ended the second Sudanese civil war in 2005. On July 9, 2011, South Sudan became independent and reduced Sudan to a pipeline for South Sudan oil. After Sudan became a diminished state, barely able to survive, the United States lifted economic and trade sanctions. Independent South Sudan fared worse — involved in its civil war, human rights violations, and social and economic turmoil. Human Rights Watch (HRW) claimed [South Sudan] “Government security forces and armed groups perpetrated serious human rights abuses, including killings, acts of sexual violence, abductions, detention, torture and other ill-treatment, the recruitment and use of children, and destruction of civilian property.” The U.S. government did not criticize the human rights violations of the friend of Israel.

    On October 23, 2020, Israel and Sudan agreed to normalize relations
    On April 6, 2021, the Sudanese cabinet approved a bill abolishing the 1958 law on boycotting Israel.

    The once wealthy Sudan, flowing with minerals and gushing with oil had the possibility of becoming a strong and vibrant African nation. US policies of countering terrorism, assisting South Sudan rebels, and interfering in the Darfur civil war contributed to preventing that outcome and provided Israel with a friendly Sudan that no longer assisted the Palestinians.

    Libya

    Libya’s leader, Mohammar Qadhafi, has been quoted as saying on April 1, 2002, “Thousands of Libyans are ready to defend the Palestinian people.” In that speech he called for a Pan-Arab war against the state of Israel’s existence and demanded “other Arab leaders open their borders to allow Libyans to march into Palestine, to join the Palestinian uprising.” In the speech, Gaddafi claimed he would not recognize Israel as a state.

    The United States used Gadhafi’s support for radical revolutions as a reason to have strained relations with Libya. Sanctions soon followed. In March 1982, the U.S. Government prohibited imports of Libyan crude oil into the United States and expanded the controls on U.S. originated goods intended for export to Libya. Licenses were required for all transactions, except food and medicine. In April 1985, all Export-Import Bank financing was prohibited.

    On April 14, 1986, the United States launched air strikes against Libya in retaliation for “Libyan sponsorship of terrorism against American troops and citizens.” Five military targets and “terrorism centers” were hit, including Gadhafi’s headquarters.

    After Libya halted its nuclear program, renounced terrorism, accepted responsibility for inappropriate actions by its officials, and paid appropriate compensation to the victims’ families for the bombing of a US commercial airplane over Lockerbie, Scotland, the United Nations (UN) lifted sanctions, the U.S. terminated the applicability of the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act to Libya, and President Bush signed an Executive Order terminating the national emergency, which ended economic sanctions.  All was going well until 2011.

    Despite the lack of clarity of the 2011 rebellion against Gadhafi and specious reasons for NATO and US roles to defend the rebels, the U.S. government cut ties with the Gadhafi regime, sanctioned senior regime members, and, together with several European and Arab nations, managed to convince the UN Security Council to authorize intervention in the conflict. The intervention demolished the Gadhafi regime and enabled the rebels to obtain victory, another fallen nation that was an outspoken antagonist of Israel, and, still, in 2024, an embattled nation.

    Egypt

    On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel to reclaim territories they had lost in the Six-Day War. With Israeli troops seriously outnumbered and facing near-certain defeat at the hands of the Soviet-backed nations, President Nixon ordered an emergency airlift of supplies and materiel. “Send everything that will fly,” Nixon told Henry Kissinger. The American airlift enabled Israel to launch a decisive counterattack that pushed the Egyptians back across the Suez Canal.

    In a briefing,  Scuttle Diplomacy: Henry Kissinger and Arab-Israeli Peacemaking, by Salim Yaqub, Woodrow Wilson Center, Dr. Yaqub argued that “Kissinger’s pivotal role as the intermediary allowed him to feign neutrality while secretly supporting the Israelis, and to turn the peace negotiations into a long series of small confidence building steps which would give the appearance of progress that Egypt required to come to an agreement with Israel, but which would allow Israel to keep most of the Syrian and Palestinian land gained after the 1967 Six-Day War.”

    Prime Minister of Egypt, Anwar Sadat, signed a peace treaty with Israel, and the U.S. normalized relations with previously combative Egypt. The most populous and leading nation of the Arab world, the principal defender of Arab rights, which had waged several wars with Israel, no longer posed a threat to Israel and became a weakened observer to the hostilities affecting the Middle East.

    Syria

    Israel and Syria battled from day one of the UN 181 Proclamation that recommended partition of the British Mandate.

    The U.S. never favored the Assad regime and cut relations. After the September 11, 2001 attacks on U.S. soil, the Syrian Government tried limited cooperation with the U.S. War on Terror. Syrian intelligence alerted the U.S. of an Al-Qaeda plan to fly a hang glider loaded with explosives into the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Syria was also a destination for U.S. captives outside of its borders in its rendition program. According to U.S. officials, as reported by Nicholas Blanford, in a Special to The Christian Science Monitor, May 14, 2002, ”Syrian information was instrumental in catching militant Islamists around the world.”

    Syria’s descent into near oblivion started with its civil wars, in which foreign fighters (ISIS and al-Nusra) entered Syria from NATO’s Turkey (no retribution to Turkey for allowing ISIS to enter Syria), and a multitude of insurgents fought with and against one another until Assad, with assistance from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, overcame the insurgencies. WikiLeaks, in 2011, released diplomatic cables between the U.S. embassy in Damascus and the State Department, which revealed the U.S. had given financial support to political opposition groups and their related projects through September 2010.

    ISIS is defeated and a limping Assad government barely survives as a splintered nation. Bombed almost daily by Israeli missiles and planes, the hopelessly weak Syria cannot retaliate. With assistance from the U.S., Syria’s threat to Israel has been neutralized.

    Iraq

    Justifying the U.S. invasion of Iraq with a spurious reason that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and needed to be silenced was so absurd that another reason was sought. Security school scholars argued a joint threat of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and links to terrorist groups. Hegemony school scholars argued preservation and extension of U.S. hegemony, including the spread of liberal democratic ideals. When in doubt bring in liberal democratic ideals.

    The interventionists conveniently forgot that Saddam Hussein was a restraint to Iran and a deterrent to Radical Islamists. With Hussein removed, Iran lost its restraint. Bordering on Iraq and spiritually attached to Iraq’s Shi’a population, Iran became involved in the commercial, economic, and political future of Iraq, an event that U.S. strategists should have known.

    The invasion of Iraq and disposal of a Saddam Hussein regime, which had prevented al-Qaeda elements from establishing themselves, exposed Iraq’s porous borders to Radical Islamic fighters. Founded in October 2004, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) emerged from a transnational terrorist group created and led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. His cohorts entered through Jordan, while al-Qaeda forced out of Waziristan in Pakistan found a haven in Iraq. Meanwhile, fighters trained in and wandering through the deserts of Saudi Arabia hopped planes to Istanbul and Damascus and worked their way across Syria into Iraq. Disturbed by the U.S. invasion and military tactics, Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarrai, later known as Al Baghdadi, founder of the Islamic Caliphate, transformed himself from a fun-loving soccer player into a hardened militant and helped found the militant group Jamaat Jaysh Ahl al-Sunnah wa-l-Jamaah (JJASJ), which countered the U.S. military in Iraq.

    Spurious reasons and obvious counterproductive results leave doubts that the original explanation and rationales for the invasion were correct. A more valid reason involves the neocons in the Bush administration who were closely identified with Israel in the Pentagon, Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith, and the office of the vice president, Lewis ‘Scooter’ Libby, who aggressively advanced the case for the invasion. Some backups to that theory,

    Haaretz, Apr 03, 2003, “White Man’s Burden,” Ari Shavit, “The war in Iraq was conceived by 25 neoconservative intellectuals, most of them Jewish (ED: Avid Israel supporters), who were pushing President Bush to change the course of history.”

    In The Road to Iraq: The Making of a Neoconservative War, Muhammad Idrees Ahmad echoes the case.

    The road to Iraq was paved with neoconservative intentions. Other factions of the US foreign policy establishment were eventually brought around to supporting the war, but the neocons were its architects and chief proponents.

    Ahmad quotes a remark attributed to British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw. “It’s a toss-up whether Libby is working for the Israelis or the Americans on any given day.” He also quotes former New Republic editor Andrew Sullivan who contended, “The closer you examine it, the clearer it is that neoconservatism, in large part, is simply about enabling the most irredentist elements in Israel and sustaining a permanent war against anyone or any country who disagrees with the Israeli right.”

    A 1996 report, Clean Break, A New Strategy for Securing the Realm, prepared by neoconservatives at the Jerusalem-based think tank, Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, many of whom held vital positions in the George W. Bush administration, lends substance to the charge that the invasion of Iraq served Israel’s interests.

    We must distinguish soberly and clearly friend from foe. We must make sure that our friends across the Middle East never doubt the solidity or value of our friendship….Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions.

    Israel can make a clean break from the past and establish a new vision for the U.S.-Israeli partnership based on self-reliance, maturity and mutuality — not one focused narrowly on territorial disputes. Israel’s new strategy — based on a shared philosophy of peace through strength — reflects continuity with Western values by stressing that Israel is self-reliant, does not need U.S. troops in any capacity to defend it, including on the Golan Heights, and can manage its own affairs. Such self-reliance will grant Israel greater freedom of action and remove a significant lever of pressure used against it in the past.

    Participants in the Study Group included Richard Perle, American Enterprise Institute, Study Group Leader, James Colbert, Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, Charles Fairbanks, Jr., Johns Hopkins University/SAIS, Douglas Feith, Feith and Zell Associates, Robert Loewenberg, President, Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, Jonathan Torop, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, David Wurmser, Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, and Meyrav Wurmser, Johns Hopkins University.

    Richard Perle, Douglas Feith, and David Wurmser later served in high positions in the George W. Bush administration at the time of the Iraq invasion. The others were allied with organizations that promoted Israel’s interests.

    Two observations:
    (1)    Why were Americans prominent in an Israeli Think Tank and why were they advising a foreign nation?
    (2)    Note that the thrust of the report is to advise Israel to have a “clean break from the past and establish a new vision for the U.S.-Israeli partnership based on self-reliance, maturity, and mutuality.” This has been the modus operandi of the Netanyahu administrations.

    Another ember that warmed the neocon’s heartfelt devotion to Israel; The Project for the New American Century urged an invasion of Iraq throughout the Clinton years. “Bombing Iraq Isn’t enough. Saddam Hussein must go,” William Kristol and Robert Kagan, PNAC neocon directors wrote in the 1998 New York Times.

    No “smoking gun” firmly ties the neocons devoted to Israel together with using the United States military to eliminate another Israel antagonist. The argument is based upon it being the best, most factual, and only reason the war could have been wanted.

    Iran – Last Nation Standing

    The Islamic Republic may not be an exemplary nation, but there is no evidence or reason for the U.S. accusations that Iran is a destabilizing, expansionist nation, or leading sponsor of international terrorism. Why would it be – there are no external resources or land masses that would be helpful to Iran’s economy, Iran has not invaded any nation, and its few sea and drone attacks on others are reactions from a perception that others have colluded in harming the Islamic Republic and its allies. Ayatollah Khomeini’s vision of expanding his social ideology never got anywhere and died with him. Subsequent leaders have been forced to reach out to defend their interests and those of their friends, but none of these leaders has pursued an expansionist philosophy or wants the burden that accompanies the task — enough problems at home.

    No matter what Iran does, the US perceives Iran as an enemy and a threat to not only the Middle East but to world order. All this hostility, despite the facts that (1) the Iranians showed willingness to create a new Afghanistan by pledging $560 million worth of assistance, almost equal to the amount that the United States pledged at the Tokyo donors’ conference in January 2002, (2) according to the U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Dobbins, played a “decisive role in persuading the Northern Alliance delegation to compromise its demands of wanting 60 percent of the portfolios in an interim government,” (3) Iran arrested Al-Qaeda agents on its territory and, because Al-Qaeda linked the Shiite Muslims, represented by Iran and Hezbollah, with Crusaders, Zionists, and Jews as its most bitter enemies, had ample reason to combat terrorist organizations, and (4) Iran has no reason for or capability of attacking the U.S .or its western allies.

    Being vilified for inadequate reasons is followed by Iran not being praised for significant reasons. President Trump, in his January 8, 2020 speech, argued the U.S. had been responsible for defeating ISIS and the Islamic Republic should realize that it is in their benefit to work with the United States in making sure ISIS remains defeated. Trade the U.S. with Iran and Trump’s speech would be correct.

    The U.S. spent years and billions of dollars in training an Iraqi army that fled Mosul and left it to a small contingent of ISIS forces. Showing no will and expertise to fight, Iraq’s debilitated military permitted ISIS to rapidly expand and conquer Tikrit and other cities. Events energized Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, which, with cooperation from Iran and leadership from its Major General Qasem Soleimani, recaptured Tikrit and Ramadi, pushed ISIS out of Fallujah, and played a leading role in ISIS’ defeat at Mosul. Iran and Soleimani were key elements in the defeat of ISIS.

    What reward did Solemani receive for his efforts? When his convoy left Baghdad airport, a drone strike, perpetrated by U.S. military, assassinated Major General Solemani and nine other innocent people on January 3, 2002. UN’s special rapporteur on extrajudicial killings, Agnes Callamard, reported the U.S. had not provided sufficient evidence of an imminent threat to life to justify the attack.

    As usual, Israel used the U.S. to satisfy its desires. “Israel was going to do this with us, and it was being planned and working on it for months,” President Trump said about the coordination to kill Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force. “We had everything all set to go, and the night before it happened, I got a call that Israel will not be participating in this attack. I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down. We were disappointed by that. Very disappointed…But we did the job ourselves, with absolute precision … and then Bibi tried to take credit for it.”

    Why do these protectors of the realm want Iran destroyed — they fear Iran may act as a deterrent to their future aggression. Iran cannot win a war with a nuclear weapon or any weapons; it can only posture and threaten use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Its principal antagonists, Israel, United States, and Saudi Arabia have elements that shield themselves from a nuclear attack by Iran. Israel’s small size makes it likely that fallout from a nuclear weapon will endanger the entire region, especially Iran’s allies. Any nuclear strike on Israel will be countered with a torrent of nuclear missiles that will completely wipe large Iran off the map and without fallout causing harm to neighboring nations. With little to gain and everything to lose, why would Iran engage in nuclear aggression?

    Netanyahu’s scenario follows a pattern of using American lives and clout to further Israel’s interests and decimate its adversaries. Survey the record — destruction of Iraq, destruction of Sudan, destruction of Libya, destruction of Egypt, destruction of Syria. and now Iran. Only Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries will be left standing, remaining in that position as long as they show no threat to Israel.

    The destructions visited upon the described nations have done little to advance US security and economy. Therefore, the reason for the actions and US support of Israel must be political —politicians coopted by catering to the religious right community and other Israel defenders. US administrations are willing to sacrifice American lives and give exorbitant financial assistance to Israel in trade for electoral support from Israel’s backers.

    The present confrontations between Iran and Israel have escalated. Those who believe Israel’s few drones over Isfahan concluded retaliation for Iran’s excessive number of missiles and harmless result in the attack on Israel might be mistaken. The drones may have only tested Iranian defensive capability. More, much more provocations may happen.

    Due to US aggressive tactics, the antagonists to Israel have fallen and Iran is the last nation standing.

    The post Last Nation Standing ─ Iran first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Iran arrests Kurdish editor-in-chief, Iranian cartoonist, sues several newspapers https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/22/iran-arrests-kurdish-editor-in-chief-iranian-cartoonist-sues-several-newspapers/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/22/iran-arrests-kurdish-editor-in-chief-iranian-cartoonist-sues-several-newspapers/#respond Mon, 22 Apr 2024 21:21:28 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=381605 Washington, D.C., April 19, 2024—Iranian authorities must immediately release Kurdish-Iranian journalist Rasoul Galehban and drop any charges against him, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Monday.

    Galehban, the publisher and the editor-in-chief of Urmiye24 Kurdish News, was arrested by the Iran’s Cyber Police Unit in the city of Urmia, in West Azerbaijan province, on April 8, according to news reports.

    According to CPJ research, the Urmiye24 website was suspended as soon as Galehban was arrested. According to news reports, Galehban was arrested after the office of Urmia’s Prosecutor General filed a lawsuit against him. CPJ was unable to determine where Galehban was being held or whether he had been formally charged.

    Iranian cartoonist Atena Faraghdani was arrested violently again on April 14, according to a post by her lawyer, Mohammad Moghimi, on X, formerly known as Twitter.

    According to a separate post by Moghimi, security forces arrested Faraghdani when she was trying to exhibit some of her critical cartoons publicly in the street. She was beaten in the head multiple times at the time of arrest, resulting in a nose bleed. She fainted, and later found herself in detention.

    According to the report, Faraghdani is banned from publishing her cartoons or holding any exhibitions. According to her lawyer, the cartoonist was charged with “spreading propaganda against the system” and “blasphemy.”

    “Iranian authorities are desperate to silence the truthful voices and now imprisoned journalist Rasoul Galehban and cartoonist Atena Faraghdani,” said CPJ Program Director Carlos Martínez de la Serna in New York  “Authorities must realize that jailing journalists and critical voices won’t help them in hiding Iran’s difficult realities, and they must immediately release Galehban, Faraghdani, and all jailed journalists.”

    On April 15, the office of Tehran’s Prosecutor General filed multiple lawsuits against several newspapers, including the economic daily Jahane Sanat, the moderate state-run Etemad, and journalists Abbas Abdi, the head of the Tehran Journalists Association, and Hossein Dehbashi, a media worker, charging them with “disturbing public opinion,” according to news reports.

    Dina Ghalibaf was also arrested on April 15 after reporting on social media about the sexual abuse and violent treatment of herself and other women by morality police agents, amid increased presence of compulsory hijab police forces to enforce Islamic hijab in big cities such as the capital, Tehran.

    Ghalibaf, a freelance journalist who has previously worked with the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), was scheduled to be temporarily released on bail from Evin prison on Monday. But authorities announced to her family that a new case has opened against her questioning her claims of sexual assault.

    CPJ emailed Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment on the above-mentioned cases but did not receive any response.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Arlene Getz/CPJ Editorial Director.

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    The Chilling Reason Why Iran Attacked Israel [TEASER] https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/20/the-chilling-reason-why-iran-attacked-israel-teaser/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/20/the-chilling-reason-why-iran-attacked-israel-teaser/#respond Sat, 20 Apr 2024 12:03:00 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=5ba78f8ccf507466358cec3c50e52198 House Speaker Mike Johnson, self-proclaimed champion for human rights and freedom, and enemy of dictators everywhere, inched closer to getting Ukraine aid after eight months of successfully delaying it, empowering Russia’s genocide. Kremlin state TV repeatedly praised Johnson for assisting their brutal invasion, which, as discussed in this week’s bonus show, emboldened Iran to unleash a shocking swarm of drones and missiles against Israel.

    The Ukraine aid package still faces delays, thanks to MAGA, and will have to go back to the Senate before it reaches President Biden’s desk. The Trump-proposed changes, of structuring some of the aid as a loan, can be forgiven by the President, including partial loan forgiveness by Biden on his way out, should he lose the election. If Trump wins, he could force Ukraine to repay what’s left of the loan and refuse to send ATACMS, the long-range missiles that have made Ukraine effective at blowing up Russian planes and other military targets that slaugher civilians. The compromise in this aid package, far less than what Ukraine actually needs to win the war, adds to the urgency to ensure Trump loses the electoral college. It’s going to be a nailbiter, for America and the world. 

    This week’s bonus show includes reports that Paul Manafort is back to help Trump (and Russia) win the 2024 election. Russian mafia expert Olga Lautman and analyst Monique Camarra of the Kremlin File podcast join Andrea to discuss Manafort’s dark arts and how they may help Trump and Russia illegally hijack our democracy once again.

    Ari Berman of Mother Jones stops by Gaslit Nation next week to discuss his new must-read book Minority Rule: The Right-Wing Attack on the Will of the People—and the Fight to Resist It. Ari will share his insights on how we got here and what must be done to save our democracy.

    Want to hear the full episode? Join a community of listeners and get bonus shows, all episodes ad free, submit questions to our regular Q&As, get exclusive invites to live events, and more by subscribing at the Truth-teller level or higher on Patreon.com/Gaslit! 

    Thank you to everyone who supports the show – we could not make Gaslit Nation without you! 

    Show Notes:

     

    Johnson’s plan to send aid to Ukraine moves closer to reality “Democrats will not be responsible for this bill failing,” one Democratic lawmaker pledged on Thursday morning. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/18/johnson-plan-send-aid-ukraine-moves-closer-becoming-reality/

     

    Putin Ally Declares Mike Johnson 'Our Johnson' https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-declares-mike-johnson-our-johnson-1890071

     

    Europe is already planning for what happens if Ukraine loses. It’s ugly A newly energized Russia is already escalating grey-zone operations in Eastern Europe, says Estonia’s defense minister. https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/04/europe-already-planning-what-happens-if-ukraine-loses-its-ugly/395715/

     

    Why Did U.S. Planes Defend Israel but Not Ukraine? There are lessons for other nations in the events of the past few days. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/04/ukraine-israel-war-comparison/678077/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK3zBTrwyTVOGzmWK5yps1Kck&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

     

    U.S., NOT ISRAEL, SHOT DOWN MOST IRAN DRONES AND MISSILES American forces did most of the heavy lifting responding to Iran’s retaliation for the attack on its embassy in Damascus. https://theintercept.com/2024/04/15/iran-attack-israel-drones-missiles/

     

    How Israel and allied defenses intercepted more than 300 Iranian missiles and drones https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/14/middleeast/israel-air-missile-defense-iran-attack-intl-hnk-ml

     

    To be clear, if someone does trigger a motion to vacate -- anyone, MTG or Massie -- it would be incredibly perilous for Johnson. But remember: the first step is a motion to table. And Democrats could vote to table, and that's that. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1780240955196539137

     

    Why Israel’s attack on Iranian consulate in Syria was a gamechanger Peter Beaumont and Emma Graham-Harrison A war long fought through proxies, assassinations and strikes outside Israel has spilled into the open https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/why-israel-attack-on-iranian-consulate-in-syria-was-a-gamechanger

     

    Video Shows Ukrainian Plane Being Hit Over Iran The New York Times has obtained video of the moment a Ukrainian airliner was hit minutes after takeoff from Tehran. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

     

    The Great Oligarchs Escape: ‘The Ground Is Trembling. They Will Stream Into Israel' As Ukraine war rages and the West tightens the screws on Russian oligarchs, many of them look to Israel to escape. Some hold Israeli citizenship, exactly for these kinds of circumstances. Billionaires will benefit from Israeli law, allowing them to hide sources of income for a 10-year period https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-03-10/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/the-great-oligarchs-escape-the-ground-is-trembling-they-will-stream-into-israel/0000017f-f2d9-df98-a5ff-f3fd182d0000

     

    EXCLUSIVE: Ukrainian President @ZelenskyyUa said he spoke to lawmakers and the president about Ukraine’s urgent need for wartime aid and stressed “please just make a decision,” during an interview with @IAmAmnaNawaz. Stream more tonight at 6 ET online: https://to.pbs.org/3MzB3rB https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1779985953966219589


    This content originally appeared on Gaslit Nation and was authored by Andrea Chalupa.

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    Explosions Reported In Iran After Suspected Israeli Strike https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/19/explosions-reported-in-iran-after-suspected-israeli-strike/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/19/explosions-reported-in-iran-after-suspected-israeli-strike/#respond Fri, 19 Apr 2024 13:41:54 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=17d8cb4502d31eef59c88637c1d4663f
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/19/explosions-reported-in-iran-after-suspected-israeli-strike/feed/ 0 470614
    Israel Considers Attacking Iran and Invading Rafah as Netanyahu Seeks Lifelines to Stay in Power https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/18/israel-considers-attacking-iran-and-invading-rafah-as-netanyahu-seeks-lifelines-to-stay-in-power/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/18/israel-considers-attacking-iran-and-invading-rafah-as-netanyahu-seeks-lifelines-to-stay-in-power/#respond Thu, 18 Apr 2024 14:38:36 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2e902c2e05fdcdb0341416c07c230c09
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/18/israel-considers-attacking-iran-and-invading-rafah-as-netanyahu-seeks-lifelines-to-stay-in-power/feed/ 0 470432
    Israel Considers Attacking Iran and Invading Rafah as Netanyahu Seeks Lifelines to Stay in Power https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/18/israel-considers-attacking-iran-and-invading-rafah-as-netanyahu-seeks-lifelines-to-stay-in-power-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/18/israel-considers-attacking-iran-and-invading-rafah-as-netanyahu-seeks-lifelines-to-stay-in-power-2/#respond Thu, 18 Apr 2024 12:52:11 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=b9bac7326273a9348796df07e34dad9d Seg3 israeliranmissile

    New reporting indicates that the Biden administration has approved Israel’s plan to attack Rafah in exchange for Israel not launching counterstrikes on Iran. “Israel is almost certainly going to respond to the Iranian strike in some way,” says Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israel analyst for the International Crisis Group. Now “it has the benefit of being able to dangle both threats”: an invasion on Rafah that would heavily increase the death toll of Palestinians in Gaza, or an attack on Iran that would likely spark a wider regional war. While Israeli approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has drastically waned, Zonszein suggests that its military campaign shows no signs of stopping. “Israeli society is largely a right-wing society. It is a society that has not spoken about or thought about Palestinians or the occupation except when it’s forced to. And it’s a society that has gotten used to acting with impunity.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    The West now wants “restraint” after months of fuelling a genocide in Gaza https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/17/the-west-now-wants-restraint-after-months-of-fuelling-a-genocide-in-gaza/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/17/the-west-now-wants-restraint-after-months-of-fuelling-a-genocide-in-gaza/#respond Wed, 17 Apr 2024 09:46:43 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149811 Suddenly, western politicians from US President Joe Biden to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have become ardent champions of “restraint” – in a very last-minute scramble to avoid regional conflagration. Iran launched a salvo of drones and missiles at Israel at the weekend in what amounted a largely symbolic show of strength. Many appear to have been […]

    The post The West now wants “restraint” after months of fuelling a genocide in Gaza first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Suddenly, western politicians from US President Joe Biden to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have become ardent champions of “restraint” – in a very last-minute scramble to avoid regional conflagration.

    Iran launched a salvo of drones and missiles at Israel at the weekend in what amounted a largely symbolic show of strength. Many appear to have been shot down, either by Israel’s layers of US-funded interception systems or by US, British and Jordanian fighter jets. No one was killed.

    It was the first direct attack by a state on Israel since Iraq fired Scud missiles during the Gulf war of 1991.

    The United Nations Security Council was hurriedly pressed into session on Sunday, with Washington and its allies calling for a de-escalation of tensions that could all too easily lead to the outbreak of war across the Middle East and beyond.

    “Neither the region nor the world can afford more war,” the UN’s secretary general, Antonio Guterres, told the meeting. “Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate.”

    Israel, meanwhile, vowed to “exact the price” against Iran at a time of its choosing.

    But the West’s abrupt conversion to “restraint” needs some explaining.

    After all, western leaders showed no restraint when Israel bombed Iran’s consulate in Damascus two weeks ago, killing a senior general and more than a dozen other Iranians – the proximate cause of Tehran’s retaliation on Saturday night.

    Under the Vienna Convention, the consulate is not only a protected diplomatic mission but is viewed as sovereign Iranian territory. Israel’s attack on it was an unbridled act of aggression – the “supreme international crime”, as the Nuremberg tribunal ruled at the end of the Second World War.

    For that reason, Tehran invoked article 51 of the United Nations charter, which allows it to act in self-defence.

    Shielding Israel

    And yet, rather than condemning Israel’s dangerous belligerence – a flagrant attack on the so-called “rules-based order” so revered by the US – western leaders lined up behind Washington’s favourite client state.

    At a Security Council meeting on 4 April, the US, Britain and France intentionally spurned restraint by blocking a resolution that would have condemned Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate – a vote that, had it not been stymied, might have sufficed to placate Tehran.

    At the weekend, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron still gave the thumbs-up to Israel’s flattening of Iran’s diplomatic premises, saying he could “completely understand the frustration Israel feels” – though he added, without any hint of awareness of his own hypocrisy, that the UK “would take very strong action” if a country bombed a British consulate.

    The foreign secretary is asked about Israel bombing the Iranian consulate in Syria & he says he understands Israels frustration!

    Hes then asked what the UK would do if another country flattened one of our consulates & he says we would take very strong action pic.twitter.com/l3E0A8gzri

    — Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) April 15, 2024

    By shielding Israel from any diplomatic consequences for its act of war against Iran, the western powers ensured Tehran would have to pursue a military response instead.

    But it did not end there. Having stoked Iran’s sense of grievance at the UN, Biden vowed “iron-clad” support for Israel – and grave consequences for Tehran – should it dare to respond to the attack on its consulate.

    Iran ignored those threats. On Saturday night, it launched some 300 drones and missiles, at the same time protesting vociferously about the Security Council’s “inaction and silence, coupled with its failure to condemn the Israeli regime’s aggressions”.

    Western leaders failed to take note. They again sided with Israel and denounced Tehran. At Sunday’s Security Council meeting, the same three states – the US, UK and France – that had earlier blocked a statement condemning Israel’s attack on Iran’s diplomatic mission, sought a formal condemnation of Tehran for its response.

    Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, ridiculed what he called “a parade of Western hypocrisy and double standards”. He added: “You know very well that an attack on a diplomatic mission is a casus belli under international law. And if Western missions were attacked, you would not hesitate to retaliate and prove your case in this room.”

    There was no restraint visible either as the West publicly celebrated its collusion with Israel in foiling Iran’s attack.

    British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak praised RAF pilots for their “bravery and professionalism” in helping to “protect civilians” in Israel.

    In a statement, Keir Starmer, leader of the supposedly opposition Labour party, condemned Iran for generating “fear and instability”, rather than “peace and security”, that risked stoking a “wider regional war”. His party, he said, would “stand up for Israel’s security”.

    My statement on the Iranian regime’s attack on Israel. pic.twitter.com/8vth7Aok5E

    — Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) April 13, 2024

    The “restraint” the West demands relates only, it seems, to Iran’s efforts to defend itself.

    Starving to death

    Given the West’s new-found recognition of the need for caution, and the obvious dangers of military excess, now may be the time for its leaders to consider demanding restraint more generally – and not just to avoid a further escalation between Iran and Israel.

    Over the past six months Israel has bombed Gaza into rubble, destroyed its medical facilities and government offices, and killed and maimed many, many tens of thousands of Palestinians. In truth, such is the devastation that Gaza some time ago lost the ability to count its dead and wounded.

    At the same time, Israel has intensified its 17-year blockade of the tiny enclave to the point where, so little food and water are getting through, the population are in the grip of famine. People, especially children, are literally starving to death.

    The International Court of Justice, the world’s highest court, chaired by an American judge, ruled back in January – when the situation was far less dire than it is now – that a “plausible” case had been made Israel was committing genocide, a crime against humanity strictly defined in international law.

    And yet there were no calls by western leaders for “restraint” as Israel bombed Gaza into ruins week after week, striking its hospitals, levelling its government offices, blowing up its universities, mosques and churches, and destroying its bakeries.

    Rather, President Biden has repeatedly rushed through emergency arms sales, bypassing Congress, to make sure Israel has enough bombs to keep destroying Gaza and killing its children.

    When Israeli leaders vowed to treat Gaza’s population like “human animals”, denying them all food, water and power, western politicians gave their assent.

    Sunak was not interested in recruiting his brave RAF pilots to “protect civilians” in Gaza from Israel, and Starmer showed no concern about the “fear and instability” felt by Palestinians from Israel’s reign of terror.

    Quite the reverse. Starmer, famed as a human rights lawyer, even gave his approval to Israel’s collective punishment of the people of Gaza, its “complete siege”, as integral to a supposed Israeli “right of self-defence”.

    In doing so, he overturned one of the most fundamental principles of international law that civilians should not be targeted for the actions of their leaders. As is now all too apparent, he conferred a death sentence on the people of Gaza.

    Where was “restraint” then?

    Missing in action

    Similarly, restraint went out of the window when Israel fabricated a pretext for eradicating the UN aid agency UNRWA, the last lifeline for Gaza’s starving population.

    Even though Israel was unable to offer any evidence for its claim that a handful of UNRWA staff were implicated in an attack on Israel on 7 October, western leaders hurriedly cut off funding to the agency. In doing so, they became actively complicit in what the World Court already feared was a genocide.

    Where was the restraint when Israeli officials – with a long history of lying to advance their state’s military agenda – made up stories about Hamas beheading babies, or carrying out systematic rapes on 7 October? All of this was debunked by an Al Jazeera investigation drawing largely on Israeli sources.

    Those genocide-justifying deceptions were all too readily amplified by western politicians and media.

    Israel showed no restraint in destroying Gaza’s hospitals, or taking hostage and torturing thousands of Palestinians it grabbed off the street.

    All of that got a quiet nod from western politicians.

    Where was the restraint in western capitals when protesters took to the streets to call for a ceasefire, to stop Israel’s bloodletting of women and children, the majority of Gaza’s dead? The demonstrators were smeared – are still smeared – by western politicians as supporters of terrorism and antisemites.

    And where was the demand for restraint when Israel tore up the rulebook on the laws of war, allowing every would-be strongman to cite the West’s indulgence of Israeli atrocities as the precedent justifying their own crimes?

    On each occasion, when it favoured Israel’s malevolent goals, the West’s commitment to “restraint” went missing in action.

    Top-dog client state

    There is a reason why Israel has been so ostentatious in its savaging of Gaza and its people. And it is the very same reason Israel felt emboldened to violate the diplomatic sanctity of Iran’s consulate in Damascus.

    Because for decades Israel has been guaranteed protection and assistance from the West, whatever crimes it commits.

    Israel’s founders ethnically cleansed much of Palestine in 1948, far beyond the terms of partition set out by the UN a year earlier. It imposed a military occupation on the remnants of historic Palestine in 1967, driving out yet more of the native population. It then imposed a regime of apartheid on the few areas where Palestinians remained.

    In their West Bank reservations, Palestinians have been systematically brutalised, their homes demolished, and illegal Jewish settlements built on their land. The Palestinians’ holy places have been gradually surrounded and taken from them.

    Separately, Gaza has been sealed off for 17 years, and its population denied freedom of movement, employment and the basics of life.

    Israel’s reign of terror to maintain its absolute control has meant imprisonment and torture are a rite of passage for most Palestinian men. Any protest is ruthlessly crushed.

    Now Israel has added mass slaughter in Gaza – genocide – to its long list of crimes.

    Israel’s displacements of Palestinians to neighbouring states caused by its ethnic cleansing operations and slaughter have destabilised the wider region. And to secure its militarised settler-colonial project in the Middle East – and its place as Washington’s top-dog client state in the region – Israel has intimidated, bombed and invaded its neighbours on a regular basis.

    Its attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was just the latest of serial humiliations faced by Arab states.

    And through all of this, Washington and its vassal states have directed no more than occasional, lip-service calls for restraint towards Israel. There were never any consequences, but instead rewards from the West in the form of endless billions in aid and special trading status.

    ‘Something rash’

    So why, after decades of debauched violence from Israel, has the West suddenly become so interested in “restraint”? Because on this rare occasion it serves western interests to calm the fires Israel is so determined to stoke.

    The Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate came just as the Biden administration was finally running out of excuses for providing the weapons and diplomatic cover that has allowed Israel to slaughter, maim and orphan tens of thousands of Palestinian children in Gaza over six months.

    Demands for a ceasefire and arms embargo on Israel have been reaching fever pitch, with Biden haemorrhaging support among parts of his Democratic base as he faces a re-run presidential election later this year against a resurgent rival, Donald Trump.

    Small numbers of votes could be the difference between victory and defeat.

    Israel had every reason to fear that its patron might soon pull the rug from under its campaign of mass slaughter in Gaza.

    But having destroyed the entire infrastructure needed to support life in the enclave, Israel needs time for the consequences to play out: either mass starvation there, or a relocation of the population elsewhere on supposedly “humanitarian” grounds.

    A wider war, centred on Iran, would both distract from Gaza’s desperate plight and force Biden to back Israel unconditionally – to make good on his “iron-clad” commitment to Israel’s protection.

    And to top it all, with the US drawn directly into a war against Iran, Washington would have little choice but to assist Israel in its long campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear energy programme.

    Israel wants to remove any potential for Iran to develop a bomb, one that would level the military playing field between the two in ways that would make Israel far less certain that it can continue to act as it pleases across the region with impunity.

    That is why Biden officials are airing concerns to the US media that Israel is ready to “do something rash” in an attempt to drag the administration into a wider war.

    The truth is, however, that Washington long ago cultivated Israel as its military Frankenstein’s monster. Israel’s role was precisely to project US power ruthlessly into the oil-rich Middle East. The price Washington was more than willing to accept was Israel’s eradication of the Palestinian people, replaced by a fortress “Jewish state”.

    Calling for Israel to exercise “restraint” now, as its entrenched lobbies flex their muscles meddling in western politics, and self-confessed fascists rule Israel’s government, is beyond parody.

    If the West really prized restraint, they should have insisted on it from Israel decades ago.

    • Article first published in Middle East Eye

    The post The West now wants “restraint” after months of fuelling a genocide in Gaza first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Jonathan Cook.

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    Iran and the US Say Enough, Will Israel Go Along? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/16/iran-and-the-us-say-enough-will-israel-go-along/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/16/iran-and-the-us-say-enough-will-israel-go-along/#respond Tue, 16 Apr 2024 06:00:31 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=319188 he conventional wisdom in the United States is that Iran has conducted a “blatant and powerful act of direct war” against Israel.  However, the Iranian attack has been a long time coming in view of the past ten years of Israel’s cyberwar against Iran; the assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientists on Iranian territory; and the killing of at least 18 Iranian generals and military commanders.  The drone and missile attack on April 13th was carefully calibrated to target the Nevatim air base in southern Israel, which is Israel’s largest air base, as well as the Golan Heights.  The F-35s that attacked the Iranian “consulate” in Damascus flew from that base in southern Israel and they flew over the Golan Heights.   More

    The post Iran and the US Say Enough, Will Israel Go Along? appeared first on CounterPunch.org.

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    Iranian missiles passing over w:Al-Aqsa after IRGC hit Israel with multiple airstrikes. Photograph Source: Mehr News Agency – CC BY 4.0

    First, the good news.  U.S. military and intelligence operations in the Middle East over the past weekend operated at high levels of efficiency.  The U.S. had premonitory intelligence from Turkey as well as the Swiss who manage U.S. diplomatic contacts with Iran.  U.S. CENTOM commander, General Michael Kurilla, and his senior staff were sent to Israel and helped to coordinate the interception of Iran’s drones and missiles.  The British and the French were also involved in the intercept operation, which means that Israel should stop messaging that it is alone in the fight against Iran.  

    Even Jordan took part in the campaign against Iran, which was incredibly courageous in view of the large Palestinian population in the Hashemite Kingdom.  Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also appeared to be sympathetic with Israel regarding Iran’s use of force.  

    President Joe Biden was at his best in the 48 hours that really mattered.  Most importantly, Biden has advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take the win” and  desist from any retaliation.  Biden has scored important diplomatic points over the past two weeks by emphasizing the need for greater humanitarian aid to be delivered to Gaza and for Israel to be more humane in its horrific military campaign against a tortured Palestinian population.  U.S. support should allow Netanyahu to stand up to his right-wing and messianic coalition that advocates an Israel from the “river to the sea.”

    Ironically, Iran at the moment is part of the “good news” story.  The conventional wisdom in the United States is that Iran has conducted a “blatant and powerful act of direct war” against Israel.  However, the Iranian attack has been a long time coming in view of the past ten years of Israel’s cyberwar against Iran; the assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientists on Iranian territory; and the killing of at least 18 Iranian generals and military commanders.  The drone and missile attack on April 13th was carefully calibrated to target the Nevatim air base in southern Israel, which is Israel’s largest air base, as well as the Golan Heights.  The F-35s that attacked the Iranian “consulate” in Damascus flew from that base in southern Israel and they flew over the Golan Heights.  

    Iran apparently had no intention to cause civilian casualties and gave ample warning of its plans, which allowed the U.S.-Israeli coordination to take place.  Like President Biden, the Iranian leadership has stated that Tehran’s military operation is over and that no additional military force will be applied.  It is clear that the Iranians calibrated and telegraphed their operation, and that the use of absurdly slow-flying drones was largely performative.  It appears that Iran has no interest in a wider regional war, but that national pride required a response to Netanyahu’s reckless attack in Damascus on April 1st against a consulate building that claimed diplomatic immunity.

    Now the bad news.  The Iran-Israeli war is no longer a so-called shadow war.  Israeli decision making has now failed miserably on two major fronts.  Netanyahu’s unwillingness to take Hamas seriously allowed the horrific events of October 7th, which marked the greatest civilian losses in Israel’s history.  And Netanyahu’s attack in Damascus at a time when domestic Israeli elements as well as a number of international actors were trying for a deescalation of the war with Hamas marked a strategic setback for Israel.  Netanyahu’s war has become a moral and military failure, and he was wrong from the start in not giving the highest priority to release of the hostages.  He continues to place additional obstacles in the way of gaining the release of more than 100 hostages in the hands of Hamas, Palestinian Jihad, and possibly others.

    Unfortunately, Israeli hard-liners as well as many war hawks in the United States who have wanted to avenge the U.S. hostage crisis since 1979 will increase their demands for retaliation against Iran.  If the Gaza War should become secondary to a greater Iran-Israeli War and an even larger regional war, the political and military casualties will be far greater and could weaken Biden’s chances for reelection in November 2024.  If Netanyahu believes that only continued war can help his own chances of political survival, then the risk of escalation remains great.  The fact that Netanyahu is taking credit at home for standing up to Biden and the United States does not augur well for the near term.

    Biden should stand up to Netanyahu and correct the serious U.S. mistakes of the past.  These include doing Israel’s bidding in Lebanon in the 1980s; providing arms to Iran in the Iran-Contra operation of the 1980s; declaring Iran to be part of an “axis of evil” when Tehran was cooperating with the United States in Afghanistan; the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003; and of course the U.S. complicity with Israel’s genocidal campaign against Gaza over the past six months.  The emphasis now should be on a cease fire in Gaza; release of the hostages; a surge of humanitarian assistance to Gaza; and talks with Iran that could lead to diplomatic recognition.  

    The absence of any damage to Israel from Iran’s attack has provided an opening for a diplomatic effort.  Israel has an opportunity to end its diplomatic isolation if it demonstrates restraint, and the United States has an opportunity to use its leverage in the region.  There is probably no opening for a “modus vivendi” with Iran, but it is possible to reach out to Tehran, which faces serious domestic problems and has no stomach for a wider war.  This will require Biden to stand up to Netanyahu and to take serious diplomatic steps in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf that include the start of an U.S.-Iranian dialogue. 

    The post Iran and the US Say Enough, Will Israel Go Along? appeared first on CounterPunch.org.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Melvin Goodman.

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    Suspending the Rule of Tolerable Violence: Israel’s Attack and Iran’s Retaliation https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/16/suspending-the-rule-of-tolerable-violence-israels-attack-and-irans-retaliation/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/16/suspending-the-rule-of-tolerable-violence-israels-attack-and-irans-retaliation/#respond Tue, 16 Apr 2024 05:06:48 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149784 The Middle East has, for some time, been a powder keg where degrees of violence are tolerated with ceremonial mania and a calculus of restraint.  Assassinations can take place at a moment’s notice.  Revenge killings follow with dashing speed.  Suicide bombings of immolating power are carried out.  Drone strikes of devastating, collective punishment are ordered, […]

    The post Suspending the Rule of Tolerable Violence: Israel’s Attack and Iran’s Retaliation first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    The Middle East has, for some time, been a powder keg where degrees of violence are tolerated with ceremonial mania and a calculus of restraint.  Assassinations can take place at a moment’s notice.  Revenge killings follow with dashing speed.  Suicide bombings of immolating power are carried out.  Drone strikes of devastating, collective punishment are ordered, all padded by the retarded notion that such killings are morally justified and confined.

    In all this viciousness, the conventional armed forces have been held in check, the arsenals contained, the generals busied by plans of contingency rather than reality.  The rhetoric may be vengeful and spicily hysterical, but the states in the region keep their armies in reserve, and Armageddon at bay.  Till, naturally, they don’t.

    To date, Israel is doing much to test the threshold of what might be called the rule of tolerable violence.  With Iran, for instance, it has adopted a “campaign between the wars”, primarily in Syria.  For over a decade, the Israeli strategy was to prevent the flow of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah, intercepting weapons shipments and targeting storage facilities.  “Importantly,” writes Haid Haid, a consulting fellow for Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, “Israel appeared to avoid, whenever feasible, killing Hezbollah or Iranian operatives during these operations.”

    But the state of play has changed.  The Gaza War, which has become more the Gaza Massacre Project, has moved into its seventh month, packing morgues, destroying families and stimulating the terror of famine.  Despite calls from the Israeli military and various officials that Hamas’s capabilities have been irreparably weakened (this claim, like all those battling an idea rather than just a corporeal foe, remains refutable and redundant) the killings and policy of starvation continues against the general Palestinian populace.  The International Court of Justice interim orders continue to be ignored, even as the judges deliberate over the issue as to whether genocide is taking place in the Gaza Strip.  The restraints, in other words, have been taken off.

    The signs are ominous.  Spilt blood is becoming hard currency.  Daily skirmishes between the IDF and Hezbollah are taking place on the Israeli-Lebanon border.  The Houthis are feverishly engaged with blocking and attacking international shipping in the Red Sea, hooting solidarity for the Palestinian cause.

    On April 1, a blood crazed strike by Israel suggested that rules of tolerable violence had, if not been pushed, then altogether suspended.  The attack on Iran’s consular offices in Damascus by the Israeli Air Force was tantamount to striking Iranian soil.  In the process, it killed Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and other commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Zahedi’s deputy, General Haji Rahimi.  Retaliation was accordingly promised, with Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, vowing a response “at the same magnitude and harshness”.

    It came on April 13, involving 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles, all directed at Israel proper.  Superficially, this looks anarchically quixotic, streakily disproportionate.  But Tehran went for a spectacular theatrical show to terrify and magnify rather than opt for any broader infliction of damage.  Israel’s Iron Dome system, along with allied powers, could be counted upon to aid the shooting down of almost all the offensive devices.  A statement had been made and the Iranians have so far drawn a line under any further military action.  What was deemed by certain pundits a tactical failure can just as easily be read as a strategic if provocative success.  The question then is: what follows?

    The Israeli approach varies depending on who is being asked.  The IDF Chief of Staff, General Herzi Halevi, stated that “Israel is considering next steps” declaring that “the launch of so many missiles and drones to Israeli territory will be answered with retaliation.”

    National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir was taloned in his hawkishness, demanding that Israel launch a “crushing” counterattack, “go crazy” and abandon “restraint and proportionality”, “concepts that passed away on October 7.”  The “response must not be a scarecrow, in the style of the dune bombings we saw in previous years in Gaza.”

    Cabinet minister Benny Gantz, who is a voting member of the war cabinet alongside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, is tilting for a “regional coalition” to “exact the price from Iran, in the way and at the time that suits us.  And most importantly, in the face of the desire of our enemies to harm us, we will unite and become stronger.”  The immediate issues for resolution from Gantz’s perspective was the return of Israeli hostages “and the removal of the threat against the residents of the north and south.”

    Such thinking will also be prompted by the response from the Biden administration that Netanyahu “think very carefully and strategically” about the next measures.  “You got a win,” President Joe Biden is reported to have told Netanyahu.  “Take the win.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also expressed the view that, “Strength and wisdom must be the two sides of the same coin.”

    For decades, Israel has struck targets in sovereign countries with impunity, using expansive doctrines of pre-emption and self-defence. In doing so, the state always hoped that the understanding of tolerable violence would prevail.  Any retaliation, if any, would be modest, with “deterrence” assured. With the war in Gaza and the fanning out of conflict, the equation has changed.  To some degree, Ben Gvir is right that concepts of restraint and proportionality have been banished to the mortuary.  But such banishment, to a preponderant degree, was initiated by Israel.  The Israel-Gaza War is now, effectively, a global conflict, waged in regional miniature.

    The post Suspending the Rule of Tolerable Violence: Israel’s Attack and Iran’s Retaliation first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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    Is Regional War at Stake as Israel Weighs Response to Iran? Roundtable Discussion https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/15/is-regional-war-at-stake-as-israel-weighs-response-to-iran-roundtable-discussion/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/15/is-regional-war-at-stake-as-israel-weighs-response-to-iran-roundtable-discussion/#respond Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:26:12 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=78fd8d6bb02838f990972bc972f236d2
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Is Regional War at Stake as Israel Weighs Response to Iran? Roundtable from Tehran, Tel Aviv & D.C. https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/15/is-regional-war-at-stake-as-israel-weighs-response-to-iran-roundtable-from-tehran-tel-aviv-d-c/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/15/is-regional-war-at-stake-as-israel-weighs-response-to-iran-roundtable-from-tehran-tel-aviv-d-c/#respond Mon, 15 Apr 2024 12:11:24 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1127ba05a39f5e9b7f5c6074e2e9483e Seg1 reza gideon trita

    The Middle East is bracing for the possibility of regional war after Iran responded to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus with a major drone and missile attack Saturday. The attack caused little damage inside Israel, as it intercepted nearly all of the drones and missiles with help from the United States, Britain, France and Jordan. Iran’s government described the attack as a defensive maneuver after Israel’s unprovoked strike on its embassy killed some of Iran’s top military brass. This was “a performative operation to send a message,” says journalist Reza Sayah, who joins us from Tehran. But while Iran “does not want to escalate matters,” Israel may be preparing to do just that. Washington, D.C.-based analyst Trita Parsi says that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been trying to instigate conflict between the U.S. and Iran for “more than two decades,” and given that Biden has demonstrated an unwillingness to “draw any red lines for Israel publicly,” these latest provocations could become a prime “opportunity” for such a war. Crucially, Iranian restraint “cannot last forever,” warns our final roundtable guest, the Israeli journalist Gideon Levy, who touches on both Iran’s own sovereignty and increasing global pressure for Israel to end its war on Gaza. “Gaza is still starving and bleeding, and we shouldn’t forget it,” says Levy.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/15/is-regional-war-at-stake-as-israel-weighs-response-to-iran-roundtable-from-tehran-tel-aviv-d-c/feed/ 0 469949
    Iran Warns U.S. to “Stay away” from Conflict with Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/15/iran-warns-u-s-to-stay-away-from-conflict-with-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/15/iran-warns-u-s-to-stay-away-from-conflict-with-israel/#respond Mon, 15 Apr 2024 08:11:01 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149762 Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday warned the U.S. about “any support for Israel or involvement in harming Iran’s interests,” according to a statement. U.S. President Joe Biden said he met with his national security team for an update on Iran’s attacks on Israel and the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security against threats […]

    The post Iran Warns U.S. to “Stay away” from Conflict with Israel first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday warned the U.S. about “any support for Israel or involvement in harming Iran’s interests,” according to a statement. U.S. President Joe Biden said he met with his national security team for an update on Iran’s attacks on Israel and the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad.

    The post Iran Warns U.S. to “Stay away” from Conflict with Israel first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by CGTN.

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    "An Eerie Sense Of Overconfidence By Iran": Analysts React To Attack On Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/14/an-eerie-sense-of-overconfidence-by-iran-analysts-react-to-attack-on-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/14/an-eerie-sense-of-overconfidence-by-iran-analysts-react-to-attack-on-israel/#respond Sun, 14 Apr 2024 16:53:47 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=961bc84d2c1043f45c628b0124698562
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Footage Shows Iran Attacking Israel With Drones And Missiles, "Vast Majority" Intercepted https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/14/footage-shows-iran-attacking-israel-with-drones-and-missiles-vast-majority-intercepted/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/14/footage-shows-iran-attacking-israel-with-drones-and-missiles-vast-majority-intercepted/#respond Sun, 14 Apr 2024 09:08:05 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9b25a1b1e72fbc1f73b39955678acf84
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Iran Confirms Launching “Extensive” Strike against Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/13/iran-confirms-launching-extensive-strike-against-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/13/iran-confirms-launching-extensive-strike-against-israel/#respond Sat, 13 Apr 2024 22:06:03 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149743 FILE PHOTO. ©  Global Look Press / Iranian Army Office An operation has been carried out against Israeli targets in the Occupied Palestinian territories, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Monday night. The drone and missile strike was a response to “numerous crimes” supposedly committed by West Jerusalem, the statement said, […]

    The post Iran Confirms Launching “Extensive” Strike against Israel first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Iran confirms launching ‘extensive’ strike against IsraelFILE PHOTO. ©  Global Look Press / Iranian Army Office

    An operation has been carried out against Israeli targets in the Occupied Palestinian territories, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Monday night. The drone and missile strike was a response to “numerous crimes” supposedly committed by West Jerusalem, the statement said, among which was an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, it added.

    “In response to the Zionist regime’s numerous crimes … and the martyrdom of a number of our country’s commanders and military advisors in Syria, the IRGC’s Aerospace Division launched tens of missiles and drones against certain targets inside the occupied territories,” the statement said.

    The exact targets of the strike remain unknown. It is also unclear if the IRGC was referring to the Occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank or Israeli territory when announcing the strike. Several media outlets earlier reported that multiple drones were targeting Israeli territory. Tehran said it would provide further details about the operation “soon.”

    The development came two weeks after an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus. The attack, which took place on April 1, killed seven officers of the IRGC’s Quds Force, including two generals.

    READ MORE: Iran attacks Israel: Live updates

    Following the incident, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to deal Israel a “slap in the face.” US officials also warned West Jerusalem on Friday that Tehran could be preparing a massive strike against Israel over the weekend.

    The post Iran Confirms Launching “Extensive” Strike against Israel first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by RT.

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    How will Iran respond to Israel? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/13/how-will-iran-respond-to-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/13/how-will-iran-respond-to-israel/#respond Sat, 13 Apr 2024 20:36:42 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=cf55ed7be300ec1bd7a96de53f25fb2b
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran: How US empire creates its own enemies w/Eljiah Magnier & Matteo Capasso https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/07/hezbollah-hamas-iran-how-us-empire-creates-its-own-enemies-w-eljiah-magnier-matteo-capasso/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/07/hezbollah-hamas-iran-how-us-empire-creates-its-own-enemies-w-eljiah-magnier-matteo-capasso/#respond Sun, 07 Apr 2024 16:05:09 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=70b6fa6efc9fa094c333da7de140dd4f
    This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by The Real News Network.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/07/hezbollah-hamas-iran-how-us-empire-creates-its-own-enemies-w-eljiah-magnier-matteo-capasso/feed/ 0 468659
    China Blasts Israel at the UN https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/06/china-blasts-israel-at-the-un/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/06/china-blasts-israel-at-the-un/#respond Sat, 06 Apr 2024 23:26:05 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149469 ???? China blasts Israel at the UN: "This is a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law and a breach of the sovereignty of both Syria and Iran. This attack is of an extremely vicious nature… 25 years ago, China's embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed by a US-led… pic.twitter.com/ipZTgzfKOj — Megatron (@Megatron_ron) April […]

    The post China Blasts Israel at the UN first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    ???? China blasts Israel at the UN:

    "This is a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law and a breach of the sovereignty of both Syria and Iran. This attack is of an extremely vicious nature… 25 years ago, China's embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed by a US-led… pic.twitter.com/ipZTgzfKOj

    — Megatron (@Megatron_ron) April 2, 2024

    The post China Blasts Israel at the UN first appeared on Dissident Voice.


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    Israel attacks Iran, pushes escalation https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/04/israel-attacks-iran-pushes-escalation/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/04/israel-attacks-iran-pushes-escalation/#respond Thu, 04 Apr 2024 22:13:43 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=3f0a17de5c0c28f6b5ab59bcc5f516b0
    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    Ex-Israeli Negotiator Slams U.S. Arming of Israel Following Aid Convoy Attack & Iran Consulate Bombing https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/03/ex-israeli-negotiator-slams-u-s-arming-of-israel-following-aid-convoy-attack-iran-consulate-bombing/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/03/ex-israeli-negotiator-slams-u-s-arming-of-israel-following-aid-convoy-attack-iran-consulate-bombing/#respond Wed, 03 Apr 2024 12:55:05 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2c44abbb95ce134cf465b9172e7c7c10 Seg4 wck attack

    As Benjamin Netanyahu faces mass protests at home and increasing diplomatic pressure abroad, we speak with Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator and president of the U.S./Middle East Project. He says Netanyahu is desperate to save his political prospects, primarily by continuing the war on Gaza for as long as possible and undercutting ceasefire talks. “Prime Minister Netanyahu needs this war to continue and is willing and has already gone to extreme lengths to do so,” says Levy, who faults the Biden administration for not applying any real pressure on him. “Stop telling me that Netanyahu is a problem. You’re the problem, because you’re the enabler, you’re the facilitator.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Exiled Iranian journalist Pouria Zeraati stabbed in London https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/02/exiled-iranian-journalist-pouria-zeraati-stabbed-in-london/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/02/exiled-iranian-journalist-pouria-zeraati-stabbed-in-london/#respond Tue, 02 Apr 2024 20:54:07 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=374148 Washington, D.C., April 2, 2024— The Committee to Protect Journalists on Tuesday called for UK authorities to investigate the stabbing of an exiled Iranian television journalist in London and whether it could signal a new wave of cross-border repression by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

    Pouria Zeraati, 36, a presenter for Iran International, was outside of his home in Wimbledon, south London on March 29 when a group of men attacked him. The assailants fled the scene by car, and Zeraati was hospitalized for treatment.

    Although no motive has been identified in the case, nor any suspects apprehended, the incident led authorities to launch a counterterrorism investigation, since there has been an alarming increase in instances of critics abroad being targeted by the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

    Since its founding in 1979, the Islamic government in Iran has regularly used tactics of extraterritorial repression, including multiple assassinations in Western nations, that have gone unprosecuted.

    “UK authorities must thoroughly investigate the attack on Pouria Zeraati and all threats to Iranian journalists and news organizations,” said Carlos Martinez de la Serna, CPJ program director in New York, on Tuesday. “Iranian journalists in exile remain highly vulnerable to extraterritorial repression. It is crucial that they have the protections they need and those responsible for these attacks are held accountable.”

    Adam Ballie, a spokesperson for Iran International told CPJ on Tuesday that “along with our colleagues at BBC Persian, Iran International has been under threat, very heavy threats, for the last 18 months since the IRGC Commander Hossien Salami said in October 2022 on live TV ‘we’re coming for you,’ which they have consistently repeated.” 

    “Our live coverage of Iran matters such as UN human rights, protests, Evin prison fire, economic and social welfare, all of which are not welcomed by the Iranian government and made us a target,” Ballie said.

    The stabbing of Zeraati comes after a plot to assassinate two other Iran International news anchors – Sima Sabet and Fardad Farahzad – was uncovered late last year.

    Sima Sabet, a former TV presenter with Iran International, told CPJ on Monday that the Metropolitan Police asked her to leave her home safety, after Zeraati’s attack, for her safety. In August 2023, Sabet resigned from her job despite her prime time show having the highest rating of any Farsi-language TV program due to heavy online attacks. Sabet shared that the attacks ramped up after her coverage of nationwide protests in Iran, following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Jina Amini in custody, and the revelation terror plot against Sabet. But Sabet said the threats have not stopped. 

    On Monday, Zeraati, in a post on his personal X account, said that he had been released from the hospital, and he and his wife have been moved to a safe house under the supervision of London’s Metropolitan Police. He also noted that counterterrorism police were making “good progress” and that “the suspects had purposefully planned this attack” and posed no threat to the general public in London or the rest of the UK.

    The Islamic Republic claims it was not behind the attack.  

    “We deny any link to this story of this so-called journalist,” Mehdi Hosseini Matin, Chargé d’affaires at Iran’s embassy in London, wrote on his X account.

    CPJ emailed the Iranian Foreign Ministry for comment on Iran International’s case of Pouria Ziaratti’ stabbing but did not receive a response.

    According to CPJ research, Iran is among the world’s leading jailers of journalists.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Committee to Protect Journalists.

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    Israel "Risking a Two-Front War, Maybe a Three-Front War," After Latest Strike Against Iran in Syria https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/02/israel-risking-a-two-front-war-maybe-a-three-front-war-after-latest-strike-against-iran-in-syria-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/02/israel-risking-a-two-front-war-maybe-a-three-front-war-after-latest-strike-against-iran-in-syria-2/#respond Tue, 02 Apr 2024 14:36:34 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=fecef8b2bbd4e4c4cd51368cf27d95d7
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Israel “Risking a Two-Front War, Maybe a Three-Front War,” After Latest Strike Against Iran in Syria https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/02/israel-risking-a-two-front-war-maybe-a-three-front-war-after-latest-strike-against-iran-in-syria/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/04/02/israel-risking-a-two-front-war-maybe-a-three-front-war-after-latest-strike-against-iran-in-syria/#respond Tue, 02 Apr 2024 12:50:52 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=cd51e79413b9e4e6472ea3d4c8142e9b Seg4 syria

    Iran has vowed to retaliate after Israel bombed the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing at least seven people, including three senior Iranian commanders and at least four other Iranian officers. Among the dead is senior commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking Iranian military officer to be killed since the U.S. assassinated General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020. While Israel sees strikes on foreign soil as “part of their self-defense strategy,” Iran feels it must respond to this “breaching serious diplomatic norms,” says Akbar Shahid Ahmed, senior diplomatic correspondent for HuffPost, who reports the pace and audacity of Israel’s international attacks have escalated since October. “While Israel is receiving huge amounts of American support, while Gaza is suffering and Israel is pummeling that Strip, we now see them risking a two-front war, maybe a three-front war.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Haroon Siddiqui’s My Name is NOT Harry https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/29/haroon-siddiquis-my-name-is-not-harry/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/29/haroon-siddiquis-my-name-is-not-harry/#respond Fri, 29 Mar 2024 18:27:38 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149329 Haroon Siddiqui’s 2023 memoir, My Name is Not Harry, is a dazzling journey through Indian Sufism, pre-partition Muslim-Hindu harmony, the horrors of partition, a leap across the ocean to the middle of nowhere (sorry, Brandon Manitoba), finally finding his home at the Toronto Star, from whence, back to central Asia (Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India during […]

    The post Haroon Siddiqui’s My Name is NOT Harry first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Haroon Siddiqui’s 2023 memoir, My Name is Not Harry, is a dazzling journey through Indian Sufism, pre-partition Muslim-Hindu harmony, the horrors of partition, a leap across the ocean to the middle of nowhere (sorry, Brandon Manitoba), finally finding his home at the Toronto Star, from whence, back to central Asia (Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India during the tumultuous 1979+), hobnobbing with media and political stars, stopping for heart surgery, all the time building and defending his new multicultural faith, adding his own distinct, Muslim flavour to what it means to be a Canadian. A whirlwind tour of the 20th-21st centuries, as if by a latter day Muslim Christopher Columbus, one meant to try to undo the five centuries of imperialist horror that Columbus unleashed.

    He relishes slaying the dragons of bigotry he encounters, starting with

    *Winston Churchill, the racist. He who had labelled Indians ‘a barbarous people’, ‘a beastly people with a beastly religion’, ‘the beastliest people in the world next to Germans’. Who exacerbated the 1943 Bengal famine that had killed millions by insisting that Indian rice exports for the allied war effort not be interrupted. He who had called Gandhi ‘a naked fakir’ whom he wanted ‘bound hand and foot at the gates of Delhi and then trampled by an enormous elephant with a new viceroy seated on its back.’

    *Even the Toronto Star‘s iconic Gordon Sinclair, who won fame in the 1930s with his dispatches form India – ‘the pagan peninsula’ with its ‘wild and woolly Hindus’, Brahmins, the supreme high hooper-doopers of this impossible land’, ‘scrawny, underfed untouchables’, impossible-looking beggars’ and ‘yowling idiots’. In tune with those times, [the Star] still going ga-ga over Sinclair well into my own time.

    *On Iran, the only Muslim ‘experts’ and commentators on TV and in print were anti-revolution or anti-Khomeini, authenticating the worst of western prejudices. Anything different, such as mine, must have been a welcome novelty, brought to them by Canada’s largest newspaper.

    *On 9//11, Rushdie see below.

    One of those should-haves of his life as dragonslayer was at the annual press gallery dinner in Ottawa, where he hosted Solicitor General Robert Kaplan. When they were walking to dinner, Kaplan started waxing eloquently about his love for India and yoga but his dislike of Muslims! He assumed that being from India I could only be a Hindu. What a testament to power the Zionist Jewish mindset had/has over even a proud Muslim like Siddiqui. But bravo, Harry (sorry, Haroon) for owning up. That’s the great thing about him. He lives his multiculturalism, which means meeting the other on his/her grounds, looking for the middle ground, not stoking enmity.

    Iranian Ayatollahs, Afghan communists

    He shines on the thorniest issue, one of which confronted him soon after arriving at the Star, when he was sent off to Iran in 1979. Speaking Urdu (close to Persian) and fully versed in Sunni and Shia Islam, he was able to make sense of the chaos, making his way to Qom to visit Ayatollah Madari, Khomeini’s rival, who lived just down the maze of alleys from Khomeini, who was already commanding the revolution from his modest home there, rather than Tehran.

    He was told it was impossible to meet with Madari, even for a Canadian Muslim, but when he revealed that he’d just come from Tabriz, where Madari’s People’s Republican Party followers had risen up against Khomeini, rejecting the Islamic state constitution, Madari relented. Madari wanted a secular state and ‘the sovereignty of the people’ not a person. He answered every question patiently for nearly two hours. That was his only interview in the wake of the revolt. It would be his last. He was placed under house arrest until his death six years later.

    He also met with Morteza Pasandideh, 82, Khomeini’s older brother, who was quite jovial. Siddiqui admired them all for their stress-free lives, their inner peace all, living productive lives into their 80s or 90s. Qom is famous for sohan halwa (sweet sweet) made with pistachios, almonds and butter. Back in Toronto, he asked John Ralston Saul to taste and guess which enemy country it was from. Whatever it is, it could only have been made by a great civilization.

    He toured the now-occupied US embassy and chatted amiably (sympathetically?) with the students about how they had pulled off the siege, overpowering the bulky Marines. They said their resolve got strengthened after seeing a large-size picture of Khomeini on a dartboard and several crude cartoons of Khomeini from American and British newspapers in the embassy. At Christmas they made cookies for their captives. An American priest who had come to perform the Christmas Mass said: We should be grateful that we are in a Muslim country and there are not drunk guards. Canadian Ambassador Ken Taylor told him: There are no anti-Canadian feelings here. No one has indicated any inclination to leave Tehran. There’s no panic. When he met Taylor later, he said: Mr Taylor, you’re a great liar. Taylor: That’s what I got paid for.

    After an exhausting year in Tehran, the Soviets invaded (came to the assistance of) secular revolutionary Kabul and he was ordered to get there asap. But first he flew to the Iranian border and crossed into Afghanistan to meet a local tribal chieftain, who told him, ‘We’ll kick the bastards out.’ How to get there legitimately? Pakistan? Better India, which had good relations with the communists in Moscow and Kabul, so off to New Delhi and the Afghan embassy. Indira Gandhi never condemned the Soviet invasion. (How wise in retrospect.) In Kabul he was told not to go anywhere and only communicate through an official guide. Ha, ha! He snuck out the back door of his hotel, spoke to a soldier in Urdu, said ‘Canada’ and quickly found a local driver.

    He credits Canada’s reputation for peaceful relations, a well-known eye clinic in Kabul. Off to (Shia) Herat where he heard Long live Islam, Long live Iran! He bought a Russian fur cap but was told never to wear it in public or he might be shot. He left via Pushtunistan to Jalalabad, Pakistan, where he met the legendary 91-year-old frontier Gandhi Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, who like the Siddiquis had protested the division of India. He was ailing but contemptuous of Soviet attempts to appease religious Afghans. Everything in Afghanistan is done in the name of religion. But this is a political religion, not the religion of Islam and Allah and Muhammad. Communism has nothing to do with religion. It has to do with the stomach. The Russians knew this and tried to convince the Afghans that they could keep their religion, but it was too little, too late. The Russians refused to try to treat their Gandhi, fearing if he died, they would be accused of killing him.

    He pressed on to the Khyber Pass, the route for a stream of invaders – Cyrus, Darius, Genghis Khan, Alexander, the Mughals. Tribal chief Mohammed Gul told him: if the Iranians can knock off the Shah and the Americans, we certainly can kick out the Russians. He saw that resistance was beginning to jell within weeks of the Soviet occupation. It took a decade for the Soviets to depart, the US and allies, including Canada, taking double the time to conclude that Afghans have both the courage and patience to bleed any occupier dry.

    This being the days before internet, getting copy out required ingenuity. Siddiqui would go to the airport on the days Indian Airlines came to Kabul, meet the crew and cajole/tip them into taking copy and dropping it off at the Reuters news agency in Delhi for forwarding to Toronto. He also went on the day Pakistan International Airlines came just in case. Later he was told everything came, sometimes twice. He met Brzezinski in Peshawar (!) but he wouldn’t give Siddiqui the time of day.

    Following the Iraq-Iran war, he was disgusted that western media ignored the poison gas supplied to Iraq by American, German, French, Dutch, Swiss and Belgian companies. On the Iranian front line he hid from Iraqi snipers and marveled at how soldiers dying from gassing were rushed from the front to Tehran hospitals. He was appalled by Khomeini’s hitman, a sadistic prosecutor Ayatollah Sadegh Khalkhali, the hanging judge. Later in Paris, he met Bani Sadr, the first president, who had been impeached and fled the country disguised as a woman in a chador, in an Iran Air Force jet piloted by a sympathizer. He laments that US hostility prompted Khomeini to restart the nuclear program begun under the Shah, after ending it as unIslamic.

    Siddiqui’s credo

    I must admit, I’ve become jaded about multiculturalism. Toronto is now mostly first or second generation immigrants. Our culture feels shallow and American now. I find the turban-wearing Uber electric scooters grazing me unawares on bike paths frightening, and pointless, as they ferry onion rings to lazy people with too much money. I bemoan the lack of interest in Canadian history, our struggle to define an identity that’s not American. Most immigrants really would prefer big, rich, warm America to Canada and would have no problem if the US decided to invade. What has happened to Canadian culture?

    But then I’ve become equally jaded about our heroic history. We are all immigrants, in the case of the paleface, mostly riff-raff, having decimated our poor brown natives. The post-WWII immigrants from brown countries like Siddiqui’s India/ Pakistan are mostly university-educated, the elites of their countries, so they really are a step up from my Irish-English-Swedish peasant ancestors.

    But then, I find that equally disturbing. We stole the land from the real Canadians. Now we steal the intellectual wealth from poor countries. Sure we’re richer; the imperialist ‘centre’ is always richer. Our Canadianism was and is still a fraud. So, white flag, hello multiculturalism, for better or worse. But one that should give first place to our natives as the real owners, spiritually, of the land. And no more stealing, whether it be minds from ‘over there’, or land here or ‘over there’. That means Israel, our ‘best friend’, according to PM Harper in 2013 and PM Trudeau in 2015.

    Siddiqui is unapologetically for mass immigration and has no time for the ecological problems that mass migration entails. He boasts having visited India 50 times in 40 years, not to mention his other peregrinations. That grates. Yes, brown/black is just as good as white, but what’s holding us together anymore? I don’t know, but I’m happy for Siddiqui, who at least has helped Canada transform from a country of bigotry and chauvinism to … a nice, tame, bland cosmopolis.

    His journey through the swinging ’60s into the terrible ’20s is an upbeat panorama of not only Canada at its peak of popularity and feel-goodness, but, reading between the lines, also the decline of Canada, its loss of feel-good innocence transformation into an unapologetic toady of US empire. He took pride in being Canadian when Ambassador Taylor helped US hostages escape Tehran in 1980, when Chretien refused to go along with the invasion of Iraq in 2003, but it’s been downhill since then, with Harper’s disastrous commitment of Canadian troops to Afghanistan, his open Islamo- and Russophobia, his worship of Israel. While Trudeau has welcomed Syrian refugees (and now Afghans, fall out from Harper’s war), he did not fulfill his pledge to renew relations with Iran, despite the Iranian exile community’s pleas. His Russophobia is pathetic. Multiculturalism is looking mighty threadbare.

    Yes, following Trudeau senior, Siddiqui’s credo is that all cultural communities have ‘the right to preserve and develop their own cultures within Canadian society’, which he notes is the ethos of India, best articulated by Indian novelist Shivaram Karanth: There’s no such thing as Indian culture. Indian culture is so varied as to be called cultures. But what has happened to India’s multiculturalism under arch-Hindu nationalist Modi?


    Star Foreign Editor Jimmy Atkins (R) with Star chair John Honderich, South African President Nelson Mandela & first lady Graca Machel, Star editorial board editor Haroon Siddiqui.

    Free trade, Sikhs, Laïcité

    Siddiqui gets along with everyone, doesn’t drink or smoke (anymore), a model Muslim in the House of War.1 He traces his ancestors to the first caliph Abu-bakr Siddiq, and second caliph Umar al-Khattab al-Faruq. A worthy disciple of the Prophet Muhammad, the multiculturalist par excellence.2 The fearsome Bee (Star editor-in-chief Beland Honderich) famously got along with Haroon. Siddiqui started from scratch in Brandon (no halal, no yogurt in 1968), then the Star, rising quickly through the ranks to foreign correspondent, front page editor, editorial page editor, and finally columnist, all the time the only Muslim in mainstream Canadian media.

    He and the Star were against Mulroney’s ‘free’ trade pact with the yankee devil, realizing it was only good for fat cats. He has acted as a public spokesman explaining the problems of all immigrants and BIPOC,3 an acronym he promotes. He highlights the racism which feeds on the changing demographics from white to nonwhite, recountiing a Tanzanian immigrant pushed onto Toronto’s subway tracks, crippling him, and the existence of a KKK chapter operating openly in Toronto.

    The case of Sikhs is thorny. Sikh Canadians were mostly quietist, but when Sikh separatists were ejected from the Golden Temple by Indira Gandhi in 1984, she was assassinated, and Sikh separatists blew up an Indian Airlines plane full of Hindu Canadians in 1985. This still ranks as Canada’s worst such tragedy, but was downplayed by the Canadian government with the investigation bungled by the RCMP, as anti-Sikh/ Hindu racism grew. And it continues, the latest being a hit job on a (Sikh separatist) Canadian, openly, by India’s militant Hindu nationalist government. Multiculturalism is easily abused and hard to defend.

    To their credit, the Sikhs in Canada have bounced back, entering politics (Justin Trudeau boasted more Sikhs in his cabinet than Modi), joining the RCMP, police, army, working hard, being good citizens. The bad apples didn’t spoil the whole barrel, though Sikhs have no use for India, and they really did capture the lackluster leadership convention of the NDP out of nowhere in 2017. The unlikely NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been earnest, if not inspiring.

    How does this multiculturalism pan out? Quebec separatists don’t like immigrants much, as they are not interested in living in a parochial, xenophobic province, and have enough trouble learning passable English, let alone Quebecois. They voted en masse against independence, and the pesky Muslim women want to wear hijab or worse, niqab. Vive la laïcité. Quebec has chosen to copy France’s punitive banning hijab and other restrictions. Still, English and French get along.

    Tribalism, French vs English, Sikhs vs Hindus, Buddhists remains strong. That contrasts with Muslims, who quickly drop their ethnic identity for universal Islam and Canadianism (84% cite being Muslim and 81% cite being Canadian as their primary identity),4 as I’ve noticed at Muslim conferences, where a truly united nations reigns. That brings us to Jewish Canadians vs Muslim Canadians, the most tragic stand-off of the past century. Siddiqui doesn’t go to this forbidding territory. On the contrary, (wisely) he has spoken to Bnai Brith and Canadian Jewish Congress gatherings and kept a low profile as a Muslim Canadian. As the sole prominent Muslim journalist here, he was operating in enemy territory, as his encounter with Kaplan confirmed.

    Enlightening Canadians on things Islamic

    More important, he wrote engagingly about Muslims in Toronto, which hosts the largest Iranian emigre community after the US, mostly in ‘Tehronto’, a mix of pro- and anti-Khomeini, but able to live peacefully, all agreeing that the Canadian government nonrecognition of Iran and boycott is bad politics for everyone. His appreciation for this ‘great civilization’ contrasts with the negative press that Iran uniformly gets here.

    Siddiqui realized quickly that Canadian media coverage and commentary ‘smelled of American propaganda’ and the US and allies were inflicting too many horrors on Muslims and Muslims lands. In 1988, the US warship Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner killing 290, prompting Bush I to boast: I will never apologize for the US. I don’t care what the facts are. Instead, Washington awarded medals to the captain and crew of the Vincennes. Did any other mainstream journalist note this then or now? He refused to blacken Islam after 9/11. Now a columnist he wrote his third post-9/11 column ‘It’s the US foreign policy, stupid,’ causing a storm of letters to the editor, a majority ‘thank you for saying it’.

    Ismailis came in 1972, expelled by Idi Amin of Uganda, joined later by Ismailis from Kenya and Tanzania. Self-reliant, educated, entrepreneurial, they inspired the Aga Khan to build a museum of Islamic culture in Toronto in 2014, the only such museum in the West. Ironically it was officially opened by arch-Islamophobe PM Harper. We celebrate today not only the harmonious meeting of green gardens and glass galleries. We rejoice above all in the special spirit which fills this place and gives it its soul. But then, to Islamophobe Harper, Ismailis are Islam-lite, not considered real Muslims by most.

    There are two chapters dealing with the ummah: Cultural Warfare on Muslims, and Harper and Muslims (In his ugliness, he was well ahead of Trump – and more effective). Some particularly painful episodes he covered:

    *Harper invited (till then terrorist) Modi to Canada in 2014 when first elected, accompanying him to Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver,

    *He established an office of religious freedom, which he unveiled at a Mississauga Coptic church. He announced the position of a new ambassador of religious freedom at the Ahmadiyya mosque in Vaughan, defending Christian and other minorities in Muslim nations, doing nothing for Uighurs, Rohingyas, Shia in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

    I could go on – I haven’t even got to the Rushdie circus – but I urge all Muslim Canadians, no, all Canadians, to read for yourselves. Siddiqui provides an excellent survey of all the post-9/11 Islamophobic nonsense, especially in Euroland.

    The West has discredited democracy by allowing anti-Islam and anti-Muslim discourse to be one of our last acceptable forms of racism and bigotry. It’s in this milieu that Rushdie and the Rushdie affair have thrived. Has Rushdie been exploiting western prejudices or has the West been using him as a shield for its own prejudices? Or is this a case of mutual convenience?

    Having rid ourselves of Harper, how quickly we forget the pain when it stops. As it has under Trudeau Jr. For all his silliness and US-Israel fawning, Justin Trudeau is true to his father’s legacy, and undid much of Harper’s bigotry, especially relating to Muslims.

    We should be wary of letting the unrepentant Conservatives take back Parliament Hill. However, I don’t think it’s possible to relaunch the Harper take-no-hostages Crusade. 9/11 (whoever did it) is what motivated me and many more to become a Muslim, and October 7 is now rapidly expanding the Muslim ummah, especially in the West, the heart of the beast. The trouble for the Harpers is that the more Islam and Muslims are reviled, the more Muslims (re)turn to their religion. But then that’s the way of imperialism, creating its enemies, stoking them, as Israel did with Hamas, thinking they can then pick off the ‘terrorists’, ‘mow the grass’.

    Siddiqui draws from his experience surviving partition in India, adhering to Shaykh Madani’s view that ‘there is too much diversity within Islam for democracy to work, that an Islamic state would inevitably be authoritarian.’ Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran are the leading examples. The best protection for peoples of faith was a democratic state that stayed neutral between faiths and advanced mutual respect.5

    The Harpers accuse Muslims of being unwilling to integrate. Canada, Britain and the US are shining examples of the opposite.

    *In the 2021 federal election 12 Muslims won seats. Two hold senior Cabinet portfolios: Omar Alghabra and Ahmed Hussen.

    *In Britain, in 2019, 19 were elected. Sadiq Khan has been mayor of London since 2016.

    *Humza Yousaf became first minister in Scotland in 2023, the first Muslim to lead a western nation. When Khan was sworn in as a member of the Privy Council at Bukhingham Palace in 2009, it was discovered there was no Quran in the palace, so he brought his own and left it as a present to the Queen.

    *In the US 57 Muslims were elected in 2020. Keith Ellison, the first member of the House was sworn in on a copy of the Quran owned by President Jefferson, who had bought an English translation out of the ‘desire to understand Islam on its own terms.’

    *Arab and Muslim entertainers, stand-up comedians, writers, actors, Little Mosque on the Prairie …

    *To welcome Syrian refugees arriving in Canada, Ottawa French public schools joined to sing Talaʽ al-Badru ʽAlaynā,6 which went viral on YouTube.

    Siddiqui’s openmindedness and lack of prejudice are his not-so-secret weapon, able to find common humanity where western propaganda serves up bile. To no small degree, thanks to Haroon and other new (brown) Canadians, Marshall McLuhan’s global village is a reality at home, the most successful heterogeneous experiment in human history.

    ENDNOTES

    The post Haroon Siddiqui’s My Name is NOT Harry first appeared on Dissident Voice.
    1    Dar al-harb vs Dar al-Salam, House of Peace, referring to the Muslim world.
    2    Quran16:13 And all the [beauty of] many hues-which He has created for you on earth: in this, behold, there is a message for people who [are willing to] take it to heart.
    3    Black, indigenous, people of colour.
    4    Half of Muslim Canadians consider their ethnic identity as very important. Statistics Canada, ‘The Canadian Census: A rich portrait of the country’s religious and ethnocultural diversity,’ 2022.
    5    Siddiqui, My name is not Harry: A memoir, 392.
    6    (طلع البدر) nasheed that the Ansar sang for the Islamic prophet Muhammad upon his arrival at Medina from the (non)battle of Tabuk.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Eric Walberg.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/29/haroon-siddiquis-my-name-is-not-harry/feed/ 0 467040
    Acclaimed Iranian Singer Faramarz Aslani Dies After Cancer Diagnosis https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/22/acclaimed-iranian-singer-faramarz-aslani-dies-after-cancer-diagnosis/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/22/acclaimed-iranian-singer-faramarz-aslani-dies-after-cancer-diagnosis/#respond Fri, 22 Mar 2024 15:34:52 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-singer-faramarz-aslani-dies/32873333.html An emboldened Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, has changed the balance of power in the South Caucasus in recent years.

    Baku reclaimed full control over Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that for three decades had been under ethnic-Armenian control, last year.

    A weakened Armenia, meanwhile, has distanced itself from its traditional ally, Russia, and looked to move closer to the West.

    The geopolitical changes in the region have raised concerns in Iran, which neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tehran fears it could lose its clout in a region that has long been dominated by Moscow, an ally.

    The Islamic republic strongly opposes the proposed east-west Zangezur Corridor that would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Naxcivan exclave through Armenian territory and open a long-sought trade route to Tehran's rival, Turkey, and beyond.

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) listens to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a joint news conference following their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, on January 24.
    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) listens to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a joint news conference following their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, on January 24.

    Iran is also concerned Baku could forcibly seize territory in southern Armenia to create territorial continuity with Naxcivan, which would cut off Tehran from Yerevan, an ally.

    Iran also opposes normalization between Armenia and Turkey, a scenario that could reduce Yerevan's dependence on Tehran and pave the way for greater Western influence in the volatile region.

    "The changing dynamics in the region and the decline of Russia's relative influence pose potential challenges to Iran's long-term geopolitical and security goals in the region," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    Cutting Iran Out

    The top diplomats of Armenia and Turkey met on March 1 in the Turkish coastal city of Antalya and reiterated their nations' intention to fully normalize relations.

    That meeting was viewed with apprehension by some pundits inside Iran who suggested such a move would cut Tehran out of the region.

    "If Ankara's efforts to normalize relations with Yerevan are successful, leading to the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor, it could indeed marginalize Iran geopolitically," Azizi said.

    The 45-kilometer-long proposed corridor, Azizi said, would "not only enhance Turkish and Azerbaijani influence by providing a direct link between the two but also bypass Iran, diminishing its role as a potential regional transit hub."

    Eldar Mamedov, a Brussels-based expert on the South Caucasus, said the corridor would effectively leave Iran "excessively dependent on the goodwill of Ankara and Baku for the security of its northern borders and also for accessing transit routes [to Russia]."

    Azerbaijan's increasingly cozy relations with Iran's archfoe, Israel, have fueled tensions with Tehran.

    Iran is also wary that Baku's growing influence in the region could fuel "irredentist tendencies" among Iran's large ethnic Azeri population, separated from Azerbaijan by the Aras River and located primarily in Iran's East and West Azerbaijan provinces, Mamedov said.

    For Armenia and Turkey to normalize relations, Yerevan and Baku first need to sign a peace agreement, according to Benyamin Poghosyan, a senior research fellow at the Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia.

    Poghosyan said Azerbaijan would only sign the deal if Armenia conceded to all of Baku's demands, including the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor.

    "But I don't believe Armenia will agree to provide Azerbaijan [with an] extraterritorial corridor," he said.

    Poghosyan added that Azerbaijan is unlikely to forcibly seize Armenian territory to establish the corridor given the presence of a "hard-power deterrent" like Iran.

    Wary of The West?

    In February, Armenia suspended its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

    The government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has long criticized the CSTO for its "failure to respond to the security challenges" facing Armenia.

    In 2020, Baku recaptured parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly ethnic-Armenian-populated region inside Azerbaijan, following a six-week war that ended with a Russian-brokered cease-fire.

    Armenian defense officials met with their Iranian counterparts in Tehran on March 6.
    Armenian defense officials met with their Iranian counterparts in Tehran on March 6.

    In September 2023, Azerbaijan retook the rest of the territory after a lightning offensive that resulted in the full capitulation of the de facto Karabakh government.

    Armenian authorities have accused Russian peacekeepers deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2020 war of failing to stop Azerbaijan's offensive last year, a claim rejected by Moscow.

    Armenia on March 6 said it had requested Moscow to remove Russian border troops from the international airport in Yerevan, the latest sign of souring relations.

    The moves have fueled concerns in Iran that Armenia could turn to the West to guarantee its security.

    In an apparent warning, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Ashtiani on March 6 told his Armenian counterpart in Tehran that "looking for security outside the region will have the opposite effect."

    "We believe that the security architecture of the region should be designed in the region; therefore, any approach by countries in the region against this policy would be in no way acceptable," Ashtiani warned Suren Papikyan.

    Poghosyan said Armenia seeks to "diversify its foreign and security policy" but that it was too soon to tell whether it wants to completely pivot to the West or just strengthen relations with Western powers without abandoning Russia.

    He added that Iran has made it clear to Armenia that it "would not tolerate geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus, which means not only changes [to] borders, but also changes [to the] balance of power in the region."

    For all their differences, Iranian and Western interests converge on their support for Armenian sovereignty.

    As such, Mamedov argued, Iran's opposition to a Western presence "may not be as rigid as it appears to be in the official rhetoric."

    But it is unclear if that will lead to any collaboration.

    "The overarching anti-Western stance in Iranian foreign policy and Tehran's presumed desire not to upset Moscow in the South Caucasus make such cooperation very unlikely," Azizi said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/22/acclaimed-iranian-singer-faramarz-aslani-dies-after-cancer-diagnosis/feed/ 0 465837
    In Face Of Record-Low Election Turnout, Iranian Cleric Says Believers Matter, Not Majority https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/20/in-face-of-record-low-election-turnout-iranian-cleric-says-believers-matter-not-majority/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/20/in-face-of-record-low-election-turnout-iranian-cleric-says-believers-matter-not-majority/#respond Wed, 20 Mar 2024 17:28:23 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-election-turnout-cleric-alamolhoda-believers-majority/32870530.html An emboldened Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, has changed the balance of power in the South Caucasus in recent years.

    Baku reclaimed full control over Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that for three decades had been under ethnic-Armenian control, last year.

    A weakened Armenia, meanwhile, has distanced itself from its traditional ally, Russia, and looked to move closer to the West.

    The geopolitical changes in the region have raised concerns in Iran, which neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tehran fears it could lose its clout in a region that has long been dominated by Moscow, an ally.

    The Islamic republic strongly opposes the proposed east-west Zangezur Corridor that would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Naxcivan exclave through Armenian territory and open a long-sought trade route to Tehran's rival, Turkey, and beyond.

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) listens to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a joint news conference following their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, on January 24.
    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) listens to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a joint news conference following their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, on January 24.

    Iran is also concerned Baku could forcibly seize territory in southern Armenia to create territorial continuity with Naxcivan, which would cut off Tehran from Yerevan, an ally.

    Iran also opposes normalization between Armenia and Turkey, a scenario that could reduce Yerevan's dependence on Tehran and pave the way for greater Western influence in the volatile region.

    "The changing dynamics in the region and the decline of Russia's relative influence pose potential challenges to Iran's long-term geopolitical and security goals in the region," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    Cutting Iran Out

    The top diplomats of Armenia and Turkey met on March 1 in the Turkish coastal city of Antalya and reiterated their nations' intention to fully normalize relations.

    That meeting was viewed with apprehension by some pundits inside Iran who suggested such a move would cut Tehran out of the region.

    "If Ankara's efforts to normalize relations with Yerevan are successful, leading to the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor, it could indeed marginalize Iran geopolitically," Azizi said.

    The 45-kilometer-long proposed corridor, Azizi said, would "not only enhance Turkish and Azerbaijani influence by providing a direct link between the two but also bypass Iran, diminishing its role as a potential regional transit hub."

    Eldar Mamedov, a Brussels-based expert on the South Caucasus, said the corridor would effectively leave Iran "excessively dependent on the goodwill of Ankara and Baku for the security of its northern borders and also for accessing transit routes [to Russia]."

    Azerbaijan's increasingly cozy relations with Iran's archfoe, Israel, have fueled tensions with Tehran.

    Iran is also wary that Baku's growing influence in the region could fuel "irredentist tendencies" among Iran's large ethnic Azeri population, separated from Azerbaijan by the Aras River and located primarily in Iran's East and West Azerbaijan provinces, Mamedov said.

    For Armenia and Turkey to normalize relations, Yerevan and Baku first need to sign a peace agreement, according to Benyamin Poghosyan, a senior research fellow at the Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia.

    Poghosyan said Azerbaijan would only sign the deal if Armenia conceded to all of Baku's demands, including the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor.

    "But I don't believe Armenia will agree to provide Azerbaijan [with an] extraterritorial corridor," he said.

    Poghosyan added that Azerbaijan is unlikely to forcibly seize Armenian territory to establish the corridor given the presence of a "hard-power deterrent" like Iran.

    Wary of The West?

    In February, Armenia suspended its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

    The government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has long criticized the CSTO for its "failure to respond to the security challenges" facing Armenia.

    In 2020, Baku recaptured parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly ethnic-Armenian-populated region inside Azerbaijan, following a six-week war that ended with a Russian-brokered cease-fire.

    Armenian defense officials met with their Iranian counterparts in Tehran on March 6.
    Armenian defense officials met with their Iranian counterparts in Tehran on March 6.

    In September 2023, Azerbaijan retook the rest of the territory after a lightning offensive that resulted in the full capitulation of the de facto Karabakh government.

    Armenian authorities have accused Russian peacekeepers deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2020 war of failing to stop Azerbaijan's offensive last year, a claim rejected by Moscow.

    Armenia on March 6 said it had requested Moscow to remove Russian border troops from the international airport in Yerevan, the latest sign of souring relations.

    The moves have fueled concerns in Iran that Armenia could turn to the West to guarantee its security.

    In an apparent warning, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Ashtiani on March 6 told his Armenian counterpart in Tehran that "looking for security outside the region will have the opposite effect."

    "We believe that the security architecture of the region should be designed in the region; therefore, any approach by countries in the region against this policy would be in no way acceptable," Ashtiani warned Suren Papikyan.

    Poghosyan said Armenia seeks to "diversify its foreign and security policy" but that it was too soon to tell whether it wants to completely pivot to the West or just strengthen relations with Western powers without abandoning Russia.

    He added that Iran has made it clear to Armenia that it "would not tolerate geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus, which means not only changes [to] borders, but also changes [to the] balance of power in the region."

    For all their differences, Iranian and Western interests converge on their support for Armenian sovereignty.

    As such, Mamedov argued, Iran's opposition to a Western presence "may not be as rigid as it appears to be in the official rhetoric."

    But it is unclear if that will lead to any collaboration.

    "The overarching anti-Western stance in Iranian foreign policy and Tehran's presumed desire not to upset Moscow in the South Caucasus make such cooperation very unlikely," Azizi said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/20/in-face-of-record-low-election-turnout-iranian-cleric-says-believers-matter-not-majority/feed/ 0 465368
    Biden’s State of the Union Address Exposed by US Intelligence Threat Assessment https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/19/bidens-state-of-the-union-address-exposed-by-us-intelligence-threat-assessment/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/19/bidens-state-of-the-union-address-exposed-by-us-intelligence-threat-assessment/#respond Tue, 19 Mar 2024 02:26:27 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=149014 President Biden used the bully pulpit of the annual State of the Union Address to describe a world that significantly differed from the picture presented just a month earlier in the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. Information fed to the general public is deliberately spun to sell the imperial project. In contrast, […]

    The post Biden’s State of the Union Address Exposed by US Intelligence Threat Assessment first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    President Biden used the bully pulpit of the annual State of the Union Address to describe a world that significantly differed from the picture presented just a month earlier in the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community.

    Information fed to the general public is deliberately spun to sell the imperial project. In contrast, intelligence assessments for elite policy makers are designed to sustain the endeavor. That the president’s pronouncements diverge from the conclusions reached by his own intelligence community highlights the chasm between what is foisted on the public compared to what is understood within the bowels of the state.

    Unlike Biden’s bullish and bellicose pronouncements about “our leadership in the world,” the Assessment’s view was less triumphal. It states: “The United States faces an increasingly fragile global order.”

    The fraying US-imposed “rules based order” and its discredited neoliberal economic system are more and more being challenged by “states engaging in competitive behavior,” according to the Assessment. The report adds, fallout from the Gaza crisis, in particular, serves to “undermine” the US.

    Both pronouncements, however, have similar biases. Biden’s address to the nation was overtly political, accusing Trump of “bowing down” to Putin. But the supposedly neutral and objective “collective insights of the Intelligence Community” were likewise predisposed in favor of Democratic Party memes. Both blame Russian electoral interference for Trump’s ascension to the Oval Office in 2016. As proof, the so-called intelligence community again offered nothing more than its own assessment, lacking better evidence.

    “Ambitious” China

    Biden bragged in this address: “For years, all I’ve heard from my Republican friends…is China’s on the rise and America is falling behind. They’ve got it backward!” Contrary to his bravado about “we’re in a stronger position to win the competition for the 21st Century against China,” the World Bank predicts 4.5% GDP growth in China compared to 1.6% for the US in 2024.

    China has surpassed the US as the largest world economy by purchasing power parity. The Assessment forecasts slowed – but still greater than for the US – economic growth in what it labels as an “ambitious” China.

    The Assessment reports that China “now rivals” the US in DNA-sequencing and is the “world leader” in voice and image recognition and video analytics. Biden’s claim that, “I’ve made sure that the most advanced American technologies can’t be used in China,” is contradicted by the Assessment’s finding that China is “making progress” in producing advanced chips on its own.

    The Assessment notes: “China views Washington’s competitive measures against Beijing as part of a broader US…effort to contain its rise.” In this context, the Chinese perceive an increased likelihood of a US first-strike nuclear attack, according to the Assessment. Nevertheless, China has shown growing “confidence” in its nuclear deterrent capabilities against US aggression, also according to the Assessment.

    China is disadvantaged militarily, according to the Assessment, because it “lacks recent warfighting experience,” something the US has in excess. US intelligence estimates that China will only “fully modernize” its national defense by 2035 and will not become a “world-class military” until 2049.

    The Assessment anticipates increased Chinese push-back over Taiwan. Although Biden claimed that the US is “standing up for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” the US has done the opposite by continuing to destabilize and militarize the region. To wit, Biden said in his address, “I’ve revitalized our partnerships and alliances in the Pacific.”

    “Confrontational” Russia

    The Assessment labels Russia “confrontational,” projecting Washington’s own posture. In a fit of made-for-popular-consumption Russophobia, Biden warned in his address: “Putin of Russia is on the march…If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you, he will not!”

    While the Assessment warns of many threats, Russian expansionism – as Biden fear mongered  – is not one of them. In fact, the Assessment notes that Russia stepped down from intervening in neighboring Azerbaijan regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. The Assessment assures us: “Russia almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict with US and NATO forces.”

    The Assessment notes that Russia “maintains the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons stockpile.” But it adds that Russia sees its stockpile as “necessary for maintaining deterrence” (presumably from a US first strike). The Assessment, while describing Russia as a “capable and resilient adversary,” takes the contrary view to Biden’s, seeing Russia’s posture as mainly “defensive.”

    As the US proxy war against Russia drags on, Biden continues to campaign for expanding the US funding for Ukraine with no hint of a peace. For its part, the Assessment does not contest what it describes as Putin’s belief that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine.

    Rather, the Assessment sees no victory in sight for the US: “This deadlock plays to Russia’s strategic military advantages and is increasingly shifting the momentum in Moscow’s favor.” Not surprisingly, this huge admission of the futility of the US war effort in Ukraine coming from its own intelligence institutions has not been prominently reported by the follow-the-flag corporate press.

    The Assessment describes how Russia is strengthening and leveraging ties with China, Iran, and North Korea. Russia is mitigating the impacts of US-led sanctions, while “rebuild[ing] its credibility as a great power.” Russia’s deepening ties with China in particular have afforded it significant “protection from future sanctions.”

    Despite US-led coercive economic measures, the Assessment projects “modest” Russian GDP growth. Moscow has “successfully diverted” its oil exports and largely evaded the US/G7 price caps, retaining “significant energy leverage” as the second-largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to Europe. In short, Russia is “offsetting its decline in relations with the West” with a pivot to the Global South.

    Other global flashpoints

    Biden’s policy of “containing the threat posed by Iran” is elaborated in the Assessment. US-led sanctions are credited with putting “brakes on” Iran’s economy. In response, the Assessment reports, Tehran has “expanded its diplomatic influence” by improving ties with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.

    The Assessment correctly notes that Iran uses its nuclear program “to build negotiating leverage and respond to perceived international pressure,” pointing out that Iran would “restore JCPOA limits if the United States fulfilled its JCPOA commitments [emphasis added].”

    On the one hand, the Assessment preposterously accuses Iran of seeking to “block a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.” On the other, Iran is absolved of orchestrating or having any foreknowledge of the Hamas attack on Israel. This is a notable admission.

    The Gaza conflict, according to the Assessment, poses the “risk of escalation” into regional interstate war. Uncle Sam’s “key Arab partners,” the Assessment laments, face hostile domestic sentiment because their citizens (correctly) see the US and Israel as responsible for “the death and destruction.” Although the US is recognized as the “power broker” that could “end the conflict,” the Assessment (also correctly) implies that the US has not played that role.

    The Assessment foresees Israel needing to confront “armed resistance from Hamas for years to come.” While acknowledging that Hamas enjoys “broad support,” the Assessment questions Israeli President Netanyahu’s “viability” and “ability of rule.”

    Similar to the case of Iran, the Assessment explains, North Korea’s nuclear program is pursued as a “guarantor of regime security” and to “deter outside intervention.” North Korea’s missile launches, the Assessment admits, are responses to counter hostile US-South Korea military exercises. North Korea’s development of nuclear capabilities, the Assessment further acknowledges, are defensive to “enhance second-strike capabilities” in the contingency of a first strike by the US and its allies.

    In regard to immigration, Biden touts his “comprehensive plan to fix” our system. Given the current dysfunction on the US border, claiming credit there sounds more like a Republican talking point than one favoring the incumbent. Largely ignored in Biden’s address, the Assessment is concerned with global warming and its potentially destabilizing effect on the US-imposed global order by generating climate refugees.

    “Poor socioeconomic conditions and insecurity” further drive cross-border migration, warns the Assessment. While admitting that “lack of economic opportunities” are among the factors that drive Cuban, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan emigration, the Assessment incredulously rejects blaming US sanctions for driving people away from their homelands.

    Conclusion

    Unlike the upbeat “greatest comeback story never told” of the State of the Union address, the Assessment cautions:

    “Strains in US alliances and challenges to international norms have made it more difficult…to tackle global issues…. The world that emerges from this tumultuous period will be shaped by whoever… [is] most effective at advancing economic growth and providing benefits for more people, and by the powers…that are most able and willing to act on solutions to transnational issues and regional crises.”

    Meanwhile, the Assessment reports that Putin’s “Russia has increased social spending…and increased corporate taxes.” Also reported, Xi’s China is prioritizing “a more equitable distribution of wealth – replacing the focus on maximizing GDP growth.” Back home, Biden promised in his address “to end cancer as we know it” and prophesized that he will “save the planet from the climate crisis.” (For starters, I would settle for just stopping the genocide in Palestine and a negotiated peace in Ukraine.)

    The post Biden’s State of the Union Address Exposed by US Intelligence Threat Assessment first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Roger D. Harris.

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    Baku Said To Be Preparing To Reopen Tehran Embassy After Attack https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/18/baku-said-to-be-preparing-to-reopen-tehran-embassy-after-attack/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/18/baku-said-to-be-preparing-to-reopen-tehran-embassy-after-attack/#respond Mon, 18 Mar 2024 12:35:58 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-azerbaijan-embassy-tehran-reopening/32866417.html

    The Iranian government "bears responsibility" for the physical violence that led to the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman who died in police custody in 2022, and for the brutal crackdown on largely peaceful street protests that followed, a report by a United Nations fact-finding mission says.

    The report, issued on March 8 by the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran, said the mission “has established the existence of evidence of trauma to Ms. Amini’s body, inflicted while in the custody of the morality police."

    It said the mission found the "physical violence in custody led to Ms. Amini’s unlawful death.... On that basis, the state bears responsibility for her unlawful death.”

    Amini was arrested in Tehran on September 13, 2022, while visiting the Iranian capital with her family. She was detained by Iran's so-called "morality police" for allegedly improperly wearing her hijab, or hair-covering head scarf. Within hours of her detention, she was hospitalized in a coma and died on September 16.

    Her family has denied that Amini suffered from a preexisting health condition that may have contributed to her death, as claimed by the Iranian authorities, and her father has cited eyewitnesses as saying she was beaten while en route to a detention facility.

    The fact-finding report said the action “emphasizes the arbitrary character of Ms. Amini’s arrest and detention, which were based on laws and policies governing the mandatory hijab, which fundamentally discriminate against women and girls and are not permissible under international human rights law."

    "Those laws and policies violate the rights to freedom of expression, freedom of religion or belief, and the autonomy of women and girls. Ms. Amini’s arrest and detention, preceding her death in custody, constituted a violation of her right to liberty of person,” it said.

    The New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran hailed the findings and said they represented clear signs of "crimes against humanity."

    “The Islamic republic’s violent repression of peaceful dissent and severe discrimination against women and girls in Iran has been confirmed as constituting nothing short of crimes against humanity,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the center.

    “The government’s brutal crackdown on the Women, Life, Freedom protests has seen a litany of atrocities that include extrajudicial killings, torture, and rape. These violations disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in society, women, children, and minority groups,” he added.

    The report also said the Iranian government failed to “comply with its duty” to investigate the woman’s death promptly.

    “Most notably, judicial harassment and intimidation were aimed at her family in order to silence them and preempt them from seeking legal redress. Some family members faced arbitrary arrest, while the family’s lawyer, Saleh Nikbaht, and three journalists, Niloofar Hamedi, Elahe Mohammadi, and Nazila Maroufian, who reported on Ms. Amini’s death were arrested, prosecuted, and sentenced to imprisonment,” it added.

    Amini's death sparked mass protests, beginning in her home town of Saghez, then spreading around the country, and ultimately posed one of the biggest threats to Iran's clerical establishment since the foundation of the Islamic republic in 1979. At least 500 people were reported killed in the government’s crackdown on demonstrators.

    The UN report said "violations and crimes" under international law committed in the context of the Women, Life, Freedom protests include "extrajudicial and unlawful killings and murder, unnecessary and disproportionate use of force, arbitrary deprivation of liberty, torture, rape, enforced disappearances, and gender persecution.

    “The violent repression of peaceful protests and pervasive institutional discrimination against women and girls has led to serious human rights violations by the government of Iran, many amounting to crimes against humanity," the report said.

    The UN mission acknowledged that some state security forces were killed and injured during the demonstrations, but said it found that the majority of protests were peaceful.

    The mission stems from the UN Human Rights Council's mandate to the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran on November 24, 2022, to investigate alleged human rights violations in Iran related to the protests that followed Amini's death.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/18/baku-said-to-be-preparing-to-reopen-tehran-embassy-after-attack/feed/ 0 464896
    Iran’s Medical Council Warns Of Doctor Shortage Due To Emigration https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/16/irans-medical-council-warns-of-doctor-shortage-due-to-emigration/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/16/irans-medical-council-warns-of-doctor-shortage-due-to-emigration/#respond Sat, 16 Mar 2024 18:22:48 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-doctors-shortage-emigration/32864442.html

    The Iranian government "bears responsibility" for the physical violence that led to the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman who died in police custody in 2022, and for the brutal crackdown on largely peaceful street protests that followed, a report by a United Nations fact-finding mission says.

    The report, issued on March 8 by the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran, said the mission “has established the existence of evidence of trauma to Ms. Amini’s body, inflicted while in the custody of the morality police."

    It said the mission found the "physical violence in custody led to Ms. Amini’s unlawful death.... On that basis, the state bears responsibility for her unlawful death.”

    Amini was arrested in Tehran on September 13, 2022, while visiting the Iranian capital with her family. She was detained by Iran's so-called "morality police" for allegedly improperly wearing her hijab, or hair-covering head scarf. Within hours of her detention, she was hospitalized in a coma and died on September 16.

    Her family has denied that Amini suffered from a preexisting health condition that may have contributed to her death, as claimed by the Iranian authorities, and her father has cited eyewitnesses as saying she was beaten while en route to a detention facility.

    The fact-finding report said the action “emphasizes the arbitrary character of Ms. Amini’s arrest and detention, which were based on laws and policies governing the mandatory hijab, which fundamentally discriminate against women and girls and are not permissible under international human rights law."

    "Those laws and policies violate the rights to freedom of expression, freedom of religion or belief, and the autonomy of women and girls. Ms. Amini’s arrest and detention, preceding her death in custody, constituted a violation of her right to liberty of person,” it said.

    The New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran hailed the findings and said they represented clear signs of "crimes against humanity."

    “The Islamic republic’s violent repression of peaceful dissent and severe discrimination against women and girls in Iran has been confirmed as constituting nothing short of crimes against humanity,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the center.

    “The government’s brutal crackdown on the Women, Life, Freedom protests has seen a litany of atrocities that include extrajudicial killings, torture, and rape. These violations disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in society, women, children, and minority groups,” he added.

    The report also said the Iranian government failed to “comply with its duty” to investigate the woman’s death promptly.

    “Most notably, judicial harassment and intimidation were aimed at her family in order to silence them and preempt them from seeking legal redress. Some family members faced arbitrary arrest, while the family’s lawyer, Saleh Nikbaht, and three journalists, Niloofar Hamedi, Elahe Mohammadi, and Nazila Maroufian, who reported on Ms. Amini’s death were arrested, prosecuted, and sentenced to imprisonment,” it added.

    Amini's death sparked mass protests, beginning in her home town of Saghez, then spreading around the country, and ultimately posed one of the biggest threats to Iran's clerical establishment since the foundation of the Islamic republic in 1979. At least 500 people were reported killed in the government’s crackdown on demonstrators.

    The UN report said "violations and crimes" under international law committed in the context of the Women, Life, Freedom protests include "extrajudicial and unlawful killings and murder, unnecessary and disproportionate use of force, arbitrary deprivation of liberty, torture, rape, enforced disappearances, and gender persecution.

    “The violent repression of peaceful protests and pervasive institutional discrimination against women and girls has led to serious human rights violations by the government of Iran, many amounting to crimes against humanity," the report said.

    The UN mission acknowledged that some state security forces were killed and injured during the demonstrations, but said it found that the majority of protests were peaceful.

    The mission stems from the UN Human Rights Council's mandate to the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran on November 24, 2022, to investigate alleged human rights violations in Iran related to the protests that followed Amini's death.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/16/irans-medical-council-warns-of-doctor-shortage-due-to-emigration/feed/ 0 464713
    Iranian Religious Scholar, Women’s Rights Activist Arrested, Husband Says https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/16/iranian-religious-scholar-womens-rights-activist-arrested-husband-says/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/16/iranian-religious-scholar-womens-rights-activist-arrested-husband-says/#respond Sat, 16 Mar 2024 16:10:08 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-vasmaghi-arrest-hijab/32864402.html

    The Iranian government "bears responsibility" for the physical violence that led to the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman who died in police custody in 2022, and for the brutal crackdown on largely peaceful street protests that followed, a report by a United Nations fact-finding mission says.

    The report, issued on March 8 by the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran, said the mission “has established the existence of evidence of trauma to Ms. Amini’s body, inflicted while in the custody of the morality police."

    It said the mission found the "physical violence in custody led to Ms. Amini’s unlawful death.... On that basis, the state bears responsibility for her unlawful death.”

    Amini was arrested in Tehran on September 13, 2022, while visiting the Iranian capital with her family. She was detained by Iran's so-called "morality police" for allegedly improperly wearing her hijab, or hair-covering head scarf. Within hours of her detention, she was hospitalized in a coma and died on September 16.

    Her family has denied that Amini suffered from a preexisting health condition that may have contributed to her death, as claimed by the Iranian authorities, and her father has cited eyewitnesses as saying she was beaten while en route to a detention facility.

    The fact-finding report said the action “emphasizes the arbitrary character of Ms. Amini’s arrest and detention, which were based on laws and policies governing the mandatory hijab, which fundamentally discriminate against women and girls and are not permissible under international human rights law."

    "Those laws and policies violate the rights to freedom of expression, freedom of religion or belief, and the autonomy of women and girls. Ms. Amini’s arrest and detention, preceding her death in custody, constituted a violation of her right to liberty of person,” it said.

    The New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran hailed the findings and said they represented clear signs of "crimes against humanity."

    “The Islamic republic’s violent repression of peaceful dissent and severe discrimination against women and girls in Iran has been confirmed as constituting nothing short of crimes against humanity,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the center.

    “The government’s brutal crackdown on the Women, Life, Freedom protests has seen a litany of atrocities that include extrajudicial killings, torture, and rape. These violations disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in society, women, children, and minority groups,” he added.

    The report also said the Iranian government failed to “comply with its duty” to investigate the woman’s death promptly.

    “Most notably, judicial harassment and intimidation were aimed at her family in order to silence them and preempt them from seeking legal redress. Some family members faced arbitrary arrest, while the family’s lawyer, Saleh Nikbaht, and three journalists, Niloofar Hamedi, Elahe Mohammadi, and Nazila Maroufian, who reported on Ms. Amini’s death were arrested, prosecuted, and sentenced to imprisonment,” it added.

    Amini's death sparked mass protests, beginning in her home town of Saghez, then spreading around the country, and ultimately posed one of the biggest threats to Iran's clerical establishment since the foundation of the Islamic republic in 1979. At least 500 people were reported killed in the government’s crackdown on demonstrators.

    The UN report said "violations and crimes" under international law committed in the context of the Women, Life, Freedom protests include "extrajudicial and unlawful killings and murder, unnecessary and disproportionate use of force, arbitrary deprivation of liberty, torture, rape, enforced disappearances, and gender persecution.

    “The violent repression of peaceful protests and pervasive institutional discrimination against women and girls has led to serious human rights violations by the government of Iran, many amounting to crimes against humanity," the report said.

    The UN mission acknowledged that some state security forces were killed and injured during the demonstrations, but said it found that the majority of protests were peaceful.

    The mission stems from the UN Human Rights Council's mandate to the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran on November 24, 2022, to investigate alleged human rights violations in Iran related to the protests that followed Amini's death.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/16/iranian-religious-scholar-womens-rights-activist-arrested-husband-says/feed/ 0 464734
    Oscar-Winning Director Asghar Farhadi Cleared Of Plagiarism By Iranian Court https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/oscar-winning-director-asghar-farhadi-cleared-of-plagiarism-by-iranian-court/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/oscar-winning-director-asghar-farhadi-cleared-of-plagiarism-by-iranian-court/#respond Wed, 13 Mar 2024 19:56:57 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-asghar-farhadi-film-plagiarism-case/32860574.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/oscar-winning-director-asghar-farhadi-cleared-of-plagiarism-by-iranian-court/feed/ 0 463945
    Iran’s Inflation Taking Bite Out Of Traditional Persian New Year Meals https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/irans-inflation-taking-bite-out-of-traditional-persian-new-year-meals/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/irans-inflation-taking-bite-out-of-traditional-persian-new-year-meals/#respond Wed, 13 Mar 2024 19:36:03 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-inflation-persian-new-year-/32860555.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/irans-inflation-taking-bite-out-of-traditional-persian-new-year-meals/feed/ 0 464030
    Demystifying Iran and the Resistance Axis w/Rania Khalek and Nima Shirazi https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/demystifying-iran-and-the-resistance-axis-w-rania-khalek-and-nima-shirazi/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/demystifying-iran-and-the-resistance-axis-w-rania-khalek-and-nima-shirazi/#respond Wed, 13 Mar 2024 15:31:48 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=87a8f5d7bff8bfeeff00b71e95c2f1b7
    This content originally appeared on The Real News Network and was authored by The Real News Network.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/13/demystifying-iran-and-the-resistance-axis-w-rania-khalek-and-nima-shirazi/feed/ 0 463895
    Iran Official Says Health System Faces ‘Disaster’ Over Nurse Exodus https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/12/iran-official-says-health-system-faces-disaster-over-nurse-exodus/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/12/iran-official-says-health-system-faces-disaster-over-nurse-exodus/#respond Tue, 12 Mar 2024 16:53:00 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-health-care-system-nurse-exodus/32858879.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/12/iran-official-says-health-system-faces-disaster-over-nurse-exodus/feed/ 0 463758
    Two Women Arrested In Tehran For Dancing Dressed As Fictional Folk Character https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/11/two-women-arrested-in-tehran-for-dancing-dressed-as-fictional-folk-character/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/11/two-women-arrested-in-tehran-for-dancing-dressed-as-fictional-folk-character/#respond Mon, 11 Mar 2024 17:06:47 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-women-arrested-dancing-character/32857358.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/11/two-women-arrested-in-tehran-for-dancing-dressed-as-fictional-folk-character/feed/ 0 463377
    Imprisoned Iranian Cleric Says Under Pressure To Confess To Crimes He Didn’t Commit https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/10/imprisoned-iranian-cleric-says-under-pressure-to-confess-to-crimes-he-didnt-commit/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/10/imprisoned-iranian-cleric-says-under-pressure-to-confess-to-crimes-he-didnt-commit/#respond Sun, 10 Mar 2024 11:22:24 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/imprisoned-iran-cleric-pressure-confess/32855798.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/10/imprisoned-iranian-cleric-says-under-pressure-to-confess-to-crimes-he-didnt-commit/feed/ 0 463218
    Rights Groups Say Hundreds Of Iranian Women Detained Last Year, Dozens Still Held https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/10/rights-groups-say-hundreds-of-iranian-women-detained-last-year-dozens-still-held/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/10/rights-groups-say-hundreds-of-iranian-women-detained-last-year-dozens-still-held/#respond Sun, 10 Mar 2024 11:11:37 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/rights-group-iran-hundreds-women-detained-/32855793.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/10/rights-groups-say-hundreds-of-iranian-women-detained-last-year-dozens-still-held/feed/ 0 463230
    Iran Rejects Critical UN Report On Death Of Mahsa Amini, Crackdown On Protests https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/09/iran-rejects-critical-un-report-on-death-of-mahsa-amini-crackdown-on-protests/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/09/iran-rejects-critical-un-report-on-death-of-mahsa-amini-crackdown-on-protests/#respond Sat, 09 Mar 2024 10:46:56 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-rejects-un-report-amini-crackdown-protests/32854950.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/09/iran-rejects-critical-un-report-on-death-of-mahsa-amini-crackdown-on-protests/feed/ 0 463061
    Iranian Government ‘Bears Responsibility’ For Amini’s Death, Brutal Crackdown, UN Mission Says https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/08/iranian-government-bears-responsibility-for-aminis-death-brutal-crackdown-un-mission-says/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/08/iranian-government-bears-responsibility-for-aminis-death-brutal-crackdown-un-mission-says/#respond Fri, 08 Mar 2024 18:06:55 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-un-fact-finding-mission-amini-death-crackdown-protests/32854252.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/08/iranian-government-bears-responsibility-for-aminis-death-brutal-crackdown-un-mission-says/feed/ 0 463155
    Iran Should Immediately Release Seized Tanker, U.S. Says https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/07/iran-should-immediately-release-seized-tanker-u-s-says/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/07/iran-should-immediately-release-seized-tanker-u-s-says/#respond Thu, 07 Mar 2024 06:26:01 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-tanker-advantage-sweet-seized/32851342.html Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

    The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

    Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

    Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

    “These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

    'Widening Divide'

    Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

    Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

    Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

    This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


    “It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

    Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

    Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

    Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

    Beyond Boycott

    The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

    The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

    Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
    Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

    But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

    “This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

    Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

    By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

    “Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

    Hard-Line Dominance

    Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

    The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

    “We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

    “This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

    A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

    “The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

    Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

    Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

    “There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/07/iran-should-immediately-release-seized-tanker-u-s-says/feed/ 0 462808
    Magnitude 5.4 Earthquake Strikes Southwestern Iran, Says U.S. Geological Survey https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/05/magnitude-5-4-earthquake-strikes-southwestern-iran-says-u-s-geological-survey/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/05/magnitude-5-4-earthquake-strikes-southwestern-iran-says-u-s-geological-survey/#respond Tue, 05 Mar 2024 07:20:39 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-earthquake-5-4-magnitude-fannuj/32848283.html Iran is eager to build on its longstanding alliance with Syria, but Tehran's achievements in expanding its influence in the Arab country are threatening one of its primary objectives: staying out of the line of fire in its shadow wars in the Middle East.

    As Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said earlier this month during a trip to Damascus on the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran considers Syria to be on the front line of its "axis of resistance," its loose network of proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.

    After meeting on February 11 with top Syrian officials and President Bashar al-Assad, Amir-Abdollahian stressed the important role Damascus plays in opposing its enemies and in establishing "stability and security" in the increasingly volatile region.

    But while Iran's top diplomat cited the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip as a position of strength for the axis and a stimulus of increased cooperation with Damascus, observers and media reports suggest that direct blowback against Iranian interests and personnel in Syria is prompting Tehran to recalculate its approach.

    Generational Relationship

    Iran has invested heavily into its relations with Syria for decades as part of the Shi'ite Islamic republic's effort to export its revolution across the Arab and Muslim world.

    "The Iranians made big inroads with Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current leader of Syria, when they issued a religious ruling that Alawites -- the religion of the ruling family -- were deemed to be an orthodox, or acceptable, sect of Shi'ism," according to Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank.

    The ruling was the first of many steps in "a really deep, generational, state-to-state relationship between Iran and Syria," Cambanis said.

    Ties strengthened further during the early rule of Bashar al-Assad following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    "Assad was a relatively young ruler, he feared a U.S. invasion, and he found that a growing partnership in coordination with Iran kept him more secure in his own domestic power base, and also kept him more secure vis-a-vis the threat of some kind of U.S, or U.S.-orchestrated, regime-change project," Cambanis said.

    That bet appears to have paid off for both Iran and the Syrian government.

    Assad remains securely in power despite the continuing Syrian civil war, in which Iran intervened militarily in 2013 in large part to prevent Assad's ouster by the U.S.-backed opposition.

    Tehran, meanwhile, has managed to significantly boost its influence in Syria without maintaining a significant military presence by deploying hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.

    "The actual number of IRGC forces is very limited," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, adding that the heavy lifting of the fighting in Syria is carried out by Afghans in the Fatemiyun Brigade and Pakistanis in the Zainabiyn Brigade, as well as by Iraqi militias.

    Iran has also established a land corridor linking it to the Levant that Azizi described as the "logistical backbone of the axis of resistance."

    Apart from Iran, Syria is the only other state actor in the axis.

    The corridor "is used by Iran to send arms and equipment to [Lebanese] Hizballah," Azizi said, referring to the IRGC-created militant group that has rained missiles down on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza.

    It is also used "to facilitate the back-and-forth deployment of troops on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border," which Azizi said has essentially become an arena of operations for pro-Iran militias.

    Success In Syria

    Beginning in 2018, victories in the Syrian civil war allowed Iran to reduce its IRGC presence, Azizi said, with foreign mercenaries and local fighters it trained increasingly integrated into the Syrian armed forces. In a major contrast to the beginning of the war that erupted in 2011, Azizi added, most of the recruitment and training of forces in Syria was handed off by the IRGC to Hizballah.

    Successes in Syria also allowed Tehran to buttress its defenses against the possibility of an attack on Iranian soil by Israel.

    "Once Iran achieved its strategic objectives of securing the survival of the Assad regime and the overland corridor, the IRGC defined the new objective of establishing a new dormant front against Israel along the Israel-Syria border," said Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "The purpose of the dormant front is to complicate Israeli calculations should the Jewish state decide to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities."

    All the while, Iran has put pressure on Israel and the United States while maintaining its key objective of avoiding direct war, with the proxy fighters it trained and equipped absorbing most retaliatory blows in Syria.

    "Since neither Syria nor Iran [is] interested in a direct war against Israel, the three states, through their actions, negotiated the rules of the game: The IRGC’s expendable allies such as the Afghans dig deep trenches and tunnels along the Israel border, Israel bombs the positions; Iran does not retaliate against Israel; and the Assad regime remains a spectator," Alfoneh said in written comments.

    "All three players still largely abide by these rules, which remain in place despite the Gaza war, and the U.S. neither is nor desires to get entangled in this game," Azizi wrote.

    Rules Broken

    That is not to say those unspoken rules are not being broken following the outbreak of the war in Gaza sparked by the deadly October 7 assault on Israel carried out by Palestinian extremist group Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    Israel's large-scale retaliation in Gaza has fueled attacks by the axis of resistance in solidarity with its partner Hamas and in the name of the Palestinian cause.

    Hizballah has led the fight against Israel, while the Iranian-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have launched attacks against Israel and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. And Iranian-backed forces have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East, including a drone attack launched by an Iraqi militia that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan in January.

    In Syria, U.S. forces stationed there to counter the Islamic State extremist group have been attacked regularly since the onset of the war in Gaza, including a February 5 drone attack that killed U.S.-allied Kurdish troops at the largest U.S. base in Syria, located in the eastern province of Deir al-Zur.

    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.
    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.

    Amid the rising tensions, Tehran has not been able to avoid direct retaliation for its open support for its proxies and partners, and Iranian sites and personnel in Syria have been hit hard.

    Since December, more than a dozen IRGC commanders and officers officially sent to Syria as advisers have been killed in strikes in and around Damascus blamed on Israel, including General Sayyed Razi Musavi, a senior adviser to the IRGC and one of Iran's most influential military figures in Syria.

    And the United States, in retaliation for the attack on its base in Jordan, in early February directly attacked IRGC sites and Iranian-backed militias on either side of the Syrian-Iraqi border.

    Both the United States and Iran have said they do not seek war. And in Syria, Cambanis said, there are "certain rules of the road that are essentially designed to create useful fictions so that the U.S. and Iran do not end up in direct conflict with each other."

    But since the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel, Cambanis said, "there are so many forces attacking each other on Syrian territory that it’s really easy for just a mistake or a miscalculation that no one wanted."

    Recalculation Time?

    In the wake of the killings of Musavi and other top IRGC personnel, an exclusive report by Reuters earlier this month cited multiple sources as saying Iran had scaled down its deployment of senior officers and would rely more on allied Sh'ite militias to maintain Iranian influence in Syria.

    Azizi said that while previously, if Iranians were killed as the result of Israeli strikes in Syria, it was essentially written off as collateral damage.

    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.
    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.

    "But now they are the targets," Azizi said. "And that's what concerns Iran, especially since the killing of Musavi."

    But while the deaths indicate a change in strategy by Israel that at the least "requires the Iranian side to change tactics," Azizi suggested the redeployment was more about trying to determine possible leaks that may have allowed Israel to take out its officers and rethinking how Iran would use its personnel in the future.

    Cambanis expressed skepticism that Iran would ever withdraw its advisers in Syria and hand their responsibilities over to the militias they trained.

    "They have officers who speak Arabic, who have spent decades cycling in and out of different positions in Syria and other Arab countries. They have local knowledge, long-term relationships with local commanders," Cambanis said. "They're going to continue that model."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/05/magnitude-5-4-earthquake-strikes-southwestern-iran-says-u-s-geological-survey/feed/ 0 462165
    Iranian Judiciary Says ‘Mossad Agent’ Executed In Connection With Attack In Isfahan https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/05/iranian-judiciary-says-mossad-agent-executed-in-connection-with-attack-in-isfahan/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/05/iranian-judiciary-says-mossad-agent-executed-in-connection-with-attack-in-isfahan/#respond Tue, 05 Mar 2024 06:40:00 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-mossad-agent-executed-isfahan-attack/32848231.html Iran is eager to build on its longstanding alliance with Syria, but Tehran's achievements in expanding its influence in the Arab country are threatening one of its primary objectives: staying out of the line of fire in its shadow wars in the Middle East.

    As Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said earlier this month during a trip to Damascus on the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran considers Syria to be on the front line of its "axis of resistance," its loose network of proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.

    After meeting on February 11 with top Syrian officials and President Bashar al-Assad, Amir-Abdollahian stressed the important role Damascus plays in opposing its enemies and in establishing "stability and security" in the increasingly volatile region.

    But while Iran's top diplomat cited the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip as a position of strength for the axis and a stimulus of increased cooperation with Damascus, observers and media reports suggest that direct blowback against Iranian interests and personnel in Syria is prompting Tehran to recalculate its approach.

    Generational Relationship

    Iran has invested heavily into its relations with Syria for decades as part of the Shi'ite Islamic republic's effort to export its revolution across the Arab and Muslim world.

    "The Iranians made big inroads with Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current leader of Syria, when they issued a religious ruling that Alawites -- the religion of the ruling family -- were deemed to be an orthodox, or acceptable, sect of Shi'ism," according to Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank.

    The ruling was the first of many steps in "a really deep, generational, state-to-state relationship between Iran and Syria," Cambanis said.

    Ties strengthened further during the early rule of Bashar al-Assad following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    "Assad was a relatively young ruler, he feared a U.S. invasion, and he found that a growing partnership in coordination with Iran kept him more secure in his own domestic power base, and also kept him more secure vis-a-vis the threat of some kind of U.S, or U.S.-orchestrated, regime-change project," Cambanis said.

    That bet appears to have paid off for both Iran and the Syrian government.

    Assad remains securely in power despite the continuing Syrian civil war, in which Iran intervened militarily in 2013 in large part to prevent Assad's ouster by the U.S.-backed opposition.

    Tehran, meanwhile, has managed to significantly boost its influence in Syria without maintaining a significant military presence by deploying hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.

    "The actual number of IRGC forces is very limited," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, adding that the heavy lifting of the fighting in Syria is carried out by Afghans in the Fatemiyun Brigade and Pakistanis in the Zainabiyn Brigade, as well as by Iraqi militias.

    Iran has also established a land corridor linking it to the Levant that Azizi described as the "logistical backbone of the axis of resistance."

    Apart from Iran, Syria is the only other state actor in the axis.

    The corridor "is used by Iran to send arms and equipment to [Lebanese] Hizballah," Azizi said, referring to the IRGC-created militant group that has rained missiles down on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza.

    It is also used "to facilitate the back-and-forth deployment of troops on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border," which Azizi said has essentially become an arena of operations for pro-Iran militias.

    Success In Syria

    Beginning in 2018, victories in the Syrian civil war allowed Iran to reduce its IRGC presence, Azizi said, with foreign mercenaries and local fighters it trained increasingly integrated into the Syrian armed forces. In a major contrast to the beginning of the war that erupted in 2011, Azizi added, most of the recruitment and training of forces in Syria was handed off by the IRGC to Hizballah.

    Successes in Syria also allowed Tehran to buttress its defenses against the possibility of an attack on Iranian soil by Israel.

    "Once Iran achieved its strategic objectives of securing the survival of the Assad regime and the overland corridor, the IRGC defined the new objective of establishing a new dormant front against Israel along the Israel-Syria border," said Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "The purpose of the dormant front is to complicate Israeli calculations should the Jewish state decide to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities."

    All the while, Iran has put pressure on Israel and the United States while maintaining its key objective of avoiding direct war, with the proxy fighters it trained and equipped absorbing most retaliatory blows in Syria.

    "Since neither Syria nor Iran [is] interested in a direct war against Israel, the three states, through their actions, negotiated the rules of the game: The IRGC’s expendable allies such as the Afghans dig deep trenches and tunnels along the Israel border, Israel bombs the positions; Iran does not retaliate against Israel; and the Assad regime remains a spectator," Alfoneh said in written comments.

    "All three players still largely abide by these rules, which remain in place despite the Gaza war, and the U.S. neither is nor desires to get entangled in this game," Azizi wrote.

    Rules Broken

    That is not to say those unspoken rules are not being broken following the outbreak of the war in Gaza sparked by the deadly October 7 assault on Israel carried out by Palestinian extremist group Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    Israel's large-scale retaliation in Gaza has fueled attacks by the axis of resistance in solidarity with its partner Hamas and in the name of the Palestinian cause.

    Hizballah has led the fight against Israel, while the Iranian-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have launched attacks against Israel and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. And Iranian-backed forces have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East, including a drone attack launched by an Iraqi militia that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan in January.

    In Syria, U.S. forces stationed there to counter the Islamic State extremist group have been attacked regularly since the onset of the war in Gaza, including a February 5 drone attack that killed U.S.-allied Kurdish troops at the largest U.S. base in Syria, located in the eastern province of Deir al-Zur.

    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.
    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.

    Amid the rising tensions, Tehran has not been able to avoid direct retaliation for its open support for its proxies and partners, and Iranian sites and personnel in Syria have been hit hard.

    Since December, more than a dozen IRGC commanders and officers officially sent to Syria as advisers have been killed in strikes in and around Damascus blamed on Israel, including General Sayyed Razi Musavi, a senior adviser to the IRGC and one of Iran's most influential military figures in Syria.

    And the United States, in retaliation for the attack on its base in Jordan, in early February directly attacked IRGC sites and Iranian-backed militias on either side of the Syrian-Iraqi border.

    Both the United States and Iran have said they do not seek war. And in Syria, Cambanis said, there are "certain rules of the road that are essentially designed to create useful fictions so that the U.S. and Iran do not end up in direct conflict with each other."

    But since the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel, Cambanis said, "there are so many forces attacking each other on Syrian territory that it’s really easy for just a mistake or a miscalculation that no one wanted."

    Recalculation Time?

    In the wake of the killings of Musavi and other top IRGC personnel, an exclusive report by Reuters earlier this month cited multiple sources as saying Iran had scaled down its deployment of senior officers and would rely more on allied Sh'ite militias to maintain Iranian influence in Syria.

    Azizi said that while previously, if Iranians were killed as the result of Israeli strikes in Syria, it was essentially written off as collateral damage.

    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.
    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.

    "But now they are the targets," Azizi said. "And that's what concerns Iran, especially since the killing of Musavi."

    But while the deaths indicate a change in strategy by Israel that at the least "requires the Iranian side to change tactics," Azizi suggested the redeployment was more about trying to determine possible leaks that may have allowed Israel to take out its officers and rethinking how Iran would use its personnel in the future.

    Cambanis expressed skepticism that Iran would ever withdraw its advisers in Syria and hand their responsibilities over to the militias they trained.

    "They have officers who speak Arabic, who have spent decades cycling in and out of different positions in Syria and other Arab countries. They have local knowledge, long-term relationships with local commanders," Cambanis said. "They're going to continue that model."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/05/iranian-judiciary-says-mossad-agent-executed-in-connection-with-attack-in-isfahan/feed/ 0 462263
    U.S. Condemns Sentencing Of Iranian Singer Who Won Grammy https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/u-s-condemns-sentencing-of-iranian-singer-who-won-grammy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/u-s-condemns-sentencing-of-iranian-singer-who-won-grammy/#respond Mon, 04 Mar 2024 21:25:55 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-us-condemns-hajipour-prison-grammy/32847673.html Iran is eager to build on its longstanding alliance with Syria, but Tehran's achievements in expanding its influence in the Arab country are threatening one of its primary objectives: staying out of the line of fire in its shadow wars in the Middle East.

    As Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said earlier this month during a trip to Damascus on the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran considers Syria to be on the front line of its "axis of resistance," its loose network of proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.

    After meeting on February 11 with top Syrian officials and President Bashar al-Assad, Amir-Abdollahian stressed the important role Damascus plays in opposing its enemies and in establishing "stability and security" in the increasingly volatile region.

    But while Iran's top diplomat cited the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip as a position of strength for the axis and a stimulus of increased cooperation with Damascus, observers and media reports suggest that direct blowback against Iranian interests and personnel in Syria is prompting Tehran to recalculate its approach.

    Generational Relationship

    Iran has invested heavily into its relations with Syria for decades as part of the Shi'ite Islamic republic's effort to export its revolution across the Arab and Muslim world.

    "The Iranians made big inroads with Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current leader of Syria, when they issued a religious ruling that Alawites -- the religion of the ruling family -- were deemed to be an orthodox, or acceptable, sect of Shi'ism," according to Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank.

    The ruling was the first of many steps in "a really deep, generational, state-to-state relationship between Iran and Syria," Cambanis said.

    Ties strengthened further during the early rule of Bashar al-Assad following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    "Assad was a relatively young ruler, he feared a U.S. invasion, and he found that a growing partnership in coordination with Iran kept him more secure in his own domestic power base, and also kept him more secure vis-a-vis the threat of some kind of U.S, or U.S.-orchestrated, regime-change project," Cambanis said.

    That bet appears to have paid off for both Iran and the Syrian government.

    Assad remains securely in power despite the continuing Syrian civil war, in which Iran intervened militarily in 2013 in large part to prevent Assad's ouster by the U.S.-backed opposition.

    Tehran, meanwhile, has managed to significantly boost its influence in Syria without maintaining a significant military presence by deploying hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.

    "The actual number of IRGC forces is very limited," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, adding that the heavy lifting of the fighting in Syria is carried out by Afghans in the Fatemiyun Brigade and Pakistanis in the Zainabiyn Brigade, as well as by Iraqi militias.

    Iran has also established a land corridor linking it to the Levant that Azizi described as the "logistical backbone of the axis of resistance."

    Apart from Iran, Syria is the only other state actor in the axis.

    The corridor "is used by Iran to send arms and equipment to [Lebanese] Hizballah," Azizi said, referring to the IRGC-created militant group that has rained missiles down on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza.

    It is also used "to facilitate the back-and-forth deployment of troops on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border," which Azizi said has essentially become an arena of operations for pro-Iran militias.

    Success In Syria

    Beginning in 2018, victories in the Syrian civil war allowed Iran to reduce its IRGC presence, Azizi said, with foreign mercenaries and local fighters it trained increasingly integrated into the Syrian armed forces. In a major contrast to the beginning of the war that erupted in 2011, Azizi added, most of the recruitment and training of forces in Syria was handed off by the IRGC to Hizballah.

    Successes in Syria also allowed Tehran to buttress its defenses against the possibility of an attack on Iranian soil by Israel.

    "Once Iran achieved its strategic objectives of securing the survival of the Assad regime and the overland corridor, the IRGC defined the new objective of establishing a new dormant front against Israel along the Israel-Syria border," said Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "The purpose of the dormant front is to complicate Israeli calculations should the Jewish state decide to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities."

    All the while, Iran has put pressure on Israel and the United States while maintaining its key objective of avoiding direct war, with the proxy fighters it trained and equipped absorbing most retaliatory blows in Syria.

    "Since neither Syria nor Iran [is] interested in a direct war against Israel, the three states, through their actions, negotiated the rules of the game: The IRGC’s expendable allies such as the Afghans dig deep trenches and tunnels along the Israel border, Israel bombs the positions; Iran does not retaliate against Israel; and the Assad regime remains a spectator," Alfoneh said in written comments.

    "All three players still largely abide by these rules, which remain in place despite the Gaza war, and the U.S. neither is nor desires to get entangled in this game," Azizi wrote.

    Rules Broken

    That is not to say those unspoken rules are not being broken following the outbreak of the war in Gaza sparked by the deadly October 7 assault on Israel carried out by Palestinian extremist group Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    Israel's large-scale retaliation in Gaza has fueled attacks by the axis of resistance in solidarity with its partner Hamas and in the name of the Palestinian cause.

    Hizballah has led the fight against Israel, while the Iranian-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have launched attacks against Israel and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. And Iranian-backed forces have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East, including a drone attack launched by an Iraqi militia that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan in January.

    In Syria, U.S. forces stationed there to counter the Islamic State extremist group have been attacked regularly since the onset of the war in Gaza, including a February 5 drone attack that killed U.S.-allied Kurdish troops at the largest U.S. base in Syria, located in the eastern province of Deir al-Zur.

    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.
    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.

    Amid the rising tensions, Tehran has not been able to avoid direct retaliation for its open support for its proxies and partners, and Iranian sites and personnel in Syria have been hit hard.

    Since December, more than a dozen IRGC commanders and officers officially sent to Syria as advisers have been killed in strikes in and around Damascus blamed on Israel, including General Sayyed Razi Musavi, a senior adviser to the IRGC and one of Iran's most influential military figures in Syria.

    And the United States, in retaliation for the attack on its base in Jordan, in early February directly attacked IRGC sites and Iranian-backed militias on either side of the Syrian-Iraqi border.

    Both the United States and Iran have said they do not seek war. And in Syria, Cambanis said, there are "certain rules of the road that are essentially designed to create useful fictions so that the U.S. and Iran do not end up in direct conflict with each other."

    But since the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel, Cambanis said, "there are so many forces attacking each other on Syrian territory that it’s really easy for just a mistake or a miscalculation that no one wanted."

    Recalculation Time?

    In the wake of the killings of Musavi and other top IRGC personnel, an exclusive report by Reuters earlier this month cited multiple sources as saying Iran had scaled down its deployment of senior officers and would rely more on allied Sh'ite militias to maintain Iranian influence in Syria.

    Azizi said that while previously, if Iranians were killed as the result of Israeli strikes in Syria, it was essentially written off as collateral damage.

    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.
    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.

    "But now they are the targets," Azizi said. "And that's what concerns Iran, especially since the killing of Musavi."

    But while the deaths indicate a change in strategy by Israel that at the least "requires the Iranian side to change tactics," Azizi suggested the redeployment was more about trying to determine possible leaks that may have allowed Israel to take out its officers and rethinking how Iran would use its personnel in the future.

    Cambanis expressed skepticism that Iran would ever withdraw its advisers in Syria and hand their responsibilities over to the militias they trained.

    "They have officers who speak Arabic, who have spent decades cycling in and out of different positions in Syria and other Arab countries. They have local knowledge, long-term relationships with local commanders," Cambanis said. "They're going to continue that model."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/u-s-condemns-sentencing-of-iranian-singer-who-won-grammy/feed/ 0 462295
    U.S. Says Low Turnout In Iranian Elections Another Sign Of ‘Discontent’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/u-s-says-low-turnout-in-iranian-elections-another-sign-of-discontent/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/u-s-says-low-turnout-in-iranian-elections-another-sign-of-discontent/#respond Mon, 04 Mar 2024 20:38:04 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-election-turnout-us-discontent/32847661.html Iran is eager to build on its longstanding alliance with Syria, but Tehran's achievements in expanding its influence in the Arab country are threatening one of its primary objectives: staying out of the line of fire in its shadow wars in the Middle East.

    As Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said earlier this month during a trip to Damascus on the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran considers Syria to be on the front line of its "axis of resistance," its loose network of proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.

    After meeting on February 11 with top Syrian officials and President Bashar al-Assad, Amir-Abdollahian stressed the important role Damascus plays in opposing its enemies and in establishing "stability and security" in the increasingly volatile region.

    But while Iran's top diplomat cited the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip as a position of strength for the axis and a stimulus of increased cooperation with Damascus, observers and media reports suggest that direct blowback against Iranian interests and personnel in Syria is prompting Tehran to recalculate its approach.

    Generational Relationship

    Iran has invested heavily into its relations with Syria for decades as part of the Shi'ite Islamic republic's effort to export its revolution across the Arab and Muslim world.

    "The Iranians made big inroads with Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current leader of Syria, when they issued a religious ruling that Alawites -- the religion of the ruling family -- were deemed to be an orthodox, or acceptable, sect of Shi'ism," according to Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank.

    The ruling was the first of many steps in "a really deep, generational, state-to-state relationship between Iran and Syria," Cambanis said.

    Ties strengthened further during the early rule of Bashar al-Assad following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    "Assad was a relatively young ruler, he feared a U.S. invasion, and he found that a growing partnership in coordination with Iran kept him more secure in his own domestic power base, and also kept him more secure vis-a-vis the threat of some kind of U.S, or U.S.-orchestrated, regime-change project," Cambanis said.

    That bet appears to have paid off for both Iran and the Syrian government.

    Assad remains securely in power despite the continuing Syrian civil war, in which Iran intervened militarily in 2013 in large part to prevent Assad's ouster by the U.S.-backed opposition.

    Tehran, meanwhile, has managed to significantly boost its influence in Syria without maintaining a significant military presence by deploying hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.

    "The actual number of IRGC forces is very limited," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, adding that the heavy lifting of the fighting in Syria is carried out by Afghans in the Fatemiyun Brigade and Pakistanis in the Zainabiyn Brigade, as well as by Iraqi militias.

    Iran has also established a land corridor linking it to the Levant that Azizi described as the "logistical backbone of the axis of resistance."

    Apart from Iran, Syria is the only other state actor in the axis.

    The corridor "is used by Iran to send arms and equipment to [Lebanese] Hizballah," Azizi said, referring to the IRGC-created militant group that has rained missiles down on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza.

    It is also used "to facilitate the back-and-forth deployment of troops on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border," which Azizi said has essentially become an arena of operations for pro-Iran militias.

    Success In Syria

    Beginning in 2018, victories in the Syrian civil war allowed Iran to reduce its IRGC presence, Azizi said, with foreign mercenaries and local fighters it trained increasingly integrated into the Syrian armed forces. In a major contrast to the beginning of the war that erupted in 2011, Azizi added, most of the recruitment and training of forces in Syria was handed off by the IRGC to Hizballah.

    Successes in Syria also allowed Tehran to buttress its defenses against the possibility of an attack on Iranian soil by Israel.

    "Once Iran achieved its strategic objectives of securing the survival of the Assad regime and the overland corridor, the IRGC defined the new objective of establishing a new dormant front against Israel along the Israel-Syria border," said Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "The purpose of the dormant front is to complicate Israeli calculations should the Jewish state decide to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities."

    All the while, Iran has put pressure on Israel and the United States while maintaining its key objective of avoiding direct war, with the proxy fighters it trained and equipped absorbing most retaliatory blows in Syria.

    "Since neither Syria nor Iran [is] interested in a direct war against Israel, the three states, through their actions, negotiated the rules of the game: The IRGC’s expendable allies such as the Afghans dig deep trenches and tunnels along the Israel border, Israel bombs the positions; Iran does not retaliate against Israel; and the Assad regime remains a spectator," Alfoneh said in written comments.

    "All three players still largely abide by these rules, which remain in place despite the Gaza war, and the U.S. neither is nor desires to get entangled in this game," Azizi wrote.

    Rules Broken

    That is not to say those unspoken rules are not being broken following the outbreak of the war in Gaza sparked by the deadly October 7 assault on Israel carried out by Palestinian extremist group Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    Israel's large-scale retaliation in Gaza has fueled attacks by the axis of resistance in solidarity with its partner Hamas and in the name of the Palestinian cause.

    Hizballah has led the fight against Israel, while the Iranian-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have launched attacks against Israel and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. And Iranian-backed forces have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East, including a drone attack launched by an Iraqi militia that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan in January.

    In Syria, U.S. forces stationed there to counter the Islamic State extremist group have been attacked regularly since the onset of the war in Gaza, including a February 5 drone attack that killed U.S.-allied Kurdish troops at the largest U.S. base in Syria, located in the eastern province of Deir al-Zur.

    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.
    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.

    Amid the rising tensions, Tehran has not been able to avoid direct retaliation for its open support for its proxies and partners, and Iranian sites and personnel in Syria have been hit hard.

    Since December, more than a dozen IRGC commanders and officers officially sent to Syria as advisers have been killed in strikes in and around Damascus blamed on Israel, including General Sayyed Razi Musavi, a senior adviser to the IRGC and one of Iran's most influential military figures in Syria.

    And the United States, in retaliation for the attack on its base in Jordan, in early February directly attacked IRGC sites and Iranian-backed militias on either side of the Syrian-Iraqi border.

    Both the United States and Iran have said they do not seek war. And in Syria, Cambanis said, there are "certain rules of the road that are essentially designed to create useful fictions so that the U.S. and Iran do not end up in direct conflict with each other."

    But since the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel, Cambanis said, "there are so many forces attacking each other on Syrian territory that it’s really easy for just a mistake or a miscalculation that no one wanted."

    Recalculation Time?

    In the wake of the killings of Musavi and other top IRGC personnel, an exclusive report by Reuters earlier this month cited multiple sources as saying Iran had scaled down its deployment of senior officers and would rely more on allied Sh'ite militias to maintain Iranian influence in Syria.

    Azizi said that while previously, if Iranians were killed as the result of Israeli strikes in Syria, it was essentially written off as collateral damage.

    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.
    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.

    "But now they are the targets," Azizi said. "And that's what concerns Iran, especially since the killing of Musavi."

    But while the deaths indicate a change in strategy by Israel that at the least "requires the Iranian side to change tactics," Azizi suggested the redeployment was more about trying to determine possible leaks that may have allowed Israel to take out its officers and rethinking how Iran would use its personnel in the future.

    Cambanis expressed skepticism that Iran would ever withdraw its advisers in Syria and hand their responsibilities over to the militias they trained.

    "They have officers who speak Arabic, who have spent decades cycling in and out of different positions in Syria and other Arab countries. They have local knowledge, long-term relationships with local commanders," Cambanis said. "They're going to continue that model."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/u-s-says-low-turnout-in-iranian-elections-another-sign-of-discontent/feed/ 0 462307
    Top Iranian Sunni Cleric Barred From Touring Flood Sites In Baluchistan https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/top-iranian-sunni-cleric-barred-from-touring-flood-sites-in-baluchistan/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/top-iranian-sunni-cleric-barred-from-touring-flood-sites-in-baluchistan/#respond Mon, 04 Mar 2024 19:56:39 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-sunni-cleric-visit-floods-baluchistan/32847643.html Iran is eager to build on its longstanding alliance with Syria, but Tehran's achievements in expanding its influence in the Arab country are threatening one of its primary objectives: staying out of the line of fire in its shadow wars in the Middle East.

    As Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said earlier this month during a trip to Damascus on the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran considers Syria to be on the front line of its "axis of resistance," its loose network of proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.

    After meeting on February 11 with top Syrian officials and President Bashar al-Assad, Amir-Abdollahian stressed the important role Damascus plays in opposing its enemies and in establishing "stability and security" in the increasingly volatile region.

    But while Iran's top diplomat cited the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip as a position of strength for the axis and a stimulus of increased cooperation with Damascus, observers and media reports suggest that direct blowback against Iranian interests and personnel in Syria is prompting Tehran to recalculate its approach.

    Generational Relationship

    Iran has invested heavily into its relations with Syria for decades as part of the Shi'ite Islamic republic's effort to export its revolution across the Arab and Muslim world.

    "The Iranians made big inroads with Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current leader of Syria, when they issued a religious ruling that Alawites -- the religion of the ruling family -- were deemed to be an orthodox, or acceptable, sect of Shi'ism," according to Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank.

    The ruling was the first of many steps in "a really deep, generational, state-to-state relationship between Iran and Syria," Cambanis said.

    Ties strengthened further during the early rule of Bashar al-Assad following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    "Assad was a relatively young ruler, he feared a U.S. invasion, and he found that a growing partnership in coordination with Iran kept him more secure in his own domestic power base, and also kept him more secure vis-a-vis the threat of some kind of U.S, or U.S.-orchestrated, regime-change project," Cambanis said.

    That bet appears to have paid off for both Iran and the Syrian government.

    Assad remains securely in power despite the continuing Syrian civil war, in which Iran intervened militarily in 2013 in large part to prevent Assad's ouster by the U.S.-backed opposition.

    Tehran, meanwhile, has managed to significantly boost its influence in Syria without maintaining a significant military presence by deploying hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.

    "The actual number of IRGC forces is very limited," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, adding that the heavy lifting of the fighting in Syria is carried out by Afghans in the Fatemiyun Brigade and Pakistanis in the Zainabiyn Brigade, as well as by Iraqi militias.

    Iran has also established a land corridor linking it to the Levant that Azizi described as the "logistical backbone of the axis of resistance."

    Apart from Iran, Syria is the only other state actor in the axis.

    The corridor "is used by Iran to send arms and equipment to [Lebanese] Hizballah," Azizi said, referring to the IRGC-created militant group that has rained missiles down on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza.

    It is also used "to facilitate the back-and-forth deployment of troops on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border," which Azizi said has essentially become an arena of operations for pro-Iran militias.

    Success In Syria

    Beginning in 2018, victories in the Syrian civil war allowed Iran to reduce its IRGC presence, Azizi said, with foreign mercenaries and local fighters it trained increasingly integrated into the Syrian armed forces. In a major contrast to the beginning of the war that erupted in 2011, Azizi added, most of the recruitment and training of forces in Syria was handed off by the IRGC to Hizballah.

    Successes in Syria also allowed Tehran to buttress its defenses against the possibility of an attack on Iranian soil by Israel.

    "Once Iran achieved its strategic objectives of securing the survival of the Assad regime and the overland corridor, the IRGC defined the new objective of establishing a new dormant front against Israel along the Israel-Syria border," said Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. "The purpose of the dormant front is to complicate Israeli calculations should the Jewish state decide to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities."

    All the while, Iran has put pressure on Israel and the United States while maintaining its key objective of avoiding direct war, with the proxy fighters it trained and equipped absorbing most retaliatory blows in Syria.

    "Since neither Syria nor Iran [is] interested in a direct war against Israel, the three states, through their actions, negotiated the rules of the game: The IRGC’s expendable allies such as the Afghans dig deep trenches and tunnels along the Israel border, Israel bombs the positions; Iran does not retaliate against Israel; and the Assad regime remains a spectator," Alfoneh said in written comments.

    "All three players still largely abide by these rules, which remain in place despite the Gaza war, and the U.S. neither is nor desires to get entangled in this game," Azizi wrote.

    Rules Broken

    That is not to say those unspoken rules are not being broken following the outbreak of the war in Gaza sparked by the deadly October 7 assault on Israel carried out by Palestinian extremist group Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    Israel's large-scale retaliation in Gaza has fueled attacks by the axis of resistance in solidarity with its partner Hamas and in the name of the Palestinian cause.

    Hizballah has led the fight against Israel, while the Iranian-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have launched attacks against Israel and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. And Iranian-backed forces have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East, including a drone attack launched by an Iraqi militia that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan in January.

    In Syria, U.S. forces stationed there to counter the Islamic State extremist group have been attacked regularly since the onset of the war in Gaza, including a February 5 drone attack that killed U.S.-allied Kurdish troops at the largest U.S. base in Syria, located in the eastern province of Deir al-Zur.

    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.
    Huthi fighters brandish their weapons during a protest following U.S. and British strikes, in the Huthi-controlled Yemeni capital, Sanaa, on January 12.

    Amid the rising tensions, Tehran has not been able to avoid direct retaliation for its open support for its proxies and partners, and Iranian sites and personnel in Syria have been hit hard.

    Since December, more than a dozen IRGC commanders and officers officially sent to Syria as advisers have been killed in strikes in and around Damascus blamed on Israel, including General Sayyed Razi Musavi, a senior adviser to the IRGC and one of Iran's most influential military figures in Syria.

    And the United States, in retaliation for the attack on its base in Jordan, in early February directly attacked IRGC sites and Iranian-backed militias on either side of the Syrian-Iraqi border.

    Both the United States and Iran have said they do not seek war. And in Syria, Cambanis said, there are "certain rules of the road that are essentially designed to create useful fictions so that the U.S. and Iran do not end up in direct conflict with each other."

    But since the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel, Cambanis said, "there are so many forces attacking each other on Syrian territory that it’s really easy for just a mistake or a miscalculation that no one wanted."

    Recalculation Time?

    In the wake of the killings of Musavi and other top IRGC personnel, an exclusive report by Reuters earlier this month cited multiple sources as saying Iran had scaled down its deployment of senior officers and would rely more on allied Sh'ite militias to maintain Iranian influence in Syria.

    Azizi said that while previously, if Iranians were killed as the result of Israeli strikes in Syria, it was essentially written off as collateral damage.

    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.
    Relatives of Musavi mourn over his flag-draped coffin at the supreme leader's office compound in Tehran on December 28, 2023.

    "But now they are the targets," Azizi said. "And that's what concerns Iran, especially since the killing of Musavi."

    But while the deaths indicate a change in strategy by Israel that at the least "requires the Iranian side to change tactics," Azizi suggested the redeployment was more about trying to determine possible leaks that may have allowed Israel to take out its officers and rethinking how Iran would use its personnel in the future.

    Cambanis expressed skepticism that Iran would ever withdraw its advisers in Syria and hand their responsibilities over to the militias they trained.

    "They have officers who speak Arabic, who have spent decades cycling in and out of different positions in Syria and other Arab countries. They have local knowledge, long-term relationships with local commanders," Cambanis said. "They're going to continue that model."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/04/top-iranian-sunni-cleric-barred-from-touring-flood-sites-in-baluchistan/feed/ 0 462328
    Iranian Grammy Winner Sentenced To Prison, Writing Anti-U.S. Music https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/01/iranian-grammy-winner-sentenced-to-prison-writing-anti-u-s-music/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/01/iranian-grammy-winner-sentenced-to-prison-writing-anti-u-s-music/#respond Fri, 01 Mar 2024 15:12:18 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iranian-grammy-winner-sentenced-to-prison-writing-music-anti-u-s-music/32844200.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

    The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

    Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

    Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

    Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

    Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

    Lebanon's Hizballah

    Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

    The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

    Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

    Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

    "Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

    Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

    The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

    Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

    He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

    Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

    Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

    Hamas

    Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

    Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

    Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

    For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

    But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

    Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

    "[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

    After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

    Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

    Palestinian Islamic Jihad

    With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

    Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

    The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    "Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

    Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

    Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

    Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

    But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

    "The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

    Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

    Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

    Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

    "It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

    Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

    The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

    Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

    Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

    "The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

    The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

    When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

    Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

    Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

    "The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

    "They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

    The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

    Yemen's Huthi Rebels

    The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

    In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

    With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

    The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

    "The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

    Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

    In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/03/01/iranian-grammy-winner-sentenced-to-prison-writing-anti-u-s-music/feed/ 0 461787
    Iran Cracks Down On Calls For Election Boycott https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/29/iran-cracks-down-on-calls-for-election-boycott/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/29/iran-cracks-down-on-calls-for-election-boycott/#respond Thu, 29 Feb 2024 18:59:07 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-elections-boycott-crackdown/32842888.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

    The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

    Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

    Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

    Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

    Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

    Lebanon's Hizballah

    Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

    The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

    Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

    Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

    "Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

    Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

    The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

    Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

    He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

    Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

    Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

    Hamas

    Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

    Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

    Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

    For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

    But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

    Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

    "[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

    After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

    Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

    Palestinian Islamic Jihad

    With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

    Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

    The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    "Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

    Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

    Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

    Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

    But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

    "The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

    Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

    Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

    Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

    "It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

    Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

    The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

    Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

    Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

    "The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

    The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

    When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

    Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

    Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

    "The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

    "They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

    The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

    Yemen's Huthi Rebels

    The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

    In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

    With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

    The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

    "The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

    Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

    In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/29/iran-cracks-down-on-calls-for-election-boycott/feed/ 0 461438
    ‘Engineered Elections’: Iran To Vote On Assembly Of Experts That May Elect Next Supreme Leader https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/28/engineered-elections-iran-to-vote-on-assembly-of-experts-that-may-elect-next-supreme-leader/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/28/engineered-elections-iran-to-vote-on-assembly-of-experts-that-may-elect-next-supreme-leader/#respond Wed, 28 Feb 2024 09:59:01 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=b7340524f606a5394a97fdf636338159
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/28/engineered-elections-iran-to-vote-on-assembly-of-experts-that-may-elect-next-supreme-leader/feed/ 0 461027
    After 18 Months Of Detention, Jailed Iranian Rapper Asks To Be Executed https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/27/after-18-months-of-detention-jailed-iranian-rapper-asks-to-be-executed/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/27/after-18-months-of-detention-jailed-iranian-rapper-asks-to-be-executed/#respond Tue, 27 Feb 2024 15:22:05 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-rapper-detention-take-my-life/32837507.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

    The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

    Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

    Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

    Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

    Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

    Lebanon's Hizballah

    Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

    The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

    Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

    Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

    "Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

    Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

    The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

    Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

    He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

    Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

    Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

    Hamas

    Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

    Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

    Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

    For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

    But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

    Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

    "[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

    After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

    Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

    Palestinian Islamic Jihad

    With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

    Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

    The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    "Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

    Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

    Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

    Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

    But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

    "The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

    Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

    Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

    Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

    "It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

    Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

    The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

    Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

    Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

    "The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

    The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

    When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

    Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

    Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

    "The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

    "They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

    The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

    Yemen's Huthi Rebels

    The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

    In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

    With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

    The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

    "The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

    Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

    In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/27/after-18-months-of-detention-jailed-iranian-rapper-asks-to-be-executed/feed/ 0 461107
    Scores Of Prominent Iranians Call For Boycott Of ‘Staged’ Elections https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/26/scores-of-prominent-iranians-call-for-boycott-of-staged-elections/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/26/scores-of-prominent-iranians-call-for-boycott-of-staged-elections/#respond Mon, 26 Feb 2024 16:43:32 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-public-figures-election-boycott/32836029.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

    The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

    Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

    Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

    Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

    Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

    Lebanon's Hizballah

    Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

    The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

    Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

    Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

    "Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

    Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

    The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

    Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

    He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

    Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

    Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

    Hamas

    Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

    Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

    Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

    For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

    But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

    Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

    "[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

    After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

    Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

    Palestinian Islamic Jihad

    With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

    Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

    The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    "Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

    Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

    Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

    Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

    But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

    "The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

    Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

    Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

    Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

    "It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

    Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

    The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

    Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

    Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

    "The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

    The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

    When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

    Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

    Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

    "The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

    "They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

    The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

    Yemen's Huthi Rebels

    The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

    In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

    With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

    The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

    "The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

    Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

    In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/26/scores-of-prominent-iranians-call-for-boycott-of-staged-elections/feed/ 0 460803
    Iranian Labor Council Says State-Worker Wage Discussions Sidelined ‘More Than Ever’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/25/iranian-labor-council-says-state-worker-wage-discussions-sidelined-more-than-ever/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/25/iranian-labor-council-says-state-worker-wage-discussions-sidelined-more-than-ever/#respond Sun, 25 Feb 2024 13:20:32 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-labor-council-wage-talks-sidelined/32834490.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

    The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

    Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

    Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

    Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

    Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

    Lebanon's Hizballah

    Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

    The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

    Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

    Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

    "Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

    Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

    The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

    Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

    He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

    Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

    Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

    Hamas

    Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

    Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

    Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

    For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

    But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

    Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

    "[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

    After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

    Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

    Palestinian Islamic Jihad

    With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

    Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

    The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    "Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

    Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

    Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

    Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

    But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

    "The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

    Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

    Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

    Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

    "It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

    Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

    The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

    Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

    Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

    "The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

    The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

    When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

    Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

    Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

    "The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

    "They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

    The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

    Yemen's Huthi Rebels

    The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

    In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

    With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

    The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

    "The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

    Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

    In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/25/iranian-labor-council-says-state-worker-wage-discussions-sidelined-more-than-ever/feed/ 0 460611
    Imprisoned Nobel Laureate Mohammadi Urges Boycott, Sanctions, Condemnation Of Iran Elections https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/24/imprisoned-nobel-laureate-mohammadi-urges-boycott-sanctions-condemnation-of-iran-elections/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/24/imprisoned-nobel-laureate-mohammadi-urges-boycott-sanctions-condemnation-of-iran-elections/#respond Sat, 24 Feb 2024 13:39:03 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/imprisoned-nobel-laureate-mohammadi-urges-boycott-iran-elections/32833582.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

    The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

    Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

    Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

    Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

    Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

    Lebanon's Hizballah

    Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

    The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

    Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

    Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

    "Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

    Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

    The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

    Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

    He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

    Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

    Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

    Hamas

    Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

    Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

    Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

    For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

    But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

    Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

    "[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

    After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

    Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

    Palestinian Islamic Jihad

    With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

    Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

    The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    "Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

    Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

    Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

    Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

    But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

    "The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

    Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

    Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

    Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

    "It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

    Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

    The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

    Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

    Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

    "The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

    The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

    When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

    Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

    Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

    "The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

    "They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

    The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

    Yemen's Huthi Rebels

    The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

    In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

    With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

    The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

    "The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

    Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

    In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/24/imprisoned-nobel-laureate-mohammadi-urges-boycott-sanctions-condemnation-of-iran-elections/feed/ 0 460492
    Iran Tries To Tighten Grip On Internet By Officially Outlawing VPN Use https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/23/iran-tries-to-tighten-grip-on-internet-by-officially-outlawing-vpn-use/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/23/iran-tries-to-tighten-grip-on-internet-by-officially-outlawing-vpn-use/#respond Fri, 23 Feb 2024 15:27:04 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-vpn-banned-internet-restrictions/32832544.html NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says NATO allies are committed to doing more to ensure that Ukraine "prevails" in its battle to repel invading Russian forces, with the alliance having "significantly changed" its stance on providing more advanced weapons to Kyiv.

    Speaking in an interview with RFE/RL to mark the second anniversary of Russia launching its full-scale invasion of its neighbor, the NATO chief said solidarity with Ukraine was not only correct, it's also "in our own security interests."

    "We can expect that the NATO allies will do more to ensure that Ukraine prevails, because this has been so clearly stated by NATO allies," Stoltenberg said.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    "I always stress that this is not charity. This is an investment in our own security and and that our support makes a difference on the battlefield every day," he added.

    Ukraine is in desperate need of financial and military assistance amid signs of political fatigue in the West as the war kicked off by Russia's unprovoked invasion nears the two-year mark on February 24.

    In excerpts from the interview released earlier in the week, Stoltenberg said the death of Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny and the first Russian gains on the battlefield in months should help focus the attention of NATO and its allies on the urgent need to support Ukraine.

    The death of Navalny in an Arctic prison on February 16 under suspicious circumstances -- authorities say it will be another two weeks before the body may be released to the family -- adds to the need to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin's authoritarian rule does not go unchecked.

    "I strongly believe that the best way to honor the memory of Aleksei Navalny is to ensure that President Putin doesn't win on the battlefield, but that Ukraine prevails," Stoltenberg said.

    Stoltenberg said the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the city of Avdiyivka last week after months of intense fighting demonstrated the need for more military aid, "to ensure that Russia doesn't make further gains."

    "We don't believe that the fact that the Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Avdiyivka in in itself will significantly change the strategic situation," he said.

    "But it reminds us of that Russia is willing to sacrifice a lot of soldiers. It also just makes minor territorial gains and also that Russia has received significant military support supplies from Iran, from North Korea and have been able to ramp up their own production."

    Ukraine's allies have been focused on a $61 billion U.S. military aid package, but while that remains stalled in the House of Representatives, other countries, including Sweden, Canada, and Japan, have stepped up their aid.

    "Of course, we are focused on the United States, but we also see how other allies are really stepping up and delivering significant support to Ukraine," Stoltenberg said in the interview.

    On the question of when Ukraine will be able to deploy F-16 fighter jets, Stoltenberg said it was not possible to say. He reiterated that Ukraine's allies all want them to be there as early as possible but said the effect of the F-16s will be stronger if pilots are well trained and maintenance crews and other support personnel are well-prepared.

    "So, I think we have to listen to the military experts exactly when we will be ready to or when allies will be ready to start sending and to delivering the F-16s," he said. "The sooner the better."

    Ukraine has actively sought U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to help it counter Russian air superiority. The United States in August approved sending F-16s to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands as soon as pilot training is completed.

    It will be up to each ally to decide whether to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, and allies have different policies, Stoltenberg said. But at the same time the war in Ukraine is a war of aggression, and Ukraine has the right to self-defense, including striking legitimate Russian military targets outside Ukraine.

    Asked about the prospect of former President Donald Trump returning to the White House, Stoltenberg said that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. elections this year, the United States will remain a committed NATO ally because it is in the security interest of the United States.

    Trump, the current front-runner in the race to become the Republican Party's presidential nominee, drew sharp rebukes from President Joe Biden, European leaders, and NATO after suggesting at a campaign rally on February 10 that the United States might not defend alliance members from a potential Russian invasion if they don’t pay enough toward their own defense.

    Stoltenberg said the United States was safer and stronger together with more than 30 allies -- something that neither China nor Russia has.

    The criticism of NATO has been aimed at allies underspending on defense, he said.

    But Stoltenberg said new data shows that more and more NATO allies are meeting the target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense, and this demonstrates that the alliance has come a long way since it pledged in 2014 to meet the target.

    At that time three members of NATO spent 2 percent of GDP on defense. Now it’s 18, he said.

    "If you add together what all European allies do and compare that to the GDP in total in Europe, it's actually 2 percent today," he said. "That's good, but it's not enough because we want [each NATO member] to spend 2 percent. And we also make sure that 2 percent is a minimum."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Why Iran Is Unlikely To Attack U.S., Israeli Targets https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/22/why-iran-is-unlikely-to-attack-u-s-israeli-targets-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/22/why-iran-is-unlikely-to-attack-u-s-israeli-targets-2/#respond Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:06:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1ba95879776e29b6693c25b710725366
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/22/why-iran-is-unlikely-to-attack-u-s-israeli-targets-2/feed/ 0 460003
    Why Iran Is Unlikely To Attack U.S., Israeli Targets https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/21/why-iran-is-unlikely-to-attack-u-s-israeli-targets/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/21/why-iran-is-unlikely-to-attack-u-s-israeli-targets/#respond Wed, 21 Feb 2024 14:55:04 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=91032ee72ffc57d584afcc083d178ccf
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Czechs Extradite Suspect In Iran-Backed Murder Plot To United States https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/21/czechs-extradite-suspect-in-iran-backed-murder-plot-to-united-states/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/21/czechs-extradite-suspect-in-iran-backed-murder-plot-to-united-states/#respond Wed, 21 Feb 2024 11:37:48 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-extraditioni-iran-murder-plot-united-states/32829112.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

    The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

    Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

    Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

    Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

    Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

    Lebanon's Hizballah

    Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

    The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

    Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

    Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
    A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

    "Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

    Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

    The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

    Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

    He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

    Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

    Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

    Hamas

    Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

    Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

    Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

    For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

    But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

    Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

    "[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

    After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

    Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

    Palestinian Islamic Jihad

    With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

    Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

    The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

    "Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

    Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

    Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

    Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

    But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

    "The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

    Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

    Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

    Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

    "It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

    Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

    The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

    Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

    Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

    "The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

    The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

    When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
    Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

    Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

    Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

    "The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

    "They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

    The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

    The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

    Yemen's Huthi Rebels

    The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

    In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

    With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
    A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

    The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

    "The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

    Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

    In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    U.S. Conducts Five Strikes In Huthi-Controlled Areas Of Yemen, Military Says https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/18/u-s-conducts-five-strikes-in-huthi-controlled-areas-of-yemen-military-says/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/18/u-s-conducts-five-strikes-in-huthi-controlled-areas-of-yemen-military-says/#respond Sun, 18 Feb 2024 20:58:44 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/yemen-iran-huthis-us-strikes/32824879.html Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the front-runner to be the next secretary-general of NATO, has said EU countries are "working with our partners all over the globe" to meet Ukraine's military needs, especially supplying Kyiv with ammunition and air-defense systems.

    "I was just speaking with [Ukrainian President] Volodymyr Zelenskiy and I think these are the two main priorities," Rutte said in an interview with RFE/RL on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 17.

    Addressing the global security conference earlier, Zelenskiy urged allies to plug an "artificial" shortage of weapons that is giving Russian forces the upper hand on the battlefield and said stalled U.S. aid was crucial.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    Ukraine faces acute shortages of ammunition and U.S. military aid has been delayed for months in Congress.

    "Unfortunately, keeping Ukraine in an artificial deficit of weapons, particularly in deficit of artillery and long-range capabilities, allows [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war," Zelenskiy said.

    Asked about the delayed U.S. aid after a bilateral meeting with Zelenskiy, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, denounced "political gamesmanship" in Congress that has no place in such matters.

    Republicans have insisted for months that any additional U.S. aid to Ukraine, and Israel, must also address concerns about border security.

    Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has said he would ask European allies to reimburse the United States for around $200 billion worth of munitions sent to Ukraine.

    "We should stop moaning and whining and nagging about Trump," Rutte told the security gathering on February 17. "We do not spend more on defense or ramp up ammunitions production because Trump might come back."

    Talk of a potential European nuclear deterrent that would not involve the United States is "not helpful," he told the conference. And it "would only undermine NATO in a time when we really need credible deterrence."

    Speaking to RFE/RL, Rutte, who unexpectedly announced his departure from Dutch politics in July, said he was "cautiously optimistic" that U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be delivered soon.

    Rutte said any delays by EU countries to deliver weapon supplies to Ukraine was due to the fact that they, along with Ukraine, "are all democracies."

    "And sometimes these issues take a bit of time…. And now I know that there are still new discussions on new weapons systems. I think decisions can be made fairly soon," Rutte explained.

    Rutte also said Dutch plans to transfer to Ukraine U.S.-made F-16 fighter were "basically on schedule."

    "We hope to transfer them as soon as possible. Twenty-four of them, maybe more, but at least 24. We are working together with the Danes and others. So, things are progressing now," Rutte told RFE/RL.

    Asked about alleged signals from the Kremlin that Russia could be ready for talks with Ukraine, Rutte said that decision rested solely with Kyiv.

    "There's only one person who can ever decide to enter into peace negotiations with Russia. And that man is still the legally elected president of Ukraine," Rutte said, referring to Zelenskiy.

    "And what we're doing at this moment is to help him to make sure all your brave men and women in Ukraine, the military and all the citizens, [are able] to free that country from the Russians. And the only one, again, who can decide on peace negotiations is Zelenskiy. Nobody else," Rutte added.

    Rutte also commented on the death of Aleksei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who died at a remote Arctic prison on February 16.

    Navalny's spokeswoman confirmed on February 17 that Navalny had died and said he was "murdered," but it was unclear where his body was as his family and friends searched for answers.

    "Aleksei Navalny is one person so brave, so enormous, impressive as he was, that this one person was a threat to the Russian state. That means how weak they are and how insecure they are about our own role and position," Rutte said.

    Navalny's death at age 47 has deprived the Russian opposition of its most well-known and inspiring politician less than a month before an election that will give Putin another six years in power.

    Asked whether Russia and Putin, whom Western leaders have blamed for Navalny's death, could face further Western sanctions, Rutte was not hopeful.

    "I don't think it will in itself lead to extra sanctions," Rutte said, noting the EU was already preparing a 13th package of sanctions against Russia that it hopes to pass by February 24.

    "New sanctions packages are important, but making sure that we close the loopholes in the existing packages is also important," Rutte said.

    Rutte has emerged as a leading candidate to succeed NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, who plans to step down in October after 10 years at the helm.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Several More Baha’is Jailed In Iran As Crackdown Continues https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/17/several-more-bahais-jailed-in-iran-as-crackdown-continues/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/17/several-more-bahais-jailed-in-iran-as-crackdown-continues/#respond Sat, 17 Feb 2024 13:36:44 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-bahais-arrests-prison/32823824.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/17/several-more-bahais-jailed-in-iran-as-crackdown-continues/feed/ 0 459347
    Man Kills 12 Relatives In Southeastern Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/17/man-kills-12-relatives-in-southeastern-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/17/man-kills-12-relatives-in-southeastern-iran/#respond Sat, 17 Feb 2024 10:20:14 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-family-shooting/32823686.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/17/man-kills-12-relatives-in-southeastern-iran/feed/ 0 459393
    U.S. Slaps Sanctions On Subsidiary Of Central Bank of Iran, Other Entities And Individuals https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/14/u-s-slaps-sanctions-on-subsidiary-of-central-bank-of-iran-other-entities-and-individuals/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/14/u-s-slaps-sanctions-on-subsidiary-of-central-bank-of-iran-other-entities-and-individuals/#respond Wed, 14 Feb 2024 20:37:32 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-central-bank-us-sanctions/32819929.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/14/u-s-slaps-sanctions-on-subsidiary-of-central-bank-of-iran-other-entities-and-individuals/feed/ 0 458749
    Two Explosions Rock Iranian Gas Pipelines, Disrupt Supplies https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/14/two-explosions-rock-iranian-gas-pipelines-disrupt-supplies/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/14/two-explosions-rock-iranian-gas-pipelines-disrupt-supplies/#respond Wed, 14 Feb 2024 16:41:26 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-explosions-gas-pipelines-supplies-disrupted/32819737.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/14/two-explosions-rock-iranian-gas-pipelines-disrupt-supplies/feed/ 0 458829
    4 Baluchis Sentenced To Death In Iran For Alleged Insurrection https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/13/4-baluchis-sentenced-to-death-in-iran-for-alleged-insurrection/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/13/4-baluchis-sentenced-to-death-in-iran-for-alleged-insurrection/#respond Tue, 13 Feb 2024 19:16:46 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-baluchis-death-sentences-insurrection--shahbakhsh/32818335.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/13/4-baluchis-sentenced-to-death-in-iran-for-alleged-insurrection/feed/ 0 458552
    Lawyer For Executed Iranian Protester Summoned To Court After Critical Remarks https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/13/lawyer-for-executed-iranian-protester-summoned-to-court-after-critical-remarks/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/13/lawyer-for-executed-iranian-protester-summoned-to-court-after-critical-remarks/#respond Tue, 13 Feb 2024 16:23:09 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-executed-qobadlou-lawyer-summoned-damghanpor-court/32818181.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/13/lawyer-for-executed-iranian-protester-summoned-to-court-after-critical-remarks/feed/ 0 458653
    Iran Marks 45th Anniversary Of Islamic Revolution As Tensions Grip Wider Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/11/iran-marks-45th-anniversary-of-islamic-revolution-as-tensions-grip-wider-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/11/iran-marks-45th-anniversary-of-islamic-revolution-as-tensions-grip-wider-middle-east/#respond Sun, 11 Feb 2024 09:00:33 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-45-anniversary-islamic-revolution/32814233.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/11/iran-marks-45th-anniversary-of-islamic-revolution-as-tensions-grip-wider-middle-east/feed/ 0 458265
    Iranian Prisoner Has 4 Fingers Amputated For Theft Charge He Denies https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/10/iranian-prisoner-has-4-fingers-amputated-for-theft-charge-he-denies/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/10/iranian-prisoner-has-4-fingers-amputated-for-theft-charge-he-denies/#respond Sat, 10 Feb 2024 10:30:03 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-prisoner-fingers-amputated-human-rights/32813473.html Like two heavyweight boxers, the United States and Iran circle the ring -- flexing their muscles without stepping close enough to actually trade blows. It is clear that neither wants to fight, but they also have no interest in settling their stark differences.

    That is how experts say Washington and Tehran have dealt with each other for more than four decades, only changing their stance when it is mutually beneficial.

    Tensions have soared between the two foes, who have no formal diplomatic ties, amid the fallout from Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip. But despite calls for de-escalation, observers say there is little room for détente.

    "I've rarely seen a situation in which the tensions have been so high and the exit ramps are nearly nonexistent and there were no real channels of communication between the two sides," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

    “And that makes the current situation even more dangerous, because there's plenty of space for miscommunication and misunderstanding," Vaez added.

    Current tensions in the Middle East have had deadly consequences even as each side tries to avoid getting drawn into a direct military confrontation.

    The United States has hit Iran-backed militants in response to attacks against U.S. forces and interests in the region, including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last month, while underscoring that its aim is de-escalation.

    Iran, which like the United States has said that it does not want war, has continued to back militant groups that make up its so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, while calling for diplomacy to resolve the crisis.

    Tehran and Washington have carefully avoided direct conflict, but are in no position to work out their differences even if they wanted to, experts say.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leaving them to negotiate through back-channels or third states when needed.

    But political and ideological pressures at home -- amplified ahead of a parliamentary vote in Iran in March and a presidential election in the United States in November -- has meant that neither side is looking to back away any time soon from the stark red lines the two have drawn.

    Avenues For Diplomacy

    "There are ways that communication can be had between the two countries, and they do so,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the U.S.-based Middle East Institute. “But they tend to do it on select files, or moments of crisis."

    Vatanka said those lines of communication include Iran’s envoy to the United Nations who resides in New York and the Swiss Embassy in Tehran which handles American interests in the Islamic republic. There are also third-party mediators, including Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, he said.

    The U.S.-Iran prisoner swap worked out in September, which followed years of secret negotiations involving Gulf states and Switzerland, is the most recent example.

    Under that deal, four Americans held hostage in Iran were released in exchange for Washington unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held up in South Korea.

    As part of the agreement, according to Vaez, "Iran committed to rein in groups that were targeting U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria" and Washington received a commitment that Tehran would not supply ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Moscow's war against Ukraine.

    Shortly after Iran-backed Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, carried out its deadly assault on Israel on October 7, the unfrozen Iranian funds came under intense scrutiny. Republicans in the United States who are gearing up for the presidential election in November have been particularly vocal in criticizing the deal worked out by the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

    In response, Washington worked out an agreement with Qatar, where the unfrozen Iranian funds were moved and to be released only for humanitarian purposes, to prevent Tehran from accessing them at all. But the deal has remained a hot-button issue.

    The Gaza war and the ensuing resumption of attacks on U.S. forces and interests by Iran-backed groups have attracted even more political discord.

    After Israel's large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, Iran-backed militant groups have carried out attacks in solidarity with Hamas. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have targeted maritime shipping and U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan in a drone attack.

    That, in turn, has led to U.S. and U.K. attacks on Huthi targets in Yemen, and by the United States against Iran-backed militias and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq.

    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.
    U.S. forces launch strikes against Huthi targets in Yemen earlier this month.

    Iran, for its part, has said that the axis of resistance, which it denies directing, would continue to carry out strikes until a permanent cease-fire is worked out to stop what it calls a genocide in Gaza. And in what was widely seen as a show of its capability to strike back in the event Iran itself is attacked, it has launched ballistic missile strikes against "enemy" targets in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, the latter of which showcased that Israel was within striking distance.

    The recent spike in violence came after the United States had experienced "the longest period of quiet in the Middle East" from March until the Hamas assault on October 7, Vaez said.

    That relative peace came about not because of displays of power, but because Iran and the United States were negotiating, Vaez said.

    "It wasn't because the U.S. had flexed its military muscle and deterred Iran, it was because it was engaged in diplomatic understandings with Iran that came to fruition and culminated in a detainee deal," Vaez said.

    Tehran and the United States, currently trading threats of ever-stronger responses, "are seeking to pressure each other into greater flexibility," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Both would like to get back to the truce they enjoyed prior to the October 7 attacks" by Hamas against Israel, Parsi said in written comments. "But whether the political will is available for real de-escalation remains unclear."

    "President Biden has been unmovable in his opposition to a cease-fire in Gaza thus far," Parsi said, referring to mounting calls for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. "And without such a cease-fire, real de-escalation remains very unlikely."

    Military Message

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 6, halfway through his latest trip to the Middle East to reduce regional tensions, that a proposal for a temporary cease-fire put together with the help of Qatar and Egypt and presented to Hamas and Israel, was "possible and, indeed, essential."

    While details of the proposal have not been made public, Blinken said that the goal is to use any pause in fighting to address humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza and "to continue to pave a diplomatic path forward to a just and lasting peace and security for the region."

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East
    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards his plane at an airport near Tel Aviv on February 8, during his trip to the Middle East

    Asked by RFE/RL whether Washington is employing any diplomatic means, either directly or indirectly, to decrease tensions with Iran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pointed to recent strikes carried out against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

    "Our military response to the killing of three U.S. service members by Iran-aligned militia groups and our continued action to degrade the Huthis’ ability to threaten international shipping sends the clearest message of all: the United States will defend our personnel and our interests," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in written comments on February 7.

    "When we are attacked, we will respond strongly, and we will respond at a time and place of our choosing," the spokesman said.

    Prior to the deadly attack on the U.S. base in Jordan, there had been reports of Washington using third states to send a nonmilitary notice to Iran.

    Shortly after the Hamas assault on Israel in October, the U.S. Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said that a congressional delegation to China had asked Beijing to exert its influence with Tehran to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading.

    In early January, the Lebanese news publication Al-Ahed News quoted Iran's ambassador to Syria as saying that a delegation from an unidentified Gulf state had carried a message from the United States seeking to reduce the risk of an expanded regional conflict.

    The U.S. State Department spokesperson said that beyond the recent U.S. strikes, "our message to Iran, in public and in private, has been a singular one: cease your support for terrorist groups and militant proxies and partners."

    Washington welcomes "any efforts by other countries to play a constructive role in trying to prevent these Iran-enabled attacks from taking place," the spokesperson added, but referred to White House national-security spokesman John Kirby's February 6 comment that "I know of no private messaging to Iran since the death of our soldiers in Jordan over a week ago.”

    Lack Of Vision

    The limits of diplomacy between the United States and Iran, according to Vatanka, "is not a lack of the ability to communicate, the problem is a lack of vision" to repair relations.

    For political reasons and for a long time, Vantanka added, neither side has been interested in mending the bad blood that has existed between the two countries going back to 1979.

    "Right now, the White House cannot afford to talk to Iran at a time when so many of Biden's critics are saying he's too soft on the Iranian regime," Vatanka said. "On the other hand, you've got an Iranian supreme leader who is 84 years old. He's really keen on two things: not to have a war with the Americans, because he doesn't think that's going to go well for Iran or his regime. But at the same time, he doesn't want to see the Americans return to Tehran anytime soon. Certainly not when he's alive."

    This, Vatanka explained, is because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini "does not think the Americans want anything other than the fundamental objective of bringing about the end of the Islamic republic."

    The other major voice in Iranian foreign policy -- the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- also see anti-Americanism as a worthwhile instrument to further their ideological and political aims at home and abroad, according to Vatanka.

    "They think anti-Americanism is the ticket to mobilize the Islamic world around their flag and around their leadership," Vatanka said.

    More moderate voices when it comes to Iran's foreign policy, Vatanka said, are labeled as traitors and weak and “are today essentially marginalized."


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/10/iranian-prisoner-has-4-fingers-amputated-for-theft-charge-he-denies/feed/ 0 458319
    Iranian Retailer Digikala Charged Over Mugs Prosecutor Says ‘Insult’ Islam https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/09/iranian-retailer-digikala-charged-over-mugs-prosecutor-says-insult-islam/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/09/iranian-retailer-digikala-charged-over-mugs-prosecutor-says-insult-islam/#respond Fri, 09 Feb 2024 12:44:09 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-digikala-charged-mugs-insult-islam/32812382.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/09/iranian-retailer-digikala-charged-over-mugs-prosecutor-says-insult-islam/feed/ 0 457969
    Iranian Man Wielding Weapons Killed By Police After Seizing Hostages On Swiss Train https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/09/iranian-man-wielding-weapons-killed-by-police-after-seizing-hostages-on-swiss-train/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/09/iranian-man-wielding-weapons-killed-by-police-after-seizing-hostages-on-swiss-train/#respond Fri, 09 Feb 2024 09:14:06 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iranian-man-seizes-hostages-swiss-train/32812067.html President Vladimir Putin's interview with Tucker Carlson, a U.S. commentator who has made a name for himself by spreading conspiracy theories and has questioned Washington's support for Kyiv in its fight against invading Russian troops, has been widely criticized for giving the Russian leader a propaganda platform in his first interview with an American journalist since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.

    In the more than two-hour interview, released on Carlson’s website early on February 9, Putin again claimed Ukraine was a threat to Russia because the West was drawing the country into NATO -- an assertion the military alliance has called false -- while avoiding topics such as his brutal crackdown at home on civil society and free speech.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    The interview took place as Putin hopes that Western support for Kyiv will wane and morale among Ukrainians will flag to the point where his war aims are achievable. It also comes as U.S. military support for Kyiv is in question as Republican lawmakers block a $60 billion aid package proposed by President Joe Biden, and a reshuffle of Ukraine's dismissal of the top commander of the armed forces after a counteroffensive fell far short of its goals.

    Putin urged the United States to press Kyiv to stop fighting and cut a deal with Russia, which occupies about one-fifth of Ukraine.

    Carlson rarely challenged Putin, who gave a long and rambling lecture on the history of Russia and Ukraine, failing to bring up credible accusations from international rights groups that Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine -- Putin himself has been issued an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for the unlawful deportation and transfer of children during the conflict -- or the imprisonment of opposition figures such as Aleksei Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza on trumped up charges that appear politically motivated.

    "Putin got his message out the way he wanted to," said Ian Bremmer, a New York-based political scientist and president of Eurasiagroup.

    Even before the meeting was published, Carlson faced criticism for interviewing Putin when his government is holding Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich and another U.S. journalist, Alsu Kurmasheva of RFE/RL, in jail on charges related to their reporting that both vehemently deny.

    Kurmasheva's case was not even mentioned in the interview, while Carlson angered the Wall Street Journal by suggesting that Putin should release the 33-year-old journalist even if “maybe he was breaking your law in some way.”

    The U.S. State Department has officially designated Gershkovich as wrongfully detained by Russia.

    “Evan is a journalist and journalism is not a crime. Any portrayal to the contrary is total fiction,” the newspaper said in reaction to the interview.

    “Evan was unjustly arrested and has been wrongfully detained by Russia for nearly a year for doing his job, and we continue to demand his immediate release.”

    Putin said “an agreement can be reached” to free Gershkovich and appeared to suggest that a swap for a “patriotic” Russian national currently serving out a life sentence for murder in Germany -- an apparent reference to Vadim Krasikov, a former colonel from Russia’s domestic spy organization convicted of assassinating a former Chechen fighter in broad daylight in Berlin in 2019.

    "There is no taboo to settle this issue. We are willing to solve it, but there are certain terms being discussed via special services channels. I believe an agreement can be reached," Putin told Carlson.

    Carlson, a former Fox News host, has made a name for himself by spreading conspiracy theories and has questioned U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian troops. The interview was Putin's first with a Western media figure since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Putin said during the interview Russia has no interest in invading NATO member Poland and could only see one case where he would: "If Poland attacks Russia."

    "We have no interest in Poland, Latvia, or anywhere else. Why would we do that? We simply don't have any interest. It's just threat mongering. It is absolutely out of the question," he added.

    Describing his decision to interview Putin in an announcement posted on X on February 6, Carlson asserted that U.S. media outlets focus fawningly on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy but that Putin’s voice is not heard in the United States because Western journalists have not “bothered” to interview him since the full-scale invasion.

    Carlson has gained a reputation for defending the Russian leader, once claiming that "hating Putin has become the central purpose of America's foreign policy."

    Numerous Western journalists rejected the claim, saying they have consistently sought to interview Putin but have been turned away. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later confirmed that, saying his office receives “numerous requests for interviews with the president” but that most of the Western outlets asking are “traditional TV channels and large newspapers that don’t even attempt to appear impartial in their coverage. Of course, there’s no desire to communicate with this kind of media.”

    Carlson’s credentials as an independent journalist have been questioned, and in 2020 Fox News won a defamation case against him, with the judge saying in her verdict that when presenting stories, Carlson is not "stating actual facts" about the topics he discusses and is instead engaging in "exaggeration" and "'nonliteral commentary."

    Carlson was one of Fox News' top-rated hosts before he abruptly left the network last year after Fox settled a separate defamation lawsuit over its reporting of the 2020 presidential election. Fox agreed to pay $787 million to voting machine company Dominion after the company filed a lawsuit alleging the network spread false claims that its machines were rigged against former President Donald Trump.

    Carlson has had a rocky relationship at times with the former president, but during Trump's presidency he had Carlson's full backing and he has endorsed Trump in his 2024 run to regain the White House.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/09/iranian-man-wielding-weapons-killed-by-police-after-seizing-hostages-on-swiss-train/feed/ 0 458028
    Meta Bans Accounts Of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Likely For Pro-Hamas Posts https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/08/meta-bans-accounts-of-irans-supreme-leader-likely-for-pro-hamas-posts/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/08/meta-bans-accounts-of-irans-supreme-leader-likely-for-pro-hamas-posts/#respond Thu, 08 Feb 2024 15:41:23 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-meta-khamenei-accounts-banned-instagram-facebook/32811057.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/08/meta-bans-accounts-of-irans-supreme-leader-likely-for-pro-hamas-posts/feed/ 0 457634
    More Iranian Students Barred From Studies Over Protest Activities As Crackdown Continues https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/08/more-iranian-students-barred-from-studies-over-protest-activities-as-crackdown-continues/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/08/more-iranian-students-barred-from-studies-over-protest-activities-as-crackdown-continues/#respond Thu, 08 Feb 2024 09:18:29 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-students-barred-studies-protest-crackdown-soore/32810340.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/08/more-iranian-students-barred-from-studies-over-protest-activities-as-crackdown-continues/feed/ 0 457805
    Deal With Iran Politically and Diplomatically, Not Militarily https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/07/deal-with-iran-politically-and-diplomatically-not-militarily/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/07/deal-with-iran-politically-and-diplomatically-not-militarily/#respond Wed, 07 Feb 2024 07:01:40 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=312647 The U.S. attack on Iran’s military and affiliated militias in Iraq and Syria as well as the attacks against the Houthis in Yemen raise serious questions.  We are told that U.S. forces are in Iraq and Syria to combat the forces of ISIS, which happen to be a leading enemy of Iran. Last month, the U.S. even warned Tehran about an ISIS attack in Iran that killed nearly 100 Iranians.  This fact suggests that the United States and Iran have something in common in the region, at least regarding the ISIS threat, and that they should be engaged in bilateral or back-channel discussions.  U.S. non-recognition of Iran continues to be an obstacle to talks and should be reconsidered.  More

    The post Deal With Iran Politically and Diplomatically, Not Militarily appeared first on CounterPunch.org.

    ]]>

    Photograph Source: United States Department of State – Public Domain

    There is a consensus on the right and the left that the only way to deal with Iran is with military force.  The conservative Chicken Hawks in the Senate and the House of Representatives believe targeting Iran—and not merely Iranian proxies—is essential.  Senator Lindsay Graham (R/SC) wants to “hit them hard.” The conservative newsmagazine, The Economist, believes that the United States could form a political alliance with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States to isolate Iran.  

    Authoritative pundits such as Thomas Friedman of the New York Times, and David Ignatius of the Washington Post favor deterring Iran militarily as well as a “robust” military retaliation against Iran’s proxies.  Both fully support the U.S. military attacks now taking place in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.  Ignatius even credits the Biden administration’s recent sanctioning of four violent Israeli settlers on the West Bank as a “strong step” that will enhance U.S. credibility as a peace broker for a Palestinian state.  This so-called “strong step” has been ridiculed throughout the Arab world. 

    The U.S. attack on Iran’s military and affiliated militias in Iraq and Syria as well as the attacks against the Houthis in Yemen raise serious questions.  We are told that U.S. forces are in Iraq and Syria to combat the forces of ISIS, which happen to be a leading enemy of Iran. Last month, the U.S. even warned Tehran about an ISIS attack in Iran that killed nearly 100 Iranians.  This fact suggests that the United States and Iran have something in common in the region, at least regarding the ISIS threat, and that they should be engaged in bilateral or back-channel discussions.  U.S. non-recognition of Iran continues to be an obstacle to talks and should be reconsidered. 

    We must also reconsider our troop deployments in the Middle East that are vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed militia groups.  At the very least, we should remove our small force deployments from both Iraq and Syria.  The United States cannot deter attacks on these facilities, and our troops there are primarily occupied with force protection. 

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken was ill-advised to ignore his diplomatic hat in order to doff a military cap, promising U.S. military attacks that would be “multileveled, come in stages, and be sustained over time.”  This language should not be coming from the nation’s leading diplomat; this is Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s bailiwick.  The Department of State should be grappling with the diplomatic possibilities that exist in the region.  The first priority should be a cease fire, particularly in view of the fact that Israeli Defense Forces have killed more than 11,500 children in Gaza.  Not even the warnings from the International Court of Justice have altered the IDF’s brutal tactics.

    While the United States maintains the vilification of Iran that reached new levels in the Trump administration, the Gulf states have been pursuing rapprochement with Iran that has the United States on the outside looking in.  In addition to China’s brokering of the Saudi-Iranian accord in 2023 that led to restoration of diplomatic relations, there have been a series of actions by Gulf states to improve relations with Iran.  In 2022, Abu Dhabi restored ties with Iran.   If these erstwhile adversaries of Iran can begin a dialogue, then perhaps the United States should be able to do so as well.

    Continued Israeli bombardment in Gaza and U.S. attacks in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen threaten the signs of political stability that have taken place in the region over the past several years.  Beginning in 2020, which happened to be the year of the Abraham Accords between Israel and the Gulf states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, there have been signs of greater political accord in the region.  In 2021, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain ended their economic blockade of Qatar.  Syrian President Bashar al-Assad returned to the Arab League.  Saudi Arabia and the UAE reconciled with Turkey, ending the freeze that began in 2018 when the Saudis conducted the brutal killing of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.  Despite the brutal Israeli campaign in Gaza in the wake of the horrific October 7th events, the Gulf states, somewhat surprisingly, have not weakened relations with Israel.

    The Gaza War and the current U.S. military attacks, however, will create greater political instability in the region.  The United States will come under increased criticism for supplying military weaponry to Israel; providing diplomatic cover for Israel at the United Nations; and showing insufficient regard for the fate of 2.2 million Gazans.  The Arab states in the region do not favor the U.S. escalation of force in the region, and certainly do not want a wider war with Iran. 

    The mainstream media seem particularly oblivious to the strategic trap that the United States has created for itself in the Middle East with its support for Israeli militarism.  Thomas Friedman of the New York Times believes the Biden administration is on the verge of proclaiming a Biden Doctrine for the region that would find a “strategic realignment” that would “coalesce around the U.S. stance on Iran, a Palestinian state, and Saudi Arabia.”  Secretary of State Blinken’s five unsuccessful trips to the Middle East suggest that there is no Biden doctrine and that Arabs aren’t even listening to the signals that we are sending.

    Friedman argues that Palestinian statehood should be “consistent with Israeli security,” which would not meet the demands of the Saudis and all other Arabs.  In any event, the Israeli government is opposed to a two-state solution under any circumstances.  Friedman also believes that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could be persuaded to leave Gaza for Qatar, just as Yasir Arafat left Lebanon in 1982 to go to Tunisia.  Very wishful thinking.

    Continued Israeli and U.S. use of force will create greater instability in the entire region; contribute to the diplomatic and political influence of Russia and China; and create a wider zone of conflict and crisis.  We fail to understand that the disastrous and deceitful invasion of Iraq two decades ago by the Bush administration opened the door to Iran’s influence in Iraq and led to weaker states in the region that also invited support from Iran.  

    The modest U.S. deployments in Iraq (2,500) and Syria (900) are too small to challenge or deter Iran, but large enough to serve as sitting ducks for attacks by Iranian proxies.  These deployments must be ended before more Americans are killed, which would lead to more U.S. bombardment.  The United States already has more than sufficient military power in the region at the huge U.S. bases in Bahrain and Qatar that should be able to handle any local military challenge.  The fact that the United States flew strategic bombers on a 12,000-mile round trip from bases in Texas to target Yemen, one of the world’s basket cases, seemed particularly incongruent unless we were trying to frighten Iran.

    Instead of trying to build an Arab alliance against Iran, the United States should be looking for ways to engage Iran both politically and diplomatically.  The Iranian nuclear accord, the Joint Comprehensive Action, provided a diplomatic opening  that led to conciliatory gestures on Iran’s side.  The cease fire that allowed the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners also witnessed a cease fire from Iran’s proxies in the region.  It is long past time to reduce the U.S. military presence in the region, which the Obama administration promised in 2011, and to play the diplomatic card.

    The post Deal With Iran Politically and Diplomatically, Not Militarily appeared first on CounterPunch.org.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Melvin Goodman.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/07/deal-with-iran-politically-and-diplomatically-not-militarily/feed/ 0 457276
    U.S. Forces Hit Another Huthi Target In Yemen, Hours After Attacking Dozens Of Others https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/04/u-s-forces-hit-another-huthi-target-in-yemen-hours-after-attacking-dozens-of-others/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/04/u-s-forces-hit-another-huthi-target-in-yemen-hours-after-attacking-dozens-of-others/#respond Sun, 04 Feb 2024 11:18:31 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-strikes-huthi-yemen-iran-red-sea/32804759.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/04/u-s-forces-hit-another-huthi-target-in-yemen-hours-after-attacking-dozens-of-others/feed/ 0 456807
    U.S. Assessing Strikes On Iran-Linked Targets In Iraq, Syria With More Likely To Come https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/03/u-s-assessing-strikes-on-iran-linked-targets-in-iraq-syria-with-more-likely-to-come/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/03/u-s-assessing-strikes-on-iran-linked-targets-in-iraq-syria-with-more-likely-to-come/#respond Sat, 03 Feb 2024 08:47:39 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-strikes-iran-targets-syria-iraq-/32803839.html

    U.S. officials have said they believe air strikes on dozens of Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Iraq late on February 2 in retaliation for the killing of three U.S. troops in northwest Jordan were successful and warned more strikes will follow, as Baghdad expressed anger and concerns persisted of widening conflict in the region.

    U.S. President Biden had warned of imminent action after a drone attack at a U.S. base in Jordan killed three U.S. service members on January 28.

    Washington blamed Iran and its supply of weapons to militia groups in the region.

    Reports said the U.S. strikes had hit seven locations, four in Syria and three in Iraq.

    “Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement released shortly after the attacks that "our response began today," adding, "It will continue at times and places of our choosing."

    “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond,” he added.

    General Yehia Rasool, a spokesman for Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani accused the United States of a "violation" of Iraqi sovereignty with potentially "disastrous consequences for the security and stability of Iraq and the region."

    After a previous U.S. air strike in Baghdad, Sudani asked for the 2,000 or so U.S. troops in Iraq to be withdrawn -- a sensitive bilateral topic.

    U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the United States "did inform the Iraqi government prior to the strikes" but did not provide details. He said the attacks lasted about 30 minutes and included B-1 bombers that had flown from the United States.

    Kirby said defense officials would be able to further assess the strikes' impact on February 3.

    The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, which has extensive contacts inside Syria, said at least 18 pro-Iran fighters had been killed in a strike near Al-Mayadeen in Syria.

    U.S. Central Command earlier confirmed the strikes, saying its forces "conducted air strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups."

    "U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States," it said, adding that it had struck "command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces."

    Syrian state media said there had been a number of casualties in several sites in Syria's desert areas along the border with Iraq.

    U.S. officials have said that the deadly January 28 attack in Jordan carried the "footprints" of Tehran-sponsored Kataib Hizballah militia in Iraq and vowed to hold those responsible to account at a time and place of Washington’s choosing, most likely in Syria or Iraq.

    On January 31, Kataib Hizballah extremists in Iraq announced a "suspension" of operations against U.S. forces. The group said the pause was meant to prevent "embarrassing" the Iraqi government and hinted that the drone attack had been linked to the U.S. support of Israel in the war in Gaza.

    Biden has been under pressure from opposition Republicans to take a harder line against Iran following the Jordan attack, but said earlier this week that "I don't think we need a wider war in the Middle East. That's not what I'm looking for."

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said Tehran "will not start any war, but if anyone wants to bully us, they will receive a strong response."

    Biden on February 2 witnessed the return to the United States of the remains of the three American soldiers killed in Jordan at a service at the Dover Air Force Base, Delaware.

    The clashes between U.S. forces and Iran-backed militia have come against the background of an intense four-month military campaign in Gaza Strip against the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group Hamas after a Hamas attack killed at least 1,200 people in Israel, most of them civilians.

    Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen have also waged attacks on international shipping in the region in what they call an effort to target Israeli vessels and demonstrate support for Palestinians.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to his fifth round of crisis talks in the region from February 3-8, with visits reportedly planned to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank in an effort to promote a release of hostages taken by Hamas in its brutal October 7 raids.

    With reporting by AFP, CNN, BBC, and AP


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/03/u-s-assessing-strikes-on-iran-linked-targets-in-iraq-syria-with-more-likely-to-come/feed/ 0 456675
    U.S. Launches Retaliatory Strikes On Iranian-Linked Sites In Syria, Iraq https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/02/u-s-launches-retaliatory-strikes-on-iranian-linked-sites-in-syria-iraq/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/02/u-s-launches-retaliatory-strikes-on-iranian-linked-sites-in-syria-iraq/#respond Fri, 02 Feb 2024 21:19:00 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-iran-strikes-syria-iraq/32803316.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/02/u-s-launches-retaliatory-strikes-on-iranian-linked-sites-in-syria-iraq/feed/ 0 456706
    Coalition Urges UN Rights Official To Delay Iran Visit Saying She Won’t See The ‘Truth’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/02/coalition-urges-un-rights-official-to-delay-iran-visit-saying-she-wont-see-the-truth/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/02/coalition-urges-un-rights-official-to-delay-iran-visit-saying-she-wont-see-the-truth/#respond Fri, 02 Feb 2024 06:20:46 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/coalition-urges-un-rights-official-delay-iran-visit-/32802277.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/02/coalition-urges-un-rights-official-to-delay-iran-visit-saying-she-wont-see-the-truth/feed/ 0 456425
    Flashpoint for War: The Drone Killings at Tower 22 https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/01/flashpoint-for-war-the-drone-killings-at-tower-22-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/01/flashpoint-for-war-the-drone-killings-at-tower-22-2/#respond Thu, 01 Feb 2024 15:07:34 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=147843 The BBC’s characteristically mild-mannered note said it all: What is Tower 22?  More to the point, what are US forces doing in Jordan?  (To be more precise, a dusty scratching on the Syria-Jordan border.)  These questions were posed in the aftermath of yet another drone attack against a US outpost in the Middle East, its […]

    The post Flashpoint for War: The Drone Killings at Tower 22 first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    The BBC’s characteristically mild-mannered note said it all: What is Tower 22?  More to the point, what are US forces doing in Jordan?  (To be more precise, a dusty scratching on the Syria-Jordan border.)  These questions were posed in the aftermath of yet another drone attack against a US outpost in the Middle East, its location of dubious strategic relevance to Washington, yet seen as indispensable to its global footprint.  On this occasion, the attack proved successful, killing three troops and wounding dozens.

    The Times of Israel offered a workmanlike description of the site’s role: “Tower 22 is located close enough to US troops at Tanf that it could potentially help support them, while potentially countering Iran-backed militants in the area and allowing troops to keep an eye on remnants of Islamic State in the region.”  The paper does not go on to mention the other role: that US forces are also present in the region to protect Israeli interests, acting as a shield against Iran.

    While Tower 22 is located more towards Jordan, it is a dozen miles or so to the Syria-based al-Tanf garrison, which retains a US troop presence.  Initially, that presence was justified to cope with the formidable threat posed by Islamic State as part of Operation Inherent Resolve.  In due course, it became something of a watch post on Iran’s burgeoning military presence in Syria and Iraq, an inflation as much a consequence of Tehran’s successful efforts against the fundamentalist group as it was a product of Washington’s destabilising invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    A January 28 press release from US Central Command notes that the attack was inflicted by “a one-way attack UAS [Unmanned Aerial System] that impacted on a base in northeast Jordan, near the Syrian border.”  Its description of Tower 22 is suitably vague, described as a “logistics support base” forming the Jordanian Defense Network.  “There are approximately 350 US Army and Air Force personnel deployed to the base, conducting a number of key support functions, including support to the coalition for the lasting defeat of ISIS.”  No mention is made of Iran or Israel.

    Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh found it hard to conceal the extent that US bases in the region have come under attack.  Clumsily, she tried to be vague as to reasons why such assaults were taking place to begin with, though her department has, since October 17 last year, tracked 165 attacks, 66 on US troops in Iraq and 98 in Syria.  The singular feature in the assault on Tower 22, she stressed, was that it worked.  “To my knowledge, there was nothing different or new about this attack that we’ve seen in other facilities that house our service members,” she told reporters on January 29.  “Unfortunately, this attack was successful, but we can’t discount the fact that other attacks, whether Iraq or Syria, were not intended to kill our service members.”

    A senior official from the umbrella grouping known as Islamic Resistance in Iraq justified the attack as part of a broader campaign against the US for its unwavering support for Israel and its relentlessly murderous campaign in Gaza.  (Since October 17, the group is said to have staged 140 attacks on US sites in both Iraq and Syria.)  “As we have said before if the US keeps supporting Israel, there will [be] escalations.”  The official in question went on to state that, “All the US interests in the region are legitimate targets, and we don’t care about US threats to respond.”

    A generally accepted view among security boffins is that US troops have achieved what they sought to do: cope with the threat posed by Islamic State.  As with any such groups, dissipation and readjustment eventually follows.  Washington’s military officials delight in using the term “degrade”, but it would be far better to simply assume that the fighters of such outfits eventually take up with others, blend into the locale, or simply go home.

    With roughly 3,000 personnel stationed in Jordan, 2,500 in Iraq, and 900 in Syria, US troops have become ripe targets as Israel’s war in Gaza rages.  In effect, they have become bits of surplus pieces on the Middle Eastern chessboard and, to that end, incentives for a broader conflict.  The Financial Times, noting the view of an unnamed source purporting to be a “senior western diplomat” (aren’t they always?), fretted that the tinderbox was about to go off.  “We’re always worried about US and Iranian forces getting into direct confrontation there, whether by accident or on purpose.”

    President Joe Biden has promised some suitable retaliation but does not wish for “a wider war in the Middle East.  That’s not what I’m looking for.”  A typically mangled response came from National Security Council spokesman John Kirby: “It’s very possible what you’ll see is a tiered approach here, not just a single action, but potentially multiple actions over a period of time.”

    Rather than seeing these attacks as incentives to leave such outposts, the don’t cut and run mentality may prove all too powerful in its muscular stupidity.  Empires do not merely bring with them sorrows but incentives to be stubborn.  The beneficiaries will be the usual coterie of war mongers and peace killers.

    The post Flashpoint for War: The Drone Killings at Tower 22 first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/01/flashpoint-for-war-the-drone-killings-at-tower-22-2/feed/ 0 456276
    Bulgaria Grants Asylum To Iranian Who Feared Death At Home If Deported https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/bulgaria-grants-asylum-to-iranian-who-feared-death-at-home-if-deported/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/bulgaria-grants-asylum-to-iranian-who-feared-death-at-home-if-deported/#respond Wed, 31 Jan 2024 21:12:15 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-grans-iranian-asylum-beigi-death-penalty/32800182.html Russia's war against Ukraine has eroded President Vladimir Putin's grip on power, hollowed out the Russian military, and stoked an "undercurrent of disaffection" within the country, according to the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

    In an essay published on January 30, William Burns, who also served as ambassador to Russia and in top State Department positions, urged U.S. lawmakers to pass a new package of weapons and equipment for Ukraine, calling it a "relatively modest investment with significant geopolitical returns for the United States and notable returns for American industry."

    "Putin's war has already been a failure for Russia on many levels," Burns wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs.

    "His original goal of seizing Kyiv and subjugating Ukraine proved foolish and illusory. His military has suffered immense damage. At least 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, two-thirds of Russia's prewar tank inventory has been destroyed, and Putin's vaunted decades-long military modernization program has been hollowed out."

    "His war in Ukraine is quietly corroding his power at home," he said.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    Burns' remarks come as Russia's mass invasion of Ukraine nears its second anniversary, with no end in sight to the conflict.

    Putin, who is expected to be resoundingly reelected in a March presidential vote, has framed the "special military operation" -- the Kremlin's euphemism for the war -- as a fundamental fight for Russia's historical identity.

    The Russian economy has been put on a war footing, hundreds of thousands of people have been mobilized, and many more Russians have fled the country, either to avoid military service or out of protest of internal repression.

    "One thing I have learned is that it is always a mistake to underestimate his [Putin's] fixation on controlling Ukraine and its choices," Burns wrote.

    "Without that control, he believes it is impossible for Russia to be a great power or for him to be a great Russian leader. That tragic and brutish fixation has already brought shame to Russia and exposed its weaknesses, from its one-dimensional economy to its inflated military prowess to its corrupt political system."

    Ukraine, meanwhile, has struggled to hold its battlefield positions after a failed counteroffensive last year. Western and Ukrainian officials had had high hopes for the effort, in part due to NATO training and powerful new Western weaponry.

    Both Russia and Ukraine are now dug in to established positions across the 1,200-kilometer front line as winter blankets the country. Some experts fear that Russia will retrench and replenish its forces, and be in a position to launch its own offensive as early as this summer.

    Domestically, Ukraine's leadership is facing growing impatience with the status of the war.

    News reports this week said that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is considering pushing out the country's top military officer, General Valeriy Zaluzhniy, a popular figure seen as a possible political rival to Zelenskiy.

    "This year is likely to be a tough one on the battlefield in Ukraine, a test of staying power whose consequences will go well beyond the country's heroic struggle to sustain its freedom and independence," Burns said.

    Putin "continues to bet that time is on his side, that he can grind down Ukraine and wear down its Western supporters," he added.

    Western aid to Ukraine has buoyed its fight against Russia, but enthusiasm for that has waned in Washington and other Western capitals.

    In the United States -- the biggest single supplier of arms and equipment to Ukraine -- Republican lawmakers have balked at authorizing President Joe Biden's new $61 billion aid package, insisting it should be tied to a broader reform of U.S. immigration laws.

    Burns argued that the U.S. funds were being well-spent by Ukraine, which is wearing down Russia.

    "The key to success lies in preserving Western aid for Ukraine," he wrote.

    "At less than 5 percent of the U.S. defense budget, it is a relatively modest investment with significant geopolitical returns for the United States and notable returns for American industry," Burns wrote.

    "Keeping the arms...offers a chance to ensure a long-term win for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine could safeguard its sovereignty and rebuild, while Russia would be left to deal with the enduring costs of Putin’s folly," he added.

    The Kremlin had not responded to Burns' essay as of January 31.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/bulgaria-grants-asylum-to-iranian-who-feared-death-at-home-if-deported/feed/ 0 456156
    U.S. Charges Four Chinese Nationals For Exporting Banned Electronics To Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/u-s-charges-four-chinese-nationals-for-exporting-banned-electronics-to-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/u-s-charges-four-chinese-nationals-for-exporting-banned-electronics-to-iran/#respond Wed, 31 Jan 2024 20:28:17 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-us-charges-chinese-banned-electronics-exports/32800154.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/u-s-charges-four-chinese-nationals-for-exporting-banned-electronics-to-iran/feed/ 0 456179
    Iranian Father Arrested For Murdering Teenage Son Over ‘Feminine’ Behavior and Makeup https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/iranian-father-arrested-for-murdering-teenage-son-over-feminine-behavior-and-makeup/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/iranian-father-arrested-for-murdering-teenage-son-over-feminine-behavior-and-makeup/#respond Wed, 31 Jan 2024 16:02:06 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-father-murders-son-lgbt-feminine-behavior/32799963.html

    Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast

    Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | YouTube

    Welcome back to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

    I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

    As Huthi rebels continue their assault on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the deepening crisis is posing a fresh test for China’s ambitions of becoming a power broker in the Middle East – and raising questions about whether Beijing can help bring the group to bay.

    Finding Perspective: U.S. officials have been asking China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Huthis, but according to the Financial Times, American officials say that they have seen no signs of help.

    Still, Washington keeps raising the issue. In weekend meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok, U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan again asked Beijing to use its “substantial leverage with Iran” to play a “constructive role” in stopping the attacks.

    Reuters, citing Iranian officials, reported on January 26 that Beijing urged Tehran at recent meetings to pressure the Huthis or risk jeopardizing business cooperation with China in the future.

    There are plenty of reasons to believe that China would want to bring the attacks to an end. The Huthis have disrupted global shipping, stoking fears of global inflation and even more instability in the Middle East.

    This also hurts China’s bottom line. The attacks are raising transport costs and jeopardizing the tens of billions of dollars that China has invested in nearby Egyptian ports.

    Why It Matters: The current crisis raises some complex questions for China’s ambitions in the Middle East.

    If China decides to pressure Iran, it’s unknown how much influence Tehran actually has over Yemen’s Huthis. Iran backs the group and supplies them with weapons, but it’s unclear if they can actually control and rein them in, as U.S. officials are calling for.

    But the bigger question might be whether this calculation looks the same from Beijing.

    China might be reluctant to get too involved and squander its political capital with Iran on trying to get the Huthis to stop their attacks, especially after the group has announced that it won’t attack Chinese ships transiting the Red Sea.

    Beijing is also unlikely to want to bring an end to something that’s hurting America’s interests arguably more than its own at the moment.

    U.S. officials say they’ll continue to talk with China about helping restore trade in the Red Sea, but Beijing might decide that it has more to gain by simply stepping back.

    Three More Stories From Eurasia

    1. ‘New Historical Heights’ For China And Uzbekistan

    Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev made a landmark three-day visit to Beijing, where he met with Xi, engaged with Chinese business leaders, and left with an officially upgraded relationship as the Central Asian leader increasingly looks to China for his economic future.

    The Details: As I reported here, Mirziyoev left Uzbekistan looking to usher in a new era and returned with upgraded diplomatic ties as an “all-weather” partner with China.

    The move to elevate to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” from a “comprehensive strategic partnership” doesn’t come with any formal benefits, but it’s a clear sign from Mirziyoev and Xi on where they want to take the relationship between their two countries.

    Before going to China for the January 23-25 trip, Mirziyoev signed a letter praising China’s progress in fighting poverty and saying he wanted to develop a “new long-term agenda” with Beijing that will last for “decades.”

    Beyond the diplomatic upgrade, China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.

    Xi and Mirzoyoev also spoke about the long-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with the Chinese leader saying that work should begin as soon as possible, athough no specifics were offered and there are reportedly still key disputes over how the megaproject will be financed.

    2. The Taliban’s New Man In Beijing

    In a move that could lay the groundwork for more diplomatic engagement with China, Xi received diplomatic credentials from the Taliban’s new ambassador in Beijing on January 25.

    What You Need To Know: Mawlawi Asadullah Bilal Karimi was accepted as part of a ceremony that also received the credential letters of 42 new envoys. Karimi was named as the new ambassador to Beijing on November 24 but has now formally been received by Xi, which is another installment in the slow boil toward recognition that’s under way.

    No country formally recognizes the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, but China – along with other countries such as Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have appointed their own envoys to Kabul and have maintained steady diplomatic engagement with the group since it returned to power in August 2021.

    Formal diplomatic recognition for the Taliban still looks to be far off, but this move highlights China’s strategy of de-facto recognition that could see other countries following its lead, paving the way for formal ties down the line.

    3. China’s Tightrope With Iran and Pakistan

    Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region, as I reported here.

    Both Islamabad and Tehran have since moved to mend fences, with their foreign ministers holding talks on January 29. But the incident put the spotlight on what China would do if two of its closest partners entered into conflict against one another.

    What It Means: The tit-for-tat strikes hit militant groups operating in each other’s territory. After a tough exchange, both countries quickly cooled their rhetoric – culminating in the recent talks held in Islamabad.

    And while Beijing has lots to lose in the event of a wider conflict between two of its allies, it appeared to remain quiet, with only a formal offer to mediate if needed.

    Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told me this approach reflects how China “shies away from situations like this,” in part to protect its reputation in case it intervenes and then fails.

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, added that, despite Beijing’s cautious approach, China has shown a willingness to mediate when opportunity strikes, pointing to the deal it helped broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

    “It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves,” he told me. “So [Beijing] might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed.”

    Across The Supercontinent

    China’s Odd Moment: What do the fall of the Soviet Union and China's slowing economy have in common? The answer is more than you might think.

    Listen to the latest episode of the Talking China In Eurasia podcast, where we explore how China's complicated relationship with the Soviet Union is shaping the country today.

    Invite Sent. Now What? Ukraine has invited Xi to participate in a planned “peace summit” of world leaders in Switzerland, Reuters reported, in a gathering tied to the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

    Blocked, But Why? China has suspended issuing visas to Lithuanian citizens. Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the news and told Lithuanian journalists that “we have been informed about this. No further information has been provided.”

    More Hydro Plans: Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and the China National Electric Engineering Company signed a memorandum of cooperation on January 24 to build a cascade of power plants and a new thermal power plant.

    One Thing To Watch

    There’s no official word, but it’s looking like veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao is the leading contender to become China’s next foreign minister.

    Wang Yi was reassigned to his old post after Qin Gang was abruptly removed as foreign minister last summer, and Wang is currently holding roles as both foreign minister and the more senior position of director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office.

    Liu has limited experience engaging with the West but served stints at the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog and currently heads a party agency traditionally tasked with building ties with other communist states.

    It also looks like he’s being groomed for the role. He recently completed a U.S. tour, where he met with top officials and business leaders, and has also made visits to the Middle East.

    That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

    Until next time,

    Reid Standish

    If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/31/iranian-father-arrested-for-murdering-teenage-son-over-feminine-behavior-and-makeup/feed/ 0 456321
    Prominent Tehran Bookstore Closed By Police Over Hijab Enforcement https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/30/prominent-tehran-bookstore-closed-by-police-over-hijab-enforcement/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/30/prominent-tehran-bookstore-closed-by-police-over-hijab-enforcement/#respond Tue, 30 Jan 2024 17:59:12 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-bookstore-closed-hijab/32798451.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/30/prominent-tehran-bookstore-closed-by-police-over-hijab-enforcement/feed/ 0 455951
    U.S., Britain Slap Sanctions Against 11 Iranian Officials Accused Of Attacks On Regime Critics Abroad https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/29/u-s-britain-slap-sanctions-against-11-iranian-officials-accused-of-attacks-on-regime-critics-abroad/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/29/u-s-britain-slap-sanctions-against-11-iranian-officials-accused-of-attacks-on-regime-critics-abroad/#respond Mon, 29 Jan 2024 15:58:58 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-britain-sanctions-iran-attacks-critics/32796743.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/29/u-s-britain-slap-sanctions-against-11-iranian-officials-accused-of-attacks-on-regime-critics-abroad/feed/ 0 455662
    Biden Blames Iranian-Backed Groups For 3 U.S. Deaths In Jordan https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/biden-blames-iranian-backed-groups-for-3-u-s-deaths-in-jordan/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/biden-blames-iranian-backed-groups-for-3-u-s-deaths-in-jordan/#respond Sun, 28 Jan 2024 17:08:10 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-us-jordan-drone-attack/32795353.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/biden-blames-iranian-backed-groups-for-3-u-s-deaths-in-jordan/feed/ 0 455448
    Iran Wraps Up Trial Of Swedish EU Diplomat https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/iran-wraps-up-trial-of-swedish-eu-diplomat/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/iran-wraps-up-trial-of-swedish-eu-diplomat/#respond Sun, 28 Jan 2024 16:31:19 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-eu-sweden-floderus-trial/32795332.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/iran-wraps-up-trial-of-swedish-eu-diplomat/feed/ 0 455467
    Islamabad Condemns Killing Of Nine Pakistanis In Iran, Demands Investigation https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/islamabad-condemns-killing-of-nine-pakistanis-in-iran-demands-investigation/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/islamabad-condemns-killing-of-nine-pakistanis-in-iran-demands-investigation/#respond Sun, 28 Jan 2024 15:07:05 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-iran-condemns-deaths/32795293.html KYIV -- Ukrainian officials on January 27 said Russia had intensified attacks in the past 24 hours, with a commander saying the sides had battled through "50 combat clashes" in the past day near Ukraine's Tavria region.

    Meanwhile, Kyiv and Moscow continued to dispute the circumstances surrounding the January 24 crash of a Russian military transport plane that the Kremlin claimed was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.

    Kyiv said it has no proof POWs were aboard and has not confirmed its forces shot down the plane.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, the Ukrainian commander in the Tavria zone in the Zaporizhzhya region, said Russian forces had "significantly increased" the number of offensive and assault operations over the past two days.

    "For the second day in a row, the enemy has conducted 50 combat clashes daily,” he wrote on Telegram.

    "Also, the enemy has carried out 100 air strikes in the operational zone of the Tavria Joint Task Force within seven days," he said, adding that 230 Russian-launched drones had been "neutralized or destroyed" over the past day in the area.

    Battlefield claims on either side cannot immediately be confirmed.

    Earlier, the Ukrainian military said 98 combat clashes took place between Ukrainian troops and the invading Russian army over the past 24 hours.

    "There are dead and wounded among the civilian populations," the Ukrianian military's General Staff said in its daily update, but did not provide further details about the casualties.

    According to the General Staff, Russian forces launched eight missile and four air strikes, and carried out 78 attacks from rocket-salvo systems on Ukrainian troop positions and populated areas. Iranian-made Shahed drones and Iskander ballistic missiles were used in the attacks, it said.

    A number of "high-rise residential buildings, schools, kindergartens, a shopping center, and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed or damaged" in the latest Russian strikes, the bulletin said.

    "More than 120 settlements came under artillery fire in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolayiv regions," according to the daily update.

    The General Staff also reported that Ukrainian defenders repelled dozens of Russian assaults in eight directions, including Avdiyivka, Bakhmut, Maryinka, and Kupyansk in the eastern Donetsk region.

    Meanwhile, Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukrainian military intelligence, said it remained unclear what happened in the crash of the Russian Il-76 that the Kremlin claimed was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were killed along with nine crew members.

    The Kremlin said the military transport plane was shot down by a Ukrainian missile despite the fact that Russian forces had alerted Kyiv to the flight’s path.

    Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov told RFE/RL that it had not received either a written or verbal request to secure the airspace where the plane went down.

    The situation with the crash of the aircraft "is not yet fully understood,” Budanov said.

    "It is necessary to determine what happened – unfortunately, neither side can fully answer that yet."

    Russia "of course, has taken the position of blaming Ukraine for everything, despite the fact that there are a number of facts that are inconsistent with such a position," he added.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted Ukraine shot down the plane and said an investigation was being carried out, with a report to be made in the upcoming days.

    In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the creation of a second body to assist businesses in the war-torn country.

    Speaking in his nightly video address late on January 26, Zelenskiy said the All-Ukraine Economic Platform would help businesses overcome the challenges posed by Russia's nearly two-year-old invasion.

    On January 23, Zelenskiy announced the formation of a Council for the Support of Entrepreneurship, which he said sought to strengthen the country's economy and clarify issues related to law enforcement agencies. Decrees creating both bodies were published on January 26.

    Ukraine's economy has collapsed in many sectors since Russia invaded the country in February 2022. Kyiv heavily relies on international aid from its Western partnes.

    The Voice of America reported that the United States vowed to promote at the international level a peace formula put forward by Zelenskiy.

    VOA quoted White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby as saying that Washington "is committed to the policy of supporting initiatives emanating from the leadership of Ukraine."

    Zelenskiy last year presented his 10-point peace formula that includes the withdrawal of Russian forces and the restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity, among other things.

    With reporting by Reuters and dpa


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
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    Iran Seizes Vessel Carrying ‘Smuggled Fuel’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/iran-seizes-vessel-carrying-smuggled-fuel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/28/iran-seizes-vessel-carrying-smuggled-fuel/#respond Sun, 28 Jan 2024 13:56:27 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-irgc-tanker-smuggling/32795248.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    US urges China to push Iran to pressure Houthis over Red Sea attacks https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/sullivan-wang-yi-01272024102737.html https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/sullivan-wang-yi-01272024102737.html#respond Sat, 27 Jan 2024 17:06:00 +0000 https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/sullivan-wang-yi-01272024102737.html U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has asked Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to stop the Houthis in Yemen from attacking Red Sea trade routes.

    The appeal came during two days of meetings in Bangkok between the pair, according to a senior Biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity according to rules set by the White House.

    Over 12 hours, the pair also discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Myanmar’s civil war, North Korea, Israel’s war with Hamas, the South China Sea, fentanyl and artificial intelligence, the official said.

    It was their first meeting since Oct. 26, when Wang visited Washington in the run-up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to San Francisco in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, during which he also held direct talks with U.S. President Joe Biden.

    The official said the meeting was meant to build on the commitments made during that summit, including to reinstate military-to-military talks and to stem illicit Chinese exports of precursors for fentanyl, which has been called a leading cause of death for American adults.

    A working group on counternarcotics would be established on Tuesday and both Military-Maritime Consultative Agreement Meetings and talks about regulating artificial intelligence would be held in the Spring. 

    “The two sides are committed to continuing these strategic channels of communication,” the official said, adding there would be “a telephone call between the two leaders at some point in the coming months.”

    Diplomatic telephone

    On the apparently widening conflict in the Middle East that began with the attack on Israel by Hamas on Oct. 7, the White House official said Sullivan had pressed Wang to use Beijing’s influence on Iran to push it to end attacks by Houthis on trade ships transiting the Red Sea.

    The Houthis’ latest attack took place Friday and this time directly targeted a U.S. warship, the USS Carney, which was patrolling the area to try to prevent further attacks in the lucrative trade route.

    Both Hamas and the Houthis have been labeled “proxies” of Iran by the United States, with Tehran not viewed as having direct control of either group but being accused of funding and training both. The Houthis, meanwhile, are accused of targeting trade ships off Yemen’s coast in response to Israel’s invasion of Hamas-controlled Gaza.

    As a major trading nation, China had its own interests in stopping the attacks on the Red Sea route and had the ability to pressure Iran as one of the biggest buyers of its oil, the White House official said.

    “We would characterize both the economic and trade relationship as giving Beijing leverage over Iran to some extent. How they choose to use that, of course, is China's choice,” the official said.

    “Iran’s influence over the Houthis, and the Houthis’ destabilization of global shipping, raises serious concerns not just for the U.S. and China but for global trade,” they added. “There should be a clear interest in China in trying to quiet some of those attacks.”

    The civil war in Myanmar was also discussed by Sullivan and Wang, building off talks between Sullivan and Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Friday, during which the official said Sullivan “stressed the importance” of getting humanitarian aid into Myanmar.

    However, the official said the United States was less hopeful about China’s assistance in pushing North Korea to end its growing nuclear weapons program or its recent provision of ballistic missiles to Russia.

    “I'm not sure I would characterize anything recently as constructive,” the official said, adding the United States still hoped China would come round to helping “bring us back to the path of denuclearization.”


    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By Alex Willemyns for RFA.

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    Biden Adviser Raised Iran’s Support For Huthis With China https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/27/biden-adviser-raised-irans-support-for-huthis-with-china/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/27/biden-adviser-raised-irans-support-for-huthis-with-china/#respond Sat, 27 Jan 2024 16:49:56 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-china-iran-huthis/32794485.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Pakistan Confirms Death Of 9 Citizens In Attack By Unknown Gunmen Inside Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/27/pakistan-confirms-death-of-9-citizens-in-attack-by-unknown-gunmen-inside-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/27/pakistan-confirms-death-of-9-citizens-in-attack-by-unknown-gunmen-inside-iran/#respond Sat, 27 Jan 2024 14:25:19 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-pakistan-baluchistan-killings/32794410.html KYIV -- Ukrainian officials on January 27 said Russia had intensified attacks in the past 24 hours, with a commander saying the sides had battled through "50 combat clashes" in the past day near Ukraine's Tavria region.

    Meanwhile, Kyiv and Moscow continued to dispute the circumstances surrounding the January 24 crash of a Russian military transport plane that the Kremlin claimed was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.

    Kyiv said it has no proof POWs were aboard and has not confirmed its forces shot down the plane.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, the Ukrainian commander in the Tavria zone in the Zaporizhzhya region, said Russian forces had "significantly increased" the number of offensive and assault operations over the past two days.

    "For the second day in a row, the enemy has conducted 50 combat clashes daily,” he wrote on Telegram.

    "Also, the enemy has carried out 100 air strikes in the operational zone of the Tavria Joint Task Force within seven days," he said, adding that 230 Russian-launched drones had been "neutralized or destroyed" over the past day in the area.

    Battlefield claims on either side cannot immediately be confirmed.

    Earlier, the Ukrainian military said 98 combat clashes took place between Ukrainian troops and the invading Russian army over the past 24 hours.

    "There are dead and wounded among the civilian populations," the Ukrianian military's General Staff said in its daily update, but did not provide further details about the casualties.

    According to the General Staff, Russian forces launched eight missile and four air strikes, and carried out 78 attacks from rocket-salvo systems on Ukrainian troop positions and populated areas. Iranian-made Shahed drones and Iskander ballistic missiles were used in the attacks, it said.

    A number of "high-rise residential buildings, schools, kindergartens, a shopping center, and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed or damaged" in the latest Russian strikes, the bulletin said.

    "More than 120 settlements came under artillery fire in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolayiv regions," according to the daily update.

    The General Staff also reported that Ukrainian defenders repelled dozens of Russian assaults in eight directions, including Avdiyivka, Bakhmut, Maryinka, and Kupyansk in the eastern Donetsk region.

    Meanwhile, Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukrainian military intelligence, said it remained unclear what happened in the crash of the Russian Il-76 that the Kremlin claimed was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were killed along with nine crew members.

    The Kremlin said the military transport plane was shot down by a Ukrainian missile despite the fact that Russian forces had alerted Kyiv to the flight’s path.

    Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov told RFE/RL that it had not received either a written or verbal request to secure the airspace where the plane went down.

    The situation with the crash of the aircraft "is not yet fully understood,” Budanov said.

    "It is necessary to determine what happened – unfortunately, neither side can fully answer that yet."

    Russia "of course, has taken the position of blaming Ukraine for everything, despite the fact that there are a number of facts that are inconsistent with such a position," he added.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted Ukraine shot down the plane and said an investigation was being carried out, with a report to be made in the upcoming days.

    In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the creation of a second body to assist businesses in the war-torn country.

    Speaking in his nightly video address late on January 26, Zelenskiy said the All-Ukraine Economic Platform would help businesses overcome the challenges posed by Russia's nearly two-year-old invasion.

    On January 23, Zelenskiy announced the formation of a Council for the Support of Entrepreneurship, which he said sought to strengthen the country's economy and clarify issues related to law enforcement agencies. Decrees creating both bodies were published on January 26.

    Ukraine's economy has collapsed in many sectors since Russia invaded the country in February 2022. Kyiv heavily relies on international aid from its Western partnes.

    The Voice of America reported that the United States vowed to promote at the international level a peace formula put forward by Zelenskiy.

    VOA quoted White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby as saying that Washington "is committed to the policy of supporting initiatives emanating from the leadership of Ukraine."

    Zelenskiy last year presented his 10-point peace formula that includes the withdrawal of Russian forces and the restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity, among other things.

    With reporting by Reuters and dpa


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Huthis’ TV Says U.S., British Air Strikes Target Yemen Port https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/27/huthis-tv-says-u-s-british-air-strikes-target-yemen-port/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/27/huthis-tv-says-u-s-british-air-strikes-target-yemen-port/#respond Sat, 27 Jan 2024 09:12:13 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-strikes-yemen-huthi/32794197.html KYIV -- Ukrainian officials on January 27 said Russia had intensified attacks in the past 24 hours, with a commander saying the sides had battled through "50 combat clashes" in the past day near Ukraine's Tavria region.

    Meanwhile, Kyiv and Moscow continued to dispute the circumstances surrounding the January 24 crash of a Russian military transport plane that the Kremlin claimed was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.

    Kyiv said it has no proof POWs were aboard and has not confirmed its forces shot down the plane.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, the Ukrainian commander in the Tavria zone in the Zaporizhzhya region, said Russian forces had "significantly increased" the number of offensive and assault operations over the past two days.

    "For the second day in a row, the enemy has conducted 50 combat clashes daily,” he wrote on Telegram.

    "Also, the enemy has carried out 100 air strikes in the operational zone of the Tavria Joint Task Force within seven days," he said, adding that 230 Russian-launched drones had been "neutralized or destroyed" over the past day in the area.

    Battlefield claims on either side cannot immediately be confirmed.

    Earlier, the Ukrainian military said 98 combat clashes took place between Ukrainian troops and the invading Russian army over the past 24 hours.

    "There are dead and wounded among the civilian populations," the Ukrianian military's General Staff said in its daily update, but did not provide further details about the casualties.

    According to the General Staff, Russian forces launched eight missile and four air strikes, and carried out 78 attacks from rocket-salvo systems on Ukrainian troop positions and populated areas. Iranian-made Shahed drones and Iskander ballistic missiles were used in the attacks, it said.

    A number of "high-rise residential buildings, schools, kindergartens, a shopping center, and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed or damaged" in the latest Russian strikes, the bulletin said.

    "More than 120 settlements came under artillery fire in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolayiv regions," according to the daily update.

    The General Staff also reported that Ukrainian defenders repelled dozens of Russian assaults in eight directions, including Avdiyivka, Bakhmut, Maryinka, and Kupyansk in the eastern Donetsk region.

    Meanwhile, Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukrainian military intelligence, said it remained unclear what happened in the crash of the Russian Il-76 that the Kremlin claimed was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were killed along with nine crew members.

    The Kremlin said the military transport plane was shot down by a Ukrainian missile despite the fact that Russian forces had alerted Kyiv to the flight’s path.

    Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov told RFE/RL that it had not received either a written or verbal request to secure the airspace where the plane went down.

    The situation with the crash of the aircraft "is not yet fully understood,” Budanov said.

    "It is necessary to determine what happened – unfortunately, neither side can fully answer that yet."

    Russia "of course, has taken the position of blaming Ukraine for everything, despite the fact that there are a number of facts that are inconsistent with such a position," he added.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted Ukraine shot down the plane and said an investigation was being carried out, with a report to be made in the upcoming days.

    In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the creation of a second body to assist businesses in the war-torn country.

    Speaking in his nightly video address late on January 26, Zelenskiy said the All-Ukraine Economic Platform would help businesses overcome the challenges posed by Russia's nearly two-year-old invasion.

    On January 23, Zelenskiy announced the formation of a Council for the Support of Entrepreneurship, which he said sought to strengthen the country's economy and clarify issues related to law enforcement agencies. Decrees creating both bodies were published on January 26.

    Ukraine's economy has collapsed in many sectors since Russia invaded the country in February 2022. Kyiv heavily relies on international aid from its Western partnes.

    The Voice of America reported that the United States vowed to promote at the international level a peace formula put forward by Zelenskiy.

    VOA quoted White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby as saying that Washington "is committed to the policy of supporting initiatives emanating from the leadership of Ukraine."

    Zelenskiy last year presented his 10-point peace formula that includes the withdrawal of Russian forces and the restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity, among other things.

    With reporting by Reuters and dpa


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    France, Germany, U.K. Condemn Iran’s Launch Of Soraya Satellite https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/26/france-germany-u-k-condemn-irans-launch-of-soraya-satellite/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/26/france-germany-u-k-condemn-irans-launch-of-soraya-satellite/#respond Fri, 26 Jan 2024 21:05:52 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-soraya-satellite-france-germany-uk-condemn/32793618.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Imperialism and Anti-imperialism Collide in Ukraine (Part 3 of 16) https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/26/imperialism-and-anti-imperialism-collide-in-ukraine-part-3-of-16/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/26/imperialism-and-anti-imperialism-collide-in-ukraine-part-3-of-16/#respond Fri, 26 Jan 2024 15:58:56 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=147707 Premise Consider this paradox: without the Soviet Union (U.S.-designated nemesis since 1917), the United States would have never succeeded at placing the planet under its unilateral grip—often referred to by U.S. imperialists as the “new world order”. Or, rephrased differently, a world whereby the U.S. wants to rule unchallenged. This how it started: first, forget […]

    The post Imperialism and Anti-imperialism Collide in Ukraine (Part 3 of 16) first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Premise

    Consider this paradox: without the Soviet Union (U.S.-designated nemesis since 1917), the United States would have never succeeded at placing the planet under its unilateral grip—often referred to by U.S. imperialists as the “new world order”. Or, rephrased differently, a world whereby the U.S. wants to rule unchallenged. This how it started: first, forget the Soviet Politburo—Mikhail Gorbachev practically annulled its role as the supreme decision-maker body of the Soviet Communist Party before proceeding to dismantle the Soviet state. In sequence, he, his foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze, other anti-communists in his inner circle, and the Yeltsin group were the material instruments in the downfall of the USSR thus leading to U.S. success.

    By a twist of events, with its unrelenting policy of economic, geopolitical, and military pressure to submit the new Russia to its will, the United States effectively forced it to intervene in Ukraine many years later. After 33 years from the dismantling the Soviet Union (first by Gorbachev’s contraptions of perestroika and glasnost, and then by Yeltsin’s pro-Western free-marketers), Russia is now breaking up the monstrous American order it helped create. Today, it seems that Russia have reprised its founding principles in the world arena—not as an ideologically anti-imperialist Soviet socialist republic, but as an anti-hegemonic capitalistic state.

    The process for the U.S. world control worked like this: taking advantage of Gorbachev’s dismantlement of the socialist system in Eastern Europe and his planned breakup of the USSR, the United States followed a multi-pronged strategy to assert itself as the sole judge of world affairs. The starting point was the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. With the success of its two-stage war to end that occupation (Operations: Desert Shield, 1990, and Operation: Desert Storm, 1991) the United States achieved multiple objectives. Notably, it removed the USSR completely from the world scene even before it was officially dismantled, and it put Iraq and the entire Arab world under its effective control, and it tested its new world order.

    Far more important, with a considerably weakened Russia taking the seat of the USSR at the Security Council, the United States finally completed its takeover of the United Nations. Although the hyperpower is known for routinely operating out of the international norms and treaties, and has myriad methods to enforce its influence or control over foreign nations, it is a fact that whoever controls the Security Council can use its resolutions—and their ever-changing interpretations— as authorization for military interventions in the name of so-called collective international legality.

    Still, it is incorrect to say that the United States has become the omnipotent controller without considering the other three permanent members of the Security Council:  Britain, France, and China. First, aside from being the two states with a known history of imperialism and colonialism, Britain and France are NATO countries. As such, they pose no threat to U.S. authority. This leaves China. (For now, I shall briefly discuss China’s role vis-à-vis the U.S. taking control of the Security Council after the demise of the USSR, while deferring its relevance to U.S. plans in Ukraine to the upcoming parts)

    China has been rising as world power since the early 1990s onward. That being said, China’s world outlook has been consistently based on cooperation and peace among nations. China is neither an imperialist nor expansionist or interventionist state, and its claim on taking back Taiwan is historical, legal, and legitimate. That being said, China’s abstention from voting on serious issues is seriously questionable. Interpretation: China seems primarily focused on building its economic and technological structures instead of antagonizing U.S. policies that could slow its pace due to its [China] growing integration in the global capitalistic system of production. Consider the following two Western viewpoints on China’s voting practices:

    • The Australian think tank, Lowy Institute, states, “China used its UN Security Council rotating presidency in August … China did not veto any UN Security Council resolutions between 2000 and 2006.”

    Observation: but the period 2000–2006 was the post-9/11 Orwellian environment in which the United States broke all laws of the U.N. and turned the organization into its private fiefdom. Does that mean China had caved in to U.S. pressure and subscribed to its objectives? Based on its history, ideals, stated foreign policy principles, and political makeup, my answer is no. Yet, we do know that China has often been moving alongside U.S. objectives—by remaining silent on them. Examples include the U.S. 13-year blockade of and sanctions on Iraq (starting in 1990 and theoretically ending after the U.S. invasion in 2003), as well post-invasion occupation that is lasting through present by diverse ways and methods.

    • Wikipedia (Caveat: never take anything printed on this website seriously unless you verify content rigorously) stated the following on China, “From 1971 to 2011, China used its veto sparingly, preferring to abstain rather than veto resolutions not directly related to Chinese interests. China turned abstention into an “art form”, abstaining on 30% of Security Council Resolutions between 1971 and 1976. Since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, China has joined Russia in many double vetoes. China has not cast a lone veto since 1999.”

    Observation: by abstaining, China seems to be playing politics and patently taking sides with Washington on critical issues. Is china conspiring, in some form, with the U.S. for selfish reasons? Are there other reasons?

    No science is needed to prove that China is neither fearful of the United States nor subservient to it or uncertain about its own great place in the world. Simply, China favors dialogue over confrontation and patience over nervous impulses. Although such conduct may unnerve some who want to see China stand up to the hyper-imperialist bully, the fact is, China is no hurry to play its cards before the issue of Taiwan is resolved. Still, by its own problematic actions at the Security Council, China is not a dependable obstacle to U.S. plans. Of interest to the anti-imperialist front, however, is that China’s voting record on Iraq, Libya, and Yemen has left dire consequences on those nations.

    Russia’s Intervention in Ukraine: Dialectics 

    Russia’s intervention in Ukraine was calculated and consequential. It was calculated based on symmetric response to U.S. long-term planning aiming at destabilizing it. The consequentiality factor is significant. Russia’s action did not precede but followed a protracted standoff with Ukraine following U.S.-organized coup in 2014. Not only did that coup topple the legitimate government of Viktor Yanukovych, but also veered Ukraine’s new rulers toward a fanatical confrontation with Russia and ethnic Russians—a sizable minority in Donbass.

    Could comparing U.S. and Russian reactions to each other’s interventions shed light on the scope of their respective world policies? How does all this apply to Ukraine? First, Ukraine is not a conflict about territory, democracy, sovereignty, and all that jargon made to distract from the real issues and for the idle consumption of news. Second, to understand the war on Ukraine, we need to place Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in a historical context that —at least since the dismantlement of the USSR.

    Premise 

    The study of reactions by political states to military interventions and wars is an empirical science. By knowing who is intervening, who is approving, and who is opposing, and by observing and cataloging their conduct vis-à-vis a conflict, we can definitely identify pretexts, motives, and objectives. For example, when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, the reaction of the United States, key European countries, Israel, Arab Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan were unanimously approving—and supporting with instigation, money, weapons, and logistics. The Soviet Union on the other hand, called for dialogue, negotiation, and other ways to end the conflict.

    In the Iraq-Iran War, the U.S., Europe, and Israel wanted the war to continue so both would perish by it. Henry Kissinger the top priest of U.S. Zionism simplified the U.S. objective with these words, “The ultimate American interest in the war (is) that both should lose”. Consequently, Western weapons sales to both contenders skyrocketed—war is business. The Arab Gulf states, for example, financed and wanted Iraq to defeat Iran—its revolutionary model threatened their feudal family systems of government. They also looked for surgical ways to weaken Iraq thus stopping its calls for the unification of Arab states.

    It turned out, when the war ended after eight years without losers and winners, that U.S. and Israel’s objective evolved to defeat Iraq that had become, in the meanwhile, a regional power. The opportunity came up when Iraq, falling in the U.S. trap (April Glaspie’s deception; also read, “Wikileaks, April Glaspie, and Saddam Hussein”) invaded Kuwait consequent to oil disputes and debts from its Gulf-U.S.-instigated war with Iran. As for Iran, it became the subject of harsh American containment and sanction regimes lasting to this very date.

    Another example is the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. While the USSR, China, Arab States, and countless others only condemned but did nothing else as usual, Ronald Reagan, on the other hand, approved and sent his marines to break up the Palestinian Resistance and expel it from Lebanon, which was an Israeli primary objective.

    United States: Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Afghanistan

    When the USSR intervened in Afghanistan in 1979, that country became an American issue instantly. Cold war paradigms played a paramount role in the U.S. response. Not only did the U.S. (with Saudi Arabia’s money) invent so-called Islamist mujahedeen against the Russian “atheists” (operation Cyclone), but also created ad hoc regional “alliances’—similar to those operating in Ukraine today—to counter the Soviet intervention.

    Russia: Reaction to U.S.’s many interventions and invasions 

    When Lyndon Johnson invaded the Dominican Republic (1965), when Ronald Reagan mined the Nicaraguan ports (1981-85), and when George H.W. Bush invaded Panama (1989) and moved its president to U.S. prisons, the USSR reacted by invoking the rules of international law—albeit knowing that said law never mattered to the United States. The Kremlin of Mikhail Gorbachev stated that the invasion is “A flagrant violation of the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter and norms of relations among states”.

    But did he do anything to hold the U.S. accountable? Gorbachev knew well that words are cheap, and that from an American perspective such charter and norms are ready for activation only when they serve U.S. imperialist purpose. The U.S., of course, did not give a hoot to Gorbachev’s protestation—and that is the problem with Russian leaders: they avoid principled confrontation with the futile expectation that the United States would refrain from bullying Russia. One can spot this tendency when Russian leaders kept calling U.S. and European politicians “our partners” while fully knowing that the recipients are probably smirking in secret.

    Another catastrophic example is Gorbachev’s voting (alongside the United States) for the U.N. Resolution 678 to end Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait by January 15, 1991. According to my research, that was the first time in which a resolution came with a deadline. Meaning, the United States (and Gorbachev) were in a hurry to implement Bush’s plan for world control.

    Not only did the Gorbachev regime approve Resolution 678, but also approved all U.S. resolutions pertaining to Iraq since the day it invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990. The statement is important. It means that Gorbachev’s role was structurally fundamental in allowing the United States to become the de facto “chief executive officer” of world affairs. At the same time, his role was also the material instrument in turning Russia into a U.S. vassal for over two decades since the dissolution of the USSR. [After becoming a former president of a superpower, Gorbachev made a living by taking commissioned speeches at various U.S. universities and think tanks]

    From attentively reading Resolution 678, it is very clear that the objective was not about the withdrawal of Iraq from Kuwait. Decisively, it was about the disarming of Iraq for the sake of the Zionist entity in Palestine. In fact, the U.S. bombing of Iraq in 1991 was never meant just to end that occupation by dislodging Iraqi forces from Kuwait. It was enacted to destroy Iraq’s civilian structures and infrastructures, its army, and its nascent military industry including its nuclear capabilities.

    The point: Gorbachev as a convert from communism to capitalism closed his eyes to U.S. objectives in Iraq and the world—these were unimportant to his plan since he obviously tied a deeply altered USSR to the wheel of U.S. imperialism while thinking he and his regime still mattered. With that, he doomed future Russia to protracted hardship and the world to suffer at the hands of U.S. violent imperialists and Zionists.

    The Example of Libya: Zionist hyper-imperialist Barack Obama bombed Libya in 2011. [For the record, the Jerusalem Post (top publication in the Zionist state) called Obama, “An insider’s view: Eight years watching the first Jewish US president”. (Describing Obama as Jewish is irrelevant. He was a Zionist at the service of Israel via a constructed career powered by opportunism and sycophancy) Obama’s bombing of Libya is testimony to Russia’s betrayal of just causes when that suits its calculations.

    Russia of Dmitry Medvedev (and Putin as his prime minister) explicitly accepted the U.S. plan by not vetoing UNSC 1970, and UNSC Resolution 1973 that declared the whole of Libya a No-Fly Zone. Once the resolution was passed, the U.S. (and NATO) transformed it at once into a colossal bombing of that country. (Debating whether Russian’s general conduct toward U.S. tactics was an expression of pragmatism, concession, collusion, or weakness goes beyond the scope of this work. I reported on Lavrov’s statement on the Libyan issue further down in this series.)

    As for the United States, a fascist Hillary Clinton disguised as an “intelligent diplomat” epitomized the U.S. role for government change in Libya as follows. Referring to the brutal murder of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Obama’s Secretary of State said, “We came, we saw, he died”. Aside from theatrically debasing Mark Anthony’s famous victory exclamation with her crazed laughter, Clinton’s “WE” confirmed the basics: Odyssey Dawn was a code name, not for a romantic beginning for Libya but for Obama’s imperialist war to conquer its oil and depose its leader.

    Two other events are significant for their long-term implications: U.S. invasions of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003). Regardless of U.S. pretexts, Russia reacted to each invasion differently. In the case of Afghanistan, it sided with the United States in spite of the fact that Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban had nothing to do with the still very much suspicious attack on the United States on September 11, 2021. It is imperative to recall what Tony Blair said prior to the Anglo-American invasion. Media and public records of the British government can confirm that Blair thundered to the Taliban, “Surrender Bin Laden, or lose power”. The Taliban offered to comply if the U.S. could prove that Bin Laden was behind the attack. The U.S. never responded—it just invaded.

    In the case of Iraq, Russia, together with France and Germany, vehemently opposed the planned invasion but only within the realm of the UNSC. The U.S. and Britain invaded nevertheless. Aside from protesting, however, neither Russia nor any other country took any punitive action against the top two imperialist powers. More than that, Russia of the first Putin presidency sent neither weapons nor money to Iraq and Afghanistan to help them fight the invaders. Germany and France did the same. Was that for “solidarity” with invaders or fear from U.S. retribution?

    What is worse, Russia and China had even accepted the U.S.‑imposed U.N. resolution 1483 that crowned the United States and Britain as the occupying powers of Iraq. That acceptance is a moral, historical, and legal blunder that the passing of time will never erase. This how it should be interpreted politically: with the passing of that resolution, Russia and China had not only legalized the U.S. imperialist occupation of Iraq, but also lent international legitimacy to the invasion and it is false motives.

    A question: why did not the United States and Britain try to declare themselves as the occupying powers of Afghanistan? The answer is prompt: look no farther than the Zionist Israeli project to re-shape and control Iraq and other Arab countries via the United States. Accordingly, Afghanistan is not relevant to this scheme.

    To close, I’m not suggesting that interventions by any country are tolerable as long as “A” can do whatever “B” does or vice versa, or, as long as they do not stand in the way of each other. That would void the struggle for a just world system where natural states could enjoy independence and security. Rather, to address persistent questions on the current configuration of the world order, we must tackle first the issue of exclusive entitlement. That is, we like to know according to what rule Russia, China, or any other country should remain mute while the dictatorial, violent hyper-empire continues staking its claim to arrange the world according to its vision? If this rule turns out to be by means of fire, death, and printed money, then we may finally understand the miserable situation of the world today and find all possible means to end it.

    It is no small matter, but the “indispensable nation” [Madeleine Albright’s words and Barack Obama] seems to think it deserves this exclusivity. American biblical preachers, hyper-imperialists, multi-term politicians, think tanks, proselytes of all types, military industry, and neophyte politicians seeking promotions within the system, and, before I forget, Zionist neocon empire builders often declare that the U.S. is predestined to rule over others. Biden, a self-declared Zionist has recently re-baptized the notion of U.S. ruling over others when he declared that the U.S. must lead the new world order.

    Another Subject: American ideologues of permanent wars persistently talk about what appears to be a fixed target: Ukraine must win and Russia must lose. What hides behind such frivolous theatrics? First off, why Ukraine must win and Russia must lose? Stating so because Russia intervened in Ukraine is non sequitur. The United States, Britain, France, and Israel have been punching the world with invasions for decades without anyone being able to stop them. Ineluctably, therefore, there should be fundamental reasons for wanting to see Russia lose.

    To begin, U.S. tactics to frame wars in terms of winning and losing is at the very least childish and makes no sense. Further, whereas waging wars of domination are built on a hypothetical model that ends with “we win they lose”, the resulting indoctrination paradigm is invariably translated into an ideological construct whereby winning is a sign of power and losing is a sign weakness. Again, that makes no sense. One could lose not out of weakness or could win not out of strength. In endless situations, winning or losing in any field is a function of varied dynamic and static forces leading to either outcome by default.

    In real context, the fabricated philosophy pivoting around the must-win scenario while discarding potential devastating reactions by a designated adversary is of paramount significance to understand the dangerous mindset of American politicians and war planners. As they prepare pretexts for a war by choice, they completely jump over the possibility that an opposite response could devastate them. How does the process work?

    Read Part 1 and 2.

    The post Imperialism and Anti-imperialism Collide in Ukraine (Part 3 of 16) first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by B.J. Sabri.

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    Biden Must Choose between a Ceasefire in Gaza and a Regional War https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/biden-must-choose-between-a-ceasefire-in-gaza-and-a-regional-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/biden-must-choose-between-a-ceasefire-in-gaza-and-a-regional-war/#respond Thu, 25 Jan 2024 19:53:22 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=147711 Houthi-affiliated Yemeni coastguard patrols the Red Sea, flying Palestinian and Yemeni flags. [Credit: AFP] In the topsy-turvy world of corporate media reporting on U.S. foreign policy, we have been led to believe that U.S. air strikes on Yemen, Iraq and Syria are legitimate and responsible efforts to contain the expanding war over Israel’s genocide in […]

    The post Biden Must Choose between a Ceasefire in Gaza and a Regional War first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    Houthi-affiliated Yemeni coastguard patrols the Red Sea, flying Palestinian and Yemeni flags. [Credit: AFP]

    In the topsy-turvy world of corporate media reporting on U.S. foreign policy, we have been led to believe that U.S. air strikes on Yemen, Iraq and Syria are legitimate and responsible efforts to contain the expanding war over Israel’s genocide in Gaza, while the actions of the Houthi government in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran and its allies in Iraq and Syria are all dangerous escalations.

    In fact, it is U.S. and Israeli actions that are driving the expansion of the war, while Iran and others are genuinely trying to find effective ways to counter and end Israel’s genocide in Gaza while avoiding a full-scale regional war.

    We are encouraged by Egypt and Qatar’s efforts to mediate a ceasefire and the release of hostages and prisoners-of-war by both sides. But it is important to recognize who are the aggressors, who are the victims, and how regional actors are taking incremental but increasingly forceful action to respond to genocide.

    A near-total Israeli communications blackout in Gaza has reduced the flow of images of the ongoing massacre on our TVs and computer screens, but the slaughter has not abated. Israel is bombing and attacking Khan Younis, the largest city in the southern Gaza Strip, as ruthlessly as it did Gaza City in the north. Israeli forces and U.S. weapons have killed an average of 240 Gazans per day for more than three months, and 70% of the dead are still women and children.

    Israel has repeatedly claimed it is taking new steps to protect civilians, but that is only a public relations exercise. The Israeli government is still using 2,000 pound and even 5,000 pound “bunker-buster” bombs to dehouse the people of Gaza and herd them toward the Egyptian border, while it debates how to push the survivors over the border into exile, which it euphemistically refers to as “voluntary emigration.”

    People throughout the Middle East are horrified by Israel’s slaughter and plans for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, but most of their governments will only condemn Israel verbally. The Houthi government in Yemen is different. Unable to directly send forces to fight for Gaza, they began enforcing a blockade of the Red Sea against Israeli-owned ships and other ships carrying goods to or from Israel. Since mid-November 2023, the Houthis have conducted about 30 attacks on international vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden but none of the attacks have caused casualties or sunk any ships.

    In response,  the Biden administration, without Congressional approval, has launched at least six rounds of bombing, including airstrikes on Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. The United Kingdom has contributed a few warplanes, while Australia, Canada, Holland and Bahrain also act as cheerleaders to provide the U.S. with the cover of leading an “international coalition.”

    President Biden has admitted that U.S. bombing will not force Yemen to lift its blockade, but he insists that the U.S. will keep attacking it anyway. Saudi Arabia dropped 70,000 mostly American (and some British) bombs on Yemen in a 7-year war, but utterly failed to defeat the Houthi government and armed forces.

    Yemenis naturally identify with the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza, and a million Yemenis took to the street to support their country’s position challenging Israel and the United States. Yemen is no Iranian puppet, but as with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran’s Iraqi and Syrian allies, Iran has trained the Yemenis to build and deploy increasingly powerful anti-ship, cruise and ballistic missiles.

    The Houthis have made it clear that they will stop the attacks once Israel stops its slaughter in Gaza. It beggars belief that instead of pressing for a ceasefire in Gaza, Biden and his clueless advisers are instead choosing to deepen U.S. military involvement in a regional Middle East conflict.

    The United States and Israel have now conducted airstrikes on the capitals of four neighboring countries: Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Iran also suspects U.S. and Israeli spy agencies of a role in two bomb explosions in Kerman in Iran, which killed about 90 people and wounded hundreds more at a commemoration of the fourth anniversary of the U.S. assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.

    On January 20, an Israeli bombing killed 10 people in Damascus, including 5 Iranian officials. After repeated Israeli airstrikes on Syria, Russia has now deployed warplanes to patrol the border to deter Israeli attacks, and has reoccupied two previously vacated outposts built to monitor violations of the demilitarized zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

    Iran has responded to the terrorist bombings in Kerman and Israeli assassinations of Iranian officials with missile strikes on targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdohallian has strongly defended Iran’s claim that the strikes on Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan targeted agents of Israel’s Mossad spy agency.

    Eleven Iranian ballistic missiles destroyed an Iraqi Kurdish intelligence facility and the home of a senior intelligence officer, and also killed a wealthy real estate developer and businessman, Peshraw Dizayee, who had been accused of working for the Mossad, as well as of smuggling Iraqi oil from Kurdistan to Israel via Turkey.

    The targets of Iran’s missile strikes in northwest Syria were the headquarters of two separate ISIS-linked groups in Idlib province. The strikes precisely hit both buildings and demolished them, at a range of 800 miles, using Iran’s newest ballistic missiles called Kheybar Shakan or Castle Blasters, a name that equates today’s U.S. bases in the Middle East with the 12th and 13th century European crusader castles whose ruins still dot the landscape.

    Iran launched its missiles, not from north-west Iran, which would have been closer to Idlib, but from Khuzestan province in south-west Iran, which is closer to Tel Aviv than to Idlib. So these missile strikes were clearly intended as a warning to Israel and the United States that Iran can conduct precise attacks on Israel and U.S. “crusader castles” in the Middle East if they continue their aggression against Palestine, Iran and their allies.

    At the same time, the U.S. has escalated its tit-for-tat airstrikes against Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. The Iraqi government has consistently protested U.S. airstrikes against the militias as violations of Iraqi sovereignty. Prime Minister Sudani’s military spokesman called the latest U.S. airstrikes “acts of aggression,” and said, “This unacceptable act undermines years of cooperation… at a time when the region is already grappling with the danger of expanding conflict, the repercussions of the aggression on Gaza.”

    After its fiascos in Afghanistan and Iraq killed thousands of U.S. troops, the United States has avoided large numbers of U.S. military casualties for ten years. The last time the U.S. lost more than a hundred troops killed in action in a year was in 2013, when 128 Americans were killed in Afghanistan.

    Since then, the United States has relied on bombing and proxy forces to fight its wars. The only lesson U.S. leaders seem to have learned from their lost wars is to avoid putting U.S. “boots on the ground.” The U.S. dropped over 120,000 bombs and missiles on Iraq and Syria in its war on ISIS, while Iraqis, Syrians and Kurds did all the hard fighting on the ground.

    In Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies found a willing proxy to fight Russia. But after two years of war, Ukrainian casualties have become unsustainable and new recruits are hard to find. The Ukrainian parliament has rejected a bill to authorize forced conscription, and no amount of U.S. weapons can persuade more Ukrainians to sacrifice their lives for a Ukrainian nationalism that treats large numbers of them, especially Russian speakers, as second class citizens.

     Now, in Gaza, Yemen and Iraq, the United States has waded into what it hoped would be another “US-casualty-free” war. Instead, the U.S.-Israeli genocide in Gaza is unleashing a crisis that is spinning out of control across the region and may soon directly involve U.S. troops in combat. This will shatter the illusion of peace Americans have lived in for the last ten years of U.S. bombing and proxy wars, and bring the reality of U.S. militarism and warmaking home with a vengeance.

    Biden can continue to give Israel carte-blanche to wipe out the people of Gaza, and watch as the region becomes further engulfed in flames, or he can listen to his own campaign staff, who warn that it’s a “moral and electoral imperative” to insist on a ceasefire. The choice could not be more stark.

    The post Biden Must Choose between a Ceasefire in Gaza and a Regional War first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies.

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    Iranian Dissidents At Home And Abroad Go On Hunger Strike To Protest Executions https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/iranian-dissidents-at-home-and-abroad-go-on-hunger-strike-to-protest-executions/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/iranian-dissidents-at-home-and-abroad-go-on-hunger-strike-to-protest-executions/#respond Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:14:21 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-dissidents-hunger-strike-protest-executions/32791833.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    U.K. And U.S. Sanction Senior Huthis Over Red Sea Shipping Attacks https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/u-k-and-u-s-sanction-senior-huthis-over-red-sea-shipping-attacks/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/u-k-and-u-s-sanction-senior-huthis-over-red-sea-shipping-attacks/#respond Thu, 25 Jan 2024 15:38:57 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/uk-us-sanction-senior-huthis-red-sea-attacks/32791791.html Ukraine and Russia have contradicted each other over whether there had been proper notification to secure the airspace around an area where a military transport plane Moscow says was carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs crashed, killing them and nine others on board.

    Russian lawmaker Andrei Kartapolov told deputies in Moscow on January 25 that Ukrainian military intelligence had been given a 15-minute warning before the Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane entered the Belgorod region in Russia, near the border with Ukraine, and that Russia had received confirmation the message was received.

    Kartapolov did not provide any evidence to back up his claim and Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov reiterated in comments to RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that it had not received either a written or verbal request to secure the airspace where the plane went down.

    Yusov said Ukraine had been using reconnaissance drones in the area and that Russia had launched attack drones. There was "no confirmed information" that Ukraine had hit any targets, he said.

    "Unfortunately, we can assume various scenarios, including provocation, as well as the use of Ukrainian prisoners as a human shield for transporting ammunition and weapons for S-300 systems," he told RFE/RL.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    There has been no direct confirmation from Kyiv on Russian claims that the plane had Ukrainian POWs on board or that the aircraft was downed by a Ukrainian antiaircraft missile.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for an international investigation of the incident, and Yusov reiterated that call, as "there are many circumstances that require investigation and maximum study."

    The RIA Novosti news agency on January 25 reported that both black boxes had been recovered from the wreckage site in Russia's Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine.

    The Investigative Committee said it had opened a criminal case into what it said was a "terrorist attack." The press service of the Investigative Committee said in a news release that preliminary data of the inspection of the scene of the incident, "allow us to conclude that the aircraft was attacked by an antiaircraft missile from the territory of Ukraine."

    The Investigative Committee said that "fragmented human remains" were found at the crash site, repeating that six crew members, military police officers, and Ukrainian POWs were on board the plane.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on January 25 called the downing of the Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane a "monstrous act," though Moscow has yet to show any evidence that it was downed by a Ukrainian missile, or that there were Ukrainian prisoners on board.

    While not saying who shot down the plane, Zelenskiy said that "all clear facts must be established...our state will insist on an international investigation."

    Ukrainian officials have said that a prisoner exchange was to have taken place on January 24 and that Russia had not informed Ukraine that Ukrainian POWs would be flown on cargo planes.

    Ukrainian military intelligence said it did not have "reliable and comprehensive information" on who was on board the flight but said the Russian POWs it was responsible for "were delivered in time to the conditional exchange point where they were safe."

    Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine's commissioner for human rights, said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that "currently, there are no signs of the fact that there were so many people on the Il-76 plane, be they citizens of Ukraine or not."

    Aviation experts told RFE/RL that it was possible a Ukrainian antiaircraft missile downed the plane but added that a Russian antiaircraft could have been responsible.

    "During the investigation, you can easily determine which system shot down the plane based on the missiles' damaging elements," said Roman Svitan, a Ukrainian reserve colonel and an aviation-instructor pilot.

    When asked about Russian claims of dozens of POWs on board, Svitan said that from the footage released so far, he'd seen no evidence to back up the statements.

    "From the footage that was there, I looked through it all, it’s not clear where there are dozens of bodies.... There's not a single body visible at all. At one time I was a military investigator, including investigating disasters; believe me, if there were seven or eight dozen people there, the field would be strewn with corpses and remains of bodies," Svitan added.

    Russian officials said the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, six crew members, and three escorts.

    A list of the six crew members who were supposed to be on the flight was obtained by RFE/RL. The deaths of three of the crew members were confirmed to RFE/RL by their relatives.

    Video on social media showed a plane spiraling to the ground, followed by a loud bang and explosion that sent a ball of smoke and flames skyward.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    U.S. Secretly Warned Iran Of Threat Within Its Borders Ahead Of Deadly Attack On Soleimani Memorial https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/u-s-secretly-warned-iran-of-threat-within-its-borders-ahead-of-deadly-attack-on-soleimani-memorial/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/u-s-secretly-warned-iran-of-threat-within-its-borders-ahead-of-deadly-attack-on-soleimani-memorial/#respond Thu, 25 Jan 2024 15:30:36 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-secretly-tipped-off-iran-deadly-islamic-state-attack/32791784.html It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

    The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

    "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

    The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

    "The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

    "These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

    On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

    With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

    The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
    The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

    The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

    On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

    "The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

    Terrorist Designation

    The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

    "They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

    But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

    The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

    Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

    The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

    "They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

    "On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

    Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

    "But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

    Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
    A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

    The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

    This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

    'Axis Of Resistance'

    The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

    But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

    While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

    The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

    "The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

    But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

    Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

    Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

    "The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

    "Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

    Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

    "So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

    A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    ‘Holding world to ransom,’ claims NZ defence minister over Yemen action https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/holding-world-to-ransom-claims-nz-defence-minister-over-yemen-action/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/25/holding-world-to-ransom-claims-nz-defence-minister-over-yemen-action/#respond Thu, 25 Jan 2024 07:35:50 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=96133

    RNZ News

    New Zealand’s defence minister has defended a decision to send six NZ Defence Force staff to the Middle East to help “take out” Houthis fighters as they are “essentially holding the world to ransom”.

    On Tuesday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins confirmed the plan at the first Cabinet meeting for the year.

    The deployment, which could run until the end of July, will support the military efforts led by the United States to protect commercial and merchant vessels.

    • LISTEN TO RNZ MORNING REPORT: ‘They are essentially holding the world to ransom’ – Defence Minister Judith Collins
    • NZDF mission in Red Sea has ‘shades of Iraq’ – Labour
    • ‘Abhorrent’ attacks must stop after 12 killed killed at Gaza civilian shelter – UN

    No NZ military staff would be entering Yemen.

    The Houthis attacks are disrupting supply lines, and forcing ships to voyage thousands of kilometres further around Africa in protest against the Israeli war on Gaza.

    But opposition parties have condemned the government’s plan, saying it had “shades of Iraq”.

    ‘Firmly on side of Western backers of Israel’
    A security analyst also said the US-requested deployment could be interpreted as New Zealand “planting its flag firmly on the side of the Western backers of Israel”.

    Speaking to RNZ Morning Report, Defence Minister Judith Collins denied it showed New Zealand being in support of Israel over the war on Gaza.

    She said it was a “very difficult situation”, but not what the deployment was about.

    “It’s about the ability to get our goods to market . . .  we’re talking about unarmed merchant vessels moving through the Red Sea no longer able to do so without being attacked.”

    Collins said New Zealand had been involved in the Middle East for a “very long time” and it needed to assist where possible to remain a good international partner and to make sure military targets were “taken out”.

    Houthis had been given a number of serious warnings, Collins said, and its actions were “outrageous”.

    “They are essentially holding the world to ransom.”

    NZ would not allow ‘pirates’
    New Zealand was part of the world community and would not stand by and allow “pirates to take over our ships or anyone’s ships”.

    Collins said she was not expecting there to be any extension or expansion of the deployment which would end on July 31.

    Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, which they say are linked to Israel, since the start of the Israel-Gaza conflict. In response, US and British forces have been carrying out strikes at different locations in Yemen, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, according to a joint statement signed by the six countries.

    The opposition Labour Party is condemning the coalition government’s deployment of Defence Force troops to the Middle East, saying it has “shades of Iraq”.

    Labour foreign affairs spokesperson David Parker made clear his party’s opposition to the deployment.

    “We don’t think we should become embroiled in that conflict . . .  which is part of a longer term civil war in Yemen and we think that New Zealand should stay out of this, there’s no UN resolution in favour of it . . . we don’t think we should get involved in a conflict in the Middle East.”

    ‘Deeply disturbing’, say Greens
    The Green Party’s co-leaders have also expressed their unhappiness with the deployment, describing it as “deeply disturbing”.

    In a statement, Marama Davidson and James Shaw said they were “horrified at this government’s decision to further inflame tensions in the Middle East”.

    “The international community has an obligation to protect peace and human rights. Right now, what we are witnessing in the Middle East is a regional power play between different state and non-state groups. This decision is only likely to inflame tensions.”

    Davidson and Shaw indicated they would call for an urgent debate on the deployment when Parliament resumes next week.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    “How dare we have a conversation about trade when there are children right now being treated without anaesthetic?”

    British journalist Myriam Francois on the Houthis blockade of shipments in the Red sea amid Israel’s war on Gaza. pic.twitter.com/Yg9RV2ek4p

    — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) January 24, 2024


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Toward the Abyss https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/toward-the-abyss/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/toward-the-abyss/#respond Wed, 24 Jan 2024 18:36:04 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=147695 One word characterizes United States foreign policy – counterproductive. Major U.S. foreign policy decisions after World War II — Vietnam War, Lebanon intrusion, Somalia incursion, Afghan/Soviet War, Afghan occupation, Iraq War, support for Shah of Iran, and Libyan Wars — have been counterproductive, not resolving situations and eventually harming the American people. The one-sided relationship […]

    The post Toward the Abyss first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    One word characterizes United States foreign policy – counterproductive.

    Major U.S. foreign policy decisions after World War II — Vietnam War, Lebanon intrusion, Somalia incursion, Afghan/Soviet War, Afghan occupation, Iraq War, support for Shah of Iran, and Libyan Wars — have been counterproductive, not resolving situations and eventually harming the American people. The one-sided relationship the United States has with Israel is another counterproductive policy that is harmful to the American public

    Persistent attention to Israel and its dubious position in the world may seem overkill, except this attention is one of the most important, mortally affecting the U.S. public. Until a complete report of fatal relations with Israel is placed on the desks of U.S. congresspersons and they act positively upon the contents, attention to the issue is incomplete and peril continues. Surveying U.S. policies that favored Israel collects a horrendous list of American fatalities, economic havoc, international terrorism, political misalignment, hatred, and aggression against fortress America.

    Two questions. How have the expensive arrangements, Velcro attachments, and highly supportive measures for Israel benefitted the United States? What has Israel done for Americans, not for American politicians, but for those who vote them into office? A convenient means for obtaining the answer is to have a leading “think tank” in the United States supply the information. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which “seeks to advance a balanced and realistic understanding of American interests in the Middle East and to promote the policies that secure them” has a 2012 article on the topic, “Friends with Benefits: Why the U.S.-Israeli Alliance Is Good for America,” by Michael Eisenstadt and David Pollock, Nov 7, 2012, and is a likely source. Some of its major recommendations:

    U.S.-Israeli security cooperation dates back to heights of the Cold War, when the Jewish state came to be seen in Washington as a bulwark against Soviet influence in the Middle East and a counter to Arab nationalism….Israel remains a counterweight against radical forces in the Middle East, including political Islam and violent extremism. It has prevented the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the region by thwarting Iraq and Syria’s nuclear programs.

    (1) The reason the Soviet Union acquired influence in the Middle East was Washington’s refusal to sell arms to the Arab nations, while “indirectly supplying weapons to Israel via West Germany, under the terms of a 1960 secret agreement to supply Israel with $80 million worth of armaments.“ Less secret deliveries of MIM-23 Hawk anti-aircraft missiles in 1962 and M48 Patton tanks in 1965 told the Arab nations they could not collaborate with a government that armed their principal adversary and they should seek military assistance elsewhere.
    (2) Arab nationalism has developed, and developed, and developed; so, how did Israel counter Arab nationalism? Did Israel stimulate Arab nationalism?
    (3) What has Israel done to protect others as a “counterweight against radical forces in the Middle East, including political Islam and violent extremism?” The answer is nothing. Radical forces, political Islam, and violent extremism emerged immediately after Israel’s formation and grew, and grew, as Israel grew.
    (4) Iraq and Syria sought nuclear weapons to counter Israel’s nuclear weapons developments, which the U.S. could have and should have prevented. No nukes in Israel; no nukes in Syria or Iraq. Why did the U.S., dedicated to preventing nuclear proliferation, allow Israel to obtain the atomic bomb?

    Dozens of leading U.S. companies have set up technology incubators in Israel to take advantage of the country’s penchant for new ideas. In 2011, Israel was the destination of 25 percent of all U.S. exports to the region, having recently eclipsed Saudi Arabia as the top market there for American products.

    (1) U.S. companies have subsidiaries worldwide and hire talent in all nations. What’s significant about Israel?
    (2) “In 2011, Israel was the destination of 25 percent of all U.S. exports to the region…” Was that good? In 2022, U.S. exports to Israel were $20.0 billion and imports were $30.6 billion, adding $10.7 billion to Washington’s trade deficit, not a good economic statistic. Without Israel’s trade, the U.S. exported $83 billion in goods and services to Middle East nations and had a trade surplus of $5.3 billion, a better statistic.

    U.S. companies’ substantial cooperation with Israel on information technology has been crucial to Silicon Valley’s success. At Intel’s research and development centers in Israel, engineers have designed many of the company’s most successful microprocessors, accounting for some 40 percent of the firm’s revenues last year. If you’ve made a secure financial transaction on the Internet, sent an instant message, or bought something using PayPal, you can thank Israeli  researchers.

    These bites of public relations win the all-time Pinocchio award. Is The Washington Institute a legitimate “think tank” or a covert lobby?

    (1)    “Israel has been crucial to Silicon Valley’s success.” Next, we’ll hear that Moses received the Ten Commandments on Mt. Whitney.
    (2)    “At Intel’s research and development centers in Israel, engineers have designed many of the company’s most successful microprocessors, accounting for some 40 percent of the firm’s revenues last year.” Intel has 131,000 employees in 65 countries — 11,000 in Israel, 12,000 in China, and approximately 7,500 employees at its 360-acre Leixlip campus in Ireland. The company develops the processors, not the country or specific engineers; it can develop the same processors anywhere in the world and has capably developed its major microprocessors for 45 years in the good old United States of America.
    (3)    “If you’ve made a secure financial transaction on the Internet, sent an instant message, or bought something using PayPal, you can thank Israeli researchers.” Another Pinocchio award. Let’s be more accurate: “If you’ve been scammed in a financial transaction, had your messages hacked, or had someone purchase an item with your PayPal account, thank Israeli researchers.”

    In its one-sided presentation, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy does not show the U.S.-Israeli alliance is good for America. The Institute has not considered the other side, the harm that Israel has visited upon its most essential partner. Reality shows the U.S. government and its people have dealt with Israel in a suicidal manner and in a zero-sum game, where the U.S. is the “zero,” or actually minus, and Israel receives the sum of all the benefits.

    Recognition of Israel

    From its inception, Israel betrayed the United States and the U.S. betrayed its commitment to a just and peaceful post-WWII world. President Harry S. Truman’s recognition of the new state, only 11 minutes after its declaration, did not consider its composition, signified a pardon of the excesses committed by Irgun and Haganah militias against civilian populations, and certified the exclusion of a Palestinian voice in the new government. Truman never asked who represented the 400,000 indigenous Palestinians in the declared Israeli state that was almost equal in population to the 600,000 Jews, most of whom were recent immigrants and not decidedly permanent.

    Suez Canal War

    Several years later Israel again betrayed its principal benefactor. While President Eisenhower attempted to broker a peace agreement between Egypt and France and Great Britain that would resolve the crisis emerging from Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s nationalization of the Suez Canal, Israel held secret consultations with the British and French. Considering Nasser a threat to its security, desirous of incorporating the Sinai into its small nation, and with a plan to extend Israel to the Litani River in Lebanon, Israel devised a strategy with the two European powers that permitted its forces to invade Egypt and advance to within 10 miles of the Suez Canal. Pretending to protect the vital artery, Britain and France parachuted troops close to the canal. An enraged Eisenhower threatened all three nations with economic sanctions, which succeeded in having all three militaries withdraw their forces and relinquish control of the canal to Egypt.

    Six-Day War

    The six-day war brought the first American blood in the U.S. commitment to Israel. On June 8, 1967, Israeli warplanes and torpedo boats attacked the USS Liberty, an intelligence-gathering vessel patrolling in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, 17 nautical miles off the northern Sinai coast. The crew suffered thirty-four (34) killed and one hundred seventy-three (173) wounded. A declassified Top Secret report details the CIA version of the attack and exonerates Israel by claiming mistaken identity. This has not satisfied USS Liberty survivors, who felt Israeli pilots had many opportunities for proper identification and performed the attacks to prevent the ship from obtaining important intelligence information.

    1973 Yom Kippur War

    Next came the 1973 Yom Kippur War and an economic catastrophe for the American people. The U.S. maintained it needed Israel to offset Soviet influence in the Arab world. The combined Egyptian and Syrian attempt to retake lands lost in the 1967 war prompted the Nixon administration to use taxpayer money and supply massive shipments of weapons to the beleaguered Israel state. An excuse for providing the armaments shipments ─ Israel might use the Samson option and nuke its adversaries ─ is regarded as a manipulation to pacify opponents of the arms deliveries. The controversy is reported in Wikipedia.

    Dayan raised the nuclear topic in a cabinet meeting, warning that the country was approaching a point of “last resort.” That night, Meir authorized the assembly of thirteen 20-kiloton-of-TNT(84 TJ) tactical nuclear weapons for Jericho missiles at Sdot Micha Airbase and F-4 Phantom II aircraft at Tel Nof Airbase. They would be used if absolutely necessary to prevent total defeat, but the preparation was done in an easily detectable way, likely as a signal to the United States. Kissinger learned of the nuclear alert on the morning of 9 October. That day, President Nixon ordered the commencement of Operation Nickel Grass, an American airlift to replace all of Israel’s material losses.

    The U.S. contribution in enabling Israel to achieve a decisive victory resulted in an oil embargo that drove up oil prices, set Americans into a frantic rampage in trying to keep their cars on the road, a stagnant economy, and huge inflation, which the Federal Reserve stopped by raising interest rates to record highs and led to the 1982 recession.

    Lebanon War

    Despite a truce with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and wanting to rid Lebanon of the PLO and Syrian dominance in Lebanon affairs, Israel used a failed assassination of Shlomo Argov, Israel’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, as an excuse to invade Lebanon on June 6, 1982. Where Israel went, U.S. diplomacy was sure to follow, and the U.S. joined a multinational peacekeeping force.

    U.S. presence in Lebanon had detractors. On April 18, 1983, a car bomb destroyed the U.S. embassy in West Beirut, killing dozens of American foreign service workers and Lebanese civilians. On October 23, 1983,  after U.S. gunships in the Mediterranean shelled Syrian-backed Druze militias in support of the Christian government, a truck crashed through the front gates of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut and exploded. Beirut barracks were destroyed and 241 marines and sailors were killed in the explosion. Soon after, President Reagan withdrew all U.S. forces from Lebanon.

    International Terrorism

    For several decades, al-Qaeda, the most prominent international terrorist organization, posed the most serious threat to America’s peace and stability. On August 7, 1998, al-Qaeda associates bombed the American embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in Africa. Twelve Americans were among the two hundred and twenty-four people who died in the terrorist actions. Three years later, the September 11 attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C. caused 2,750 deaths in New York and 184 at the Pentagon. Forty more Americans died when one of the hijacked planes crashed into the ground in Pennsylvania. In addition, 400 police officers and firefighters perished in attempts to rescue people and extinguish the fires at the New York Trade Center.

    Where did it all start? Why, and how did master terrorist Osama bin Laden develop his plans? There is no one factor, but, in several documents, bin Landen mentions Zionist control of Middle East lands and its oppression of an Arab population as significant factors. America’s support for Israel was one of bin Laden‘s principal arguments with the United States. The al-Qaeda leader revealed his attitude in the last sentences of a “Letter to America.”

    Justice is the strongest army, and security is the best way of life, but it slipped out of your grasp the day you made the Jews victorious in occupying our land and killing our brothers in Palestine. The path to security is for you to lift your oppression from us.

    During the 1990s, two other documents,“Declaration of War against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places” and the “Declaration of the World Islamic Front,” retrieved from Osama bin Laden, jihad, and the sources of international terrorism, J. M. B. Porter, Indiana International & Comparative Law Review, provide additional information on bin-Laden’s attachment of his terrorist responses to Zionist activities.

    [T]he people of Islam have suffered from aggression, iniquity, and injustice imposed on them by the Zionist/Crusader alliance … Their blood was spilled in Palestine and Iraq. The horrifying pictures of the massacre of Qana, in Lebanon, are still fresh in our memory.

    So now they come to annihilate … this people and to humiliate their Muslim neighbors. … if the Americans’ aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews’ petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there. The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion and weakness to guarantee Israel’s survival and the continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the Peninsula.

    Afghanistan

    The hunt for Osama bin Laden and efforts to annihilate the al-Qaeda organization led to the invasion of Afghanistan and a twenty-year clash between the U.S. and the Taliban. Result: 2,402 United States military deaths, 20,713 American service members wounded, and Taliban regaining control.

    Iraq

    It’s difficult and punishing to agree with Osama bin Laden, but he may be correct or have a perspective that needs more examination. Did Bush order the invasion of Iraq to destroy Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, which any child could ascertain he could not possibly have, or did the Neocons, Israel’s voice in the administration, convince him to use Americans, their resources, and their money to rid the Middle East of Israel’s most formidable enemy? Was George W. Bush’s uncalled-for war against Saddam Hussein in Iraq another example of sacrificing U.S. lives to advance Israel’s interests? Other international terrorist operations emerged during the Iraq war and brought U.S. military personnel into more battles. Finally, in 2019, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the best-equipped and largest of all the terrorist factions, which caused havoc in Syria and Iraq, was defeated, and international terrorism moved out of the Middle East and into parts of Africa.

    Iran

    It is taken for granted that Iran and the United States are natural enemies, except the hostility may be manufactured and the factory might be in Tel Aviv. Iran has a government and internal problems that disturb the U.S., but so do many other nations, especially Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. maintains relations with these nations. Confrontations have occurred and are escalating and that demands toning down rather than ratcheting up, and more diplomatic confrontations to prevent the physical confrontations. Sanctions that harm Iran’s economy and people, assistance to Israel in assassinating Iranian scientists, and use of the powerful computer worm, Stuxnet, to cause mayhem in Iran’s nuclear program are counterproductive provocations. The U.S. has no specific problem with Iran that cannot be ameliorated. Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians and incursions into the Haram al-Sharif are problems that Iran has with Israel, and they cannot be ameliorated until the oppression stops. Cunningly, Israel has tied its problems with the Islamic State to U.S. problems with Iran and uses the U.S. to challenge Iran.

    Other

    ·         In defiance of U.S. restrictions and the U.S. supplying Israel with advanced military equipment, Israeli companies sold weapons to China without a permit.

    ·         The U.S. gives Israel the sum of $3.1 B every year to purchase advanced weapons, from which Israel became a major exporter of military equipment and has been able to compete effectively with its patron.

    ·          Israeli governments have scoffed at all U.S. entreaties to halt settlement expansion, even insulting then Vice-President Joe Biden by authorizing settlement expansion one day before Biden arrived for talks.

    ·         Two Navy SEALs are missing and assumed dead after a maritime operation to intercept weapons from Iran heading to Houthi fighters. This episode is a result of the U.S. participating in Israel’s war against Gaza.

    ·         The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has been attacking air bases housing U.S. and Iraqi troops in western Iraq “as a part of a broad resistance to the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, as well as a response to Israel’s operations in Gaza.”

    Toward the Abyss

    The verdict is clear; the United States derives no benefit from its close relationship with Israel. Maybe, during the confusing Cold War, desk strategists determined the Soviets had an influence with Middle Eastern nations and thought it wise to have a place where the Pentagon would be welcome. Soviet influence disappeared after the 1979 Camp David Accords; Egypt and Israel signed a peace agreement and Soviet diplomats and military vanished from the desert sands.

    From September 11, 2001, to October 7, 2023, the U.S. continually suffered fatalities, economic havoc, international terrorism, political misalignment, hatred, and aggression against Fortress America. Why did U.S. administrations pursue a “special relationship” with Israel and find themselves victims of the “war on terror” and involved in numerous wars? The current U.S. administration, which did not use its clout to prevent the October 7, 2023 attack in Israel, has permitted Israel’s self-inflicted problems to bring the U.S. people into supporting the genocide of the Palestinian people, promoting the U.S. as the leading killer of indigenous peoples.

    It took a long time to turn the murmurs of genocide in Palestine into a forceful expression that others would accept and fearlessly repeat. Murmurs of sabotage and treason by elected government officials are being heard, but they are legal terms for crimes, and, legally, U.S. legislators’ activities may not be considered in those categories. Treachery is a better word, gaining federal office by treacherous means — pandering to those that represent the interests of a foreign power to obtain campaign funds and press coverage — and using that office to satisfy the wants of the foreign power, despite the damage done to American constituencies. Past and present U.S. executives and legislators are guilty of treachery and that word should be shouted in the halls of Congress. Sound the alarm, get them out before it is too late, and elect into office those who represent the American people and not a foreign government. MAGA – MAKE AMERICA GOOD AGAIN.

    Aiding the genocide has put the U.S. in severe moral decline; escalating internal divisions are leading to social and political decline; and an economy that can no longer compete in the international markets, together with increasing resistance to use of the dollar, is leading to economic decline. The signs of civil strife have yet to appear and when they do they will push the U.S. off the edge of the cliff and into the abyss.

    The post Toward the Abyss first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Iran Bars Former President Rohani From Running In Key Election https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/iran-bars-former-president-rohani-from-running-in-key-election/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/iran-bars-former-president-rohani-from-running-in-key-election/#respond Wed, 24 Jan 2024 15:06:37 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-bars-rohani-running-election/32790185.html Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan have raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region amid growing fears the upheaval sweeping across the Middle East could spread.

    Since the tit-for-tat strikes on January 16 and 18 against militant and separatist groups, Islamabad and Tehran have signaled they want to de-escalate the situation and that their foreign ministers will hold talks in Pakistan on January 29.

    But the attacks have exposed the fine line between peace and conflict in the region and put the spotlight on China, a close partner of both countries, to see if it can use its sway to ramp down tensions and avoid a conflict that would jeopardize Beijing's economic and geopolitical interests in the region.

    "For China, the stakes are high and they really can't afford for things to get any worse between Iran and Pakistan," Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told RFE/RL.

    China has tens of billions of dollars of investments in Iran and Pakistan and both countries are high-level partners that benefit from Chinese political and economic support.

    Following the missile-strike exchange, China's Foreign Ministry called for calm and said it would "play a constructive role in cooling down the situation," without giving details.

    Beijing is now expected to step up its engagement to head off another crisis in the region, in what analysts say is yet another test for China's influence after recently hitting its limit with the war in Gaza, shipping attacks in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Huthi militants, and the growing instability across the Middle East these events have caused.

    "We're yet to see anything really concrete where China has stepped in to solve an international crisis," Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL. "[But] China has a reputational image at stake where it's presenting itself as the alternative to the United States, even though assumptions about how powerful it really is in the Middle East are now being scrutinized."

    What's Going On Between Iran And Pakistan?

    The Iranian strikes in Pakistan were part of a series of similar attacks launched by Iran that also hit targets in Iraq and Syria.

    In Pakistan, Tehran said it was targeting the Sunni separatist group Jaish al-Adl with drones and missiles in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan Province. Jaish al-Adl operates mostly in Iran's southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan Province but is also suspected to be in neighboring Pakistan. The group claimed responsibility for a December 15 attack on a police station in southeastern Iran that killed 11 officers.

    In response, Islamabad said its military conducted air strikes in Sistan-Baluchistan targeting the Baloch Liberation Front and the Baloch Liberation Army, two separatist groups believed to be hiding in Iran.

    The exchange of strikes was followed by Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Iran and blocking Tehran's ambassador to Islamabad from returning to his post.

    On January 21, the Counterterrorism Department in Pakistan's southwestern Sindh Province announced it had arrested a suspect in a 2019 assassination attempt on a top Pakistani cleric who is a member of the Zainebiyoun Brigade, a militant group allegedly backed by Iran.

    But since the strikes on each other's territory, Iran and Pakistan have cooled their rhetoric and signaled that they intend to de-escalate, echoing sentiment through official statements that the neighbors are "brotherly countries" that should pursue dialogue and cooperation.

    People gather near rubble in the aftermath of Pakistan's military strike on an Iranian village in Sistan-Baluchistan Province on January 18.
    People gather near rubble in the aftermath of Pakistan's military strike on an Iranian village in Sistan-Baluchistan Province on January 18.

    Basit says this stems largely from the fact that the countries see themselves spread too thin in dealing with a host of pressing foreign and domestic issues.

    Tehran has grappled with a series of attacks across the country, including a January 3 twin bombing that killed more than 90 people, and is engaged across the region directly or through groups that it backed such as Yemen's Huthis and Lebanon's Hizballah.

    The tit-for-tat attacks, meanwhile, come as Pakistan is embroiled in an economic crisis and prepares to hold high-stakes elections on February 8, the first since former Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed in a vote of no confidence in April 2021, setting off years of escalating political turmoil.

    "Between the economy, elections, and always-present tensions with India that could grow, Pakistan simply can't afford another front," Basit said.

    Islamabad and Tehran are now pushing to cool down the situation, though Basit adds that the situation remains tense. "There is peace and calm now, but the animosity is ongoing," he said.

    How Much Leverage Does China Have?

    Following a week of tensions, China has leverage to push for a diplomatic settlement to the dispute, although experts say Beijing may be reluctant to intervene too publicly.

    "China looks to be quite measured here in its response and that raises some questions about where China stands in using its influence," Basit said. "China knows it can influence the situation, but Beijing also usually shies away from situations like this because they worry that if they try and fail, then the West will look at it differently."

    Beijing raised expectations in March 2023 it would play a larger political role in the Middle East when it brokered a historic deal between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    Wang Yi holds up a March 2023 deal in Beijing with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani (right) and Saudi State Minister Musaad bin Muhammad al-Aiban (left).
    Wang Yi holds up a March 2023 deal in Beijing with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani (right) and Saudi State Minister Musaad bin Muhammad al-Aiban (left).

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, says China's willingness to be a mediator shouldn't be underplayed. "It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves," he told RFE/RL. "But China was willing to do the Iran-Saudi deal, which is a more fraught relationship to get involved in. So, they might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed."

    China also holds other cards if it needs to calm the situation between Iran and Pakistan.

    As China's "iron brother," Islamabad has a close partnership with Beijing, with cooperation ranging from economic investment to defense. Pakistan is the largest buyer of Chinese weapons and is also home to the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship series of infrastructure projects within China's Belt and Road Initiative.

    CPEC is part of Beijing's efforts to connect itself to the Arabian Sea and build stronger trade networks with the Middle East.

    A centerpiece of the venture is developing the port of Gwadar in Balochistan, which would strengthen shipping lanes to the region, particularly for energy shipments from Iran.

    For Tehran, China is a top buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil, and Beijing signed a sprawling 25-year economic and security agreement with Iran in 2021.

    Arho Havren says that given both Iran and Pakistan's economic dependence on China, Beijing will do all it can, should tensions rise, but will likely do so behind the scenes. "China [is unlikely] to take a stronger public stake in the conflict, but will instead use its back-channels," Arho Havren said.

    What Comes Next?

    While the situation between Iran and Pakistan is moving towards de-escalation, the recent tensions highlight the often tenuous footing of regional rivalries that China's ambitions to lead the Global South rest upon.

    Both Pakistan and Iran are members of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which also includes India, Russia, and Central Asia (minus Turkmenistan). The SCO has been an important part of Beijing's bid for leadership across parts of Asia and the Middle East while looking to bring together countries to work together on economic and security issues.

    China has invested in growing the bloc and is in discussion to add more countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Belarus, but further conflict between its members could derail those moves and damage the SCO's credibility.

    Arho Havren says Beijing will still have to grapple with the lack of trust between Islamabad and Tehran and is facing similar issues elsewhere in the Middle East as it walks a tightrope between simultaneously raising its international influence and limiting any diplomatic exposure that could hurt its reputation.

    "Cooperation may be easy, but the relations between the countries in the region are complex, and China's journey [in the Middle East] is still in its beginning," she said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/iran-bars-former-president-rohani-from-running-in-key-election/feed/ 0 454618
    Human Rights Watch Says 11 At ‘Imminent Risk’ Of Execution In Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/human-rights-watch-says-11-at-imminent-risk-of-execution-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/human-rights-watch-says-11-at-imminent-risk-of-execution-in-iran/#respond Wed, 24 Jan 2024 13:20:46 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-11-imminent-execution-human-rights-watch-hrw/32790052.html Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan have raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region amid growing fears the upheaval sweeping across the Middle East could spread.

    Since the tit-for-tat strikes on January 16 and 18 against militant and separatist groups, Islamabad and Tehran have signaled they want to de-escalate the situation and that their foreign ministers will hold talks in Pakistan on January 29.

    But the attacks have exposed the fine line between peace and conflict in the region and put the spotlight on China, a close partner of both countries, to see if it can use its sway to ramp down tensions and avoid a conflict that would jeopardize Beijing's economic and geopolitical interests in the region.

    "For China, the stakes are high and they really can't afford for things to get any worse between Iran and Pakistan," Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told RFE/RL.

    China has tens of billions of dollars of investments in Iran and Pakistan and both countries are high-level partners that benefit from Chinese political and economic support.

    Following the missile-strike exchange, China's Foreign Ministry called for calm and said it would "play a constructive role in cooling down the situation," without giving details.

    Beijing is now expected to step up its engagement to head off another crisis in the region, in what analysts say is yet another test for China's influence after recently hitting its limit with the war in Gaza, shipping attacks in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Huthi militants, and the growing instability across the Middle East these events have caused.

    "We're yet to see anything really concrete where China has stepped in to solve an international crisis," Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL. "[But] China has a reputational image at stake where it's presenting itself as the alternative to the United States, even though assumptions about how powerful it really is in the Middle East are now being scrutinized."

    What's Going On Between Iran And Pakistan?

    The Iranian strikes in Pakistan were part of a series of similar attacks launched by Iran that also hit targets in Iraq and Syria.

    In Pakistan, Tehran said it was targeting the Sunni separatist group Jaish al-Adl with drones and missiles in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan Province. Jaish al-Adl operates mostly in Iran's southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan Province but is also suspected to be in neighboring Pakistan. The group claimed responsibility for a December 15 attack on a police station in southeastern Iran that killed 11 officers.

    In response, Islamabad said its military conducted air strikes in Sistan-Baluchistan targeting the Baloch Liberation Front and the Baloch Liberation Army, two separatist groups believed to be hiding in Iran.

    The exchange of strikes was followed by Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Iran and blocking Tehran's ambassador to Islamabad from returning to his post.

    On January 21, the Counterterrorism Department in Pakistan's southwestern Sindh Province announced it had arrested a suspect in a 2019 assassination attempt on a top Pakistani cleric who is a member of the Zainebiyoun Brigade, a militant group allegedly backed by Iran.

    But since the strikes on each other's territory, Iran and Pakistan have cooled their rhetoric and signaled that they intend to de-escalate, echoing sentiment through official statements that the neighbors are "brotherly countries" that should pursue dialogue and cooperation.

    People gather near rubble in the aftermath of Pakistan's military strike on an Iranian village in Sistan-Baluchistan Province on January 18.
    People gather near rubble in the aftermath of Pakistan's military strike on an Iranian village in Sistan-Baluchistan Province on January 18.

    Basit says this stems largely from the fact that the countries see themselves spread too thin in dealing with a host of pressing foreign and domestic issues.

    Tehran has grappled with a series of attacks across the country, including a January 3 twin bombing that killed more than 90 people, and is engaged across the region directly or through groups that it backed such as Yemen's Huthis and Lebanon's Hizballah.

    The tit-for-tat attacks, meanwhile, come as Pakistan is embroiled in an economic crisis and prepares to hold high-stakes elections on February 8, the first since former Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed in a vote of no confidence in April 2021, setting off years of escalating political turmoil.

    "Between the economy, elections, and always-present tensions with India that could grow, Pakistan simply can't afford another front," Basit said.

    Islamabad and Tehran are now pushing to cool down the situation, though Basit adds that the situation remains tense. "There is peace and calm now, but the animosity is ongoing," he said.

    How Much Leverage Does China Have?

    Following a week of tensions, China has leverage to push for a diplomatic settlement to the dispute, although experts say Beijing may be reluctant to intervene too publicly.

    "China looks to be quite measured here in its response and that raises some questions about where China stands in using its influence," Basit said. "China knows it can influence the situation, but Beijing also usually shies away from situations like this because they worry that if they try and fail, then the West will look at it differently."

    Beijing raised expectations in March 2023 it would play a larger political role in the Middle East when it brokered a historic deal between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    Wang Yi holds up a March 2023 deal in Beijing with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani (right) and Saudi State Minister Musaad bin Muhammad al-Aiban (left).
    Wang Yi holds up a March 2023 deal in Beijing with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani (right) and Saudi State Minister Musaad bin Muhammad al-Aiban (left).

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, says China's willingness to be a mediator shouldn't be underplayed. "It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves," he told RFE/RL. "But China was willing to do the Iran-Saudi deal, which is a more fraught relationship to get involved in. So, they might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed."

    China also holds other cards if it needs to calm the situation between Iran and Pakistan.

    As China's "iron brother," Islamabad has a close partnership with Beijing, with cooperation ranging from economic investment to defense. Pakistan is the largest buyer of Chinese weapons and is also home to the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship series of infrastructure projects within China's Belt and Road Initiative.

    CPEC is part of Beijing's efforts to connect itself to the Arabian Sea and build stronger trade networks with the Middle East.

    A centerpiece of the venture is developing the port of Gwadar in Balochistan, which would strengthen shipping lanes to the region, particularly for energy shipments from Iran.

    For Tehran, China is a top buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil, and Beijing signed a sprawling 25-year economic and security agreement with Iran in 2021.

    Arho Havren says that given both Iran and Pakistan's economic dependence on China, Beijing will do all it can, should tensions rise, but will likely do so behind the scenes. "China [is unlikely] to take a stronger public stake in the conflict, but will instead use its back-channels," Arho Havren said.

    What Comes Next?

    While the situation between Iran and Pakistan is moving towards de-escalation, the recent tensions highlight the often tenuous footing of regional rivalries that China's ambitions to lead the Global South rest upon.

    Both Pakistan and Iran are members of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which also includes India, Russia, and Central Asia (minus Turkmenistan). The SCO has been an important part of Beijing's bid for leadership across parts of Asia and the Middle East while looking to bring together countries to work together on economic and security issues.

    China has invested in growing the bloc and is in discussion to add more countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Belarus, but further conflict between its members could derail those moves and damage the SCO's credibility.

    Arho Havren says Beijing will still have to grapple with the lack of trust between Islamabad and Tehran and is facing similar issues elsewhere in the Middle East as it walks a tightrope between simultaneously raising its international influence and limiting any diplomatic exposure that could hurt its reputation.

    "Cooperation may be easy, but the relations between the countries in the region are complex, and China's journey [in the Middle East] is still in its beginning," she said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/24/human-rights-watch-says-11-at-imminent-risk-of-execution-in-iran/feed/ 0 454707
    Iranian Convicted Of Killing Policeman in 2022 Protests Executed https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/23/iranian-convicted-of-killing-policeman-in-2022-protests-executed/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/23/iranian-convicted-of-killing-policeman-in-2022-protests-executed/#respond Tue, 23 Jan 2024 10:39:07 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-execution-protests-police-killing/32788218.html Air strikes and diplomatic sparring between Iran and Pakistan have raised difficult questions for China and its influence in the region amid growing fears the upheaval sweeping across the Middle East could spread.

    Since the tit-for-tat strikes on January 16 and 18 against militant and separatist groups, Islamabad and Tehran have signaled they want to de-escalate the situation and that their foreign ministers will hold talks in Pakistan on January 29.

    But the attacks have exposed the fine line between peace and conflict in the region and put the spotlight on China, a close partner of both countries, to see if it can use its sway to ramp down tensions and avoid a conflict that would jeopardize Beijing's economic and geopolitical interests in the region.

    "For China, the stakes are high and they really can't afford for things to get any worse between Iran and Pakistan," Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told RFE/RL.

    China has tens of billions of dollars of investments in Iran and Pakistan and both countries are high-level partners that benefit from Chinese political and economic support.

    Following the missile-strike exchange, China's Foreign Ministry called for calm and said it would "play a constructive role in cooling down the situation," without giving details.

    Beijing is now expected to step up its engagement to head off another crisis in the region, in what analysts say is yet another test for China's influence after recently hitting its limit with the war in Gaza, shipping attacks in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Huthi militants, and the growing instability across the Middle East these events have caused.

    "We're yet to see anything really concrete where China has stepped in to solve an international crisis," Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL. "[But] China has a reputational image at stake where it's presenting itself as the alternative to the United States, even though assumptions about how powerful it really is in the Middle East are now being scrutinized."

    What's Going On Between Iran And Pakistan?

    The Iranian strikes in Pakistan were part of a series of similar attacks launched by Iran that also hit targets in Iraq and Syria.

    In Pakistan, Tehran said it was targeting the Sunni separatist group Jaish al-Adl with drones and missiles in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan Province. Jaish al-Adl operates mostly in Iran's southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan Province but is also suspected to be in neighboring Pakistan. The group claimed responsibility for a December 15 attack on a police station in southeastern Iran that killed 11 officers.

    In response, Islamabad said its military conducted air strikes in Sistan-Baluchistan targeting the Baloch Liberation Front and the Baloch Liberation Army, two separatist groups believed to be hiding in Iran.

    The exchange of strikes was followed by Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Iran and blocking Tehran's ambassador to Islamabad from returning to his post.

    On January 21, the Counterterrorism Department in Pakistan's southwestern Sindh Province announced it had arrested a suspect in a 2019 assassination attempt on a top Pakistani cleric who is a member of the Zainebiyoun Brigade, a militant group allegedly backed by Iran.

    But since the strikes on each other's territory, Iran and Pakistan have cooled their rhetoric and signaled that they intend to de-escalate, echoing sentiment through official statements that the neighbors are "brotherly countries" that should pursue dialogue and cooperation.

    People gather near rubble in the aftermath of Pakistan's military strike on an Iranian village in Sistan-Baluchistan Province on January 18.
    People gather near rubble in the aftermath of Pakistan's military strike on an Iranian village in Sistan-Baluchistan Province on January 18.

    Basit says this stems largely from the fact that the countries see themselves spread too thin in dealing with a host of pressing foreign and domestic issues.

    Tehran has grappled with a series of attacks across the country, including a January 3 twin bombing that killed more than 90 people, and is engaged across the region directly or through groups that it backed such as Yemen's Huthis and Lebanon's Hizballah.

    The tit-for-tat attacks, meanwhile, come as Pakistan is embroiled in an economic crisis and prepares to hold high-stakes elections on February 8, the first since former Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed in a vote of no confidence in April 2021, setting off years of escalating political turmoil.

    "Between the economy, elections, and always-present tensions with India that could grow, Pakistan simply can't afford another front," Basit said.

    Islamabad and Tehran are now pushing to cool down the situation, though Basit adds that the situation remains tense. "There is peace and calm now, but the animosity is ongoing," he said.

    How Much Leverage Does China Have?

    Following a week of tensions, China has leverage to push for a diplomatic settlement to the dispute, although experts say Beijing may be reluctant to intervene too publicly.

    "China looks to be quite measured here in its response and that raises some questions about where China stands in using its influence," Basit said. "China knows it can influence the situation, but Beijing also usually shies away from situations like this because they worry that if they try and fail, then the West will look at it differently."

    Beijing raised expectations in March 2023 it would play a larger political role in the Middle East when it brokered a historic deal between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    Wang Yi holds up a March 2023 deal in Beijing with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani (right) and Saudi State Minister Musaad bin Muhammad al-Aiban (left).
    Wang Yi holds up a March 2023 deal in Beijing with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani (right) and Saudi State Minister Musaad bin Muhammad al-Aiban (left).

    Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center's South Asia Institute, says China's willingness to be a mediator shouldn't be underplayed. "It looks like the Pakistanis and the Iranians had enough in their relationship to ease tensions themselves," he told RFE/RL. "But China was willing to do the Iran-Saudi deal, which is a more fraught relationship to get involved in. So, they might be relieved now, but that doesn't mean they won't step up if needed."

    China also holds other cards if it needs to calm the situation between Iran and Pakistan.

    As China's "iron brother," Islamabad has a close partnership with Beijing, with cooperation ranging from economic investment to defense. Pakistan is the largest buyer of Chinese weapons and is also home to the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship series of infrastructure projects within China's Belt and Road Initiative.

    CPEC is part of Beijing's efforts to connect itself to the Arabian Sea and build stronger trade networks with the Middle East.

    A centerpiece of the venture is developing the port of Gwadar in Balochistan, which would strengthen shipping lanes to the region, particularly for energy shipments from Iran.

    For Tehran, China is a top buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil, and Beijing signed a sprawling 25-year economic and security agreement with Iran in 2021.

    Arho Havren says that given both Iran and Pakistan's economic dependence on China, Beijing will do all it can, should tensions rise, but will likely do so behind the scenes. "China [is unlikely] to take a stronger public stake in the conflict, but will instead use its back-channels," Arho Havren said.

    What Comes Next?

    While the situation between Iran and Pakistan is moving towards de-escalation, the recent tensions highlight the often tenuous footing of regional rivalries that China's ambitions to lead the Global South rest upon.

    Both Pakistan and Iran are members of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which also includes India, Russia, and Central Asia (minus Turkmenistan). The SCO has been an important part of Beijing's bid for leadership across parts of Asia and the Middle East while looking to bring together countries to work together on economic and security issues.

    China has invested in growing the bloc and is in discussion to add more countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Belarus, but further conflict between its members could derail those moves and damage the SCO's credibility.

    Arho Havren says Beijing will still have to grapple with the lack of trust between Islamabad and Tehran and is facing similar issues elsewhere in the Middle East as it walks a tightrope between simultaneously raising its international influence and limiting any diplomatic exposure that could hurt its reputation.

    "Cooperation may be easy, but the relations between the countries in the region are complex, and China's journey [in the Middle East] is still in its beginning," she said.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/23/iranian-convicted-of-killing-policeman-in-2022-protests-executed/feed/ 0 454437
    U.S., U.K. Launch New Strikes On Multiple Huthi Sites In Yemen https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/23/u-s-u-k-launch-new-strikes-on-multiple-huthi-sites-in-yemen/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/23/u-s-u-k-launch-new-strikes-on-multiple-huthi-sites-in-yemen/#respond Tue, 23 Jan 2024 06:24:32 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/yemen-huthis-iran-us-uk/32787845.html At least seven people were killed and dozens wounded on January 23 in a fresh wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, and Kharkiv as an air-raid alert was declared for the whole territory of Ukraine.

    In Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, the number of people killed in the Russian attack increased to five, the Prosecutor-General's Office said on Telegram, after initial reports put the number at three.

    "Despite the efforts of the medics, two wounded people died in the hospital," the message reads.

    Another 51 people were wounded, including four children, regional Governor Oleh Synyehubov said on Telegram, adding that Russian Kh-22 missiles struck civilian targets in the Kyiv and Saltivka districts.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    "Apartment buildings, an educational institution, and other exclusively civilian infrastructure were destroyed," Synyehubov wrote.

    Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said 30 residential buildings were damaged, some 1,000 windows were broken, and the heating had to be turned off in 20 houses as the temperatures reached minus seven degrees Celsius.

    In Kyiv, at least 20 people, including four children, were wounded, Mayor Vitali Klitschko and city administration chief Roman Popko said on Telegram.

    One woman was declared clinically dead despite efforts by doctors to resuscitate her, Popko said.

    Three districts -- Pechersk, Svyatoshynsk, and Solomyansk -- were targeted in the attack, Klitschko said.

    "As a result of the Russian missile attack, 20 people were wounded; 13 of them are hospitalized, including three children. One 13-year-old boy and six adult victims were treated by medics on the spot," Klitschko wrote.

    Russian missiles also hit the city of Pavlohrad, in the southern region of Dnipropetrovsk, killing at least one person, regional Governor Serhiy Lysak announced on Telegram.

    In Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on January 23 that the missile strikes "successfully" targeted Ukraine's military production facilities, hitting all intended targets, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov again denied that Russian forces had struck civilian areas, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

    Russia over the past several weeks has abruptly intensified its missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets, causing numerous deaths, injuries, and material damage. The eastern city of Kharkiv, just 30 kilometers from the Russian border, has been particularly targeted by Russian strikes.

    According to Ukrainian officials, only between December 29 and January 2, Russia launched more than 500 Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles at Ukraine's cities.

    The unusually intense wave of strikes has also put pressure on Ukraine's air-defense capabilities and its ammunition stockpiles, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to call on Kyiv's allies to step up weapons deliveries.

    With reporting by AP


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/23/u-s-u-k-launch-new-strikes-on-multiple-huthi-sites-in-yemen/feed/ 0 454555
    Islamabad, Tehran Announce Return Of Ambassadors, Visit To Pakistan By Iranian Foreign Minister https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/islamabad-tehran-announce-return-of-ambassadors-visit-to-pakistan-by-iranian-foreign-minister/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/islamabad-tehran-announce-return-of-ambassadors-visit-to-pakistan-by-iranian-foreign-minister/#respond Mon, 22 Jan 2024 12:00:21 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-pakistan-ambassadors-return-visit-abdollahian/32786746.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/islamabad-tehran-announce-return-of-ambassadors-visit-to-pakistan-by-iranian-foreign-minister/feed/ 0 453915
    Islamabad, Tehran Announce Return Of Ambassadors, Visit To Pakistan By Iranian Foreign Minister https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/islamabad-tehran-announce-return-of-ambassadors-visit-to-pakistan-by-iranian-foreign-minister/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/islamabad-tehran-announce-return-of-ambassadors-visit-to-pakistan-by-iranian-foreign-minister/#respond Mon, 22 Jan 2024 12:00:21 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-pakistan-ambassadors-return-visit-abdollahian/32786746.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/islamabad-tehran-announce-return-of-ambassadors-visit-to-pakistan-by-iranian-foreign-minister/feed/ 0 453916
    Iranian Soldier Suspected Of Killing 5 Fellow Troops In Southeastern City Arrested https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/iranian-soldier-suspected-of-killing-5-fellow-troops-in-southeastern-city-arrested/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/iranian-soldier-suspected-of-killing-5-fellow-troops-in-southeastern-city-arrested/#respond Mon, 22 Jan 2024 07:30:49 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-sodier-kills-5-fellow-troops-kerman/32786371.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/22/iranian-soldier-suspected-of-killing-5-fellow-troops-in-southeastern-city-arrested/feed/ 0 454085
    Amid Rising Tensions With Iran, Pakistani Police Say Member Of Iranian-Backed Militant Group Arrested In Karachi https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/21/amid-rising-tensions-with-iran-pakistani-police-say-member-of-iranian-backed-militant-group-arrested-in-karachi/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/21/amid-rising-tensions-with-iran-pakistani-police-say-member-of-iranian-backed-militant-group-arrested-in-karachi/#respond Sun, 21 Jan 2024 14:00:25 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-arrest-iranian-backed-militant-group-member/32785586.html At least 27 people were killed on January 21 by shelling at a market on the outskirts of the city of Donetsk in Russian-occupied Ukraine, the head of the Russian-installed authority in Donetsk said.

    An additional 25 people were injured in the strike on the suburb of Tekstilshchik, including two teenagers, said Denis Pushilin, who accused the Ukrainian military of firing the shells.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    He blamed Ukraine for the attack, calling it a "horrific" artillery strike on a civilian area.

    Ukrainian shelling of a separate neighborhood in the city killed one person, Pushilin said, bringing the total number of dead in occupied Donetsk to 28.

    According to Aleksei Kulemzin, Donetsk city's Russian-installed mayor, Ukrainian forces bombarded a busy area where shops and a market are located.

    Pushilin announced a day of mourning on January 22 in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, the name given to the part of the region Russia says it has annexed.

    Kyiv has not commented on the event, and the claims of the Russian-installed officials in Donetsk could not be independently verified.

    The Russian Foreign Ministry blamed the strike on Ukraine and described it as a “terrorist attack.”

    “These terrorist attacks by the Kyiv regime clearly demonstrate its lack of political will toward achieving peace and the settlement of this conflict by diplomatic means,” it said.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted a message on X, formerly Twitter, saying that thousands of people would still be alive today if Moscow had not launched the war but did not mention the strike against occupied Donetsk.

    "Russia must feel and realize forever that the aggressor loses the most as a result of aggression," he said, adding that on January 21 more than 100 Ukrainian cities, towns, and villages in nine regions had been shelled and, unfortunately, there were dead and wounded.

    UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “strongly condemns all attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, including today’s shelling of the city of Donetsk in Ukraine,” according to a UN spokesperson, adding that all such attacks are prohibited under international humanitarian law.

    The Donetsk regional military administration, meanwhile, said one person was killed and another was wounded as a result of shelling by Russian troops of Kurakhovo on January 21.

    Vadym Filashkin accused the Russian troops of aiming at residential buildings, adding that a 31-year-old man died at the scene.

    A kindergarten and several private houses were damaged by the impact, and a fire broke out, which the rescuers have already extinguished, Filashkin said on Telegram.

    Earlier on January 21, the Russian Defense Ministry announced a missile attack on the occupied Crimea.

    Russian anti-aircraft missiles allegedly shot down three missiles over the Black Sea near the western coast of the Russian-occupied peninsula, the ministry said on Telegram.

    Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-installed governor of the Ukrainian peninsula seized by Moscow in 2014, said at the time that air-defense forces had "shot down an aerial target" over the Black Sea.

    Prior to the statement, an RFE/RL correspondent reported an air raid and three explosions in Sevastopol.

    On the front line, Russian forces took control of the village of Krokhmalne in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on January 21.

    Ukrainian forces confirmed that the settlement had been occupied, but Volodymyr Fityo, spokesman for Ukrainian Ground Forces Command, said Kyiv’s troops had been pulled back to pre-prepared reserve positions.

    He said Krokhmalne had a population of roughly 45 people before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. “That’s five houses, probably,” he was quoted as saying by Ukrainian news outlet Hromadske. “Our main goal is to save the lives of Ukraine’s defenders.”

    With reporting by Reuters, AP, and AFP


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/21/amid-rising-tensions-with-iran-pakistani-police-say-member-of-iranian-backed-militant-group-arrested-in-karachi/feed/ 0 454117
    U.S. Says Iranian-Backed Militants Attacked Iraq Base https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/21/u-s-says-iranian-backed-militants-attacked-iraq-base/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/21/u-s-says-iranian-backed-militants-attacked-iraq-base/#respond Sun, 21 Jan 2024 09:15:56 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/u-s-says-iranian-backed-militants-attacked-iraq-base/32785413.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/21/u-s-says-iranian-backed-militants-attacked-iraq-base/feed/ 0 453719
    Five Dead In Israeli Strike On Syria Targeting ‘Iran-Aligned Leaders’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/20/five-dead-in-israeli-strike-on-syria-targeting-iran-aligned-leaders/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/20/five-dead-in-israeli-strike-on-syria-targeting-iran-aligned-leaders/#respond Sat, 20 Jan 2024 10:12:50 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/israel-strike-syria-iran-aligned-leaders/32784579.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/20/five-dead-in-israeli-strike-on-syria-targeting-iran-aligned-leaders/feed/ 0 453527
    U.S. Carries Out Fresh Strikes Against Yemen’s Huthis https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/u-s-carries-out-fresh-strikes-against-yemens-huthis/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/u-s-carries-out-fresh-strikes-against-yemens-huthis/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 21:26:38 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/yemen-us-missiles-red-sea/32783992.html

    CHISINAU -- Moldova has paused a recruitment effort to funnel construction workers to Israel, alleging that Israelis have put Moldovans in "high-risk conflict zones," withheld passports, and committed other abuses while plugging gaps in their workforce brought on by the current war in the Gaza Strip.

    The Labor Ministry confirmed to RFE/RL's Moldovan Service this week that Chisinau had "temporarily postponed" the latest round of recruitment under the bilateral agreement following the accusations by Moldovan citizens, but said it could resume once Israel confirmed the practices were stopped and "security and respect" for Moldovan nationals were ensured.

    Israel has faced an acute labor squeeze since hundreds of thousands of reservists and other Israelis were called up to fight and thousands of Palestinians were denied access to jobs in Israel after gunmen from the EU- and U.S.-designated terrorist group Hamas carried out a massive cross-border attack that killed just over 1,100 people, most of them Israeli civilians, on October 7.

    "As a result of the deterioration of the security situation in the state of Israel, workers from the Republic of Moldova were employed to work in high-risk conflict zones, some citizens had their passports withheld by employers, complaints were registered about the confiscation of workers' luggage, as well as Israeli authorities carried out activities of direct recruitment of Moldovan workers, on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, which is contrary to the provisions of the agreement," the ministry said in a January 17 response to an RFE/RL access-to-information request.

    The ministry did not accuse the Israeli state of perpetrating the abuses. It said Moldovan officials have reported the "violations" to Israel and asked it to put a stop to them and "ensure the security and respect of the rights of workers coming from the Republic of Moldova," one of Europe's poorest countries with a population of some 3.4 million.

    The Moldovan Embassy in Tel Aviv said some 13,000 Moldovans were in Israel before the current war broke out. Many work at construction sites or provide care for the elderly, inside or outside the auspices of the recruitment agreement.

    Israeli authorities did not immediately respond to RFE/RL's request for comment on the Labor Ministry's accusations.

    Since the war erupted in early October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has sought to extend worker visas and attract more foreign labor from around the world, including by raising its quota on foreign construction workers by roughly half, to 65,000 individuals.

    It appealed publicly for 1,200 new Moldovan workers for the construction sector, including blacksmiths, painters, and carpenters.

    Speaking in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, the director of the Foreign Workers Administration, Inbal Mashash, named Moldova, along with Thailand and Sri Lanka, as countries where Israeli hopes were highest for more guest workers.

    The bilateral Moldovan-Israeli agreement on temporary employment in "certain sectors" including construction in Israel was signed in 2012 and has been amended on multiple occasions, including in December.

    In addition to setting up training and procedures to regulate and steer labor flows, it imposes restrictions that include a ban on Israeli companies recruiting on Moldovan territory.

    In its decade-long existence, some 17,000 Moldovans have worked in Israel under the auspices of the agreement through 28 rounds of recruitment. At the last available official count, in 2022, there were about 4,000 participating Moldovans.

    "The [29th] recruitment round will resume once the above-mentioned irregularities are eliminated and we receive confirmation from the Israeli side of the necessary measures being taken to ensure security and respect for the rights of employed [Moldovan] citizens on the territory of the state of Israel," the Moldovan Labor Ministry said.

    From the early days of the current war, Moldovans have spoken out about family concerns and the pressures to pack up and leave Israel, but most appear to have stayed.

    As rumors spread of pressure on Moldovan construction workers to stay in Israel after a January 5 pause announcement, Labor Minister Alexei Buzu confirmed there were problems but focused on the accusation that Israeli firms were improperly recruiting Moldovans outside the program or for repeat stints.

    A failure to comply with some provisions brings "a risk that other commitments will be ignored [or] will not be delivered at the time or according to the expectations described in the agreement," he said.

    Buzu stopped short of leveling some of the most serious accusations involving Moldovan workers being sent to work in 'high-risk conflict zones" or having their passports or belongings taken from them.

    Reuters has reported that the worker shortage is costing Israel's construction sector around $37 million per day.

    Moldova's National Employment Agency (ANOFM) is responsible for implementing the Israeli-Moldovan recruitment agreement. The Labor Ministry said the agency had already lined up construction recruits and scheduled professional exams for the end of December before the postponement.

    The ministry said a similar agreement on the home-caregiver sector between Moldova and Israel -- the subject of negotiations in December -- had “not yet been signed."

    The Hamas-led surprise attack on October 7 sparked a massive response from Israel including devastating aerial bombardments and a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, which was home to 2.3 million Palestinians before the latest fighting displaced most of them.

    The Hamas-run health authorities in Gaza say 24,700 people have been killed in the subsequent fighting and 62,000 more injured.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/u-s-carries-out-fresh-strikes-against-yemens-huthis/feed/ 0 453591
    Iran Says Two Suspects Killed, More Detained In Connection With Deadly Kerman Attacks https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/iran-says-two-suspects-killed-more-detained-in-connection-with-deadly-kerman-attacks/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/iran-says-two-suspects-killed-more-detained-in-connection-with-deadly-kerman-attacks/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 19:30:09 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-arrests-kerman-bombings/32783948.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/iran-says-two-suspects-killed-more-detained-in-connection-with-deadly-kerman-attacks/feed/ 0 453654
    “Not Wanting” A Wider Middle East War, the U.S. Has Started One https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/not-wanting-a-wider-middle-east-war-the-u-s-has-started-one/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/not-wanting-a-wider-middle-east-war-the-u-s-has-started-one/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 17:32:25 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=147572 You have to hand it to the U.S. and its henchmen for brazenness.  In order to protect their client state Israel and its genocide in Gaza, the U.S., together with the UK, have in one week launched air and sea attacks on the Houthis in Yemen five times, referring to it as “self-defense” in their […]

    The post “Not Wanting” A Wider Middle East War, the U.S. Has Started One first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>

    You have to hand it to the U.S. and its henchmen for brazenness.  In order to protect their client state Israel and its genocide in Gaza, the U.S., together with the UK, have in one week launched air and sea attacks on the Houthis in Yemen five times, referring to it as “self-defense” in their Orwellian lingo.  The ostensible reason being Yemen’s refusal to allow ships bound for Israel, which is committing genocide in Gaza, to enter the Red Sea, while permitting other ships to pass freely.

    To any impartial observer, the Houthis should be lauded.  Yet, while the International Court of Justice considers the South African charge of genocide against Israel that is supported by overwhelming evidence, the U.S. and its allies have instigated a wider war throughout the Middle East while claiming they do not want such a war.  These settler colonial states want genocide and a much wider war because they have been set back on their heels by those they have mocked, provoked, and attacked – notably the Palestinians, Syrians, and Russians, among others.

    While the criminalization of international law does not bode well for the ICJ’s upcoming ruling or its ability to stop Israeli’s genocide in Gaza, Michel Chossudovsky, of Global Research, as is his wont, has offered a superb analysis and suggestion for those who oppose such crimes: that Principle IV of the Nuremberg Charter – “The fact that a person [e.g. Israeli, U.S. soldiers, pilots] acted pursuant to order of his [her] Government or of a superior does not relieve him [her] from responsibility under international law, provided a moral choice was in fact possible to him.” – should be used to supplement the South African charges and appeal directly to the moral consciences of those asked to carry out acts of genocide. He writes:

    Let us call upon Israeli and American soldiers and pilots “to abandon the battlefield”, as an act of refusal to participate in a criminal undertaking against the People of Gaza.  

    South Africa’s legal procedure at the ICJ should be endorsed Worldwide. While it cannot be relied upon to put a rapid end to the genocide, it provides support and legitimacy to the “Disobey Unlawful Orders, Abandon the Battlefield”  campaign under Nuremberg Charter Principle IV.

    While such an approach will not stop the continuing slaughter, it would remind the world that each person who participates in and supports it bears a heavy burden of guilt for their actions; that they are morally and legally culpable.  This appeal to the human heart and conscience, no matter what its practical effect, will at least add to the condemnation of a genocide happening in real time and full view of the world, even though no one will ever be prosecuted for such crimes since any real just use of international law has long disappeared.  Yet there is a edifying history of such conscientious objection to immoral war making, and though each person makes the decision in solitary witness, individual choices can inspire others and the solitary become solidary, as Albert Camus reminded us at the end of his short story, “The Artist at Work.”

    With each passing day, it becomes more and more evident that Israel/U.S.A. and their allies do want a wider war.  Iran is their special focus, with Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen targets on the way.  Anyone who supports the genocide in Gaza, explicitly or through silence, bears responsibility for the conflagration to come.  There are no excuses.

    And the facts show that it is axiomatic that waging war has been the modus operandi of the U.S./Israeli alliance for a long time.  Just as in early 2003 when the Bush administration said they were looking for a peaceful solution to their fake charges against Sadam Hussein with his alleged “weapons of mass destruction,” the Biden administration is lying, as the Bush administration lied about September 11, 2001 to launch its ongoing war on terror, starting in Afghanistan.  Without an expanded war, President Biden – aka the Democrats, since he will most probably not be the candidate – and his psychopathic partner Benjamin Netanyahu, will not survive.  It is bi-partisan war-mongering, of course, internationally and intramurally, since both U.S. political parties are controlled by the Israel Lobby and billionaire class that owns Congress and the “defense” industry that thrives on never-ending war to such an extent that even the notable independent candidate for the presidency, Robert Kennedy, Jr., who is running as an anti-war candidate, fully supports Israel which is tantamount to supporting Biden’s expanding war policy.

    Biden and Netanyahu, who are always claiming after the fact that they were surprised by events or were fed bad advice by their underlings, are dumb scorpions. They are stupid but deadly.  And many people in the West, while perhaps decent people in their personal lives, are living in a fantasy world of “sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity,” in MLK, Jr.’s words, as the growing threat of a world war increases and insouciance reigns.

    Neither the Israeli nor American government can allow themselves to be humiliated, U.S./NATO by the Russians in Ukraine and the Israelis by the Palestinians.  Like cornered criminals with lethal weapons, they will kill as many as they can on their way down, taking their revenge on the weakest first.

    Their “mistakes” are always well intentioned.  They stumble into wars through faulty intelligence.  They drop the ball because of bureaucratic mix-ups. They miscalculate the perfidy of the moneyed elites whom allegedly they oppose while pocketing their cash and ushering them into the national coffers out of necessity since they are too big to fail.  They never see the storm coming, even as they create it.  Their incompetence or the perfidy of their enemies is the retort to all those “nut cases” who conjure up conspiracy theories or plain facts to explain their actions or lack thereof.  They are innocent.  Always innocent.  And they can’t understand why those they have long abused reach a point when they will no longer impetrate for mercy but will fight fiercely for their freedom.

    All signs point to a major war on the horizon.  Both the U.S.A. and Israel have been shown to be rogue states with no desire to negotiate a peaceful world.  Believing in high-tech weapons and massive firepower, neither has learned the hard lesson that anti-colonial wars have historically been won by those with far less weapons but with a passionate desire to throw off the chains of their oppressors.  Vietnam is the text-book case, and there are many others.  Failure to learn is the name of their game.

    The Zionist project for a Greater Israel is doomed to fail, but as it does, desperate men like Biden and Netanyahu are intent on launching desperate acts of war.  Exactly when and how this expanded war will blaze across the headlines is the question.  It has started, but I think it prudent to expect a black swan event sometime this year when all hell will break loose.  The genocide in Gaza is the first step, and the U.S./Israel, “not wanting” a wider war, have already started one.

    (For an excellent history lesson on the Zionist oppression of Palestinians and the current genocide, listen to Max Blumenthal’s and Miko Peled’s impassioned talk – “Where is the War in Gaza Going? – delivered from the heart of darkness, Washington D.C.  Two Jewish men who know the difference between Zionism and Judaism and whose consciences are aflame with justice for the oppressed Palestinians.)

    The post “Not Wanting” A Wider Middle East War, the U.S. Has Started One first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Edward Curtin.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/not-wanting-a-wider-middle-east-war-the-u-s-has-started-one/feed/ 0 453282
    Iran Rejects Dutch Claim That Infant Killed In Iraq Strikes https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/iran-rejects-dutch-claim-that-infant-killed-in-iraq-strikes/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/iran-rejects-dutch-claim-that-infant-killed-in-iraq-strikes/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 17:05:34 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-iraq-kurdistan-strike-baby-killed/32783851.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/iran-rejects-dutch-claim-that-infant-killed-in-iraq-strikes/feed/ 0 453665
    Pakistan Attacks Iran After Iran Air Strike In Pakistan’s Balochistan Province https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/pakistan-attacks-iran-after-iran-air-strike-in-pakistans-balochistan-province/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/pakistan-attacks-iran-after-iran-air-strike-in-pakistans-balochistan-province/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 10:17:28 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=13ae282bf61af4a48d5c01f53be7f9a5
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/pakistan-attacks-iran-after-iran-air-strike-in-pakistans-balochistan-province/feed/ 0 453126
    U.S. Conducts New Strikes Hitting Huthi Anti-Ship Missiles As Shipping Disruptions Grow https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/u-s-conducts-new-strikes-hitting-huthi-anti-ship-missiles-as-shipping-disruptions-grow/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/u-s-conducts-new-strikes-hitting-huthi-anti-ship-missiles-as-shipping-disruptions-grow/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 07:20:12 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-hits-huthi-anti-ship-missiles-iran-yemen-red-sea/32783081.html

    UFA, Russia -- A court in Ufa, the capital of Russia's Republic of Bashkortostan, has sentenced eight men to up to 14 days in jail for taking part in an unprecedented rally earlier this week to support the former leader of the banned Bashqort movement, Fail Alsynov, who has criticized Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine.

    The Kirov district court on January 18 sentenced activists Salavat Idelbayev and Rustam Yuldashev to 14 and 13 days in jail, respectively, after finding them guilty of taking part in "an unsanctioned rally that led to the disruption of infrastructure activities and obstructed the work of a court" on January 15.

    A day earlier, the same court sentenced Ilnar Galin to 13 days in jail, and Denis Skvortsov, Fanzil Akhmetshin, Yulai Aralbayev, Radmir Mukhametshin, and Dmitry Petrov to 10 days in jail each on the same charges.

    The sentences were related to a January 15 rally of around 5,000 people in front of a court in the town of Baimak, where the verdict and sentencing of Alsynov, who was charged with inciting ethnic hatred, were expected to be announced. But the court postponed the announcement to January 17 to allow security forces to prepare for any reaction to the verdict in the controversial trial.

    On January 17, thousands of supporters gathered in front of the court again, and after Alsynov was sentenced to four years in prison, clashes broke out as police using batons, tear gas, and stun grenades forced the protesters to leave the site. Several protesters were injured and at least two were hospitalized.

    Dozens of protesters were detained and the Investigative Committee said those in custody from the January 17 unrest will face criminal charges -- organizing and participating in mass disorder and using violence against law enforcement.

    Separately on January 18, police detained two young men in Baimak on unspecified charges. Friends of the men said the detentions were most likely linked to the rallies to support Alsynov.

    The head of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, made his first statement on January 18 about the largest protest rally in Russia since Moscow launched its ongoing invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, saying he "will not tolerate extremism and attempts to shake up the situation," and promising to find the "real organizers" of the rallies.

    It was Khabirov who initiated the investigation of Alsynov, accusing him of inciting ethnic hatred as well as calling for anti-government rallies and extremist activities and discrediting Russia's armed forces.

    In the end, Alsynov was charged only with inciting hatred, which stemmed from a speech he gave at a rally in late April 2023 in the village of Ishmurzino in which he criticized local government plans to start mining gold near the village, as it would bring in migrant laborers.

    Investigators said Alsynov's speech "negatively assessed people in the Caucasus and Central Asia, humiliating their human dignity." Alsynov and his supporters have rejected the charge as politically motivated.

    Bashkortostan's Supreme Court banned Alsynov's Bashqort group, which for years promoted Bashkir language, culture, and equal rights for ethnic Bashkirs, in May 2020, declaring it extremist.

    Bashqort was banned after staging several rallies and other events challenging the policies of both local and federal authorities, including Moscow's move to abolish mandatory indigenous-language classes in the regions with large populations of indigenous ethnic groups.

    With reporting by RusNews


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/u-s-conducts-new-strikes-hitting-huthi-anti-ship-missiles-as-shipping-disruptions-grow/feed/ 0 453133
    Pakistan’s Civil, Military Leaders To Review Iran Standoff, Says Minister https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/pakistans-civil-military-leaders-to-review-iran-standoff-says-minister/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/pakistans-civil-military-leaders-to-review-iran-standoff-says-minister/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 06:44:15 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-iran-standoff-civil-military-review-solangi/32783020.html

    UFA, Russia -- A court in Ufa, the capital of Russia's Republic of Bashkortostan, has sentenced eight men to up to 14 days in jail for taking part in an unprecedented rally earlier this week to support the former leader of the banned Bashqort movement, Fail Alsynov, who has criticized Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine.

    The Kirov district court on January 18 sentenced activists Salavat Idelbayev and Rustam Yuldashev to 14 and 13 days in jail, respectively, after finding them guilty of taking part in "an unsanctioned rally that led to the disruption of infrastructure activities and obstructed the work of a court" on January 15.

    A day earlier, the same court sentenced Ilnar Galin to 13 days in jail, and Denis Skvortsov, Fanzil Akhmetshin, Yulai Aralbayev, Radmir Mukhametshin, and Dmitry Petrov to 10 days in jail each on the same charges.

    The sentences were related to a January 15 rally of around 5,000 people in front of a court in the town of Baimak, where the verdict and sentencing of Alsynov, who was charged with inciting ethnic hatred, were expected to be announced. But the court postponed the announcement to January 17 to allow security forces to prepare for any reaction to the verdict in the controversial trial.

    On January 17, thousands of supporters gathered in front of the court again, and after Alsynov was sentenced to four years in prison, clashes broke out as police using batons, tear gas, and stun grenades forced the protesters to leave the site. Several protesters were injured and at least two were hospitalized.

    Dozens of protesters were detained and the Investigative Committee said those in custody from the January 17 unrest will face criminal charges -- organizing and participating in mass disorder and using violence against law enforcement.

    Separately on January 18, police detained two young men in Baimak on unspecified charges. Friends of the men said the detentions were most likely linked to the rallies to support Alsynov.

    The head of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, made his first statement on January 18 about the largest protest rally in Russia since Moscow launched its ongoing invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, saying he "will not tolerate extremism and attempts to shake up the situation," and promising to find the "real organizers" of the rallies.

    It was Khabirov who initiated the investigation of Alsynov, accusing him of inciting ethnic hatred as well as calling for anti-government rallies and extremist activities and discrediting Russia's armed forces.

    In the end, Alsynov was charged only with inciting hatred, which stemmed from a speech he gave at a rally in late April 2023 in the village of Ishmurzino in which he criticized local government plans to start mining gold near the village, as it would bring in migrant laborers.

    Investigators said Alsynov's speech "negatively assessed people in the Caucasus and Central Asia, humiliating their human dignity." Alsynov and his supporters have rejected the charge as politically motivated.

    Bashkortostan's Supreme Court banned Alsynov's Bashqort group, which for years promoted Bashkir language, culture, and equal rights for ethnic Bashkirs, in May 2020, declaring it extremist.

    Bashqort was banned after staging several rallies and other events challenging the policies of both local and federal authorities, including Moscow's move to abolish mandatory indigenous-language classes in the regions with large populations of indigenous ethnic groups.

    With reporting by RusNews


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/19/pakistans-civil-military-leaders-to-review-iran-standoff-says-minister/feed/ 0 453167
    Stockholm Says Swedish-Iranian Man Detained in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/stockholm-says-swedish-iranian-man-detained-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/stockholm-says-swedish-iranian-man-detained-in-iran/#respond Thu, 18 Jan 2024 16:12:40 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/stockholm-says-swedish-iranian-man-detained-in-iran/32782235.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/stockholm-says-swedish-iranian-man-detained-in-iran/feed/ 0 453360
    Rights Group Calls For International Pressure On Iran To Halt ‘Imminent Execution’ Of Kurdish Prisoners https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/rights-group-calls-for-international-pressure-on-iran-to-halt-imminent-execution-of-kurdish-prisoners/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/rights-group-calls-for-international-pressure-on-iran-to-halt-imminent-execution-of-kurdish-prisoners/#respond Thu, 18 Jan 2024 12:50:29 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-kurds-executions-imminent/32781989.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/rights-group-calls-for-international-pressure-on-iran-to-halt-imminent-execution-of-kurdish-prisoners/feed/ 0 453498
    Rights Group Calls For International Pressure On Iran To Halt ‘Imminent Execution’ Of Kurdish Prisoners https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/rights-group-calls-for-international-pressure-on-iran-to-halt-imminent-execution-of-kurdish-prisoners/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/rights-group-calls-for-international-pressure-on-iran-to-halt-imminent-execution-of-kurdish-prisoners/#respond Thu, 18 Jan 2024 12:50:29 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-kurds-executions-imminent/32781989.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/rights-group-calls-for-international-pressure-on-iran-to-halt-imminent-execution-of-kurdish-prisoners/feed/ 0 453499
    Pakistan Launches Strikes On Targets In Iran, 7 Reported Dead https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/pakistan-launches-strikes-on-targets-in-iran-7-reported-dead/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/pakistan-launches-strikes-on-targets-in-iran-7-reported-dead/#respond Thu, 18 Jan 2024 05:58:05 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-pakistan-strikes-baluchistan/32780717.html Ukraine's priority this year is to regain control over its skies, the country's foreign minister said, as Russia continues to use aerial attacks to pound its neighbor as the Kremlin's full-scale invasion nears its third year.

    Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 17, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on Ukraine's Western backers to provide advanced weaponry, including long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets, to help Kyiv "throw Russia out of the sky."

    Ukraine has been subjected to a series of unusually intense Russian air strikes since the start of the year that has put its air defenses under massive pressure amid dwindling stocks of ammunition and equipment.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    "In 2024, of course the priority is to throw Russia from the skies," Kuleba said during a panel discussion. "Because the one who controls the skies will define when and how the war will end."

    Kuleba's comments echoed remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who said a day earlier at the forum that his country “must gain air superiority.”

    "Just as we gained superiority in the Black Sea, we can do it. This will allow progress on the ground.... Partners know what is needed and in what quantity," Zelenskiy said.

    Russian missiles later on January 17 struck a town outside Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, killing one person and damaging an educational institution, the regional governor and the military said.

    Governor Oleh Synyehubov said on Telegram there were two strikes on the town of Chuhuyev. A female employee of a heating and power plant was killed and another person was injured. A military source, also reporting on Telegram, said the attack involved S-300 missiles.

    Russian troops attacked Kharkiv with two S-300 missiles on January 16, wounding 17 people, including 14 who have been hospitalized.

    The Ukrainian military also said it destroyed six Iranian-made Shahed drones over the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions late on January 17.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 17 said the Biden administration was "working very hard" to secure additional funding for Ukraine from Congress, warning that failure to do so would be a "real problem."

    "If we don't get that money, it's a real problem. It's a real problem for Ukraine. I think it's a problem for us and our leadership around the world," he said.

    President Joe Biden convened top congressional leaders at the White House to underscore Ukraine's security needs.

    House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican-Louisiana) and other Republicans used the meeting with Biden to push for tougher border security measures.

    "We understand that there's concern about the safety, security, and sovereignty of Ukraine," Johnson told reporters after the meeting "But the American people have those same concerns about our own domestic sovereignty and our safety and our security."

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (Democrat-New York) stressed that Biden had repeatedly said he is willing to compromise on certain border measures. He told reporters that there was a "large amount of agreement around the table" on both funding for Ukraine and border security.

    The German parliament meanwhile rejected a motion put forward by the conservative opposition that called for the government to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Nearly all lawmakers from the three-party governing coalition -- Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP) -- opposed to the motion on January 17.

    The Greens and the FDP have been pushing Scholz for months to send the missiles, but lawmakers from the two parties said they voted against the proposal because the conservative opposition had linked it to a debate on the annual report on Germany’s military.

    As Kuleba made his comments in the Swiss ski resort, Ukrainian authorities were declaring an air-raid alert for the whole country.

    The Ukrainian Air Force warned on Telegram that a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet had taken off from the Mozdok airfield in Russia's North Ossetia, while Telegram monitoring channels reported that an Il-78M refueling plane was also airborne.

    Earlier on January 17, a Russian drone attack on Odesa wounded three people and caused damage to civilian residential infrastructure, prompting the evacuation of 130 people, regional Governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram.

    The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine said separately that it shot down 11 Iranian-made drones during the attack on Odesa, with the vast majority of the debris falling into the sea.

    "Air-defense units worked for almost three hours.... The main efforts of the enemy were concentrated on attacks on Odesa," the military said in a statement.

    The latest Russian attacks came as the United Nations said the past several weeks have seen a steep increase in civilian victims in Ukraine due to unusually intense missile and drone strikes.

    In December alone, 101 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 491 were wounded in Russian strikes, amounting a 26.5 percent month-to- month increase in verified casualties, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said in a report published on January 16.

    In Brussels, the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Bob Bauer, said on January 17 that the alliance would keep supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.

    Russia Targets Ukraine's Civilian Infrastructure In Overnight Attacks
    Photo Gallery:

    Russia Targets Ukraine's Civilian Infrastructure In Overnight Attacks

    Russia launched a late-night attack on January 16 that struck the city center of Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine, as well as the Black Sea port of Odesa early on January 17, wounding civilians and causing widespread destruction to residential buildings.

    “Today is the 693rd day of what Russia thought would be a three-day war. Ukraine will have our support for every day that is to come because the outcome of this war will determine the fate of the world,” Bauer said at the start of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers.

    “This war has never been about any real security threat to Russia coming from either Ukraine or NATO,” Bauer added. “This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on Earth: democracy. If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too.”

    Bauer also urged a fundamental overhaul in the conflict readiness of the 31-member alliance.

    “In order to be fully effective, also in the future, we need a war-fighting transformation of NATO,” he said.

    With reporting by Reuters and AP


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/18/pakistan-launches-strikes-on-targets-in-iran-7-reported-dead/feed/ 0 452741
    Iran’s Supreme Court Denies Retrial For Four Kurds Facing Death Sentences https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/irans-supreme-court-denies-retrial-for-four-kurds-facing-death-sentences/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/irans-supreme-court-denies-retrial-for-four-kurds-facing-death-sentences/#respond Wed, 17 Jan 2024 18:53:45 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-kurds-death-sentences-appeal-denied/32780107.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/irans-supreme-court-denies-retrial-for-four-kurds-facing-death-sentences/feed/ 0 452781
    Yemen’s Huthis Say U.S.-Owned Ship Hit With Missiles As U.S. Redesignates Them Global Terrorists https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/yemens-huthis-say-u-s-owned-ship-hit-with-missiles-as-u-s-redesignates-them-global-terrorists/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/yemens-huthis-say-u-s-owned-ship-hit-with-missiles-as-u-s-redesignates-them-global-terrorists/#respond Wed, 17 Jan 2024 16:46:11 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/yemen-huthis-us-terrorist-list/32779996.html Ukraine's priority this year is to regain control over its skies, the country's foreign minister said, as Russia continues to use aerial attacks to pound its neighbor as the Kremlin's full-scale invasion nears its third year.

    Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 17, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on Ukraine's Western backers to provide advanced weaponry, including long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets, to help Kyiv "throw Russia out of the sky."

    Ukraine has been subjected to a series of unusually intense Russian air strikes since the start of the year that has put its air defenses under massive pressure amid dwindling stocks of ammunition and equipment.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    "In 2024, of course the priority is to throw Russia from the skies," Kuleba said during a panel discussion. "Because the one who controls the skies will define when and how the war will end."

    Kuleba's comments echoed remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who said a day earlier at the forum that his country “must gain air superiority.”

    "Just as we gained superiority in the Black Sea, we can do it. This will allow progress on the ground.... Partners know what is needed and in what quantity," Zelenskiy said.

    Russian missiles later on January 17 struck a town outside Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, killing one person and damaging an educational institution, the regional governor and the military said.

    Governor Oleh Synyehubov said on Telegram there were two strikes on the town of Chuhuyev. A female employee of a heating and power plant was killed and another person was injured. A military source, also reporting on Telegram, said the attack involved S-300 missiles.

    Russian troops attacked Kharkiv with two S-300 missiles on January 16, wounding 17 people, including 14 who have been hospitalized.

    The Ukrainian military also said it destroyed six Iranian-made Shahed drones over the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions late on January 17.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 17 said the Biden administration was "working very hard" to secure additional funding for Ukraine from Congress, warning that failure to do so would be a "real problem."

    "If we don't get that money, it's a real problem. It's a real problem for Ukraine. I think it's a problem for us and our leadership around the world," he said.

    President Joe Biden convened top congressional leaders at the White House to underscore Ukraine's security needs.

    House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican-Louisiana) and other Republicans used the meeting with Biden to push for tougher border security measures.

    "We understand that there's concern about the safety, security, and sovereignty of Ukraine," Johnson told reporters after the meeting "But the American people have those same concerns about our own domestic sovereignty and our safety and our security."

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (Democrat-New York) stressed that Biden had repeatedly said he is willing to compromise on certain border measures. He told reporters that there was a "large amount of agreement around the table" on both funding for Ukraine and border security.

    The German parliament meanwhile rejected a motion put forward by the conservative opposition that called for the government to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Nearly all lawmakers from the three-party governing coalition -- Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP) -- opposed to the motion on January 17.

    The Greens and the FDP have been pushing Scholz for months to send the missiles, but lawmakers from the two parties said they voted against the proposal because the conservative opposition had linked it to a debate on the annual report on Germany’s military.

    As Kuleba made his comments in the Swiss ski resort, Ukrainian authorities were declaring an air-raid alert for the whole country.

    The Ukrainian Air Force warned on Telegram that a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet had taken off from the Mozdok airfield in Russia's North Ossetia, while Telegram monitoring channels reported that an Il-78M refueling plane was also airborne.

    Earlier on January 17, a Russian drone attack on Odesa wounded three people and caused damage to civilian residential infrastructure, prompting the evacuation of 130 people, regional Governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram.

    The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine said separately that it shot down 11 Iranian-made drones during the attack on Odesa, with the vast majority of the debris falling into the sea.

    "Air-defense units worked for almost three hours.... The main efforts of the enemy were concentrated on attacks on Odesa," the military said in a statement.

    The latest Russian attacks came as the United Nations said the past several weeks have seen a steep increase in civilian victims in Ukraine due to unusually intense missile and drone strikes.

    In December alone, 101 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 491 were wounded in Russian strikes, amounting a 26.5 percent month-to- month increase in verified casualties, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said in a report published on January 16.

    In Brussels, the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Bob Bauer, said on January 17 that the alliance would keep supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.

    Russia Targets Ukraine's Civilian Infrastructure In Overnight Attacks
    Photo Gallery:

    Russia Targets Ukraine's Civilian Infrastructure In Overnight Attacks

    Russia launched a late-night attack on January 16 that struck the city center of Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine, as well as the Black Sea port of Odesa early on January 17, wounding civilians and causing widespread destruction to residential buildings.

    “Today is the 693rd day of what Russia thought would be a three-day war. Ukraine will have our support for every day that is to come because the outcome of this war will determine the fate of the world,” Bauer said at the start of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers.

    “This war has never been about any real security threat to Russia coming from either Ukraine or NATO,” Bauer added. “This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on Earth: democracy. If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too.”

    Bauer also urged a fundamental overhaul in the conflict readiness of the 31-member alliance.

    “In order to be fully effective, also in the future, we need a war-fighting transformation of NATO,” he said.

    With reporting by Reuters and AP


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/yemens-huthis-say-u-s-owned-ship-hit-with-missiles-as-u-s-redesignates-them-global-terrorists/feed/ 0 452840
    From Red Sea to Iran, Will Israel’s Gaza Assault Spark Wider War? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/from-red-sea-to-iran-will-israels-gaza-assault-spark-wider-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/from-red-sea-to-iran-will-israels-gaza-assault-spark-wider-war/#respond Wed, 17 Jan 2024 15:58:01 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=705f83df361e05f4069279de348e0f72
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/from-red-sea-to-iran-will-israels-gaza-assault-spark-wider-war/feed/ 0 452509
    Iranian Lawyer Who Defended Activists Gets 2-Year Ban From Practicing Law https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/iranian-lawyer-who-defended-activists-gets-2-year-ban-from-practicing-law/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/iranian-lawyer-who-defended-activists-gets-2-year-ban-from-practicing-law/#respond Wed, 17 Jan 2024 15:40:15 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-lawyer-alikordi-practice-ban/32779197.html Shahla Lahiji was a giant among human rights activists and booklovers in Iran. Following her death at the age of 81, the pioneering writer and publisher is being remembered as an inspirational figure who was unafraid of pursuing her vision of a fairer world -- even if it meant imprisonment.

    Having written for press and radio since her teens, Lahiji encountered tremendous obstacles to her career following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Her answer was to found Roshangaran, or the Enlighteners, one of the first women-led publishing houses in the Islamic republic, in 1983.

    Lahiji noted a decade later that she quickly recognized the challenges of entering a male-dominated industry in a deeply conservative and patriarchal society.

    "I realized that I had stepped into an environment that was alien to the presence of women," Lahiji wrote.

    She was constantly reminded that she was not welcomed in her chosen profession, and was looked upon with pity.

    "Some, seeing the heavy printing plates I was carrying, rushed to me saying: 'Sister or mother, this is no business for you," she recalled. "Some were sure that if I turned to this work, it was out of necessity: 'Couldn't you have done something else? Like a women's clothing boutique or a baking class?'"

    Her support for human rights would eventually land Lahiji in real trouble with the hard-line authorities.

    In 2000, along with 18 other intellectuals, she was arrested after participating in a conference in Berlin in which risks to writers in Iran, as well as possible social and political reforms, were discussed. Lahiji was sentenced to four years in Tehran's notorious Evin prison on charges of undermining national security and spreading propaganda against the Islamic republic. Her sentence was eventually reduced to six months.

    Mehrangiz Kar, herself a pioneering female attorney in Iran who was also arrested and sentenced to prison for attending the Berlin conference, spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda after Lahiji's death in Tehran following a long illness on January 8.

    'Passionate About Her Work'

    Kar, who is a renowned scholar on women's rights and currently teaches outside the country, described Lahiji as being passionate about using her publishing house as a platform for change.

    "I first met Mrs. Lahiji during the revolution. She was always keen on participating in activities to raise awareness about women's issues. To achieve this, she decided to start a publishing house, which she successfully established," said Kar, who added that Lahiji published more than 15 of her books.

    "Lahiji continued publishing works about women, written by women, and translations by women. She was passionate about her work and worked closely with the women's movement," Kar said, noting that Lahiji "significantly influenced" the women's rights movement in Iran. "However, when women's issues became highly prominent and the government grew sensitive, Lahiji faced pressure, and her office was even set on fire. Despite this, she didn't leave the country and continued her profession."

    Among Lahiji's many unique traits, Kar recalled, was her ability to negotiate with government censors who vetted the works published by Roshangaran.

    "If they had 10 objections, she would negotiate and reason with them to bring it down to five," Kar said. "She often succeeded in persuading them with her viewpoint, making her a distinguished figure in this regard."

    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.
    Shahla Lahiji (left) with Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi in 2007.

    Lahiji, who was born in Tehran in 1942 under the monarchy, described herself as having been raised in an open-minded household in which the women were given greater privileges than the men.

    Her mother was among the first women to enter public service in Iran's monarchy, and her father was educated in Europe. After the family moved to the southwestern city of Shiraz, Lahiji began a career as a journalist with Shiraz Radio at the age of 15. She quickly went on to become the youngest member of Iran's Women Writers Association, and studied sociology in London.

    Growing up, she believed that everyone in the world had a similar experience and opportunities. Following the Islamic Revolution, when she was in her late 30s, she had become fully aware of the need to educate others about women's rightful place in society.

    'More Humane Vision'

    Lahiji did not expect immediate change, she once said, but wanted to prepare women to defend their rights for the long-term. More generally, she sought through Roshangaran "to provide a broader, clearer, and more humane vision of social, economic, philosophical, psychological, and historical issues" for society as a whole.

    Opening this avenue through books often meant careful translations of foreign works. For example, Lahiji spoke about the difficulties of adapting works by the Czech writer Milan Kundera, making slight changes to the text and removing parts she knew would come into conflict with the official censors.

    Lahiji also suggested that some Iranian writers created their own challenges, saying that members of the younger generation would sometimes mischievously use vulgar terms in their submissions that she would edit out because she feared it would harm their cause.

    She lamented in 2005, a few years after her arrest, that many of the books that had been published even during the Islamic Revolution had been banned, and that publishers that were not in line with the authorities were being pushed out.

    But Lahiji carried on with her work, sometimes using silence -- such as her refusal to attend the Tehran book fair -- to send a message to the authorities that censorship was not an acceptable policy.

    Lahiji's work was widely recognized abroad. In 2001, she received PEN American Center's Freedom To Write Award, which honors writers who fought in the face of adversity for the right to freedom of expression. She also won the International Publishers Association's Freedom Prize in 2006 in recognition of her promotion of the right to publish freely in Iran and around the world, among her numerous international awards.

    Lahiji was also a diligent author, penning such works as A Study Of The Historical Identity Of Iranian Women and Women In Search Of Liberation.

    She also founded the Women's Research Center and served as a member of the Violence Against Women Committee in Iran.

    Following her death, condolences poured in -- including from state-run media outlets, civil society, and social media.

    In a testament to the impact Lahiji had on society, more than 300 prominent activists and cultural figures paid their respects by signing a letter honoring her achievements. Remembrances were printed by Iran's official IRNA news agency and other outlets, and by the Publishers and Booksellers Union of Tehran.

    Outside the country, Lahiji's contributions were marked by Iranian authors such as Arash Azizi, who wrote: "Rest in power, Shahla Lahiji. When we were teenagers in Iran of 2000s, that feminist publication house and bookstore you ran in Tehran was a center of our life.”

    Lahiji was buried at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery on January 11. As a final ode, she was laid to rest to the slogan of "Women, Life, Freedom" -- the rallying cry of the nationwide antiestablishment protests that erupted in late 2022 and put women’s rights at the forefront.

    Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/iranian-lawyer-who-defended-activists-gets-2-year-ban-from-practicing-law/feed/ 0 452951
    “The Logic of Escalation”: From Red Sea to Iran & Beyond, Will Israel’s Gaza Assault Spark Wider War? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/the-logic-of-escalation-from-red-sea-to-iran-beyond-will-israels-gaza-assault-spark-wider-war/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/the-logic-of-escalation-from-red-sea-to-iran-beyond-will-israels-gaza-assault-spark-wider-war/#respond Wed, 17 Jan 2024 13:50:31 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=e93f97eaa5730a7561075e18eba7792f Seg5 biden netanyahu

    Military actions by various actors across the Middle East are compounding fears that Israel’s assault on Gaza is escalating into a full-blown regional war. In recent days, the United States has carried out strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen who have resumed their attacks on container ships in the Red Sea; Iran has struck targets in northern Iraq, Syria and Pakistan; while Hezbollah and Israel have escalated the intensity of fighting across their border. For a look at where all this is headed, we speak with journalist Spencer Ackerman, who says it’s “the most dangerous moment for the Middle East” he has witnessed in over 20 years of covering war and security. “This is now a conflict with battlefronts ranging across the region,” he says. “We shouldn’t think that absent an active act of deescalation that this won’t continue spiraling outward throughout 2024.” Ackerman writes the Forever Wars newsletter and is the foreign policy columnist for The Nation.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/17/the-logic-of-escalation-from-red-sea-to-iran-beyond-will-israels-gaza-assault-spark-wider-war/feed/ 0 452530
    Iranian University Says Students Who Protested Ineligible For Higher Studies https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/iranian-university-says-students-who-protested-ineligible-for-higher-studies/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/iranian-university-says-students-who-protested-ineligible-for-higher-studies/#respond Tue, 16 Jan 2024 20:04:17 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-university-student-protesters-ineligible/32777125.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/iranian-university-says-students-who-protested-ineligible-for-higher-studies/feed/ 0 452391
    Iran Extends Jailed Nobel Laureate Mohammadi’s Prison Sentence https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/iran-extends-jailed-nobel-laureate-mohammadis-prison-sentence/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/iran-extends-jailed-nobel-laureate-mohammadis-prison-sentence/#respond Tue, 16 Jan 2024 15:49:05 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-extends-jailed-nobel-laureate-mohammadi-prison/32776901.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/iran-extends-jailed-nobel-laureate-mohammadis-prison-sentence/feed/ 0 452477
    Stockholm Says Another Swede Arrested In Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/stockholm-says-another-swede-arrested-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/stockholm-says-another-swede-arrested-in-iran/#respond Tue, 16 Jan 2024 11:40:11 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-sweden-another-arrest/32776580.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/stockholm-says-another-swede-arrested-in-iran/feed/ 0 452603
    Baghdad Recalls Ambassador After Iran Strikes Northern Iraq, Stoking Fears Of Regional Instability https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/baghdad-recalls-ambassador-after-iran-strikes-northern-iraq-stoking-fears-of-regional-instability/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/baghdad-recalls-ambassador-after-iran-strikes-northern-iraq-stoking-fears-of-regional-instability/#respond Tue, 16 Jan 2024 06:50:57 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-strikes-iraq-kurds-syria/32776135.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/16/baghdad-recalls-ambassador-after-iran-strikes-northern-iraq-stoking-fears-of-regional-instability/feed/ 0 452682
    Iran vs Palestine Football Match Begins With a Minute Silence #shorts https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-vs-palestine-football-match-begins-with-a-minute-silence-shorts/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-vs-palestine-football-match-begins-with-a-minute-silence-shorts/#respond Mon, 15 Jan 2024 20:00:09 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=6b01b63547af6d97e623abf8d82aa20f
    This content originally appeared on VICE News and was authored by VICE News.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-vs-palestine-football-match-begins-with-a-minute-silence-shorts/feed/ 0 452068
    Iranian Police Blame Woman For Violence Of Her Arrest https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iranian-police-blame-woman-for-violence-of-her-arrest/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iranian-police-blame-woman-for-violence-of-her-arrest/#respond Mon, 15 Jan 2024 17:47:41 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-hijab-arrest-violence-woman/32775439.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iranian-police-blame-woman-for-violence-of-her-arrest/feed/ 0 452146
    U.S.-Owned Vessel Hit By Huthi Missile Off Yemen, Raising Tensions https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/u-s-owned-vessel-hit-by-huthi-missile-off-yemen-raising-tensions/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/u-s-owned-vessel-hit-by-huthi-missile-off-yemen-raising-tensions/#respond Mon, 15 Jan 2024 16:15:34 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/yemen-huthis-missile-us-ship/32775350.html

    Kazakhstan's authorities have unexpectedly allowed an event commemorating the 80th anniversary of the birth of the late opposition politician Zamanbek Nurqadilov, an outspoken critic of the Central Asian nation's former president, Nursultan Nazarbaev.

    On January 14, politicians, public figures, lawmakers, and celebrities gathered for an event to commemorate Nurqadilov at a restaurant in central Almaty, the country's largest city. Special letters by President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev and the chairman of the Senate, Kazakh parliament's upper chamber, Maulen Ashimbaev, were read at the ceremony praising Nurqadilov's contribution to the building of Kazakh statehood.

    Nurqadilov, was once mayor of Almaty and chairman of the Emergency Situations Agency before he turned into a fierce critic of Nazarbaev and his government in 2004. He was found dead with two bullets in his chest and one in his head at his home in Almaty in November 2005. Official investigators ruled the death was a suicide, sparking a public outcry at the time.

    Toqaev's letter said a monument to Nurqadilov will be erected in his native Kegen district in the Almaty region, while one of local schools will be named after him and a plaque honoring him will be placed at the house in Almaty where he lived.

    Nurqadilov's former associate, businessman Bolat Abilov, called the event commemorating Nurqadilov "a political, historical, and moral rehabilitation" of the politician, adding that all the Nazarbaev monuments across the nation must be demolished and memorials to honor Nurqadilov and other politicians and journalists who died amid suspicious circumstances must be built instead.

    Nurqadilov’s death occurred around the same time as a series of deaths of opposition politicians and journalists.

    Among them are the deaths of opposition leader and former Kazakh ambassador to Russia, Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly, and his two associates, who were found shot dead near Almaty in February 2006, three months after Nurqadilov's death.

    Both politicians were interviewed in July 2004 by prominent independent journalist Askhat Sharipzhanov, who was found later the same day as the interview beaten and unconscious with a fractured skull. He died three days later in hospital.

    Police said Sharipzhanov had been hit by a car, but friends and colleagues said his injuries suggested he had been struck in the head and hands before being hit by a vehicle.

    Sarsenbaiuly's killing was officially declared to have been motivated by personal enmity. A former chief of staff of the Kazakh parliament, Erzhan Otembaev, was convicted of ordering the slaying and sentenced to 20 years in prison.

    However, in 2013, Otembaev's sentence was annulled after Kazakh authorities announced that the case had been sent for review based on newly obtained evidence they said indicated that Rakhat Aliev, Nazarbaev's former son-in-law, had ordered the killing.

    Aliev, who was deputy chief of Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee when the slaying took place and became an outspoken opponent of Nazarbaev in 2007, was in self-imposed exile in Europe at the time.

    Aliev was later arrested by Austrian officials at the request of authorities in Kazakhstan, who accused him of involvement in the kidnapping and murder of two Kazakh bankers.

    In February 2015, Aliev was found hanged in a Vienna jail.

    Austrian officials ruled Aliev's death a suicide, but many in Kazakhstan believe he was murdered while in Austrian custody.

    With reporting by zakon.kz
    NOTE: RFE/RL correspondent Merhat Sharipzhanov is a brother of the late journalist Askhat Sharipzhanov.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/u-s-owned-vessel-hit-by-huthi-missile-off-yemen-raising-tensions/feed/ 0 452190
    Iran Files New Charges Against Two Journalists After Their Release https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-files-new-charges-against-two-journalists-after-their-release/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-files-new-charges-against-two-journalists-after-their-release/#respond Mon, 15 Jan 2024 13:53:08 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-journalists-mohammadi-hamedi-new-charges-released-amini/32775174.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-files-new-charges-against-two-journalists-after-their-release/feed/ 0 452344
    Iran Files New Charges Against Two Journalists After Their Release https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-files-new-charges-against-two-journalists-after-their-release/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-files-new-charges-against-two-journalists-after-their-release/#respond Mon, 15 Jan 2024 13:53:08 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-journalists-mohammadi-hamedi-new-charges-released-amini/32775174.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/15/iran-files-new-charges-against-two-journalists-after-their-release/feed/ 0 452345
    Crew Of Iran-Held Tanker Safe, Greek Owners Say https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/14/crew-of-iran-held-tanker-safe-greek-owners-say/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/14/crew-of-iran-held-tanker-safe-greek-owners-say/#respond Sun, 14 Jan 2024 16:09:09 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-tanker-greek-owners-crew-safe/32773921.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/14/crew-of-iran-held-tanker-safe-greek-owners-say/feed/ 0 451905
    Iranian Journalists Jailed Over Amini Coverage Granted ‘Temporary’ Release On Bail https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/14/iranian-journalists-jailed-over-amini-coverage-granted-temporary-release-on-bail/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/14/iranian-journalists-jailed-over-amini-coverage-granted-temporary-release-on-bail/#respond Sun, 14 Jan 2024 14:25:25 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-journalists-released-bail-amini-coverage/32773867.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Biden Says U.S. Delivered Private Message To Tehran About Iran-Backed Huthis https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/13/biden-says-u-s-delivered-private-message-to-tehran-about-iran-backed-huthis/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/13/biden-says-u-s-delivered-private-message-to-tehran-about-iran-backed-huthis/#respond Sat, 13 Jan 2024 14:06:47 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/huthi-yemen-strikes-iran-israel-hamas-gaza-message/32773019.html KYIV -- New French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne on a surprise visit sought to reassure Kyiv that it can count on support from Paris following the cabinet reshuffle in France over the past week and that Ukraine will remain “France’s priority” as it continues to battle the Russian invasion.

    “Ukraine is and will remain France’s priority. The defense of the fundamental principles of international law is being played out in Ukraine,” he told a Kyiv news conference alongside his counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on January 13.

    “Russia is hoping that Ukraine and its supporters will tire before it does. We will not weaken. That is the message that I am carrying here to the Ukrainians. Our determination is intact,” said Sejourne, who was making his first foreign journey since being appointed to the position on January 11.

    WATCH: After Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a "partial mobilization" in fall 2022, over 300,000 reservists were drafted into the war in Ukraine, which Russia calls a "special military operation." A year later, women formed The Way Home initiative to demand that their family members be discharged and sent back home. The women wear white shawls as a symbol of their protest.

    Kuleba thanked Sejourne for making his journey to Kyiv despite “another massive shelling by Russia. I am grateful to him for his courage, for not turning back."

    Sejourne arrived in the Ukrainian capital within hours of a combined missile-and-drone attack by Russia that triggered Ukrainian air defenses in several southern and eastern regions early on January 13.

    Sejourne's visit represented the latest Western show of support for Kyiv in its ongoing war to repel Russia's 22-month-old full-scale invasion.

    "For almost 2 years, Ukraine has been on the front line to defend its sovereignty and ensure the security of Europe," Sejourne said on X, formerly Twitter. "France's aid is long-term."

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    Ukraine has struggled to secure further funding for its campaign from the United States and the European Union, the latter of which is grappling with opposition from member Hungary.

    The French Foreign Ministry posted an image of Sejourne and said he'd "arrived in Kyiv for his first trip to the field, in order to continue French diplomatic action there and to reiterate France's commitment to its allies and alongside civilian populations."

    "Despite the multiplying crisis, Ukraine is and will remain France's priority," AFP later quoted Sejourne as saying in Kyiv. He said "the fundamental principles of international law and the values of Europe, as well as the security interests of the French" are at stake there.

    Earlier, the General Staff of Ukraine's military said Russia had launched 40 missiles and attack drones targeting Ukrainian territory.

    It said Ukrainian air defenses shot down eight of the incoming attacks and 20 others missed their targets. It said the Russian weapons included "winged, aerobic, ballistic, aviation, anti-controlled missiles, and impact BPLAs."

    They reportedly targeted the eastern Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions.

    RFE/RL cannot independently confirm claims by either side in areas of the heaviest combat.

    Air alerts sounded in several regions of Ukraine.

    A day earlier, Polish radio and other reports quoted recently inaugurated Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk as saying he would visit Ukraine soon to discuss joint security efforts and to talk about Polish truckers' grievances over EU advantages for Ukrainian haulers.

    Tusk, a former Polish leader and European Council president who was sworn in for a new term as Polish prime minister in mid-December, has been a vocal advocate of strong Polish and EU support for Ukraine.

    "I really want the Ukrainian problems of war and, more broadly security, as well as policy toward Russia, to be joint, so that not only the president and the prime minister, but the Polish state as a whole act in solidarity in these issues," Tusk said.

    The U.S. Congress has been divided over additional aid to Ukraine, with many Republicans opposing President Joe Biden's hopes for billions more in support.

    An EU aid proposal of around 50 billion euros ($55 billion) was blocked by Hungary, although other members have said they will pursue "technical" or other means of skirting Budapest's resistance as soon as possible.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned that delays in aid can severely hamper Ukrainians' ongoing efforts to defeat invading Russian forces.

    With reporting by RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Who Are The Huthi Rebels And What Are Their Links To Iran? https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/12/who-are-the-huthi-rebels-and-what-are-their-links-to-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/12/who-are-the-huthi-rebels-and-what-are-their-links-to-iran/#respond Fri, 12 Jan 2024 17:15:16 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=cf6ccaa30b05ed8fc1f69fb06a7de001
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/12/who-are-the-huthi-rebels-and-what-are-their-links-to-iran/feed/ 0 451474
    U.S. Announces Sanctions Against Companies That Support Funding Of Iranian-Backed Huthis https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/12/u-s-announces-sanctions-against-companies-that-support-funding-of-iranian-backed-huthis/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/12/u-s-announces-sanctions-against-companies-that-support-funding-of-iranian-backed-huthis/#respond Fri, 12 Jan 2024 16:34:08 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/us-sanctions-companies-funding-iran-backed-huthis-yemen/32772131.html

    U.S. and British forces have hit Iran-backed Huthi rebel military targets in Yemen -- -- an action immediately condemned by Tehran -- sparking fears around the world of a growing conflict in the Middle East as fighting rages in the Gaza Strip.

    U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement that the move was meant to show that the United States and its allies “will not tolerate” the Iran-backed rebel group’s increasing number of attacks in the Red Sea, which have threatened freedom of navigation and endangered U.S. personnel and civilian navigation.

    The rebels said that the air strikes, which occurred in an area already shaken by Israel's war with Hamas, a group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and European Union, totaled 73 and killed at least five people.

    "Today, at my direction, U.S. military forces -- together with the United Kingdom and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands -- successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Huthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital waterways," Biden said in a statement.

    “These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Huthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea -- including the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time in history,” Biden said of the international mission that also involved Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands.

    White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Biden approved the strikes after a Huthi attack on January 9. U.S. and British naval forces repelled that attack, shooting down drones and missiles fired by the Huthis from Yemen toward the southern Red Sea.

    Kirby said the United States does not want war with Yemen or a conflict of any kind but will not hesitate to take further action.

    "Everything the president has been doing has been trying to prevent any escalation of conflict, including the strikes last night," he said.

    The UN Security Council called an emergency meeting for later on January 12 over the strikes. The session was requested by Russia and will take place after a meeting to discuss the situation in Gaza.

    Huthi rebels have stepped up attacks on vessels in the Red Sea since Israel launched its war on Hamas over the group's surprise cross-border attack on October 7 that killed some 1,200 Israelis and saw dozens more taken hostage.

    The Huthis have claimed their targeting of navigation in the Red Sea is meant to show the group's support for the Palestinians and Hamas.

    Thousands of the rebels held protests in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, where they chanted “We aren’t discouraged. Let it be a major world war!”

    The White House said Huthi acts of piracy have affected more than 50 countries and forced more than 2,000 ships to make detours of thousands of kilometers to avoid the Red Sea. It said crews from more than 20 countries were either taken hostage or threatened by Huthi piracy.

    Kirby said a "battle damage assessment" to determine how much the Huthi capabilities had been degraded was ongoing.

    Britain said sites including airfields had been hit. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who is still hospitalized following complications from prostate cancer surgery, said earlier the strikes were aimed at Huthi drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles, as well as coastal radar and air surveillance capabilities.

    British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the strikes were "necessary and proportionate."

    "Despite the repeated warnings from the international community, the Huthis have continued to carry out attacks in the Red Sea," Sunak said in a statement.

    Iran immediately condemned the attacks saying they would bring further turbulence to the Middle East.

    "We strongly condemn the military attacks carried out this morning by the United States and the United Kingdom on several cities in Yemen," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kannani said in a post on Telegram.

    "These arbitrary actions are a clear violation of Yemen's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a violation of international laws and regulations. These attacks will only contribute to insecurity and instability in the region," he added.

    A Huthi spokesman said the attacks were unjustified and the rebels will keep targeting ships heading toward Israel.

    The Huthis, whose slogan is "Death to America, Death to Israel, curse the Jews and victory to Islam," are part of what has been described as the Iran-backed axis of resistance that also includes anti-Israel and anti-Western militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

    Huthi rebels have fought Yemen's government for decades. In 2014, they took the capital, Sanaa.

    While Iran has supplied them with weapons and aid, the Huthis say they are not Tehran's puppets and their main goal is to topple Yemen's "corrupt" leadership.

    With reporting by Reuters and dpa


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    U.S., U.K. Launch Strikes Against Iran-Backed Huthi Rebels In Response To Red Sea Attacks https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/12/u-s-u-k-launch-strikes-against-iran-backed-huthi-rebels-in-response-to-red-sea-attacks/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/12/u-s-u-k-launch-strikes-against-iran-backed-huthi-rebels-in-response-to-red-sea-attacks/#respond Fri, 12 Jan 2024 06:16:36 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/huthi-rebels-us-uk-strikes-yemen/32771307.html

    U.S. and British forces have hit Iran-backed Huthi rebel military targets in Yemen -- -- an action immediately condemned by Tehran -- sparking fears around the world of a growing conflict in the Middle East as fighting rages in the Gaza Strip.

    U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement that the move was meant to show that the United States and its allies “will not tolerate” the Iran-backed rebel group’s increasing number of attacks in the Red Sea, which have threatened freedom of navigation and endangered U.S. personnel and civilian navigation.

    The rebels said that the air strikes, which occurred in an area already shaken by Israel's war with Hamas, a group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and European Union, totaled 73 and killed at least five people.

    "Today, at my direction, U.S. military forces -- together with the United Kingdom and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands -- successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Huthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital waterways," Biden said in a statement.

    “These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Huthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea -- including the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time in history,” Biden said of the international mission that also involved Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands.

    White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Biden approved the strikes after a Huthi attack on January 9. U.S. and British naval forces repelled that attack, shooting down drones and missiles fired by the Huthis from Yemen toward the southern Red Sea.

    Kirby said the United States does not want war with Yemen or a conflict of any kind but will not hesitate to take further action.

    "Everything the president has been doing has been trying to prevent any escalation of conflict, including the strikes last night," he said.

    The UN Security Council called an emergency meeting for later on January 12 over the strikes. The session was requested by Russia and will take place after a meeting to discuss the situation in Gaza.

    Huthi rebels have stepped up attacks on vessels in the Red Sea since Israel launched its war on Hamas over the group's surprise cross-border attack on October 7 that killed some 1,200 Israelis and saw dozens more taken hostage.

    The Huthis have claimed their targeting of navigation in the Red Sea is meant to show the group's support for the Palestinians and Hamas.

    Thousands of the rebels held protests in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, where they chanted “We aren’t discouraged. Let it be a major world war!”

    The White House said Huthi acts of piracy have affected more than 50 countries and forced more than 2,000 ships to make detours of thousands of kilometers to avoid the Red Sea. It said crews from more than 20 countries were either taken hostage or threatened by Huthi piracy.

    Kirby said a "battle damage assessment" to determine how much the Huthi capabilities had been degraded was ongoing.

    Britain said sites including airfields had been hit. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who is still hospitalized following complications from prostate cancer surgery, said earlier the strikes were aimed at Huthi drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles, as well as coastal radar and air surveillance capabilities.

    British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the strikes were "necessary and proportionate."

    "Despite the repeated warnings from the international community, the Huthis have continued to carry out attacks in the Red Sea," Sunak said in a statement.

    Iran immediately condemned the attacks saying they would bring further turbulence to the Middle East.

    "We strongly condemn the military attacks carried out this morning by the United States and the United Kingdom on several cities in Yemen," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kannani said in a post on Telegram.

    "These arbitrary actions are a clear violation of Yemen's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a violation of international laws and regulations. These attacks will only contribute to insecurity and instability in the region," he added.

    A Huthi spokesman said the attacks were unjustified and the rebels will keep targeting ships heading toward Israel.

    The Huthis, whose slogan is "Death to America, Death to Israel, curse the Jews and victory to Islam," are part of what has been described as the Iran-backed axis of resistance that also includes anti-Israel and anti-Western militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

    Huthi rebels have fought Yemen's government for decades. In 2014, they took the capital, Sanaa.

    While Iran has supplied them with weapons and aid, the Huthis say they are not Tehran's puppets and their main goal is to topple Yemen's "corrupt" leadership.

    With reporting by Reuters and dpa


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    A Chance to Hold Israel and the US to Account for Genocide https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/11/a-chance-to-hold-israel-and-the-us-to-account-for-genocide-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/11/a-chance-to-hold-israel-and-the-us-to-account-for-genocide-2/#respond Thu, 11 Jan 2024 19:15:30 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=147300 The International Court of Justice. Photo credit: ICJ On January 11th, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is holding its first hearing in South Africa’s case against Israel under the Genocide Convention. The first provisional measure South Africa has asked of the court is to order an immediate end to this carnage, […]

    The post A Chance to Hold Israel and the US to Account for Genocide first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    The International Court of Justice. Photo credit: ICJ

    On January 11th, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is holding its first hearing in South Africa’s case against Israel under the Genocide Convention. The first provisional measure South Africa has asked of the court is to order an immediate end to this carnage, which has already killed more than 23,000 people, most of them women and children. Israel is trying  to bomb Gaza into oblivion and scatter the terrorized survivors across the Earth, meeting the Convention’s definition of genocide to the letter.

    Since countries engaged in genocide do not publicly declare their real goal, the greatest legal hurdle for any genocide prosecution is to prove the intention of genocide. But in the extraordinary case of Israel, whose cult of biblically ordained entitlement is backed to the hilt by unconditional U.S. complicity, its leaders have been uniquely brazen about their goal of destroying Gaza as a haven of Palestinian life, culture and resistance.

    South Africa’s 84-page application to the ICJ includes ten pages (starting on page 59) of statements by Israeli civilian and military officials that document their genocidal intentions in Gaza. They include statements by Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, Defense Minister Gallant, five other cabinet ministers, senior military officers and members of parliament. Reading these statements, it is hard to see how a fair and impartial court could fail to recognize the genocidal intent behind the death and devastation Israeli forces and American weapons are wreaking in Gaza.

    The Israeli magazine +972 talked to seven current and former Israeli intelligence officials involved in previous assaults on Gaza. They explained the systematic nature of Israel’s targeting practices and how the range of civilian infrastructure that Israel is targeting has been vastly expanded in the current onslaught. In particular, it has expanded the bombing of civilian infrastructure, or what it euphemistically defines as “power targets,” which have comprised half of its targets from the outset of this war.

    Israel’s “power targets” in Gaza include public buildings like hospitals, schools, banks, government offices, and high-rise apartment blocks. The public pretext for destroying Gaza’s civilian infrastructure is that civilians will blame Hamas for its destruction, and that this will undermine its civilian base of support. This kind of brutal logic has been proved wrong in U.S.-backed conflicts all over the world. In Gaza, it is no more than a grotesque fantasy. The Palestinians understand perfectly well who is bombing them – and who is supplying the bombs.

    Intelligence officials told +972 that Israel maintains extensive occupancy figures for every building in Gaza, and has precise estimates of how many civilians will be killed in each building it bombs. While Israeli and U.S. officials publicly disparage Palestinian casualty figures, intelligence sources told +972 that the Palestinian death counts are remarkably consistent with Israel’s own estimates of how many civilians it is killing. To make matters worse, Israel has started using artificial intelligence to generate targets with minimal human scrutiny, and is doing so faster than its forces can bomb them.

    Israeli officials claim that each of the high-rise apartment buildings it bombs contains some kind of Hamas presence, but an intelligence official explained, “Hamas is everywhere in Gaza; there is no building that does not have something of Hamas in it, so if you want to find a way to turn a high-rise into a target, you will be able to do so.” As Yuval Abraham of +972 summarized, “The sources understood, some explicitly and some implicitly, that damage to civilians is the real purpose of these attacks.”

    Two days after South Africa submitted its Genocide Convention application to the ICJ, Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich declared on New Year’s Eve that Israel should substantially empty the Gaza Strip of Palestinians and bring in Israeli settlers. “If we act in a strategically correct way and encourage emigration,” Smotrich said, “if there are 100,000 or 200,000 Arabs in Gaza, and not two million, the whole discourse on “the day after” will be completely different.”

    When reporters confronted U.S. State Department spokesman Matt Miller about Smotrich’s statement, and similar ones by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Miller replied that Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have reassured the United States that those statements don’t reflect Israeli government policy.

    But Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s statements followed a meeting of Likud Party leaders on Christmas Day where Netanyahu himself said that his plan was to continue the massacre until the people of Gaza have no choice but to leave or to die. “Regarding voluntary emigration, I have no problem with that,” he told former Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Danon. “Our problem is not allowing the exit, but a lack of countries that are ready to take Palestinians in. And we are working on it. This is the direction we are going in.”

    We should have learned from America’s lost wars that mass murder and ethnic cleansing rarely lead to political victory or success. More often they only feed deep resentment and desires for justice or revenge that make peace more elusive and conflict endemic.

    Although most of the martyrs in Gaza are women and children, Israel and the United States politically justify the massacre as a campaign to destroy Hamas by killing its senior leaders. Andrew Cockburn described in his book Kill Chain: the Rise of the High-Tech Assassins how, in 200 cases studied by U.S. military intelligence, the U.S. campaign to assassinate Iraqi resistance leaders in 2007 led in every single case to increased attacks on U.S. occupation forces. Every resistance leader they killed was replaced within 48 hours, invariably by new, more aggressive leaders determined to prove themselves by killing even more U.S. troops.

    But that is just another unlearned lesson, as Israel and the United States kill Islamic Resistance leaders in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Iran, risking a regional war and leaving themselves more isolated than ever.

    If the ICJ issues a provisional order for a ceasefire in Gaza, humanity must seize the moment to insist that Israel and the United States must finally end this genocide and accept that the rule of international law applies to all nations, including themselves.

    The post A Chance to Hold Israel and the US to Account for Genocide first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies.

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    Tall Tales and Murderous Restraint: Blinken on Gaza and Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/11/tall-tales-and-murderous-restraint-blinken-on-gaza-and-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/11/tall-tales-and-murderous-restraint-blinken-on-gaza-and-israel/#respond Thu, 11 Jan 2024 18:32:39 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=147298 The role of the US State Department regarding Israel’s continued obliteration of Gaza is becoming increasingly clear.  As the actions of the Israeli Defence Forces continue, the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, is full of meaningless statements about restraint and control, the protection of civilians, the imperatives of humanitarianism in war.  As the war continues, […]

    The post Tall Tales and Murderous Restraint: Blinken on Gaza and Israel first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    The role of the US State Department regarding Israel’s continued obliteration of Gaza is becoming increasingly clear.  As the actions of the Israeli Defence Forces continue, the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, is full of meaningless statements about restraint and control, the protection of civilians, the imperatives of humanitarianism in war.  As the war continues, so do those statements.

    As the new year began, an official from the White House expressed satisfaction at what appeared “to be the start of the gradual shift to lower-intensity operations in the north that we have been encouraging”.  But the revised Israeli approach did not “reflect any changes in the south”.  The monstrous death toll, in short, would continue to rise.

    As Washington feigns a reproachful attitude to the IDF’s grossly lethal tactics, claiming success in restraining them, another, failing front is also being pursued in the Arab world and beyond.  As Israel’s great defender, the US is attempting to hold back fury and consternation as the dirty deeds by their favourite ally in the Middle East are being executed.

    Blinken’s latest round of travelling has the flavour of swinging by tetchy neighbours to see how they are faring in the sea of blood and acrimony.  The itinerary includes Istanbul, Crete, Amman, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Al-’Ula, Tel Aviv, the West Bank, Manama and Cairo.  The State Department’s media release on January 4 outlines the obsolete agenda any sensible diplomat would do best to discard.  “Throughout his trip, the Secretary will underscore the importance of protecting civilian lives in Israel and the West Bank and Gaza; securing the release of all remaining hostages; our shared commitment to facilitating the increased, sustained delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and the resumption of essential services; and ensuring that Palestinians are not forcibly displaced in Gaza.”

    So far, Palestinians are being massacred by the IDF in Gaza, forcibly deprived of life-saving humanitarian assistance and essential services in a sustained act of strangulation while being forcibly displaced.  They are being oppressed, harassed and murdered by vigilante Israeli settlers in the West Bank, even as the army looks the other way.

    It follows that Blinken is telling tall stories and hoping that legs carry them far.  They are also being told as proceedings before the International Court of Justice instituted by South Africa commence to determine whether Israel’s conduct in Gaza satisfies the definition of genocide in international law.

    The strategy becomes clearer in the second part of the disingenuous traveller’s agenda.  Blinken “will also discuss urgent mechanisms to stem violence, calm rhetoric, and reduce regional tensions, including deterring Houthi attacks on commercial shopping in the Red Sea and avoiding escalation in Lebanon.”

    The Houthi attacks and the increasingly violent situation in Lebanon serve as golden distractions for Washington, since they give the Biden administration room to simultaneously claim to be preventing a widening of the conflict while permitting Israel’s butchery to continue.

    Corking the conflict, however, is not proving such a success.  The war is widening, even if reporting on the subject remains sketchy in the negligently lazy news outlets of the Anglosphere.  In addition to the bold moves of the Houthis and escalating violence on the border between Israel and Lebanon come ongoing, harrying efforts from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.  An Al-Mayadeen report on January 7 took note of an announcement from the group, also known as the Iraqi al-Najuba Movement, that it had fired an al-Arqab long-range cruise missile at Haifa “in support of our people in Gaza and in response to the massacres committed by the usurping entity against Palestinian civilians, including children, women, and the elderly.”

    A spokesperson for the Iraqi Resistance, Hussein al-Moussawi, was bullish in claiming that the group had the capacity to strike targets beyond Haifa.  Conditions to develop the group’s weapons had also been “favourable”.

    In a separate statement, the Islamic Resistance also revealed that its fighters had targeted an Israeli base on the occupied Golan Heights, usin drones.  To this can be added drone attacks on the US army base of Qasrok, located in the countryside of Hasakah in northeastern Syria, and the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq.  The base continues to host US forces.

    Perhaps the greatest canard of all in this briefest of trips by Blinken is the continued, now absurd claim, that Washington is committed “to working with partners to set the conditions necessary for peace in the Middle East, which includes comprehensive, tangible steps towards the realization of a future Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel, with both living in peace and security.”

    In his remarks to President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, Blinken showed the hardened ignorance that will ensure the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue in some form.  In his mind, a “reformed” Palestinian Authority will take over the reins of a ruined Gaza (“effective responsibility”) whatever the residents of Gaza think.

    Palestinians will never, given current conditions, be permitted sovereignty and anything remotely resembling a thriving, viable state.  Israel, whose very existence is based on predation, dispossession and war, will never permit a Palestinian entity to be given equal standing at the diplomatic or security table.  The US, in the tatty drag of an independent broker, will go along with the pantomime, promoting, as Blinken is, a sham, counterfeit form of autonomy, one forever subject to conditions, demarcations and restraints.  And one thing is almost certain about any future rump Palestinian entity: it will be deprived of any right to defend itself.

    The post Tall Tales and Murderous Restraint: Blinken on Gaza and Israel first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Binoy Kampmark.

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    U.S. Condemns ‘Unlawful’ Seizure Of Oil Tanker By Iranian Navy In Gulf Of Oman https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/11/u-s-condemns-unlawful-seizure-of-oil-tanker-by-iranian-navy-in-gulf-of-oman/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/11/u-s-condemns-unlawful-seizure-of-oil-tanker-by-iranian-navy-in-gulf-of-oman/#respond Thu, 11 Jan 2024 15:14:26 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-seizes-oil-tanker-oman-gulf-sanctions-nikolas/32770424.html More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

    The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

    Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

    Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

    Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

    And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

    With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

    "There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

    Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

    Oily Deficit

    Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

    But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

    The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

    But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

    Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
    An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

    And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

    Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

    For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

    Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

    Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

    Shipping Competition

    Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

    And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

    On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

    And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

    This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

    The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

    But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

    This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

    Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

    More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

    Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

    While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

    Uncertain Waters

    In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

    From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

    Sanctions Revisited

    The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

    That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

    "There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
    A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

    The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

    "My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

    Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

    As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

    "Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

    Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

    Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

    But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Iranian-German Citizen Taghavi Released On Furlough From Evin Prison https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/09/iranian-german-citizen-taghavi-released-on-furlough-from-evin-prison/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/09/iranian-german-citizen-taghavi-released-on-furlough-from-evin-prison/#respond Tue, 09 Jan 2024 19:27:34 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iranian-german-citizen-taghavi-released-furlough/32767654.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/09/iranian-german-citizen-taghavi-released-on-furlough-from-evin-prison/feed/ 0 450694
    Iranian Singer Sentenced To Prison, Lashes For Song Criticizing Hijab Law https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/09/iranian-singer-sentenced-to-prison-lashes-for-song-criticizing-hijab-law/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/09/iranian-singer-sentenced-to-prison-lashes-for-song-criticizing-hijab-law/#respond Tue, 09 Jan 2024 12:53:10 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-singer-yarrahi-prison-lashes/32767221.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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    French Minister Urges Iran To Stop ‘Destabilizing Acts’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/french-minister-urges-iran-to-stop-destabilizing-acts/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/french-minister-urges-iran-to-stop-destabilizing-acts/#respond Sat, 06 Jan 2024 17:57:02 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-french-colonna-stop-destabilizing-acts-escalation-middle-east/32763850.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/french-minister-urges-iran-to-stop-destabilizing-acts/feed/ 0 450043
    French Minister Urges Iran To Stop ‘Destabilizing Acts’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/french-minister-urges-iran-to-stop-destabilizing-acts-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/french-minister-urges-iran-to-stop-destabilizing-acts-2/#respond Sat, 06 Jan 2024 17:57:02 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-french-colonna-stop-destabilizing-acts-escalation-middle-east/32763850.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/french-minister-urges-iran-to-stop-destabilizing-acts-2/feed/ 0 450044
    Iran Says Death Toll From Twin Bombings Rises To 91 https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iran-says-death-toll-from-twin-bombings-rises-to-91/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iran-says-death-toll-from-twin-bombings-rises-to-91/#respond Sat, 06 Jan 2024 11:08:01 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-kerman-bombing-death-toll-91/32763647.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iran-says-death-toll-from-twin-bombings-rises-to-91/feed/ 0 450075
    Iranian Commander Challenges ‘Enemy’ Naval Presence In Region https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iranian-commander-challenges-enemy-naval-presence-in-region/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iranian-commander-challenges-enemy-naval-presence-in-region/#respond Sat, 06 Jan 2024 09:50:19 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-revolutionary-guards-salami-enemy-naval-presence/32763590.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iranian-commander-challenges-enemy-naval-presence-in-region/feed/ 0 450102
    Iranian Commander Challenges ‘Enemy’ Naval Presence In Region https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iranian-commander-challenges-enemy-naval-presence-in-region-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iranian-commander-challenges-enemy-naval-presence-in-region-2/#respond Sat, 06 Jan 2024 09:50:19 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-revolutionary-guards-salami-enemy-naval-presence/32763590.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/06/iranian-commander-challenges-enemy-naval-presence-in-region-2/feed/ 0 450103
    Iran Moves To Seal Borders With Afghanistan And Pakistan After Deadly Blasts https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iran-moves-to-seal-borders-with-afghanistan-and-pakistan-after-deadly-blasts/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iran-moves-to-seal-borders-with-afghanistan-and-pakistan-after-deadly-blasts/#respond Fri, 05 Jan 2024 18:49:57 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-shuts-borders-pakistan-afghanistan-kerman-bombings/32762978.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iran-moves-to-seal-borders-with-afghanistan-and-pakistan-after-deadly-blasts/feed/ 0 449825
    Iran Says Several Suspects Detained Over Suicide Bombings As Country Mourns Victims https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iran-says-several-suspects-detained-over-suicide-bombings-as-country-mourns-victims/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iran-says-several-suspects-detained-over-suicide-bombings-as-country-mourns-victims/#respond Fri, 05 Jan 2024 15:25:08 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-soleimani-bombings-suspects-arrested-mourning/32762825.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iran-says-several-suspects-detained-over-suicide-bombings-as-country-mourns-victims/feed/ 0 449847
    Iranian Shop Owner Sentenced To Two Years For Photo Without Head Scarf https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iranian-shop-owner-sentenced-to-two-years-for-photo-without-head-scarf/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/iranian-shop-owner-sentenced-to-two-years-for-photo-without-head-scarf/#respond Fri, 05 Jan 2024 12:59:11 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-head-scarf-two-year-sentence-photo/32762654.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    U.S. Puts Baku On Religious Freedom Watch List As Commission Takes Dim View Of Belarus Law https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/u-s-puts-baku-on-religious-freedom-watch-list-as-commission-takes-dim-view-of-belarus-law/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/05/u-s-puts-baku-on-religious-freedom-watch-list-as-commission-takes-dim-view-of-belarus-law/#respond Fri, 05 Jan 2024 06:14:21 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/religious-freedom-azerbaijan-belarus-united-states-report/32761553.html One person was killed and another injured in a Russian attack on an agricultural enterprise in the Kherson region, the head of the regional military administration said as Ukraine claimed its forces had carried out a successful operation on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula.

    Oleksandr Prokudin said a rocket attack on January 5 on the agricultural enterprise in Kherson killed a 35-year-old man and injured a 60-year-old resident.

    Prokudin said "four targeted strikes" also destroyed buildings and equipment.

    Russian troops regularly shell the de-occupied part of the Kherson region. Despite evidence and testimony to the contrary, Moscow denies targeting civilians.

    In a rare admission of its military operations in Crimea, Ukraine has admitted it carried out attacks on a Russian military command post and a military unit in separate strikes on the Russia-occupied peninsula, saying it had inflicted "serious damage" to Russia's defense system.

    Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

    RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

    Nataliya Humenyuk, the spokeswoman of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, said on January 5 that "really powerful combat" operations took place earlier this week, hitting Russia's military operations in Crimea especially hard.

    "Not only one command post was affected," she said in a rare detailing of Ukrainian operations to repel the full-scale invasion Russia launched in February 2022.

    "Now they have the same hysteria with movement again. They are trying to maneuver and position both the defense systems themselves and the objects they protect in other places," she added in an interview on the show Social Resistance.

    It was not possible to verify Humenyuk's claims.

    The attacks on Crimea come after an intensification of Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine.

    Russian hypersonic and other missile attacks combined with drone strikes blanketed Ukraine on December 29 and again on January 2, killing more than 40 people and injuring dozens more. Ukraine hit back with attacks in southern Russia on December 30. Authorities in the Belgorod region said 25 people were killed.

    The risk of air attacks continued on January 5 as sirens rang out three times across the Crimean city of Sevastopol on January 5, though there were no reports of explosions or impacts from drones or missiles.

    In the early hours of January 5, the Russian city of Belgorod also was targeted by another round of Ukrainian shelling, officials said, hours after schools in the region were ordered to extend their holiday closures due to the risk of further attacks.

    Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov also gave residents an opportunity to evacuate to safer areas. Residents will be helped to move to temporary accommodations in the other cities.

    Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak on January 5 joined the United States in saying that Russia has hit Ukraine with missiles supplied by North Korea for the first time since launching its full-scale invasion.

    Podolyak's statement came after the governor of the northeastern region of Kharkiv said that it had been struck by missiles fired by Russia that were not Russian-made.

    "There is no longer any disguise. The #Moscow regime is no longer concealing its intentions, nor is it trying to pass off a large-scale war of aggression as mythical 'denazification,'" Podolyak said on X, formerly Twitter.


    Russia "is attacking Ukrainians with missiles received from a state where citizens are tortured in concentration camps for having an unregistered radio, talking to a tourist, watching TV shows," he added.

    He did not provide evidence for the missiles being North Korean, but his statements come a day after U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters at the White House on January 4 that recently declassified intelligence found that North Korea has provided Russia with ballistic-missile launchers and several ballistic missiles.

    Russian forces fired at least one of those missiles into Ukraine on December 30, and it landed in an open field in the Zaporizhzhya region, Kirby said. Russia also launched multiple North Korean ballistic missiles on January 2 as part of an overnight attack, he added.

    Kirby also said Russia is seeking close-range ballistic missiles from Iran. A deal has not been completed, but the United States is concerned that negotiations "are actively advancing.”

    With reporting by Reuters


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Deadly Bombing in Iran Kills Dozens as Tensions Rise Across the Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east-2/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 15:33:12 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=aa64861202b9427c84fb36c90655e98c
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Deadly Bombing in Iran Kills Dozens as Tensions Rise Across the Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 13:11:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=83600c779caba8daa9e089133a22aaaa Seg1 guest iran blast med split

    Twin explosions in the Iranian province of Kerman killed dozens and injured hundreds Wednesday at a memorial for top Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated in a U.S. drone strike four years ago in Iraq. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iran has placed blame on Israel and the U.S, while U.S. officials and regional experts have suggested ISIS as the culprit. Our guest, Iranian historian Arash Azizi, discusses the potential sources of the attack, the scale of the tragedy — which occurred on Mother’s Day in Iran and may count among its victims civilians visiting their mothers’ graves — and fears of wider war in the midst of Israel’s ongoing violence in Gaza. Azizi, who has authored a book on Soleimani’s assassination, calls the double blast “one of the deadliest — if not the deadliest — attacks of its kind in recent history.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Deadly Bombing in Iran Kills Dozens as Tensions Rise Across the Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 13:11:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=83600c779caba8daa9e089133a22aaaa Seg1 guest iran blast med split

    Twin explosions in the Iranian province of Kerman killed dozens and injured hundreds Wednesday at a memorial for top Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated in a U.S. drone strike four years ago in Iraq. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iran has placed blame on Israel and the U.S, while U.S. officials and regional experts have suggested ISIS as the culprit. Our guest, Iranian historian Arash Azizi, discusses the potential sources of the attack, the scale of the tragedy — which occurred on Mother’s Day in Iran and may count among its victims civilians visiting their mothers’ graves — and fears of wider war in the midst of Israel’s ongoing violence in Gaza. Azizi, who has authored a book on Soleimani’s assassination, calls the double blast “one of the deadliest — if not the deadliest — attacks of its kind in recent history.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Deadly Bombing in Iran Kills Dozens as Tensions Rise Across the Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 13:11:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=83600c779caba8daa9e089133a22aaaa Seg1 guest iran blast med split

    Twin explosions in the Iranian province of Kerman killed dozens and injured hundreds Wednesday at a memorial for top Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated in a U.S. drone strike four years ago in Iraq. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iran has placed blame on Israel and the U.S, while U.S. officials and regional experts have suggested ISIS as the culprit. Our guest, Iranian historian Arash Azizi, discusses the potential sources of the attack, the scale of the tragedy — which occurred on Mother’s Day in Iran and may count among its victims civilians visiting their mothers’ graves — and fears of wider war in the midst of Israel’s ongoing violence in Gaza. Azizi, who has authored a book on Soleimani’s assassination, calls the double blast “one of the deadliest — if not the deadliest — attacks of its kind in recent history.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/feed/ 0 449427
    Deadly Bombing in Iran Kills Dozens as Tensions Rise Across the Middle East https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/deadly-bombing-in-iran-kills-dozens-as-tensions-rise-across-the-middle-east/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 13:11:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=83600c779caba8daa9e089133a22aaaa Seg1 guest iran blast med split

    Twin explosions in the Iranian province of Kerman killed dozens and injured hundreds Wednesday at a memorial for top Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated in a U.S. drone strike four years ago in Iraq. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iran has placed blame on Israel and the U.S, while U.S. officials and regional experts have suggested ISIS as the culprit. Our guest, Iranian historian Arash Azizi, discusses the potential sources of the attack, the scale of the tragedy — which occurred on Mother’s Day in Iran and may count among its victims civilians visiting their mothers’ graves — and fears of wider war in the midst of Israel’s ongoing violence in Gaza. Azizi, who has authored a book on Soleimani’s assassination, calls the double blast “one of the deadliest — if not the deadliest — attacks of its kind in recent history.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Russia Has Used North Korean Ballistic Missiles In Ukraine, Is Seeking Iranian Missiles, U.S. Says https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/russia-has-used-north-korean-ballistic-missiles-in-ukraine-is-seeking-iranian-missiles-u-s-says/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/russia-has-used-north-korean-ballistic-missiles-in-ukraine-is-seeking-iranian-missiles-u-s-says/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 12:58:56 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-purchasing-iran-missiles-ukraine-war/32759893.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Over 100 Dead After Explosions In Iran At IRGC Commander Soleimani’s Memorial https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/over-100-dead-after-explosions-in-iran-at-irgc-commander-soleimanis-memorial/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/over-100-dead-after-explosions-in-iran-at-irgc-commander-soleimanis-memorial/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 07:46:05 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=8c27237479c8d543cfb6c97800823fb3
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Islamic State Claims Its Suicide Bombers Were Responsible For Deadly Blasts In Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/islamic-state-claims-its-suicide-bombers-were-responsible-for-deadly-blasts-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/islamic-state-claims-its-suicide-bombers-were-responsible-for-deadly-blasts-in-iran/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 07:35:46 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-kerman-soleimani-blasts-us-israel-involvement/32759460.html We asked some of our most perceptive journalists and analysts to anticipate tomorrow, to unravel the future, to forecast what the new year could have in store for our vast broadcast region. Among their predictions:

    • The war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
    • In Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy.
    • In Belarus, setbacks for Russia in Ukraine could prompt the Lukashenka regime to attempt to normalize relations with the West.
    • While 2024 will see a rightward shift in the EU, it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting.
    • The vicious spiral for women in Afghanistan will only worsen.
    • Peace between Armenia and its neighbors could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region.
    • Hungary's upcoming leadership of the European Council could prove a stumbling block to the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
    • Kyrgyzstan is on course to feel the pain of secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the West's patience runs out.

    Here, then, are our correspondents' predictions for 2024. To find out more about the authors themselves, click on their bylines.

    The Ukraine War: A Prolonged Stalemate

    By Vitaliy Portnikov

    In September 2022, Ukrainian generals Valeriy Zaluzhniy and Mykhaylo Zabrodskiy presciently warned that Russia's aggression against Ukraine would unfold into a protracted conflict. Fast forward 15 months, and the front line is effectively frozen, with neither Ukrainian nor Russian offensives yielding substantial changes.

    As 2023 comes to a close, observers find themselves revisiting themes familiar from the previous year: the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, the extent of Western aid to Kyiv, the possibility of a "frozen conflict,” security assurances for Ukraine, and the prospects for its Euro-Atlantic integration ahead of a NATO summit.

    It is conceivable that, by the close of 2024, we will still be grappling with these same issues. A political resolution seems elusive, given the Kremlin's steadfast refusal to entertain discussions on vacating the parts of Ukraine its forces occupy. Conversely, Ukraine’s definition of victory is the full restoration of its territorial integrity.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory -- whether through the liberation of part of Ukraine or Russia seizing control of additional regions -- it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution. Acknowledging this impasse is crucial, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine is part of a broader agenda: a push to reestablish, if not the Soviet Empire, at least its sphere of influence.

    Even if, in 2024, one side achieves a military victory, it won't necessarily bring us closer to a political resolution.

    For Ukraine, resistance to Russian aggression is about not just reclaiming occupied territories but also safeguarding statehood, political identity, and national integrity. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival and the restoration of its territorial integrity. However, this backing aims to avoid escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and the West on Russia's sovereign territory.

    The war's conclusion seems contingent on the depletion of resources on one of the two sides, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues. Hence, 2024 might echo the patterns of 2023. Even if external factors shift significantly -- such as in the U.S. presidential election in November -- we might not witness tangible changes until 2025.

    Another potential variable is the emergence of major conflicts akin to the war in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, this would likely signify the dissipation of Western resources rather than a shift in approaches to war.

    In essence, the war in Ukraine will persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable. Constructing a new world order demands unconventional measures, such as offering genuine security guarantees to nations victimized by aggression or achieving peace, or at least limiting the zone of military operations to the current contact line, without direct agreements with Russia.

    So far, such understanding is lacking, and the expectation that Moscow will eventually grasp the futility of its ambitions only emboldens Putin. Consequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will endure, potentially spawning new, equally perilous local wars worldwide.

    Iran: Problems Within And Without

    By Hannah Kaviani

    Iran has been dealing with complex domestic and international challenges for years and the same issues are likely to plague it in 2024. But officials in Tehran appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach to its lengthy list of multilayered problems.

    Iran enters 2024 as Israel's war in Gaza continues and the prospects for a peaceful Middle East are bleak, with the situation exacerbated by militia groups firmly supported by Tehran.

    Iran’s prominent role in supporting paramilitary forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has also drawn the ire of the international community and will continue to be a thorn in the side of relations with the West.

    Tehran has refused to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program, resulting in an impasse in talks with the international community. And with the United States entering an election year that could see the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the likelihood of Tehran and Washington resuming negotiations -- which could lead to a reduction in sanctions -- is considered very low.

    But Iran's problems are not limited to outside its borders.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy.

    The country’s clerical regime is still reeling from the massive protests that began in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after her arrest for not obeying hijab rules. The aftershocks of the Women, Life, Freedom movement that emanated from her death were reflected in acts of civil disobedience that are likely to continue in 2024.

    At the same time, a brutal crackdown continues as civil rights activists, students, religious minorities, and artists are being beaten, detained, and/or given harsh prison sentences.

    With parliamentary elections scheduled for March, the government is likely to face yet another challenge to its legitimacy as it struggles with low voter turnout and general disinterest in another round of controlled elections.

    Another critical issue Iranian officials must continue to deal with in 2024 is the devastated economy resulting from the slew of international sanctions because of its controversial nuclear program. After a crushing year of 47 percent inflation in 2023 (a 20-year high, according to the IMF), costs are expected to continue to rise for many foods and commodities, as well as real estate.

    Iran’s widening budget deficit due to reduced oil profits continues to cripple the economy, with the IMF reporting that the current government debt is equal to three annual budgets.

    With neither the international community nor the hard-line Tehran regime budging, most analysts see scant chances for significant changes in Iran in the coming year.

    Belarus: Wider War Role, Integration With Russia Not In The Cards

    By Valer Karbalevich

    Belarus has been pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit than ever by Russia’s war in Ukraine -- but in 2024, it’s unlikely to be subsumed into the much larger nation to its east, and chances are it won’t step up its so-far limited involvement in the conflict in the country to its south.

    The most probable scenario in Belarus, where the authoritarian Alyaksandr Lukashenka will mark 30 years since he came to power in 1994, is more of the same: No letup in pressure on all forms of dissent at home, no move to send troops to Ukraine. And while Russia’s insistent embrace will not loosen, the Kremlin will abstain from using Belarusian territory for any new ground attacks or bombardments of Ukraine.

    But the war in Ukraine is a wild card, the linchpin influencing the trajectory of Belarus in the near term and beyond. For the foreseeable future, what happens in Belarus -- or to it -- will depend in large part on what happens in Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

    Should the current equilibrium on the front persist and Western support for Ukraine persist, the likelihood is a continuation of the status quo for Belarus. The country will maintain its allegiance to Russia, marked by diplomatic and political support. Bolstered by Russian loans, Belarus's defense industry will further expand its output.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories in Ukraine, Lukashenka will reap "victory dividends."

    The Belarusian state will continue to militarize the border with Ukraine, posing a perpetual threat to Kyiv and diverting Ukrainian troops from the eastern and southern fronts. At the same time, however, Russia is unlikely to use Belarusian territory as a launching point for fresh assaults on Ukraine, as it did at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    If Russia wins or scores substantial victories -- if Ukraine is forced into negotiations on Moscow’s terms, for example, or the current front line comes to be considered the international border -- Lukashenka, consolidating his position within the country, will reap "victory dividends." But relations between Belarus and Russia are unlikely to change dramatically.

    Potentially, Moscow could take major steps to absorb Belarus, diminishing its sovereignty and transforming its territory into a staging ground for a fresh assault on Kyiv. This would increase tensions with the West and heighten concerns about the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow and Minsk say Russia has transferred to Belarus. However, this seems unlikely due to the absence of military necessity for Moscow and the problems it could create on the global stage.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Moscow in April

    The loss of Belarusian sovereignty would pose a major risk for Lukashenka and his regime. An overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the direct involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine. This fundamental distinction sets Belarus apart from Russia, and bringing Belarus into the war could trigger a political crisis in Belarus -- an outcome Moscow would prefer to avoid.

    If Russia loses the war or sustains significant defeats that weaken Putin, Lukashenka's regime may suffer economic and political repercussions. This could prompt him to seek alternative global alliances, potentially leading to an attempt to normalize relations with the West.

    Russia, Ukraine, And The West: Sliding Toward World War III

    By Sergei Medvedev

    2024 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine and for the entire international system, which is quickly unraveling before our eyes. The most crucial of many challenges is a revanchist, resentful, belligerent Russia, bent on destroying and remaking the world order. In his mind, President Vladimir Putin is fighting World War III, and Ukraine is a prelude to a global showdown.

    Despite Western sanctions, Russia has consolidated its position militarily, domestically, and internationally in 2023. After setbacks and shocks in 2022, the military has stabilized the front and addressed shortages of arms, supplies, and manpower. Despite latent discontent, the population is not ready to question the war, preferring to stay in the bubble of learned ignorance and the lies of state propaganda.

    Here are four scenarios for 2024:

    Strategic stalemate in Ukraine, chaos in the international system: The West, relaxed by a 30-year “peace dividend,” lacks the vision and resolve of the 1980s, when its leaders helped bring about the U.S.S.R.’s collapse, let alone the courage of those who stood up to Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin’s challenge to the free world is no less significant than Hitler’s was, but there is no Roosevelt or Churchill in sight. Probability: 70 percent

    While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the Russian empire could crumble at the edges.

    Widening war, collapse or division of Ukraine: Russia could defend and consolidate its gains in Ukraine, waging trench warfare while continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure, and may consider a side strike in Georgia or Moldova -- or against Lithuania or Poland, testing NATO. A frontal invasion is less likely than a hybrid operation by “unidentified” units striking from Belarus, acts of sabotage, or unrest among Russian-speakers in the Baltic states. Other Kremlin operations could occur anywhere in the world. The collapse of Ukraine’s government or the division of the country could not be ruled out. Probability: 15 percent.

    Russia loses in Ukraine: A military defeat for Russia, possibly entailing a partial or complete withdrawal from Ukraine. Consistent Western support and expanded supplies of arms, like F-16s or Abrams tanks, or a big move such as closing the skies over Ukraine, could provide for this outcome. It would not necessarily entail Russia’s collapse -- it could further consolidate the nation around Putin’s regime. Russia would develop a resentful identity grounded in loss and defeat -- and harbor the idea of coming back with a vengeance. Probability: 10 percent

    Russia’s Collapse: A military defeat in Ukraine could spark social unrest, elite factional battles, and an anti-Putin coup, leading to his demotion or violent death. Putin’s natural death, too, could set off a succession struggle, causing chaos in a country he has rid of reliable institutions. While breakup into many regions is unlikely, the empire could crumble at the edges -- Kaliningrad, Chechnya, the Far East – like in 1917 and 1991. Russia’s nuclear weapons would be a big question mark, leading to external involvement and possible de-nuclearization. For all its perils, this scenario might provide a framework for future statehood in Northern Eurasia. Probability: 5 percent

    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.
    The ruins of the Ukrainian town of Maryinka are seen earlier this year following intense fighting with invading Russian forces.

    EU: 'Fortress Europe' And The Ukraine War

    By Rikard Jozwiak

    2024 will see a rightward shift in the European Union, but it is unlikely to bring the deluge of populist victories that some are predicting since Euroskeptics won national elections in the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia and polled well in Austria and Germany.

    The European Parliament elections in June will be the ultimate test for the bloc in that respect. Polls still suggest the two main political groups, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will finish on top, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. But right-wing populist parties are likely to fail once again to agree on the creation of a single political group, thus eroding their influence in Brussels.

    This, in turn, is likely to prod more pro-European groups into combining forces again to divvy up EU top jobs like the presidencies of the European Commission, the bloc's top executive body, and the European Council, which defines the EU's political direction and priorities. Center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is widely tipped to get a second term, even though she might fancy NATO's top job as secretary-general. Charles Michel, on the other hand, will definitely be out as European Council president after serving the maximum five years.

    While right-wing populists may not wield major influence in the horse-trading for those top jobs, they will affect policy going forward. They have already contributed to a hardening of attitudes on migration, and you can expect to hear more of the term "fortress Europe" as barriers go up on the EU's outer border.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO.

    The biggest question for 2024, however, is about how much support Brussels can provide Ukraine going forward. Could the "cost-of-living crisis" encourage members to side with Budapest to block financial aid or veto the start of de facto accession talks with that war-torn country? The smart money is still on the EU finding a way to green-light both those decisions in 2024, possibly by unfreezing more EU funds for Budapest.

    Although it seems like a remote possibility, patience could also finally wear out with Hungary, and the other 26 members could decide to strip it of voting rights in the Council of the European Union, which amends, approves, and vetoes European Commission proposals -- essentially depriving it of influence. In that respect, Austria and Slovakia, Budapest's two biggest allies right now, are the EU countries to watch.

    The one surefire guarantee in Europe isn't about the European Union at all but rather about NATO: After somehow failing to join as predicted for each of the past two years, against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden will become the transatlantic military alliance's 32nd member once the Turkish and Hungarian parliaments vote to ratify its accession protocol.

    Caucasus: A Peace Agreement Could Be Transformative

    By Josh Kucera

    Could 2024 be the year that Armenia and Azerbaijan finally formally resolve decades of conflict?

    This year, Azerbaijan effectively decided -- by force -- their most contentious issue: the status of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. With its lightning offensive in September, Azerbaijan placed Karabakh firmly under its control. Both sides now say they've reached agreement on most of their fundamental remaining issues, and diplomatic talks, after an interruption, appear set to resume.

    A resolution of the conflict could transform the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace, a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could soon follow. Borders between the three countries would reopen as a result, ending Armenia's long geographical isolation and priming the South Caucasus to take full advantage of new transportation projects seeking to ship cargo between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia.

    Peace between Armenia and its neighbors also could set the stage for a Russian exit from the region. Russian-Armenian security cooperation has been predicated on potential threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey. With those threats reduced, what's keeping the Russian soldiers, peacekeepers, and border guards there?

    There are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.

    A Russian exit would be a messy process -- Moscow still holds many economic levers in Armenia -- but Yerevan could seek help from the United States and Europe to smooth any transition. Washington and Brussels have seemingly been waiting in the wings, nudging Armenia in their direction.

    But none of this is likely to happen without a peace agreement. And while there don't seem to be any unresolvable issues remaining, there are mounting indications that Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace. Baku has gotten what it wanted most of all -- full control of Karabakh -- without an agreement. And maintaining a simmering conflict with Armenia could arguably serve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev well, as it would allow him to continue to lean on a reliable source of public support: rallying against an Armenian enemy.

    But perhaps the most conspicuous indication of a broader strategy is Aliyev's increasing invocation of "Western Azerbaijan" -- a hazily defined concept alluding to ethnic Azerbaijanis who used to live on the territory of what is now Armenia and their presumed right to return to their homes. It suggests that Azerbaijan might keep furthering its demands in hopes that Armenia finally throws in the towel, and each can accuse the other of intransigence.

    Hungary: The Return Of Big Brother?

    By Pablo Gorondi

    Critics might be tempted to believe that Big Brother will be watching over Hungarians in 2024 like at no point since the fall of communism.

    A new law on the Defense of National Sovereignty will allow the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty, which the law created, to investigate and request information from almost any group in Hungary that receives foreign funding. This will apply to civic groups, political parties, private businesses, media companies -- in fact, anyone deemed to be conducting activities (including "information manipulation and disinformation") in the interests of a foreign "body, organization, or person."

    The law has been criticized by experts from the United Nations and the Council of Europe over its seemingly vague language, lack of judicial oversight, and fears that it could be used by the government "to silence and stigmatize independent voices and opponents."

    The head of the Office for the Defense of Sovereignty should be nominated for a six-year term by right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban and appointed by President Katalin Novak by February 1. This would allow the new authority to carry out investigations and present findings ahead of simultaneous elections to the European Parliament and Hungarian municipal bodies in early June -- possibly influencing their outcomes.

    Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels."

    Asked by RFE/RL's Hungarian Service, some experts said fears of the new authority are overblown and that the government is more likely to use it as a threat hanging over opponents than as a direct tool for repression -- at least until it finds it politically necessary or expedient to tighten control.

    On the international scene, meanwhile, Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, a few weeks after voting to determine the composition of a new European Parliament.

    MEPs from Orban's Fidesz party exited the center-right European People's Party bloc in 2021 and have not joined another group since then, although some observers expect them to join the more Euroskeptic and nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists.

    Orban has for years predicted a breakthrough of more radical right-wing forces in Europe. But while that has happened in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia, experts suggest that's not enough to fuel a significant shift in the European Parliament, where the center-right and center-left should continue to hold a clear majority.

    Because of the June elections, the European Parliament's activities will initially be limited -- and its election of a European Commission president could prove complicated. Nevertheless, Orban has said in recent interviews that he wants to "fix the European Union" and that "we need to take over Brussels." So, Hungary's leadership may make progress difficult on issues that Orban opposes, like the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine or a possible reelection bid by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.
    Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for an EU summit in Brussels on December 14.

    Stability And The 'Serbian World'

    By Gjeraqina Tuhina and Milos Teodorovic

    Gjeraqina Tuhina
    Gjeraqina Tuhina

    Serbia, once again, will be a key player in the region -- and its moves could significantly shape events in the Balkans over the next 12 months.

    For over a decade, the dialogue to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province Kosovo has stymied both countries. Then, in February in Brussels and March in Ohrid, North Macedonia, European mediators announced a path forward and its implementation. There was only one problem: There was no signature on either side. Nine months later, little has changed.

    Many eyes are looking toward one aspect in particular -- a renewed obligation for Pristina to allow for an "appropriate level of self-management" for the Serb minority in Kosovo. This also entails creating possibilities for financial support from Serbia to Kosovar Serbs and guarantees for direct communication of the Serb minority with the Kosovar government.

    Milos Teodorovic
    Milos Teodorovic

    In October, EU mediators tried again, and with German, French, and Italian backing presented both parties with a new draft for an association of Serb-majority municipalities. Both sides accepted the draft. EU envoy to the region Miroslav Lajcak suggested in December that the Ohrid agreement could be implemented by the end of January. If that happened, it would mark a decisive step for both sides in a dialogue that began in 2011.

    "The Serbian world" is a phrase launched a few years ago by pro-Russian Serbian politician Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime cabinet minister who until recently headed the Serbian Intelligence Service. It is not officially part of the agenda of either Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic or the government, but it underscores the influence that Serbia seeks to wield from Kosovo and Montenegro to Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But how Vucic chooses to exert the implicit ties to Serb leaders and nationalists in those countries could do much to promote stability -- or its antithesis -- in the Balkans in 2024.

    Another major challenge for Vucic revolves around EU officials' request that candidate country Serbia harmonize its foreign policy with the bloc. So far, along with Turkey, Serbia is the only EU candidate that has not introduced sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is unclear how far the Serbian president is willing to push back to foster ongoing good relations with Moscow.

    But first, Serbia will have to confront the fallout from snap elections in December dominated by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party but rejected by the newly united opposition as fraudulent. The results sparked nightly protests in the capital and hunger strikes by a half-dozen lawmakers and other oppositionists. A new parliament is scheduled to hold a session by the end of January 2024, and the margins are seemingly razor-thin for control of the capital, Belgrade.

    Central Asia: Don't Write Russia Off Just Yet

    By Chris Rickleton

    Will the empire strike back? 2023 has been a galling year for Russia in Central Asia as it watched its traditional partners (and former colonies) widen their diplomatic horizons.

    With Russia bogged down in a grueling war in Ukraine, Moscow has less to offer the region than ever before. Central Asia’s five countries have made the most of the breathing space, with their leaders holding landmark talks with U.S. and German leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron also waltzed into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with multibillion-dollar investments.

    And China has reinforced its dominant position in the region, while Turkey has also increased its influence.

    But don’t write Russia off just yet.

    One of Moscow’s biggest wins in the neighborhood this year was an agreement to supply Uzbekistan with nearly 3 billion cubic meters of gas every year, a figure that could increase.

    Power deficits in Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan are the most obvious short-term sources of leverage for Moscow over those important countries.

    The coming year will likely bring more in terms of specifics over both governments’ plans for nuclear power production, with Russia fully expected to be involved.

    And Moscow’s confidence in a region that it views as its near abroad will only increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine.

    Tajikistan

    Tajikistan’s hereditary succession has been expected for so long that people have stopped expecting it. Does that mean it is back on the cards for 2024? Probably not.

    In 2016, Tajikistan passed a raft of constitutional changes aimed at cementing the ruling Rahmon family’s hold on power. Among them was one lowering the age to run for president from 35 to 30.

    Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    That amendment had an obvious beneficiary -- veteran incumbent Emomali Rahmon’s upwardly mobile son, Rustam Emomali. But Emomali is now 36 and, despite occupying a political post that makes him next in line, doesn’t look any closer to becoming numero uno.

    Perhaps there hasn’t been a good time to do it.

    From the coronavirus pandemic to a bloody crackdown on unrest in the Gorno-Badakhshan region and now the shadows cast by the Ukraine war, there have been plenty of excuses to delay the inevitable.

    Turkmenistan

    But perhaps Rahmon is considering events in Turkmenistan, where Central Asia’s first father-son power transition last year has ended up nothing of the sort. Rather than growing into the role, new President Serdar Berdymukhammedov is shrinking back into the shadow of his all-powerful father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.

    And this seems to be exactly how the older Berdymukhammedov wanted it, subsequently fashioning himself a post-retirement post that makes his son and the rest of the government answerable to him.

    But Turkmenistan’s bizarre new setup begs a question: If you’re not ready to let it go, why not hold on a little longer?

    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov
    Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov in front of a portrait of his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov

    Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan

    Writing on X (formerly Twitter) in November, a former IMF economist argued that Kyrgyzstan would be the "perfect test case" for secondary sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Robin Brooks described the country as "small, not remotely systemically important, and very clearly facilitating trade diversion to Russia."

    Official statistics show that countries in the Eurasian Economic Union that Moscow leads have become a “backdoor” around the Western-led sanctions targeting Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan from several EU countries this year, for example, are up by at least 1,000 percent compared to 2019.

    Data for exports to Kazakhstan shows similar patterns -- with larger volumes but gentler spikes -- while investigations by RFE/RL indicate that companies in both Central Asian countries have forwarded “dual-use” products that benefit the Kremlin’s military machine.

    Belarus is the only Russian ally to get fully sanctioned for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine -- but will that change in 2024?

    Central Asian governments will argue they have resisted Russian pressure to provide political and military support for the war. They might even whisper that their big friend China is much more helpful to Russia.

    But the West’s approach of targeting only Central Asian companies actively flouting the regime is failing.

    So, while Western diplomats continue to credit the region’s governments for their anti-evasion efforts, their patience may wear out. And if it does, Kyrgyzstan might be first to find out.

    Afghanistan: The Vicious Spiral Will Worsen

    By Malali Bashir

    With little internal threat to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and the failure of the international community to affect change in the hard-line Islamist regime’s policies, the Taliban mullahs’ control over the country continues to tighten.

    And that regime’s continued restrictions on Afghan women -- their rights, freedom, and role in society -- signals a bleak future for them in 2024 and beyond.

    Many observers say the move by the Taliban in December to only allow girls to attend religious madrasahs -- after shutting down formal schooling for them following the sixth grade -- is an effort by the Taliban to radicalize Afghan society.

    “Madrasahs are not an alternative to formal schooling because they don’t produce doctors, lawyers, journalists, engineers, etc. The idea of [only] having madrasahs is…about brainwashing [people] to create an extremist society,” says Shukria Barakzai, the former Afghan ambassador to Norway.

    The crackdown on women’s rights by the Taliban will also continue the reported uptick in domestic violence in the country, activists say.

    Since the Taliban shut down Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission and Women Affairs Ministry, women find themselves with nowhere to turn to and find it extremely difficult to seek justice in Taliban courts.

    The Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society.

    With no justice for victims of abuse on the horizon, women’s rights activists say violence against women will continue with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

    Barakzai argues that Taliban officials have already normalized domestic violence and do not consider it a crime.

    “According to [a Taliban] decree, you can [confront] women if they are not listening to [your requests]. Especially a male member of the family is allowed to use all means to punish women if they refuse to follow his orders. That is basically a call for domestic violence,” she said.

    The vicious spiral for women will only worsen.

    Being banned from education, work, and public life, Afghan women say the resulting psychological impact leads to panic, depression, and acute mental health crises.

    Although there are no official figures, Afghan mental health professionals and foreign organizations have noted a disturbing surge in female suicides in the two years since the Taliban came to power.

    "If we look at the women who were previously working or studying, 90 percent suffer from mental health issues now," said Mujeeb Khpalwak, a psychiatrist in Kabul. "They face tremendous economic uncertainty after losing their work and are very anxious about their future."

    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.
    A Taliban fighter stands guard as women wait to receive food rations in Kabul in May.

    Heather Bar, associate director of the women's rights division at Human Rights Watch, says, "It's not surprising that we're hearing reports of Afghan girls committing suicide. Because all their rights, including going to school, university, and recreational places have been taken away from them."

    Promising young Afghan women who once aspired to contribute to their communities after pursuing higher education now find themselves with no career prospects.

    “I do not see any future. When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” a former medical student in Kabul told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

    Despite immense global pressure, the Taliban seems adamant about maintaining its severe limits on women and reducing their role in society. This will result in a tragic future for the women of Afghanistan with no relief in sight.


    This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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    Gaza, Saudi, Iran, Venezuela and More https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/gaza-saudi-iran-venezuela-and-more/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/04/gaza-saudi-iran-venezuela-and-more/#respond Thu, 04 Jan 2024 06:59:31 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=309791 It would have been outlandish to suggest that a small region like Gaza, seemingly bereft of significant natural resources, political will of its own, and let alone sovereignty, would become the world’s most significant geopolitical spot on earth. The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza and the legendary resistance of the Palestinian people, however, have changed More

    The post Gaza, Saudi, Iran, Venezuela and More appeared first on CounterPunch.org.

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    Image by Ömer Yıldız.

    It would have been outlandish to suggest that a small region like Gaza, seemingly bereft of significant natural resources, political will of its own, and let alone sovereignty, would become the world’s most significant geopolitical spot on earth.

    The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza and the legendary resistance of the Palestinian people, however, have changed our calculation – or perhaps miscalculation – regarding what a besieged nation can achieve, in terms of collective resistance, in fact changing the rules of the game altogether.

    However, it is still early to fully fathom the surely significant possible outcomes of the current upheaval resulting from the Gaza war and Resistance.

    While Israel and the United States are desperate to return to the status quo model, which existed in the Middle East prior to October 7, the newly emerging Palestinian leadership is keen on introducing a new era of international relations, namely new geopolitical players, who could, in turn, rope in new allies, with their own political ambitions and economic interests.

    That said, 2023 was also rife with other major geopolitical shifts that will impact our world in the coming year; in fact, for many years to come.

    These are some of the most significant geopolitical events, with the potential of having a long-lasting impact on international relations.

    Saudi-Iran Deal 

    One, is the Saudi-Iran deal. The Riyadh-Tehran political reconciliation on April 6, took the region and the world by surprise, as the two Muslim neighbors have had major differences that resulted in a breakdown of relations seven years ago.

    The rift between two significant Middle Eastern, Muslim and oil-producing countries has impacted the geopolitical stability of the Middle East, invited greater foreign meddling and has, directly or indirectly contributed to existing conflicts.

    The identity of the mediator of the peace treaty, China, was equally significant, as this opportunity allowed, for the first time in the modern history of the region, Beijing to play the role of the peacemaker, in an area long-dominated by US-Western influence.

    The Saudi-Iran deal has proved durable, despite the ongoing conflicts and struggles that continue to define the region.

    Expansion of BRICS 

    Two, is the expansion of BRICS.

    The BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – have taken their economic alliance to new heights in 2023.

    The group has agreed, on August 24, to allow for a significant expansion to its membership, and will, as of January 1, 2024, include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

    Additionally, the BRICS New Development Bank is itself expanding, both in terms of membership and its overall financial capital.

    According to data from the UK-based research firm, Acorn Macro Consulting, BRICS members have surpassed the Group of Seven (G7) in terms of gross domestic product (GDP)  calculated on purchasing power parity (PPP).

    Why is this significant?

    The importance of BRICS has become more apparent following the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, as it allowed Russia significant margins to operate economically beyond the confines of Western-led sanctions.

    With China, too, facing a US-led trade war, BRICS has created new platforms for new major markets, concentrated mostly in the Global South.

    With the growing polarization between the West and the East, and the Global North and the Global South, it was only natural that BRICS began to take on a greater political role with a more defined political discourse. This shall become even more apparent in the coming year.

    The geopolitical importance of BRICS lies mostly in its ability to create a powerful new model for alternative economic, financial and, eventually, political platforms that will directly challenge Western hegemony around the world.

    Rise and Fall

    Three, is the rise and fall of international political actors.

    Shortly before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Germany has served as the economic engine of Europe.

    Despite the setbacks and challenges that faced various Western European economies, Europe seemed on its way to a complete recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. True, some analysts warned of over-optimism and structural fault lines, but Europe persisted in its recovery efforts.

    Then, the Ukraine war started, exposing Europe’s vulnerable economic spots – mainly its energy dependency – along with its geopolitical limitations, namely the balancing act between its political and military reliance on the US, energy reliance on Russia and economic reliance on China.

    Europe’s dream of recovery has turned into a seemingly never-ending nightmare. According to a study conducted by the Swiss National Bank and published last September, “the war in Ukraine has reduced European economic growth and ‘considerably’ pushed up inflation across the continent,” Reuters reported.

    While Europe continues to struggle with this unenviable position, other countries that have, for many years, been marginalized due to their outright political conflicts with Western countries, are finding themselves in a much stronger position.

    The changing global and military dynamics have, indeed, allowed countries like Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso and others – mostly in West Africa and its Sahel region – to confront their former colonizers, in this case France, and to redefine the concept of post-colonial sovereignty.

    Venezuela, on the other hand, which was heavily sanctioned by Washington, is finally able to sell its oil on the international market, thus pivoting away from a grinding economic crisis, unprecedented in decades. This only became possible because of the global energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine.

    All of these geopolitical shifts are likely to stay with us in 2024, leading to yet other significant changes to the world’s political map and, unfortunately, yet more conflicts, as well. Time will tell.

    The post Gaza, Saudi, Iran, Venezuela and More appeared first on CounterPunch.org.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Ramzy Baroud.

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    NIAC Statement on Kerman Terrorist Attack in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/03/niac-statement-on-kerman-terrorist-attack-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/01/03/niac-statement-on-kerman-terrorist-attack-in-iran/#respond Wed, 03 Jan 2024 16:47:05 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/niac-statement-on-kerman-terrorist-attack-in-iran

    "Generative AI has the potential to help those with fewer resources or experience quickly learn and develop new skills," he noted. "The real challenge, though, is how to center the dignity and economic security of working-class Americans during the changes to come. And unlike the Industrial Revolution, which spanned half a century at least, the AI revolution is unfolding at lightning speed."

    "Our generational task is to ensure that AI is a tool for lessening the vast disparities of wealth and opportunity that plague us, not exacerbating them."

    Khanna stressed that "today the Democratic Party is at a crossroads, as it was in the 1990s, when the dominant wing in the party argued for prioritizing private sector growth and letting the chips fall where they may," ignoring prescient criticism from former Democratic Sens. Paul Wellstone (Minn.) and Russ Feingold (Wis.), as well as Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), who then served in the House.

    After failing to heed their warnings, he argued, "the Democratic Party cannot claim to be the party of the working class if we allow AI to erode the earnings and security of the working class. The party can be forgiven once for the mistake of abetting globalization to run amok, just not twice."

    "Technologies—our technologies—are meant to complement and enhance human initiative, not subordinate or exploit it," he asserted. "We must push for workers to have a decision-making role in how and when to adopt technologies, and we must insist on workers' profiting from the implementation of these technologies. Our generational task is to ensure that AI is a tool for lessening the vast disparities of wealth and opportunity that plague us, not exacerbating them."

    Underscoring the urgency of his message, Khanna pointed out that in September, "tech's biggest names trekked to Capitol Hill for a forum on artificial intelligence" that "was reminiscent of Davos conferences in the 1990s and early 2000s," and this year alone, tens of thousands of workers at hundreds of companies could be laid off and replaced with AI.

    Already, AI is factoring into labor negotiations and legislative battles. After California legislators last year overwhelmingly approved Assembly Bill 316, which would have required a human driver on self-driving trucks weighing over 10,000 pounds that are transporting goods or passengers for at least five years, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed it.

    "Tech companies argue that replacing human drivers with AI is feasible, will reduce labor costs, and will therefore make it cheaper to transport goods and services. They lobbied heavily against the bill," explained Khanna. "I supported A.B. 316 because drivers say it's currently an unnecessary risk to have large trucks on public roads without a human on board. This is especially true if there is extreme weather, hazardous conditions, or heavy cargo on board. No one understands the safety risks at play here better than the drivers themselves, and it's both foolish and insulting to suggest they would make up such concerns to keep jobs that do not add value."

    "It's not just the AI concerns of truck drivers that are causing divides in the Democratic coalition," the congressman continued, highlighting that the monthslong strikes of unionized writers and actors in Hollywood last year ended with deals that include provisions about artificial intelligence.

    The California Democrat—who joined striking writers on the picket line—wrote that "even though writers' jobs are very different from truck drivers' jobs, labor solidarity is one of the few countervailing forces that can blunt the dehumanization of work motivated by short-term profit maximization in a world where AI is capable of suddenly disrupting both blue- and white-collar work."

    Khanna—author of the 2022 bookDignity in a Digital Age: Making Tech Work for All of Us—published the Times piece amid fears about how AI will impact everything from mass surveillance and misinformation to healthcare and war, not only in the United States but around the world.

    His Thursday column won praise from progressives across the country. Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher, head of the California Labor Federation, said that his piece is "truly a must-read for any policymaker" while Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation's editorial director and publisher, called it an "important read and issue for now and in '28."


    This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Newswire Editor.

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    Inside Iran: What Happened to Iran’s Women-led Uprising? https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/23/on-the-ground-during-irans-uprising/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/23/on-the-ground-during-irans-uprising/#respond Sat, 23 Dec 2023 17:00:30 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2c60130fdbd7aeda600f6c886f9d167f
    This content originally appeared on VICE News and was authored by VICE News.

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    Panic-stricken Israel Lobby Shifts into Overdrive https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/08/panic-stricken-israel-lobby-shifts-into-overdrive/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/08/panic-stricken-israel-lobby-shifts-into-overdrive/#respond Fri, 08 Dec 2023 22:13:58 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=146448 At Westminster the other day the UK Secretary of State for Defence (Grant Shapps) made a statement on military deployments to the Middle East which included questions and answers about the situation in Gaza. It was an opportunity for Shapps with help of pro-Zionist MPs to distort the facts to ‘justify’ Israel’s appalling crimes. The […]

    The post Panic-stricken Israel Lobby Shifts into Overdrive first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    genocide

    At Westminster the other day the UK Secretary of State for Defence (Grant Shapps) made a statement on military deployments to the Middle East which included questions and answers about the situation in Gaza. It was an opportunity for Shapps with help of pro-Zionist MPs to distort the facts to ‘justify’ Israel’s appalling crimes.

    The following exchanges are taken from Hansard which, for those who don’t know, is the official and “substantially verbatim” report of what is said in the UK Parliament.

    Martin Docherty-Hughes (West Dunbartonshire) (SNP) commented: “It is important to repeat the denunciation of the death cult known as Hamas.”

    Shapps replied: “The hon. Gentleman is right to stress the abominable, disgraceful, disgusting behaviour of Hamas.” [Shapps is Jewish]

    Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con): “Those on both Front Benches seem to agree that Hamas must not remain in control in Gaza. Is any thought being given to how, once they have been removed, they can be prevented from coming back?” [Lewis is also Jewish]

    Shapps: The easiest way to bring this to an end, as I hinted earlier, would be for Hamas, a terrorist organisation, to release the hostages that they have, to stop firing rockets into Israel in a completely indiscriminate way, which I think the whole House should condemn.”

    Sir Michael Ellis (Northampton North) (Con): “The Houthis, who are attacking British and American cargo ships, and Hamas are basically two sides of the same coin. They are Iranian-funded, Iranian-trained and, of course, Iranian-guided terrorist groups that are publicly committed to the destruction of Israel…. I particularly welcome the UK’s deployment of drones to help locate hostages, including British hostages. In the days after 7 October, the Defence Secretary said: ‘No nation should stand alone in the face of such evil.’ Will he repeat that crucial support today and in the difficult days ahead? I thank him for his support. [Ellis is Jewish and also a member of Conservative Friends of Israel].

    Shapps: My right hon. and learned Friend is absolutely right that no nation should stand alone. It is easy to forget how this all began, when the Hamas terrorist group thought it was a plan to go into Israel to butcher men, women and children, cut off heads and rape people.

    Greg Smith (Buckingham) (Con): “I applaud the decisive actions of my right hon. Friend and the Government to defend our strategic ally, Israel, against Hamas, but the grim reality on the ground right now is that Hamas continue to fire dozens of rockets at Israeli towns and cities. The Iran-backed terror group have fired more than 10,000 rockets since 7 October and show no sign of stopping their violent attacks against Israel. Will my right hon. Friend not only commit to continuing his support for Israel in defending itself against Hamas, but reassure the House that every possible step is being taken to counter Iran’s links across the region, which are causing instability?”

    Shapps: “My hon. Friend makes an excellent point that the conflict would be over immediately if hostages were released and Hamas stopped firing rockets into Israel—there would not be a cause for conflict. Indeed, that is the policy Israel followed for many years, hoping that, even though rocket attacks continued, Hamas would not take advantage of their own population by using them as human shields and building infrastructure under hospitals, schools and homes…. My hon. Friend is absolutely right to identify Iran as being behind this whole evil business.”

    Richard Foord (Tiverton and Honiton) (LD): “It was reassuring last week, in answer to my question, to hear the Minister for Armed Forces, the right hon. Member for Wells (James Heappey) telling us that UK surveillance flights would not involve the use of intelligence for target acquisition. I also welcome the Secretary of State talking today about how information that would be helpful to hostage recovery will be passed to the so-called appropriate authorities. We have now heard two questions about the International Criminal Court. Will the UK pass any evidence that it gathers of any breaches of international humanitarian law by combatants in Gaza to the ICC?“

    Shapps: “As the hon. Gentleman says, that question has been asked, and I have answered it a couple of times. The intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance – ISR – flights are to look for British hostages and indeed other hostages. That is the information that will be gathered from those flights. Of course, if we saw anything else, we would most certainly alert our partners“. [But do they include the ICC? I think not.]

    Patrick Grady (Glasgow North) (SNP): “Yesterday I asked the Under-Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, the hon. Member for Aldershot (Leo Docherty), whether the UK Government were in a position to contribute to the International Criminal Court’s call for evidence in its investigation of potential breaches of international humanitarian law. He said: ‘Not at this stage, but we will continue to take note.’ Surely, if the UK Government are actively collecting drone and surveillance images of the war zone, the answer to that question should have been yes?”

    Shapps: “I would have thought that the No. 1 concern would be to locate the British hostages, and that is where the surveillance work will focus.”

    Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North) (Ind): “The Secretary of State needs to be very clear with the House: 15,000 people have already died in Gaza, and 1,200 have died in Israel. Israel is clearly pushing the entire population southwards, if not out of the Gaza strip altogether. Is Britain involved in the military actions that Israel has taken, either physically or by providing information in support of those military activities? I think the House needs to be told. What is the long-term aim of British military involvement in Gaza?”

    Shapps: “The simple answer is no, and I hope that clears it up. I am surprised to hear the right hon. Gentleman talk just about people being killed. They were murdered. They were slaughtered. It was not just some coincidental thing. I understand and share the concerns about the requirement on Israel, on us and on everyone else to follow international humanitarian law. When Israel drops leaflets, when it drops what it calls a “knock” or a “tap” and does not bomb until afterwards, when it calls people to ask them to move, when it issues maps showing where Hamas have their tunnels and asks people to move away from them, that is a far cry from what Hamas did on 7 October, when they went after men, women and children.”

    Kim Johnson (Liverpool, Riverside) (Lab): “We have seen increased bombardment in southern Gaza after the pause. We are also seeing increased violence in the West Bank, supported by extremist settler Ministers. What talks is the Secretary of State having with Israel to stop the increase in settler violence in the West Bank?“

    Grant Shapps: “I certainly will not be pulling my punches when I speak to my Israeli counterparts. The violence in the West Bank is unacceptable and it must be controlled—stopped, in fact. None of that, in any way, shape or form, separates us from our utter condemnation of how this whole thing was started in the first place with Hamas, but the hon. Lady is right about that settler violence.”

    Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) (SNP): “Medical Aid for Palestinians has warned that Israel’s indiscriminate bombing and siege is making it impossible to sustain human life in Gaza. With 1.8 million civilians displaced and a lack of clean water and sanitation, it is just a matter of time before a cholera outbreak kills many thousands more. The Secretary of State has been unequivocal that the main purpose of surveillance is to help find hostages, which is fine, but for the fifth time of asking: if clear evidence is found of breaches of humanitarian law, will the UK Government share that evidence with the International Criminal Court?

    Shapps: “The simple answer is that we will always follow international humanitarian law and its requirements.”

    Peter Grant (Glenrothes) (SNP): “It is absolutely right that those responsible for the crimes of Hamas are held to account in international law. But why is the Secretary of State so reluctant to give a clear, simple “yes” to the question whether the Government will provide any evidence of war crimes to the International Criminal Court? Is it because he has already seen such evidence? Is it because Israel has asked him to promise not to share such evidence? What is the reason?”

    Grant Shapps: “I have already said that the United Kingdom is bound by, and would always observe, international humanitarian law.

    The message we are supposed to swallow from this pantomime is that it’s all the fault of Hamas and Iran who “started the whole thing” on 7 October, and that Israel’s massacres, brutal occupation using military force, cruel blockade and clear intention of establishing Jewish sovereignty “from the river to the sea” over the last 75 years have nothing to do with it. It is clear that the UK will do everything to avoid upsetting Israel’s evil plan and calling the regime’s war criminals to account despite our solemn obligations under international law to do so.

    And it is pointless for the likes of Shapps to keep repeating that Israel “has to follow international humanitarian law” when Israel has been in permanent breach of nearly all aspects of law for decades and treats international norms with utter contempt. Only today the regime announced approval of 1700 more ‘settlement’ homes in East Jerusalem which is Palestinian territory. And it continues to defy international law, escalating its crimes to the most abhorrent of all – genocide – because it is given cover by the US and UK. Perhaps the rest of us should properly label Israel’s genocide in Gaza as ‘US and UK-backed’. And the UK itself ignores international law if it happens to be ‘inconvenient’.

    As for the constantly repeated claim the Israel has a right to defend itself, this is blatant misinformation. Israel is an illegal military occupier and aggressor committing never-ending war crimes on someone else’s sovereign territory. Its right to self-defence is practically zero in these circumstances. UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese has stated that “Israel cannot claim self-defence against a threat that emanates from the territory it occupies – from a territory that is kept under belligerent occupation”.

    And notice how everything the Israelis dislike, and everything that thwarts their lust for domination, is now labeled “Iranian-backed” or “Hamas controlled”. Shapps is evidently well versed in the 116-page propaganda manual produced by The Israel Project (TIP) and written specially for those “on the front lines of fighting the media war for Israel”. Its purpose is to help the worldwide Zionist movement win the propaganda war by persuading international audiences to accept the Israeli narrative and agree that the regime’s crimes are necessary for Israel’s security and in line with “shared values” between Israel and the West.

    This masterwork on deception attempts to justify Israel’s slaughter, ethnic cleansing, land-grabbing, cruelty and blatant disregard for international law and United Nations resolutions, and make it all smell sweeter with a liberal squirt of persuasive language. It also incites hatred, particularly towards Hamas and Iran, and is designed to hoodwink Americans and Europeans into believing we actually share values with the racist regime, and therefore ought to support and forgive its abominable behaviour.

    Readers are instructed to “clearly differentiate between the Palestinian people and Hamas” and to drive a wedge between them. The manual features “words that work” – i.e. carefully constructed language to deflect criticism and reframe all issues and arguments in Israel’s favour. We are seeing it at work here with great success.

    MPs who are Jewish are identified as such when it seems appropriate. Those, like Sir Michael Lewis mentioned above, who are signed-up Friends of Israel should, in my opinion, declare that interest in any debate on the subject. But I must emphasise that not all Jewish MPs are tools of the apartheid regime. We remember with admiration Sir Gerald Kaufman who was arguing for economic sanctions against Israel back in 2004. And during a debate on the Gaza war of 2008/9, he told the Commons: “The present Israeli government ruthlessly and cynically exploits the continuing guilt from Gentiles over the slaughter of Jews in the Holocaust as justification for their murder of Palestinians… My grandmother was ill in bed when the Nazis came to her home town of Staszow. A German soldier shot her dead in her bed. My grandmother did not die to provide cover for Israeli soldiers murdering Palestinian grandmothers in Gaza”.

    He described Hamas as a “deeply nasty organisation” but said the UK Government’s boycott of Hamas had “dreadful consequences”, and he reminded the Commons that Israel had been created following acts of terrorism by the Irgun. He considered Iran a loathsome regime but, unlike Israel, “at least it keeps its totalitarian theocracy to within its own borders”.

    As to why there are so many Israel lackeys in Westminster Kaufman said: “It’s Jewish money, Jewish donations to the Conservative Party. There is now a big group of Conservative members of parliament who are pro-Israel…. whatever the Israeli government does.”

    Of course, it’s not just the Conservative Party. The corrupting influence of dodgy funding is also affecting Labour and the LibDems.

    Remembering the victims of genocide

    This week marks the 75th anniversary of the 1948 Genocide Convention. As explained on the United Nations website:

    Every 9 December the Office of the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide marks the adoption of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide – a crucial global commitment that was made at the founding of the United Nations, immediately preceding the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. By General Assembly Resolution A/RES/69/323 of 29 September 2015, that day also became the International Day of Commemoration and Dignity of the Victims of the Crime of Genocide and of the Prevention of this Crime.

    At its landmark 75th anniversary this year, the Genocide Convention remains highly relevant. The 1948 Genocide Convention codified for the first time the crime of genocide in international law. Its preamble recognizes that “at all periods of history genocide has inflicted great losses on humanity” and that international cooperation is required to “liberate humankind from such an odious scourge”. To date, 153 States have ratified the Convention. Achieving universal ratification of the Convention, as well as ensuring its full implementation, remain essential for effectively advancing genocide prevention. The Genocide Convention includes the obligation not only to punish the crime of genocide but, crucially, to prevent it. In the 75 years since its adoption, the Genocide Convention has played an important role in the development of international criminal law, in holding perpetrators of this crime accountable, galvanizing prevention efforts, and in giving a voice to the victims of genocide.

    How many parliamentarians in Westminster and Washington who blindly support Israel’s attempts to exterminate the Palestinians in Gaza and turn their homeland into rubble will publicly show respect for those victims of the apartheid regime’s genocide?

    The post Panic-stricken Israel Lobby Shifts into Overdrive first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Stuart Littlewood.

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    Afghan Freestyle Soccer Master Makes His Play In Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/08/afghan-freestyle-soccer-master-makes-his-play-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/08/afghan-freestyle-soccer-master-makes-his-play-in-iran/#respond Fri, 08 Dec 2023 08:50:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2dffb26e25d34479b9475781e07eb278
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Face to Face With Hezbollah https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/07/face-to-face-with-hezbollah/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/07/face-to-face-with-hezbollah/#respond Thu, 07 Dec 2023 16:34:58 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=146366 As part of a fact-finding mission to the Middle East in late 2007, one year after Hezbollah concluded a war with Israel, we spent a few days with Hezbollah. I knew that Hezbollah carried heavy baggage, could be threatening, and operated as a state within a state, but it never seemed, as bludgeoning reports insisted, […]

    The post Face to Face With Hezbollah first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    As part of a fact-finding mission to the Middle East in late 2007, one year after Hezbollah concluded a war with Israel, we spent a few days with Hezbollah. I knew that Hezbollah carried heavy baggage, could be threatening, and operated as a state within a state, but it never seemed, as bludgeoning reports insisted, an international terrorist organization. All of the few horrific actions involving Hezbollah have been tit-for-tat revenge attacks for Israeli murder of its cadres, such as the February 16, 1992, Israeli Apache AH64 helicopter missile attack on an automobile that killed Sheikh Abbas Musawi, the then secretary-general of Hezbollah, his wife, and five-year-old son.

    Face-to-face in November 2007 revealed an organized and thoughtful Hezbollah without traces of being fanatical.


    They speak English, carry I-pods, and listen to Santana and Guns and Roses. They don’t approach with anger and don’t behave overbearing. They are well-educated, mostly from Beirut’s American University, relaxed and alert to world happenings. They impress as being more secular than pious. They are spokespersons for Hezbollah – the Party of God.

    Maybe they are a selected group of well-trained talkers for foreigners; a subtle means to convince the unwary that Hezbollah’s followers are just everyday guys and gals. Maybe, but observations and events were inconsistent with the media’s drastic descriptions of the militant Lebanese Shiite movement.

    The Party of God has insufficient support for exercising political control of Lebanon and knows it doesn’t have the numbers or the strength to turn the Levant into an Islamic Republic. Hezbollah’s clerics don’t indicate they intend to force Shari’a upon their constituencies. More an amalgam of differing viewpoints – religious, social, political, and militant – Hezbollah is solidified by a common struggle for the dispossessed and a battle against corruption. Meetings with Hezbollah and Lebanese officials together with a trip to southern Lebanon, as a member of a Council for National Interest peace delegation, revealed much about the nature of the Party of God.

    The voyage started in Beirut, at a tenement building that is indistinguishable from the adjoining buildings in the Shiite district. Hezbollah followers crowd the sidewalk to greet and lead to a simple apartment on an upper floor. Sayyid Nawaf Al-Musawi, the head of Hezbollah’s International Relations, is dressed in conventional clothes.

    The only indication of religious fervor is the beads he rotates in his right hand. He sits relaxed but talks seriously and with conviction. The female translator’s minor errors and dubious translations of colloquial expressions are politely excused. The head of Hezbollah’s International Relations has a lot to say – about everything.

    Region

    In Iraq there is a severe humane problem – same as in Palestine. The West Bank is now a prison. The US gives no importance to the Iraqi people. US policy is based on Israeli safety and Middle East oil. America is creating chaos and the region is under its hegemony. The regime is increasing the problems rather than resolving them. Now they are talking about a new war in Iran. Iraq was weak, but Iran is strong and it will be a much harder war. A barrel of oil and a barrel of gunfire will create a catastrophe that is beyond comprehension. A disaster is happening and Americans are giving a story that is false. They were lying about WMDs in Iraq and now they are lying about nuclear issues in Iran. They told the people that the Iraqis would welcome them as liberators. This is an example of a delusion to the citizens of the US. American citizens deserve to know the truth. Colin Powell gave false information to the UN but he thought it was the truth. When someone tries to find the truth he is called a terrorist. America operates on misleading evidence.

    Governing Lebanon

    The one who rules must be accepted by all the others. Now the minority is ruling, but this is supported by the U.S. Why does the U.S. want this? For the benefit of the Israelis. We are a movement only against Israeli attack and Israeli occupation. We support unity. We encourage consensus. The Vatican, the Arabs want unity in Lebanon, but the American influences in Lebanon do not want this. We want a multi-ethnic nation and not as in Israel, which calls itself a Jewish country even though ¼ of its citizens are Christians and Muslims. We cannot have an election with 50% plus one because the text of the constitution is clear – there has to be a 2/3 majority. A person elected by 50% plus one is not the President and only an impostor.

    Israel

    Hezbollah will never recognize Israel. Israel (Palestine?) should be a democratic nation where all religions exist together and have equal freedom. In the 1919 Paris meeting, the Zionists presented a document which coveted South Lebanon and delineated four river basins they wanted to own.

    Sayyid Nawaf Al-Musawi ended his conversation with prophetic expressions.

    We don’t judge you on the basis of your stand on Israel. Do not judge us on that issue. There are natural ties between Shia Lebanon and Iran. They have the same source. The fifteenth century Iranian studies came from Lebanon. The geography of Lebanon enabled the Shia to stay. It is tough to conquer Southern Lebanon because of its geography.

    Leaving Beirut for the South of Lebanon is similar to leaving any metropolis – traffic jams, new expressways, and roadways that cut through residential areas. The Paris of the Middle East has lost much of its charm. It is heavy until the view of the blue-green Mediterranean waters calm the atmosphere. Banana groves, similar to those that camouflaged the Hezbollah rocket carriers during the 2006 summer war, are prominent. Also prominent are posters of Rafiq Hariri, the assassinated and previous Prime Minister. After the Sunni city of Sidon, the peaceful countryside of groves and orchards is marked with newly repaired bridges that cross ready-to-be-paved roads. The war-damaged roads lead to Tyre.

    The Shiite city has freshly sanded beaches and a picturesque seaside promenade. The posters have changed – they now feature Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s political leader, Tyre is the home of Sheik Nabil Kaook, Hezbollah commander of South Lebanon, who narrowly escaped death when Israeli warplanes bombed his home in the 2006 war.

    In his presence, women are not greeted with handshakes, but with hands respectfully placed over the heart. The women sit veiled and separate from the men. The cleric is well-groomed and well-tailored – his white turban shows his status and his brown cloak matches the brown chair on which he sits.

    Harsh and accusatory, interspersed with feelings for the dispossessed, the Hezbollah Sheik has one succinct message: “The United States took the decision to go to war and to continue the war. It treats Lebanon as just another occupation.”

    Tyre is also identified with the Al-Sadr Foundation, which manages an orphanage under the control of Rabab al-Sadr, sister of disappeared Shiite cleric Sayyid Musa al-Sadr. Shi’a clerics who have the title of Sayyid claim descent from Muhammad. Sayyid Musa al-Sadr is more famous than his designation. His life, a story of dedication, success, and an eventual mystery reveal strong links between Shiites from Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon.

    Born in Qom, Iran in 1928 to a Lebanese family of theologians, Musa al-Sadr studied theology in Najaf, Iraq. Being related to the father of Iraq’s Muqtada al-Sadr, Iraq was another home for him. In 1960 Musa al-Sadr moved to Tyre, his father’s birthplace. He soon became recognized as a strong advocate for the economically and politically disadvantaged Shi’ite population. His role in establishing schools and medical clinics throughout southern Lebanon led to the 1974 founding of the Movement of the Disinherited, whose armed wing became Amal, the other Shiite party in Lebanon.

    While successfully improving economic and social conditions for a disenfranchised Shiite population, Sayyid Musa al-Sadr made enemies of landlords, corrupt officials, political establishment, and members of the Palestinian Liberation Organization. His eventual disassociation with, what was then, a corrupt Amal, created other groups, some of whom later coalesced into Hezbollah. On February 16, 1985, an “Open Letter to the Downtrodden in Lebanon and the World,” alerted the world to Hezbollah’s formal existence. Musa al-Sadr was not present. In 1978, when attending a conference in Libya, Musa al-Sadr mysteriously vanished. No clue to his disappearance has surfaced.

    Elegant chalets grace the barren hills of southern Lebanon. Many of them are homes of expatriate Lebanese, who have always been principal contributors to Lebanon’s economy. Expatriates from Sierra Leone, the Gulf States, Dearborn, Michigan, and other U.S. cities send funds to their Lebanese relatives who purchase properties throughout Lebanon. Southern Lebanon has many retired Dearborns who have returned to their families and to a land they always cherished. But that’s not all, informed persons claim Southern Lebanon has diamond and drug smuggling that help finance Hezbollah and local communities.

    The elegant chalets emphasize the destruction of villages during the 2006 summer war. Bint Jbiel, “the daughter of the mountain,” rested in the path of the invading Israeli army. Israel’s military dropped leaflets that ordered the population to leave the village. The inhabitants obeyed the order and now the old city, not the new part, is 70% destroyed; a mound of rubble that includes the 600-year-old mosque.

    Homes along a nearby dirt road are pocked with shell and bullet holes, evidence of tanks having discharged random fire at empty houses for no apparent reason except they were close to the path of the tank. A total of eighteen Israeli tanks broke down, crashed, or were destroyed by Hezbollah ambushes during the Israeli invasion.

    From a hill close to the mined border with Israel, the deputy mayor of Marjayoun pointed to the verdant fields of Northern Israel. He claimed that in 1948 Israel seized one kilometer of Lebanese territory and that the houses in the distance are mainly empty.

    Damage-weary Lebanon is not confined to the border area. Timur Goksel, former senior advisor to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), who has been in Lebanon for twenty years, noted he had never witnessed so much wanton destruction. He said that Iran funds an Iranian Hezbollah that has no connections with Lebanese Hezbollah. Five hundred million dollars of these funds are being used to repair war-damaged southern Lebanon. In contrast, the U.S. is contributing 34 million dollars to repair a large bridge.

    Timor Goksel refutes the March 14 majority party charge that Hezbollah is obstructionist: “The Shiites (not all Hezbollah) are 30% of the country and cannot rule on their own. They want to have a role in the government and they want to be a mainstream party.” Principal leaders in the Lebanese government support Goksel’s evaluation. Former general Michel Aoun, Christian head of the Change and Reform parliamentary bloc, wants what Hezbollah wants; a new parliament where the new majority will be accepted. Aoun’s bloc has a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Hezbollah. He insisted the MOU is not an alliance but a strategy for integrating Hezbollah into a mutual defense of Lebanon. Former General and then Maronite President of Lebanon, Emil Lahoud, agreed with Hezbollah’s determination to follow constitutional law and only elect a president with a 2/3 quorum.

    The Lebanese president describes Hezbollah as “one hundred percent Lebanese. Hezbollah takes material assistance from Iran and would take it from the devil if necessary to protect their country. They are not terrorists.” Fawsi Salloukh, Lebanon’s Minister of Foreign Affairs talked from a prepared

    document that severely criticized Israel and the United States. He also wants a new election and not a litigious issue. He doesn’t believe Iran wants to dominate Hezbollah and stressed its natural for Shiites in Lebanon and Iran to establish good relations.

    Forgotten amidst the rhetoric, but mentioned by Michel Aoun and Emil Lahoud are simple facts: Hezbollah has had electoral alliances with Saad Hariri’s Future Movement, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and Noah Berri’s Amal. In 1999, Hezbollah members of Lebanon’s engineering syndicate formed a coalition with the Phalange Party, a rightist Christian group, and the National Liberal Party, both allies of Israel during the civil war.

    The Halifee restaurant in the Dahieh neighborhood is considered a popular dining place for Hezbollah followers; only two blocks from the Haret Hreil Hussineyeh mosque, whose senior cleric is Hezbollah religious leader Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah. Israeli bombers, during the July 2006 war, leveled the cleric’s home, as well as part of the surrounding area. The restaurant crowds with people enjoying the food, enjoying the elegant surroundings, enjoying the evening. There is no indication of a particular type of person; no sign of a distinctive Hezbollah character.

    La Terrase is a restaurant located on Hadi Nasrallah, a street, named after leader Hasan Nassrallah’s deceased son. Huge craters from Israeli bombing remain in the adjacent neighborhood. Enter la Terrase and first have a choice of a coffee bar. Go deeper and there is a cafeteria. Further in is a small restaurant. Climb the stairs and enter a huge restaurant surrounded by couches on which linger multitudes of young couples; drinking coffee, engaged in conversations and quiet embraces – not the ordinary media images of Hezbollah life.

    Innocent Americans were killed on September 11, 2001, by Al-Qaeda terrorists who considered the World Trade Center to be imperialist land – the center of the U.S. establishment. Innocent Lebanese were killed on July 15, 2006, one day of many bombardments that contributed to the vast destruction of the Dahieh district by Israeli military who considered Dahieh to be Hezbollah land – the center of the Hezbollah establishment.

    The U.S. and Hezbollah establishments still exist. Many innocents died in both places. The U.S. remembers the day 9/11 as a bitter memory. Lebanon had a mid-summer nightmare of smaller 9/11’s; angry memories the residents of Dahieh will forever retain. The Western world rightfully memorializes America’s tragedy but neglects Lebanon’s equal tragedies.

    It is that neglect which created Hezbollah, sustained Hezbollah, and made Hezbollah popular throughout the Arab world. Years of punishing emergencies in Lebanon — refugees from the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah’s attachment to the Syrian strife, the 4 August 2020 explosion of ammonium nitrate stored at the Port of Beirut that caused at least 218 deaths, 7,000 injuries, $15 billion in property damage, and left an estimated 300,000 people homeless, followed by economic collapse have polarized the Lebanese and may have affected contemporary Hezbollah’s operations and its acceptance by the Lebanese population.

    The post Face to Face With Hezbollah first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Turbulent Winds of the Last Peace Conference: Annapolis https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/04/turbulent-winds-of-the-last-peace-conference-annapolis/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/12/04/turbulent-winds-of-the-last-peace-conference-annapolis/#respond Mon, 04 Dec 2023 16:30:06 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=146311 For those interested, here is a previous article on a significant past event that gives a background to contemporary events. George W. Bush organized the Annapolis peace conference; predictions had it going nowhere and the last ”peace conference” went nowhere. While U.S. administrations warned Israel not to expand settlements, claimed they favored a two-state solution, […]

    The post Turbulent Winds of the Last Peace Conference: Annapolis first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    For those interested, here is a previous article on a significant past event that gives a background to contemporary events. George W. Bush organized the Annapolis peace conference; predictions had it going nowhere and the last ”peace conference” went nowhere. While U.S. administrations warned Israel not to expand settlements, claimed they favored a two-state solution, and acted as the principal mediator in the crisis, Israel continued to expand settlements, made certain the Palestinians could never have a viable state, and eschewed all mediations. The day that the Annapolis conference failed is the day the Western world failed the Palestinians and the moment that inexorably led to the present destruction of the Palestinian people.

    Discussing the 2008 Annapolis Conference, in face-to-face talks with the prime ministers, foreign ministers, and non-government officials (NGOs) of Israel, Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, revealed how far we are from achieving peace in the Middle East, and how far Annapolis is from the Earth that others walk upon. As part of a delegation of six intrepid fact finders, supported by the Council for the National Interest (CNI), a Washington-based NGO that labors intensively to determine paths towards Middle East peace, I found a hopeful wind that moved Israelis and Palestinians to portray optimism. This hopeful wind slowly reduced in force in Jordan, quickly diminished when meeting Syrian vice-presidents, and turned to an ill wind in meetings with the then Lebanese president, prime minister, and foreign minister.

    The search for Middle East peace started on a discordant note at a meeting with Gush Shalom (peace bloc) spokesperson Uri Avnery, the most notable advocate for a just peace with the Palestinians. Uri used the words “unsure” and “window dressing” to describe the conference. He didn’t sense that Hamas, with whom he has close contacts, would agree to a piece of paper and voiced the opinion that Hamas would “only make a truce and not a peace pact.”

    Kadima’s Knesset member Amira Dotan spoke of “Annapolis as a symbol,” with its “success defined as starting a process.” Deputy Speaker Dr. Ahmed Tibi said: “The U.S. should create the conditions for making it a success. Its failure will strengthen Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian/Syrian axis.” Other official sources were more open; expressing views that Israel is an army that has a state and Defense Minister Barak is the major culprit in preventing any peace initiative.

    The Ramallah landscape of enormous white brick housing developments against the brown dirt background disguises the actual despondency and poverty of the Palestinian people. Palestinian Authority (PA) officials, especially Foreign Minister Riad al-Maliki, tried to be optimistic about the Annapolis conference. Prime Minister Salam Fayed’s words were more cautious. “We want a complete agenda with final talks, but have become more motivated by fear of failure than promises of success, and are being forced into unwanted compromises just to justify a meeting.” President Abbas’ Chief of Staff Rafiq Husseini insisted that Israel must move the separation wall to the Green Line. Interior Minister Abdel Razzah al-Yahya reiterated that “there will be no two-state solution if Israel does not withdraw to the 1967 boundaries and does not give the Palestinians oxygen to breathe.”

    The lack of oxygen stifles the Palestinians, who are already torn by internecine warfare between Fatah and Hamas and by conflict with organizations in Nablus that are a combination of criminals, protesters against social and economic negligence, and militants against Israel’s occupation. The Palestinian Authority is powerless and it is not obvious how it can negotiate anything and receive approval from a majority of Palestinians, especially when they continue to experience Israel’s brutal occupation of the West Bank.

    Illegal settlements have destroyed Palestinian life in central Hebron. When the Israeli military attempted to evict the settlers, the settlers broke windows and ruined the Palestinian shops. For an incomprehensible reason, the settlers have returned to their illegal positions and Palestinian shops and houses are now empty. To enforce the settler presence, Israeli security checkpoints have been installed at all former entrances to the market.

    These settlers claim properties “taken” from Jews during riots against Hebron Jews back in 1929,” with a sign over emptied Palestinian shops, but do not display any rights of inheritance or deeds to any of the properties. Can this claim of a ‘collective right’ have a legal basis? Contrast the Hebron settlers’ illegal positions and false claims with Palestinians, who have legal deeds to properties in Israel, and are prevented from recovering their properties.

    A separation wall winds through West Bank territory and completely encircles West Bank cities, such as Qualqilya and Abu Dis. Residents are hindered from leaving these cities, going to schools, and cultivating lands. The wall has also caused accumulations of water and created puddles in Palestinian neighborhoods. The obstructive wall includes 580 fortified checkpoints, one occurring, on average, every five miles. There are also flying checkpoints, settler bypass roads, a planned super highway for Israelis only, blocked Palestinian village roads, and travel restrictions to Jerusalem. These restrictive conditions have separated Palestinian communities and families, choked the Palestinian economy, and obstructed daily exchanges between peoples. Highways slice through Palestinian lands and completely separate farm homes from agriculture. The inhumanity of all these installations and regulations is beyond belief. Chief of Staff, Rafiq Husseini, summed the PA attitude with a sigh and said, “Don’t worry, this is the land of miracles. What we need is a prayer meeting.”

    Jordan is also a land of miracles, its capital city Amman spanning hills with an advanced network of bridges, tunnels, and super highways. Traffic is horrific and only moves because there are few traffic lights in the entire city. Jordan’s increasing prosperity and touchy stability depends upon Western investment, special export privileges, and friendly relations with neighbors, especially Israel.

    Dependence upon foreign investment, coping with the 500,000 – 700,000 Iraq displaced persons, still contending with the integration of the massive Palestinian population within, and maintaining friendly relations with Israel guide Jordan’s foreign policies. Foreign Minister Abdelelah al-Khatib, similar in outlook to most Middle East leaders, considered the Israel/Palestinian conflict as the core issue to be resolved before peace and stability can arrive in the Middle East. He volunteered that Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s’ Russian immigrant hardliner, has become most influential in the “peace process.” A highly important Jordanian official was blunt. He was not positive on Annapolis, believes Israel does not want peace, does not have the political will to seek peace, and wants to shift the burden of more displaced Palestinians to Jordan. Minister of Planning Suhair al-Ali, as gracious as a woman can be, noted that deceased “King Hussein was into politics,” but the new King Abdullah “is more into development.” She had one plea: “No matter the results of Annapolis, don’t demonize Islam.”

    Damascus is a surprise. Expect a faded gray and ancient city, still struggling with the 20th century, and find a lively, advanced city with some sparkling new neighborhoods, highways that don’t interfere with the city’s appearance, and a population that is amicable and sympathetic; never a harsh look, never a bitter word, although Syria remains a totalitarian government that does not allow much free expression. To its credit, Syria has succored Palestinians forced from Israel, who have established their own neighborhoods, but still remain committed to return to their homeland. Added to its credit is the recent sacrifice in allowing an estimated 1.2 million Iraqi displaced persons (similar to Jordan, Syria refuses to call them refugees) to move among its population and secure housing, free education, and entry to the health system. Syria deserves commendation for acting as a safety valve to the calamities resulting from displaced Palestinians and Iraqis, innocent casualties from several wars.

    Not surprisingly, Syrian vice-president of Foreign Relations, Farouk Sharaa, didn’t have much expectation for the Annapolis conference, believes all Israel’s political parties fear peace, and senses that U.S. policies encouraged Israel to attack Lebanon and continue the conflict. “Israel is on a suicide path, and, if Israel is a decision-maker in the U.S. then the U.S. loses.” The vice president contradicted an accepted belief that Syria will not accept direct assistance for the Iraqi displaced persons. NGOs and the U.S. government are welcome to contribute their assistance. CNI made news by revealing to the U.S. Press a Syrian commitment to screen Iraqi displaced persons for entry into the U.S.

    The Vice president of Cultural Affairs, Najah al-Attar, exhibited welcoming smiles, and sensitivity and empathy for oppressed peoples. She spoke of “there not being peace without justice,” made references to the destruction of the Palestinians, and noted that Jews lived in peace in Syria, where they were prosperous and accepted members of the parliament. A small Jewish community survives in Northern Syria, and a Rabbi is flown in each week from Turkey to perform the rabbinical rites and assure the food is kosher.

    Not kosher was a clandestine trip to meet a “minor” Hamas official, who turned out to be Khalid Meshal, an official leader of Hamas, exiled in Damascus. The world became more aware of Meshal when Israel’s Mossad tried to assassinate him in Amman. Jordan’s King Abdullah forced Israel to immediately supply an antidote to the poison given to Meshal by threatening to publicly hang the Mossad agents who tried to kill the Hamas leader. Meshal does not fill the Western media description of a wild-eyed fanatic. On the contrary, he is a friendly, deliberate, and well-spoken person who makes sense to those who subscribe to similar positions.

    He said that Israel does not want peace and both negotiating parties aren’t strong enough to market their results to their people. Meshal doesn’t delineate Hamas’ position, but defers to a Palestinian position that accepts 1967 borders and an Arab position that has accepted the two-state solution. Since 2002, Bush has repeatedly spoken of support for a two-state solution, but where is it? The Hamas leader expects the region to be more explosive. Nevertheless, if the PA feels the Palestinian rights have been fulfilled, Hamas will welcome that. He has proposed a Hudna (truce), and if Israel responds positively, Hamas will not be an obstacle to peace. If the Right of Return is the only remaining problem, Hamas will compromise, and accept the will of the people. He claims Hamas does not encourage militancy, does not desire a theocratic state, is a national liberation movement, and will let the Palestinian people decide their own government.

    Lebanon greets the visitor with an ominous view of the famous Mdairej Bridge, the highest bridge in the Middle East, and the pride of Lebanon. The mid-section of its elegant span remains gone, destroyed by Israeli jets on the first day of the war.

    Beirut and Southern Lebanon still show scars of the war; destroyed bridges, damaged roads, and huge holes in Beirut sections. The old section of Bent Jabal (daughter of the mountain), which was invaded by Israeli troop, is completely damaged. It is now a rubble of ancient rocks.

    Lebanon was again in one of its perpetual crises; an inability to reach a parliamentary consensus and elect a new president. Although some are quick to blame Syria and Hezbollah for creating a climate of fear and for the lack of consensus, major Lebanese officials don’t agree that Hezbollah is the culprit for the impasse, just the opposite, the majority holds power by an archaic law and fears becoming a minority

    The majority is most represented by billionaire Member of Parliament (MP), Saad Hariri, son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. Saad Hariri senses a significant negative shift in Israel’s attitude towards wanting peace after Rabin’s assassination. Nevertheless, he feels Abu Mazen wants peace and Annapolis, even if delayed, must still happen. “The two sides can reach an agreement.” He is less optimistic concerning his nation: “Money and arms are pouring into the arms of the allies of Syria.” Hariri had not moved about Beirut for 2 ½ years and had received death threats. Fifty of his fellow MPs were barricaded in the Phoenician hotel, fearful of their lives. Except for Prime Minister Siniora, who accuses Syria and Hezbollah of creating this fear, of being uncooperative and wanting to keep situations unresolved so that Hezbollah can maintain its arms, the other principal government officials support Hezbollah’s position.

    Former General and MP, Michael Aoun, described the year 2000 law that gerrymandered the nation so that the March 14 Party and its allies acquired a majority of 72 parliament seats, although receiving only 1/3 of the vote. This makes the 2007 government illegitimate and favors Hezbollah’s proposition that the only fair solution to the impasse is a new election law, followed by a new election that will award seats in proportion to yhe popular vote. President Emil Lahoud claims the present parliament majority has the backing of the major Western powers and is working against the constitution. For this reason, the opposition, meaning Hezbollah, has the right to avoid reaching consensus. Foreign Minister Fawzi Sallougkh read carefully from a prepared document. He doesn’t believe Iran wants to dominate Lebanon and believes the U.S. should establish good relations with Iran.

    Lebanese leaders were particularly angered with Israel’s aggressive attitude towards the Arab world and what they perceived as U.S. support for this attitude. They are most concerned with the negotiations that will decide the fate of the Palestinian refugees, the reason being that the refugees cannot receive citizenship in Lebanon and have created social and economic havoc for decades. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was more sanguine and more universal in his characterization of what he termed to be an Arab/Israeli conflict. He considered Israel to be guilty of the situation and leading the world into a catastrophe that will affect all peoples. He allowed permission to quote him, and my notes show these remarks:

    “The Arab/Israel conflict is the maker of most problems and control of Jerusalem is a paramount issue. The conflict consumes most efforts in the region, is not restricted to the Middle East, and diverts attention from other meaningful issues in all regions. The conflict started from the Balfour Declaration, arose from the extent of injustice inflicted upon the Palestinian people, is leading to further frustration in the Arab world, and is generating extremism. The Israeli 1980 invasion created Hezbollah and a new set of problems. Now, Syria, and other parties (meaning Hezbollah), are not showing cooperation and want to keep issues unresolved. Nevertheless, President Bush has been unfair to Lebanon, Arab nations, and also to his own United States. The U.S. keeps preaching democracy but defends dictatorships.”

    Hezbollah, the Party of God, remains the contentious focus of Lebanon politics. Nevertheless, the Lebanese government has denominated Hezbollah as a resistance movement rather than a militia so that they can keep their arms, despite the truce agreement that banned militias. Hezbollah leaders are firm that they will never recognize Israel. Surprisingly, they favor a single democratic state where all peoples are equal and all religions can be practiced without interference. They claim to be politically secular and their government operations don’t contradict that thesis.

    Annapolis is 50 miles from the nation’s capital, but it is light years away from the hearts and minds of Arab peoples who want assurance of peace and stability in the Middle East. That is one observer’s conclusion from travels through the Middle East capitals.

    The post Turbulent Winds of the Last Peace Conference: Annapolis first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dan Lieberman.

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    Iranian journalist Mohammad Mir-Ghasemzadeh arrested as authorities ramp up legal pressure on media https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/30/iranian-journalist-mohammad-mir-ghasemzadeh-arrested-as-authorities-ramp-up-legal-pressure-on-media/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/30/iranian-journalist-mohammad-mir-ghasemzadeh-arrested-as-authorities-ramp-up-legal-pressure-on-media/#respond Thu, 30 Nov 2023 21:51:00 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=338653 Washington, D.C., November 30, 2023—Iranian authorities must immediately release journalist Mohammad Mir-Ghasemzadeh and cease jailing journalists for simply doing their job, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Thursday.

    On Monday, security agents with the Islamic Republic’s Intelligence Ministry arrested Mir-Ghasemzadeh, a local reporter in the northern city of Sowme’eh Sara in Gilan province, and took him to a detention center in the city of Rasht, according to news reports and a source who spoke to CPJ on the condition of anonymity citing fear of government reprisal.

    As of Thursday, authorities had not disclosed the reason behind Mir-Ghasemzadeh’s detention or any potential charges. Mir-Ghasemzadeh was recently working on a series of reports exposing the alleged financial corruption of a parliament member from Gilan province, according to that source and tweets by the New York-based Independent Center on Human Rights in Iran.

    “Iranian authorities are desperate to silence their critics and have now imprisoned local reporter Mohammad Mir-Ghasemzadeh, who was reporting on alleged official corruption,” said CPJ Middle East and North Africa Program Coordinator Sherif Mansour. “Authorities must realize that jailing journalists and critical voices won’t help them in hiding Iran’s difficult realities and release Mir-Ghasemzadeh and all jailed journalists immediately.”

    Mir-Ghasemzadeh’s health is of particular concern following reports that he was allegedly beaten in custody, according to those sources.

    In recent weeks, authorities have ramped up legal pressure on many journalists throughout the country: 

    • Authorities arrested freelance journalist Nasim Soltanbeygi on November 21 and immediately transferred her to Evin prison to serve a 3.5-year prison sentence for spreading propaganda against the system and colluding against national security. Soltanbeygi reported on the death in morality-police custody of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini.
    • On November 20, Parisa Salehi, a reporter with the financial newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad, was indicted for writing about “nationalism” on X, formerly known as Twitter, according to her social media post and the exile-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). She was temporarily released on bail.
    • Freelance reporter Saeedeh Shafiei began serving her prison sentence of three years and six months in Tehran’s Evin prison on November 19, HRANA reported.
    • Shaghayegh Moradi, a reporter with the Art and Culture magazine Bukhara, was arrested on October 30 in her home in Tehran on unspecified charges and detained in Evin prison for about a month before being released on bail on November 25, HRANA reported.

    CPJ’s email to Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment on Mir-Ghasemzadeh’s arrest did not receive any reply.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Committee to Protect Journalists.

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    Can US Threats Prevent a Wider War in the Middle East? https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/30/can-us-threats-prevent-a-wider-war-in-the-middle-east/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/30/can-us-threats-prevent-a-wider-war-in-the-middle-east/#respond Thu, 30 Nov 2023 10:13:00 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=146170 Protesters wave Palestinian, Lebanese, and Hezbollah flags and hold a picture of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah during a Palestine solidarity rally in Lebanon. (Credit: GETTY IMAGES)

    While Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has been frantically shuttling around the Middle East trying to stop the Israeli conflict in Gaza from exploding into a regional war, the United States has also sent two aircraft carrier strike groups, a Marine Expeditionary Unit and 1,200 extra troops to the Middle East as a “deterrent.” In plain language, the United States is threatening to attack any forces that come to the defense of the Palestinians from other countries in the region, reassuring Israel that it can keep killing with impunity in Gaza.

    But if Israel persists in this genocidal war, U.S. threats may be impotent to prevent others from intervening. From Lebanon to Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Iran, the possibilities of the conflict spreading are enormous. Even Algeria says it is ready to fight for a free Palestine, based on a unanimous vote in its parliament on November 1st.

    Middle Eastern governments and their people already see the United States as a party to Israel’s massacre in Gaza. So any direct U.S. military action will be seen as an escalation on the side of Israel and is more likely to provoke further escalation than to deter it.

    The United States already faces this predicament in Iraq. Despite years of Iraqi demands for the removal of U.S. forces, at least 2,500 U.S. troops remain at Al-Asad Airbase in western Anbar province, Al-Harir Airbase, north of Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, and another small base at the airport in Erbil.  There are also “several hundred” NATO troops, including Americans, advising Iraqi forces in NATO Mission Iraq (NMI), based near Baghdad.

    For many years, U.S. forces in Iraq have been mired in a low-grade war against the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) that Iraq formed to fight ISIS, mainly from Shia militias. Despite their links to Iran, the armed groups Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and other PMFs have often ignored Iranian calls to de-escalate attacks on U.S. forces. These Iraqi groups do not respect Iran Quds Force leader General Esmail Qaani as highly as they did General Soleimani, so Soleimani’s  assassination by the United States in 2020 has further reduced Iran’s ability to restrain the militias in Iraq.

    After a year-long truce between U.S. and Iraqi forces, the Israeli war on Gaza has triggered a new escalation of this conflict in both Iraq and Syria. Some militias rebranded themselves as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and began attacking U.S. bases on October 17. After 32 attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, 34 more in Syria and 3 U.S. airstrikes in Syria, U.S. forces conducted airstrikes against two Kata’ib Hezbollah bases in Iraq, one in Anbar province and one in Jurf Al-Nasr, south of Baghdad, on November 21, killing at least nine militiamen.

    The U.S. airstrikes prompted a furious response from the Iraqi government spokesman Bassam al-Awadi. “We vehemently condemn the attack on Jurf Al-Nasr, executed without the knowledge of government agencies,” al-Awadi said. “This action is a blatant violation of sovereignty and an attempt to destabilize the security situation… The recent incident represents a clear violation of the coalition’s mission to combat Daesh (ISIS) on Iraqi soil. We call on all parties to avoid unilateral actions and to respect Iraq’s sovereignty…”

    As the Iraqi government feared, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq responded to the U.S. airstrikes with two attacks on Al-Harir airbase on November 22 and several more on November 23rd. They attacked Al-Asad airbase with several drones, launched another drone attack on the U.S. base at Erbil airport, and their allies in Syria attacked two U.S. bases across the border in northeastern Syria.

    Short of a ceasefire in Gaza or a full U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Syria, there is no decisive action the U.S. can take that would put a stop to these attacks. So the level of violence in Iraq and Syria is likely to keep rising as long as the war on Gaza continues.

    Another formidable and experienced military force opposing Israel and the United States is the Houthi army in Yemen. On November 14, Abdul-Malek al-Houthi, the leader of the Houthi government in Yemen, asked neighboring countries to open a corridor through their territory for his army to go and fight Israel in Gaza.

    The Houthi Deputy Information Secretary Nasreddin Amer told Newsweek that if they had a way to enter Palestine, they would not hesitate to join the fight against Israel, ”We have fighters numbering hundreds of thousands who are brave, tough, trained and experienced in fighting,” Amer said. “They have a very strong belief, and their dream in life is to fight the Zionists and the Americans.”

    Transporting hundreds of thousands of Yemeni soldiers to fight in Gaza would be nearly impossible unless Saudi Arabia opened the way. That seems highly unlikely, but Iran or another ally could help to transport a smaller number by air or sea to join the fight.

    The Houthis have been waging an asymmetric war against Saudi-led invaders for many years, and they have developed weapons and tactics that they could bring to bear against Israel. Soon after al-Houthi’s statement, Yemeni forces in the Red Sea boarded a ship owned, via shell companies, by Israeli billionaire Abraham Ungar. The ship, which was on its way from Istanbul to India, was detained in a Yemeni port.

    The Houthis have also launched a series of drones and missiles towards Israel. While many members of Congress try to portray the Houthis as simply puppets of Iran, the Houthis are actually an independent, unpredictable force that other actors in the region cannot control.

    Even NATO ally Türkiye is finding it difficult to remain a bystander, given the widespread public support for Palestine. President Erdogan of Türkiye was among the first international leaders to speak out strongly against the Israeli war on Gaza, explicitly calling it a massacre and saying that it amounted to genocide.

    Turkish civil society groups are spearheading a campaign to send humanitarian aid to Gaza on cargo ships, braving a possible confrontation like the one that occurred in 2010 when the Israelis attacked the Freedom Flotilla, killing 10 people aboard the Mavi Marmara.

    On the Lebanese border, Israel and Hezbollah have conducted daily exchanges of fire since October 7, killing 97 combatants and 15 civilians in Lebanon and 9 soldiers and 3 civilians in Israel. Some 46,000 Lebanese civilians and 65,000 Israelis have been displaced from the border area. Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant warned on November 11, “What we’re doing in Gaza, we can also do in Beirut.”

    How will Hezbollah react if Israel resumes its brutal massacre in Gaza after the brief pause is over or if Israel expands the massacre to the West Bank, where it has already killed at least 237 more Palestinians since October 7?

    In a speech on November 3, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah held back from declaring a new war on Israel, but warned that “all options are on the table” if Israel does not end its war on Gaza.

    As Israel prepared to pause its bombing on November 23, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian held meetings in Qatar, first with Nasrallah and Lebanese officials, and then with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

    In a public statement, Amirabdollahian said, “the continuation of the ceasefire can prevent further expansion of the scope of the war. In the meeting with the leaders of the resistance, I found out that if Israel’s war crimes and genocide continue, a tougher and more complicated scenario of the resistance will be implemented.”

    Amirabdollahian already warned on October 16 that, “The leaders of the resistance will not allow the Zionist regime to do whatever it wants in Gaza and then go to other fronts of the resistance.”

    In other words, if Iran and its allies believe that Israel really intends to continue its war on Gaza until it has removed Hamas from power, and then to turn its war machine loose on Lebanon or its other neighbors, they would prefer to fight a wider war now, forcing Israel to fight the Palestinians, Hezbollah and their allies at the same time, rather than waiting for Israel to attack them one by one.

    Tragically, the White House is not listening. The next day, President Biden continued to back Israel’s vow to resume the destruction of Gaza after its “humanitarian pause,” saying that attempting to eliminate Hamas is “a legitimate objective.”

    America’s unconditional support for Israel and endless supply of weapons have succeeded only in turning Israel into an out-of-control, genocidal, destabilizing force at the heart of a fragile region already shattered and traumatized by decades of U.S. war-making. The result is a country that refuses to recognize its own borders or those of its neighbors, and rejects any and all limits on its territorial ambitions and war crimes.

    If Israel’s actions lead to a wider war, the U.S. will find itself with few allies ready to jump into the fray. Even if a regional conflict is avoided, the U.S. support for Israel has already created tremendous damage to the U.S. reputation in the region and beyond, and direct U.S. involvement in the war would leave it more isolated and impotent than its previous misadventures in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

    The United States can still avoid this fate by insisting on an immediate and permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. If Israel will not agree to that, the U.S. must back up this position with an immediate suspension of arms deliveries, military aid, Israeli access to U.S. weapons stockpiles in Israel and diplomatic support for Israel’s war on Palestine.

    The priority of U.S. officials must be to stop Israel’s massacre, avoid a regional war, and get out of the way so that other nations can help negotiate a real solution to the occupation of Palestine.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies.

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    Iran arrests 2 female environmental journalists in mass raids https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/14/iran-arrests-2-female-environmental-journalists-in-mass-raids/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/14/iran-arrests-2-female-environmental-journalists-in-mass-raids/#respond Tue, 14 Nov 2023 18:53:49 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=334976 Washington, D.C., November 14, 2023—Iranian authorities must immediately release journalists Nasim Tavafzadeh and Helaleh Nategheh and stop trying to silence journalists by jailing them, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Tuesday.

    On Saturday, intelligence agents with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arrested Tavafzadeh, editor-in-chief of the local news website Moroor.org, and Nategheh, an environmental reporter for the outlet, in the northern city of Rasht and took them to an undisclosed location, according to news reports.

    The two journalists were among about 20 people who were detained and had their electronic devices confiscated in Saturday’s mass raids in Rasht, according to multiple news reports. The majority of those arrested were women, those sources said.

    “It is vitally important for the Iranian people to access truthful reporting on government policies, like the environment,” said Sherif Mansour, CPJ’s Middle East and North Africa program coordinator. “Iranian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release the two female journalists and the many others arrested in Rasht and realize that censoring the media does nothing to address the challenges that the government is facing.”

    At the time of going to press, authorities had not disclosed the reason for detaining Tavafzadeh and Nategheh or the potential charges against the two journalists.

    Iran ranked as the world’s worst jailer of journalists when CPJ conducted its most recent census of imprisoned journalists worldwide on December 1, 2022. Iranian authorities detained at least 95 journalists in the wake of nationwide protests following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in morality, who was in police custody for allegedly violating Iran’s conservative dress law. Many have been released on bail while awaiting trial or have been issued summonses to serve multi-year sentences.

    CPJ emailed Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York requesting comment on Tavafzadeh and Nategheh’s arrests but did not receive any reply.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Committee to Protect Journalists.

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    ‘They Killed One Of Us’: How One Woman Joined Iran’s Mass Protest Movement #iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/10/they-killed-one-of-us-how-one-woman-joined-irans-mass-protest-movement-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/10/they-killed-one-of-us-how-one-woman-joined-irans-mass-protest-movement-iran/#respond Fri, 10 Nov 2023 14:02:22 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=25dbc7db4583c95231bce2e0bc5b0532
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Thousands Of Desperate Afghans Make Risky Journeys Into Iran To Find Work https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/10/thousands-of-desperate-afghans-make-risky-journeys-into-iran-to-find-work/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/10/thousands-of-desperate-afghans-make-risky-journeys-into-iran-to-find-work/#respond Fri, 10 Nov 2023 08:02:40 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=2959f974d987b06dd6f15cdf9f2e8b74
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    A Family Business Fighting to Survive in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/09/a-family-business-fighting-to-survive-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/11/09/a-family-business-fighting-to-survive-in-iran/#respond Thu, 09 Nov 2023 17:00:34 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=0c8ed759985cdaa29c3108c4ef51dd01
    This content originally appeared on VICE News and was authored by VICE News.

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    Israel’s Lies and Deception https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/31/israels-lies-and-deception/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/31/israels-lies-and-deception/#respond Tue, 31 Oct 2023 18:29:09 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=145377 We are won over by “words that work” from an Israeli training manual.

    Hasbara has become a dirty word, thanks to it’s dirt practitioners and the dirty job they are trained to do.

    It’s Hebrew for Israel’s sophisticated public relations machinery that’s set up to cynically justify the Jewish entity’s crimes and to create for Israel a “brand image” completely at odds with the ugly truth.

    Fiction and distortion are among hasbara’s standard propaganda tools used for spinning fairy tales and propagating disinformation. And it is very effective, up to a point. The reason why it will ultimately fail is that it has very poor material to work with. You cannot behave like psychopaths and disguise it forever. You cannot trample other peoples’ rights and freedoms, and destroy their property, and expect to be loved. You cannot keep your jackboot on your neighbour’s neck for 75 years and expect to call yourself civilised and in tune with Western values. You cannot steal his lands, water and livelihood at gunpoint and claim the moral high ground.

    And you certainly cannot create a wholesome brand image from bullshit.

    I wrote this 10 years ago, and nothing has changed, only got worse.

    Israel’s book of lies

    The great mystery is why Western politicians and media outlets, after 75 years of Israel’s existence, are still so ignorant about what’s been happening and the countless crimes committed in pursuit of Zionist ambitions.

    Israel’s propagandists have a training manual that teaches the art of hasbara – the sugarcoating techniques and downright lying to persuade the gullible to swallow their poison.

    Notice how everything Israelis dislike, and everything that thwarts their lust for domination, is now labelled “Iranian-backed” or “Hamas controlled”. They’d have us all believe we are in mortal danger from Iran and must huddle together in a collective act of aggression orchestrated by Tel Aviv, Washington and London.

    The 116-page instruction manual, called the 2009 Global Language Dictionary, was produced by The Israel Project (TIP), which says it is “devoted to educating the press and the public about Israel while promoting security, freedom and peace”. It was written specially for those “on the front lines of fighting the media war for Israel”.

    TIP provides journalists, leaders and opinion-formers with “accurate information about Israel”. Its purpose is to help the worldwide Zionist movement win the propaganda war by persuading international audiences to accept the Israeli narrative and agree that the regime’s crimes are necessary for Israel’s security and in line with “shared values” between Israel and the West. And because God gave them the keys to the Holy Land, their abominable behaviour is deserving of our support.

    I suspect Messrs Rishi Sunak, James Cleverly, Keir Starmer and the rest of Israel’s stooges in Westminster carry this training manual in their pocket, which accounts for the claptrap they constantly spout and their inexplicable infatuation with the rogue state.

    The manual teaches the propaganda tricks that Israel’s scribblers and drivelers use to try to justify the slaughter, the ethnic cleansing, the land-grabbing, the cruelty and its contempt for international law and UN resolutions, and make it all smell sweet.

    They tell us, for example, how many rockets are fired from Gaza into Israel but never how many bombs, rockets and shells (including the illegal and prohibited kind) Israel’s US-taxpayer-funded F-16s, tanks, armed drones and navy gunboats pour into the densely-packed humanity that is Gaza.

    And they are careful not to mention, for example, that Ben Gurion airport, which serves Tel Aviv, was formerly Lydda airport. Lydda was a major Arab town and communications hub during the British Mandate and designated Palestinian in the 1947 UN Partition Plan. In July 1948 Israeli terrorists seized the town, shot it up and drove out the population. Donald Neff reported how the Israelis massacred 426 men, women and children. Some 176 were slaughtered in the town’s main mosque.

    Out of a population of 19,000, only 1,052 were allowed to stay. Others who survived the killing spree were forced to walk into exile in the scalding July heat, leaving a trail of bodies – men, women and children – along the way. Israel has no right to Lydda at all – they stole it in a terror raid, just like Najd/Sderot and hundreds of other Palestinian cities, towns and villages.

    “Captain of Spin” returns

    I’m horrified to see Mark Regev making a comeback to our screens and being interviewed by British media. Regev (real name Freiberg) is an ace propagandist, master of disinformation, whitewasher extraordinaire and personal adviser and spokesman for the apartheid regime’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.

    While he was ambassador to the UK one of his senior political officers, Shai Masot, plotted with stooges among British MPs and other maggots in the political woodwork to “take down” senior government figures, including Sir Alan Duncan at the Foreign Office. Masot’s hostile scheming was captured and revealed by an Al Jazeera undercover investigation and not, regrettably, by Britain’s own security services and press. “The UK has a strong relationship with Israel and we consider the matter closed,” said the British government afterwards.

    It should have resulted in Regev being kicked out, but he wasn’t.

    Regev is quoted several times in the Global Language Dictionary in its attempts to justify Israel’s slaughter, ethnic cleansing, land-grabbing, cruelty and blatant disregard for international law and United Nations resolutions, and to make it all smell sweeter with a liberal squirt of persuasive language. It also incites hatred, particularly towards Hamas and Iran, and is designed to hoodwink all us simple-minded Americans and Europeans into believing we actually share values with the racist regime, and therefore ought to support and forgive its abominable behaviour.

    Readers are instructed to “clearly differentiate between the Palestinian people and Hamas” and to drive a wedge between them. The manual features “Words that work” – that is to say, carefully constructed language to deflect criticism and reframe all issues and arguments in Israel’s favour. A statement at the very beginning sets the tone: “Remember, it’s not what you say that counts. It’s what people hear.”

    Here’s an example:

    Israel made painful sacrifices and took a risk to give peace a chance. They voluntarily removed over 9,000 settlers from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, abandoning homes, schools, businesses and places of worship in the hopes of renewing the peace process.

    Despite making an overture for peace by withdrawing from Gaza, Israel continues to face terrorist attacks, including rocket attacks and drive-by shootings of innocent Israelis. Israel knows that for a lasting peace, they must be free from terrorism and live with defensible borders.

    Actually, Israel made no sacrifices at all – Gaza wasn’t theirs to keep and staying was unsustainable. Although they removed their settlers and troops, they continued to occupy Gaza’s airspace and coastal waters and control all entrances and exits, thus keeping the population bottled up and provoking acts of resistance that give Israel a bogus excuse to turn Gaza into a prison.

    International law regards Israel as still the occupier.

    The manual also serves as a communications primer for the army of cyber-scribblers that Israel’s Ministry of Dirty Tricks recruited to spread Zionism’s poison across the internet. It uses some of Regev’s words to provide disinformation essential to the hasbara programme. We’re told, for example, that the most effective way to build support for Israel is to talk about “working toward a lasting peace” that “respects the rights of everyone in the region”.

    Here are a few more:

    We welcome and we support international efforts to help the Palestinians. So, once again, the Palestinian people are not our enemy. On the contrary, we want peace with the Palestinians.

    We’re interested in a historical reconciliation. Enough violence. Enough war. And we support international efforts to help the Palestinians both on the humanitarian level and to build a more successful democratic society. That’s in everyone’s interest.

    The central lie, of course, is that Israel wants peace. It doesn’t. It never has. Peace simply does not suit Israel’s purpose, which is endless expansion and control. That is why Israel has never declared its borders, maintains its brutal military occupation and continues its programme of illegal squats, or so-called “settlements”, deep inside Palestinian territory, intending to create sufficient “facts on the ground” to ensure permanent occupation and annexation.

    Q: Why did Israel use disproportionate force in Gaza?

    A: The devastation in Gaza is heartbreaking. So much suffering that was so unnecessary. And none of it had to happen.

    Israel left Gaza – uprooting 9,000 Israeli families, and turned it over, peacefully, to the Palestinians. They had every opportunity to succeed: support from the international community, financial aid from across the globe, and the aspirations of the people.

    Israel gave up Gaza with every hope that this was the first step towards peace with the Palestinians, and all they got was rockets in return. Not dozens. Not hundreds. Thousands of rockets. Not monthly. Not weekly. Literally daily. Even since the fighting in Gaza stopped, more than 160 rockets been fired from Gaza towards Israel since Israel stopped fighting.

    What would you have done – or wanted your government to do – if you and your family were under rocket attack every day? When will the terrorists in Gaza stop shooting rockets at Israeli civilians?

    You and I wouldn’t have been so stupid as to live on land we’d stolen from the Palestinians at gunpoint.

    It was the former UN secretary-general, Kofi Anan, that put four benchmarks on the table. And he said, speaking for the international community that

    If Hamas reforms itself…

    If Hamas recognises my country’s right to live in freedom…

    If Hamas renounces terrorism against innocent civilians…

    If Hamas supports international agreements that are being signed and agreed to concerning the peace process… then the door is open. But unfortunately – tragically – Hamas has failed to meet even one of those four benchmarks. And that’s why today Hamas is isolated internationally. Even the United Nations refuses to speak to Hamas.

    Which of those benchmarks has Israel met, Mr Regev?

    Iran must be demonised too, so Regev’s twisted wisdom is used again:

    Israel is very concerned about the Iranian nuclear programme. And for good reason.

    Iran’s president openly talks about wiping Israel off the map. We see them racing ahead on nuclear enrichment so they can have enough fissile material to build a bomb. We see them working on their ballistic missiles…. The Iranian nuclear programme is a threat, not just to my country, but to the entire region. And it’s incumbent upon us all to do what needs to be done to keep from proliferating.

    But how safe is the region under the threat of Israel’s nukes? Why is Israel the only state in the region not to have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty? Are we all supposed to believe that Israel’s 200 (or is it 400?) nuclear warheads pose no threat? And why hasn’t Israel signed the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, and why has it has signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, similarly the Chemical Weapons Convention?

    As for “wiping Israel off the map”, accurate translations of that remark by former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are: “This regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time” (The Guardian), or “This regime that is occupying Qods [Jerusalem] must be eliminated from the pages of history” (Middle East Media Research Institute). Ahmadinejad was actually repeating a statement once made by Ayatollah Khomeini.

    And one more:

    When asked a direct question, you don’t have to answer it directly. You are in control of what you say and how you say it. Remember, your goal in doing interviews is not only to answer questions—it is to bring persuadable members of the audience to Israel’s side in the conflict. Start by acknowledging their question and agreeing that both sides – Israelis and Palestinians – deserve a better future. Remind your audience that Israel wants peace. Then focus on shared values. Once you have done this you will have built enough support for you to say what Israel really wants: for the Palestinians to end the violence and the culture of hate so that fences and checkpoints are no longer needed and both sides can live in peace. And for Iran for Iran-backed terrorists in Gaza to stop shooting rockets into Israel so that both sides can have a better future.

    A simple rule of thumb is that once you get to the point of repeating the same message over and over again so many times that you think you might get sick – that is just about the time the public will wake up and say “Hey—this person just might be saying something interesting to me!

    Why is all this elaborate lying and misquoting necessary? It’s the good old Mossad motto “By deception we shall do war”, ingrained in the Israeli mindset.

    And I’m even more horrified to have just seen Trevor Phillips giving Tzipi Livni a platform. This vile woman, Israel’s former foreign minister, was largely responsible for the terror that brought death and destruction to Gaza’s civilians during the blitzkrieg known as Operation Cast Lead. Showing no remorse, and with the blood of 1,400 dead Gazans (including 320 children and 109 women) on her hands and thousands more horribly maimed, Livni’s office issued a statement saying she was proud of it. Speaking later at a conference at Tel Aviv’s Institute for Security Studies, she said: “I would today take the same decisions.”


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Stuart Littlewood.

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    Hamas uses N Korea, Iran arms in its Israel assault, military says https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/hamas-iran-nkorea-10262023222323.html https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/hamas-iran-nkorea-10262023222323.html#respond Fri, 27 Oct 2023 02:27:20 +0000 https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/hamas-iran-nkorea-10262023222323.html Hamas has used weapons sourced from North Korea and Iran to target Israel, the Israeli military said, supporting Radio Free Asia’s earlier report on the alleged arms connection between the North and Hamas.

    Hamas used Iranian-made mortar rounds and North Korean rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) in its attack against Israel on Oct. 7, the Israeli military stated during an official media tour Thursday, as reported by AFP.

    “I think about five to 10 percent of the weapons here [were] made in Iran,” an Israeli military official, who asked for the condition of anonymity, was cited as saying. “And 10% [are] North Korean. The rest of it was made inside the Gaza Strip.”

    “I think the most surprising thing was the amount of weapons that they brought inside Israel,” the official added. 

    Earlier this month, RFA reported on the potential use of North Korean weapons by Hamas militants. RFA’s thorough analysis was based on a video that displayed a man holding what seemed to be North Korean-made rocket launchers.

    Following the report, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the findings, with its intelligence indicating a military connection between North Korea and Hamas. 

    The latest confirmation from Israel followed as Pyongyang has been issuing statements, blaming the United States in the Middle East conflict. The conflict was a “tragedy created entirely by the United States,” North Korea’s official Korea Central News Agency said on Monday, claiming that Washington “has turned a blind eye to Israel, its illegal occupation of Palestinian territories, continuous armed assaults, civilian casualties, and the expansion of Jewish settlements.” 

    The move is widely seen as the North’s attempt to bolster its anti-American coalition, which could potentially strengthen its leverage against the U.S. and its allies. Over the past few weeks, North Korea’s foreign policy has shown signs of a larger strategy at play. From supporting Hamas to bolstering ties with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, Pyongyang appears keen on crafting a united front against Washington.

    The strategy appears to bear results by aligning those opposed to U.S. policy. Last week, a portrait of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was displayed at an anti-U.S. protest in the West Bank, underscoring the deep sentiments of the Palestinian people against the U.S.

    The Oct. 7 attack, in which North Korean and Iranian weapons are used, killed over 1,400 individuals in Israel, primarily civilians, according to an official figure. In response, Israel has launched airstrikes that have led to approximately 7,000 deaths from the Palestine side, with the majority also being civilians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

    Casualties are anticipated to increase on both sides as Israel’s military announced on Thursday that it had conducted a ground operation in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces reported that its tanks and infantry units “struck numerous terrorist cells, infrastructure and anti-tank missile launch posts” before withdrawing to Israeli territory.

    Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.


    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA.

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    The Hamas Resistance to Israel and Iran’s Involvement https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/18/the-hamas-resistance-to-israel-and-irans-involvement/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/18/the-hamas-resistance-to-israel-and-irans-involvement/#respond Wed, 18 Oct 2023 08:51:38 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=144951 I was “interviewed” by an Iranian journalist online (15 October) about the Hamas-Israel conflict and Iran’s involvement. My answers are below.

    1. During the war between Hamas and Israel, some sources in America and their affiliated media reported that Iranian money was blocked in Qatar again, which was later denied. Do you think there was a message hidden in this news?

    I have written about this accusation in the United States. For your readers, I want to lay out the reasoning behind the accusations in the United States. The reasons for these accusations are complex, and they have more to do with partisan politics in the United States than about Iran.

    First, the accusations of the tie between the Iranian settlement and the  Hamas attack was launched exclusively by Republicans, and it was a ploy to try and blame President Biden for the Hamas attack. There were many misstatements made, but “truth” is irrelevant when it comes to partisan politics. The main goal is to “score” points rhetorically.

    The most ignorant comments claim that Iran received the money and immediately used the funds to support the Hamas attack. This is of course a total lie, but for people who are ill-disposed toward Iran and toward President Biden, this was an easy lie to sell, and looking at the commentary from right-wing media and comments on new stories shows that many people heard this and immediately believed it.

    A slightly more sophisticated version of this same lie is that Iran received the funds, and couldn’t use them to support Hamas because they were earmarked for humanitarian purposes, but because they received the funds, they were able to “offset” other government funds which were sent to support Hamas.

    When the Biden administration decisively pointed out that first, the funds did belong to Iran, and that none of them had been disbursed from Qatar, a third version of this story started circulating, and that is that Iran anticipated  these funds after the settlement, and so disbursed other existing funds to support Hamas.

    Of course all of these were complete lies. Hamas had planned this attack for months. The Iranian settlement took place long after the planning and preparation for the Hamas attack was underway. Iran could not have anticipated that the $6 billion of its own money would  be released as a condition of the prisoner exchange, because negotiations were not finalized before the planning for the Hamas attack. So these accusations are false and illogical.

    However, that still did not stop Republicans from continuing the narrative that President Biden was “soft on Iran” and that concessions made to Iran “somehow” led to the Hamas attack, and so ultimately President Biden was responsible.  The Republican narrative that the attack was engineered, directed and supported by Iran continues and now has been cemented in the Republican political narrative, and the Biden administration has been unable to counteract it.

    Another narrative that has emerged claims that Iran will instigate Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon, thus proving that Iran was behind the Hamas attack. This is illogical, of course, but the demonization of Iran has become such a complete fixture in American politics, this kind of narrative has been extremely easy to promulgate.

    So, in response to these falsehoods, the Biden administration froze the Iranian assets in Qatar. It was a violation of the agreement between Iran and the United States. But it was necessary to try and stop the Republican lies. It highlighted the fact that the funds were never disbursed, and that Iran could not now anticipate receiving them.

    And the other move by the Biden administration to counter this rhetoric was to engage in a full-throated, loud and very public support for Israel. Sending Secretary of State Blinken to Israel for a highly emotional presentation citing his own Jewish roots, and President Biden making many public statements in support of Israel blunted some of the Republican criticism. I am not suggesting that these sentiments were insincere, but they were a very deliberate, highly public and emotional display of support for Israel. And it appears to have worked.

    1. How likely is it that America will use these funds as leverage against Iran in the future? If so, what will be the harm to America?

    No one should expect these funds to be released very soon. There is a possibility that they could be quietly released after the 2024 elections when President Biden’s fate concerning his presidency is settled. If Trump were to win re-election in 2024 the funds would never be released while Trump was in office. One again, I emphasize that this is not about Iran. This is about electoral politics in the United States, where sadly,, any politician who does anything to support or provide any benefit to Iran will be attacked.

    1. What is the impact of this war on the future of Iran’s nuclear negotiations?

    The Israeli-Hamas conflict will result in a halt to any progress in the Iranian nuclear negotiations until after the 2024 presidential elections. Senator Lindsay Graham (Republican from South Carolina) said today that Iran was totally to blame for the Hamas attack. Other Republicans have said the same. Some have called for bombing of Iran’s oil facilities to destroy Iran’s economic base. Sadly, anything the United States would now do that would result in any improvement in Iran’s economic condition is on hold for now. It is too politically dangerous for the Biden administration to do this. At best the talks will “tread water” until after January 2025 when the new presidential administration is in office.

    Let me also point out that if Hezbollah attacks Israel from the North, any talks between Iran and the United States over the nuclear negotiations will be immediately abandoned.

    1. What effects will this war have on the future of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations?

    One of the narratives that is being widely spread in the United States by Republicans is that: Iran engineered the Hamas attack on Israel in order to prevent the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran has recently improved relations with Saudi Arabia. So the question of whether Iran sees establishment of Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations as a danger, or something to be prevented is a very potent issue that Iran will have to deal with diplomatically. If American conservative politicians have their way (including Trump), the Saudi Arabia-Israel accords will go forward, not only because that is seen as positive for Israeli security, but also because it will “deal a blow” to Iran–a double benefit for these politicians. But the Iranian government should take this accusation of Iranian support for the attack as a way to prevent this new alliance very seriously, because it is a major narrative in the United States.

    1. What is the effect of the war between Hamas and Israel on the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel?

    See my answer above. This has emerged in some political circles as the root cause for the Hamas attack, and the supposed motivation for Iranian support of the Hamas attack–to prevent this normalization of Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations. It is assumed that Iran wants to prevent this, and it is also assumed that Hamas sees this as a blow to their cause.

    Because this has been put forward so strongly as a motivation for the attack, every effort will now be made on the part of the United States to see that the normalization takes place.

    Ass a final observation, however, many supporters of the Palestinians point out that normalization of Israel’s relations with Arab states will have no effect on the Palestinian cause, because in fact, Arab States have not been supporting Palestinians at all historically. There are individuals and groups within Arab states that have supported the Palestinian cause, but the Arab states themselves have never been supportive. This underscores Iran’s support for Palestinians–and the fact that Iran, as a non-Arab state has been the chief reliable support for the Palestinian cause.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by William O. Beeman.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/18/the-hamas-resistance-to-israel-and-irans-involvement/feed/ 0 435118
    The Geopolitics of Al-Aqsa Flood https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/16/the-geopolitics-of-al-aqsa-flood/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/16/the-geopolitics-of-al-aqsa-flood/#respond Mon, 16 Oct 2023 11:55:20 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=144883 Photo Credit: The Cradle

    Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was meticulously planned. The launch date was conditioned by two triggering factors.

    First was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flaunting his ‘New Middle East’ map at the UN General Assembly in September, in which he completely erased Palestine and made a mockery of every single UN resolution on the subject.

    Second are the serial provocations at the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, including the straw that broke the camel’s back: two days before Al-Aqsa Flood, on 5 October, at least 800 Israeli settlers launched an assault around the mosque, beating pilgrims, destroying Palestinian shops, all under the observation of Israeli security forces.

    Everyone with a functioning brain knows Al-Aqsa is a definitive red line, not just for Palestinians, but for the entire Arab and Muslim worlds.

    It gets worse. The Israelis have now invoked the rhetoric of a “Pearl Harbor.” This is as threatening as it gets. The original Pearl Harbor was the American excuse to enter a world war and nuke Japan, and this “Pearl Harbor” may be Tel Aviv’s justification to launch a Gaza genocide.

    Sections of the west applauding the upcoming ethnic cleansing – including Zionists posing as “analysts” saying out loud that the “population transfers” that began in 1948 “must be completed” – believe that with massive weaponry and massive media coverage, they can turn things around in short shrift, annihilate the Palestinian resistance, and leave Hamas allies like Hezbollah and Iran weakened.

    Their Ukraine Project has sputtered, leaving not just egg on powerful faces, but entire European economies in ruin. Yet as one door closes, another one opens: Jump from ally Ukraine to ally Israel, and hone your sights on adversary Iran instead of adversary Russia.

    There are other good reasons to go all guns blazing. A peaceful West Asia means Syria reconstruction – in which China is now officially involved; active redevelopment for Iraq and Lebanon; Iran and Saudi Arabia as part of BRICS 11; the Russia-China strategic partnership fully respected and interacting with all regional players, including key US allies in the Persian Gulf.

    Incompetence. Willful strategy. Or both.

    That brings us to the cost of launching this new “war on terror.” The propaganda is in full swing. For Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Hamas is ISIS. For Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, Hamas is Russia. Over one October weekend, the war in Ukraine was completely forgotten by western mainstream media. Brandenburg Gate, the Eiffel tower, the Brazilian Senate are all Israeli now.

    Egyptian intel claims it warned Tel Aviv about an imminent attack from Hamas. The Israelis chose to ignore it, as they did the Hamas training drills they observed in the weeks prior, smug in their superior knowledge that Palestinians would never have the audacity to launch a liberation operation.

    Whatever happens next, Al-Aqsa Flood has already, irretrievably, shattered the hefty pop mythology around the invincibility of Tsahal, Mossad, Shin Bet, Merkava tank, Iron Dome, and the Israel Defense Forces.

    Even as it ditched electronic communications, Hamas profited from the glaring collapse of Israel’s multi-billion-dollar electronic systems monitoring the most surveilled border on the planet.

    Cheap Palestinian drones hit multiple sensor towers, facilitated the advance of a paragliding infantry, and cleared the way for T-shirted, AK-47-wielding assault teams to inflict breaks in the wall and cross a border that even stray cats dared not.

    Israel, inevitably, turned to battering the Gaza Strip, an encircled cage of 365 square kilometers packed with 2.3 million people. The indiscriminate bombing of refugee camps, schools, civilian apartment blocks, mosques, and slums has begun. Palestinians have no navy, no air force, no artillery units, no armored fighting vehicles, and no professional army. They have little to no high-tech surveillance access, while Israel can call up NATO data if they want it.

    Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proclaimed “a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly.”

    The Israelis can merrily engage in collective punishment because, with three guaranteed UNSC vetoes in their back pocket, they know they can get away with it.

    It doesn’t matter that Haaretz, Israel’s most respected newspaper, straight out concedes that “actually the Israeli government is solely responsible for what happened (Al-Aqsa Flood) for denying the rights of Palestinians.”

    The Israelis are nothing if not consistent. Back in 2007, then-Israeli Defense Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin said, “Israel would be happy if Hamas took over Gaza because IDF could then deal with Gaza as a hostile state.”

    Ukraine funnels weapons to Palestinians

    Only one year ago, the sweaty sweatshirt comedian in Kiev was talking about turning Ukraine into a “big Israel,” and was duly applauded by a bunch of Atlantic Council bots.

    Well, it turned out quite differently. As an old-school Deep State source just informed me:

    “Ukraine-earmarked weapons are ending up in the hands of the Palestinians. The question is which country is paying for it. Iran just made a deal with the US for six billion dollars and it is unlikely Iran would jeopardize that. I have a source who gave me the name of the country but I cannot reveal it. The fact is that Ukrainian weapons are going to the Gaza Strip and they are being paid for but not by Iran.”

    After its stunning raid last weekend, a savvy Hamas has already secured more negotiating leverage than Palestinians have wielded in decades. Significantly, while peace talks are supported by China, Russia, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – Tel Aviv refuses. Netanyahu is obsessed with razing Gaza to the ground, but if that happens, a wider regional war is nearly inevitable.

    Lebanon’s Hezbollah – a staunch Resistance Axis ally of the Palestinian resistance – would rather not be dragged into a war that can be devastating on its side of the border, but that could change if Israel perpetrates a de facto Gaza genocide.

    Hezbollah holds at least 100,000 ballistic missiles and rockets, from Katyusha (range: 40 km) to Fajr-5 (75 km), Khaibar-1 (100 km), Zelzal 2 (210 km), Fateh-110 (300 km), and Scud B-C (500 km). Tel Aviv knows what that means, and shudders at the frequent warnings by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that its next war with Israel will be conducted inside that country.

    Which brings us to Iran.

    Geopolitical plausible deniability

    The key immediate consequence of Al-Aqsa Flood is that the Washington neocon wet dream of “normalization” between Israel and the Arab world will simply vanish if this turns into a Long War.

    Large swathes of the Arab world in fact are already normalizing their ties with Tehran – and not only inside the newly expanded BRICS 11.

    In the drive towards a multipolar world, represented by BRICS 11, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among other groundbreaking Eurasian and Global South institutions, there’s simply no place for an ethnocentric Apartheid state fond of collective punishment.

    Just this year, Israel found itself disinvited from the African Union summit. An Israeli delegation showed up anyway, and was unceremoniously ejected from the big hall, a visual that went viral. At the UN plenary sessions last month, a lone Israeli diplomat sought to disrupt Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s speech. No western ally stood by his side, and he too, was ejected from the premises.

    As Chinese President Xi Jinping diplomatically put it in December 2022, Beijing “firmly supports the establishment of an independent state of Palestine that enjoys full sovereignty based on 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital. China supports Palestine in becoming a full member of the United Nations.”

    Tehran’s strategy is way more ambitious – offering strategic advice to West Asian resistance movements from the Levant to the Persian Gulf: Hezbollah, Ansarallah, Hashd al-Shaabi, Kataib Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and countless others. It’s as if they are all part of a new Grand Chessboard de facto supervised by Grandmaster Iran.

    The pieces in the chessboard were carefully positioned by none other than the late Quds Force Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qassem Soleimani, a once-in-a-lifetime military genius. He was instrumental in creating the foundations for the cumulative successes of Iranian allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, as well as creating the conditions for a complex operation such as Al-Aqsa Flood.

    Elsewhere in the region, the Atlanticist drive of opening strategic corridors across the Five Seas – the Caspian, the Black Sea, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean – is floundering badly.

    Russia and Iran are already smashing US designs in the Caspian – via the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) – and the Black Sea, which is on the way to becoming a Russian lake. Tehran is paying very close attention to Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine, even as it refines its own strategy on how to debilitate the Hegemon without direct involvement: call it geopolitical plausible deniability.

    Bye bye EU-Israel-Saudi-India corridor

    The Russia-China-Iran alliance has been demonized as the new “axis of evil” by western neocons. That infantile rage betrays cosmic impotence. These are Real Sovereigns that can’t be messed with, and if they are, the price to pay is unthinkable.

    A key example: if Iran under attack by a US-Israeli axis decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy crisis would skyrocket, and the collapse of the western economy under the weight of quadrillions of derivatives would be inevitable.

    What this means, in the immediate future, is that he American Dream of interfering across the Five Seas does not even qualify as a mirage. Al-Aqsa Flood has also just buried the recently-announced and much-ballyhooed EU-Israel-Saudi Arabia-India transportation corridor.

    China is keenly aware of all this incandescence taking place only a week before its 3rd Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. At stake are the BRI connectivity corridors that matter – across the Heartland, across Russia, plus the Maritime Silk Road and the Arctic Silk Road.

    Then there’s the INSTC linking Russia, Iran and India – and by ancillary extension, the Gulf monarchies.

    The geopolitical repercussions of Al-Aqsa Flood will speed up Russia, China and Iran’s interconnected geoeconomic and logistical connections, bypassing the Hegemon and its Empire of Bases. Increased trade and non-stop cargo movement are all about (good) business. On equal terms, with mutual respect – not exactly the War Party’s scenario for a destabilized West Asia.

    Oh, the things that a slow-moving paragliding infantry overflying a wall can accelerate.

  • First published at The Cradle.

  • This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Pepe Escobar.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/16/the-geopolitics-of-al-aqsa-flood/feed/ 0 434639
    The Geopolitics of Al-Aqsa Flood https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/16/the-geopolitics-of-al-aqsa-flood/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/16/the-geopolitics-of-al-aqsa-flood/#respond Mon, 16 Oct 2023 11:55:20 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=144883 Photo Credit: The Cradle

    Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was meticulously planned. The launch date was conditioned by two triggering factors.

    First was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flaunting his ‘New Middle East’ map at the UN General Assembly in September, in which he completely erased Palestine and made a mockery of every single UN resolution on the subject.

    Second are the serial provocations at the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, including the straw that broke the camel’s back: two days before Al-Aqsa Flood, on 5 October, at least 800 Israeli settlers launched an assault around the mosque, beating pilgrims, destroying Palestinian shops, all under the observation of Israeli security forces.

    Everyone with a functioning brain knows Al-Aqsa is a definitive red line, not just for Palestinians, but for the entire Arab and Muslim worlds.

    It gets worse. The Israelis have now invoked the rhetoric of a “Pearl Harbor.” This is as threatening as it gets. The original Pearl Harbor was the American excuse to enter a world war and nuke Japan, and this “Pearl Harbor” may be Tel Aviv’s justification to launch a Gaza genocide.

    Sections of the west applauding the upcoming ethnic cleansing – including Zionists posing as “analysts” saying out loud that the “population transfers” that began in 1948 “must be completed” – believe that with massive weaponry and massive media coverage, they can turn things around in short shrift, annihilate the Palestinian resistance, and leave Hamas allies like Hezbollah and Iran weakened.

    Their Ukraine Project has sputtered, leaving not just egg on powerful faces, but entire European economies in ruin. Yet as one door closes, another one opens: Jump from ally Ukraine to ally Israel, and hone your sights on adversary Iran instead of adversary Russia.

    There are other good reasons to go all guns blazing. A peaceful West Asia means Syria reconstruction – in which China is now officially involved; active redevelopment for Iraq and Lebanon; Iran and Saudi Arabia as part of BRICS 11; the Russia-China strategic partnership fully respected and interacting with all regional players, including key US allies in the Persian Gulf.

    Incompetence. Willful strategy. Or both.

    That brings us to the cost of launching this new “war on terror.” The propaganda is in full swing. For Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Hamas is ISIS. For Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, Hamas is Russia. Over one October weekend, the war in Ukraine was completely forgotten by western mainstream media. Brandenburg Gate, the Eiffel tower, the Brazilian Senate are all Israeli now.

    Egyptian intel claims it warned Tel Aviv about an imminent attack from Hamas. The Israelis chose to ignore it, as they did the Hamas training drills they observed in the weeks prior, smug in their superior knowledge that Palestinians would never have the audacity to launch a liberation operation.

    Whatever happens next, Al-Aqsa Flood has already, irretrievably, shattered the hefty pop mythology around the invincibility of Tsahal, Mossad, Shin Bet, Merkava tank, Iron Dome, and the Israel Defense Forces.

    Even as it ditched electronic communications, Hamas profited from the glaring collapse of Israel’s multi-billion-dollar electronic systems monitoring the most surveilled border on the planet.

    Cheap Palestinian drones hit multiple sensor towers, facilitated the advance of a paragliding infantry, and cleared the way for T-shirted, AK-47-wielding assault teams to inflict breaks in the wall and cross a border that even stray cats dared not.

    Israel, inevitably, turned to battering the Gaza Strip, an encircled cage of 365 square kilometers packed with 2.3 million people. The indiscriminate bombing of refugee camps, schools, civilian apartment blocks, mosques, and slums has begun. Palestinians have no navy, no air force, no artillery units, no armored fighting vehicles, and no professional army. They have little to no high-tech surveillance access, while Israel can call up NATO data if they want it.

    Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proclaimed “a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly.”

    The Israelis can merrily engage in collective punishment because, with three guaranteed UNSC vetoes in their back pocket, they know they can get away with it.

    It doesn’t matter that Haaretz, Israel’s most respected newspaper, straight out concedes that “actually the Israeli government is solely responsible for what happened (Al-Aqsa Flood) for denying the rights of Palestinians.”

    The Israelis are nothing if not consistent. Back in 2007, then-Israeli Defense Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin said, “Israel would be happy if Hamas took over Gaza because IDF could then deal with Gaza as a hostile state.”

    Ukraine funnels weapons to Palestinians

    Only one year ago, the sweaty sweatshirt comedian in Kiev was talking about turning Ukraine into a “big Israel,” and was duly applauded by a bunch of Atlantic Council bots.

    Well, it turned out quite differently. As an old-school Deep State source just informed me:

    “Ukraine-earmarked weapons are ending up in the hands of the Palestinians. The question is which country is paying for it. Iran just made a deal with the US for six billion dollars and it is unlikely Iran would jeopardize that. I have a source who gave me the name of the country but I cannot reveal it. The fact is that Ukrainian weapons are going to the Gaza Strip and they are being paid for but not by Iran.”

    After its stunning raid last weekend, a savvy Hamas has already secured more negotiating leverage than Palestinians have wielded in decades. Significantly, while peace talks are supported by China, Russia, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – Tel Aviv refuses. Netanyahu is obsessed with razing Gaza to the ground, but if that happens, a wider regional war is nearly inevitable.

    Lebanon’s Hezbollah – a staunch Resistance Axis ally of the Palestinian resistance – would rather not be dragged into a war that can be devastating on its side of the border, but that could change if Israel perpetrates a de facto Gaza genocide.

    Hezbollah holds at least 100,000 ballistic missiles and rockets, from Katyusha (range: 40 km) to Fajr-5 (75 km), Khaibar-1 (100 km), Zelzal 2 (210 km), Fateh-110 (300 km), and Scud B-C (500 km). Tel Aviv knows what that means, and shudders at the frequent warnings by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that its next war with Israel will be conducted inside that country.

    Which brings us to Iran.

    Geopolitical plausible deniability

    The key immediate consequence of Al-Aqsa Flood is that the Washington neocon wet dream of “normalization” between Israel and the Arab world will simply vanish if this turns into a Long War.

    Large swathes of the Arab world in fact are already normalizing their ties with Tehran – and not only inside the newly expanded BRICS 11.

    In the drive towards a multipolar world, represented by BRICS 11, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among other groundbreaking Eurasian and Global South institutions, there’s simply no place for an ethnocentric Apartheid state fond of collective punishment.

    Just this year, Israel found itself disinvited from the African Union summit. An Israeli delegation showed up anyway, and was unceremoniously ejected from the big hall, a visual that went viral. At the UN plenary sessions last month, a lone Israeli diplomat sought to disrupt Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s speech. No western ally stood by his side, and he too, was ejected from the premises.

    As Chinese President Xi Jinping diplomatically put it in December 2022, Beijing “firmly supports the establishment of an independent state of Palestine that enjoys full sovereignty based on 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital. China supports Palestine in becoming a full member of the United Nations.”

    Tehran’s strategy is way more ambitious – offering strategic advice to West Asian resistance movements from the Levant to the Persian Gulf: Hezbollah, Ansarallah, Hashd al-Shaabi, Kataib Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and countless others. It’s as if they are all part of a new Grand Chessboard de facto supervised by Grandmaster Iran.

    The pieces in the chessboard were carefully positioned by none other than the late Quds Force Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qassem Soleimani, a once-in-a-lifetime military genius. He was instrumental in creating the foundations for the cumulative successes of Iranian allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, as well as creating the conditions for a complex operation such as Al-Aqsa Flood.

    Elsewhere in the region, the Atlanticist drive of opening strategic corridors across the Five Seas – the Caspian, the Black Sea, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean – is floundering badly.

    Russia and Iran are already smashing US designs in the Caspian – via the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) – and the Black Sea, which is on the way to becoming a Russian lake. Tehran is paying very close attention to Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine, even as it refines its own strategy on how to debilitate the Hegemon without direct involvement: call it geopolitical plausible deniability.

    Bye bye EU-Israel-Saudi-India corridor

    The Russia-China-Iran alliance has been demonized as the new “axis of evil” by western neocons. That infantile rage betrays cosmic impotence. These are Real Sovereigns that can’t be messed with, and if they are, the price to pay is unthinkable.

    A key example: if Iran under attack by a US-Israeli axis decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy crisis would skyrocket, and the collapse of the western economy under the weight of quadrillions of derivatives would be inevitable.

    What this means, in the immediate future, is that he American Dream of interfering across the Five Seas does not even qualify as a mirage. Al-Aqsa Flood has also just buried the recently-announced and much-ballyhooed EU-Israel-Saudi Arabia-India transportation corridor.

    China is keenly aware of all this incandescence taking place only a week before its 3rd Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. At stake are the BRI connectivity corridors that matter – across the Heartland, across Russia, plus the Maritime Silk Road and the Arctic Silk Road.

    Then there’s the INSTC linking Russia, Iran and India – and by ancillary extension, the Gulf monarchies.

    The geopolitical repercussions of Al-Aqsa Flood will speed up Russia, China and Iran’s interconnected geoeconomic and logistical connections, bypassing the Hegemon and its Empire of Bases. Increased trade and non-stop cargo movement are all about (good) business. On equal terms, with mutual respect – not exactly the War Party’s scenario for a destabilized West Asia.

    Oh, the things that a slow-moving paragliding infantry overflying a wall can accelerate.

  • First published at The Cradle.

  • This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Pepe Escobar.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/16/the-geopolitics-of-al-aqsa-flood/feed/ 0 434640
    Washington Hawk’s Call to Bomb Iran Cites Disastrous 9/11 Playbook https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/13/washington-hawks-call-to-bomb-iran-cites-disastrous-9-11-playbook/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/13/washington-hawks-call-to-bomb-iran-cites-disastrous-9-11-playbook/#respond Fri, 13 Oct 2023 18:37:32 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=447647

    Earlier this week, Mark Wallace, the head of the influential Washington, D.C., think tank United Against Nuclear Iran, called for a “military response” against Iran for Hamas’s attack on Israel.

    Appearing on the London-based satellite network Iran International, Wallace explained, “In the wake of 9/11, we said that we would find every Al Qaeda terrorist wherever they were, hunt them down, and kill them or bring them to justice, and that we would bring a response to their state sponsors, at that point the Taliban in Afghanistan. Right now, that is Iran.”

    Wallace loosely quoted Secretary of State Antony Blinken as saying, “There is no doubt that Iran is the primary funder and supporter and patron of Hamas.” 

    Therefore, Wallace continued, “Whether or not Iran pressed the button to go into Israel is irrelevant. It all lies at the hands of Iran. So the debate of whether Iran was involved in the specific planning of individualized events is irrelevant.”

    Wallace wrapped up by saying, “Let me send a message to the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] viewers in Iran that might be watching this: I look forward to seeing you hanged from the end of one of your own ropes.”

    "Right now, the only appropriate response to Iranians is a military response. Let me send a message to the IRGC viewers in Iran that might be watching this: I look forward to seeing you hanged from the end of one of your own ropes," @UANI CEO @mark_d_wallace told @IranIntl. pic.twitter.com/oZxVvL7j0i

    — Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) October 10, 2023

    Wallace’s remarks are significant for several reasons, including United Against Nuclear Iran’s place in the D.C. firmament and the context of the past 22 years since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

    UANI was founded in 2008 by the late Richard Holbrooke and Dennis Ross. Holbrooke was a top Democratic diplomat who held various posts, including U.S. ambassador to the U.N. and special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ross played a prominent role in Bill Clinton’s policy toward Israel and Palestine and later was a special adviser to Hillary Clinton during her tenure as secretary of state. UANI’s current chair is Joe Lieberman, the former senator from Connecticut.

    The name “United Against Nuclear Iran” is something of a misnomer. Similar think tanks focused on Iraq in the late 1990s and early 2000s, using the issue of Iraq’s purported weapons of mass destruction as a rationale for their actual goal: the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s government. The Project for the New American Century was particularly influential in lobbying for the invasion of Iraq. The same dynamic applies to UANI, which uses Iran’s potential nuclear weapons program as a vehicle to damage Iran’s current government and potentially overthrow it.

    One of UANI’s main funders is Thomas Kaplan, a billionaire investor in precious metals. UANI often functions as a sort of research arm for the Office of Foreign Assets Control, which enforces U.S. sanctions on Iran (and other countries sanctioned by the U.S.). In 2020, UANI led a push to stop pharmaceutical companies from doing business with Iran at the height of the Covid-19 outbreak.

    Then there’s the peculiarity of Wallace’s analogy, given the relevant history. The U.S. did invade Afghanistan and dislodge the Taliban, and then occupied Afghanistan for 20 years. But this was not a notable success, given that the Taliban, in 2021, defeated the Afghan military set up by the U.S. and its allies, forcing a humiliating evacuation by the U.S.

    Is this what Wallace is advocating — an invasion of Iran costing trillions of dollars and ending with exactly the same people in power? (Wallace did not respond to a request for comment.) Or does he simply want us to bomb Iran? UANI has released a statement calling “on our government in Washington, together with Israel, and our allies around the world to launch strikes against military and intelligence targets in Iran, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sites, and missile and drone bases, where Iran’s proxy and partner network is trained.”

    But what will this accomplish, exactly? The UANI statement says the world has failed to “deter Iran.” But after 9/11, the bombing of Afghanistan, without an invasion, was seen as weak-willed appeasement, insufficient to deter the Taliban.

    Also, does Wallace believe the U.S. should attack other countries that support Hamas, such as Qatar and Turkey? In fairness, Wallace has called for the U.S. to demand that Qatar, where Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh sometimes lives, hand over Haniyeh or experience “U.S. military action on its territory to bring him to justice.”

    Finally, is this now a rule that applies to everyone? For instance, if another country considers the actions of Israel to constitute terrorism, can they attack the U.S., which is Israel’s “primary funder and supporter and patron”?

    Meanwhile, others in the U.S. political system are also anxious to attack Iran. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina recent stated that “for every Israeli or American hostage executed by Iran, we should take down an Iranian oil refinery. … How much more death and destruction do we have to take from the Iranian regime? I am confident that this was planned and funded by the Iranians.” 

    The only way you're going to keep this war from escalating is to hold Hamas and Iran accountable.

    It is now time to take the war to the Ayatollah’s back yard. pic.twitter.com/zlyT59OUJ2

    — Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) October 10, 2023

    Wonderfully enough, Iran has its own list of organizations it’s designated as terrorists, and UANI is on it.

    The channel on which Wallace appeared, Iran International, appears to be funded by Saudis. In 2018, Iran International hosted a spokesperson for a separatist group within Iran, who praised a terrorist attack in the Iranian city of Ahvaz. Twenty-four people, including children, were killed. The spokesperson added, “I insist that armed resistance is part of our resistance.”

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    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Jon Schwarz.

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    Alleged Iran Role in Israel Attack Echoes Bogus Iraq WMD Claims https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/12/alleged-iran-role-in-israel-attack-echoes-bogus-iraq-wmd-claims/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/12/alleged-iran-role-in-israel-attack-echoes-bogus-iraq-wmd-claims/#respond Thu, 12 Oct 2023 23:24:29 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=447489

    One word was conspicuously absent from President Joe Biden’s speech on Tuesday about Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel: Iran.

    On Sunday, an explosive Wall Street Journal article accused Iran of having helped Hamas plot the deadliest attack on Israel in 50 years, a claim that seemed engineered to draw the U.S. into war with Iran. But the Biden administration and the Israel Defense Forces, as well as current and former U.S. national security officials interviewed by The Intercept, say there’s no evidence of direct Iranian involvement.

    “We have no evidence or proof” of Iranian direction, Maj. Nir Dinar, IDF spokesperson, told Politico on Monday — an assertion echoed by Biden’s national adviser, Jake Sullivan, on Tuesday. Though the Biden administration can be said to have a political stake in avoiding conflict with Iran ahead of an election year, two senior Pentagon officials also told The Intercept that efforts to determine Iranian direction are intensive and ongoing but that no proof has emerged.

    “I don’t understand why the Wall Street Journal’s nondescript ‘Hamas and Hezbollah’ sources are more trustworthy than the U.S. government’s sources, who receive extraordinary scrutiny,” J.D. Maddox, a former CIA branch chief, told The Intercept.

    The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the Hamas attack surprised Iranian leadership — a claim echoed later that day in a report by the Wall Street Journal, contradicting its own previous reporting.

    Monitoring leadership for communications evincing foreknowledge after a major attack is a common practice for intelligence services. Such communications are valuable indicators of whether parties knew of an operation beforehand.

    Despite the growing evidence to the contrary, Iran hawks like John Bolton have seized on the narrative that Iran directed Hamas’s attack, advancing theclaim in a CNN interview on Thursday.

    “Bolton has no access to intelligence besides the newspaper,” former Obama administration National Security Council spokesperson Tommy Vietor fumed on X. “Zero lessons learned from the Iraq war propaganda disaster.”

    Several other former national security officials also drew parallels between claims of Iranian direction of Hamas’s attack and the Iraq weapons of mass destruction fiasco.

    “Same suspects, different war,” retired Col. Larry Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Colin Powell, told The Intercept. “I can’t imagine Iran would jeopardize the talks with the U.S. Perhaps interpose no objections and continue arms supplies, but no promotion of the attack.”

    Iran is a longtime sponsor of Hamas, and there’s no question that the country provides critical logistical support to the militant group. But whether they directed the attack is another matter.

    “My sense is that nuance on this issue is critical,” Marc Polymeropoulos, a former senior CIA officer who worked in the region, said on X. “The difference between ‘directing’ the attack and giving the actual green light (as stated here) vs ‘coordinating’ may be [the] difference between war with Iran or not.”

    It’s possible that evidence of Iranian sponsorship exists and simply hasn’t emerged yet, but that reasoning echoes the Iraq WMD imbroglio. “If the Israeli government had any evidence at all of direct Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack, it is very likely that Israel would let the world know about that,” Paul Pillar, a former chief analyst at the CIA’s counterterrorism center, told The Intercept.

    According to Pillar, Hamas had plenty of incentive to conduct the operation on its own, including acquiring hostages as bargaining chips to free Palestinian prisoners and also to torpedo the Saudi–Israel normalization deal being pursued by the Biden administration.

    “Even extensive relations involving material support do not imply any operational direction or instigation,” Pillar said. “A similar situation is Iran’s relationship with the Houthis in Yemen, who have benefitted from Iranian material support but seized the Yemeni capital of Sana against the advice of Iran.”

    Iran has issued fiery statements celebrating the attack, feeding into the theory that they directed it. But experts say it’s more complicated.

    “Iran’s praise for Hamas’s attack sounds a lot like Saudi’s praise for the attack,” Maddox, the former CIA branch chief, said. “Israel is surrounded by detractors. It would be wise to withhold judgment until there’s clear evidence of direct support.”

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    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Ken Klippenstein.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/12/alleged-iran-role-in-israel-attack-echoes-bogus-iraq-wmd-claims/feed/ 0 433908
    A Message to Donald Rumsfeld’s Ghost About My Known Knowns https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/10/a-message-to-donald-rumsfelds-ghost-about-my-known-knowns/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/10/a-message-to-donald-rumsfelds-ghost-about-my-known-knowns/#respond Tue, 10 Oct 2023 00:45:07 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=144729

    On February 12, 2002 at a Pentagon news conference, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was asked by Jim Miklaszewski, the NBC Pentagon correspondent, if he had any evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and was supplying them to terrorists.  Rumsfeld delivered a famous non-answer answer and said:

    Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

    When he was pressed by Jamie McIntyre, CNN’s Pentagon correspondent, to answer the question about evidence, he continued to talk gobbledygook, saying, “I could have said that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, or vice versa.”

    He never said he had evidence, because he didn’t.

    Rumsfeld, who enjoyed his verbal games, was the quintessential bullshitter and liar for the warfare state.  This encounter took place when Rumsfeld and his coconspirators were promoting lie after lie about the attacks of September 11, 2001 and conflating false stories about an alliance between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden in order to build a case to wage another war against Iraq, in order to supplement the one in Afghanistan and the war on “terror” that they launched post September 11 and the subsequently linked anthrax attacks.

    A year later on February 5, 2003, U. S. Secretary of State Colin Powell went before the U. N. Security Council and in a command performance assured the world that the U.S. had solid evidence that Iraq had “weapons of mass destruction,” repeating that phrase seventeen times as he held up a stage prop vial of anthrax to make his point.  He said, “My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources — solid sources. These are not assertions. What we’re giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence.”  He was lying, but to this very day his defenders falsely claim he was the victim of an “intelligence failure,” a typical deceitful excuse along with “it was a mistake.”  Of course, Iraq did not have “weapons of mass destruction” and the savage war waged on Iraq was not a mistake.

    Scott Ritter, the former Marine U.N. weapons inspector,  made it very clear back then that there was no evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, but his expertise was dismissed, just as his current analysis of the war in Ukraine is.  See his recent tweet about Senator Diane Feinstein in this regard:

    Thirteen months after Rumsfeld’s exchange in the news conference, the United States invaded Iraq on March 19, 2003, knowing it had no justification.  It was a war of aggression.  Millions died as a result.  And none of the killers have been prosecuted for their massive war crimes.  The war was not launched on mistaken evidence; it was premeditated and based on lies easy to see.  Very, very easy to see.

    On January 28, 2003, eleven days before Powell performance, I, an independent writer, wrote a newspaper Op Ed, “The War Hoax,” saying:

    The Bush administration has a problem: How to start a war without having a justifiable reason for one.  No doubt they are working hard to solve this urgent problem.  If they can’t find a justification, they may have to create one.  Or perhaps they will find what they have already created. . . . Yet once again, the American people are being played for fools, by the government and the media.  The open secret, the insider’s fact, is that the United States plans to attack Iraq in the near future.  The administration knows this, the media knows it, but the Bush scenario, written many months ago, is to act as if it weren’t so, to act as if a peaceful solution were being seriously considered. . . . Don’t buy it.

    Only one very small regional Massachusetts newspaper, the North Adams Transcript, was willing to publish the piece.

    I mention this because I think it has been very obvious for a very long time that the evidence for United States’ crimes of all sorts has been available to anyone who wished to face the truth.  It does not take great expertise, just an eye for the obvious and the willingness to do a little homework.  Despite this, I have noticed that journalists and writers on the left have continued to admit that they were beguiled by people such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joseph Biden, con men all.  I do not mean writers for the mainstream press, but those considered oppositional.  Many have, for reasons only they can answer, put hope in these obvious charlatans, and some prominent ones have refused to analyze such matters as the JFK assassination, September 11th, or Covid-19, to name a few issues.  Was it because they considered these politicians and matters known unknowns, even when the writing was on the wall?

    Those on the right have rolled with Reagan, the Bushes, and Trump in a similar manner, albeit for different reasons.  It causes me to shake my head in amazement.  When will people learn?  How long does it take to realize that all these people are part of a vast criminal enterprise that has been continuously waging wars and lying while raking in vast spoils for the military-industrial complex.  There is one party in the U.S. – the War Party.

    If you have lived long enough, as have I, you reach a point when you have, through study and the accumulation of evidence, arrived at a long list of known knowns.  So with a backhand slap to Donald Rumsfeld, that long serving servant of the U.S. war machine, I will list a very partial number of my known knowns in chronological order.  Each could be greatly expanded. There is an abundance of easily available evidence for all of them – nothing secret – but one needs to have the will for truth and do one’s homework.  All of these known knowns are the result of U.S. deep state conspiracies and lies, aided and abetted by the lies of mass corporate media.

    My Known Knowns:

    • The U.S. national security state led by the CIA assassinated President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. This is The foundational event for everything that has followed.  It set the tone and sent the message that deep state forces will do anything to wage their wars at home and abroad.  They killed JFK because he was ending the war against Vietnam, the Cold War, and the nuclear arms race.
    • Those same forces assassinated Malcolm X fourteen months later on February 21, 1965 because he too had become a champion of peace, human rights, and racial justice with his budding alliance with Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. Such an alliance of these two black leaders posed too great a threat to the racist warfare state.  This conspiracy was carried out by the Nation of Islam, the New York Police Department, and U.S. intelligence agencies.
    • The Indonesian government’s slaughter of more than one million mainly poor rice farmers in 1965-6 was the result of a scheme planned by ex-CIA Director Allen Dulles, whom JFK had fired. It was connected to Dulles’s role in the assassination of JFK, the CIA-engineered coup against Indonesian President Sukarno, his replacement by the dictator Suharto, and his mass slaughter ten years later, starting in December 1975.  The American-installed Indonesian dictator Suharto, after meeting with Henry Kissinger and President Ford and receiving their approval, would slaughter hundreds of thousands East-Timorese with American-supplied weapons in a repeat of the slaughter of more than a million Indonesians in 1965.
    • In June of 1967, Israel, a purported ally of the U.S., attacked and destroyed the Egyptian and Syrian armies, claiming falsely that Egypt was about to attack Israel. This was a lie that was later admitted by former Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in a speech he gave in 1982 in Washington, D.C.  Israel annexed the West Bank and Gaza and still occupies the Golan Heights as well.  In June 1967, Israel also attacked and tried to sink the U.S. intelligence gathering ship the U.S. Liberty, killing 34 U.S. sailors and wounding 170 others.  Washington covered up these intentional murders to protect Israel.
    • On April 4, 1968, these same intelligence forces led by the FBI, assassinated Martin Luther King, Jr. in Memphis, Tennessee. He was not shot by James Earl Ray, the officially alleged assassin, but by a hit man who was part of another intricate government conspiracy.  King was killed because of his work for racial and human rights and justice, his opposition to the Vietnam War, and his push for economic justice with the Poor People’s Campaign.
    • Two months later, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, on his way to the presidency, was also assassinated by deep state intelligence forces in another vastly intricate conspiracy. He was not killed by Sirhan Sirhan, who was a hypnotized patsy standing in front of RFK. He was assassinated by a CIA hit man who was standing behind him and shot him from close range.  RFK, also, was assassinated because he was intent on ending the war against Vietnam, bringing racial and economic justice to the country, and pursuing the assassins of his brother John.
    • The escalation of the war against Vietnam by Pres. Lyndon Johnson was based on the Tonkin Gulf lies. Its savage waging by Richard Nixon for eight years was based on endless lies.  These men were war criminals of the highest order.  Nixon’s 1968 election was facilitated by the “October Surprise” when South Vietnam withdrew from peace negotiations to end the war.  This was secretly arranged by Nixon and his intermediaries.
    • The well-known Watergate scandal story, as told by Woodward and Bernstein of The Washington Post, that led to Richard Nixon’s resignation in August 1974, is an entertaining fiction concealing intelligence operations.
    • Another October Surprise was arranged for the 1980 presidential election. It was linked to the subsequent Iran-Contra scandal during the Reagan administration, led by future CIA Director under Reagan, William Casey, and former CIA Director and Vice-President under Reagan, George H. W. Bush.  As in 1968, a secret deal was made to secure the Republican’s election by making a deal with Iran to withhold releasing the American hostages they held until after the election.  They were released minutes after Reagan was sworn in on January 20, 1981.  American presidential elections have been fraught with scandals, as in 2000 when George W. Bush and team stole the election from Democrat Al Gore, and Russia-gate was conjured up by the Democrats in 2016 to try to prevent Trump’s election.
    • The Reagan administration, together with the CIA, armed the so-called “Contras” to wage war against the Sandinista government of Nicaragua that had overthrown the vicious U.S. supported dictator Anastasio Somoza. The Contras were Somoza supporters and part of a long line of terrorists that the U.S. had used throughout Latin America where they supported dictators and death squads to squelch democratic movements. Such state terrorism was of a piece with the September 11, 1973 U.S. engineered coup against the democratic government of President Salvatore Allende in Chile and his replacement with the dictator Augusto Pinochet.
    • The Persian Gulf War waged by George H.W. Bush in 1991 – the first made for TV war – was based on lie upon lie promoted by the administration and their public relations firm. It was a war of aggression celebrated by CNN and other media as a joyous July 4th fireworks display.
    • Then the neoliberal phony William Clinton spent eight years bombing Iraq, dismantling the social safety net, deregulating the banks, attacking and dismantling Yugoslavia, savagely bombing Serbia, etc. In a span of four months in 1999 he bombed four countries: Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq, and Yugoslavia.  He maintained the U.S. sanctions placed on Iraq following the Gulf War that resulted in the death of 500,00 Iraqi children.  When his Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was asked by Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes if the price was worth it, Albright said, “We think the price is worth it.”
    • The attacks of September 11, 2001, referred to as 9/11 in an act of linguistic mind control in order to create an ongoing sense of national emergency, and the anthrax attacks that followed, were a joint inside operation – a false flag – carried out by elements within the U.S. deep state.  Together with the CIA assassination of JFK, these acts of state terrorism mark a second fundamental turning point in efforts to extinguish any sense of democratic control in the United States.  Thus The Patriot Act, government spying, censorship, and ongoing attacks on individual rights.
    • The George W. Bush-led U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. and its “war on terror” were efforts to terrorize and control the Middle East, Southwest Asia, as well as the people of the U.S. The aforementioned Mr. Rumsfeld, along with his partner in crime Dick Cheney, carried out Bush’s known known war crimes justified by the crimes of Sept 11 as they simultaneously created a vast Homeland Security spying network while eliminating Americans basic freedoms.
    • Barack Obama was one of the most effective imperialist presidents in U.S. history. Although this is factually true, he was able to provide a smiling veneer to his work at institutionalizing the permanent warfare state.  When first entering office, he finished George W. Bush’s unfinished task of bailing out the finance capitalist class of Wall St.  Having hoodwinked liberals of his bona fides, he then spent eight years presiding over extrajudicial murders, drone attacks, the destruction of Libya, a coup in Ukraine bringing neo-Nazis to power, etc.  In 2016 alone he bombed seven countries Pakistan, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, and Iraq.  He expanded U.S. military bases throughout the world and sent special forces throughout Africa and Latin America.  He supported the new Cold War with sanctions on Russia.  He was a fitting successor to Bush junior.
    • Donald Trump, a New York City reality TV star and real estate tycoon, the surprise winner of the 2016 U.S. presidential election despite the Democratic Party’s false Russia-gate propaganda, attacked Syria from sea and air in the first two years of his presidency, claiming falsely that these strikes were for Syria’s use of chemical weapons at Douma and for producing chemical weapons. In doing so, he warned Russia not to be associated with Syrian President Assad, a “mass murderer of men, women, and children.”  He did not criticize Israel that to the present day continues to bomb Syria, but he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. He ordered the assassination by drone of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani near Baghdad International Airport while on a visit to meet with Iraq’s prime minister.  As an insider contrary to all portrayals, he presided over Operation Warp Speed Covid vaccination development and deployment, which was a military-pharmaceutical-CIA program, whose key player was Robert Kadlec (former colleague of Donal Rumsfeld with deep ties to spy agencies), Trump’s Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Preparedness and Response and an ally of Dr. Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates.  On December 8, 2020 Trump joyously declared: “Before Operation Warp Speed, the typical time-frame for development and approval [for vaccines], as you know, could be infinity. And we were very, very happy that we were able to get things done at a level that nobody has ever seen before. The gold standard vaccine has been done in less than nine months.”  And he announced they he will quickly distribute such a “verifiably safe and effective vaccine” as soon as the FDA approved it because “We are the most exceptional nation in the history of the world. Today, we’re on the verge of another American medical miracle.”  The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was approves three days later. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine received FDA emergency use authorization a week later.
    • This Covid-19 medical miracle was a con-job from the start. The official Covid operation launched in March 11, 2020 with worldwide lockdowns that destroyed economies while enriching the super-rich and devastating regular people, was a propaganda achievement carried out by intelligence and military apparatuses in conjunction with Big Pharma, the WHO, the World Economic Forum, etc. and promulgated by a vast around-the-clock corporate media disinformation campaign.  It was the third fundamental turning point – following the JFK assassination and the attacks of September 11, 2001 and anthrax – in destabilizing the economic, social and political life of all nations while undermining their sovereignty.  It was based on false science in the interests of further establishing a biosecurity state.  The intelligence agency planners who had conducted many germ war game simulations leading up to Covid -19 referred to a future arising out of such “attacks,” as the “New Normal.”  A close study of these  precedents, game-planning, and players makes this evident.  The aim was to militarize medicine and produce a centralized authoritarian state.  Its use of the PCR “test” to detect the virus was a lie from the start.  The Nobel Award winning scientist who developed the test, Kary Mullis, made it clear that “the PCR is a process. It does not tell you that you are sick.”  It is a process “to make a whole lot of something out of nothing,” but it can not detect a specific virus.  That it was used to detect all these Covid “cases” is all one needs to know about the fraud.
    • Joseph Biden, who was Obama’s point man for Ukraine while vice-president and the U.S. engineered the 2014 coup d’état in Ukraine, came into office intent on promoting the New Cold War with Russia and refused all Russian efforts to peacefully settle the Ukrainian crisis. He pushed NATO to further provoke Russia by moving farther to the east, surrounding Russia’s borders.  He supported the neo-Nazi Ukrainian elements and its government’s continuous attacks on the Russian speaking Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.  In doing so, he clearly provoked Russian into sending troops into Ukraine on 24 February 2022.  He has fueled this war relentlessly and has pushed the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation.  He supported the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq.  He currently presides over an aggressive provocation of China.  And like his predecessor Trump, he promotes the Covid disinformation campaign and the use of “vaccines,” urging people to get their jabs.
    • Throughout all these decades and the matters touched upon here – some of my known knowns – there is another dominant theme that recurs again and again.  It is the support for Israel and its evil apartheid regime’s repeated slaughters and persecution of the Palestinian people after having dispossessed them of their ancestral land. This has been a constant fact throughout all U.S. administrations since the JFK assassination and Israel’s subsequent acquisition of nuclear weapons that Kennedy opposed.  It is been aided and abetted by the rise of the neocon elements within the U.S. government and the 1997 formation of The Project for the New American Century, founded by William Kristol and Donald Kagan, whose signees included Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, et al., and their claim for the need “for a new Pearl Harbor.”  Many of these people, who held dual U.S. and Israeli citizenship, became members of the Bush administration.  Once the attacks of September 11th occurred and a summer of moviegoers watching the new film Pearl Harbor had passed, George W. Bush and the corporate media immediately and repeatedly proclaimed the attacks a new Pearl Harbor.  Once again, the Palestinian’s and Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel that is widely and falsely reported as unprovoked, as is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has been referred to as “a Pearl Harbor Moment.”  By today, Monday 9 Oct. 2023, President Biden has already given full U.S. support to Israel as it savagely attacks Gaza and has said that additional assistance for the Israeli Defense Forces is now on its way to Israel with more to follow over the coming days. Rather than acting as an instrument for peace, the U.S. government continues its  support for Israel’s crimes as if it were the same country. The Israel Lobby and the government of Israel has for decades exerted a powerful control over U.S. Middle East policies and much more as well.  The Mossad has often worked closely under the aegis of the CIA together with Britain’s M16 to assassinate opponents and provoke war after war.

    Donald Rumsfeld, as a key long time insider to U.S. deep state operations, was surely aware of my list of known knowns.  He was just one of many such slick talkers involved in demonic U.S. operations that have always been justified, denied, or kept secret by him and his ilk.

    One does not have to be a criminologist to realize these things.  It is easy to imagine that Rumsfeld’s forlorn ghost is wandering since he went to his grave with his false “unknown unknowns” tucked away.

    When he said, “I could have said that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, or vice-versa,” he did say it, of course.  Despite double-talkers like him, evidence of decades of U.S. propaganda is easy to see through if one is compelled by the will-to-truth.

    “Ancestral voices prophesying war; ancestral spirits in the danse macabre or war dance; Valhalla, ghostly warriors who kill each other and are reborn to fight again.  All warfare is ghostly, every army an exercitus feralis (army of ghosts), every soldier a living corpse.”  – Norman O. Brown

    Note:  If you think I too have no evidence, look at this for many of them.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Edward Curtin.

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    RSF hails decision to award Nobel Peace Prize to Iranian journalist https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/07/rsf-hails-decision-to-award-nobel-peace-prize-to-iranian-journalist/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/07/rsf-hails-decision-to-award-nobel-peace-prize-to-iranian-journalist/#respond Sat, 07 Oct 2023 22:08:40 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=94239 Pacific Media Watch

    Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has hailed the news that Narges Mohammadi — an Iranian journalist RSF has been defending for years — has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her “fight against the oppression of women in Iran,” her courage and determination.

    Persecuted by the Iranian authorities since the late 1990s for her work, and imprisoned again since November 2021, she must be freed at once, RSF declared in a statement.

    “Speak to save Iran” is the title of one of the letters published by Mohammadi from Evin prison, near Tehran, where she has been serving a sentence of 10 years and 9 months in prison since 16 November 2021.

    • READ MORE: Iran’s jailed rights advocate Narges Mohammadi wins 2023 Nobel Peace Prize
    • Other Narges Mohammadi reports

    She has also been sentenced to hundreds of lashes. The maker of a documentary entitled White Torture and the author of a book of the same name, Mohammadi has never stopped denouncing the sexual violence inflicted on women prisoners in Iran.

    It is this fight against the oppression of women that the Nobel Committee has just saluted by awarding the Peace Prize to this 51-year-old journalist and human rights activist, the former vice-president of the Defenders of Human Rights Centre, the Iranian human rights organisation that was created by Shirin Ebadi, the Iranian lawyer who was herself awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003.

    It is because of this fight that Mohammadi has been hounded by the Iranian authorities, who continue to persecute her in prison.

    She has been denied visits and telephone calls since 12 April 2022, cutting her off from the world.

    New charges
    At the same time, the authorities in Evin prison have brought new charges to keep her in detention.

    On August 4, her jail term was increased by a year after the publication of another of her letters about violence against fellow women detainees.


    White Torture: The infamy of solitary confinement in Iran with Narges Mohammadi.

    Mohammadi was awarded the RSF Prize for Courage on 12 December 2023. At the award ceremony in Paris, her two children, whom she has not seen for eight years, read one of the letters she wrote to them from prison.

    “In this country, amid all the suffering, all the fears and all the hopes, and when, after years of imprisonment, I am behind bars again and I can no longer even hear the voices of my children, it is with a heart full of passion, hope and vitality, full of confidence in the achievement of freedom and justice in my country that I will spend time in prison,” she wrote.

    She ended the letter with a call to keep alive “the hope of victory”.

    RSF secretary-general Christophe Deloire said:

    “It is with immense emotion that I learn that the Nobel Peace Prize is being awarded to the journalist and human rights defender Narges Mohammadi.

    At Reporters Without Borders (RSF), we have been fighting for her for years, alongside her husband and her two children, and with Shirin Ebadi. The Nobel Peace Prize will obviously be decisive in obtaining her release.”

    On June 7, RSF referred the unacceptable conditions in which Mohammadi is being detained to all of the relevant UN human rights bodies.

    During an oral update to the UN Human Rights Council on July 5, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran expressed concern over the “continued detention of human rights defenders and lawyers defending the protesters, and at least 17 journalists”.

    It is thanks to Mohammadi’s journalistic courage that the world knows what is happening in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s prisons, where 20 journalists are currently detained.

    They include three other women: Elaheh Mohammadi, Niloofar Hamedi and Vida Rabbani.

    Pacific Media Watch collaborates with Reporters Without Borders.


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by Pacific Media Watch.

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    [Nader Hashemi] Iran: The Struggle for Democracy https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/05/nader-hashemi-iran-the-struggle-for-democracy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/05/nader-hashemi-iran-the-struggle-for-democracy/#respond Thu, 05 Oct 2023 21:00:54 +0000 https://www.alternativeradio.org/products/hasn004/
    This content originally appeared on AlternativeRadio and was authored by info@alternativeradio.org.

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    Ambassador of Israeli Crimes: This is How Gilad Erdan Become a Defender of Women’s Rights in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/05/ambassador-of-israeli-crimes-this-is-how-gilad-erdan-become-a-defender-of-womens-rights-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/05/ambassador-of-israeli-crimes-this-is-how-gilad-erdan-become-a-defender-of-womens-rights-in-iran/#respond Thu, 05 Oct 2023 06:00:33 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=296591 Erdan's work is predicated mostly on a single tactic: If he is not pleased by the conduct of his peers at the UN General Assembly, he simply accuses them of being ‘anti-Semitic’, as a matter of course. At times, the entire UN political body is accused of being anti-Israel and anti-Semitic. This Israeli strategy - defaming truthsayers as anti-Semites - only succeeds because it is part of a massive political and intellectual discourse that is constantly fed by the media and accepted as a fact by Western politicians.
    More

    The post Ambassador of Israeli Crimes: This is How Gilad Erdan Become a Defender of Women’s Rights in Iran appeared first on CounterPunch.org.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Ramzy Baroud.

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    Teenager In Coma After Morality Police Apprehend Her In Tehran, Rights Group Says #iran #tehran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/04/teenager-in-coma-after-morality-police-apprehend-her-in-tehran-rights-group-says/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/10/04/teenager-in-coma-after-morality-police-apprehend-her-in-tehran-rights-group-says/#respond Wed, 04 Oct 2023 09:41:20 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=06cb6021b29e79dc2754fea620633105
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    War of Economic Corridors: the India-Mideast-Europe Ploy https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/27/war-of-economic-corridors-the-india-mideast-europe-ploy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/27/war-of-economic-corridors-the-india-mideast-europe-ploy/#respond Wed, 27 Sep 2023 13:35:54 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=144331

    The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a massive public diplomacy op launched at the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, complete with a memorandum of understanding signed on 9 September.

    Players include the US, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the EU, with a special role for the latter’s top three powers Germany, France, and Italy. It’s a multimodal railway project, coupled with trans-shipments and with ancillary digital and electricity roads extending to Jordan and Israel.

    If this walks and talks like the collective west’s very late response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched 10 years ago and celebrating a Belt and Road Forum in Beijing next month, that’s because it is. And yes, it is, above all, yet another American project to bypass China, to be claimed for crude electoral purposes as a meager foreign policy “success.”

    No one among the Global Majority remembers that the Americans came up with their own Silk Road plan way back in 2010. The concept came from the State Department’s Kurt Campbell and was sold by then-Secretary Hillary Clinton as her idea. History is implacable, it came down to nought.

    And no one among the Global Majority remembers the New Silk Road plan peddled by Poland, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 2010s, complete with four troublesome trans-shipments in the Black Sea and the Caspian. History is implacable, this too came down to nought.

    In fact, very few among the Global Majority remember the $40 trillion US-sponsored Build Back Better World (BBBW, or B3W) global plan rolled out with great fanfare just two summers ago, focusing on “climate, health and health security, digital technology, and gender equity and equality.”

    A year later, at a G7 meeting, B3W had already shrunk to a $600 billion infrastructure-and-investment project. Of course, nothing was built. History really is implacable, it came down to nought.

    The same fate awaits IMEC, for a number of very specific reasons.

    Map of The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

    Pivoting to a black void 

    The whole IMEC rationale rests on what writer and former Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar deliciously described as “conjuring up the Abraham Accords by the incantation of a Saudi-Israeli tango.”

    This tango is Dead On Arrival; even the ghost of Piazzolla can’t revive it. For starters, one of the principals – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman – has made it clear that Riyadh’s priorities are a new, energized Chinese-brokered relationship with Iran, with Turkiye, and with Syria after its return to the Arab League.

    Moreover, both Riyadh and its Emirati IMEC partner share immense trade, commerce, and energy interests with China, so they’re not going to do anything to upset Beijing.

    At face value, IMEC proposes a joint drive by G7 and BRICS 11 nations. That’s the western method of seducing eternally-hedging India under Modi and US-allied Saudi Arabia and the UAE to its agenda.

    Its real intention, however, is not only to undermine BRI, but also the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), in which India is a major player alongside Russia and Iran.

    The game is quite crude and really quite obvious: a transportation corridor conceived to bypass the top three vectors of real Eurasia integration – and BRICS members China, Russia, and Iran – by dangling an enticing Divide and Rule carrot that promises Things That Cannot Be Delivered.

    The American neoliberal obsession at this stage of the New Great Game is, as always, all about Israel. Their goal is to make Haifa port viable and turn it into a key transportation hub between West Asia and Europe. Everything else is subordinated to this Israeli imperative.

    IMEC, in principle, will transit across West Asia to link India to Eastern and Western Europe – selling the fiction that India is a Global Pivot state and a Convergence of Civilizations.

    Nonsense. While India’s great dream is to become a pivot state, its best shot would be via the already up-and-running INTSC, which could open markets to New Delhi from Central Asia to the Caucasus. Otherwise, as a Global Pivot state, Russia is way ahead of India diplomatically, and China is way ahead in trade and connectivity.

    Comparisons between IMEC and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are futile. IMEC is a joke compared to this BRI flagship project: the $57.7 billion plan to build a railway over 3,000 km long linking Kashgar in Xinjiang to Gwadar in the Arabian Sea, which will connect to other overland BRI corridors heading toward Iran and Turkiye.

    This is a matter of national security for China. So bets can be made that the leadership in Beijing will have some discreet and serious conversations with the current fifth-columnists in power in Islamabad, before or during the Belt and Road Forum, to remind them of the relevant geostrategic, geoeconomic, and investment Facts.

    So, what’s left for Indian trade in all of this? Not much. They already use the Suez Canal, a direct, tested route. There’s no incentive to even start contemplating being stuck in black voids across the vast desert expanses surrounding the Persian Gulf.

    One glaring problem, for example, is that almost 1,100 km of tracks are “missing” from the railway from Fujairah in the UAE to Haifa, 745 km “missing” from Jebel Ali in Dubai to Haifa, and 630 km “missing” from the railway from Abu Dhabi to Haifa.

    When all the missing links are added up, there’s over 3,000 km of railway still to be built. The Chinese, of course, can do this for breakfast and on a dime, but they are not part of this game. And there’s no evidence the IMEC gang plans to invite them.

    All eyes on Syunik 

    In the War of Transportation Corridors charted in detail for The Cradle in June 2022, it becomes clear that intentions rarely meet reality. These grand projects are all about logistics, logistics, logistics – of course, intertwined with the three other key pillars: energy and energy resources, labor and manufacturing, and market/trade rules.

    Let’s examine a Central Asian example. Russia and three Central Asian “stans” – Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – are launching a multimodal Southern Transportation Corridor which will bypass Kazakhstan.

    Why? After all, Kazakhstan, alongside Russia, is a key member of both the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

    The reason is because this new corridor solves two key problems for Russia that arose with the west’s sanctions hysteria. It bypasses the Kazakh border, where everything going to Russia is scrutinized in excruciating detail. And a significant part of the cargo may now be transferred to the Russian port of Astrakhan in the Caspian.

    So Astana, which under western pressure has played a risky hedging game on Russia, may end up losing the status of a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region. Kazakhstan is also part of BRI; the Chinese are already very much interested in the potential of this new corridor.

    In the Caucasus, the story is even more complex, and once again, it’s all about Divide and Rule.

    Two months ago, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan committed to building a single railway from Iran and its ports in the Persian Gulf through Azerbaijan, to be linked to the Russian-Eastern Europe railway system.

    This is a railway project on the scale of the Trans-Siberian – to connect Eastern Europe with Eastern Africa and South Asia, bypassing the Suez Canal and European ports. The INSTC on steroids, in fact.

    Guess what happened next? A provocation in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the deadly potential of involving not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but also Iran and Turkiye.

    Tehran has been crystal clear on its red lines: it will never allow a defeat of Armenia, with direct participation from Turkiye, which fully supports Azerbaijan.

    Add to the incendiary mix are joint military exercises with the US in Armenia – which happens to be a member of the Russian-led CSTO – cast, for public consumption, as one of those seemingly innocent “partnership” NATO programs.

    This all spells out an IMEC subplot bound to undermine INTSC. Both Russia and Iran are fully aware of the former’s endemic weaknesses: political trouble between several participants, those “missing links” of track, and all important infrastructure still to be built.

    Turkish Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his part, will never give up the Zangezur corridor across Syunik, the south Armenian province, which was envisaged by the 2020 armistice, linking Azerbaijan to Turkiye via the Azeri enclave of Nakhitchevan – that will run through Armenian territory.

    Baku did threaten to attack southern Armenia if the Zangezur corridor was not facilitated by Yerevan. So Syunik is the next big unresolved deal in this riddle. Tehran, it must be noted, will go no holds barred to prevent a Turkish-Israeli-NATO corridor cutting Iran off from Armenia, Georgia, the Black Sea, and Russia. That would be the reality if this NATO-tinted coalition grabs Syunik.

    Today, Erdogan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev meet in the Nakhchivan enclave between Turkiye, Armenia, and Iran to start a gas pipeline and open a military production complex.

    The Sultan knows that Zangezur may finally allow Turkiye to be linked to China via a corridor that will transit the Turkic world, in Azerbaijan and the Caspian. This would also allow the collective west to go even bolder on Divide and Rule against Russia and Iran.

    Is the IMEC another far-fetched western fantasy? The place to watch is Syunik.

  • Originally published at The Cradle.

  • This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Pepe Escobar.

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    Iran using UN nuclear watchdog to ‘retaliate’ against criticism: Grossi https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/20/iran-using-un-nuclear-watchdog-to-retaliate-against-criticism-grossi/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/20/iran-using-un-nuclear-watchdog-to-retaliate-against-criticism-grossi/#respond Wed, 20 Sep 2023 19:06:11 +0000 https://news.un.org/feed/view/en/audio/2023/09/1141137 The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Wednesday that Iran is “restricting” cooperation with his inspection teams over its nuclear programme as a way of retaliating to criticism.

    Director-General Mariano Grossi spoke to UN News’s Cristina Silveiro about the “complex logic” behind the move to bar multiple inspectors there, the safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion, and the latest on the Fukushima nuclear wastewater issue.


    This content originally appeared on UN News - Global perspective Human stories and was authored by Cristina Silveiro.

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    Iran using UN nuclear watchdog to ‘retaliate’ against criticism: Grossi https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/20/iran-using-un-nuclear-watchdog-to-retaliate-against-criticism-grossi-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/20/iran-using-un-nuclear-watchdog-to-retaliate-against-criticism-grossi-2/#respond Wed, 20 Sep 2023 19:06:11 +0000 https://news.un.org/feed/view/en/audio/2023/09/1141132 The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Wednesday that Iran is “restricting” cooperation with his inspection teams over its nuclear programme as a way of retaliating to criticism.

    Director-General Mariano Grossi spoke to UN News’s Cristina Silveiro about the “complex logic” behind the move to bar multiple inspectors there, the safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion, and the latest on the Fukushima nuclear wastewater issue.


    This content originally appeared on UN News - Global perspective Human stories and was authored by Cristina Silveiro.

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    Iran using UN nuclear watchdog to ‘retaliate’ against criticism: Grossi https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/20/iran-using-un-nuclear-watchdog-to-retaliate-against-criticism-grossi-3/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/20/iran-using-un-nuclear-watchdog-to-retaliate-against-criticism-grossi-3/#respond Wed, 20 Sep 2023 19:06:11 +0000 https://news.un.org/en/audio/2023/09/1141132 The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Wednesday that Iran is “restricting” cooperation with his inspection teams over its nuclear programme as a way of retaliating to criticism.

    Director-General Mariano Grossi spoke to UN News’s Cristina Silveiro about the “complex logic” behind the move to bar multiple inspectors there, the safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion, and the latest on the Fukushima nuclear wastewater issue.


    This content originally appeared on UN News - Global perspective Human stories and was authored by Cristina Silveiro.

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    U.S. & Iran Complete Prisoner Swap; Iranian Protesters Mark One Year Since Death of Mahsa Amini https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/19/u-s-iran-complete-prisoner-swap-iranian-protesters-mark-one-year-since-death-of-mahsa-amini/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/19/u-s-iran-complete-prisoner-swap-iranian-protesters-mark-one-year-since-death-of-mahsa-amini/#respond Tue, 19 Sep 2023 14:14:39 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=1e4d6ec9a8c3807c8bb9371b1c10deaa
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    U.S. & Iran Complete Prisoner Swap; Iranian Protesters Mark One Year Since Death of Mahsa Amini https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/19/u-s-iran-complete-prisoner-swap-iranian-protesters-mark-one-year-since-death-of-mahsa-amini-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/19/u-s-iran-complete-prisoner-swap-iranian-protesters-mark-one-year-since-death-of-mahsa-amini-2/#respond Tue, 19 Sep 2023 12:13:48 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=7135e7f560024fe2175892ed253933c2 Booksplitv1

    As the Biden administration and Tehran carry out a prisoner swap that also includes the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue, we look at the state of U.S.-Iran relations with journalist Negar Mortazavi, host of The Iran Podcast. The deal represents a major diplomatic breakthrough between the two countries since the end of the Iran nuclear deal, from which the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew in 2018. The prisoner swap came just after the anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody last year, which set off nationwide protests against the Iranian government. “What we saw over the past year after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini was nothing short of a mass movement and also, essentially, a cultural revolution,” says Mortazavi, who notes the protests have led to a loosening of social restrictions despite the government crackdown. “I don’t think the government can push it back to where it was before the killing of Mahsa Amini.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    The Pacifica Evening News, Weekdays – September 18, 2023 US Iran reach agreement to free American hostages in exchange for frozen Iranian assets. https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/18/the-pacifica-evening-news-weekdays-september-18-2023-us-iran-reach-agreement-to-free-american-hostages-in-exchange-for-frozen-iranian-assets/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/18/the-pacifica-evening-news-weekdays-september-18-2023-us-iran-reach-agreement-to-free-american-hostages-in-exchange-for-frozen-iranian-assets/#respond Mon, 18 Sep 2023 18:00:00 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=0cfa793e7e6f3f387095fa5cc1137b41 Comprehensive coverage of the day’s news with a focus on war and peace; social, environmental and economic justice.

    • US Iran reach agreement to free American hostages in exchange for frozen Iranian assets.
    • UAW workers enter fourth day of strike of Detroit automakers with no deal in sight.
    • Flood damaged eastern Libya faces health crisis due to lack of clean drinking water.
    • Federal Reserve to meet, no further interest rate hikes expected.
    • Governor Newsom plans to sign bills to hold companies accountable for their carbon footprint.
    • Climate change week underway in New York, meetings and rallies planned. 

    The post The Pacifica Evening News, Weekdays – September 18, 2023 US Iran reach agreement to free American hostages in exchange for frozen Iranian assets. appeared first on KPFA.


    This content originally appeared on KPFA - The Pacifica Evening News, Weekdays and was authored by KPFA.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/18/the-pacifica-evening-news-weekdays-september-18-2023-us-iran-reach-agreement-to-free-american-hostages-in-exchange-for-frozen-iranian-assets/feed/ 0 428055
    International Rallies Mark The Death That Shook Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/17/international-rallies-mark-the-death-that-shook-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/17/international-rallies-mark-the-death-that-shook-iran/#respond Sun, 17 Sep 2023 15:46:26 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=978e98939fb9e79cc0c27c2844d21c30
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Mahsa Amini: The Funeral That Sparked Nationwide Anti-Government Protests In Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/14/mahsa-amini-the-funeral-that-sparked-nationwide-anti-government-protests-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/14/mahsa-amini-the-funeral-that-sparked-nationwide-anti-government-protests-in-iran/#respond Thu, 14 Sep 2023 15:36:06 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9afb7f47a4d9606166866edbc42bc7ae
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Mahsa Amini: The Funeral That Sparked Nationwide Anti-Government Protests In Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/14/mahsa-amini-the-funeral-that-sparked-nationwide-anti-government-protests-in-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/14/mahsa-amini-the-funeral-that-sparked-nationwide-anti-government-protests-in-iran-2/#respond Thu, 14 Sep 2023 15:36:06 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9afb7f47a4d9606166866edbc42bc7ae
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Iran Interrupted: Mossadegh, the Shah, Khomeini and the U.S. Press https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/08/iran-interrupted-mossadegh-the-shah-khomeini-and-the-u-s-press/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/08/iran-interrupted-mossadegh-the-shah-khomeini-and-the-u-s-press/#respond Fri, 08 Sep 2023 05:50:10 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=293770 Journalism has often been called the first rough draft of history.  If at all true, then American press coverage of Iran, which began in earnest 70 years ago, has never gotten past the incomplete, uninformed and inaccurate first draft version.   Both Iranians and Americans have been victims of a distorted draft; distortions that have basically remained unchanged More

    The post Iran Interrupted: Mossadegh, the Shah, Khomeini and the U.S. Press appeared first on CounterPunch.org.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by M. Reza Behnam.

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    Iran blocks Entekhab’s website and social media over report criticizing foreign policy https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/05/iran-blocks-entekhabs-website-and-social-media-over-report-criticizing-foreign-policy/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/09/05/iran-blocks-entekhabs-website-and-social-media-over-report-criticizing-foreign-policy/#respond Tue, 05 Sep 2023 19:01:00 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=312704 Washington, D.C., September 5, 2023—Iranian authorities must reverse their decision to shut down the moderate Tehran-based state-run news website Entekhab and allow media outlets to report the news freely, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Tuesday.

    On Monday, September 4, the Press Supervisory Board of Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance revoked Entekhab’s operating license indefinitely and blocked the outlet’s website and social media accounts in the country. 

    The ban followed an August 22 video report headlined “Iran’s Brand on Sale, Why has Iran’s Foreign Policy Become so Weak?,” which criticized President Ebrahim Raisi’s foreign policy. The Press Supervisory Board said the report was “in contradiction with national interests and against the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy principles.”

    “Truthful and open reporting on matters of state policy is vitally important for the Iranian public,” said Sherif Mansour, CPJ’s Middle East and North Africa program coordinator. “Iranian authorities must immediately allow Entekhab to resume publication and cease any attempts to censor the media.”

    CPJ’s email to the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance did not receive a reply.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Committee to Protect Journalists.

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    On 1 January 2024, the World’s Centre of Gravity Will Shift https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/on-1-january-2024-the-worlds-centre-of-gravity-will-shift/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/on-1-january-2024-the-worlds-centre-of-gravity-will-shift/#respond Thu, 31 Aug 2023 15:57:42 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=143601 Abdel Hadi el-Gazzar (Egypt), The Popular Chorus or Food or Comrades on the Theatre of Life, 1948 (post-dated 1951).

    On the last day of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, the five founding states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) welcomed six new members: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The BRICS partnership now encompasses 47.3 percent of the world’s population, with a combined global Gross Domestic Product (by purchasing power parity, or PPP,) of 36.4 percent. In comparison, though the G7 states (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) account for merely 10 percent of the world’s population, their share of the global GDP (by PPP) is 30.4 percent. In 2021, the nations that today form the expanded BRICS group were responsible for 38.3 percent of global industrial output while their G7 counterparts accounted for 30.5 percent. All available indicators, including harvest production and the total volume of metal production, show the immense power of this new grouping.  Celso Amorim, advisor to the Brazilian government and one of the architects of BRICS during his former tenure as foreign minister, said of the new development that ‘[t]he world can no longer be dictated by the G7’.

    Certainly, the BRICS nations, for all their internal hierarchies and challenges, now represent a larger share of the global GDP than the G7, which continues to behave as the world’s executive body. Over forty countries expressed an interest in joining BRICS, although only twenty-three applied for membership before the South Africa meeting (including seven of the thirteen countries in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC). Indonesia, the world’s seventh largest country in terms of GDP (by PPP), withdrew its application to BRICS at the last moment but said it would consider joining later. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo’s comments reflect the mood of the summit: ‘We must reject trade discrimination. Industrial downstreaming must not be hindered. We must all continue to voice equal and inclusive cooperation’.

    Tadesse Mesfin (Ethiopia), Pillars of Life: Waiting, 2018

    BRICS does not operate independently of new regional formations that aim to build platforms outside the grip of the West, such as the Community of Latin America and Caribbean States (CELAC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Instead, BRICS membership has the potential to enhance regionalism for those already within these regional fora. Both sets of interregional bodies are leaning into a historical tide supported by important data, analysed by Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research using a range of widely available and reliable global databases. The facts are clear: the Global North’s percentage of world GDP fell from 57.3 percent in 1993 to 40.6 percent in 2022, with the US’s percentage shrinking from 19.7 percent to only 15.6 percent of global GDP (by PPP) in the same period – despite its monopoly privilege. In 2022, the Global South, without China, had a GDP (by PPP) greater than that of the Global North.

    The West, perhaps because of its rapid relative economic decline, is struggling to maintain its hegemony by driving a New Cold War against emergent states such as China. Perhaps the single best evidence of the racial, political, military, and economic plans of the Western powers can be summed up by a recent declaration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU): ‘NATO and the EU play complementary, coherent and mutually reinforcing roles in supporting international peace and security. We will further mobilise the combined set of instruments at our disposal, be they political, economic, or military, to pursue our common objectives to the benefit of our one billion citizens’.

    Alia Ahmad (Saudi Arabia), Hameel – Morning Rain, 2022

    Why did BRICS welcome such a disparate group of countries, including two monarchies, into its fold? When asked to reflect on the character of the new full member states, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said, ‘What matters is not the person who governs but the importance of the country. We can’t deny the geopolitical importance of Iran and other countries that will join BRICS’. This is the measure of how the founding countries made the decision to expand their alliance. At the heart of BRICS’s growth are at least three issues: control over energy supplies and pathways, control over global financial and development systems, and control over institutions for peace and security.

    Houshang Pezeshknia (Iran), Khark, 1958

    A larger BRICS has now created a formidable energy group. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are also members of OPEC, which, with Russia, a key member of OPEC+, now accounts for 26.3 million barrels of oil per day, just below thirty percent of global daily oil production. Egypt, which is not an OPEC member, is nonetheless one of the largest African oil producers, with an output of 567,650 barrels per day. China’s role in brokering a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in April enabled the entry of both of these oil-producing countries into BRICS. The issue here is not just the production of oil, but the establishment of new global energy pathways.

    The Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative has already created a web of oil and natural gas platforms around the Global South, integrated into the expansion of Khalifa Port and natural gas facilities at Fujairah and Ruwais in the UAE, alongside the development of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. There is every expectation that the expanded BRICS will begin to coordinate its energy infrastructure outside of OPEC+, including the volumes of oil and natural gas that are drawn out of the earth. Tensions between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil volumes have simmered this year as Russia exceeded its quota to compensate for Western sanctions placed on it due to the war in Ukraine. Now these two countries will have another forum, outside of OPEC+ and with China at the table, to build a common agenda on energy. Saudi Arabia plans to sell oil to China in renminbi (RMB), undermining the structure of the petrodollar system (China’s two other main oil providers, Iraq and Russia, already receive payment in RMB).

    Juan Del Prete (Argentina), The Embrace, 1937–1944

    Both the discussions at the BRICS summit and its final communiqué focused on the need to strengthen a financial and development architecture for the world that is not governed by the triumvirate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Wall Street, and the US dollar. However, BRICS does not seek to circumvent established global trade and development institutions such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the World Bank, and the IMF. For instance, BRICS reaffirmed the importance of the ‘rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organisation at its core’ and called for ‘a robust Global Financial Safety Net with a quota-based and adequately resourced [IMF] at its centre’. Its proposals do not fundamentally break with the IMF or WTO; rather, they offer a dual pathway forward: first, for BRICS to exert more control and direction over these organisations, of which they are members but have been suborned to a Western agenda, and second, for BRICS states to realise their aspirations to build their own parallel institutions (such as the New Development Bank, or NDB). Saudi Arabia’s massive investment fund is worth close to $1 trillion, which could partially resource the NDB.

    BRICS’s agenda to improve ‘the stability, reliability, and fairness of the global financial architecture’ is mostly being carried forward by the ‘use of local currencies, alternative financial arrangements, and alternative payment systems’. The concept of ‘local currencies’ refers to the growing practice of states using their own currencies for cross-border trade rather than relying upon the dollar. Though approximately 150 currencies in the world are considered to be legal tender, cross-border payments almost always rely on the dollar (which, as of 2021, accounts for 40 percent of flows over the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT, network).

    Other currencies play a limited role, with the Chinese RMB comprising 2.5 percent of cross-border payments. However, the emergence of new global messaging platforms – such as China’s Cross-Border Payment Interbank System, India’s Unified Payments Interface, and Russia’s Financial Messaging System (SPFS) – as well as regional digital currency systems promise to increase the use of alternative currencies. For instance, cryptocurrency assets briefly provided a potential avenue for new trading systems before their asset valuations declined, and the expanded BRICS recently approved the establishment of a working group to study a BRICS reference currency.

    Following the expansion of BRICS, the NDB said that it will also expand its members and that, as its General Strategy, 2022–2026 notes, thirty percent of all of its financing will be in local currencies. As part of its framework for a new development system, its president, Dilma Rousseff, said that the NDB will not follow the IMF policy of imposing conditions on borrowing countries. ‘We repudiate any kind of conditionality’, Rousseff said. ‘Often a loan is given upon the condition that certain policies are carried out. We don’t do that. We respect the policies of each country’.

    Amir H. Fallah (Iran), I Want To Live, To Cry, To Survive, To Love, To Die, 2023

    In their communiqué, the BRICS nations write about the importance of ‘comprehensive reform of the UN, including its Security Council’. Currently, the UN Security Council has fifteen members, five of which are permanent (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US). There are no permanent members from Africa, Latin America, or the most populous country in the world, India. To repair these inequities, BRICS offers its support to ‘the legitimate aspirations of emerging and developing countries from Africa, Asia, and Latin America, including Brazil, India, and South Africa to play a greater role in international affairs’. The West’s refusal to allow these countries a permanent seat at the UN Security Council has only strengthened their commitment to the BRICS process and to enhance their role in the G20.

    The entry of Ethiopia and Iran into BRICS shows how these large Global South states are reacting to the West’s sanctions policy against dozens of countries, including two founding BRICS members (China and Russia). The Group of Friends in Defence of the UN Charter – Venezuela’s initiative from 2019 – brings together twenty UN member states that are facing the brunt of illegal US sanctions, from Algeria to Zimbabwe. Many of these states attended the BRICS summit as invitees and are eager to join the expanded BRICS as full members.

    We are not living in a period of revolutions. Socialists always seek to advance democratic and progressive trends. As is often the case in history, the actions of a dying empire create common ground for its victims to look for new alternatives, no matter how embryonic and contradictory they are. The diversity of support for the expansion of BRICS is an indication of the growing loss of political hegemony of imperialism.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Vijay Prashad.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/on-1-january-2024-the-worlds-centre-of-gravity-will-shift/feed/ 0 424182
    On 1 January 2024, the World’s Centre of Gravity Will Shift https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/on-1-january-2024-the-worlds-centre-of-gravity-will-shift/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/on-1-january-2024-the-worlds-centre-of-gravity-will-shift/#respond Thu, 31 Aug 2023 15:57:42 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=143601 Abdel Hadi el-Gazzar (Egypt), The Popular Chorus or Food or Comrades on the Theatre of Life, 1948 (post-dated 1951).

    On the last day of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, the five founding states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) welcomed six new members: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The BRICS partnership now encompasses 47.3 percent of the world’s population, with a combined global Gross Domestic Product (by purchasing power parity, or PPP,) of 36.4 percent. In comparison, though the G7 states (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) account for merely 10 percent of the world’s population, their share of the global GDP (by PPP) is 30.4 percent. In 2021, the nations that today form the expanded BRICS group were responsible for 38.3 percent of global industrial output while their G7 counterparts accounted for 30.5 percent. All available indicators, including harvest production and the total volume of metal production, show the immense power of this new grouping.  Celso Amorim, advisor to the Brazilian government and one of the architects of BRICS during his former tenure as foreign minister, said of the new development that ‘[t]he world can no longer be dictated by the G7’.

    Certainly, the BRICS nations, for all their internal hierarchies and challenges, now represent a larger share of the global GDP than the G7, which continues to behave as the world’s executive body. Over forty countries expressed an interest in joining BRICS, although only twenty-three applied for membership before the South Africa meeting (including seven of the thirteen countries in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC). Indonesia, the world’s seventh largest country in terms of GDP (by PPP), withdrew its application to BRICS at the last moment but said it would consider joining later. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo’s comments reflect the mood of the summit: ‘We must reject trade discrimination. Industrial downstreaming must not be hindered. We must all continue to voice equal and inclusive cooperation’.

    Tadesse Mesfin (Ethiopia), Pillars of Life: Waiting, 2018

    BRICS does not operate independently of new regional formations that aim to build platforms outside the grip of the West, such as the Community of Latin America and Caribbean States (CELAC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Instead, BRICS membership has the potential to enhance regionalism for those already within these regional fora. Both sets of interregional bodies are leaning into a historical tide supported by important data, analysed by Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research using a range of widely available and reliable global databases. The facts are clear: the Global North’s percentage of world GDP fell from 57.3 percent in 1993 to 40.6 percent in 2022, with the US’s percentage shrinking from 19.7 percent to only 15.6 percent of global GDP (by PPP) in the same period – despite its monopoly privilege. In 2022, the Global South, without China, had a GDP (by PPP) greater than that of the Global North.

    The West, perhaps because of its rapid relative economic decline, is struggling to maintain its hegemony by driving a New Cold War against emergent states such as China. Perhaps the single best evidence of the racial, political, military, and economic plans of the Western powers can be summed up by a recent declaration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU): ‘NATO and the EU play complementary, coherent and mutually reinforcing roles in supporting international peace and security. We will further mobilise the combined set of instruments at our disposal, be they political, economic, or military, to pursue our common objectives to the benefit of our one billion citizens’.

    Alia Ahmad (Saudi Arabia), Hameel – Morning Rain, 2022

    Why did BRICS welcome such a disparate group of countries, including two monarchies, into its fold? When asked to reflect on the character of the new full member states, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said, ‘What matters is not the person who governs but the importance of the country. We can’t deny the geopolitical importance of Iran and other countries that will join BRICS’. This is the measure of how the founding countries made the decision to expand their alliance. At the heart of BRICS’s growth are at least three issues: control over energy supplies and pathways, control over global financial and development systems, and control over institutions for peace and security.

    Houshang Pezeshknia (Iran), Khark, 1958

    A larger BRICS has now created a formidable energy group. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are also members of OPEC, which, with Russia, a key member of OPEC+, now accounts for 26.3 million barrels of oil per day, just below thirty percent of global daily oil production. Egypt, which is not an OPEC member, is nonetheless one of the largest African oil producers, with an output of 567,650 barrels per day. China’s role in brokering a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in April enabled the entry of both of these oil-producing countries into BRICS. The issue here is not just the production of oil, but the establishment of new global energy pathways.

    The Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative has already created a web of oil and natural gas platforms around the Global South, integrated into the expansion of Khalifa Port and natural gas facilities at Fujairah and Ruwais in the UAE, alongside the development of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. There is every expectation that the expanded BRICS will begin to coordinate its energy infrastructure outside of OPEC+, including the volumes of oil and natural gas that are drawn out of the earth. Tensions between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil volumes have simmered this year as Russia exceeded its quota to compensate for Western sanctions placed on it due to the war in Ukraine. Now these two countries will have another forum, outside of OPEC+ and with China at the table, to build a common agenda on energy. Saudi Arabia plans to sell oil to China in renminbi (RMB), undermining the structure of the petrodollar system (China’s two other main oil providers, Iraq and Russia, already receive payment in RMB).

    Juan Del Prete (Argentina), The Embrace, 1937–1944

    Both the discussions at the BRICS summit and its final communiqué focused on the need to strengthen a financial and development architecture for the world that is not governed by the triumvirate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Wall Street, and the US dollar. However, BRICS does not seek to circumvent established global trade and development institutions such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the World Bank, and the IMF. For instance, BRICS reaffirmed the importance of the ‘rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organisation at its core’ and called for ‘a robust Global Financial Safety Net with a quota-based and adequately resourced [IMF] at its centre’. Its proposals do not fundamentally break with the IMF or WTO; rather, they offer a dual pathway forward: first, for BRICS to exert more control and direction over these organisations, of which they are members but have been suborned to a Western agenda, and second, for BRICS states to realise their aspirations to build their own parallel institutions (such as the New Development Bank, or NDB). Saudi Arabia’s massive investment fund is worth close to $1 trillion, which could partially resource the NDB.

    BRICS’s agenda to improve ‘the stability, reliability, and fairness of the global financial architecture’ is mostly being carried forward by the ‘use of local currencies, alternative financial arrangements, and alternative payment systems’. The concept of ‘local currencies’ refers to the growing practice of states using their own currencies for cross-border trade rather than relying upon the dollar. Though approximately 150 currencies in the world are considered to be legal tender, cross-border payments almost always rely on the dollar (which, as of 2021, accounts for 40 percent of flows over the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT, network).

    Other currencies play a limited role, with the Chinese RMB comprising 2.5 percent of cross-border payments. However, the emergence of new global messaging platforms – such as China’s Cross-Border Payment Interbank System, India’s Unified Payments Interface, and Russia’s Financial Messaging System (SPFS) – as well as regional digital currency systems promise to increase the use of alternative currencies. For instance, cryptocurrency assets briefly provided a potential avenue for new trading systems before their asset valuations declined, and the expanded BRICS recently approved the establishment of a working group to study a BRICS reference currency.

    Following the expansion of BRICS, the NDB said that it will also expand its members and that, as its General Strategy, 2022–2026 notes, thirty percent of all of its financing will be in local currencies. As part of its framework for a new development system, its president, Dilma Rousseff, said that the NDB will not follow the IMF policy of imposing conditions on borrowing countries. ‘We repudiate any kind of conditionality’, Rousseff said. ‘Often a loan is given upon the condition that certain policies are carried out. We don’t do that. We respect the policies of each country’.

    Amir H. Fallah (Iran), I Want To Live, To Cry, To Survive, To Love, To Die, 2023

    In their communiqué, the BRICS nations write about the importance of ‘comprehensive reform of the UN, including its Security Council’. Currently, the UN Security Council has fifteen members, five of which are permanent (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US). There are no permanent members from Africa, Latin America, or the most populous country in the world, India. To repair these inequities, BRICS offers its support to ‘the legitimate aspirations of emerging and developing countries from Africa, Asia, and Latin America, including Brazil, India, and South Africa to play a greater role in international affairs’. The West’s refusal to allow these countries a permanent seat at the UN Security Council has only strengthened their commitment to the BRICS process and to enhance their role in the G20.

    The entry of Ethiopia and Iran into BRICS shows how these large Global South states are reacting to the West’s sanctions policy against dozens of countries, including two founding BRICS members (China and Russia). The Group of Friends in Defence of the UN Charter – Venezuela’s initiative from 2019 – brings together twenty UN member states that are facing the brunt of illegal US sanctions, from Algeria to Zimbabwe. Many of these states attended the BRICS summit as invitees and are eager to join the expanded BRICS as full members.

    We are not living in a period of revolutions. Socialists always seek to advance democratic and progressive trends. As is often the case in history, the actions of a dying empire create common ground for its victims to look for new alternatives, no matter how embryonic and contradictory they are. The diversity of support for the expansion of BRICS is an indication of the growing loss of political hegemony of imperialism.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Vijay Prashad.

    ]]>
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    A ‘Terrorist Onslaught’? This is Why Netanyahu, Gallant Blame Iran for West Bank Violence https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/a-terrorist-onslaught-this-is-why-netanyahu-gallant-blame-iran-for-west-bank-violence/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/a-terrorist-onslaught-this-is-why-netanyahu-gallant-blame-iran-for-west-bank-violence/#respond Thu, 31 Aug 2023 05:55:50 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=292937 Image of red Palestinian flag.

    Image by Ömer Yıldız.

    Despite their complicated and often uneasy relationship, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant agree on one thing: Iran is behind Israel’s security problem.

    The socio-economic polarization in Israel, the country’s political and judicial crises, the ongoing settlers’ pogroms in the West Bank, the repeated calls for religious war by Tel Aviv’s far-right ministers – all of these myriad problems are suddenly negligible. The problem is Iran.

    Though Iran, as a common enemy, often unites all major Israeli political parties, the supposed Iranian threat this time around, is quite different.

    “We are in the midst of a terrorist onslaught that is being encouraged, directed and financed by Iran and its proxies,” said Netanyahu of a Palestinian attack that killed a settler and wounded another near the occupied Palestinian city of Al-Khalil (Hebron) on August 21.

    The attack came only two days after another, which killed two Israeli settlers near the town of Huwwara, near Nablus, in the northern West Bank.

    Huwwara, a small town of 5,500 people, was the site of an outright pogrom by large mobs of armed Israeli Jewish settlers on February 26.

    Amnesty International described what occurred in the town as follows: “On the night of Sunday 26 February, hundreds of state-backed Israeli settlers carried out a spree of attacks against Palestinians (in Huwwara) … Settlers torched dozens of Palestinian cars, homes and orchards and physically assaulted Palestinians, including with metal bars and rocks.”

    Typically, every Palestinian attack on Israeli soldiers, armed settlers or even civilians is preceded by a multitude of deadly Israeli army raids or settler attacks on Palestinian communities.

    Not a day passes without Israeli violence in occupied Palestine. Reports by the United Nations, Palestinian, Israeli and international rights groups indicate that this year is the most violent in the West Bank in nearly two decades.

    More than 200 Palestinians have been killed and nearly 30 Israelis since January 2023, according to a statement to the UN Security Council by UN Middle East envoy, Tor Wennesland on August 21.

    Wennesland described the violence as a “concerning trend”, attributing it to a “growing sense of despair about the future,” UN News reported.

    The UN humanitarian agency, OCHA, had similar findings. It said that nearly 600 settler-related ‘incidents’ were reported in the Occupied Territories in the first six months of 2023. Settler attacks have resulted in “Palestinian casualties, property damage or both.”

    Neither Wennesland nor OCHA mentioned Iran in their statements, nor did the constant stream of reports on Israel’s ongoing violence, incitement or, at times, outright calls for genocide by settlers and their leaders in Netanyahu’s government.

    As for the reason behind the “sense of despair” mentioned in Wennesland’s UN briefing, the Israeli anti-settlement organization, Peace Now, may have an answer.

    In a statement issued on August 17, the Israeli group said that Netanyahu’s government is advancing a plan for ‘unprecedented investment’ of nearly $200 million in illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

    “There are clauses that have not yet determined the allocation amounts, so the total amount is expected to increase significantly,” Peace Now said on its website.

    Since a large sum of the funds is described as ‘undefined’ grants, the illegal settlements are allowed “to use the money for almost any purpose.”

    This can only mean expansion of the illegal settlements, construction of new outposts, ethnically cleansing Palestinians and paving the way for full, de jure annexation of the West Bank.

    The term ‘ethnic cleansing’ is not being used lightly here.

    Aside from the ‘incremental genocide’ happening daily throughout the Occupied Territories, at times large communities are being expelled, en masse.

    The Norwegian Refugee Council recently reported on the eviction of nearly 500 Palestinians from seven communities in the West Bank in a matter of 20 months, many of them from the Ras At-Tin Bedouin community, north of Ramallah.

    “Entire Palestinian communities being wiped off the map, a shameful legacy of unrelenting violence, intimidation and harassment perpetrated by Israeli settlers and, in some cases, encouraged by Israeli authorities,” Ana Povrzenic, NRC’s Country Director for Palestine commented on the findings.

    The list is endless, and nothing suggests that Iran is relevant to any part of this discussion.

    The direct link between the Israeli occupation and Palestinian relations cannot be denied by any honest observer.

    But neither Netanyahu nor Gallant is expected to be honest in their depiction of what is occurring in Palestine now.

    As if reading from the same script, Gallant agreed with his boss on the alleged Iranian threat. “The most significant change on the ground is related to Iranian financing and intent,” Gallant said, declaring that “Iran is looking for any way to harm the citizens of Israel.”

    The irony is that the Netanyahu-Gallant political conflict since March has fueled the greatest political crisis, arguably, in the history of the Israeli state. The crisis is enduring.

    Yet, now both are emerging as the stalwarts of Israeli security against a supposed Iranian threat. But why would the two agree on anything? And why Iran, in particular? And why now?

    Both Netanyahu and Gallant stand to gain from diverting attention from the reasons behind the ongoing rebellion in Palestine.

    For Netanyahu, blaming Iran allows him to stoke the fire of instability in the Middle East, unite all Israelis behind their supposed defender and avoid any accountability for the ongoing human rights violations in Palestine.

    As for Gallant, blaming Iran elevates the military and all branches of intelligence services; instead of being seen as failing to stop homegrown Palestinian struggle, he wants to paint an alternative image of a heroic army fighting an ‘existential threat’ hatched elsewhere.

    This is not a simple case of lacking self-awareness, but a deliberate diversion of the actual problem: the Israeli occupation and apartheid.

    Throughout the years, Israel has insisted that Palestinians are not political actors capable of making their own collective decisions, and that some bogeymen elsewhere – the Arabs, the Iranians, the communists, the Islamists, and so on … – are to blame.

    But Tel Aviv is wrong. For Israel to understand the reasons behind the growing Palestinian resistance in all of its forms, it needs to look at the devastated refugee camps of Jenin, Balata and Nur Shams – not Tehran – for the answers.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Ramzy Baroud.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/31/a-terrorist-onslaught-this-is-why-netanyahu-gallant-blame-iran-for-west-bank-violence/feed/ 0 424059
    Iran: Time Present and Time Past https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/25/iran-time-present-and-time-past/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/25/iran-time-present-and-time-past/#respond Fri, 25 Aug 2023 05:50:12 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=292581

    Photograph Source: Tasnim News Agency – CC BY-SA 4.0

    The January 6, 2021 insurrection in Washington D.C. reminds me of August 1953— the summer of my youth in Tehran, Iran.  My grandfather held my hand firmly as we walked to the Majlis (the parliament) in early August of that year to hear Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq debate the nationalization of Iranian oil.  

    Grandfather, a distinguished jurist of Iran’s High Court and former governor general of the province of Khorasan, was a charismatic raconteur and a man of impeccable taste.  He had been invited by the prime minister to witness the debate over the future of Iran’s oil, which was then in the hands of the British-owned  Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.  

    Tension was palpable on Tehran’s crowded streets. On our way to the Majlis, we passed by grandfather’s favorite newspaper offices which were being ransacked by Shaban Jafari, aka Shaban the Brainless, and his votaries.  Shaban the Brainless, a favorite thug of the monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was on the payroll of CIA operative, Kermit Roosevelt.  

    In his book, “Counter Coup: The Struggle for the Control of Iran,” Roosevelt explains how he was tasked by President Dwight D. Eisenhower and CIA Director, Allen Dulles to overthrow the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Mossadeq.  From the bowels of the sprawling U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Roosevelt set up his command post to carry out the CIA’s Operation Ajax.  

    Shaban the Brainless and his men were paid by Roosevelt to recruit insurrectionists and to harass and beat the prime minister’s supporters.  Grandfather and I saw them at the Majlis gate, intimidating visitors.  Fearing for my safety, grandfather swooped me into his arms; and for the first and last time in my life, I saw tears in his eyes.  He later explained those tears.  In his own beautiful way, he said, I brought you here (Majlis) to celebrate democracy and I am afraid we will now have to mourn for it. 

    The U.S.-British plot to control Iranian oil bent the arc of Iran’s burgeoning democracy toward despotism.  Authoritarianism was resurrected when the coup plotters returned the Shah to the throne.  With U.S. backing, he resumed power in August 1953 and became the anchor of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. 

    How little Washington knew of Iran was revealed in President Jimmy Carter’s 1977 New Year’s Eve toast in Tehran where he said, “Iran, because of the great leadership of the Shah, is an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world.”

    One week later, Iranians began to participate in massive demonstrations that eventually culminated in one of the 20th century’s greatest revolutions.   

    Iran is still recovering from the U.S.-British orchestrated coup that interrupted its nascent democracy.  Both the United States and Iran continue to suffer the unintended and long-term consequences of America’s misguided policy of regime change.

    U.S. pundits have been quick to point out that the January 6 violent attack on the nation’s Capitol was an aberration—“it’s not America” they say.  But in reality, it is woven tightly into the fabric of America.   

    In pursuit of its political, economic and military interests, the United States has toppled governments around the world since overthrowing the Hawaiian monarchy in 1893.  The CIA’s success in Iran emboldened it to topple the Guatemalan government in 1954 and led to the invasion of scores of other countries; including Lebanon, Vietnam and most recently Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya.    

    The mob attack on Iran’s parliament that I witnessed as a tyke has been forever seared in my memory.   It was also seared into the Iranian nation’s memory.  It took Iran more than a quarter of a century to redress their grievances by overthrowing the Shah and seizing the embassy from which the CIA hatched its coup.    

    At this time in our nation’s history, it behooves us to recall the words of T.S. Eliot:

    “Time present and time past

    Are both perhaps present in time future,

    And time future contained in time past….

    Time past and time future

    What might have been and what has been

    Point to one end, which is always present.”


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by M. Reza Behnam.

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    “It’s Always About Oil”: CIA & MI6 Staged Coup in Iran 70 Years Ago, Destroying Democracy in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/23/its-always-about-oil-cia-mi6-staged-coup-in-iran-70-years-ago-destroying-democracy-in-iran-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/23/its-always-about-oil-cia-mi6-staged-coup-in-iran-70-years-ago-destroying-democracy-in-iran-2/#respond Wed, 23 Aug 2023 14:33:48 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=a9dea73f38ab323d0433effd47bd207e
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

    ]]>
    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/23/its-always-about-oil-cia-mi6-staged-coup-in-iran-70-years-ago-destroying-democracy-in-iran-2/feed/ 0 421146
    “It’s Always About Oil”: CIA & MI6 Staged Coup in Iran 70 Years Ago, Destroying Democracy in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/23/its-always-about-oil-cia-mi6-staged-coup-in-iran-70-years-ago-destroying-democracy-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/23/its-always-about-oil-cia-mi6-staged-coup-in-iran-70-years-ago-destroying-democracy-in-iran/#respond Wed, 23 Aug 2023 12:29:21 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=554099c4520c12366cf84103864237fc Irancoup1953

    We look at the 70th anniversary of the August 19, 1953, U.S.- and U.K-backed coup in Iran, which took place two years after Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh nationalized Iran’s oil industry that had been controlled by the company now known as British Petroleum. “If nationalization in Iran of oil was successful, this would set a terrible example to other countries where U.S. oil interests were present,” explains Ervand Abrahamian, Iranian historian and author of Oil Crisis in Iran: From Nationalism to Coup d’Etat and The Coup: 1953, The CIA, and the Roots of Modern U.S.-Iranian Relations. While the CIA has historically taken credit for Mosaddegh’s overthrow, “the British have not admitted their leading role,” notes Iranian filmmaker Taghi Amirani, whose documentary film Coup 53 uncovers the influence of MI6 agents who sought to preserve their imperial-era access to Iranian oil and pulled in the Americans by promising a “slice.” Seventy years later, says Amirani, “We are still living with the ripples of this disastrous event.”


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/23/its-always-about-oil-cia-mi6-staged-coup-in-iran-70-years-ago-destroying-democracy-in-iran/feed/ 0 421133
    Out of the shadows: why making NZ’s security threat assessment public is timely https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/13/out-of-the-shadows-why-making-nzs-security-threat-assessment-public-is-timely/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/13/out-of-the-shadows-why-making-nzs-security-threat-assessment-public-is-timely/#respond Sun, 13 Aug 2023 00:35:43 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=91753 ANALYSIS: By Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato

    The release of the threat assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) this week is the final piece in a defence and security puzzle that marks a genuine shift towards more open and public discussion of these crucial policy areas.

    Together with July’s strategic foreign policy assessment from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the national security strategy released last week, it rounds out the picture of New Zealand’s place in a fast-evolving geopolitical landscape.

    From increased strategic competition between countries, to declining social trust within them, as well as rapid technological change, the overall message is clear: business as usual is no longer an option.

    • READ MORE: NZ’s first national security strategy signals a ‘turning point’ and the end of old certainties
    • The ‘number 8 wire’ days for NZ’s defence force are over — new priorities will demand bigger budgets

    By releasing the strategy documents in this way, the government and its various agencies clearly hope to win public consent and support — ultimately, the greatest asset any country possesses to defend itself.

    NZSIS’s first unclassified threat assessment targets competition, public trust, technology https://t.co/5wetaOL1oA

    — RNZ News (@rnz_news) August 10, 2023

    Low threat of violent extremism
    If there is good news in the SIS assessment, it is that the threat of violent extremism is still considered “low”. That means no change since the threat level was reassessed last year, with a terror attack considered “possible” rather than “probable”.

    It is a welcome development since the threat level was lifted to “high” in the
    immediate aftermath of the Christchurch terror attack in 2019.

    This was lowered to “medium” about a month later — where it sat in September 2021, when another extremist attacked people with a knife in an Auckland mall, seriously
    wounding five.

    The threat level stayed there during the escalating social tension resulting from the government’s covid response. This saw New Zealand’s first conviction for sabotage and increasing threats to politicians, with the SIS and police intervening in at least one case to mitigate the risk.

    After protesters were cleared from the grounds of Parliament in early 2022, it was
    still feared an act of extremism by a small minority was likely.

    These risks now seem to be receding. And while the threat assessment notes that the online world can provide havens for extremism, the vast majority of those expressing vitriolic rhetoric are deemed unlikely to carry through with violence in the real world.

    Changing patterns of extremism
    Assessments like this are not a crystal ball; threats can emerge quickly and be near-invisible before they do. But right now, at least publicly, the SIS is not aware of any specific or credible attack planning.

    New Zealand's Security Threat Environment 2023 report
    New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment 2023 report. Image: APR screenshot

    Many extremists still fit well-defined categories. There are the politically motivated, potentially violent, anti-authority conspiracy theorists, of which there is a “small number”.

    And there are those motivated by identity (with white supremacist extremism the dominant strand) or faith (such as support for Islamic State, a decreasing and “very small number”).

    However, the SIS describes a noticeable increase in individuals who don’t fit within those traditional boundaries, but who hold mixed, unstable or unclear ideologies they may tailor to fit some other violent or extremist impulse.

    Espionage and cyber-security risks

    There also seems to be a revival of the espionage and spying cultures last seen during the Cold War. There is already the first military case of espionage before the courts, and the SIS is aware of individuals on the margins of government being cultivated and offered financial and other incentives to provide sensitive information.

    The SIS says espionage operations by foreign intelligence agencies against New Zealand, both at home and abroad, are persistent, opportunistic and increasingly wide ranging.

    While the government remains the main target, corporations, research institutions and state contractors are now all potential sources of sensitive information. Because non-governmental agencies are often not prepared for such threats, they pose a significant security risk.

    Cybersecurity remains a particular concern, although the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) recorded 350 incidents in 2021-22, which was a decline from 404 incidents recorded in the previous 12-month period.

    On the other hand, a growing proportion of cyber incidents affecting major New Zealand institutions can be linked to state-sponsored actors. Of the 350 reported major incidents, 118 were connected to foreign states (34 percent of the total, up from 28 percent the previous year).

    NZSIS’s first unclassified threat assessment targets competition, public trust, technology https://t.co/5wetaOL1oA

    — RNZ News (@rnz_news) August 10, 2023

    Russia, Iran and China
    Although the SIS recorded that only a “small number” of foreign states engaged in deceptive, corruptive or coercive attempts to exert political or social influence, the potential for harm is “significant”.

    Some of the most insidious examples concern harassment of ethnic communities within New Zealand who speak out against the actions of a foreign government.

    The SIS identifies Russia, Iran and China as the three offenders. Iran was recorded as reporting on Iranian communities and dissident groups in New Zealand. In addition, the assessment says:

    Most notable is the continued targeting of New Zealand’s diverse ethnic Chinese communities. We see these activities carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China.

    Overall, the threat assessment makes for welcome – if at times unsettling – reading. Having such conversations in the open, rather than in whispers behind closed doors, demystifies aspects of national security.

    Most importantly, it gives greater credibility to those state agencies that must increase their transparency in order to build public trust and support for their unique roles within a working democracy.The Conversation

    Dr Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

    MPs confront Iran’s Ambassador to New Zealand over protest crackdowns https://t.co/Mtqr5OLetS

    — RNZ News (@rnz_news) August 3, 2023


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Nicaragua: Example to the World of How to Defend Sovereignty and Independence https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/11/nicaragua-example-to-the-world-of-how-to-defend-sovereignty-and-independence/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/11/nicaragua-example-to-the-world-of-how-to-defend-sovereignty-and-independence/#respond Fri, 11 Aug 2023 22:44:03 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=143035 (Photo Credit:  Lapaz Telesur)

    On June 27, 1986, the World Court condemned the United States for illegal war and aggression against Nicaragua and ordered the US to compensate Nicaragua for damages estimated to run to US$17 billion dollars, what today would be more than US$55 billion. On June 27 of this year, President Daniel Ortega demanded that the US fulfill its obligation. He stated:

    On June 27, 1986, the International Court of Justice condemned the US and directed it to compensate Nicaragua for all damages caused as a consequence of military activities against Nicaragua. In a situation of armed aggression such as that carried out by the US, no amount of reparations – neither economic nor moral – could compensate for the devastation of the country, the loss of human lives and the physical and psychological wounds of the Nicaraguan people. The Court decided that the United States had a legal obligation to make economic reparations to Nicaragua for all the damages caused.

    The President continued:

    The compensation due to Nicaragua remains unpaid… Instead of receiving compensation as is morally and legally due, Nicaragua continues to be the object of a new form of aggression, which consists of sanctions and an attempted coup d’état.

    In finishing, Ortega said that:

    Nicaragua takes this opportunity to recall that the judgments of the ICJ are final and of obligatory compliance, and therefore the United States has the obligation to comply with the reparations ordered by the ruling of June 27, 1986.

    In June the Sao Paulo Forum approved a resolution in support of Nicaragua’s demand for compliance with the 1986 ruling of the World Court. The Sao Paulo Forum is the premier forum of revolutionary organizations, movements and parties of Latin America and the Caribbean. The Sao Paulo Forum declared itself in support of Nicaragua’s demand that the US comply with the ICJ sentence, and compensate Nicaragua to the full extent of that historic ruling.

    The Ministerial Meeting of the Coordinating Bureau of the Non-Aligned Movement meeting in Azerbaijan in June issued a joint declaration in which the member countries expressed their support for Nicaragua’s request for US compliance and compensation for damages in accordance with the ruling. The statement highlights that “the persistent refusal of the United States to comply with the Judgment of the International Court of Justice issued 37 years ago, is a flagrant violation of international law and of the ruling of the highest court of justice in the world.”

    Nicaragua showed it will not bend to US coup attempts and destabilization when it tried and convicted Nicaraguan agents who participated in violent actions in an attempt to overthrow the government in 2018. Then on February 9, 2023, Nicaragua decided to deport 222 prisoners convicted of treason and other crimes to the US. “In accordance with the Law for the Defense of the Rights of the People, Independence, Sovereignty and Self-Determination … the immediate and effective deportation of 222 persons is ordered…The deportees were declared traitors and punished for different serious crimes (that would be serious crimes in any nation) and their citizenship rights are perpetually suspended.” [Note: The new law under which Nicaraguans can lose their citizenship because of treasonous acts is very similar to US Code 1481 under which a person can lose US citizenship by “committing any act of treason against, or attempting by force to overthrow, or bearing arms against, the United States, … by engaging in a conspiracy to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, if and when he is convicted thereof by a court martial or by a court of competent jurisdiction.]

    In another example of demanding respect for sovereignty, Nicaragua suspended the placet it had granted to Fernando Ponz as European Union ambassador. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Denis Moncada Colindres said in a statement:

    In view of the interfering and insolent communiqué of this day, which confirms the imperialist and colonialist positions of the European Union, this April 18, on the eve of the National Day of Peace, the sovereign and dignified government of the Republic of Nicaragua … has decided to suspend the placet that had been granted to Mr. Fernando Ponz as ambassador of that subjugating power. We reiterate to the neocolonialist gentlemen and women of the European Union our condemnation of all their historic genocide and we demand justice and reparation for these crimes against humanity and for their virulent, greedy and rapacious plundering of our wealth and cultures. In these circumstances and in the face of the permanent siege on the rights of our people to national sovereignty, we will not receive their representative.

    On January 24, at the VII Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean Countries (CELAC) held in Argentina, Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Denis Moncada rejected foreign intervention in any form, including aggressions, invasions, interferences, blockades, economic wars, offenses, threats, humiliations, occupations as well as sanctions, which are nothing more than “aggressions, all illegal, arbitrary and unilateral.” His message also called on the CELAC countries to resist and reject everything that endangers the future, “the luminous horizon of our peoples, where we do not allow any more plundering of our natural and cultural resources, and where the genocide imposed on us for centuries by the colonialist powers is not only denounced, but [our resistance] becomes … songs that demand peace.” He went on to say, “The world urgently needs justice and peace…respectful cooperation and solidarity. The world needs understanding, comprehension and affection. The better world that we all want to create urgently needs … the ability to live together”….

    Strategies for Development Despite Sanctions

    In 2018, the same year of the coup attempt, the US passed a first round of sanctions called the Nica Act. Then, under President Joe Biden, more sanctions were passed called “RENACER.” Currently, Senators Marco Rubio and Tim Kaine have introduced a new bill to reauthorize and amend the previous sanctions making them even harsher.

    All of these sanctions are illegal coercive measures and the US applies them not because Nicaragua has done something wrong, but exactly because Nicaragua is using the riches it produces for the social welfare of its people and not acting as a US colony. Sanctions tend to primarily affect economic growth and studies show they have the biggest effect on the poor and vulnerable.

    Nicaragua has developed three essential areas that make it resilient even in the face of this form of war: Nicaragua produces about 90% of the food that people eat; Nicaragua has increased renewable energy from 20% to 70% so every year it is less dependent on petroleum imports; and it has developed excellent infrastructure in health, education, roads and bridges, energy, water and sewage. And because of more benefits like free universal health and education, more affordable housing possibilities as well as more opportunities for youth and women, a very high percentage of the population approves of the government – currently nearly 83%.

    And Nicaragua is developing new relationships of respect with many other countries: In the first six months of 2023 Nicaragua received high level visits from China, Russia and Iran.

    The Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov, visited Nicaragua on April 19 and said that together with Nicaragua they will continue to work hand in hand against interference and intervention. “Thanks to the efforts of Daniel Ortega, the country remains stable,” he said. “I would like to wish all Nicaraguans peace, prosperity and stability; I am convinced that the bilateral relations between Russia and Nicaragua will facilitate this process.” Multipolarity is a process that cannot be stopped, but Westerners under the auspices of the US try to spread their hegemony in conflicts such as the one in Ukraine and will try to increase their influence in the region looking towards the Pacific, among others,” he said. Russia has helped Nicaragua develop vaccine production such as the influenza vaccine now produced locally.

    Cooperation with China began in December 2021 when Nicaragua recognized that there is only one China. Recently, on July 11 of this year, Nicaragua and China signed three agreements: China will donate 1,481 metric tons of wheat, 2,595 metric tons of urea, and 500 buses to Nicaragua. President Ortega thanked the President of China, Xi Jinping, for this cooperation that is provided in solidarity and unconditionally through the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) for the benefit of Nicaraguan families. Lou Zhaohui, the President of CIDCA, said China will continue to support the efforts of Nicaragua to meet its goals of poverty reduction and human development. And as of May, Nicaragua can export seafood, beef, and textiles to China free of tariffs.

    On February 1, 2023, Nicaragua hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Dr. Hossein Amir-Abdollahián. Then, on June 13 and 14, Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi visited Nicaragua to deepen relations and begin cooperation in the areas of science and technology. Raisi said that the United States wanted to paralyze its people through threats and sanctions; however, Iran was not paralyzed in its path and has turned threats and sanctions into opportunities and through those opportunities it has achieved great progress in many areas. “Although the enemy wants to discourage the revolutionary peoples, the peoples have to know that the new world order is being formed in favor of the resistance of the people and against imperialist interests,” Raisi stated.

    President Daniel Ortega Emphasizes the Importance of Peace

     This year, April 19 was declared the National Day of Peace. On this day in 2018, at the beginning of the attempted coup, the first three people were killed by US-backed agents, including a policeman, a young Sandinista and a passer-by.

    In his speech on April 19 President Ortega said:

    I want to remind all Nicaraguans to think for a moment what Nicaragua was like five years ago. Could you walk on these streets; could you live in peace in your homes? Everyone was terrified. And the deaths every day; those who were killed were blamed on the government, on the police, and the police were in their barracks, which was the decision we had taken.

    President Ortega frequently emphasizes the importance of peace and how essential peace is to end poverty and for the development of all sectors of the country. On the 40th anniversary of the revolution in 2019, the president asked “What is the way to be able to work, study, receive health care, build schools, roads, show solidarity to get our Nicaraguan brothers and sisters who are still in these conditions out of poverty and extreme poverty? What is the fundamental condition?” Everyone answered with one voice that it is peace. He affirmed that a community needs peace to work and to live.

    Residents of Leon march for peace carrying the blue and white flags of Nicaragua and the red and black flags of the FSLN. (Photo Credit:  Nicaraguan photographer, Jairo Cajina)

    On January 9 of this year, at the swearing in the of National Assembly, President Ortega pointed out that:

    No matter how well-intentioned a government may be, if there is no peace, social programs cannot go forward. Without peace, schools, roads, hospitals simply cannot be built. We already know how terrible war is, the war that Nicaragua has lived through, the attempted coups that Nicaragua has lived through, how much blood, how much pain caused by terrorists, how much damage to the economy. But in the midst of the coup d’état, we were still inaugurating infrastructure and, after security and peace were restored for all Nicaraguans, then came this new push, because the country had been acting with enormous strength from 2007 until the coup attempt.

    Nicaragua does all it can to have peace, independence and sovereignty in order to advance well-being for its population. Nicaragua is a revolution that works!


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Nan McCurdy.

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    War with Iran? U.S. Deploys Marines to Guard Commercial Ships in the Persian Gulf https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/08/war-with-iran-u-s-deploys-marines-to-guard-commercial-ships-in-the-persian-gulf/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/08/war-with-iran-u-s-deploys-marines-to-guard-commercial-ships-in-the-persian-gulf/#respond Tue, 08 Aug 2023 15:00:59 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=b2fde8221aff20b965891546bb34fc6a
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Is Biden Risking War with Iran as U.S. Deploys Marines to Guard Commercial Ships in the Persian Gulf? https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/08/is-biden-risking-war-with-iran-as-u-s-deploys-marines-to-guard-commercial-ships-in-the-persian-gulf/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/08/08/is-biden-risking-war-with-iran-as-u-s-deploys-marines-to-guard-commercial-ships-in-the-persian-gulf/#respond Tue, 08 Aug 2023 12:11:37 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=956d4dff06f4297555c1bf4ce5fc6d39 Seg1 marines 2

    In an escalation of tensions, the Biden administration has deployed thousands of U.S. Marines and sailors to the Middle East in order to deter Iran from seizing oil tankers and other commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz. The move comes after the Navy said Iran tried to seize two commercial oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last month, after seizing dozens more since 2019. Iran responded by equipping its Navy with drones and missiles. “It’s really baffling to see why we’re taking such immense risks that could bring the U.S. into war for achieving things that are of little value when it comes to peace and stability in the region or U.S. interests in the region,” says Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, who says the Biden administration is risking a new war for stronger relations with Saudi Arabia. He argues the Biden administration has made critical mistakes in its relations with Iran by continuing Trump administration-era maximum-pressure sanctions.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    Unveiling the Alliance Between Iran and Palestine  https://www.radiofree.org/2023/07/28/unveiling-the-alliance-between-iran-and-palestine/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/07/28/unveiling-the-alliance-between-iran-and-palestine/#respond Fri, 28 Jul 2023 05:50:20 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=290171

    Photograph Source: Michael Künne, PRESSCOV – CC BY-SA 3.0

    “It is justice that the ordering of society is centered.”                

    –  Aristotle

    Iranians and Palestinians come from dissimilar cultural and historical landscapes. Yet, the Islamic Republic of Iran has embraced and championed the Palestinian cause. The two have been drawn together by a shared narrative—one of intrusion, domination and duplicity by foreign powers.  

    Although Iran in a former incarnation was an empire, Iranians and Palestinians have both known the heavy hand of British and American imperiums.  And both have resisted and survived the arrogance, indignity and humiliation imposed on them by those foreign powers.  

    Iran experienced foreign occupation first at the hands of the British after the Second World War and later by the Americans after the CIA-British MI6 overthrow of the democratic government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953.  The Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, restored to the throne by the United States, governed cruelly for 26 years, subordinating Iranian interests to those of the United States.  Washington’s support for his repressive rule set off the bitter anti-American revolution of 1978-79 and led to the reinvention of Iran as an Islamic Republic.    

    In Palestine, Britain’s imperial design after World War I opened the door to the ongoing Palestinian Nakba (Arabic for catastrophe).  Zionism’s colonizing project begun in 1917 based on Britain’s promise of support for the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, ushered in the state of Israel in 1948.   Efforts to gain demographic control, to dispossess and ethnically cleanse the Palestinian people continues unabated by the last remaining colonial power, Israel. 

    The anti-imperialist ideology of the revolution affirmed the Islamic Republic’s identification with the Palestinian cause.  In February 1979, Palestinian Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat was welcomed in Tehran as the first foreign “head of state.” The former Israeli diplomatic mission in Tehran was turned over to the Palestinians, and the road in front of the mission was renamed Palestine Avenue.  Chairman Arafat was invited to officially inaugurate the new diplomatic legation.  During the ceremony, revolutionary leader, the  Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, told Arafat that Iran’s revolution would be incomplete until the Palestinians had won their freedom.  That official pronouncement linked the Iranian Revolution to the struggle of the Palestinians. 

    The culture of resistance, which has come to define the Islamic Republic and its commitment to Palestine, was central to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, ratified on 3 December 1979.  In foreign policy, for example, the constitution asserts that the government, “considers the attainment of independence, freedom, and rule of justice and truth to be the right of all people of the world….”

    Recognizing that the United States has committed itself financially and militarily to the continued supremacy of Israel, the Islamic Republic has been equally determined to aid Palestinians in their resistance to Israeli domination.  For that, and its opposition to U.S-Israeli expansion, Iran has been in the crosshairs of every U.S. president since its history shifted from monarchy to an Islamic Republic.  

    Iran’s advocacy for Palestinian self-determination has been viewed by some of its critics as interference.  Inside Iran the concern is that the country may become more Palestinian than Palestinians.   Nearly all of Iran’s leaders, however, claim a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations and have indicated that Tehran would accept any decision embraced by the Palestinian majority. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has also stated that Palestine’s fate should be determined by the Palestinian people.  “The initiative to self-determination is today in the hands of the Palestinian fighters,” so said President Ebrahim Raisi in his 14 April 2023 address to the people of Gaza on the occasion of al-Quds Day (Jerusalem Day); the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan.   

    Iran and Palestine know that alliances are vital to the survival of each.  They recognize that Israel, with U.S. backing, is the most powerful and dangerous force in the neighborhood.  Together the Islamic Republic and its Palestinian allies— Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine— and in Lebanon, Hezbollah, have stood against U.S.-Israeli hegemonic regional ambitions.  According to a 2020 U.S. State Department report, Iran provides $100 million a year to Palestinian groups. 

    For that, Washington has put Tehran on notice that it will pay a high price for allying with the Palestinians.  Despite the political and economic costs and Washington’s ongoing efforts at regime change, Iran remains undaunted.  

    Washington’s harassment of Iran, however, has known no bounds. Support for Iraq in its war with Iran (1980-88), crippling economic sanctions, sabotage operations, assassinations of Iranian leaders and scientists, disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, military threats and fomenting terrorist attacks inside Iran are among the bullying tactics Iranians have endured.                          

    The determination to coerce Iran into submission was particularly evident during the presidency of George W. Bush (2001-2009).  In 2003, while planning for the invasion of Iraq, a frequent refrain among Bush administration officials was “Today Baghdad, tomorrow Damascus, and then on to Tehran.”  Although Bush’s war and future goals did not go as planned, he launched an unprecedented financial war against Iran, implementing a list of strategies to drive it out of the global economy.  

    The “maximum pressure” campaign of former President Donald Trump (2017-2021), and continued by the Biden administration, has further severed Iran’s financial sector from the global economy, reduced its global trade and diminished its foreign currency reserves.  With the sharp depreciation of the Iranian currency, the rial, an overall inflation rate of 51 percent and food inflation at 70 percent, nearly 60 percent of the total population of 87.2 million are experiencing poverty.

    In a 2019 summary, Human Rights Watch noted that U.S. officials, on several occasions, have indicated that U.S. sanctions are causing intentional suffering—what Human Rights Watch refers to as collective punishment—to compel Iranians to demand governmental change.

    To further its predatory expansionist plans in Palestine and the region, Israel has left no stone unturned to block conciliation between Washington and Tehran. Its leaders have used the Iran “threat” narrative to make detente difficult.  Economic sanctions, the consequence of decades of Israeli demonization of Iran, have also made it increasingly difficult for Tehran to continue funding its allies.  

    The 2015 nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, would have given Iran a modicum of economic stability and improved relations with the United States.  Also, it would have made economic aid to Palestinians easier.  Under Israeli pressure, Trump abrogated the nuclear pact in 2018 and imposed 1500 additional economic sanctions.   

    In addition to sanctions, the United States has increased its military threat against Iran.  Forty-five U.S. military bases encircle the country, with U.S. troops deployed near Iran in Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Syria.  

    U.S. Central Command, the largest military coalition in the world, has listed deterring Iran its number one priority.  In 2023, the United States and Israel began a new series of extensive war games, with Iran as their primary target. 

    Regime change has continued to be the preferred U.S. course of action toward Iran, further sowing insecurity and angst among Iranians.  Ongoing threats, attacks and destabilizing activities have also made Iran extremely watchful internally and externally.   Their concern has forced the country’s leaders to further build-up its security and defense systems.  

    A primary objective of the September 2020 U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords—normalizing relations among the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Israel—has been to taunt and ride roughshod over Iran.  Another less noted objective has been to undermine Tehran’s resolve and ability to support the Palestinians.  

    The Arab signatories made their betrayal of the Palestinians and their cause official when they agreed to the accords.   The agreement has confirmed, as Netanyahu brazenly stated, that Israel did not need to resolve the Palestinian issue in order to normalize relations with Arab states.  Iran, a non-Arab state, has stood alone.   

    Although some Arab leaders have offered financial assistance, most subordinated the Palestinian cause to their own domestic and regional interests.  Cooperation between Israeli and Arab autocrats is not new.  Oman and Qatar, for example, have maintained covert relations with Israel for decades. And Egypt—the flagship of the Arab world—in collaboration with Israel, has imposed a crippling 15-year blockade of Gaza, causing extreme hardship for more than 2 million Palestinians trapped in the densely-populated 139-square mile strip.  

    According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, aid to Palestinians from 1994 to 2020, amounted to more than $40 billion, with close to 77 percent of that amount provided by non-Arab donors.  Very little of that amount has gone to the people of Palestine, while 40 percent has ended up in the coffers of the Palestinian Authority (PA).  

    It is worth noting that the PA has been a collaborating force with Israel since 1994; carrying out Israel’s colonial system of economic control of the occupied territories and maintaining security, not for Palestinians, but for Jewish colonial “settlers.”  In June 2023, during a closed session of a Knesset committee,  Prime Minister  Netanyahu admitted as much, saying:  “Israel needs the Palestinian Authority….it does our job for us.”  Adding that, Israel also needs to crush Palestinian aspirations for an independent state.  

    The political realities of the region dictate the urgency of the Iran-Palestine entente.  For now, their strategic partnership is the only check on the aggressive actions and hegemonic policies of Washington and Tel Aviv.

    For Palestinians, the Constitution of the Islamic Republic is a direct expression and confirmation of their alliance:  “The Islamic Republic of Iran… considers the attainment of independence, freedom, and rule of justice and truth to be the right of all people of the world. Accordingly, while scrupulously refraining from all forms of interference in the internal affairs of other nations, it supports the just struggles of the mustad’affun [oppressed] against the mustakbirun [oppressors] in every corner of the globe.”


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by M. Reza Behnam.

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    The international community must support women and girls in #Iran #Shorts https://www.radiofree.org/2023/07/18/the-international-community-must-support-womenand-girls-in-iran-shorts/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/07/18/the-international-community-must-support-womenand-girls-in-iran-shorts/#respond Tue, 18 Jul 2023 09:42:59 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=ce931e185de5579be3c88d3504f0cff0
    This content originally appeared on Amnesty International and was authored by Amnesty International.

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    Iran Joins Shanghai Cooperation Organization https://www.radiofree.org/2023/07/08/iran-joins-shanghai-cooperation-organization/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/07/08/iran-joins-shanghai-cooperation-organization/#respond Sat, 08 Jul 2023 19:41:03 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=141968 This week’s News on China.

    • SCO’s 23rd Summit
    • Measures to protect the chip industry
    • Over-reliance on seed imports
    • Fewer Chinese students in the US


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Dongsheng News.

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    ‘Mental torture’: Protesters seek freedom for detained Iran refugee https://www.radiofree.org/2023/06/13/mental-torture-protesters-seek-freedom-for-detained-iran-refugee/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/06/13/mental-torture-protesters-seek-freedom-for-detained-iran-refugee/#respond Tue, 13 Jun 2023 07:43:41 +0000 https://asiapacificreport.nz/?p=89702 By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist, and Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor

    As Australian protesters gathered outside the Brisbane detention centre calling for the freedom of a Nauru refugee, the man pleaded with authorities to release him.

    Hamid has been held in a hotel room and then the detention centre for months.

    “They want to kill me gradually with mental torture,” he said.

    • LISTEN TO RNZ PACIFIC WAVES: The refugee audio feature
    • Other Nauru refugee reports

    “New Zealand government, please save me from the cruel and inhuman clutches of Australian politicians,” Hamid, an Iranian who was held on Nauru for almost a decade, told RNZ Pacific.

    He is one of hundreds of refugees who had sought asylum in Australia but was detained offshore.

    He was brought to Australia in February 2023 for medical treatment and then kept in a hotel room in Brisbane.

    “They are actually cruel. And they are actually killing me by mental torture,” Hamid said.

    Other refugees released
    Other refugees brought to Australia have been released from hotel detention within a week or two but not Hamid, who said he had been confined for weeks on end.

    “And they didn’t release me and they released everyone in front of my eyes. So what is this after 10 years? After 10 years, they are putting me in a detention centre with a lot of criminal people. What is this? It’s torture!” Hamid said.

    He was held first in the Meriton Hotel, in Brisbane, and on June 7 he was transferred to the Brisbane detention centre.

    Around 50 people held a protest at Brisbane's immigration detention centre, BITA ( Brisbane Immigration Transit Accommodation), yesterday Sunday, June 11 2023.
    A protester at Brisbane’s immigration detention centre, BITA ( Brisbane Immigration Transit Accommodation), on Sunday . . .  “Other refugees brought to Australia have been released from hotel detention within a week.” Image: Ian Rintoul/RNZ Pacific

    “I’m not a criminal . . . I didn’t come to Australia illegally.

    “But they keep me in detention,” Hamid said.

    All meals were eaten in his room, and he was sometimes taken to the BITA Detention Centre for one hour’s exercise a day.

    RNZ Pacific decided not to interview him in his fragile state while he was in isolation, but since he was moved to detention where he can exercise and walk around the compound, he wanted to speak out about his treatment.

    Wish to go to NZ
    “I’m sure the New Zealand government and people are lovely. And this is my wish. As soon as possible, go to New Zealand. And please do my process as soon as possible. Thank you so much,” Hamid said.

    He begged the New Zealand government to speed up the immigration process which he has applied for under the AUS/NZ Agreement.

    “I have to support my family — my wife and youngest daughter are in Iran. And I have to support them. They are my priority. My first priority in my life is to support them. And as they put me here I cannot,” Hamid said.

    Around 50 people held a protest at Brisbane's immigration detention centre, BITA ( Brisbane Immigration Transit Accommodation), yesterday Sunday, June 11 2023.
    Protesters at Brisbane’s immigration detention centre, BITA ( Brisbane Immigration Transit Accommodation), on Sunday . . . Hamid was promised he would be released from detention in Australia. Image: Ian Rintoul/RNZ Pacific

    Like others brought from Nauru, he was promised he would be released from detention in Australia, and was even asked whether he wanted to be released on a bridging visa or on a community detention order.

    He has been awaiting news from the New Zealand government as to whether or not he will be accepted for the freedom he has waited almost a decade for.

    Free Hamid rally
    For the last several months, the Australian Labor government has been transferring the remaining refugees and asylum seekers on Nauru to Australia, the Refugee Action Coalition said in a statement.

    In December last year there were 72 people held offshore by Australia in Nauru. As of last week, 13 refugees were left but it is understood that another transfer was to be completed at the weekend.

    Last Sunday, a “Free Hamid” rally was held outside the detention centre.

    Hamid’s son, Arman, was released from hotel detention in Victoria in 2022 and spoke at the rally.

    Ian Rintoul, spokesperson for the Refugee Action Coalition, said the Labor government has no more excuses.

    “It’s way beyond time that Hamid was freed from detention and reunited with his son,” Rintoul said.

    ‘Strong progress’ made on NZ resettlement deal
    Australia’s Department of Home Affairs (DFAT) told RNZ Pacific in a statement that while it does not comment on individual cases, it is committed to an enduring regional processing capability in Nauru as a key pillar of “Operation Sovereign Borders’.

    “The enduring capability ensures regional processing arrangements remain ready to receive and process any new unauthorised maritime arrivals, future-proofing Australia’s response to maritime people smuggling,” the statement said.

    DFAT said Australia was focused on supporting the Nauru government to resolve the regional processing caseload, and that “strong progress” had been made on the New Zealand resettlement arrangement.

    “I’m so tired of the Australian government, just the government, you know, not the people,” Hamid said.

    Immigration New Zealand has told RNZ Pacific it is working as fast as it could to get refugees to New Zealand under the AUS/NZ deal which aims to settle up to 150 refugees each year for three years.

    Year one ends this month, on June 30.

    Hamid hopes to be one of those included in this year’s intake.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Two banners and candles at the gates of a refugee detention centre during a candlelight vigil. Asanka Brendon Ratnayake / Anadolu Agency
    Two banners and candles at the gates of a refugee detention centre during a candlelight vigil in Brisbane. Asanka Brendon Ratnayake/Anadolu Agency/AFP/RNZ Pacific


    This content originally appeared on Asia Pacific Report and was authored by APR editor.

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    Leaked Report: “CIA Does Not Know” if Israel Plans to Bomb Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/24/leaked-report-cia-does-not-know-if-israel-plans-to-bomb-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/24/leaked-report-cia-does-not-know-if-israel-plans-to-bomb-iran/#respond Wed, 24 May 2023 17:52:23 +0000 https://production.public.theintercept.cloud/?p=429260

    Whether Israel’s escalating threats of war with Iran over its nuclear program are saber-rattling or something more serious is a mystery even to the CIA, according to a portion of a top-secret intelligence report leaked on the platform Discord earlier this year. The uncertainty about the intentions of one of the U.S.’s closest allies calls into question the basis of the “ironclad” support for Israel publicly espoused by the Biden administration.

    The report — which was first covered by the Israeli channel i24 News and subsequently posted by DDoSecrets, a group that publishes leaked documents — reveals an undisclosed military exercise conducted by Israel. “On 20 February, Israel conducted a large-scale air exercise,” the intelligence report, produced by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on February 23, states. The exercise, it says, was “probably to simulate a strike on Iran’s nuclear program and possibly to demonstrate Jerusalem’s resolve to act against Tehran.” There have been several joint U.S.-Israeli military exercises in recent months, including one proudly billed by the Pentagon as the largest “in history.” 

    “CIA does not know Israel’s near term plans and intentions,” the report adds, speculating that “Netanyahu probably calculates Israel will need to strike Iran to deter its nuclear program and faces a declining military capability to set back Iran’s enrichment program.”

    That the U.S.’s premier intelligence service indicated it had no idea how seriously to take Israel’s increasingly bombastic threats to Tehran means that, in all likelihood, neither does the White House. But despite this lack of clarity, Biden has not opposed a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran — and his national security adviser recently hinted at blessing it. 

    “We have made clear to Iran that it can never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon,” Jake Sullivan said in a speech earlier this month, reiterating the administration’s oft-repeated line. The rhetoric reflects what military planners call “strategic ambiguity,” a policy of intentional uncertainty in order to deter an adversary — in this case, around how far the U.S. might go to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. But Sullivan went a step further, adding, “As President Biden has repeatedly reaffirmed, he will take the actions that are necessary to stand by this statement, including by recognizing Israel’s freedom of action.” 

    Sullivan’s statement represents the strongest signal yet that the administration would not oppose unilateral action by Israel. The rhetoric has also been echoed by other administration officials. In February, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Tom Nides, said that “Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with [Iran] and we’ve got their back.” 

    “I believe the administration is playing with fire with this kind of rhetoric and with the joint military planning.”

    “In the current context this constitutes glibness,” said Paul Pillar, a retired national intelligence officer for the near east, of Sullivan’s statement. Pillar is now a senior fellow at Georgetown’s Center for Security Studies. “I believe the administration is playing with fire with this kind of rhetoric and with the joint military planning.” Last week, Axios reported that the U.S. recently proposed cooperating with Israel on joint military planning around Iran but denied they would plan to strike Iran’s nuclear program.

    “Biden has dangerously shifted America’s policy on Israeli military action against Iran,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told The Intercept. “Previous administrations made it crystal clear to Israel – including publicly – that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program would be destabilizing, would not prevent a nuclear Iran and would likely drag the US into a war it could do well without.

    “Obama’s clear opposition played a crucial role in the internal deliberations of the Israeli cabinet in 2010 and 2011 when Israel was on the verge of starting war,” Parsi pointed out. In 2009, after then-Vice President Biden said “Israel can determine for itself … what they decide to do relative to Iran,” Obama clarified that his administration was “absolutely not” giving Israel a green light to attack Iran.

    Israel’s own military officials concede that an attack on Iran would likely metastasize into a broader regional war. Earlier this month, retired Israel Defense Forces Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi reportedly said that “Israel might have to deal with the Iranian nuclear program,” adding that “this will mean an Israeli attack on Iran which will probably result in a regional war.”

    In January, just weeks before Israel’s secret exercise referenced in the intelligence report, the U.S. and Israel conducted what the Defense Department touted as their largest joint military exercise in history. Called Juniper Oak, the exercise involved “electronic attack, suppression of enemy air defenses, strike coordination and reconnaissance,” which experts said “are exactly what the U.S. and Israel would need to conduct a successful kinetic attack on Iran’s nuclear program.” 

    The unprecedented exercise was made possible by a little-noticed order by President Donald Trump just days before Biden’s inauguration. Using his authority as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Trump ordered Israel be moved from European Command’s area of responsibility, where it had been located since 1983 to avoid friction with its Middle East neighbors, to that of Central Command, the Pentagon’s Middle East combatant command. 

    Under Biden, CENTCOM, whose area of responsibility includes Iran, has continued to coordinate closely with Israel. In March, Biden’s CENTCOM chief, Gen. Michael Kurilla, said in Senate testimony that the decision to move Israel from EUCOM to CENTCOM “immediately and profoundly altered the nature and texture of many of CENTCOM’s partnerships,” adding that “CENTCOM today readily partners with Arab militaries and the Israel Defense Force alike.”

    “In fact, the inclusion of Israel presents many collaborative and constructive security opportunities,” Kurilla said. “Our partners of four decades largely see the same threats and have common cause with Israel Defense Forces and the Arab militaries in defending against Iran’s most destabilizing activities.”

    Put simply, for the first time, the U.S. and both its Arab and Israeli allies are structurally aligned against a common foe: Iran.

    At the same hearing, Sen. Tom Cotton, who had advocated for the relocation of Israel to CENTCOM weeks before Trump gave the order, raised the possibility of training Israeli pilots in the use of mid-air refuel aircraft. The lack of such aircraft, which allow fighter jets to travel long distances, is a key impediment to Israel’s ability to reach Iranian nuclear facilities.

    “One of the opportunities I see is having Israeli Air Force personnel training alongside American personnel on KC 46 tankers, which we expect to provide them in future,” Cotton said. Kurilla, for his part, demurred, replying that training might be better “when they get closer to getting their aircraft … so they can retain that training and go right into the execution of operating them.”

    Though Biden campaigned on reinstating the Iran nuclear deal — also called JCPOA, which Obama established and Trump pulled out of — the deal is all but dead. 

    “With Iran, any concerns about a nuclear program have sometimes been overwhelmed by a desire — based on partisanship in the U.S. and heavily influenced by the government of Israel — to isolate Iran and not do any business or negotiations with it at all,” Pillar told The Intercept. “Hence you had Trump’s reneging on the JCPOA agreement in 2018, with a direct result of that reneging being that there is now far more reason to be worried about a possible Iranian nuclear weapon than there was when the JCPOA was still in effect.”

    Should Iran acquire a nuclear weapon, it would likely trigger a dangerous regional arms race. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has made clear that Riyadh would “follow suit as soon as possible” with its own atomic bomb should Tehran obtain one. 

    But one key fact is often left out of discussions about Iran and the bomb: There’s no evidence that it’s actually pursuing one.

    As the Pentagon’s most recent Nuclear Posture Review plainly states, “Iran does not today possess a nuclear weapon and we currently believe it is not pursuing one.” More recently, CIA Director William Burns reiterated that point in an interview with CBS in February. “To the best of our knowledge,” Burns said, “we don’t believe that the Supreme Leader in Iran has yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program that we judge that they suspended or stopped at the end of 2003.”

    Iran’s policy could, of course, change. And tensions are rising in large part because of the U.S.’s recent posturing. For example, following the Juniper Oak exercise, Iran responded with its own military exercises, which Iranian military commander Maj. Gen. Gholam-Ali Rashid said they consider a “half war” and even a “war before war.”

    In April, CENTCOM announced the deployment of a submarine armed with guided missiles in the Mediterranean Sea. This was likely a message directed at Iran, which quickly responded by accusing the U.S. of “warmongering.” 

    Earlier, in October, CENTCOM issued an extraordinary press release featuring Kurilla, the CENTCOM chief, aboard a submarine armed with ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the Arabian Sea — another message for Iran.

    On May 9, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder announced that the military would be increasing its patrols in the Strait of Hormuz, through which many Iranian vessels travel. In his remarks, Ryder made particular mention of the P-8 Poseidon aircraft and the role it would play in bolstering maritime surveillance of the area.

    The same aircraft made international news in 2019, when Iran disclosed that it almost downed a P-8 carrying U.S. service members that it claimed had entered its airspace, opting instead to shoot down a nearby drone. The U.S. military scrambled jets to strike Iran in retaliation, only to be called off by Trump 10 minutes before the attack when a general told him that the strikes would probably kill 150 people. The strikes would not, Trump said, have been “proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone.”

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    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Ken Klippenstein.

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    Why are Iran and China Executing Thousands? https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/19/why-are-iran-and-china-executing-thousands/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/19/why-are-iran-and-china-executing-thousands/#respond Fri, 19 May 2023 05:25:47 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=283279 Recorded executions in 2022 reached the highest figure in five years, as the Middle East and North Africa’s most notorious executioners carried out killing sprees, Amnesty International said Tuesday as it released its annual review of the death penalty. “Countries in the Middle East and North Africa region violated international law as they ramped up More

    The post Why are Iran and China Executing Thousands? appeared first on CounterPunch.org.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Chloe Atkinson.

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    In Iran, over 60 executions have taken place in less than 2 weeks #shorts https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/17/in-iran-over-60-executions-have-taken-place-in-less-than-2-weeks-shorts/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/17/in-iran-over-60-executions-have-taken-place-in-less-than-2-weeks-shorts/#respond Wed, 17 May 2023 18:00:23 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=ab366ff7bfd993cc425869f579512cb8
    This content originally appeared on Human Rights Watch and was authored by Human Rights Watch.

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    Executions In Iran Drive Global Death-Penalty Spike https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/16/executions-in-iran-drive-global-death-penalty-spike/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/16/executions-in-iran-drive-global-death-penalty-spike/#respond Tue, 16 May 2023 07:50:01 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=42c33b69272f8eed00645591bf18376a
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Iranian radio journalist Sajjad Shahrabi arrested, transferred to prison https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/08/iranian-radio-journalist-sajjad-shahrabi-arrested-transferred-to-prison/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/08/iranian-radio-journalist-sajjad-shahrabi-arrested-transferred-to-prison/#respond Mon, 08 May 2023 21:02:57 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=285596 Washington, D.C., May 8, 2023—Iranian authorities should immediately release radio journalist Sajjad Shahrabi and drop any charges against him, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Monday.

    On May 3, security forces arrested Shahrabi, a reporter and radio host for the state-owned outlet Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), after raiding his father’s house in the capital, Tehran, and confiscating his and his family’s personal and electronic items, including the journalist’s computer and notebook, according to news reports.

    Shahrabi is currently detained in Tehran’s Evin Prison. CPJ was unable to determine why he was arrested or whether he had been formally charged.

    “Iranian authorities must free journalist Sajjad Shahrabi immediately and unconditionally and cease the practice of arbitrarily locking up members of the press,” said CPJ Program Director Carlos Martinez de la Serna, in New York. “Shahrabi’s detention shows, shamefully, that authorities do not find it necessary to disclose even a minimum of details about why a reporter has been arrested.”

    He also hosts a weekly satirical sports program called “Toop/ball” for the state-run Radiojavan.ir.

    Since mid-April, Iran authorities have arrested at least three other journalists. CPJ emailed Iran’s mission to the United Nations for comment but did not receive any reply.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Committee to Protect Journalists.

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    Ban on Property Sales to Citizens of China, Iran, and Others Is Cruising Through Texas Legislature https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/05/ban-on-property-sales-to-citizens-of-china-iran-and-others-is-cruising-through-texas-legislature/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/05/ban-on-property-sales-to-citizens-of-china-iran-and-others-is-cruising-through-texas-legislature/#respond Fri, 05 May 2023 09:00:56 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=427098

    Last week, the Texas Senate passed a bill putting restrictions on land purchases by citizens of China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, raising alarms among civil liberties advocates who fear it is the first step toward legally enshrining discrimination based on national origin in the state.

    The bill, Senate Bill 147, would ban the purchase of “real property” by citizens from China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, even if they are in the country legally on certain visas. The bill defines “real property” as “agricultural land, an improvement located on agricultural land, a mine or quarry, a mineral in place, or a standing timber.” Currently awaiting review by the Texas House of Representatives, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has publicly vowed that he will sign it into law if it reaches his desk.

    “Discrimination against certain groups has often been justified by invoking national security concerns. This bill and others like it echo this shameful history.”

    “The bill perpetuates anti-immigrant bias and racism by unconstitutionally encouraging discrimination on the basis of immigration or citizenship status and national origin,” said Azadeh Shahshahani, legal and advocacy director for the civil rights group Project South. “Discrimination against certain groups has often been justified by invoking national security concerns. This bill and others like it echo this shameful history.”

    The current iteration of the bill, which has gone through multiple revisions, is a watered-down version of a far more draconian proposal that would have completely banned all property sales, including home purchases, to citizens and dual nationals of the four targeted countries.

    The announcement of the original measure last year triggered widespread protests by Chinese and Iranian American activist groups in Texas. In response to the pressure, the bill was narrowed to focus on purchases of farmland by individuals deemed to be foreign citizens but created exemptions for citizens and permanent residents of the U.S.

    Civil liberties groups say that the changes do not go far enough and are asking for the measure to be killed in its entirety. Even with the changes, these groups say that it will contribute to a climate of fear and suspicion targeting immigrant groups.

    “The original text of this bill released in November was its most xenophobic and racist version, and its announcement triggered a lot of fear and panic in the community,” said Lily Trieu, executive director of the advocacy group Asian Texans for Justice. “In February, the author came back and amended the bill to address some concerns, though still not enough to make it good policy.”

    She added, “This bill continues to conflate individuals with the governments of their countries of origin, even though many people in the United States who hold foreign citizenship are here because they were opposed to those governments.”

    The bill was first introduced by Republican state Sen. Lois Kolkhorst last year. While Kolkhorst attempted to roll back extreme measures, activists say that a Pandora’s box has already been opened by the proposed legislation. (Kolkhorst did not respond to a request for comment.)

    A copycat bill was introduced last month targeting citizens from the same four countries and would ban them from attending public universities in the state if passed.

    “The rhetoric that people from these countries pose a danger and should be unwelcome is already out there,” said Trieu. “People are already using this bill to discriminate against people from these four countries.”

    Though the bill in Texas has faced headwinds from activist groups, a similar measure targeting the same four countries, as well as citizens of Cuba, Venezuela, and Syria, is also being pushed ahead in Florida by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

    The introduction of S.B. 147 has hit Iranian American communities in the state particularly hard. Many Iranian Americans are still feeling the lingering effects of Trump-era suppression of their civil liberties, most notoriously the so-called Muslim ban that targeted Iranians and citizens of several other Muslim-majority countries for exclusion from entry to the U.S.

    The ban became a signature part of President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant governing platform. The list of seven countries that were subject to the ban was originally taken from a previous visa-waiver exclusion list built under President Barack Obama’s administration that targeted these states as “countries of concern.”

    From there, it was a simple matter of escalation for Trump to take the list and use it to exclude citizens of those countries from entering the U.S. entirely. Iranian American activist groups say that they fear the bill from the Texas Senate could lead to a similar slippery slope, where the precedent of a ban on large farmland purchases could be used as a means to introduce discriminatory restrictions on other rights they hold in the U.S.

    “This bill looks like 21st century version of the Alien Land Laws that targeted Asian immigrants in the 19th century and should be rejected as unconstitutional by legislatures,” said Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council. “The Iranian American community has already had this experience where a measure that may seem a little more reasonable at first is then used as justification for far more extreme actions targeting people based on their national origin.”

    The original impetus for the bill was concern over plans by a Chinese firm to buy land to build a wind farm in Texas, portions of which would have been near a U.S. military air base. Although U.S. officials who reviewed concerns about the purchase determined that it would not pose a security threat, the firm, controlled by a Chinese billionaire named Sun Guangxin, was forced to sell its interest in the project to a Spanish company.

    Last month, a coalition of human rights groups issued a letter to Abbott, the Texas governor, calling on him not to sign the bill, arguing that it would contribute to a climate of intolerance and fear in the state.

    “We are deeply concerned,” the letter said, “that Asian, Iranian, Russian, and other communities are being singled out and denied the ability to do what every other similarly situated individual in America has the right to do: build a life and put down roots in the place that they call home.”


    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Murtaza Hussain.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/05/ban-on-property-sales-to-citizens-of-china-iran-and-others-is-cruising-through-texas-legislature/feed/ 0 392746
    Ban on Property Sales to Citizens of China, Iran, and Others Is Cruising Through Texas Legislature https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/05/ban-on-property-sales-to-citizens-of-china-iran-and-others-is-cruising-through-texas-legislature/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/05/ban-on-property-sales-to-citizens-of-china-iran-and-others-is-cruising-through-texas-legislature/#respond Fri, 05 May 2023 09:00:56 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=427098

    Last week, the Texas Senate passed a bill putting restrictions on land purchases by citizens of China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, raising alarms among civil liberties advocates who fear it is the first step toward legally enshrining discrimination based on national origin in the state.

    The bill, Senate Bill 147, would ban the purchase of “real property” by citizens from China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, even if they are in the country legally on certain visas. The bill defines “real property” as “agricultural land, an improvement located on agricultural land, a mine or quarry, a mineral in place, or a standing timber.” Currently awaiting review by the Texas House of Representatives, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has publicly vowed that he will sign it into law if it reaches his desk.

    “Discrimination against certain groups has often been justified by invoking national security concerns. This bill and others like it echo this shameful history.”

    “The bill perpetuates anti-immigrant bias and racism by unconstitutionally encouraging discrimination on the basis of immigration or citizenship status and national origin,” said Azadeh Shahshahani, legal and advocacy director for the civil rights group Project South. “Discrimination against certain groups has often been justified by invoking national security concerns. This bill and others like it echo this shameful history.”

    The current iteration of the bill, which has gone through multiple revisions, is a watered-down version of a far more draconian proposal that would have completely banned all property sales, including home purchases, to citizens and dual nationals of the four targeted countries.

    The announcement of the original measure last year triggered widespread protests by Chinese and Iranian American activist groups in Texas. In response to the pressure, the bill was narrowed to focus on purchases of farmland by individuals deemed to be foreign citizens but created exemptions for citizens and permanent residents of the U.S.

    Civil liberties groups say that the changes do not go far enough and are asking for the measure to be killed in its entirety. Even with the changes, these groups say that it will contribute to a climate of fear and suspicion targeting immigrant groups.

    “The original text of this bill released in November was its most xenophobic and racist version, and its announcement triggered a lot of fear and panic in the community,” said Lily Trieu, executive director of the advocacy group Asian Texans for Justice. “In February, the author came back and amended the bill to address some concerns, though still not enough to make it good policy.”

    She added, “This bill continues to conflate individuals with the governments of their countries of origin, even though many people in the United States who hold foreign citizenship are here because they were opposed to those governments.”

    The bill was first introduced by Republican state Sen. Lois Kolkhorst last year. While Kolkhorst attempted to roll back extreme measures, activists say that a Pandora’s box has already been opened by the proposed legislation. (Kolkhorst did not respond to a request for comment.)

    A copycat bill was introduced last month targeting citizens from the same four countries and would ban them from attending public universities in the state if passed.

    “The rhetoric that people from these countries pose a danger and should be unwelcome is already out there,” said Trieu. “People are already using this bill to discriminate against people from these four countries.”

    Though the bill in Texas has faced headwinds from activist groups, a similar measure targeting the same four countries, as well as citizens of Cuba, Venezuela, and Syria, is also being pushed ahead in Florida by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

    The introduction of S.B. 147 has hit Iranian American communities in the state particularly hard. Many Iranian Americans are still feeling the lingering effects of Trump-era suppression of their civil liberties, most notoriously the so-called Muslim ban that targeted Iranians and citizens of several other Muslim-majority countries for exclusion from entry to the U.S.

    The ban became a signature part of President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant governing platform. The list of seven countries that were subject to the ban was originally taken from a previous visa-waiver exclusion list built under President Barack Obama’s administration that targeted these states as “countries of concern.”

    From there, it was a simple matter of escalation for Trump to take the list and use it to exclude citizens of those countries from entering the U.S. entirely. Iranian American activist groups say that they fear the bill from the Texas Senate could lead to a similar slippery slope, where the precedent of a ban on large farmland purchases could be used as a means to introduce discriminatory restrictions on other rights they hold in the U.S.

    “This bill looks like 21st century version of the Alien Land Laws that targeted Asian immigrants in the 19th century and should be rejected as unconstitutional by legislatures,” said Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council. “The Iranian American community has already had this experience where a measure that may seem a little more reasonable at first is then used as justification for far more extreme actions targeting people based on their national origin.”

    The original impetus for the bill was concern over plans by a Chinese firm to buy land to build a wind farm in Texas, portions of which would have been near a U.S. military air base. Although U.S. officials who reviewed concerns about the purchase determined that it would not pose a security threat, the firm, controlled by a Chinese billionaire named Sun Guangxin, was forced to sell its interest in the project to a Spanish company.

    Last month, a coalition of human rights groups issued a letter to Abbott, the Texas governor, calling on him not to sign the bill, arguing that it would contribute to a climate of intolerance and fear in the state.

    “We are deeply concerned,” the letter said, “that Asian, Iranian, Russian, and other communities are being singled out and denied the ability to do what every other similarly situated individual in America has the right to do: build a life and put down roots in the place that they call home.”


    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Murtaza Hussain.

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    ACTION ALERT: False NYT Spy Claim on Iran Nukes Needs Correction https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/01/action-alert-false-nyt-spy-claim-on-iran-nukes-needs-correction/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/05/01/action-alert-false-nyt-spy-claim-on-iran-nukes-needs-correction/#respond Mon, 01 May 2023 21:51:25 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9033322 Please tell the New York Times to correct its false claim that there is no doubt that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

    The post ACTION ALERT: False NYT Spy Claim on Iran Nukes Needs Correction appeared first on FAIR.

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    NYT: Iranian Insider and British Spy: How a Double Life Ended on the Gallows

    The New York Times (5/1/23) claims an Iranian who spied for Britain delivered “valuable information”—but its description of what he supposedly revealed is disinformation.

    The New York Times (5/1/23), reporting on Iran’s execution of British spy Alireza Akbari, reported:

    The spy had provided valuable information — and would continue to do so for years — intelligence that would prove critical in eliminating any doubt in Western capitals that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons.

    This is not correct; as FAIR has often pointed out (FAIR.org, 10/17/17, 9/9/15, 9/24/13; 1/31/13; Extra!, 3–4/08), the position of US intelligence is that it has no proof Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. As the US State Department reiterated in April 2022:

    The United States continues to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons–development activities it judge necessary to produce a nuclear device.

    This is a serious error that deserves prompt correction.


    ACTION:

    Please tell the New York Times to correct its false claim that there is no doubt that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

    CONTACT:

    Letters: letters@nytimes.com

    Readers Center: Feedback

    Twitter: @NYTimes

    Please remember that respectful communication is the most effective. Feel free to leave a copy of your communication in the comments thread.

     

    The post ACTION ALERT: False NYT Spy Claim on Iran Nukes Needs Correction appeared first on FAIR.


    This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Jim Naureckas.

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    Remembering Akbar, Iran, and Other Gnarly Things Like Revolution https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/30/remembering-akbar-iran-and-other-gnarly-things-like-revolution/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/30/remembering-akbar-iran-and-other-gnarly-things-like-revolution/#respond Sun, 30 Apr 2023 05:53:39 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=280416 April 30, 2023 by Susie Day
    As one of those wistful U.S. leftists who occasionally think ahead to possible anti-imperialist revolution, I am never quite sure what to do about Iran. I show up at demonstrations called by Iranian feminists to decry the horrific deaths of people like Mahsa Amini and to support Iranian protests for democracy. But, given that my […]
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    Susie Day has written about prison issues since 1988, when she began reporting on the cases of people charged with political protest acts, one of them, Marilyn Buck. Her book, The Brother You Choose: Paul Coates and Eddie Conway Talk About Life, Politics, and The Revolution, was published by Haymarket Books in 2020.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Susie Day.

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    Journalist Kayvan Samimi rearrested in Iran, held in undisclosed location https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/24/journalist-kayvan-samimi-rearrested-in-iran-held-in-undisclosed-location/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/24/journalist-kayvan-samimi-rearrested-in-iran-held-in-undisclosed-location/#respond Mon, 24 Apr 2023 20:22:24 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=279424 Washington, D.C., April 24, 2023—Iranian authorities should immediately release journalist Kayvan Samimi, drop any charges against him, and release all members of the press held for their work, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Monday.

    On April 20, authorities in Tehran arrested Samimi, the editor-in-chief of the state-run Iran-e Farda magazine, and took him to an undisclosed location, according to news reports. Samimi was due to speak on April 21 on a panel organized by a group of Iranian journalists and university professors, according to those reports and a person familiar with the situation who spoke to CPJ on the condition of anonymity, for fear of government reprisal.

    Authorities said he was arrested for having “connections with hostile anti-state groups in exile” but did not specify whether he had been formally charged. CPJ was unable to determine where Samimi is being held.

    “Iranian authorities must immediately release journalist Kayvan Samimi and drop any charges filed against him for his work,” said Sherif Mansour, CPJ’s Middle East and North Africa program coordinator. “Members of the press must be allowed to live without constant fear that they will be harassed and detained.”

    Samimi, 74, was previously detained on December 7, 2020, to serve a three-year sentence; he was released on January 26, 2023, according to CPJ research and news reports.

    Iranian authorities have arrested at least 95 other journalists since mass protests erupted across the country following the death in morality-police custody of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini.

    CPJ emailed Iran’s mission to the United Nations for comment but did not receive any response.


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Erik Crouch.

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    Journalist Saeed Seif-Ali rearrested in Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/17/journalist-saeed-seif-ali-rearrested-in-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/17/journalist-saeed-seif-ali-rearrested-in-iran/#respond Mon, 17 Apr 2023 19:41:27 +0000 https://cpj.org/?p=277822 Washington, D.C., April 17, 2023—Iranian authorities should immediately release journalist Saeed Seif-Ali and drop any charges against him, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Monday.

    On April 11, authorities summoned Seif-Ali, editor-in-chief of the state-run news website Didbaniran.ir, and then arrested him and took him to an undisclosed location, according to news reports.

    Seif-Ali was previously detained on January 7, 2023, and was released on bail after eight days, according to CPJ documentation and those news reports. CPJ was unable to immediately determine where Seif-Ali is being held or whether any charges have been filed against him.

    “Iranian authorities must drop any charges filed against journalist Saeed Seif-Ali and should free him immediately and unconditionally,” said Sherif Mansour, CPJ’s Middle East and North Africa program coordinator. “Authorities must let members of the press do their work without fear that they will be subject to arbitrary arrest and detention.”

    The journalist’s wife Asal Ismaeilzadeh was quoted in those reports saying that Seif-Ali was summoned to court on April 11 to meet with a judge about that previous arrest.

    Iranian authorities have arrested at least 95 journalists, including Seif-Ali, since September 2022, when mass protests erupted across the country following the death in morality-police custody of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini.

    Didbaniran.ir covered those protests and journalists’ arrests at the time.

    CPJ emailed Iran’s mission to the United Nations for comment but did not receive any response


    This content originally appeared on Committee to Protect Journalists and was authored by Erik Crouch.

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    #Iran Surveils Women with Smart Security Cameras. https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/14/iran-surveils-women-with-smart-security-cameras/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/14/iran-surveils-women-with-smart-security-cameras/#respond Fri, 14 Apr 2023 13:17:23 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=787a7858364447a0f2f628ba6955a6da
    This content originally appeared on Human Rights Watch and was authored by Human Rights Watch.

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    Reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran: the Significance of the China Effort https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/04/reconciling-saudi-arabia-and-iran-the-significance-of-the-china-effort/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/04/reconciling-saudi-arabia-and-iran-the-significance-of-the-china-effort/#respond Tue, 04 Apr 2023 04:54:06 +0000 https://www.counterpunch.org/?p=278423

    It would be wrong to view the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran as something that happened suddenly.

    Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, ties between the two important Muslim neighbours have been strained. For the Saudi elite the Revolution was not only anti-monarchical but also a boost to the Shia sect within Islam.  For the Iranian revolutionaries, Saudi opposition was motivated largely by its intimate relationship to American and other Western elites and their interests. This strained relationship sank to its nadir in 2016 when a respected Shia cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, was executed by the Sunni Saudi authorities. Shia communities all over West Asia and even in Central Asia were deeply upset by this callous deed.

    The execution reinforced the negative image of the Saudi government. The image was further tarnished by the dastardly murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi  by killers allegedly linked to the apex of Saudi society. Western elites and human rights activists were aghast at the cruel barbarity of the assassination. A chasm of mistrust was now developing between the West and Saudi Arabia. In the midst of all this, the US, mainly for commercial reasons, sought to increase its own oil output through fracking of shale rock and therefore indirectly, reduced the significance of Saudi oil in the global market. As a result of all these and other developments, the Saudi elite in the last two or three years was beginning to feel that it is being pushed into a corner.

    Ironically, the Iranian leadership was also beginning to feel isolated.  When the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)  was agreed upon by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, on the one hand, and the Iranian government, on the other, in April 2015, the Iranian people were hopeful that with financial and economic sanctions lifted, investments will flow into the land and the country would emerge as a vibrant actor in the regional and global arena. However, that hope was short-lived as a new US president, Donald Trump, torpedoed the JCPOA in 2018 mainly because of pressure from Israel. Iran’s economic woes became even more severe and undermined its political stability and weakened its social cohesiveness. Iran’s internal crisis was further compounded by an incompetent leadership that lacked rapport with the ordinary masses.

    Given the colossal challenges facing the Saudi and Iranian governments, they were impelled to reach out to one another so that their mutual antagonism would not further emasculate their waning strength. China’s readiness to bring the two countries together was, given the circumstances, a bonanza. Only a nation with the gravitas of China could have played the role   of mediator. The US’s decades old antagonism towards Iran precluded any such role for her. Russia with ties to both the adversaries could have stepped in except that its war in Ukraine was consuming all its energies.

    China not only has good relations with both countries but also imports huge quantities of oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia. More importantly, China appreciates the fact that neither country joined the US orchestrated bandwagon to condemn China for its alleged persecution of the Uighur Muslim minority in Sinkiang province. Trying to reconcile the two Muslim adversaries was perhaps China’s way of saying ‘thank you’ to them.

    However, China’s role, significant as it is, does not hold the key to genuine restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is the two countries themselves that will determine the success or failure of the Chinese effort. For a start, if they can help to end a number of conflicts in the region purportedly linked to the two protagonists, it would be a good sign. It is said that current conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen, some of which are violent, are      fomented by either Saudi Arabia or Iran. Of course, other actors from inside and outside the region are also involved.

    A conflict which has drawn both sides is the one in Yemen. The formal government is supported by the Saudi elite while rebels opposed to it, the Houthis, are reportedly sustained by the Iranian authorities. According to the United Nations (UN), a hundred and fifty thousand Yemenis have lost their lives in the 9 year  conflict.  Thousands of others have also perished as a result of famine and disease. If the Saudi-Iran thaw, engineered by China, can lead to the resolution of the Yemen conflict in the immediate future, a lot of peace-loving people all over the world will rejoice.

    Though a variety of forces and factors are intertwined in the Yemen conflict, as in each and every one of the other conflicts, there is an underlying cause to all of them which is related to the one most perennial and persistent dichotomy within the Muslim world. This is the Sunni-Shia dichotomy   which we have alluded to.  It  arose from a disagreement over who should  lead the Muslim community ( Ummah) when the Prophet Muhammad ( Peace be Upon Him)  died in 632. Though one of the contenders, Abu Bakr, the Prophet’s father-in-law was chosen as the Caliph, supporters of the other contender, Ali  ibn-Talib, the Prophet’s son-in-law,  continued to hold on to the belief that he was the rightful leader and felt marginalised.  Their sense of marginalisation became even more severe when they witnessed what they alleged were serious transgressions of the faith and the Islamic struggle for justice occurring during the rule of successors of the Caliph Abu Bakr, particularly Caliph Yazid. Their legitimate frustrations set against the determined arrogance of the ruling Caliph and his followers reached its zenith in a famous confrontation at the battle of Karbala in 680 .    In that battle, the better equipped and numerically stronger Caliph Yazid and his supporters prevailed. The dissenters led by Ali’s son, Hussein ,and many other members of the Prophet’s family were mercilessly massacred. That episode known as Ashura is observed by Muslims till today, especially Shias, as a shining instance of human beings defending fundamental principles of justice and truth against great odds embodied in power and position. Ashura became the spiritual and moral foundation of Shia opposition to the majority Sunnis. Over the centuries the Shia minority sect acquired doctrinal and ritualistic features that distinguished Shias from the Sunnis. It must be emphasised nonetheless that the central characteristics of Islam…. belief in the Oneness of God; recognition of Muhammad as the last of God’s Prophets; adherence to the Quranic message as guidance in this transient life; and the acceptance of divine judgement in the hereafter ……. continued to bind Sunnis and Shias within the same religious community.

    But the bond emanating from these characteristics sometimes succumbed to the pulls and pressures of politics and power and  of personalities and vested interests who chose to give greater significance to the differences that separated Sunnis from Shias than their similarities. This is why right through the centuries it has been difficult to bridge the Sunni-Shia chasm. Be that as it may, there have been numerous attempts to bring Sunnis and Shias together. And there have been moments when they have forged strong bonds  in facing common challenges or in pursuing shared goals.

    I initiated a modest move in 2013 through my NGO, JUST, to get the two groups to adopt a common position on a matter  of grave concern to both. The former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohammad, and the former President of Iran, Muhammad Khatami, were persuaded to issue a joint appeal to Sunnis and Shias to stop killing one another as inter-sectarian violence was rife at that time in some parts of the Muslim world. There was very little media coverage on the Mahathir-Khatami appeal. Hardly any Muslim leader of stature responded. Even Muslim civil society groups gave scant attention to the plea from the two leaders. In other words, a noble call to end fighting fell on deaf ears.

    The China initiative on Saudi-Iran ties is different in its approach. It focuses on inter-state relations. It hopes that state actors will be prepared to use state power to reduce and even eliminate inter-state animosities. At some point down the road, the three states, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China and other states will have to deal with the ramifications of the Sunni-Shia dichotomy.

    For the time being let us turn to some of the opposition to the Saudi-Iran peace plan. The loudest denunciation of the plan has come from the Israeli government. Israel fears that the plan will work against Israel’s machinations in the region. Israel is hell-bent on isolating Iran and mobilising all the Arab  states in the region against Iran. Towards this end, it has not only exploited the Sunni-Shia dichotomy but also the Arab-Persian division since Iran is the only Persian state in the Arab world.

    Israel sees Iran as a threat to not only its existence, but also to the whole of West Asia since it, (Iran) according to Israel, is determined to build and use a nuclear bomb. Incidentally, Israel  is the only state in the region that possesses nuclear bombs. Besides, Iran has repeatedly emphasised that it will not manufacture or deploy a nuclear bomb because it is against Islamic teachings.

    If the Iran-Saudi accord makes it difficult to isolate Iran, it is inimical to Israel’s ambitions for yet another reason. As a way of strengthening its position in its Arab neighbourhood and within the Muslim world, Israel has always wanted to establish formal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. That has become more problematic now that Saudi Arabia and Iran have come together. It is significant that Saudi Arabia has also made it clear that it will not recognise Israel as long as it does not recognise Palestine’s right to nationhood and acknowledges the right of Palestinians to return to their homeland. It is another way of saying that Saudi Arabia will not do what other Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain have done in recent times in the name of implementing the so-called Abraham Accords.

    If any other nation is even more apprehensive of the Saudi-Iran bid to reconcile through China’s initiative, it would be the United States of America. It is only too apparent that China has become a major actor in West Asia. It is amazing that it has succeeded to bring the US’s closest friend in the region next to Israel and its  furthest foe  in West Asia together through an accord  and in the process enhanced its role as a peace mediator. Indeed, a peace mediator is a role that befits the only nation in human history that has emerged as a global power through relatively peaceful means, without engaging in wars and committing wanton violence.

    Perhaps it is in this role as a peacemaker that China may be able to end the protracted conflict between Israel, on the one hand, and Palestine and other  Arab states, on the other. Perhaps this is how Palestinians will be able to exercise their right of self-determination and regain their dignity as a nation—- something which was never possible as long as the region was under US hegemony.

    This is why China’s role in restoring Saudi- Iran ties may well be the harbinger of a new dawn in West Asia and a new era in international relations.

    An earlier version of this article appeared in China Focus on 30th March 2023.


    This content originally appeared on CounterPunch.org and was authored by Chandra Muzaffar.

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    The Tragedy of US Diplomacy Pushing for War, But Never Peace https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/03/the-tragedy-of-us-diplomacy-pushing-for-war-but-never-peace/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/03/the-tragedy-of-us-diplomacy-pushing-for-war-but-never-peace/#respond Mon, 03 Apr 2023 16:55:14 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/the-tragedy-of-us-diplomacy-pushing-for-war-but-never-peace

    Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God. - Matthew 5:9

    In a brilliant op-ed published in the New York Times, the Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi explained how China, with help from Iraq, was able to mediate and resolve the deeply-rooted conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, whereas the United States was in no position to do so after siding with the Saudi kingdom against Iran for decades. The title of Parsi's article, "The U.S. Is Not an Indispensable Peacemaker,"refers to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's use of the term "indispensable nation" to describe the U.S. role in the post-Cold War world.

    The irony in Parsi's use of Albright's term is that she generally used it to refer to U.S. war-making, not peacemaking. In 1998, Albright toured the Middle East and then the United States to rally support for President Clinton's threat to bomb Iraq. After failing to win support in the Middle East, she wasconfronted by heckling and critical questions during a televised event at Ohio State University, and she appeared on the Today Show the next morning to respond to public opposition in a more controlled setting. Albright claimed, "..if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see here the danger to all of us. I know that the American men and women in uniform are always prepared to sacrifice for freedom, democracy and the American way of life."

    Albright's readiness to take the sacrifices of American troops for granted had already got her into trouble when she famously asked General Colin Powell, "What's the use of having this superb military you're always talking about if we can't use it?" Powell wrote in his memoirs, "I thought I would have an aneurysm."

    But Powell himself later caved to the neocons, or the "fucking crazies" as he called them in private, and dutifully read the lies they made up to try to justify the illegal invasion of Iraq to the UN Security Council in February 2003.

    For the past 25 years, administrations of both parties have caved to the "crazies" at every turn. Albright and the neocons' exceptionalist rhetoric, now standard fare across the U.S. political spectrum, leads the United States into conflicts all over the world, in an unequivocal, Manichean way that defines the side it supports as the side of good and the other side as evil, foreclosing any chance that the United States can later play the role of an impartial or credible mediator.

    Today, this is true in the war in Yemen, where the U.S. chose to join a Saudi-led alliance that committed systematic war crimes, instead of remaining neutral and preserving its credibility as a potential mediator. It also applies, most notoriously, to the U.S. blank check for endless Israeli aggression against the Palestinians, which doom its mediation efforts to failure. For China, however, it is precisely its policy of neutrality that has enabled it to mediate a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the same applies to the African Union's successful peace negotiations in Ethiopia, and to Turkey's promising mediation between Russia and Ukraine, which might have ended the slaughter in Ukraine in its first two months but for American and British determination to keep trying to pressure and weaken Russia.

    But neutrality has become anathema to U.S. policymakers. George W. Bush's threat, "You are either with us or against us," has become an established, if unspoken, core assumption of 21st century U.S. foreign policy. The response of the American public to the cognitive dissonance between our wrong assumptions about the world and the real world they keep colliding with has been to turn inward and embrace an ethos of individualism. This can range from New Age spiritual disengagement to a chauvinistic America First attitude. Whatever form it takes for each of us, it allows us to persuade ourselves that the distant rumble of bombs, albeit mostly American ones, is not our problem.

    The U.S. corporate media has validated and increased our ignorance by drastically reducing foreign news coverage and turning TV news into a profit-driven echo chamber peopled by pundits in studios who seem to know even less about the world than the rest of us.

    Most U.S. politicians now rise through the legal bribery system from local to state to national politics, and arrive in Washington knowing next to nothing about foreign policy. This leaves them as vulnerable as the public to neocon cliches like the ten or twelve packed into Albright's vague justification for bombing Iraq: freedom, democracy, the American way of life, stand tall, the danger to all of us, we are America, indispensable nation, sacrifice, American men and women in uniform, and "we have to use force."

    Faced with such a solid wall of nationalistic drivel, Republicans and Democrats alike have left foreign policy firmly in the experienced but deadly hands of the neocons, who have brought the world only chaos and violence for 25 years.

    All but the most principled progressive or libertarian members of Congress go along to get along with policies so at odds with the real world that they risk destroying it, whether by ever-escalating warfare or by suicidal inaction on the climate crisis and other real-world problems that we must cooperate with other countries to solve if we are to survive.

    It is no wonder that Americans think the world's problems are insoluble and that peace is unattainable, because our country has so totally abused its unipolar moment of global dominance to persuade us that that is the case. But these policies are choices, and there are alternatives, as China and other countries are dramatically demonstrating. President Lula da Silva of Brazil is proposing to form a "peace club" of peacemaking nations to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine, and this offers new hope for peace.

    During his election campaign and his first year in office, President Biden repeatedly promised to usher in a new era of American diplomacy, after decades of war and record military spending. Zach Vertin, now a senior adviser to UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, wrote in 2020 that Biden's effort to "rebuild a decimated State Department" should include setting up a "mediation support unit… staffed by experts whose sole mandate is to ensure our diplomats have the tools they need to succeed in waging peace."

    Biden's meager response to this call from Vertin and others was finallyunveiled in March 2022, after he dismissed Russia's diplomatic initiatives and Russia invaded Ukraine. The State Department's new Negotiations Support Unit consists of three junior staffers quartered within the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations. This is the extent of Biden's token commitment to peacemaking, as the barn door swings in the wind and the four horsemen of the apocalypse - War, Famine, Conquest and Death - run wild across the Earth.

    As Zach Vertin wrote, "It is often assumed that mediation and negotiation are skills readily available to anyone engaged in politics or diplomacy, especially veteran diplomats and senior government appointees. But that is not the case: Professional mediation is a specialized, often highly technical, tradecraft in its own right."

    The mass destruction of war is also specialized and technical, and the United States now invests close to a trillion dollars per year in it. The appointment of three junior State Department staffers to try to make peace in a world threatened and intimidated by their own country's trillion-dollar war machine only reaffirms that peace is not a priority for the U.S. government.

    By contrast, the European Union created its Mediation Support Team in 2009 and now has 20 team members working with other teams from individual EU countries. The UN's Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs has a staff of 4,500, spread all across the world.

    The tragedy of American diplomacy today is that it is diplomacy for war, not for peace. The State Department's top priorities are not to make peace, nor even to actually win wars, which the United States has failed to do since 1945, apart from the reconquest of small neocolonial outposts in Grenada, Panama, and Kuwait. Its actual priorities are to bully other countries to join U.S.-led war coalitions and buy U.S. weapons, to mute calls for peace in international fora, to enforce illegal and deadly coercive sanctions, and to manipulate other countries into sacrificing their people in U.S. proxy wars.

    The result is to keep spreading violence and chaos across the world. If we want to stop our rulers from marching us toward nuclear war, climate catastrophe, and mass extinction, we had better take off our blinders and start insisting on policies that reflect our best instincts and our common interests, instead of the interests of the warmongers and merchants of death who profit from war.


    This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Medea Benjamin.

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    The Tragedy of US Diplomacy Pushing for War, But Never Peace https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/03/the-tragedy-of-us-diplomacy-pushing-for-war-but-never-peace/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/03/the-tragedy-of-us-diplomacy-pushing-for-war-but-never-peace/#respond Mon, 03 Apr 2023 16:55:14 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/the-tragedy-of-us-diplomacy-pushing-for-war-but-never-peace

    Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God. - Matthew 5:9

    In a brilliant op-ed published in the New York Times, the Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi explained how China, with help from Iraq, was able to mediate and resolve the deeply-rooted conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, whereas the United States was in no position to do so after siding with the Saudi kingdom against Iran for decades. The title of Parsi's article, "The U.S. Is Not an Indispensable Peacemaker,"refers to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's use of the term "indispensable nation" to describe the U.S. role in the post-Cold War world.

    The irony in Parsi's use of Albright's term is that she generally used it to refer to U.S. war-making, not peacemaking. In 1998, Albright toured the Middle East and then the United States to rally support for President Clinton's threat to bomb Iraq. After failing to win support in the Middle East, she wasconfronted by heckling and critical questions during a televised event at Ohio State University, and she appeared on the Today Show the next morning to respond to public opposition in a more controlled setting. Albright claimed, "..if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see here the danger to all of us. I know that the American men and women in uniform are always prepared to sacrifice for freedom, democracy and the American way of life."

    Albright's readiness to take the sacrifices of American troops for granted had already got her into trouble when she famously asked General Colin Powell, "What's the use of having this superb military you're always talking about if we can't use it?" Powell wrote in his memoirs, "I thought I would have an aneurysm."

    But Powell himself later caved to the neocons, or the "fucking crazies" as he called them in private, and dutifully read the lies they made up to try to justify the illegal invasion of Iraq to the UN Security Council in February 2003.

    For the past 25 years, administrations of both parties have caved to the "crazies" at every turn. Albright and the neocons' exceptionalist rhetoric, now standard fare across the U.S. political spectrum, leads the United States into conflicts all over the world, in an unequivocal, Manichean way that defines the side it supports as the side of good and the other side as evil, foreclosing any chance that the United States can later play the role of an impartial or credible mediator.

    Today, this is true in the war in Yemen, where the U.S. chose to join a Saudi-led alliance that committed systematic war crimes, instead of remaining neutral and preserving its credibility as a potential mediator. It also applies, most notoriously, to the U.S. blank check for endless Israeli aggression against the Palestinians, which doom its mediation efforts to failure. For China, however, it is precisely its policy of neutrality that has enabled it to mediate a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the same applies to the African Union's successful peace negotiations in Ethiopia, and to Turkey's promising mediation between Russia and Ukraine, which might have ended the slaughter in Ukraine in its first two months but for American and British determination to keep trying to pressure and weaken Russia.

    But neutrality has become anathema to U.S. policymakers. George W. Bush's threat, "You are either with us or against us," has become an established, if unspoken, core assumption of 21st century U.S. foreign policy. The response of the American public to the cognitive dissonance between our wrong assumptions about the world and the real world they keep colliding with has been to turn inward and embrace an ethos of individualism. This can range from New Age spiritual disengagement to a chauvinistic America First attitude. Whatever form it takes for each of us, it allows us to persuade ourselves that the distant rumble of bombs, albeit mostly American ones, is not our problem.

    The U.S. corporate media has validated and increased our ignorance by drastically reducing foreign news coverage and turning TV news into a profit-driven echo chamber peopled by pundits in studios who seem to know even less about the world than the rest of us.

    Most U.S. politicians now rise through the legal bribery system from local to state to national politics, and arrive in Washington knowing next to nothing about foreign policy. This leaves them as vulnerable as the public to neocon cliches like the ten or twelve packed into Albright's vague justification for bombing Iraq: freedom, democracy, the American way of life, stand tall, the danger to all of us, we are America, indispensable nation, sacrifice, American men and women in uniform, and "we have to use force."

    Faced with such a solid wall of nationalistic drivel, Republicans and Democrats alike have left foreign policy firmly in the experienced but deadly hands of the neocons, who have brought the world only chaos and violence for 25 years.

    All but the most principled progressive or libertarian members of Congress go along to get along with policies so at odds with the real world that they risk destroying it, whether by ever-escalating warfare or by suicidal inaction on the climate crisis and other real-world problems that we must cooperate with other countries to solve if we are to survive.

    It is no wonder that Americans think the world's problems are insoluble and that peace is unattainable, because our country has so totally abused its unipolar moment of global dominance to persuade us that that is the case. But these policies are choices, and there are alternatives, as China and other countries are dramatically demonstrating. President Lula da Silva of Brazil is proposing to form a "peace club" of peacemaking nations to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine, and this offers new hope for peace.

    During his election campaign and his first year in office, President Biden repeatedly promised to usher in a new era of American diplomacy, after decades of war and record military spending. Zach Vertin, now a senior adviser to UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, wrote in 2020 that Biden's effort to "rebuild a decimated State Department" should include setting up a "mediation support unit… staffed by experts whose sole mandate is to ensure our diplomats have the tools they need to succeed in waging peace."

    Biden's meager response to this call from Vertin and others was finallyunveiled in March 2022, after he dismissed Russia's diplomatic initiatives and Russia invaded Ukraine. The State Department's new Negotiations Support Unit consists of three junior staffers quartered within the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations. This is the extent of Biden's token commitment to peacemaking, as the barn door swings in the wind and the four horsemen of the apocalypse - War, Famine, Conquest and Death - run wild across the Earth.

    As Zach Vertin wrote, "It is often assumed that mediation and negotiation are skills readily available to anyone engaged in politics or diplomacy, especially veteran diplomats and senior government appointees. But that is not the case: Professional mediation is a specialized, often highly technical, tradecraft in its own right."

    The mass destruction of war is also specialized and technical, and the United States now invests close to a trillion dollars per year in it. The appointment of three junior State Department staffers to try to make peace in a world threatened and intimidated by their own country's trillion-dollar war machine only reaffirms that peace is not a priority for the U.S. government.

    By contrast, the European Union created its Mediation Support Team in 2009 and now has 20 team members working with other teams from individual EU countries. The UN's Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs has a staff of 4,500, spread all across the world.

    The tragedy of American diplomacy today is that it is diplomacy for war, not for peace. The State Department's top priorities are not to make peace, nor even to actually win wars, which the United States has failed to do since 1945, apart from the reconquest of small neocolonial outposts in Grenada, Panama, and Kuwait. Its actual priorities are to bully other countries to join U.S.-led war coalitions and buy U.S. weapons, to mute calls for peace in international fora, to enforce illegal and deadly coercive sanctions, and to manipulate other countries into sacrificing their people in U.S. proxy wars.

    The result is to keep spreading violence and chaos across the world. If we want to stop our rulers from marching us toward nuclear war, climate catastrophe, and mass extinction, we had better take off our blinders and start insisting on policies that reflect our best instincts and our common interests, instead of the interests of the warmongers and merchants of death who profit from war.


    This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Medea Benjamin.

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    Women in Iran are going out in public unveiled as a form of protest for their rights ✊ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/03/women-in-iran-are-going-out-in-public-unveiled-as-a-form-of-protest-for-their-rights-%e2%9c%8a/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/03/women-in-iran-are-going-out-in-public-unveiled-as-a-form-of-protest-for-their-rights-%e2%9c%8a/#respond Mon, 03 Apr 2023 15:55:40 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=ab846f84408a5b556b9ad73c1c376746
    This content originally appeared on Amnesty International and was authored by Amnesty International.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/04/03/women-in-iran-are-going-out-in-public-unveiled-as-a-form-of-protest-for-their-rights-%e2%9c%8a/feed/ 0 384731
    Ted Cruz AUMF Amendment Would Authorize War With Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/28/ted-cruz-aumf-amendment-would-authorize-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/28/ted-cruz-aumf-amendment-would-authorize-war-with-iran/#respond Tue, 28 Mar 2023 18:45:45 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/news/ted-cruz-war-iran

    The U.S. Senate is set to vote Tuesday afternoon on a Republican amendment that would explicitly authorize the president to take military action against Iranian forces.

    Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the amendment's author, is looking to attach the measure to a resolution that—if passed—would repeal the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for use of military force in Iraq.

    The amendment's text contends that Article 2 of the U.S. Constitution "empowers the president to use force against forces of Iran, a state responsible for conducting and directing attacks against United States forces in the Middle East and to take actions for the purpose of ending Iran's escalation of attacks on, and threats to, United States interests."

    Brian Finucane, a senior adviser for the Crisis Group's U.S. program, called the Cruz amendment "pernicious" and warned that it would "have Congress endorse broad Article II authority for POTUS to use force against Iran, [without] even a caveat about actions amounting to 'war' in the constitutional sense."

    The amendment's prospects for passage are unclear, but the Senate is chock-full of Iran hawks—including some on the Democratic side. The amendment needs 60 votes to pass.

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) issued a statement on Tuesday voicing opposition to "sunsetting any military force authorizations in the Middle East."

    "Our terrorist enemies aren't sunsetting their war against us," McConnell said. "Tehran wants to push us out of Iraq and Syria. Why should Congress make that easier?"

    Cruz has introduced virtually identical amendments in the recent past. In 2021, the Texas Republican unsuccessfully pushed an amendment that would have empowered the president to "use force against forces of Iran."

    Ryan Costello, policy director of the National Iranian American Council, warned at the time that the Cruz amendment would "pre-authorize war with Iran."

    The vote on Cruz's new amendment will come just days after President Joe Biden authorized—without congressional approval—airstrikes targeting groups in Syria that the Pentagon said were "affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps," heightening concerns over what's become a dangerous proxy war.

    Following the airstrikes, which were launched in response to an attack in northeast Syria that killed an American contractor, Biden said that "the United States does not, does not, I emphasize, seek conflict with Iran."

    "But be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people," the president added.


    This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Jake Johnson.

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    Will the US-Backed War in Yemen Ever End? https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/28/will-the-us-backed-war-in-yemen-ever-end/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/28/will-the-us-backed-war-in-yemen-ever-end/#respond Tue, 28 Mar 2023 18:21:45 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/when-will-the-war-in-yemen-end

    This past Saturday marked the eighth anniversary of the launch of Operation Decisive Storm, the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen.

    With intelligence and logistical support from the U.S., UK, France and a few other Arab states, the Saudis conducted an indiscriminate air campaign beginning on March 26, 2015, targeting hospitals, schools, and food production sites, as well as a blockade on their southern neighbor.

    Their declared goal was to restore the government of Interim President Hadi to power in Sana’a and counter Iranian influence. But the conflict failed to achieve these goals and resulted in food insecurity that quickly became the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

    While some recent developments, including a Chinese-mediated deal to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, have offered some hope for an end to this catastrophic war, it remains unclear whether that hope can be realized in the near future.

    Current situation in Yemen

    There have been multiple failed attempts to extend the fragile truce that officially ended last October. The current de facto truce is a reflection of the stalemate on the ground.

    As has been true throughout the conflict, the warring parties appear determined to pursue power regardless of the detrimental impact on the Yemeni population. Despite sanctions, bombing, and international condemnation, fighting has prevailed and even intensified. In particular, the Houthis, the leading part of a coalition of groups called Ansar Allah, have not been dissuaded by international intervention, but rather further emboldened.

    In April of last year, U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg announced that the Houthis, the Saudi-led coalition, and the internationally recognized government of Yemen had agreed to a U.N.–sponsored two–month truce that was subsequently renewed twice for two months each time. Although the truce has now expired, the terms remain somewhat intact on the ground.

    While Saudi Arabia has largely refrained from airstrikes since the U.N.–sponsored truce expired in October, there are no mechanisms preventing it from relaunching its air war.

    Meanwhile, conditions on the ground remain dire. Yemenis continue to face restrictions on the movement of people and goods in the North, specifically Sana’a airport and the port of Hodeidah.

    Although the truce lifted some key restrictions, it has not been nearly enough to substantially ease the economic and humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The persistence of this situation may eventually push the Houthis to return to attacking Saudi Arabia, regardless of whether Riyadh and its allies engage in any diplomatic or military offensives.

    As the Houthis consolidate their control over northern Yemen, they are adopting more hardline positions such as requiring male guardians for women and restricting humanitarian flights to Yemen.

    Foreign intervention has failed to undermine the Houthis militarily and instead has only strengthened the group’s legitimating narrative of resisting foreign interference and unifying Yemen. The Houthis have effectively won the war and control the majority of the country with strong local support. While their increased radicalization poses a threat to their continued rule, no opposition in the North is strong enough to challenge them, especially under the current conditions of the war.

    But the Houthis will eventually have to share power with other groups in Yemen, which remains a tribal society that will not accept minority rule. Nonetheless, the Houthis thrive under conditions of war, and the longer the war drags on, the harder it will be to reconcile them with anything less than complete autonomy in the North.

    Yet there has been some progress. The Houthis and the new presidential council that replaced Hadi agreed last week in advance of Ramadan to a prisoner swap that would include the release of 887 detainees, and other confidence-building measures are under negotiation.

    Currently, the key factors holding up the successful conclusion of the negotiations — the payment of salaries to government workers in areas under Houthi control, fully opening the port of Hodeidah, and increasing the number of flights to and from Sana’a — seem to have been mostly agreed upon, although conflicting reports indicate that some challenges remain.

    However, regardless of the formal peace process, humanitarian concerns and human rights should remain at the forefront in the international community’s dealings with Yemen.

    While some have argued that the recent approval by the Saudis for three flights a week in and out of Sanaa and for some oil to enter the country via Hodeidah marks important progress, these shifts are by themselves completely insufficient to end the wider humanitarian crisis. Payment of government salaries, freedom of movement, and port access remain essential to the well-being of the Yemeni people and therefore should be de-linked from peace negotiations.

    While the Saudis have not resumed bombing, a formal, longer-lasting ceasefire agreement is essential to pave a path towards peace. It will be the first step in a long road of recovery and reconstruction, but a first step nonetheless.

    Washington’s Role

    The United States continues to provide crucial military and technical assistance to the Saudis. The U.S. Army trains Saudi soldiers, advises Saudi military personnel, and provides targeting assistance. The Saudi-led air campaign, which lasted between 2015 and 2022, largely depended on the U.S. refueling Saudi jets. U.S. defense companies maintain, repair, and upgrade Saudi vehicles and aircraft through Army contracts with the Saudi military totalling $120 million a month, not including the additional support provided by U.S. contractors.

    From 2015 to 2021, the Department of Defense administered at least $54.6 billion in military support to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which acted as Riyadh’s junior partner in Operation Decisive Storm and continues to support militias battling the Houthis and the internationally recognized government among other groups.

    While there is opposition within Congress towards U.S. military support to Saudi Arabia, a bill invoking the War Powers Resolution that passed both houses of Congress in 2019 and that would have significantly constrained U.S. support for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen was vetoed by Trump.

    In 2022, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) tried to push through a floor vote on the War Powers Resolution, but pulled the measure after consultations with the White House. He has promised to reintroduce the resolution after discussing language adjustments with the White House, presumably later this year.

    The White House has contended that the resolution is unnecessary and risks complicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. However, as Jamal Benomar, the former U.N. under-secretary-general, argues, “There’s been a lull in the fighting, but since there was no concerted effort to move the political process forward, the lull is a temporary one and all sides are preparing for the worst.”

    In fact, the current conflict is more volatile than in the past as Yemen has become more fragmented with a myriad of rival militias vying for power and sectarian tensions among the population appearing for the first time. The years of war have exacerbated geographic, religious, and historical fault lines, and the longer it continues the deeper these fault lines will cut.

    Humanitarian Crisis

    After eight years of continuous war, war crimes by all parties, and the Saudi blockade, Yemen still qualifies as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. More than 11 million children are in need of humanitarian assistance with more than 540,000 children under the age of five suffering from life-threatening malnutrition.

    Despite these dire circumstances, with generational implications, the blockade remains largely intact. Only a limited amount of fuel and flights are allowed within the country, and commercial shipments are still blocked. This violates international law and exacerbates the crisis, creating conditions ripe for radicalization.

    Iran-Saudi Deal

    The recent agreement between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia has contributed to hopes for peace in Yemen, but it may not have a large impact on the conflict.

    While the Houthis are often depicted by Western media as an Iranian proxy, there is little evidence that Tehran exerts decisive influence over the Houthis’ strategic decisions. Indeed, the Iranians reportedly opposed the Houthi seizure of Sana’a in 2015, the event that precipitated Operation Decisive Storm.

    While Iranian support is mainly political, some military assistance and equipment, such as training, is facilitated by Tehran, sometimes through its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. However, a Hezbollah commander acknowledged that the Houthis are already experienced fighters given their six wars with the central government, calling into question the actual impact of Iran on the course of the conflict.

    Isolated internationally and operating with limited resources, the Houthis have enhanced ties with Iran as a last resort to counter the Saudis. Thus, the alliance between the Houthis and Iran should be seen as more a marriage of convenience than an enduring or strategic alliance.

    However, the Saudi-Iran deal presents an opportunity for the Saudis to disengage from the costly conflict while saving face. As UN special envoy Hans Grundberg noted, “The parties must seize the opportunity presented by this regional and international momentum to take decisive steps towards a more peaceful future.”


    This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Arwa Mokdad.

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    How Iran Won the U.S. War in Iraq https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/17/how-iran-won-the-u-s-war-in-iraq/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/17/how-iran-won-the-u-s-war-in-iraq/#respond Fri, 17 Mar 2023 18:22:02 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=424061

    In January 2015, as Islamic State militants were waging an offensive across Iraq and Syria, an Iranian intelligence officer known among his colleagues by the code name Boroujerdi sat down for a meeting with an important official: then-Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

    The meeting, held at Abadi’s office in Iraq’s presidential palace in Baghdad, took place “without the presence of a secretary or a third person,” according to a report about the discussion contained in a leaked archive of cables from Iran’s shadowy Ministry of Intelligence and Security.

    Abadi was a member of Iraq’s exiled political class, mostly Shia, who had returned to take power following the U.S. invasion. The two men discussed a range of topics, including the threat of ISIS to the Iraqi state, the role of foreign powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the region, and, finally, the position of the West. On at least one point, they agreed: Despite the threat of ISIS and other regional powers, the political conditions wrought by the U.S. invasion of Iraq and removal of Saddam Hussein had created an opportunity for the Islamic Republic of Iran and its allied Iraqi elites to “take advantage of this situation,” according to the Ministry of Intelligence and Security report.

    Twenty years after U.S. troops first invaded Iraq, the classified Iranian intelligence documents, which were leaked to The Intercept and first reported in a series of stories that were published beginning in 2019, shed light on the important question of who actually won the war. One victor emerges clearly from the hundreds of pages of classified documents: Iran.

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    Today, Iran enjoys privileged access to Iraq’s political system and economy, while the United States has been reduced to a minor player. Iraqis themselves remain fractiously divided; many of their own political elites are close allies of Iran. The Ministry of Intelligence and Security cables, which were written between 2013 and 2015, the peak of the international campaign against ISIS, provide no shortage of examples of the expansion of Iran’s influence in Iraq. While helping train and organize Iraqi security forces who are ideologically tied to the Islamic Republic, activities documented at length in the cables, Iranian officials had also been routinely involved in promoting favored Iraqi politicians to important roles in the Iraqi government to protect Iran’s economic and political interests. One classified 2014 report contained in the trove of Iranian cables described then-future Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi as having a “special relationship” with Iran and named a laundry list of other Iraqi cabinet members who were close with the Islamic Republic — often people who had spent years exiled in Iran. The cables discuss how these close relationships have benefitted Iran, including by having sympathetic Iraqi officials give Iran access to Iraqi airspace and vital transportation connections with their allies in Syria.

    The privileged conversation between Boroujerdi and Abadi was being replicated at that time at many levels of Iraqi government and society. In the cables, Iranian officials documented their work to solidify business and security interests in Iraq while obtaining oil and development contracts in the northern Kurdish regions and water purification projects in the south, the latter won with the help of a $16 million bribe paid to an Iraqi member of Parliament, according to one of the documents. The cables also show how former Iraqi military officials, including individuals trained or supported by the U.S. during the occupation, had been pressed into the service of Iranian intelligence, with one typical operative described as being forced to “collaborate to save himself.”

    The war’s benefits to Iran were not solely political or security based either. Iraq is home to many sacred sites of Shia Islam, which, as the cables note, have opened up to Iranian tourism and influence. The documents in the Ministry of Intelligence and Security archive mostly provide individual reports of conversations and intelligence activities carried out by Iranian operatives inside Iraq. Yet overall, they depict Iran’s far-reaching political, security, and even cultural influence over Iraqi society in the vacuum left by the U.S. invasion.

    This picture of Iranian ascendance is not only reflected in that country’s own intelligence documents. A massive two-volume study published in 2019 by the U.S. Army War College came to a similar conclusion, stating that “an emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor” of the conflict. The study is the most comprehensive look yet at the costs and consequences of the war from a U.S. military perspective. Some of those costs are obvious and well known: Thousands of Americans were killed in combat after an ill-defined mission to find weapons of mass destruction devolved into a counterinsurgency campaign and civil war. But although most of the burden of the war was borne by the relatively small number of Americans who directly took part, the war had broader impacts on American society that continue to be felt today.

    “In the conflict’s immediate aftermath, the pendulum of American politics swung to the opposite pole with deep skepticism about foreign interventions.”

    “The Iraq War has the potential to be one of the most consequential conflicts in American history. It shattered a long-standing political tradition against pre-emptive wars,” the War College authors wrote. “In the conflict’s immediate aftermath, the pendulum of American politics swung to the opposite pole with deep skepticism about foreign interventions.”

    Iraqis themselves have suffered greatly from the war; millions have been killed, wounded, or displaced as a result of the invasion and the subsequent civil conflict. The emergence of the Sunni Islamist extremist group ISIS, which Iran’s intelligence documents discuss at length, was itself the product of the chaos of post-invasion Iraq, including abuses by rogue Iranian-backed militias. In the same 2015 conversation between Boroujerdi and former Prime Minister Abadi, the Iranian intelligence officer opined that “today, the Sunnis find themselves in the worst possible circumstances and have lost their self-confidence,” adding that they “are vagrants, their cities are destroyed, and an unclear future awaits them.”

    The miserable condition of Iraqi Sunnis had worried others within Iran’s intelligence establishment, who warned that many Sunnis, reeling from massacres by Iraqi government security forces and militias, had been driven not merely to welcome ISIS, but also other Iranian enemies as well.

    “The policies of Iran inside Iraq have given legitimacy for the Americans to return to Iraq,” one Iranian intelligence officer lamented. “People and parties who were fighting against America from the Sunni side now are wishing that not only America, but even Israel could come and rescue them from Iran.”

    In the end, ISIS was destroyed as the result of a tacit coalition between the Iraqi government, the United States, Iran, and the Kurdish Peshmerga, which combined to fight the group and regain control of its territories. Today, Iran remains the most powerful outside player inside Iraq. Although it has achieved a goal longed for since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s — to wield power in Iraq and incorporate its Shia-majority areas into Iran’s sphere of influence — Iran’s victory has proven, in many ways, an unhappy one.

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    During protests against government corruption in Iraq in 2019, Iraqis often blamed Iran and its allies, along with the United States, for the parlous state of the country. In 2020, Iranian Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a major architect of Iran’s policy in Iraq whose role is documented at length in the Ministry of Intelligence and Security archive, was assassinated in a U.S. drone strike near Baghdad’s airport, following tit-for-tat attacks between Iranian-backed militias and U.S. troops in the country.

    Despite relative peace following the defeat of ISIS, Iraq today remains a powder keg with widespread unemployment, environmental degradation, and poverty that its ruling elites, widely denounced by Iraqis as kleptocrats and puppets of foreign countries, have been unable or unwilling to address. Two decades after the first U.S. troops invaded Iraq, Iran is facing its own challenges with internal instability and the economic impact of a U.S.-led international sanctions campaign that has destroyed its economy.

    Yet when it comes to the shadow war between Iran and the United States in Iraq, Iranian elites likely view themselves as having prevailed — at a steep price to themselves, Americans, and Iraqis alike.


    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Murtaza Hussain.

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    Viral Iran Dance Video Inspires Imitators To Defy Regime https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/14/viral-iran-dance-video-inspires-imitators-to-defy-regime/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/14/viral-iran-dance-video-inspires-imitators-to-defy-regime/#respond Tue, 14 Mar 2023 10:39:13 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=5c3005c3136b22d75eb72ab03d998415
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Iranian nuclear deal threatened by political turmoil in Iran and Israel https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/iranian-nuclear-deal-threatened-by-political-turmoil-in-iran-and-israel/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/iranian-nuclear-deal-threatened-by-political-turmoil-in-iran-and-israel/#respond Mon, 13 Mar 2023 16:59:05 +0000 https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/iran-nuclear-enrichment-jcpoa-israel/ OPINION: Anti-government protests in both countries jeopardise already shaky deal to limit Iran’s nuclear programme


    This content originally appeared on openDemocracy RSS and was authored by Paul Rogers.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/iranian-nuclear-deal-threatened-by-political-turmoil-in-iran-and-israel/feed/ 0 379081
    China’s Middle East Deal: Iran & Saudi Arabia Reestablish Relations as U.S. Watches from Sidelines https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/chinas-middle-east-deal-iran-saudi-arabia-reestablish-relations-as-u-s-watches-from-sidelines-2/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/chinas-middle-east-deal-iran-saudi-arabia-reestablish-relations-as-u-s-watches-from-sidelines-2/#respond Mon, 13 Mar 2023 14:22:21 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=6f5dff4130c12b42e32fdee31f5112ef
    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/chinas-middle-east-deal-iran-saudi-arabia-reestablish-relations-as-u-s-watches-from-sidelines-2/feed/ 0 379102
    China’s Middle East Deal: Iran & Saudi Arabia Reestablish Relations as U.S. Watches from Sidelines https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/chinas-middle-east-deal-iran-saudi-arabia-reestablish-relations-as-u-s-watches-from-sidelines/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/13/chinas-middle-east-deal-iran-saudi-arabia-reestablish-relations-as-u-s-watches-from-sidelines/#respond Mon, 13 Mar 2023 12:13:00 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=9b5265ce0257619233f9c5b85f48058d Seg1 china iran saudi 2

    Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations after seven years and reopen their respective embassies within months, in a deal brokered Friday by China and signed in Beijing. The rapprochement between the two rivals is the latest sign of China’s growing presence in world affairs and waning U.S. influence in the Middle East amid a shift in focus to Ukraine and the Pacific region. “If we have a more stable Middle East, even if it’s mediated by the Chinese, that ultimately is good for the United States, as well,” says author and analyst Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He adds that the U.S. focus in the Middle East is mainly on helping Israel normalize relations with Arab states while “all of the pressure is taken off of Israel to end its occupation” of Palestinian territory.


    This content originally appeared on Democracy Now! and was authored by Democracy Now!.

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    US ‘Imperial Anxieties’ Mount Over China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Arabia Diplomatic Deal https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/11/us-imperial-anxieties-mount-over-china-brokered-iran-saudi-arabia-diplomatic-deal/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/11/us-imperial-anxieties-mount-over-china-brokered-iran-saudi-arabia-diplomatic-deal/#respond Sat, 11 Mar 2023 23:15:28 +0000 https://www.commondreams.org/news/china-saudi-arabia-iran

    While advocates of peace and a multipolar world order welcomed Friday's China-brokered agreement reestablishing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, U.S. press, pundits, and politicians expressed what one observer called "imperial anxieties" over the deal and growing Chinese influence in a region dominated by the United States for decades.

    The deal struck between the two countries—which are fighting a proxy war in Yemen—to normalize relations after seven years of severance was hailed by Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, as "a victory of dialogue and peace."

    The three nations said in a joint statement that the agreement is an "affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states and non-interference in internal affairs."

    "The U.S. encourages war while China pushes the opposite."

    Iran and Saudi Arabia "also expressed their appreciation and gratitude to the leadership and government of the People's Republic of China for hosting and sponsoring the talks, and the efforts it placed towards its success," the statement said.

    United Nations spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric thanked China for its role in the deal, asserting in a statement that "good neighborly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are essential for the stability of the Gulf region."

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    Amy Hawthorne, deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit group, toldThe New York Times that "China's prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically and outshines anything the U.S. has been able to achieve in the region since [President Joe] Biden came to office."

    Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington, D.C., called the deal a sign of "a battle of narratives for the future of the international order."

    CNN's Tamara Qiblawi called the agreement "the start of a new era, with China front and center."

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    Meanwhile, Ahmed Aboudouh, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, another D.C. think tank, wrote that "China just left the U.S. with a bloody nose in the Gulf."

    At the Carnegie Endowment, yet another think tank located in the nation's capital, senior fellow Aaron David Miller tweeted that the deal "boosts Beijing and legitimizes Tehran. It's a middle finger to Biden and a practical calculation of Saudi interests"

    Some observers compared U.S. and Chinese policies and actions in the Middle East.

    "The U.S. is supporting one side and suppressing the other, while China is trying to make both parties move closer," Wu Xinbo, dean of international studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, told the Times. "It is a different diplomatic paradigm."

    Murtaza Hussein, a reporter for The Intercept,tweeted that the fact that the agreement "was mediated by China as a trusted outside party shows shortcomings of belligerent U.S. approach to the region."

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    While cautiously welcoming the agreement, Biden administration officials expressed skepticism that Iran would live up to its end of the bargain.

    "This is not a regime that typically does honor its word, so we hope that they do," White House National Security Council Strategic Coordinator John Kirby told reporters on Friday—apparently without any sense of irony over the fact that the United States unilaterally abrogated the Iran nuclear deal during the Trump administration.

    Kirby added that the Biden administration would "like to see this war in Yemen end," but he did not acknowledge U.S. support for the Saudi-led intervention in a civil war that's directly or indirectly killed nearly 400,000 people since 2014, according to United Nations humanitarian officials.

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    U.S relations with Saudi Arabia have been strained during the tenure of President Joe Biden. While Biden—who once vowed to make the repressive kingdom a "pariah" over the gruesome murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi—has been willing to tolerate Saudi human rights abuses and war crimes, the president has expressed anger and frustration over the monarchy's decision to reduce oil production amid soaring U.S. gasoline prices and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Nevertheless, the Biden administration is currently trying to broker a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel following the Trump administration's mediation of the Abraham Accords, a series of diplomatic normalization agreements between Israel and erstwhile enemies the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

    The United States, which played a key role in overthrowing Iran's progressive government in a 1953 coup, has not had diplomatic relations with Tehran since shortly after the current Islamist regime overthrew the U.S.-backed monarchy that ruled with a brutal hand for 25 years following the coup.

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    Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in the Middle East Programs for the Atlantic Council, urged the U.S. to maintain friendly relations with brutal dictatorships in the region in order to prevent Chinese hegemony there.

    Panikoff wrote in an Atlantic Council analysis:

    We may now be seeing the emergence of China's political role in the region and it should be a warning to U.S. policymakers: Leave the Middle East and abandon ties with sometimes frustrating, even barbarous, but long-standing allies, and you'll simply be leaving a vacuum for China to fill. And make no mistake, a China-dominated Middle East would fundamentally undermine U.S. commercial, energy, and national security.

    Other observers also worried about China's rising power in the Middle East and beyond.

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    New York Times China correspondent David Pierson wrote Saturday that China's role in the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement shows Chinese President Xi Jinping's "ambition of offering an alternative to a U.S.-led world order."

    According to Pierson:

    The vision Mr. Xi has laid out is one that wrests power from Washington in favor of multilateralism and so-called noninterference, a word that China uses to argue that nations should not meddle in each other's internal affairs, by criticizing human rights abuses, for example.

    The Saudi-Iran agreement reflects this vision. China's engagement in the region has for years been rooted in delivering mutual economic benefits and shunning Western ideals of liberalism that have complicated Washington’s ability to expand its presence in the Gulf.

    Pierson noted Xi's Global Security Initiative, which seeks to promote "peaceful coexistence" in a multipolar world that eschews "unilateralism, bloc confrontation, and hegemonism" like U.S. invasions and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

    "Some analysts say the initiative is essentially a bid to advance Chinese interests by displacing Washington as the world's policeman," wrote Pierson. "The plan calls for respect of countries' 'indivisible security,' a Soviet term used to argue against U.S.-led alliances on China's periphery."

    The U.S. has attacked, invaded, or occupied more than 20 countries since 1950. During that same period, China has invaded two countries—India and Vietnam.

    "The Chinese, who for years played only a secondary role in the region, have suddenly transformed themselves into the new power player."

    New York Times chief White House correspondent Peter Baker also published an article Saturday about how the "China-brokered deal upends Mideast diplomacy and challenges [the] U.S."

    "The Americans, who have been the central actors in the Middle East for the past three-quarters of a century, almost always the ones in the room where it happened, now find themselves on the sidelines during a moment of significant change," fretted Baker. "The Chinese, who for years played only a secondary role in the region, have suddenly transformed themselves into the new power player."

    Some experts asserted that more peace in the Middle East would be a good thing, no matter who brokers it.

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    "While many in Washington will view China's emerging role as mediator in the Middle East as a threat, the reality is that a more stable Middle East where the Iranians and Saudis aren't at each other's throats also benefits the United States," tweeted Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    "Unfortunately, the U.S. has adopted an approach to the region that has disabled it from becoming a credible mediator," he lamented. "Too often, Washington takes sides in conflicts and becomes a co-belligerent—as in Yemen—which then reduces its ability to play the role of peacemaker."

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    "Washington should avoid a scenario where regional players view America as an entrenched warmaker and China as a flexible peacemaker," Parsi cautioned.


    This content originally appeared on Common Dreams and was authored by Brett Wilkins.

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    ‘Anger And Frustration’: Could Poison Reports Reignite Iran Protests? https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/10/anger-and-frustration-could-poison-reports-reignite-iran-protests/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/10/anger-and-frustration-could-poison-reports-reignite-iran-protests/#respond Fri, 10 Mar 2023 16:01:10 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=c070833cd0a300824079c1fc1e56a18f
    This content originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and was authored by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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    Many Things You Did Not Know About Iran-CIA https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/09/many-things-you-did-not-know-about-iran-cia/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/09/many-things-you-did-not-know-about-iran-cia/#respond Thu, 09 Mar 2023 15:00:33 +0000 https://dissidentvoice.org/?p=138544 Most people,who are interested in world politics have some knowledge of the 1953 coup in Iran by the CIA and the British Intelligence Service that ended up overthrowing the democratic Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadeq, restoring the Shah, the dictator, who had escaped to Europe, back to power. Well, the bad blood between the US and […]

    The post Many Things You Did Not Know About Iran-CIA first appeared on Dissident Voice.]]>
    Most people,who are interested in world politics have some knowledge of the 1953 coup in Iran by the CIA and the British Intelligence Service that ended up overthrowing the democratic Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadeq, restoring the Shah, the dictator, who had escaped to Europe, back to power.

    Well, the bad blood between the US and Iran has not stopped. I dare say most people are not aware that, SEVENTY years later, the CIA, and other Western powers, using over sixty TV/radio stations, mostly in the Los Angeles area, broadcast their lies and propaganda day after day while they attempt to poison and frustrate any effort by Iranians to improve their finances and their lives. To be precise, the target of such conspiracies are the people of Iran who dared to rise up and overthrow the Shah’s regime in 1979.

    After the coup d’état, the US suggested to the Iranian dictator that it would be mutually beneficial to create a secret police organization. The Shah who owed his throne to the CIA, accepted and the work of creation of a repressive secret service started with the financing of the United States, and training, by Israel.

    Before we continue with this story, I would like to backtrack and mention one other fact which could have some bearing with the rest of the story: Reza Shah, the Shah’s father and the founder of the Pahlavi dynasty had fascist tendencies and wanted to follow the Third Reich, and so, even though he was put in place with the help of the Allied Forces, he was also removed from power by them, and replaced by his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who until his final days called the Iranians Aryans. ATTENTION ZIONISTS WHO LOVED THE SHAH. I guess dirty politics makes strange bed-fellows.

    As the work of building the SAVAK (called by its acronymes, Sazeman Etela’at Va Amniete Keshvar, meaning Organization for Information and Security of the Country) got underway, a man by the name of Parviz Sabeti was brought on board who quickly moved up the ladder of promotion to eventually become the director of the SAVAK. Sabeti had the job of handpicking the torturers, sending them to Israel to be trained on interrogation techniques, and choosing or designing the tools of torture. A good amount of vicious beating at the time of arrest, and flogging using thick, electric cables by psychopathic torturers constituted the poor victim’s introduction to SAVAK. In addition, there were special tools, such as “Apollo” and the burning bed that would bring nightmares to their potential victims. The prisoners would be hung upside down, their heads inside a metal container that would echo their shouts and cries as they were beaten by maniac torturers. The burning bed was a heated, metal bed on which the prisoner would be placed, their hands and feet tied to the bed as it became hotter and hotter as the back of the prisoner was being burned and cooked. The victim’s cries could be heard by imprisoned writers, poets, activists, waiting for their turn. The stories about torture by the SAVAK were so horrific that many dissidents, even outside the country did not dare to speak against politics in Iran. “The walls have mice, and the mice have ears” was a common saying by Iranians, in reference to the SAVAK and its agents.

    Allow me to say this article could have been alternatively titled “The Shah’s SAVAK, The CIA, And Their Crimes Against Humanity.” How would you react if I told you this Iranian Eichmann, the torturer and murderer of thousands, lives in, and freely travels around the United States? There was a time when US administrations paid a lot more lip service to “freedom and democracy”, here and around the world, but no more. Am I having a nightmare, or is this today’s reality? Here we encounter total impunity on the part of the US government that allows torturers and mass murderers to freely go to live where they like.

    In response to such impunity I would suggest what is needed is an international commission to arrest this man – not to smuggle him outside the country, as Adolf Eichmann was, but to put him on trial right here in the United States, along with the American intelligence for their crimes against humanity.

    This needs to be done today, while the victims of such crimes are still alive, and there are many victims and witnesses. Some have become totally paralyzed as a result of floggings with the electric cables. Many have died. What we cannot allow to die is their ideals, the cause for humanity, fairness, and equality.

    The post Many Things You Did Not Know About Iran-CIA first appeared on Dissident Voice.


    This content originally appeared on Dissident Voice and was authored by Andres Kargar.

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    Hawkish Israel Is Pulling U.S. Into War With Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/01/hawkish-israel-is-pulling-u-s-into-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/01/hawkish-israel-is-pulling-u-s-into-war-with-iran/#respond Wed, 01 Mar 2023 18:24:44 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=422565
    People demonstrate against United States entering a war with Iran at the US Capitol on January 9, 2020 in Washington, D.C..

    People demonstrate against the United States entering a war with Iran at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 9, 2020, in Washington, D.C.

    Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images


    Almost two decades after the U.S. launched the disastrous invasion of Iraq, the Biden administration is on the verge of sleepwalking into yet another major armed conflict in the Middle East. Last week, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides appeared to endorse a plan for Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities with U.S. support. “Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with [Iran], and we’ve got their back,” he said at a meeting of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations.

    Nides’s words come after recent high-level military drills between Israel and the United States intended to showcase the ability to strike Iranian targets, as well as recent acts of sabotage and assassination inside Iran believed to have been carried out by both countries.

    It was not clear whether Nides was speaking on his own behalf or outlining an official change in U.S. policy, though the Biden administration has not walked back the remarks. In a press conference, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the remarks reflected consistent U.S. support of Israeli security. The U.S. has continued to support Israel’s increasingly hawkish Iran policies, including its “octopus doctrine” of strikes inside Iran as well as at Iranian targets throughout the region.

    Meanwhile, at first blush, the U.S. has little to lose, diplomatically speaking: The Iran nuclear deal is dead, thanks in large part to the Biden administration’s hesitance to reenter the agreement.

    On closer examination, though, the Israeli escalations mean that the U.S. now faces the unsavory prospect of a major crisis flaring up in the Middle East at the exact moment when its bandwidth is already stretched thin because of a major war in Europe and its deteriorating relationship with China.

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    “It’s now abundantly clear that the decision to leave the JCPOA was a blunder of enormous proportions, because it allowed Iran to restart its nuclear program and raise once again the question of what the U.S., Israel, or anyone else might do about it. This is exactly what many people warned about, and it’s exactly what’s happened,” said Stephen Walt, an international relations professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, referring to the nuclear deal by the initials of its former name, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “One of the reasons that you want to try to negotiate settlements to issues in dispute is that there are always new issues that come along. Now, while the administration has its hands full in Europe and elsewhere, it is possible that they will have another major crisis to deal with in the Middle East.”

    The nuclear deal was intended to avoid the Middle East confrontation now visible on the horizon. Signed by President Barack Obama in 2015, the deal traded strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for its reintegration into the global economy.

    When President Donald Trump violated the deal, in an apparent fit of personal pique at Obama, this pragmatic arrangement went out the window — not only removing limits on Iran’s nuclear program, but also politically empowering hard-liners inside Iran who had balked at negotiating in the first place and helping them to victory in Iran’s 2021 presidential elections.

    “From the Iranian perspective, Trump’s decision to leave the JCPOA made it look like the moderates inside Iran had simply been fooled — taken to cleaners by the Americans. They did all the things we asked them to do, they were in compliance, then we reneged on the deal,” said Walt. “That allowed the hard-liners to come in and say that we should not talk to Washington anyways because they’re untrustworthy.”

    With the Iran deal buried, there is no realistic prospect of dialogue with an increasingly hermetic and repressive government inside Iran.

    The U.S. conflict with Iran is, in many ways, a product of Iran’s conflict with Israel — a resolution to which was never part of the initial talks around the nuclear deal. Today, both Middle Eastern countries find themselves in a state of crisis. Iran is reeling from mass protests, economic turmoil, and domestic repression. Israel is experiencing widespread civil unrest over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to overhaul the Israeli judiciary, alongside moves to formalize apartheid-style annexation and military control over millions of Palestinians living in the West Bank.

    It is not uncommon for governments to deflect their citizenry’s ire by directing it at a foreign adversary — something both the Iranian and Israeli governments could benefit from.

    However much the U.S. public may not want it, a conflict between Israel and Iran would inevitably draw the U.S. military into the fray, as Nides’s recent comments recognized. Far from keeping Netanyahu in check — as past administrations, including Republican ones, sometimes did — the Biden administration appears to be giving tacit approval for steps likely to lead to war.

    “Israel can’t meaningfully strike Iran’s nuclear program themselves — they know they can’t, and we know they can’t. We would have to get involved.”

    “What we are seeing now is the Biden administration being very relaxed about threats from Israel that they would have to pay for,” said Gary Sick, an Iran expert at Columbia University’s Middle East Institute. “Israel can’t meaningfully strike Iran’s nuclear program themselves — they know they can’t, and we know they can’t. We would have to get involved.”

    With anti-government protests inside Iran ongoing, hawkish analysts in the United States recently began arguing that the Iranian people would jump at the opportunity to overthrow a government that has increasingly lost its legitimacy. A similar notion motivated Saddam Hussein’s Iraq to invade Iran in the 1980s, with international encouragement. At the time, there was a widespread belief that the 1979 revolution had thrown Iran into turmoil and that many Iranians would be glad to take the opportunity to overthrow their new theocratic leaders. Despite these predictions, the regime has remained in power.

    ”An attack that is supposed to be the coup de grâce against the Iranian government could actually strengthen their position and help them stay in power,” said Sick. “We can have a considerable degree of confidence that that is what would happen. People may not like the supreme leader and his government, but when their friends are being bombed, they can react in a very different way.”

    A conflict between Iran and Israel could have other geopolitical costs. The United States is currently expending all the diplomatic energy it can to maintain a coalition to isolate and confront Russia over its war in Ukraine, including by severing Russian access to global oil and gas markets. After a full year of war, this effort is already showing severe strain. If the U.S. finds itself dragged by its client states into a new war in the Middle East, it is unlikely to win many hearts and minds around the world, let alone at home.

    “The idea of a new war in the Middle East is not really popular anywhere,” said Sick. “If Israel carries out a raid and the United States gets involved, a lot of Americans are going to be questioning why we are getting ourselves involved in another major war that we can already tell isn’t going to be a good idea.”

    “I don’t see this as another Ukraine where everyone rallies to the side of the West,” he added. “It would be seen as another war of choice in the Middle East.”


    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Murtaza Hussain.

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    Pentagon Developed Contingency Plan for War With Iran https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/01/pentagon-developed-contingency-plan-for-war-with-iran/ https://www.radiofree.org/2023/03/01/pentagon-developed-contingency-plan-for-war-with-iran/#respond Wed, 01 Mar 2023 11:00:25 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=422184

    The U.S. military allocated spending for secret contingency operations pertaining to an Iran war plan, according to a classified Pentagon budget manual listing emergency and special programs reviewed by The Intercept.

    The contingency plan, code-named “Support Sentry,” was funded in 2018 and 2019, according to the manual, which was produced for the 2019 fiscal year. It classifies Support Sentry as an Iran “CONPLAN,” or concept plan, a broad contingency plan for war which the Pentagon develops in anticipation of a potential crisis.

    The existence of Support Sentry has not been previously reported. It is not clear from the document how much the Pentagon spent on the plan in those years. When asked about the program and whether it is still in place, Maj. John Moore, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, said, “As a matter of policy, we do not comment on numbered plans. Iran remains the leading source of instability in the region and is a threat to the United States and our partners. We are constantly monitoring threat streams in coordination with our regional partners and will not hesitate to defend U.S. national interests in the region.”

    Support Sentry is one example of the U.S. military’s growing comfort with – and support for — Israel’s aggressive stance toward Iran. As U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides’ bluntly put it earlier this month, “Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with [Iran] and we’ve got their back.”

    As major U.S. attempts at diplomacy with Iran collapsed under Trump, the Pentagon quietly moved Israel into its Central Command area of responsibility, officially grouping it with the mainly Arab countries of the Middle East. The reshuffling, which occurred in the final days of the Trump administration and has remained under Presidnt Joe Biden, is the military corollary to the financial and diplomatic alliances laid out by the Abraham Accords, a normalization agreement negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law and Middle East envoy, Jared Kushner, between Arab Gulf states and Israel. The accords were touted as a peace deal, but in fact served to align these countries against a common enemy: Iran.

    The U.S. and Israel have also collaborated on a growing number of military exercises in recent months that Israeli leaders say are designed to test potential attack plans with Iran.

    Contingency plans such as Support Sentry provide “the general outline—the overarching ‘concept’—of a plan to take some major action against an enemy,” Dakota Wood, a senior research fellow for defense programs at the Heritage Foundation and retired U.S. military planner who served as a strategist for the Marine Corps’ Special Operations Command, told The Intercept in an email.

    For instance, in June 1994, the Pentagon requested a CONPLAN for military operations in Haiti; by July, U.S. forces invaded and deposed Haiti’s democratically elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. The manual also notes that Support Sentry is a “COW,” or cost of war item.

    Though conventional wisdom might be that the military has contingency plans for everything, CONPLANs are, in fact, quite limited since preparing them is time consuming, Wood explained. “Since staff, time, and resources are always limited, no military command at any level would develop CONPLANs … for every conceivable contingency.”

    The existence of Support Sentry, then, suggests that the U.S. military takes the possibility seriously enough to prepare a strategic framework for it. CONPLANs also lead to consequences short of war, like military exercises.

    “CONPLANs serve as the intellectual framework or context when developing military exercises because it makes sense for units that are honing their skills to have that work be relevant to likely tasks,” Wood said.

    By 2018, President Donald Trump had vocally withdrawn the U.S. from the Iran deal. In January 2019, he tweeted a picture of a poster displayed at a cabinet meeting and directed at Iran that read “sanctions are coming” — a reference to the “Game of Thrones” TV series.

    Under Biden, U.S. policy toward the region remains much the same.

    On January 16, 2021, just four days before Biden’s inauguration, Trump ordered the military to reassign Israel to CENTCOM, its Middle East combatant command. Historically, the U.S. military has rather counterintuitively kept Israel under its European Command, or EUCOM, in order to avoid tensions with Gulf Arab allies like Saudi Arabia. This was one of a volley of last-minute decisions by Trump designed to force the Biden administration to abandon diplomacy and adopt the framework of his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran. “For decades, DOD placed Israel in the European Command (EUCOM) AOR due to significant tensions between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East,” a Congressional Research Service report about the move observed, noting that “improved Israeli ties with some Arab states may allow more open coordination to counter Iran.”

    Trump’s order followed a December 2020 bill introduced by several Republican senators, including Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., to study the transfer of Israel to CENTCOM.

    “Tasking CENTCOM to serve as the primary U.S. defense coordinator with Israel instead of EUCOM would acknowledge the new political reality of the Middle East under the Abraham Accords,” Cotton said in a press release. “Our bill requires a study of the potential transition, which could increase U.S.-Israel military cooperation with regional partners and help better secure the Middle East against threats like Iran.”

    Under Biden, U.S.-Israel military cooperation rapidly expanded to encompass unprecedented joint naval exercises. By March 2021, the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet conducted its first-ever fuel replenishment of an Israeli naval ship. In April 2021, the U.S. fired warning shots at Iranian ships in the Persian Gulf — the first time this had happened in nearly four years. Then, in August 2021, the U.S. 5th Fleet and Israeli naval forces conducted an expansive four-day naval exercise.

    Also in August, for the first time ever, the U.S., Iraq, and Kuwait participated in a joint naval patrol of the Persian Gulf.

    “Any one of these steps may feel small, but in the aggregate, it’s a serious escalation,” Trita Parsi, the former president of the National Iranian American Council and now president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told The Intercept in a phone interview.

    Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also remarked that “those exercises would have been unimaginable, unthinkable, just a few years ago.”

    In January, the U.S. and Israel conducted their largest joint military exercise in history, called Juniper Oak. Six-thousand four hundred American and 1,500 Israeli troops participated in the training exercise, involving more than 140 aircraft, an aircraft carrier, and live fire exercises with over 180,000 pounds of live munitions.

    Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder insisted that “it’s not intended to be focused on any one single adversary or threat; it’s all about working together,” but Israeli officials made clear that the exercise was constructed to simulate a war with Iran.

    “The U.S. very much wants to signal to Iran that even if Washington doesn’t have an appetite for war, we’re willing to support Israel, which does.”

    Notably, Juniper Oak involved exercises in which American aircraft provided mid-air refueling services to Israeli fighter aircraft — a key capability Israel lacks and without which its aircraft cannot reach Iranian targets — and drills involving American B-52 bombers dropping bunker-buster bombs on targets designed to resemble Iranian nuclear sites. Iran responded to these plans with its own military exercise, which Iranian military commander Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid said the country considers a “half war” and even a “war before war.”

    “The U.S. very much wants to signal to Iran that even if Washington doesn’t have an appetite for war, we’re willing to support Israel, which does,” Parsi said.

    While Americans oppose a nuclear Iran, voters strongly prefer a diplomatic solution over war, as illustrated in recent polling.

    “Many in Washington may not feel alarmed by this because of their own conviction that Biden is loath to start a war over this issue,” said Parsi. “That may very well be true, but a very dangerous scenario is being created whose buffer against escalation is a president that may not be president in two years time.”

    The reluctance by top defense officials to discuss the significance of Israel’s move to CENTCOM gives an idea of how politically fraught the matter is. “I’m not excited about getting into the subject you mentioned,” a retired four-star general who worked with Israel while at EUCOM, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject, told The Intercept. “It is now water under the bridge.”

    The Israeli government is more candid than the U.S. about Iran being the focus of these exercises. “In recent months, we have achieved several important goals — the world has joined the fight against Iran,” said then-Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz in a Hebrew-language press release from June. “For this reason, over the past year, I have been promoting a broad plan with my colleagues from the Pentagon and the presidential administration to strengthen cooperation between Israel and the countries of the region under the auspices of the United States and CENTCOM.”

    In June, the Israel Defense Forces announced the conclusion of a three-day strategic-operational meeting between CENTCOM and senior IDF officials.

    “During the discussions, it was agreed that we are at a critical point in time that requires the acceleration of operational plans and cooperation against Iran and its terrorist proxies in the region,” IDF chief of general staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi said.

    As for actual armed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, that has crescendoed as well. “U.S. armed forces have reportedly struck Iran-related targets in Iraq (June 2021) and Syria (February 2021, June 2021, January 2022, and August 2022) in response to attacks by Iran-backed entities on U.S. forces,” a report by the Congressional Research Service states. “U.S. naval forces have interdicted or supported the interdiction of weapons shipments originating from Iran, including in December 2021 and February 2022.”

    The White House, on the other hand, has declined to go into specifics. “Having Israel a part of CENTCOM has just really been, I think, a force multiplier for us, and allowing us to better integrate, organize, share information across the board here in the region has really been — I’ve seen it with my own eyes,” a senior administration official said in a background briefing. “But I won’t speak to any particular CENTCOM assessments or anything like that.”

    The White House also hinted at the military option in its most recent National Security Strategy, the high-level planning document detailing nuclear threats and how to respond to them, which administrations release periodically: “We will pursue diplomacy to ensure that Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon, while remaining postured and prepared to use other means should diplomacy fail.”

    While the current administration still pays lip service to the Iran deal — which Biden promised to reinstate — it appears to be all but over. During a press briefing last month, State Department spokesperson Ned Price was asked if Juniper Oak meant that diplomacy with Iran was off the table. “No, it means that our security commitment to Israel is ironclad,” Price responded.

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    The president appeared to reveal the U.S.’s actual position in November, when asked by an attendee about the Iran deal while on the sidelines of a midterm election rally in Oceanside, California. “It is dead, but we are not gonna announce it,” Biden replied. “Long story.”

    The attendee then told Biden that the Iranian regime doesn’t represent the people. “I know they don’t represent you,” Biden replied, “but they will have a nuclear weapon that they’ll represent.”

    There is no evidence that the Iranian government is pursuing a nuclear weapon. “Iran does not today possess a nuclear weapon and we currently believe it is not pursuing one,” states the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, the Pentagon’s authoritative report on nuclear policy based on the best intelligence available to the U.S. government.

    Should Iran acquire a nuclear weapon, it would certainly be seen as a provocation in the region, touching off a dangerous arms race. Saudi Arabia engaged in quiet negotiations with the Trump administration to develop what it insisted would be a peaceful civilian nuclear program, before Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman let it slip that the country would “follow suit as soon as possible” with an atomic bomb should Iran acquire one. By 2020, the United Arab Emirates became the first Arab nation to build a nuclear power plant, a key step toward building a weapon should it wish to do so.

    From its brutal repression of protesters to the decision to provide Russia with drones for use in its illegal invasion of Ukraine, Iran’s policies likely played a role in the Biden administration’s political calculus around abandoning the deal. Biden’s Iran envoy, Robert Malley, cited both as reasons that the Iran deal had been dropped. (Israel, too, has a friendly relationship with Moscow and has vexed Washington by rejecting its request to aid Ukraine with anti-tank missiles.)

    Malley, who had previously overseen diplomacy with Iran, last week led a delegation to Riyadh to discuss with Arab Gulf allies counterterrorism, maritime security, and, of course, Iran.

    “Without the Iran deal, we’re back to deterrence; we want to show the Iranians that we have a credible military threat and that we’re willing to use it, thinking that this will deter the Iranians from the program,” Parsi said. “It can have that effect, but it can also have the effect of telling the Iranians that the U.S. wants conflict and make them think they need their own deterrence. The truth is that this type of deterrence absent diplomacy can be extremely unstable. It may actually cause the scenario that this strategy is designed to prevent.”

    Three days after Juniper Oak concluded, on January 29 — just as Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived for an official visit in Israel — an Israeli drone bombed a military facility in Iran. U.S. officials scrambled to distance the U.S. from the attack, with the New York Times immediately publishing an article citing U.S. intelligence officials blaming the attack on Israel’s intelligence service, the Mossad.

    But with Israel now under CENTCOM, it’s increasingly likely that Iran won’t distinguish between the two parties, as the Jerusalem Post warned might happen when Trump first ordered the move.

    “The plausible deniability for Israel’s alleged strikes … in the past has worked in CENTCOM’s favor,” the report observed.


    This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Ken Klippenstein.

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